BV1NLRFByEG8 · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:04,679 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 2 00:00:04,679 --> 00:00:07,839 这是大反转的第三节课 3 00:00:13,939 --> 00:00:15,900 首先我会讲解均线缺口 4 00:00:15,900 --> 00:00:18,899 K线注望均线和均线之间 5 00:00:18,899 --> 00:00:21,300 11B缺口注如无特点 6 00:00:21,300 --> 00:00:22,219 在下降趋势中 7 00:00:22,219 --> 00:00:23,839 均线只看到一根K线 8 00:00:23,839 --> 00:00:26,489 完全处于均线的上方 9 00:00:26,969 --> 00:00:28,489 后面如果下跌 10 00:00:28,489 --> 00:00:30,269 通常是最后一段下跌 11 00:00:30,269 --> 00:00:33,939 然后我会讲绝大多数的顶部结构都是双底 12 00:00:33,939 --> 00:00:35,600 价格从一个高点下跌 13 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,399 然后上涨趋势尝试恢复 14 00:00:38,399 --> 00:00:40,219 如果二次上涨失败 15 00:00:40,219 --> 00:00:42,280 就会发生反转 16 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:47,100 大多数的顶部需要测试前期的高点 17 00:00:47,100 --> 00:00:50,359 然后市场才会进入相反的趋势 18 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,799 上涨趋势看看这里发生了什么 19 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:02,320 跌破了上涨趋势线 20 00:01:03,479 --> 00:01:05,159 看这根K线的高点 21 00:01:05,159 --> 00:01:07,040 再看看均线 22 00:01:07,340 --> 00:01:09,560 K线的高点在均线下方 23 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:11,400 空头变得足够强大 24 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,859 能够把K线完全放在均线的下方 25 00:01:15,290 --> 00:01:18,810 这是空头可能掌控市场的早期信号 26 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,060 K线的高点和均线之间存在缺口 27 00:01:23,060 --> 00:01:24,799 它就是均线缺口 28 00:01:24,799 --> 00:01:26,280 K线 29 00:01:30,060 --> 00:01:34,340 可以看到缺口就是K线和均线之间的空间 30 00:01:37,799 --> 00:01:39,060 这是一个警告 31 00:01:39,060 --> 00:01:40,760 表明空头正在变强 32 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,799 他们不但能够让K线收盘在均线的下方 33 00:01:43,799 --> 00:01:46,819 而且整个K线都在均线下方 34 00:01:50,739 --> 00:01:53,019 均线缺口K线之后的上涨 35 00:01:53,019 --> 00:01:55,340 通常是上涨趋势的最后一段 36 00:01:55,340 --> 00:01:57,659 然后市场要么进入震荡区间 37 00:01:57,659 --> 00:01:59,530 要么发生反转 38 00:02:00,859 --> 00:02:04,859 在这个案例中是高点降低的大反转 39 00:02:06,230 --> 00:02:10,389 在那根K线或这根K线下方是做空的机会 40 00:02:14,500 --> 00:02:17,080 交易者知道这仍然是上涨趋势 41 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:22,219 但他们也知道再次上涨之后会有大反转的尝试 42 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:26,159 高点降低 43 00:02:26,159 --> 00:02:27,680 高点也有可能抬高 44 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,039 无论如何或者是完美的 45 00:02:29,039 --> 00:02:30,280 但你看到一根K样高 46 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:31,659 完全在均线下方 47 00:02:31,659 --> 00:02:33,840 你就知道空投正在变强 48 00:02:33,969 --> 00:02:36,129 上涨趋势可能正在转变成 49 00:02:36,129 --> 00:02:39,300 震荡区间或下降趋势啊 50 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:45,500 由于空头在变强 51 00:02:45,500 --> 00:02:46,639 多头在变弱 52 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:51,909 交易者预期市场会进入震荡区间或下降趋势 53 00:02:51,909 --> 00:02:53,669 无论是哪种情况 54 00:02:53,669 --> 00:02:55,030 他们都想在高位 55 00:02:55,030 --> 00:02:57,689 他们期待上涨在前高附近失败 56 00:02:57,689 --> 00:03:00,740 然后进入震荡区间或下降趋势 57 00:03:00,740 --> 00:03:02,659 它们会在上涨时卖出 58 00:03:02,659 --> 00:03:04,810 做空大反转 59 00:03:04,810 --> 00:03:07,009 想要成功需要两件事 60 00:03:07,009 --> 00:03:08,370 首先需要背景 61 00:03:08,370 --> 00:03:12,039 左侧的K线必须提供合理的反转机会 62 00:03:12,199 --> 00:03:13,840 然后需要一个好的信号 63 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:18,060 K线如果想在上涨趋势中做空 64 00:03:18,060 --> 00:03:21,840 你需要一个好的做空信号来增加盈利的概率 65 00:03:25,020 --> 00:03:28,180 上涨趋势空头突破 66 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:30,340 空头很强壮 67 00:03:30,340 --> 00:03:31,560 制造了均线缺口 68 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,560 连续多根K线的高点低于均线 69 00:03:35,330 --> 00:03:37,129 空投现在足够强大 70 00:03:37,129 --> 00:03:39,710 能够将K线完全放在均线下方 71 00:03:39,710 --> 00:03:41,740 在这些缺口K线之后 72 00:03:41,740 --> 00:03:44,379 如果有任何恢复上涨趋势的尝试 73 00:03:44,379 --> 00:03:47,829 很可能就是上涨趋势的最后一段上涨 74 00:03:47,989 --> 00:03:50,068 然后要么进入震荡区间 75 00:03:50,068 --> 00:03:52,389 要么变成下降趋势 76 00:03:53,870 --> 00:03:56,469 当上涨趋势线被跌破时 77 00:03:56,469 --> 00:03:58,930 至少你希望看到一系列阴线 78 00:03:58,930 --> 00:04:00,659 5~10根阴线 79 00:04:00,659 --> 00:04:03,400 你希望反转下跌能碰到均线 80 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,419 但情况并不总是如此 81 00:04:06,818 --> 00:04:08,919 你预期上涨趋势会恢复 82 00:04:08,919 --> 00:04:09,979 这里恢复了 83 00:04:09,979 --> 00:04:11,199 这里又恢复了 84 00:04:11,199 --> 00:04:14,838 但是你预期他在前高附近失败 85 00:04:14,838 --> 00:04:18,379 前面这里是高点降低的大反转机会 86 00:04:18,379 --> 00:04:22,949 左肩头右肩头肩顶注之前先行顶之后 87 00:04:22,949 --> 00:04:25,949 头肩出现了一定是斜高顶降低的大幅下跌 88 00:04:25,949 --> 00:04:28,050 在一系列缺口K线之后 89 00:04:28,050 --> 00:04:31,930 上涨趋势缺口K线通常会导致大反转 90 00:04:31,930 --> 00:04:35,360 之前尝试形成高点降低的大反转 91 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:37,360 空投制造了缺口K线 92 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:39,160 所以再次上涨之后 93 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,879 很可能会之前有头加反转和楔形顶的结构 94 00:04:42,879 --> 00:04:46,480 楔形顶头肩顶多投在高位失败 95 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:47,800 这些K线告诉我们 96 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:49,889 接下来任何形式的上涨 97 00:04:49,889 --> 00:04:52,170 多头很可能会再次失败 98 00:04:52,170 --> 00:04:55,829 现在有连续的顶部尝试在这里筑顶 99 00:04:55,829 --> 00:04:57,559 价格创了新高 100 00:04:57,559 --> 00:05:00,019 可能会在这里再次尝试筑顶 101 00:05:00,019 --> 00:05:02,798 因为空投已经足够强大 102 00:05:03,579 --> 00:05:06,339 他们之前制造了一系列均线缺口K线 103 00:05:06,339 --> 00:05:08,538 当交易者看到价格上涨时 104 00:05:08,538 --> 00:05:09,778 他们会考虑做空 105 00:05:09,778 --> 00:05:11,798 他们会在这个阳线下方做空吗 106 00:05:11,798 --> 00:05:13,459 不会这是多头的惊喜 107 00:05:13,459 --> 00:05:15,778 K他突破了头肩顶的右肩 108 00:05:16,180 --> 00:05:18,819 大概率至少会有两段上涨 109 00:05:18,819 --> 00:05:20,199 一回调 110 00:05:20,199 --> 00:05:22,139 二在第二段上涨之后 111 00:05:22,139 --> 00:05:24,240 交易者会考虑做空 112 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,839 尤其是如果有一个这么好的做空信号 113 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:29,439 K线阴线收在最低 114 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,839 上涨趋势回调测试均线 115 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,360 连续六根阴线是空头力量的体现 116 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:41,360 其他空投会考虑跟着卖出 117 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,509 头肩顶高点降低的大反转 118 00:05:44,550 --> 00:05:46,689 在这里或这里卖出是合理的 119 00:05:46,689 --> 00:05:48,370 但是做空失败了 120 00:05:48,370 --> 00:05:50,069 现在出现了连续的筑顶 121 00:05:50,069 --> 00:05:51,959 尝试在这里尝试筑顶 122 00:05:51,959 --> 00:05:52,899 楔形顶 123 00:05:52,899 --> 00:05:56,079 尝试在这里筑顶高点降低的大反转 124 00:05:56,079 --> 00:05:58,560 现在再次尝试筑顶 125 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,279 空投在高点降低的大反转结构 126 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,769 做空之后变成了高两色框框 127 00:06:05,769 --> 00:06:07,829 注两段式回调后 128 00:06:07,829 --> 00:06:09,709 等一段下跌反弹 129 00:06:09,709 --> 00:06:12,120 上涨趋势可能会恢复 130 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,800 但是空头制造了均线缺口K线 131 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,079 通常当上涨趋势中第一次出现均线下跌 132 00:06:18,079 --> 00:06:20,509 上涨趋势还会尝试恢复 133 00:06:20,509 --> 00:06:24,230 所以当价格从这些缺口K线反转上涨时 134 00:06:24,230 --> 00:06:27,870 多头在前期卖出的空头会在这里离场 135 00:06:29,139 --> 00:06:31,259 而多头会买入压住 136 00:06:31,259 --> 00:06:33,500 至少还有一段上涨 137 00:06:36,899 --> 00:06:38,759 你可以重新画趋势线 138 00:06:38,759 --> 00:06:42,629 用这个低点和那个低点突破了新的趋势线 139 00:06:42,629 --> 00:06:44,730 当价格测试前期高点 140 00:06:44,730 --> 00:06:46,569 然后反转下跌的时候 141 00:06:46,569 --> 00:06:49,639 交易者会入这里略微高于前期高点 142 00:06:49,639 --> 00:06:51,680 所以是高点抬高的大反转 143 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,360 并且有一个合理的做空信号 144 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:57,480 K线背景及左侧的K线支持反转的可能性 145 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,120 并且有信号K线 146 00:07:04,959 --> 00:07:07,480 大多数顶部都是双顶结构的变体 147 00:07:09,439 --> 00:07:10,649 这里有一个顶部 148 00:07:10,649 --> 00:07:12,189 空头尝试反转 149 00:07:12,189 --> 00:07:14,410 第一次反转通常是小反转 150 00:07:14,410 --> 00:07:16,129 然后上涨趋势恢复 151 00:07:16,129 --> 00:07:18,089 如果有第二次反转下跌 152 00:07:18,089 --> 00:07:19,750 那么变成相反趋势 153 00:07:19,750 --> 00:07:23,170 也就是大反转的概率会更高 154 00:07:30,300 --> 00:07:31,519 上涨趋势 155 00:07:31,519 --> 00:07:33,899 然后下跌反转 156 00:07:34,559 --> 00:07:36,439 他在测试前期的高点 157 00:07:36,439 --> 00:07:38,480 所以他们是一个双顶 158 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:40,480 高点略微降低 159 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,160 然后价格创了新高 160 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,860 更高的高点再次反转下跌 161 00:07:45,300 --> 00:07:46,639 这是一个双顶 162 00:07:46,639 --> 00:07:49,389 他在测试之前趋势的高点 163 00:07:49,389 --> 00:07:52,430 所以高点抬高的大反转是双顶的一种 164 00:07:52,430 --> 00:07:55,389 只不过第二个高点略微更高 165 00:07:55,709 --> 00:07:58,709 高点降低的大反转也是双顶的一种 166 00:07:58,709 --> 00:08:01,029 其中第二个高点更低 167 00:08:01,029 --> 00:08:02,930 偶尔你会看到完美的双顶 168 00:08:02,930 --> 00:08:04,904 他们很少见 169 00:08:05,689 --> 00:08:08,290 这个有一点接近完美的双顶了 170 00:08:08,290 --> 00:08:10,668 但是右边的高点略高 171 00:08:10,668 --> 00:08:12,649 完美的双顶很少见 172 00:08:12,649 --> 00:08:16,220 因为两个价格完全相同是不寻常的 173 00:08:16,420 --> 00:08:18,160 通常会稍微高一点 174 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:20,399 高点抬高或稍微低一点 175 00:08:20,399 --> 00:08:22,379 高点降低 176 00:08:24,740 --> 00:08:28,459 高点降低的大反转是双顶的一种 177 00:08:29,170 --> 00:08:33,090 高点抬高的大反转也是双顶的一种 178 00:08:33,690 --> 00:08:37,250 这也是在尝试向上突破头肩顶 179 00:08:37,909 --> 00:08:39,389 左肩头 180 00:08:39,389 --> 00:08:42,279 右肩尝试向下跌破 181 00:08:42,279 --> 00:08:43,600 跌破了颈线 182 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:44,759 但立刻反转 183 00:08:44,759 --> 00:08:46,679 上涨两段上涨 184 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:48,259 在第二段上涨之后 185 00:08:48,259 --> 00:08:50,919 交易者会考虑做空 186 00:08:53,259 --> 00:08:54,419 原则是一样的 187 00:08:55,820 --> 00:08:58,480 上涨趋势尝试反转下跌 188 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:02,029 上涨趋势恢复测试前期高点 189 00:09:02,629 --> 00:09:05,710 交易者会期待价格再次反转下跌 190 00:09:05,710 --> 00:09:09,009 第一次反转下跌通常是小反转 191 00:09:09,009 --> 00:09:11,070 变成震荡区间 192 00:09:12,169 --> 00:09:16,169 但第二次反转有一定概率变成大反转 193 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:21,039 这里有40%的概率会进入下降趋势 194 00:09:21,039 --> 00:09:24,320 或至少是下没有变成下降趋势 195 00:09:25,019 --> 00:09:26,440 上涨趋势恢复 196 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:27,139 同样 197 00:09:27,139 --> 00:09:30,899 40%的概率进入下降趋势或下跌波段 198 00:09:30,899 --> 00:09:33,100 这次空投成功了 199 00:09:35,740 --> 00:09:37,360 而大反转的底部 200 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,139 它们都是双底结构的变体 201 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:48,120 下降趋势多头尝试向上突破 202 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:49,799 测试了前期的低点 203 00:09:49,799 --> 00:09:52,399 并从一个较高的低点反转上涨 204 00:09:52,399 --> 00:09:54,519 你可以说它是下降趋势 205 00:09:54,519 --> 00:09:56,840 潜在的末端雄奇被跌破了 206 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,399 然后再反转上涨 207 00:10:00,779 --> 00:10:03,019 他们形成了双底 208 00:10:03,539 --> 00:10:05,120 尝试反转上涨 209 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:06,259 失败了 210 00:10:06,259 --> 00:10:08,730 再次尝试反转上涨 211 00:10:08,730 --> 00:10:10,990 所以这是对那个低点的测试 212 00:10:10,990 --> 00:10:13,450 低点降低了的双底 213 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,559 多头尝试反转但失败了 214 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:18,980 下降趋势恢复 215 00:10:18,980 --> 00:10:21,120 但没有持续多久 216 00:10:21,259 --> 00:10:23,620 他只是测试了前期的低点 217 00:10:23,620 --> 00:10:25,620 然后再次尝试反转 218 00:10:25,620 --> 00:10:27,559 多头的力量高点略微降低 219 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,539 也是一个双底 220 00:10:32,379 --> 00:10:33,980 低点降低的大反转 221 00:10:36,220 --> 00:10:38,539 低点抬高的大反转 222 00:10:38,990 --> 00:10:43,659 他和他组成了双底下降趋势中新的低点 223 00:10:43,659 --> 00:10:45,000 他测试了它 224 00:10:46,159 --> 00:10:47,700 它们组成了双底 225 00:10:47,700 --> 00:10:50,159 低点略微抬高 226 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:53,360 这个也是一样 227 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,639 空投再次尝试恢复下降趋势 228 00:10:57,769 --> 00:11:02,389 你可以说他和这个低点或这个低点组成了双底 229 00:11:02,389 --> 00:11:03,990 还有一个更大的低点 230 00:11:03,990 --> 00:11:04,950 抬高的大反转 231 00:11:04,950 --> 00:11:08,029 结构下降趋势非常强的 232 00:11:08,029 --> 00:11:09,269 多头突破 233 00:11:09,269 --> 00:11:10,950 空头尝试反转 234 00:11:10,950 --> 00:11:13,750 但无法跌回前期的低点 235 00:11:14,100 --> 00:11:15,919 这是一个大的双底 236 00:11:15,919 --> 00:11:17,360 低点抬高 237 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:19,700 但他仍然是双底 238 00:11:24,700 --> 00:11:27,340 在这里做多的胜率更高 239 00:11:29,740 --> 00:11:32,039 因为这个突破非常强势 240 00:11:32,039 --> 00:11:34,419 市场很可能会处于震荡区间 241 00:11:34,419 --> 00:11:36,019 不再是下降趋势 242 00:11:36,019 --> 00:11:38,600 甚至是上涨趋势的开始 243 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,340 多头开始制造阳线 244 00:11:42,340 --> 00:11:45,799 大概率这个空头突破是失败的 245 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:50,539 市场没有跌破这个强势的多头突破的起涨点 246 00:11:50,539 --> 00:11:52,159 空投突破失败 247 00:11:52,159 --> 00:11:53,399 再次失败 248 00:11:53,399 --> 00:11:54,860 多头会买入 249 00:11:54,860 --> 00:11:57,440 压住这个大阴线是一个空头陷阱 250 00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:59,500 诱骗交易者入场做空 251 00:11:59,500 --> 00:12:00,419 新的低点 252 00:12:00,419 --> 00:12:01,480 高于这个低点 253 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:02,720 高于那个低点 254 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:04,820 高于这个低点是合理的 255 00:12:04,820 --> 00:12:06,409 买入机会 256 00:12:06,690 --> 00:12:10,009 有较高的概率可以抓到上涨波段 257 00:12:13,700 --> 00:12:15,039 原则是一样的 258 00:12:15,039 --> 00:12:20,169 这里这里这里这些都是大反转的尝试 259 00:12:20,169 --> 00:12:22,610 市场在测试下降趋势的低点 260 00:12:22,610 --> 00:12:26,970 并决定到底是跌破新低还是反转上涨 261 00:12:28,259 --> 00:12:30,259 测试低点反转上涨 262 00:12:30,259 --> 00:12:32,620 测试低点反转上涨 263 00:12:32,620 --> 00:12:36,139 测试低点反转上涨 264 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:39,419 上涨趋势 265 00:12:39,419 --> 00:12:42,039 价格跌破上涨通道 266 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:47,440 你可以说他是双顶 267 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,960 实际上他比他要更高一些 268 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:51,759 无论你叫他什么 269 00:12:51,759 --> 00:12:54,200 这是一个大反转的尝试 270 00:12:55,389 --> 00:12:57,350 双顶很少是完美的 271 00:12:57,350 --> 00:13:00,110 通常会略高或略低 272 00:13:00,789 --> 00:13:02,049 有时低很多 273 00:13:02,049 --> 00:13:03,490 有时高很多 274 00:13:03,490 --> 00:13:06,870 但这是一个高点抬高的大反转 275 00:13:07,759 --> 00:13:12,139 上涨趋势第一次下跌反转大概率只是小反转 276 00:13:12,139 --> 00:13:14,169 上涨趋势继续 277 00:13:14,330 --> 00:13:16,889 第一次下跌反转只是小反转 278 00:13:16,889 --> 00:13:18,889 变成牛起或震荡区间 279 00:13:18,889 --> 00:13:21,889 交易者预期上涨趋势恢复 280 00:13:22,450 --> 00:13:24,090 但他们会做好准备 281 00:13:24,090 --> 00:13:27,289 等多头在前高附近失败的时候 282 00:13:27,539 --> 00:13:29,940 在反转下跌时卖出做空 283 00:13:29,940 --> 00:13:31,679 因为那可能是一个大反转 284 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:35,419 有40%的概率可以抓到一个下跌波段 285 00:13:37,980 --> 00:13:40,539 同样你说他是高点抬高的 286 00:13:40,539 --> 00:13:41,419 反转也好 287 00:13:41,419 --> 00:13:42,559 双顶也好 288 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,269 重要的是多头尝试恢复趋势 289 00:13:45,269 --> 00:13:48,590 然后在前期高点附近再次失败 290 00:13:48,590 --> 00:13:50,149 所以这是一个双顶 291 00:13:50,149 --> 00:13:52,269 这是做空的机会 292 00:13:53,820 --> 00:13:57,299 上涨趋势市场横盘了很多K线 293 00:13:57,299 --> 00:14:00,049 这里甚至跌破了均线下方 294 00:14:00,049 --> 00:14:02,090 空投制造出了均线缺口 295 00:14:02,090 --> 00:14:05,210 K线K线的高点和均线之间有缺口 296 00:14:05,210 --> 00:14:07,730 是空头强势的信号 297 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,899 这里的回调没有完全碰到均线 298 00:14:13,899 --> 00:14:17,639 尽管从最高点开始回调了11根K线 299 00:14:17,639 --> 00:14:20,578 窄震荡区间持续了11根K线 300 00:14:20,578 --> 00:14:22,399 市场现在是中性的 301 00:14:22,399 --> 00:14:25,278 但交易者预期上涨趋势会恢复 302 00:14:25,278 --> 00:14:27,658 事实确实如此 303 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,139 形成了双顶大反转的结构 304 00:14:33,259 --> 00:14:36,139 我无法判断这个糕点是否不确定他是略高 305 00:14:36,139 --> 00:14:37,299 两个高点低完全一样 306 00:14:37,299 --> 00:14:38,960 就简单的叫他双顶吧 307 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:40,559 是合理的做空机会 308 00:14:40,559 --> 00:14:43,740 然而你必须保持左边没有太多的麦压 309 00:14:43,740 --> 00:14:46,399 只有两根不错的阴线和一个窄震荡 310 00:14:46,399 --> 00:14:48,480 甚至没有回调到均线 311 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:50,779 做空的胜率比较低 312 00:14:51,059 --> 00:14:54,019 发生大反转的概率可能不到40% 313 00:14:55,139 --> 00:14:56,519 最终大反转了 314 00:14:56,519 --> 00:14:59,490 但是在趋势反转下跌之前 315 00:14:59,769 --> 00:15:03,210 有强势的大阳线尝试恢复上涨趋势 316 00:15:04,490 --> 00:15:06,580 大多数在这里做空的空头 317 00:15:06,580 --> 00:15:08,340 可能会在这根K线上方 318 00:15:08,340 --> 00:15:10,139 连上涨趋势中的均线缺口 319 00:15:10,139 --> 00:15:10,679 K线 320 00:15:10,679 --> 00:15:13,720 他们预期上涨趋势的高点会被测试 321 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:17,629 然而他们做好再次做空的准备 322 00:15:20,179 --> 00:15:22,779 小双顶尝试恢复上涨 323 00:15:22,779 --> 00:15:24,659 第二次尝试恢复上涨 324 00:15:24,659 --> 00:15:27,990 交易者会在前一根K线的低点下方卖出 325 00:15:27,990 --> 00:15:30,909 如果多头两次尝试上涨失败 326 00:15:30,909 --> 00:15:33,730 也许价格会朝另一个方向移动 327 00:15:33,730 --> 00:15:35,350 尤其是因为背景支持 328 00:15:35,350 --> 00:15:36,950 反转的发生 329 00:15:37,110 --> 00:15:39,070 已经突破了上涨趋势线 330 00:15:39,070 --> 00:15:40,149 并且有缺口 331 00:15:40,149 --> 00:15:43,710 K线一个完全在均线下方的K线 332 00:15:43,710 --> 00:15:46,504 这是空头正在变强的信号 333 00:15:48,279 --> 00:15:50,840 不是一个很好的做空信号 334 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:52,440 K线只是一个十字线 335 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,120 这也不是一个很好的做空信号 336 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:54,679 K线 337 00:15:54,679 --> 00:15:58,129 因为一些空头会在那个阳线的低点下方卖出 338 00:15:58,169 --> 00:15:59,570 因为有双顶的结构 339 00:15:59,570 --> 00:16:01,490 一些空头会在阴线下方卖出 340 00:16:01,490 --> 00:16:04,129 比如在这个双顶的颈线下方 341 00:16:04,309 --> 00:16:06,710 可以看到很多交易者在卖出 342 00:16:06,710 --> 00:16:10,629 很多空投在这个阴线下方挂了突破卖单 343 00:16:16,259 --> 00:16:18,720 这些不是高胜率的做空机会 344 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:20,980 胜率大约是40% 345 00:16:20,980 --> 00:16:24,940 然而一旦你看到这些连续一系列阴线 346 00:16:25,059 --> 00:16:28,539 同样我可以在这里画一条上涨趋势线 347 00:16:28,539 --> 00:16:30,580 在这里也跌破了这个起涨点 348 00:16:30,580 --> 00:16:34,419 这也是高点降低的大反转的合理做空点 349 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,759 一旦你看到三根阴线收在最低 350 00:16:37,759 --> 00:16:41,379 这根阴线收盘在这个低点下方 351 00:16:41,700 --> 00:16:44,700 收盘在过去30根K线的低点下方 352 00:16:44,700 --> 00:16:48,779 市场已经处于至少会有小的第二段下跌 353 00:16:49,379 --> 00:16:51,419 这里最终是大的第二段下跌 354 00:16:51,419 --> 00:16:53,820 在你看到大阴线突破之后再做空 355 00:16:53,820 --> 00:16:55,328 有更高的胜率 356 00:16:55,328 --> 00:16:57,469 每当你做高胜率的交易时 357 00:16:57,469 --> 00:16:59,730 止损通常也更远 358 00:16:59,730 --> 00:17:02,850 高胜率的做空机会通常在空头突破 359 00:17:02,850 --> 00:17:05,000 这意味着止损会比较远 360 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:06,160 这就是代价 361 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:08,380 你可以选择低概率的做空机会 362 00:17:08,380 --> 00:17:09,380 风险低 363 00:17:09,380 --> 00:17:10,799 或者你也可以等待 364 00:17:10,799 --> 00:17:15,079 当出现大阴线跌破市场明显看跌的时候再卖出 365 00:17:15,079 --> 00:17:16,940 你赚钱的概率变高了 366 00:17:16,940 --> 00:17:18,769 但止损也更远了 367 00:17:18,769 --> 00:17:20,589 在这里卖出也是一样 368 00:17:20,589 --> 00:17:23,049 你可以在任何一根阴线的收盘开仓 369 00:17:23,049 --> 00:17:26,019 很大的概率至少还会再下跌一些 370 00:17:26,019 --> 00:17:29,859 但高胜率的代价是止损更远 371 00:17:31,279 --> 00:17:33,319 盈亏比变差了 372 00:17:35,700 --> 00:17:36,859 非常强的空头 373 00:17:36,859 --> 00:17:38,759 突破之后有一些反弹 374 00:17:38,759 --> 00:17:39,859 好的做空信号 375 00:17:39,859 --> 00:17:41,489 K线好的做空机会 376 00:17:41,489 --> 00:17:45,249 止损放在这个高点或这个高点上方 377 00:17:47,779 --> 00:17:48,940 双顶大反转 378 00:17:50,180 --> 00:17:51,539 高点降低的大反转 379 00:17:52,619 --> 00:17:53,680 要想反转 380 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,509 你需要看到空头强势的信号 381 00:17:59,259 --> 00:18:02,859 空投必须让交易者相信他们足够强大 382 00:18:02,859 --> 00:18:04,299 能够掌控市场 383 00:18:04,299 --> 00:18:06,660 并制造一个下跌波段 384 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,880 回调到均线附近 385 00:18:10,409 --> 00:18:12,868 这是空投变强的第一个信号 386 00:18:12,868 --> 00:18:17,548 空投暂时控制了8~10根K线还不错 387 00:18:17,548 --> 00:18:19,684 但没有太多卖压 388 00:18:21,940 --> 00:18:23,619 跌破上涨趋势线 389 00:18:23,619 --> 00:18:25,970 这是空头强势的信号 390 00:18:25,970 --> 00:18:28,670 这根上涨趋势线也被跌破了 391 00:18:28,670 --> 00:18:30,930 又一个空头强势的信号 392 00:18:30,930 --> 00:18:33,529 这里同时也跌破了均线 393 00:18:33,529 --> 00:18:37,369 这里这里和这里收盘价都低于均线 394 00:18:37,369 --> 00:18:38,789 三次收盘低于均线 395 00:18:38,789 --> 00:18:41,089 也是空头强势的信号 396 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,440 如果卖压不是特别大 397 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,079 大概率就只是小反转 398 00:18:50,579 --> 00:18:52,579 即使这个也没有太多卖压 399 00:18:53,779 --> 00:18:55,240 尽管有一根大阴线 400 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:56,539 但只是小反转 401 00:18:56,539 --> 00:18:59,539 上涨趋势恢复变成震荡区间 402 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,500 然而两根大阴线三次收盘低于均线 403 00:19:06,500 --> 00:19:08,279 现在又有一根均线缺口 404 00:19:08,279 --> 00:19:11,329 K线空头正在变强 405 00:19:11,779 --> 00:19:12,980 上涨失败 406 00:19:12,980 --> 00:19:14,299 然后被大反转 407 00:19:14,299 --> 00:19:16,380 下跌的概率变高了 408 00:19:19,740 --> 00:19:21,339 虽然说概率变高了 409 00:19:21,339 --> 00:19:23,019 但也只有40% 410 00:19:23,019 --> 00:19:25,259 直到出现这个和这个 411 00:19:25,259 --> 00:19:27,759 此时至少有60%的概率 412 00:19:27,759 --> 00:19:29,039 市场还会继续下跌 413 00:19:29,039 --> 00:19:29,519 在这里 414 00:19:29,519 --> 00:19:31,759 任何一根阴线的收盘开仓做空 415 00:19:31,759 --> 00:19:34,440 并且正确的管理至少60%的概率 416 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,279 你可以赚钱 417 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,119 所有K线图都有两个变量 418 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,130 横坐标和纵坐标 419 00:19:44,490 --> 00:19:46,230 通常横坐标是时间 420 00:19:46,230 --> 00:19:48,289 纵坐标是价格 421 00:19:52,059 --> 00:19:54,720 空投可以通过让价格快速下跌 422 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,099 来展现自己的强大 423 00:19:58,230 --> 00:20:01,029 但他们也可以通过时间来展示强势 424 00:20:01,029 --> 00:20:02,470 控制很多K线 425 00:20:02,470 --> 00:20:05,430 不让多头恢复上涨趋势 426 00:20:06,619 --> 00:20:09,259 这也足以形成大反转 427 00:20:10,839 --> 00:20:13,680 空投展现出了足够的强势 428 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,759 窄震荡区间超过十根K线 429 00:20:18,759 --> 00:20:21,039 尽管没有怎么下跌 430 00:20:22,819 --> 00:20:27,099 但至少空头在很多根K线中阻止了上涨趋势 431 00:20:27,099 --> 00:20:31,019 有时这会导致大反转的发生 432 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,720 空投可以通过价格变化来展现力量 433 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,339 让价格快速下跌 434 00:20:39,339 --> 00:20:41,460 比如这里和这里 435 00:20:41,779 --> 00:20:45,619 空投的强势体现在时间上控制很多K线 436 00:20:45,619 --> 00:20:47,900 阻止上涨趋势 437 00:20:48,259 --> 00:20:50,640 也体现在价格上快速下跌 438 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,619 很多大阴线 439 00:20:56,319 --> 00:20:57,859 在上涨趋势中 440 00:20:57,859 --> 00:21:02,759 你应该在抛售发生之前就把上涨趋势线画好 441 00:21:04,220 --> 00:21:05,920 这条线被跌破了 442 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:07,619 左边是很窄的上涨通道 443 00:21:07,619 --> 00:21:10,500 任何反转大概率都是小反转 444 00:21:11,039 --> 00:21:12,500 也就是牛骑 445 00:21:12,500 --> 00:21:14,940 然后上涨趋势会恢复 446 00:21:14,940 --> 00:21:17,809 一旦价格从某个低点反转上涨 447 00:21:17,809 --> 00:21:19,210 你就可以继续划线 448 00:21:19,210 --> 00:21:22,089 这里有两个反转上涨的低点可以划线 449 00:21:22,089 --> 00:21:23,230 这里有一个低点 450 00:21:23,230 --> 00:21:25,599 你也可以连接这两个低点划线 451 00:21:25,599 --> 00:21:29,200 然后趋势线被空头跌破了 452 00:21:31,559 --> 00:21:33,500 趋势线的作用是提醒 453 00:21:33,500 --> 00:21:35,559 如果它被跌破 454 00:21:36,279 --> 00:21:40,299 然后上涨趋势恢复可能会发生大反转 455 00:21:40,299 --> 00:21:42,200 如果空头足够强大 456 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:42,940 能够跌破 457 00:21:42,940 --> 00:21:46,259 那么他们的力量也许足以制造大反转 458 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:49,740 理想情况下 459 00:21:49,740 --> 00:21:51,500 你希望一个非常大的跌破 460 00:21:51,500 --> 00:21:53,000 远低于趋势线 461 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,720 说明空头非常强大 462 00:21:57,190 --> 00:21:59,710 而且增加了上涨趋势恢复失败 463 00:21:59,710 --> 00:22:01,950 然后大反转的概率 464 00:22:08,220 --> 00:22:10,200 上涨趋势想要恢复 465 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:11,720 但开始反转下跌 466 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,859 在测试前期高点之后迅速反转下跌 467 00:22:17,500 --> 00:22:21,819 此时连续三根大阴线已经是大反转了 468 00:22:22,099 --> 00:22:24,180 市场大概率已经处于下降趋势 469 00:22:24,180 --> 00:22:27,619 到了这里显然处于下降趋势 470 00:22:31,079 --> 00:22:33,200 双顶大反转 471 00:22:33,549 --> 00:22:35,049 你可以在这里做空 472 00:22:35,049 --> 00:22:36,890 此时的胜率比较低 473 00:22:36,890 --> 00:22:39,789 虽然空头暂时控制了8~10根K线 474 00:22:40,789 --> 00:22:42,750 但没有什么大阴线 475 00:22:43,630 --> 00:22:45,769 他们在时间上控制了市场 476 00:22:45,769 --> 00:22:48,470 但没有在价格上控制 477 00:22:53,140 --> 00:22:56,099 每当有双顶或高点抬高的大反转 478 00:22:57,259 --> 00:22:59,150 然后出现大阴线跌破 479 00:22:59,150 --> 00:23:01,730 通常后续是高点降低的大反转 480 00:23:01,730 --> 00:23:03,230 以及第二段下跌 481 00:23:03,230 --> 00:23:06,069 注这是第二反弹到一个更低的足够强势 482 00:23:06,069 --> 00:23:06,630 然后再下 483 00:23:06,630 --> 00:23:09,789 所以他大概率还会有至少一段下跌 484 00:23:11,579 --> 00:23:15,500 那个更低的高点是又一次做空的机会 485 00:23:19,559 --> 00:23:22,039 这节课我讲了均线缺口K线 486 00:23:22,039 --> 00:23:24,599 比如如果在上涨趋势中 487 00:23:24,599 --> 00:23:26,630 空头制造了反转下跌 488 00:23:26,630 --> 00:23:29,869 并且把一根K线完全放在均线下方 489 00:23:29,869 --> 00:23:30,990 K线的高点 490 00:23:30,990 --> 00:23:32,430 在均线下方 491 00:23:32,430 --> 00:23:35,430 K线的高点和均线之间存在缺口 492 00:23:35,430 --> 00:23:37,638 这是空头强势的信号 493 00:23:37,638 --> 00:23:39,378 最后一段上涨之后 494 00:23:39,378 --> 00:23:41,719 空投会尝试进行大反转 495 00:23:41,719 --> 00:23:45,199 注需要上涨在前高附近失败 496 00:23:46,210 --> 00:23:49,730 然后我讲了大多数顶部都是双顶结构 497 00:23:51,170 --> 00:23:53,130 高点是否抬高并不重要 498 00:23:54,289 --> 00:23:56,089 都是双顶的变体 499 00:23:56,329 --> 00:23:58,630 大多数底部都是双底结构 500 00:23:58,630 --> 00:24:01,849 大多数大反转的底部都是双底结构 501 00:24:01,849 --> 00:24:04,240 可以是完美的双底很少见 502 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,359 可以是更低或更高的低点 503 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:12,279 总之大多数大反转都来自于某种双底的结构 504 00:24:16,460 --> 00:24:17,900 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 505 00:24:17,900 --> 00:24:21,740 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程大反转的第三节课 506 00:24:21,740 --> 00:24:23,359 就先讲到这里
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