【UNRIVALED INVESTING】25倍市盈率是机会还是陷阱？

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就在本周早些时候

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吉姆·克莱默表示他对自己的微软持仓非常担忧

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甚至直言我对持有微软感到非常担忧

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并考虑是否应该卖出部分甚至全部

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或许这是一个逆势信号

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现在正是买入时机

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因为这就是内部人士在做的事

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看看微软的一位董事

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他最近刚买入近两百万美元

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这是内部人士的操作

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来自Flash的Iq报告

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所以我正在关注这个情况

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看到微软股价今年以来下跌了约15%

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这让我在想微软是否被低估

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是什么原因导致股价承压

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我们将讨论微软的商业模式

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并探讨投资者的一些关键担忧

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因为公司正在经历业务转型

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我个人的结论是不会急于买入微软

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毕竟我认为有更好的投资机会

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稍后我们还会详细讨论

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如果你喜欢教育类投资内容

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请务必点赞支持

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点击订阅按钮

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当我们分析微软时

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你知道吗

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这家公司到底做什么

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首先令人惊叹的是

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在最新财季

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他们实现了800亿美元营收

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同比增长15%

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对于一家万亿级公司

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万亿级巨头

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仍能保持

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这样的增长

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个位数增长

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这实在令人印象深刻

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且增长覆盖三大业务板块

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生产力与业务流程

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思考微软办公套件、领英、Dynamics 365

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365

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这是企业软件业务

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然后是智能云业务

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即Azure

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及各类服务器产品

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再想想人工智能

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你知道的

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正在构建的基础设施

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最后是个人计算设备

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也就是Windows系统

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游戏

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Xbox 和搜索必应

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当你观察这些不同的驱动因素时

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认识到它们已被划分为三大细分领域

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现实情况是其中一个占比超过半数

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然而在盈利能力方面

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而这正是生产力与业务流程

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企业及消费者付费使用的工具

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电子邮件、文档

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协作

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企业软件在最新季度收入超200亿美元

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而其合并后运营利润约为38亿美元

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因此必须认识到一个重要细分领域

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并非所有细分领域都

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你知道的

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生产力与业务流程占比超半数核心利润

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下一个关键驱动因素

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占业务超三分之一

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是智能云

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微软再次通过销售服务器基础设施

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云托管

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向企业和开发者提供AI数据服务（如Azure和SQL Server解决方案）

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然后是剩余部分

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即

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你知道的

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业务占比不足20%

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是Windows授权

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Xbox游戏

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Surface设备

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以及

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广告

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主要来自

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你可以看到他们已拆分到各个产品线

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无法看到具体金额

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但能看出整体趋势

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也能看出这家企业

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已非二十年前的微软

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如今Windows授权不再是主要驱动力

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最新周期仅实现1%营收增长

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真正推动

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业务增长的是AI相关领域

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我们将在视频末尾详细讨论

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同时云业务正以惊人速度扩张

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微软云

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Microsoft 365产品增长17%-20%

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9%

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甚至LinkedIn

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你知道的

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社交网络平台增长超10%

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Dynamic 365

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所以

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企业软件业务增长约20%

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因此整体增长非常 impressive，接近40%

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显然正在抢占市场份额

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你知道会有新作品推出

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这可能是成功也可能是失败

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但这确实反映出个人业务板块有些疲软

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而云业务表现强劲

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其核心软件解决方案同样表现优异

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所以这

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你知道

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这

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这是一个值得观察的有趣故事

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但随后你开始思考

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好的

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那么为什么股价承压

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为什么吉姆·克莱默担忧

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嗯，我认为存在许多

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不同的动态因素

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这些对投资者至关重要

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因为公司正在经历类似阶段转变

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之前是高投资回报率的业务

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非常轻资产的业务

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无需大量再投资

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而现在业务面临自由现金流显著下降

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你可以看到这一点

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可以看到他们的运营情况

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现金流持续增长

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但他们正在为AI革命进行投资

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你可以看到分红与资本支出之间的平衡

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最近一个季度分红约70亿美元

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以及资本支出

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约为300亿美元

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实际上正在消耗

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他们的现金流

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因此报告的盈利

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大幅增长

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但这些收益

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无法通过

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你知道

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股票回购和分红返还

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无法大幅启动回购

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在当前投资水平下

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我认为这是首要因素

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即自由现金流正在下降

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同比来看

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现在有些投资者可能说

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丹尼尔

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别担心

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这是短期投资

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但我认为投资者，这属于更大的不确定性的一部分

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微软能否从这项巨额投资中获得回报

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或者这可能导致一个

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你知道产能过剩

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你知道这里存在不确定性，比如

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我们正在建设以满足这一需求

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但我们能否从中获得预期的经济效益

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而且从根本上说，正如之前提到的

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这是一家不同的公司

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就在几年前

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他们全年资本支出不到三十亿美元

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而现在一个季度就接近三十到四十亿美元

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这标志着资本密集度发生了巨大变化

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资本密集度

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类型的密集型业务

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因此当你经历这种转变时

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需要将现金流重新投入实体资产

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可能需要更低的估值倍数

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因为存在更少的

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你知道关于

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能否从投资的资本中获得有吸引力的回报

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所以存在更多这种因素

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同时当你拥有大量自由现金流时

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嗯

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假设每一美元收入都转化为自由现金流

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你可以将这些资金重新投资于

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例如进行股票回购或发放股息

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因此可以说

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我仍能保持高速增长

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但这是百分之百的自由现金流

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而且我认为没有问题以当前估值买入

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我稍后会提到的微软

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但我要说明的是

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现金流实际归我所有

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而非进行这项

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你知道的

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这项革命性技术的巨额投资

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提供人工智能基础设施

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最后一点是微软面临压力的原因

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除了其AI投资经济回报的不确定性

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再加上微软整体业务的转型阶段

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还有这种不确定性，即

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当我们

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当初开始讨论这个问题时

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我们说

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某一业务板块贡献了超过50%的利润

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且属于软件业务

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你知道的

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他们的微软办公软件

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三百六十五套软件

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这是一款传统软件

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作为即服务型模型

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拥有非常高的持续收入利润率

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嗯

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你知道这属于高利润率业务

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但如果你真的进入AI时代的话

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人们仍然需要微软的完整产品组合

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是否可能不需要那么多许可证

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是否可能AI模型本身使用开源方案从而完全替代

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削减掉这些环节

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未来各种工作流程可能会发生改变

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随着智能化程度提升

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我认为未来几年存在更多不确定性

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我不认为这是即时威胁

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但投资者确实对此表示担忧

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正如软件行业近期大幅回调

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退一步看

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尽管存在担忧

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我认为有必要认识到

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微软仍是卓越公司

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我意思是

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可以看到公司从两百亿美元营收

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几年前

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如今接近三百亿美元

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其盈利能力令人惊叹

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去年营收已达一百亿美元

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今年可能接近一百二十亿美元

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同时存在一些疑问

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这些服务器投资是否合理

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是否折旧比例不匹配

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这也是重要因素之一

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这就是华尔街惩罚微软的原因

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这种预期

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随着硬件投资增加

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需要制定折旧计划

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这将影响利润率

237
00:09:34,730 --> 00:09:36,169
你已经开始看到这一点

238
00:09:36,169 --> 00:09:39,208
利润率再次受到影响

239
00:09:39,208 --> 00:09:41,249
这是转型阶段的一部分

240
00:09:41,249 --> 00:09:42,808
从轻资产模式

241
00:09:42,808 --> 00:09:44,818
超高利润率转向

242
00:09:44,818 --> 00:09:45,499
你知道的

243
00:09:45,499 --> 00:09:46,658
仍将保持高利润率

244
00:09:46,658 --> 00:09:47,078
我推测

245
00:09:47,078 --> 00:09:49,259
但会因

246
00:09:49,259 --> 00:09:53,789
若服务器投资使用寿命仅五年

247
00:09:53,789 --> 00:09:55,990
需逐步计提折旧

248
00:09:55,990 --> 00:09:59,669
有些投资者如迈克尔·布里里说

249
00:09:59,669 --> 00:10:00,629
看看这个

250
00:10:00,629 --> 00:10:03,899
Sayadella 正在说微软的首席执行官

251
00:10:03,899 --> 00:10:08,019
他指出资产的使用寿命可能更接近两年而非

252
00:10:08,019 --> 00:10:10,158
假设采用五年的类型

253
00:10:10,158 --> 00:10:11,558
你知道的会计计量方法

254
00:10:11,558 --> 00:10:16,970
在这种情况下，折旧计划可能没有准确反映

255
00:10:16,970 --> 00:10:21,210
这种持续烧钱的运营模式

256
00:10:21,210 --> 00:10:23,929
需要不断对基础设施进行再投资

257
00:10:23,929 --> 00:10:27,190
因此利润可能面临10%到20%的冲击

258
00:10:27,190 --> 00:10:28,980
这就是另一个角度

259
00:10:28,980 --> 00:10:31,340
这正在对微软股价造成压力

260
00:10:31,340 --> 00:10:37,019
这是不是评估认为你们的基础设施折旧计划将上调

261
00:10:37,019 --> 00:10:38,750
总体来看我分析微软

262
00:10:38,750 --> 00:10:40,450
看到股价略有下跌

263
00:10:40,450 --> 00:10:43,549
市值仍维持在三千亿美元左右

264
00:10:43,549 --> 00:10:45,470
交易在25倍市盈率附近

265
00:10:45,470 --> 00:10:47,230
每股收益约为一点

266
00:10:47,230 --> 00:10:48,289
你知道的一百二十

267
00:10:48,289 --> 00:10:49,809
今年预计盈利数十亿美元

268
00:10:49,809 --> 00:10:50,730
大致相当于

269
00:10:50,730 --> 00:10:52,909
假设三千亿美元市值

270
00:10:52,909 --> 00:10:55,029
这是否构成双底结构

271
00:10:55,029 --> 00:10:56,669
你知道吉姆·克莱默说

272
00:10:56,669 --> 00:10:57,110
我感到担忧

273
00:10:57,110 --> 00:10:58,769
是时候退出了

274
00:10:58,769 --> 00:11:00,309
我的个人观点是

275
00:11:00,309 --> 00:11:00,990
一如既往

276
00:11:00,990 --> 00:11:02,289
以上内容不构成财务建议

277
00:11:02,289 --> 00:11:07,070
我只是分享自己投资旅程的一部分

278
00:11:07,070 --> 00:11:09,809
另外Justin W作为高级会员留言

279
00:11:09,809 --> 00:11:12,029
感谢你近期产出的优质内容

280
00:11:12,029 --> 00:11:15,750
过去四年从你这里学到很多投资知识

281
00:11:15,750 --> 00:11:16,789
作为会员

282
00:11:16,789 --> 00:11:18,210
这紧随安德烈S之后

283
00:11:18,210 --> 00:11:19,730
自从我加入以来

284
00:11:19,730 --> 00:11:20,450
我的投资组合持续增长

285
00:11:20,450 --> 00:11:22,179
无需我额外操心

286
00:11:22,179 --> 00:11:23,940
如果你在寻找优质投资标的

287
00:11:23,940 --> 00:11:24,539
快来查看

288
00:11:24,539 --> 00:11:25,460
无与伦比投资

289
00:11:25,460 --> 00:11:30,259
我刚为无与伦比投资会员制作了独家视频

290
00:11:30,259 --> 00:11:33,740
详细解析一只我认为极具

291
00:11:33,740 --> 00:11:34,899
你深知我对此高度看好的股票

292
00:11:34,899 --> 00:11:35,899
我最近一直在买入

293
00:11:35,899 --> 00:11:37,230
如果你感兴趣

294
00:11:37,230 --> 00:11:38,230
请查看相关内容

295
00:11:38,230 --> 00:11:39,370
如果我切换到闪讯

296
00:11:39,370 --> 00:11:40,309
我的免费使用

297
00:11:40,309 --> 00:11:41,190
AI助手

298
00:11:41,190 --> 00:11:43,068
分析全球任何公司

299
00:11:43,068 --> 00:11:44,509
其对微软的看法

300
00:11:44,509 --> 00:11:45,849
我觉得有点偏颇

301
00:11:45,849 --> 00:11:46,649
基于语言分析

302
00:11:46,649 --> 00:11:47,788
历史上交易频繁

303
00:11:47,788 --> 00:11:48,989
看起来有点后视镜视角

304
00:11:48,989 --> 00:11:49,328
镜像反射

305
00:11:49,328 --> 00:11:51,029
这种绘图驱动方式

306
00:11:51,029 --> 00:11:51,470
表达的意思是

307
00:11:51,470 --> 00:11:53,450
观察高基线情况

308
00:11:53,450 --> 00:11:57,139
如果你获得多倍增长并持续

309
00:11:57,139 --> 00:11:59,730
你知道这种强劲基本面增长

310
00:12:04,789 --> 00:12:09,299
而低概率情景可能继续出现

311
00:12:09,299 --> 00:12:14,240
市盈率收缩至约18倍

312
00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:15,500
但你知道从

313
00:12:15,500 --> 00:12:17,639
假设从25倍涨到18倍

314
00:12:17,639 --> 00:12:22,899
这被当前业务基本面增长所抵消

315
00:12:22,899 --> 00:12:25,659
我有一个检查清单

316
00:12:25,659 --> 00:12:29,399
我用它评估所有目标公司

317
00:12:29,399 --> 00:12:31,440
让我们看看微软如何通过

318
00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,620
管理层协同与明显增长

319
00:12:33,620 --> 00:12:36,700
我认为这是两大关键估值优势

320
00:12:36,700 --> 00:12:38,799
有时对此会稍作灵活处理

321
00:12:38,799 --> 00:12:40,690
但这两点必须具备

322
00:12:40,690 --> 00:12:42,850
理想情况下我希望全部满足

323
00:12:42,850 --> 00:12:43,169
我想要

324
00:12:43,169 --> 00:12:44,110
我想开始买入

325
00:12:44,110 --> 00:12:45,509
因此管理层协同

326
00:12:45,509 --> 00:12:46,028
你可能会说

327
00:12:46,028 --> 00:12:47,229
等等约翰·斯坦顿

328
00:12:47,229 --> 00:12:49,639
这位近期买入200万美元的董事

329
00:12:49,639 --> 00:12:51,320
这不说明对齐一致吗

330
00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:54,860
但我也看到纳德拉大量抛售

331
00:12:54,860 --> 00:12:56,379
尽管他是顶级CEO

332
00:12:56,379 --> 00:12:59,419
他刚抛售7500万美元股票

333
00:12:59,419 --> 00:13:01,039
就在九月

334
00:13:01,039 --> 00:13:04,759
所以这并不完美

335
00:13:04,759 --> 00:13:05,399
在我看来

336
00:13:05,399 --> 00:13:07,799
当你看到这种动态

337
00:13:07,799 --> 00:13:08,879
我宁愿

338
00:13:08,879 --> 00:13:11,179
可以说管理层对齐是指

339
00:13:11,179 --> 00:13:13,039
全盘买入行为

340
00:13:13,039 --> 00:13:14,110
或存在市盈率

341
00:13:14,110 --> 00:13:15,450
多位内部人表示

342
00:13:15,450 --> 00:13:15,710
是的

343
00:13:15,710 --> 00:13:17,509
价值极具吸引力

344
00:13:17,509 --> 00:13:18,529
但当你只看到

345
00:13:18,529 --> 00:13:19,450
且规模较小

346
00:13:19,450 --> 00:13:22,179
相对于抛售量吸引力不足

347
00:13:22,179 --> 00:13:25,600
因此这种协同信号较弱

348
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,159
尽管如此，纳德拉和阿德尔

349
00:13:27,159 --> 00:13:27,870
为了争论

350
00:13:27,870 --> 00:13:30,029
这确实是一位优秀的首席执行官

351
00:13:31,149 --> 00:13:32,539
一名操作员

352
00:13:32,539 --> 00:13:34,539
那么考虑增长潜力

353
00:13:34,539 --> 00:13:36,840
我认为存在明显的增长要素

354
00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:40,240
你已经看到他们的Azure和云服务

355
00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:41,799
明显在抢占市场份额

356
00:13:41,799 --> 00:13:43,100
这一点值得观察

357
00:13:43,100 --> 00:13:46,000
还有更多增长渠道

358
00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:47,710
比如他们的分销模式

359
00:13:47,710 --> 00:13:48,389
可以说

360
00:13:48,389 --> 00:13:48,549
嗯

361
00:13:48,549 --> 00:13:48,990
等等，等等

362
00:13:48,990 --> 00:13:53,710
已有数亿人使用Office 365

363
00:13:53,710 --> 00:13:54,230
你知道的

364
00:13:54,230 --> 00:13:56,529
难道不能向他们推销Copilot吗

365
00:13:56,529 --> 00:14:00,490
这不就成了快速增长的高端方案

366
00:14:00,490 --> 00:14:01,549
也就是说

367
00:14:01,549 --> 00:14:05,019
利用AI简化工作流程

368
00:14:05,019 --> 00:14:07,659
并实际提升盈利能力

369
00:14:07,659 --> 00:14:11,750
因此我认为这是对之前担忧的反面

370
00:14:11,750 --> 00:14:12,970
我之前提到的

371
00:14:12,970 --> 00:14:13,509
嘿

372
00:14:13,509 --> 00:14:15,549
难道AI不会颠覆所有工作吗

373
00:14:15,549 --> 00:14:15,970
嗯

374
00:14:15,970 --> 00:14:16,450
那又如何

375
00:14:16,450 --> 00:14:20,750
或许是在微软办公套件中应用Copilot

376
00:14:20,750 --> 00:14:22,769
这让每个人的工作更轻松

377
00:14:22,769 --> 00:14:25,929
公司和员工都愿意为此付费

378
00:14:25,929 --> 00:14:26,529
可以说

379
00:14:26,529 --> 00:14:29,769
这正是利用前沿模型的变革性举措

380
00:14:30,889 --> 00:14:31,559
拭目以待

381
00:14:31,559 --> 00:14:33,519
我认为存在这种风险

382
00:14:33,519 --> 00:14:35,700
可能是一种前沿模型

383
00:14:35,700 --> 00:14:36,240
那

384
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,519
将在未来十年彻底颠覆行业

385
00:14:39,519 --> 00:14:40,359
我们拭目以待

386
00:14:40,359 --> 00:14:43,899
我认为另一个让投资者担忧的方面

387
00:14:43,899 --> 00:14:47,919
是他们近期财报中的这张幻灯片

388
00:14:47,919 --> 00:14:48,919
管理层谈到

389
00:14:48,919 --> 00:14:49,120
是的

390
00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:54,000
我们仍有约6250亿美元的剩余履约义务

391
00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:58,809
这令人惊叹，加权平均期限约为2.5年

392
00:14:58,809 --> 00:15:04,240
6250亿美元分布在约三年周期内

393
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,600
部分义务将持续两到三年

394
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:08,299
部分则

395
00:15:08,299 --> 00:15:08,679
你知道的

396
00:15:08,679 --> 00:15:10,080
可能接近四到五年

397
00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,149
但总计6250亿美元

398
00:15:12,149 --> 00:15:14,009
其中约四

399
00:15:14,009 --> 00:15:17,450
剩余履约义务的百分之五

400
00:15:17,450 --> 00:15:19,690
这笔RPO来自OpenAI

401
00:15:19,690 --> 00:15:22,299
因此这确实带来了不确定性

402
00:15:22,299 --> 00:15:26,159
如果OpenAI出现融资问题

403
00:15:26,159 --> 00:15:30,289
或者AI行业本身的规模

404
00:15:30,289 --> 00:15:30,850
你知道的

405
00:15:30,850 --> 00:15:31,839
无法扩展

406
00:15:31,839 --> 00:15:33,639
就像OpenAI预期的那样

407
00:15:33,639 --> 00:15:35,239
或者微软预期的那样

408
00:15:35,239 --> 00:15:37,239
你知道这有点像

409
00:15:37,239 --> 00:15:37,918
哦

410
00:15:37,918 --> 00:15:39,119
这是一个重大承诺

411
00:15:39,119 --> 00:15:42,070
显然你在进行这项基础设施投资

412
00:15:42,070 --> 00:15:45,899
押注于满足这巨额

413
00:15:45,899 --> 00:15:46,700
你知道的

414
00:15:46,700 --> 00:15:50,200
OpenAI的三百亿美元承诺

415
00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:53,519
但这就是他们投资基础设施的原因

416
00:15:53,519 --> 00:15:56,259
因此存在这样的风险

417
00:15:56,259 --> 00:15:56,899
会发生什么

418
00:15:56,899 --> 00:15:57,279
你知道的

419
00:15:57,279 --> 00:15:59,440
OpenAI是一家烧钱企业

420
00:15:59,440 --> 00:15:59,919
是的

421
00:15:59,919 --> 00:16:00,580
它正在增长

422
00:16:00,580 --> 00:16:01,080
你知道的

423
00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:02,389
其中增长最快的

424
00:16:02,389 --> 00:16:02,909
你知道的

425
00:16:02,909 --> 00:16:04,190
百亿级公司

426
00:16:04,190 --> 00:16:06,669
他们刚筹集了约百亿资金

427
00:16:06,669 --> 00:16:08,789
所以他们应该资金充裕

428
00:16:08,789 --> 00:16:10,889
至少未来一两年

429
00:16:10,889 --> 00:16:11,690
我估计

430
00:16:11,690 --> 00:16:13,649
但这是一个非常

431
00:16:13,649 --> 00:16:15,830
这是一个动态领域

432
00:16:15,830 --> 00:16:19,100
所以你正在审视这个

433
00:16:19,100 --> 00:16:19,860
作为投资者

434
00:16:19,860 --> 00:16:24,419
随着公司及行业的发展变化

435
00:16:24,419 --> 00:16:25,970
不确定性更大

436
00:16:25,970 --> 00:16:27,269
存在更多不确定性

437
00:16:27,269 --> 00:16:29,350
这不是简单重复

438
00:16:29,350 --> 00:16:32,789
未来会持续销售更多许可证并扩展

439
00:16:32,789 --> 00:16:33,789
你正在审视这个

440
00:16:33,789 --> 00:16:36,879
行业可能改变人们的工作方式

441
00:16:36,879 --> 00:16:37,679
可能会改变

442
00:16:37,679 --> 00:16:42,639
该业务的资本密集度确实在恶化

443
00:16:42,639 --> 00:16:45,600
你需要从多角度分析这些

444
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:47,740
在我看来并不意外

445
00:16:47,740 --> 00:16:48,159
你知道的

446
00:16:48,159 --> 00:16:49,629
当我审视这些时

447
00:16:49,629 --> 00:16:50,330
是的

448
00:16:50,330 --> 00:16:51,389
完全不出意外

449
00:16:51,389 --> 00:16:56,509
微软的估值稍微下降到约25倍左右

450
00:16:56,509 --> 00:16:59,850
我不认为这价格过高

451
00:16:59,850 --> 00:17:05,490
我认为这可能符合当前面临的不确定性

452
00:17:05,490 --> 00:17:08,689
我更倾向于选择一家交易在

453
00:17:08,689 --> 00:17:10,429
比如说20倍市盈率的公司

454
00:17:10,429 --> 00:17:13,509
并且能将所有自由现金流返还给投资者

455
00:17:13,509 --> 00:17:17,069
因为20倍市盈率就能返还所有自由现金流

456
00:17:17,069 --> 00:17:19,848
你知道这相当于约5%的股息收益率

457
00:17:19,848 --> 00:17:23,769
如果公司仍保持15%到20%的年增长率

458
00:17:23,769 --> 00:17:25,088
那么基本面正在增长

459
00:17:25,088 --> 00:17:28,919
这类投资机会中你知道它们并非

460
00:17:28,919 --> 00:17:31,419
需要进行资本密集型转型的公司

461
00:17:31,419 --> 00:17:32,960
你知道它们

462
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:34,059
现金流

463
00:17:34,059 --> 00:17:40,509
突然被这个高风险项目大量吸收，整体经济回报不确定

464
00:17:40,509 --> 00:17:42,859
微软如果成功我一点也不意外

465
00:17:42,859 --> 00:17:46,720
我认为

466
00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:47,859
萨提亚·纳德拉

467
00:17:47,859 --> 00:17:54,539
在避免过度冒险方面极其谨慎周全

468
00:17:54,539 --> 00:17:56,039
比如说疯狂

469
00:17:56,039 --> 00:18:01,740
在借3000亿美元押注杠杆赌

470
00:18:01,740 --> 00:18:02,000
人工智能

471
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,920
我认为他们即将达到全仓投入点

472
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:05,799
他们会说

473
00:18:05,799 --> 00:18:07,079
这是我们的现金流

474
00:18:07,079 --> 00:18:08,859
这是我们愿意采取的行动

475
00:18:08,859 --> 00:18:11,420
让我们确保其有效性

476
00:18:11,420 --> 00:18:13,539
让我们确保风险可控

477
00:18:13,539 --> 00:18:19,200
如果突破临界点

478
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:20,279
如果从

479
00:18:20,279 --> 00:18:20,539
是的

480
00:18:20,539 --> 00:18:22,960
我们目前处于这个自由现金流水平

481
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:24,859
现在我们反而

482
00:18:24,859 --> 00:18:27,349
接下来几个季度将开始烧钱

483
00:18:27,349 --> 00:18:29,309
这会让投资者警惕

484
00:18:29,309 --> 00:18:29,750
他们会说

485
00:18:29,750 --> 00:18:32,509
这家公司的风险特征已发生变化

486
00:18:32,509 --> 00:18:36,319
可能从25倍降至20倍

487
00:18:36,319 --> 00:18:39,069
这些动态因素正在起作用

488
00:18:39,069 --> 00:18:39,809
就个人而言

489
00:18:39,809 --> 00:18:40,710
你知道

490
00:18:40,710 --> 00:18:41,710
我认为有趣的是

491
00:18:41,710 --> 00:18:45,099
吉姆·克莱默指出这是他担忧的问题

492
00:18:45,099 --> 00:18:49,480
我认为这是为未来增长进行的战略投资

493
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,849
我认为仍有更好的投资机会

494
00:18:52,849 --> 00:18:55,190
这类公司不会经历

495
00:18:55,190 --> 00:18:57,069
公司基本面发生根本变化

496
00:18:57,069 --> 00:19:00,460
这项业务的资本密集度发生根本转变

497
00:19:00,460 --> 00:19:01,700
我可以为你举例说明

498
00:19:01,700 --> 00:19:03,039
你可以找到这类优质公司

499
00:19:03,039 --> 00:19:03,460
如果你

500
00:19:03,460 --> 00:19:04,839
如果你翻动足够多的石头

501
00:19:04,839 --> 00:19:06,319
我希望这段视频对你有帮助

502
00:19:06,319 --> 00:19:07,400
非常感谢你的观看

503
00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:08,440
无与伦比

504
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:09,180
投资

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