磨刀霍霍IPO

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SPACEX将在2026年6月12日IPO

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这将是有史以来最大规模的IPO

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吸引了全世界的目光

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许多人也跃跃欲试

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但今天的主题是来泼冷水的结论

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先说在前面

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这个IPO是一场经过精心算计的首富

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与华尔街机构联手收割散户的一场游戏

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普通人不要参与这场IPO

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也不应该在IPO后短时间内的火热期进入

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我们下文会从历史经验

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财务分析

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联手算计以及坚守底线几个方面来讨论

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一历史经验

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历史数据显示

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美国最大规模的十只IPO中

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只有三只跑赢了标普500

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另外六只大幅跑输指数

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以过去几只大型IPO为例

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阿里巴巴自2014年上市至今

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累计涨幅44%

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而同期标普500涨了256%

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落后212个百分点

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UBER自2019年上市

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累计涨79%

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落后标普500约70个百分点

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RAVIAN自2021年上市

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则累计跌84%

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落后标普500达138个百分点

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这是因为规模越大的IPO市场预期往往也越高

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一开始给到的估值就已经很高

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透支了后续的增长空间

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关于space x的IPO

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不要为情绪和情怀买单

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要考察价值和价格的关系

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机会任何时候都会有的

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巴菲特就非常值得我们学习

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比如他开始苹果时

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苹果早已成熟

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但并不影响他在苹果上的投资

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成为职业生涯赚得最多的决策

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即使不考虑IPO规模

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而是专门去投资IPO公司

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长期下来也是远输给标普500的

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更是以更大幅度输给纳斯达克100

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关于space x用来支撑其脱离基本面的估值的

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太空信仰本身也是非常虚幻的

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我这里可以做一个小判断

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对不对

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留给时间去验证当下活着的

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我们在有生之年都看不到人类殖民

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火星二财务分析

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SPACEX在2025年营收只有155亿美元

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同比2024年增长速度也不过18%

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1.75万亿美元

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相当于110多倍市销率

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纳入XAI后

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净利润是亏损的

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所以我觉得1.75万亿的SPACEX太贵了

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我们对比英伟达和亚马逊

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各自市值达到1.75万亿美元时的年度情况

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英伟达营收达到609亿美元

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同比增长126%

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净利润298亿美元

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同比增长581%

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亚马逊营收达到3861亿美元

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同比增长38%

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净利润213亿美元

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同比增长84%

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马斯克把XAI纳入space x的目的

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简单来说就是两个

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一是用SPACEX来养XAI

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另外给space x加入AI概念

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带来的潜在估值提升要大于XAI单独估值

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他大概率也感觉到了

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XAI已经错过了与OpenAI和ANTHROPIC

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一较高下的窗口

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纳入SPACEX可以继续加入新的概念

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都是PREIPO的巨头

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我们同样参考英伟达和亚马逊

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OpenAI和ANTHROPIC

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接近1万亿美元的估值倒不算过分

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目前OpenAI和ANTHROPIC的arr

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大概都在400亿美元左右

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对应OpenAI的增速是300%

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ANTHROPIC是1000%

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虽然年化营收不如1.5万亿时的英伟达

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但是增速比当年英伟达还要快很多

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市场给高估值是有道理的

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而且从谷歌

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meta以及微软这些科技巨头的大模型表现看

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在agent和编码时代

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大模型的护城河其实非常深

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真正做好的也就只有OpenAI和ANTHROPIC两家

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可以展望SPACEX的上市大概率会带来一波热潮

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但时间会很短

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然后快速降温并破发

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三联手算计

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这次space x上市可以说是经过了精心算计的

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space x给散户预留的股票比例异常高

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原因是散户范围的拓展容易炒作热度

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而散户相比机构来说又不那么在意基本面

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恰恰space x的基本面相对这个IPO估值来说非常差

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由于散户预留比例大

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券商手里可分配的货源便多了很多

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很多券商大幅降低了散户的参与门槛

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比如fidelity

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只需要客户账户里有2000美元资产即可参与

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而fidelity平常IPO参与资格通常是家庭资产

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10万或50万美元

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Robin hood so fine

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易坠的则没有特定最低资产要求

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美国存在一个反flipping原则

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因为承销商不希望首发获配马上变成抛压

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所以会制定一个普遍为30天的期限

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在这个时间段内

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你仍然可以卖出IPO或配股票

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但这会影响你以后通过该券商

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参与以后的IPO的资格或获配优先级

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这种反FLAING规则

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可以说是券商层面的行为驯化机制

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所以我们可以用一段简单的话来总结

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SPACEX这样操作绝对不是大发慈悲

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要给散户发财的机会

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这是一套环环相扣的流动性陷阱

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用极低的门槛吸引最庞大的散户基数

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捕鱼时把网眼缩小

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就连小鱼也不放过

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再用30天的惩罚期

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将中签散户锁在车上

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并承接内部抛压

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根据规则

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space x在IPO后前180天的抛压非常巨大

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不只是space x自己

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很多机构也在配合马斯克画饼

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作为这次IPO的牵头承销商

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高盛在space x ipo之前公开表示

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space x人工智能部门收入将在4年内增长

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9900%

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到2030年达到3220亿美元

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同样作为承销商

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大摩更加夸张说

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2040年时候

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space x的营收将达到3.4万亿美元

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这意味着space x在2025年后的15年里

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营收要膨胀210倍

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年化营收增速达到43.3%

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在美股的历史中

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只有谷歌

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亚马逊以及sales holdings3家公司

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实现过15年超过210倍的增长

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其中谷歌为2001~2016

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从8642万美元

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发展到903亿美元

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亚马逊为1997~2012

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从1.48亿美元发展到611亿美元

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sensus holdings为2009~2024

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从590万美元发展到13.6亿美元

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连英伟达到目前为止

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都没有达到过这样的超长期超高增速

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实现过这种区间增长

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三家公司的起点营收都很低

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只有几百万美元到1亿美元左右

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而SPACEX在2025年作为起点的

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营收为155亿美元

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这一年营收的同比增速仅18%

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上面这些事情都让我深深感受到

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美国金融市场上的坏人真的太多

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也再一次感叹

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巴菲特主张普通人投资标普500是多么正确

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多么有良心的建议

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四坚守底线

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但在另一方面还是有令人欣慰的事

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好让SPACEX可以快速纳入指数

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比如交易量最大的标普500指数

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被无数美国人甚至其他国际养老金机构投资

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只要一家公司进入标普500

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就可以享受这些资金的涌入

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所以马斯克的目的很明显

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就是希望引导源源不断的被动资金

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来买SPACEX的股票

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过去其他公司进入标普500都是伴随其成长

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先成为指数中排位较后的小权重公司

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如果公司继续成长

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权重也可以继续提升

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而space x因为IPO市值巨大

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一上来就可能占据不小的权重

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吸引巨量被动资金投资

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从而抬升股价

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但标普已决定不修改标普500

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标普meat cap400和标普small cap600

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的成分股准入标准

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这些标准包括财务可行性要求

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上市时间要求

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以及最低流通股比例要求

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标普表示

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即使一家公司拥有极高的市值

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也不应仅因规模庞大而获得规则豁免

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委员会认为

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为超大市值公司单独开设例外条款

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会破坏指数编制规则的一致性和公平性

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要纳入标普指数

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公司

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必须在合格交易所交易

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至少12个月才能被考虑加入

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而且必须最近一个季度净利润为正

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且最近四个连续季度合计净利润也为正

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这里真的要给标普点赞

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不管你是谁

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不管你的饼有多大

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一样要提供一年的盈利数据

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要对得起投资人

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换个角度思考

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标普的做法也是对的

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如果一家公司经营足够好

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一年后一样可以纳入标普500

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这么着急

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从被动投资中抽流动性

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是在急什么呢

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相比之下

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纳斯达克的指数规则不如标普严格

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在2026年5月1日启动了快速纳入机制

223
00:07:50,740 --> 00:07:53,100
当然这也不只是为了space x开绿灯

224
00:07:53,100 --> 00:07:55,110
也有交易所争夺巨型IPO

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增强自身吸引力的考虑

226
00:07:56,870 --> 00:07:58,029
不过即使是这样

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00:07:58,029 --> 00:07:59,930
SPACEX也得不到很高的权重

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00:07:59,930 --> 00:08:01,069
我们可以科普一下

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00:08:01,069 --> 00:08:03,209
纳斯达克100的快速纳入算法

230
00:08:03,209 --> 00:08:05,930
要被纳斯达克100快速纳入总市值

231
00:08:05,930 --> 00:08:07,949
需要进入纳斯达克100前40名

232
00:08:07,949 --> 00:08:11,000
但纳入后的权重是根据流通市值来的

233
00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:11,959
具体算法是

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00:08:11,959 --> 00:08:15,480
用t so总流通在外股数和自由流通股数的三倍

235
00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,120
这两者较小者来算权重市值

236
00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:19,120
纳斯达克表示

237
00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,360
这是为了让低流通股票能被纳入

238
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,329
但权重不会过度超过市场可交易供给

239
00:08:24,329 --> 00:08:26,310
基于space x的IPO案例计算

240
00:08:26,310 --> 00:08:29,029
它的TSO是129.63亿股

241
00:08:29,029 --> 00:08:32,029
但IPO自由流通股只有5.556亿股

242
00:08:32,029 --> 00:08:34,809
三倍的自由流通股就是16.668亿股

243
00:08:34,809 --> 00:08:36,789
显然是三倍的自由流通股较小

244
00:08:36,789 --> 00:08:38,769
发行价135美元

245
00:08:38,769 --> 00:08:41,269
所以取这个值来计算权重市值

246
00:08:41,269 --> 00:08:44,470
即16.668亿股乘135美元

247
00:08:44,470 --> 00:08:46,740
等于2250.18亿美元

248
00:08:46,740 --> 00:08:48,639
这个市值放在纳斯达克100中

249
00:08:48,639 --> 00:08:50,340
占比大约只有0.6%

250
00:08:50,340 --> 00:08:52,320
在纳斯达克100相关基金敞口中

251
00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,860
ETF部分5870亿美元

252
00:08:54,860 --> 00:08:56,899
所以给SPACEX带来的被动资金

253
00:08:56,899 --> 00:08:59,659
大概就是5870乘以0.6%

254
00:08:59,659 --> 00:09:01,379
等于35.2亿美元

255
00:09:01,379 --> 00:09:03,679
这对于SPACEX来说不算特别多

256
00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:04,519
总的来说

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00:09:04,519 --> 00:09:07,559
纳斯达克这个机制虽然开了SPACEX快速纳入了门

258
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但给的权重非常谨慎

259
00:09:09,309 --> 00:09:10,669
后续要增大权重

260
00:09:10,669 --> 00:09:11,710
要么股价上涨

261
00:09:11,710 --> 00:09:12,909
要么流动股增加

262
00:09:12,909 --> 00:09:14,570
但流通股增加的过程

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00:09:14,570 --> 00:09:16,799
大股东套现又会打压股价

264
00:09:16,799 --> 00:09:20,379
所以最终权重还是取决于公司的基本面发展

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最后我想说

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00:09:21,620 --> 00:09:23,710
理性是投资的基本对

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00:09:23,710 --> 00:09:26,610
任何人去魅就是理性的一个具象化体现

268
00:09:26,610 --> 00:09:27,789
无论这个人是谁

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00:09:27,789 --> 00:09:30,589
去魅的原则是对待所有人都用同一标准

270
00:09:30,589 --> 00:09:31,788
假设哪一天马云

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00:09:31,788 --> 00:09:33,668
雷军或者贾跃亭中的一个人

272
00:09:33,668 --> 00:09:35,590
屡屡画饼拉估值却不实现

273
00:09:35,590 --> 00:09:36,850
然后在IPO的时候

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00:09:36,850 --> 00:09:38,750
联合机构煽动散户进场

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00:09:38,750 --> 00:09:41,769
甚至还推动交易所为其改变指数规则

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00:09:41,769 --> 00:09:43,919
你是不是会对他们口诛笔伐

277
00:09:43,919 --> 00:09:47,279
那么为什么换一个人做相同的事就要趋之若鹜

278
00:09:47,279 --> 00:09:48,839
甚至卑躬屈膝呢

279
00:09:48,839 --> 00:09:50,798
最后重要的是再强调一遍

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00:09:50,798 --> 00:09:52,139
为自己的钱包负责

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00:09:52,139 --> 00:09:53,960
不要凑space x的热闹

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00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,159
本期内容来自我过去一个月内

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00:09:56,159 --> 00:09:58,320
星球的部分时间线和专属订阅

284
00:09:58,320 --> 00:09:59,750
内容中的部分条目

285
00:09:59,750 --> 00:10:01,490
有许多读者并未加入星球

286
00:10:01,490 --> 00:10:03,169
而我觉得这个坑又太明显

287
00:10:03,169 --> 00:10:05,980
所以忍不住要在工号这个免费平台分享

288
00:10:05,980 --> 00:10:07,139
关于星球社群

289
00:10:07,139 --> 00:10:11,100
也欢迎了解并扫公号文章下方二维码加入

290
00:10:12,980 --> 00:10:14,559
如果你喜欢本期视频

291
00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:15,980
希望可以点赞关注

292
00:10:15,980 --> 00:10:16,679
支持一波

293
00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:19,000
这将对我有很大的帮助

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