【The Motley Fool】股价腰斩50%！SoFi 正沦为一家传统银行？

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Shares and sofi are down fifty percent from their high in november

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但如今这是否已成为绝佳价值

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具备超越市场的潜力

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或是价值陷阱与投资者手中的下刀刀柄

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我带来了卢

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今天请来卢讨论sofi及银行业现状

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卢

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这是一家极具魅力的公司

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在金融行业

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因为他们扮演颠覆者角色

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同时又保持传统银行属性

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市场显然对sofi近期表现不满

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首季财报发布一周前

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当我们录制时

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有趣之处在于

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sofi仍以远超同行的速度增长

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最新季度净营收增长43%

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处于极高水平

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这是否值得担忧

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是否已接近临界点

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好的

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该股可能在2025年被高估

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如今我们看到

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或许存在投资机会

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哦

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特拉维斯挑衅言论

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称其为银行

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会引发大量评论

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不过

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很多事情可以同时成立

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我曾因此陷入争议

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但在我看来确实像银行

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会遭遇质疑

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总有人反驳

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有多少银行能30%增长

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我们可以深入探讨

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及其意义

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是的

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对我来说难点是

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每日估值似乎更合理

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但仍认为银行股被高估

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所以我既不

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我认为这并非

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无灾难降临

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也不是烂公司

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我也无意买入

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即便已跌50%

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仍有上涨空间

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我们可以详谈

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但这家公司确实引人入胜

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你知道我更喜欢这家公司的股票

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我确实希望你能回答这个问题

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你什么时候会感兴趣

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但让我们先谈到

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我们先来梳理一下业务

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因为我认为这家业务值得乐观

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但也存在一些担忧因素

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所以先从贷款业务开始

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这是传统银行业务部分

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如果你在分析财务数据

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你会涉及所有相关事项

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不良贷款率是多少

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资本结构如何

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这些方面在本季度显著增长

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管理层做了几件值得肯定的事

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他们增资以发放更多贷款尤其

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呃

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最大的业务仍是个人贷款

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但现在更多转向房贷业务

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纵观整个业务

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你关注哪些指标

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然后如何评估sofi

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作为个人贷款公司

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学生贷款

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再少量涉足房贷业务与传统银行

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这有点反常

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你知道房贷业务

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还有企业贷款

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你们并不参与

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主要专注于个人贷款业务

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是的

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所以我说

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原因在于

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但有些确实参与个人贷款

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他们称为信用卡业务

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所以有不同切入方式

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对啊

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总之

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关键在于

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资产中有多少是抵押贷款

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有多少是无抵押贷款

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无抵押贷款能带来更多收益

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有时

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因为风险更高

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但必须赚取更多利润

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如果形势恶化

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会有更多坏账

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我不再担心贷款业务

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这看起来是一家健康快速成长的银行

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我的意思是

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查看起源业务

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而不是最近一个季度的十二亿美元

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这在银行业规模中微不足道

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但正在增长

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状态良好

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他们具备能力

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拥有人们喜爱的产品

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并能成功引入客户

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我这个i

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我要关注所有银行

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如果经济恶化

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将出现坏账

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需要向我们所有人追讨

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这是银行业的一部分

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我认为如此

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如果我能处理这种情况

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在我看来并不糟糕

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关键在于可持续性如何

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能持续多久

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我认为答案相当可持续

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在一定时间内

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贷款业务没问题

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贷款业务唯一的批评仍是那个b词

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你在开头提到的词汇

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看起来增长势头健康

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他们经常讨论的一点是

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并在近期扩展了贷款业务

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这会改变你对sofi的看法吗

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我曾将其比作部分银行

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但也是平台业务

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兼具科技公司属性

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所以如果

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申请一万美元个人贷款

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sofi可能直接放贷

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也可能转售给投资者

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如果他们不承担风险

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仅做贷款中介

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这项业务

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目前而言

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贷款平台业务贡献了三亿美元

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九亿美元保留在资产负债表

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若这种结构变化

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转变为更多费基业务

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这样的公司

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这会改变你对业务的看法吗

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还是仍是银行

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当你发放贷款时

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部分费基业务利润率更高

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所以我们喜欢那些

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而且我认为这取决于轮班情况

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我们可能会

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这可能更具吸引力

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但听着

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这并不一定意味着

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我的意思是

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听着

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基于费用的业务需要看到一些科技平台业务

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而不是那些仍在经历

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一些资本密集型的放贷流程

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所以这又是一个中间状态

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我再说一次

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我不是要挑剔这家公司

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因为我觉得这家公司没问题

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但粉丝们

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你刚才描述的

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我的信用社为汽车贷款和房贷做这些

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以及类似的事情

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所以是的

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这确实是一件有价值的事

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不持有贷款有利有弊

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这对快速成长平台来说

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可以释放资源

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同时也能进退自如

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这正是你想要的

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这可以成为非常高效的模式

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而我我我不会

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嗯

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我不能但我只是

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我在

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我不想太苛责这家公司

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我认为他们在做正确的事

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只是这不像是创新

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从方式来看

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或许市场认可这一点

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或将其视为创新

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我觉得我们在此达成共识

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放贷业务是稳固的核心基础

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表现相对良好

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但我们尚未看到风险

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那些可能

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你知道的

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会对这家银行造成损害

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现在转向科技平台板块

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因为这是第一季度真正受冲击的部分

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他们失去了一大客户

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收入从2025年第四季度的120

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两百万骤降至7500万

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这是环比骤降

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他们的贡献利润

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这是他们衡量所有业务板块盈利能力的方式

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从四千八百万增长到现在的十二百万

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如果你不熟悉技术平台业务

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这大概就是他们喜欢的

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白标技术

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你将会获得

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你知道的信用卡业务

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也许你的HSA账户之类的

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或者你拥有

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你知道的

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存款账户

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呃

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我感觉H&R Block

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他们确实做了这些

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你知道的

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通过持有HR Block账户可以获得3.5%的利率

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这实际上是SoFi的技术平台

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当你观察这项业务

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你怎么看待这个

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因为

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正如我所关注的

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所以我

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这是表面看起来

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似乎还不错

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具有科技公司属性的业务

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标注他们的服务

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可以覆盖大量客户

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这是一项基于费用的业务

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看起来是个好生意

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但这尚未

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最近表现其实不佳

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所以这是否意味着

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所有科技公司都在

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所有银行都在

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转变为科技公司

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因此差异化不再明显

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是否有其他因素在起作用

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是的

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这没错

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银行即服务

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确实是个好生意

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我们刚才讨论的就是这个

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其中一些

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这类资本消耗较少的业务

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这就是优质业务

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我不认为问题出在

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SoFi正在做的事情

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我认为再次

248
00:07:48,250 --> 00:07:50,129
尽管市场竞争激烈

249
00:07:50,129 --> 00:07:52,370
实现这一目标有很多方法

250
00:07:52,370 --> 00:07:54,610
那位留下铃声的客户

251
00:07:54,610 --> 00:07:57,310
我认为这基本上是他们将部分业务内部化

252
00:07:57,310 --> 00:07:59,490
仅仅因为技术已经存在

253
00:07:59,490 --> 00:08:01,839
而且自行操作成本更低

254
00:08:01,839 --> 00:08:02,480
但就是这样

255
00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:04,699
所以大约7500万美元他们以三折购得

256
00:08:04,699 --> 00:08:06,079
两年五个月期

257
00:08:06,079 --> 00:08:08,720
这意味着每季度83美元

258
00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:09,930
这很低

259
00:08:09,930 --> 00:08:12,170
两位数增长相当不错

260
00:08:12,170 --> 00:08:15,310
这并非你想要的30%整体增长

261
00:08:15,310 --> 00:08:19,129
这是他们一直在大肆宣扬的

262
00:08:19,129 --> 00:08:24,649
我认为市场对本季度的反应并非主要因增长

263
00:08:24,649 --> 00:08:26,610
而是增长的质量

264
00:08:26,610 --> 00:08:28,379
或增长的来源

265
00:08:28,379 --> 00:08:29,339
某种程度上

266
00:08:29,339 --> 00:08:35,448
观察到的是向资本密集型业务的不利转变

267
00:08:35,448 --> 00:08:36,629
银行业务方面

268
00:08:36,629 --> 00:08:37,589
贷款业务方面

269
00:08:37,589 --> 00:08:41,558
而非来自高质量平台业务

270
00:08:42,919 --> 00:08:45,840
听着，我认为诺托在电话会上提到

271
00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,379
他有十几个客户排队等待

272
00:08:48,379 --> 00:08:50,019
所有业务都将被回补

273
00:08:50,019 --> 00:08:51,210
希望如此

274
00:08:51,210 --> 00:08:51,690
是的

275
00:08:51,690 --> 00:08:54,169
但这是诺多长期承诺的事

276
00:08:54,169 --> 00:08:56,549
这项技术平台业务

277
00:08:56,549 --> 00:08:57,389
即将到位

278
00:08:57,389 --> 00:08:58,490
即将达到临界点

279
00:08:58,490 --> 00:09:01,159
即将转变为可持续增长业务

280
00:09:01,159 --> 00:09:01,620
它

281
00:09:01,620 --> 00:09:02,899
但它实际上尚未实现

282
00:09:02,899 --> 00:09:06,899
客户账户数量近五年基本持平

283
00:09:06,899 --> 00:09:07,419
此时此刻

284
00:09:07,419 --> 00:09:09,100
我能猜个大概吗

285
00:09:09,100 --> 00:09:11,360
我认为他们正在签约大量客户

286
00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,759
他们对此表现出极大兴趣

287
00:09:13,759 --> 00:09:16,700
但大多数都是极小众的业务

288
00:09:16,700 --> 00:09:17,899
不会产生显著影响

289
00:09:17,899 --> 00:09:19,399
而我认为这可能

290
00:09:19,399 --> 00:09:22,419
毕竟其他银行在科技上的投入

291
00:09:22,419 --> 00:09:27,279
以及基础平台的选择余地

292
00:09:27,279 --> 00:09:30,639
很难获得定价权或

293
00:09:30,639 --> 00:09:33,230
实现真正的增长

294
00:09:33,230 --> 00:09:36,429
所以我们又回到B字词

295
00:09:36,429 --> 00:09:38,110
但你知道的

296
00:09:38,110 --> 00:09:39,850
让我们从银行角度看待

297
00:09:39,850 --> 00:09:41,980
因为增长似乎在这里

298
00:09:41,980 --> 00:09:43,440
让我们转向金融服务

299
00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:48,029
这又是一个更接近传统银行的业务

300
00:09:48,029 --> 00:09:49,710
你们提供经纪服务

301
00:09:49,710 --> 00:09:53,799
加密货币正在尝试突破边界

302
00:09:53,799 --> 00:09:54,759
远超你的想象

303
00:09:54,759 --> 00:09:56,879
就像摩根大通或高盛

304
00:09:56,879 --> 00:09:58,139
可能像这样进入

305
00:09:58,139 --> 00:09:59,740
你知道区块链技术

306
00:09:59,740 --> 00:10:02,759
但你看这个营收增长非常强劲

307
00:10:02,759 --> 00:10:06,059
金融服务板块增长41%

308
00:10:06,059 --> 00:10:08,909
贡献利润增长32%

309
00:10:08,909 --> 00:10:13,129
但再看季度环比数据

310
00:10:13,129 --> 00:10:16,870
会发现像罗宾hood这样的公司也面临的问题

311
00:10:16,870 --> 00:10:19,769
交易活动略有下降

312
00:10:19,769 --> 00:10:21,769
加密货币活动也略有下降

313
00:10:21,769 --> 00:10:22,929
如果您的客户

314
00:10:22,929 --> 00:10:23,429
如果你是

315
00:10:23,429 --> 00:10:23,870
如果这是

316
00:10:23,870 --> 00:10:26,350
你有一个基于

317
00:10:26,350 --> 00:10:28,769
人们使用你们平台的程度如何

318
00:10:28,769 --> 00:10:29,870
他们交易多少

319
00:10:29,870 --> 00:10:31,240
当交易量下降时

320
00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:32,919
开始出现小幅下滑

321
00:10:32,919 --> 00:10:34,120
所以你现在在这里

322
00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:35,000
数据表现积极

323
00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,440
但进一步分析季度环比

324
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:38,399
各项指标略有下滑

325
00:10:38,399 --> 00:10:40,129
这可能令人担忧

326
00:10:40,129 --> 00:10:42,409
进入下半年

327
00:10:43,259 --> 00:10:43,659
是的

328
00:10:43,659 --> 00:10:46,679
纵观整个金融业

329
00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:48,460
独立公司很少见

330
00:10:48,460 --> 00:10:50,960
而罗宾hood是个例外

331
00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:56,179
大多数独立企业都在寻求合作

332
00:10:56,179 --> 00:10:58,970
这确实是个互补性业务

333
00:10:58,970 --> 00:11:00,690
我很喜欢他们进入这个领域

334
00:11:00,690 --> 00:11:03,970
我认为向贷款客户交叉销售

335
00:11:03,970 --> 00:11:07,049
或普通存款客户

336
00:11:07,049 --> 00:11:09,590
为什么不整合在一起

337
00:11:09,590 --> 00:11:10,929
并非否定这个业务

338
00:11:10,929 --> 00:11:11,549
但再次强调

339
00:11:11,549 --> 00:11:14,789
我不认为有魔法棒

340
00:11:14,789 --> 00:11:18,129
能瞬间提升增长

341
00:11:18,129 --> 00:11:19,690
内部业务

342
00:11:19,690 --> 00:11:22,070
因此优于整个行业

343
00:11:22,070 --> 00:11:23,289
我不认为

344
00:11:23,289 --> 00:11:26,639
罗宾hood正在尝试并大力

345
00:11:26,639 --> 00:11:27,299
应该说

346
00:11:27,299 --> 00:11:30,200
大力开拓前沿以实现目标

347
00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:31,200
我不确定你是否了解

348
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:31,440
我的意思是

349
00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:36,129
迄今为止最好的情况也只是再次随大流

350
00:11:36,129 --> 00:11:37,830
这对我来说是一个核心主题

351
00:11:37,830 --> 00:11:38,570
太棒了

352
00:11:38,570 --> 00:11:39,750
很高兴他们这样做

353
00:11:39,750 --> 00:11:42,149
我看不到这会像

354
00:11:42,149 --> 00:11:42,450
好的

355
00:11:42,450 --> 00:11:43,409
五年后

356
00:11:43,409 --> 00:11:44,730
他们就是查尔斯·施瓦布

357
00:11:44,730 --> 00:11:45,210
好的

358
00:11:45,210 --> 00:11:48,009
投资者真正关心的问题在这里

359
00:11:48,009 --> 00:11:49,610
所以今天我们已经讨论过

360
00:11:49,610 --> 00:11:50,110
作为一家银行

361
00:11:50,110 --> 00:11:51,090
现在我们来估值

362
00:11:51,090 --> 00:11:52,289
所以我喜欢

363
00:11:52,289 --> 00:11:54,149
这是银行的账面价值倍数

364
00:11:54,149 --> 00:11:55,230
在我们录制时

365
00:11:55,230 --> 00:11:57,389
市净率是1.9倍

366
00:11:58,710 --> 00:12:03,969
路·怀特曼何时从估值角度对SOFI感到兴奋

367
00:12:03,969 --> 00:12:07,548
因为这家公司增长速度超过传统银行

368
00:12:07,548 --> 00:12:09,089
他们的利润率在改善

369
00:12:09,089 --> 00:12:12,929
你可能会觉得这里还有更多看点

370
00:12:12,929 --> 00:12:15,950
不仅仅是买入一家常规银行，后者增速可能只有

371
00:12:15,950 --> 00:12:18,539
个位数增长是否属实

372
00:12:18,539 --> 00:12:19,919
或者你是否仍愿意支付

373
00:12:19,919 --> 00:12:22,659
像这样的公司市净率1倍

374
00:12:24,059 --> 00:12:25,460
我认为这是真的

375
00:12:25,460 --> 00:12:27,940
但问题是正确答案在哪里呢

376
00:12:27,940 --> 00:12:28,220
我是说

377
00:12:28,220 --> 00:12:30,120
1.9倍看起来相当不错

378
00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:31,019
就在几个月前

379
00:12:31,019 --> 00:12:32,409
接近2.3倍

380
00:12:32,409 --> 00:12:33,450
回到

381
00:12:33,450 --> 00:12:35,830
年初时我们市净率超过3倍

382
00:12:35,830 --> 00:12:37,669
确实正在接近目标

383
00:12:37,669 --> 00:12:38,230
没错

384
00:12:38,230 --> 00:12:39,429
我想指出

385
00:12:39,429 --> 00:12:39,549
不过

386
00:12:39,549 --> 00:12:40,669
正如你所说

387
00:12:40,669 --> 00:12:41,490
对于普通银行

388
00:12:41,490 --> 00:12:42,610
摩根大通属性

389
00:12:42,610 --> 00:12:44,049
银行美国特质

390
00:12:44,049 --> 00:12:46,078
略低于1.4倍

391
00:12:46,078 --> 00:12:46,979
忽略它们

392
00:12:46,979 --> 00:12:48,879
他们拥有所有讨厌的分行

393
00:12:48,879 --> 00:12:49,999
大家都讨厌这些分行

394
00:12:49,999 --> 00:12:52,389
我反而喜欢这些分行对某些业务

395
00:12:52,389 --> 00:12:53,690
但无关紧要

396
00:12:53,690 --> 00:12:55,129
而Axos金融

397
00:12:55,129 --> 00:12:56,629
另一家优秀

398
00:12:56,629 --> 00:12:58,059
纯线上银行

399
00:12:58,059 --> 00:12:59,039
当前交易价为一点

400
00:12:59,039 --> 00:13:00,080
市净率六倍

401
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,929
花旗金融目前交易在账面价值附近

402
00:13:03,929 --> 00:13:06,450
我不知道是否想坐在这里说

403
00:13:06,450 --> 00:13:08,169
花旗和索伊价值相当

404
00:13:08,169 --> 00:13:09,529
我不想收到这些邮件

405
00:13:09,529 --> 00:13:11,240
我不认同这个观点

406
00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:12,600
但我不这么认为

407
00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:13,679
我不确定

408
00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:17,159
即便估值几乎翻倍

409
00:13:17,159 --> 00:13:19,580
我不知道该下定决心

410
00:13:19,580 --> 00:13:19,700
所以

411
00:13:19,700 --> 00:13:21,500
如果我喜欢增长潜力

412
00:13:21,500 --> 00:13:22,679
我们可以关注增长部分

413
00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:23,879
以及它的未来走向

414
00:13:23,879 --> 00:13:25,539
不过看这里

415
00:13:25,539 --> 00:13:26,480
投入有限度

416
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:27,639
我愿意为增长付费

417
00:13:27,639 --> 00:13:29,120
另一个指标特拉维斯

418
00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:31,870
我们可以看市盈率

419
00:13:31,870 --> 00:13:34,599
我不太喜欢这个指标

420
00:13:34,599 --> 00:13:35,379
对于银行来说

421
00:13:35,379 --> 00:13:36,798
但这很有趣

422
00:13:36,798 --> 00:13:40,289
所以我仍以27倍预期 earnings 估值

423
00:13:40,289 --> 00:13:41,929
Exos 市盈率十倍

424
00:13:41,929 --> 00:13:43,149
花旗八倍

425
00:13:43,149 --> 00:13:44,990
美国银行十二倍

426
00:13:44,990 --> 00:13:48,019
这不是最好的论据

427
00:13:48,019 --> 00:13:49,419
目前现状是

428
00:13:49,419 --> 00:13:53,730
并未像之前那样高估

429
00:13:53,730 --> 00:13:54,389
嗯

430
00:13:54,389 --> 00:13:54,789
你知道的

431
00:13:54,789 --> 00:13:58,110
我觉得我们已触及有趣价位

432
00:13:58,110 --> 00:14:01,039
但听起来你认为仍有下跌空间

433
00:14:01,039 --> 00:14:03,740
可能每股十美元以下

434
00:14:03,740 --> 00:14:06,480
或许卢开始更兴奋

435
00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,679
但还有其他选择

436
00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,240
我也要提到会员增长

437
00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:11,799
嗯

438
00:14:11,799 --> 00:14:12,879
这是关键的一点

439
00:14:12,879 --> 00:14:17,529
他们的策略是追求品牌增长

440
00:14:17,529 --> 00:14:19,750
你见过他们在索菲体育场

441
00:14:19,750 --> 00:14:21,669
他们赞助高尔夫联赛

442
00:14:21,669 --> 00:14:23,649
品牌随处可见

443
00:14:23,649 --> 00:14:24,870
我对此有疑问

444
00:14:24,870 --> 00:14:26,850
但我觉得有效果

445
00:14:26,850 --> 00:14:27,429
如果观察

446
00:14:27,429 --> 00:14:27,929
对比他们

447
00:14:27,929 --> 00:14:29,110
只需对比Robinhood

448
00:14:29,110 --> 00:14:33,120
从股市看最接近的对比对象

449
00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,940
他们的发展速度甚至超过了罗宾汉

450
00:14:35,940 --> 00:14:39,279
至少在这一指标上，蒂姆正在朝正确方向前进

451
00:14:39,279 --> 00:14:42,179
关于增长需要注意到分母问题

452
00:14:42,179 --> 00:14:44,279
但这并不意味着增长不真实

453
00:14:44,279 --> 00:14:45,440
但这只是

454
00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:45,820
你知道的

455
00:14:45,820 --> 00:14:47,620
如果你想长期持有

456
00:14:47,620 --> 00:14:48,740
必须考虑这一点

457
00:14:48,740 --> 00:14:52,139
所以贷款规模目前约为两

458
00:14:52,139 --> 00:14:54,149
今日已达六亿

459
00:14:54,149 --> 00:14:56,090
不要与大行比较

460
00:14:56,090 --> 00:14:56,629
我们来比较

461
00:14:56,629 --> 00:14:57,610
最真实的银行

462
00:14:57,610 --> 00:14:59,870
这是一家中型区域性银行

463
00:14:59,870 --> 00:15:03,059
他们的贷款规模是十二

464
00:15:03,059 --> 00:15:04,100
十三倍更大

465
00:15:04,100 --> 00:15:06,980
如果你想看摩根大通或杰里安的情况，规模大概五

466
00:15:06,980 --> 00:15:07,960
六倍更大

467
00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:09,240
在某种程度上

468
00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:14,318
能够以如此高速增长是因为基数较小

469
00:15:14,318 --> 00:15:14,899
再次强调

470
00:15:14,899 --> 00:15:16,778
这并非否定这种增长

471
00:15:16,778 --> 00:15:17,879
这只是在

472
00:15:17,879 --> 00:15:18,859
短期内而言

473
00:15:18,859 --> 00:15:19,619
能否持续

474
00:15:19,619 --> 00:15:20,210
是的

475
00:15:20,210 --> 00:15:22,750
但如果模拟五到十年

476
00:15:22,750 --> 00:15:24,139
或任何时间框架

477
00:15:24,139 --> 00:15:25,360
我是长期持有者

478
00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:26,759
我认为这是可持续的

479
00:15:26,759 --> 00:15:28,580
仍需关注分母因素

480
00:15:28,580 --> 00:15:29,039
没错

481
00:15:29,039 --> 00:15:29,639
有趣的观点

482
00:15:29,639 --> 00:15:30,600
拭目以待

483
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:31,159
同样

484
00:15:31,159 --> 00:15:33,059
随着更多房贷业务拓展

485
00:15:33,059 --> 00:15:37,078
贷款规模可能进一步扩大

486
00:15:37,078 --> 00:15:40,519
但风险收益比可能不同

487
00:15:40,519 --> 00:15:41,038
嗯

488
00:15:41,038 --> 00:15:42,318
这大概是个好消息

489
00:15:42,318 --> 00:15:46,929
但也支持将其视为传统银行

490
00:15:46,929 --> 00:15:47,750
感谢你的见解

491
00:15:47,750 --> 00:15:48,230
卢

492
00:15:48,230 --> 00:15:52,110
请在评论区分享你的看法

493
00:15:52,110 --> 00:15:54,029
很想听听你对这家公司的观点

494
00:15:54,029 --> 00:15:56,789
别忘了订阅摩根大通频道

495
00:15:56,789 --> 00:15:57,990
感谢观看大家

496
00:15:57,990 --> 00:15:58,980
我们下次再见

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