为什么要学习货币、银行与金融市场？

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如果你关心自己的收入

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储蓄贷款投资工作机会

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甚至关心一家企业为什么能扩张

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一个国家为什么会通胀

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那么你就已经在关心货币银行与金融市场

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这个主题并不只属于银行家

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投资经理或经济学家

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它连接着每个人的日常生活

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房贷利率会影响买房成本

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股市波动会影响财富感受

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银行体系会影响资金能否流向真正需要他的人

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而货币政策则会影响物价

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就业与经济周期

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就是学习现代经济如何运转

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学习资金如何流动

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风险如何传递

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价格如何形成

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以及政策如何改变个人和企业的选择

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金融市场是资金从储蓄者流向借款者

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从暂时不用钱的人流向有投资机会的人手中的地方

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它直接影响个人财富

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企业决策

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也影响整个经济配置资源的效率

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金融市场中有几类市场特别重要

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债券市场决定了很多利率的形成

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股票市场影响企业融资与居民财富

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外汇市场则影响国际贸易

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跨境投资和一国货币的购买力

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所谓证券或者金融工具

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是对发行者未来收入或资产的一种索取权

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债券就是一种债务证券

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他承诺在特定时期内支付一定款项

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债务市场也常被统称为债券市场

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对经济活动非常重要

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企业和政府可以通过他介入资金

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用来投资建设

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扩张或维持公共支出

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同时债券市场也是利率形成的重要场所

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利率可以理解为借钱的成本

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也可以理解为资金使用权的价格

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经济中有很多种利率

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比如房贷利率

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车贷利率

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国债利率和公司债利率

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利率影响每个人的生活

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利率高时

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买房买车或经营企业的融资成本会上升

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人们可能推迟借款和消费

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利率高时

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储蓄的吸引力也会增加

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因为把收入存起来可以获得更高利息

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利率还会影响企业投资

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假如一家企业原本打算新建工厂

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但借款成本突然上升

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它可能会推迟投资

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这样一来

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新的就业机会也可能减少

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因此利率不是金融市场中的抽象数字

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它是连接消费者

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企业

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金融机构和宏观经济的重要变量

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不同利率通常会同向变动

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所以人们有时会笼统的说利率上升或利率下降

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但实际上

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短期国债

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长期国债和不同信用等级的公司债

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其利率水平可能差别很大

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例如信用质量较低或风险更高的债券

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通常需要支付更高利率才能吸引投资者持有

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风险越高

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投资者要求的补偿也越高

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二股票市场为什么重要

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普通股通常简称股票

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代表对一家公司的部分所有权

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股票是一种证券持有人

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拥有对公司盈利和资产的一种索取权

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公司发行股票并卖给公众

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是筹集资金的一种方式

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企业可以用这些资金建设厂房

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购买设备

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研发产品或者扩大经营

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股票市场是公司股权交易的地方

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在很多国家

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它都是最受关注的金融市场

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新闻节目经常报道股市大涨或大跌

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投资者也常常讨论市场接下来会向哪里走

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股票市场之所以受到如此多关注

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一个直接原因是它能让人的财富在短时间内显著增加

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也可能让财富迅速缩水

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股票价格非常容易波动

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历史上股市经历过长期上涨

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也经历过猛烈下跌

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比如1987年的黑色星期一中

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道琼斯工业平均指数单日大跌2000年前后的科技泡沫破裂

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也让股市大幅回落

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2007年至2009年的金融危机期间

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市场又经历了严重下跌

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2020年新冠疫情冲击下

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股市也曾快速下挫

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股票价格波动会影响居民财富

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当人们觉得自己更富有时

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消费意愿通常会增强

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当投资组合大幅缩水时

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人们可能减少支出

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推迟消费

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股票市场也影响企业投资

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股价较高时

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公司发行新股能够筹集更多资金

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投资项目更容易推进

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股价低迷时

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企业融资能力减弱

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扩张计划可能受到限制

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所以股票市场不只是投机和交易的场所

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它同时影响家庭财富

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金融市场之所以能够运转

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离不开银行和其他金融机构

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没有这些机构

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资金很难有效地从储蓄者手中流向有生产性投资机会的人和企业

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金融体系很复杂

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其中包括银行

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保险公司

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共同基金

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财务公司

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投资银行和养老基金等

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这些机构大多受到政府严格监管

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因为他们管理着大量公众资金

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也关系到经济稳定

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金融中介是理解金融体系的关键概念

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他们从储蓄者那里吸收资金

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再把资金带给需要资金的人或企业

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一个普通人如果想把钱借给大型企业

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通常不会直接去找公司总裁谈贷款

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更常见的方式是把钱存入银行

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购买基金或其他金融产品

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再由金融机构把资金配置给借款者

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银行是最常见的金融机构

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银行吸收存款并发放贷款

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商业银行储蓄贷款协会

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互助储蓄

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银行和信用合作社都可以被归入广义银行体系

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普通人与银行接触非常频繁

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买房需要房贷

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买车可能需要车贷

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日常收支需要支票账户或储蓄账户

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很多人的金融财富也以银行存款形式存在

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但银行并不是唯一重要的金融机构

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保险公司

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养老基金

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共同基金

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财务公司和投资银行也都在现代金融体系中扮演重要角色

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这些机构通过不同方式管理资产和负债

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承担风险

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获取收益

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并把资金引向不同的经济用途

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理解它们的运行方式

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有助于理解资金价格

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信用扩张和金融稳定

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它可能来自监管变化

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市场竞争

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也可能来自信息技术进步

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电子金融

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线上支付

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网络银行

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证券化产品和复杂衍生品

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创新可以降低交易成本

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提高服务效率

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也可以帮助金融机构获得更高利润

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当市场参与者没有充分理解产品结构风险暴露和激励机制时

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创新可能放大杠杆

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隐藏风险

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并在压力时期造成严重后果

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金融危机就是金融体系突然失灵的状态

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它通常表现为资产价格大幅下跌

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金融机构和非金融企业大量受损甚至倒闭

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信贷活动收缩

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经济增长受到严重打击

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金融危机并不是现代经济偶然出现的异常现象

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几个世纪以来

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资本主义经济反复经历金融恐慌

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银行挤兑

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资产泡沫破裂和信贷崩塌

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2007年开始的美国金融危机就是一个重要例子

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次级住房抵押贷款违约上升

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引发金融机构巨大损失

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导致多家银行倒闭

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也使贝尔斯登和雷曼兄弟等大型投资银行走向终结

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这场危机随后演变为大衰退

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它说明金融体系一旦出现系统性问题

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影响会迅速从金融市场传导到就业

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消费投资和整个实体经济

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学习银行和金融机构不只是学习他们如何盈利

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以及监管为什么重要

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货币或者说货币供给是指被普遍接受

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可用于购买商品和服务或偿还债务的东西

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货币与许多经济变量密切相关

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而这些变量会影响每个人的生活

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货币与经济周期有关

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经济周期是总产出在扩张与收缩之间的波动

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当产出上升时

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找工作通常更容易

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当产出下降时

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失业上升

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收入压力也会加大

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历史经验显示

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这暗示货币变化可能是推动经济周期波动的重要因素之一

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不过货币增长下降并不一定总会导致衰退

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因此不能把它理解成唯一原因

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货币还与通货膨胀密切相关

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通货膨胀是总体价格水平的持续上升

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它会影响家庭购买力

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企业成本

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政府财政也会成为政治和政策讨论中的核心问题

213
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:07,500
过去几十年里

214
00:10:07,500 --> 00:10:11,049
许多商品和服务的价格明显高于从前

215
00:10:11,049 --> 00:10:12,029
电影票

216
00:10:12,029 --> 00:10:13,470
餐饮住房

217
00:10:13,470 --> 00:10:15,570
医疗和教育的价格变化

218
00:10:15,570 --> 00:10:19,328
都会让人直观感受到货币购买力的变化

219
00:10:19,328 --> 00:10:23,159
价格水平和货币供给常常一起上升

220
00:10:23,159 --> 00:10:25,379
很多国家的经验也显示

221
00:10:25,379 --> 00:10:30,429
货币增长率较高的经济体往往更容易经历较高通胀

222
00:10:30,429 --> 00:10:31,690
正因为如此

223
00:10:31,690 --> 00:10:34,789
经济学家米尔顿弗里德曼曾提出

224
00:10:34,789 --> 00:10:36,309
通胀在任何时候

225
00:10:36,309 --> 00:10:39,190
任何地方都是一种货币现象

226
00:10:39,190 --> 00:10:43,440
这句话不意味着每一次价格上涨都只有一个原因

227
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:44,559
能源冲击

228
00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:45,600
供给瓶颈

229
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:49,559
税收变化和汇率波动都可能影响价格

230
00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:53,539
但如果价格水平长期持续普遍上升

231
00:10:53,539 --> 00:10:58,200
货币供给和货币政策通常很难被排除在解释之外

232
00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,259
货币也影响利率

233
00:11:00,259 --> 00:11:02,919
20世纪60年代和70年代

234
00:11:02,919 --> 00:11:05,240
美国货币增长率上升时

235
00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:08,129
长期债券利率也随之上升

236
00:11:08,129 --> 00:11:09,889
但1980年以后

237
00:11:09,889 --> 00:11:13,740
货币增长与利率之间的关系变得不那么清晰

238
00:11:13,740 --> 00:11:14,960
这提醒我们

239
00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,960
金融变量之间的关系不是机械的

240
00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,340
利率不仅受货币供给影响

241
00:11:20,340 --> 00:11:21,700
还受通胀预期

242
00:11:21,700 --> 00:11:22,700
经济增长

243
00:11:22,700 --> 00:11:23,759
财政状况

244
00:11:23,759 --> 00:11:27,559
央行政策可信度和全球资本流动影响

245
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,600
六中央银行与政策选择

246
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,440
因为货币会影响通胀产出

247
00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:34,720
就业和利率

248
00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:39,019
各国政府和政策制定者都高度关注货币政策

249
00:11:39,019 --> 00:11:43,019
货币政策是对货币和利率的管理负责

250
00:11:43,019 --> 00:11:46,309
执行货币政策的机构是中央银行

251
00:11:46,309 --> 00:11:49,549
美国的中央银行是联邦储备体系

252
00:11:49,549 --> 00:11:51,970
也就是人们常说的美联储

253
00:11:51,970 --> 00:11:58,450
中央银行可以通过多种方式影响经济中的货币数量和利率水平

254
00:11:58,450 --> 00:12:02,029
他的政策选择会影响银行体系的流动性

255
00:12:02,029 --> 00:12:03,309
企业融资成本

256
00:12:03,309 --> 00:12:06,339
居民借贷意愿和金融市场预期

257
00:12:06,339 --> 00:12:10,038
财政政策也会与货币政策发生关系

258
00:12:10,038 --> 00:12:13,470
财政政策涉及政府支出和税收

259
00:12:13,470 --> 00:12:17,870
政府支出超过税收收入时就形成预算赤字

260
00:12:17,870 --> 00:12:20,269
税收收入超过政府支出时

261
00:12:20,269 --> 00:12:22,289
则形成预算盈余

262
00:12:22,289 --> 00:12:24,549
政府出现预算赤字时

263
00:12:24,549 --> 00:12:26,859
需要通过借款融资

264
00:12:26,859 --> 00:12:28,879
持续的大规模赤字

265
00:12:28,879 --> 00:12:31,058
可能影响政府债务负担

266
00:12:31,058 --> 00:12:32,558
也可能影响利率

267
00:12:32,558 --> 00:12:35,519
通胀预期和货币政策空间

268
00:12:35,519 --> 00:12:37,960
因此理解货币政策时

269
00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,750
也不能完全忽视财政政策

270
00:12:40,750 --> 00:12:43,649
两者共同影响宏观经济环境

271
00:12:43,649 --> 00:12:47,509
并通过金融市场影响个人和企业选择

272
00:12:50,509 --> 00:12:52,389
金融市场的全球化

273
00:12:52,389 --> 00:12:55,220
让各国经济联系更加紧密

274
00:12:55,220 --> 00:12:58,299
美国公司可以在外国金融市场借款

275
00:12:58,299 --> 00:13:01,669
外国公司也可以在美国金融市场融资

276
00:13:01,669 --> 00:13:06,190
大型银行和金融机构往往在多个国家经营业务

277
00:13:06,190 --> 00:13:09,450
当资金从一个国家流向另一个国家时

278
00:13:09,450 --> 00:13:11,870
通常需要进行货币兑换

279
00:13:11,870 --> 00:13:15,490
外汇市场就是完成这种兑换的地方

280
00:13:15,490 --> 00:13:17,590
外汇市场非常重要

281
00:13:17,590 --> 00:13:19,289
因为它决定汇率

282
00:13:19,289 --> 00:13:20,909
汇率是一国货币

283
00:13:20,909 --> 00:13:23,169
用另一国货币表示的价格

284
00:13:23,169 --> 00:13:25,190
比如美元相对于欧元

285
00:13:25,190 --> 00:13:27,450
日元或人民币的价格

286
00:13:27,450 --> 00:13:30,629
汇率变化会直接影响消费者

287
00:13:30,629 --> 00:13:32,289
假如美元贬值

288
00:13:32,289 --> 00:13:36,629
美国人购买欧洲商品或去欧洲旅行就会更贵

289
00:13:36,629 --> 00:13:38,009
如果美元升值

290
00:13:38,009 --> 00:13:41,690
进口商品和海外旅行则会相对便宜

291
00:13:41,690 --> 00:13:44,399
汇率也会影响企业竞争力

292
00:13:44,399 --> 00:13:48,259
强势美元会让美国出口商品在海外变贵

293
00:13:48,259 --> 00:13:51,818
可能减少外国消费者对美国商品的需求

294
00:13:51,818 --> 00:13:52,759
若是美元

295
00:13:52,759 --> 00:13:57,158
则会让美国商品在国际市场上更有价格竞争力

296
00:13:57,158 --> 00:14:01,600
因此汇率波动不仅改变旅游成本和进口价格

297
00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,659
也影响出口企业收入

298
00:14:03,659 --> 00:14:06,990
就业机会和整个经济的外部平衡

299
00:14:06,990 --> 00:14:10,379
国际资本流动也会影响国内经济

300
00:14:10,379 --> 00:14:12,580
资本跨境流动规模越大

301
00:14:12,580 --> 00:14:16,580
一个国家的金融体系就越容易受到全球利率

302
00:14:16,580 --> 00:14:20,519
汇率风险偏好和国际政策变化的影响

303
00:14:20,519 --> 00:14:25,318
这也是为什么国际金融不能被看作遥远的领域

304
00:14:25,318 --> 00:14:27,639
他已经通过汇率贸易

305
00:14:27,639 --> 00:14:31,639
资本流动和资产价格进入普通人的生活

306
00:14:31,639 --> 00:14:36,019
八这门知识如何帮助个人和职业发展

307
00:14:38,899 --> 00:14:43,220
能够直接帮助金融行业从业者理解自己的工作

308
00:14:43,220 --> 00:14:46,620
金融机构是许多经济体中的重要雇主

309
00:14:46,620 --> 00:14:48,919
相关知识有助于进入银行

310
00:14:48,919 --> 00:14:50,950
证券基金保险

311
00:14:50,950 --> 00:14:53,730
风险管理和金融科技等领域

312
00:14:53,730 --> 00:14:55,690
即使你不在金融行业

313
00:14:55,690 --> 00:14:57,740
这些知识仍然有用

314
00:14:57,740 --> 00:14:58,779
作为雇员

315
00:14:58,779 --> 00:14:59,960
企业经营者

316
00:14:59,960 --> 00:15:01,600
投资者或借款人

317
00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,399
你都需要理解利率

318
00:15:03,399 --> 00:15:06,179
信贷风险和政策变化

319
00:15:06,179 --> 00:15:10,980
理解货币政策可以帮助你判断利率可能上升还是下降

320
00:15:10,980 --> 00:15:15,090
从而思考现在借款更合适还是等待更合适

321
00:15:15,090 --> 00:15:18,009
理解银行管理和金融机构行为

322
00:15:18,009 --> 00:15:22,940
可以帮助你在贷款储蓄或投资时做出更有利的选择

323
00:15:22,940 --> 00:15:27,730
理解金融市场则有助于做出更稳健的投资决策

324
00:15:27,730 --> 00:15:29,730
无论是管理自己的资产

325
00:15:29,730 --> 00:15:31,809
还是为公司做财务规划

326
00:15:31,809 --> 00:15:36,210
你都需要理解市场价格背后的信息预期和风险

327
00:15:36,210 --> 00:15:40,669
这门学科真正有价值的地方不在于记住一堆术语

328
00:15:40,669 --> 00:15:43,179
而在于建立一种经济思维

329
00:15:43,179 --> 00:15:45,559
它帮助你用供给与需求

330
00:15:45,559 --> 00:15:46,779
风险与收益

331
00:15:46,779 --> 00:15:47,860
激励与约束

332
00:15:47,860 --> 00:15:51,080
信息与不确定性来理解现实世界

333
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,330
九把主题连起来

334
00:15:53,330 --> 00:15:57,889
货币银行和金融市场看似是三个不同领域

335
00:15:57,889 --> 00:16:00,659
其实是同一个系统的不同侧面

336
00:16:00,659 --> 00:16:03,299
金融市场负责定价和交易

337
00:16:03,299 --> 00:16:08,490
银行与金融机构负责中介信用创造和风险转换

338
00:16:08,490 --> 00:16:12,450
货币与中央银行政策则影响流动性利率

339
00:16:12,450 --> 00:16:14,470
通胀和经济周期

340
00:16:14,470 --> 00:16:18,429
债券市场告诉我们借款成本如何形成

341
00:16:18,429 --> 00:16:23,279
股票市场告诉我们企业价值与融资能力如何变化

342
00:16:23,279 --> 00:16:28,039
银行体系告诉我们储蓄如何转化为贷款和投资

343
00:16:28,039 --> 00:16:29,080
货币政策

344
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,879
告诉我们经济中的资金环境如何影响价格

345
00:16:32,879 --> 00:16:34,328
就业与增长

346
00:16:34,328 --> 00:16:38,659
外汇市场则把国内经济放进全球背景中

347
00:16:38,659 --> 00:16:43,759
一个国家的货币价值既影响消费者购买进口商品的成本

348
00:16:43,759 --> 00:16:47,389
也影响企业在世界市场上的竞争力

349
00:16:47,389 --> 00:16:49,549
如果金融市场运行良好

350
00:16:49,549 --> 00:16:52,070
资金更容易流向高效率用途

351
00:16:52,070 --> 00:16:53,659
企业更容易投资

352
00:16:53,659 --> 00:16:54,200
家庭

353
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:55,740
更容易平滑消费

354
00:16:55,740 --> 00:16:57,679
经济也更容易增长

355
00:16:57,679 --> 00:17:00,159
相反如果金融体系失灵

356
00:17:00,159 --> 00:17:01,320
信用会收缩

357
00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,019
资产价格会下跌

358
00:17:03,019 --> 00:17:05,690
企业和家庭都会受到冲击

359
00:17:08,470 --> 00:17:13,170
银行与金融市场是理解现代经济的入口之一

360
00:17:13,170 --> 00:17:16,509
他解释为什么利率会影响买房和创业

361
00:17:16,509 --> 00:17:19,640
为什么股市波动会改变财富和消费

362
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,059
为什么银行既重要又脆弱

363
00:17:22,059 --> 00:17:24,279
为什么通胀会侵蚀购买力

364
00:17:24,279 --> 00:17:27,980
为什么中央银行的决定会牵动全球市场

365
00:17:27,980 --> 00:17:31,319
它也帮助我们看懂新闻背后的逻辑

366
00:17:31,319 --> 00:17:33,359
当你听到加息降息

367
00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:34,700
通胀衰退

368
00:17:34,700 --> 00:17:35,349
汇率

369
00:17:36,470 --> 00:17:38,920
银行危机或股市暴跌时

370
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,119
你不再只是看到孤立事件

371
00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:45,500
而是能把它们放进一个相互连接的金融体系中理解

372
00:17:49,470 --> 00:17:51,549
它不仅帮助我们理解经济

373
00:17:51,549 --> 00:17:54,430
也帮助我们更好地管理自己的生活

374
00:17:54,430 --> 00:17:56,750
职业和未来选择

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