【Meet Kevin】油价跳水，川普突然“认怂”？伊朗反向威胁奏效背后的真相

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唐纳德·特朗普刚刚否定了对伊朗基础设施发动四次八小时打击的威胁

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伊朗基础设施

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这意味着四次八小时打击计划已取消并从议程中撤下

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美国所有军事行动现已暂停五天

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唐纳德·特朗普援引与伊朗的谈判

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现在我们之所以用引号强调

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因为嗯

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可以说伊朗此前发出了一些非常疯狂的威胁

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就在唐纳德·特朗普立场反转之前

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其中一条威胁指向购买美债者将遭打击

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昨天深夜十一点左右

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我在查看期货数据时突然想到

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哦这

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我说

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期货走势并不总能准确反映交易方向

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但我在债券市场观察期货时突然意识到

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天啊

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我们正飙升突破四个百分点

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十年期国债收益率突破4%

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我心想

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这可不是好消息

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人们已经开始在期货市场抛售美债

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因特朗普的言论引发

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但这还不止于此

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呃

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伊朗威胁称

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美债浸染着伊朗人的鲜血

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购买它们

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等于对你的总部和资产发起打击

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这简直疯狂

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这些更像是情绪化的激烈威胁

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因唐纳德·特朗普发出的针对伊朗能源设施的四次八小时打击威胁

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呃

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但如今又有新威胁出现

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有人称之为虚假旗号行动

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但其他人表示并非如此

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伊朗确实拥有远程导弹武器

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并有机会对欧洲纵深地区发动打击

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在此之上还有这一层

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呃

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关于伊朗

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他在特朗普威胁面前丝毫没有退让

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相反伊朗正在加倍施压

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国防委员会

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威胁要在波斯湾布设更多水雷

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如果沿海岛屿遭袭

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我们将对沿海岛屿发起攻击

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所以

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换句话说

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这个想法就是说好吧

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我们在霍尔木兹海峡释放更多思维

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这能让封锁持续更久

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昨天我们谈到水雷的潜在威胁

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嗯，可以附着在货船上

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嗯

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其实这是二战时期就使用过的策略

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嗯

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我相信在二战期间

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但有一种叫做

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飞腾水雷

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这些是带有手柄的大圆球

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里面有一个巨型磁铁

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基本上装满C4炸药

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有人驾驶快艇就能直接砸到货船侧面

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军队很难应对

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因为这些人伪装成渔民

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划船游荡

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你知道的

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渔船靠近货船时

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放下钓竿

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快艇冲过去砰的一声

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C4炸药附着得相当疯狂

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总之

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过去两天四小时内局势急剧升级

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伊朗明显不打算退让

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在特朗普的四十八小时观察期

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甚至可能加大攻击力度

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伊朗或许只是纸老虎

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但另一方面

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他们确实一直在加强打击

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派特

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派特

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赫格塞斯仍在使用数据

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显示无人机和导弹发射器已减少90%

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从战争第一天到第八天确实如此

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特朗普五天暂停的提议源于

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特朗普声称正在与伊朗进行

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建设性对话

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他说

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引用

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我很高兴报告美国

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注意

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他没说‘我’

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他说‘美国’

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公平地说这早已在发生

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我稍后会解释

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不过无论如何

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请报告美国和伊朗两国

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在过去的两天里

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进行了非常良好且富有成效的

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呃

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关于彻底解决中东敌对行动的会谈

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基于这些深入对话的基调和内容

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详细且建设性的讨论

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这些讨论将在本周继续进行

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并对伊朗的能源设施和发电厂发动的所有军事打击实施五天暂停

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所以再说一次

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这些只是针对伊朗发电厂和能源设施的五天冻结打击

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我之前在视频中没有明确说明这一点

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呃

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所以我可能暗示所有打击都将停止

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我想对此明确说明

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以持续会议和讨论的成功为前提

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感谢您关注此事

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唐纳德·特朗普

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好的

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这正是唐纳德·特朗普的典型模式

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我们先是获得解放

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然后我们将有90天暂停期

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我们曾多次暂停并延长暂停期以达成协议和谈判

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但伊朗称特朗普的媒体声明是心理战

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伊朗表示并未进行谈判

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与特朗普之间没有任何谈判

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这两者可能同时成立

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国际原子能机构

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呃

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美国已通过秘密渠道尝试与伊朗沟通

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且部分秘密渠道已收到回应

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这表明可以做出这一论点延伸

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美国和伊朗的下属人员可能已进行某种形式的沟通

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这有点像

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还记得我们之前的谈判

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基本上整个二月

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在实际打击开始前

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这些人很可能交换了手机号码

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并互相发送短信

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喂兄弟

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你觉得我们能恢复谈判吗

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唐纳德·特朗普似乎在采纳这一想法

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哦

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好的

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美国有人已与伊朗进行过对话

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好的听起来不错

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嗯

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让我们以这作为推迟这一四八小时威胁的基础

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鉴于伊朗显然在激烈反应

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甚至更糟

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值得注意的是就在刚才

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这

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特朗普的这一政策转变

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伊朗宣布将打击所有能源设施

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科技和海水淡化基础设施在该地区并极为重要

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尤其是对沙特而言

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也门并不使用大量细节

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但沙特阿拉伯

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确实如此

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是的

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他们更富裕

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国家和海水淡化

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实际上非常昂贵的海水淡化

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但无论如何当把这些综合起来

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确实让人不禁怀疑

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这难道只是提前的塔可星期二吗

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显然短期内的好消息是

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嗯

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油价因此事暴跌

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这很好

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如果你看看这里

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可以看到油价

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已跌至约一百一十一美元

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下跌了约7.5%

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这很好

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十年期国债收益率

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大致处于

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周五早上的水平

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尚未充分反映

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这一政策反转

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嗯

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降至约四点

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三六水平

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今日市场最大风险在于

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机构是否会相信特朗普的政策转向

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还是我们将看到油价下跌引发抛售

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以及利率下跌日内反转

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这将是重点观察对象

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同时密切关注油价

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和债券市场将是关键

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早间

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将为我们提供线索

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比特币的初期反应热情

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几乎直线上涨至我的黄色线71246

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上涨至71335

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可以看到比特币部分情绪已在此达顶

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同样在加密货币接近595线

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呃

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正在回落

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现在又开始回升了

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盘前交易

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这对判断市场走势帮助不大

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稍后在阿尔法报告中我们将讨论具体策略和预测

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以及今日的行动计划

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但天啊

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唐纳德·特朗普塔可包又来了

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我不是要暗示特朗普在说谎

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但我要告诉你会有一方人声称

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特朗普全是胡扯

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他看到了市场的期货

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呃

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对于债市而言

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今日股市和油价可能面临惨烈抛售

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因此特朗普需要急转直下挽救市场和同伙

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持有长期仓位

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换句话说他可能在编造实质性会谈

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只是利用本就存在的名义性会谈

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另一方面

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也有可能伊朗在说谎

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或许实际确有会谈在进行

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但他们需要维护国内颜面

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显得自己没有屈服于美国

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绝对真相

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我们可能永远不得而知

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为什么不把这些信息公开宣传

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我觉得没人知道这件事

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我们试试广告看看效果如何

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恭喜兄弟

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你做得太多了

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大家

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爱你

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大家

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敬佩你

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凯文·帕弗拉特在此

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金融分析师兼YouTuber

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认识凯文

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很高兴听到你的观点

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