BV1M1PyzNEAX · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:03,359 --> 00:00:03,640 你好 2 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:04,679 我是苏珊·杰文斯基 3 00:00:04,679 --> 00:00:08,359 欢迎收听晨间滤镜播客的特别加更版 4 00:00:08,359 --> 00:00:12,720 作为我们的忠实观众和听众大家都知道我们正在推出特别加更版播客 5 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:16,620 与晨星公司的多位专家坐下来讨论话题 6 00:00:16,620 --> 00:00:18,809 这些话题正是你们希望我们深入探讨的 7 00:00:18,809 --> 00:00:19,129 所以 8 00:00:19,129 --> 00:00:21,129 如果你有特别加更版的创意 9 00:00:21,129 --> 00:00:23,370 请通过我们的邮箱联系我们 10 00:00:23,370 --> 00:00:26,269 邮箱地址是晨间滤镜@晨星 11 00:00:26,269 --> 00:00:27,230 com 12 00:00:27,230 --> 00:00:30,969 今天的特别加更版聚焦于我的同事 13 00:00:33,549 --> 00:00:35,229 那就是伯克希尔哈撒韦 14 00:00:35,229 --> 00:00:37,729 现在正是谈论伯克希尔的好时机 15 00:00:37,729 --> 00:00:40,229 沃伦·巴菲特卸任ceo 16 00:00:40,229 --> 00:00:41,369 去年年底 17 00:00:41,369 --> 00:00:44,409 未来充满诸多不确定性 18 00:00:44,409 --> 00:00:48,170 今天我很荣幸邀请到一位对伯克希尔哈撒韦更为了解的人 19 00:00:48,170 --> 00:00:49,229 比大多数人更了解 20 00:00:49,229 --> 00:00:50,009 他就是格雷格 21 00:00:50,009 --> 00:00:52,799 格雷格·沃伦是晨星公司的高级分析师 22 00:00:52,799 --> 00:00:55,009 负责覆盖伯克希尔哈撒韦 23 00:00:55,009 --> 00:00:55,450 嗯 24 00:00:55,450 --> 00:00:55,689 格雷格 25 00:00:55,689 --> 00:00:58,149 感谢您的到来欢迎回到晨间滤镜 26 00:00:58,149 --> 00:01:01,429 我们通常在伯克希尔年会后与您交流 27 00:01:01,429 --> 00:01:03,359 但今天有很多内容要讨论 28 00:01:03,359 --> 00:01:06,120 所以我们决定不等到那时就邀请您 29 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:07,120 感谢您的参与 30 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:07,579 是的 31 00:01:07,579 --> 00:01:10,530 我们开始录制前聊过 32 00:01:10,530 --> 00:01:11,370 我说道 33 00:01:11,370 --> 00:01:14,590 我似乎从未见过您不是晨星的 34 00:01:14,590 --> 00:01:15,090 伯克希尔 35 00:01:15,090 --> 00:01:15,530 哈撒韦 36 00:01:15,530 --> 00:01:15,909 分析师 37 00:01:15,909 --> 00:01:18,549 所以您为我们覆盖这家公司多久了 38 00:01:18,549 --> 00:01:19,189 让我想想 39 00:01:19,189 --> 00:01:22,209 我相信我们最早的报告 40 00:01:22,209 --> 00:01:25,109 或者至少是我第一份报告发布于2010年12月 41 00:01:25,109 --> 00:01:28,049 所以从那时算起已有十五年多 42 00:01:28,049 --> 00:01:28,489 好的 43 00:01:28,489 --> 00:01:32,310 所以在疫情爆发前 44 00:01:32,310 --> 00:01:33,969 您曾是伯克希尔年会选择的三名分析师之一 45 00:01:33,969 --> 00:01:39,079 得以参与年度会议的分析师小组 46 00:01:39,079 --> 00:01:43,319 因此有机会向巴菲特和芒格提问 47 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:44,280 提出过哪些问题 48 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,549 所以为什么 49 00:01:47,549 --> 00:01:50,069 您认为自己成为幸运的三人之一的原因 50 00:01:50,069 --> 00:01:51,909 这确实是一个伯克希尔的过程 51 00:01:51,909 --> 00:01:55,420 他们实际上在2012年引入了分析师小组 52 00:01:55,420 --> 00:01:57,420 他们早已建立了记者小组 53 00:01:57,420 --> 00:01:59,140 但他们想引入一些分析师 54 00:01:59,140 --> 00:02:04,280 我认为巴菲特的关键目标是获得更多公司 55 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:05,959 具体问题融入讨论 56 00:02:05,959 --> 00:02:09,629 因为此前的问答环节主要由股东主导 57 00:02:09,629 --> 00:02:11,270 容易偏离主题 58 00:02:11,270 --> 00:02:13,530 从这个角度看这是他的目标 59 00:02:13,530 --> 00:02:17,269 不幸的是第一年他们引入了三家卖方保险分析师 60 00:02:17,269 --> 00:02:19,028 他们深入探讨细节 61 00:02:19,028 --> 00:02:19,449 是的 62 00:02:19,449 --> 00:02:20,490 确实 63 00:02:20,490 --> 00:02:22,710 股东们有很多抱怨 64 00:02:22,710 --> 00:02:25,009 这简直挑刺不断 65 00:02:25,009 --> 00:02:26,250 你知道的 66 00:02:26,250 --> 00:02:28,579 你知道那些并不真正 67 00:02:28,579 --> 00:02:31,399 偏离巴菲特希望的对话方向 68 00:02:31,399 --> 00:02:33,879 第二年他引入了买方分析师 69 00:02:33,879 --> 00:02:37,539 还召回了一位卖方分析师并计划轮换 70 00:02:37,539 --> 00:02:39,919 然后引入了伯克希尔黑熊 71 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:41,560 不幸的是 72 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:45,620 伯克希尔黑熊没帮自己 73 00:02:45,620 --> 00:02:47,080 他没提出真正尖锐的问题 74 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,180 他基本有点哗众取宠 75 00:02:49,180 --> 00:02:52,419 这在某种程度上是失败的 76 00:02:52,419 --> 00:02:55,699 但买方和卖方分析师的参与是好的 77 00:02:55,699 --> 00:02:59,269 在这期间我们与伯克希尔保持沟通 78 00:02:59,269 --> 00:02:59,709 你知道的 79 00:02:59,709 --> 00:03:00,808 伯克希尔说看吧 80 00:03:00,808 --> 00:03:02,549 你知道我们覆盖你们 81 00:03:02,549 --> 00:03:04,240 你知道你们熟悉他们的业务 82 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:05,120 他们说好吧 83 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:05,159 嗯 84 00:03:05,159 --> 00:03:07,719 我们会将你纳入保险分析师轮换 85 00:03:07,719 --> 00:03:09,539 但我们继续坚持 86 00:03:09,539 --> 00:03:10,860 我们是独立研究机构 87 00:03:10,860 --> 00:03:14,460 能在买方和卖方之间填补空白 88 00:03:14,460 --> 00:03:17,079 他们在2014年给了我们机会 89 00:03:17,079 --> 00:03:18,938 你知道我们表现不错 90 00:03:18,938 --> 00:03:21,459 之后持续稳定表现 91 00:03:21,459 --> 00:03:23,938 就像乔纳森·布兰特在买方的表现 92 00:03:23,938 --> 00:03:26,539 我们每年都被邀请回来 93 00:03:26,539 --> 00:03:27,300 现在 94 00:03:27,300 --> 00:03:28,719 这有点令人失望 95 00:03:28,719 --> 00:03:29,280 你知道的 96 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:30,719 他们对我们来说 97 00:03:30,719 --> 00:03:31,180 你知道的 98 00:03:31,180 --> 00:03:32,340 直接取消小组吧 99 00:03:32,340 --> 00:03:34,650 你知道部分与科维特有关 100 00:03:34,650 --> 00:03:35,689 所以它只是 101 00:03:35,689 --> 00:03:36,069 你知道他们 102 00:03:36,069 --> 00:03:37,490 他们想做一些改变 103 00:03:37,490 --> 00:03:39,629 但当我现在看 104 00:03:39,629 --> 00:03:41,189 你知道他们不再有那个小组 105 00:03:41,189 --> 00:03:43,169 甚至没有记者小组 106 00:03:43,169 --> 00:03:44,629 所以几乎就像那个 107 00:03:44,629 --> 00:03:48,259 问答环节的价值 108 00:03:48,259 --> 00:03:50,669 我觉得在我的观点中有所下降 109 00:03:50,669 --> 00:03:51,430 所以你知道 110 00:03:51,430 --> 00:03:53,150 鉴于你曾是小组成员 111 00:03:53,150 --> 00:03:55,550 你知道在你的时间里有哪些事情 112 00:03:55,550 --> 00:03:57,870 参加会议并提出这些问题 113 00:03:57,870 --> 00:04:01,750 关于沃伦和查理让你印象最深的是什么 114 00:04:01,750 --> 00:04:04,400 可能是最突出的，或者只是会议整体 115 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:04,900 嗯 116 00:04:04,900 --> 00:04:08,240 你知道我们总是试图避免被花生糖砸到 117 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:09,560 是查理做的 118 00:04:10,759 --> 00:04:13,139 你知道我总是告诉乔纳森，我就像说 119 00:04:13,139 --> 00:04:17,959 你知道我的目标是不问愚蠢的问题 120 00:04:17,959 --> 00:04:20,519 以及不重复提问 121 00:04:20,519 --> 00:04:22,278 所以你知道必须勤奋 122 00:04:22,278 --> 00:04:23,079 必须专注 123 00:04:23,079 --> 00:04:24,738 你知道我们参加会议时 124 00:04:24,738 --> 00:04:27,540 手里有十到二十五个问题 125 00:04:27,540 --> 00:04:29,980 尽管每年只能提六个 126 00:04:29,980 --> 00:04:30,899 嗯 127 00:04:30,899 --> 00:04:35,500 但总体而言我一直觉得这是有益的练习 128 00:04:35,500 --> 00:04:36,560 作为分析师 129 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:42,279 因为你知道这家公司几乎从不与人交流 130 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:42,779 你知道 131 00:04:42,779 --> 00:04:45,680 所以你总是在对话中寻找关键信息 132 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,538 与媒体或在会议上 133 00:04:48,538 --> 00:04:53,019 而我们的目标就是获取这类信息 134 00:04:53,019 --> 00:04:54,509 从查理或沃伦那里 135 00:04:54,509 --> 00:04:56,189 多年来我们得到了不少 136 00:04:56,189 --> 00:04:56,829 所以我说这是 137 00:04:56,829 --> 00:04:57,110 这确实 138 00:04:57,110 --> 00:04:59,170 在我们看来一直是非常有价值的练习 139 00:04:59,170 --> 00:04:59,750 我说 140 00:04:59,750 --> 00:05:00,310 希望 141 00:05:00,310 --> 00:05:01,689 随着时间推移 142 00:05:01,689 --> 00:05:03,410 你知道他们继续举办 143 00:05:03,410 --> 00:05:03,769 嗯 144 00:05:03,769 --> 00:05:04,250 会议 145 00:05:04,250 --> 00:05:04,529 你知道 146 00:05:04,529 --> 00:05:05,288 这确实 147 00:05:05,288 --> 00:05:05,908 你知道 148 00:05:05,908 --> 00:05:06,709 规模不小 149 00:05:06,709 --> 00:05:08,569 我希望看到他们 150 00:05:08,569 --> 00:05:10,009 把面板调回来 151 00:05:10,009 --> 00:05:15,269 是啊，那我们稍微聊聊去年的年度会议吧 152 00:05:15,269 --> 00:05:19,879 我知道我们俩当时各自在家观看并收听的 153 00:05:19,879 --> 00:05:21,120 嗯 154 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:22,439 你知道的 155 00:05:22,439 --> 00:05:26,839 沃伦在五月二十五日会议结束时突然宣布了重大消息 156 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:29,990 他将在二十五年末退休 157 00:05:29,990 --> 00:05:31,470 你感到意外吗 158 00:05:31,470 --> 00:05:32,230 是的 159 00:05:32,230 --> 00:05:32,649 是的 160 00:05:32,649 --> 00:05:33,509 我觉得震惊 161 00:05:33,509 --> 00:05:34,449 可能更强烈 162 00:05:34,449 --> 00:05:35,769 我是说 163 00:05:35,769 --> 00:05:36,310 你知道的 164 00:05:36,310 --> 00:05:39,529 我接触过的所有人，无论是到场的还是观看的 165 00:05:39,529 --> 00:05:41,389 你知道我联系过的人 166 00:05:41,389 --> 00:05:42,350 大家反应都差不多 167 00:05:42,350 --> 00:05:43,670 我们完全没想到 168 00:05:43,670 --> 00:05:45,449 他保密做得相当到位 169 00:05:45,449 --> 00:05:47,259 这确实令人印象深刻 170 00:05:47,259 --> 00:05:47,899 嗯 171 00:05:47,899 --> 00:05:48,259 你知道的 172 00:05:48,259 --> 00:05:49,639 考虑到你明白的 173 00:05:49,639 --> 00:05:50,678 嗯 174 00:05:50,678 --> 00:05:51,259 你知道的 175 00:05:51,259 --> 00:05:53,918 很多事情总会在某个时候泄露 176 00:05:53,918 --> 00:05:54,278 事实上 177 00:05:54,278 --> 00:05:56,259 阿贝尔将担任CEO的消息 178 00:05:56,259 --> 00:05:56,798 你知道的 179 00:05:56,798 --> 00:05:57,399 查理·芒格 180 00:05:57,399 --> 00:05:58,259 这些信息在会议上悄然流出 181 00:05:58,259 --> 00:05:59,240 对啊 182 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:03,220 他们能保持如此低调确实令人佩服 183 00:06:03,220 --> 00:06:05,420 嗯 是的 184 00:06:05,420 --> 00:06:05,839 我是说 185 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,079 我们一直认为 186 00:06:08,079 --> 00:06:09,620 必须把他抬出去才能罢休 187 00:06:09,620 --> 00:06:12,800 他会一直工作到完成为止 188 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:13,160 嗯 189 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:14,379 总之 190 00:06:14,379 --> 00:06:16,420 当他公开表示 191 00:06:16,420 --> 00:06:17,339 我要退下了 192 00:06:17,339 --> 00:06:18,980 这完全出乎意料 193 00:06:18,980 --> 00:06:19,560 嗯 194 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:20,740 他还会继续在场 195 00:06:20,740 --> 00:06:22,100 仍会在办公室工作 196 00:06:22,100 --> 00:06:24,139 仍会作为格雷格的顾问 197 00:06:24,139 --> 00:06:27,910 但看到他突然宣布确实令人震惊 198 00:06:27,910 --> 00:06:28,329 是的 199 00:06:28,329 --> 00:06:28,629 嗯 200 00:06:28,629 --> 00:06:29,029 然后是什么 201 00:06:29,029 --> 00:06:29,350 哦 202 00:06:29,350 --> 00:06:31,129 但我也有种感觉 203 00:06:31,129 --> 00:06:31,709 你知道的 204 00:06:31,709 --> 00:06:33,939 格雷格都六十多岁了 205 00:06:33,939 --> 00:06:34,199 现在 206 00:06:34,199 --> 00:06:37,499 我觉得现在做出改变可能很重要 207 00:06:37,499 --> 00:06:37,959 因为我说啊 208 00:06:37,959 --> 00:06:40,338 他一直以来的目标就是有人能一直陪伴在身边 209 00:06:40,338 --> 00:06:42,750 能长期在身边对吧 210 00:06:42,750 --> 00:06:44,149 你知道的，还有持续性 211 00:06:44,149 --> 00:06:44,449 是啊 212 00:06:44,449 --> 00:06:45,610 继续努力 213 00:06:45,610 --> 00:06:46,029 你知道的 214 00:06:46,029 --> 00:06:47,199 拖延下去 215 00:06:47,199 --> 00:06:48,839 我说这简直 216 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:50,379 会逐渐压缩时间框架 217 00:06:50,379 --> 00:06:50,860 是的 218 00:06:50,860 --> 00:06:52,699 那我们来聊聊格雷格·埃贝尔 219 00:06:52,699 --> 00:06:53,100 他 220 00:06:53,100 --> 00:06:56,220 你知道的，去年年底接任CEO 221 00:06:56,220 --> 00:06:57,399 那么你认为 222 00:06:57,399 --> 00:06:58,579 他的优势是什么 223 00:06:58,579 --> 00:06:59,620 然后呢 224 00:06:59,620 --> 00:07:02,470 你觉得他可能会有什么不同做法 225 00:07:02,629 --> 00:07:04,470 他和巴菲特很不一样 226 00:07:04,470 --> 00:07:05,990 他是运营专家 227 00:07:05,990 --> 00:07:08,689 而伯克希尔当前的发展阶段 228 00:07:08,689 --> 00:07:10,399 需要一位运营专家 229 00:07:11,139 --> 00:07:15,759 巴菲特从不关心业务运营 230 00:07:15,759 --> 00:07:18,100 他不感兴趣深入细节 231 00:07:18,100 --> 00:07:21,819 深入业务运作的细节，他 232 00:07:21,819 --> 00:07:24,540 满足于定期收到汇报 233 00:07:24,540 --> 00:07:27,970 来自管理层和基层的反馈 234 00:07:27,970 --> 00:07:30,110 不同的管理风格 235 00:07:30,110 --> 00:07:31,129 一开始就说 236 00:07:31,129 --> 00:07:33,529 正如我之前所说，这正是伯克希尔需要的 237 00:07:33,529 --> 00:07:34,389 现在他们 238 00:07:34,389 --> 00:07:36,910 组织内部确实存在 239 00:07:36,910 --> 00:07:41,790 需要更多专注于运营的人 240 00:07:41,790 --> 00:07:43,910 帮助改进事务 241 00:07:43,910 --> 00:07:44,350 你知道的 242 00:07:44,350 --> 00:07:46,329 格雷格在我们看来 243 00:07:46,329 --> 00:07:48,110 更具领导气质 244 00:07:48,110 --> 00:07:49,250 更有冲劲 245 00:07:49,250 --> 00:07:50,100 嗯 246 00:07:50,100 --> 00:07:50,720 你知道的 247 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,550 巴菲特更少对抗性 248 00:07:54,550 --> 00:07:56,170 更倾向于 249 00:07:56,170 --> 00:07:56,449 保持低调 250 00:07:56,449 --> 00:07:57,009 你知道吗 251 00:07:57,009 --> 00:07:58,430 你知道在背景中 252 00:07:58,430 --> 00:07:59,149 所以就是这样 253 00:07:59,149 --> 00:08:00,230 它将会改变 254 00:08:00,230 --> 00:08:01,189 而且正如我之前所说 255 00:08:01,189 --> 00:08:02,790 我认为伯克希尔需要这样做 256 00:08:02,790 --> 00:08:06,610 因为我们从这段历史 257 00:08:06,610 --> 00:08:08,170 你知道有六十多年了 258 00:08:08,170 --> 00:08:09,918 巴菲特主导一切 259 00:08:09,918 --> 00:08:13,059 你知道打造了这个庞大的企业 260 00:08:13,059 --> 00:08:14,819 有一套特定的做事方式 261 00:08:14,819 --> 00:08:17,610 这种方式大部分时候长期有效 262 00:08:17,610 --> 00:08:18,009 你知道 263 00:08:18,009 --> 00:08:19,110 但现在已到了 264 00:08:19,110 --> 00:08:22,370 账面上积累了大量过剩资金 265 00:08:22,370 --> 00:08:22,930 是的 266 00:08:22,930 --> 00:08:27,680 嗯，他们运营的环境已发生变化 267 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,600 或者他们想要的运营方式 268 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:30,240 你知道这是 269 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:30,579 你知道 270 00:08:30,579 --> 00:08:31,660 继续收购公司 271 00:08:31,660 --> 00:08:32,470 实际上 272 00:08:32,470 --> 00:08:34,570 你知道在股票上进行大规模投资 273 00:08:34,570 --> 00:08:36,190 他们现在做起来比 274 00:08:36,190 --> 00:08:36,669 比如 275 00:08:36,669 --> 00:08:37,429 二十年三十年前 276 00:08:37,429 --> 00:08:39,869 当然我们来聊聊他们 277 00:08:39,869 --> 00:08:40,389 你知道 278 00:08:40,389 --> 00:08:41,408 较大的投资之一 279 00:08:41,408 --> 00:08:43,779 那就是卡夫亨氏今年早些时候 280 00:08:43,779 --> 00:08:45,919 伯克希尔提交了文件 281 00:08:45,919 --> 00:08:48,059 似乎表明你知道 282 00:08:48,059 --> 00:08:53,629 海雅市场我们可能会出售在卡夫亨氏的大量股份 283 00:08:53,629 --> 00:08:54,409 没有承诺 284 00:08:54,409 --> 00:08:56,149 但通过提交文件 285 00:08:56,149 --> 00:08:58,600 这显然是一个重大信号 286 00:08:58,600 --> 00:08:59,279 嗯 287 00:08:59,279 --> 00:09:02,519 所以在讨论可能的发展之前 288 00:09:02,519 --> 00:09:05,509 先简要回顾一下 289 00:09:05,509 --> 00:09:07,129 卡夫亨氏的持股规模 290 00:09:07,129 --> 00:09:10,049 以及伯克希尔最初如何参与卡夫亨氏 291 00:09:10,049 --> 00:09:10,350 是的 292 00:09:10,350 --> 00:09:11,570 目前仍持有约两 293 00:09:11,570 --> 00:09:13,089 百分之八的股权 294 00:09:13,089 --> 00:09:14,769 这就是他们的持股比例 295 00:09:14,769 --> 00:09:15,048 是的 296 00:09:15,048 --> 00:09:18,279 伯克希尔通过 297 00:09:18,279 --> 00:09:19,000 你知道 298 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:20,259 最初是在2013年 299 00:09:20,259 --> 00:09:23,360 他们与三巨头资本合作并收购了 300 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:24,779 嗯，海尼茨 301 00:09:24,779 --> 00:09:28,039 海尼茨食品，你知道的，当时是独立运营的 302 00:09:28,039 --> 00:09:29,070 嗯 303 00:09:29,070 --> 00:09:33,350 他们的初始股权包括 304 00:09:33,350 --> 00:09:34,009 你知道的 305 00:09:34,009 --> 00:09:35,470 优先股 306 00:09:35,470 --> 00:09:37,450 加上为股权提供的现金 307 00:09:37,450 --> 00:09:38,490 嗯 308 00:09:38,490 --> 00:09:40,009 在2015年 309 00:09:40,009 --> 00:09:43,629 3G策划了与卡夫食品的合并 310 00:09:43,629 --> 00:09:45,330 你知道的，这让我们获得了卡夫 311 00:09:45,330 --> 00:09:46,029 海尼茨业务 312 00:09:46,029 --> 00:09:49,090 当时一切似乎都很顺利 313 00:09:49,090 --> 00:09:53,250 伯克希尔不得不在几年内放弃优先股 314 00:09:53,250 --> 00:09:53,809 嗯 315 00:09:53,809 --> 00:09:56,649 那优先股有9%的年收益率，你知道的 316 00:09:56,649 --> 00:09:58,110 放弃确实令人失望 317 00:09:58,110 --> 00:10:01,429 自此一切都转为股票持有 318 00:10:01,429 --> 00:10:02,309 你知道的 319 00:10:02,309 --> 00:10:03,389 不幸的是 320 00:10:03,389 --> 00:10:04,250 你知道的 321 00:10:04,250 --> 00:10:07,009 3G经营企业的模式 322 00:10:07,009 --> 00:10:08,309 有时 323 00:10:08,469 --> 00:10:10,668 可能会削减资源 324 00:10:10,668 --> 00:10:11,269 你知道的 325 00:10:11,269 --> 00:10:14,229 他们成功提升了利润率 326 00:10:14,229 --> 00:10:19,289 但过度削减导致后续问题 327 00:10:19,289 --> 00:10:19,730 而且 328 00:10:19,730 --> 00:10:20,169 你知道的 329 00:10:20,169 --> 00:10:22,389 食品行业仍在持续变化 330 00:10:22,389 --> 00:10:22,850 你知道的 331 00:10:22,850 --> 00:10:26,379 企业动态未能跟上 332 00:10:26,379 --> 00:10:27,419 行业变化 333 00:10:27,419 --> 00:10:28,740 你知道的 334 00:10:30,259 --> 00:10:31,960 你知道的 335 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:32,460 你知道的 336 00:10:32,460 --> 00:10:33,440 尽管去年 337 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,679 你知道，他和阿贝尔曾强烈反对 338 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:37,440 你知道卡夫提出的部分变革 339 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:38,720 这不是第一次 340 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:39,100 是的 341 00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:39,600 我意思是，他 342 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:40,019 他 343 00:10:40,019 --> 00:10:42,259 多年来他们多次计提公司减值 344 00:10:42,259 --> 00:10:42,828 是的 345 00:10:42,828 --> 00:10:43,469 你知道的 346 00:10:43,469 --> 00:10:46,519 目前他们的成本基数约85亿美元 347 00:10:46,519 --> 00:10:47,919 所以回到你的观点 348 00:10:47,919 --> 00:10:48,240 你知道的 349 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:48,980 呃 350 00:10:48,980 --> 00:10:51,440 巴菲特和阿贝尔都在媒体上露面 351 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:52,820 你知道去年曾说过 352 00:10:52,820 --> 00:10:55,059 他们对那次投资感到不满 353 00:10:55,059 --> 00:10:56,460 以及最终的结果 354 00:10:56,460 --> 00:11:00,970 随后卡夫亨氏宣布将拆分 355 00:11:00,970 --> 00:11:03,009 我记得巴菲特出来表示 356 00:11:03,009 --> 00:11:03,210 是的 357 00:11:03,210 --> 00:11:03,330 嗯 358 00:11:03,330 --> 00:11:04,350 这并不能解决问题 359 00:11:04,350 --> 00:11:05,850 他更委婉地表达过 360 00:11:05,850 --> 00:11:07,590 但这真的无法解决问题 361 00:11:07,590 --> 00:11:09,460 所以然后啊 362 00:11:09,460 --> 00:11:11,779 卡夫亨氏最近又撤回了决定 363 00:11:11,779 --> 00:11:12,019 哦 364 00:11:12,019 --> 00:11:13,740 我们最终不会拆分 365 00:11:13,740 --> 00:11:15,740 鉴于所有这些情况 366 00:11:15,740 --> 00:11:16,480 考虑到 367 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:17,080 你知道的 368 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:20,980 格雷格·阿贝尔在上周股东信中提到 369 00:11:20,980 --> 00:11:21,779 你知道的 370 00:11:21,779 --> 00:11:23,320 你觉得他们会出售吗 371 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:24,460 我有十个 372 00:11:24,460 --> 00:11:25,120 好的 373 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:25,600 好的 374 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:26,700 我认为问题在于 375 00:11:26,700 --> 00:11:28,840 这是一个缓慢的分拆过程 376 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,779 回溯到五六年以前 377 00:11:31,779 --> 00:11:32,659 巴菲特当时在说 378 00:11:32,659 --> 00:11:33,159 嘿 379 00:11:33,159 --> 00:11:35,340 如果3G集团决定出售 380 00:11:35,340 --> 00:11:36,450 我们会接手 381 00:11:36,450 --> 00:11:37,169 你知道的 382 00:11:37,169 --> 00:11:38,230 然后3G集团开始出售 383 00:11:38,230 --> 00:11:41,809 但他们并没有购买对吧对吧 384 00:11:41,809 --> 00:11:41,970 然后到了这样的观点 385 00:11:41,970 --> 00:11:42,769 几年前 386 00:11:42,769 --> 00:11:43,210 他曾说过 387 00:11:43,210 --> 00:11:43,809 你知道的 388 00:11:43,809 --> 00:11:45,068 这是一次错误 389 00:11:45,068 --> 00:11:46,788 你知道结果并未如 390 00:11:46,788 --> 00:11:47,349 我们所想 391 00:11:47,349 --> 00:11:49,350 然后去年的那次 392 00:11:49,350 --> 00:11:50,950 去年在宣布前 393 00:11:50,950 --> 00:11:51,750 他们要拆分公司 394 00:11:51,750 --> 00:11:52,309 伯克希尔 395 00:11:52,309 --> 00:11:53,549 你退出了董事会 396 00:11:53,549 --> 00:11:53,990 是的 397 00:11:53,990 --> 00:11:55,009 这持续了 398 00:11:55,009 --> 00:11:55,690 是的 399 00:11:55,690 --> 00:12:01,919 对卡夫亨氏的信心多年来逐渐减弱 400 00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:02,840 所以这就是原因 401 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:03,120 我觉得 402 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:03,559 即使现在 403 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:04,129 我的意思是 404 00:12:04,129 --> 00:12:05,049 他们已经提交了文件 405 00:12:05,049 --> 00:12:05,809 年初早些时候的事情 406 00:12:05,809 --> 00:12:08,009 新C公司的首席执行官在二月初宣布 407 00:12:08,009 --> 00:12:08,570 并说嘿 408 00:12:08,570 --> 00:12:10,100 我们暂停这个计划 409 00:12:10,100 --> 00:12:13,620 我我觉得他们可能早就知道会暂停 410 00:12:13,620 --> 00:12:15,259 我不认为这改变了他们的想法 411 00:12:15,259 --> 00:12:18,940 我现在看来，如果审视投资组合 412 00:12:18,940 --> 00:12:19,259 确实 413 00:12:19,259 --> 00:12:21,120 大概会是其中之一 414 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:23,559 最可能被抛售的股票 415 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:23,919 你知道的 416 00:12:23,919 --> 00:12:25,370 近期可能会被减持或卖出 417 00:12:25,370 --> 00:12:25,789 好的 418 00:12:25,789 --> 00:12:25,970 嗯 419 00:12:25,970 --> 00:12:26,929 那就太好了 420 00:12:26,929 --> 00:12:28,230 过渡到下一个问题 421 00:12:28,230 --> 00:12:28,649 格雷格 422 00:12:28,649 --> 00:12:29,429 谢谢 423 00:12:29,429 --> 00:12:31,909 你写了一份优秀的股票分析报告 424 00:12:31,909 --> 00:12:35,590 在伯克希尔提交关于Kraft的文件后 425 00:12:35,590 --> 00:12:37,190 你有一句精彩的话 426 00:12:37,190 --> 00:12:39,710 内容大致是Kraft 427 00:12:39,710 --> 00:12:43,269 不会是公共投资组合唯一的变化 428 00:12:43,269 --> 00:12:45,870 你预期会有更多精简动作 429 00:12:45,870 --> 00:12:48,610 为什么这么认为 我认为有两个原因 430 00:12:48,610 --> 00:12:51,240 首先从投资组合本身来看 431 00:12:52,109 --> 00:12:52,589 你知道的 432 00:12:52,589 --> 00:12:55,389 我们已经看到伯克希尔愿意减持 433 00:12:55,389 --> 00:12:58,249 过去几年在苹果和美国银行的持仓 434 00:12:58,249 --> 00:13:01,279 事实上他们已大幅减少苹果 435 00:13:01,279 --> 00:13:04,519 苹果持仓减少四分之三，美国银行减少60% 436 00:13:04,519 --> 00:13:05,580 过去几年内 437 00:13:05,580 --> 00:13:07,509 显示出这种意愿 438 00:13:07,509 --> 00:13:10,870 嗯 439 00:13:10,870 --> 00:13:11,809 是的 440 00:13:11,809 --> 00:13:12,169 对 441 00:13:12,169 --> 00:13:15,250 我认为总规模是3130亿美元 442 00:13:15,250 --> 00:13:18,960 如果包含去年末的股权持仓 443 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:19,659 嗯 444 00:13:19,659 --> 00:13:24,339 确实有理由认为 445 00:13:24,339 --> 00:13:26,778 如果阿贝尔希望更集中的投资组合 446 00:13:26,778 --> 00:13:30,058 更易于管理 447 00:13:30,058 --> 00:13:30,558 你知道的 448 00:13:30,558 --> 00:13:35,169 适当减持部分持仓是合理的 449 00:13:35,169 --> 00:13:35,710 你知道的 450 00:13:35,710 --> 00:13:36,789 所以从这个角度来看 451 00:13:36,789 --> 00:13:37,519 那就是一个 452 00:13:37,519 --> 00:13:38,799 我想另一个是托德 453 00:13:38,799 --> 00:13:39,679 康姆斯已经离开了 454 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:40,100 是的 455 00:13:40,100 --> 00:13:42,000 你知道他去年年底离开的 456 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,399 他们可能会继续出售他持有的资产 457 00:13:45,399 --> 00:13:50,080 如果你想想他可能负责的资产 458 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:50,779 我是说 459 00:13:50,779 --> 00:13:53,039 visa和万事达卡应该立刻浮现 460 00:13:53,039 --> 00:13:55,059 因为这些是在2011年收购的 461 00:13:55,059 --> 00:13:56,360 这些都是他持有的资产 462 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:57,539 在他任职城堡点期间 463 00:13:57,539 --> 00:13:59,078 在他加入伯克希尔之前 464 00:13:59,078 --> 00:13:59,739 嗯 465 00:13:59,739 --> 00:14:01,879 他一直专注于金融服务 466 00:14:01,879 --> 00:14:03,239 金融科技啊 467 00:14:03,239 --> 00:14:03,639 你知道的 468 00:14:03,639 --> 00:14:05,000 这类价值股 469 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:06,440 我记不清具体是哪个 470 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,849 另一个可能属于这个范畴的 471 00:14:09,849 --> 00:14:10,808 但总体而言 472 00:14:10,808 --> 00:14:13,828 投资组合中还有其他资产 473 00:14:13,828 --> 00:14:15,089 随着年份推进可能会减少 474 00:14:15,089 --> 00:14:16,289 因为我们看到了这一点 475 00:14:16,289 --> 00:14:17,090 哦 476 00:14:17,090 --> 00:14:18,169 是不是二十年前 477 00:14:18,169 --> 00:14:19,370 当路易斯·西蒙斯离开时 478 00:14:19,370 --> 00:14:22,389 因为他管理着吉列保险组合 479 00:14:22,389 --> 00:14:22,789 好的 480 00:14:22,789 --> 00:14:24,049 你知道的 481 00:14:24,049 --> 00:14:24,919 基本上 482 00:14:24,919 --> 00:14:25,399 你知道的 483 00:14:25,399 --> 00:14:26,019 归于 484 00:14:26,019 --> 00:14:26,399 你知道的 485 00:14:26,399 --> 00:14:27,200 巴菲特的名下 486 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:28,519 他逐渐 487 00:14:28,519 --> 00:14:29,000 你知道的 488 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:30,539 逐步减持了这些资产 489 00:14:30,539 --> 00:14:30,779 现在 490 00:14:30,779 --> 00:14:31,759 你提到的 491 00:14:31,759 --> 00:14:32,799 美国银行和苹果 492 00:14:32,799 --> 00:14:34,799 伯克希尔发布了第四季度财报 493 00:14:34,799 --> 00:14:37,578 2023年第四季度财报几周前公布 494 00:14:37,578 --> 00:14:38,178 嗯 495 00:14:38,178 --> 00:14:38,658 而这份 496 00:14:38,658 --> 00:14:39,019 当然 497 00:14:39,019 --> 00:14:40,318 覆盖了最后一个季度 498 00:14:40,318 --> 00:14:42,078 巴菲特仍是CEO期间 499 00:14:42,078 --> 00:14:44,698 他们继续减少在苹果的持仓 500 00:14:44,698 --> 00:14:48,759 尽管它仍然是最大的持仓，但美国银行仍在逐步缩减 501 00:14:48,759 --> 00:14:49,340 嗯 502 00:14:49,340 --> 00:14:53,990 你认为这两只股票会随着时间在组合中长期保留吗 503 00:14:53,990 --> 00:14:58,330 可能只是以更小的仓位持有，而不是前二的位置 504 00:14:58,330 --> 00:14:59,980 这取决于你的时间框架 505 00:15:00,620 --> 00:15:01,360 是的 506 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,740 嗯，我觉得他们不会急于抛售 507 00:15:04,740 --> 00:15:09,649 我认为人们还需要关注的是 508 00:15:09,649 --> 00:15:11,169 他们为什么要抛售 509 00:15:11,169 --> 00:15:12,870 你知道在在在在 510 00:15:12,870 --> 00:15:14,789 在我看来 511 00:15:15,190 --> 00:15:15,710 嗯 512 00:15:15,710 --> 00:15:16,850 估计是在建现金储备 513 00:15:16,850 --> 00:15:18,860 这将成为一大笔储备 514 00:15:18,860 --> 00:15:20,200 供格雷格使用 515 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:20,720 你知道的 516 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:22,639 有点像应急时砸碎玻璃 517 00:15:22,639 --> 00:15:23,639 大基金没错 518 00:15:23,639 --> 00:15:23,840 你知道的 519 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:24,340 我是说 520 00:15:24,340 --> 00:15:25,259 我始终是这么想的 521 00:15:25,259 --> 00:15:26,840 我一直认为现金储备的积累 522 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,379 以及资产负债表的调整能提供更大灵活性 523 00:15:30,379 --> 00:15:33,659 但我也认为这里存在税务考量 524 00:15:33,659 --> 00:15:35,700 你知道几年前我就指出过 525 00:15:35,700 --> 00:15:36,879 当他们刚开始抛售苹果时 526 00:15:36,879 --> 00:15:44,279 因为伯克希尔需要缴纳15%的公司替代性最低税 527 00:15:44,679 --> 00:15:46,919 如果实际税率 528 00:15:46,919 --> 00:15:48,220 超过15% 529 00:15:48,220 --> 00:15:50,720 在三年连续期间内 530 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,809 他们将被征税未实现收益 531 00:15:53,809 --> 00:15:56,250 这很有趣，他们实际上是在 532 00:15:56,250 --> 00:16:00,210 实现收益以跨越这个门槛 533 00:16:00,210 --> 00:16:00,629 哇 534 00:16:00,629 --> 00:16:04,210 在那个时间框架内，这就是原因 535 00:16:04,210 --> 00:16:08,110 在我看来，这正是我们看到他们抛售苹果和美国银行的主要原因 536 00:16:08,110 --> 00:16:11,730 也因为他们在这些股票上仍有巨额未实现收益 537 00:16:11,730 --> 00:16:13,129 即使进行了大量抛售之后 538 00:16:13,129 --> 00:16:15,389 我们仍在谈论数十亿级别 539 00:16:15,389 --> 00:16:17,610 我认为苹果这边接近五十亿 540 00:16:17,610 --> 00:16:21,129 而美国银行可能是一二十亿左右 541 00:16:21,129 --> 00:16:23,078 他们持有未实现收益 542 00:16:23,078 --> 00:16:25,259 从这个角度看 543 00:16:25,259 --> 00:16:29,078 他们从这个角度处理问题是有道理的 544 00:16:29,078 --> 00:16:32,649 这些标的正好符合他们的需求 545 00:16:32,649 --> 00:16:33,429 你知道的 546 00:16:33,429 --> 00:16:33,710 是的 547 00:16:33,710 --> 00:16:33,909 我是说 548 00:16:33,909 --> 00:16:35,549 他们很难说 549 00:16:35,549 --> 00:16:39,078 去追高或抛售可口可乐、美国运通或穆迪 550 00:16:39,078 --> 00:16:41,399 因为这些资产的成本基础非常低 551 00:16:41,399 --> 00:16:42,580 没错没错 552 00:16:42,580 --> 00:16:45,419 现在整体情况如何呢 553 00:16:45,419 --> 00:16:47,620 从资产配置角度来看 554 00:16:47,620 --> 00:16:48,580 换句话说在 555 00:16:48,580 --> 00:16:49,240 你知道的 556 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,678 公共投资组合 557 00:16:51,678 --> 00:16:52,259 现金 558 00:16:52,259 --> 00:16:53,979 然后是私营公司 559 00:16:53,979 --> 00:16:56,298 我进来之前已经在脑子里记了数字 560 00:16:56,298 --> 00:16:57,730 我认为现金 561 00:16:59,940 --> 00:17:01,159 现在的国库券 562 00:17:01,159 --> 00:17:05,299 所以现金等价物约三百七十亿美元 563 00:17:05,299 --> 00:17:05,839 好的 564 00:17:05,839 --> 00:17:09,200 投资组合我们之前说的约三百二十亿美元 565 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:09,539 好的 566 00:17:09,539 --> 00:17:11,559 而在这一领域权益类资产 567 00:17:11,559 --> 00:17:12,240 好的 568 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,099 而债券则微不足道 569 00:17:14,099 --> 00:17:15,740 只有约十八亿美元 570 00:17:15,740 --> 00:17:16,239 对的 571 00:17:16,239 --> 00:17:20,630 你有一个现金投资组合 572 00:17:20,630 --> 00:17:23,670 规模超过你的投资组合 573 00:17:23,670 --> 00:17:25,779 涉及股票和权益类资产 574 00:17:25,779 --> 00:17:28,200 嗯，总的来说 575 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,559 我认为是七百零五亿美元 576 00:17:30,559 --> 00:17:30,980 好的 577 00:17:30,980 --> 00:17:33,220 我脑海中记得的数字是 578 00:17:33,220 --> 00:17:34,430 嗯 579 00:17:34,789 --> 00:17:38,670 这些都是他们可动用的流动资产 580 00:17:38,670 --> 00:17:40,960 在私营领域 581 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:42,000 这是一个 582 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:43,640 你知道我们还没更新数据 583 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,180 你知道在四季度末 584 00:17:45,180 --> 00:17:47,299 但在那之前 585 00:17:47,299 --> 00:17:50,859 你知道大约是四百五十五亿美元 586 00:17:50,859 --> 00:17:51,700 好的 587 00:17:51,700 --> 00:17:52,259 好的 588 00:17:52,259 --> 00:17:53,759 将这两者相加 589 00:17:53,759 --> 00:17:54,960 总计一点 590 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:55,380 什么 591 00:17:55,380 --> 00:17:55,720 好的 592 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:56,279 五亿对吧 593 00:17:56,279 --> 00:17:56,619 在里面 594 00:17:56,619 --> 00:17:57,039 是的 595 00:17:57,039 --> 00:17:57,539 是的 596 00:17:57,539 --> 00:17:59,519 所以很明显 597 00:17:59,519 --> 00:18:00,579 或者说十亿 598 00:18:00,579 --> 00:18:01,359 我说的是百万 599 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:01,759 对的 600 00:18:01,759 --> 00:18:02,200 不 601 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:02,779 我说过 602 00:18:02,779 --> 00:18:03,269 是的 603 00:18:03,269 --> 00:18:03,869 对啊 604 00:18:03,869 --> 00:18:04,619 好的 605 00:18:04,619 --> 00:18:08,339 那我们就稍微聊聊私营公司股权的情况 606 00:18:08,339 --> 00:18:09,039 你知道的 607 00:18:09,039 --> 00:18:10,859 你知道我们很少讨论这个 608 00:18:10,859 --> 00:18:11,259 你知道的 609 00:18:11,259 --> 00:18:17,079 在格雷格·阿贝尔掌权后，你预计会有变化吗 610 00:18:17,079 --> 00:18:19,200 我想这些变革会更难实施 611 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:20,109 总的来说 612 00:18:20,109 --> 00:18:21,910 因为他们拥有公司全部股权 613 00:18:21,910 --> 00:18:24,569 但我是说我们预计会看到变化 614 00:18:24,569 --> 00:18:26,240 我是说没错 615 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:28,299 尽管他没在信中明确提到 616 00:18:28,299 --> 00:18:29,359 嗯 是的 617 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:30,730 伯克希尔必须采纳 618 00:18:30,730 --> 00:18:32,349 你知道精准运营正在推进 619 00:18:32,349 --> 00:18:33,049 你知道的 620 00:18:33,049 --> 00:18:37,329 他表示对两者盈利能力差距感到失望 621 00:18:37,329 --> 00:18:38,819 这指的是联合太平洋 622 00:18:38,819 --> 00:18:40,259 而我们一直在说 623 00:18:40,259 --> 00:18:41,900 你知道已经五年多了 624 00:18:41,900 --> 00:18:42,259 对吧 625 00:18:42,259 --> 00:18:42,920 嗯 626 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,920 所以这将成为下一步重点 627 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:50,329 嗯 但肯定还有其他领域 628 00:18:50,329 --> 00:18:53,470 我多年来一直认为 629 00:18:53,470 --> 00:18:54,109 你知道的 630 00:18:54,109 --> 00:18:58,680 伯克希尔的管理层可能长期损害自身 631 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:02,789 过于侧重将资本上缴伯克希尔总部 632 00:19:02,789 --> 00:19:05,710 而非深入考虑长期 633 00:19:05,710 --> 00:19:06,670 你知道的需求 634 00:19:06,670 --> 00:19:08,269 比如我们看到的吉列公司 635 00:19:08,269 --> 00:19:09,029 其中你知道的 636 00:19:09,029 --> 00:19:12,859 公司在技术栈上投资不足 637 00:19:12,859 --> 00:19:18,459 你知道他们提升和升级技术系统的能力 638 00:19:18,459 --> 00:19:20,490 以支持车联网运行 639 00:19:20,490 --> 00:19:21,069 对吧 640 00:19:21,069 --> 00:19:21,410 是的 641 00:19:21,410 --> 00:19:23,309 没错 并且持续了很长时间 642 00:19:23,309 --> 00:19:26,920 于是奥格·詹恩介入并说我们需要解决这个问题 643 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:28,940 即便如此仍需三到四年 644 00:19:28,940 --> 00:19:30,719 然后我们才逐步解决 645 00:19:30,719 --> 00:19:32,038 从这个角度看 646 00:19:32,038 --> 00:19:33,759 这些都是需要处理的事 647 00:19:33,759 --> 00:19:35,578 我认为他应该已经识别到 648 00:19:35,578 --> 00:19:36,118 你知道的 649 00:19:36,118 --> 00:19:40,319 因为他早在2018年初就开始监管非保险业务 650 00:19:40,319 --> 00:19:40,880 嗯 651 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:41,900 你知道的 652 00:19:41,900 --> 00:19:42,859 和经理们谈谈 653 00:19:42,859 --> 00:19:44,359 你知道他们当时的位置在哪里 654 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:45,470 他们的关注点是什么 655 00:19:45,470 --> 00:19:47,710 但我觉得他一直有点犹豫 656 00:19:47,710 --> 00:19:48,690 不敢更积极地推进 657 00:19:48,690 --> 00:19:50,849 因为他实际上没有完全的决策权 658 00:19:50,849 --> 00:19:52,549 因为巴菲特仍然掌权 659 00:19:52,549 --> 00:19:54,470 嗯但现在他掌权了 660 00:19:54,470 --> 00:19:56,269 我预料会看到一些变化 661 00:19:56,269 --> 00:19:58,109 你知道他会更严格一些 662 00:19:58,109 --> 00:19:59,630 好的现在 663 00:19:59,630 --> 00:20:04,460 去年十二月你提到过托德·康布斯 664 00:20:04,460 --> 00:20:05,079 嗯 665 00:20:05,079 --> 00:20:07,220 当时他正在管理GEICO 666 00:20:07,220 --> 00:20:09,420 要离开伯克希尔去 667 00:20:09,420 --> 00:20:10,779 摩根大通工作 668 00:20:10,779 --> 00:20:12,240 你对此怎么看 669 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:12,859 或许会看到 670 00:20:12,859 --> 00:20:15,339 我知道他们的CFO 671 00:20:15,339 --> 00:20:15,960 是的 672 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:17,720 他也离职了你知道的 673 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:18,750 同时退休了 674 00:20:18,750 --> 00:20:19,670 所以啊 675 00:20:19,670 --> 00:20:22,509 谈谈伯克希尔的高管变动 676 00:20:22,509 --> 00:20:22,869 当然除了 677 00:20:22,869 --> 00:20:24,339 沃伦·巴菲特 678 00:20:24,339 --> 00:20:25,740 比如马克·哈姆堡 679 00:20:25,740 --> 00:20:26,500 这并不意外 680 00:20:26,500 --> 00:20:27,819 他在那里待了很久 681 00:20:27,819 --> 00:20:29,160 而且他曾是CFO没错 682 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:29,480 对啊 683 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:29,740 好的 684 00:20:29,740 --> 00:20:32,230 所以他的离职并不意外 685 00:20:32,230 --> 00:20:32,859 我是说 686 00:20:32,859 --> 00:20:35,180 嗯而且你知道他能引进 687 00:20:35,180 --> 00:20:36,480 认识的人来担任 688 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:36,740 你知道的 689 00:20:36,740 --> 00:20:38,579 负责财务的人选 690 00:20:38,579 --> 00:20:40,660 在伯克希尔他一直精力充沛 691 00:20:40,660 --> 00:20:44,759 从这个角度看托德的离职并不意外 692 00:20:44,759 --> 00:20:46,769 托德的离开有点意外 693 00:20:46,769 --> 00:20:47,410 嗯 694 00:20:47,410 --> 00:20:49,849 我认为他在GEICO做得非常出色 695 00:20:49,849 --> 00:20:51,650 投资者没给他足够认可 696 00:20:51,650 --> 00:20:57,059 你知道他处理的任务有多么艰巨 697 00:20:57,059 --> 00:20:58,279 如果你不记得的话 698 00:20:58,279 --> 00:21:00,809 他是在2019年12月接任的 699 00:21:00,809 --> 00:21:01,710 当时的情况 700 00:21:01,710 --> 00:21:06,369 Geico 长期面临数年的承保业绩不佳问题 701 00:21:06,369 --> 00:21:09,019 基于他们此前做出的错误决策 702 00:21:09,019 --> 00:21:09,920 你知道他们 703 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:11,160 他们变得过于激进 704 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:11,460 你知道的 705 00:21:11,460 --> 00:21:13,380 为了争夺市场份额而行动 706 00:21:13,380 --> 00:21:15,809 承接了许多不该接手的业务 707 00:21:15,809 --> 00:21:16,930 你也清楚这一点 708 00:21:16,930 --> 00:21:20,609 这基本让他们在多年亏损中难以翻身 709 00:21:20,609 --> 00:21:22,710 而当他上任时 710 00:21:22,710 --> 00:21:24,390 他计划重点解决这个问题 711 00:21:24,390 --> 00:21:25,450 没想到的是 712 00:21:25,450 --> 00:21:25,789 新冠疫情来袭 713 00:21:25,789 --> 00:21:26,349 没错 714 00:21:26,349 --> 00:21:28,269 整个美国车险行业的情况 715 00:21:28,269 --> 00:21:30,150 持续多年处于低迷状态 716 00:21:30,150 --> 00:21:31,000 我的意思是 717 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:32,160 我们到现在才真正 718 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:36,059 逐渐恢复到正常水平 719 00:21:36,059 --> 00:21:36,720 是的 720 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:37,259 嗯 721 00:21:37,259 --> 00:21:38,579 但这需要时间 722 00:21:38,579 --> 00:21:39,160 我的意思是 723 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,220 车险价格已上涨55% 724 00:21:42,220 --> 00:21:42,619 没错 725 00:21:42,619 --> 00:21:43,140 在过去几年 726 00:21:43,140 --> 00:21:44,200 我记得2019年 727 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:44,740 对的 728 00:21:44,740 --> 00:21:46,559 从这个角度看 729 00:21:46,559 --> 00:21:47,099 我的意思是 730 00:21:47,099 --> 00:21:48,099 他们不得不这么做 731 00:21:48,099 --> 00:21:50,299 因为车辆更换成本 732 00:21:50,299 --> 00:21:51,849 零部件更换成本 733 00:21:51,849 --> 00:21:55,190 甚至事故发生的频率 734 00:21:55,190 --> 00:21:55,970 事故数量 735 00:21:55,970 --> 00:21:57,789 事故严重程度等 736 00:21:57,789 --> 00:22:00,069 这些在多年间大幅上升 737 00:22:00,069 --> 00:22:01,910 但部分情况已开始缓解 738 00:22:01,910 --> 00:22:03,190 但通胀压力依然存在 739 00:22:03,190 --> 00:22:04,930 我的意思是通胀并未消失 740 00:22:04,930 --> 00:22:08,140 所以我们需要观察后续发展 741 00:22:08,140 --> 00:22:11,220 我的意思是能有他掌舵会更好 742 00:22:11,220 --> 00:22:16,328 因为我们将面临多 年价格可能持续走低的环境 743 00:22:18,769 --> 00:22:19,220 是的 744 00:22:19,220 --> 00:22:20,460 现在开始关注 745 00:22:20,460 --> 00:22:21,819 行业的盈利能力 746 00:22:21,819 --> 00:22:22,380 他们正在 747 00:22:22,380 --> 00:22:25,420 要求车险价格下调 748 00:22:25,420 --> 00:22:28,140 从这个角度看很值得关注后续发展 749 00:22:28,140 --> 00:22:31,368 但我的意思是，他之前并没有像现在这样专注于 750 00:22:31,368 --> 00:22:34,028 这段时间的投资组合情况如何 751 00:22:34,028 --> 00:22:36,519 你知道的，他得到了一个 752 00:22:36,519 --> 00:22:39,319 你知道他在摩根大通董事会已经坐了好几年了 753 00:22:39,319 --> 00:22:40,799 他和Jamie Diamond关系非常密切 754 00:22:40,799 --> 00:22:43,390 所以他收到了一个无法拒绝的 offer 755 00:22:43,390 --> 00:22:43,670 是的 756 00:22:43,670 --> 00:22:45,230 这对他是很好的机会 757 00:22:45,230 --> 00:22:46,990 所以我能理解为什么 758 00:22:46,990 --> 00:22:48,150 但另一方面 759 00:22:48,150 --> 00:22:48,589 你知道的 760 00:22:48,589 --> 00:22:52,929 我觉得这可能只是失去了一位优秀的顾问 761 00:22:52,929 --> 00:22:55,990 能够有Ryan在那边协助他 762 00:22:55,990 --> 00:22:59,690 我们来聊聊这个似乎不断增长的现金储备 763 00:22:59,690 --> 00:23:01,589 每次我们拿到新的 764 00:23:01,589 --> 00:23:02,089 呃 765 00:23:02,089 --> 00:23:02,769 财报 766 00:23:02,769 --> 00:23:04,250 或查看13F文件 767 00:23:04,250 --> 00:23:05,430 嗯现在 768 00:23:05,430 --> 00:23:05,970 你知道的 769 00:23:05,970 --> 00:23:06,349 当然 770 00:23:06,349 --> 00:23:10,839 伯克希尔很久没收购过大型私有企业了 771 00:23:10,839 --> 00:23:11,819 嗯 772 00:23:11,819 --> 00:23:14,559 对此你怎么看，比如在 773 00:23:15,259 --> 00:23:19,400 在Greg Abel掌权下是否会更多私有交易 774 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:19,880 我的意思是 775 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:21,339 还是只是巴菲特 776 00:23:21,339 --> 00:23:21,759 你 777 00:23:21,759 --> 00:23:22,599 你觉得他会 778 00:23:22,599 --> 00:23:23,599 我这么说可能不太好 779 00:23:23,599 --> 00:23:24,960 但可能比巴菲特更不挑剔 780 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:26,559 巴菲特会怎么说呢，比如 781 00:23:26,559 --> 00:23:28,769 这里有什么催化剂吗 782 00:23:28,769 --> 00:23:29,250 是的 783 00:23:29,250 --> 00:23:29,809 这确实 784 00:23:29,809 --> 00:23:31,220 这确实 785 00:23:31,220 --> 00:23:34,059 伯克希尔过去十年到十五年表现艰难 786 00:23:34,059 --> 00:23:34,819 嗯 787 00:23:34,819 --> 00:23:39,680 主要是因为巴菲特一直非常严格 788 00:23:40,930 --> 00:23:44,430 在收购时的纪律和标准 789 00:23:44,430 --> 00:23:47,450 然后他的行事方式始终是 790 00:23:47,450 --> 00:23:49,509 你知道他直接给出报价 791 00:23:49,509 --> 00:23:50,390 就是这么简单 792 00:23:50,390 --> 00:23:51,950 他从不讨价还价 793 00:23:51,950 --> 00:23:52,410 他不 794 00:23:52,410 --> 00:23:52,829 你知道的 795 00:23:52,829 --> 00:23:53,990 重新修改或做其他事情 796 00:23:53,990 --> 00:23:55,750 这让他错失了一些交易 797 00:23:55,750 --> 00:23:56,170 是的 798 00:23:56,170 --> 00:23:58,219 问题是在这个时间段 799 00:23:58,219 --> 00:24:00,739 你知道从金融危机到现在 800 00:24:01,778 --> 00:24:03,740 嗯 私募股权 801 00:24:03,740 --> 00:24:07,140 私募资本筹集了巨额资金 802 00:24:07,140 --> 00:24:11,900 当你面对那些不介意的人时 803 00:24:11,900 --> 00:24:12,759 你知道 804 00:24:12,759 --> 00:24:13,200 呃 805 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:14,059 突破界限 806 00:24:14,059 --> 00:24:17,079 在价格和交易这些方面 807 00:24:17,079 --> 00:24:18,700 事情变得越来越难 808 00:24:18,700 --> 00:24:18,980 你知道 809 00:24:18,980 --> 00:24:20,288 现在什么都难办了 810 00:24:20,288 --> 00:24:22,088 他们多年来做了一些事情 811 00:24:22,088 --> 00:24:22,409 我说 812 00:24:22,409 --> 00:24:23,088 阿利根尼 813 00:24:23,088 --> 00:24:25,240 在我看来是个好交易 814 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:25,940 嗯 815 00:24:25,940 --> 00:24:26,440 你知道 816 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:30,359 去年的奥昔康交易看起来不错 817 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:31,250 嗯 818 00:24:31,250 --> 00:24:32,089 你知道 819 00:24:32,089 --> 00:24:34,309 精密铸造部件不太行 820 00:24:34,309 --> 00:24:34,950 所以 821 00:24:34,950 --> 00:24:35,450 我说 822 00:24:35,450 --> 00:24:37,710 从这个角度看我们得看后续发展 823 00:24:37,710 --> 00:24:38,450 但 824 00:24:38,450 --> 00:24:38,970 是的 825 00:24:38,970 --> 00:24:40,609 我对这封信有点失望 826 00:24:40,609 --> 00:24:44,049 他否决了一笔交易 827 00:24:44,049 --> 00:24:47,930 这会大幅减少账面现金 828 00:24:47,930 --> 00:24:48,369 是的 829 00:24:48,369 --> 00:24:49,769 我们来谈谈股东信 830 00:24:49,769 --> 00:24:51,210 这封信上周出来了 831 00:24:51,210 --> 00:24:51,890 我读过了 832 00:24:51,890 --> 00:24:53,779 当然你读了并写了评论 833 00:24:53,779 --> 00:24:54,019 嗯 834 00:24:54,019 --> 00:24:58,980 这封信和巴菲特的年报完全不同 835 00:24:58,980 --> 00:25:00,710 每年他都会讨论这些 836 00:25:00,710 --> 00:25:01,990 我只能说十八页 837 00:25:03,829 --> 00:25:05,690 内容太多需要慢慢消化 838 00:25:05,690 --> 00:25:06,410 嗯 839 00:25:06,410 --> 00:25:08,710 我觉得他做得不错 840 00:25:10,109 --> 00:25:15,319 从一开始就解释伯克希尔 841 00:25:15,319 --> 00:25:18,049 你知道什么让成功 842 00:25:18,049 --> 00:25:19,329 核心优先事项 843 00:25:19,329 --> 00:25:19,849 核心 844 00:25:19,849 --> 00:25:20,930 核心价值观 845 00:25:20,930 --> 00:25:22,039 企业文化 846 00:25:22,039 --> 00:25:25,119 你知道他们应该关注的事 847 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:26,920 你知道资本配置决策 848 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:28,519 你知道风险管理 849 00:25:28,519 --> 00:25:29,039 嗯 850 00:25:29,039 --> 00:25:29,920 运营卓越 851 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:35,559 你知道很多你知道的事情 852 00:25:35,559 --> 00:25:36,519 试图整理一下 853 00:25:36,519 --> 00:25:39,599 只是安抚投资者并说看我我理解这个业务 854 00:25:39,599 --> 00:25:41,179 我知道需要做什么 855 00:25:41,179 --> 00:25:41,459 是的 856 00:25:41,459 --> 00:25:42,999 我觉得他需要这样做 857 00:25:42,999 --> 00:25:43,838 嗯 858 00:25:43,838 --> 00:25:46,259 但有些领域我感到 859 00:25:46,259 --> 00:25:46,630 啊 860 00:25:46,630 --> 00:25:48,589 我希望你不要承诺 861 00:25:48,589 --> 00:25:50,970 无论如何其中一个会是 862 00:25:50,970 --> 00:25:51,349 你知道的 863 00:25:51,349 --> 00:25:52,029 基本上是在说 864 00:25:52,029 --> 00:25:53,410 我们无意收购 865 00:25:53,410 --> 00:25:55,029 另一个类别 866 00:25:55,029 --> 00:25:56,230 一家铁路公司 867 00:25:56,230 --> 00:25:57,789 你知道的 868 00:25:57,789 --> 00:25:59,289 我觉得这 869 00:25:59,289 --> 00:26:01,470 你知道把自己困在角落里 870 00:26:01,470 --> 00:26:04,319 因为在我们看来他们需要 871 00:26:04,319 --> 00:26:04,920 你知道的 872 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:06,180 如果任何太平洋和北部 873 00:26:06,180 --> 00:26:06,720 诺福克 874 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:07,519 南方联合起来 875 00:26:07,519 --> 00:26:09,829 拥有一条横贯大陆的铁路 876 00:26:09,829 --> 00:26:11,529 就能绕过芝加哥 877 00:26:11,529 --> 00:26:13,309 就能绕过休斯顿 878 00:26:13,309 --> 00:26:17,009 能为客户提供更好服务 879 00:26:17,009 --> 00:26:19,029 在西海岸港口运输货物并 880 00:26:19,029 --> 00:26:20,319 反之亦然 881 00:26:20,319 --> 00:26:24,339 而作为NSF将处于劣势 882 00:26:24,339 --> 00:26:27,599 而我认为他们 883 00:26:27,599 --> 00:26:28,960 应该更关注 884 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:29,539 CSX 885 00:26:29,539 --> 00:26:29,920 我是说 886 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:30,299 是的 887 00:26:30,299 --> 00:26:33,259 当然这可能需要花费九十亿美元 888 00:26:33,259 --> 00:26:34,380 来收购 889 00:26:34,380 --> 00:26:34,779 如果不 890 00:26:34,779 --> 00:26:37,259 你知道多一点嗯 891 00:26:37,259 --> 00:26:38,299 但 892 00:26:38,299 --> 00:26:43,990 这会减少资产负债表上的现金从而有所帮助 893 00:26:43,990 --> 00:26:48,069 同时确保他们不会大幅落后 894 00:26:48,069 --> 00:26:48,799 你知道的 895 00:26:48,799 --> 00:26:50,539 相对于联合太平洋 896 00:26:50,539 --> 00:26:53,140 所以我有点失望 897 00:26:53,140 --> 00:26:55,119 你知道一切的核心是分红理念 898 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:55,539 是的 899 00:26:55,539 --> 00:26:56,819 我想谈谈那个问题 900 00:26:56,819 --> 00:26:58,099 因为男孩不会分红 901 00:26:58,099 --> 00:26:59,630 帮助减少现金 902 00:26:59,630 --> 00:27:02,630 这是我们过去讨论过的事情 903 00:27:02,630 --> 00:27:05,160 这是你 904 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:06,619 你知道不只是你 905 00:27:06,619 --> 00:27:08,599 但很多人认为更可能 906 00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:11,349 巴菲特不再是ceo之后 907 00:27:11,349 --> 00:27:13,309 因为他一直反对派发股息 908 00:27:13,309 --> 00:27:16,170 格雷格·阿贝尔在股东信中提到 909 00:27:16,170 --> 00:27:16,990 基本上说 910 00:27:16,990 --> 00:27:18,210 别抱太大希望 911 00:27:18,210 --> 00:27:20,890 短期内不会有股息 912 00:27:20,890 --> 00:27:21,130 是的 913 00:27:21,130 --> 00:27:23,009 我觉得我的评论是 914 00:27:23,009 --> 00:27:23,769 你知道的 915 00:27:23,769 --> 00:27:25,890 他实际上否决了分红选项 916 00:27:25,890 --> 00:27:26,740 是的 917 00:27:26,740 --> 00:27:27,480 是的 918 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:28,500 但我是 919 00:27:28,500 --> 00:27:28,859 我不知道 920 00:27:28,859 --> 00:27:29,140 我是说 921 00:27:29,140 --> 00:27:33,119 我认为巴菲特不发股息的原因 922 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,519 多年来一直是看 923 00:27:35,519 --> 00:27:37,119 我们能用留存资本创造更高收益 924 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:38,549 让股东获得 925 00:27:38,549 --> 00:27:39,750 很长一段时间 926 00:27:39,750 --> 00:27:40,390 那是事实 927 00:27:40,390 --> 00:27:41,410 是的 928 00:27:41,410 --> 00:27:42,730 过去十五多年 929 00:27:42,730 --> 00:27:44,509 我不认为你知道 930 00:27:44,509 --> 00:27:50,150 而我认为这让他最终改变主意 931 00:27:50,150 --> 00:27:53,750 并真正启动分红的是 932 00:27:55,730 --> 00:27:56,170 是的 933 00:27:56,170 --> 00:27:58,470 他不想从工具箱中移除工具 934 00:27:58,470 --> 00:27:59,779 他们可能需要的 935 00:27:59,779 --> 00:28:01,140 如果需要的话 936 00:28:01,140 --> 00:28:01,960 你知道的 937 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,079 我们保持股东稳定 938 00:28:04,079 --> 00:28:08,279 总之你知道 939 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,480 启动分红意味着承诺 940 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:11,199 是的 941 00:28:11,199 --> 00:28:11,778 你知道的 942 00:28:11,778 --> 00:28:12,739 而你 943 00:28:12,739 --> 00:28:13,838 必须持续支付 944 00:28:13,838 --> 00:28:14,919 定期进行 945 00:28:14,919 --> 00:28:15,939 如果这样做的话 946 00:28:15,939 --> 00:28:16,278 是的 947 00:28:16,278 --> 00:28:17,578 你可以发放特别股息 948 00:28:17,578 --> 00:28:19,490 这确实是一个选项 949 00:28:19,490 --> 00:28:21,269 但这样一来股东们可能会疑惑 950 00:28:21,269 --> 00:28:22,029 下一次是什么时候 951 00:28:22,029 --> 00:28:22,910 如果你给我这个 952 00:28:22,910 --> 00:28:24,690 因为你曾说你有大量过剩资金 953 00:28:24,690 --> 00:28:27,190 而现在你的资本比之前更多 954 00:28:27,190 --> 00:28:27,789 你知道的 955 00:28:27,789 --> 00:28:28,430 只是这样 956 00:28:28,430 --> 00:28:30,410 这会引发很多其他问题 957 00:28:30,410 --> 00:28:32,269 所以你知道的 958 00:28:32,269 --> 00:28:35,450 可以说他会暂时持有不动 959 00:28:35,450 --> 00:28:39,910 但语气似乎比必要时更冷漠 960 00:28:39,910 --> 00:28:41,190 在措辞上 961 00:28:41,190 --> 00:28:42,259 还有我 962 00:28:42,259 --> 00:28:42,538 你知道的 963 00:28:42,538 --> 00:28:43,138 这就是我说的 964 00:28:43,138 --> 00:28:45,659 我是说 965 00:28:45,659 --> 00:28:50,670 他似乎更注重遵循公司立场 966 00:28:50,670 --> 00:28:53,730 就伯克希尔的历史做法而言 967 00:28:53,730 --> 00:28:55,250 然后可能开始剥离 968 00:28:55,250 --> 00:28:55,589 是的 969 00:28:55,589 --> 00:28:58,309 这是我未来可能关注的方向 970 00:28:58,309 --> 00:28:59,109 正如你所指出的 971 00:28:59,109 --> 00:29:01,490 这可能是他应该做的事 972 00:29:01,490 --> 00:29:02,430 现在很合适 973 00:29:02,430 --> 00:29:03,069 现阶段而言 974 00:29:03,069 --> 00:29:04,309 也更容易 975 00:29:04,309 --> 00:29:04,809 是的 976 00:29:04,809 --> 00:29:05,710 确实如此 977 00:29:05,710 --> 00:29:09,269 因为伯克希尔目前不缺资金 978 00:29:09,269 --> 00:29:11,279 基本上我不确定 979 00:29:11,279 --> 00:29:13,759 你知道大卫今年推荐时的情况 980 00:29:13,759 --> 00:29:15,119 但伯克希尔的避险资产 981 00:29:15,119 --> 00:29:15,569 是的 982 00:29:15,569 --> 00:29:18,049 你知道当市场进入 983 00:29:18,049 --> 00:29:18,930 下跌阶段 984 00:29:18,930 --> 00:29:19,269 我是说 985 00:29:19,269 --> 00:29:20,769 这本质上是 986 00:29:20,769 --> 00:29:22,930 人们喜欢持有的优质防御性股票 987 00:29:22,930 --> 00:29:25,150 持有三百七十三亿美元现金 988 00:29:25,150 --> 00:29:25,670 没错 989 00:29:25,670 --> 00:29:27,210 这确实很有帮助 990 00:29:27,210 --> 00:29:28,690 从这些角度看 991 00:29:28,690 --> 00:29:29,869 我不觉得他 992 00:29:29,869 --> 00:29:32,410 他没有做任何激进举动的必要 993 00:29:32,410 --> 00:29:36,329 但但但我会希望听到他的表态 994 00:29:36,329 --> 00:29:38,509 这可能表明 995 00:29:38,509 --> 00:29:39,829 你知道情况即将改变 996 00:29:39,829 --> 00:29:40,190 是的 997 00:29:40,190 --> 00:29:41,470 因为伯克希尔已经持续 998 00:29:41,470 --> 00:29:41,630 现在 999 00:29:41,630 --> 00:29:44,838 我们一直在说必须从一种权利转变为一种再投资机器 1000 00:29:44,838 --> 00:29:45,298 你知道的 1001 00:29:45,298 --> 00:29:46,459 再投资机器 1002 00:29:46,459 --> 00:29:50,558 它过去很长时间都是这样，现在要转变为股东现金回报机器 1003 00:29:50,558 --> 00:29:53,640 因为基本上它已经走到了尽头 1004 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:54,119 是的 1005 00:29:54,119 --> 00:29:54,819 是的 1006 00:29:54,819 --> 00:29:57,819 现在谈谈伯克希尔当前的估值 1007 00:29:57,819 --> 00:29:58,519 你知道你提到过 1008 00:29:58,519 --> 00:30:00,859 你知道大卫推荐了伯克希尔 1009 00:30:00,859 --> 00:30:03,099 是在一月份某个时候 1010 00:30:03,099 --> 00:30:06,609 所以当时我认为它略被低估 1011 00:30:06,609 --> 00:30:07,130 嗯 1012 00:30:07,130 --> 00:30:08,289 今天怎么看 1013 00:30:08,289 --> 00:30:09,890 它仍然略被低估 1014 00:30:09,890 --> 00:30:13,720 我认为基于当前价格，约低于公允价值6% 1015 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,700 我认为我们以765美元持有A类股 1016 00:30:16,700 --> 00:30:18,170 我认为是五十分之一的蜜蜂 1017 00:30:18,170 --> 00:30:18,829 好的 1018 00:30:18,829 --> 00:30:22,079 嗯，那里确实有点低估 1019 00:30:22,079 --> 00:30:23,259 你知道如果看 1020 00:30:23,259 --> 00:30:23,700 你知道的 1021 00:30:23,700 --> 00:30:28,440 市净率约1.5倍去年水平 1022 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,640 这大约处于 1023 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:31,920 你知道历史水平 1024 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:36,039 所以没什么特别值得大惊小怪的 1025 00:30:36,039 --> 00:30:36,420 好的 1026 00:30:36,420 --> 00:30:36,700 我是说 1027 00:30:36,700 --> 00:30:36,880 这 1028 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:37,289 这 1029 00:30:37,289 --> 00:30:38,490 存在小幅折价 1030 00:30:38,490 --> 00:30:39,569 但折价不大 1031 00:30:39,569 --> 00:30:41,210 但我觉得这也部分源于 1032 00:30:41,210 --> 00:30:41,730 你知道的 1033 00:30:41,730 --> 00:30:43,309 我们所处的周期阶段 1034 00:30:43,309 --> 00:30:45,529 没错，所以 1035 00:30:45,529 --> 00:30:47,329 在其他条件相同的情况下 1036 00:30:47,329 --> 00:30:48,509 略被低估 1037 00:30:48,509 --> 00:30:48,809 我是说 1038 00:30:48,809 --> 00:30:51,259 以格雷格·阿贝尔为首 1039 00:30:51,259 --> 00:30:54,259 今天我们对伯克希尔的了解 1040 00:30:54,259 --> 00:30:54,539 我是说 1041 00:30:54,539 --> 00:30:57,000 你还认为这是普通投资者的好防御性投资吗 1042 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:57,240 是的 1043 00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:58,079 我认为它仍是不错的选择 1044 00:30:58,079 --> 00:30:59,220 我认为仍是优质持仓 1045 00:30:59,220 --> 00:31:01,619 并且仍有改进空间 1046 00:31:01,619 --> 00:31:02,440 嗯 1047 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,000 你知道我记不清他给出的具体数字了 1048 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:10,460 但我觉得这相当于运营比率提高了约一个百分点 1049 00:31:10,460 --> 00:31:12,990 BNSF的收益将增加 1050 00:31:12,990 --> 00:31:14,569 或其运营利润将 1051 00:31:14,569 --> 00:31:15,470 增加两亿三千万 1052 00:31:15,470 --> 00:31:16,190 或者类似这样的数字 1053 00:31:16,190 --> 00:31:17,109 我的意思是 1054 00:31:17,109 --> 00:31:20,309 他们肯定有办法逐步改善 1055 00:31:20,309 --> 00:31:22,509 业务的不同部分以及其他方面 1056 00:31:22,509 --> 00:31:23,150 我觉得再次 1057 00:31:23,150 --> 00:31:26,450 我的看法是 1058 00:31:26,450 --> 00:31:28,670 现在他可以自由做出改变 1059 00:31:28,670 --> 00:31:30,289 那些他之前可能在观察的 1060 00:31:31,529 --> 00:31:33,289 监督了许多事务 1061 00:31:33,289 --> 00:31:38,680 我认为伊万杰可能比阿贝尔更有优势 1062 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:42,759 因为他同时接管了保险业务，时间在2018年初 1063 00:31:42,759 --> 00:31:46,990 但简基本进入后开始整顿 1064 00:31:46,990 --> 00:31:48,829 嗯并开始 1065 00:31:48,829 --> 00:31:49,759 你知道嗯 1066 00:31:49,759 --> 00:31:52,960 在保险业务中推动变革 1067 00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,230 但这正是因为 1068 00:31:55,230 --> 00:31:58,170 你知道他在沃顿有三十多年管理经验 1069 00:31:58,170 --> 00:31:58,930 他是沃伦的 1070 00:31:58,930 --> 00:31:59,329 你知道 1071 00:31:59,329 --> 00:32:00,029 值得信赖的 1072 00:32:00,029 --> 00:32:00,589 是的 1073 00:32:00,589 --> 00:32:01,130 你知道 1074 00:32:01,130 --> 00:32:02,349 保险领域的专家 1075 00:32:02,349 --> 00:32:04,329 所以沃伦绝不会反对 1076 00:32:04,329 --> 00:32:06,250 没人会向沃伦投诉 1077 00:32:06,250 --> 00:32:06,529 对吧 1078 00:32:06,529 --> 00:32:07,849 关于阿格的做法 1079 00:32:07,849 --> 00:32:08,089 对吧 1080 00:32:08,089 --> 00:32:09,269 他站在他们这边 1081 00:32:09,269 --> 00:32:10,190 甚至更多 1082 00:32:10,190 --> 00:32:10,609 我的意思是 1083 00:32:10,609 --> 00:32:12,869 你知道这些优质企业 1084 00:32:12,869 --> 00:32:14,269 他监管的那些公司 1085 00:32:14,269 --> 00:32:16,170 以及旗下众多公司 1086 00:32:16,170 --> 00:32:16,789 和 1087 00:32:16,789 --> 00:32:18,779 已建立的关系 1088 00:32:18,779 --> 00:32:21,980 比如巴菲特从家族成员处收购这些公司 1089 00:32:21,980 --> 00:32:25,099 我认为这对阿贝尔来说是不同局面 1090 00:32:25,099 --> 00:32:26,099 但现在我的意思是 1091 00:32:26,099 --> 00:32:26,420 他 1092 00:32:26,420 --> 00:32:27,180 就是那个人 1093 00:32:27,180 --> 00:32:27,799 他负责掌管 1094 00:32:27,799 --> 00:32:29,140 巴菲特已经明确表示 1095 00:32:29,140 --> 00:32:29,420 你知道 1096 00:32:29,420 --> 00:32:30,490 你看 1097 00:32:30,490 --> 00:32:32,470 你需要和某人谈谈 1098 00:32:32,470 --> 00:32:32,910 嗯 1099 00:32:32,910 --> 00:32:33,150 格雷格 1100 00:32:33,150 --> 00:32:34,170 非常感谢您的时间 1101 00:32:34,170 --> 00:32:36,130 我们可以整天谈论伯克希尔 1102 00:32:36,130 --> 00:32:37,670 非常感谢见到您 1103 00:32:37,670 --> 00:32:40,849 我们不久后还会请您回来继续聊伯克希尔 1104 00:32:40,849 --> 00:32:44,670 谢谢大家，如果您想了解更多关于伯克希尔的信息 1105 00:32:44,670 --> 00:32:45,259 哈撒韦 1106 00:32:45,259 --> 00:32:48,769 您可以在节目说明中找到相关链接 1107 00:32:48,769 --> 00:32:53,490 当然您还可以在Morningstar网站阅读格雷格的完整公司分析 1108 00:32:53,490 --> 00:32:54,769 希望您能加入大卫 1109 00:32:54,769 --> 00:32:55,589 萨卡拉和我 1110 00:32:55,589 --> 00:32:58,869 每个周一早上九点参加晨间滤镜播客 1111 00:32:58,869 --> 00:33:00,009 中部时间八点 1112 00:33:00,009 --> 00:33:01,700 祝投资愉快
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