茅台还是那个茅台

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当大部分人都在质疑哈茅台还有没有人喝啊

2
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白酒还能不能卖得动

3
00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:07,500
终端降价什么时候停止的时候

4
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爱茅台交了一份炸裂的数据啊

5
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我看了看1月份爱茅台卖了100多个亿

6
00:00:13,378 --> 00:00:16,759
平均的话一天啊能卖100吨

7
00:00:16,759 --> 00:00:18,719
这还是限购的情况下啊

8
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如果放开的话

9
00:00:19,559 --> 00:00:20,599
不知道什么情况

10
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你要知道茅台一年的产能才5万吨多一点啊

11
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如果按茅台一天100吨

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一年能卖3600万

13
00:00:26,289 --> 00:00:27,570
36000吨啊

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光按摩台能卖到七八十%的份额了

15
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线下经销商拿不到货了哈

16
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实际上目前线下经销商货也是断货的

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好像一年只能分到1万多吨吧

18
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很多人要加价都加到1700才能买得到

19
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但这又说明什么呢

20
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是茅台并不愁卖

21
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真的是大家担心的是能不能买到真货

22
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所以爱茅台呢相当于把假货给屏蔽掉了

23
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哎你说按茅台买的肯定是真的嘛

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厂家直发的

25
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还有很多兄弟担心说

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白酒还有没有未来的问题啊

27
00:00:54,869 --> 00:00:55,850
所有没有未来

28
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你主要看品牌里啊

29
00:00:57,409 --> 00:00:58,969
茅台不等于白酒啊

30
00:00:58,969 --> 00:01:00,109
白酒更不等于茅台

31
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你看茅台现在只要降到1499啊

32
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能保真还是供不应求

33
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实际上不光是中国美国

34
00:01:05,739 --> 00:01:08,099
我看COSTCO去了好几次500豪升呢

35
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现在也拿不到货了

36
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对这就是现实问题

37
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品牌力确实很强

38
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而且你看如果按茅台一天卖100吨啊

39
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一个月卖100多亿什么概念

40
00:01:16,290 --> 00:01:17,290
如果放开的话

41
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光按摩它一年的销售额就过千亿

42
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你像按摩它的利润比批发的话还要高

43
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十几个点呀是吧

44
00:01:23,799 --> 00:01:25,400
因为批发是1169嘛

45
00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:26,840
爱茅台直接卖1499

46
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我看看上个月

47
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爱茅台的利润比批发的话多了十几个亿啊

48
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相当于什么概念呢

49
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线下批发50%的纯利

50
00:01:34,579 --> 00:01:37,329
那直销60%以上的纯利

51
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相当于说光爱茅台一个月能赚60个亿

52
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全年下来六七百个亿

53
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当然这是放开的情况下

54
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那如果把爱茅台当成个电商平台的话

55
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那你总么给个15倍吧

56
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光爱茅台就价值1万亿啊

57
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这是毛估估

58
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所以说很多兄弟老是担心说哎呀

59
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茅台的公司要不行了

60
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一个公司行不行

61
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主要还是产品

62
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产品好不好卖啊

63
00:01:59,700 --> 00:02:00,930
会不会降价是吧

64
00:02:00,930 --> 00:02:02,010
有没有现金流啊

65
00:02:02,010 --> 00:02:04,790
能不能反馈给股东赚的钱是不是真钱啊

66
00:02:04,790 --> 00:02:05,980
如果这些都符合

67
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那说明这个公司是有价值的啊

68
00:02:07,819 --> 00:02:11,460
实际上茅台这几年下跌呢代表了一种情绪啊

69
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就大家觉得白酒的体感不好对

70
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就房地产卖不动对吧

71
00:02:15,599 --> 00:02:17,599
那白酒呢好像也是喋喋不休

72
00:02:17,599 --> 00:02:20,469
但是呢白酒的总量下滑

73
00:02:20,469 --> 00:02:22,569
但是茅台的总量并没有下滑

74
00:02:22,569 --> 00:02:24,129
它这个销量越来越集中了

75
00:02:24,129 --> 00:02:25,629
实际上这不光是茅台啊

76
00:02:25,629 --> 00:02:26,310
任何行业这样

77
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美国的这些烈酒也是

78
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你看地下迪欧百富门最近也开始起来了

79
00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,240
实际上这也是之前的啊

80
00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:33,699
经常给粉丝兄弟们分析的啊

81
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包括群里分析

82
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我就说我实际上呢你买一个消费

83
00:02:36,759 --> 00:02:38,060
就是巴菲特的原则啊

84
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首先第一个你投入这笔钱多少年能回本哈

85
00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:42,919
公司有没有每年的分红哈

86
00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:44,520
回购能反馈给你啊

87
00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:46,939
如果分红回购能给你时间回本

88
00:02:46,939 --> 00:02:48,400
那你肯定是个好生意嘛

89
00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,159
哈你担心的是这个利润能不能持续

90
00:02:51,159 --> 00:02:52,939
实际上你看白酒的这个优势

91
00:02:52,939 --> 00:02:55,360
在于说单品毛利高啊

92
00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:56,060
SKU少

93
00:02:56,060 --> 00:02:57,860
而且呢这个品牌心智强

94
00:02:57,860 --> 00:03:00,199
地下街500富门呢他有SKU太多了哈

95
00:03:00,199 --> 00:03:00,969
毛利达不到

96
00:03:00,969 --> 00:03:02,090
但即使这样呢

97
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其实今年啊欧美的消费也在慢慢的好转

98
00:03:04,909 --> 00:03:05,810
这说明什么呢

99
00:03:05,810 --> 00:03:10,169
说明任何的这个行情都是极端化来咳

100
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跌过头了就涨

101
00:03:11,719 --> 00:03:13,199
涨工头了就会跌是吧

102
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你看接下来啊消费类的头部的啊

103
00:03:15,719 --> 00:03:17,789
因为受制于这个通货膨胀嘛

104
00:03:17,789 --> 00:03:19,110
肯定慢慢慢慢又起来了

105
00:03:19,110 --> 00:03:20,129
那为什么要便宜啊

106
00:03:20,129 --> 00:03:20,770
对不对

107
00:03:20,770 --> 00:03:22,430
10~15个币估值是吧

108
00:03:22,430 --> 00:03:24,580
10~5个点的分红是吧

109
00:03:24,580 --> 00:03:26,000
那利润还在增长啊

110
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对手越来越少

111
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这种情况下

112
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你说这个公司他就是一个低谷

113
00:03:30,310 --> 00:03:32,069
所以说消费类的这个逻辑是什么呢

114
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就是如果说80%到90下跌的时候

115
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你不在

116
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那5%到十上涨的时候

117
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你也不在

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