BV1KkobBiEr8 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:13,179 --> 00:00:13,740 大家好 2 00:00:13,740 --> 00:00:14,740 欢迎回到娜娜说美股 3 00:00:14,740 --> 00:00:16,320 今天是4月22号 4 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:16,800 周三 5 00:00:20,519 --> 00:00:24,699 梅伊停火协议在反复打脸中迎来了第四次延期 6 00:00:24,699 --> 00:00:27,140 加上多份企业财报好于预期 7 00:00:27,140 --> 00:00:29,379 为市场重新注入乐观情绪 8 00:00:29,379 --> 00:00:31,280 美股三大股指集体收涨 9 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:32,079 昨天盘后 10 00:00:32,079 --> 00:00:33,100 川普发帖表示 11 00:00:33,100 --> 00:00:35,659 鉴于德黑兰政府严重分裂 12 00:00:35,659 --> 00:00:38,079 并且呢应巴铁的请求 13 00:00:38,079 --> 00:00:39,960 无限期延长美伊停火 14 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:41,960 直到伊朗内部的讨论结束 15 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:42,960 方案提交 16 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:44,479 今天一觉醒来 17 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:48,450 大约是发现无限期这个词显得自己不够硬哈 18 00:00:48,450 --> 00:00:49,890 立马改口称 19 00:00:49,890 --> 00:00:51,229 只给3~5天 20 00:00:51,229 --> 00:00:53,350 最快周五重启谈判 21 00:00:53,350 --> 00:00:55,490 这出戏呢演到现在 22 00:00:55,490 --> 00:00:57,549 市场其实在集体专下 23 00:00:57,549 --> 00:01:00,000 刻意的忽视了一个逻辑硬伤 24 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:01,820 既然伊朗内部这么分裂 25 00:01:01,820 --> 00:01:04,599 革命卫队和行政部门各唱各的 26 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:06,739 如果拿枪的不听拿笔的 27 00:01:06,739 --> 00:01:08,799 那协议签了也是白签啊 28 00:01:08,799 --> 00:01:10,379 擦屁股都嫌它太硬 29 00:01:10,379 --> 00:01:13,560 现在的局面呢就是典型的互掐脖子 30 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,079 伊朗抓着霍尔木兹海峡作为筹码 31 00:01:16,079 --> 00:01:19,239 要求美国必须先解除海上封锁 32 00:01:19,239 --> 00:01:20,780 才愿意坐下来谈 33 00:01:20,780 --> 00:01:24,739 今天伊朗炮艇呢甚至在海峡内向商船开火 34 00:01:24,739 --> 00:01:29,579 并且扣押了两艘试图穿越海峡的嗯集装箱船 35 00:01:29,579 --> 00:01:31,900 想拿航道来换取封锁 36 00:01:31,900 --> 00:01:34,780 而川普则将对伊朗港口的海上封锁 37 00:01:34,780 --> 00:01:36,599 视为美国的主要筹码 38 00:01:36,599 --> 00:01:39,879 增加伊朗内部的经济和生存压力 39 00:01:39,879 --> 00:01:42,120 逼迫伊朗回到谈判桌 40 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,340 川普村伊朗人急需现金 41 00:01:44,340 --> 00:01:47,159 甚至连军队和警察的工资都付不起了 42 00:01:47,159 --> 00:01:50,099 现在现在就看谁更拖不起哈 43 00:01:50,099 --> 00:01:52,340 美股市场对此已经脱敏了 44 00:01:52,340 --> 00:01:55,739 竟然连身处能源危机前线的韩国股市 45 00:01:55,739 --> 00:01:56,540 都不在乎哈 46 00:01:56,540 --> 00:01:58,980 那美国作为能源进出口国 47 00:01:58,980 --> 00:02:01,060 当然更没有理由认怂了 48 00:02:01,060 --> 00:02:03,140 所以无论美姨怎么折腾 49 00:02:03,140 --> 00:02:05,099 美股这一边依然牛皮的紧 50 00:02:05,099 --> 00:02:07,079 坚定地维持在高位 51 00:02:07,079 --> 00:02:10,038 财包机的强劲开局呢也提供了底气 52 00:02:10,038 --> 00:02:10,838 截止目前 53 00:02:10,838 --> 00:02:13,658 已经公布财报的标普500指数成份股中 54 00:02:13,658 --> 00:02:16,930 超过80%的公司业绩都超出预期 55 00:02:16,930 --> 00:02:19,490 摩根大通更是带头唱多哈 56 00:02:19,490 --> 00:02:21,030 认为在AI热潮之下 57 00:02:21,030 --> 00:02:23,389 美股的涨势势不可挡 58 00:02:23,389 --> 00:02:24,569 中东那点事 59 00:02:24,569 --> 00:02:28,550 充其量只是上升轨道上的几个小土坑而已 60 00:02:28,550 --> 00:02:30,300 轻轻松松就可以跨过去 61 00:02:30,300 --> 00:02:32,719 还有一个因祸得福的好消息 62 00:02:32,719 --> 00:02:36,389 就是美银认为受中东冲突影响 63 00:02:40,169 --> 00:02:43,129 而不是此前所预测的4月 64 00:02:43,129 --> 00:02:45,370 如果扰动持续时间较长 65 00:02:45,370 --> 00:02:48,009 或者受财政政策争论 66 00:02:48,009 --> 00:02:50,629 再次引发利率市场不稳定的加息 67 00:02:50,629 --> 00:02:53,150 推迟到7月份的可能性也在上升 68 00:02:53,150 --> 00:02:56,650 所以原本担心的日元套利交易反转压力 69 00:03:00,810 --> 00:03:01,370 期交易员们 70 00:03:01,370 --> 00:03:05,389 现在几乎把4月日本加息的概率已经归零了 71 00:03:05,389 --> 00:03:09,409 他们对6月加息的压注约为67% 72 00:03:09,409 --> 00:03:10,569 技术面上呢 73 00:03:10,569 --> 00:03:12,960 市场就是主打一个死不回头 74 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,860 标普500指数目前正在测试初步阻力区域 75 00:03:16,860 --> 00:03:19,370 7150~7200点 76 00:03:19,370 --> 00:03:23,729 接下来我们关注该区域是否形成拐点哈 77 00:03:23,729 --> 00:03:27,090 若是能够向上突破并且站稳呃 78 00:03:27,090 --> 00:03:29,449 那将会打开进一步上行空间 79 00:03:29,449 --> 00:03:32,780 目标指向7300甚至7450点 80 00:03:32,780 --> 00:03:34,979 若是无法突破该区域呢 81 00:03:34,979 --> 00:03:39,500 那就可能意味着阶段性的顶部在这里形成哈 82 00:03:39,500 --> 00:03:43,618 下方第一个支撑位在10日均线7000点附近啊 83 00:03:43,618 --> 00:03:45,459 其次就是6900点 84 00:03:45,459 --> 00:03:47,038 这里的第二个缺口了 85 00:03:47,038 --> 00:03:50,319 只要6860点的底库守住 86 00:03:50,319 --> 00:03:53,479 整体偏多格局呢仍将可以维持 87 00:03:53,479 --> 00:03:56,330 所以这底裤是不能够破的嗯 88 00:03:56,330 --> 00:03:58,710 但是在这一片繁荣之下 89 00:03:58,710 --> 00:04:00,969 市场底层却显现出了 90 00:04:00,969 --> 00:04:04,159 极具矛盾的资金离场迹象啊 91 00:04:04,159 --> 00:04:04,960 是的呃 92 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:06,439 一些资金开始撤退了 93 00:04:06,439 --> 00:04:08,289 根据每银披露的数据 94 00:04:08,289 --> 00:04:11,389 美银的机构客户与散户交易员 95 00:04:11,389 --> 00:04:13,789 都成群结队的在撤离 96 00:04:13,789 --> 00:04:18,379 其中机构客户过去五周中有四周卖出股票 97 00:04:18,379 --> 00:04:21,000 而散户呢连续第六周净卖出 98 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:25,418 创下自2024年2月以来最长净卖出周期 99 00:04:25,418 --> 00:04:27,538 嗯这完全是反直觉哈 100 00:04:27,538 --> 00:04:30,778 因为前段时间我们一直说散户这个踏空了 101 00:04:30,778 --> 00:04:31,939 拼命上车嘛 102 00:04:31,939 --> 00:04:33,439 等一下我们解释嗯 103 00:04:33,439 --> 00:04:35,730 到底散户现在采取什么行为哈 104 00:04:35,730 --> 00:04:38,009 作为增长引擎的科技股呢 105 00:04:38,009 --> 00:04:40,089 是卖出规模最大的板块 106 00:04:40,089 --> 00:04:42,139 在真实买盘退潮 107 00:04:42,139 --> 00:04:44,620 企业回购动能放缓的背景之下 108 00:04:44,620 --> 00:04:47,600 股指之所以仍能够维持在高位 109 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,290 核心支撑力嗯已转向上 110 00:04:50,290 --> 00:04:51,610 有的系统性力量 111 00:04:51,610 --> 00:04:56,329 目前这个市场主要就是有CTA系统化资金 112 00:04:56,329 --> 00:05:01,759 以及那些被迫对冲的做市商强行托举支撑着 113 00:05:01,759 --> 00:05:02,740 最有趣的是 114 00:05:02,740 --> 00:05:05,500 大家一边卖出股票现货 115 00:05:05,500 --> 00:05:07,860 一边呢却因为害怕踏空 116 00:05:07,860 --> 00:05:11,220 所以转身疯狂买入看涨期权 117 00:05:11,220 --> 00:05:14,060 来继续吃这个鱼尾行情 118 00:05:14,060 --> 00:05:17,949 所以那个散户呃说在撤离嗯 119 00:05:17,949 --> 00:05:18,810 也不一定错 120 00:05:18,810 --> 00:05:21,589 就是散户可能就一边卖股票呃 121 00:05:21,589 --> 00:05:26,470 一边嗯就把钱拿去买看涨期权来追逐收益嘛 122 00:05:26,470 --> 00:05:30,399 这种一边出货一边做多的非对称操作哈 123 00:05:30,399 --> 00:05:32,279 直接就把一个月标普500指数 124 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:34,000 看涨期权的偏度呢 125 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,889 呃拉到了90%的历史高位 126 00:05:36,889 --> 00:05:39,529 当前美股的这个高位震荡 127 00:05:39,529 --> 00:05:42,129 已经演变成一场有做市商对冲需求 128 00:05:42,129 --> 00:05:46,129 与系统性算法共同驱动的一个结构性的博弈 129 00:05:46,129 --> 00:05:48,579 之前高盛曾呃说过 130 00:05:48,579 --> 00:05:51,180 专家拉高的这个目的 131 00:05:51,180 --> 00:05:55,339 是要把筹码高位派发给CCTA与做市商 132 00:05:55,339 --> 00:05:58,029 现在看来似乎是有那么点意思哈 133 00:05:58,029 --> 00:05:59,870 但是高盛现在警告说啊 134 00:05:59,870 --> 00:06:01,290 CCTA的多头持仓 135 00:06:01,290 --> 00:06:03,149 现在已经达到了历史百分位的 136 00:06:03,149 --> 00:06:05,019 95%以上了呀 137 00:06:05,019 --> 00:06:07,879 接近最大持仓限额就快买够了 138 00:06:07,879 --> 00:06:08,620 买满了 139 00:06:08,620 --> 00:06:11,500 现在买盘力量正在枯竭嗯 140 00:06:11,500 --> 00:06:14,860 这个美股现在上涨越来越依赖于日内 141 00:06:14,860 --> 00:06:15,920 追涨的情绪 142 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,560 都是那些0日到期的期权的推动了哈 143 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,720 而并非系统性资金的长效流入了 144 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,079 所以呢就是现在不要再去追加杠杆 145 00:06:25,079 --> 00:06:28,560 或者再去这个买的看涨期权了 146 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:30,639 国际油价这一边继续上涨 147 00:06:30,639 --> 00:06:32,560 在第二轮谈判落空之后 148 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,620 川普单方面的延长了停火协议 149 00:06:35,620 --> 00:06:39,579 这个被市场解读为使某种程度的软弱 150 00:06:39,579 --> 00:06:41,060 或者是利益好呃 151 00:06:41,060 --> 00:06:44,939 实际上地缘风险正在暗台暗自积累啊 152 00:06:44,939 --> 00:06:46,279 如果依赖呃 153 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:48,420 就是死活不愿意回去谈判桌的话 154 00:06:48,420 --> 00:06:50,730 那这个周末就不知道发生什么事情了 155 00:06:50,730 --> 00:06:53,850 但是美股呢继续沉浸在好日子的幻想中 156 00:06:53,850 --> 00:06:55,629 因为当下的乐观情绪 157 00:06:55,629 --> 00:07:00,410 主要是有强劲的这个科技财报预期所驱动的 158 00:07:00,410 --> 00:07:03,189 对地缘风险已经暂时脱敏了 159 00:07:03,189 --> 00:07:06,790 不过要是油价这么继续涨上去的话哈 160 00:07:06,790 --> 00:07:09,230 那避险情绪可能就会突然回归 161 00:07:09,230 --> 00:07:09,899 也说不定 162 00:07:09,899 --> 00:07:13,360 费城半导体指数呢已经连续16个交易日上涨 163 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,040 创历史上最长的连涨天数 164 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,250 累计涨幅超过40% 165 00:07:18,250 --> 00:07:20,209 自1996年以来哈 166 00:07:20,209 --> 00:07:23,430 从来没出现过如此密集 167 00:07:23,430 --> 00:07:26,149 如此持久的上涨节奏 168 00:07:26,149 --> 00:07:30,149 哪怕是2000年互联网泡沫最疯狂的时候 169 00:07:30,149 --> 00:07:33,509 或者是2021年芯片荒的狂热阶段 170 00:07:33,509 --> 00:07:38,860 这个肺瓣连涨天数也大多在9~12天 171 00:07:38,860 --> 00:07:43,180 这一种这个走势是对空头的彻底的持续的碾压 172 00:07:43,180 --> 00:07:45,980 把大空头MICROBERRY的脸都给上肿了哈 173 00:07:45,980 --> 00:07:47,139 一个月前 174 00:07:47,139 --> 00:07:48,360 市场还在纠结 175 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,980 AAI投资的投资回报率何时兑现啊 176 00:07:51,980 --> 00:07:55,439 啊担心会不会重演2000年的泡沫崩盘啊 177 00:07:55,439 --> 00:07:58,360 但是现在这些声音呢全部消失了 178 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,779 取而代之的就是最纯粹的父母心力 179 00:08:01,779 --> 00:08:03,079 在金融市场 180 00:08:03,079 --> 00:08:06,019 价格本身就是最有说服力的趋势哈 181 00:08:06,019 --> 00:08:07,569 但指数一路新高 182 00:08:07,569 --> 00:08:10,410 所有的质疑自然都会被淹没 183 00:08:10,410 --> 00:08:12,569 而且本轮公司的领头羊 184 00:08:12,569 --> 00:08:14,889 不再是那些稳健的大型巨头 185 00:08:14,889 --> 00:08:16,100 虽然他们也涨了很多 186 00:08:16,100 --> 00:08:20,620 那些呃涨最多的是极具进攻性的小盘半导体股 187 00:08:20,620 --> 00:08:23,139 比如ax t i呃 188 00:08:23,139 --> 00:08:25,418 A1H2这一类个股哈 189 00:08:25,418 --> 00:08:27,959 今年涨幅已经达到三倍以上了 190 00:08:27,959 --> 00:08:30,240 这已经不是简单的业绩驱动 191 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:35,798 更像是估值重构或者是嗯投机情绪的集中示范 192 00:08:35,798 --> 00:08:39,000 但资金觉得英伟达或者台积电涨得太慢 193 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:40,059 太贵的时候 194 00:08:40,059 --> 00:08:41,240 盘子太大的时候 195 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:43,240 他们就会涌入这些流动性更小 196 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,539 弹性更大的二三线标的 197 00:08:45,539 --> 00:08:48,600 市场风险偏好已经被推到极致哈 198 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,100 这种全面开花的补涨阶段 199 00:08:51,100 --> 00:08:54,369 就我们说的那个群魔乱舞的时候 200 00:08:54,369 --> 00:08:57,389 往往也是行情进入白热化的标志 201 00:08:57,389 --> 00:08:59,568 只要和AI半导体沾边 202 00:08:59,568 --> 00:09:01,159 猪都能够飞上天 203 00:09:01,159 --> 00:09:03,120 背后呢是三股力量叠加 204 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,379 AI蓄势带来的长期想象力 205 00:09:05,379 --> 00:09:08,200 空投被迫回补的踩踏效应 206 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:11,490 以及短线资金的高杠杆投机 207 00:09:11,490 --> 00:09:12,570 三者叠加 208 00:09:12,570 --> 00:09:14,929 就形成了一场典型的加速行情 209 00:09:14,929 --> 00:09:19,019 还没有上车的资金心理防线已经彻底崩溃了呃 210 00:09:19,019 --> 00:09:22,620 于是信仰这两个字又开始被反复的提起哈 211 00:09:22,620 --> 00:09:23,740 在金融市场 212 00:09:23,740 --> 00:09:28,269 所谓的信仰呀往往就是对贪婪的一种包装嗯 213 00:09:28,269 --> 00:09:31,779 本轮上涨很大程度上是在提前透支 214 00:09:31,779 --> 00:09:34,500 AI将会改变世界的长期逻辑 215 00:09:34,500 --> 00:09:36,799 而不是当下已经兑现的业绩 216 00:09:36,799 --> 00:09:39,639 财报季就是一个很好的压力测试 217 00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:41,759 如果财报只是符合预期 218 00:09:41,759 --> 00:09:42,759 可能都撑不住 219 00:09:42,759 --> 00:09:46,980 现在的估值只有持续的超越想象的经验 220 00:09:46,980 --> 00:09:50,000 才能够维持这层金色的信仰外衣哈 221 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,828 否则的话一旦叙事和现实之间出现裂缝的话 222 00:09:53,828 --> 00:09:56,109 那像现在这个斜率的上涨 223 00:09:56,109 --> 00:09:59,629 往往也会以同样极端的方式被修正啊 224 00:09:59,629 --> 00:10:03,000 所以那个三倍杠杆做多费半的 225 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:04,919 就应该手里注意一下哈 226 00:10:04,919 --> 00:10:09,649 该锁定的利润最好就有些呃把它给落袋为安 227 00:10:09,649 --> 00:10:11,490 吃到自己手里面才是真的 228 00:10:11,490 --> 00:10:12,769 其他个股方面呢 229 00:10:12,769 --> 00:10:14,610 特斯拉今天盘后公布了财报 230 00:10:14,610 --> 00:10:17,610 公司一季度营收223.9亿美元 231 00:10:17,610 --> 00:10:19,078 同比增长16% 232 00:10:19,078 --> 00:10:21,658 略好于预期的222亿美元 233 00:10:21,658 --> 00:10:23,818 调整后每股收益41美分 234 00:10:23,818 --> 00:10:25,499 也超过预期34美分 235 00:10:25,499 --> 00:10:27,399 同比增长52% 236 00:10:27,399 --> 00:10:29,919 毛利润率为21.1% 237 00:10:29,919 --> 00:10:31,980 高于预期的17.7% 238 00:10:31,980 --> 00:10:33,320 股价盘后上涨 239 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,940 公司表示它的电动汽车全球需求正在回暖 240 00:10:36,940 --> 00:10:37,700 整体而言 241 00:10:37,700 --> 00:10:41,419 这些数据比市场嗯原先悲观的预期要好得多 242 00:10:43,279 --> 00:10:46,759 目前也就特斯拉股价还没有回到历史前高附近 243 00:10:46,759 --> 00:10:49,360 所以这个看来是要补涨了哈 244 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,399 但是呢软件股这边可能就不太妙了 245 00:10:52,399 --> 00:10:54,919 ServiceNow盘后公布了一季度财报 246 00:10:54,919 --> 00:10:57,000 营收37.7亿美元 247 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:58,779 同比增长22% 248 00:10:58,779 --> 00:11:00,240 基本符合预期 249 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,460 净利润4.69亿美元 250 00:11:02,460 --> 00:11:04,389 每股收益是15美分 251 00:11:04,389 --> 00:11:07,929 年度合同价值超过100万美元的嗯 252 00:11:07,929 --> 00:11:08,750 Now assist 253 00:11:08,750 --> 00:11:12,399 这个客户同比增长超过130% 254 00:11:12,399 --> 00:11:14,899 上调了全年订阅收入预期 255 00:11:14,899 --> 00:11:17,639 预计全年订阅收入157.4亿 256 00:11:17,639 --> 00:11:19,899 到157.8亿美元之间 257 00:11:19,899 --> 00:11:22,620 高于预期的155.4亿美元 258 00:11:22,620 --> 00:11:24,000 数据都不错哈 259 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,179 但是呢股价却在盘后重错 260 00:11:26,179 --> 00:11:30,019 问题就出在公司表示由于地缘政治不利因素 261 00:11:30,019 --> 00:11:33,950 2026财年将会面临一些嗯短期利润率压力 262 00:11:33,950 --> 00:11:39,000 但是这个华尔街似乎并不是很相信这个理由 263 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:43,419 觉得呃这是把锅甩给那个中东冲突上面 264 00:11:43,419 --> 00:11:47,318 实际上啊会不会是因为AI颠覆啊之类的 265 00:11:47,318 --> 00:11:48,099 股价呢 266 00:11:48,099 --> 00:11:50,399 最近刚好就反弹到50日均线 267 00:11:50,399 --> 00:11:51,759 这个中期阻力位了 268 00:11:51,759 --> 00:11:54,029 那现在又要被打下去了哈 269 00:11:54,029 --> 00:11:56,669 也连累了整个软件板块情绪 270 00:11:56,669 --> 00:11:59,210 现在盘后其他软件股都跌了 271 00:11:59,210 --> 00:12:01,409 德州一期盘后公布财报 272 00:12:01,409 --> 00:12:02,309 股价大涨 273 00:12:02,309 --> 00:12:04,980 公司第一季度营收48.3亿一美元 274 00:12:04,980 --> 00:12:06,379 同比增长19% 275 00:12:06,379 --> 00:12:08,299 净利润15.5亿美元 276 00:12:08,299 --> 00:12:09,919 每股收益1.68美元 277 00:12:09,919 --> 00:12:11,490 都超出市场预期 278 00:12:11,490 --> 00:12:13,289 二季度指引也乐观 279 00:12:13,289 --> 00:12:16,470 股价在财报前已经经历了一轮大涨 280 00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:18,049 创出新高了 281 00:12:18,049 --> 00:12:20,889 这一份财报吧虽然是不错 282 00:12:20,889 --> 00:12:23,029 但不算多么让人惊艳 283 00:12:23,029 --> 00:12:26,710 所以呢我不太确定他还能不能够继续支持 284 00:12:26,710 --> 00:12:28,190 这个股票的估值 285 00:12:28,190 --> 00:12:29,480 继续这么扩张 286 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:32,120 谷歌在拉斯维加斯举行的cloud next 287 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,240 的2026大会上呢 288 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,460 嗯发布了两款全新的AI芯片 289 00:12:37,460 --> 00:12:40,500 TPU8T和TPU8I呃 290 00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:44,500 首次将这个训练与推理拆开来做 291 00:12:44,500 --> 00:12:47,340 TPU8T呢负责教AI学习 292 00:12:47,340 --> 00:12:48,860 用于模型训练 293 00:12:48,860 --> 00:12:51,879 而TPU8爱呢只负责让AI干活 294 00:12:51,879 --> 00:12:55,159 就是模型训练完成之后的推理阶段 295 00:12:55,159 --> 00:12:56,679 这种拆分意味着 296 00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:00,240 谷歌在AI基础设施上开始走向更精细化 297 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,259 分工目标就是提升效率 298 00:13:02,259 --> 00:13:03,470 降低成本 299 00:13:03,470 --> 00:13:06,950 这其实是整个科技巨头阵营的共同方向 300 00:13:06,950 --> 00:13:08,309 就是自己做芯片 301 00:13:08,309 --> 00:13:10,250 减少对英伟达的依赖 302 00:13:10,250 --> 00:13:12,769 谷歌算是最早行动的玩家之一哈 303 00:13:12,769 --> 00:13:17,039 早在2015年就开始用自研芯片跑AI模型了 304 00:13:17,039 --> 00:13:20,259 2018年开始对外出租TPU算力 305 00:13:20,259 --> 00:13:23,990 按照这个d a division此前的估算呢 306 00:13:23,990 --> 00:13:25,590 光是TPU业务点击 307 00:13:25,590 --> 00:13:28,740 它的估值就已经接近9000亿美元 308 00:13:28,740 --> 00:13:31,450 已经算是一个算力领域的隐形巨头了 309 00:13:31,450 --> 00:13:34,450 而亚马逊微软meta也都在跟进哈 310 00:13:34,450 --> 00:13:38,250 亚马逊在2018年推出inference下做推理 311 00:13:38,250 --> 00:13:41,089 2020年的三线training做训练 312 00:13:41,089 --> 00:13:43,849 微软今年初发布了第二代AI芯片 313 00:13:43,849 --> 00:13:45,749 meta则是和博通合作 314 00:13:45,749 --> 00:13:47,860 加速自研芯片布局 315 00:13:47,860 --> 00:13:49,620 大家的思路其实很一致啦 316 00:13:49,620 --> 00:13:50,720 就是在AI时代 317 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,068 算力就是命脉 318 00:13:52,068 --> 00:13:54,629 不能够完全掌握在别人手里吗 319 00:13:54,629 --> 00:13:55,668 尽管如此 320 00:13:55,668 --> 00:13:58,349 目前这些巨头们的自研芯片哈 321 00:13:58,349 --> 00:14:00,059 更多还是补充方案 322 00:14:00,059 --> 00:14:04,100 还远远谈不上撼动英伟达的统治地位 323 00:14:04,100 --> 00:14:06,220 甚至谷歌这次发布新的TPU 324 00:14:06,220 --> 00:14:10,629 也刻意的回避了与英伟达正面对比性能呃 325 00:14:10,629 --> 00:14:12,730 英伟达股价高位震荡了大半年时间 326 00:14:12,730 --> 00:14:14,509 终于突破了这个区间阻力 327 00:14:14,509 --> 00:14:16,120 再次回到200美元上方 328 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:17,440 希望不要再掉下来啦 329 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,559 不要再让那个老2AMD在旁边看笑话 330 00:14:20,559 --> 00:14:22,820 GEB股价呢季后大涨 331 00:14:22,820 --> 00:14:26,360 受益于AI数据中心与电网升级热炒 332 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,539 公司一季度业绩大爆发 333 00:14:28,539 --> 00:14:31,320 订单额同比飙升71% 334 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,379 单季自有现金流达到了48亿美元 335 00:14:34,379 --> 00:14:35,860 同比翻了三倍多 336 00:14:35,860 --> 00:14:38,149 而且超过去年全年总额 337 00:14:38,149 --> 00:14:41,429 即便它的分店业务受到关税拖累 338 00:14:41,429 --> 00:14:44,379 但是公司仍然大幅上调全年指引 339 00:14:44,379 --> 00:14:48,250 将资有现金流目标终止提升了近40% 340 00:14:48,250 --> 00:14:52,450 显示全球电力基础设施进入加速扩张周期 341 00:14:52,450 --> 00:14:53,850 股价跳空高开 342 00:14:53,850 --> 00:14:55,539 再创历史新高啊 343 00:14:55,539 --> 00:14:56,679 趋势非常的强哈 344 00:14:56,679 --> 00:14:58,519 后市仍持续看好 345 00:14:58,519 --> 00:14:59,460 这一份财报 346 00:14:59,460 --> 00:15:03,669 可以说是AI电力链条的典型的爆发嗯 347 00:15:03,669 --> 00:15:05,230 波音财报呢超预期 348 00:15:05,230 --> 00:15:06,730 股价日内波动比较大 349 00:15:06,730 --> 00:15:08,629 开盘先出现了一波跳水 350 00:15:08,629 --> 00:15:10,269 之后再震荡拉回 351 00:15:10,269 --> 00:15:12,210 最终还是收涨5.5% 352 00:15:12,210 --> 00:15:14,730 公司一季度营收222亿美元 353 00:15:14,730 --> 00:15:16,169 同比增长14% 354 00:15:16,169 --> 00:15:20,289 净亏损大幅收窄到七七百万美元呃 355 00:15:20,289 --> 00:15:23,509 去年同期为亏损3100万美元 356 00:15:23,509 --> 00:15:26,169 尽管仍没能够实现扭亏为盈 357 00:15:26,169 --> 00:15:30,899 但基引现金流和核心利润指标呢都显著的改善 358 00:15:30,899 --> 00:15:33,320 商用飞机交付量增长了10% 359 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:37,220 手里的积压订单更是高达6950亿美元 360 00:15:37,220 --> 00:15:37,940 创新高 361 00:15:37,940 --> 00:15:40,340 所以需求端是完全没有问题的 362 00:15:40,340 --> 00:15:43,009 但是现金流压力依然存在 363 00:15:43,009 --> 00:15:47,110 公司一季度经营现金流为负的1.79亿美元 364 00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:49,830 虽然比去年同期的-16.4 365 00:15:49,830 --> 00:15:51,590 6亿美元的大幅收窄 366 00:15:51,590 --> 00:15:52,940 但是仍没有转正 367 00:15:52,940 --> 00:15:53,879 与此同时 368 00:15:53,879 --> 00:15:56,059 账上现金从294亿美元 369 00:15:56,059 --> 00:15:57,639 降到了209亿美元 370 00:15:57,639 --> 00:16:00,389 主要是用于还债和资本开支 371 00:16:00,389 --> 00:16:03,210 公司就是一边在加速产能爬坡 372 00:16:03,210 --> 00:16:05,078 一边呢在主动去杠杆 373 00:16:05,078 --> 00:16:08,038 单季就偿还了70亿美元的债务 374 00:16:08,038 --> 00:16:10,389 资本开支也翻倍增长嗯 375 00:16:10,389 --> 00:16:13,668 这说明哈公司是在修复的路上 376 00:16:13,668 --> 00:16:15,299 但是还没有走到终点 377 00:16:15,299 --> 00:16:17,279 现金流何时能够转正 378 00:16:17,279 --> 00:16:21,490 是投资者最为关注的下一个关键里程碑 379 00:16:21,490 --> 00:16:25,590 公司目前仍保有100亿美元的备用信贷额度 380 00:16:25,590 --> 00:16:26,870 尚且没有动用 381 00:16:26,870 --> 00:16:30,568 这也为应对未来不确定性预留了缓冲空间 382 00:16:30,568 --> 00:16:32,349 太空概念股今天普涨 383 00:16:32,349 --> 00:16:36,409 资金明显在往这个新故事方向重新聚集嗯 384 00:16:36,409 --> 00:16:38,870 RDW涨了15.7% 385 00:16:38,870 --> 00:16:40,370 SIDU涨了8% 386 00:16:40,370 --> 00:16:42,649 AST涨了5.8% 387 00:16:42,649 --> 00:16:43,529 公司宣布 388 00:16:43,529 --> 00:16:47,649 美国联邦通信委员会已经授予他商用授权 389 00:16:47,649 --> 00:16:51,990 允许公司在美国境内提供太空直连手机的嗯 390 00:16:51,990 --> 00:16:53,450 蜂窝宽带服务 391 00:16:53,450 --> 00:16:56,730 也就是说未来手机在没有地面记账的情况之下 392 00:16:56,730 --> 00:16:58,789 也能直接连上卫星嗯 393 00:16:58,789 --> 00:17:02,049 实现通信这个事情的意义对公司不小哈 394 00:17:02,049 --> 00:17:03,889 它标志着天地一体通信 395 00:17:03,889 --> 00:17:06,318 开始进入真正的商业化阶段了 396 00:17:06,318 --> 00:17:07,659 一旦落地顺利 397 00:17:07,659 --> 00:17:09,798 不仅能够覆盖偏远地区 398 00:17:09,798 --> 00:17:12,509 还能够重塑全球通信格局 399 00:17:12,509 --> 00:17:13,089 当然了 400 00:17:13,089 --> 00:17:13,829 短期来看 401 00:17:13,829 --> 00:17:16,869 这类公司仍处于高投入强预期阶段 402 00:17:16,869 --> 00:17:18,769 股价更多还是有想象空间 403 00:17:18,769 --> 00:17:20,679 驱动的波动也会非常的大 404 00:17:20,679 --> 00:17:25,318 波士顿科学vs x1季度业绩的超预期 405 00:17:25,318 --> 00:17:26,828 股价涨跌9% 406 00:17:26,828 --> 00:17:29,028 净销售额52亿美元 407 00:17:29,028 --> 00:17:30,969 同比增长11.6% 408 00:17:30,969 --> 00:17:32,788 依然维持两位数的增长 409 00:17:32,788 --> 00:17:36,289 只是相比2025年那种爆发式增长呢 410 00:17:36,289 --> 00:17:38,279 节奏开始回归正常 411 00:17:38,279 --> 00:17:40,079 核心业务表现扎实 412 00:17:40,079 --> 00:17:42,759 尤其是在美国市场的需求依然强劲 413 00:17:42,759 --> 00:17:45,250 这个是支撑它股价上涨的关键 414 00:17:45,250 --> 00:17:48,130 但是管理层对未来仍相对谨慎 415 00:17:48,130 --> 00:17:50,720 还下调了2026年全年指引 416 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:51,880 并且明确表示 417 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,519 2026年第二季度 418 00:17:53,519 --> 00:17:56,519 可能会是全年最困难的阶段 419 00:17:56,519 --> 00:17:57,799 这种当前很好 420 00:17:57,799 --> 00:17:59,319 但是前景降温的组合 421 00:17:59,319 --> 00:18:02,119 让色彩在乐观中就带着一丝保留哈 422 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,680 嗯股价此前由于已经跌了很多 423 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,839 今天上涨可能也有部分空头回补的原因 424 00:18:07,839 --> 00:18:12,799 直觉外科i is rg的表现呢则更偏确定性 425 00:18:12,799 --> 00:18:14,180 质成长 426 00:18:14,180 --> 00:18:17,140 公司一季度业绩同样超出预期 427 00:18:17,140 --> 00:18:20,049 在宏观环境让不稳定的情备 428 00:18:20,049 --> 00:18:23,029 在宏观环境让不稳定的背景下 429 00:18:23,029 --> 00:18:26,740 机器人手术的需求呢依然保持强劲增长 430 00:18:26,740 --> 00:18:31,160 达芬奇手术系统的装机量和使用频率持续提升 431 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:35,960 说明医院端对提效和微创手术的需求没有减弱 432 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,039 相比一些周期性行业哈 433 00:18:38,039 --> 00:18:40,720 致力提高医疗效率的技术路径呢 434 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,000 具备更强的抗周期属性 435 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,259 也因此更容易获得资金的持续关注 436 00:18:46,259 --> 00:18:48,730 存储板块继续走强 437 00:18:48,730 --> 00:18:51,289 美光科技今天又涨了8.5% 438 00:18:51,289 --> 00:18:53,329 刷新历史新高嗯 439 00:18:53,329 --> 00:18:54,269 消息面上 440 00:18:54,269 --> 00:18:56,109 高盛研究显示 441 00:18:56,109 --> 00:18:59,799 仅美光科技一家公司就贡献了标普500 442 00:18:59,799 --> 00:19:02,140 盈利预期上调了百约51% 443 00:19:02,140 --> 00:19:06,420 成了美股本轮盈利预期上调的核心推动力 444 00:19:06,420 --> 00:19:07,819 在财报发布之前 445 00:19:07,819 --> 00:19:11,240 高盛已经将美观列为重点看好标的 446 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,240 对公司2026年每股收益的预测 447 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,449 比市场一致预期还高出了大约19% 448 00:19:17,449 --> 00:19:21,288 所以该股现在又成为资金追逐的焦点 449 00:19:21,288 --> 00:19:24,200 更夸张的其实是增速本身呃 450 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:25,619 当前市场一至预期 451 00:19:25,619 --> 00:19:26,099 美观 452 00:19:26,099 --> 00:19:27,279 2026年每股收益 453 00:19:27,279 --> 00:19:30,250 同比增长将高达605% 454 00:19:30,250 --> 00:19:32,130 而自2月下旬以来呢 455 00:19:32,130 --> 00:19:35,190 盈利预期已经被上调了大约93% 456 00:19:35,190 --> 00:19:37,309 就短短几周接近翻倍 457 00:19:37,309 --> 00:19:38,589 这种级别的修正 458 00:19:38,589 --> 00:19:42,109 在成熟的大盘股中是极为罕见的 459 00:19:42,109 --> 00:19:43,849 核心驱动力来自两点 460 00:19:43,849 --> 00:19:46,659 一是AI基础设施需求爆发 461 00:19:46,659 --> 00:19:48,199 对高带宽内存 462 00:19:48,199 --> 00:19:52,558 HBM以及各类存储产品的需求全面抬升 463 00:19:52,558 --> 00:19:55,920 二呢是国防和高性能计算投入增加 464 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,440 进一步推高了半导体景气度 465 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,539 这些变化正在被分析师快速写进 466 00:20:01,539 --> 00:20:02,000 模型 467 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:03,900 直接就反映到盈利预测上 468 00:20:03,900 --> 00:20:07,460 存储股现在呢其实就处于一个利润暴涨 469 00:20:07,460 --> 00:20:09,809 但是估值却还不高的阶段 470 00:20:09,809 --> 00:20:11,289 从利润规模来看 471 00:20:11,289 --> 00:20:15,609 三星今年预计净利润会达到一千五百十亿美元 472 00:20:15,609 --> 00:20:18,349 SK海力士大约1150亿美元 473 00:20:18,349 --> 00:20:20,990 都远高于台积电的八百十亿美元 474 00:20:20,990 --> 00:20:22,789 但是在估值层面哈 475 00:20:22,789 --> 00:20:25,869 存储板块整体仍明显低于AI 476 00:20:25,869 --> 00:20:27,380 算力链其他龙头 477 00:20:27,380 --> 00:20:29,819 这种赚的多给的少的错配 478 00:20:29,819 --> 00:20:31,849 正是多头最看重的机会 479 00:20:31,849 --> 00:20:32,569 他们认为 480 00:20:32,569 --> 00:20:35,210 AI需求已经从HBM扩散到了 481 00:20:35,210 --> 00:20:37,829 d ram和闪存等通用产品 482 00:20:37,829 --> 00:20:38,170 行业 483 00:20:38,170 --> 00:20:40,589 正在进入一个供需紧张 484 00:20:40,589 --> 00:20:42,659 价格上行的新周期 485 00:20:42,659 --> 00:20:45,038 但是空头则坚持认为 486 00:20:45,038 --> 00:20:48,098 存储行业历来是强周期行业 487 00:20:48,098 --> 00:20:50,049 嗯盈利波动极大 488 00:20:50,049 --> 00:20:53,109 低估值是对这一个历史规律的合理定价 489 00:20:53,109 --> 00:20:55,509 市场需要更多的证据才会相信 490 00:20:55,509 --> 00:20:58,460 这一轮景气是结构性的深极哈 491 00:20:58,460 --> 00:21:00,700 而不是又一轮周期的顶点 492 00:21:00,700 --> 00:21:03,220 才能够给予更高的溢价 493 00:21:03,220 --> 00:21:06,880 就是呃存储不再是过去的存储啦 494 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,079 而是钮祜禄式存储 495 00:21:09,079 --> 00:21:12,180 接下来呢这个验证很快就会到来 496 00:21:12,180 --> 00:21:15,420 SK海力士将会在本周四公布财报 497 00:21:15,420 --> 00:21:17,140 三星紧随其后 498 00:21:17,140 --> 00:21:20,059 这两份财报很可能成为这一场高增长 499 00:21:20,059 --> 00:21:23,579 是否值得高估值争论的关键分水岭 500 00:21:23,579 --> 00:21:25,920 行今天我们就讲到这里 501 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:27,460 那我们明天见拜拜
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