美股 你不买，我不买，都看戏！SPCX吸血，期权看点！SOXX大跌更新，MSFT取消ORCL租用协议！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年6月16号

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周二晚上的8.35分

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上窜下跳

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猫一天狗一天啊

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四大指数啊

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昨天呢是纳指领涨啊

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那么今天呢是今年以来啊

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道指和纳指之间的第三大单日背离

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费城半导体指数跌了近6%啊

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也是拖累了纳指和标普500指数

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在板块方面

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除了科技和能源之外

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标普11个板块中有九个上涨诶

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大家看到没有发现

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是不是有一些不一样

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分别是像什么半导体GPU啊

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CPU光模块存储

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另外呢今天的软件啊

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依旧还是表现的比较的疲软

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并没有因为半导体的走弱就迎来资金

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相比之下呢

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整个的周期板块今天的表现非常的优秀

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特别是金融和工业板块的涨幅最大

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昨天的节目呢

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其实咱们谈到了

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关于在上个星期的一些资金流动啊

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其实标普里边11个板块

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九个板块资金是净流出的啊

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那么只有金融和工业是净流入的

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那么今天呢他们继续是领涨市场

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那么今天整个的市场呢其实有助于啊

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就是得益于向金融和工业的这个上涨

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平衡了标普的这个下跌啊

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如果不是他们还不错

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其实今天的标普应该走的会更差一些

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呃相信大家看到今天的这个板块的变化呢

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应该是发现整个市场在今天的风格

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至少是出现了一些明显的变化

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市场的广度似乎正在扩大

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那么科技股呢从之前的吸血者

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变成了其他板块的供血来源

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那么这个趋势啊到底是真正的趋势啊

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还是35日前的一个混乱啊

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咱们需要多观察几天

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因为6月18号是35日的这个结算啊

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所以呢我们要等一等

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因为通常在这种时候

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有的时候表现的比较混乱

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但是如果像金融

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工业板块或者其他的非科技板块

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能够在未来的两天持续保持一个强势

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而科技股持续保持一个弱势

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那很有可能代表着在二季度的这个时候啊

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二季度末的时候市场资金正在进行轮动啊

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那么进入三季度之后

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科技板可能科技板块的这个整体

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在最近的这个强势的势头呢就要弱一些

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好我们说一下关于今天的半导体啊

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今天的半导体呢本身开盘之后啊

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就是一路往下走

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走的就不好

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结果呢是传来一个新的消息

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就是微软取消了与甲骨文的云服务的合作协议

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所以整个的抛售压力其实在尾盘还有所加剧

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咱们今天呢先把这个事情给大家说一下啊

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好我们首先看一下呃关于这一个事件的细节呃

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根据这个business insider的报道呢

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这笔交易的价值啊是超过了30亿美元

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那么这个计划原本是将部分微软工作负载

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迁移到甲骨文的云基础设施

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但是呢甲骨文的公有云

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没有联邦风险和授权管理计划

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这个计划是一个标准化的安全框架

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旨在确保云服务足够安全

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能够处理美国政府的数据

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那么一位知情人士透露说呢

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甲骨文不愿意添加这个框架啊

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不知道是什么原因啊

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不过呢从甲骨文的回复来看啊

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似乎呢有分歧

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甲骨文公司是否认了这一独家报道

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有一位发言人表示说啊

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文章中提到的细节并不准确

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但是呢他又拒绝透露哪里不准确

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微软呢是既是甲骨文的合作伙伴

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他说也是我们的客户

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我们建立了非常密切且富有成效的合作关系

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经常探讨如何拓展我们正在进行的合作

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那么这个事情为什么重要啊

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其实呢呃甲骨文我们知道他在举债

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建立更多的大型数据中心

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如果因为合规的问题啊

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导致客户不愿意跟你签单

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那么这个对于甲骨文来讲

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他肯定是一个信心上的打击

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如果客户做出谨慎的选择

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那么数据中心的建设未来有可能会放缓啊

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所以呢这就会影响到半导体设备的供应商

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因为我们说其实从资本支出的角度来讲

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四大科技加上甲骨文啊

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属于目前最大的支出的一个来源啊

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所以这算是一个对于半导体上的一个

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潜在的一个小小的利空

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但是呢今天整个的半导体实际上下跌

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不完全是因为这个原因

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因为在这个消息出来之前

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已经开始在跌了啊

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等会会讲到关于最近的这个资金的一些

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流动的情况啊

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好那我们还是甲骨文的骨架

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简单的看一下吧

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啊因为它的变化实际上不大

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呃

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甲骨文的变化呢

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实际上在最近的这个呃几个区间里边呢

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实际上还是在这里在运行啊

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下来上去上来下去

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就是在这么个几圈来回的摆动

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从上面掉下来之后呃

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总体的趋势上呢

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甲骨文在这一轮已经是上涨的不错了

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但是上次的这个财报确实我们也看到了

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市场抛压还是比较大的

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抛压下去之后跟着市场反弹了两天

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那么最高呢去到了194啊

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这个压力他也没过去啊

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这个我是压力是9号写的

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我们往下要挪啊

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这个支撑因为变成了压力

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他要回到203的上方才能够叫突破压力啊

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现在叫承压回落啊

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所以呢没有什么太大的变化好

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那么讲到微软呢也过一下啊

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简单的说一下变化也不大

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那么在过去的两天呢

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微软这边也是一个反弹上去

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然后今天呢是一个回落又下来啊

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还是在跌破了392之后陷入了一个震荡

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目前的情况是反弹392~435

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承压

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突破

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435才能看一个重回呃

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上行的这么一个过程啊

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所以呢大家现在呢很多朋友说

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这个地方是不是止跌了

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它又开始要涨了

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还没有啊

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因为这个地方掉下去之后

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就要陷入一个比较长时间的震荡

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下方呢仍有几率会看到375下方啊

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所以大家这个之前的仓位分配

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预留在375下方的

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仍旧应该继续的等待更多的较好的信号的出现

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好这个呢就是关于几个小的消息啊

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接下来我想来说一下

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关于space x今天的一些最新进展

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以及对于市场的影响

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首先呢我想把这个和它相关的一条消息

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和大家过一下啊

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呃space x呢是已经同意以600亿美元

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收购人工智能编码初创公司科森

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那么SPACEX呢是

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今天我们看到他已经向美国证监会提交了

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8K文件

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宣布了这个收购

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那么这个交易细节显示呢

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那么COSR的股东啊会获得space x a类普通股

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这个就意味着呢

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它的股权价值差不多是600亿美元

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那么当然这个肯定会稀释一部分

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SPACEX的这个股权价值

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但现在咱们也讲过啊

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它呢不用看估值

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因为现在的流通股数量非常的低

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实际上正在流通的股份呢

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差不多也就是在1000亿1000亿左右啊

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并不是几万亿

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大部分都是被锁定的状态啊

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所以所有的锁定的股票

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未来都被释放出来的时候啊

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那他这个估值呢其实是比较难以去呃持续的

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这是实话实说

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因为基本面确实是值不了这个价啊

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好呃那么这个消息呢其实整个的我们说呃

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对于SPACEX来讲呢

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也是它整个的AI版图中的一个部分呃

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他在三个最大的业务里边其实最有想象力啊

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或者说在招股说明书中贡献度最大的

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对估值部分其实就是和AI相关

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所以他的这个growth相关的一些东西啊

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就是XAI公司的这个相关模型

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我们都知道

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在和目前的前沿的大型模型的竞争中

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其实并不是说那么的强

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那么这次的收购呢

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就相当于帮他补了一块短板啊

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这是他最大的一个意义

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好呃

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当然这个收购呢需要等待监管满足条件之后

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才能够完成啊

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现在呢咱们还没有办法

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这个确认是不是一定能够成功

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因为这个行业其实呃

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其实反垄断还是比较厉害的好

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接下来呢我想讲一下关于呃

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SPACEX的期权的上线后的情况啊

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今天给大家

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因为他这支股票的热度非常高啊

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所以呢跟大家跟一下啊

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这个也是帮大家呢

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有一些信息给大家提供一下啊

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怕大家有的朋友呢是蒙着眼睛哼

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给大家讲一下啊

218
00:09:52,100 --> 00:09:54,799
这里边期权的情况是怎么个回事儿

219
00:09:54,799 --> 00:09:59,440
呃SPACEX的期权呢是今天第一天开始交易啊

220
00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:00,679
非常的火爆啊

221
00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,580
今天盘中我们看一下它的价格

222
00:10:03,580 --> 00:10:07,429
最高的时候曾经冲到过225

223
00:10:07,429 --> 00:10:10,000
大幅上涨了16%

224
00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,820
然后呢震荡到尾盘大幅回落

225
00:10:13,820 --> 00:10:17,960
那么最终今天是收涨了4.83%

226
00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:19,740
那么在期权的推动下

227
00:10:19,740 --> 00:10:23,419
我们可以看到今天的振幅非常的大啊

228
00:10:23,419 --> 00:10:25,669
高达15%

229
00:10:25,669 --> 00:10:27,830
好这里我要提醒一下

230
00:10:27,830 --> 00:10:33,509
18号是他期权上线后的第一个到期日啊

231
00:10:33,509 --> 00:10:36,919
第一个目前的看法是

232
00:10:36,919 --> 00:10:37,919
这个期权呢

233
00:10:37,919 --> 00:10:40,580
同样是我们是要看一个短期的资金流向

234
00:10:40,580 --> 00:10:43,220
因为这个现在的所有的这个价格波动啊

235
00:10:43,220 --> 00:10:44,909
它都和投机有关

236
00:10:44,909 --> 00:10:46,750
和价值无关啊

237
00:10:46,750 --> 00:10:48,759
我们讲过多次这个问题

238
00:10:48,759 --> 00:10:54,259
那么它在几个关键的位置大家要注意啊

239
00:10:54,259 --> 00:10:56,519
就是现在关键位置

240
00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:01,659
他目前的情况是存在着双向挤压的可能性

241
00:11:01,659 --> 00:11:03,139
什么叫双向挤压

242
00:11:03,139 --> 00:11:06,919
就是向上挤压大涨和向下挤压大跌

243
00:11:06,919 --> 00:11:08,740
两个都有可能

244
00:11:08,740 --> 00:11:11,889
我把几个上下位置给大家列一下

245
00:11:11,889 --> 00:11:14,529
我先说一下向下的挤压

246
00:11:14,529 --> 00:11:16,549
它的几个重要的位置

247
00:11:16,549 --> 00:11:21,960
分别是两百一百九和180

248
00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:26,169
也就是说月临近18号到期

249
00:11:26,169 --> 00:11:29,549
如果离这几个价格越近啊

250
00:11:29,549 --> 00:11:32,250
或者是已经进入了价内啊

251
00:11:32,250 --> 00:11:34,389
就是put看跌期权的价内

252
00:11:34,389 --> 00:11:39,479
向下挤压的概率就越高啊

253
00:11:39,479 --> 00:11:42,058
两百一百九和180

254
00:11:42,058 --> 00:11:44,559
当然是一档一档的过啊

255
00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:46,000
不是说一口气啊

256
00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,539
好这是向下的位置

257
00:11:48,539 --> 00:11:50,690
那么看涨方面呢

258
00:11:50,690 --> 00:11:55,509
目前的看涨期权整体市场是多于看跌期权

259
00:11:55,509 --> 00:11:59,539
向上的几个位置分布的也更加的广泛

260
00:11:59,539 --> 00:12:02,720
分别是210

261
00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:04,279
220

262
00:12:04,279 --> 00:12:05,899
250

263
00:12:05,899 --> 00:12:08,950
300和380

264
00:12:09,269 --> 00:12:12,230
如果临近到期进入了价内

265
00:12:12,230 --> 00:12:16,210
那么向上挤压的概率就更高

266
00:12:16,210 --> 00:12:18,769
好那么现在今天收盘收到201

267
00:12:18,769 --> 00:12:21,509
大家说哎这个价格不是离200很近了吗

268
00:12:21,509 --> 00:12:23,929
大家看一下盘后的这个控制啊

269
00:12:23,929 --> 00:12:26,350
是在205附近

270
00:12:26,669 --> 00:12:27,909
205附近

271
00:12:27,909 --> 00:12:28,590
什么意思呢

272
00:12:28,590 --> 00:12:30,970
离200和210都差不多对吧

273
00:12:30,970 --> 00:12:33,159
都差了差不多就是五块钱吧

274
00:12:33,159 --> 00:12:37,159
所以这是一个平衡的中性位置啊

275
00:12:37,159 --> 00:12:40,860
这是一个比较精确的后面的一个价格

276
00:12:40,860 --> 00:12:43,580
这个价格呢控制在这个地方

277
00:12:43,580 --> 00:12:46,330
短线的强弱看什么东西呢

278
00:12:46,330 --> 00:12:51,639
只需要看200和210这两个关口的争夺啊

279
00:12:51,639 --> 00:12:52,980
特别是大家要关注一下

280
00:12:52,980 --> 00:12:55,840
明天在17号的收盘

281
00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,440
因为它离18号非常的近啊

282
00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:03,440
到底是收在200的下方还是210的上方

283
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,578
这个呢就对于短线强弱有一些影响

284
00:13:06,578 --> 00:13:10,099
短线啊短线因为它现在非常的短

285
00:13:10,099 --> 00:13:12,750
另外呢估计有朋友看到说哎呀

286
00:13:12,750 --> 00:13:13,960
有的新闻报道说

287
00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,679
SPACEX有可能会被挤压到400块钱

288
00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:17,440
好兴奋啊

289
00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,769
我直接干个400的380的期权行不行

290
00:13:20,769 --> 00:13:21,889
我告诉大家呢

291
00:13:21,889 --> 00:13:24,509
这个概率极低极低

292
00:13:24,509 --> 00:13:28,029
主要是因为380那个价位呢

293
00:13:28,029 --> 00:13:31,389
其实已经有不少的那个位置啊

294
00:13:31,389 --> 00:13:31,990
就是我们说

295
00:13:31,990 --> 00:13:34,190
如果刚才不是讲到380一个关键位置吗

296
00:13:34,190 --> 00:13:36,919
380那个位置一旦产生挤压

297
00:13:36,919 --> 00:13:39,578
确实它就会跑到接近400

298
00:13:39,578 --> 00:13:41,599
但他之前还有好几个关口呢

299
00:13:41,599 --> 00:13:42,019
210

300
00:13:42,019 --> 00:13:42,418
220

301
00:13:42,418 --> 00:13:42,859
250

302
00:13:42,859 --> 00:13:43,399
300呢

303
00:13:43,399 --> 00:13:45,539
这中间还差了好多对吧

304
00:13:45,539 --> 00:13:47,340
那么这几个关口没过之前

305
00:13:47,340 --> 00:13:49,779
你想一口气跑到那里非常的难啊

306
00:13:49,779 --> 00:13:52,629
因为每一个关口其实从做市商的角度来讲

307
00:13:52,629 --> 00:13:56,399
你的对手盘都是有足够的筹码去对接的

308
00:13:56,399 --> 00:13:57,919
那么期权上线之后啊

309
00:13:57,919 --> 00:13:59,539
今天还有一个现象是

310
00:13:59,539 --> 00:14:04,789
目前的散户已经有很多开始投机做空啊

311
00:14:04,789 --> 00:14:06,830
并非一边倒的追多

312
00:14:06,830 --> 00:14:09,828
他们使使用期权在投机做空

313
00:14:09,828 --> 00:14:12,328
所以散户出现了分歧

314
00:14:12,328 --> 00:14:15,869
也就意味着散户的力量爆发力是肯定不够的

315
00:14:15,869 --> 00:14:18,399
你不能让他一把推到380去对吧

316
00:14:18,399 --> 00:14:20,000
那明显不够啊

317
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:25,750
除非有神秘资金超大买家一把推上去

318
00:14:25,750 --> 00:14:28,309
嘿当然那个那就属于故事会了对吧

319
00:14:28,309 --> 00:14:30,309
那估计见不着啊

320
00:14:30,309 --> 00:14:31,960
非常难以见到啊

321
00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,919
好所以呢这是目前space x的期权的情况

322
00:14:34,919 --> 00:14:36,159
给大家讲的很清楚啊

323
00:14:36,159 --> 00:14:37,379
大家自己观察啊

324
00:14:37,379 --> 00:14:38,700
特别是观察明天收盘

325
00:14:38,700 --> 00:14:42,250
然后观察周四上午的价格走势

326
00:14:42,250 --> 00:14:44,490
就是在越临近呃

327
00:14:44,490 --> 00:14:47,149
周四的收盘大家越要关注这个走势哈

328
00:14:47,149 --> 00:14:48,889
这个因为挤压是有条件的

329
00:14:48,889 --> 00:14:50,089
太早了不行

330
00:14:50,089 --> 00:14:51,769
太晚了也不行啊

331
00:14:51,769 --> 00:14:52,828
太远了不行

332
00:14:52,828 --> 00:14:54,089
要离得足够近

333
00:14:54,089 --> 00:14:56,129
离那个价格才行

334
00:14:56,570 --> 00:14:57,350
好额

335
00:14:57,350 --> 00:15:00,009
那么SPACEX的对于市场的一些流动性影响呢

336
00:15:00,009 --> 00:15:02,850
我相信大家今天看到也比较明显

337
00:15:03,590 --> 00:15:08,970
比如曾经在它上市之前很火的一些这种

338
00:15:08,970 --> 00:15:12,649
叫做这个呃太空概念相关的股票对吧

339
00:15:12,649 --> 00:15:15,009
跌的都非常的多对吧

340
00:15:15,009 --> 00:15:16,210
成长股啊什么的

341
00:15:16,210 --> 00:15:17,649
跌的也都不少啊

342
00:15:17,649 --> 00:15:18,940
这是第一个

343
00:15:18,940 --> 00:15:23,220
然后呢还有一个从资金流向指标上来看

344
00:15:23,220 --> 00:15:25,820
我给大家看几张图表

345
00:15:28,559 --> 00:15:31,320
额这张图表可以看到

346
00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:34,519
如果剔除掉过去啊

347
00:15:34,519 --> 00:15:37,919
就是两个交易日散户对SPACEX的买入

348
00:15:37,919 --> 00:15:39,600
如果不算这个散户的买入啊

349
00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:43,009
那么散户对于个股的净买入量

350
00:15:43,009 --> 00:15:46,029
以三天的滚动平均值计算

351
00:15:46,029 --> 00:15:49,940
已经跌到了疫情以来的最低水平啊

352
00:15:49,940 --> 00:15:50,580
就相当于

353
00:15:50,580 --> 00:15:53,500
如果不是因为space x吸引了大量的资金去买

354
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:54,720
那啊对吧

355
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:56,779
那那那那这个情况不一样嘛

356
00:15:56,779 --> 00:16:00,299
所以很明显散户的很多的投机性的资金

357
00:16:00,299 --> 00:16:03,659
确实是被这个投机给吸引走了

358
00:16:03,659 --> 00:16:06,080
那其他的板块呢非常的低

359
00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:07,019
流入非常的低

360
00:16:07,019 --> 00:16:09,220
基本上呃玩的人不多啊

361
00:16:09,220 --> 00:16:13,639
好那么还有一个问题是散户现在的情况呢

362
00:16:13,639 --> 00:16:14,860
呃没有买

363
00:16:14,860 --> 00:16:15,759
对市场来讲

364
00:16:15,759 --> 00:16:17,480
大部分的板块呢也没动

365
00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,240
那么机构投资者买没买呢

366
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:21,960
我们说看一个市场宏观来说啊

367
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,200
那因为大家说会说指数没跌嘛对吧

368
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,559
那指数现在大盘也跌的也不多呀

369
00:16:26,559 --> 00:16:27,820
看上去道指还涨了呢

370
00:16:27,820 --> 00:16:29,220
标普也没没怎么跌呀

371
00:16:29,220 --> 00:16:31,639
那么机构买没买呢

372
00:16:32,578 --> 00:16:35,259
机构的买入也不行

373
00:16:35,259 --> 00:16:36,279
德意志银行

374
00:16:36,279 --> 00:16:38,399
这是上个星期的持仓的指标

375
00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:41,690
在上个星期也是往下再掉的啊

376
00:16:41,690 --> 00:16:42,970
他不是在往上在涨

377
00:16:42,970 --> 00:16:44,129
是在往下掉

378
00:16:44,129 --> 00:16:47,428
所以他也没买啊

379
00:16:47,428 --> 00:16:50,288
那么CCTA买没买呢

380
00:16:51,740 --> 00:16:53,840
给大家看一下CTA的位置啊

381
00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,889
CTA的买盘我们之前讲过

382
00:16:56,889 --> 00:16:59,269
它是极小极小的

383
00:16:59,269 --> 00:17:00,710
等于没有啊

384
00:17:00,710 --> 00:17:03,230
和它的下方的下跌的抛售比起来

385
00:17:03,230 --> 00:17:04,950
那抛要抛95%以上

386
00:17:04,950 --> 00:17:07,470
上方呢可能买个非常小的仓位

387
00:17:07,470 --> 00:17:10,150
所以CCTA也没买

388
00:17:10,150 --> 00:17:12,029
大家就觉得奇怪了诶

389
00:17:12,029 --> 00:17:13,029
散户也没买

390
00:17:13,029 --> 00:17:14,470
那机构也没买

391
00:17:14,470 --> 00:17:15,730
CCTA也不买

392
00:17:15,730 --> 00:17:17,638
那对冲基金也在降仓位

393
00:17:17,638 --> 00:17:18,598
那谁在买呢

394
00:17:18,598 --> 00:17:19,818
那为什么不跌呢

395
00:17:19,818 --> 00:17:25,028
不跌不跌是因为集中抛压没有被卖出来吗

396
00:17:25,028 --> 00:17:26,828
集中抛压没出现嘛

397
00:17:26,828 --> 00:17:28,148
现在的情况是什么

398
00:17:28,148 --> 00:17:30,630
就是我卖一点点哎

399
00:17:30,630 --> 00:17:32,250
我少买或者不买

400
00:17:32,250 --> 00:17:34,089
我看着我等着抬轿子

401
00:17:34,089 --> 00:17:36,210
我害怕我恐高对吧

402
00:17:36,210 --> 00:17:37,769
所以呢都是这么一个心态

403
00:17:37,769 --> 00:17:38,430
你不买

404
00:17:38,430 --> 00:17:39,299
我不买

405
00:17:39,299 --> 00:17:40,140
他也不买

406
00:17:40,140 --> 00:17:41,359
但是我也不卖

407
00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:42,500
就这么个状况

408
00:17:42,500 --> 00:17:43,900
所以大家看到的状况

409
00:17:43,900 --> 00:17:46,190
就变成了现在的这个样子啊

410
00:17:46,190 --> 00:17:48,309
所以这是最主要的原因

411
00:17:48,309 --> 00:17:50,250
那么抛压这个东西哪天来呢

412
00:17:50,250 --> 00:17:51,910
咱们不知道嘛对吧

413
00:17:51,910 --> 00:17:54,749
咱们这个这个抽签也抽不出来呀

414
00:17:54,749 --> 00:17:55,568
只能看呗

415
00:17:55,568 --> 00:17:56,388
看看等等呗

416
00:17:56,388 --> 00:17:59,388
但是至少现在是没什么人买啊

417
00:17:59,388 --> 00:18:02,509
这个是目前能看到的情况好

418
00:18:02,509 --> 00:18:03,309
那么这个呢

419
00:18:03,309 --> 00:18:06,170
就是目前一些短线的资金流上的一些变化

420
00:18:06,170 --> 00:18:09,890
还有就是有一个消息呢跟大家也稍微的说一下

421
00:18:09,890 --> 00:18:12,460
关于日元加息啊

422
00:18:13,019 --> 00:18:14,079
日元加息呢

423
00:18:14,079 --> 00:18:17,980
今天确实是按照预期加的加息啊

424
00:18:17,980 --> 00:18:21,599
呃大家会说这个对于日元的这个套利交易呃

425
00:18:21,599 --> 00:18:22,680
有没有什么影响

426
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:24,490
会不会影响美股的流动性

427
00:18:24,490 --> 00:18:26,130
其实关于这个观点

428
00:18:26,130 --> 00:18:27,490
我们在以前呃

429
00:18:27,490 --> 00:18:29,690
在日元多次讨论要加息的时候

430
00:18:29,690 --> 00:18:31,500
我们讲过一个逻辑

431
00:18:31,500 --> 00:18:34,000
之前有一年日元加息

432
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:35,660
它是一个突然的加息

433
00:18:35,660 --> 00:18:37,480
市场没有消化这个预期

434
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,449
所以当时对于市场整体的流动性来讲

435
00:18:40,449 --> 00:18:43,128
对于这个carry trade这边的平仓来讲

436
00:18:43,128 --> 00:18:46,009
很快导致了市场短时间的一个失血对吧

437
00:18:46,009 --> 00:18:49,210
美股还出现了一段时间的非常糟糕的走势

438
00:18:49,210 --> 00:18:50,630
但这一次的情况

439
00:18:50,630 --> 00:18:52,769
如果美股要走得糟糕

440
00:18:52,769 --> 00:18:56,099
也不是因为日元加息导致的

441
00:18:56,099 --> 00:18:59,480
因为市场已经充分地消化了这个预期了

442
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:01,599
早就和市场沟通好了

443
00:19:01,599 --> 00:19:04,339
大家该做准备的都做了准备了

444
00:19:04,339 --> 00:19:07,000
所以对市场整体的影响

445
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:10,069
不是那种狂风暴雨式的好吧

446
00:19:10,069 --> 00:19:10,950
所以就跟大家讲清楚

447
00:19:10,950 --> 00:19:13,210
我估计会有朋友会问哈

448
00:19:13,529 --> 00:19:17,299
好那么最后还有一个是关于半导体

449
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,519
半导体我今天给大家标了个位置出来啊

450
00:19:21,519 --> 00:19:23,839
大家看一下这个地方

451
00:19:23,839 --> 00:19:26,660
我给大家今天重新标注了一些东西

452
00:19:26,660 --> 00:19:30,259
554~577啊

453
00:19:30,259 --> 00:19:31,740
非常重要的一个位置

454
00:19:31,740 --> 00:19:33,019
上次有一个假突破

455
00:19:33,019 --> 00:19:33,700
我们讲过之后

456
00:19:33,700 --> 00:19:35,019
那天那天这个地方有个异常

457
00:19:35,019 --> 00:19:35,460
记得吗

458
00:19:35,460 --> 00:19:37,680
我们在周三的时候给大家讲的时候

459
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,440
这个异常出现之后的第二天

460
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,160
就是一个大幅拉升上去了

461
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,210
但是明显看到在最近的几天

462
00:19:44,210 --> 00:19:46,849
一直是在缩量上涨啊

463
00:19:46,849 --> 00:19:49,609
这是一个明显的量价背离啊

464
00:19:49,609 --> 00:19:50,909
而且打了新高

465
00:19:50,909 --> 00:19:53,568
虽然结构上看上去打了新高出来

466
00:19:53,568 --> 00:19:55,068
回到了上涨轨道

467
00:19:58,500 --> 00:20:01,339
走的是比较的悬的啊

468
00:20:01,339 --> 00:20:03,039
我只能说给大家说走得比较悬

469
00:20:03,039 --> 00:20:04,960
但是能不能走坏

470
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,920
大家看554~577

471
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,700
现在的价格是590

472
00:20:09,700 --> 00:20:10,079
一

473
00:20:10,079 --> 00:20:11,429
盘后还涨了一些

474
00:20:11,429 --> 00:20:12,808
没有跌破之前

475
00:20:12,808 --> 00:20:16,749
它仍旧维持昨天打新高之后的这个上行轨道

476
00:20:16,749 --> 00:20:17,710
往上走

477
00:20:17,710 --> 00:20:21,130
但如果这次跌破了554呃

478
00:20:21,130 --> 00:20:24,349
那这一次呢可能就会比较的糟糕一点好吧

479
00:20:24,349 --> 00:20:27,849
因为这个地方已经形成了重要的强支撑

480
00:20:27,849 --> 00:20:28,730
那当然了

481
00:20:28,730 --> 00:20:30,809
中间如果出现了任何其他的一些异常啊

482
00:20:30,809 --> 00:20:34,289
我在看盘过程中也会和大家及时的提醒一下

483
00:20:34,289 --> 00:20:34,690
好吧

484
00:20:34,690 --> 00:20:37,869
因为你这个记得关注半导体的朋友呢

485
00:20:37,869 --> 00:20:40,190
每天记得来看节目啊

486
00:20:40,190 --> 00:20:42,309
千万不要看一天不看一天啊

487
00:20:42,309 --> 00:20:45,230
然后呢这个拿着好几天前的信息

488
00:20:45,230 --> 00:20:47,009
然后对今天的行情呃

489
00:20:47,009 --> 00:20:49,390
那个可能你会错过很多重要的线索啊

490
00:20:49,390 --> 00:20:52,499
因为我这个很多都是每天我都在及时更新

491
00:20:52,499 --> 00:20:53,939
因为行现在的行情吧

492
00:20:53,939 --> 00:20:55,419
上跳上上下下

493
00:20:55,419 --> 00:20:56,618
左蹦右跳对吧

494
00:20:56,618 --> 00:21:00,680
这种情况猴氏嘛侯氏的话就多看一些细节啊

495
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:01,299
好

496
00:21:01,299 --> 00:21:02,839
这个呢就是今天带给大家的

497
00:21:02,839 --> 00:21:04,819
关于这个市场的一些东西的更新

498
00:21:04,819 --> 00:21:07,200
可能会大家觉得唉最近的内容是不是变少了啊

499
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:08,519
不是我的内容变少了

500
00:21:08,519 --> 00:21:11,559
是市场它的走势变少了啊

501
00:21:11,559 --> 00:21:13,000
市场的变化变少了

502
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:13,880
所以没有办法啊

503
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:14,759
市场少呢

504
00:21:14,759 --> 00:21:18,140
咱们就尽量少讲一些好额

505
00:21:18,140 --> 00:21:20,539
那这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

506
00:21:20,539 --> 00:21:24,109
这个现在这会儿呢也应该现在是美东

507
00:21:24,109 --> 00:21:25,069
差不多九点钟啊

508
00:21:25,069 --> 00:21:27,410
我们这个阿根廷的比赛应该开始了啊

509
00:21:27,410 --> 00:21:30,549
我这个做完节目呢也是上传完了以后

510
00:21:30,549 --> 00:21:32,029
就准备去看球了好吧

511
00:21:32,029 --> 00:21:34,309
所以呢大家也可以休息一下啊

512
00:21:34,309 --> 00:21:36,309
阿根廷对阿尔及利亚哈

513
00:21:36,309 --> 00:21:40,759
好非常感谢大家持续不断的点赞评论转发啊

514
00:21:40,759 --> 00:21:41,519
感谢大家哈

515
00:21:41,519 --> 00:21:43,519
这个随随手呢这个点点赞

516
00:21:43,519 --> 00:21:45,638
如果你觉得节目有帮助的话啊

517
00:21:45,638 --> 00:21:46,798
好那我们今天到这啊

518
00:21:46,798 --> 00:21:50,480
咱们就明天的同一时间不见不散

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