BV1KY5u6kEAy · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:03,259 --> 00:00:05,419 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 2 00:00:05,419 --> 00:00:06,639 接下来的五节课 3 00:00:06,639 --> 00:00:08,900 我们来讲楔形反转 4 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,839 首先我会介绍什么是楔形 5 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:19,579 当我说楔形这个词的时候 6 00:00:19,579 --> 00:00:21,260 我指的是一种结构 7 00:00:21,260 --> 00:00:25,089 它在一个方向上有三次或更多次推动反转 8 00:00:25,089 --> 00:00:27,129 总共是五段到三段 9 00:00:27,129 --> 00:00:28,170 朝一个方向 10 00:00:28,170 --> 00:00:29,570 两段朝另一个方向 11 00:00:29,570 --> 00:00:32,289 并且它是向上或向下倾斜的 12 00:00:32,289 --> 00:00:34,270 楔形通常是收敛的 13 00:00:34,270 --> 00:00:37,530 所以楔形其实就是一个向上或向下倾斜的 14 00:00:37,530 --> 00:00:38,689 收敛三角形 15 00:00:38,689 --> 00:00:43,460 有时楔形中还有第四或第五次推动 16 00:00:45,140 --> 00:00:48,320 划线的目的是为了突出市场正在做什么 17 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,549 可以帮助我们更好地思考如何交易 18 00:00:51,549 --> 00:00:53,890 而趋势线并不一定完美 19 00:00:53,890 --> 00:00:55,469 大多数情况下 20 00:00:55,469 --> 00:00:56,750 趋势线都不完 21 00:00:56,750 --> 00:00:58,320 两点确定一条直线 22 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,159 而且你要观察在第三个点会发生什么 23 00:01:01,159 --> 00:01:03,380 当新的高低点形成时 24 00:01:03,380 --> 00:01:05,430 我会改变趋势线 25 00:01:05,430 --> 00:01:08,950 所以有时前期的点会超出趋势线 26 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:12,519 或者没有碰到趋势线 27 00:01:12,519 --> 00:01:14,700 所以到底用哪几个点来划线 28 00:01:14,700 --> 00:01:16,829 往往会有不同的选择 29 00:01:16,829 --> 00:01:18,109 通常来说 30 00:01:18,109 --> 00:01:21,769 如果从两条线之间选择一条线被超出 31 00:01:21,769 --> 00:01:23,230 另一条线没碰到 32 00:01:23,230 --> 00:01:26,030 我会选择被超出的那条线 33 00:01:29,939 --> 00:01:33,579 这是我们最近在讲的反转结构的列表 34 00:01:36,299 --> 00:01:38,099 像所有的反转结构一样 35 00:01:39,340 --> 00:01:42,540 楔形反转也多少涉及到震荡区间 36 00:01:43,099 --> 00:01:45,780 比如末端骑行或者楔形之后 37 00:01:45,780 --> 00:01:47,379 经常会有大反转的结构 38 00:01:48,980 --> 00:01:51,540 那也是震荡区间的一部分 39 00:01:53,420 --> 00:01:56,140 我要么把楔形看作趋势中的骑行 40 00:01:56,140 --> 00:01:58,780 要么看作反转的一部分 41 00:02:02,500 --> 00:02:05,879 例如左边是非常强势的下降趋势 42 00:02:05,879 --> 00:02:09,030 这里是这里再次出现阳线反弹 43 00:02:09,030 --> 00:02:10,750 这里是向上的第三推 44 00:02:10,750 --> 00:02:12,860 这是一个楔形雄奇 45 00:02:13,259 --> 00:02:16,759 这个雄奇在下降趋势结束之前就开始形成了 46 00:02:16,759 --> 00:02:18,460 注第一推之后 47 00:02:18,460 --> 00:02:21,039 又市场从趋势过渡到震荡区间 48 00:02:21,039 --> 00:02:23,099 或过渡到相反的趋势时 49 00:02:23,099 --> 00:02:24,939 经常会出现这样的情况 50 00:02:24,939 --> 00:02:27,500 注复习16C 51 00:02:32,099 --> 00:02:33,539 三推楔形雄起 52 00:02:33,539 --> 00:02:35,219 雄奇就是反弹的意思 53 00:02:35,219 --> 00:02:38,419 意味着下降趋势很可能会恢复 54 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:49,300 熊奇是一个小的震荡区间或小的上涨波段 55 00:02:49,300 --> 00:02:51,520 如果熊奇反而被向上突破 56 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,699 那么市场也许已经反转成为上涨趋势 57 00:02:57,139 --> 00:02:59,900 楔形顶尝试反转上涨趋势 58 00:03:01,259 --> 00:03:03,400 上涨趋势的三次向上推动 59 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:09,590 123趋势线和趋势通道线正在收敛越来越近 60 00:03:09,590 --> 00:03:11,069 这是一个收敛通道 61 00:03:11,069 --> 00:03:13,180 多头加速突破通道失败 62 00:03:13,180 --> 00:03:14,900 现在市场正在反转 63 00:03:14,900 --> 00:03:17,120 所以楔形顶是大反转的结构 64 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,219 楔形雄奇是小反弹 65 00:03:19,219 --> 00:03:21,219 注都是三推上涨 66 00:03:21,219 --> 00:03:24,419 但是左边背景和结构大小不同 67 00:03:26,099 --> 00:03:29,000 所有的上涨通道在更高时间周期上 68 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:31,180 几乎都是熊奇 69 00:03:33,319 --> 00:03:35,580 上涨通道75%的概率 70 00:03:35,580 --> 00:03:37,419 会被向下或横向的突破 71 00:03:37,419 --> 00:03:40,280 然后市场进入震荡区间 72 00:03:44,919 --> 00:03:49,439 所以上涨通道就是一个最终会变成震荡区间 73 00:03:49,439 --> 00:03:51,080 的上涨波段 74 00:03:55,939 --> 00:04:00,020 楔形其实就是一个向上或向下倾斜的三角形 75 00:04:03,879 --> 00:04:06,490 有很多种化楔形的方法 76 00:04:06,610 --> 00:04:08,930 而且很多楔形是嵌套的 77 00:04:08,930 --> 00:04:10,770 大楔形的内部有小楔形 78 00:04:10,770 --> 00:04:14,088 上涨回调再次上涨回调 79 00:04:14,088 --> 00:04:16,689 第三次上涨之后反转下跌 80 00:04:16,689 --> 00:04:20,029 一些电脑程序会这样看楔形一二 81 00:04:20,029 --> 00:04:23,490 一些交易者和程序会看更大的楔形一 82 00:04:23,490 --> 00:04:24,350 然后二 83 00:04:24,350 --> 00:04:28,370 然后三怎么画并不重要 84 00:04:28,370 --> 00:04:30,209 重要的是理解市场的市场 85 00:04:30,209 --> 00:04:31,769 不断尝试向上突破 86 00:04:31,769 --> 00:04:32,939 但都失败了 87 00:04:32,939 --> 00:04:36,319 注每次刚刚创新高就跌回来 88 00:04:36,319 --> 00:04:38,420 上涨趋势很弱 89 00:04:39,740 --> 00:04:41,660 这里的上涨趋势很强 90 00:04:41,660 --> 00:04:43,040 然后深度回调 91 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:44,980 空头趋势线没有划出 92 00:04:44,980 --> 00:04:48,379 交易者预期上涨趋势的恢复会失败 93 00:04:48,379 --> 00:04:53,019 在这个案例中是高点抬高的楔形大反转结构 94 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,839 而这里向下的三推是上涨趋势中的回调 95 00:05:00,019 --> 00:05:03,339 这是一个楔形牛企注向下三推 96 00:05:03,339 --> 00:05:05,319 预期市场会继续上涨 97 00:05:05,319 --> 00:05:09,230 而这里预期市场会反转下跌 98 00:05:10,199 --> 00:05:13,720 这里是大上涨趋势中的小下降趋势 99 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:23,899 向上倾斜的三角形 100 00:05:23,899 --> 00:05:27,439 1233它也有震荡间 101 00:05:27,439 --> 00:05:28,279 它也是三角形 102 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:29,639 它是向上倾斜的 103 00:05:29,639 --> 00:05:31,500 所以我用楔形这个词 104 00:05:31,500 --> 00:05:33,199 通道先收敛越来越 105 00:05:33,199 --> 00:05:34,899 你可以说它是上涨通道 106 00:05:34,899 --> 00:05:36,480 也可以说它是上涨的 107 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:41,160 楔形是潜在的顶部楔形上涨通道通常是雄奇 108 00:05:42,060 --> 00:05:44,120 大概率会被向下跌破 109 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:45,920 这里有很多重叠 110 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,019 刚突破这个高点就跌回来了 111 00:05:49,019 --> 00:05:51,100 突破这个高点又跌回来 112 00:05:51,100 --> 00:05:53,180 突破这个高点也很快回落 113 00:05:53,180 --> 00:05:56,178 如果一个楔形的上涨通道中有很多重叠 114 00:05:56,178 --> 00:05:58,858 他被跌破的概率就更高 115 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,668 多头尝试加速突破通道上沿 116 00:06:05,668 --> 00:06:09,528 75%的概率会在五根K线之内失败 117 00:06:09,528 --> 00:06:11,548 然后价格会反转下跌 118 00:06:11,548 --> 00:06:13,449 测试这里道道线太近了 119 00:06:13,449 --> 00:06:14,879 所以没有太多意义 120 00:06:14,879 --> 00:06:16,560 从整体的背景来看 121 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:20,160 空投的目标是去测试通道的起点 122 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,480 甚至完全反转成下降趋势 123 00:06:26,980 --> 00:06:29,000 这是一根反转的十字星 124 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:30,579 收盘在终点之下 125 00:06:30,579 --> 00:06:32,120 尽管只是十字星 126 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,860 但是向上突破失败又跌幅是合理的 127 00:06:34,860 --> 00:06:36,029 做空机会 128 00:06:36,939 --> 00:06:39,778 空投会在那根K线的低点下方挂突破 129 00:06:39,778 --> 00:06:42,079 卖单订单会在这里成交 130 00:06:42,079 --> 00:06:43,560 对于空投来说 131 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,180 这根大阴线是非常好的入场K线 132 00:06:46,180 --> 00:06:48,319 这根阴线根甚至比非常大 133 00:06:48,319 --> 00:06:49,740 而且收在最低 134 00:06:49,740 --> 00:06:51,959 市场还会继续下跌 135 00:06:56,139 --> 00:06:58,740 连续的阴线收在最低 136 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:00,879 强势的空头突破 137 00:07:00,879 --> 00:07:03,579 至少会跌到某个mm目标位 138 00:07:03,579 --> 00:07:07,180 楔形顶之后的目标是一个下跌波段 139 00:07:07,379 --> 00:07:10,740 两段10K是合理的最低目标 140 00:07:10,740 --> 00:07:12,180 可能这是第一段 141 00:07:12,180 --> 00:07:13,420 然后小反弹 142 00:07:13,420 --> 00:07:16,819 第二段或者整个下跌是第一段 143 00:07:18,439 --> 00:07:20,699 然后市场会有更大的反弹 144 00:07:20,699 --> 00:07:23,439 最后是更大的第二段下跌 145 00:07:26,740 --> 00:07:29,220 刚才我说有不同的方法来画楔形 146 00:07:30,420 --> 00:07:33,579 一些电脑会认为这个高点是第一推 147 00:07:33,990 --> 00:07:35,610 然后这是第二推 148 00:07:35,610 --> 00:07:39,050 一些会说这是1234推 149 00:07:39,050 --> 00:07:42,009 这个楔形顶有四次向上的推动 150 00:07:42,009 --> 00:07:45,170 或者看作这是大的先锤 151 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:47,980 第二推在这里 152 00:07:47,980 --> 00:07:49,120 然后回调 153 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,939 第三推可以细分成更小的楔形 154 00:07:51,939 --> 00:07:53,879 所以这是嵌套式楔形 155 00:07:53,879 --> 00:07:55,680 大楔形的内部有小楔形 156 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,360 导致反转的概率就更高了 157 00:08:02,639 --> 00:08:04,420 楔形顶是一种高潮 158 00:08:04,420 --> 00:08:06,259 和所有高潮一样 159 00:08:06,259 --> 00:08:09,240 通常至少会回调或者上涨 160 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:10,839 至少会停滞 161 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:13,579 高潮可以持续很长时间 162 00:08:13,579 --> 00:08:15,300 这里有一系列阳线 163 00:08:15,300 --> 00:08:17,560 五根阳线抢购高潮 164 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,500 这里有一系列强势的阳线 165 00:08:21,629 --> 00:08:24,990 楔形内部的上涨波段往往很强势 166 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,879 足以成为买收盘的上涨趋势 167 00:08:27,879 --> 00:08:28,740 交易者不息 168 00:08:28,740 --> 00:08:29,319 收盘买入 169 00:08:29,319 --> 00:08:30,279 只要是阳线收益 170 00:08:30,279 --> 00:08:31,939 至少还会在市价买入 171 00:08:31,939 --> 00:08:33,100 这里也是一样 172 00:08:33,100 --> 00:08:35,379 这是一个买收盘的上涨趋势 173 00:08:35,379 --> 00:08:37,200 尽管这里的K线很小 174 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,259 但都是买收盘的上涨趋势 175 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,399 到了这里仔细观察 176 00:08:46,399 --> 00:08:48,200 这里只下跌了两根K线 177 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,220 这里一根这里一根 178 00:08:50,220 --> 00:08:54,379 这里两根这个大楔形的一部分 179 00:08:54,379 --> 00:08:56,519 几乎没有什么回调 180 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:00,919 这里空投是赚不到钱的 181 00:09:00,919 --> 00:09:02,039 在这里做空的空投 182 00:09:02,039 --> 00:09:04,679 原文说的是逼空行情 183 00:09:06,259 --> 00:09:08,539 因为多头一直在逢低买入 184 00:09:08,539 --> 00:09:10,460 买盘比卖盘更多 185 00:09:10,460 --> 00:09:12,539 这也是一种抢购高潮 186 00:09:12,539 --> 00:09:14,580 且不可持续 187 00:09:15,860 --> 00:09:18,120 所以三推楔形结构的上涨 188 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:21,659 通常是由一系列抢购高潮组成的 189 00:09:28,940 --> 00:09:30,539 没有什么回调的上涨趋势 190 00:09:30,539 --> 00:09:32,320 这是多头害怕错过造成的 191 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:36,340 formal趋势注多头某段买入的原因是动害怕错过 192 00:09:36,340 --> 00:09:37,909 而不是基本面 193 00:09:38,279 --> 00:09:40,720 这里显然已经不是一个便宜的价格 194 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:42,799 他们买入的原因是市场处于上涨 195 00:09:42,799 --> 00:09:44,840 并且他们认为还会继续上涨 196 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:46,799 因为回调很小 197 00:09:49,740 --> 00:09:53,620 疯牛交易害怕错过的交易非常的拥挤 198 00:09:53,620 --> 00:09:55,080 每个人都在买入 199 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,419 一旦开始止盈下跌 200 00:09:57,419 --> 00:09:59,679 所有人都会争先恐后地离场 201 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:01,210 仅仅几根阴线 202 00:10:01,210 --> 00:10:03,850 所有在过去十根K线买入的多头 203 00:10:03,850 --> 00:10:06,370 现在都是亏损的 204 00:10:07,070 --> 00:10:09,549 他们赶紧止损离场 205 00:10:10,370 --> 00:10:11,950 在拥挤的交易中 206 00:10:11,950 --> 00:10:13,450 这种情况经常发生 207 00:10:13,450 --> 00:10:15,500 当太多交易者都在买入时 208 00:10:15,500 --> 00:10:17,139 他们会迅速离场 209 00:10:17,139 --> 00:10:19,519 他们知道他们是基于动能在买入 210 00:10:19,519 --> 00:10:21,000 一旦动能衰竭 211 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,419 每个人都会迅速离场 212 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,080 下降趋势第一推 213 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:32,019 第二推 214 00:10:32,019 --> 00:10:33,349 第三推 215 00:10:33,349 --> 00:10:36,708 你可以说这里最上面是这样的一个楔形底 216 00:10:36,708 --> 00:10:40,749 123这个底部的反转没有成功 217 00:10:40,749 --> 00:10:42,000 只是反弹 218 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:43,700 这里是新的楔形底 219 00:10:43,700 --> 00:10:46,500 下降趋势中总是有很多楔形底 220 00:10:46,500 --> 00:10:49,879 上涨趋势中总是有很多楔形底 221 00:10:50,230 --> 00:10:51,710 这是一个楔形底 222 00:10:51,710 --> 00:10:53,370 因为他是下降通道 223 00:10:53,370 --> 00:10:56,230 而且通道线正在收敛 224 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:02,019 K线之间有重叠 225 00:11:02,019 --> 00:11:03,779 如果你想要楔形底反转 226 00:11:03,779 --> 00:11:05,220 需要看到重叠 227 00:11:05,220 --> 00:11:08,460 你希望从第二段的反弹超过第一段的低点 228 00:11:08,460 --> 00:11:12,299 注及重叠可以增加反转成功的概率 229 00:11:18,860 --> 00:11:20,419 你可以画一条通道线 230 00:11:20,419 --> 00:11:23,519 反弹反弹连接低点划线 231 00:11:23,519 --> 00:11:25,379 空头尝试继续下跌 232 00:11:25,379 --> 00:11:29,370 但反转上涨加速跌破通道下沿失败 233 00:11:29,370 --> 00:11:32,330 对多头而言是好消息 234 00:11:34,159 --> 00:11:37,519 强势的反转阳线也有一点点小双底的结构 235 00:11:37,519 --> 00:11:39,059 这根K线先下跌 236 00:11:39,059 --> 00:11:39,940 然后上涨 237 00:11:39,940 --> 00:11:41,849 这里下跌再上涨 238 00:11:41,849 --> 00:11:43,068 对多头有利 239 00:11:43,068 --> 00:11:45,668 多头会在那个阳线的高点上方买入 240 00:11:45,668 --> 00:11:49,528 或者在这个回调K线的高点上方买入 241 00:11:52,059 --> 00:11:55,700 反转的目标是大约两段10K 242 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:58,299 可能远远不止 243 00:11:58,299 --> 00:11:59,840 如果成功的大反转 244 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:01,960 第一段上涨低于两回10K 245 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,289 第二段或者是复合型的第一段上涨回调 246 00:12:05,289 --> 00:12:06,730 第二段 247 00:12:08,068 --> 00:12:11,989 楔形反转的另一个目标是测试通道的起点 248 00:12:12,850 --> 00:12:17,909 这里或这里最终目标位都达到了 249 00:12:17,909 --> 00:12:21,409 每当你看到这样的抛售高潮被反转 250 00:12:22,210 --> 00:12:25,129 略微超过那个高点是一个合理的目标 251 00:12:26,330 --> 00:12:28,090 在这里达到了 252 00:12:36,659 --> 00:12:39,440 每个市场的目的是找到一个公平价格 253 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,820 能够让交易最大化 254 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:45,059 一个多头愿意买入 255 00:12:45,059 --> 00:12:47,600 空头愿意卖出的价格 256 00:12:48,259 --> 00:12:51,099 那个公平的价格在不断变化 257 00:12:51,099 --> 00:12:53,658 因为不断有新的信息进入市场 258 00:12:53,658 --> 00:12:55,938 公平价格总是在不断变化 259 00:12:55,938 --> 00:12:58,818 市场通常需要涨过头或跌过头 260 00:12:58,818 --> 00:13:02,009 才知道到底什么价格才是合理的 261 00:13:02,250 --> 00:13:04,350 这就是楔形底的形成原因 262 00:13:04,350 --> 00:13:06,129 市场不断向下探测 263 00:13:06,129 --> 00:13:08,850 然后在某个时刻发现跌的太多了 264 00:13:08,850 --> 00:13:11,090 已经低于公平价格 265 00:13:11,649 --> 00:13:13,048 所以反转上涨 266 00:13:13,048 --> 00:13:15,969 并开始往相反的方向探寻 267 00:13:19,460 --> 00:13:20,940 三次向下推动 268 00:13:20,940 --> 00:13:23,000 每段推动变得越来越小 269 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:24,539 而且可以看到重叠 270 00:13:24,539 --> 00:13:27,970 第二段的反弹超过了第一段的低点 271 00:13:28,330 --> 00:13:30,570 愿意在低位追空的人越来越少 272 00:13:32,049 --> 00:13:33,509 买压开始出现 273 00:13:33,509 --> 00:13:36,990 他们看到在这个低点挂单买入的多头可以赚钱 274 00:13:36,990 --> 00:13:39,529 他们假设在这个低点挂单买入的多头 275 00:13:39,529 --> 00:13:40,679 也可以赚到钱 276 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:42,519 愿意做空的人越来越少 277 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:47,799 稍微下跌几根K线就有反转上涨的尝试 278 00:13:52,759 --> 00:13:54,960 空头知道现在价格太低了 279 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:56,649 不适合做空 280 00:13:56,970 --> 00:13:59,090 他们只愿意在更高的价格卖出 281 00:13:59,090 --> 00:14:01,610 多头认为市场已经跌得太低 282 00:14:01,850 --> 00:14:03,470 现在是特价优惠 283 00:14:03,470 --> 00:14:04,570 所以开始买入 284 00:14:04,570 --> 00:14:07,549 一开始多头逢低挂限价单买入 285 00:14:07,549 --> 00:14:10,950 然后他们因为他们确信市场追涨已经跌过 286 00:14:10,950 --> 00:14:12,429 更激进 287 00:14:13,100 --> 00:14:15,580 多空双方都在买入局势 288 00:14:15,580 --> 00:14:17,659 造成空投止盈离场 289 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:22,080 一旦开始反转 290 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:23,779 通常会有几段上涨 291 00:14:23,779 --> 00:14:26,159 因为存在被困住的多头和空头 292 00:14:26,159 --> 00:14:29,339 没来得及买入的多头被困在交易的外面 293 00:14:29,339 --> 00:14:31,538 他们希望市场回调好 294 00:14:31,538 --> 00:14:33,600 让他们这会造成第二段上涨 295 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,919 还有那些没有及时离场的空头被困在交易 296 00:14:36,919 --> 00:14:38,679 当他们看到市场这样上涨 297 00:14:38,679 --> 00:14:40,720 他们知道价格还会更高 298 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:42,610 一旦有任何的回调 299 00:14:42,610 --> 00:14:44,370 这些空投就会买入 300 00:14:44,370 --> 00:14:45,570 少亏一些离场 301 00:14:46,649 --> 00:14:50,610 所以被困在里面的空投也在寻找买入机会 302 00:14:52,019 --> 00:14:54,399 而被困在外面的多头想要入场 303 00:14:54,399 --> 00:14:55,519 一旦有回调 304 00:14:55,519 --> 00:14:56,720 他们就买入 305 00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:59,139 所以会有第二段上涨 306 00:15:06,100 --> 00:15:08,379 这里的下跌并不算特别强势 307 00:15:09,419 --> 00:15:10,200 大阴线 308 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:11,179 小阴线 309 00:15:11,179 --> 00:15:12,320 两根阴线 310 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,000 阳线阴线 311 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,480 这个下跌波段看上去会转变成震荡区间 312 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:20,360 K线之间的引线有一些重叠 313 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:21,759 所以是实体缺口 314 00:15:21,759 --> 00:15:22,840 这里也有实体缺口 315 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,399 这也是一个没什么反弹的下降趋势 316 00:15:25,399 --> 00:15:28,679 造成下降趋势的一个因素是多头 317 00:15:28,679 --> 00:15:31,860 多头买入之后发现自己买的太早了 318 00:15:31,860 --> 00:15:33,220 所以只能先摸头 319 00:15:33,220 --> 00:15:34,460 被迫平仓离场 320 00:15:34,460 --> 00:15:37,068 这种情况在这里反复发生 321 00:15:37,068 --> 00:15:38,149 窄通道 322 00:15:38,149 --> 00:15:40,129 没什么反弹的下降趋势 323 00:15:40,129 --> 00:15:41,589 这是抛售高潮 324 00:15:41,589 --> 00:15:44,428 这里有一系列小的抛售高潮 325 00:15:44,860 --> 00:15:48,620 楔形底的内部通常包含不同类型的抛售高潮 326 00:15:48,620 --> 00:15:50,700 连续五根阴线下跌 327 00:15:50,700 --> 00:15:53,179 卖收盘的下降趋势 328 00:15:58,519 --> 00:16:01,820 像这样的下跌有时可能会持续很久 329 00:16:01,820 --> 00:16:03,779 并且造成痛苦的交易 330 00:16:03,779 --> 00:16:07,279 多头认为这是一个大的宽下降通道比较弱 331 00:16:07,279 --> 00:16:09,340 所以他们不断的逢低买入 332 00:16:09,340 --> 00:16:11,600 然而他们越买越亏 333 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,279 于是开始感到痛苦 334 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,419 痛苦的交易指的是低概率事件 335 00:16:20,419 --> 00:16:23,850 而且持续很长时间注低概率 336 00:16:23,850 --> 00:16:25,730 让大部分交易者看着屏幕 337 00:16:25,730 --> 00:16:27,909 想到左边趋势的跟随很一般 338 00:16:27,909 --> 00:16:30,289 这里怎么会突然这么强 339 00:16:30,570 --> 00:16:32,450 多头看到这里的强势反弹 340 00:16:32,450 --> 00:16:35,049 他们开始期待会有大反转的机会 341 00:16:35,049 --> 00:16:37,889 然而市场却不断下跌 342 00:16:38,340 --> 00:16:41,779 所以那些买入的多头正在痛苦煎熬中 343 00:16:41,779 --> 00:16:44,220 痛苦交易通常至少有两段 344 00:16:44,220 --> 00:16:46,980 一反弹二 345 00:16:49,659 --> 00:16:51,320 卖收盘的下降趋势 346 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,379 这是formal交易害怕错过空投 347 00:16:54,379 --> 00:16:57,389 在这里卖空不是因为价格太贵了 348 00:16:57,389 --> 00:16:59,809 而是因为市场处于下降趋势 349 00:16:59,809 --> 00:17:02,490 空头相信至少会有小的第二段下跌 350 00:17:02,490 --> 00:17:05,839 所以他们不是因为基本面不好而卖出 351 00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:08,519 不是因为价格太贵而卖出 352 00:17:08,519 --> 00:17:10,480 空投是因为动能而卖出 353 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,480 一旦动能衰竭 354 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:14,460 很多空头就被套住 355 00:17:14,460 --> 00:17:16,000 然后突然放弃 356 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:17,720 这是一笔拥挤的交易 357 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:19,079 太多交易者做空 358 00:17:19,079 --> 00:17:21,588 一旦下跌动能消失 359 00:17:21,989 --> 00:17:25,028 空投会争先恐后的惊慌离场 360 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:32,519 拥挤的交易通常会导致剧烈的反转 361 00:17:32,769 --> 00:17:34,130 空投放弃了 362 00:17:34,130 --> 00:17:38,569 看你看到这样的抛售高潮交易通常是拥挤的 363 00:17:38,569 --> 00:17:40,809 太多人做空 364 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:50,109 楔形就是一个向上或向下倾斜的三角形 365 00:17:50,558 --> 00:17:53,759 三角形有三次向上推动或向下推动 366 00:17:53,759 --> 00:17:55,278 一旦如果倾三次向上推 367 00:17:55,278 --> 00:17:55,999 就是楔形 368 00:17:55,999 --> 00:17:57,598 这里如果水平回调 369 00:17:57,598 --> 00:17:58,278 就只是三角形 370 00:17:58,278 --> 00:18:00,099 这有可能是一个楔形顶三 371 00:18:00,449 --> 00:18:02,249 如果线条再收敛 372 00:18:02,249 --> 00:18:03,528 就像这里一样 373 00:18:03,528 --> 00:18:06,409 反转的概率就会更高一些 374 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,920 划线的时候总是有不同的选择 375 00:18:12,279 --> 00:18:13,519 我选择这样画 376 00:18:13,519 --> 00:18:17,299 一些电脑程序会说这是123 377 00:18:20,839 --> 00:18:24,779 这里有三次向上推动123 378 00:18:24,779 --> 00:18:26,630 这是一个三角形 379 00:18:26,630 --> 00:18:28,230 因为它基本上是水平 380 00:18:28,230 --> 00:18:30,829 交易者就会直接说三是反转结构 381 00:18:30,829 --> 00:18:32,109 而不用水平 382 00:18:32,109 --> 00:18:34,009 就不存在趋势反转 383 00:18:34,009 --> 00:18:34,990 下降趋势 384 00:18:34,990 --> 00:18:37,630 多头突破低点抬高的大反转 385 00:18:37,630 --> 00:18:40,670 然后再试低点抬高的双底大反转结构 386 00:18:40,670 --> 00:18:41,829 交易者买一点做 387 00:18:41,829 --> 00:18:42,990 先降低压住弹 388 00:18:42,990 --> 00:18:44,829 你也可以说其实就是肩头肩底 389 00:18:44,829 --> 00:18:46,089 左肩头 390 00:18:46,089 --> 00:18:47,710 然后右肩 391 00:18:48,029 --> 00:18:50,990 其中右肩是一个双底的结构 392 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,220 这里有个小通道 393 00:18:56,220 --> 00:18:57,720 可以画两条趋势线 394 00:18:57,720 --> 00:18:59,269 如果他们向上倾斜 395 00:18:59,269 --> 00:19:01,289 那就是楔形向上的楔形 396 00:19:01,289 --> 00:19:04,349 楔形顶可以是下降趋势中的雄奇 397 00:19:04,349 --> 00:19:07,549 或者是上涨趋势的顶部结构 398 00:19:07,829 --> 00:19:10,029 这里有一个楔形底 399 00:19:10,029 --> 00:19:11,789 尽管看上去不太像 400 00:19:11,789 --> 00:19:14,049 但它却有三次向下的推动 401 00:19:14,049 --> 00:19:18,220 一反弹二这个小双底就是前两次下跌 402 00:19:18,220 --> 00:19:20,279 这里是第三次 403 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:24,099 再次强调 404 00:19:24,099 --> 00:19:27,279 不同的程序会选择不同的高低点来划线 405 00:19:27,279 --> 00:19:29,779 一些电脑会说楔形从这里开始 406 00:19:29,779 --> 00:19:34,329 一些会用粉色线认为楔行从这里开始 407 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,480 一些这里有一个楔形顶 408 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,079 123尝试反转 409 00:19:40,079 --> 00:19:40,960 下跌失败 410 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:42,960 继续向上突破 411 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,660 向上突破楔形的尝试也失败了 412 00:19:45,660 --> 00:19:47,359 然后反转 413 00:19:49,059 --> 00:19:51,039 这个楔形底也可以这样看 414 00:19:51,039 --> 00:19:53,579 123 415 00:19:58,599 --> 00:20:00,839 当你看到一个楔形假设 416 00:20:00,839 --> 00:20:04,119 有75%的概率会反向突破 417 00:20:05,980 --> 00:20:07,099 楔形雄起 418 00:20:07,099 --> 00:20:09,660 小的三推上涨预期会反转下跌 419 00:20:09,660 --> 00:20:13,220 楔形顶大的三推上涨预期会楔形底下跌 420 00:20:13,220 --> 00:20:14,930 一个向下倾斜的楔形 421 00:20:15,029 --> 00:20:17,589 假设会向上突破 422 00:20:21,299 --> 00:20:22,519 上涨些行 423 00:20:22,519 --> 00:20:24,079 75%的概率 424 00:20:24,079 --> 00:20:27,059 会以横盘或下跌的方式突破 425 00:20:30,779 --> 00:20:32,859 每当我看到一个上涨趋势 426 00:20:32,859 --> 00:20:34,359 无论是不是楔形 427 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,449 如果它处于这样的通道之中 428 00:20:36,449 --> 00:20:38,048 我都把它看作是雄奇 429 00:20:38,048 --> 00:20:40,368 因为我知道大概率会有空头突破 430 00:20:40,368 --> 00:20:42,028 要么进入下降趋势 431 00:20:42,028 --> 00:20:44,368 要么变成震荡区间 432 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:48,900 下降楔形 433 00:20:48,900 --> 00:20:53,480 下降通道75%的概率会向上突破 434 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,279 三角形50%的概率向下突破 435 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,440 50%的概率向上突破 436 00:21:01,599 --> 00:21:04,599 第一次突破有50%的概率会失败 437 00:21:04,599 --> 00:21:07,799 反转三角形先尝试向下突破 438 00:21:07,799 --> 00:21:10,160 但是反转上涨了 439 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,960 这个算是楔形顶还是三角形 440 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:18,900 高点二略微比一高 441 00:21:18,900 --> 00:21:21,199 高点三又略微比二高 442 00:21:21,199 --> 00:21:23,078 有三次向上的推动 443 00:21:23,078 --> 00:21:26,980 然而这个结构主要是横向的三角形 444 00:21:26,980 --> 00:21:29,500 到底看作楔形还是三角形 445 00:21:29,500 --> 00:21:30,380 不重要 446 00:21:30,380 --> 00:21:31,980 形成的原理是一样的 447 00:21:31,980 --> 00:21:35,099 宽通道中的三次推动通道是收敛的 448 00:21:35,099 --> 00:21:37,299 如果是楔形的话 449 00:21:38,009 --> 00:21:40,769 通常75%的概率会向下跌 450 00:21:40,769 --> 00:21:44,180 破它越水平就越像一个三角形 451 00:21:44,180 --> 00:21:46,099 50%的概率下跌 452 00:21:46,099 --> 00:21:48,859 50%的概率上涨 453 00:21:53,279 --> 00:21:54,980 多头没能继续上涨 454 00:21:54,980 --> 00:21:56,880 出现了一个很好的做空信号 455 00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,588 K这根阴线的下方一个tick是合理的 456 00:22:00,588 --> 00:22:02,028 开仓做空压住多头 457 00:22:02,028 --> 00:22:06,189 加速突破三角形楔形失败反转 458 00:22:09,859 --> 00:22:12,299 正在跌破通道的下沿 459 00:22:12,579 --> 00:22:14,680 这是一次失败的突破吗 460 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,220 反转上涨反确实失败了 461 00:22:17,220 --> 00:22:20,089 然而这里有连续五根阴线 462 00:22:20,089 --> 00:22:23,150 很可能有空头会在上方逢高卖出 463 00:22:23,150 --> 00:22:26,170 导致至少有小的第二段下跌 464 00:22:29,140 --> 00:22:32,839 所以空头把这里看作是第二段下跌的开始 465 00:22:33,079 --> 00:22:35,660 他们把这根阳线看作雄起反弹 466 00:22:35,660 --> 00:22:39,240 他们把这一整段看作雄奇大阳线之后是阴线 467 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:43,460 糟糕的跟随交易者会在那根K线的低点下方 468 00:22:43,460 --> 00:22:46,380 卖订单会在这根K线上成交 469 00:22:47,420 --> 00:22:49,000 刚才跌破楔形下沿 470 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:50,440 真的失败了吗 471 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:52,980 我认为这更像是一次反弹 472 00:22:52,980 --> 00:22:54,519 而不是失败的突破 473 00:22:54,519 --> 00:22:58,259 没有涨回前期三角形楔形的高点 474 00:22:58,259 --> 00:23:02,339 这更像是连续五根阴线下跌之后的反弹 475 00:23:09,019 --> 00:23:10,380 楔形很常见 476 00:23:10,380 --> 00:23:12,200 所有的K线图上都有 477 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,700 但他们很少是完美的 478 00:23:14,900 --> 00:23:19,420 事实上他们中的大多数看起来根本不像楔形 479 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:22,880 这里有一个楔形牛旗 480 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,569 可以在这里画一条线 481 00:23:24,569 --> 00:23:26,250 可以在这里画一条线 482 00:23:26,250 --> 00:23:27,450 也许你想说 483 00:23:27,450 --> 00:23:28,970 这里只有两次下乡 484 00:23:28,970 --> 00:23:30,369 不对一二 485 00:23:30,369 --> 00:23:32,869 但是这里有一个小双底 486 00:23:32,869 --> 00:23:34,509 在这里尝试上涨 487 00:23:34,509 --> 00:23:35,809 再次尝试上涨 488 00:23:35,809 --> 00:23:38,309 有两次反转上涨的尝试一 489 00:23:38,309 --> 00:23:41,839 然后二也就是说之前有两次向下的推动 490 00:23:41,839 --> 00:23:44,640 第一推这里是第三次向下推 491 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,750 推双底本身就有两次向下的推动 492 00:23:47,750 --> 00:23:49,230 双底如果被跌破 493 00:23:49,230 --> 00:23:51,509 就是第三推了 494 00:23:52,670 --> 00:23:58,369 阴线阳线阴线阳线第三次向下的推动在这里 495 00:23:58,369 --> 00:24:02,529 楔形牛旗强势多头突破之后的楔形回调 496 00:24:03,930 --> 00:24:07,529 也许你可以说它是三角形第一次向下的推动 497 00:24:07,529 --> 00:24:08,660 在这里 498 00:24:08,660 --> 00:24:13,699 也就是说这根大阳线也属于回调结构的一部分 499 00:24:14,219 --> 00:24:15,979 尽管他非常强势 500 00:24:15,979 --> 00:24:17,699 但一些程序会认为 501 00:24:17,699 --> 00:24:19,939 这根大阳线也是三角形的一部分 502 00:24:19,939 --> 00:24:22,219 是最初突破之后的回调 503 00:24:25,559 --> 00:24:28,000 三次向下推动空头突破 504 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:28,839 第一推 505 00:24:28,839 --> 00:24:29,799 第二推 506 00:24:29,799 --> 00:24:30,599 第三推 507 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,799 通道线并没有收敛 508 00:24:34,659 --> 00:24:36,959 但仍然可以看作三推楔型 509 00:24:36,959 --> 00:24:39,858 并且预期多头突破的机会 510 00:24:41,289 --> 00:24:42,130 楔形顶 511 00:24:42,130 --> 00:24:43,569 也许你感到疑惑 512 00:24:43,569 --> 00:24:44,329 这哪里是 513 00:24:44,329 --> 00:24:45,369 难道这是第一推 514 00:24:45,369 --> 00:24:46,650 住在这里窄通道小 515 00:24:46,650 --> 00:24:47,809 然后你说这是第二 516 00:24:47,809 --> 00:24:48,809 只是示范如何 517 00:24:48,809 --> 00:24:51,230 第三推推新手帮阳线突破 518 00:24:51,230 --> 00:24:51,690 是的 519 00:24:51,690 --> 00:24:53,410 所以这是第一推无感情 520 00:24:53,410 --> 00:24:55,470 然后第二推上影线是回调 521 00:24:55,470 --> 00:24:59,019 第三推小楔形嵌套在大的楔形里面 522 00:25:00,259 --> 00:25:01,319 这是第一推 523 00:25:01,319 --> 00:25:04,230 一些电脑程序会说这是第一推 524 00:25:04,230 --> 00:25:05,940 无论选择哪一种 525 00:25:05,940 --> 00:25:08,240 这是一个略微收敛的上涨通道 526 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,099 我把它看做一个小的楔形顶 527 00:25:10,099 --> 00:25:12,259 而在更小的时间周期的K线图 528 00:25:12,259 --> 00:25:16,279 它可能是一个非常明显漂亮的楔形顶结构 529 00:25:17,579 --> 00:25:18,880 跌破了上涨通道 530 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,099 也许会有第二段下跌 531 00:25:21,579 --> 00:25:23,460 反弹了三或四次 532 00:25:23,460 --> 00:25:26,519 1234 533 00:25:26,519 --> 00:25:28,359 这是一个楔形雄奇 534 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:29,480 然后是一个小的 535 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:30,400 第二段下跌 536 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,440 第一段下跌反弹 537 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:33,960 第二段 538 00:25:36,380 --> 00:25:38,000 非常窄的上涨通道 539 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:39,259 通道并不收敛 540 00:25:39,259 --> 00:25:42,220 但是有一系列抢购高潮一 541 00:25:42,220 --> 00:25:43,079 然后二 542 00:25:43,079 --> 00:25:44,160 然后回调 543 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:45,079 三 544 00:25:45,569 --> 00:25:47,589 在更小的时间周期图上 545 00:25:47,589 --> 00:25:49,250 这个楔形可能会更明显 546 00:25:49,250 --> 00:25:50,750 你可以说这是第一推 547 00:25:50,750 --> 00:25:51,609 第二推 548 00:25:51,609 --> 00:25:54,894 第三推没区别 549 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:56,859 在一个很窄的通道中 550 00:25:56,859 --> 00:25:58,799 有两次或三次向上的推力 551 00:25:58,799 --> 00:26:00,519 通常不会说他是楔形 552 00:26:00,519 --> 00:26:03,450 然而你可以认为它是一个楔形 553 00:26:03,450 --> 00:26:05,210 至少在小的时间周期上 554 00:26:05,210 --> 00:26:08,079 可以看到三推的结构预期会下跌 555 00:26:08,079 --> 00:26:10,720 大部分时候不会有这么大幅的下跌 556 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:14,140 但偶尔也会出现注关于窄通道的三推 557 00:26:14,140 --> 00:26:15,519 两节课后会详细 558 00:26:15,519 --> 00:26:16,849 也许这是第一推 559 00:26:16,849 --> 00:26:19,230 第二推或者第一推 560 00:26:19,230 --> 00:26:20,529 第二推在这里 561 00:26:20,529 --> 00:26:22,069 然后第三推在那里 562 00:26:22,069 --> 00:26:25,049 不同的程序有不同的算法 563 00:26:30,279 --> 00:26:33,000 接下来我想重点讲一下划线的选择 564 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,000 通道内的小波段越多 565 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,519 划线的选择就越多 566 00:26:38,869 --> 00:26:42,309 每个高低点都可能用来确定线的位置 567 00:26:43,900 --> 00:26:48,259 多次反转的结果是经常有很多划线的选择 568 00:26:48,849 --> 00:26:50,890 一些通道线会有短缺 569 00:26:50,890 --> 00:26:52,089 只一个或几个点 570 00:26:52,089 --> 00:26:54,009 没有完全碰到线 571 00:26:54,349 --> 00:26:55,769 一些会有突刺 572 00:26:55,769 --> 00:26:58,519 指一个或几个点超出了线的外面 573 00:26:58,519 --> 00:27:01,859 通常来说在短缺和突刺两者之间 574 00:27:01,859 --> 00:27:04,519 我会选择有突刺的通道线 575 00:27:05,930 --> 00:27:09,210 因为它能更好地突出市场在做什么 576 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,980 这里市场处于下降趋势 577 00:27:15,980 --> 00:27:19,559 你可以看到很多次向下的推动反弹下跌 578 00:27:19,559 --> 00:27:21,659 一直重复这样的行为 579 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,359 每当你看到三次反转的尝试 580 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,559 你就要考虑到楔形反转的可能性 581 00:27:33,559 --> 00:27:35,259 一次反转尝试在这里 582 00:27:35,259 --> 00:27:36,440 一次在这里 583 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:37,440 还有一次在这里 584 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,609 因此这三次反转形成了一个楔形底低点一 585 00:27:41,609 --> 00:27:42,470 低点二 586 00:27:42,470 --> 00:27:44,089 低点三 587 00:27:44,619 --> 00:27:45,960 一旦有两个点 588 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,559 我就可以画一条线 589 00:27:47,559 --> 00:27:50,519 我可以连接低点一和二划线 590 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:54,480 可以看到D点三没有碰到这条线 591 00:27:54,750 --> 00:27:56,250 这就是短缺 592 00:27:56,250 --> 00:27:57,569 再看后面 593 00:27:57,569 --> 00:27:59,640 这是一次反弹 594 00:27:59,759 --> 00:28:01,740 这里是第二次反弹上涨 595 00:28:01,740 --> 00:28:04,319 我可以连接低点一和二划线 596 00:28:04,460 --> 00:28:06,059 在低点三形成后 597 00:28:06,059 --> 00:28:08,039 我又可以画一条不同的线 598 00:28:08,039 --> 00:28:09,940 如果我选择一和三 599 00:28:09,940 --> 00:28:12,539 那么低点二就碰不到了 600 00:28:14,009 --> 00:28:15,970 这里我画了两个楔形笔 601 00:28:15,970 --> 00:28:17,210 前者三没碰到 602 00:28:18,650 --> 00:28:20,849 后者二没碰到 603 00:28:21,500 --> 00:28:24,319 划线的目的是了解市场在做什么 604 00:28:24,319 --> 00:28:26,980 当面临不同的选择时 605 00:28:26,980 --> 00:28:29,819 你应该选择最能突出市场行为的线 606 00:28:30,859 --> 00:28:33,890 因为它更能帮助你思考下一步该怎么做 607 00:28:34,049 --> 00:28:36,929 每当市场三次尝试做某件事 608 00:28:36,929 --> 00:28:38,209 尝试下跌 609 00:28:38,209 --> 00:28:39,689 但反转上涨 610 00:28:39,689 --> 00:28:41,469 下跌上涨 611 00:28:41,469 --> 00:28:43,288 第三次反转上涨 612 00:28:43,288 --> 00:28:48,099 通常如果市场连续234次尝试做 613 00:28:48,099 --> 00:28:49,779 很可能就会开始反向移动 614 00:28:49,779 --> 00:28:53,029 所以经常会在三次向下推动后反转上涨 615 00:28:53,029 --> 00:28:54,710 注这里也是一样 616 00:28:54,710 --> 00:28:57,250 或小反转机下降通道变得更平缓 617 00:28:57,250 --> 00:28:57,990 更弱 618 00:28:57,990 --> 00:28:58,869 也是楔形 619 00:28:58,869 --> 00:29:01,289 这里我没有把上方的通道线画出来 620 00:29:01,289 --> 00:29:04,259 但还是可以看出通道长收势反转上涨 621 00:29:04,259 --> 00:29:06,180 第二次尝试反转上涨 622 00:29:06,180 --> 00:29:07,980 现在第三次尝试反转 623 00:29:07,980 --> 00:29:09,720 空头突破失败了 624 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,299 空投不断尝试让市场下跌 625 00:29:12,299 --> 00:29:14,400 但他们正在失败 626 00:29:15,709 --> 00:29:18,449 直到某个时刻空投放弃了 627 00:29:18,449 --> 00:29:20,729 然后市场开始做相反的事情 628 00:29:20,729 --> 00:29:22,388 开始上涨 629 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:27,420 刚才说到 630 00:29:27,420 --> 00:29:29,900 如果三个点不完全在一条线上 631 00:29:29,900 --> 00:29:31,000 有两种划线的 632 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:32,339 我可以使用一和二 633 00:29:32,339 --> 00:29:34,480 也可以用一和三 634 00:29:36,019 --> 00:29:37,359 这里也是一样 635 00:29:37,359 --> 00:29:38,660 一共有三个点 636 00:29:38,660 --> 00:29:41,039 我需要低点一和另外一个点来划线 637 00:29:41,039 --> 00:29:42,949 所以有两种选择 638 00:29:42,949 --> 00:29:44,628 我可以使用一和二 639 00:29:44,628 --> 00:29:47,440 也可以用一和三 640 00:29:49,559 --> 00:29:52,289 现在画的这条线有短缺 641 00:29:52,730 --> 00:29:55,089 低点三没有完全碰到这条线 642 00:29:55,089 --> 00:29:58,009 而这里是点二没有碰到 643 00:29:58,549 --> 00:30:01,269 如果我连接不同的点会发生什么呢 644 00:30:01,269 --> 00:30:03,769 例如这里连接一和三 645 00:30:03,769 --> 00:30:06,750 而这里连接一和二 646 00:30:09,019 --> 00:30:10,180 新的线有突刺 647 00:30:11,819 --> 00:30:15,450 如果这里我连接一和3.2 648 00:30:15,450 --> 00:30:18,210 就在线的外面是一个突刺 649 00:30:19,559 --> 00:30:22,640 这里如果我连接一和二 650 00:30:24,660 --> 00:30:28,140 点三就在线的下方是一个突刺 651 00:30:29,759 --> 00:30:31,619 所以这里有两个选择 652 00:30:31,619 --> 00:30:33,160 蓝色线没碰到 653 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,440 金色线有突刺 654 00:30:36,819 --> 00:30:38,420 我会选择金色线 655 00:30:38,420 --> 00:30:40,079 因为相比没碰到的线 656 00:30:40,079 --> 00:30:41,119 有突刺的线 657 00:30:41,119 --> 00:30:43,579 更能够突出市场的行为 658 00:30:45,559 --> 00:30:48,200 更容易看出市场在做什么 659 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,880 这里是点二没碰到 660 00:30:52,059 --> 00:30:54,359 我通常会选择画金色的线 661 00:30:54,359 --> 00:30:56,140 因为有突刺 662 00:30:57,559 --> 00:31:00,519 而有突刺的线更能够突出市场的行为 663 00:31:00,519 --> 00:31:02,140 注关于划线 664 00:31:02,140 --> 00:31:03,759 在16a bonus 665 00:31:03,759 --> 00:31:06,240 13等已有详细讲解 666 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,779 这节课我讲了楔形的定义 667 00:31:08,779 --> 00:31:11,799 任何三次向上或向下倾斜的推动 668 00:31:11,799 --> 00:31:14,240 就构成了广义的楔形结构 669 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,759 通常楔形是收敛的 670 00:31:16,759 --> 00:31:18,829 通道线越来越靠近 671 00:31:18,829 --> 00:31:22,390 所以楔形基本上就是一个向上或向下倾斜的收 672 00:31:22,390 --> 00:31:26,138 有时它可以非常陡峭的向上或向下倾斜 673 00:31:26,298 --> 00:31:28,979 你需要两个点来画一条线 674 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,559 而楔形有三个点三次推动 675 00:31:32,559 --> 00:31:34,359 所以你有两种划线的选择 676 00:31:34,359 --> 00:31:35,599 1~2或1~2 677 00:31:35,599 --> 00:31:36,900 可以使用一和二 678 00:31:36,900 --> 00:31:38,920 也可以用一和三 679 00:31:39,690 --> 00:31:42,309 通常一条线会有短缺 680 00:31:42,309 --> 00:31:44,890 另一条线会有突刺 681 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,359 我会选择有突刺的线 682 00:31:50,588 --> 00:31:54,469 因为它更能够突出市场正在做什么 683 00:31:58,119 --> 00:31:59,400 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 684 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:03,000 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程先行的 685 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,359 第一节课就先讲到这里
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