【Financial Education】暴涨95%！AMD财报炸裂，目标价剑指$1000？

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在股市中

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有时你会意识到可以赚取改变人生的财富

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市场中存在某些机会

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你可以赚取改变人生的财富

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AMD已成为我们公众投资者的机会之一

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仅看这些财报

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我们有六十二万三千美元

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如果汇总我所有投资组合中的AMD股票

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我们以超过一百万美元的利润进入财报季

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假设我们要退出财报季

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AMD或带来数百万美元的利润

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这只股票的上涨简直令人惊叹

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接下来我们将讨论这只股票

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它未来将走向何方

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这是否仍是好机会

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这是否不再是好机会

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我们正在谈论财报

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所有这些利好消息

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我也将在视频中分享我的预测

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好的，嗯

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顺便说一句

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你知道的

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当你经历这样的时刻时

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永远心怀感恩

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永远保持感激

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太棒了

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显然要说到

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你知道的

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所有搭乘AMD快车并获利的人

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嗯

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祝贺大家

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我们都能心怀感激

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我很高兴我们投入了努力并坚定买入

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嗯

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你知道的

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现在我们开始享受成果

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没错

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Palantir

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Palantir也是我改变人生的股票之一

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也许你们中的一些人

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真是令人惊叹

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现在

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他们昨天刚公布财报

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其实我还没来得及讨论这个

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我想谈谈Palantir

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股价下跌

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今天视频中这些内容

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我们将讨论Palantir和PayPal

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我以为视频里该谈谈负面消息

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我们将讨论PayPal今日公布的财报

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营收数据刚刚公布

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我们将讨论revolve

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这是一家小盘股

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我们稍后会详细分析

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这里存在难以置信的投资机会

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他们不想回应视频中的几位华尔街人士

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然后我们将回应汤姆·李

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刚刚上线

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CBC最近采访了他对市场的观点

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感谢大家加入我

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有一点

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大家只需要一个充满活力的视频

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如果能为我点个赞

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希望大家能认可我付出的努力

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为了这些视频

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当然还有我所做的所有研究工作

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所有这些我只希望大家点个赞

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点赞按钮

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希望大家能支持我

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请务必订阅

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也欢迎来到频道

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如果还没订阅的话

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还有

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大日子到了 三人组在私密群组中投资组合刚破百万

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所以领取这些奖励

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然后我们有六位私密群成员

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投资组合刚破千万

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我相信AMD即将启动的行情还会再现

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我确定会有更多人跟进

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所以

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恭喜私密群所有成员

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达成里程碑

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如果你想加入私密群

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想要获取所有课程资料

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想要加入六位数俱乐部

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想要进入我的私密Discord

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专属聊天

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每周视频

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所有优质内容

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千倍股票网

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这将是置顶评论

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在下方

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点击链接加入

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带您进入群组

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也许本周晚些时候

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也许下周

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是时候提升到新高度了

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好的

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你已经看到了

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你已经多次见证了

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男人

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在这个游戏中我们可以改变金钱命运

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嗯

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如果你知道的话

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如果你更认真

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你想要更认真对待这个游戏

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你想要登上这列列车

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我们可以

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呃

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我可以教你一切

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我上来后有点

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好的

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好的

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各位

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所以从一开始就

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好的

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听着

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我们说的是加号

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这是一个A+

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D类的收益

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营收增长了百分之三十八

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销售成本上升百分之三十三

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你的商业模式已有重大杠杆优势

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总销售成本上升

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呃

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本季度为百分之三十一

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这还不错

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当你的营收增长百分之三十八时

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这意味着毛利润将爆发式增长

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正是我们看到的

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公司毛利润增长了百分之四十五至五点

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呃五点

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四亿美元

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R

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D类增长了百分之三十九

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营销、一般及行政费用增长百分之四一

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这些数字略高

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比我预期的要高一些

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理想情况下因为营收增长百分之三十八

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但请记住

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AMD的

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营收增长率将在未来几个季度大幅加速

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所以我并不太担心

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对

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公司总运营费用增长百分之三十五

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因此运营利润增长了百分之八十三

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惊人数字

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惊人数字

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天啊

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百分之八十三

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营业利润和净利润同比增长95%

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伙计们

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我们还没到450美元的股价

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不过

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450美元的股价即将到来

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天啊

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等450美元的股价来了再说

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我们的营业利润增长了83%

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净利润同比增长95%

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而我们还没到450美元的股价

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你们知道450美元股价来临时会发生什么

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天啊

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摊薄后的每股收益

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公司同比增长89%

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同比来看

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简直惊人的数据

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AMD交出惊人成绩单

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几乎全线飘红

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从我看到的数据

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同时指引超出

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华尔街预期

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请注意

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他们指引的

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高于华尔街预期

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猜猜他们会达成什么

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而且他们还会超越这些数字

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所以他们不会给出无法超越的业绩

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明白吧

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丽莎·苏

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她懂这个游戏

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她精通华尔街游戏

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她会来碾压这些数据

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这显然难以置信

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现在

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达到了什么水平

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我告诉你

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你们接下来很重要

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关于股票

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我之前告诉过你们

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当时是什么

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嗯三

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我认为是365到480

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或者抱歉

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365到380

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为什么这是关键区间

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这是分析师预期的最高价格目标

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没错

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我们已经突破了这个区间

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我告诉你们

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我们将深入400美元上方

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如果我们一口气冲过去

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现在我们已经突破了

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华尔街最看多的分析师

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至少截至上周

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除非有分析师在最近

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比如过去几天就给股票定下400美元以上的目标价

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我们已经超越所有人

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即使是华尔街最看多的分析师

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股票现在已跑赢他们的预期

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这意味着未来几周AMD将迎来一波升级行情

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在接下来的一个月

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具体来说未来七天

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华尔街投行将接连上调目标价

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接下来几周将持续迎来洪流

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但很多机构会试图在接下来

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我估计三个交易日内

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基本上没错

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这将非常疯狂

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你会看到股票接连被上调

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讨论GPU需求

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讨论CPU需求

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这些信息会被算法接收

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显然会传达到所有华尔街

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投行机构

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对冲基金进一步积累动能

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AMD将成为最令人兴奋的

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嗯

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如何在股市中布局

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没错，所以啊

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你知道的

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我觉得

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这只股票

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好吧

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穆和沙德克

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一些内存芯片概念股

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但我觉得你知道的

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AMD正处于风口

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AMD现在势头正猛

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正试图成为

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市场最热门的股票

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现在必须持有的股票

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这只股票会往哪里走

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好的

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关于AMD的情况

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听好了

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基于我对股票的预测

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我们还有很长一段上涨路

248
00:06:49,738 --> 00:06:52,939
我对AMD的看多观点

249
00:06:52,939 --> 00:06:57,209
股票将突破一千美元大关

250
00:06:57,209 --> 00:06:58,949
如果我们只看明年

251
00:06:58,949 --> 00:07:00,230
基于我的看涨情景

252
00:07:00,230 --> 00:07:02,350
我预计股价将在五到

253
00:07:02,350 --> 00:07:06,439
或许在2027年甚至会达到六百美元以上的股票

254
00:07:06,439 --> 00:07:08,689
请记住在我的看涨情景中

255
00:07:08,689 --> 00:07:10,209
股价可能在十五

256
00:07:10,209 --> 00:07:14,209
接下来几年可能涨至一千七百到二千美元

257
00:07:14,209 --> 00:07:15,930
所以即使支付四百

258
00:07:15,930 --> 00:07:16,850
其实也不算太差

259
00:07:16,850 --> 00:07:17,490
如果这种情况发生

260
00:07:17,490 --> 00:07:18,470
但请记住

261
00:07:18,470 --> 00:07:20,769
我的激进情景总是更积极

262
00:07:20,769 --> 00:07:23,910
在基准情景下我则更保守一些

263
00:07:23,910 --> 00:07:25,509
但我的基准情景仍需股票

264
00:07:25,509 --> 00:07:26,490
突破一千美元

265
00:07:26,490 --> 00:07:27,970
基本上没错

266
00:07:27,970 --> 00:07:29,649
所以即使在四百价位

267
00:07:29,649 --> 00:07:32,230
若未来几年股价涨至一千

268
00:07:32,230 --> 00:07:33,048
以上

269
00:07:33,048 --> 00:07:34,009
仍是值得买入

270
00:07:34,009 --> 00:07:36,028
对吧嗯并且请记住

271
00:07:36,028 --> 00:07:36,649
我的基准情景

272
00:07:36,649 --> 00:07:40,439
很多人看到我的基准情景会认为太低

273
00:07:40,439 --> 00:07:41,699
如果你看我的数据

274
00:07:41,699 --> 00:07:44,060
我设定了五到百分之五的营收增长

275
00:07:44,060 --> 00:07:45,339
正如丽莎提到的

276
00:07:45,339 --> 00:07:48,060
但人们认为随着gpu需求

277
00:07:48,060 --> 00:07:49,319
将推动amd的发展

278
00:07:49,319 --> 00:07:51,120
再加上现在的cpu需求

279
00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:52,420
以及他们所有业务进展

280
00:07:52,420 --> 00:07:57,339
很多人觉得三到五的营收增长其实太低

281
00:07:57,339 --> 00:08:01,769
所以我暂时不会调整数据

282
00:08:01,769 --> 00:08:03,389
我会参加财报电话会

283
00:08:03,389 --> 00:08:04,769
做三千次行业交流

284
00:08:04,769 --> 00:08:07,029
并再次与你沟通

285
00:08:07,029 --> 00:08:07,589
好的

286
00:08:07,589 --> 00:08:11,389
我们拭目以待可能需要上调数据

287
00:08:11,389 --> 00:08:13,610
在营收增长预期方面

288
00:08:13,610 --> 00:08:18,040
但这是我目前的基准情景

289
00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:18,759
但我要告诉你

290
00:08:18,759 --> 00:08:21,279
很多人会觉得这些数据太低

291
00:08:21,279 --> 00:08:23,100
我们远超这个水平

292
00:08:23,100 --> 00:08:27,879
我的净利润增长四到五可能太保守

293
00:08:27,879 --> 00:08:29,420
看看他们的杠杆效应

294
00:08:29,420 --> 00:08:33,389
还没到4500系列就已

295
00:08:33,389 --> 00:08:36,489
我们讨论的是净利润增长九十五%

296
00:08:36,489 --> 00:08:40,469
营收增长三十八%啊

297
00:08:41,629 --> 00:08:47,389
目前我的基准情景可能严重偏低

298
00:08:47,389 --> 00:08:48,610
非常低

299
00:08:49,909 --> 00:08:52,149
可能需要大幅上调这些数据

300
00:08:52,149 --> 00:08:53,730
我会就此再与你沟通

301
00:08:53,730 --> 00:08:54,389
我必须做

302
00:08:54,389 --> 00:08:55,809
我必须参加电话会议

303
00:08:55,809 --> 00:08:58,309
我需要就此事多思考

304
00:08:58,309 --> 00:09:00,990
但我说的是现在看的话

305
00:09:00,990 --> 00:09:03,169
我觉得我的基准太低了

306
00:09:03,169 --> 00:09:05,870
我总是希望基准案保持保守

307
00:09:05,870 --> 00:09:09,539
但说实话这可能保守得离谱

308
00:09:09,539 --> 00:09:11,399
越看越觉得

309
00:09:11,399 --> 00:09:13,960
四七亿对二六亿

310
00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,519
他们可能轻松突破五十

311
00:09:16,759 --> 00:09:18,440
我说实话吧

312
00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:19,779
他们大概会突破五十

313
00:09:19,779 --> 00:09:22,000
即便如此

314
00:09:25,500 --> 00:09:26,940
而越分析

315
00:09:26,940 --> 00:09:27,340
而且

316
00:09:27,340 --> 00:09:32,820
我越有信心股价可能涨到一千或更高

317
00:09:34,919 --> 00:09:37,940
这意味着仍有很长的路要走

318
00:09:37,940 --> 00:09:38,578
没错

319
00:09:38,578 --> 00:09:40,058
没有绝对保证

320
00:09:40,058 --> 00:09:42,099
他们可能搞砸很多事情

321
00:09:42,099 --> 00:09:42,859
或者我不知道

322
00:09:42,859 --> 00:09:44,450
突然没人想用了

323
00:09:44,450 --> 00:09:45,330
人工智能了

324
00:09:45,330 --> 00:09:45,710
比如

325
00:09:45,710 --> 00:09:46,129
你知道的

326
00:09:46,129 --> 00:09:49,529
我们可以设想各种疯狂场景

327
00:09:49,529 --> 00:09:52,379
但我说

328
00:09:52,379 --> 00:09:55,200
股价突破一千更有可能

329
00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,580
然后回调到两百

330
00:09:58,649 --> 00:10:01,370
这是关于Amd需要注意的

331
00:10:01,370 --> 00:10:03,190
这股票真牛

332
00:10:03,190 --> 00:10:05,289
这股票太棒了

333
00:10:05,759 --> 00:10:08,919
这可能是我第一次盈利的股票

334
00:10:09,690 --> 00:10:12,549
我是否通过股票赚过多次百万

335
00:10:12,549 --> 00:10:13,970
我可能有

336
00:10:14,548 --> 00:10:18,989
我知道我肯定多次赚过百万

337
00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:22,960
但我在想是否赚过三百万

338
00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,379
四百万单只股票

339
00:10:25,620 --> 00:10:27,120
我不这么认为

340
00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:28,460
这可能是我的第一次

341
00:10:28,460 --> 00:10:29,059
我不确定

342
00:10:29,059 --> 00:10:29,539
拭目以待

343
00:10:29,539 --> 00:10:32,039
现在不能太兴奋

344
00:10:32,039 --> 00:10:36,070
上涨两百倍的股票是Palantir

345
00:10:36,070 --> 00:10:36,450
没错

346
00:10:36,450 --> 00:10:37,830
现在这股票太惊人了

347
00:10:37,830 --> 00:10:40,889
这股票现在极具争议

348
00:10:40,889 --> 00:10:42,309
因为人们看到数据后

349
00:10:42,309 --> 00:10:43,049
天啊

350
00:10:43,049 --> 00:10:43,769
这到底怎么回事

351
00:10:43,769 --> 00:10:45,590
股票价格下跌了

352
00:10:45,590 --> 00:10:46,649
人们喜欢什么

353
00:10:46,649 --> 00:10:47,009
所以

354
00:10:47,009 --> 00:10:48,009
Appellaners的财报

355
00:10:48,009 --> 00:10:49,309
这简直是完美表现

356
00:10:49,309 --> 00:10:51,820
这太荒谬了

357
00:10:51,820 --> 00:10:52,220
比如

358
00:10:52,220 --> 00:10:52,500
我不知道

359
00:10:52,500 --> 00:10:53,940
我不知道该怎么形容

360
00:10:53,940 --> 00:10:54,799
这简直太荒谬了

361
00:10:54,799 --> 00:10:55,279
好的

362
00:10:55,279 --> 00:10:57,559
比如amd季度报告表现优异

363
00:10:57,559 --> 00:10:59,269
amd的报告非常出色

364
00:10:59,269 --> 00:11:02,029
Palantiers现在简直登峰造极

365
00:11:02,029 --> 00:11:03,029
收入增长

366
00:11:03,029 --> 00:11:05,240
85%

367
00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:06,299
收入成本

368
00:11:06,299 --> 00:11:08,399
仅上涨25%

369
00:11:08,399 --> 00:11:09,960
收入增长85%

370
00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,879
我从未见过60个百分点的差距

371
00:11:12,879 --> 00:11:15,929
收入与成本之间的差距

372
00:11:15,929 --> 00:11:17,990
这太离谱了

373
00:11:17,990 --> 00:11:24,649
这家公司的毛利率在这里增长了99%

374
00:11:24,970 --> 00:11:27,740
销售与市场费用仅增长35%

375
00:11:27,740 --> 00:11:29,460
研发费用增长19%

376
00:11:29,460 --> 00:11:30,759
G费用增长12%

377
00:11:30,759 --> 00:11:31,139
总计

378
00:11:31,139 --> 00:11:33,039
营业利润增长24%

379
00:11:33,039 --> 00:11:36,710
运营利润增长328%

380
00:11:36,710 --> 00:11:39,470
利息收入增长32%

381
00:11:39,470 --> 00:11:42,889
其他收入增长2250%

382
00:11:42,889 --> 00:11:45,840
税前利润增长298%

383
00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:49,279
净利润增长303%

384
00:11:49,279 --> 00:11:53,740
UDPS增长325%

385
00:11:53,740 --> 00:11:54,470
好的

386
00:11:54,470 --> 00:11:57,289
Palantir到底怎么了

387
00:11:57,289 --> 00:11:59,850
为什么股价下跌

388
00:11:59,850 --> 00:12:02,690
财报公布后股价下跌

389
00:12:02,690 --> 00:12:03,409
他们不得不

390
00:12:03,409 --> 00:12:04,850
分析师预期

391
00:12:04,850 --> 00:12:05,450
指引

392
00:12:05,450 --> 00:12:07,029
远超预期

393
00:12:07,029 --> 00:12:09,389
但股价仍在下跌且需注意

394
00:12:09,389 --> 00:12:12,740
股价并未处于历史高位

395
00:12:12,740 --> 00:12:13,620
在财报公布前

396
00:12:13,620 --> 00:12:14,100
我当时就说

397
00:12:14,100 --> 00:12:14,620
天啊

398
00:12:14,620 --> 00:12:15,840
股价简直离谱

399
00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:16,460
就像

400
00:12:16,460 --> 00:12:16,779
你知道的

401
00:12:16,779 --> 00:12:17,340
高得离谱

402
00:12:17,340 --> 00:12:17,740
不

403
00:12:17,740 --> 00:12:18,059
没有

404
00:12:18,059 --> 00:12:19,340
它已经下跌了

405
00:12:19,340 --> 00:12:21,820
大概从历史高点下跌了25%到30%

406
00:12:21,820 --> 00:12:24,078
现在又继续下跌了

407
00:12:24,078 --> 00:12:26,178
Palantir到底怎么了

408
00:12:26,178 --> 00:12:26,499
嗯

409
00:12:26,499 --> 00:12:31,629
我觉得有几个因素，首先现在SaaS领域负面情绪太重

410
00:12:31,629 --> 00:12:34,269
这种负面情绪简直太夸张了

411
00:12:34,269 --> 00:12:38,450
围绕SaaS相关公司，而Palantir也被归类到这个类别

412
00:12:38,450 --> 00:12:39,309
这些股票

413
00:12:39,309 --> 00:12:42,039
现在没人要它们

414
00:12:42,039 --> 00:12:43,019
现在没人要

415
00:12:43,019 --> 00:12:44,519
可能以后会想要

416
00:12:44,519 --> 00:12:45,399
六个月后

417
00:12:45,399 --> 00:12:46,019
一年后

418
00:12:46,019 --> 00:12:46,639
一年半后

419
00:12:46,639 --> 00:12:48,139
但截至今天

420
00:12:48,139 --> 00:12:49,840
没人要

421
00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:51,379
不管你是什么人

422
00:12:51,379 --> 00:12:53,940
如果你现在买入服务类股票应该会更安心

423
00:12:53,940 --> 00:12:56,360
现在这些股票或Salesforce等公司

424
00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,119
兄弟

425
00:12:58,119 --> 00:13:00,678
现在连Palantir都不想买

426
00:13:00,678 --> 00:13:02,139
他们到底想买什么

427
00:13:02,139 --> 00:13:06,250
如果他们现在都不愿购买Palantir

428
00:13:06,250 --> 00:13:07,970
年收入增长300%

429
00:13:07,970 --> 00:13:08,889
或者具体数字是多少

430
00:13:08,889 --> 00:13:10,039
这简直荒谬

431
00:13:10,039 --> 00:13:12,519
你以为他们会买Salesforce或ServiceNow吗

432
00:13:12,519 --> 00:13:14,620
现在没人想买这个领域的东西

433
00:13:14,620 --> 00:13:17,799
对了，还有一个因素

434
00:13:19,039 --> 00:13:20,399
他们必须调整这些数据

435
00:13:20,399 --> 00:13:22,919
明年对比这些数据会非常难看

436
00:13:22,919 --> 00:13:23,909
没错

437
00:13:23,909 --> 00:13:24,769
很难

438
00:13:24,769 --> 00:13:25,690
看来确实很难

439
00:13:25,690 --> 00:13:29,070
增长率可能会大幅放缓

440
00:13:29,070 --> 00:13:31,429
但依然会非常强劲

441
00:13:31,429 --> 00:13:36,009
但相比现在的数字就显得普通了

442
00:13:36,009 --> 00:13:37,830
没错，我之前就警告过

443
00:13:37,830 --> 00:13:38,940
华尔街的游戏

444
00:13:38,940 --> 00:13:41,059
当增长加速时

445
00:13:41,059 --> 00:13:41,720
这太令人兴奋了

446
00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:45,830
但Palantir即将进入增长放缓周期

447
00:13:45,830 --> 00:13:46,789
增长率

448
00:13:46,789 --> 00:13:47,230
你知道的

449
00:13:47,230 --> 00:13:48,309
当前收入增长

450
00:13:48,309 --> 00:13:49,629
85%或类似的增速

451
00:13:49,629 --> 00:13:51,269
最终他们将开始增长收入

452
00:13:51,269 --> 00:13:52,318
百分之七十

453
00:13:52,318 --> 00:13:53,259
百分之六十

454
00:13:53,259 --> 00:13:53,918
百分之五十

455
00:13:53,918 --> 00:13:55,119
这些数字仍然令人惊叹

456
00:13:55,119 --> 00:13:57,639
但当你增长百分之八十五

457
00:13:57,639 --> 00:13:58,039
嗯

458
00:13:58,039 --> 00:13:58,159
嗯

459
00:13:58,159 --> 00:13:58,480
嗯

460
00:13:58,480 --> 00:13:59,320
就像有些人喜欢的那样

461
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:00,179
嗯

462
00:14:00,179 --> 00:14:02,460
这就是公司目前的情况

463
00:14:02,460 --> 00:14:04,450
现在价格变得便宜多了

464
00:14:04,450 --> 00:14:04,929
现在

465
00:14:04,929 --> 00:14:08,470
关于Palantir我也看到过一些担忧

466
00:14:08,470 --> 00:14:08,690
好的

467
00:14:08,690 --> 00:14:10,279
这是一个新出现的担忧

468
00:14:10,799 --> 00:14:12,519
这种担忧涉及

469
00:14:12,519 --> 00:14:16,240
本质上是认为Palantir目前投资不足

470
00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:19,639
利润率正在快速增长

471
00:14:20,250 --> 00:14:22,889
研发支出并未以同样速度增长

472
00:14:22,889 --> 00:14:26,129
因此存在Palantir投资不足的判断

473
00:14:26,129 --> 00:14:31,519
这将在未来几年为商业模式埋下隐患

474
00:14:31,519 --> 00:14:32,320
不是现在

475
00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,399
但未来几年因投资不足

476
00:14:34,399 --> 00:14:35,840
这就是这种观点

477
00:14:37,639 --> 00:14:39,580
我不完全认同这种观点

478
00:14:39,580 --> 00:14:43,078
但目前确实存在这种担忧

479
00:14:43,078 --> 00:14:45,719
当这些因素同时发生时

480
00:14:45,719 --> 00:14:46,239
听着

481
00:14:46,239 --> 00:14:47,739
Palantir的价格大幅下跌

482
00:14:47,739 --> 00:14:50,750
比六个月前便宜了许多

483
00:14:50,750 --> 00:14:53,649
如果你看六个月前的股价

484
00:14:53,649 --> 00:14:54,250
当时的股价是多少

485
00:14:54,250 --> 00:14:55,789
两百二十八左右

486
00:14:55,789 --> 00:14:57,049
类似这样的价位

487
00:14:57,049 --> 00:14:59,629
现在讨论的股价在一百三十几

488
00:14:59,629 --> 00:15:04,809
营收和利润远超预期

489
00:15:04,809 --> 00:15:06,078
没错

490
00:15:06,479 --> 00:15:10,058
现在股价大幅回调

491
00:15:10,058 --> 00:15:11,999
实际盈利远超我的预期

492
00:15:11,999 --> 00:15:14,038
或任何人的预期

493
00:15:14,419 --> 00:15:16,340
现在反而更具吸引力

494
00:15:16,340 --> 00:15:18,779
Palantir目前最具投资价值

495
00:15:18,779 --> 00:15:21,809
这是我近期见过的最佳价位

496
00:15:21,809 --> 00:15:25,690
但这并不意味着股价短期内会上涨

497
00:15:25,690 --> 00:15:30,919
市场对SaaS类公司普遍存在负面情绪

498
00:15:30,919 --> 00:15:32,980
包括Palantir在内

499
00:15:32,980 --> 00:15:33,399
确实

500
00:15:33,399 --> 00:15:36,450
无论对错都被归为此类

501
00:15:36,570 --> 00:15:37,250
因此

502
00:15:39,730 --> 00:15:42,220
有人认为你不需要帕兰提尔

503
00:15:42,220 --> 00:15:44,059
只需要使用Gemini

504
00:15:44,059 --> 00:15:44,860
只需要使用Chat

505
00:15:44,860 --> 00:15:46,059
为你的业务使用GPT

506
00:15:46,059 --> 00:15:47,328
对吧，嗯

507
00:15:47,328 --> 00:15:48,528
我们拭目以待

508
00:15:48,528 --> 00:15:52,039
但你知道在短期内

509
00:15:52,039 --> 00:15:54,419
你无法对人们说些什么

510
00:15:54,419 --> 00:15:54,799
你知道的

511
00:15:54,799 --> 00:15:55,440
让他们感到与众不同

512
00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:56,279
如果他们感到这样

513
00:15:56,279 --> 00:15:56,840
他们确实感到这样

514
00:15:58,399 --> 00:16:00,929
没错，这就是帕兰提尔现在的状况

515
00:16:00,929 --> 00:16:03,289
让我们谈谈一直表现不佳的股票

516
00:16:03,289 --> 00:16:04,649
那就是PayPal

517
00:16:04,649 --> 00:16:06,029
我们称之为PayPal

518
00:16:06,029 --> 00:16:06,970
但其实就是PayPal

519
00:16:06,970 --> 00:16:07,509
好的

520
00:16:07,509 --> 00:16:08,870
营收看起来非常亮眼

521
00:16:08,870 --> 00:16:09,470
我感到兴奋

522
00:16:09,470 --> 00:16:10,230
看到这个数字时

523
00:16:10,230 --> 00:16:10,649
我心想

524
00:16:10,649 --> 00:16:10,909
哦

525
00:16:10,909 --> 00:16:11,389
让我们行动吧

526
00:16:11,389 --> 00:16:13,669
PayPal营收增长7%

527
00:16:13,669 --> 00:16:14,799
这是个好数字

528
00:16:14,799 --> 00:16:18,460
PayPal营收增长7%是个好成绩

529
00:16:18,460 --> 00:16:20,620
我相信TPV交易量

530
00:16:20,620 --> 00:16:22,610
如果我没记错的话增长了11%

531
00:16:22,610 --> 00:16:26,570
我认为在汇率中性基础上增长了8%或9%

532
00:16:26,570 --> 00:16:27,169
这很不错

533
00:16:27,169 --> 00:16:28,870
这些数据对PayPal来说很好

534
00:16:28,870 --> 00:16:30,909
问题出在哪些方面

535
00:16:30,909 --> 00:16:35,090
而这份报告获得D级的原因与此无关

536
00:16:35,090 --> 00:16:38,970
费用支出增长12%

537
00:16:38,970 --> 00:16:41,450
客户支持与运营费用增长12%

538
00:16:41,450 --> 00:16:43,529
技术与开发费用增长9%

539
00:16:43,529 --> 00:16:44,769
重组费用增长12%

540
00:16:44,769 --> 00:16:46,759
总运营费用上升10%

541
00:16:46,759 --> 00:16:48,279
而营收仅增长7%

542
00:16:48,279 --> 00:16:50,828
这对盈利能力不利

543
00:16:51,229 --> 00:16:53,969
营业利润同比下滑3%

544
00:16:53,969 --> 00:16:54,889
他们还提到

545
00:16:54,889 --> 00:16:58,850
今年出现了一次性费用支出

546
00:16:58,850 --> 00:17:01,519
相比去年同期收入增长了230%

547
00:17:01,519 --> 00:17:03,120
净利润下降14%

548
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:04,779
UDPS下降6%

549
00:17:04,779 --> 00:17:05,799
情况不至于那么糟糕

550
00:17:05,799 --> 00:17:08,358
如果不是因为那笔其他收入支出情况

551
00:17:08,358 --> 00:17:10,838
但运营收入同比仍有所下降

552
00:17:10,838 --> 00:17:13,490
这是PayPal的一份D级财报

553
00:17:13,490 --> 00:17:15,170
唯一的好消息是关于PayPal的

554
00:17:15,170 --> 00:17:16,980
估值低得令人难以置信

555
00:17:16,980 --> 00:17:17,599
你知道的

556
00:17:17,599 --> 00:17:19,619
这对股票影响不大吧

557
00:17:19,619 --> 00:17:20,059
并不是说

558
00:17:20,059 --> 00:17:20,259
哦

559
00:17:20,259 --> 00:17:21,380
股票现在要崩盘了

560
00:17:21,380 --> 00:17:22,779
股票已经崩盘了

561
00:17:22,779 --> 00:17:23,619
这很难

562
00:17:23,619 --> 00:17:24,000
我是说

563
00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,000
即使有这份D级报告

564
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:27,880
现在很难扭转这种局面

565
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:29,380
人们只是像知道的那样

566
00:17:29,380 --> 00:17:32,180
要么不持有要么买入

567
00:17:32,180 --> 00:17:32,859
你知道的

568
00:17:32,859 --> 00:17:35,470
这就是现状循环

569
00:17:35,470 --> 00:17:36,470
有一家小盘公司

570
00:17:36,470 --> 00:17:37,230
电子商务公司

571
00:17:37,230 --> 00:17:38,210
服装公司

572
00:17:38,210 --> 00:17:41,490
他们的损益表得B级评分

573
00:17:41,490 --> 00:17:41,890
这里

574
00:17:41,890 --> 00:17:42,690
净销售额

575
00:17:42,690 --> 00:17:46,219
看这16%的增长

576
00:17:46,219 --> 00:17:48,138
同比啊

577
00:17:48,138 --> 00:17:50,798
我们常听说消费者被通胀压榨

578
00:17:50,798 --> 00:17:51,888
所有这些负面因素

579
00:17:51,888 --> 00:17:53,088
一家零售商

580
00:17:53,088 --> 00:17:54,449
电商零售商

581
00:17:54,449 --> 00:17:55,209
增长了16%

582
00:17:55,209 --> 00:17:56,068
净销售额

583
00:17:56,068 --> 00:17:57,319
这很 impressive

584
00:17:57,319 --> 00:17:58,799
销售成本上涨14%

585
00:17:58,799 --> 00:17:59,380
这不错

586
00:17:59,380 --> 00:18:01,259
这意味着毛利率处于良好状态

587
00:18:01,259 --> 00:18:04,339
是的，这里公司毛利率提升了17%

588
00:18:04,339 --> 00:18:05,099
增长15%

589
00:18:05,099 --> 00:18:06,259
低于毛利率

590
00:18:06,259 --> 00:18:06,960
低于销售额

591
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:08,920
我喜欢销售与分销

592
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,019
毛利率下降16%

593
00:18:11,019 --> 00:18:12,099
与净销售额持平

594
00:18:12,099 --> 00:18:13,079
从百分比来看

595
00:18:13,079 --> 00:18:14,339
他们遇到的问题

596
00:18:14,339 --> 00:18:15,650
这里是营销

597
00:18:15,650 --> 00:18:16,710
营销费用增长2%

598
00:18:16,710 --> 00:18:18,130
公司增长8%

599
00:18:18,130 --> 00:18:19,369
这是个大数字

600
00:18:19,369 --> 00:18:20,410
现在数字很大

601
00:18:20,410 --> 00:18:21,710
请务必记住

602
00:18:22,029 --> 00:18:23,609
当你这样投入营销费用

603
00:18:23,609 --> 00:18:28,390
这可能对未来季度的商业模式有好处对吧

604
00:18:28,390 --> 00:18:31,130
你未必能立刻看到效益

605
00:18:31,130 --> 00:18:33,529
可能下一季度或下下季度才能显现

606
00:18:33,529 --> 00:18:36,750
像这样的情况公司只增长了12%

607
00:18:36,750 --> 00:18:38,109
远低于净销售额的增长

608
00:18:38,109 --> 00:18:39,109
远低于毛利润的增长

609
00:18:39,109 --> 00:18:39,769
这还不错

610
00:18:39,769 --> 00:18:42,720
但总运营费用增长18%超过毛利润

611
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:44,980
在百分比上也高于销售额

612
00:18:44,980 --> 00:18:45,819
这不太好

613
00:18:45,819 --> 00:18:48,039
但归根结底是因为营销这一项

614
00:18:48,039 --> 00:18:49,980
如果不是这一项如此突出

615
00:18:49,980 --> 00:18:51,388
我们这里就没什么问题了

616
00:18:51,388 --> 00:18:53,669
营业利润仅增长7%

617
00:18:53,669 --> 00:18:54,848
远低于毛利润

618
00:18:54,848 --> 00:18:56,989
说明存在某些费用问题

619
00:18:56,989 --> 00:18:59,549
而这正是我们讨论的营销支出

620
00:18:59,549 --> 00:19:00,789
然后其他收入

621
00:19:00,789 --> 00:19:02,630
这里增长了200%

622
00:19:02,630 --> 00:19:03,410
这非常不错

623
00:19:03,410 --> 00:19:05,720
税前利润增长19%

624
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:07,279
净利润增长21%

625
00:19:07,279 --> 00:19:08,279
Iludps增长2

626
00:19:08,279 --> 00:19:10,460
Revolve这里增长5%

627
00:19:10,460 --> 00:19:11,299
你知道的

628
00:19:11,299 --> 00:19:12,960
报告不错但不够完美

629
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:13,849
但总体还是好的

630
00:19:13,849 --> 00:19:15,429
嗯

631
00:19:15,909 --> 00:19:17,848
股票长期会上涨

632
00:19:17,848 --> 00:19:18,568
明天可能

633
00:19:18,568 --> 00:19:20,068
谁知道呢 你的猜测和我一样

634
00:19:20,068 --> 00:19:21,949
但长期来看股价会大幅上涨

635
00:19:21,949 --> 00:19:23,729
应该涨到50到100美元

636
00:19:23,729 --> 00:19:25,878
长期现金及现金等价物

637
00:19:25,878 --> 00:19:26,419
330

638
00:19:26,419 --> 00:19:26,858
500万

639
00:19:26,858 --> 00:19:29,759
总负债是2.93亿美元

640
00:19:29,759 --> 00:19:33,730
想想看他们现金储备超过总负债

641
00:19:33,730 --> 00:19:35,450
整个公司而言

642
00:19:36,608 --> 00:19:38,848
长期股价会涨到50到100美元

643
00:19:38,848 --> 00:19:40,068
可能不是明天

644
00:19:40,068 --> 00:19:42,549
但长期来看让我们关注市场

645
00:19:42,549 --> 00:19:42,930
华尔街人士

646
00:19:42,930 --> 00:19:44,410
希望你们喜欢这个视频

647
00:19:44,410 --> 00:19:46,319
股市今天表现良好

648
00:19:46,319 --> 00:19:47,460
领涨的是标普

649
00:19:47,460 --> 00:19:48,779
上涨1.5%

650
00:19:48,779 --> 00:19:51,779
纳斯达克指数持续攀升

651
00:19:51,779 --> 00:19:54,359
我们正努力重返历史高点

652
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:55,019
是的

653
00:19:55,019 --> 00:19:56,160
我们正在关注中东局势

654
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,220
同时也在密切关注利率动向

655
00:19:58,220 --> 00:20:02,200
但坦率说这些因素并未真正抑制

656
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:03,779
德意志银行的看涨情绪

657
00:20:03,779 --> 00:20:05,869
八千八千

658
00:20:05,869 --> 00:20:07,630
他们重申了年末目标

659
00:20:07,630 --> 00:20:08,170
今天

660
00:20:08,170 --> 00:20:09,890
他们上调了盈利预测

661
00:20:09,890 --> 00:20:12,180
这才是核心故事

662
00:20:12,180 --> 00:20:14,819
市场由盈利推动前行

663
00:20:14,819 --> 00:20:15,660
顺便说一句

664
00:20:15,660 --> 00:20:17,339
如果你想在X平台关注我

665
00:20:17,339 --> 00:20:18,279
如果你使用X平台

666
00:20:18,279 --> 00:20:20,950
或者在Instagram关注我

667
00:20:20,950 --> 00:20:24,210
这些链接都在视频描述区

668
00:20:24,210 --> 00:20:25,329
所以如果你用Instagram

669
00:20:25,329 --> 00:20:26,049
或者使用X平台

670
00:20:26,049 --> 00:20:28,190
并想在这些平台关注我

671
00:20:28,190 --> 00:20:29,630
随时欢迎再次关注

672
00:20:29,630 --> 00:20:32,230
链接在描述区下方

673
00:20:32,230 --> 00:20:33,509
置顶评论可申请

674
00:20:33,509 --> 00:20:34,519
加入私密群组

675
00:20:34,519 --> 00:20:38,679
 Keith Lerner Joe认为牛市仍值得信任

676
00:20:38,679 --> 00:20:40,338
基于经济形势

677
00:20:40,338 --> 00:20:40,858
盈利表现

678
00:20:40,858 --> 00:20:42,459
估值与价格趋势

679
00:20:42,459 --> 00:20:46,170
证据仍支持给予市场信任

680
00:20:46,170 --> 00:20:49,630
此外历史高点是牛市特征

681
00:20:49,630 --> 00:20:55,200
近期 rally 有坚实基本面支撑

682
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:55,579
对吧

683
00:20:55,579 --> 00:20:55,859
是的

684
00:20:55,859 --> 00:20:58,180
有趣的是在开场陈述中

685
00:20:58,180 --> 00:21:01,240
你提到标普领先市场上涨

686
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,210
今天我有个问题

687
00:21:03,210 --> 00:21:06,130
当股市触及历史新高会怎样

688
00:21:06,130 --> 00:21:09,529
通常会创出新高

689
00:21:09,529 --> 00:21:12,700
油价下跌近4%

690
00:21:12,700 --> 00:21:14,599
并获得原油价格缓解

691
00:21:14,599 --> 00:21:14,859
而且

692
00:21:14,859 --> 00:21:19,909
这将助力尚未参与的市场领域

693
00:21:19,909 --> 00:21:21,628
本季度价值板块

694
00:21:21,628 --> 00:21:22,489
作为因素

695
00:21:22,489 --> 00:21:24,769
部分消费类股票

696
00:21:24,769 --> 00:21:26,400
毫无疑问

697
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,720
当前季度的 rally

698
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,400
建立在强劲动能之上

699
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,119
涨幅接近20%

700
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:33,940
在本季度

701
00:21:33,940 --> 00:21:35,799
它建立在半导体之上

702
00:21:35,799 --> 00:21:37,460
这些半导体价格已上涨近35%

703
00:21:37,460 --> 00:21:40,339
并且建立在你所识别的惊人增长之上

704
00:21:40,339 --> 00:21:42,210
但猜猜还有比这更厉害的

705
00:21:42,210 --> 00:21:44,509
如果我们现在能降低油价

706
00:21:44,509 --> 00:21:46,089
你就能恢复这种扩张叙事

707
00:21:46,089 --> 00:21:47,740
这相当相当有趣

708
00:21:47,740 --> 00:21:49,619
当你听到标普8000点的目标时

709
00:21:49,619 --> 00:21:49,920
是的

710
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,579
我指的是过去一个月的行业表现

711
00:21:52,579 --> 00:21:55,720
显然以科技和通信服务为主导

712
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,690
分别达到18%和16.5%

713
00:21:58,690 --> 00:22:00,069
可选消费板块为14%

714
00:22:00,069 --> 00:22:02,529
亚马逊显然在其中扮演重要角色

715
00:22:02,529 --> 00:22:07,990
因为过去一个月该股涨幅近40%

716
00:22:07,990 --> 00:22:10,250
但核心故事是业绩增长

717
00:22:10,250 --> 00:22:13,069
一季度业绩增长2.8%

718
00:22:13,069 --> 00:22:15,369
而在顶端位置

719
00:22:15,369 --> 00:22:22,740
通信服务业绩增长55%，科技增长52%

720
00:22:22,740 --> 00:22:24,220
可选消费板块同样

721
00:22:24,220 --> 00:22:26,220
我将亚马逊归入其中并给予较高权重

722
00:22:26,220 --> 00:22:27,519
达到38%

723
00:22:27,519 --> 00:22:29,380
材料板块表现也不错

724
00:22:29,380 --> 00:22:32,039
然后逐渐向下递减

725
00:22:32,039 --> 00:22:33,940
随着指数稍有回落

726
00:22:33,940 --> 00:22:34,420
是的

727
00:22:34,420 --> 00:22:35,960
整体基础表现良好

728
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,759
我知道这非常依赖科技

729
00:22:37,759 --> 00:22:38,960
但还有其他亮点

730
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,059
目前前五名股票

731
00:22:41,059 --> 00:22:42,539
美光、瓦莱罗、福特

732
00:22:42,539 --> 00:22:44,369
新核心和旅行者

733
00:22:44,369 --> 00:22:44,930
我意思是

734
00:22:44,930 --> 00:22:46,230
这相当多元化

735
00:22:46,230 --> 00:22:46,670
如果你

736
00:22:46,670 --> 00:22:47,630
如果你问我

737
00:22:47,630 --> 00:22:50,890
但我觉得更令人印象深刻的是业绩不仅增长

738
00:22:50,890 --> 00:22:51,450
2.8%

739
00:22:51,450 --> 00:22:52,909
销售额增长11%

740
00:22:52,909 --> 00:22:56,829
我们看到利润率扩展约1个百分点

741
00:22:56,829 --> 00:22:58,410
这非常鼓舞人心

742
00:22:58,410 --> 00:23:02,339
尤其在许多公司面临更高原材料成本之际

743
00:23:02,339 --> 00:23:03,660
所以我们回到问题

744
00:23:03,660 --> 00:23:04,440
这一切为何发生

745
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,400
因为亚特兰大联储指标现为3.7%

746
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:08,279
7%

747
00:23:08,279 --> 00:23:09,500
波动剧烈

748
00:23:09,500 --> 00:23:09,910
斯科特

749
00:23:09,910 --> 00:23:10,430
你知道的

750
00:23:10,430 --> 00:23:11,089
我们战前

751
00:23:11,089 --> 00:23:12,069
我们曾是五三

752
00:23:12,069 --> 00:23:15,410
如今我们跌至一三，现在回升到三七

753
00:23:15,410 --> 00:23:17,839
所以整体趋势在改善

754
00:23:17,839 --> 00:23:19,859
面对所有未知因素

755
00:23:19,859 --> 00:23:21,059
这非常令人印象深刻

756
00:23:21,059 --> 00:23:22,720
我们从三月反弹了多少

757
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:23,380
三十

758
00:23:23,380 --> 00:23:24,059
哦

759
00:23:24,059 --> 00:23:24,799
确实如此

760
00:23:24,799 --> 00:23:26,940
嗯，还有转空头预期

761
00:23:26,940 --> 00:23:28,579
继续为伯尼加油

762
00:23:28,579 --> 00:23:32,910
那些被看好的股票类型

763
00:23:32,910 --> 00:23:35,210
过去一年被看好的群体

764
00:23:35,210 --> 00:23:38,250
过去几年最突出的是半导体

765
00:23:38,250 --> 00:23:38,609
没错

766
00:23:38,609 --> 00:23:40,519
英伟达、AMD

767
00:23:40,519 --> 00:23:42,720
博通、美光

768
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,000
再加个闪存盘

769
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:45,099
这类公司

770
00:23:45,099 --> 00:23:45,720
显然

771
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:48,750
它们是领涨股没错

772
00:23:49,309 --> 00:23:51,369
这还能持续多久

773
00:23:51,369 --> 00:23:53,029
我不知道这取决于

774
00:23:53,029 --> 00:23:55,930
比如AMD今年或明年涨到一千

775
00:23:55,930 --> 00:23:59,789
可能随后这些就不再被看好

776
00:23:59,789 --> 00:24:02,049
但在短期内

777
00:24:02,049 --> 00:24:03,619
这些仍是热门股

778
00:24:03,619 --> 00:24:04,819
下一波行情

779
00:24:04,819 --> 00:24:06,599
我认为这将是一

780
00:24:06,599 --> 00:24:11,319
我们可能迎来史诗级一到两年行情

781
00:24:11,319 --> 00:24:14,259
这些讨论已悄然启动

782
00:24:14,259 --> 00:24:16,440
但核心是超大规模云服务商

783
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:17,500
云公司

784
00:24:17,500 --> 00:24:20,579
亚马逊、谷歌、微软

785
00:24:20,579 --> 00:24:21,339
软银

786
00:24:21,339 --> 00:24:22,920
这类公司没错

787
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,579
这可能是下一波行情

788
00:24:26,490 --> 00:24:30,140
或许还要加入甲骨文

789
00:24:30,140 --> 00:24:31,279
甚至加入甲骨文

790
00:24:31,279 --> 00:24:32,640
不过我不看好他们的资产负债表

791
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:33,579
甲骨文太差了

792
00:24:33,579 --> 00:24:35,579
但还是把甲骨文算进去

793
00:24:35,579 --> 00:24:39,609
之后这些公司会爆发

794
00:24:39,609 --> 00:24:44,670
下一波行情将是软件股

795
00:24:44,670 --> 00:24:46,450
届时ServiceNow会崛起

796
00:24:46,450 --> 00:24:48,630
Salesforce甚至帕兰提尔

797
00:24:48,630 --> 00:24:50,490
这类股票将启动行情

798
00:24:50,490 --> 00:24:53,359
可能需要六个月到两年后

799
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:54,680
需记住这一点

800
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:55,460
你知道吗

801
00:24:55,460 --> 00:24:57,920
别对那些股票失去耐心

802
00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:58,420
没错

803
00:24:58,420 --> 00:25:00,509
我觉得它们明天就要大涨了

804
00:25:00,509 --> 00:25:01,309
可能会的

805
00:25:01,309 --> 00:25:02,930
但可能需要一段时间

806
00:25:02,930 --> 00:25:04,219
我们可能需要

807
00:25:04,219 --> 00:25:04,739
你知道的

808
00:25:04,739 --> 00:25:06,878
资金可能会从半导体板块流出

809
00:25:06,878 --> 00:25:09,679
在这一波强劲行情开始放缓后

810
00:25:09,679 --> 00:25:11,450
直接流入亚马逊

811
00:25:11,450 --> 00:25:13,549
更多流向谷歌和甲骨文

812
00:25:13,549 --> 00:25:14,710
嗯

813
00:25:14,990 --> 00:25:15,549
啊

814
00:25:15,549 --> 00:25:16,509
我漏掉了一家公司

815
00:25:16,509 --> 00:25:17,089
微软

816
00:25:17,089 --> 00:25:17,769
这类公司

817
00:25:17,769 --> 00:25:23,269
对然后资金会轮动到SaaS相关企业

818
00:25:23,269 --> 00:25:25,609
这就是整个轮动游戏

819
00:25:25,609 --> 00:25:27,289
从一个板块到下一个

820
00:25:27,289 --> 00:25:28,430
这就是关键点

821
00:25:28,430 --> 00:25:28,940
太

822
00:25:28,940 --> 00:25:31,200
这是二季度的盈利增长

823
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,640
三季度增长22%

824
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,269
四季度23.5%

825
00:25:36,269 --> 00:25:37,680
21%

826
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:38,319
是的

827
00:25:38,319 --> 00:25:38,599
不错

828
00:25:38,599 --> 00:25:41,559
我们确实处于半导体行情后期

829
00:25:41,559 --> 00:25:42,759
这一点毋庸置疑

830
00:25:42,759 --> 00:25:43,920
就我个人看法

831
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,180
我们是否进入第七局

832
00:25:46,180 --> 00:25:47,420
第八局或第九局

833
00:25:47,420 --> 00:25:48,140
你知道的

834
00:25:48,140 --> 00:25:49,170
我们可以讨论

835
00:25:49,170 --> 00:25:52,769
但我们仍处于半导体行情后期

836
00:25:52,769 --> 00:25:55,309
资金将开始准备轮动

837
00:25:55,309 --> 00:25:56,089
在我看来

838
00:25:56,089 --> 00:25:57,230
可能在夏季

839
00:25:57,230 --> 00:25:58,509
甚至秋季

840
00:25:58,509 --> 00:25:59,769
另外两个领域

841
00:25:59,769 --> 00:26:00,910
所以你知道的

842
00:26:00,910 --> 00:26:01,509
这是大戏

843
00:26:01,509 --> 00:26:04,220
我认为这为市场奠定了基础

844
00:26:04,220 --> 00:26:06,359
因为我认为进入本季度财报

845
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,659
但必须看到像美光这类股票的明显放缓

846
00:26:09,659 --> 00:26:11,558
像AMD等少数股票

847
00:26:11,558 --> 00:26:16,119
一旦这些股价动量出现大幅放缓

848
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,980
那时我们将开始转向其他领域

849
00:26:18,980 --> 00:26:19,319
逐渐

850
00:26:19,319 --> 00:26:20,420
但显然人们会说

851
00:26:20,420 --> 00:26:20,660
好的

852
00:26:20,660 --> 00:26:22,029
这些股票已经涨得差不多了

853
00:26:22,029 --> 00:26:25,039
但就目前而言，关于

854
00:26:25,039 --> 00:26:25,599
你知道的

855
00:26:25,599 --> 00:26:26,359
穆姆

856
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:27,460
以及这类股票

857
00:26:27,460 --> 00:26:29,119
我们都清楚财报会很好

858
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:30,599
但公司会怎么说

859
00:26:30,599 --> 00:26:31,220
展望未来

860
00:26:31,220 --> 00:26:33,000
考虑到所有宏观问题

861
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:34,109
全球性问题

862
00:26:34,109 --> 00:26:35,990
我认为到目前为止

863
00:26:35,990 --> 00:26:39,189
公司基本表示指引将维持不变

864
00:26:39,189 --> 00:26:40,949
我们认为盈利将改善

865
00:26:40,949 --> 00:26:42,528
运营利润率也在提升

866
00:26:42,528 --> 00:26:45,480
我认为这为市场提供了强劲动力

867
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:46,079
挺好的

868
00:26:46,079 --> 00:26:46,519
如果你有

869
00:26:46,519 --> 00:26:48,839
或许更广泛的乔什

870
00:26:48,839 --> 00:26:49,200
难道不是吗

871
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:49,920
我是说

872
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:54,269
显然科技股表现远超其他

873
00:26:54,269 --> 00:26:56,029
从三月低点以来的涨幅

874
00:26:56,029 --> 00:26:56,589
例如

875
00:26:56,589 --> 00:26:58,670
字母股上涨42%，亚马逊

876
00:26:58,670 --> 00:27:00,000
37%的英伟达

877
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:01,319
近20%等

878
00:27:01,319 --> 00:27:01,700
等等

879
00:27:01,700 --> 00:27:04,160
我们曾提到行业表现

880
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,720
科技和通信服务领涨

881
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:07,839
然而

882
00:27:07,839 --> 00:27:11,500
谷歌和亚马逊正受益于我之前提到的内容

883
00:27:11,500 --> 00:27:13,759
开始对

884
00:27:13,759 --> 00:27:14,160
你知道的

885
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:14,680
AWS

886
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:15,720
谷歌云

887
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,400
但呃

888
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,039
他们的芯片业务也引发兴奋

889
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:21,519
需记住这一点

890
00:27:21,519 --> 00:27:23,750
因此它们也是芯片受益股

891
00:27:23,750 --> 00:27:24,609
仅50

892
00:27:24,609 --> 00:27:30,150
目前标普成分股中仅3%位于50日和200日均线之上

893
00:27:30,150 --> 00:27:32,869
等权重标普500指数

894
00:27:32,869 --> 00:27:36,369
RSP已连续第九天下跌

895
00:27:36,369 --> 00:27:37,970
第十个交易日

896
00:27:37,970 --> 00:27:39,230
我们该如何解读这些数据

897
00:27:39,230 --> 00:27:43,694
如何将这些现象与市场现状联系起来

898
00:27:44,299 --> 00:27:44,660
是的

899
00:27:44,660 --> 00:27:45,420
我认为这是好的

900
00:27:45,420 --> 00:27:47,259
我认为这是一个很好的观察

901
00:27:47,259 --> 00:27:51,869
我认为人们需要了解不仅仅是‘好吧’这样的背景

902
00:27:51,869 --> 00:27:53,109
市场正在上涨

903
00:27:53,109 --> 00:27:55,009
但正值财报季

904
00:27:55,009 --> 00:27:59,630
我们早已知道 standout 业绩增长

905
00:27:59,630 --> 00:28:05,390
表现突出的公司主要集中在

906
00:28:05,390 --> 00:28:07,329
围绕 ai 资本支出主题

907
00:28:07,329 --> 00:28:09,029
这就是当前整个经济

908
00:28:09,029 --> 00:28:11,039
所以啊

909
00:28:11,039 --> 00:28:15,299
有时经济会因这种现象驱动

910
00:28:15,299 --> 00:28:16,259
这种现象

911
00:28:16,259 --> 00:28:18,109
有时是大幅减税

912
00:28:18,109 --> 00:28:19,210
有时是

913
00:28:19,210 --> 00:28:19,670
你知道的

914
00:28:19,670 --> 00:28:22,349
某种工业繁荣

915
00:28:22,349 --> 00:28:24,230
有时是房地产市场

916
00:28:24,230 --> 00:28:26,089
这就是 ai 资本支出的故事

917
00:28:26,089 --> 00:28:27,009
这就是现状

918
00:28:27,009 --> 00:28:30,009
这就是标普五百强排行榜

919
00:28:30,009 --> 00:28:31,630
大部分反映了

920
00:28:31,630 --> 00:28:34,630
并不意味着医疗板块没有上涨股票

921
00:28:34,630 --> 00:28:35,769
因为我们确实有

922
00:28:35,769 --> 00:28:39,930
也不意味着消费板块没有上涨股票

923
00:28:39,930 --> 00:28:40,750
因为我们确实有

924
00:28:40,750 --> 00:28:47,210
但绝大多数利润增长

925
00:28:47,210 --> 00:28:51,349
直接来自这些极端案例

926
00:28:51,349 --> 00:28:52,730
比如内存芯片股

927
00:28:52,730 --> 00:28:57,250
没人应该认为这种情况会再次一夜爆发

928
00:28:57,250 --> 00:28:59,089
但即使撇开这些不谈

929
00:28:59,089 --> 00:29:02,888
当你听到全球巨头的评论

930
00:29:02,888 --> 00:29:08,828
我们正经历这样一个时刻

931
00:29:08,828 --> 00:29:15,190
人们正在建设大型项目

932
00:29:15,190 --> 00:29:16,769
并将一些重要企业从科技领域抽离

933
00:29:16,769 --> 00:29:19,460
这就是业绩增长的驱动力

934
00:29:19,460 --> 00:29:21,039
这就是推动经济

935
00:29:21,039 --> 00:29:23,420
这就是激发投资者热情

936
00:29:23,420 --> 00:29:25,799
你描述的这种分化

937
00:29:25,799 --> 00:29:27,640
没有人应该对此感到意外

938
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:32,888
如果我们认为业绩是股价变动最关键因素

939
00:29:32,888 --> 00:29:36,308
这让某些人感到不安

940
00:29:36,308 --> 00:29:36,888
你知道的

941
00:29:36,888 --> 00:29:39,388
积极看多的朱利安·埃曼纽尔

942
00:29:39,388 --> 00:29:44,509
昨日收盘时标普与艾弗瑞合并并上调业绩预期

943
00:29:44,509 --> 00:29:44,949
但他表示

944
00:29:44,949 --> 00:29:47,440
当前市场存在许多相似之处

945
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,880
他看到的市场现象与99年类似

946
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:51,420
我说

947
00:29:51,420 --> 00:29:53,920
乔什谈到美光科技的情况

948
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,240
以及一些内存概念股

949
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:55,980
嗯

950
00:29:55,980 --> 00:29:57,319
今天再展示一下微米科技

951
00:29:57,319 --> 00:30:00,000
我是说几乎每天都是这样

952
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,230
今日涨幅12%

953
00:30:02,230 --> 00:30:03,210
嗯

954
00:30:03,210 --> 00:30:05,589
这不是普通英特尔

955
00:30:06,670 --> 00:30:08,880
你知道我有个朋友啊

956
00:30:09,559 --> 00:30:10,940
他认识他

957
00:30:10,940 --> 00:30:14,609
自从我可能拥有了一百五十万美元的投资组合

958
00:30:14,609 --> 00:30:16,049
总金额大概两百万美元

959
00:30:16,049 --> 00:30:16,410
你知道的

960
00:30:16,410 --> 00:30:19,049
如果当时把所有投资组合加起来

961
00:30:19,049 --> 00:30:21,548
这要追溯到二零一四年

962
00:30:21,548 --> 00:30:23,169
从二零一一年左右就认识他

963
00:30:23,169 --> 00:30:24,269
现在回想起来

964
00:30:24,269 --> 00:30:26,229
但并未成为密友

965
00:30:26,229 --> 00:30:27,509
比如二零一四年左右

966
00:30:27,509 --> 00:30:31,019
没错后来把他带入股市

967
00:30:31,019 --> 00:30:35,509
他在股市总是起起落落

968
00:30:35,509 --> 00:30:36,789
如果你有成功股票

969
00:30:36,789 --> 00:30:38,950
却过早全部卖出

970
00:30:38,950 --> 00:30:39,740
嗯

971
00:30:39,740 --> 00:30:40,900
做出了一些糟糕决定

972
00:30:40,900 --> 00:30:42,480
你知道完全退出市场

973
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,369
比如疫情期间

974
00:30:44,369 --> 00:30:45,289
然后重新入场

975
00:30:45,289 --> 00:30:46,849
大概六个月后开始回补

976
00:30:46,849 --> 00:30:47,549
九个月后恢复交易

977
00:30:47,549 --> 00:30:50,029
当时市场已出现V型强劲反弹

978
00:30:50,029 --> 00:30:53,140
他在股市一直有不错表现

979
00:30:53,140 --> 00:30:54,819
但不算特别突出

980
00:30:54,819 --> 00:30:57,380
因为他多年屡犯错误

981
00:30:57,380 --> 00:31:00,609
但他曾做了一笔最大投资

982
00:31:00,609 --> 00:31:01,349
你知道的

983
00:31:01,349 --> 00:31:05,339
几年前他投资了一家叫微米科技的公司

984
00:31:05,779 --> 00:31:09,059
现在估计已获利数百万美元

985
00:31:09,059 --> 00:31:09,779
此时此刻

986
00:31:09,779 --> 00:31:11,190
为他干杯

987
00:31:11,190 --> 00:31:12,069
没错为他干杯

988
00:31:12,069 --> 00:31:14,309
如今股市彻底改变了他的生活

989
00:31:14,309 --> 00:31:15,910
太不可思议了

990
00:31:15,910 --> 00:31:16,849
绝对令人惊叹

991
00:31:16,849 --> 00:31:19,029
英特尔不得不感到

992
00:31:19,029 --> 00:31:20,410
仿佛是

993
00:31:20,410 --> 00:31:21,250
如果不是

994
00:31:21,250 --> 00:31:24,409
这说明游戏中可以犯很多错误

995
00:31:24,409 --> 00:31:25,909
仍能赚取改变人生的钱

996
00:31:25,909 --> 00:31:26,689
他是个好例子

997
00:31:26,689 --> 00:31:27,409
他做了

998
00:31:27,409 --> 00:31:28,749
他犯过不少错误

999
00:31:28,749 --> 00:31:30,279
买入过大量差股

1000
00:31:30,279 --> 00:31:33,500
尝试过一些没奏效的疯狂期权策略

1001
00:31:33,500 --> 00:31:35,539
多年来他犯了很多错误

1002
00:31:35,539 --> 00:31:36,079
但兄弟

1003
00:31:36,079 --> 00:31:36,799
他坚持了下来

1004
00:31:36,799 --> 00:31:40,490
最终选对了股票并改变了人生

1005
00:31:40,490 --> 00:31:40,769
你知道的

1006
00:31:40,769 --> 00:31:41,250
就像我之前说的

1007
00:31:41,250 --> 00:31:41,910
我觉得他赚了

1008
00:31:41,910 --> 00:31:46,670
我估计在微交易中利润两到三百万

1009
00:31:46,670 --> 00:31:46,930
回来

1010
00:31:46,930 --> 00:31:47,690
持续了更长时间

1011
00:31:47,690 --> 00:31:49,369
所以这里涨了十四十四

1012
00:31:49,369 --> 00:31:50,210
但就像你知道的

1013
00:31:50,210 --> 00:31:50,569
我不知道

1014
00:31:50,569 --> 00:31:51,650
几年时间

1015
00:31:52,369 --> 00:31:55,769
英特尔在市场和投资圈中有一种感觉

1016
00:31:55,769 --> 00:31:58,769
这家公司处境艰难，紧贴着玻璃窗

1017
00:31:58,769 --> 00:32:00,619
永远进不了主流

1018
00:32:00,619 --> 00:32:02,279
政府入股

1019
00:32:02,279 --> 00:32:03,940
突然间这

1020
00:32:03,940 --> 00:32:06,200
现在变成了数据中心

1021
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,549
一个重大数据中心投资

1022
00:32:08,549 --> 00:32:12,250
我不知道该如何评价这一步棋

1023
00:32:12,250 --> 00:32:17,809
从四十到一百多美元一股

1024
00:32:17,809 --> 00:32:20,990
但这些是否需要标注时间点

1025
00:32:20,990 --> 00:32:23,289
因为我有收到消息说

1026
00:32:23,289 --> 00:32:26,019
这已经荒诞至极

1027
00:32:26,019 --> 00:32:27,660
结局不会好

1028
00:32:27,660 --> 00:32:32,500
我认为可以明确识别市场的某些区域

1029
00:32:32,500 --> 00:32:34,539
这个说法是准确的

1030
00:32:34,539 --> 00:32:37,619
市场确实存在过度投机

1031
00:32:37,619 --> 00:32:39,059
毫无疑问

1032
00:32:42,059 --> 00:32:45,240
股价大幅上涨或已上涨

1033
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:46,640
并不意味着就是泡沫

1034
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,140
一切都会崩盘

1035
00:32:48,140 --> 00:32:50,339
最终取决于未来盈利

1036
00:32:50,339 --> 00:32:51,299
好的

1037
00:32:52,180 --> 00:32:53,180
英特尔是个好例子

1038
00:32:53,180 --> 00:32:54,589
像英特尔股票

1039
00:32:54,589 --> 00:32:55,289
你知道的

1040
00:32:55,289 --> 00:32:57,190
我们可以辩论是否应该涨这么多

1041
00:32:57,190 --> 00:33:00,309
但人们相信英特尔基本面正在发生转变

1042
00:33:00,309 --> 00:33:03,170
这将对英特尔未来几年的盈利非常有利

1043
00:33:03,170 --> 00:33:05,089
人们关注的是过去十二个月的盈利

1044
00:33:05,089 --> 00:33:08,130
英特尔的过去十二个月盈利很糟糕

1045
00:33:08,130 --> 00:33:09,650
但股价超过一百美元

1046
00:33:09,650 --> 00:33:10,450
这太荒谬了

1047
00:33:10,450 --> 00:33:11,809
对吧兄弟

1048
00:33:11,809 --> 00:33:13,390
这不是股市运作方式

1049
00:33:13,390 --> 00:33:16,450
大家都在关注英特尔一年后的盈利

1050
00:33:16,450 --> 00:33:17,170
两年后

1051
00:33:17,170 --> 00:33:17,910
三年后

1052
00:33:17,910 --> 00:33:20,029
股市具有前瞻性

1053
00:33:21,349 --> 00:33:24,309
如果你在关注微观层面并像这样分析

1054
00:33:24,309 --> 00:33:24,950
天啊

1055
00:33:24,950 --> 00:33:26,029
看看这些股票涨了多少

1056
00:33:26,029 --> 00:33:26,829
你有没有看到

1057
00:33:26,829 --> 00:33:29,710
他们明年和后年可能的盈利情况

1058
00:33:29,710 --> 00:33:34,929
比如amd股价上涨就像泡沫

1059
00:33:34,929 --> 00:33:35,489
嗯

1060
00:33:35,489 --> 00:33:36,509
你知道吗

1061
00:33:36,509 --> 00:33:38,108
amd明年盈利会是多少

1062
00:33:38,108 --> 00:33:40,619
再下一年再下一年

1063
00:33:40,940 --> 00:33:41,579
你知道的

1064
00:33:41,579 --> 00:33:43,140
仅仅因为大幅上涨

1065
00:33:43,140 --> 00:33:43,339
难道不是吗

1066
00:33:43,339 --> 00:33:43,579
我是说

1067
00:33:43,579 --> 00:33:45,559
这就像亚马逊股票泡沫

1068
00:33:45,559 --> 00:33:48,719
我觉得我们调出亚马逊股票看看

1069
00:33:48,719 --> 00:33:49,159
对啊

1070
00:33:49,159 --> 00:33:50,098
长期来看没错

1071
00:33:50,098 --> 00:33:50,838
我们说

1072
00:33:50,838 --> 00:33:51,199
哦

1073
00:33:51,199 --> 00:33:51,838
亚马逊股票

1074
00:33:51,838 --> 00:33:52,759
所以画个泡沫图

1075
00:33:52,759 --> 00:33:53,239
呃

1076
00:33:53,239 --> 00:33:54,479
让我们保护自己像

1077
00:33:54,479 --> 00:33:56,490
你能怪亚马逊股票吗

1078
00:33:57,529 --> 00:33:58,390
我们继续吧

1079
00:33:58,390 --> 00:34:00,930
让我们调出亚马逊

1080
00:34:00,930 --> 00:34:02,289
亚马逊现在在哪儿

1081
00:34:02,289 --> 00:34:03,170
我错过什么了吗

1082
00:34:03,170 --> 00:34:04,390
他们都对的

1083
00:34:04,390 --> 00:34:05,049
亚马逊股票

1084
00:34:05,049 --> 00:34:10,699
自ipo以来上涨364000%

1085
00:34:10,699 --> 00:34:12,978
泡沫泡沫亚马逊

1086
00:34:12,978 --> 00:34:14,918
上涨364000%

1087
00:34:14,918 --> 00:34:16,389
这就是泡沫时刻

1088
00:34:16,389 --> 00:34:17,630
当时就应该说是泡沫

1089
00:34:17,630 --> 00:34:18,150
这里就是泡沫

1090
00:34:18,150 --> 00:34:18,630
这里就是泡沫

1091
00:34:18,630 --> 00:34:21,460
泡沫泡沫泡沫泡沫泡沫泡沫泡沫泡沫

1092
00:34:21,460 --> 00:34:22,139
它

1093
00:34:22,139 --> 00:34:24,280
关键在于未来盈利

1094
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:29,278
你对股价的看法和大幅上涨

1095
00:34:29,278 --> 00:34:30,418
并不意味着什么

1096
00:34:30,418 --> 00:34:32,778
完全毫无意义

1097
00:34:32,778 --> 00:34:35,389
唯一重要的是未来盈利

1098
00:34:35,389 --> 00:34:37,829
我认为是否存在合理的普遍预期

1099
00:34:37,829 --> 00:34:39,730
如果这些股票经历一段时期

1100
00:34:39,730 --> 00:34:40,730
然后你就知道了

1101
00:34:40,730 --> 00:34:41,670
三年后

1102
00:34:41,670 --> 00:34:42,269
四年之后

1103
00:34:42,269 --> 00:34:43,030
五年之后

1104
00:34:43,030 --> 00:34:44,708
当他们的收入暴跌时

1105
00:34:44,708 --> 00:34:47,028
这些股票也会随之暴跌

1106
00:34:47,028 --> 00:34:48,208
会跌到五十到六十

1107
00:34:48,208 --> 00:34:48,528
七十

1108
00:34:48,528 --> 00:34:49,650
八十个百分点

1109
00:34:49,650 --> 00:34:50,769
这就是会发生的情况

1110
00:34:50,769 --> 00:34:54,309
但他们的收入必须在投机阶段暴跌

1111
00:34:54,309 --> 00:34:57,510
不会像九十年代末那样严重

1112
00:34:57,510 --> 00:35:03,559
我认为现有的条件现在有利于环境

1113
00:35:03,559 --> 00:35:06,559
并允许这种收入增长，这些公司

1114
00:35:06,559 --> 00:35:10,559
七家公司进入人工智能领域

1115
00:35:10,559 --> 00:35:13,349
构建了极度现金充裕的

1116
00:35:13,349 --> 00:35:13,869
是的

1117
00:35:13,869 --> 00:35:17,528
这与九十年代的情况截然不同

1118
00:35:17,528 --> 00:35:19,809
现金存放在资产负债表上

1119
00:35:19,809 --> 00:35:24,969
这些现金可用于投资AI相关资本支出

1120
00:35:24,969 --> 00:35:28,530
我认为这显然是有利条件

1121
00:35:28,530 --> 00:35:29,070
当

1122
00:35:29,070 --> 00:35:30,849
当你进行比较时

1123
00:35:30,849 --> 00:35:34,250
大量资金正涌入这些公司

1124
00:35:34,250 --> 00:35:36,130
它们的增长率都在加速

1125
00:35:36,130 --> 00:35:39,550
即使是被最讨厌的Meta

1126
00:35:39,550 --> 00:35:41,449
你看到他们上季度的营收增长了吗

1127
00:35:41,449 --> 00:35:42,510
达到了三

1128
00:35:42,510 --> 00:35:44,269
一家公司增长三%

1129
00:35:44,269 --> 00:35:50,719
像Meta这样规模的公司营收增长三%简直令人震惊

1130
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:52,210
这太疯狂了

1131
00:35:52,210 --> 00:35:56,409
像Meta这样的巨型公司营收增长三%

1132
00:35:56,409 --> 00:35:58,420
我们在说什么

1133
00:35:58,420 --> 00:36:01,159
谷歌麦道加尔的增长率也在加速

1134
00:36:01,159 --> 00:36:03,050
亚马逊也是如此

1135
00:36:03,050 --> 00:36:04,690
所以请记住

1136
00:36:04,690 --> 00:36:06,130
这些公司正在加速增长

1137
00:36:06,130 --> 00:36:07,730
我们的增长率何时开始加速

1138
00:36:07,730 --> 00:36:08,090
我不知道

1139
00:36:08,090 --> 00:36:08,809
可能是一年后

1140
00:36:08,809 --> 00:36:10,050
可能三年后

1141
00:36:10,050 --> 00:36:10,889
四年之后

1142
00:36:10,889 --> 00:36:13,469
没错，当进入减速周期时

1143
00:36:13,469 --> 00:36:14,800
或开始准备时

1144
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:16,599
我们将面临这些股票的问题

1145
00:36:16,599 --> 00:36:18,500
但在加速阶段期间

1146
00:36:18,500 --> 00:36:20,519
就像九十年代末的狂欢

1147
00:36:20,519 --> 00:36:22,369
我认为这是不同情况

1148
00:36:22,369 --> 00:36:27,070
我认为大多数人喜欢做二元判断

1149
00:36:27,070 --> 00:36:27,599
好的

1150
00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:28,619
这是90年代

1151
00:36:28,619 --> 00:36:30,000
这不是90年代

1152
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,159
如果你的投资组合中有任何东西

1153
00:36:32,159 --> 00:36:35,480
你感觉可能与90年代有相似之处

1154
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,349
那么猜猜你被过度暴露了

1155
00:36:37,349 --> 00:36:39,610
但你沉醉于表现

1156
00:36:39,610 --> 00:36:40,510
例如

1157
00:36:40,510 --> 00:36:42,610
你知道对于管理etf的人来说

1158
00:36:42,610 --> 00:36:44,869
除了手被束缚外

1159
00:36:44,869 --> 00:36:47,210
你知道为了季度再平衡

1160
00:36:47,210 --> 00:36:51,889
当你持有jt中的微芯股时

1161
00:36:51,889 --> 00:36:56,480
你被迫坐在这里看着它暴涨

1162
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,780
明知无法改变

1163
00:36:58,780 --> 00:37:00,019
但如果你个人持有

1164
00:37:00,019 --> 00:37:02,000
你当然有更多的选择

1165
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:07,559
我想知道专业与普通人的思维差异

1166
00:37:07,559 --> 00:37:08,599
在这样的名字里

1167
00:37:08,599 --> 00:37:11,039
你会觉得我的答案很有趣

1168
00:37:11,039 --> 00:37:14,079
首先是五百家美国大型公司

1169
00:37:14,079 --> 00:37:19,079
可以认为资产负债表强度略有不同

1170
00:37:19,079 --> 00:37:21,280
波动水平也不同

1171
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,510
但当我观察时

1172
00:37:23,510 --> 00:37:24,849
我对自己说

1173
00:37:24,849 --> 00:37:25,409
好的

1174
00:37:25,409 --> 00:37:27,429
我们目前的敞口如何

1175
00:37:27,429 --> 00:37:29,619
我希望有更多的动量

1176
00:37:29,619 --> 00:37:32,159
我们稍微少一些质量更好

1177
00:37:32,159 --> 00:37:33,920
我们50%是动量

1178
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:35,239
我们50%是质量

1179
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:36,280
看看质量

1180
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:37,199
质量也一样

1181
00:37:37,199 --> 00:37:39,579
质量至今未被奖励

1182
00:37:39,579 --> 00:37:40,179
今年以来

1183
00:37:40,179 --> 00:37:40,880
质量在上涨

1184
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,900
我认为增长3%因为动量上涨近

1185
00:37:44,010 --> 00:37:48,039
这是因为资本商品爆发

1186
00:37:48,039 --> 00:37:49,599
区域pmm

1187
00:37:49,599 --> 00:37:51,889
超过55%

1188
00:37:51,889 --> 00:37:53,250
很久没见过了

1189
00:37:53,250 --> 00:37:58,349
这与AI、数据中心、电网和电力有关

1190
00:37:58,349 --> 00:38:00,409
我每天都在说

1191
00:38:00,409 --> 00:38:02,159
这就是动量所在

1192
00:38:02,159 --> 00:38:04,400
但这只是第二局

1193
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:05,860
你有亚马逊

1194
00:38:05,860 --> 00:38:07,679
谷歌和微软

1195
00:38:07,679 --> 00:38:08,659
以一点

1196
00:38:08,659 --> 00:38:11,789
三万亿美元的云业务 backlog

1197
00:38:11,789 --> 00:38:16,329
我们空仓一切，资金正在流入

1198
00:38:16,329 --> 00:38:18,250
这就是利润来源

1199
00:38:18,250 --> 00:38:19,650
所以我了解你在动量中

1200
00:38:19,650 --> 00:38:21,090
我觉得这很棒 五五分

1201
00:38:21,090 --> 00:38:25,099
我认为这个主题还处于非常早期阶段

1202
00:38:25,099 --> 00:38:27,929
而且你 我完全基于你说的内容

1203
00:38:27,929 --> 00:38:31,949
我应该调整到60:40或70:30的仓位

1204
00:38:31,949 --> 00:38:33,219
注重质量永远没错

1205
00:38:33,219 --> 00:38:33,760
不过不

1206
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:34,119
我不确定

1207
00:38:34,119 --> 00:38:34,880
我明白你的意思

1208
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,179
但斯科特在会上提出了个好问题

1209
00:38:37,179 --> 00:38:37,940
我们现在就在其中

1210
00:38:37,940 --> 00:38:42,590
你正在挑战自己能维持多久

1211
00:38:42,590 --> 00:38:47,000
如果当前环境持续不变

1212
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:50,079
那你可能需要60:40或70:30的仓位

1213
00:38:50,079 --> 00:38:51,420
这就是我们引用这些数据的原因

1214
00:38:51,420 --> 00:38:52,500
这些数字非常巨大

1215
00:38:52,500 --> 00:38:56,420
三大公司云业务 backlog 达1.3万亿美元

1216
00:38:56,420 --> 00:38:57,679
这规模惊人

1217
00:38:57,679 --> 00:38:59,420
未来还会更大

1218
00:38:59,420 --> 00:39:00,880
这才是更疯狂的地方

1219
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,639
大家都在关注汤姆的最新动态

1220
00:39:03,639 --> 00:39:07,820
市场表现得相当出色

1221
00:39:07,820 --> 00:39:12,550
过去四五周已超越地缘政治影响

1222
00:39:12,550 --> 00:39:14,150
完全按照剧本发展

1223
00:39:14,150 --> 00:39:17,269
正如你提到的其他地缘冲突案例

1224
00:39:17,269 --> 00:39:18,070
你知道的

1225
00:39:18,070 --> 00:39:19,019
市场已见底

1226
00:39:19,019 --> 00:39:20,880
在局势完全解决前

1227
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:24,460
现在市场经历强劲上涨后你怎么看

1228
00:39:24,460 --> 00:39:29,940
市场依赖镁七和半导体支撑

1229
00:39:30,539 --> 00:39:31,219
嗯

1230
00:39:31,219 --> 00:39:31,539
你知道的

1231
00:39:31,539 --> 00:39:35,019
我认为股票的风险收益比仍不错

1232
00:39:35,019 --> 00:39:35,699
嗯

1233
00:39:35,699 --> 00:39:38,650
我知道战争仍充满变数

1234
00:39:38,650 --> 00:39:43,409
但战争也凸显了美国的全球优势

1235
00:39:43,409 --> 00:39:43,849
你知道的

1236
00:39:43,849 --> 00:39:46,780
盈利预期反而在上升

1237
00:39:46,780 --> 00:39:48,820
随着财报季推进

1238
00:39:48,820 --> 00:39:50,980
美国在AI领域处于领先地位

1239
00:39:50,980 --> 00:39:53,710
这种生产力提升意义重大

1240
00:39:53,710 --> 00:39:55,429
我认为这是关键驱动力之一

1241
00:39:55,429 --> 00:39:56,289
不仅推动GDP增长

1242
00:39:56,289 --> 00:39:59,250
也是美国企业韧性的重要原因

1243
00:39:59,250 --> 00:40:01,510
我知道有很多投资者

1244
00:40:01,510 --> 00:40:04,869
所以中东局势昨天突然紧张

1245
00:40:04,869 --> 00:40:08,389
没错 人们普遍认为

1246
00:40:08,389 --> 00:40:08,628
哦

1247
00:40:08,628 --> 00:40:10,739
市场会对此恐慌

1248
00:40:10,980 --> 00:40:13,679
如果你看过我主频道的视频

1249
00:40:13,679 --> 00:40:18,068
没错 在这个频道我之前怎么分析中东局势

1250
00:40:18,068 --> 00:40:22,980
我一个月前就告诉你，我们已经度过了最危险的部分

1251
00:40:22,980 --> 00:40:25,000
就在T先生谈到的时候

1252
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:25,539
清除它

1253
00:40:25,539 --> 00:40:27,460
像这样的文明已达巅峰

1254
00:40:27,460 --> 00:40:29,420
恐惧和我之前就说过

1255
00:40:29,420 --> 00:40:31,900
市场已经不再在意这些了

1256
00:40:31,900 --> 00:40:32,840
这是过去的事了

1257
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:34,000
你已经经历了巅峰期

1258
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:34,179
恐惧

1259
00:40:34,179 --> 00:40:35,139
这无关紧要

1260
00:40:35,139 --> 00:40:35,639
会发生什么

1261
00:40:35,639 --> 00:40:36,820
它会直接穿透过去

1262
00:40:36,820 --> 00:40:40,028
每次发生事情时我们看到的正是这种情况

1263
00:40:40,028 --> 00:40:41,188
所有这些都发生了

1264
00:40:41,188 --> 00:40:41,789
那件事发生了

1265
00:40:41,789 --> 00:40:43,909
市场直接穿透过去

1266
00:40:43,909 --> 00:40:45,230
直接穿透过去

1267
00:40:45,230 --> 00:40:46,349
所以嗯

1268
00:40:46,349 --> 00:40:46,829
你知道的

1269
00:40:46,829 --> 00:40:49,289
理解市场如何运作至关重要

1270
00:40:49,289 --> 00:40:51,849
因此我认为战争仍存变数

1271
00:40:51,849 --> 00:40:55,190
而且显然这将是一场持久战

1272
00:40:55,190 --> 00:40:58,469
但我认为股市仍有利好因素

1273
00:40:58,469 --> 00:40:58,690
实际上

1274
00:40:58,690 --> 00:40:59,550
当我们度过

1275
00:40:59,550 --> 00:41:06,099
五月并进入七月时，你提到的盈利预期上升无疑是事实

1276
00:41:06,099 --> 00:41:07,320
尽管再次

1277
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:07,559
这确实

1278
00:41:07,559 --> 00:41:09,960
主要集中在AI主题上

1279
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:14,170
并在半导体及其他资本受益领域

1280
00:41:14,170 --> 00:41:18,219
因此市场已聚焦于这一主导主题

1281
00:41:18,219 --> 00:41:19,019
我正在观察

1282
00:41:19,019 --> 00:41:20,559
我始终关注消费者

1283
00:41:20,559 --> 00:41:21,699
可选消费等权重

1284
00:41:21,699 --> 00:41:23,280
目前比高点低9%

1285
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:23,500
没错

1286
00:41:23,500 --> 00:41:27,719
这正是战争带来的经济摩擦显现之处

1287
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:28,420
所以这是

1288
00:41:28,420 --> 00:41:32,539
好的，这是否是市场持续向你的目标前进的公式

1289
00:41:32,539 --> 00:41:34,099
你的目标更高

1290
00:41:34,820 --> 00:41:35,500
嗯我说

1291
00:41:35,500 --> 00:41:37,880
我认为其中一个原因是

1292
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:44,639
之所以显得集中，是因为AI故事是全球生产力故事

1293
00:41:44,639 --> 00:41:53,739
没错，AI正在创造实际提升生产力的单元，帮助工人产出更多甚至替代工人

1294
00:41:53,739 --> 00:41:55,239
在某些国家

1295
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:58,599
主要发生在美

1296
00:41:58,599 --> 00:42:00,199
国和中国

1297
00:42:00,199 --> 00:42:04,710
因此我不意外看到美

1298
00:42:04,710 --> 00:42:08,309
国公司在此中 disproportionately 获益

1299
00:42:08,309 --> 00:42:10,690
因为这在欧洲并未发生

1300
00:42:10,690 --> 00:42:13,710
所以我大概会预期这种浓度

1301
00:42:13,710 --> 00:42:15,349
不过嗯

1302
00:42:15,349 --> 00:42:15,728
你知道的

1303
00:42:15,728 --> 00:42:16,369
就比如像

1304
00:42:16,369 --> 00:42:18,628
今年晚些时候高油价带来的影响

1305
00:42:18,628 --> 00:42:19,809
我我你知道的

1306
00:42:19,809 --> 00:42:21,028
我认为这是负面后果

1307
00:42:21,028 --> 00:42:25,009
我认为这引发了关于美联储能做什么的问题

1308
00:42:27,369 --> 00:42:28,048
这就是为什么

1309
00:42:28,048 --> 00:42:31,840
我认为今年晚些时候市场可能面临这一考验

1310
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,940
但目前我认为这只是财报和故事

1311
00:42:35,139 --> 00:42:35,980
艾什莉

1312
00:42:35,980 --> 00:42:36,940
你喜欢我们

1313
00:42:36,940 --> 00:42:38,340
周五的软件汤姆

1314
00:42:38,340 --> 00:42:40,489
你将其列为顶级板块推荐

1315
00:42:40,489 --> 00:42:40,889
有没有

1316
00:42:40,889 --> 00:42:42,009
财报季有什么消息

1317
00:42:42,009 --> 00:42:44,088
或许来自微软的报告

1318
00:42:44,088 --> 00:42:47,960
我的意思是许多软件公司发布了消息，你有没有听到具体哪条

1319
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,500
让你对这个板块更有信心

1320
00:42:51,429 --> 00:42:55,389
我认为软件领域显而易见的一点是

1321
00:42:55,389 --> 00:42:59,920
我知道投资者正确地认为应该质疑

1322
00:42:59,920 --> 00:43:03,309
这些软件模式的持久性

1323
00:43:03,550 --> 00:43:07,989
但许多公司管理得当且会适应变化

1324
00:43:07,989 --> 00:43:14,090
因此形成了投资者质疑未来盈利的下调故事

1325
00:43:14,090 --> 00:43:16,429
但现在我认为风险收益比相当有利

1326
00:43:16,429 --> 00:43:20,250
所以我认为对于优质公司和最佳企业

1327
00:43:20,250 --> 00:43:22,570
这是极佳的风险收益比

1328
00:43:24,340 --> 00:43:27,320
嘿汤姆刚看到最新头条

1329
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:27,800
你知道的

1330
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,440
股指因这则新闻大幅上涨

1331
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,940
再次来自伊朗新闻机构的消息

1332
00:43:32,940 --> 00:43:34,920
两枚导弹击中一艘船

1333
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:35,320
一

1334
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,409
艘美国

1335
00:43:37,409 --> 00:43:39,329
在海湾的军舰

1336
00:43:39,329 --> 00:43:39,670
你怎么看

1337
00:43:39,670 --> 00:43:43,150
显然我们仍在快速反应

1338
00:43:43,150 --> 00:43:45,230
但期货市场因此消息大幅下跌

1339
00:43:45,230 --> 00:43:47,170
期货下跌375点

1340
00:43:47,170 --> 00:43:49,139
标普期货下跌40点

1341
00:43:49,139 --> 00:43:51,940
你怎么看待这些头条

1342
00:43:52,789 --> 00:43:53,389
嗯

1343
00:43:53,389 --> 00:43:53,748
我的意思是

1344
00:43:53,748 --> 00:43:54,489
我并不意外

1345
00:43:54,489 --> 00:43:58,329
短期内市场会以避险方式反应

1346
00:43:58,329 --> 00:43:58,949
嗯

1347
00:43:58,949 --> 00:43:59,509
贝基·奎克

1348
00:43:59,509 --> 00:44:00,760
存在已久

1349
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:01,900
好久不见

1350
00:44:01,900 --> 00:44:03,019
她一直在CBC

1351
00:44:03,019 --> 00:44:04,960
自从我当初进入市场以来

1352
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:05,858
哦等等

1353
00:44:05,858 --> 00:44:06,478
你知道的

1354
00:44:06,478 --> 00:44:06,938
我不清楚

1355
00:44:06,938 --> 00:44:08,099
我记得贝基·奎克

1356
00:44:08,099 --> 00:44:11,659
甚至在早期她就在那个网络平台了对吧

1357
00:44:12,340 --> 00:44:13,079
贝基·奎克

1358
00:44:13,079 --> 00:44:18,840
已经在网络平台待了很久了，我想在那次崩盘期间

1359
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:20,400
我们正在经历金融危机

1360
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,760
我觉得道指当时不到一万点

1361
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,000
我想当时就是这样

1362
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:27,960
我觉得她在网络平台待得太久了都忘了

1363
00:44:29,599 --> 00:44:32,030
四百点根本不算什么

1364
00:44:32,030 --> 00:44:33,400
当年根本不算事

1365
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:35,440
四百点的波动简直疯狂

1366
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:35,599
哦

1367
00:44:35,599 --> 00:44:36,179
天啊

1368
00:44:36,179 --> 00:44:37,639
当时下跌了四百点

1369
00:44:37,639 --> 00:44:39,000
期货直接跌了四百点

1370
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:40,500
简直疯狂，当时就像

1371
00:44:40,500 --> 00:44:41,920
天啊

1372
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:44,579
道指现在有五万点

1373
00:44:44,579 --> 00:44:47,969
现在四百点的波动相当于多少

1374
00:44:47,969 --> 00:44:49,050
下跌了8%

1375
00:44:49,050 --> 00:44:52,369
简直微不足道，市场波动点数

1376
00:44:52,369 --> 00:44:54,938
市场毫无理由下跌8%

1377
00:44:55,139 --> 00:44:58,579
道指要真正大幅波动

1378
00:44:58,579 --> 00:44:59,418
大幅波动

1379
00:44:59,418 --> 00:45:01,458
现在必须跌一千点

1380
00:45:01,458 --> 00:45:04,849
至少得上下一千点

1381
00:45:06,210 --> 00:45:09,429
市场波动根本不算事

1382
00:45:09,429 --> 00:45:11,409
下次市场崩盘时

1383
00:45:11,409 --> 00:45:12,730
真正的崩盘

1384
00:45:12,730 --> 00:45:13,570
兄弟

1385
00:45:13,570 --> 00:45:14,909
你会看到那样的日子

1386
00:45:14,909 --> 00:45:15,510
你会醒来

1387
00:45:15,510 --> 00:45:18,829
道指一天下跌四千点

1388
00:45:19,610 --> 00:45:23,800
四千点很合理，因为这加剧了战争迷雾

1389
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:28,179
但如果退一步看

1390
00:45:28,179 --> 00:45:29,559
嗯

1391
00:45:30,119 --> 00:45:32,639
我觉得我们都在适应这个想法

1392
00:45:32,639 --> 00:45:34,260
这将是一场持久战

1393
00:45:34,260 --> 00:45:37,530
我知道这会影响油价

1394
00:45:37,530 --> 00:45:39,730
我们一直在向客户撰文分析

1395
00:45:39,730 --> 00:45:41,449
我们的客户都在困惑

1396
00:45:41,449 --> 00:45:45,650
今天期货市场油价存在

1397
00:45:45,650 --> 00:45:48,429
但似乎不反映现实

1398
00:45:48,429 --> 00:45:48,969
这里

1399
00:45:48,969 --> 00:45:49,349
你知道吗

1400
00:45:49,349 --> 00:45:50,750
正在出现严重短缺

1401
00:45:50,750 --> 00:45:52,829
最终价格必须做出反应

1402
00:45:52,829 --> 00:45:54,760
所以啊

1403
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:57,949
现阶段这对我来说非常令人印象深刻

1404
00:45:57,949 --> 00:46:00,050
市场能够看透这一点

1405
00:46:00,050 --> 00:46:01,590
这也是原因之一

1406
00:46:01,590 --> 00:46:05,840
我们的基准预期是市场将上探标普七千三百点

1407
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,880
但我认为今年晚些时候可能会出现一次清算

1408
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:11,599
这在一定程度上是因为美联储面临考验

1409
00:46:11,599 --> 00:46:12,199
新任美联储

1410
00:46:12,199 --> 00:46:14,018
另一方面是

1411
00:46:14,018 --> 00:46:15,918
市场试图调和石油短缺问题

1412
00:46:15,918 --> 00:46:20,170
而期货价格并未真正反映这一短缺

1413
00:46:20,170 --> 00:46:20,710
是的

1414
00:46:20,710 --> 00:46:20,929
我说

1415
00:46:20,929 --> 00:46:25,530
我知道你一直持有观点认为可能会出现超常规模

1416
00:46:25,530 --> 00:46:26,250
换句话说

1417
00:46:26,250 --> 00:46:29,099
年内某时可能出现一次修正

1418
00:46:29,099 --> 00:46:31,480
也想听听你认为

1419
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:31,940
你知道的

1420
00:46:31,940 --> 00:46:34,900
部分投资者仍持观望态度且配置不足

1421
00:46:34,900 --> 00:46:36,119
在本轮 rally 后

1422
00:46:36,119 --> 00:46:37,920
我们已重回历史新高

1423
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:38,920
这就是你观察到的

1424
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:39,820
货币市场基金

1425
00:46:39,820 --> 00:46:42,188
目前货币市场基金规模约为

1426
00:46:42,588 --> 00:46:43,768
八万亿美元以上

1427
00:46:43,768 --> 00:46:46,980
最近检查数据显示仍在增长

1428
00:46:48,219 --> 00:46:50,500
免费资金持续涌入啊

1429
00:46:50,500 --> 00:46:53,429
特别是零售投资者

1430
00:46:53,429 --> 00:46:54,550
然后这些资金该如何处理

1431
00:46:54,550 --> 00:46:55,849
就一直放在那里

1432
00:46:55,849 --> 00:46:59,809
不久就会累积到十万亿

1433
00:46:59,809 --> 00:47:02,909
或者取出部分资金买入股票

1434
00:47:02,909 --> 00:47:04,269
他们显得有些

1435
00:47:04,269 --> 00:47:04,750
呃

1436
00:47:04,750 --> 00:47:05,030
你知道的

1437
00:47:05,030 --> 00:47:06,389
被这波行情打乱节奏

1438
00:47:06,389 --> 00:47:09,110
这也符合我观察到的情况

1439
00:47:09,110 --> 00:47:10,929
在低位附近出现抛售

1440
00:47:10,929 --> 00:47:12,170
新闻持续压制他们

1441
00:47:12,170 --> 00:47:13,929
当前局势如何

1442
00:47:14,579 --> 00:47:15,300
呃

1443
00:47:15,300 --> 00:47:15,780
你知道的

1444
00:47:15,780 --> 00:47:17,199
我觉得我们仍然

1445
00:47:17,199 --> 00:47:17,860
呃

1446
00:47:17,860 --> 00:47:22,119
当我们审视投资者配置时2026年显得异常

1447
00:47:22,119 --> 00:47:26,670
因为以往回调期间零售投资者都是稳定买家

1448
00:47:26,670 --> 00:47:29,949
但今年他们却在低位抛售

1449
00:47:29,949 --> 00:47:32,730
市场上仍有大量现金处于观望状态

1450
00:47:32,730 --> 00:47:34,730
市场情绪依然非常低迷

1451
00:47:34,730 --> 00:47:37,269
在与客户们的交流和调查中

1452
00:47:37,269 --> 00:47:39,230
我们仍能看到谨慎的投资布局

1453
00:47:39,230 --> 00:47:43,889
我认为今天的回调最终会被买入

1454
00:47:43,889 --> 00:47:44,650
再次强调

1455
00:47:44,650 --> 00:47:45,710
基本面未充分反映

1456
00:47:45,710 --> 00:47:49,050
市场底层结构是良好的业绩

1457
00:47:49,050 --> 00:47:52,539
人工智能相关需求可见度提升

1458
00:47:52,539 --> 00:47:56,300
如果能源价格和其他压力影响企业利润率

1459
00:47:56,300 --> 00:47:57,860
导致企业利润承压

1460
00:47:57,860 --> 00:48:02,710
我认为投资者会在此低点买入

1461
00:48:02,710 --> 00:48:03,590
很高兴和你交谈

1462
00:48:03,590 --> 00:48:04,789
下次再联系

1463
00:48:04,789 --> 00:48:05,739
很快

1464
00:48:05,739 --> 00:48:07,500
每位高净值朋友

1465
00:48:07,500 --> 00:48:09,739
我认识的都有太多现金

1466
00:48:09,739 --> 00:48:14,530
我觉得没有一个不持有过多现金

1467
00:48:14,530 --> 00:48:17,889
我认为每位高净值朋友

1468
00:48:17,889 --> 00:48:21,389
我认识的都有太多现金

1469
00:48:21,389 --> 00:48:21,789
嗯

1470
00:48:21,789 --> 00:48:23,230
他们在市场中配置不足

1471
00:48:23,230 --> 00:48:25,150
所以

1472
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:27,539
请理性看待

1473
00:48:27,539 --> 00:48:29,039
感谢大家一如既往的参与

1474
00:48:29,039 --> 00:48:29,880
非常感谢大家的到来

1475
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:31,550
如果您想申请加入私密群组

1476
00:48:31,550 --> 00:48:33,230
今日下方将置顶提示

1477
00:48:33,230 --> 00:48:34,110
加入我们后

1478
00:48:34,110 --> 00:48:36,898
我们将发送私密群组会员卡

1479
00:48:36,898 --> 00:48:37,639
哦

1480
00:48:37,639 --> 00:48:40,998
我们将发送价值千倍的会员卡

1481
00:48:40,998 --> 00:48:41,699
加入后

1482
00:48:41,699 --> 00:48:42,858
这是2024年版

1483
00:48:42,858 --> 00:48:44,159
2026年版本

1484
00:48:44,159 --> 00:48:45,818
它们会更好

1485
00:48:45,818 --> 00:48:48,769
如果您选择终身加入

1486
00:48:48,769 --> 00:48:50,769
我们将发送黑卡

1487
00:48:50,769 --> 00:48:52,969
终身会员卡

1488
00:48:52,969 --> 00:48:53,510
哦

1489
00:48:53,510 --> 00:48:54,949
这张太精美了

1490
00:48:54,949 --> 00:48:56,510
然后您可以拥有全部三张

1491
00:48:56,510 --> 00:48:56,670
各位

1492
00:48:56,670 --> 00:48:57,349
非常感谢

1493
00:48:57,349 --> 00:48:58,760
爱你们，祝大家天天愉快

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