这下挂在树杈上了！NaNa说美股(2026.06.22)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是6月22号周一

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欧洲这一约热浪滚滚

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只能全天用手机热点死蹭哈

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那苹果手机烫得像个暖手宝

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所以我还得每隔几小时就要给他休息

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吹空调降温

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像伺候大爷一样的伺候他

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咱这也算是克服困难坚守岗位了

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这个长周末归来呢

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盘前市场情绪还挺乐观

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贬义谈判取得进展

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让多头跃跃欲试

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可是开盘仅半个小时

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在没有任何突发利空的情况下

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情绪呢突然急剧逆转

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股指掉头快速跳水

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当时盘面上唯一的异动就是日元急跌

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毕竟1986年以来的历史最低水平

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随后日元跌幅收窄

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市场强烈怀疑

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日本政府暗地里出手干预了

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有传闻称

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日本财务省呢眼看这个日元跌的太惨

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交易员们猜测

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日本为了拯救日元

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可能需要抛售美元或者美债呃

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甚至不排除未来进一步加息

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所以提前要给美国老大哥打好招呼

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由于美国金融市场里面有天量的流动性

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与日元套利交易深度绑定

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所以这个日元踩踏风险

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直接就引发了美股日内的获利回吐

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与美债收益率的飙升

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但是这只是表象

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我更怀疑呢

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这是养老金等长线巨头

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在提前进行季度末的砸盘再平衡

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上周五视频里我们曾提到

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6月底临近

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养老金等大型基金

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面临着高达数百亿美元的固定债平衡卖压

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摩根大通更指出

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如果算上全球股票的话

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那这个卖压将会高达1650亿美元

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如此庞大的体量

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机构绝对不可能等到最后一天才执行的

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本周提前就分批出货

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分部检查完全在情理之中

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标普板与纳指收跌

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导致在传统板块的护盘下呢小幅收涨

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科技股走势分化

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谷歌亚马逊那几个老巨头大跌

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沦为纳子杀手

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网红

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这个航天股SPACEX直接带崩了整个航天航空板块

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软件板块呢继续在低谷吃翔

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地缘政治方面迎来了实质性转折

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美一首轮比尔根三或这个会谈已经结束了

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哈进展远超市场预期

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美国副总统万斯发言称

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霍尔木兹海峡已经重新开放

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美伊双方已经建立了维持海峡畅通的长效机制

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伊朗已同意邀请国际原子能机构检察员回访

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黎巴嫩

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局势方面

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万斯表示

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希望确保各方保持适当协调嗯

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伊朗外长阿拉格奇也证实

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会谈取得重大进展

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针对伊朗石油的制裁呢已经被豁免

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部分海外冻结资产获得解冻

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一项针对伊朗的重大重建计划已经启动调解夫

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称进展令人鼓舞

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虽然现实中

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霍尔木兹海峡的船舶其实依然这个拥堵嗯

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在周六短暂放开之后

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周日至今又再度关闭了

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但是呢原有市场已经跌麻了

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制裁豁免预期之下

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伊朗原油正疯狂涌入全球市场

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过去一周内

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据说有超过3000万桶原油正在运往亚洲

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嗯地源溢价的快速消退哈

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成了今天大宗商品市场的重头戏

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目前标普500指数呢仍运行在10日均线上方

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短期多头趋势虽然没有被彻底破坏

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但是指数的微跌

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掩盖了个股跌幅惊心动魄的现实

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上周FMC会议释放了鹰派信号

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当时市场反应挺平淡的哈

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现在看来

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上猪的瓶颈也许只是因为35日天量期权到期

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锁住了这个波动率

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而随着本周一

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这些期权合约的束缚被解除

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市场可以更自由地移动

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波动呢就被放大

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美联储鹰派转向夏季

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流动性清淡

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缺乏场外资金接盘

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季度末

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养老金卖股买债的调仓压力

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以及科技巨头们最近疯狂的发债与受股潮

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这些多重因素导致了市场流动性边际正在收紧

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这里需要重点提一下巨头们的分款圈钱行动

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摩根三利在月初的时候就曾预测呃

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今年全球AI相关债券的发行规模将会接近期

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5700亿美元

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同比直接翻倍

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就连那个富得流油

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根本不缺钱的英伟达

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上周也发行了

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高达250亿美元的投资及债券

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那个space x更是刚IPO上市

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立即就发债200亿美元哈

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这个市场其实传递了一种很不好的信号

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就是这些巨头们似乎也在急着要赶在利率上升

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或者市场流动性枯竭之前

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要把钱先圈到手

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这对这个未来短期市场其实是个负面信号

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高盛主经济三的数据呢也印证了机构的恐慌

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就在上周

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对冲基金五周来首次净卖出全球股票

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其中北美和欧洲市场的卖出量最大

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卖空与做多规模比呢为1.3比一

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除了亚洲发达市场之外

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所有呃主要地区都是静脉出

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虽然波动率指数VIX目前仍保持在20以下

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暗示市场目前呢还属于健康的逢低买入环境

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并没有出现这个恐慌性避险

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但是VIX的重心哈正在逐步抬升

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所以未来几个交易日

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我们极有可能看到维斯突然冲高

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个股方面

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谷歌今天遭遇了重挫

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原因呢使公司两位大佬离职跳槽

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谷歌工程副总裁兼GEMINIAI模型联合负责人

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Norm shua

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他跳槽到OpenAI

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还有DeepMind

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高级研究科学家

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诺贝尔奖得主john jumper

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他呢转头去了onto pick

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这俩人的离去哈

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直接就动摇了市场对谷歌GEMINI追赶XZBT

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以及这个谷歌在生物AI领域前沿研发的信心嗯

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作为反击

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谷歌风投创始人bill morris

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他在播客中放狠话威胁

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如果谷歌要打价格战

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将token价格砍掉80%

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谷歌能够呃承受得起

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但是OpenAI与ONTOPPK的商业模式呢

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将会直接崩溃

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当然了

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这只是口头警告哈

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别挖人

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挖的太过分了

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但实际上谷歌不敢真的这么做的

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因为这就无异于亲手掀翻整个华尔街的AI

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财富牌桌嘛

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其实高管离职与价格战的言论只是表象哈

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谷歌的股价暴跌

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底层逻辑还是公司嗯

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原本的轻资产

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现金奶牛传统叙事的幻灭

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自从去年10月以来

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谷歌通过债权和股权

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疯狂的融资了一千四百十亿美元

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资本支出的飙升呢

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直接导致他的自有现金流就腰斩了嗯

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华尔街甚至讽刺这一帮老牌的科技巨头啊

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正在沦为航空公司式的这个重资产密集型企业

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如果这时候呃

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这些巨头们的收入端真的去打价格战

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那这一些天文数字般的AI投入

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究竟要等到猴年马月才能够回本呀

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股价呢再次呃测试这个年限支撑哈

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从美股最新的行业格局图表来看

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整个AI板块其实撕裂非常严重

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卖铲子的那些存储半导体疯狂吸血

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股价就涨个不停

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而买单的四大云服务商亚马逊

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微软meta

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谷歌呢成了源源不断输血的冤大头

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股价就跌得惨不忍睹

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这种有巨额资本支出堆积起来的分歧

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正在变得越来越不可持续哈

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什么时候这个巨额资本支出嗯开始放缓了

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转向了

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那就可能立即就会颠覆微软

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这个真的是有毒啊

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云大厂跌它更跌

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软件跌呢它也跟跌

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大盘跌了

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它更是带头下跌

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而大盘涨的时候

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它却走独立行情继续跌

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所以股价已经连续13个交易日

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运行在10日均线下方了

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量化基金的机械性抛售痕迹极其明显哈

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这绝对不是散户这个卖出来的这个走势

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在这些卖盘释放完毕之前呢

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就拉不起来

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为了自救

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微软也加入了价格战的这个试探

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上周推出copilot call work智能体

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深圳成本比cloud cowork呃

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便宜了30%到40%

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甚至放风考虑托管lipstick呃

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这个中国的顶级开源模型

213
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来进一步极限压低成本

214
00:09:18,990 --> 00:09:21,958
其实无论是微软这个说辞

215
00:09:21,958 --> 00:09:23,879
还是谷歌那个价格

216
00:09:23,879 --> 00:09:25,918
这样威胁其实都是试探哈

217
00:09:25,918 --> 00:09:27,919
他们绝对没有胆子这么做

218
00:09:27,919 --> 00:09:29,960
超级网红股SPACEX

219
00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,539
股价呢连续三个交易日大幅回调

220
00:09:32,539 --> 00:09:36,519
今天尾盘最后一小时更是由于流通盘稀少

221
00:09:36,519 --> 00:09:38,279
引发了流动性踩踏

222
00:09:38,279 --> 00:09:41,870
跌幅从10%迅速扩大到16.4%

223
00:09:41,870 --> 00:09:45,330
顺便就把整个太空概念板块全部拖下水

224
00:09:45,330 --> 00:09:50,850
尽管公司公告称与开源AI初创公司reflection AI

225
00:09:50,850 --> 00:09:54,600
达成了最高63亿美元的算力大单呃

226
00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:58,460
reflection每个月向space x支付1.5亿美元

227
00:09:58,460 --> 00:10:01,119
换取GB300的使用权

228
00:10:01,119 --> 00:10:03,259
但是细看合同条款

229
00:10:03,259 --> 00:10:03,958
三个月后

230
00:10:03,958 --> 00:10:08,009
任何一方都可以提前90天无损失种植合同

231
00:10:08,009 --> 00:10:10,250
所以像这种软约束的合同

232
00:10:10,250 --> 00:10:12,690
含金量其实是大打折扣的

233
00:10:12,690 --> 00:10:16,779
更致命的是open hammer的补刀报告哈

234
00:10:16,779 --> 00:10:18,519
他预计到2031年

235
00:10:18,519 --> 00:10:21,899
s space x的净债务将会因为激进扩张

236
00:10:21,899 --> 00:10:24,220
激增4000多亿美元

237
00:10:24,220 --> 00:10:27,679
这几乎是目前甲骨文账面债务的三倍多

238
00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,919
这一份报告出来就加剧了恐慌性抛售

239
00:10:30,919 --> 00:10:33,389
导致资金盘中呢疯狂出逃

240
00:10:33,389 --> 00:10:37,350
之前在是股价大涨的时候吸血其他太空概念股

241
00:10:37,350 --> 00:10:41,269
现在它跌了又拖累整个太空概念板块普遍走低

242
00:10:41,269 --> 00:10:44,350
如今美股的抱团行情太严重了哈

243
00:10:44,350 --> 00:10:46,269
资金全都集中在存储

244
00:10:46,269 --> 00:10:48,980
关东信英特尔那些最拥挤的地方

245
00:10:48,980 --> 00:10:52,200
其他板块就只能够偶尔被翻翻牌子

246
00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,179
不过space x也不用太担心

247
00:10:55,179 --> 00:10:57,850
如果它急跌连跌暴跌的话

248
00:10:57,850 --> 00:10:58,090
呃

249
00:10:58,090 --> 00:11:01,649
基于这个月底他要加入那个副词

250
00:11:01,649 --> 00:11:04,070
罗素指数还有15个交易日内

251
00:11:04,070 --> 00:11:06,309
加入那个纳值100嗯

252
00:11:06,309 --> 00:11:09,070
短期趋势它还是有炒作机会的哈

253
00:11:09,070 --> 00:11:10,710
根据高盛的数据呢

254
00:11:10,710 --> 00:11:14,839
现在全美科技股的持仓虽然逼近5年高点啊

255
00:11:19,169 --> 00:11:22,409
资金正在进行极其残酷的结构性轮动

256
00:11:22,409 --> 00:11:25,299
就是企巨头进一步向半导体

257
00:11:25,299 --> 00:11:30,730
存储以及亚洲芯片制造商等AI生态最底层抱团

258
00:11:30,730 --> 00:11:34,629
整个美股市场其实就变得头重脚轻

259
00:11:34,629 --> 00:11:36,070
杠杆率极高

260
00:11:36,070 --> 00:11:38,409
波动性呢被成倍的放大

261
00:11:38,409 --> 00:11:40,549
今天量子板块逆势上涨

262
00:11:40,549 --> 00:11:43,440
盘后川普在白宫聚焦量子技术

263
00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,379
未来的这个签约仪式上

264
00:11:45,379 --> 00:11:48,099
高调公开赞扬IBMCEO

265
00:11:48,099 --> 00:11:50,818
明天量子板块大概率要直接起飞了哈

266
00:11:50,818 --> 00:11:54,139
川普这一次呢签署了两项强力行政令

267
00:11:54,139 --> 00:11:55,549
目标非常的激进

268
00:11:59,830 --> 00:12:01,649
全功能量子计算机

269
00:12:01,649 --> 00:12:06,249
二呢是2031年前要求所有联邦机构将呃

270
00:12:06,249 --> 00:12:10,928
计算机系统全面迁移至后量子密码体系

271
00:12:10,928 --> 00:12:15,559
就防止政府数据未来被量子计算机轻易解密嗯

272
00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:20,470
这个盘后谷歌CEOINFQCEO等行业巨头

273
00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,440
由于这些量子小盘股

274
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:28,240
最近呢都经历了一波深度回调哈

275
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,068
在大盘风险来临

276
00:12:30,068 --> 00:12:32,548
大资金撤退的背景之下

277
00:12:32,548 --> 00:12:34,989
场内残留的一些游资

278
00:12:34,989 --> 00:12:37,679
就很喜欢利用这种政策利好

279
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,700
来炒作小市值的股票

280
00:12:39,700 --> 00:12:42,750
以此呢维持这个市场表面的活跃度

281
00:12:42,750 --> 00:12:45,389
英特尔股价今天逆势大涨5.2%

282
00:12:45,389 --> 00:12:46,370
再创新高

283
00:12:46,370 --> 00:12:47,289
消息面上

284
00:12:47,289 --> 00:12:48,570
有媒体爆料

285
00:12:48,570 --> 00:12:52,528
就英特尔已经与联电达成了深度合作

286
00:12:52,528 --> 00:12:55,129
将会在英特尔亚历桑那州工厂

287
00:12:55,129 --> 00:12:58,549
共同开发12NM和3NM先进工艺

288
00:12:58,549 --> 00:13:01,610
联手对台积电发起正面挑战

289
00:13:01,610 --> 00:13:02,730
受此刺激

290
00:13:02,730 --> 00:13:06,149
联电今年股价也疯狂跳涨了14.2%

291
00:13:06,149 --> 00:13:10,149
视觉内容公司GETRY这个股价

292
00:13:10,149 --> 00:13:12,909
今天盘前一度飙升了近300%

293
00:13:12,909 --> 00:13:14,779
收盘涨90%

294
00:13:14,779 --> 00:13:19,259
公司宣布与OpenAI达成内容授权协议

295
00:13:19,259 --> 00:13:24,240
嗯它的海量图库呢将会直接引入叉GBT存储

296
00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:25,360
持续强势

297
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,159
美光科技今天又涨了6.8%

298
00:13:28,159 --> 00:13:31,919
公司auto pick达成了恒改内存架构设计

299
00:13:31,919 --> 00:13:35,370
以及cloud企业级应用的全面战略协议

300
00:13:35,370 --> 00:13:38,889
华尔街在他财报前疯狂上调目标价哈

301
00:13:38,889 --> 00:13:41,330
推动看涨情绪进一步扩大

302
00:13:41,330 --> 00:13:44,429
只有瑞银分析师泼冷水

303
00:13:44,429 --> 00:13:46,230
建议投资者保持谨慎

304
00:13:46,230 --> 00:13:49,210
理由呢是当资金流向变得狭窄

305
00:13:49,210 --> 00:13:50,889
生产行管度疲弱

306
00:13:50,889 --> 00:13:52,350
杠杆水平升高

307
00:13:52,350 --> 00:13:53,789
情绪一边倒

308
00:13:53,789 --> 00:13:55,840
而且持有这些资产的理由

309
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,539
就越来越变成一种自我强化的循环时

310
00:13:59,539 --> 00:14:02,980
通常这并不是继续追加风险的时候

311
00:14:03,299 --> 00:14:06,200
闪迪今天也跳空大涨超4%

312
00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:09,980
他的最新专利揭示了一项激进的存储革命

313
00:14:09,980 --> 00:14:14,960
就是将多核处理器与烂闪存直接建和构建

314
00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:15,899
3D堆叠

315
00:14:15,899 --> 00:14:20,269
直接就把那个昂贵的HBM降格为辅助角色

316
00:14:20,269 --> 00:14:24,590
试图从根本上解决HBM的容量天花板和延迟

317
00:14:24,590 --> 00:14:26,178
通电技术面

318
00:14:26,178 --> 00:14:31,318
其实这种分析在天量资金面前彻底失效哈

319
00:14:31,318 --> 00:14:33,048
但是呢呃说实话

320
00:14:33,048 --> 00:14:36,589
股价之力也不再是散户追高加仓的良机了

321
00:14:36,589 --> 00:14:37,408
持有可以

322
00:14:37,408 --> 00:14:39,828
但是也要把这个止损线提高

323
00:14:39,828 --> 00:14:42,548
现在就属于撑死胆大的

324
00:14:42,548 --> 00:14:44,740
饿死胆小的搏杀阶段

325
00:14:44,740 --> 00:14:47,620
这里必须要给SK海力士送上掌声

326
00:14:47,620 --> 00:14:50,480
今天这一家曾经负债140亿美元

327
00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,309
数次濒临破产的韩国企业

328
00:14:53,309 --> 00:14:55,470
凭借他在HBM领域

329
00:14:55,470 --> 00:14:57,970
59%的绝对市场份额

330
00:14:57,970 --> 00:15:00,549
完成了商业史上最震撼的逆袭哈

331
00:15:00,549 --> 00:15:04,080
今天盘中市值正式一度超越了三星电子

332
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,470
26年来首次登顶韩国市值一哥

333
00:15:09,789 --> 00:15:11,850
刚加入纳值100的COVIVE

334
00:15:11,850 --> 00:15:13,149
在前期冲高后呢

335
00:15:13,149 --> 00:15:14,500
今天大幅回落

336
00:15:14,500 --> 00:15:18,259
甲骨文这里也回到了本轮起涨点嗯

337
00:15:18,259 --> 00:15:21,909
机构发布的一份研究报告指出哈

338
00:15:21,909 --> 00:15:22,889
今年一季度

339
00:15:22,889 --> 00:15:25,370
受多重现实因素制约

340
00:15:25,370 --> 00:15:28,669
美国数据中心建设节奏呢明显放缓

341
00:15:28,669 --> 00:15:31,070
部分项目甚至陷入了停滞

342
00:15:31,070 --> 00:15:32,710
其实这也不是什么新闻

343
00:15:32,710 --> 00:15:33,470
上个月

344
00:15:33,470 --> 00:15:37,399
摩根大通利用卫星图像分析的报告更毒辣

345
00:15:37,399 --> 00:15:41,100
那些计划在2027年完工的数据中心项目中

346
00:15:41,100 --> 00:15:43,850
超过60%甚至都还没有开工

347
00:15:43,850 --> 00:15:46,690
另外有7%已经明确延误了

348
00:15:46,690 --> 00:15:51,659
AI的宏大狂欢呢撞上了物理世界的坚硬墙壁

349
00:15:51,659 --> 00:15:52,840
电网瓶颈

350
00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:56,159
燃气轮机和变压器交付周期漫长

351
00:15:56,159 --> 00:15:58,629
建设许可卡壳熟练

352
00:15:58,629 --> 00:16:00,470
劳动力严重短缺

353
00:16:00,470 --> 00:16:04,039
这数据中心企业的债务已经堆到天上去了

354
00:16:04,039 --> 00:16:07,320
芯片折旧的计时器呢每天都在倒计时

355
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,460
一旦他们的订单兑现

356
00:16:09,460 --> 00:16:11,359
因为基建而推迟的话

357
00:16:11,359 --> 00:16:14,599
那些高昂的利息可是一分钱都不能少

358
00:16:14,599 --> 00:16:16,078
给或者是晚给的

359
00:16:16,078 --> 00:16:20,179
这一部分的执行分险正在被市场重新定价

360
00:16:20,179 --> 00:16:22,139
导致这个股价一直下跌

361
00:16:22,139 --> 00:16:24,120
奈一菲最近日子也不好过

362
00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:25,299
Google deep mind

363
00:16:25,299 --> 00:16:28,720
今天呢宣布与独立电影工作室A24

364
00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:30,139
达成战略合作

365
00:16:30,139 --> 00:16:31,399
并且完成投资

366
00:16:31,399 --> 00:16:33,799
致力于将前沿AI技术

367
00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:37,009
直接引入影视内容创作的核心流程

368
00:16:37,009 --> 00:16:41,409
AI对影视制作圈的这个颠覆不是未来的科幻了

369
00:16:41,409 --> 00:16:43,019
而是正在发生的现实

370
00:16:43,019 --> 00:16:45,720
那作为传统流媒体巨头的奈飞

371
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:49,480
正面临着技术降维打击的巨大潜在冲击

372
00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:53,149
而且呃这个公司也不被川普待见哈

373
00:16:53,149 --> 00:16:54,610
在川普任期内

374
00:16:54,610 --> 00:16:59,019
估计呃奈飞还是得继续低调做人行

375
00:16:59,019 --> 00:17:00,700
今天我们就说到这里

376
00:17:00,700 --> 00:17:02,419
那我们明天见拜拜

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