BV1K3jC6kEPk · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:11,179 --> 00:00:12,220 欢迎最新杂牌组合 2 00:00:12,220 --> 00:00:12,859 完整积分榜 3 00:00:12,859 --> 00:00:13,779 我上线了并画了粉笔气球 4 00:00:13,779 --> 00:00:15,039 我们有长期的傻瓜 5 00:00:15,039 --> 00:00:16,620 里克·米纳雷斯和路·怀特曼 6 00:00:16,620 --> 00:00:21,730 为一级隐藏股数据库中的前十股票打1到10分 7 00:00:21,730 --> 00:00:23,809 这是台湾半导体的股票代码 8 00:00:23,809 --> 00:00:27,769 用TM评分衡量台湾半导体的业务实力 9 00:00:27,769 --> 00:00:30,370 包括行业和竞争因素 10 00:00:30,370 --> 00:00:32,030 十分是无敌 11 00:00:32,030 --> 00:00:33,460 一分是绝望 12 00:00:33,460 --> 00:00:35,780 你们俩都有很多 13 00:00:35,780 --> 00:00:36,299 是的 14 00:00:36,299 --> 00:00:39,439 这就是全球主导的芯片制造商 15 00:00:39,439 --> 00:00:41,780 台积电生产驱动 16 00:00:41,780 --> 00:00:44,840 AI革命和更多产品的芯片 17 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:46,039 但重点就在这里 18 00:00:46,039 --> 00:00:48,439 现在我们谈谈这里的Snap测试 19 00:00:48,439 --> 00:00:52,079 很难想到有哪家科技公司比 20 00:00:52,079 --> 00:00:56,689 制造让英伟达和苹果成为可能的组件 21 00:00:56,689 --> 00:00:58,590 这显然是其优势 22 00:00:58,590 --> 00:01:00,700 所以这里不给十分呢，因为 23 00:01:00,700 --> 00:01:04,909 公司位于台湾且面临地缘政治紧张 24 00:01:04,909 --> 00:01:07,950 我不完全确定Snap测试是否假设性 25 00:01:07,950 --> 00:01:12,539 这里需要考虑地缘政治风险 26 00:01:13,259 --> 00:01:15,179 也因为地理位置因素 27 00:01:15,179 --> 00:01:15,918 许多政府 28 00:01:15,918 --> 00:01:19,759 包括美国在内正在推进多元化投资 29 00:01:19,759 --> 00:01:21,198 这有利于台积电 30 00:01:21,198 --> 00:01:22,530 因为他们正在合作 31 00:01:22,530 --> 00:01:25,030 但也催生了新竞争对手 32 00:01:25,030 --> 00:01:25,769 归根结底 33 00:01:25,769 --> 00:01:26,849 卓越的业务 34 00:01:26,849 --> 00:01:28,049 但非绝对安全 35 00:01:28,049 --> 00:01:28,879 固有属性 36 00:01:28,879 --> 00:01:30,040 我也打八分 37 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,060 还有其他芯片制造商 38 00:01:31,060 --> 00:01:32,719 而台积电则是 39 00:01:32,719 --> 00:01:35,219 全球最大晶圆厂不断刷新标准 40 00:01:35,219 --> 00:01:38,879 2nm纳米晶体管是新一代焦点 41 00:01:38,879 --> 00:01:42,400 下一代热门手机和AI加速器 42 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:44,319 AI正在重塑叙事 43 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,239 其中之一是半导体的周期性 44 00:01:47,239 --> 00:01:48,140 繁荣确实存在 45 00:01:48,140 --> 00:01:51,200 台积电至少还有几年增长期 46 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:51,939 明确增长 47 00:01:51,939 --> 00:01:53,430 管理团队八分 48 00:01:53,430 --> 00:01:54,790 十分是巴菲特 49 00:01:54,790 --> 00:01:55,629 一分是霍默 50 00:01:55,629 --> 00:01:56,549 辛普森 51 00:01:56,549 --> 00:01:58,730 里克有个八分 52 00:01:58,730 --> 00:01:59,590 你有九分 53 00:01:59,590 --> 00:02:00,109 是啊 54 00:02:00,109 --> 00:02:00,450 我是说 55 00:02:00,450 --> 00:02:03,450 CCI自1998年起就在公司任职 56 00:02:03,450 --> 00:02:05,420 2018年成为ceo 57 00:02:05,420 --> 00:02:09,219 大部分现代历史在他的领导下都很精彩 58 00:02:09,219 --> 00:02:10,900 在他的指导下 59 00:02:12,259 --> 00:02:13,610 之前说过 60 00:02:13,610 --> 00:02:15,509 这就是他所做的 61 00:02:15,509 --> 00:02:17,849 只是让他更像里克 62 00:02:17,849 --> 00:02:18,169 他说的 63 00:02:18,169 --> 00:02:19,129 不仅仅是一家芯片制造商 64 00:02:19,129 --> 00:02:20,310 但作为芯片制造商 65 00:02:20,310 --> 00:02:21,110 早期阶段 66 00:02:21,110 --> 00:02:22,229 与苹果关系密切 67 00:02:22,229 --> 00:02:24,280 与英伟达的当前关系 68 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:25,419 如果有什么缺点的话 69 00:02:25,419 --> 00:02:26,460 他已七十多岁 70 00:02:26,460 --> 00:02:28,360 看来他们准备得很充分 71 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:33,139 在继任方面他们已指定co cos um 72 00:02:33,139 --> 00:02:35,199 这两位都在公司待了数十年 73 00:02:35,199 --> 00:02:37,419 所以这里有很多连续性 74 00:02:37,419 --> 00:02:38,080 我认为 75 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:42,199 但确实是个好故事 76 00:02:42,199 --> 00:02:42,939 一个九分 77 00:02:42,939 --> 00:02:43,699 或许十分 78 00:02:43,699 --> 00:02:44,770 如果他五十岁 79 00:02:44,770 --> 00:02:45,169 是啊 80 00:02:45,169 --> 00:02:47,490 所以我给了八分，再次 81 00:02:47,490 --> 00:02:49,389 显然你说的一切都是真的 82 00:02:49,389 --> 00:02:50,849 正如曼达洛人所说 83 00:02:50,849 --> 00:02:51,409 当你在寻找 84 00:02:51,409 --> 00:02:51,949 像一个伟大的 85 00:02:51,949 --> 00:02:53,409 呃 86 00:02:53,409 --> 00:02:55,030 Tack或甚至半导体在你 87 00:02:55,030 --> 00:02:55,930 这就是方式 88 00:02:55,930 --> 00:02:56,509 嗯 89 00:02:56,509 --> 00:02:58,150 但我想指出两点 90 00:02:58,150 --> 00:02:59,610 一是路易 91 00:02:59,610 --> 00:03:00,330 指出方式 92 00:03:00,330 --> 00:03:00,729 他 93 00:03:00,729 --> 00:03:01,030 只是 94 00:03:01,030 --> 00:03:04,590 他今年七十岁，管理有方 95 00:03:04,590 --> 00:03:06,060 但不仅仅是这样 96 00:03:06,060 --> 00:03:07,139 看看董事会 97 00:03:07,139 --> 00:03:07,520 呃 98 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:09,900 台积电大部分董事都七十多岁或八十岁 99 00:03:09,900 --> 00:03:11,439 董事会中十人之一 100 00:03:11,439 --> 00:03:13,610 董事会中最年轻的是六十八岁以下 101 00:03:13,610 --> 00:03:14,789 这不是年龄歧视 102 00:03:14,789 --> 00:03:16,550 我这里盐和胡椒都有不少 103 00:03:16,550 --> 00:03:18,129 我不是在否定自己 104 00:03:18,129 --> 00:03:20,860 每个公司都需要一些经验沉淀 105 00:03:20,860 --> 00:03:22,520 但你也需要年轻人 106 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:22,900 呃 107 00:03:22,900 --> 00:03:24,340 需要有新思维的人 108 00:03:24,340 --> 00:03:26,400 我想反驳的另一个观点是 109 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:27,300 呃 110 00:03:27,300 --> 00:03:27,780 你知道的 111 00:03:27,780 --> 00:03:30,400 亚利桑那州计划中出现了一些文化冲突问题 112 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:31,159 查一下就知道了 113 00:03:31,159 --> 00:03:31,979 你可能会放弃这个 114 00:03:31,979 --> 00:03:32,900 这也算一分 115 00:03:32,900 --> 00:03:34,750 财务方面得八分 116 00:03:34,750 --> 00:03:36,490 十分就是坚不可摧 117 00:03:36,490 --> 00:03:37,909 一分真是吓人 118 00:03:37,909 --> 00:03:38,610 Rxit 119 00:03:38,610 --> 00:03:39,409 八分左右 120 00:03:39,409 --> 00:03:40,300 你得九分 121 00:03:40,300 --> 00:03:40,800 是啊 122 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:41,939 他今天一直很兴奋 123 00:03:41,939 --> 00:03:44,599 但我觉得这个业务值得 124 00:03:44,599 --> 00:03:45,009 呃 125 00:03:45,009 --> 00:03:47,490 最新季度净利润增长58% 126 00:03:47,490 --> 00:03:48,959 营收增长40% 127 00:03:48,959 --> 00:03:51,859 我们总希望利润增速快于营收 128 00:03:51,859 --> 00:03:53,639 但这也太夸张了 129 00:03:53,639 --> 00:03:54,579 在这样的水平 130 00:03:54,579 --> 00:03:56,840 毛利率达到66% 131 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,319 预测显示没有放缓迹象 132 00:04:00,319 --> 00:04:01,759 资产负债表状况良好 133 00:04:01,759 --> 00:04:02,280 一大堆 134 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:06,719 现金远超债务，且债务多用于资本设备 135 00:04:06,719 --> 00:04:07,800 呃超过 136 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:08,360 你知道的 137 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:12,860 长期来看现金流在万亿级别 138 00:04:12,860 --> 00:04:14,840 我知道AI在推高一切 139 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,339 这些数字需要适当备注 140 00:04:17,339 --> 00:04:19,019 但砍掉一半 141 00:04:19,019 --> 00:04:21,189 依然非常出色 142 00:04:21,189 --> 00:04:21,689 是的 143 00:04:21,689 --> 00:04:26,069 台积电正朝着年营收增长超30%迈进 144 00:04:26,069 --> 00:04:27,829 过去五年第四次达成 145 00:04:27,829 --> 00:04:28,910 这太棒了 146 00:04:28,910 --> 00:04:30,850 净利润增长更快 147 00:04:30,850 --> 00:04:33,649 别把台积电当大宗商品股 148 00:04:33,649 --> 00:04:35,009 我来反驳一下 149 00:04:35,009 --> 00:04:36,269 找我一个大宗商品股 150 00:04:36,269 --> 00:04:39,579 找到一个营收一美元净利四到五美分的 151 00:04:39,579 --> 00:04:40,740 我八分就拿下了 152 00:04:40,740 --> 00:04:41,259 好的 153 00:04:41,259 --> 00:04:41,620 里克 154 00:04:41,620 --> 00:04:42,740 我们来谈谈估值 155 00:04:42,740 --> 00:04:43,310 然后 156 00:04:46,149 --> 00:04:47,470 它的安全性如何 157 00:04:47,470 --> 00:04:47,850 当然没问题 158 00:04:47,850 --> 00:04:49,060 这就像彩票 159 00:04:49,060 --> 00:04:49,339 是的 160 00:04:49,339 --> 00:04:51,540 所以我只配置了5%到10%的五年增长预期 161 00:04:51,540 --> 00:04:55,639 台积电在五月以股价一年内翻倍入场 162 00:04:55,639 --> 00:04:58,829 这必然会引发估值担忧 163 00:04:58,829 --> 00:05:00,709 股票历史并不便宜 164 00:05:00,709 --> 00:05:03,970 但营收增长远超预期 165 00:05:03,970 --> 00:05:05,569 比历史数据更夸张 166 00:05:05,569 --> 00:05:08,930 为台积电的新增长周期支付溢价 167 00:05:08,930 --> 00:05:12,158 但投资者年化收益预计温和增长5%-10% 168 00:05:12,158 --> 00:05:14,759 我对台积电的安全评分更有信心（7分） 169 00:05:14,759 --> 00:05:15,158 呃 170 00:05:15,158 --> 00:05:17,439 资产负债表有超百亿美元现金 171 00:05:17,439 --> 00:05:18,579 这家公司啊 172 00:05:18,579 --> 00:05:19,480 就像安全气囊 173 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,540 床垫包裹在气泡膜中 174 00:05:21,540 --> 00:05:22,439 我选择了定投策略 175 00:05:22,439 --> 00:05:22,899 嗯 176 00:05:22,899 --> 00:05:25,160 正如我说的不全是AI 177 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,470 但AI是核心因素 178 00:05:27,470 --> 00:05:28,569 还有个问题 179 00:05:28,569 --> 00:05:30,089 这繁荣能持续多久 180 00:05:30,089 --> 00:05:31,129 尤其 181 00:05:31,129 --> 00:05:32,889 增长还能持续多久 182 00:05:32,889 --> 00:05:34,800 即使暂时平台期 183 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,000 我们还能从这里增长多久 184 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:38,920 我认为有潜力 185 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:40,199 我预估10%-15% 186 00:05:40,199 --> 00:05:41,360 这将是市场赢家 187 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,040 但不会成为市场破坏者 188 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:45,860 这属于安全考量 189 00:05:45,860 --> 00:05:46,920 我稍低一点 190 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:47,779 我给6分 191 00:05:47,779 --> 00:05:52,569 我不确定地缘政治风险 192 00:05:52,569 --> 00:05:55,329 但感觉真实存在且影响判断 193 00:05:55,329 --> 00:05:56,490 可能低估了风险 194 00:05:56,490 --> 00:05:57,408 但打6分 195 00:05:57,408 --> 00:05:59,309 感谢卢和里克 196 00:05:59,309 --> 00:06:03,749 他们给台积电打出7分高分 197 00:06:03,749 --> 00:06:07,279 里克更倾向ASML 198 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:12,220 卢可能更看好ASML 199 00:06:12,220 --> 00:06:15,500 每日七点更新新榜单 200 00:06:15,500 --> 00:06:16,339 M东部 201 00:06:16,339 --> 00:06:20,660 接下来是达美航空，暂且穿上 202 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,819 所以这是一个很棒的YouTube节目创意 203 00:06:30,819 --> 00:06:36,449 像这样用ASMR讨论ASML真是太好了 204 00:06:37,730 --> 00:06:39,649 这很棒
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