【Financial Education】这只股票现在正是买入时机‼️

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在股市中，有时候坚持就是胜利

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尤其是在局势极度混乱的时候

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外面有些事情值得在这里讨论

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视频开头部分

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现在要向大家展示总持仓数

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谈谈一些我预期会强劲反弹的股票

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与那些可能面临更大挑战的股票对比

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所以在视频开头部分

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接下来要分析甲骨文财报

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这能反映我的观点

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甲骨文股票情况

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财报结果几个小时前刚公布

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我将分享一些观点看法

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汤姆·莱温在CNBC几小时前

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发表了他对市场的看法

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众所周知

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汤姆·李通常有很高预期

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我想对此做出回应

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期待分享我的观点和见解

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然后是埃迪·亚恩尼

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他九小时前在彭博社发表观点

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我想回应他的发言

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并就此表达我的看法

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我只需要你们一件事

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如果你们不介意的话

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如果能帮我点个赞

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这就是我需要的

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你们不需要给我两美元吃泡面

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虽然我很感激

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有一位订阅者给我两美元

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他说

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给杰里米送一碗泡面

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我非常感谢

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谢谢你的两美元

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我非常感激

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但你们不必这样做

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好的

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如果你

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如果你能点个赞

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就够了

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我需要一个点赞

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这对我很重要

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另外请订阅我们的频道

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非常重要

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他们他们嗯年龄

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昨晚直接限制了主频道视频

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毫无理由

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这也是原因之一

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所以请订阅频道

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否则你看不到视频

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如果你还没订阅

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你知道的

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而且你不喜欢十八岁以上和那些内容

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 blah blah

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整个情况简直荒谬

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不过话说回来

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呃

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那里正在发生这些事

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好吧已经听到了

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女士们先生们

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我有重要消息要告诉大家

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好的

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在股票市场

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你会经历某些特定时期

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这关乎坚守阵地

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不是关于赚钱

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我觉得过去几个月

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只是关于守住阵地

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在你的投资组合中做到最好对吧

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当然过去几个月

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这不是风险偏好市场

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我们都清楚看看比特币

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比特币总是会给你

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比特币是最好的风向标

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如果你是风险偏好型金融资产

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或者风险规避型对吧

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比特币

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你知道之前一百多两千

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现在大概七万八千左右

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但最近一度跌到六万

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从历史高点下跌了约50%

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这始终会告诉你

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你是风险偏好还是规避

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好的所以当你看到

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比特币

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在这样的市场下跌50%

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不是关于赚钱

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是关于坚守阵地不让投资组合

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陷入大幅波动

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好的所以当我查看公开账户

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你知道我今天早些在X上发了这个

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你知道我今天走势不错

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二万七千美元

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不知道收盘时是多少

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嗯

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你知道三点五

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接近三点

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六百万美元

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你知道我们只是在守住阵地

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现在就是这样

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市场处于风险抛售状态

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真是疯狂了

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世界上正在发生疯狂的事

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我们都清楚对吧

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所以关键就是坚守阵地

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不要慌张

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难道你知道这会怎样

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好的

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这会变成什么样

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这会变成

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如果我们遭遇崩盘

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比如

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好的

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这只是过程的一部分

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对吧 逢低买入

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别错过这些好机会

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好的meta

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有一只股票

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你知道我对meta短期内仍不抱太大期望

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我对亚马逊也是如此

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这两只股票都不例外

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但我对短期内非常看好

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原因在于这两只股票面临的担忧是

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疯狂的资本支出

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这将如何影响折旧

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这将如何影响未来收益

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不仅今年

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甚至几年前

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在未来

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短期内这些担忧尚未消除

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这只是持续存在的问题

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因此我对meta或亚马逊股票短期内不抱高期待

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你知道在短期内

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因为资本支出过于激进

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如果资本支出更适度

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这些股票走势会更稳健

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现在我们可能在讨论meta股价八百美元

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现在可能在讨论亚马逊两百五十美元

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等等

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等等

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等等

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但因为资本支出远超预期

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这就是这些股票在市场中滞后的原因

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总体而言

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对amd我短期内非常看好

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我必须非常明确这一点

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大约一个月后数据将至关重要

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或数据会非常强劲

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指引将非常令人兴奋

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然后接近四百五十美元

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发射台启动

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而且我觉得当你越接近

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越来越有炒作氛围

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要建一个amd股票仓位

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所以我的预期是amd可能

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你知道很快就会到275

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所以我非常看好

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你知道的

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显然如果整个市场经历大幅回调浪潮

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是的

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这是amd的阻力

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这是整个市场的回调压力

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但假设我们只是

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你知道我们已经度过了这种风险规避最严峻时期

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我认为amd短期将触及275

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我不是说几年后

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我说的是短期

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比如未来几个月的情况

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但我们将拭目以待

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接下来几个月我要做amd的看涨期权吗

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绝对不

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因为市场变化谁说得准

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谁知道中东局势会急剧恶化

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可能比我们预想的更严重影响更多国家

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就像谁也不知道会发生什么

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所以我不会押注十万美元在amd看涨期权

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仅仅因为我认为amd可能在几个月内涨到75

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不值得冒险

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我不想给自己增加这种压力

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可能会在期权上亏掉十万

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因为你知道特朗普这么做了

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或者某个国家这么做了

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或者诸如此类

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等等

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不

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非常感谢

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好的

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芝士蛋糕坊注意

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我犯了个错误

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我在蛋糕相关上犯了大错

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好的

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听着昨晚

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我在主频道做了视频

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介绍了十只股票

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如果我要从头建一个投资组合

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我会围绕这十只股票构建

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却忘了蛋糕

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重大失误

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听着蛋糕应该取代雅诗兰黛和伊丽莎白雅顿

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我超爱

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Yell's talk

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我们稍后在这里讨论

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但听我说蛋糕

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我更喜欢增长

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为了价值

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还有股息

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关于蛋糕

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那个本应被列入十大股票之一

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好的

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这是很多优质公司

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我喜欢

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但它更适合蛋糕

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好的

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未来几年表现更好

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所以我做到了

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我因未包含它而犯了错

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应该包含那个

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是的

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我应该包含耐克，它是其中之一

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这仅仅只是

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我的意思是

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其实只是

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你知道的

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股价一直低迷

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我对

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随着年份推进

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当看到中国数据见底

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我认为股票将获得更多动能

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所以我其实喜欢耐克

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大幅上涨

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嗯

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这只是今年

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他们必须证明所有市场见底

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他们已证明美国市场已复苏

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现在需证明欧洲正在回升

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然后具体是亚洲市场回升

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中国特定情况

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如果他们做到

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我们就成功了

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呃

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接下来是Salesforce CRM

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是的

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正如你所知

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我认为IGV已见底

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持有软件股

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除非最后冲刺

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纳斯达克继续下跌

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只要不发生

249
00:06:53,399 --> 00:06:55,250
CRM将从此上涨

250
00:06:55,250 --> 00:06:56,050
摄氏度

251
00:06:56,050 --> 00:06:56,350
四十

252
00:06:56,350 --> 00:06:57,329
六美元的股票

253
00:06:57,329 --> 00:06:58,350
钢铁交易

254
00:06:58,350 --> 00:06:59,529
这里六个百分点的波动

255
00:06:59,529 --> 00:06:59,930
上涨了一天

256
00:06:59,930 --> 00:07:01,288
股票中有十万美元

257
00:07:01,288 --> 00:07:01,629
是的

258
00:07:01,629 --> 00:07:03,649
那个不应该在四十区间交易

259
00:07:03,649 --> 00:07:04,968
真是愚蠢

260
00:07:04,968 --> 00:07:05,908
嗯哼

261
00:07:05,908 --> 00:07:07,488
不应该在四十区间交易

262
00:07:07,488 --> 00:07:08,288
艾斯特·劳德

263
00:07:08,288 --> 00:07:12,038
我喜欢那个，那个在未来几年将持续保持 momentum

264
00:07:12,038 --> 00:07:15,490
我认为未来几年会涨到两百到三百

265
00:07:15,490 --> 00:07:16,509
我们拭目以待

266
00:07:16,509 --> 00:07:17,089
在我看来

267
00:07:17,089 --> 00:07:19,529
未来几年收入将增长

268
00:07:19,529 --> 00:07:21,670
利润率和盈利能力将提升

269
00:07:21,670 --> 00:07:23,050
这就是三重利好

270
00:07:23,050 --> 00:07:25,540
因此我认为未来几年将充满机遇

271
00:07:25,540 --> 00:07:26,339
对于艾斯特·劳德

272
00:07:26,339 --> 00:07:27,839
去年收购的业务

273
00:07:27,839 --> 00:07:29,000
很久以前

274
00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:30,100
苍白

275
00:07:30,100 --> 00:07:32,000
苍白区间震荡

276
00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:33,769
听着，帕兰蒂尔

277
00:07:34,290 --> 00:07:36,410
就像我一年前告诉你们的

278
00:07:36,410 --> 00:07:37,269
没错

279
00:07:37,269 --> 00:07:37,970
帕兰蒂尔

280
00:07:37,970 --> 00:07:41,089
只是在一百二十五到两百之间徘徊

281
00:07:41,089 --> 00:07:42,490
这就是现状

282
00:07:42,490 --> 00:07:43,990
所以你知道的

283
00:07:43,990 --> 00:07:45,870
当人们非常看好多帕兰蒂尔时

284
00:07:45,870 --> 00:07:48,050
会将其推高到两百美元区间

285
00:07:48,050 --> 00:07:48,589
没错

286
00:07:48,589 --> 00:07:50,829
当人们非常看空帕兰蒂尔时

287
00:07:50,829 --> 00:07:52,279
会跌至一百二十五

288
00:07:52,279 --> 00:07:55,000
我认为这将持续多年

289
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:56,899
将在数年内保持稳定

290
00:07:56,899 --> 00:07:59,860
因为股价已充分反映预期

291
00:07:59,860 --> 00:08:00,800
表现如是

292
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:02,300
它已经定价为

293
00:08:02,300 --> 00:08:05,538
它已定价包含多年业务增长

294
00:08:05,538 --> 00:08:07,499
多年的业务增长

295
00:08:07,499 --> 00:08:08,959
这就是常态

296
00:08:08,959 --> 00:08:10,838
所以你知道，人们曾认为

297
00:08:10,838 --> 00:08:11,699
会涨到三百

298
00:08:11,699 --> 00:08:12,338
涨到四百

299
00:08:12,338 --> 00:08:13,168
去找它吧，不

300
00:08:13,168 --> 00:08:14,088
并非如此

301
00:08:14,088 --> 00:08:15,168
你知道无论怎样

302
00:08:15,168 --> 00:08:15,869
我希望如此

303
00:08:15,869 --> 00:08:17,649
我仍然持有其中一千股

304
00:08:17,649 --> 00:08:18,548
而且我有持仓

305
00:08:18,548 --> 00:08:19,848
Patreon投资组合

306
00:08:19,848 --> 00:08:22,250
但你知道这不过是白日梦

307
00:08:22,250 --> 00:08:22,910
就像噩梦一般

308
00:08:22,910 --> 00:08:25,470
关于那方面的营收增长率

309
00:08:25,470 --> 00:08:25,769
是啊

310
00:08:25,769 --> 00:08:26,569
营收增长率

311
00:08:26,569 --> 00:08:27,829
百分比将会开始下降

312
00:08:27,829 --> 00:08:28,490
阿佩拉纳

313
00:08:28,490 --> 00:08:31,079
他们正在做很多不听劝的人

314
00:08:31,079 --> 00:08:33,200
我在股市已有十七年多了

315
00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,940
你想让我告诉你股市如何运作吗

316
00:08:36,220 --> 00:08:39,679
股市走势基于营收增长率等因素

317
00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:40,840
这个百分比是否在增长

318
00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:43,789
作为增长型企业是否在下降

319
00:08:43,789 --> 00:08:45,889
而Palantir正是增长型企业

320
00:08:45,889 --> 00:08:49,129
营收增长率百分比开始下滑

321
00:08:49,490 --> 00:08:52,049
增长型投资者不会对此感兴趣

322
00:08:52,049 --> 00:08:54,849
你觉得英伟达现在怎么样

323
00:08:55,288 --> 00:08:57,568
为什么英伟达股价一直在区间震荡

324
00:08:57,568 --> 00:09:01,179
今日股价比去年夏天更低

325
00:09:01,179 --> 00:09:02,860
你知道去年夏天这支股票

326
00:09:02,860 --> 00:09:04,480
你知道高达一万八百二

327
00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:06,159
你知道今天股价更低了

328
00:09:06,159 --> 00:09:07,919
是英伟达数据不好吗

329
00:09:07,919 --> 00:09:09,200
是他们的未来有问题吗

330
00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:09,799
当然不是

331
00:09:09,799 --> 00:09:11,019
这和他们没关系

332
00:09:11,019 --> 00:09:12,899
真正影响英伟达的是

333
00:09:12,899 --> 00:09:16,700
具体来说是营收增长率百分比持续下滑

334
00:09:16,700 --> 00:09:19,129
未来几年还会继续下降

335
00:09:19,129 --> 00:09:21,980
这就是现实

336
00:09:21,980 --> 00:09:23,980
所以在这只股票上

337
00:09:23,980 --> 00:09:25,039
你将会看到这种情况

338
00:09:25,039 --> 00:09:25,679
逐渐显现

339
00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:26,679
所以你知道的

340
00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:27,320
定价过高

341
00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:28,399
就像英伟达几年前

342
00:09:28,399 --> 00:09:29,960
你知道一年前两年前

343
00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:31,240
已经被高估了

344
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,629
Adobe就是个例子

345
00:09:33,629 --> 00:09:36,009
他们只需持续发布良好财报

346
00:09:36,009 --> 00:09:37,590
每个季度小幅超预期

347
00:09:37,590 --> 00:09:38,889
股价就会反弹

348
00:09:38,889 --> 00:09:41,379
很快我们就会在PayPal上盈利

349
00:09:41,379 --> 00:09:43,480
你知道PayPal就是这样

350
00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,940
我认为有很多公司可能在考虑收购它们

351
00:09:46,940 --> 00:09:48,710
因为现在四十年代的股票

352
00:09:48,710 --> 00:09:51,110
然后我们看看是否会发生

353
00:09:51,450 --> 00:09:52,710
他们可能会进行大幅

354
00:09:52,710 --> 00:09:54,409
PayPal可能出现的两种情况

355
00:09:54,409 --> 00:09:56,730
实际上PayPal可能出现三种情况

356
00:09:56,730 --> 00:10:01,029
一是业务进行重大重组

357
00:10:01,029 --> 00:10:01,909
大量员工

358
00:10:01,909 --> 00:10:02,309
我是说

359
00:10:02,309 --> 00:10:06,779
大量员工，约30%或40%的员工被裁

360
00:10:06,779 --> 00:10:10,960
这显然会在未来几年大幅提升盈利能力

361
00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:12,580
甚至超过当前水平

362
00:10:12,580 --> 00:10:13,580
你刚刚看到Square

363
00:10:13,580 --> 00:10:14,539
近期动作

364
00:10:14,539 --> 00:10:17,419
他们大幅裁员的情况

365
00:10:17,419 --> 00:10:19,029
PayPal也可能这样做

366
00:10:19,029 --> 00:10:23,009
另一可能是出售公司

367
00:10:23,009 --> 00:10:25,799
另一可能是大幅削减成本

368
00:10:25,799 --> 00:10:27,480
新CEO上任后裁员

369
00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:27,879
大刀阔斧

370
00:10:27,879 --> 00:10:32,080
大量岗位被裁然后被收购

371
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:33,299
同时

372
00:10:33,299 --> 00:10:33,620
所以

373
00:10:33,620 --> 00:10:34,100
存在

374
00:10:34,100 --> 00:10:35,299
你知道的

375
00:10:35,299 --> 00:10:38,759
PayPal有很多可能的操作

376
00:10:38,759 --> 00:10:39,659
美国运通

377
00:10:39,659 --> 00:10:40,799
长期优质公司

378
00:10:40,799 --> 00:10:42,559
我想买入更多美国运通股票

379
00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,889
希望它成为公开账户的最大持仓之一

380
00:10:46,889 --> 00:10:48,210
我们将关注它

381
00:10:48,210 --> 00:10:49,509
不会一夜之间发生

382
00:10:49,509 --> 00:10:53,820
但长期看好美国运通成为公开账户的重要持仓

383
00:10:53,820 --> 00:10:54,159
现在

384
00:10:54,159 --> 00:10:54,740
优秀公司

385
00:10:54,740 --> 00:10:55,539
强劲增长

386
00:10:55,539 --> 00:10:57,139
已经为我们带来可观收益

387
00:10:57,139 --> 00:10:57,600
已经上涨

388
00:10:57,600 --> 00:10:59,200
股票增值超过一万五千美元

389
00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,068
这还是新近持仓

390
00:11:01,068 --> 00:11:02,469
沙发是头号选手

391
00:11:02,469 --> 00:11:03,089
嗯

392
00:11:03,089 --> 00:11:05,068
显然在避险市场中

393
00:11:05,068 --> 00:11:06,169
无人愿持有高风险

394
00:11:06,169 --> 00:11:08,049
但市场一旦转向风险偏好

395
00:11:08,049 --> 00:11:10,309
中东局势明朗后

396
00:11:10,309 --> 00:11:10,710
石油

397
00:11:10,710 --> 00:11:11,809
所有这些都要关注

398
00:11:11,809 --> 00:11:12,830
如果我强势反弹

399
00:11:12,830 --> 00:11:13,450
转眼间

400
00:11:13,450 --> 00:11:15,389
前面已显示25%涨幅

401
00:11:15,389 --> 00:11:15,830
转眼之间

402
00:11:15,830 --> 00:11:16,870
又回到了三十点

403
00:11:16,870 --> 00:11:17,789
说实话

404
00:11:17,789 --> 00:11:18,940
呃

405
00:11:18,940 --> 00:11:20,299
它从古拉格出来了

406
00:11:20,299 --> 00:11:20,679
今年

407
00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:22,200
我真心相信会涨五美元

408
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:22,559
另外

409
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:24,139
今年我们会看到

410
00:11:24,139 --> 00:11:24,940
可能搞错了

411
00:11:24,940 --> 00:11:28,580
我觉得关于那个圣诞老人货架模型这件事我应该没错

412
00:11:28,580 --> 00:11:29,580
嗯 大幅增长

413
00:11:29,580 --> 00:11:31,019
那个今天涨了百分之五

414
00:11:31,019 --> 00:11:32,600
这又是类似Sofi的那种

415
00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,299
一旦市场形成上涨 momentum

416
00:11:34,299 --> 00:11:35,318
看它飞涨

417
00:11:35,318 --> 00:11:36,899
看它飞涨

418
00:11:36,899 --> 00:11:37,958
谷歌mcgoogle已入场

419
00:11:37,958 --> 00:11:38,879
对我来说是无人区

420
00:11:38,879 --> 00:11:39,278
现在

421
00:11:39,278 --> 00:11:40,599
股价上涨了百分之九十六

422
00:11:40,599 --> 00:11:40,938
上涨三十点

423
00:11:40,938 --> 00:11:42,759
三千美元已经回吐

424
00:11:42,759 --> 00:11:44,259
大量谷歌股份

425
00:11:44,259 --> 00:11:46,139
我可能以后会卖出剩余部分

426
00:11:46,139 --> 00:11:46,820
我不太确定

427
00:11:46,820 --> 00:11:49,220
当我打算清仓剩余部分时

428
00:11:50,779 --> 00:11:51,179
是啊

429
00:11:51,179 --> 00:11:52,179
我还不确定

430
00:11:52,179 --> 00:11:54,379
我还不确定具体何时 如此

431
00:11:54,379 --> 00:11:55,559
我正在想办法

432
00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,320
但最终大概会抛售谷歌

433
00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,279
我已经持有多个大科技股

434
00:11:59,279 --> 00:12:00,899
我也不需要再持有谷歌

435
00:12:00,899 --> 00:12:02,559
它已经赚了我大笔财富

436
00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:04,940
但这并不意味谷歌没有赚钱机会

437
00:12:04,940 --> 00:12:06,839
但大头利润已赚到

438
00:12:06,839 --> 00:12:08,958
我幸运地在合适时机入场

439
00:12:08,958 --> 00:12:10,739
当然赚了大钱没错

440
00:12:10,739 --> 00:12:13,639
股价上涨百分之百十八

441
00:12:13,639 --> 00:12:15,019
Revolves是一家优秀公司

442
00:12:15,019 --> 00:12:16,019
正在做伟大事业

443
00:12:16,019 --> 00:12:16,818
嗯

444
00:12:16,818 --> 00:12:18,139
我应该增持股份

445
00:12:18,139 --> 00:12:20,918
说实话 这家企业运营得太出色了

446
00:12:20,918 --> 00:12:21,818
Tlz

447
00:12:21,818 --> 00:12:24,578
我需要在某个时间点退出对冲

448
00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:25,960
呃

449
00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:27,000
拭目以待

450
00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:28,779
我希望能尽早退出

451
00:12:28,779 --> 00:12:29,700
与其等到以后

452
00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:31,600
所以谷歌和TLZ

453
00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,639
我真想离开

454
00:12:34,419 --> 00:12:39,389
我希望在接下来的三到四个月内离开那些公司

455
00:12:39,389 --> 00:12:40,328
我们拭目以待

456
00:12:40,328 --> 00:12:41,649
可能在下个月

457
00:12:41,649 --> 00:12:42,928
可能三个月后

458
00:12:42,928 --> 00:12:44,308
但我想离开谷歌

459
00:12:44,308 --> 00:12:46,369
我也想离开TLZ我的对冲

460
00:12:46,369 --> 00:12:47,048
对抗谷歌

461
00:12:47,048 --> 00:12:49,200
对抗特斯拉在接下来几个月

462
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:50,879
Fubo的投机股显然

463
00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:56,370
大家都在等待业务模式的清晰化

464
00:12:56,370 --> 00:12:58,490
关于甲骨文

465
00:12:58,490 --> 00:12:59,250
我给它们评分

466
00:12:59,250 --> 00:13:01,250
B级的损益表

467
00:13:01,250 --> 00:13:03,059
收入增长18%

468
00:13:03,059 --> 00:13:05,320
运营开支也增长18%

469
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:06,860
所以现在

470
00:13:06,860 --> 00:13:10,730
你希望利润增速略低于收入

471
00:13:10,730 --> 00:13:12,149
利息支出影响了他们

472
00:13:12,149 --> 00:13:13,690
然后嗯

473
00:13:13,690 --> 00:13:16,950
最终净利润增长18%

474
00:13:16,950 --> 00:13:18,190
这不错

475
00:13:18,190 --> 00:13:18,950
强劲的数据

476
00:13:18,950 --> 00:13:22,110
但问题是净利润增速未快于收入

477
00:13:22,110 --> 00:13:24,490
看到收入增长18%

478
00:13:24,490 --> 00:13:27,610
最终希望净利润增长20-25%

479
00:13:27,610 --> 00:13:28,330
30%

480
00:13:28,330 --> 00:13:30,899
现在同增速显然不够

481
00:13:30,899 --> 00:13:33,100
每股27或2美元

482
00:13:33,100 --> 00:13:34,240
这非常稳健

483
00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:35,559
甲骨文的财报表现良好

484
00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:39,049
甲骨文值得买入吗？

485
00:13:39,049 --> 00:13:40,210
我的观点是

486
00:13:41,370 --> 00:13:43,720
我认为现在甲骨文值得买入

487
00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,240
当然不是我最偏爱的股票

488
00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:50,139
但在此150价位或附近

489
00:13:50,139 --> 00:13:52,990
我觉得值得买入

490
00:13:52,990 --> 00:13:54,710
我会买吗？不

491
00:13:54,710 --> 00:13:56,470
市场还有太多机会

492
00:13:56,470 --> 00:14:01,659
但我觉得现在买入甲骨文合理

493
00:14:01,659 --> 00:14:03,929
我认为未来几年会获利

494
00:14:03,929 --> 00:14:05,690
但不会是最赚钱的

495
00:14:05,690 --> 00:14:06,590
绝对是大科技公司

496
00:14:06,590 --> 00:14:08,649
但我认为未来几年会获利

497
00:14:08,649 --> 00:14:11,299
所以甲骨文评为买入B级

498
00:14:11,299 --> 00:14:12,159
告诉我Monstrat

499
00:14:12,159 --> 00:14:13,019
联合创始人

500
00:14:13,019 --> 00:14:15,320
首席战略家现在加入我们未来频道

501
00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:16,379
证明你的墓碑

502
00:14:16,379 --> 00:14:17,440
你勇敢的灵魂

503
00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:18,779
穿着西装领带

504
00:14:18,779 --> 00:14:20,580
几个月前我在那里

505
00:14:20,580 --> 00:14:21,279
在这片海滩上

506
00:14:21,279 --> 00:14:23,080
这就是你的风格汤姆

507
00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:23,360
是啊

508
00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:24,879
或许这就是反潮流

509
00:14:24,879 --> 00:14:25,879
对啊

510
00:14:25,879 --> 00:14:26,299
是的

511
00:14:26,299 --> 00:14:26,820
嗯

512
00:14:26,820 --> 00:14:27,799
我会告诉你

513
00:14:27,799 --> 00:14:30,328
你知道你现在有点这样了

514
00:14:30,729 --> 00:14:31,208
你

515
00:14:31,208 --> 00:14:33,249
你并不看空股市

516
00:14:33,249 --> 00:14:35,919
但你确实有一个基准假设

517
00:14:35,919 --> 00:14:38,559
今年某个时候我们将下跌20%

518
00:14:38,559 --> 00:14:40,320
我们将迎来熊市

519
00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:42,759
这是否是最初的迹象

520
00:14:42,759 --> 00:14:43,710
嗯

521
00:14:43,710 --> 00:14:44,389
你知道的

522
00:14:44,389 --> 00:14:45,750
我们的观点是

523
00:14:45,750 --> 00:14:50,690
我们预计当市场对利好无动于衷时会出现下跌

524
00:14:50,690 --> 00:14:55,679
我认为我们正处于熊市阶段

525
00:14:55,679 --> 00:14:56,500
软件行业已经如此

526
00:14:56,500 --> 00:14:58,679
科技股和加密货币

527
00:14:58,679 --> 00:15:01,480
这已经消除了大量投机

528
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:02,599
对我来说

529
00:15:02,599 --> 00:15:07,379
我认为我们的押注是市场将在月底前回升

530
00:15:07,379 --> 00:15:09,399
三月将整体上涨

531
00:15:09,399 --> 00:15:12,289
或许下半年触及7300点

532
00:15:12,289 --> 00:15:15,710
我们认为熊市可能显现的时间点是什么时候关于石油

533
00:15:15,710 --> 00:15:16,129
没错

534
00:15:16,129 --> 00:15:17,839
我们密切关注着

535
00:15:17,839 --> 00:15:19,958
我们紧跟头条新闻

536
00:15:19,958 --> 00:15:23,379
其中有些明显是错误的

537
00:15:23,379 --> 00:15:25,089
呃

538
00:15:25,089 --> 00:15:26,849
我不知道该怎么处理

539
00:15:26,849 --> 00:15:27,249
是的

540
00:15:27,249 --> 00:15:27,448
我是说

541
00:15:27,448 --> 00:15:28,448
这真是个混乱时期

542
00:15:28,448 --> 00:15:29,769
我认为非常困难

543
00:15:29,769 --> 00:15:32,769
如果有人试图同时交易头条或石油

544
00:15:32,769 --> 00:15:35,629
但回顾过去两天

545
00:15:35,629 --> 00:15:38,590
油价比上周上涨15美元

546
00:15:38,590 --> 00:15:39,830
但标普指数更高

547
00:15:39,830 --> 00:15:41,039
对我来说

548
00:15:41,039 --> 00:15:44,399
市场实际上更能应对高油价

549
00:15:44,399 --> 00:15:46,039
你知道的

550
00:15:46,039 --> 00:15:50,460
我们在早间报告中指出高油价实际上对美国有利

551
00:15:50,460 --> 00:15:51,360
股市

552
00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:51,659
是的

553
00:15:51,659 --> 00:15:55,340
我觉得这对正在观看这个节目的人来说会是一个很难说服的论点

554
00:15:55,340 --> 00:15:56,740
比如尝试

555
00:15:56,740 --> 00:16:00,429
几乎在刻意营造一个看涨的场景

556
00:16:00,429 --> 00:16:03,289
油价怎么可能上涨

557
00:16:03,289 --> 00:16:05,809
进而导致更高的汽油价格

558
00:16:05,809 --> 00:16:08,629
进而导致更高的航空燃油价格

559
00:16:08,629 --> 00:16:12,389
以及与这些输入成本相关的各种问题

560
00:16:12,389 --> 00:16:14,489
影响众多其他行业

561
00:16:14,489 --> 00:16:17,168
这怎么可能对股市有利

562
00:16:17,419 --> 00:16:18,159
是的

563
00:16:18,159 --> 00:16:19,279
部分是相对而言的

564
00:16:19,279 --> 00:16:21,419
你知道美国是石油出口国

565
00:16:21,419 --> 00:16:25,419
因此整体经济从油价上涨中获益

566
00:16:25,419 --> 00:16:28,100
其次其他国家是进口国

567
00:16:28,100 --> 00:16:31,029
因此美国不仅表现更好

568
00:16:31,029 --> 00:16:33,570
在相对增长基础上

569
00:16:33,570 --> 00:16:34,789
应能跑赢大盘

570
00:16:34,789 --> 00:16:37,120
这意味着资金回流美国

571
00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,340
第三是我们担忧全球增长

572
00:16:39,340 --> 00:16:40,679
正如你所述

573
00:16:41,679 --> 00:16:42,840
当增长稀缺时

574
00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:44,159
人们买入增长股

575
00:16:44,159 --> 00:16:47,028
美国股市是增长指数

576
00:16:47,028 --> 00:16:48,589
因此从全球市场流出

577
00:16:48,589 --> 00:16:51,210
回流美国市场，我认为这是轮动效应

578
00:16:51,210 --> 00:16:51,570
好的

579
00:16:51,570 --> 00:16:52,889
说到成长股

580
00:16:52,889 --> 00:16:54,389
科技板块一直备受争议

581
00:16:54,389 --> 00:16:55,289
其中部分领域

582
00:16:55,289 --> 00:16:56,110
比其他部分更明显

583
00:16:56,110 --> 00:16:57,769
我们将公布甲骨文财报

584
00:16:57,769 --> 00:16:58,649
在贝尔登骑士事件后

585
00:16:58,649 --> 00:17:01,068
你今早在我台上说过

586
00:17:01,068 --> 00:17:03,649
他们正在海滩上认为软件股已见底

587
00:17:03,649 --> 00:17:04,048
是的

588
00:17:04,048 --> 00:17:05,189
原因在于

589
00:17:05,189 --> 00:17:07,128
我认为软件股已触底

590
00:17:07,128 --> 00:17:10,048
因为我们倾向于提前计入负面风险

591
00:17:10,048 --> 00:17:11,048
这似乎已经发生

592
00:17:11,048 --> 00:17:12,729
我们看到市盈率下降

593
00:17:12,729 --> 00:17:14,209
比如IV

594
00:17:14,209 --> 00:17:18,759
这个软ETF指数已下跌五个点

595
00:17:18,759 --> 00:17:20,380
前向市盈率16倍

596
00:17:20,380 --> 00:17:21,440
在我看来

597
00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:22,420
你

598
00:17:22,420 --> 00:17:25,140
现在像周期性行业一样交易

599
00:17:25,140 --> 00:17:28,859
在这110只股票中

600
00:17:28,859 --> 00:17:30,440
许多公司拥有持久的商业模式

601
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,259
所以我觉得你在这里以十六倍的价格买入是有报酬的

602
00:17:33,259 --> 00:17:35,199
那更广泛的交易情况如何

603
00:17:35,199 --> 00:17:35,659
在哪里

604
00:17:35,659 --> 00:17:38,759
现在这个情况又如何了

605
00:17:39,979 --> 00:17:42,118
我这么说吧

606
00:17:42,118 --> 00:17:45,898
这可能会让一些人感到震惊

607
00:17:46,220 --> 00:17:50,160
如果有人不觉得购买个股软件公司合适

608
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,179
我认为买入iggv可能有意义

609
00:17:53,699 --> 00:17:54,618
这不是我最偏好的方式

610
00:17:54,618 --> 00:17:55,439
显然要参与的话

611
00:17:55,439 --> 00:17:56,618
我喜欢操作个股

612
00:17:56,618 --> 00:17:58,338
比如ServiceNow

613
00:17:58,338 --> 00:18:00,278
Salesforce是我的大额投资

614
00:18:00,278 --> 00:18:01,979
还有Adobe没错

615
00:18:01,979 --> 00:18:05,019
但我也能理解有些人

616
00:18:05,019 --> 00:18:06,740
我不确定是否肯定

617
00:18:06,740 --> 00:18:07,859
Salesforce会没问题

618
00:18:07,859 --> 00:18:09,880
或者Adobe会没问题或ServiceNow

619
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,028
或者像其他类似的公司我理解

620
00:18:12,028 --> 00:18:13,808
直接买入NV就行

621
00:18:13,808 --> 00:18:14,568
简单

622
00:18:14,568 --> 00:18:15,368
轻松

623
00:18:15,368 --> 00:18:16,548
柠檬汁

624
00:18:16,548 --> 00:18:16,788
比如

625
00:18:16,788 --> 00:18:17,230
你知道的

626
00:18:17,230 --> 00:18:18,390
做你想做的事

627
00:18:18,390 --> 00:18:19,269
嗯不过

628
00:18:19,269 --> 00:18:20,789
我认为igv是参与的好方式

629
00:18:20,789 --> 00:18:22,049
如果你不想操作个股

630
00:18:22,049 --> 00:18:23,349
如果我们谈论你

631
00:18:23,349 --> 00:18:27,509
声明更高的油价其实没问题或对

632
00:18:27,509 --> 00:18:28,750
股市更好

633
00:18:28,750 --> 00:18:31,049
宽基交易是否存在问题

634
00:18:31,049 --> 00:18:31,309
我说

635
00:18:31,309 --> 00:18:35,888
如果开始担心油价上涨对经济的影响

636
00:18:35,888 --> 00:18:37,788
宽基交易如何运作

637
00:18:37,788 --> 00:18:38,549
嗯

638
00:18:38,549 --> 00:18:39,950
我认为这是个好问题

639
00:18:39,950 --> 00:18:41,190
我们必须记住

640
00:18:41,190 --> 00:18:42,250
有股票市场

641
00:18:42,250 --> 00:18:43,769
并不总是反映经济

642
00:18:43,769 --> 00:18:47,858
我认为美国经济存在一些风险

643
00:18:47,858 --> 00:18:49,219
正如你所述

644
00:18:49,219 --> 00:18:52,400
这也是为什么成长股开始更有吸引力

645
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:53,559
这涉及大量科技股

646
00:18:53,559 --> 00:18:56,230
而美国是成长型指数

647
00:18:56,230 --> 00:18:59,130
我可能更倾向成长股跑赢

648
00:18:59,130 --> 00:19:01,609
这不一定是宽基交易

649
00:19:01,609 --> 00:19:04,730
最后快速说一下比特币

650
00:19:04,730 --> 00:19:07,849
因为我觉得它尚未交易

651
00:19:07,849 --> 00:19:10,599
正如许多人所怀疑的那样

652
00:19:12,980 --> 00:19:16,579
它并非避险资产投资

653
00:19:19,539 --> 00:19:20,359
换句话说

654
00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,819
我的意思是黄金就是黄金，黄金交易良好

655
00:19:22,819 --> 00:19:25,500
但比特币接下来会去向何方

656
00:19:25,500 --> 00:19:29,140
你对它的信心是否有所动摇

657
00:19:29,140 --> 00:19:30,140
没有

658
00:19:30,140 --> 00:19:33,619
我的意思是比特币在10月10日几乎崩盘

659
00:19:33,619 --> 00:19:36,640
因为这是加密货币历史上最大的去杠杆事件

660
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:37,819
当黄金上涨时

661
00:19:37,819 --> 00:19:39,079
比特币却下跌

662
00:19:39,079 --> 00:19:42,420
但我觉得我们已经度过了寒冬

663
00:19:42,420 --> 00:19:45,240
许多投机行为和杠杆都已消失

664
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,720
我认为这个周末显示了比特币

665
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,319
正重新成为价值储存工具

666
00:19:50,319 --> 00:19:52,700
因为油价上涨

667
00:19:52,700 --> 00:19:55,920
但周末加密货币价格实际回升，比特币

668
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,539
正如所知仍保持在七万美元以上

669
00:19:57,539 --> 00:19:58,720
现在

670
00:20:00,259 --> 00:20:02,220
没有意见，阿恩

671
00:20:02,220 --> 00:20:05,539
谁本周早些时候将年内市场崩盘概率提升至30%

672
00:20:05,539 --> 00:20:06,940
剩余五个百分点

673
00:20:06,940 --> 00:20:07,579
埃德，很高兴见到你

674
00:20:07,579 --> 00:20:08,059
谢谢

675
00:20:08,059 --> 00:20:11,839
这3-5%的概率是否因总统昨日言论有所变化

676
00:20:11,839 --> 00:20:18,249
没有太大变化，因为尽管总统似乎准备宣布任务完成

677
00:20:18,249 --> 00:20:21,409
或认为时机已到

678
00:20:21,409 --> 00:20:24,690
我的意思是伊朗人未必如此

679
00:20:24,690 --> 00:20:27,829
伊朗与我们已处于战争状态七年

680
00:20:27,829 --> 00:20:32,759
他们显然没有准备无条件投降

681
00:20:32,759 --> 00:20:35,259
这也是总统的要求之一

682
00:20:35,259 --> 00:20:38,049
但我们仍未接近这一点

683
00:20:38,049 --> 00:20:44,079
为何市场如此轻易接受一句话

684
00:20:44,079 --> 00:20:48,089
一个新闻周期就抛售石油

685
00:20:48,089 --> 00:20:48,930
是的

686
00:20:48,930 --> 00:20:50,670
而不是说

687
00:20:50,670 --> 00:20:54,109
战争自有其发展逻辑

688
00:20:54,109 --> 00:20:57,700
这里存在两到三方或多边因素

689
00:20:57,700 --> 00:20:59,640
我们将继续推高这一价格

690
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,480
我的担忧在于战争的迷雾

691
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,839
我的意思是人人都自诩军事专家

692
00:21:04,839 --> 00:21:06,380
其实没人是军事专家

693
00:21:07,380 --> 00:21:09,170
战争自有其逻辑

694
00:21:09,170 --> 00:21:11,849
而我将会

695
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:13,960
我会更加乐观

696
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,920
当我看到几艘油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡

697
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,799
而不被击中

698
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:20,299
直到那时

699
00:21:20,299 --> 00:21:22,059
我认为仍然存在重大风险

700
00:21:22,059 --> 00:21:24,460
你仍然持有长期看涨的看涨期权

701
00:21:24,460 --> 00:21:24,640
没错

702
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:24,839
是的

703
00:21:24,839 --> 00:21:28,440
或者这将持续

704
00:21:28,690 --> 00:21:30,369
这就是如何应对股市的方法

705
00:21:30,369 --> 00:21:31,410
就像我们现在的情况

706
00:21:31,410 --> 00:21:31,710
好的

707
00:21:31,710 --> 00:21:31,930
听着

708
00:21:33,130 --> 00:21:34,730
不要过度反应

709
00:21:34,730 --> 00:21:36,369
不要觉得

710
00:21:36,369 --> 00:21:36,730
啊

711
00:21:36,730 --> 00:21:37,289
我们已经触底了

712
00:21:37,289 --> 00:21:38,569
从这里只会继续上涨

713
00:21:38,569 --> 00:21:39,809
不要觉得

714
00:21:39,809 --> 00:21:40,130
啊

715
00:21:40,130 --> 00:21:41,589
从这里一切都会崩盘

716
00:21:41,589 --> 00:21:43,079
不要过度反应

717
00:21:43,079 --> 00:21:45,279
马克让我想起2022年

718
00:21:45,279 --> 00:21:47,799
在某种程度上并非完全

719
00:21:47,799 --> 00:21:49,299
但你知道的

720
00:21:49,299 --> 00:21:52,119
这也是我不太指望今年重现2022年的情况

721
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:52,700
但确实如此

722
00:21:52,700 --> 00:21:57,029
有些事情至少让我联想到2022年

723
00:21:57,029 --> 00:21:59,829
你知道市场开始复苏时

724
00:21:59,829 --> 00:22:00,509
你会觉得

725
00:22:00,509 --> 00:22:00,710
好的

726
00:22:00,710 --> 00:22:01,509
我们已脱离险境

727
00:22:01,509 --> 00:22:03,329
但最终市场又下跌了

728
00:22:03,329 --> 00:22:04,150
市场现在又在下跌

729
00:22:04,150 --> 00:22:04,750
这并不意味着

730
00:22:04,750 --> 00:22:06,109
今年就会这样发生

731
00:22:06,109 --> 00:22:08,930
我只是提供一个参考点

732
00:22:08,930 --> 00:22:11,470
不要对不同情况过于兴奋

733
00:22:11,470 --> 00:22:11,829
好的

734
00:22:11,829 --> 00:22:15,089
作为长期投资者耐心观察

735
00:22:15,089 --> 00:22:20,069
如果标普500今年收于7100或6100点

736
00:22:20,069 --> 00:22:21,670
作为长期投资者

737
00:22:21,670 --> 00:22:22,960
这无关紧要

738
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,960
实际上你应该希望6100点

739
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,920
因为这意味着你能在优质公司获得更好价格

740
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,160
这就是我对这个问题的看法

741
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:31,200
嗯

742
00:22:31,519 --> 00:22:34,799
我认为这与他们刚才讨论的内容相关

743
00:22:34,799 --> 00:22:35,059
几个月

744
00:22:35,059 --> 00:22:37,960
我同意可能持续数周

745
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:42,190
我认为伊朗人也在自缚手脚

746
00:22:42,190 --> 00:22:46,309
因为他们无法出口石油也无法进口物资

747
00:22:46,309 --> 00:22:49,230
所以最终必须达成停火

748
00:22:49,230 --> 00:22:51,509
但这不会是无条件的

749
00:22:51,509 --> 00:22:53,250
由伊朗方面投降

750
00:22:53,250 --> 00:22:55,170
就目前情况来看

751
00:22:55,170 --> 00:22:56,410
我的意思是再说一遍

752
00:22:56,410 --> 00:22:57,609
我不是军事专家

753
00:22:57,609 --> 00:23:01,839
但我知道军事历史学家指出很难通过空投武器赢得战争

754
00:23:01,839 --> 00:23:04,409
仅仅通过空投物资

755
00:23:04,409 --> 00:23:07,969
我们显然还没有准备好派遣地面部队

756
00:23:07,969 --> 00:23:10,769
这个敌人的问题在于

757
00:23:14,380 --> 00:23:20,309
但他们拥有在伊朗境内运作的阶梯式分支机构

758
00:23:20,309 --> 00:23:22,450
以维持民众稳定

759
00:23:22,450 --> 00:23:24,849
同时也在该地区活动

760
00:23:24,849 --> 00:23:26,890
再说一遍

761
00:23:26,890 --> 00:23:28,490
我希望无人机能停止行动

762
00:23:31,049 --> 00:23:32,170
来自伊朗的无人机

763
00:23:32,170 --> 00:23:32,690
不会停止

764
00:23:32,690 --> 00:23:38,180
显然它们可以在街道上选择目标

765
00:23:38,180 --> 00:23:42,079
试图护送它们将是危险的任务

766
00:23:42,079 --> 00:23:44,019
你上周还写道

767
00:23:44,019 --> 00:23:46,160
我知道你仍保持长期看涨观点

768
00:23:49,579 --> 00:23:50,980
这种情景会怎样

769
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:52,940
嗯

770
00:23:52,940 --> 00:23:55,980
我觉得我们都感到惊讶

771
00:23:55,980 --> 00:23:58,599
这里股市的韧性

772
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:00,319
看起来相当糟糕

773
00:24:00,319 --> 00:24:00,960
周日晚上

774
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,640
当油价升至每桶约120美元时

775
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,039
当观察离岸市场

776
00:24:07,039 --> 00:24:08,440
行情仍在下跌

777
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,000
但标普指数

778
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,680
500点实际收涨

779
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:17,449
我认为仍有逢低买入行为

780
00:24:17,483 --> 00:24:21,429
仍存在盲目乐观

781
00:24:21,429 --> 00:24:28,539
我仍希望问题能尽快解决

782
00:24:28,539 --> 00:24:30,940
但我需要看到证据支持这一点

783
00:24:30,940 --> 00:24:32,779
这似乎并不成立

784
00:24:32,779 --> 00:24:34,779
因此我们仍在观察

785
00:24:34,779 --> 00:24:36,460
可能达到10%至15%

786
00:24:36,460 --> 00:24:37,299
修正回调

787
00:24:37,299 --> 00:24:40,480
熊市需达20%以上

788
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:42,660
我认为不能排除这种可能

789
00:24:42,660 --> 00:24:45,019
单纯因为我们有历史

790
00:24:45,019 --> 00:24:50,180
油价波动往往引发衰退

791
00:24:50,180 --> 00:24:52,190
往往导致熊市

792
00:24:52,190 --> 00:24:53,769
我们确实经历了2022年

793
00:24:53,769 --> 00:24:54,890
当时出现熊市

794
00:24:56,109 --> 00:24:58,450
这就是一个可能的情景

795
00:24:58,450 --> 00:25:01,549
我不认为这会像七十年代那样重演

796
00:25:01,549 --> 00:25:02,769
但呃

797
00:25:02,769 --> 00:25:05,069
它正逐渐显露出类似的趋势

798
00:25:05,069 --> 00:25:06,119
你期望什么呢

799
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,279
为什么市场没有像你想象的那样恐慌

800
00:25:09,279 --> 00:25:11,619
或许会认为这很正常啊

801
00:25:11,619 --> 00:25:13,470
仔细想想吧

802
00:25:13,470 --> 00:25:13,869
就像这样

803
00:25:13,869 --> 00:25:14,190
没错

804
00:25:14,190 --> 00:25:14,869
2022年

805
00:25:14,869 --> 00:25:16,029
我们可以回顾那个时期

806
00:25:16,029 --> 00:25:19,990
美联储以现代史上最快的速度加息

807
00:25:19,990 --> 00:25:26,009
没错，汽油价格飙升至全国平均超五美元

808
00:25:26,009 --> 00:25:28,829
大宗商品完全失控

809
00:25:28,829 --> 00:25:31,390
但经济依然保持稳定

810
00:25:31,390 --> 00:25:37,529
在这种情况下，这远未达到严峻的地步

811
00:25:37,529 --> 00:25:38,930
正如你所知

812
00:25:38,930 --> 00:25:40,710
我们讨论的是五美元油价吗

813
00:25:40,710 --> 00:25:42,569
而且我们可能不会走到那一步

814
00:25:42,569 --> 00:25:43,650
但我们现在不谈这个

815
00:25:43,650 --> 00:25:44,549
至少目前如此

816
00:25:44,549 --> 00:25:50,940
从美联储的思路来看

817
00:25:50,940 --> 00:25:54,920
美联储今年晚些时候可能维持或降息

818
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:56,680
如果经济担忧加剧

819
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,388
他们可能会进一步降息

820
00:25:59,599 --> 00:26:00,619
这不是当前因素

821
00:26:00,619 --> 00:26:02,559
而这是2022年的重要因素

822
00:26:02,559 --> 00:26:03,700
这是最大的因素之一

823
00:26:03,700 --> 00:26:04,480
你知道的

824
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:05,480
成长股大幅抛售

825
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,529
导致市场严重受损

826
00:26:07,529 --> 00:26:08,410
整个市场都受到冲击

827
00:26:08,410 --> 00:26:09,289
所以是的

828
00:26:09,289 --> 00:26:10,130
我啊

829
00:26:10,130 --> 00:26:11,690
我认为市场对此有所评估

830
00:26:11,690 --> 00:26:14,420
这比之前的情况要温和得多

831
00:26:14,420 --> 00:26:15,059
你知道的

832
00:26:15,059 --> 00:26:18,299
就像2022年的雷曼危机被视作更严重

833
00:26:18,299 --> 00:26:20,579
还有许多美联储需要处理的因素

834
00:26:20,579 --> 00:26:22,660
你认为利率会如何变化

835
00:26:22,660 --> 00:26:24,759
即使经济增长放缓

836
00:26:24,759 --> 00:26:26,940
我们仍需关注通胀

837
00:26:26,940 --> 00:26:30,619
通胀仍远超美联储目标且可能进一步上升

838
00:26:30,619 --> 00:26:31,940
绝对没错

839
00:26:31,940 --> 00:26:35,660
美联储进退两难

840
00:26:35,660 --> 00:26:36,339
我是说

841
00:26:36,339 --> 00:26:37,279
你知道的

842
00:26:37,279 --> 00:26:39,579
他们面临诸多困境

843
00:26:39,579 --> 00:26:42,459
劳动力市场看起来相当疲软

844
00:26:42,459 --> 00:26:44,558
如果通货膨胀不是问题

845
00:26:44,558 --> 00:26:45,940
他们可能会下调利率

846
00:26:45,940 --> 00:26:50,859
但现在他们面临战争带来的双重目标困境

847
00:26:50,859 --> 00:26:53,940
因为战争正在推高能源价格

848
00:26:53,940 --> 00:26:58,650
汽油价格正在滞后性上涨

849
00:26:58,650 --> 00:27:01,369
我们需要大量肥料用于播种季

850
00:27:01,369 --> 00:27:04,349
显然大部分材料通过海峡运输

851
00:27:04,349 --> 00:27:08,490
因此存在通胀加剧的担忧

852
00:27:08,490 --> 00:27:11,909
而不是继续回落至接近2%

853
00:27:11,909 --> 00:27:13,868
美联储几乎无计可施

854
00:27:13,868 --> 00:27:14,388
而我认为

855
00:27:14,388 --> 00:27:19,750
即使凯文·沃什被提名

856
00:27:19,750 --> 00:27:22,809
获得批准并成为新任美联储主席

857
00:27:22,809 --> 00:27:24,130
我看不到这个可能

858
00:27:24,130 --> 00:27:27,615
他能说服任何人降息

859
00:27:28,118 --> 00:27:30,098
他的提名将非常引人注目

860
00:27:30,098 --> 00:27:31,858
关于这场听证会的讨论

861
00:27:31,858 --> 00:27:33,439
知道总统可能撤回提名

862
00:27:33,439 --> 00:27:34,659
我想去参加那个听证会

863
00:27:34,659 --> 00:27:35,358
我觉得我们确实需要

864
00:27:35,358 --> 00:27:35,638
如果你

865
00:27:35,638 --> 00:27:36,239
如果你能让我们

866
00:27:36,239 --> 00:27:37,539
让我成为你的plus one埃德

867
00:27:37,539 --> 00:27:38,160
这就是关键点

868
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:38,500
顺便说一句

869
00:27:38,500 --> 00:27:39,980
你在监控方面表现得太出色了

870
00:27:39,980 --> 00:27:41,819
谈论AI狂热症

871
00:27:41,819 --> 00:27:43,920
我绝对喜欢这个

872
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,700
但上周最奇怪的事情是软件领域

873
00:27:46,700 --> 00:27:47,819
软件股表现良好

874
00:27:47,819 --> 00:27:50,359
我持有的最大追踪型ETF

875
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,720
涨幅超过7%

876
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,220
昨天总统讲话时的市场反转

877
00:27:55,220 --> 00:27:56,460
今日已下跌超2%

878
00:27:56,460 --> 00:27:57,259
今天早上

879
00:27:57,259 --> 00:28:00,900
涉及战争迷雾与安全需求

880
00:28:00,900 --> 00:28:03,009
推动我们回归科技股

881
00:28:03,009 --> 00:28:05,750
或者那里发生了其他事情呢

882
00:28:05,750 --> 00:28:08,509
这是一个有趣的假设

883
00:28:08,509 --> 00:28:09,849
因为回想起来

884
00:28:09,849 --> 00:28:11,009
十二月初

885
00:28:15,650 --> 00:28:19,630
但现在似乎回到疫情环境

886
00:28:23,180 --> 00:28:24,720
因为他们拥有护城河

887
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:25,799
他们有明确的商业模式

888
00:28:27,079 --> 00:28:28,920
我将其比作权力的游戏

889
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:30,759
就像七个王国

890
00:28:31,138 --> 00:28:31,699
是的

891
00:28:31,699 --> 00:28:37,099
各自拥有领地且互不干涉

892
00:28:37,099 --> 00:28:40,859
但人工智能实际上迫使它们陷入了一场AI军备竞赛

893
00:28:40,859 --> 00:28:44,579
因此我认为科技界需要有选择性地应对

894
00:28:44,579 --> 00:28:49,200
我完全不介意在低点买入这些股票

895
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:55,680
没错，我有个古怪的想法，认为回调和熊市其实是买入机会

896
00:28:55,680 --> 00:29:01,159
所以我完全不担心挑选那些正在吸纳资金的标的

897
00:29:01,159 --> 00:29:02,878
这确实是一个完全不同的十年

898
00:29:02,878 --> 00:29:03,759
我们现在正处于这个阶段

899
00:29:03,759 --> 00:29:05,819
从2020到2029年

900
00:29:05,819 --> 00:29:10,079
这与2010到2019年完全不同

901
00:29:10,079 --> 00:29:12,089
从2010到2019年

902
00:29:12,089 --> 00:29:12,970
呃

903
00:29:12,970 --> 00:29:14,220
你知道的

904
00:29:14,220 --> 00:29:16,759
市场确实经历了一些震荡

905
00:29:16,759 --> 00:29:17,799
市场各处都有波动

906
00:29:17,799 --> 00:29:18,819
一些小幅回调

907
00:29:18,819 --> 00:29:19,700
一些大幅回调

908
00:29:19,700 --> 00:29:23,490
但最终市场整体还是比较平静

909
00:29:23,490 --> 00:29:26,789
整个十年市场总体呈上升趋势

910
00:29:26,789 --> 00:29:27,450
没错

911
00:29:27,450 --> 00:29:28,589
这确实是一个完全不同的十年

912
00:29:28,589 --> 00:29:32,130
我们现在处于2020到2029年的股市

913
00:29:32,390 --> 00:29:35,089
这个股市以波动性为标志

914
00:29:35,089 --> 00:29:37,130
这就是波动性十年

915
00:29:37,130 --> 00:29:42,680
我们所处的十年与2000到2009年一样充满波动

916
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,519
你将会经历崩盘

917
00:29:44,519 --> 00:29:47,680
市场频繁出现小幅回调

918
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,640
同时也有重大市场回调

919
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,219
看看我们这十年至今已经看到的

920
00:29:52,219 --> 00:29:54,739
没错，现在我们已过完这个十年一半时间

921
00:29:54,739 --> 00:29:56,479
截至2020年这个时间点

922
00:29:56,479 --> 00:29:59,190
我需要谈谈2022年的情况吗

923
00:29:59,190 --> 00:30:00,130
你知道的

924
00:30:00,130 --> 00:30:01,890
Meta股价暴跌超70%

925
00:30:01,890 --> 00:30:03,670
Netflix股价暴跌超70%

926
00:30:03,670 --> 00:30:05,890
从历史高点跌至底部

927
00:30:05,890 --> 00:30:07,890
Shopify股价暴跌80%

928
00:30:07,890 --> 00:30:10,589
Palantir股价暴跌70-80%

929
00:30:10,589 --> 00:30:12,369
你可以继续列举这些案例

930
00:30:12,369 --> 00:30:14,549
这些股票几乎被彻底摧毁

931
00:30:14,549 --> 00:30:15,630
被彻底摧毁

932
00:30:17,269 --> 00:30:20,569
解放日事件及去年那场闹剧

933
00:30:20,569 --> 00:30:24,960
VIX指数飙升至60左右，简直疯狂

934
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:26,799
现在这种情况仍在持续

935
00:30:26,799 --> 00:30:28,839
这就是波动性十年

936
00:30:28,839 --> 00:30:29,809
好吧

937
00:30:29,809 --> 00:30:32,569
下一个十年2030到2039年

938
00:30:32,569 --> 00:30:34,369
这大概会是

939
00:30:34,369 --> 00:30:35,289
我的猜测

940
00:30:35,289 --> 00:30:37,460
这将是一个更平稳的十年

941
00:30:37,460 --> 00:30:39,279
就像我们经历的2010到2019年

942
00:30:39,279 --> 00:30:39,920
是的，没错

943
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:40,880
这里有很多需要修正的地方

944
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,640
但归根结底只是波动更高

945
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:44,539
但这个十年将会疯狂无比

946
00:30:44,539 --> 00:30:46,569
这就是我们身处的境况

947
00:30:46,569 --> 00:30:47,410
嗯，对了

948
00:30:47,410 --> 00:30:48,250
市场存在这种

949
00:30:48,250 --> 00:30:53,569
2002到2009年的历史，那是个动荡时期

950
00:30:53,569 --> 00:30:55,869
显然有伊拉克和阿富汗战争

951
00:30:55,869 --> 00:30:57,470
科技泡沫开始破裂

952
00:30:57,470 --> 00:31:00,720
接着是金融危机和房地产崩盘

953
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:02,720
里面确实有很多乱局

954
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:06,329
现在我们处境类似

955
00:31:06,329 --> 00:31:08,130
在波动性方面

956
00:31:08,130 --> 00:31:09,630
这种疯狂就像

957
00:31:09,630 --> 00:31:10,230
你知道的

958
00:31:10,230 --> 00:31:11,509
必须适应这种情况

959
00:31:11,509 --> 00:31:13,390
这就是我们身处的十年

960
00:31:13,579 --> 00:31:16,680
我知道有人觉得这是在接刀刃

961
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,440
当人们开始用这种说法时

962
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,279
通常这不是买入的好时机

963
00:31:23,279 --> 00:31:24,740
我很好奇

964
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:31,039
关于黄金，我们看到它在本该被抢购的日子里暴跌

965
00:31:31,039 --> 00:31:32,200
黄金本应作为避险资产

966
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,920
你对黄金的判断非常精准

967
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:39,670
你提前预判了这场惊人的上涨行情

968
00:31:41,029 --> 00:31:41,990
我们到这里就结束了

969
00:31:41,990 --> 00:31:44,009
我是说这已经是

970
00:31:44,009 --> 00:31:44,329
确实是

971
00:31:44,329 --> 00:31:46,309
现在它已成为投机资产

972
00:31:46,309 --> 00:31:48,909
而非财富储存工具

973
00:31:48,909 --> 00:31:51,568
我认为两者都有

974
00:31:51,568 --> 00:31:51,989
嗯

975
00:31:51,989 --> 00:31:53,568
我认为它正在转变为

976
00:31:53,568 --> 00:31:54,159
嗯

977
00:31:54,159 --> 00:31:56,078
与比特币形成良好竞争

978
00:31:56,078 --> 00:31:58,460
例如不

979
00:31:58,460 --> 00:32:01,660
我认为它正在5000美元/盎司区间盘整

980
00:32:01,660 --> 00:32:02,839
年轻时的我

981
00:32:02,839 --> 00:32:06,140
报道比特币600美元行情

982
00:32:06,140 --> 00:32:09,400
曾听人说黄金可能成为比特币的竞争对手

983
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,059
我觉得世界颠倒了

984
00:32:11,059 --> 00:32:11,299
是啊

985
00:32:11,299 --> 00:32:11,809
是啊

986
00:32:11,815 --> 00:32:12,750
嗯

987
00:32:12,750 --> 00:32:14,630
过去一年确实如此

988
00:32:14,630 --> 00:32:15,730
所以是的

989
00:32:15,730 --> 00:32:16,809
但不

990
00:32:16,809 --> 00:32:20,319
我仍预计年底达到6000美元

991
00:32:20,319 --> 00:32:25,000
我仍预计十年末达到1万美元

992
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:26,029
哇

993
00:32:26,029 --> 00:32:26,950
好吧

994
00:32:26,950 --> 00:32:29,130
到本十年末将达到一万

995
00:32:29,130 --> 00:32:30,690
仍是市场的避风港

996
00:32:30,690 --> 00:32:31,410
目前

997
00:32:31,410 --> 00:32:34,519
当你想找一个舒适隐蔽的地方藏身时

998
00:32:34,519 --> 00:32:37,759
我不得不承认我不是黄金专家

999
00:32:37,759 --> 00:32:41,078
你知道我不太关注供需细节

1000
00:32:41,078 --> 00:32:44,329
当我看到它突破两千

1001
00:32:44,329 --> 00:32:45,190
几年前

1002
00:32:45,190 --> 00:32:47,829
我说这可能是牛市的开始

1003
00:32:47,829 --> 00:32:50,970
单纯从美国的地缘政治角度

1004
00:32:50,970 --> 00:32:51,750
以及欧洲

1005
00:32:55,859 --> 00:32:57,940
但展望未来

1006
00:32:57,940 --> 00:33:01,220
如果在同一图表同一尺度下

1007
00:33:01,220 --> 00:33:03,829
标普500与金价

1008
00:33:03,829 --> 00:33:06,250
短期内呈负相关

1009
00:33:06,250 --> 00:33:08,269
因此是极佳的分散工具

1010
00:33:08,269 --> 00:33:09,490
长期来看

1011
00:33:09,490 --> 00:33:10,910
趋势趋于一致

1012
00:33:10,910 --> 00:33:14,650
所以股市越繁荣

1013
00:33:14,650 --> 00:33:18,299
人们越想将资金分散到其他资产包括黄金

1014
00:33:18,299 --> 00:33:18,579
是的

1015
00:33:18,579 --> 00:33:21,259
还有什么好的风险分散工具

1016
00:33:21,259 --> 00:33:21,619
现在

1017
00:33:21,619 --> 00:33:26,180
债券收益被通胀抵消了

1018
00:33:26,180 --> 00:33:29,519
我认为选择不多

1019
00:33:29,519 --> 00:33:34,400
现在只能硬着头皮接受

1020
00:33:34,799 --> 00:33:36,119
我仍认为这是

1021
00:33:36,119 --> 00:33:37,839
长期牛市

1022
00:33:37,839 --> 00:33:41,519
我预计年底标普将达7700点

1023
00:33:41,519 --> 00:33:44,420
十年末金价或达一万

1024
00:33:44,420 --> 00:33:45,440
所以我没有

1025
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,319
我不放弃2020年繁荣情景

1026
00:33:48,319 --> 00:33:49,599
效果相当不错

1027
00:33:49,599 --> 00:33:50,319
目前为止

1028
00:33:50,319 --> 00:33:51,460
我们还有几年时间

1029
00:33:51,460 --> 00:33:56,019
或许即将重现70年代

1030
00:33:56,019 --> 00:33:58,029
但我不这么认为

1031
00:33:58,430 --> 00:33:59,970
所以啊

1032
00:34:00,410 --> 00:34:01,690
你需要这样做

1033
00:34:01,690 --> 00:34:02,170
好的

1034
00:34:02,170 --> 00:34:03,829
这就是我的策略

1035
00:34:03,829 --> 00:34:05,119
我来玩这个游戏

1036
00:34:05,119 --> 00:34:06,940
我要持有优质公司

1037
00:34:06,940 --> 00:34:11,880
每周多次买入优质公司

1038
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:13,360
我要保留部分现金

1039
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,719
能给我3-4%收益

1040
00:34:17,250 --> 00:34:19,510
或许我需要一些对冲手段

1041
00:34:19,510 --> 00:34:20,750
但数量不多

1042
00:34:20,750 --> 00:34:23,010
我是不是该试着玩个类似的游戏

1043
00:34:23,010 --> 00:34:25,519
我现在需要购买这些特定类型

1044
00:34:25,519 --> 00:34:27,780
或者我现在需要换成黄金

1045
00:34:27,780 --> 00:34:28,940
我需要换成白银

1046
00:34:28,940 --> 00:34:29,219
不

1047
00:34:29,219 --> 00:34:31,219
而我确实拥有白银条和其他类似物品

1048
00:34:31,219 --> 00:34:32,590
这些都储存在仓库里

1049
00:34:32,590 --> 00:34:34,750
但数量非常少

1050
00:34:34,750 --> 00:34:37,269
与我的总资产相比简直微不足道

1051
00:34:37,269 --> 00:34:39,510
所以我不会玩这些游戏和

1052
00:34:39,510 --> 00:34:39,710
哦

1053
00:34:39,710 --> 00:34:40,969
我们必须多元化投资这个

1054
00:34:40,969 --> 00:34:46,510
我想拥有那些年复年创造巨额财富的公司

1055
00:34:46,510 --> 00:34:48,449
并将利润回馈给我作为股东

1056
00:34:48,449 --> 00:34:50,789
无论是通过股票回购还是分红

1057
00:34:50,789 --> 00:34:52,210
或是通过收购其他企业

1058
00:34:52,210 --> 00:34:53,809
他们的业务规模会进一步扩大

1059
00:34:53,809 --> 00:34:55,840
这就是我想要的对吧

1060
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:57,500
我想投资能持续增长的公司

1061
00:34:57,500 --> 00:34:58,519
更强大

1062
00:34:58,519 --> 00:35:00,219
更盈利

1063
00:35:00,219 --> 00:35:01,659
我们就是这样玩这个游戏

1064
00:35:01,659 --> 00:35:03,400
我会以非常合理的估值买入

1065
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,840
并在它们持续增长时以合理估值卖出

1066
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:08,840
或者当它们被高估时

1067
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:09,800
这种情况确实会发生

1068
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,360
我持有过许多被严重高估的股票

1069
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:13,159
所以啊

1070
00:35:13,159 --> 00:35:14,099
这就是我的游戏玩法

1071
00:35:14,099 --> 00:35:14,980
如果你想玩这个游戏

1072
00:35:14,980 --> 00:35:15,659
按照我的方式

1073
00:35:15,659 --> 00:35:17,079
并且想学习所有知识

1074
00:35:17,079 --> 00:35:18,858
我脑子里整理的内容

1075
00:35:18,858 --> 00:35:20,458
今天点击下方的钉形评论

1076
00:35:20,458 --> 00:35:22,338
这将申请加入我的私有股票小组

1077
00:35:22,338 --> 00:35:23,099
我的私人财富小组

1078
00:35:23,099 --> 00:35:24,619
获取千倍收益的股票

1079
00:35:24,619 --> 00:35:25,099
点.com

1080
00:35:25,099 --> 00:35:26,309
专属Discord聊天室

1081
00:35:26,309 --> 00:35:27,670
加入一群投资者

1082
00:35:27,670 --> 00:35:28,289
六位数

1083
00:35:28,289 --> 00:35:32,110
七位数和八位数投资者

1084
00:35:32,110 --> 00:35:32,780
长期投资

1085
00:35:32,780 --> 00:35:35,519
我们共同跟踪市场动态

1086
00:35:35,519 --> 00:35:36,539
我们的股票

1087
00:35:36,539 --> 00:35:38,460
群组内的社区令人惊叹

1088
00:35:38,460 --> 00:35:39,880
如果你关注AMD股票

1089
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,710
Sofi股票等我们的社区令人惊叹

1090
00:35:43,710 --> 00:35:46,570
在及时获取新闻动态方面

1091
00:35:46,570 --> 00:35:47,750
总是有很多事情在发生

1092
00:35:47,750 --> 00:35:49,329
显然市场上的情况

1093
00:35:49,329 --> 00:35:50,349
最新新闻快讯

1094
00:35:50,349 --> 00:35:53,190
我当然会录制独家周报视频

1095
00:35:53,190 --> 00:35:54,190
所有这些优质内容

1096
00:35:54,190 --> 00:35:54,309
所以

1097
00:35:54,309 --> 00:35:55,349
那就是下方的置顶评论

1098
00:35:55,349 --> 00:35:56,039
你点击那个链接

1099
00:35:56,039 --> 00:35:57,860
你可以申请加入我们

1100
00:35:57,860 --> 00:35:58,420
好的各位

1101
00:35:58,420 --> 00:35:59,079
非常感谢

1102
00:35:59,079 --> 00:36:00,440
爱你们，祝大家今天愉快

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