【Financial Education】我清仓了这只股票

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我们刚刚命中了制胜一球

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女士们先生们

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球进去了

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是的

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今天这里真是那种充满变数的日子

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我敢肯定你们很多人都会涨红脸

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几乎整个交易日

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然后大概收绿或接近收绿

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这就是我们所说的

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最后一刻的翻转操作

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就在它即将崩盘前

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又是那种充满变数的日子

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亚马逊今日上涨530美元

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AMD表现极其强劲

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女士们先生们请听

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这只股票昨晚盘后下跌

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几乎整个交易日都在下跌

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但今天却奇迹般收红

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AMD今日上涨44400美元

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Day Elf今日上涨2400美元

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Meta上涨2300美元

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今日上涨约1200美元

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我现在持有Stockholm Beast Mode盘后股

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涨幅达双位数，11%

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5%

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三个核心主题

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我们将在本期视频中探讨

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首先是盘后飙升的股票

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那里发生了什么

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我对它的看法

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这只股票接下来会怎么走

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第二点

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今天我卖出了一只股票

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为什么我会这么做

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我们将在视频中讨论

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我会展示这只股票的最新预测

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以及我为何决定抛售

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第三点

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我用这笔钱买了哪些股票

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为何选择这些股票

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忙碌的分析视频

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三个核心主题

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聚焦一个重点

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我唯一需要你们做的一件事

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如果你还没这样做

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请给我点个赞

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感谢你的支持

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作为我的车库标志

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也点击订阅按钮

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如果你还没订阅

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我们现在有九十三万三千名订阅者

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可能就是这样

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现在这个时候

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我衷心感谢每一位每天坚持观看这些视频的观众

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即将迎来大型促销活动

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原定于5月25日的纪念日促销

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现在明天就是5月22日了

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就在几天后

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我的黄金Patreon会员权限即将升级为大师级股票课程

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史上最佳股票课程

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嗯

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同时您还能获得Patreon投资组合的买卖权限

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还有其他多项福利和功能

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这太棒了

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如果你是投资新手

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比如投资一两年内

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或投资金额不足五万美元

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这个优惠适合你

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该会员等级通常为145美元

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现在只需49美元

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下方有固定评论

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点击链接

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填写姓名和邮箱

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或通过短信发送

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好的

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好的

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那么盘后飙升的股票是哪只

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接下来这只股票会怎么走

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好的

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Listen S Day股价盘后上涨超11%

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好的

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这家公司发生了什么

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这家公司拥有全球最成功的美妆化妆品品牌

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现在

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就这家企业而言

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转型成效越来越显著

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可以说

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正朝着正确方向发展

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他们上调了2026财年全年

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有机销售额和调整后利润率预期

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反映强劲的年度业绩

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香水业务实现两位数增长

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四大地区中三大区域销售额增长，中国内地领先

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我说的就是这个

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如果我们看他们的业务表现

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护肤业务增长3%

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彩妆业务增长4%

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香水业务强劲增长

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增长率达13%

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护发产品增长2%

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以太币上涨了12%

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呃

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整体营收增长5%

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那里

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我想让大家注意这里的一些板块

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看看利润提升了多少

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如果看营业利润

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护肤品的营业利润

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例如增长了两

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百分之三

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同比来看

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仅基于3%的

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营收增长

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如果看整体营收5%的增长确实惊人

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但整体营业利润增长了17%

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这是该公司非常令人兴奋的变化

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彩票业务营收仅小幅增长

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却大幅提升了营业利润

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他们这里还有一个一次性不利项目

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如果看整体损益表

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净销售额增长5%

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销售成本同比下降

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公司表现堪称完美

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营收增长且销售成本下降就是最佳状态

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这将显著提升毛利润

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公司毛利润同比增长7%

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而消费者市场传闻一片惨淡

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外界一片悲观

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是啊

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雅诗兰黛正在崛起

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我们要交出亮眼成绩

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毛利率提升至76.4%

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从75%提升

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大幅增长

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单季度提升140个基点

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如果看销售费用仅增长1%

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毛利润增长7%而销售费用仅增1%

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这太棒了

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他们还有两个一次性不利项目

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计提2.24亿美元重组费用

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并支付8400万美元证券集体诉讼赔偿

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这些通常是一次性重大损失

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导致当季运营费用异常高

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运营费用上涨10%

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但这两个一次性项目才是主因

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我给了他们B+评级

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可能要扣减评级

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甚至可能给A级

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若非这些一次性项目拖累

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接下来

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查看资产负债表

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现在查看现金及现金等价物

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高达31亿美元

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31亿美元

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如果看长期债务

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他们已降至6800亿美元

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他们确实取得了显著进展

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关于资产负债表

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尤其是像这样历史悠久的大公司

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现在

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这真是重大利好消息

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真是重大利好

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好的

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Este Lauder和Puig

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我称他为Wig

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不确定这是否是公司的正确发音

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他们结束了可能的合并谈判

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没错

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我认为他们不需要其他品牌公司

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这家公司拥有Sd Lauder

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他们不需要更多品牌

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在社交媒体时代

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在Instagram和TikTok时代

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YouTube和Facebook以及X平台

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和这些不同平台

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还有所有大型国际平台

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这纯粹是营销问题

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更好地传播口碑对吧

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并通过品牌创新保持现有客户满意

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这才是关键

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因此他们不需要更多品牌

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他们已有所有可能想要的品牌

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不管我们讨论的是香水品牌

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不管讨论的是蜡烛品牌

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不管讨论的是化妆品

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护肤品

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他们不需要更多品牌

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在这方面他们做得很好

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他们在这方面完美无缺

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所以嗯

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这就是这类事情

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这可能会让他损失一大笔钱

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这可能会让公司陷入巨大分心

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在这个时期需要倾听

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我们不需要这个

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各项数据开始向正确方向发展

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我们不需要大量重组费用

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这只会搞得一团糟

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所以作为公司股东我很高兴

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很高兴他们不进行这笔交易

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谢天谢地没事

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我要深入分析给你看

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好的

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这可是大事

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这可是大场面

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我们正在讨论

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好的

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我要你注意的是

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是毛利率那边

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他们确实做到了

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呃

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你知道的

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两点八三

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六亿美元的毛利率

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所以你先扣除sg部分

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这样剩下五百五十

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七百万美元剩余

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现在好了

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这非常重要

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因为这些一次性项目

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你要知道实际盈利能力的增长

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对吧

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如果我们对比上一季度或去年同期

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两点六六一亿美元的毛利率

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然后扣除当时sg费用

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两点二五八亿美元

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剩下四百零三万美元

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这是三十八%的增长

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同比来看

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如果你知道的话

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再看sg这一项

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这太惊人了

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故事的寓意在这里

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在lauder的情况下

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盈利能力大幅提升

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如果剔除这些一次性项目

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谈到失败

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现在正是投资股票的最佳时机

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因为我们正处于盈利能力剧增的时刻

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他们从连续亏损转为盈利

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现在开始赚取利润

242
00:08:00,439 --> 00:08:03,899
对了，两年或四年的pe还会大幅下降

243
00:08:03,899 --> 00:08:07,310
我们正处于股票投资的黄金爆发期

244
00:08:07,310 --> 00:08:09,509
盈利能力将持续增长

245
00:08:09,509 --> 00:08:10,279
嗯

246
00:08:10,279 --> 00:08:12,240
接下来几年将大幅增长

247
00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:13,480
我估计未来几年

248
00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:14,339
此时此刻

249
00:08:14,339 --> 00:08:16,869
尽管消费和油价上涨

250
00:08:16,869 --> 00:08:19,988
以及所有这些担忧因素都将过去

251
00:08:19,988 --> 00:08:20,468
他们即将推出

252
00:08:20,468 --> 00:08:21,288
他们的数据很准确

253
00:08:21,288 --> 00:08:24,468
因此他们实际上处于非常有利的位置

254
00:08:24,468 --> 00:08:26,928
拉德现在为未来十年做好了充分准备

255
00:08:26,928 --> 00:08:28,749
甚至可能是接下来的几十年

256
00:08:28,749 --> 00:08:29,728
在当前时间节点

257
00:08:29,728 --> 00:08:31,920
他们深知社交媒体

258
00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:33,100
他们现在已经明白

259
00:08:33,100 --> 00:08:35,120
不能再依赖百货商店

260
00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:36,620
就像过去那样

261
00:08:36,620 --> 00:08:37,639
嗯

262
00:08:37,639 --> 00:08:41,279
他们必须能利用社交平台传播信息

263
00:08:41,279 --> 00:08:42,879
推广他们优质的产品

264
00:08:42,879 --> 00:08:44,779
这家公司确实拥有真正优秀的产品

265
00:08:44,779 --> 00:08:45,799
其中一些堪称顶尖

266
00:08:45,799 --> 00:08:46,970
所以啊

267
00:08:46,970 --> 00:08:47,389
你知道的

268
00:08:47,389 --> 00:08:48,389
这类股票

269
00:08:48,389 --> 00:08:52,580
我很多观众都会关注

270
00:08:52,580 --> 00:08:53,940
因为他们认为

271
00:08:53,940 --> 00:08:54,730
哦

272
00:08:54,730 --> 00:08:55,929
化妆品公司

273
00:08:55,929 --> 00:08:56,850
像美容公司这类

274
00:08:56,850 --> 00:08:57,169
你知道的

275
00:08:57,169 --> 00:08:58,590
我的观众中有90%是男性

276
00:08:58,590 --> 00:09:00,049
所以他们觉得这个公司无关紧要

277
00:09:00,049 --> 00:09:00,330
比如

278
00:09:00,330 --> 00:09:00,769
D·拉德

279
00:09:00,769 --> 00:09:02,700
谁会在像Elf这样的公司投资呢

280
00:09:02,700 --> 00:09:02,980
你知道的

281
00:09:02,980 --> 00:09:05,740
我认为这些公司长期来看将是巨大赢家

282
00:09:05,740 --> 00:09:07,759
如果观察

283
00:09:07,759 --> 00:09:11,179
哪些股票将在未来三年

284
00:09:11,179 --> 00:09:11,480
五年

285
00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:12,120
七年

286
00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,909
我认为S·德·拉德和L都会名列前茅

287
00:09:14,909 --> 00:09:15,549
我们将看到

288
00:09:15,549 --> 00:09:16,750
你会惊叹

289
00:09:16,750 --> 00:09:18,179
这些股票表现优异

290
00:09:18,179 --> 00:09:19,740
你会看着并感叹

291
00:09:19,740 --> 00:09:22,019
或许我本应更重视这些化妆品公司

292
00:09:22,019 --> 00:09:23,419
更加严肃地对待

293
00:09:23,419 --> 00:09:26,039
没错，这值得记住

294
00:09:26,039 --> 00:09:28,039
我希望我在公开账户持有更多股票

295
00:09:28,039 --> 00:09:28,860
我持有142000美元

296
00:09:28,860 --> 00:09:29,600
142000美元

297
00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:30,360
142000

298
00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:30,740
2000美元

299
00:09:30,740 --> 00:09:33,450
大概会是16万或17万

300
00:09:33,450 --> 00:09:34,309
截至明天

301
00:09:34,309 --> 00:09:36,409
股票近期大幅上涨

302
00:09:36,409 --> 00:09:37,970
我们看看最终涨幅有多大

303
00:09:37,970 --> 00:09:38,929
不过啊

304
00:09:38,929 --> 00:09:41,809
真希望明天能持有更多十七万股

305
00:09:41,809 --> 00:09:42,990
我大概能赚三十到四十

306
00:09:42,990 --> 00:09:43,850
可能五万

307
00:09:43,850 --> 00:09:45,950
现在看看它会怎么交易

308
00:09:45,950 --> 00:09:47,409
顺便说下下一篇分析

309
00:09:47,409 --> 00:09:49,029
接下来这只股票在

310
00:09:49,029 --> 00:09:50,809
我已经看到反转迹象了

311
00:09:50,809 --> 00:09:53,110
即将以巨大涨幅转向正确方向

312
00:09:53,110 --> 00:09:57,350
还记得去年estate lauder跌至4.9美元

313
00:09:57,350 --> 00:09:57,909
好的

314
00:09:57,909 --> 00:10:00,389
去年到现在我们看盘后交易

315
00:10:00,389 --> 00:10:01,190
现价88美元

316
00:10:01,190 --> 00:10:03,950
别惊讶明天可能涨到90以上

317
00:10:03,950 --> 00:10:04,490
没错

318
00:10:04,490 --> 00:10:07,389
下一只股票是下一个X日彩票

319
00:10:07,389 --> 00:10:10,759
即将反转的这家公司是耐克

320
00:10:10,759 --> 00:10:11,700
这就是下一只

321
00:10:11,700 --> 00:10:15,460
从耐克数据明显看出

322
00:10:15,460 --> 00:10:18,740
他们将是下一个大反转标的

323
00:10:18,740 --> 00:10:21,328
明年看这只股票

324
00:10:21,328 --> 00:10:24,249
现在股价在40多，明年会看

325
00:10:24,249 --> 00:10:26,288
变成70-80价位

326
00:10:26,288 --> 00:10:27,869
你会惊叹不已

327
00:10:27,869 --> 00:10:28,889
这变化来得真快

328
00:10:28,889 --> 00:10:31,860
从40到70或80

329
00:10:31,860 --> 00:10:33,500
这涨幅相当惊人

330
00:10:33,500 --> 00:10:35,620
之后可能涨到100以上

331
00:10:35,620 --> 00:10:38,919
现在这个游戏是百元俱乐部

332
00:10:38,919 --> 00:10:41,059
注意耐克销售复苏

333
00:10:41,059 --> 00:10:42,899
看好他们的发展

334
00:10:42,899 --> 00:10:44,539
就像de lauder的情况

335
00:10:44,539 --> 00:10:46,940
盈利能力将快速提升

336
00:10:46,940 --> 00:10:48,960
耐克即将启动

337
00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:49,419
好的

338
00:10:49,419 --> 00:10:51,659
顺便明天水还是很大

339
00:10:51,659 --> 00:10:52,580
如果88美元

340
00:10:52,580 --> 00:10:53,240
90美元

341
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:54,129
依然买入

342
00:10:54,129 --> 00:10:55,529
我认为这是长期机会

343
00:10:55,529 --> 00:10:56,750
两百美元以上股票

344
00:10:56,750 --> 00:10:57,129
类似

345
00:10:57,129 --> 00:10:58,870
我也看好elf

346
00:10:58,870 --> 00:10:59,470
好的

347
00:10:59,470 --> 00:11:00,570
刚才搞混了

348
00:11:00,570 --> 00:11:01,250
让我们选只股票

349
00:11:01,250 --> 00:11:02,230
我今天卖了这只

350
00:11:02,230 --> 00:11:02,990
为什么这么做

351
00:11:02,990 --> 00:11:04,029
这是一个艰难的决定

352
00:11:04,029 --> 00:11:04,649
我是说

353
00:11:04,649 --> 00:11:05,450
你知道的

354
00:11:05,450 --> 00:11:06,509
听着

355
00:11:06,509 --> 00:11:08,529
我以亏损卖出

356
00:11:09,639 --> 00:11:11,320
从来不像这样有趣

357
00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:11,919
从来都不有趣

358
00:11:11,919 --> 00:11:13,139
就像事情的发展

359
00:11:13,139 --> 00:11:14,220
我们稍后详细讨论

360
00:11:14,220 --> 00:11:15,100
你知道马上就要到了

361
00:11:15,100 --> 00:11:17,419
你知道如何以亏损卖出股票

362
00:11:17,419 --> 00:11:22,470
股票走势像头发一样乱 adobe 是的

363
00:11:22,470 --> 00:11:28,070
在那只股票上亏损超过20% 今天以亏损价卖出

364
00:11:28,070 --> 00:11:29,519
从来都不有趣

365
00:11:29,519 --> 00:11:32,080
以亏损卖出股票从不有趣

366
00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:34,700
但为什么我要这么做

367
00:11:34,700 --> 00:11:35,820
你知道为什么

368
00:11:35,820 --> 00:11:37,000
为什么我说你知道什么

369
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:37,940
我不得不认亏

370
00:11:37,940 --> 00:11:38,440
而我讨厌

371
00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:39,539
我讨厌承受亏损

372
00:11:39,539 --> 00:11:39,740
天啊

373
00:11:39,740 --> 00:11:40,139
这从来

374
00:11:40,139 --> 00:11:40,620
这其实

375
00:11:40,620 --> 00:11:45,009
从来都不有趣对吧 因为就像

376
00:11:45,009 --> 00:11:45,309
就是这样

377
00:11:45,309 --> 00:11:47,509
这是认输的阶段

378
00:11:47,509 --> 00:11:47,710
没错

379
00:11:47,710 --> 00:11:49,370
就像输掉比赛

380
00:11:49,370 --> 00:11:50,909
该死

381
00:11:51,519 --> 00:11:54,058
所以 adobe 你知道现在有点像

382
00:11:54,058 --> 00:11:55,219
我得开新闻发布会

383
00:11:55,219 --> 00:11:56,359
关于这次亏损

384
00:11:56,359 --> 00:11:57,139
我刚认亏了

385
00:11:57,139 --> 00:11:58,798
这就是我的新闻发布会

386
00:11:58,798 --> 00:11:59,798
在我们输掉比赛后

387
00:11:59,798 --> 00:12:02,250
总是从不有趣对吧

388
00:12:02,250 --> 00:12:04,490
所以关于 adobe 的情况是

389
00:12:05,529 --> 00:12:07,190
我越看越觉得

390
00:12:07,190 --> 00:12:14,360
我认为这家公司实现两位数长期增长会非常困难

391
00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,240
除非我在下个季度财报中看到奇迹

392
00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:21,149
或者类似情况 我认为长期两位数增长是

393
00:12:21,590 --> 00:12:23,070
我看不出会发生

394
00:12:23,070 --> 00:12:25,750
我认为增长率将维持个位数

395
00:12:25,750 --> 00:12:27,769
平均在2027年之后

396
00:12:27,769 --> 00:12:28,490
没错

397
00:12:28,490 --> 00:12:31,139
在我的基准情景下

398
00:12:31,139 --> 00:12:32,440
请记住我的基准情景

399
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:34,840
通常我只给出

400
00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:35,480
比如十分之一

401
00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,389
可能有15%的概率出现这种情况

402
00:12:38,389 --> 00:12:41,029
我平均有8%的营收增长，10%

403
00:12:41,029 --> 00:12:44,350
净利润增长平均15%到19倍市盈率

404
00:12:44,350 --> 00:12:46,320
对然后我们会给你一辆好车

405
00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:47,440
这里大约二十左右

406
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,210
这样就太棒了对吧

407
00:12:49,210 --> 00:12:50,529
但这概率很低

408
00:12:50,529 --> 00:12:50,850
现在

409
00:12:50,850 --> 00:12:51,610
我的基准情景

410
00:12:51,610 --> 00:12:55,210
我预计它们平均增长20-27%到20-30%

411
00:12:55,210 --> 00:12:57,460
我只实现了6%的增长

412
00:12:57,700 --> 00:12:59,809
嗯是的

413
00:12:59,809 --> 00:13:04,370
我真的认为他们很难大幅提价

414
00:13:04,370 --> 00:13:05,549
在客户群体上

415
00:13:05,549 --> 00:13:07,240
展望未来

416
00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:08,539
这就是我的看法

417
00:13:08,539 --> 00:13:09,500
嗯

418
00:13:09,500 --> 00:13:11,740
他们将越来越难吸引客户

419
00:13:11,740 --> 00:13:15,039
现在这些AI模型表现如何

420
00:13:15,039 --> 00:13:18,809
对在某些情况下这些AI提供商可能会使用

421
00:13:18,809 --> 00:13:20,190
Adobe有些则不会

422
00:13:20,190 --> 00:13:21,809
这会是个奇怪的局面

423
00:13:21,809 --> 00:13:27,350
所以我平均只有6%的营收增长

424
00:13:27,350 --> 00:13:32,068
20-26%到20-29%的净利润增长同样6%

425
00:13:32,068 --> 00:13:34,639
如果几乎不增长的话

426
00:13:34,639 --> 00:13:35,759
你可能很幸运

427
00:13:35,759 --> 00:13:39,240
甚至能维持两位数的市盈率

428
00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:43,190
所以我给它们11到14倍市盈率

429
00:13:43,190 --> 00:13:45,490
这将带来约

430
00:13:45,490 --> 00:13:48,470
我们可以称其为中点的9%或10%

431
00:13:48,470 --> 00:13:51,139
到那时

432
00:13:51,139 --> 00:13:55,529
如果我的基准情景是9%的回报率或10%

433
00:13:55,529 --> 00:13:57,049
我还不如直接买标普500

434
00:13:57,049 --> 00:13:59,389
我干脆买纳斯达克吧

435
00:13:59,389 --> 00:14:04,710
这对我来说没什么特别的

436
00:14:04,710 --> 00:14:08,110
我必须觉得它能显著跑赢标普500

437
00:14:08,110 --> 00:14:11,389
500指数而我现在对Adobe疑虑重重

438
00:14:11,389 --> 00:14:13,080
此时此刻

439
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:14,580
我对Adobe的悲观情景

440
00:14:14,580 --> 00:14:18,419
它们平均只有2%的营收和净利润增长

441
00:14:18,419 --> 00:14:19,529
这将非常糟糕

442
00:14:19,529 --> 00:14:20,330
嗯

443
00:14:20,330 --> 00:14:23,029
我们可以讨论7到9倍的市盈率

444
00:14:23,029 --> 00:14:25,289
未来几年我会在股票上亏损

445
00:14:25,289 --> 00:14:30,190
当然还有持有Adobe的资金成本

446
00:14:31,190 --> 00:14:32,570
假设Adobe股价持平

447
00:14:32,570 --> 00:14:34,409
接下来三到四年

448
00:14:34,610 --> 00:14:36,809
我的意思是市场上可能有

449
00:14:36,809 --> 00:14:38,409
我的资金会处于更佳状态

450
00:14:38,409 --> 00:14:40,659
你知道这会更好对吧

451
00:14:40,659 --> 00:14:42,259
所以这不仅仅是关于

452
00:14:42,259 --> 00:14:43,500
我在股票里会不会亏钱

453
00:14:43,500 --> 00:14:44,539
因为如果你看Adobe

454
00:14:44,539 --> 00:14:45,519
财务状况非常出色

455
00:14:45,519 --> 00:14:46,700
这就是Adobe的情况

456
00:14:46,700 --> 00:14:49,139
他们拥有极佳的持续收入流

457
00:14:49,139 --> 00:14:52,080
他们的客户不会突然全部离开

458
00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:53,200
这不会发生

459
00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:57,190
因此他们未来多年都有强劲的持续收入

460
00:14:57,190 --> 00:14:58,950
他们拥有优秀的利润表

461
00:14:58,950 --> 00:15:01,029
资产负债表非常稳健

462
00:15:01,029 --> 00:15:03,129
公司现金流也很健康

463
00:15:03,490 --> 00:15:04,049
这是一家

464
00:15:04,049 --> 00:15:05,169
这是一家很棒的公司

465
00:15:05,169 --> 00:15:06,629
只是被卡住了

466
00:15:06,629 --> 00:15:10,029
将在糟糕的估值中持续相当长时间

467
00:15:10,029 --> 00:15:11,690
所以你知道的

468
00:15:11,690 --> 00:15:13,690
这是我今天在私密群分享的内容

469
00:15:13,690 --> 00:15:14,769
在面包屑标签页

470
00:15:14,769 --> 00:15:15,210
我说

471
00:15:15,210 --> 00:15:16,230
刚做了最后调整

472
00:15:16,230 --> 00:15:17,909
卖出Adobe并亏损了

473
00:15:17,909 --> 00:15:21,230
我认为自己在这件事上犯了长期错误

474
00:15:21,230 --> 00:15:24,029
重新核算后发现上涨空间不大

475
00:15:24,029 --> 00:15:28,839
现在我相信Adobe将长期陷入低市盈率

476
00:15:28,839 --> 00:15:33,230
最终会像PayPal一样

477
00:15:33,230 --> 00:15:35,750
甚至可能跌至个位数

478
00:15:35,750 --> 00:15:37,789
随着未来几年增长放缓

479
00:15:38,950 --> 00:15:40,519
这是一个问题

480
00:15:40,519 --> 00:15:41,730
如果你看PayPal

481
00:15:41,730 --> 00:15:42,330
没错

482
00:15:42,330 --> 00:15:44,289
PayPal的商业模式非常成功

483
00:15:44,289 --> 00:15:46,330
PayPal拥有全球最佳商业模式之一

484
00:15:46,330 --> 00:15:47,929
堪称全球最佳商业模式之一

485
00:15:47,929 --> 00:15:52,469
PayPal和Venmo利润丰厚

486
00:15:52,469 --> 00:15:53,109
没错

487
00:15:53,109 --> 00:15:55,729
他们每年都持续增长

488
00:15:56,399 --> 00:15:57,820
Alex Chris加入公司

489
00:15:57,820 --> 00:15:58,820
尽了最大努力

490
00:15:58,820 --> 00:16:00,879
但最终

491
00:16:00,879 --> 00:16:06,759
PayPal高速增长的时代已成过去

492
00:16:06,759 --> 00:16:09,700
这导致PayPal

493
00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:11,179
陷入糟糕估值

494
00:16:11,179 --> 00:16:12,620
PayPal的交易价格

495
00:16:12,620 --> 00:16:13,919
简直是个玩笑般的估值

496
00:16:13,919 --> 00:16:14,159
我意思是

497
00:16:14,159 --> 00:16:14,828
看看这个

498
00:16:14,828 --> 00:16:18,529
八四倍市盈率，二或四倍市盈率对应七倍PayPal

499
00:16:18,529 --> 00:16:20,009
仍困在糟糕估值中

500
00:16:20,009 --> 00:16:21,009
因为现在人们看待它

501
00:16:21,009 --> 00:16:21,570
就像

502
00:16:21,570 --> 00:16:23,279
也许他们会增长百分之三

503
00:16:23,279 --> 00:16:24,679
他们一直担心被颠覆

504
00:16:24,679 --> 00:16:25,639
尤其是关于paypal

505
00:16:25,639 --> 00:16:26,120
没错

506
00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,139
同样的担忧会持续多年

507
00:16:28,139 --> 00:16:31,200
像担心adobe会带来颠覆

508
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:32,259
这种担忧不会消失

509
00:16:32,259 --> 00:16:33,039
短期来看

510
00:16:33,039 --> 00:16:36,580
人们会持续多年担心未来

511
00:16:36,580 --> 00:16:39,190
最终人们只会转向聊天

512
00:16:39,190 --> 00:16:39,629
GPT

513
00:16:39,629 --> 00:16:41,529
然后转向gemini

514
00:16:41,529 --> 00:16:42,789
然后转向

515
00:16:42,789 --> 00:16:43,370
你知道的

516
00:16:43,370 --> 00:16:45,019
比如clot或谁谁谁对吧

517
00:16:45,019 --> 00:16:47,419
还有x和grok

518
00:16:47,419 --> 00:16:48,519
以及所有这些平台

519
00:16:48,519 --> 00:16:50,340
他们将以这种方式制作图像

520
00:16:50,340 --> 00:16:53,210
这种恐惧不会消散

521
00:16:53,210 --> 00:16:54,669
即使你说

522
00:16:54,669 --> 00:16:59,450
adobe可能提供部分后端支持

523
00:16:59,450 --> 00:17:03,379
但这仍无法让人安心

524
00:17:03,379 --> 00:17:04,000
嗯，人们

525
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:05,200
这会让人们感到舒适

526
00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:06,680
因为人们会说

527
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:10,710
这些语言模型提供商会获取所有数据自行处理

528
00:17:10,710 --> 00:17:11,789
长期来看

529
00:17:11,789 --> 00:17:15,710
短期可能给adobe一点好处以维持关系

530
00:17:15,710 --> 00:17:18,849
这就是问题所在

531
00:17:18,849 --> 00:17:22,519
感觉就像paypal

532
00:17:22,519 --> 00:17:24,200
非常像paypal

533
00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,160
不同之处是我们还没跌到那种估值

534
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:27,980
而这里的情况是

535
00:17:27,980 --> 00:17:29,160
是否存在更多下行风险

536
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,409
确实有潜在可能

537
00:17:31,409 --> 00:17:32,328
这很糟糕

538
00:17:32,328 --> 00:17:34,489
我们讨论的股票有

539
00:17:34,489 --> 00:17:35,189
你知道的

540
00:17:35,189 --> 00:17:39,859
adobe当前市盈率大概在14到15

541
00:17:39,859 --> 00:17:40,579
现在

542
00:17:40,579 --> 00:17:43,119
我可以在另一台电脑上查到千倍市盈率

543
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:47,190
让我快速查看adobe十二个月市盈率

544
00:17:47,190 --> 00:17:47,769
嗯

545
00:17:49,130 --> 00:17:51,109
这里的关键指标

546
00:17:51,789 --> 00:17:52,769
嗯对

547
00:17:52,769 --> 00:17:55,829
adobe十二个月市盈率目前约14

548
00:17:55,829 --> 00:17:58,569
所以你知道的

549
00:17:58,569 --> 00:18:01,329
市盈率是否可能跌至paypal水平

550
00:18:01,329 --> 00:18:02,450
比如个位数

551
00:18:02,450 --> 00:18:03,809
在未来几年可能会发生

552
00:18:03,809 --> 00:18:05,930
这意味着Adobe可能成为死钱

553
00:18:05,930 --> 00:18:09,380
这就是我担心Adobe的原因

554
00:18:09,380 --> 00:18:10,160
并不是说

555
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:11,740
Adobe会破产吗

556
00:18:11,740 --> 00:18:12,519
不是那样的

557
00:18:12,519 --> 00:18:14,190
他们会继续发展

558
00:18:14,190 --> 00:18:15,589
Adobe的问题在于

559
00:18:15,589 --> 00:18:18,950
未来三到五年会是死钱

560
00:18:18,950 --> 00:18:20,190
你就像被困住一样

561
00:18:20,190 --> 00:18:21,289
我们一直被PayPal困住

562
00:18:21,289 --> 00:18:23,069
我们只是年复一年持有

563
00:18:23,069 --> 00:18:26,278
但数据看起来不错

564
00:18:26,278 --> 00:18:28,898
但股价毫无反应

565
00:18:28,898 --> 00:18:30,919
这正是PayPal的情况

566
00:18:30,919 --> 00:18:31,858
数据表现良好

567
00:18:31,858 --> 00:18:33,690
年复一年持续

568
00:18:34,009 --> 00:18:35,250
他们赚了很多钱

569
00:18:35,250 --> 00:18:36,289
利润丰厚

570
00:18:36,289 --> 00:18:38,490
他们进行大规模回购

571
00:18:38,490 --> 00:18:40,180
但这没关系

572
00:18:40,180 --> 00:18:41,319
股价表现糟糕

573
00:18:41,319 --> 00:18:42,779
你知道这已经

574
00:18:42,779 --> 00:18:45,230
多年来是资本的浪费

575
00:18:45,230 --> 00:18:48,750
我担心Adobe也会这样

576
00:18:48,750 --> 00:18:50,890
这已经是巨大资本浪费

577
00:18:50,890 --> 00:18:52,109
我们都清楚这一点

578
00:18:52,109 --> 00:18:54,990
但可能会长期持续

579
00:18:54,990 --> 00:18:58,789
我不确定，但希望Adobe最好

580
00:18:58,789 --> 00:19:02,410
但担心它会是低回报股票

581
00:19:02,410 --> 00:19:04,888
或多年死钱股票

582
00:19:05,288 --> 00:19:07,328
所以我不

583
00:19:07,328 --> 00:19:11,250
我不知道他们如何摆脱这种困境

584
00:19:11,250 --> 00:19:13,190
下一季度数据会正常

585
00:19:13,190 --> 00:19:16,450
预计营收在最坏情况下

586
00:19:16,450 --> 00:19:17,069
增长9%

587
00:19:17,069 --> 00:19:17,970
最佳情况下

588
00:19:17,970 --> 00:19:19,549
可能12%左右

589
00:19:19,549 --> 00:19:21,789
没什么好担心的

590
00:19:21,789 --> 00:19:22,690
你知道的

591
00:19:22,690 --> 00:19:24,529
别为好数据哭泣

592
00:19:24,529 --> 00:19:25,869
我只是在观察

593
00:19:25,869 --> 00:19:26,609
我就像

594
00:19:26,609 --> 00:19:28,630
我看不出这个叙事会消失

595
00:19:28,630 --> 00:19:29,319
永远

596
00:19:29,319 --> 00:19:31,660
我认为他们将继续担忧

597
00:19:31,660 --> 00:19:32,880
Adobe被颠覆

598
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,279
Adobe被颠覆

599
00:19:34,279 --> 00:19:35,720
这就是

600
00:19:36,390 --> 00:19:37,089
你知道的

601
00:19:37,089 --> 00:19:38,230
我觉得现在服务行业

602
00:19:38,230 --> 00:19:41,769
我认为Salesforce最终能够摆脱这种叙事

603
00:19:41,769 --> 00:19:46,019
没错，但我在关注Adobe

604
00:19:46,019 --> 00:19:46,979
我当时就心想

605
00:19:46,979 --> 00:19:49,690
我觉得他们很难摆脱这种叙事

606
00:19:49,690 --> 00:19:50,210
还有第二点

607
00:19:50,210 --> 00:19:50,809
又是另一个案例

608
00:19:50,809 --> 00:19:51,049
我说啊

609
00:19:51,049 --> 00:19:52,650
你们注意到Intuit发生了什么吗

610
00:19:52,650 --> 00:19:54,009
Intuit的财报表现不错

611
00:19:54,009 --> 00:19:55,089
Intuit的财报表现不错

612
00:19:55,089 --> 00:19:57,119
这只股票已经暴跌了

613
00:20:02,759 --> 00:20:04,990
已经跌到十美元了

614
00:20:04,990 --> 00:20:07,009
Intuit的股价跌到十美元

615
00:20:07,009 --> 00:20:08,650
从技术面看数千只股票

616
00:20:08,650 --> 00:20:09,609
Dot com报9.9点

617
00:20:09,609 --> 00:20:12,019
9.5和2.0

618
00:20:12,019 --> 00:20:13,799
他们拥有全球最佳商业模式之一

619
00:20:13,799 --> 00:20:14,559
QuickBooks

620
00:20:14,559 --> 00:20:15,240
TurboTax

621
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:15,839
所有这些产品

622
00:20:15,839 --> 00:20:16,380
没错

623
00:20:16,380 --> 00:20:17,059
嗯

624
00:20:17,059 --> 00:20:20,429
我们长期为我的小企业使用它们

625
00:20:20,429 --> 00:20:28,420
但Intuit该如何重建市场信心

626
00:20:28,420 --> 00:20:33,269
我不知道他们能否改变长期预期

627
00:20:33,269 --> 00:20:36,250
可能公司现状就像

628
00:20:37,299 --> 00:20:39,279
市场对Intuit缺乏长期信心

629
00:20:39,279 --> 00:20:40,079
很可能正确

630
00:20:40,079 --> 00:20:42,200
随着时间推移

631
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,190
你可能不再需要QuickBooks

632
00:20:45,190 --> 00:20:45,930
你知道的

633
00:20:45,930 --> 00:20:49,750
因为LLM供应商能提供更强大深入的解决方案

634
00:20:49,750 --> 00:20:55,789
像我这样的企业主，多年前注册使用

635
00:20:55,789 --> 00:20:59,589
回想我2016-2017年经营房地产营销公司时

636
00:21:00,910 --> 00:21:05,109
这些人未来可能不再使用

637
00:21:05,109 --> 00:21:11,940
他们可能直接使用LLM服务商绕过Intuit

638
00:21:11,940 --> 00:21:13,460
这才是可怕之处

639
00:21:13,460 --> 00:21:14,059
没错

640
00:21:14,059 --> 00:21:15,880
Adobe股票也是如此

641
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,569
随着年份推移

642
00:21:18,569 --> 00:21:21,730
使用Adobe的公司用户

643
00:21:21,730 --> 00:21:24,369
未来可能不再续用

644
00:21:27,669 --> 00:21:28,608
这太难了

645
00:21:28,608 --> 00:21:29,209
确实很难

646
00:21:29,209 --> 00:21:29,729
残酷

647
00:21:29,729 --> 00:21:30,108
残酷

648
00:21:30,108 --> 00:21:30,489
残酷

649
00:21:30,489 --> 00:21:33,128
不过你知道如何做决定

650
00:21:33,128 --> 00:21:33,788
你知道吗

651
00:21:33,788 --> 00:21:35,709
就像我之前在私密群组里提到的

652
00:21:35,709 --> 00:21:38,059
我说啊，承认亏损确实没什么乐趣

653
00:21:38,059 --> 00:21:40,099
但这就是这个游戏的经营成本

654
00:21:40,099 --> 00:21:41,099
这不是我第一次亏损

655
00:21:41,099 --> 00:21:42,539
肯定也不会是最后一次

656
00:21:42,539 --> 00:21:43,660
这就是游戏规则

657
00:21:43,660 --> 00:21:46,650
唉，承认失败确实没意思

658
00:21:46,650 --> 00:21:47,569
但你不得不接受

659
00:21:47,569 --> 00:21:50,980
你知道不可能百发百中

660
00:21:50,980 --> 00:21:54,019
你知道今年买入的这些股票

661
00:21:54,019 --> 00:21:55,279
最终可能要以亏损卖出

662
00:21:55,279 --> 00:21:56,059
这些就是股票

663
00:21:56,059 --> 00:21:58,000
明年买入的股票可能也要亏损卖出

664
00:21:58,000 --> 00:21:58,519
没错

665
00:21:58,519 --> 00:22:00,460
你不可能每次都对

666
00:22:00,779 --> 00:22:01,460
这很重要

667
00:22:01,460 --> 00:22:03,890
你要抓住大机会才行，这才是关键

668
00:22:03,890 --> 00:22:05,670
这个游戏你正确的时候多，错误的时候也多

669
00:22:05,670 --> 00:22:07,390
但最终你还是会犯错

670
00:22:07,390 --> 00:22:08,549
不管你是谁

671
00:22:08,549 --> 00:22:10,430
你已经在市场摸了17-18年

672
00:22:10,430 --> 00:22:12,009
没错，你参与这个游戏

673
00:22:12,009 --> 00:22:13,409
每天都会遇到错误

674
00:22:13,409 --> 00:22:14,769
连沃伦·巴菲特都承认

675
00:22:14,769 --> 00:22:15,568
大家都会犯错

676
00:22:15,568 --> 00:22:17,909
这就是经营成本，必须接受

677
00:22:17,909 --> 00:22:18,769
确实没意思

678
00:22:18,769 --> 00:22:22,180
但必须面对现实

679
00:22:22,180 --> 00:22:22,740
就像Adobe公司

680
00:22:22,740 --> 00:22:23,490
我就像

681
00:22:23,490 --> 00:22:25,990
我依然抱有希望，这点很重要

682
00:22:25,990 --> 00:22:27,130
即使在最基础的假设下

683
00:22:27,130 --> 00:22:28,650
依然能盈利

684
00:22:28,650 --> 00:22:32,349
但归根结底还是要看

685
00:22:32,909 --> 00:22:33,229
是的

686
00:22:33,229 --> 00:22:35,949
还有没有更好的投资机会

687
00:22:35,949 --> 00:22:36,689
没错

688
00:22:36,689 --> 00:22:38,489
总之

689
00:22:38,489 --> 00:22:39,148
这就是Adobe的情况

690
00:22:39,148 --> 00:22:40,128
这太糟糕了兄弟

691
00:22:40,128 --> 00:22:43,130
你知道我想每只股票都赚钱

692
00:22:43,130 --> 00:22:46,490
但显然斯蒂芬·库里不可能每个三分球都进

693
00:22:46,490 --> 00:22:47,730
他也不可能每次都命中

694
00:22:47,730 --> 00:22:48,170
好吧

695
00:22:48,170 --> 00:22:48,730
接下来是

696
00:22:48,730 --> 00:22:50,029
我用这笔钱买入的股票

697
00:22:50,029 --> 00:22:51,450
我用这笔钱买了什么

698
00:22:51,450 --> 00:22:51,930
嗯

699
00:22:51,930 --> 00:22:54,170
我首先买入了一些股票

700
00:22:54,170 --> 00:22:56,339
美国运通a xp

701
00:22:56,339 --> 00:22:58,259
说到美国运通

702
00:22:58,259 --> 00:22:59,160
作为一家公司

703
00:22:59,160 --> 00:22:59,640
谢天谢地

704
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:00,740
不会被

705
00:23:00,740 --> 00:23:02,400
像人工智能信用卡公司这样的

706
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:02,759
他们

707
00:23:02,759 --> 00:23:03,509
呃

708
00:23:03,509 --> 00:23:07,269
他们在行业中堪称翘楚且利润极高

709
00:23:07,269 --> 00:23:10,029
这样的公司历经十年仍屹立不倒

710
00:23:10,029 --> 00:23:11,029
公布业绩数据

711
00:23:11,029 --> 00:23:11,929
他们拥有

712
00:23:11,929 --> 00:23:14,929
他们拥有最优质的客户群体

713
00:23:14,929 --> 00:23:16,839
无论

714
00:23:16,839 --> 00:23:18,579
我们谈论的是哪个世代

715
00:23:18,579 --> 00:23:21,119
就像美国运通始终是首选

716
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,549
所以你知道的

717
00:23:24,549 --> 00:23:26,289
Z世代没错

718
00:23:26,289 --> 00:23:29,869
现在的Z世代可能不会使用美国运通

719
00:23:29,869 --> 00:23:32,869
如果他们申请过任何信用卡产品

720
00:23:33,069 --> 00:23:35,069
你知道我不确定谁会

721
00:23:35,069 --> 00:23:36,369
他们申请的是哪家

722
00:23:36,369 --> 00:23:37,509
比如Capital One

723
00:23:37,509 --> 00:23:38,470
我不确定随便什么

724
00:23:38,470 --> 00:23:39,109
嗯

725
00:23:39,109 --> 00:23:40,690
随着他们变得富有

726
00:23:40,690 --> 00:23:41,710
随着他们获得财富

727
00:23:41,710 --> 00:23:43,750
最终会使用美国运通

728
00:23:43,750 --> 00:23:44,710
这就是关键点

729
00:23:44,710 --> 00:23:45,109
你知道

730
00:23:45,109 --> 00:23:47,670
我以前不是美国运通客户

731
00:23:48,259 --> 00:23:50,799
我第一张信用卡是Capital One

732
00:23:50,799 --> 00:23:52,579
他们是我唯一能获得信用卡的

733
00:23:52,579 --> 00:23:53,500
当时我没有任何信用记录

734
00:23:53,500 --> 00:23:55,059
我记得我有一张

735
00:23:55,059 --> 00:23:56,199
呃

736
00:23:56,199 --> 00:23:57,878
六百美元的信用额度

737
00:23:57,878 --> 00:23:58,979
或者类似这样的

738
00:23:58,979 --> 00:24:01,078
然后我妻子让我用她的信用卡

739
00:24:01,078 --> 00:24:02,598
开始建立信用记录

740
00:24:02,598 --> 00:24:07,799
说实话她当时有很多商店联名信用卡

741
00:24:07,799 --> 00:24:09,809
然后你玩这个游戏

742
00:24:09,809 --> 00:24:11,369
随着你提升信用等级

743
00:24:11,369 --> 00:24:13,289
当你达到六位数收入时

744
00:24:13,289 --> 00:24:14,190
七位数收入时

745
00:24:14,190 --> 00:24:16,089
不知不觉就用上了美国运通

746
00:24:16,089 --> 00:24:17,009
因为你会开始关注商品

747
00:24:17,009 --> 00:24:18,349
开始更多旅行

748
00:24:18,349 --> 00:24:19,910
开始关注各种权益

749
00:24:19,910 --> 00:24:21,909
不知不觉就成了美国运通用户

750
00:24:21,909 --> 00:24:24,429
你正在用信用卡支付他们的费用

751
00:24:24,429 --> 00:24:27,909
但你实际获得的回报远超你的消费

752
00:24:27,909 --> 00:24:29,699
这其实形成了一个美妙的循环

753
00:24:29,699 --> 00:24:33,999
因为美国运通客户乐于使用美国运通消费

754
00:24:33,999 --> 00:24:34,439
没错

755
00:24:34,439 --> 00:24:36,119
我拥有金卡

756
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:40,539
这可能是全球大众最优秀的信用卡

757
00:24:40,539 --> 00:24:43,099
然后我妻子有铂金卡

758
00:24:43,099 --> 00:24:44,099
那个高端卡

759
00:24:44,099 --> 00:24:47,180
而这些卡的年费又上调了

760
00:24:47,180 --> 00:24:48,420
我猜是每年895美元

761
00:24:48,420 --> 00:24:50,019
之前是695美元

762
00:24:50,019 --> 00:24:52,680
就是这样

763
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,099
然后你反复使用这些信用卡

764
00:24:55,099 --> 00:24:58,279
你的收入越高

765
00:24:58,279 --> 00:25:00,259
消费的可能性就越大

766
00:25:00,259 --> 00:25:04,440
作为有资金的人

767
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:05,660
为什么不使用信用卡呢

768
00:25:05,660 --> 00:25:06,909
因为能积累积分

769
00:25:06,909 --> 00:25:08,868
这些积分可以兑换

770
00:25:08,868 --> 00:25:09,588
里程奖励

771
00:25:09,588 --> 00:25:11,388
你可以兑换各种物品

772
00:25:11,388 --> 00:25:12,169
太棒了

773
00:25:12,169 --> 00:25:13,200
嗯

774
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:14,480
某些信用卡

775
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,079
可以兑换现金返还

776
00:25:16,079 --> 00:25:17,529
简直太棒了

777
00:25:17,529 --> 00:25:18,829
所以美国运通

778
00:25:18,829 --> 00:25:19,369
优秀的企业

779
00:25:19,369 --> 00:25:20,049
卓越的商业模式

780
00:25:20,049 --> 00:25:21,650
我认为目前市盈率在17倍

781
00:25:21,650 --> 00:25:22,289
现在股价

782
00:25:22,289 --> 00:25:22,809
让我查一下

783
00:25:22,809 --> 00:25:25,009
在千股平台快速查看

784
00:25:25,009 --> 00:25:27,059
美国运通股票

785
00:25:27,059 --> 00:25:29,500
17.4或17.13

786
00:25:29,500 --> 00:25:30,839
这太惊人了

787
00:25:30,839 --> 00:25:31,740
然后

788
00:25:31,740 --> 00:25:35,409
这家公司拥有双位数每股收益增长

789
00:25:35,409 --> 00:25:36,808
我看得很远

790
00:25:36,808 --> 00:25:38,409
以美国运通这样的公司

791
00:25:38,409 --> 00:25:40,339
接下来是ServiceNow

792
00:25:40,339 --> 00:25:41,160
这家ServiceNow

793
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:42,779
当前股价99美元

794
00:25:42,779 --> 00:25:44,339
72美元

795
00:25:44,700 --> 00:25:49,240
我认为华尔街明显高估了Salesforce和ServiceNow

796
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:50,940
担心行业颠覆

797
00:25:50,940 --> 00:25:53,160
他们并未充分理解这些公司

798
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:54,740
以及它们与企业的整合程度

799
00:25:54,740 --> 00:25:57,730
以及未来持续整合的能力

800
00:25:57,730 --> 00:25:59,049
以及他们的销售团队

801
00:25:59,049 --> 00:26:01,119
这些使用Salesforce的公司

802
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,000
我是说他们实际上在卖人

803
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,279
好的，像ServiceNow和Salesforce这样的公司

804
00:26:06,279 --> 00:26:09,720
我认为他们在整个游戏中应该没问题

805
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,289
我觉得他们将成为AI的受益者

806
00:26:12,289 --> 00:26:14,250
像Adobe这样的公司，像Intuit这样的公司

807
00:26:14,250 --> 00:26:15,289
这更可怕对吧

808
00:26:15,289 --> 00:26:16,130
这简直糟透了

809
00:26:16,130 --> 00:26:17,250
他们真的会退出吗

810
00:26:17,250 --> 00:26:17,949
我不知道

811
00:26:17,949 --> 00:26:19,288
像ServiceNow这样的公司

812
00:26:19,288 --> 00:26:20,388
像Salesforce这样的公司

813
00:26:20,388 --> 00:26:22,189
这些将是长期受益者

814
00:26:22,189 --> 00:26:22,989
依我之见

815
00:26:22,989 --> 00:26:24,200
随着Agent技术

816
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,559
随着Agent代理和所有相关发展

817
00:26:27,559 --> 00:26:29,549
这两家公司都专注于此

818
00:26:29,549 --> 00:26:31,109
并且它们显然有核心产品

819
00:26:31,109 --> 00:26:31,809
安全类产品

820
00:26:31,809 --> 00:26:32,650
各种类似产品

821
00:26:32,650 --> 00:26:37,609
ServiceNow应该没问题，未来会蓬勃发展

822
00:26:37,609 --> 00:26:41,009
没错，我愿意为此承担风险

823
00:26:41,009 --> 00:26:44,119
这也是Adobe情况中的另一个因素

824
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:48,220
我现在已大量持有ServiceNow和Salesforce

825
00:26:48,220 --> 00:26:50,579
我在这两家公司押注了大量筹码

826
00:26:50,579 --> 00:26:58,009
假设所有公司十年后归零

827
00:26:58,009 --> 00:26:58,869
没错

828
00:26:58,869 --> 00:27:01,150
我可以承受两个股票出错

829
00:27:01,150 --> 00:27:02,990
我不知道能否承受三个股票出错

830
00:27:02,990 --> 00:27:04,529
关于此事

831
00:27:04,529 --> 00:27:05,430
接下来这个

832
00:27:05,430 --> 00:27:08,599
我买入了五万股

833
00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:12,599
我在Honest股价3.17美元时买入

834
00:27:12,599 --> 00:27:14,240
这真是太好了

835
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:15,240
不会被AI颠覆

836
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,039
朝着正确方向发展

837
00:27:17,039 --> 00:27:19,160
Carlos今年退出了一些业务

838
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,779
短期收入因此受损

839
00:27:21,779 --> 00:27:25,259
但这将大幅提升公司利润率

840
00:27:25,259 --> 00:27:25,980
长期来看

841
00:27:25,980 --> 00:27:29,759
团队将专注于最佳产品并扩展

842
00:27:29,759 --> 00:27:32,429
而不是分散精力在各种事务上

843
00:27:32,429 --> 00:27:36,348
这就是先退后进的道理

844
00:27:36,348 --> 00:27:40,500
今年减少营收以提升利润率

845
00:27:40,500 --> 00:27:42,859
为长期提升盈利能力

846
00:27:42,859 --> 00:27:44,099
然后恢复营收增长

847
00:27:44,099 --> 00:27:46,619
公司将实现强劲营收增长

848
00:27:46,619 --> 00:27:47,980
有机营收已开始增长

849
00:27:47,980 --> 00:27:51,359
但整体公司明年将启动全面增长

850
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,539
所以我爱那里发生的一切

851
00:27:53,539 --> 00:27:55,739
诚实的卡洛拉完全值得信赖

852
00:27:55,739 --> 00:27:57,259
自她加入公司以来就担任CEO

853
00:27:57,259 --> 00:27:57,618
我的意思是

854
00:27:57,618 --> 00:27:58,519
当她加入这家公司时

855
00:27:58,519 --> 00:27:59,818
看起来他们要破产了

856
00:27:59,818 --> 00:28:01,058
我要完全坦诚地告诉你们

857
00:28:01,058 --> 00:28:03,289
资产负债表几乎不存在

858
00:28:03,289 --> 00:28:04,410
就现金而言

859
00:28:04,410 --> 00:28:05,450
情况很糟糕

860
00:28:05,450 --> 00:28:06,690
尽管他们承受了巨额

861
00:28:06,690 --> 00:28:07,680
巨额亏损

862
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:08,700
她过来后

863
00:28:08,700 --> 00:28:10,279
扭转了巨额亏损

864
00:28:10,279 --> 00:28:11,839
让资产负债表重回正轨

865
00:28:11,839 --> 00:28:14,839
说实话，这家公司的市值

866
00:28:14,839 --> 00:28:16,828
现在是个笑话

867
00:28:16,828 --> 00:28:17,648
让我看看

868
00:28:17,648 --> 00:28:20,000
整个公司的市值在这里

869
00:28:21,039 --> 00:28:23,720
诚实公司市值三百五十万美元

870
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:24,559
上次

871
00:28:24,559 --> 00:28:27,888
我查过他们有约九千万现金且无债务

872
00:28:28,288 --> 00:28:29,449
算算这笔账

873
00:28:29,449 --> 00:28:31,409
所以现实是你们实际支付

874
00:28:31,409 --> 00:28:34,808
实际支付约两亿六千万购买整个公司

875
00:28:35,888 --> 00:28:37,979
我喜欢诚实

876
00:28:37,979 --> 00:28:38,778
非常非常喜欢

877
00:28:38,778 --> 00:28:40,640
这是一家小盘公司

878
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,920
我认为他们未来两三年利润将飙升

879
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,059
没人预料到会发生什么

880
00:28:46,059 --> 00:28:50,089
没错，我认为股票将涨至十美元以上

881
00:28:50,089 --> 00:28:51,470
接下来会发生什么

882
00:28:51,470 --> 00:28:52,730
他们可以继续扩展业务

883
00:28:52,730 --> 00:28:53,910
如果卡洛拉想这么做

884
00:28:53,910 --> 00:28:57,289
或者她可以在此时出售公司

885
00:28:57,289 --> 00:28:57,930
当我们谈到

886
00:28:57,930 --> 00:28:59,710
股价将升至十到二十美元

887
00:28:59,710 --> 00:29:00,569
她可以出售公司

888
00:29:00,569 --> 00:29:02,009
这是一家小盘公司

889
00:29:02,009 --> 00:29:03,190
没人关注它

890
00:29:03,190 --> 00:29:04,710
但我看好这里的发展

891
00:29:04,710 --> 00:29:07,730
我买入的下一只股票是 Celsius Holdings

892
00:29:07,730 --> 00:29:09,210
三百三十三股

893
00:29:09,210 --> 00:29:10,250
他们显然拥有 Celsius

894
00:29:10,250 --> 00:29:11,009
他们拥有 Lonnie

895
00:29:11,009 --> 00:29:13,329
两大快速增长的能量饮料品牌

896
00:29:13,329 --> 00:29:15,909
他们刚收购了百事的 Rockstar

897
00:29:15,909 --> 00:29:17,949
我在这里买入三百三十三股

898
00:29:17,949 --> 00:29:20,709
每股2969美元买入 Celsius

899
00:29:20,709 --> 00:29:22,868
这是我对 Celsius 的预测

900
00:29:22,868 --> 00:29:24,528
通过千次跨部门沟通

901
00:29:24,528 --> 00:29:25,400
通讯

902
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:26,500
我的核心论点

903
00:29:26,500 --> 00:29:29,779
平均27至30年间实现15%的营收增长

904
00:29:29,779 --> 00:29:30,819
25%

905
00:29:30,819 --> 00:29:33,319
平均27至30年间净利润增长

906
00:29:33,319 --> 00:29:35,119
如果他们能保持这样的增长速度

907
00:29:35,119 --> 00:29:37,990
35到40倍市盈率对公司非常合理

908
00:29:37,990 --> 00:29:41,509
在这种情景下我的复合增长率能达到50%

909
00:29:41,509 --> 00:29:43,970
这已经是极佳的基础情景

910
00:29:43,970 --> 00:29:45,009
其实就是想说

911
00:29:45,009 --> 00:29:49,829
我预计公司平均实现10%营收增长

912
00:29:49,829 --> 00:29:51,789
我设定20%的增长率

913
00:29:51,789 --> 00:29:54,369
公司平均净利润增长

914
00:29:54,369 --> 00:29:56,549
净利润率提升至17%

915
00:29:56,549 --> 00:29:57,230
到2030年

916
00:29:57,230 --> 00:29:58,579
这完全可行

917
00:29:58,579 --> 00:30:01,019
公司估值29至34倍市盈率

918
00:30:01,019 --> 00:30:05,329
我们讨论的是34%到40%的年复合增长率

919
00:30:05,329 --> 00:30:07,910
这就是我买入Celsius的原因

920
00:30:07,910 --> 00:30:09,650
这就是区分

921
00:30:09,650 --> 00:30:12,539
比如Adobe和Celsius的区别，Celsius

922
00:30:12,539 --> 00:30:14,019
我正在运行预测模型并分析

923
00:30:14,019 --> 00:30:14,420
你知道的

924
00:30:14,420 --> 00:30:14,640
三

925
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:16,900
该公司可能实现3.5%以上的年复合增长率

926
00:30:16,900 --> 00:30:20,769
我运行Adobe的预测模型，可能达到9%

927
00:30:20,769 --> 00:30:23,609
但连这点我都感到担忧

928
00:30:23,609 --> 00:30:24,130
不

929
00:30:24,130 --> 00:30:25,349
这才是最棒的部分

930
00:30:25,349 --> 00:30:26,410
基准悲观情景

931
00:30:26,410 --> 00:30:27,569
如果我能运行悲观情景

932
00:30:27,569 --> 00:30:30,170
仍能盈利堪称完美

933
00:30:30,170 --> 00:30:31,490
当我运行悲观情景时

934
00:30:31,490 --> 00:30:33,630
仍会看好并给予500倍市盈率

935
00:30:33,630 --> 00:30:35,750
这又是另一个层次

936
00:30:35,750 --> 00:30:38,029
悲观情景仅5%增长

937
00:30:38,029 --> 00:30:39,430
这对Celsius将是灾难

938
00:30:39,430 --> 00:30:40,019
顺便说一句

939
00:30:40,019 --> 00:30:41,920
平均仅5%营收增长

940
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:42,460
5%

941
00:30:42,460 --> 00:30:43,460
平均净利润增长

942
00:30:43,460 --> 00:30:45,529
净利润率仅12%

943
00:30:45,529 --> 00:30:47,890
饮料公司达到这样的增速

944
00:30:47,890 --> 00:30:48,609
2025年

945
00:30:48,609 --> 00:30:49,509
将是合理市盈率

946
00:30:49,509 --> 00:30:52,329
我仍能获得约10%的复合增长率

947
00:30:52,329 --> 00:30:54,559
10%的增长率

948
00:30:54,759 --> 00:30:55,500
你知道的

949
00:30:55,500 --> 00:30:55,920
糟糕

950
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:57,569
像这样就会是一场灾难

951
00:30:57,569 --> 00:30:59,009
而我仍然在超越这个

952
00:30:59,009 --> 00:30:59,829
P五百万

953
00:30:59,829 --> 00:31:02,369
这就是为什么现在 Celsius 必须买入

954
00:31:02,369 --> 00:31:04,009
这也是我今天增持更多股份的原因

955
00:31:04,009 --> 00:31:05,250
我对 Celsius 还没结束

956
00:31:05,250 --> 00:31:05,799
顺便说一句

957
00:31:05,799 --> 00:31:07,319
我打算长期买入 Celsius

958
00:31:08,319 --> 00:31:10,888
可能整个今年都在买 Celsius

959
00:31:10,888 --> 00:31:13,568
即使 Celsius 上涨到四十

960
00:31:13,568 --> 00:31:14,269
呃

961
00:31:14,269 --> 00:31:14,528
好的

962
00:31:14,528 --> 00:31:17,209
我的复利增长速度可能不会更好

963
00:31:17,209 --> 00:31:18,799
但依然会非常惊人

964
00:31:18,799 --> 00:31:21,299
所以即使 Celsius 在四十四五

965
00:31:21,299 --> 00:31:22,519
仍然是绝佳买入

966
00:31:22,519 --> 00:31:23,579
记住这一点

967
00:31:23,579 --> 00:31:25,140
今天买入的下一只股票

968
00:31:25,140 --> 00:31:27,380
Bobo 一只略具投机性的股票

969
00:31:27,380 --> 00:31:28,940
我想逐步建立仓位

970
00:31:28,940 --> 00:31:30,259
目前仓位不足一%

971
00:31:30,259 --> 00:31:33,579
计划将仓位调整到约一%

972
00:31:33,579 --> 00:31:34,660
总体来看 Fubo

973
00:31:34,660 --> 00:31:36,759
他们彻底扭转了商业模式

974
00:31:36,759 --> 00:31:40,960
各项数据比以往任何时候都更聚焦盈利

975
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,990
所有这些因素都指向 Fubo

976
00:31:42,990 --> 00:31:44,609
但是一只非常投机的股票

977
00:31:44,609 --> 00:31:45,730
但如果成功

978
00:31:45,730 --> 00:31:46,779
将会大获成功

979
00:31:46,779 --> 00:31:49,720
今天买入的下一只股票是耐克四百十股

980
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:51,140
每次我以为该清仓耐克

981
00:31:51,140 --> 00:31:53,599
又得在四十四点三九买入更多

982
00:31:53,599 --> 00:31:54,259
这家公司

983
00:31:54,259 --> 00:31:55,750
我完全不担心

984
00:31:55,750 --> 00:31:58,349
我认为耐克的长期前景非常巨大

985
00:31:59,390 --> 00:32:02,480
我认为这将成为巨大利润来源

986
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:03,319
就像巨大的利润机器

987
00:32:03,319 --> 00:32:05,160
甚至一年后人们会回看

988
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:06,200
我说的是一年后

989
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:07,519
我认为就是一年后

990
00:32:07,519 --> 00:32:09,769
人们会说回头看看

991
00:32:09,769 --> 00:32:10,609
还记得你持有耐克

992
00:32:10,609 --> 00:32:11,410
四十美元价位

993
00:32:11,410 --> 00:32:13,769
我们应该当时就该买

994
00:32:13,769 --> 00:32:15,549
我觉得这种情况会发生

995
00:32:15,549 --> 00:32:16,470
我可能错了

996
00:32:16,470 --> 00:32:17,930
关于 Adobe 可能说错

997
00:32:17,930 --> 00:32:19,250
关于耐克也可能说错

998
00:32:19,250 --> 00:32:21,170
但我不这么认为这是公司

999
00:32:21,170 --> 00:32:23,289
我非常非常非常了解这家公司

1000
00:32:23,289 --> 00:32:23,930
有一些公司

1001
00:32:23,930 --> 00:32:25,470
我非常熟悉

1002
00:32:25,470 --> 00:32:26,589
耐克就是其中之一

1003
00:32:26,589 --> 00:32:28,789
我非常熟悉

1004
00:32:28,789 --> 00:32:31,210
我对田径运动非常了解

1005
00:32:31,210 --> 00:32:33,750
我也非常了解他们的客户群体

1006
00:32:33,750 --> 00:32:37,140
所以你得记住这一点

1007
00:32:37,140 --> 00:32:38,920
关于公开账户

1008
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,559
我手头还有四万多元

1009
00:32:41,559 --> 00:32:44,420
明天我要在市场用这笔钱

1010
00:32:44,420 --> 00:32:45,039
哦对了

1011
00:32:45,039 --> 00:32:47,199
你可能会问为什么没有精灵

1012
00:32:47,199 --> 00:32:49,558
我在其他投资组合里买了太多

1013
00:32:49,558 --> 00:32:51,559
公开账户表现不错

1014
00:32:51,559 --> 00:32:56,319
仅其中一个投资组合就有几十万美元在精灵那里

1015
00:32:56,319 --> 00:32:57,339
此时此刻

1016
00:32:57,339 --> 00:33:01,259
所以我像发疯一样在其他组合大量买入

1017
00:33:01,259 --> 00:33:03,259
这就是为什么我没在该组合买入

1018
00:33:03,259 --> 00:33:05,759
但明天我考虑

1019
00:33:05,759 --> 00:33:07,750
我要买入Meta或亚马逊

1020
00:33:07,750 --> 00:33:09,430
或者潜在的新机会

1021
00:33:09,430 --> 00:33:10,630
像新股

1022
00:33:10,630 --> 00:33:11,569
我们拭目以待

1023
00:33:11,569 --> 00:33:13,150
我可能会更新你们

1024
00:33:13,150 --> 00:33:13,809
我们拭目以待

1025
00:33:13,809 --> 00:33:17,200
另外不要杠杆

1026
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:18,559
在展示账户前我要提醒大家

1027
00:33:18,559 --> 00:33:20,220
我要展示整个公开账户

1028
00:33:20,220 --> 00:33:21,559
不要玩杠杆

1029
00:33:21,559 --> 00:33:23,019
人们总爱玩杠杆

1030
00:33:23,019 --> 00:33:25,660
千万别做 不要 不要 不要

1031
00:33:25,660 --> 00:33:26,329
好的

1032
00:33:26,329 --> 00:33:28,089
我们不玩杠杆

1033
00:33:28,089 --> 00:33:29,329
看看富达

1034
00:33:29,329 --> 00:33:30,450
总是诱惑我

1035
00:33:30,450 --> 00:33:32,289
看看那个一点

1036
00:33:32,289 --> 00:33:34,130
九百九十六万美元

1037
00:33:34,130 --> 00:33:35,170
你就像杰里米

1038
00:33:35,170 --> 00:33:36,049
用它吧

1039
00:33:36,049 --> 00:33:37,309
就在你面前

1040
00:33:37,309 --> 00:33:37,890
快点

1041
00:33:37,890 --> 00:33:38,609
你想用就用

1042
00:33:38,609 --> 00:33:39,529
再两百万

1043
00:33:39,529 --> 00:33:40,410
就在你面前

1044
00:33:40,410 --> 00:33:43,118
宝贝快用啊

1045
00:33:43,118 --> 00:33:44,338
我不上当

1046
00:33:44,338 --> 00:33:45,358
你的花招

1047
00:33:45,358 --> 00:33:46,939
大家别玩杠杆

1048
00:33:46,939 --> 00:33:47,459
相信我

1049
00:33:47,459 --> 00:33:48,999
这没意思

1050
00:33:48,999 --> 00:33:49,779
不

1051
00:33:49,779 --> 00:33:51,079
最好的部分

1052
00:33:51,079 --> 00:33:52,240
我认为要关注公众持仓

1053
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:53,240
现在的情况是

1054
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:56,539
我们现在持有四百万美元以上

1055
00:33:57,900 --> 00:34:04,000
最好的部分是公众账户中大量股票接近52周低点

1056
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:05,700
或者处于52周低点

1057
00:34:05,700 --> 00:34:06,500
就像这样

1058
00:34:06,500 --> 00:34:07,599
这简直疯狂

1059
00:34:07,599 --> 00:34:07,779
没错

1060
00:34:07,779 --> 00:34:08,699
在这个顶部位置

1061
00:34:08,699 --> 00:34:11,070
这些持仓表现良好

1062
00:34:11,070 --> 00:34:11,349
没错

1063
00:34:11,349 --> 00:34:12,030
蛋糕

1064
00:34:12,030 --> 00:34:14,489
亚马逊和Meta表现并不好

1065
00:34:14,489 --> 00:34:15,769
我本该圈选Meta

1066
00:34:15,769 --> 00:34:18,909
Meta实际上处于52周高点的下限

1067
00:34:18,909 --> 00:34:20,208
AMD表现惊人

1068
00:34:20,208 --> 00:34:20,469
没错

1069
00:34:20,469 --> 00:34:22,708
所以AMD现在是主要推动力

1070
00:34:22,708 --> 00:34:25,699
但看这个人表现并不佳

1071
00:34:25,699 --> 00:34:28,000
Salesforce接近52周低点

1072
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,039
Nike接近52周低点

1073
00:34:30,039 --> 00:34:31,760
美国运通接近52周低点

1074
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:32,599
伊蒂·帕尔默

1075
00:34:32,599 --> 00:34:34,360
明天起他们将脱离该区间

1076
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,469
你知道帕尔默接近52周低点

1077
00:34:38,469 --> 00:34:40,009
PayPal接近52周低点

1078
00:34:40,009 --> 00:34:41,628
Celsius接近52周低点

1079
00:34:41,628 --> 00:34:44,668
Honest更接近52周低点

1080
00:34:44,668 --> 00:34:46,590
现在该服务我们了

1081
00:34:46,590 --> 00:34:47,219
嗯

1082
00:34:47,219 --> 00:34:48,528
接近52周低点

1083
00:34:48,528 --> 00:34:50,088
所以接近52周低点

1084
00:34:50,088 --> 00:34:51,849
我今天本该多买SOFA

1085
00:34:51,849 --> 00:34:52,728
现在在思考

1086
00:34:52,728 --> 00:34:53,528
这又是另一个

1087
00:34:53,528 --> 00:34:55,068
我也在构建其他投资组合

1088
00:34:55,068 --> 00:34:55,548
最近

1089
00:34:55,548 --> 00:34:57,119
Elves接近52周低点

1090
00:34:57,119 --> 00:34:58,699
Fubo接近52周低点

1091
00:34:58,699 --> 00:35:00,039
Revolves接近52周低点

1092
00:35:00,039 --> 00:35:00,860
这是另一家优质公司

1093
00:35:00,860 --> 00:35:01,340
顺便说一句

1094
00:35:01,340 --> 00:35:02,840
所有未被讨论的

1095
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:03,159
所以

1096
00:35:03,159 --> 00:35:04,760
这次行情将载入史册

1097
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:06,340
当这些股票开始上涨

1098
00:35:06,340 --> 00:35:07,420
它们必将启动

1099
00:35:07,420 --> 00:35:08,900
对此我毫无怀疑

1100
00:35:08,900 --> 00:35:09,500
当他们这样做时

1101
00:35:09,500 --> 00:35:10,699
这次跑步将成为传奇

1102
00:35:10,699 --> 00:35:11,340
在公众号里

1103
00:35:11,340 --> 00:35:13,539
我们即将突破五百万大关

1104
00:35:13,539 --> 00:35:15,500
我们将直接冲过

1105
00:35:15,500 --> 00:35:17,480
在突破五百万前

1106
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:18,039
你懂的

1107
00:35:18,039 --> 00:35:20,289
这次跑步将成为传奇

1108
00:35:20,289 --> 00:35:22,309
这些股票不会永远下跌

1109
00:35:22,309 --> 00:35:23,769
它们不会永远下跌

1110
00:35:23,769 --> 00:35:25,889
当跑步开始时

1111
00:35:26,869 --> 00:35:28,150
这会很有趣

1112
00:35:28,150 --> 00:35:30,110
这会很有趣

1113
00:35:30,110 --> 00:35:31,789
但眼下

1114
00:35:32,150 --> 00:35:33,710
AMD正在玩得开心

1115
00:35:33,710 --> 00:35:35,289
亚马逊现在玩得开心

1116
00:35:35,289 --> 00:35:35,929
好的

1117
00:35:35,929 --> 00:35:38,630
但这两个A字母暂时在玩

1118
00:35:38,630 --> 00:35:40,119
但当这些股票上涨时

1119
00:35:40,119 --> 00:35:42,068
哦它们要涨了吗

1120
00:35:42,068 --> 00:35:44,548
这次上涨将势不可挡

1121
00:35:44,548 --> 00:35:46,548
这次跑步将疯狂无比

1122
00:35:46,548 --> 00:35:48,248
大约十二点到两点

1123
00:35:48,248 --> 00:35:49,248
四个月周期

1124
00:35:49,248 --> 00:35:50,349
大约十二点到两点

1125
00:35:50,349 --> 00:35:51,509
四个月时间

1126
00:35:51,849 --> 00:35:53,489
这将极其极端

1127
00:35:53,489 --> 00:35:54,168
好的

1128
00:35:54,168 --> 00:35:55,708
希望大家喜欢今天的视频

1129
00:35:55,708 --> 00:35:57,639
感谢大家今天加入我

1130
00:35:57,639 --> 00:35:58,199
再次提醒

1131
00:35:58,199 --> 00:35:59,119
我们迎来大幅促销

1132
00:35:59,119 --> 00:36:00,260
几天后即将揭晓

1133
00:36:00,260 --> 00:36:01,679
针对黄金Patreon tier

1134
00:36:01,679 --> 00:36:04,199
该链接显示145美元降至49美元一日特惠

1135
00:36:04,199 --> 00:36:04,960
仅限一天

1136
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:06,440
详情见下方置顶评论

1137
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:11,039
点击链接填写姓名或邮箱或电话

1138
00:36:11,039 --> 00:36:13,019
以便接收限时优惠

1139
00:36:13,019 --> 00:36:15,599
我甚至不确定是否会在阵亡将士纪念日拍视频

1140
00:36:15,599 --> 00:36:16,769
请记住这一点

1141
00:36:16,769 --> 00:36:17,650
所以啊

1142
00:36:17,650 --> 00:36:18,530
如果你想获取优惠

1143
00:36:18,530 --> 00:36:22,070
务必加入邮件或短信列表接收优惠

1144
00:36:22,070 --> 00:36:22,469
好的

1145
00:36:22,469 --> 00:36:22,650
好的

1146
00:36:22,650 --> 00:36:24,219
大家多多保重，祝您愉快

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