【Financial Education】我的最大重仓股：AMD，为什么我依然看好它？

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女士们先生们

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今天你们加入我见证了一个历史性时刻

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我说的

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这绝对是我们频道历史上的重要日子

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也是我私股群组历史上的历史性时刻

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今天简直难以置信

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amd已成为公开账户中价值七十一万美元的最大持仓

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截至此刻

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难以置信

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它已超越了meta

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多年来meta一直是该投资组合的最大持仓

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我说的是多年之久

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因此amd最终抢先meta完成了这一壮举

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就像特斯拉

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在其大幅上涨后

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我曾大幅投资特斯拉

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在其大涨前

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开始了它的暴涨行情

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这成为了最大持仓

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随后我开始抛售特斯拉

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此后meta开启了暴涨行情

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随后meta成为最大持仓

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现在正式成为amd

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好的

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今天视频里有很多内容要讲

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我们将在视频开头讨论股票走势

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amd上涨了4%

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短短几周前从底部反弹4%

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我们将分析股票后续走势

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现已突破历史新高

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我也想在视频中讨论这一点

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嗯

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或许还会提到其他几只股票

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好的

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呃

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我们有一个恐惧贪婪指数

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现已进入贪婪区域

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这简直难以置信

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因为回顾一周前市场还处于恐惧中

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而一个月前则是极度恐惧

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大约两周半至三周前市场深陷极度恐惧

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真是难以置信

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市场的波动速度

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我们来谈谈这个

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讨论投资者情绪

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这对

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市场后续走势意味着什么

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汤姆·李啊

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他好像又拍了 hostage 视频

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不知道他为何总在这家酒店拍摄

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但他正在这么做

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那我们就继续来反应这个内容

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然后我想来反应四小时前的这个内容

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如何在历史高位构建投资策略

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感谢大家一如既往地加入

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非常感谢大家的到来

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我只需要你们做一件事

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如果你还没做过的话

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我需要你

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请帮个忙

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只需点个赞

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图标

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点个赞

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点击这个按钮

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如果你还没做过的话

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如果你已经做过的话

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谢谢

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我感谢你

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希望你能认可我

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这就是我唯一的要求

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顺便请订阅频道

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你当然想订阅这里

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好的

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好的

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女士们先生们

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我们来聊聊股票

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想讨论AMD吗

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我们来聊聊AMD

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AMD现已突破所有历史高点

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收盘价创历史新高

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有史以来最高收盘价

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目前报价278美元

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AMD

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接下来看290美元

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若能突破90美元

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需警惕原因

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290美元至关重要，这是分析师目标价

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有人会问AMD为何今日大涨

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嗯

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看下这个反应

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频道成员Stacey Rakon

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Stacey Rakon先生

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所以负面

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AMD

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我不会忘记去年的那一天

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在某个时候

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他提到类似的话

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我甚至不知道

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如果需要他谈论

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AMD

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这是我听过的最不尊重的言论之一

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这太不尊重了，而且他今天就出来了

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他听起来更积极了

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这正好是amd股票，所以今天出现这种情况很有趣

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如果你昨晚在主频道看了视频

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让所有人观看主频道

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我两三个小时前发布了这个视频

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这将是千载难逢的行情启动

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我在那个视频里讨论了很多不同主题

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但我们在视频中详细谈到了amd

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我在视频里告诉过你

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关于amd我说

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我说

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看看这些华尔街人士

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这些分析师即将开始上调amd的评级周期

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股票在未来几个月将上涨

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他们上调价格目标会越来越多

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他们的评论会越来越积极

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就像整个游戏一样

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而今天就发生了

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如果你还没看那个视频

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一定要看那个

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视频结束后

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好的

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这就是关于那个视频的重要一课

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amd持续上涨

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我们关注292.90关口

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一旦突破

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将深入300上方

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好的

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这颗明星继续强劲上涨27%

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此时此刻

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从近期低点算起

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仅几周前就触及低点

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对比标普500指数

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现在涨幅约11%

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短期内仍将保持强势

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只要市场保持风险偏好

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你知道的

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如果市场回调

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稍微回撤一点

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所以我可能也会回撤一点

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但最终

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如果市场继续上行

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所以我可能跌破20

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然后回到25+30

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可能需要更多时间重返30+

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但嗯

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你知道的

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22和25在这里都很现实

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Honest remains

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你知道的

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继续上涨

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你们知道我对什么

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今年保持诚实

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我认为今年股票存在

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每股超过五美元时间会证明服务

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现在

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这类股票的销售

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继续复苏

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这也是值得看到的所以adobe也是如此

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我认为那些股票在昨晚的视频中为财报季布局得很好

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在主频道确实如此

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我实际上讨论了大约十只股票并为财报季做好了布局

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顺便说一下昨晚主频道的视频

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财务教育那真是精彩

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所以如果你没看到那个视频

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正如我说的

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务必查看那个视频

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呃

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当这个结束今天

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好的

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就大宗商品而言

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我想看看gsg

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不幸的是

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gsg今日上涨

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我们不希望看到这种情况

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至于科技巨头

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你知道这里面最好的股票是

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amd

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是的

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amd和oracle目前依然炙手可热

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这只股票正在强劲反弹

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苹果现在走势疲软

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苹果现在走势疲软的原因

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就是这个

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很多人寻求避险

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目前市场处于风险偏好模式

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因此人们想买入amd

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他们想买入oracle对吧

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他们转向saas相关股票

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这只股票在当前市场中被边缘化

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对了好的

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接下来是

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恐惧贪婪指数

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现在市场处于贪婪区间

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简直疯狂

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看看它如何从恐惧迅速切换到极端恐惧

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两周前我们处于极端恐惧状态

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我们处于恐惧阶段

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然后我们转向贪婪，难以置信

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对吧，那你觉得这说明什么

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这对未来市场意味着什么

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听着

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当前这个市场正处于关键节点

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我们正处于清晰的d型复苏阶段对吧

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请记住

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仍有很多人对市场保持谨慎和看空态度

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虽然现在我们已进入贪婪区域

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不要认为

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哦

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我们已到达顶点

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比如

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你知道的

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回想去年这个时候

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可以深入贪婪并持续一段时间

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这和长期处于极端恐惧并无不同

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没错，我们曾持续恐惧或极端恐惧一个多月甚至两个月

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所以请记住我们刚刚转向贪婪

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如果你认为我们无法在贪婪状态维持一个月或两个月

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是的

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我们完全可以做到

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这不是第一次发生这种情况对吧

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同样令人着迷，看看一年前此时

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极端恐惧达到十一级

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一年前

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难以置信

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现在

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AI投资者情绪

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最新数据表明当前处于何种水平

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42%

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仍有近43%的人对市场持看空态度

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未来六个月

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女士们先生们

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听着

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如果你看多

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这是好消息

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仍需保持谨慎对吧

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从历史平均值来看

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3.1%的投资者对市场持看空态度

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未来六个月

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我们现在是43%

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比正常水平高出约1200个基点

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再次强调

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如果你想看多市场

246
00:07:21,319 --> 00:07:22,100
这是好消息

247
00:07:22,100 --> 00:07:22,899
看看

248
00:07:22,899 --> 00:07:24,089
看看这个

249
00:07:24,089 --> 00:07:25,750
只有3.1%

250
00:07:25,750 --> 00:07:29,850
7%的投资者对市场未来六个月持看多态度

251
00:07:29,850 --> 00:07:33,069
历史平均值是三点七五

252
00:07:33,389 --> 00:07:35,509
如果你想看多市场

253
00:07:35,509 --> 00:07:39,290
这是你能得到的最佳数据 你必须进场

254
00:07:39,290 --> 00:07:41,230
这是一次明显的V型复苏

255
00:07:41,230 --> 00:07:42,949
我们刚刚重返历史新高

256
00:07:42,949 --> 00:07:43,889
以及标普五百指数

257
00:07:43,889 --> 00:07:45,670
这些股票表现如此强劲

258
00:07:45,670 --> 00:07:47,870
你需要像AMD那样表现

259
00:07:48,870 --> 00:07:49,500
对吧

260
00:07:49,500 --> 00:07:50,500
比如Meta

261
00:07:50,500 --> 00:07:51,360
比如亚马逊

262
00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:52,220
这些大市值股票

263
00:07:52,220 --> 00:07:53,879
微软正在复苏

264
00:07:53,879 --> 00:07:55,360
部分SaaS概念股

265
00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:56,959
这就是你需要关注的

266
00:07:56,959 --> 00:08:00,319
如果你想在春季和夏季看多市场

267
00:08:00,319 --> 00:08:07,819
没错 当投资者仍 overwhelmingly 看空时

268
00:08:07,819 --> 00:08:09,829
远低于通常的看多水平

269
00:08:09,829 --> 00:08:11,410
这是利好消息

270
00:08:11,410 --> 00:08:14,649
意味着仍有大量人转向看多

271
00:08:14,649 --> 00:08:15,790
来吧 各位

272
00:08:15,790 --> 00:08:16,908
让我们狂欢吧

273
00:08:16,908 --> 00:08:17,668
这里有很多

274
00:08:17,668 --> 00:08:19,928
还有很多人要加入这场派对

275
00:08:19,928 --> 00:08:20,288
他们

276
00:08:20,288 --> 00:08:21,369
仍站在外围

277
00:08:21,369 --> 00:08:22,928
我们是否要进去

278
00:08:22,928 --> 00:08:23,709
我不知道

279
00:08:23,709 --> 00:08:25,060
派对看起来

280
00:08:25,060 --> 00:08:25,860
可能很有趣

281
00:08:25,860 --> 00:08:26,540
但我不确定

282
00:08:26,540 --> 00:08:27,300
我害怕

283
00:08:27,300 --> 00:08:29,689
我可能在这派对玩过头

284
00:08:29,689 --> 00:08:31,329
这就是当前形势

285
00:08:31,329 --> 00:08:32,149
太神奇了

286
00:08:32,149 --> 00:08:33,129
嗯

287
00:08:33,129 --> 00:08:34,009
非常利好

288
00:08:34,009 --> 00:08:34,389
好的

289
00:08:34,389 --> 00:08:34,990
汤姆·李

290
00:08:34,990 --> 00:08:36,629
让我们听他的视频

291
00:08:36,629 --> 00:08:38,190
首席投资官

292
00:08:38,190 --> 00:08:39,850
也是CNBC嘉宾

293
00:08:39,850 --> 00:08:40,830
很高兴你回来

294
00:08:40,830 --> 00:08:41,440
欢迎

295
00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,078
在开始前

296
00:08:43,078 --> 00:08:44,958
今日置顶评论是

297
00:08:44,958 --> 00:08:46,698
如果你想申请加入我的私享股票小组

298
00:08:46,698 --> 00:08:47,318
私人财富小组

299
00:08:47,318 --> 00:08:48,479
获取千倍收益股票

300
00:08:48,479 --> 00:08:50,568
或私密Discord频道

301
00:08:50,568 --> 00:08:51,969
加入我们的AMD社区

302
00:08:51,969 --> 00:08:52,469
我是说

303
00:08:52,469 --> 00:08:52,908
你知道的

304
00:08:52,908 --> 00:08:54,889
看看它今天刚出现在那里

305
00:08:54,889 --> 00:08:58,379
你知道在发布各种不同类型内容方面

306
00:08:59,620 --> 00:09:01,059
今天很忙

307
00:09:01,059 --> 00:09:02,399
AMD聊天室的忙碌一天

308
00:09:02,399 --> 00:09:03,299
这绝对没错

309
00:09:03,299 --> 00:09:03,980
非常令人兴奋的一天

310
00:09:03,980 --> 00:09:06,789
但显然你可以访问所有我们的不同聊天室

311
00:09:06,789 --> 00:09:09,049
访问所有我的课程大纲

312
00:09:09,049 --> 00:09:11,629
访问面包屑标签页

313
00:09:11,629 --> 00:09:13,370
访问独家周视频

314
00:09:13,370 --> 00:09:14,710
千乘x股票网

315
00:09:14,710 --> 00:09:17,129
所有优质内容

316
00:09:17,129 --> 00:09:19,408
所以那将是下方的置顶评论

317
00:09:19,408 --> 00:09:21,548
然后我们会将你的专属会员卡寄到你家

318
00:09:21,548 --> 00:09:23,309
私密群组卡

319
00:09:23,590 --> 00:09:25,169
如果你终身加入我们

320
00:09:25,169 --> 00:09:28,149
你的黑卡只有少数人拥有

321
00:09:28,149 --> 00:09:31,500
然后我们还会寄送你的钢制千乘x卡

322
00:09:31,899 --> 00:09:35,019
我们现在有一个精美的礼品包装

323
00:09:35,019 --> 00:09:36,820
这是我很少提及的

324
00:09:36,820 --> 00:09:38,039
但你最终会看到的

325
00:09:38,039 --> 00:09:38,820
太棒了

326
00:09:38,820 --> 00:09:41,610
斯科特告诉我们你认为底部已经形成

327
00:09:41,610 --> 00:09:43,470
并且新高即将到来

328
00:09:43,470 --> 00:09:45,490
而现在我们到了这里

329
00:09:45,490 --> 00:09:48,259
嗯，什么

330
00:09:48,259 --> 00:09:48,840
我知道

331
00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,320
这听起来可能与其他人

332
00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:52,519
观众的想法相反

333
00:09:52,519 --> 00:09:56,149
但我认为今天的股市处于更好位置

334
00:09:56,149 --> 00:09:59,389
比今年早些时候创历史新高时

335
00:09:59,389 --> 00:10:06,210
因为我们现在看到美国股市能承受油价上涨

336
00:10:06,210 --> 00:10:08,379
虽然对其他国家造成伤害

337
00:10:08,379 --> 00:10:08,940
呃

338
00:10:08,940 --> 00:10:10,179
我们看到盈利增长

339
00:10:10,179 --> 00:10:15,389
因此我们感到安心，战争实际上在刺激经济

340
00:10:15,509 --> 00:10:16,769
第三点是

341
00:10:16,769 --> 00:10:19,110
我知道之前我谈过通胀冲击

342
00:10:19,110 --> 00:10:22,500
但我们回顾了油价飙升的历史

343
00:10:22,500 --> 00:10:25,299
对核心通胀的影响小于预期

344
00:10:25,299 --> 00:10:28,019
因此可能不会出现严重的通胀冲击

345
00:10:28,019 --> 00:10:32,059
我认为股票可能回升至7300点

346
00:10:32,059 --> 00:10:34,139
这是我们今年的基准预测

347
00:10:34,139 --> 00:10:36,740
在我们三阶段市场的框架下

348
00:10:36,740 --> 00:10:39,039
在可能看到更大回撤之前

349
00:10:39,039 --> 00:10:39,659
我听到了

350
00:10:39,659 --> 00:10:45,318
我听到你基本上在说美国在某种程度上因这场战争

351
00:10:45,318 --> 00:10:50,250
这是现在更不确定的社区里最好的房子

352
00:10:50,570 --> 00:10:51,210
没错

353
00:10:51,210 --> 00:10:51,809
这就是我们

354
00:10:51,809 --> 00:10:57,269
自2020年以来已向投资者抛出第七只黑天鹅

355
00:10:57,269 --> 00:11:02,149
现在我们看到美国能够应对中东灾难

356
00:11:02,149 --> 00:11:02,429
你知道的

357
00:11:02,429 --> 00:11:06,198
一个海峡关闭且石油无法获取的情况

358
00:11:06,198 --> 00:11:06,599
美国

359
00:11:06,599 --> 00:11:08,139
经济仍在运转

360
00:11:08,139 --> 00:11:12,649
而其他国家在谈论停摆和工厂关闭

361
00:11:12,850 --> 00:11:14,289
你并不会感到

362
00:11:14,289 --> 00:11:18,289
或者你并不担心自己可能对风险过于轻视

363
00:11:18,289 --> 00:11:21,370
因为战争仍存在的风险

364
00:11:21,950 --> 00:11:22,509
呃

365
00:11:22,509 --> 00:11:23,990
存在尾部风险

366
00:11:23,990 --> 00:11:26,950
我认为尾部风险的规模已缩小

367
00:11:26,950 --> 00:11:28,870
尾部指下行风险

368
00:11:28,870 --> 00:11:29,779
嗯

369
00:11:29,779 --> 00:11:31,320
而且我认为

370
00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,970
有很多人可信地指出

371
00:11:33,970 --> 00:11:36,970
冲击仍可能在美国登陆

372
00:11:36,970 --> 00:11:39,230
由于氦气和其他大宗商品

373
00:11:39,230 --> 00:11:40,789
我们在关注这件事斯科特

374
00:11:40,789 --> 00:11:44,340
但我也要说我们可能面临正面尾部风险

375
00:11:44,340 --> 00:11:47,850
如果能找到持久停火

376
00:11:47,850 --> 00:11:50,110
等等等等等等

377
00:11:50,110 --> 00:11:52,190
稍等片刻

378
00:11:52,190 --> 00:11:55,190
马上翻个面听我说

379
00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,440
未来几个月市场存在重大尾部风险

380
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:00,519
我们可能会遇到

381
00:12:00,519 --> 00:12:02,200
别太兴奋

382
00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:03,139
但可能性很大

383
00:12:03,139 --> 00:12:04,039
好的

384
00:12:04,039 --> 00:12:05,559
你注意到收益率了吗

385
00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:06,879
收益率依然很高

386
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:10,870
如果美债收益率下降

387
00:12:10,870 --> 00:12:12,169
中东局势逐渐缓和

388
00:12:12,169 --> 00:12:13,289
油价开始回落

389
00:12:13,289 --> 00:12:15,029
美债收益率下降

390
00:12:15,029 --> 00:12:19,240
而通胀数据持续好于预期

391
00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:20,240
收益率正在下跌

392
00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,529
这可能引发对

393
00:12:24,529 --> 00:12:25,009
哦

394
00:12:25,009 --> 00:12:25,470
国债

395
00:12:25,470 --> 00:12:26,629
收益率进一步下跌

396
00:12:26,629 --> 00:12:28,129
资金正流入股市

397
00:12:28,129 --> 00:12:32,440
所以我说这是现实可能性

398
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,789
未来3到6个月内可能性很大

399
00:12:35,789 --> 00:12:37,690
收益率下降

400
00:12:37,690 --> 00:12:38,769
国债价格下跌

401
00:12:38,769 --> 00:12:41,710
最终人们会从国债中撤出资金

402
00:12:41,710 --> 00:12:42,649
并将它们投入市场

403
00:12:42,649 --> 00:12:44,490
随着收益率下降

404
00:12:44,490 --> 00:12:45,889
不要对此过于兴奋

405
00:12:45,889 --> 00:12:47,789
但说实话这相当现实

406
00:12:47,789 --> 00:12:50,750
因此这可能对市场有很大帮助

407
00:12:50,750 --> 00:12:52,649
春末夏初之际

408
00:12:52,649 --> 00:12:55,070
冲击波迅速袭来

409
00:12:55,070 --> 00:12:58,229
实际上不会影响我们的基准预测

410
00:12:58,229 --> 00:12:58,928
你知道的

411
00:12:58,928 --> 00:13:02,969
纳斯达克正试图创下连续11个交易日上涨的最长纪录

412
00:13:02,969 --> 00:13:05,129
自2021年11月以来

413
00:13:05,129 --> 00:13:07,370
有些人如摩根大通认为

414
00:13:07,370 --> 00:13:09,549
别急着下结论

415
00:13:09,549 --> 00:13:13,250
纳斯达克是否迎来第12个连续上涨日

416
00:13:13,250 --> 00:13:15,129
让我们看看这里

417
00:13:15,129 --> 00:13:16,549
这太令人兴奋了

418
00:13:16,549 --> 00:13:19,019
是不是纳斯达克收盘全线收绿

419
00:13:19,019 --> 00:13:20,080
它收盘上涨了

420
00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:21,799
这意味着连续12个交易日

421
00:13:21,799 --> 00:13:23,349
我们现在处于

422
00:13:24,028 --> 00:13:26,149
天啊这可不是危险信号

423
00:13:26,149 --> 00:13:26,708
赌徒们

424
00:13:26,708 --> 00:13:28,849
下一波行情将强劲上涨

425
00:13:28,849 --> 00:13:30,668
科技股必须领涨

426
00:13:30,668 --> 00:13:32,629
你同意这个观点吗

427
00:13:32,990 --> 00:13:33,649
呃

428
00:13:33,649 --> 00:13:34,070
是的

429
00:13:34,070 --> 00:13:34,509
我们同意

430
00:13:34,509 --> 00:13:38,230
我认为人们仍需关注这一点

431
00:13:38,230 --> 00:13:40,830
自战争爆发以来哪些板块表现突出

432
00:13:40,830 --> 00:13:43,350
首先是以太坊和比特币

433
00:13:43,350 --> 00:13:44,429
这些属于加密货币

434
00:13:44,429 --> 00:13:46,620
但它们与科技股高度相关

435
00:13:46,620 --> 00:13:47,860
当然还有能源股

436
00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:51,840
以及软件板块

437
00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,659
因此我认为摩根大通的分析正确

438
00:13:54,659 --> 00:13:56,490
我认为科技是增长型板块

439
00:13:56,490 --> 00:13:57,950
当人们担忧增长时

440
00:13:57,950 --> 00:14:00,570
当然这也是最受冷落的板块

441
00:14:00,570 --> 00:14:03,509
因为这是被大量抛售的板块

442
00:14:03,509 --> 00:14:04,110
这是观点的一部分

443
00:14:04,110 --> 00:14:06,009
你将获得最佳业绩增长

444
00:14:06,009 --> 00:14:06,889
来自科技行业的增长

445
00:14:06,889 --> 00:14:08,649
今日有关此内容的更多分析

446
00:14:08,649 --> 00:14:12,059
同时估值已有所回落

447
00:14:12,059 --> 00:14:14,820
这些股票在某些人眼中

448
00:14:14,820 --> 00:14:18,419
不再像以前那样高估且更具吸引力

449
00:14:18,419 --> 00:14:21,580
因为盈利增长预期稳固

450
00:14:21,580 --> 00:14:23,279
如果不增长

451
00:14:23,610 --> 00:14:24,169
呃

452
00:14:24,169 --> 00:14:25,110
我是说听起来对

453
00:14:25,110 --> 00:14:25,730
斯科特这些

454
00:14:25,730 --> 00:14:28,259
这些公司拥有真正的护城河

455
00:14:28,259 --> 00:14:29,100
嗯

456
00:14:29,100 --> 00:14:29,779
如果增长

457
00:14:29,779 --> 00:14:32,240
 earnings 增长始终快于 sap

458
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,440
我认为它们将是人工智能领域的赢家之一

459
00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,159
在市场低位买入是正确的

460
00:14:37,159 --> 00:14:38,000
市盈率倍数意味着

461
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:39,129
五年后

462
00:14:39,129 --> 00:14:43,559
我觉得人们会惊讶他们能以如此低价买入

463
00:14:45,799 --> 00:14:47,039
再说一遍

464
00:14:47,039 --> 00:14:47,980
再说一遍

465
00:14:47,980 --> 00:14:48,559
嗯

466
00:14:48,559 --> 00:14:51,710
如果 earnings 增长始终快于 scp

467
00:14:51,710 --> 00:14:54,909
我认为它们将是人工智能领域的赢家之一

468
00:14:54,909 --> 00:14:56,629
在市场低位买入是正确的

469
00:14:56,629 --> 00:14:58,570
市盈率倍数意味着五年后

470
00:14:58,570 --> 00:15:04,909
我认为人们会看好因为 earnings 增长预期稳固甚至上升

471
00:15:05,070 --> 00:15:06,309
它们曾经是

472
00:15:06,309 --> 00:15:11,029
而且在某些人眼中不再像之前那样昂贵

473
00:15:11,029 --> 00:15:14,309
所以这些股票今天值得关注

474
00:15:14,309 --> 00:15:18,448
同时估值已大幅下跌

475
00:15:18,448 --> 00:15:21,849
部分观点认为科技股将获得最佳 earnings 增长

476
00:15:21,849 --> 00:15:23,609
今天还有更多分析提到这一点

477
00:15:23,609 --> 00:15:27,009
同时估值已大幅下跌

478
00:15:27,009 --> 00:15:29,769
所以这些股票在某些人眼中

479
00:15:29,769 --> 00:15:31,730
不再像以前那样昂贵

480
00:15:31,730 --> 00:15:36,519
而且更具吸引力因为 earnings 增长预期稳固

481
00:15:36,519 --> 00:15:38,220
如果增长

482
00:15:38,580 --> 00:15:39,120
呃

483
00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:40,059
我是说听起来对

484
00:15:40,059 --> 00:15:40,700
斯科特这些

485
00:15:40,700 --> 00:15:44,039
这些公司拥有真正的护城河 嗯

486
00:15:44,039 --> 00:15:47,200
它们 earnings 增长始终快于 scp

487
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,399
我认为它们将是人工智能领域的赢家之一

488
00:15:50,399 --> 00:15:52,120
在市场低位买入是正确的

489
00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,070
市盈率倍数意味着五年后

490
00:15:54,070 --> 00:15:58,970
我觉得人们会惊讶他们能以如此低价买入 嗯

491
00:15:58,970 --> 00:16:00,809
听着 听着 听着

492
00:16:01,889 --> 00:16:03,110
科技股有历史规律

493
00:16:03,110 --> 00:16:05,419
正如汤姆·李所说

494
00:16:05,419 --> 00:16:06,320
正如他所阐述的

495
00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,059
我们有股票抛售的历史

496
00:16:09,059 --> 00:16:11,220
可以追溯到科技泡沫时期

497
00:16:11,220 --> 00:16:15,339
早在两千年代末九十年代末这些股票大幅抛售

498
00:16:15,339 --> 00:16:16,859
被严重低估

499
00:16:16,859 --> 00:16:20,318
而这些公司的增长远超预期

500
00:16:20,318 --> 00:16:24,899
就这样我们有了三十多年的历史

501
00:16:24,899 --> 00:16:27,519
正是这样我才能分析所有这些软件相关股票

502
00:16:27,519 --> 00:16:29,399
像Salesforce就是一个完美例子

503
00:16:29,399 --> 00:16:32,029
我可以分析像苹果这样的股票

504
00:16:32,029 --> 00:16:33,379
微软

505
00:16:33,394 --> 00:16:34,480
亚马逊

506
00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:34,940
谷歌

507
00:16:34,940 --> 00:16:36,379
麦当劳meta之类的

508
00:16:36,379 --> 00:16:38,940
我们可以列举出这些公司的长长名单

509
00:16:38,940 --> 00:16:41,539
我们可以讨论英伟达到AMD的领域

510
00:16:41,539 --> 00:16:42,940
它们会大幅抛售

511
00:16:42,940 --> 00:16:46,940
而未来几年的增长远超预期

512
00:16:46,940 --> 00:16:49,250
再次人们感叹

513
00:16:49,250 --> 00:16:52,250
我们本应在这些价位买入这只股票

514
00:16:52,250 --> 00:16:54,169
而公司规模不断壮大

515
00:16:54,169 --> 00:16:55,289
越来越成功

516
00:16:55,289 --> 00:16:56,549
收入不断增加

517
00:16:56,549 --> 00:16:58,809
财务状况更健康

518
00:16:58,809 --> 00:17:01,330
并回购大量股份

519
00:17:01,330 --> 00:17:03,330
每股收益大幅增长

520
00:17:03,330 --> 00:17:05,210
这已有长期历史

521
00:17:05,210 --> 00:17:06,170
这并非新鲜事

522
00:17:06,170 --> 00:17:06,670
所以

523
00:17:06,670 --> 00:17:07,460
嗯

524
00:17:07,460 --> 00:17:08,099
是的

525
00:17:08,099 --> 00:17:08,299
嗯

526
00:17:08,299 --> 00:17:08,940
汤姆·李在场

527
00:17:08,940 --> 00:17:10,180
这都是事实

528
00:17:10,180 --> 00:17:13,359
让我们谈谈如何在历史高点构建投资策略

529
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,199
我们全面看涨

530
00:17:15,199 --> 00:17:17,219
我们已突破历史新高

531
00:17:17,219 --> 00:17:20,719
埃德加·邓尼表示市场在3月30日触底

532
00:17:20,719 --> 00:17:23,318
如果汤姆·李更进一步分析

533
00:17:23,318 --> 00:17:24,818
昨日收盘时

534
00:17:24,818 --> 00:17:26,199
请听这个

535
00:17:28,599 --> 00:17:31,579
我知道这可能与其他人

536
00:17:31,579 --> 00:17:32,700
观众的想法相左

537
00:17:32,700 --> 00:17:33,259
这有点有趣

538
00:17:33,259 --> 00:17:34,819
我们刚看完汤姆·李

539
00:17:34,819 --> 00:17:38,359
我认为当前股市状况更好

540
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:39,880
比今年早些时候

541
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:41,920
当它创下历史新高时

542
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:42,619
嗯

543
00:17:42,619 --> 00:17:43,259
好的

544
00:17:43,259 --> 00:17:47,019
他说市场证明能应对油价飙升

545
00:17:47,019 --> 00:17:50,029
盈利依然稳健且持续增长

546
00:17:50,029 --> 00:17:52,730
你同意李先生的观点吗

547
00:17:52,730 --> 00:17:56,509
在市场解读层面我无法反对

548
00:17:56,509 --> 00:17:58,329
我们所见的变化

549
00:17:58,329 --> 00:18:00,130
最近确实是个定局

550
00:18:00,130 --> 00:18:01,690
我不知道结果会不会这样

551
00:18:01,690 --> 00:18:04,190
但我们已经重新梳理了整个

552
00:18:04,190 --> 00:18:04,789
呃

553
00:18:04,789 --> 00:18:06,029
战争的开端

554
00:18:06,029 --> 00:18:07,559
价格波动加剧

555
00:18:07,559 --> 00:18:08,460
并非所有股票

556
00:18:08,460 --> 00:18:10,119
我们稍后会详细分析

557
00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,099
但我觉得接下来的考验将是

558
00:18:13,099 --> 00:18:15,319
这些财报是否足以证明

559
00:18:15,319 --> 00:18:16,659
我们所看到的反弹

560
00:18:19,490 --> 00:18:20,950
而这些财报

561
00:18:20,950 --> 00:18:23,690
这些公司不仅非常重要

562
00:18:23,690 --> 00:18:26,490
从指数权重统计来看

563
00:18:26,490 --> 00:18:28,960
但这些财报的增长来自

564
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:30,019
不仅这些公司

565
00:18:30,019 --> 00:18:32,339
还有整个生态系统

566
00:18:32,339 --> 00:18:37,430
这些公司通过AI资本支出推动的生态

567
00:18:37,430 --> 00:18:37,789
是的

568
00:18:37,789 --> 00:18:41,970
但女士们先生们更重要的事是

569
00:18:41,970 --> 00:18:45,039
以及电话会议中的发言内容

570
00:18:45,039 --> 00:18:46,400
像最近的数字

571
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:47,720
他们即将公布的财报

572
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:49,559
你知道他们营收增长了多少

573
00:18:49,559 --> 00:18:50,400
每股收益

574
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,750
这当然很重要

575
00:18:52,750 --> 00:18:55,549
我只是说目前市场处于

576
00:18:55,549 --> 00:19:00,388
市场更关注四五月六月的数据

577
00:19:00,388 --> 00:19:03,249
鉴于中东局势动荡

578
00:19:03,249 --> 00:19:04,888
这就是

579
00:19:04,888 --> 00:19:07,750
这就是这些股票真正会动向的

580
00:19:07,750 --> 00:19:09,069
如果指引数据良好

581
00:19:09,069 --> 00:19:10,670
以及电话会议中的评论

582
00:19:10,670 --> 00:19:12,589
你很可能在本季表现更佳

583
00:19:12,589 --> 00:19:14,579
如果情况不稳定

584
00:19:14,579 --> 00:19:16,000
那我们将看到

585
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,289
但我要说的是这就像

586
00:19:18,289 --> 00:19:21,569
我认为本季度关键的75%重要性

587
00:19:21,569 --> 00:19:24,410
在于你上季度的营收和每股收益表现

588
00:19:24,410 --> 00:19:25,430
我认为这仅占约两

589
00:19:25,430 --> 00:19:29,430
百分之五的重要性

590
00:19:29,430 --> 00:19:31,630
无论是科技巨头

591
00:19:31,630 --> 00:19:32,470
思科公司

592
00:19:32,470 --> 00:19:33,150
还是思科

593
00:19:33,150 --> 00:19:34,609
或是半导体公司

594
00:19:34,609 --> 00:19:36,869
这才是核心故事

595
00:19:36,869 --> 00:19:39,130
现在还不宜宣布胜利

596
00:19:39,130 --> 00:19:39,849
呃

597
00:19:39,849 --> 00:19:44,808
我认为股价与消费者信心出现巨大分歧很有趣

598
00:19:44,808 --> 00:19:47,388
股票与消费者情绪的分化

599
00:19:47,388 --> 00:19:50,929
我不经常在密歇根大学消费者信心指数上交易

600
00:19:50,929 --> 00:19:52,420
但必须提到这一点

601
00:19:52,420 --> 00:19:56,059
当前数据比三月份下降了10%

602
00:19:56,059 --> 00:19:59,599
信心下降主要源于通胀激增

603
00:19:59,599 --> 00:20:01,500
尤其是汽油价格

604
00:20:01,500 --> 00:20:03,960
受访者看到价格上涨了四个百分点

605
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:04,940
8%

606
00:20:04,940 --> 00:20:05,559
嗯

607
00:20:05,559 --> 00:20:06,599
一年后

608
00:20:06,599 --> 00:20:10,759
因此他们认为当前通胀将持续更久

609
00:20:10,759 --> 00:20:13,140
比华尔街分析师的预期更顽固

610
00:20:13,140 --> 00:20:19,829
他们正在上调各行业公司的共识盈利预测

611
00:20:19,829 --> 00:20:22,089
我们还不知道谁会正确

612
00:20:22,089 --> 00:20:25,029
这只是巨大的分歧

613
00:20:25,029 --> 00:20:26,909
这种现象非常反常

614
00:20:26,929 --> 00:20:31,148
我们将观察公司评论是否支持这一观点

615
00:20:31,148 --> 00:20:31,628
并提供依据

616
00:20:31,628 --> 00:20:31,868
是的

617
00:20:31,868 --> 00:20:34,660
我们认为这很重要吗

618
00:20:34,660 --> 00:20:35,500
所有人都明白这一点

619
00:20:35,500 --> 00:20:37,500
关于通胀与股市的关系

620
00:20:38,539 --> 00:20:42,440
股市实际上喜欢适度通胀

621
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:43,700
但不会失控

622
00:20:43,700 --> 00:20:46,180
像2022年那样的通胀

623
00:20:46,180 --> 00:20:46,460
没错

624
00:20:46,460 --> 00:20:47,359
情况就是这样

625
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:47,779
你知道的

626
00:20:47,779 --> 00:20:48,519
这样的离谱数据

627
00:20:48,519 --> 00:20:51,159
美联储必须快速加息

628
00:20:51,398 --> 00:20:55,959
但市场能接受3%或3.5%的CPI

629
00:20:55,959 --> 00:20:56,789
甚至如此

630
00:20:56,789 --> 00:20:57,589
或者

631
00:20:57,589 --> 00:20:58,250
2.7%

632
00:20:58,250 --> 00:20:59,029
类似这样的水平

633
00:20:59,029 --> 00:21:00,170
市场并不介意

634
00:21:00,170 --> 00:21:01,210
归根结底

635
00:21:01,210 --> 00:21:01,769
这些公司

636
00:21:01,769 --> 00:21:05,109
最终将赚取更多利润

637
00:21:05,109 --> 00:21:05,940
他们最终

638
00:21:05,940 --> 00:21:07,720
这些公司将拥有定价权

639
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:08,480
所有优质企业

640
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:09,220
至少目前

641
00:21:09,220 --> 00:21:10,319
具备定价能力

642
00:21:10,319 --> 00:21:11,680
将提高产品价格

643
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,460
最终获得更多收益

644
00:21:13,460 --> 00:21:16,839
提升利润率并大幅增加利润

645
00:21:16,839 --> 00:21:18,119
这意味着利润增长

646
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:18,720
每股收益

647
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:19,079
将上升

648
00:21:19,079 --> 00:21:19,559
因此

649
00:21:19,559 --> 00:21:21,740
你知道通货膨胀

650
00:21:21,740 --> 00:21:22,819
你知道的

651
00:21:22,819 --> 00:21:25,259
消费者当然不喜欢

652
00:21:25,259 --> 00:21:26,660
但企业

653
00:21:26,660 --> 00:21:27,869
它们并不在意

654
00:21:27,869 --> 00:21:30,069
你知道如果必须告诉企业

655
00:21:30,069 --> 00:21:33,079
你更愿意未来十年保持2%的CPI

656
00:21:33,079 --> 00:21:35,299
还是未来十年3%的CPI

657
00:21:35,299 --> 00:21:36,000
说实话

658
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,500
从数学上看3%会更好

659
00:21:39,500 --> 00:21:41,160
4%甚至更好

660
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:41,480
现在

661
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:42,200
一旦超过这个

662
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:43,140
就会面临风险

663
00:21:43,140 --> 00:21:43,819
哦糟糕

664
00:21:43,819 --> 00:21:45,140
美联储可能得加息

665
00:21:45,140 --> 00:21:47,720
这对经济将是重大打击

666
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:48,359
对股市

667
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:49,019
这些情况

668
00:21:49,019 --> 00:21:50,980
这就需要这种微妙平衡

669
00:21:50,980 --> 00:21:54,028
什么是帮助企业的最佳通胀水平

670
00:21:54,028 --> 00:21:56,789
又不让美联储加息

671
00:21:56,789 --> 00:21:57,269
凯瑞

672
00:21:57,269 --> 00:21:57,470
这个

673
00:21:57,470 --> 00:21:58,269
正如汤姆·李所说

674
00:21:58,269 --> 00:22:02,329
如今股市比年初状况更好

675
00:22:02,329 --> 00:22:04,130
当时创历史新高时

676
00:22:04,130 --> 00:22:05,589
你同意这个说法吗

677
00:22:05,589 --> 00:22:06,230
嗯

678
00:22:06,230 --> 00:22:09,470
这个说法可能有不同含义

679
00:22:09,470 --> 00:22:15,490
如果我们讨论标普指数及其成分股的收益

680
00:22:15,490 --> 00:22:19,939
现在是否比年初状况更好

681
00:22:19,939 --> 00:22:22,038
我不太同意这个观点

682
00:22:22,038 --> 00:22:23,318
收益和预期都在上涨

683
00:22:23,318 --> 00:22:23,919
但假如我问

684
00:22:23,919 --> 00:22:25,309
如果我回来问你

685
00:22:25,309 --> 00:22:25,670
好的

686
00:22:25,670 --> 00:22:26,869
显然有些微妙

687
00:22:26,869 --> 00:22:28,400
但如果我说

688
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:32,960
由于市场回调，估值实际已下降

689
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:33,519
是的

690
00:22:33,519 --> 00:22:35,119
从这个角度看

691
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:35,579
是的

692
00:22:35,579 --> 00:22:38,019
你能论证现在状况更好吗

693
00:22:38,019 --> 00:22:40,259
经济其实没太大变化

694
00:22:40,259 --> 00:22:42,420
收益预期也没变

695
00:22:42,420 --> 00:22:43,920
但估值变了

696
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,220
所以对我们来说

697
00:22:46,220 --> 00:22:47,559
因为我们

698
00:22:47,559 --> 00:22:48,500
我会说

699
00:22:48,500 --> 00:22:49,069
嗯

700
00:22:49,069 --> 00:22:52,029
更注重增长而非价值

701
00:22:52,029 --> 00:22:54,690
市场似乎出现了分化

702
00:22:54,690 --> 00:22:58,309
这与更广泛的市场情绪有关

703
00:23:05,808 --> 00:23:07,308
它们的估值倍数下降了

704
00:23:07,308 --> 00:23:09,388
出现了一波大幅上涨

705
00:23:09,388 --> 00:23:10,009
嗯

706
00:23:10,009 --> 00:23:17,650
在乔什命名的光环股中，科技股名称承受了压力

707
00:23:17,650 --> 00:23:20,089
我们认为这已过度反应

708
00:23:20,089 --> 00:23:23,559
我们认为这些股票被过度抛售

709
00:23:23,559 --> 00:23:25,079
虽然这有一定道理

710
00:23:25,079 --> 00:23:27,519
但在其他四九三指标中已得到修正

711
00:23:27,519 --> 00:23:31,059
比如卡特彼勒、德事、爱默生

712
00:23:31,059 --> 00:23:35,359
电气股以32倍市盈率，谷歌以22倍市盈率出售

713
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,819
显然需要整体校准

714
00:23:37,819 --> 00:23:39,500
我们现在已实现这一点

715
00:23:39,500 --> 00:23:44,680
我认为关键因素在于科技股

716
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,319
最大名称占市场30%

717
00:23:46,319 --> 00:23:47,579
占市场5%份额

718
00:23:47,579 --> 00:23:50,109
市场离不开它们

719
00:23:50,109 --> 00:23:52,349
它们并不大量消耗石油

720
00:23:52,349 --> 00:23:55,390
并非能源大用户

721
00:23:55,390 --> 00:23:57,699
其余标普成分股的情况

722
00:23:57,699 --> 00:24:00,598
若观察科技股需求

723
00:24:00,598 --> 00:24:01,919
这些特定名称

724
00:24:01,919 --> 00:24:03,719
可能仅占0.5%

725
00:24:03,719 --> 00:24:04,960
占0.5%

726
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:09,569
仅占全国总石油需求的0.5%

727
00:24:09,569 --> 00:24:10,490
这很有趣

728
00:24:10,490 --> 00:24:11,190
摩根大通

729
00:24:11,190 --> 00:24:14,900
摩根杂志昨日贡献了90%的PX涨幅

730
00:24:14,900 --> 00:24:17,180
在创纪录的行情中

731
00:24:17,180 --> 00:24:17,599
顺便说一句

732
00:24:17,599 --> 00:24:20,279
纳斯达克连续12日上涨

733
00:24:20,279 --> 00:24:25,119
这是自2009年夏季以来最长连涨

734
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:29,259
摩根零售雷达显示科技股资金流入最大

735
00:24:29,259 --> 00:24:31,460
自解放日之后一周

736
00:24:31,460 --> 00:24:34,220
这完全符合卡莉的分析

737
00:24:34,220 --> 00:24:37,839
再加上估值修复的点睛之笔

738
00:24:37,839 --> 00:24:39,660
估值也已压缩

739
00:24:39,660 --> 00:24:40,220
我想

740
00:24:40,220 --> 00:24:41,559
我想确认

741
00:24:41,559 --> 00:24:44,309
当我们说科技日益

742
00:24:44,309 --> 00:24:44,970
这是一个

743
00:24:44,970 --> 00:24:47,210
这是两大科技领域的故事

744
00:24:47,210 --> 00:24:48,369
嗯

745
00:24:48,369 --> 00:24:51,019
颠覆者与被颠覆者

746
00:24:51,019 --> 00:24:51,779
本质上是

747
00:24:51,779 --> 00:24:53,960
我总结为芯片与软件

748
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,519
这显然是一个过度概括

749
00:24:55,519 --> 00:24:57,099
但我认为这真的很有趣

750
00:24:57,099 --> 00:24:59,319
市场底部出现在3月30日

751
00:24:59,319 --> 00:25:00,009
好的

752
00:25:00,890 --> 00:25:05,269
即使我们看到了MH的大幅反弹

753
00:25:05,269 --> 00:25:08,799
半导体仍跑赢ITV

754
00:25:08,799 --> 00:25:10,440
自3月30日底部以来

755
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,480
我不认为大多数人这么认为

756
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:13,559
很多人认为

757
00:25:13,559 --> 00:25:13,759
哦

758
00:25:13,759 --> 00:25:16,240
软件板块出现了巨大反弹

759
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:17,500
这并不正确

760
00:25:17,500 --> 00:25:18,240
核心要点

761
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,000
因此主趋势仍是科技板块

762
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,470
MH上涨了22%

763
00:25:23,470 --> 00:25:24,730
简直难以置信

764
00:25:24,730 --> 00:25:26,329
自3月30日低点以来

765
00:25:26,329 --> 00:25:27,509
这就像两周前的事

766
00:25:27,509 --> 00:25:29,190
IGV上涨至

767
00:25:29,190 --> 00:25:30,980
但仅上涨9%

768
00:25:30,980 --> 00:25:31,980
我明白你的意思

769
00:25:31,980 --> 00:25:32,619
ITV板块

770
00:25:32,619 --> 00:25:32,980
顺便说一句

771
00:25:32,980 --> 00:25:33,900
只是提一下

772
00:25:33,900 --> 00:25:36,528
本周上涨了13%

773
00:25:36,528 --> 00:25:38,449
但你并没有在强调

774
00:25:38,449 --> 00:25:41,210
本周V类股票表现强劲

775
00:25:41,210 --> 00:25:43,730
其他板块上周也大涨

776
00:25:43,730 --> 00:25:44,750
是的

777
00:25:44,750 --> 00:25:45,930
IGV仍偏弱

778
00:25:45,930 --> 00:25:47,170
当整体复苏时

779
00:25:47,170 --> 00:25:52,660
首周非颠覆性AI板块表现翻倍

780
00:25:52,660 --> 00:25:57,769
尽管IGV在3月30日经历了34%的回撤

781
00:25:57,769 --> 00:25:58,950
这也是惊人的

782
00:25:58,950 --> 00:26:01,730
SMH仅回撤14%

783
00:26:01,730 --> 00:26:02,890
半导体仍上涨

784
00:26:02,890 --> 00:26:03,929
关键点在于

785
00:26:03,929 --> 00:26:07,608
这不是现在调整投资组合的信号

786
00:26:07,608 --> 00:26:09,509
让我买入所有被重挫的股票

787
00:26:09,509 --> 00:26:11,299
赢家仍在持续领先

788
00:26:11,299 --> 00:26:14,650
半导体跌幅远小于ITV

789
00:26:14,650 --> 00:26:16,170
最奇怪的事情发生了

790
00:26:16,170 --> 00:26:18,609
这与Josh Brown当前讨论的内容相关

791
00:26:18,609 --> 00:26:21,509
软件股与半导体股的对比

792
00:26:21,509 --> 00:26:24,109
博通、AMD、英伟达等

793
00:26:24,109 --> 00:26:25,250
这类股票与

794
00:26:25,250 --> 00:26:25,750
你知道的

795
00:26:25,750 --> 00:26:27,109
Salesforce和ServiceNow

796
00:26:27,109 --> 00:26:29,250
以及所有相关软件股

797
00:26:29,250 --> 00:26:31,130
我们正处于多么奇特的时期

798
00:26:31,130 --> 00:26:33,450
我们现在正发生着令人着迷的事情

799
00:26:34,450 --> 00:26:38,089
芯片股通常被视为避险资产

800
00:26:38,089 --> 00:26:40,670
目前它们被视为更安全的投资

801
00:26:40,670 --> 00:26:42,269
这并不常见

802
00:26:42,269 --> 00:26:46,390
软件股一直被认为是芯片股之间更安全的投资

803
00:26:46,390 --> 00:26:47,809
因为软件股具有非常

804
00:26:47,809 --> 00:26:48,450
你知道的

805
00:26:48,450 --> 00:26:49,230
商业模式

806
00:26:49,230 --> 00:26:49,569
我是说

807
00:26:49,569 --> 00:26:50,930
他们拥有世界上最优秀的商业模式

808
00:26:50,930 --> 00:26:51,349
没错

809
00:26:51,349 --> 00:26:53,109
他们的轻资产模式

810
00:26:53,109 --> 00:26:55,170
他们拥有非常可预测的营收

811
00:26:55,170 --> 00:26:57,779
客户持续续约

812
00:26:57,779 --> 00:26:59,539
年复一年地续约

813
00:26:59,539 --> 00:27:03,440
半导体行业波动剧烈

814
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:04,839
下一分钟又冰冷如冰

815
00:27:04,839 --> 00:27:06,480
市场波动极大

816
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:10,210
对的，有时能收取高昂价格

817
00:27:10,210 --> 00:27:12,450
下一分钟价格暴跌

818
00:27:12,450 --> 00:27:13,619
没错

819
00:27:14,180 --> 00:27:16,299
但此刻我们处于特殊时期

820
00:27:16,299 --> 00:27:18,339
软件领域现在令人担忧

821
00:27:18,339 --> 00:27:20,140
因为不确定是否会遭遇颠覆

822
00:27:20,140 --> 00:27:21,259
人们不断提出各种问题

823
00:27:21,259 --> 00:27:22,380
这家公司是否被颠覆

824
00:27:22,380 --> 00:27:23,210
这家公司

825
00:27:23,210 --> 00:27:26,049
最终许多公司并未被颠覆

826
00:27:26,049 --> 00:27:29,009
反而会大幅受益于这一趋势

827
00:27:29,009 --> 00:27:31,309
但从投资角度看

828
00:27:31,309 --> 00:27:32,910
我也不确定

829
00:27:32,910 --> 00:27:33,829
存在诸多疑问

830
00:27:33,829 --> 00:27:34,589
大量问题待解

831
00:27:35,589 --> 00:27:36,849
半导体行业没有这些问题

832
00:27:36,849 --> 00:27:39,380
半导体行业就像

833
00:27:39,380 --> 00:27:42,440
所有人都需要这些芯片数年

834
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:47,000
因为我们正在建设整个基础设施且芯片持续升级

835
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:48,279
并将需要更换

836
00:27:48,279 --> 00:27:48,980
下一代

837
00:27:48,980 --> 00:27:49,460
下一代

838
00:27:49,460 --> 00:27:49,960
下一代

839
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,299
这正是特殊时期

840
00:27:52,299 --> 00:27:53,880
但像博通

841
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:58,859
AMD和英伟达等股票被视为更安全

842
00:27:58,859 --> 00:28:01,519
比SaaS股票更安全

843
00:28:01,519 --> 00:28:02,140
股票

844
00:28:02,140 --> 00:28:03,339
这实在太奇怪了

845
00:28:03,339 --> 00:28:06,140
在我十七年以上的市场经验中

846
00:28:06,140 --> 00:28:08,059
从未出现过这种情况

847
00:28:08,420 --> 00:28:10,799
从未有过这样的情况

848
00:28:10,799 --> 00:28:13,480
这简直像在发生怪事

849
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,730
所以这会持续吗

850
00:28:16,730 --> 00:28:18,369
我觉得长期不会持续

851
00:28:19,490 --> 00:28:20,230
长期来看

852
00:28:20,230 --> 00:28:21,829
我认为情况会回归常态

853
00:28:21,829 --> 00:28:25,089
而SaaS将重新被视为安全资产

854
00:28:25,089 --> 00:28:28,180
而半导体将不再被视为安全资产

855
00:28:28,180 --> 00:28:29,380
这是更长期的趋势

856
00:28:30,420 --> 00:28:33,109
但眼下就是这样

857
00:28:33,109 --> 00:28:34,329
所以你知道的

858
00:28:34,329 --> 00:28:35,289
这可能能维持

859
00:28:35,289 --> 00:28:37,190
可能持续六个月

860
00:28:37,190 --> 00:28:37,809
十二个月

861
00:28:37,809 --> 00:28:39,940
两年左右

862
00:28:39,940 --> 00:28:43,000
但我不认为能持续十年

863
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:44,119
接下来十年

864
00:28:44,119 --> 00:28:46,980
我认为一切会回归SaaS的安全属性

865
00:28:46,980 --> 00:28:48,240
至少最好的

866
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:49,089
最好的SaaS

867
00:28:49,089 --> 00:28:53,740
而半导体则成为避险情绪下的风险标的

868
00:28:53,740 --> 00:28:55,420
它们反弹幅度更大

869
00:28:55,420 --> 00:28:56,599
现在你可能会说

870
00:28:56,599 --> 00:28:57,180
一个估值低

871
00:28:57,180 --> 00:28:57,960
一个估值高

872
00:28:57,960 --> 00:28:59,700
啊哈不

873
00:28:59,700 --> 00:29:02,970
从加权平均市盈率看

874
00:29:02,970 --> 00:29:04,490
IGV为三倍

875
00:29:04,490 --> 00:29:05,569
相当于两倍盈利

876
00:29:05,569 --> 00:29:07,349
MH为三点七倍

877
00:29:07,349 --> 00:29:09,630
如果我们观察市场中位数股票

878
00:29:09,630 --> 00:29:13,078
在科技市场两大板块中

879
00:29:13,078 --> 00:29:16,450
软件股的中位数前向市盈率为十九

880
00:29:16,450 --> 00:29:19,049
半导体板块的中位数前向市盈率

881
00:29:19,049 --> 00:29:20,589
SMH标的为二点二倍

882
00:29:20,589 --> 00:29:20,849
好的

883
00:29:20,849 --> 00:29:21,789
所以你是在说我们并不

884
00:29:21,789 --> 00:29:23,099
它们并不更便宜

885
00:29:23,099 --> 00:29:25,440
在下行市场表现更好

886
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,319
然后在反弹时表现更佳

887
00:29:27,319 --> 00:29:28,259
为什么要告诉我

888
00:29:28,259 --> 00:29:30,509
稍安勿躁

889
00:29:30,509 --> 00:29:31,250
让我们

890
00:29:34,049 --> 00:29:35,009
看看这个

891
00:29:35,009 --> 00:29:35,390
好的

892
00:29:35,390 --> 00:29:36,319
等等

893
00:29:36,319 --> 00:29:36,920
好的

894
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:37,440
女士们先生们

895
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:37,839
调出

896
00:29:37,839 --> 00:29:39,279
Thousand X Talks.com

897
00:29:39,279 --> 00:29:41,720
我们切换到比较功能

898
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:42,299
好的

899
00:29:42,299 --> 00:29:43,180
所以我们将

900
00:29:43,180 --> 00:29:44,339
我们会继续跟进

901
00:29:44,339 --> 00:29:46,259
AMD和英伟达

902
00:29:46,259 --> 00:29:47,099
你知道的

903
00:29:47,099 --> 00:29:48,740
这就是我要提出反对意见的地方

904
00:29:48,740 --> 00:29:49,299
呃

905
00:29:49,299 --> 00:29:51,829
现在有很多软件股被严重低估了

906
00:29:51,829 --> 00:29:53,279
现在非常便宜

907
00:29:53,279 --> 00:29:55,599
我指的是Salesforce在144美元价位

908
00:29:55,599 --> 00:29:55,880
你知道的

909
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:57,420
AMD现在股价41美元

910
00:29:57,420 --> 00:29:59,140
AMD已经大幅超越预期

911
00:29:59,140 --> 00:30:00,990
Salesforce更是如此

912
00:30:00,990 --> 00:30:01,910
嗯，英伟达

913
00:30:01,910 --> 00:30:02,769
股价26美元

914
00:30:02,769 --> 00:30:06,789
这些SaaS相关股票交易非常

915
00:30:06,789 --> 00:30:07,549
非常便宜

916
00:30:07,549 --> 00:30:09,349
极其便宜

917
00:30:10,549 --> 00:30:13,349
AMD市盈率20倍以下，两年低点

918
00:30:13,349 --> 00:30:14,679
天啊

919
00:30:14,679 --> 00:30:15,298
呃

920
00:30:15,298 --> 00:30:17,058
我们先打开ServiceNow

921
00:30:17,058 --> 00:30:19,179
ServiceNow拥有惊人的增长速度

922
00:30:19,179 --> 00:30:23,960
没错，当前市盈率224倍

923
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,660
核心结论是SaaS股票

924
00:30:28,660 --> 00:30:29,960
其中很多严重被低估

925
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:30,440
现在

926
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:31,200
ServiceNow

927
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:31,900
Salesforce

928
00:30:31,900 --> 00:30:33,779
Adobe这类公司

929
00:30:33,779 --> 00:30:34,799
它们极其便宜

930
00:30:34,799 --> 00:30:35,220
嗯

931
00:30:36,420 --> 00:30:36,619
你知道的

932
00:30:36,619 --> 00:30:38,559
我不知道该怎么形容

933
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,160
但很有趣的是

934
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,160
我惊讶这些股票两年市盈率还没更高

935
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,990
同时要记住像英伟达、AMD

936
00:30:45,990 --> 00:30:49,430
尤其是未来两年将大幅超越业绩

937
00:30:50,420 --> 00:30:53,220
这简直疯狂

938
00:30:53,980 --> 00:30:54,900
但听我说

939
00:30:54,900 --> 00:30:56,700
现在可以有力论证

940
00:30:56,700 --> 00:30:59,019
AMD被低估了

941
00:31:01,279 --> 00:31:02,079
这太疯狂了

942
00:31:03,319 --> 00:31:04,160
这真的太疯狂了

943
00:31:06,839 --> 00:31:07,509
哇

944
00:31:07,509 --> 00:31:08,450
在我们的观众中

945
00:31:08,450 --> 00:31:10,970
正如我在昨日主频道视频中提到的

946
00:31:10,970 --> 00:31:13,150
就在两小时前发布时

947
00:31:13,150 --> 00:31:14,170
这是一次千载难逢的机会

948
00:31:14,170 --> 00:31:15,039
刚刚开始

949
00:31:15,039 --> 00:31:19,720
我展示了AMD股票未来几年的预测数据

950
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,799
等你看到这些预测就明白了

951
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,339
AMD目前实际估值偏低

952
00:31:25,339 --> 00:31:25,839
现在这个情况

953
00:31:25,839 --> 00:31:26,799
简直疯狂

954
00:31:26,799 --> 00:31:27,119
不过

955
00:31:27,119 --> 00:31:28,960
你看这波涨幅有多大

956
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,659
你会觉得明显被高估了

957
00:31:31,659 --> 00:31:33,199
实际上它估值偏低

958
00:31:33,199 --> 00:31:34,598
基于我的估值分析

959
00:31:34,598 --> 00:31:36,618
我预测这只股票未来几年走势

960
00:31:36,618 --> 00:31:38,659
目前定价极具吸引力

961
00:31:38,659 --> 00:31:39,859
仍然被吸引

962
00:31:39,859 --> 00:31:41,000
我不认同这些

963
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,039
我彻底放弃再补仓了

964
00:31:43,039 --> 00:31:44,240
在软件股领域

965
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:45,619
我真是

966
00:31:45,619 --> 00:31:46,660
看看这些名字

967
00:31:46,660 --> 00:31:49,279
本周表现最突出

968
00:31:49,279 --> 00:31:49,460
嗯

969
00:31:49,460 --> 00:31:50,839
Orle上涨了29%

970
00:31:50,839 --> 00:31:52,220
但Palantir涨了近13%

971
00:31:52,220 --> 00:31:53,599
Crowdstrike涨了11%

972
00:31:53,599 --> 00:31:55,519
Palo Alto和Salesforce

973
00:31:55,519 --> 00:31:58,079
Snowflake本周涨21%

974
00:31:58,079 --> 00:31:59,000
ServiceNow

975
00:31:59,000 --> 00:31:59,920
涨幅超16%

976
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:01,469
嗯

977
00:32:01,469 --> 00:32:04,509
这下跌了50%

978
00:32:04,509 --> 00:32:05,299
但像

979
00:32:05,299 --> 00:32:07,000
这种背景

980
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,339
这些领域并非没有机会

981
00:32:10,339 --> 00:32:12,759
没有人否定我们的观点

982
00:32:12,759 --> 00:32:16,088
如果这是关于你想下注的

983
00:32:16,088 --> 00:32:20,769
随着第二季度下半段到来

984
00:32:20,769 --> 00:32:26,950
最佳机会未必在最惨跌的股票

985
00:32:26,950 --> 00:32:28,470
你在看这些

986
00:32:28,470 --> 00:32:29,430
软件股名称

987
00:32:29,430 --> 00:32:30,930
或者你不同意

988
00:32:30,930 --> 00:32:31,769
当它们启动时

989
00:32:31,769 --> 00:32:32,789
大家都会喊跌

990
00:32:32,789 --> 00:32:33,910
大家又会喊跌

991
00:32:33,910 --> 00:32:34,650
当它们反转时

992
00:32:34,650 --> 00:32:36,069
你同意这个观点吗

993
00:32:36,069 --> 00:32:38,269
我们持有微软

994
00:32:38,269 --> 00:32:39,230
我们持有

995
00:32:39,230 --> 00:32:40,109
这感觉不太好

996
00:32:40,109 --> 00:32:40,430
我意思是

997
00:32:40,430 --> 00:32:42,029
除了本周外这感觉都不好

998
00:32:42,029 --> 00:32:43,069
情况并不理想

999
00:32:43,069 --> 00:32:46,450
但它依然在每个人的笔记本电脑上

1000
00:32:46,450 --> 00:32:48,789
它依然主导着我们的沟通方式

1001
00:32:48,789 --> 00:32:52,839
它仍是垂直领域中非常庞大的领导者

1002
00:32:52,839 --> 00:32:54,140
你知道你根本无法否认

1003
00:32:54,140 --> 00:32:56,319
毕竟他们不会造成太大颠覆

1004
00:32:56,319 --> 00:32:59,519
因为我和你都会想办法在设备上安装Outlook

1005
00:32:59,519 --> 00:32:59,920
或许吧

1006
00:32:59,920 --> 00:33:01,220
但看看最后那群人

1007
00:33:01,220 --> 00:33:03,000
给我给我一个齿轮不

1008
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:03,400
我明白

1009
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:04,400
但你很糟糕

1010
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:05,609
然后它变得出色了

1011
00:33:05,609 --> 00:33:05,890
啊

1012
00:33:05,890 --> 00:33:08,289
我知道它已持续十多年

1013
00:33:08,289 --> 00:33:10,089
我的意思是你可以说所有那些

1014
00:33:10,089 --> 00:33:10,849
你刚才说的

1015
00:33:10,849 --> 00:33:11,410
呃

1016
00:33:11,410 --> 00:33:12,980
高出25个百分点

1017
00:33:12,980 --> 00:33:13,900
这就是问题所在

1018
00:33:13,900 --> 00:33:14,140
它

1019
00:33:14,140 --> 00:33:14,960
这一切都是事实

1020
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,160
有人告诉我

1021
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,000
但这并不意味着不能持有股票

1022
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,159
因为如果他们开始表现更好

1023
00:33:22,159 --> 00:33:24,650
我们相信这家公司股价

1024
00:33:24,650 --> 00:33:25,369
你知道的

1025
00:33:25,369 --> 00:33:26,670
它就像苹果公司

1026
00:33:26,670 --> 00:33:28,930
去年所有人都抛售了苹果

1027
00:33:28,930 --> 00:33:30,289
这桌上有太多人

1028
00:33:30,289 --> 00:33:30,569
只是说

1029
00:33:30,569 --> 00:33:30,829
哦

1030
00:33:30,829 --> 00:33:32,069
现在不能持有

1031
00:33:32,069 --> 00:33:33,549
他们不在AI领域

1032
00:33:33,549 --> 00:33:34,250
呃交易

1033
00:33:34,250 --> 00:33:35,869
他们没造对的芯片

1034
00:33:35,869 --> 00:33:38,269
有无数理由不持有苹果

1035
00:33:38,269 --> 00:33:40,019
结果却成了优质股票

1036
00:33:40,019 --> 00:33:41,539
在所有人抛售后

1037
00:33:41,539 --> 00:33:43,619
微软也可能发生这种情况

1038
00:33:43,619 --> 00:33:44,380
百分百正确

1039
00:33:44,380 --> 00:33:45,000
她说得很对

1040
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:46,440
这就是你需要

1041
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,380
作为投资者必须做

1042
00:33:49,380 --> 00:33:52,569
必须保持信念

1043
00:33:53,609 --> 00:33:54,289
在你的信念中

1044
00:33:54,289 --> 00:33:55,289
当你研究公司时

1045
00:33:55,289 --> 00:33:56,130
当你核算数据时

1046
00:33:56,130 --> 00:33:56,970
当你做预测时

1047
00:33:56,970 --> 00:33:59,099
必须坚定立场

1048
00:33:59,099 --> 00:34:01,640
为什么这只股票值得持有

1049
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,799
为什么这只股票值得买入

1050
00:34:03,799 --> 00:34:05,480
你必须要有这种信念

1051
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:06,859
你要通过研究公司来做到这一点

1052
00:34:06,859 --> 00:34:07,690
没错

1053
00:34:07,690 --> 00:34:08,929
我是说

1054
00:34:08,929 --> 00:34:10,369
有很多股票在列

1055
00:34:10,369 --> 00:34:12,829
一年前人们并不看好AMD

1056
00:34:12,829 --> 00:34:16,239
我认为AMD股票当时在这个时间点

1057
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,539
你的AMD当时不到一百美元对吧

1058
00:34:18,539 --> 00:34:23,759
去年同时间的Micro股票上涨了550%

1059
00:34:23,759 --> 00:34:24,719
或者涨幅惊人

1060
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:25,239
没错

1061
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,840
比如我给你一份股票长名单

1062
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:28,280
是的

1063
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,699
一年前人们对谷歌有很多疑问

1064
00:34:30,699 --> 00:34:32,019
还记得谷歌麦当劳事件吗

1065
00:34:32,019 --> 00:34:32,320
啊

1066
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:32,679
天啊

1067
00:34:32,679 --> 00:34:33,519
谷歌正在被颠覆

1068
00:34:33,519 --> 00:34:35,219
谷歌谷歌和天啊

1069
00:34:35,219 --> 00:34:35,820
现在

1070
00:34:35,820 --> 00:34:36,860
人人都想持有谷歌

1071
00:34:36,860 --> 00:34:40,739
它被视为市场中最好的科技股之一

1072
00:34:43,769 --> 00:34:47,409
要有信念，通过扎实工作获得信念

1073
00:34:47,409 --> 00:34:48,349
使用千乘X

1074
00:34:48,349 --> 00:34:49,449
使用千乘X

1075
00:34:49,449 --> 00:34:50,128
你知道的

1076
00:34:50,128 --> 00:34:51,349
查看所有比率

1077
00:34:51,349 --> 00:34:52,639
全部分析一遍

1078
00:34:52,639 --> 00:34:54,079
进入图表功能

1079
00:34:54,079 --> 00:34:56,239
查看公司所有不同图表

1080
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,860
这些公司在季度的趋势如何

1081
00:34:58,860 --> 00:34:59,980
在十二个月滚动基础上

1082
00:34:59,980 --> 00:35:01,340
对吧嗯

1083
00:35:01,340 --> 00:35:01,940
你知道的

1084
00:35:01,940 --> 00:35:02,619
运行你的报告

1085
00:35:02,619 --> 00:35:04,579
你们看过千乘X的报告标签吗

1086
00:35:04,579 --> 00:35:07,099
现在你可以输入股票代码

1087
00:35:07,099 --> 00:35:10,070
对就像我要展示这会让你震惊

1088
00:35:10,070 --> 00:35:10,949
AMD

1089
00:35:10,949 --> 00:35:11,510
没错

1090
00:35:11,510 --> 00:35:12,070
呃

1091
00:35:12,070 --> 00:35:15,630
我们将调出AMD生成入门报告

1092
00:35:15,630 --> 00:35:18,809
它会生成完整报告在这里

1093
00:35:18,809 --> 00:35:22,730
十分钟内你可能从未听说过AMD

1094
00:35:22,730 --> 00:35:23,869
浏览这份报告

1095
00:35:23,869 --> 00:35:27,090
它会带你了解业务并分析

1096
00:35:27,090 --> 00:35:27,329
好的

1097
00:35:27,329 --> 00:35:28,369
这就是他们大致的业务

1098
00:35:28,369 --> 00:35:29,369
这就是他们追逐的目标

1099
00:35:29,369 --> 00:35:30,730
这对公司来说风险很大

1100
00:35:30,730 --> 00:35:35,519
对然后你甚至可以生成对冲基金级别的报告并分析

1101
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:38,460
就像这非常非常有帮助

1102
00:35:38,460 --> 00:35:40,340
这就是开始建立信心的方法

1103
00:35:40,340 --> 00:35:41,320
你做更多研究

1104
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:42,619
你参加财报电话会议

1105
00:35:42,619 --> 00:35:43,670
对于这些公司而言

1106
00:35:43,670 --> 00:35:44,809
你收听财报电话会议

1107
00:35:44,809 --> 00:35:45,929
你输入股票代码

1108
00:35:45,929 --> 00:35:47,690
我想收听AMD的最新财报电话会议

1109
00:35:47,690 --> 00:35:49,510
从而更深入了解这家公司

1110
00:35:49,510 --> 00:35:51,460
所以你要收听财报电话会议

1111
00:35:51,460 --> 00:35:54,179
你查阅这家公司的会议记录

1112
00:35:54,420 --> 00:35:56,579
我们将为你总结主要内容

1113
00:35:56,579 --> 00:35:58,739
通过我们的千倍AI技术

1114
00:35:58,739 --> 00:35:59,460
太美了

1115
00:35:59,460 --> 00:36:00,500
确实很美对吧

1116
00:36:00,500 --> 00:36:03,460
这就是开始建立对公司信心的方法

1117
00:36:03,460 --> 00:36:06,019
无论别人怎么说

1118
00:36:06,019 --> 00:36:06,380
好的

1119
00:36:06,380 --> 00:36:06,980
你知道的

1120
00:36:06,980 --> 00:36:08,219
随时可以收听

1121
00:36:08,219 --> 00:36:11,010
看看他们是否发现了你忽略的东西

1122
00:36:11,010 --> 00:36:12,750
但要有信心

1123
00:36:12,750 --> 00:36:16,170
让投资决策充满信心并适时卖出

1124
00:36:16,170 --> 00:36:17,889
当达到公允价值或高估时

1125
00:36:17,889 --> 00:36:18,309
嗯

1126
00:36:18,309 --> 00:36:20,039
我们有农民

1127
00:36:20,039 --> 00:36:21,559
吉姆已经加入了我们

1128
00:36:22,559 --> 00:36:23,739
是吉姆·莱文索尔吗

1129
00:36:23,739 --> 00:36:24,699
我们

1130
00:36:24,699 --> 00:36:25,420
我们不得不

1131
00:36:25,420 --> 00:36:26,500
我去了投球区

1132
00:36:26,500 --> 00:36:27,539
你右手投球对吧

1133
00:36:27,539 --> 00:36:29,840
我叫了右投手

1134
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:30,380
你投票了

1135
00:36:30,380 --> 00:36:30,760
我投了

1136
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,789
我回头一看说我们要去投球区

1137
00:36:34,789 --> 00:36:35,849
他接了电话

1138
00:36:35,849 --> 00:36:36,909
他联系了莱文索尔

1139
00:36:36,909 --> 00:36:37,510
他就在这里

1140
00:36:37,510 --> 00:36:38,039
他状态很好

1141
00:36:38,039 --> 00:36:38,639
他准备好了

1142
00:36:38,639 --> 00:36:39,659
状态良好

1143
00:36:39,659 --> 00:36:40,280
他做到了

1144
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:41,639
他做了几组热身投球

1145
00:36:41,639 --> 00:36:41,840
现在

1146
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:42,559
他准备好了

1147
00:36:42,559 --> 00:36:43,360
很高兴你来

1148
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:44,960
感谢大家的参与

1149
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:46,039
谢谢现在

1150
00:36:46,039 --> 00:36:48,159
我脑子里一直在想沙丘

1151
00:36:48,159 --> 00:36:48,679
是啊

1152
00:36:48,679 --> 00:36:49,440
没关系

1153
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:50,460
没关系

1154
00:36:50,590 --> 00:36:52,159
你对这个怎么看

1155
00:36:52,159 --> 00:36:53,179
这个软件想法

1156
00:36:53,179 --> 00:36:53,380
我是说

1157
00:36:53,380 --> 00:36:56,019
我觉得我们这里有个不错的辩论

1158
00:36:56,039 --> 00:36:57,579
因为你知道

1159
00:36:57,579 --> 00:36:58,739
你出现在这些名字里

1160
00:36:58,739 --> 00:36:59,119
也太

1161
00:36:59,119 --> 00:36:59,960
而乔什说

1162
00:36:59,960 --> 00:37:01,260
别被 hype 混淆

1163
00:37:01,260 --> 00:37:02,039
所谓的 hype 是

1164
00:37:02,039 --> 00:37:03,280
这次反弹

1165
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:04,539
这感觉确实不错

1166
00:37:04,539 --> 00:37:09,579
但在更大背景下并不特别突出

1167
00:37:10,940 --> 00:37:11,519
看吧

1168
00:37:11,519 --> 00:37:12,559
我是相信的

1169
00:37:12,559 --> 00:37:13,300
但看吧

1170
00:37:13,300 --> 00:37:15,380
我已经相信很久了

1171
00:37:15,380 --> 00:37:17,579
我觉得一周前这次 rally 开始了

1172
00:37:17,579 --> 00:37:17,920
斯科特

1173
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:18,679
或者可能是周一

1174
00:37:18,679 --> 00:37:19,690
我当时对你说

1175
00:37:19,690 --> 00:37:21,969
市场已经说够了

1176
00:37:21,969 --> 00:37:26,400
当时你及时反驳说嘿

1177
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:27,719
我们需要不止一天

1178
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:29,539
但现在连续几天了

1179
00:37:29,539 --> 00:37:31,780
如果看看这些股票的 rally

1180
00:37:31,780 --> 00:37:33,260
比如微软

1181
00:37:33,260 --> 00:37:35,559
我都不敢相信它跌到360

1182
00:37:35,559 --> 00:37:36,500
但现在确实跌了

1183
00:37:36,500 --> 00:37:37,809
现在到了420

1184
00:37:37,809 --> 00:37:38,809
看看甲骨文

1185
00:37:38,809 --> 00:37:39,369
我猜应该是

1186
00:37:39,369 --> 00:37:41,369
我认为在135附近见底

1187
00:37:41,369 --> 00:37:42,789
现在到了170

1188
00:37:42,789 --> 00:37:43,809
差不多这样

1189
00:37:43,809 --> 00:37:46,610
这些波动幅度说明问题

1190
00:37:46,610 --> 00:37:49,159
这远不止死猫反弹

1191
00:37:49,159 --> 00:37:51,320
所以我直接切断了

1192
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:52,539
他们说够了

1193
00:37:52,539 --> 00:37:53,460
吉姆·拉法尔

1194
00:37:53,460 --> 00:37:54,280
所以你知道的

1195
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:55,659
微软 甲骨文

1196
00:37:55,659 --> 00:37:57,568
我更看好哪只股票

1197
00:37:57,849 --> 00:38:00,289
如果讨论潜在收益

1198
00:38:00,289 --> 00:38:04,500
像伍德斯托克在未来四到六个月可能会上涨更多

1199
00:38:04,500 --> 00:38:07,400
考虑到这一点，甲骨文股价可能还会继续上涨

1200
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:11,119
如果我要把辛苦赚来的钱投入其中一只股票

1201
00:38:11,119 --> 00:38:12,139
我会选择微软

1202
00:38:12,139 --> 00:38:13,059
风险与回报的比值

1203
00:38:13,059 --> 00:38:14,300
这更具吸引力

1204
00:38:14,300 --> 00:38:18,059
比如比较甲骨文的潜在下行风险与

1205
00:38:18,059 --> 00:38:18,559
微软

1206
00:38:18,559 --> 00:38:21,099
我觉得投资微软更安全

1207
00:38:21,099 --> 00:38:22,280
至于甲骨文

1208
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:23,139
不过话说回来

1209
00:38:23,139 --> 00:38:25,188
甲骨文是否能跑赢大盘

1210
00:38:25,188 --> 00:38:27,728
如果市场在未来十八个月保持稳定

1211
00:38:27,728 --> 00:38:28,128
左右

1212
00:38:28,128 --> 00:38:28,369
当然

1213
00:38:28,369 --> 00:38:29,539
绝对没问题

1214
00:38:29,539 --> 00:38:30,039
好了各位

1215
00:38:30,039 --> 00:38:31,139
希望你们喜欢今天的视频

1216
00:38:31,139 --> 00:38:32,300
感谢你们的参与

1217
00:38:32,300 --> 00:38:34,280
希望你们喜欢今天的视频内容

1218
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:34,599
再次提醒

1219
00:38:34,599 --> 00:38:35,519
下方置顶评论

1220
00:38:35,519 --> 00:38:37,079
如果你想加入私人股票小组

1221
00:38:37,079 --> 00:38:37,780
私人财富小组

1222
00:38:37,780 --> 00:38:39,519
获取千倍股票网

1223
00:38:39,519 --> 00:38:40,949
我在视频中展示的平台

1224
00:38:40,949 --> 00:38:42,690
获取独家每周视频

1225
00:38:42,690 --> 00:38:43,389
Discord聊天室

1226
00:38:43,389 --> 00:38:44,110
所有优质资源

1227
00:38:44,110 --> 00:38:45,309
下方置顶评论

1228
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衷心祝福你们，祝大家有美好的一天

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