BV1JZwEzVERd · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:01,919 --> 00:00:02,399 你好 2 00:00:02,399 --> 00:00:03,720 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 3 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:05,540 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 4 00:00:05,540 --> 00:00:08,240 这是通道的第五节课 5 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:18,048 我会先讲解通道是如何演变成震荡区间的 6 00:00:18,048 --> 00:00:20,829 然后我会讲大多数通道被突破 7 00:00:20,829 --> 00:00:24,600 无论是向上还是向下都是如何失败的 8 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:28,780 最后我会谈到顺趋势加速突破通道 9 00:00:28,780 --> 00:00:32,119 意思就是上涨通道被加速向上突破 10 00:00:32,119 --> 00:00:36,259 或者下降通道被加速向下突破 11 00:00:40,299 --> 00:00:41,719 随着通道的发展 12 00:00:41,719 --> 00:00:45,140 多头对于趋势是否会继续变得越来越没信心 13 00:00:45,140 --> 00:00:47,079 所以他们开始更快的止盈 14 00:00:47,079 --> 00:00:49,119 他们开始做剥头皮交易 15 00:00:49,130 --> 00:00:50,929 此外空投开始意识到 16 00:00:50,929 --> 00:00:53,969 如果他们在前一根K线的高点挂限价卖单做空 17 00:00:53,969 --> 00:00:55,869 并在更高的位置加仓 18 00:00:55,869 --> 00:00:58,210 他们可以赚到钱 19 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:02,640 多头在新高卖出止盈 20 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,500 他们不再在突破创新高时买入 21 00:01:04,500 --> 00:01:06,920 不再那么相信趋势会继续上涨的更高 22 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,099 所以他们在新高卖出止盈 23 00:01:09,099 --> 00:01:10,599 他们在回调时买入 24 00:01:10,599 --> 00:01:13,480 并在前期高点止盈 25 00:01:16,659 --> 00:01:20,159 他们开始认为趋势可能无法继续太久 26 00:01:20,159 --> 00:01:23,719 可能这个通道是从强势突破到通道 27 00:01:23,719 --> 00:01:27,540 再到震荡区间的转变的开始啊 28 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:32,200 这是急速变通道的上涨趋势 29 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:33,280 急速上涨回调 30 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:34,439 第二段上涨回调 31 00:01:34,439 --> 00:01:35,939 第三段上涨 32 00:01:35,939 --> 00:01:39,019 大多数像这样的急速变通道的模式都有 33 00:01:39,019 --> 00:01:40,969 三推123 34 00:01:40,969 --> 00:01:42,829 然后演变成震荡区间 35 00:01:42,829 --> 00:01:46,109 通常价格会跌到通道的起点 36 00:01:46,109 --> 00:01:50,090 所有通道不论是否是急速变通道的模式 37 00:01:50,090 --> 00:01:51,930 通常会被反向突破 38 00:01:51,930 --> 00:01:54,719 然后演变成震荡区间 39 00:01:54,719 --> 00:01:56,640 还记得市场周期吗 40 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:57,579 强势的突破 41 00:01:57,579 --> 00:01:59,819 然后回调代表趋势减弱 42 00:01:59,819 --> 00:02:01,200 然后进入通道 43 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,879 最后变成震荡区间 44 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,060 就像这里发生的一样 45 00:02:09,060 --> 00:02:11,599 多头突破是一次急速上涨 46 00:02:11,599 --> 00:02:16,389 123跌破上涨趋势线 47 00:02:16,389 --> 00:02:18,110 这里我没有画出趋势线 48 00:02:18,110 --> 00:02:21,709 然后几段下跌测试通道的起点 49 00:02:21,709 --> 00:02:25,588 通道演变成震荡区间 50 00:02:30,780 --> 00:02:34,219 多头对趋势失去信心的同时 51 00:02:35,599 --> 00:02:38,400 空投也不认为价格会继续上涨的更高 52 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:40,979 因此他们开始在前期高点挂单做空 53 00:02:40,979 --> 00:02:43,000 并在更高的地方加仓卖出 54 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:44,729 做包头皮交易 55 00:02:46,900 --> 00:02:51,520 在这里卖出的空投可能会在这里加仓 56 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,430 然后当价格跌回他们的首次入场的位置时 57 00:02:55,430 --> 00:02:58,229 他们的第一笔仓位打平离场 58 00:02:58,229 --> 00:03:00,469 第二笔仓位盈利在这里也是一样 59 00:03:00,469 --> 00:03:01,569 他们在这里开仓做空 60 00:03:01,569 --> 00:03:03,310 在上方加仓卖出更多 61 00:03:03,310 --> 00:03:06,050 然后再跌回首次入场的位置时 62 00:03:06,050 --> 00:03:07,430 第一笔打平离场 63 00:03:07,430 --> 00:03:10,349 第二笔可以盈利赚快钱 64 00:03:15,259 --> 00:03:16,759 这是一个下降通道 65 00:03:16,759 --> 00:03:18,639 大阴线空头突破 66 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:20,719 然后进入通道 67 00:03:20,719 --> 00:03:22,039 三次向下推动 68 00:03:22,039 --> 00:03:25,930 123可能是急速变通道的模式 69 00:03:26,090 --> 00:03:29,650 强势的空头突破空投在反弹时卖出 70 00:03:29,650 --> 00:03:31,650 他们把每次反弹都看作雄起 71 00:03:31,650 --> 00:03:34,439 他们会在前一根K线的低点下方挂突破卖单 72 00:03:34,439 --> 00:03:35,800 他们会在这里成交 73 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:37,599 在阴线的低点下方卖出 74 00:03:37,599 --> 00:03:38,860 做空的胜率更高 75 00:03:38,860 --> 00:03:41,419 所以很多空头不会在阳线下方做空 76 00:03:41,419 --> 00:03:43,539 而是在这根阴线的低点下方做空 77 00:03:43,539 --> 00:03:45,840 突破卖单会在下一根K线上成交 78 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:46,759 红色框框 79 00:03:46,759 --> 00:03:49,859 这里他们会在那根K线的低点下方 80 00:03:49,859 --> 00:03:51,899 或这根阴线的低点下方卖出 81 00:03:51,899 --> 00:03:53,060 这里也是一样 82 00:03:53,060 --> 00:03:54,900 在阴线的低点下方卖出 83 00:03:54,900 --> 00:03:56,280 预期至少会跌到新低 84 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,159 空头不再在突破新低时卖出 85 00:03:58,159 --> 00:03:59,479 而是在新低止盈 86 00:03:59,479 --> 00:04:01,719 这就是这些反弹形成的原因 87 00:04:01,719 --> 00:04:05,460 新低反弹空投不在那里卖出 88 00:04:05,460 --> 00:04:06,400 而是在买入 89 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,800 他们在回补空单 90 00:04:11,199 --> 00:04:12,479 他们没有信心 91 00:04:12,479 --> 00:04:14,560 趋势会继续 92 00:04:15,060 --> 00:04:18,819 他们认为通道可能很快会演变成震荡区间 93 00:04:18,819 --> 00:04:21,620 所以市场以阶梯的模式下跌 94 00:04:21,620 --> 00:04:24,839 每次突破这是一个突破点 95 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,040 价格都会反弹回到突破点上方 96 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:31,240 突破继续下跌了一些 97 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,879 但很快回到突破点上方 98 00:04:33,879 --> 00:04:35,879 这是一个阶梯模式 99 00:04:35,879 --> 00:04:38,000 通常是趋势正在变弱 100 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,680 很快会演变成震荡区间的信号 101 00:04:44,779 --> 00:04:48,379 当你看到这种急速变通道的下降趋势时 102 00:04:48,379 --> 00:04:51,480 很多时候市场不是直接反转到通道的起点 103 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,540 他会在中途横盘整理 104 00:04:53,540 --> 00:04:56,470 然后决定是继续下跌呢 105 00:04:56,470 --> 00:05:01,310 还是反弹到通道顶部形成震荡区间 106 00:05:07,399 --> 00:05:10,399 多头也看到了正在发生的事情 107 00:05:10,399 --> 00:05:12,100 他们看到当市场创新低时 108 00:05:12,100 --> 00:05:13,040 下方有买盘 109 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:14,279 空头止盈的买盘 110 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,980 所以他们知道空投不愿意在那么低的位置卖出 111 00:05:16,980 --> 00:05:18,759 他们看到空投在止盈 112 00:05:18,759 --> 00:05:20,379 这给了多头信心 113 00:05:20,379 --> 00:05:23,389 直到趋势不会再持续下跌太久 114 00:05:23,389 --> 00:05:25,610 于是他们开始在前期低点挂单买入 115 00:05:25,610 --> 00:05:29,069 并且在更低的位置加仓做包头皮交易 116 00:05:31,139 --> 00:05:33,779 他们在这个低点挂限价单买入 117 00:05:33,779 --> 00:05:35,459 然后在更低的位置 118 00:05:35,459 --> 00:05:37,279 至少是包头皮的最小利润的距离 119 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:38,339 加仓买入更多 120 00:05:38,339 --> 00:05:39,319 如果这是外汇 121 00:05:39,319 --> 00:05:40,720 包头皮的最小利润 122 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:41,879 目标是十个peace 123 00:05:41,879 --> 00:05:43,060 他们会在这里买入 124 00:05:43,060 --> 00:05:45,000 如果直接上涨了十个peace 125 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:46,500 他们就只赢赚快钱 126 00:05:46,500 --> 00:05:47,319 如果相反 127 00:05:47,319 --> 00:05:48,860 价格先下跌了十个peace 128 00:05:48,860 --> 00:05:50,740 他们就会加仓买入更多 129 00:05:50,740 --> 00:05:51,860 价格涨回来之后 130 00:05:51,860 --> 00:05:53,060 第一笔仓位打平 131 00:05:53,060 --> 00:05:56,579 第二笔仓位可以赚十个peace 132 00:06:00,079 --> 00:06:01,839 大多数下降通道 133 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,449 比如这个空头突破是急速下跌 134 00:06:05,449 --> 00:06:06,588 然后反弹 135 00:06:06,588 --> 00:06:08,209 这是通道的起点 136 00:06:08,209 --> 00:06:11,279 大多数下降通道会被向上突破 137 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,639 所以即使市场处于下降趋势 138 00:06:13,639 --> 00:06:17,160 下降通道当然是下降趋势 139 00:06:17,689 --> 00:06:21,639 交易者应该把下降通道看作牛企 140 00:06:21,759 --> 00:06:24,420 因为大多数都会被向上突破 141 00:06:24,420 --> 00:06:27,158 上涨通道正好相反 142 00:06:27,158 --> 00:06:29,399 无论是上涨趋势中的上涨通道 143 00:06:29,399 --> 00:06:32,399 还是下降趋势中上涨通道形势的反弹 144 00:06:32,399 --> 00:06:34,860 交易者应该把他们看作是雄起 145 00:06:34,860 --> 00:06:37,399 预期会被向下突破 146 00:06:38,980 --> 00:06:40,759 下降趋势空头突破 147 00:06:40,759 --> 00:06:41,860 然后进入通道 148 00:06:41,860 --> 00:06:45,019 然而我会把它看作是牛企 149 00:06:45,019 --> 00:06:48,540 因为有很大的概率会被向上突破 150 00:06:48,540 --> 00:06:49,740 一 151 00:06:51,459 --> 00:06:57,149 下降通道牛起很可能会被向上突破 152 00:06:57,149 --> 00:06:58,870 就像这里 153 00:07:03,199 --> 00:07:05,720 强势的多头突破回调 154 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,850 然后进入通道 155 00:07:07,850 --> 00:07:09,170 K线开始有重叠 156 00:07:09,170 --> 00:07:10,649 出现了一些阴线回调 157 00:07:10,649 --> 00:07:11,939 回调回调 158 00:07:11,939 --> 00:07:13,600 这是一个上涨通道 159 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:15,579 上涨趋势中的上涨通道 160 00:07:15,579 --> 00:07:18,730 然而大概率会向下突破 161 00:07:18,730 --> 00:07:20,490 每当我看到一个上涨通道 162 00:07:20,490 --> 00:07:21,889 我总是把它看作雄起 163 00:07:21,889 --> 00:07:23,310 尽管它不是真的雄起 164 00:07:23,310 --> 00:07:24,699 左边不是下降趋势 165 00:07:24,699 --> 00:07:26,800 它是上涨趋势中的上涨通道 166 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:30,139 仍然大概率会被向下突破 167 00:07:32,339 --> 00:07:35,220 上涨通道雄奇 168 00:07:39,100 --> 00:07:41,360 上涨趋势线被跌破 169 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:47,230 急速上涨回调通道大概率会被向下突破 170 00:07:47,230 --> 00:07:49,230 然后变成震荡区间 171 00:07:49,230 --> 00:07:51,569 市场周期突破通道 172 00:07:51,569 --> 00:07:54,069 然后震荡区间 173 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:00,959 这是一个非常强势的上涨趋势 174 00:08:00,959 --> 00:08:01,980 在通道中运行 175 00:08:01,980 --> 00:08:03,879 在更高的时间周期上 176 00:08:03,879 --> 00:08:04,879 它是突破 177 00:08:04,879 --> 00:08:07,610 这是美元兑日元的5分钟图 178 00:08:07,610 --> 00:08:12,329 然而上涨通道75%的时间里 179 00:08:12,550 --> 00:08:14,089 就算他很强势 180 00:08:14,089 --> 00:08:14,810 很窄 181 00:08:14,810 --> 00:08:16,850 仍然会被向下跌破 182 00:08:16,850 --> 00:08:20,860 只有25%的时间会被加速向上突破 183 00:08:20,860 --> 00:08:24,180 然后市场循环重新开始突破 184 00:08:24,180 --> 00:08:25,360 然后再次进入通道 185 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,459 最终变成震荡区间 186 00:08:30,079 --> 00:08:32,220 尽管这个上涨趋势很强势 187 00:08:32,220 --> 00:08:33,960 还是出现了空头突破 188 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,980 空头突破不代表会反转成下降趋势 189 00:08:36,980 --> 00:08:39,200 它是一个横盘整理的窄震荡区间 190 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:40,639 这是很常见的 191 00:08:40,639 --> 00:08:42,539 但这仍然是一次空头突破 192 00:08:42,539 --> 00:08:46,068 这里是上涨趋势线通道的下沿 193 00:08:46,068 --> 00:08:50,269 市场通过横盘的方式跌破了通道的下沿 194 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:55,799 这里也是一样 195 00:08:55,799 --> 00:08:57,840 上涨通道上涨趋势 196 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,279 空头正在尝试向下突破 197 00:09:03,539 --> 00:09:06,990 上涨通道的下沿被跌破了 198 00:09:07,110 --> 00:09:08,470 价格略微下跌 199 00:09:08,470 --> 00:09:09,789 但主要是横盘 200 00:09:09,789 --> 00:09:11,889 然后进入了震荡区间 201 00:09:11,889 --> 00:09:13,350 市场周期强 202 00:09:13,350 --> 00:09:15,659 上涨趋势回调 203 00:09:15,659 --> 00:09:18,169 再一次强势上涨回调 204 00:09:18,169 --> 00:09:20,129 然后进入通道通道 205 00:09:20,129 --> 00:09:22,070 通常会演变成震荡区间 206 00:09:22,070 --> 00:09:23,860 有时是一个窄震荡区间 207 00:09:23,860 --> 00:09:26,879 比如这个案例有时会一直下跌到通道的起点 208 00:09:26,879 --> 00:09:28,879 这个低点甚至这个低点 209 00:09:28,879 --> 00:09:31,299 然后进入震荡区间 210 00:09:31,649 --> 00:09:33,889 一旦市场进入震荡区间 211 00:09:33,889 --> 00:09:36,309 横盘持续超过20根K线 212 00:09:36,309 --> 00:09:38,399 它就进入了突破模式 213 00:09:38,399 --> 00:09:41,679 此时上涨趋势恢复的概率 214 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:46,029 和趋势反转向下的概率变得大致相同 215 00:09:46,029 --> 00:09:47,029 一般来说 216 00:09:47,029 --> 00:09:49,669 如果在上涨趋势中有一个震荡区间 217 00:09:49,669 --> 00:09:53,149 那么趋势继续上涨的概率略高 218 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:56,200 反转下跌的概率略低 219 00:09:56,820 --> 00:09:57,879 但在某些时候 220 00:09:57,879 --> 00:10:00,159 如果震荡区间持续超过20根 221 00:10:00,159 --> 00:10:00,940 30根 222 00:10:00,940 --> 00:10:02,179 40根K线 223 00:10:02,179 --> 00:10:04,320 趋势继续上涨或反转 224 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,620 呈下降趋势的概率就变得大致相同 225 00:10:07,620 --> 00:10:10,759 多头把震荡区间看作双底牛起 226 00:10:10,759 --> 00:10:14,299 空头则把震荡区间看作某种大反转 227 00:10:14,299 --> 00:10:17,389 例如这里高点降低的大反转模式 228 00:10:17,389 --> 00:10:22,379 美元兑加元5分钟多头突破回调 229 00:10:22,379 --> 00:10:25,639 你可以预期市场进入通道 230 00:10:26,570 --> 00:10:29,350 而现在你预期空头突破 231 00:10:29,350 --> 00:10:31,860 然后演变成震荡区间 232 00:10:31,860 --> 00:10:34,820 有时空头突破之后会反转 233 00:10:34,820 --> 00:10:37,100 变成下降趋势 234 00:10:40,759 --> 00:10:43,299 跌破不是特别强势 235 00:10:43,299 --> 00:10:46,019 一些跟随的抛售不是特别强势 236 00:10:46,019 --> 00:10:50,549 但下跌一直持续持续了40或50根K线 237 00:10:50,549 --> 00:10:54,269 所以楔形顶1234 238 00:10:54,269 --> 00:10:56,669 然后空投突破 239 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:59,080 这是放弃K线突破 240 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:02,039 K线在某个时刻变成了无尽的回调 241 00:11:02,039 --> 00:11:03,860 20或30根K线后 242 00:11:03,860 --> 00:11:06,600 你必须意识到这是一个下降趋势 243 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,509 而不仅仅只是震荡区间中的下跌小波段 244 00:11:10,509 --> 00:11:14,190 当第二段上涨非常强势的时候 245 00:11:14,549 --> 00:11:17,750 交易者会重新开始数三推歇性 246 00:11:17,750 --> 00:11:19,809 所以可能不是123 247 00:11:19,809 --> 00:11:20,730 他们会说一 248 00:11:20,730 --> 00:11:22,730 然后哦上涨很强势 249 00:11:22,730 --> 00:11:24,470 可能是123 250 00:11:24,470 --> 00:11:29,629 另一种看法是123向上突破 251 00:11:29,629 --> 00:11:32,429 如果三推楔形顶背加速向上突破 252 00:11:32,429 --> 00:11:36,149 50%的时间会有更强的上涨趋势 253 00:11:36,149 --> 00:11:38,730 50%的时间突破会失败 254 00:11:38,730 --> 00:11:42,330 然后楔形顶背向下的反转 255 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:47,950 缺考 256 00:11:47,950 --> 00:11:49,509 这是一次急速下跌 257 00:11:49,509 --> 00:11:51,009 尽管你看不到阴线 258 00:11:51,009 --> 00:11:53,990 我将缺口视为一个看不见的趋势K线 259 00:11:53,990 --> 00:11:57,220 然后三次下跌123 260 00:11:57,220 --> 00:11:58,740 这是一个下降通道 261 00:11:58,740 --> 00:11:59,679 而且他在收敛 262 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:01,600 所以是一个楔形的下降通道 263 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:03,500 和所有下降通道一样 264 00:12:03,500 --> 00:12:09,230 75%的概率下降趋势线会被向上突破 265 00:12:13,059 --> 00:12:15,220 如果楔形底的形状很好 266 00:12:16,580 --> 00:12:19,440 可能就不只是变成震荡区间了 267 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,068 而是上涨趋势的开始 268 00:12:23,499 --> 00:12:26,038 这里开始演变成震荡区间 269 00:12:26,038 --> 00:12:28,099 然后是非常好的多头突破 270 00:12:28,099 --> 00:12:30,529 试图在这里形成震荡区间 271 00:12:30,529 --> 00:12:32,190 但一直在上涨 272 00:12:32,190 --> 00:12:34,690 这个整体是一个震荡区间吗 273 00:12:34,690 --> 00:12:35,210 是的 274 00:12:35,210 --> 00:12:37,779 但你也可以说它是上涨趋势 275 00:12:37,779 --> 00:12:39,080 由三次上涨 276 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:40,100 一回调 277 00:12:40,100 --> 00:12:41,220 二回调 278 00:12:41,220 --> 00:12:43,179 三楔形下降通道之后 279 00:12:43,179 --> 00:12:45,740 123是楔形上涨通道 280 00:12:45,740 --> 00:12:48,500 123他突破了下降通道 281 00:12:48,500 --> 00:12:50,740 然后形成了双顶 282 00:12:50,740 --> 00:12:52,899 这个糕点和那个高点 283 00:12:52,899 --> 00:12:54,940 然后变成震荡区间 284 00:12:54,940 --> 00:12:56,340 这到底是上涨趋势 285 00:12:56,340 --> 00:12:58,779 还是仅仅是震荡区间中的上涨波段 286 00:12:58,779 --> 00:13:00,320 你可以说它是上涨趋趋势 287 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:01,440 上涨了很多根K线 288 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:02,340 而且涨得很快 289 00:13:02,340 --> 00:13:06,480 你也可以说它是震荡区间中的上涨波段 290 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,100 非常窄的下降通道 291 00:13:14,100 --> 00:13:15,500 在更高的时间周期上 292 00:13:15,500 --> 00:13:16,700 它是一次突破 293 00:13:16,700 --> 00:13:18,980 你可以把它简单地看作一次突破 294 00:13:18,980 --> 00:13:20,940 你可以说通道是从这里开始的 295 00:13:20,940 --> 00:13:21,500 大阴线 296 00:13:21,500 --> 00:13:22,720 后面的运线小阳线 297 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:24,220 但下降通道很窄 298 00:13:24,220 --> 00:13:25,580 这里尝试突破通道 299 00:13:25,580 --> 00:13:29,080 所以你也可以说通道是从这里开始的都可以 300 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,639 这仍然是一个相当窄的下降通道 301 00:13:31,639 --> 00:13:33,750 尝试加速向下跌破 302 00:13:33,750 --> 00:13:37,049 但你知道即使是一个比较窄的下降通道 303 00:13:37,049 --> 00:13:40,480 75%的概率会被向上突破 304 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,440 它可以通过横盘或上涨的方式来突破 305 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:44,759 下降趋势线 306 00:13:44,759 --> 00:13:48,169 所以每个下降通道不论多么窄 307 00:13:48,169 --> 00:13:49,610 不论多么强势 308 00:13:49,610 --> 00:13:51,370 我都把他看作牛起 309 00:13:51,370 --> 00:13:54,370 因为大概率会被向上突破 310 00:13:54,580 --> 00:13:57,399 这里横盘整理了几根K线 311 00:13:57,399 --> 00:14:01,700 然后最终上涨突破了下降趋势线 312 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,879 大多数通道的突破通常都会失败 313 00:14:12,179 --> 00:14:15,580 下降通道试图加速跌破下沿 314 00:14:15,580 --> 00:14:17,539 这里有一个小双底 315 00:14:17,539 --> 00:14:20,379 下跌上涨下跌上涨 316 00:14:21,089 --> 00:14:26,469 这看起来可能是下降通道下方失败的空头突破 317 00:14:26,469 --> 00:14:29,679 当通道的上沿或下沿被突破时 318 00:14:29,679 --> 00:14:33,000 突破通常在大约五根K线之内失败 319 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:36,720 而且75%的时间怕会失败 320 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:39,000 我总是看存在这个通道的最高 321 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:40,460 时间周期的K线图 322 00:14:40,460 --> 00:14:44,440 例如假设这是一个外汇的5分钟图 323 00:14:44,639 --> 00:14:46,960 如果我去看他的一分钟图 324 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,220 这两根K线就变成了十根K线 325 00:14:50,220 --> 00:14:54,879 因此失败的突破会发生在十根K线之后 326 00:14:54,879 --> 00:14:58,759 然而我总是看该通道存在的最高时间周期图 327 00:14:58,759 --> 00:15:01,299 然后在这张K线图上 328 00:15:01,299 --> 00:15:03,899 75%的时间里突破 329 00:15:03,899 --> 00:15:07,899 将在大约五根K线之内反转上涨 330 00:15:09,799 --> 00:15:11,940 跌破下降通道的下沿 331 00:15:11,940 --> 00:15:13,500 然后反转上涨 332 00:15:13,500 --> 00:15:15,759 第二次反转上涨 333 00:15:15,909 --> 00:15:17,809 看起来空头突破正在失败 334 00:15:17,809 --> 00:15:19,440 事实也确实如此 335 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,639 正在测试通道的起点 336 00:15:21,639 --> 00:15:26,299 突破通道上沿失败的概率也是75%吗 337 00:15:26,299 --> 00:15:27,759 通常来说是的 338 00:15:27,759 --> 00:15:30,700 但如果是从底部强势的反转上来 339 00:15:30,700 --> 00:15:35,179 那么向上突破成功的概率就会大很多 340 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:39,860 在我看来 341 00:15:39,860 --> 00:15:42,279 我假设这是一个新趋势的开始 342 00:15:42,279 --> 00:15:44,220 通道阶段已经结束 343 00:15:44,220 --> 00:15:47,159 下降通道已经结束了 344 00:15:48,279 --> 00:15:50,179 跌破下沿失败之后 345 00:15:50,179 --> 00:15:52,710 多头的目标在哪里 346 00:15:52,909 --> 00:15:54,809 去测试通道的上沿 347 00:15:54,809 --> 00:15:55,889 这是最低目标 348 00:15:55,889 --> 00:15:57,289 在这里上涨了更多 349 00:15:57,289 --> 00:15:59,659 多头突破进入了上涨趋势 350 00:15:59,659 --> 00:16:03,259 注宽下降通道最终的目标是测试通道的起点 351 00:16:03,259 --> 00:16:07,240 至少是前期某个重要高点突破进入上涨趋势 352 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:09,720 你必须假设市场周期重新开始 353 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:10,799 所以多头突破 354 00:16:10,799 --> 00:16:11,960 然后会有回调 355 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:13,039 然后是通道 356 00:16:13,039 --> 00:16:16,019 假设我们看的是这个时间周期的K线图 357 00:16:16,019 --> 00:16:18,559 跌破了通道的下沿 358 00:16:18,739 --> 00:16:21,058 然而空头突破仍在继续 359 00:16:22,099 --> 00:16:25,158 在突破失败并开始反转上涨之前 360 00:16:25,158 --> 00:16:28,099 远远超过了五根K线 361 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:30,779 这是2分钟图 362 00:16:30,779 --> 00:16:34,399 在空投突破失败并开始反转上涨之前 363 00:16:34,399 --> 00:16:37,240 他花了30根K线 364 00:16:40,019 --> 00:16:45,220 然而我只对显示该通道的最高时间周期感兴趣 365 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:50,080 也就是右边这张图 366 00:16:51,009 --> 00:16:52,629 左边是2分钟K线图 367 00:16:52,629 --> 00:16:54,470 右边是30分钟K线图 368 00:16:54,470 --> 00:16:56,529 它们显示了相同的突破 369 00:16:56,529 --> 00:16:58,909 反转上涨发生在三根K线之内 370 00:16:58,909 --> 00:17:01,429 123这是空头突破 371 00:17:01,429 --> 00:17:04,828 但是突破通常在五根K线之内失败 372 00:17:04,828 --> 00:17:07,449 这个案例在三根K线内就失败了 373 00:17:07,449 --> 00:17:11,189 总是看存在该通道的最高时间周期 374 00:17:14,039 --> 00:17:16,039 75%的概率 375 00:17:16,039 --> 00:17:19,819 空头突破会在大约五根K线之内失败 376 00:17:19,819 --> 00:17:22,869 然后测试通道的另一侧 377 00:17:27,059 --> 00:17:29,180 当价格从一侧反转时 378 00:17:29,180 --> 00:17:32,460 最低目标是测试通道的另一侧 379 00:17:33,319 --> 00:17:35,559 这是最低目标 380 00:17:40,819 --> 00:17:42,380 两根大阳线突破 381 00:17:42,380 --> 00:17:44,339 然后是一根小阴线回调 382 00:17:44,339 --> 00:17:45,819 它也许是通道的开始 383 00:17:45,819 --> 00:17:48,059 确实进入了通道 384 00:17:49,900 --> 00:17:53,180 这里空头尝试跌破通道 385 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,420 这是否意味着如果你在跌破通道的时候 386 00:17:58,420 --> 00:17:59,920 做空就能赚钱 387 00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:01,519 完全错误 388 00:18:01,519 --> 00:18:03,960 当上涨通道这么窄的时候 389 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,799 做空赚钱的概率很小 390 00:18:07,130 --> 00:18:10,730 要预期任何反转都是小反转 391 00:18:11,339 --> 00:18:14,319 在小反转里面去做空是很难赚到钱的 392 00:18:14,319 --> 00:18:18,199 仅仅因为你知道它可能会跌破上涨趋势线 393 00:18:18,199 --> 00:18:22,450 并不意味跌幅会足以让你做空赚钱 394 00:18:22,849 --> 00:18:24,670 当上涨通道非常窄的时候 395 00:18:24,670 --> 00:18:26,589 这是一个非常强的上涨趋势 396 00:18:26,589 --> 00:18:29,210 最好只考虑买入做多 397 00:18:31,799 --> 00:18:34,640 上涨微通道持续了大约十根K线 398 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:35,680 尝试反转 399 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,960 下跌很可能会变成牛企 400 00:18:40,509 --> 00:18:44,599 交易者会在反转上涨的阳线上方挂突破买单 401 00:18:44,599 --> 00:18:47,720 他们会在反转上涨的任何K线的高点上方买入 402 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:48,319 事实上 403 00:18:48,319 --> 00:18:50,339 多头也会在K线下方买入 404 00:18:50,339 --> 00:18:52,839 压住反转下跌会失败 405 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:00,680 我说过75%的通道突破会反转 406 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,480 但有时他们会成功 407 00:19:04,589 --> 00:19:08,750 上涨通道有时会得到一个成功的多头突破 408 00:19:08,750 --> 00:19:12,750 下降通道有时会得到一个成功的空头突破 409 00:19:12,750 --> 00:19:16,910 然后市场周期重新开始突破新的通道 410 00:19:16,910 --> 00:19:19,369 然后震荡区间 411 00:19:22,859 --> 00:19:24,579 楔形的下降通道 412 00:19:25,819 --> 00:19:29,680 但看起来正在试图加速跌破通道中 413 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:31,319 75%的概率 414 00:19:31,319 --> 00:19:33,299 空头突破或多头突破 415 00:19:33,299 --> 00:19:36,440 在大约五根K线之内会失败 416 00:19:40,380 --> 00:19:42,539 这里试图形成三推一些行底 417 00:19:42,539 --> 00:19:44,839 123尝试反转上涨 418 00:19:44,839 --> 00:19:46,299 反转上涨失败 419 00:19:46,299 --> 00:19:50,440 一些多头会把止损放在这根K线的下方 420 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,039 每当你看到一个楔形底或任何类型的底部时 421 00:19:54,039 --> 00:19:56,160 有一个明确的止损位置 422 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,630 然后止损被触发 423 00:19:58,630 --> 00:20:01,809 一半的概率会有下跌的波段 424 00:20:01,809 --> 00:20:04,190 另一半时间里空头突破会失败 425 00:20:04,190 --> 00:20:05,490 市场会反转上涨 426 00:20:05,490 --> 00:20:06,410 在这个案例中 427 00:20:06,410 --> 00:20:08,460 空头突破空投第二次突破 428 00:20:08,460 --> 00:20:10,500 形成了看涨IY注看涨 429 00:20:10,500 --> 00:20:12,950 因为右边的运线是阳线收在高位 430 00:20:12,950 --> 00:20:15,410 吞噬线之后的运线是阳线收在高位 431 00:20:15,410 --> 00:20:17,599 这是第二次反转上涨的买入点 432 00:20:17,599 --> 00:20:20,000 一些交易者会在这根K线的高点上方买入 433 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,779 一些交易者会认为单独一根阳线不足以反转 434 00:20:23,779 --> 00:20:25,039 这么大的阴线 435 00:20:25,039 --> 00:20:28,000 很可能至少会有一个小的第二段下跌 436 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:29,400 也就是这根阴线 437 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:30,940 这是第二次失败的空头突破 438 00:20:30,940 --> 00:20:32,420 这是一个更高胜率的买点 439 00:20:32,420 --> 00:20:35,220 至少测试通道的上沿注也是看涨的IO 440 00:20:35,220 --> 00:20:37,420 而且做多信号可以更好了 441 00:20:38,589 --> 00:20:40,430 思考一下这里发生了什么 442 00:20:40,430 --> 00:20:41,390 向上反转 443 00:20:41,390 --> 00:20:42,390 向上反转 444 00:20:42,390 --> 00:20:45,359 你可以画一条线一二 445 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:49,009 然后观察第三次测试这条线时会发生什么 446 00:20:49,410 --> 00:20:50,890 试图反转上涨 447 00:20:50,890 --> 00:20:52,769 但不是特别好的反转 448 00:20:54,089 --> 00:20:56,659 这里有三根不错的阴线 449 00:20:56,659 --> 00:20:58,898 然后看空投接下来做了什么 450 00:20:58,898 --> 00:21:00,778 一根非常强的大阴线 451 00:21:00,778 --> 00:21:03,898 空投试图加速突破楔形通道的下沿 452 00:21:03,898 --> 00:21:05,980 期待有向下的AMA 453 00:21:05,980 --> 00:21:07,819 但是看他的跟随 454 00:21:07,819 --> 00:21:09,880 空头突破后的跟随非常糟糕 455 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:11,299 足够强的阴线 456 00:21:11,299 --> 00:21:13,599 至少有一个小的第二段下跌 457 00:21:13,599 --> 00:21:15,160 空投得到了他们的最低目标 458 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:16,480 一个小的第二段下跌 459 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:17,980 继续关注空投的跟随 460 00:21:17,980 --> 00:21:19,500 又一根大的阳线 461 00:21:19,500 --> 00:21:23,138 这很可能是楔形底下方失败的空头突破 462 00:21:23,138 --> 00:21:26,479 最低目标将是某种向上的反转 463 00:21:26,479 --> 00:21:29,419 大概率会有两段上涨 464 00:21:32,599 --> 00:21:34,880 这是第一次空投突破 465 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:39,190 大多数通道下方的空投突破都会失败 466 00:21:39,190 --> 00:21:42,730 通常反转上涨发生在五根K线之内 467 00:21:42,730 --> 00:21:44,490 这里用了六根K线 468 00:21:44,490 --> 00:21:48,704 123456 469 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,160 小双底下跌 470 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:53,740 上涨再下跌再上涨 471 00:21:53,740 --> 00:21:54,880 这里是阳线 472 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,929 这里是更大的阳线 473 00:21:56,929 --> 00:21:59,888 楔形底下方的空头突破看起来正在失败 474 00:21:59,888 --> 00:22:01,709 这是一个合理的买入 475 00:22:01,709 --> 00:22:03,608 期待至少两段上涨 476 00:22:03,608 --> 00:22:04,989 一回调 477 00:22:04,989 --> 00:22:06,384 二 478 00:22:08,819 --> 00:22:12,559 这是一个相当窄的上涨通道 479 00:22:12,559 --> 00:22:14,279 空头突破只是小反转 480 00:22:14,279 --> 00:22:16,640 现在看起来正在加速向上 481 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:17,660 尝试突破 482 00:22:17,660 --> 00:22:21,039 这个上涨通道只有25%的时间 483 00:22:21,039 --> 00:22:24,960 上涨通道上方的多头突破会成功 484 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,809 这就是一个例子 485 00:22:28,809 --> 00:22:30,750 三根连续的阳线收在最高 486 00:22:30,750 --> 00:22:31,390 体积不错 487 00:22:31,390 --> 00:22:32,269 这是一个突破 488 00:22:32,269 --> 00:22:33,089 看起来会成功 489 00:22:33,089 --> 00:22:34,309 注有一根小阴线 490 00:22:34,309 --> 00:22:35,849 但左边连续这么多强势阳线 491 00:22:35,849 --> 00:22:36,699 背景不好 492 00:22:36,699 --> 00:22:38,378 反转信号K也不够强 493 00:22:38,378 --> 00:22:40,138 所以不会有人在他的下方做空 494 00:22:40,138 --> 00:22:41,000 有一点点犹豫 495 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:42,559 然后你可以说这是一个通道 496 00:22:42,559 --> 00:22:43,279 急速上涨 497 00:22:43,279 --> 00:22:43,940 然后回调 498 00:22:43,940 --> 00:22:44,980 然后可能进入通道 499 00:22:44,980 --> 00:22:47,160 最终会进入震荡区间 500 00:22:49,619 --> 00:22:52,380 因为多头突破成功了 501 00:22:52,380 --> 00:22:56,799 所以你必须考虑市场周期正在重新开始突破 502 00:22:56,799 --> 00:23:00,539 然后通道最终是震荡区间 503 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:05,460 一般来说在任何突破或反转之后 504 00:23:05,660 --> 00:23:08,359 交易者预期的最低目标是两段 505 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,460 至少持续十根K线 506 00:23:10,460 --> 00:23:14,819 所以多头突破回调第二段上涨 507 00:23:14,819 --> 00:23:16,980 这个突破非常强大 508 00:23:16,980 --> 00:23:18,740 概率会有第二段上涨 509 00:23:18,740 --> 00:23:22,599 多头突破回调可能还有第三段上涨 510 00:23:22,599 --> 00:23:26,380 但当你看到任何类型的反转或突破时 511 00:23:26,380 --> 00:23:29,440 最低目标是两段10K 512 00:23:33,059 --> 00:23:35,559 下降通道两次反转 513 00:23:35,559 --> 00:23:36,519 画一条线 514 00:23:36,519 --> 00:23:39,200 市场在那条线上再次反转上涨 515 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,849 但接下来连续三根阴线收在一半以下 516 00:23:42,849 --> 00:23:44,789 其中一根收在最低 517 00:23:44,789 --> 00:23:46,069 体积非常大 518 00:23:46,069 --> 00:23:49,549 尤其是对比前面这些阳线的体积 519 00:23:50,130 --> 00:23:52,029 这看起来像是突破 520 00:23:52,029 --> 00:23:53,289 而看到突破 521 00:23:53,289 --> 00:23:56,730 你就必须考虑市场周期突破反弹 522 00:23:56,730 --> 00:24:01,259 然后通道下降通道向下加速突破 523 00:24:01,259 --> 00:24:04,569 成功的概率只有25% 524 00:24:04,890 --> 00:24:08,450 突破之后市场周期重新开始 525 00:24:08,970 --> 00:24:12,890 所以突破反弹通道最终是震荡区间 526 00:24:15,859 --> 00:24:18,420 最低目标十根K线两段下跌 527 00:24:18,420 --> 00:24:20,380 至少横盘十根K线两段 528 00:24:20,380 --> 00:24:22,660 tb t l10K两段 529 00:24:22,910 --> 00:24:24,509 这是第一段下跌 530 00:24:24,509 --> 00:24:29,509 这是第二段反弹之后第二段下跌 531 00:24:34,559 --> 00:24:36,839 下降通道两次反转 532 00:24:36,839 --> 00:24:37,680 画一条线 533 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:38,660 反转上涨 534 00:24:38,660 --> 00:24:41,700 跌破失败反转上涨反转上涨反转上涨 535 00:24:41,700 --> 00:24:45,000 所以看起来市场尊重通道的下沿 536 00:24:45,309 --> 00:24:49,099 下降通道看左牛企75%的概率 537 00:24:49,099 --> 00:24:52,319 这个下降通道会变成一个震荡区间 538 00:24:52,319 --> 00:24:54,299 只有25%的概率 539 00:24:54,299 --> 00:24:56,619 空投会成功的加速跌破 540 00:24:56,619 --> 00:24:59,710 然后进入新的下降通道 541 00:25:00,150 --> 00:25:03,029 这是那25%中的一个案例 542 00:25:04,069 --> 00:25:07,089 我喜欢看到连续的大的阴线 543 00:25:07,089 --> 00:25:09,888 大阴县跟随也是大阴县 544 00:25:09,888 --> 00:25:11,128 当我看到他们 545 00:25:11,128 --> 00:25:14,368 我知道市场周期重新开始了突破 546 00:25:14,368 --> 00:25:16,108 然后横盘整理反弹 547 00:25:16,108 --> 00:25:18,689 然后是新的下降通道 548 00:25:19,009 --> 00:25:21,829 这个下降通道没有被向上突破 549 00:25:21,829 --> 00:25:24,470 而是被加速跌破 550 00:25:24,750 --> 00:25:27,650 市场周期重新开始突破反弹 551 00:25:27,650 --> 00:25:31,230 然后通道最终震荡区间 552 00:25:32,380 --> 00:25:32,980 突破 553 00:25:32,980 --> 00:25:36,039 然后通道预期会向上突破 554 00:25:36,039 --> 00:25:39,630 这里是通过横盘的方式突破通道 555 00:25:39,630 --> 00:25:41,269 而不是上涨趋势 556 00:25:41,269 --> 00:25:44,829 只是横向的超过了下降趋势线震荡区间 557 00:25:44,829 --> 00:25:47,549 所以市场周期是 558 00:25:49,019 --> 00:25:50,859 空头突破通道 559 00:25:50,859 --> 00:25:53,529 然后演变成震荡区间 560 00:25:53,529 --> 00:25:56,509 震荡大约20根K线后进入突破模式 561 00:25:56,509 --> 00:25:58,859 反转上涨的概率和趋势恢复 562 00:25:58,859 --> 00:26:01,000 下跌的概率变得大致相同 563 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:02,900 这是1987年的崩盘 564 00:26:02,900 --> 00:26:04,910 注10月19号星期一 565 00:26:04,910 --> 00:26:06,970 大盘一天跌了25% 566 00:26:06,970 --> 00:26:10,529 蒸发的市值相当于当年美国GDP的18 567 00:26:10,529 --> 00:26:12,549 我在那之前不久开始交易 568 00:26:12,549 --> 00:26:14,490 这对当时的交易者而言 569 00:26:14,490 --> 00:26:16,670 情感上是毁灭性的打击 570 00:26:16,670 --> 00:26:18,369 这是一个有趣的故事 571 00:26:18,369 --> 00:26:24,000 嗯那一天我做空了13首标普500的期货合约 572 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,980 祝S与P期货合约现在已经取消了 573 00:26:26,980 --> 00:26:28,960 相当于现在es合约的五倍 574 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:30,680 也就是65首es合约 575 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,240 当时的价格低很多 576 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,859 但相当于65份es合约 577 00:26:34,859 --> 00:26:39,069 那天我不得不去我的诊所给病人做眼科手术 578 00:26:39,190 --> 00:26:40,309 所以我离场了 579 00:26:40,309 --> 00:26:42,890 那天我亏了5000美元离场 580 00:26:42,890 --> 00:26:45,589 如果我继续交易并坚定持有 581 00:26:45,589 --> 00:26:46,740 到收盘 582 00:26:46,740 --> 00:26:48,880 我本可以赚40万美元 583 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,660 那是1987年的40万美元 584 00:26:51,660 --> 00:26:55,279 放到今天至少是100多万美元 585 00:26:55,279 --> 00:26:56,460 无论如何 586 00:26:56,460 --> 00:26:57,940 我想再说明的是 587 00:26:57,940 --> 00:27:03,859 上涨通道75%的概率会向下跌破 588 00:27:03,859 --> 00:27:05,640 然后变成震荡区间 589 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,880 但有25%的概率会加速向上突破 590 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,019 然后开始一个新的市场周期 591 00:27:16,900 --> 00:27:18,059 看看发生了什么 592 00:27:18,059 --> 00:27:23,000 456789十根连续的阳线收在最高 593 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:24,839 这是一个强势突破 594 00:27:24,839 --> 00:27:27,609 而且远高于上涨通道的上沿 595 00:27:27,609 --> 00:27:31,440 这是那25%中的一个案例嗯 596 00:27:31,464 --> 00:27:34,579 当上涨通道被加速向上突破时 597 00:27:34,579 --> 00:27:36,480 市场周期重新开始 598 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,220 这是1995年 599 00:27:38,220 --> 00:27:43,000 共和党在1994年接管了众议院之后 600 00:27:45,799 --> 00:27:48,079 连续八根阳线收在最高 601 00:27:48,079 --> 00:27:50,920 非常强的多头突破 602 00:27:51,380 --> 00:27:55,539 至少会向上去到某个mm目标位 603 00:27:57,059 --> 00:27:58,420 这是一个低概率事件 604 00:27:58,420 --> 00:28:00,099 大部分时候不会发生这样的行情 605 00:28:00,099 --> 00:28:03,019 通道很可能会被向下跌破 606 00:28:03,140 --> 00:28:05,119 相反出现了多头突破 607 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:06,680 不仅仅是多头突破 608 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,099 而且是极度强势的多头突破 609 00:28:09,099 --> 00:28:10,160 你不能否认市场 610 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,099 你必须承认小概率事件发生了 611 00:28:13,099 --> 00:28:15,789 当一件本不该发生的事情发生时 612 00:28:15,789 --> 00:28:17,150 后面会有强势的跟随 613 00:28:17,150 --> 00:28:18,069 注即惊喜 614 00:28:18,069 --> 00:28:19,769 K线之后往往会有第二段行情 615 00:28:19,769 --> 00:28:21,069 这个是同样的K线图 616 00:28:21,069 --> 00:28:22,159 但缩小了 617 00:28:22,159 --> 00:28:25,398 这里是月线图上的连续八根阳线 618 00:28:25,398 --> 00:28:28,159 市场一直在上涨 619 00:28:30,140 --> 00:28:32,740 它变成持续了18根K线的上涨 620 00:28:32,740 --> 00:28:35,140 窄通道开始出现了一些回调 621 00:28:35,140 --> 00:28:38,809 但仍然在一个非常窄的通道中 622 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:40,960 这里有一次回调 623 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,779 但接下来在大约5年的时间里 624 00:28:44,779 --> 00:28:48,609 标普从400点涨到了1500点 625 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,049 上涨通道预期他是熊奇会被向下突破 626 00:28:54,049 --> 00:28:55,829 但是当出现多头突破的时候 627 00:28:55,829 --> 00:28:58,049 尤其是如果他看上去特别强势 628 00:28:58,049 --> 00:29:00,589 大概率会有很多跟随的买盘 629 00:29:00,589 --> 00:29:01,849 这很不寻常 630 00:29:01,849 --> 00:29:04,049 然而你不能否认市场 631 00:29:04,049 --> 00:29:09,250 一旦你开始看到56789十根阳线 632 00:29:09,250 --> 00:29:10,970 突破上涨通道的上沿 633 00:29:10,970 --> 00:29:14,210 你必须假设市场已经改变 634 00:29:14,579 --> 00:29:16,319 在接下来的4年里 635 00:29:16,319 --> 00:29:19,539 标普上涨了300% 636 00:29:23,599 --> 00:29:26,339 上涨通道通常会被向下突破 637 00:29:26,339 --> 00:29:27,980 然后进入震荡区间 638 00:29:27,980 --> 00:29:31,420 但这个上涨通道被加速向上突破了 639 00:29:31,420 --> 00:29:35,099 所以市场周期重新开始 640 00:29:37,759 --> 00:29:41,220 非常强势的多头突破微通道几乎没有回调 641 00:29:41,220 --> 00:29:44,240 非常窄的通道出现了幅度更大的回调 642 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,839 然后有更多的阴线和更多的回调 643 00:29:46,839 --> 00:29:48,740 依旧是非常窄的上涨通道 644 00:29:48,740 --> 00:29:51,659 在更高时间周期上是突破 645 00:29:51,939 --> 00:29:53,479 跌破上涨通道 646 00:29:53,479 --> 00:29:57,519 但是看发生了什么强势的反转上涨 647 00:29:57,519 --> 00:30:01,058 你可以画一个更宽的上涨通道 648 00:30:01,269 --> 00:30:02,369 新的市场周期 649 00:30:02,369 --> 00:30:04,670 每当你看到这么强的多头突破时 650 00:30:04,670 --> 00:30:07,680 你必须考虑一个新的市场周期突破 651 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:12,079 然后通道最终是震荡区间啊 652 00:30:18,359 --> 00:30:21,000 这里显然是一个非常强势的多头突破 653 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:24,339 但事实上你可以说3年的这个上涨 654 00:30:24,339 --> 00:30:26,970 整体是一次突破 655 00:30:27,569 --> 00:30:29,089 这是月K线图 656 00:30:29,089 --> 00:30:31,490 如果你看一个更高时间周期的K线图 657 00:30:31,490 --> 00:30:33,410 比如每根K线是六个月 658 00:30:33,410 --> 00:30:35,200 或每根K线是一年 659 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,240 那么这整个3年的上涨 660 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,799 就是一次强势的多头突破 661 00:30:39,799 --> 00:30:41,839 而这是一个足够大的回调 662 00:30:41,839 --> 00:30:45,500 你会认为通道从这里开始嗯 663 00:30:49,799 --> 00:30:52,799 市场周期突破回调 664 00:30:52,799 --> 00:30:54,670 然后进入通道 665 00:30:54,670 --> 00:30:56,789 然后通道被向下突破 666 00:30:56,789 --> 00:31:00,799 然后市场演变成震荡区间啊 667 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:07,019 再讲一遍 668 00:31:07,019 --> 00:31:08,759 87年的股灾后 669 00:31:08,759 --> 00:31:10,920 市场处于上涨通道 670 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,059 然后是一个非常强势的多头突破 671 00:31:13,059 --> 00:31:14,720 这是低概率事件 672 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,200 每当低概率事件发生 673 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,140 会有踏空的多头被困在好的交易外面 674 00:31:19,140 --> 00:31:20,880 他们之前不认为市场会涨 675 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:22,000 所以没有买入 676 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,619 同时有空投被困在糟糕的交易里面 677 00:31:24,619 --> 00:31:26,319 他们在下降通道的上方卖出 678 00:31:26,319 --> 00:31:27,119 做空压住 679 00:31:27,119 --> 00:31:28,059 突破会失败 680 00:31:28,059 --> 00:31:29,900 所以两者都被困住了 681 00:31:29,900 --> 00:31:32,299 两者都希望有任何形式的回调 682 00:31:32,299 --> 00:31:33,339 多头希望回调 683 00:31:33,339 --> 00:31:35,259 这样他们就终于有机会逢低买入 684 00:31:35,259 --> 00:31:36,819 空投也希望回调 685 00:31:36,819 --> 00:31:40,019 这样他们可以少亏一些离场 686 00:31:41,430 --> 00:31:43,349 结果是第一次反转 687 00:31:43,349 --> 00:31:45,578 下跌时交易者会买入 688 00:31:45,578 --> 00:31:46,659 多头会买入 689 00:31:46,659 --> 00:31:51,250 做多空头会买入回补他们的空头仓位 690 00:31:51,410 --> 00:31:53,829 最低目标是两段上涨 691 00:31:53,829 --> 00:31:55,690 是不是第一段回调 692 00:31:55,690 --> 00:31:56,849 第二段嗯 693 00:31:56,849 --> 00:31:59,119 你可以说是你也可以说 694 00:31:59,119 --> 00:32:01,859 如果你使用不同时间周期的K线图 695 00:32:01,859 --> 00:32:03,599 第一段上涨回调 696 00:32:03,599 --> 00:32:05,750 第二段上涨无所谓 697 00:32:05,750 --> 00:32:07,650 最低目标是十根K线 698 00:32:07,650 --> 00:32:11,200 两段上涨在月线图上的涨幅远远不止这些 699 00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,039 在一个更高时间周期的K线图上 700 00:32:13,039 --> 00:32:14,160 比如年K线图 701 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,359 整个过程都是突破阶段 702 00:32:16,359 --> 00:32:18,349 而这是回调 703 00:32:18,470 --> 00:32:22,430 第一段上涨回调第二段 704 00:32:24,579 --> 00:32:26,619 每当出现任何形式的回调 705 00:32:26,619 --> 00:32:27,859 这里有一个回调 706 00:32:27,859 --> 00:32:28,720 我会看左边 707 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,460 看价格是否保持在突破点的上方 708 00:32:31,460 --> 00:32:32,619 就像这里一样 709 00:32:32,619 --> 00:32:33,779 所以你必须考虑 710 00:32:33,779 --> 00:32:36,220 也许这个缺口在这个低点和高点之间的缺口 711 00:32:36,220 --> 00:32:37,339 是测量型缺口 712 00:32:37,339 --> 00:32:41,519 从起涨点到低段上涨的顶点往上翻一倍 713 00:32:41,519 --> 00:32:43,339 作为MM目标位 714 00:32:43,339 --> 00:32:47,029 你知道会有多头在那里开始止盈 715 00:32:47,190 --> 00:32:49,309 激进的空投会在那里做空 716 00:32:49,309 --> 00:32:51,509 但当一个通道如此强势时 717 00:32:51,509 --> 00:32:53,910 最好只考虑买入 718 00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,099 这是同样的K线图 719 00:32:59,099 --> 00:33:00,480 87年的股灾 720 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,279 当时这根阴线很大 721 00:33:02,279 --> 00:33:05,138 市场一天内下跌了25% 722 00:33:05,138 --> 00:33:08,138 但当你现在回顾30多年后 723 00:33:08,138 --> 00:33:10,849 他看起来很小啊 724 00:33:11,013 --> 00:33:12,509 无论如何 725 00:33:12,509 --> 00:33:15,599 上涨通道被加速向上突破 726 00:33:15,599 --> 00:33:17,480 然后进入新的上涨通道 727 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,039 而这个上涨通道确实被向下跌破了 728 00:33:20,039 --> 00:33:20,740 事实上 729 00:33:20,740 --> 00:33:22,720 这是一个毁灭性的回调 730 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,390 注00年互联网泡沫股灾 731 00:33:25,390 --> 00:33:27,170 市场下跌了大约50% 732 00:33:27,170 --> 00:33:29,029 是这段上涨的50% 733 00:33:29,029 --> 00:33:31,619 这是急速转通道的下降趋势 734 00:33:31,619 --> 00:33:33,240 上涨通道被向下跌破 735 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,660 这是75%的时间里会发生的事 736 00:33:35,660 --> 00:33:37,119 市场通常会下跌 737 00:33:37,119 --> 00:33:38,819 测试通道的起涨点 738 00:33:38,819 --> 00:33:41,339 这里跌的稍微更多一点 739 00:33:44,660 --> 00:33:48,859 多头突破回调通道通常演变成震荡区间 740 00:33:48,859 --> 00:33:51,900 而这个震荡区间持续了15年 741 00:33:51,900 --> 00:33:54,660 最终趋势恢复上涨 742 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,140 这是美人对家园480分钟图 743 00:34:02,140 --> 00:34:04,539 八小时图多头突破 744 00:34:04,539 --> 00:34:07,289 然后回调进入通道 745 00:34:07,289 --> 00:34:11,210 75%的概率上涨通道可以看作雄起 746 00:34:11,210 --> 00:34:14,320 75%的概率会被向下跌破 747 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,159 并演变成震荡区间 748 00:34:16,159 --> 00:34:19,360 25%的概率会被加速向上突破 749 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,079 市场周期重新开始 750 00:34:23,039 --> 00:34:25,559 这是接下来的行情 751 00:34:25,559 --> 00:34:27,610 多头突破通道 752 00:34:27,610 --> 00:34:29,030 而不是一个震荡区间 753 00:34:29,030 --> 00:34:31,090 你可以说这是一个小震荡区间 754 00:34:31,090 --> 00:34:33,940 但总的来说它处于上涨趋势里面 755 00:34:33,940 --> 00:34:36,179 非常强势的多头突破 756 00:34:36,179 --> 00:34:38,958 25%的时间里会出现这样的情况 757 00:34:38,958 --> 00:34:41,318 上涨通道被加速向上突破 758 00:34:41,318 --> 00:34:45,070 市场周期重新开始突破回调 759 00:34:45,070 --> 00:34:46,269 然后是通道 760 00:34:46,269 --> 00:34:49,070 最终是震荡区间 761 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,659 在任何突破后非常强的趋势 762 00:35:00,659 --> 00:35:03,679 交易者预期会回调进入通道 763 00:35:03,679 --> 00:35:05,800 变成较弱的趋势 764 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,840 然后预期那个通道最终演变成震荡区间 765 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:10,400 这就是市场周期 766 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,329 是市场通常的行为 767 00:35:12,329 --> 00:35:16,329 多头突破回调进入通道变成更宽的通道 768 00:35:16,329 --> 00:35:18,809 最终变成震荡区间 769 00:35:19,639 --> 00:35:21,300 在震荡区间之后 770 00:35:21,300 --> 00:35:24,639 特别是持续40或50根K线之后 771 00:35:24,639 --> 00:35:27,719 趋势恢复上涨的概率降低到50% 772 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:31,389 多头把它看作三角形或者是双底扭起 773 00:35:31,389 --> 00:35:34,550 而空头把它看作一个大反转的模式 774 00:35:34,550 --> 00:35:36,750 高点降低的双顶大反转 775 00:35:36,750 --> 00:35:39,789 他们期待趋势反转下跌 776 00:35:44,260 --> 00:35:48,800 市场周期多头突破通道有一个小的震荡区间 777 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,730 或者多头突破通道加速向上突破 778 00:35:52,730 --> 00:35:55,050 25%的时间会出现这样的情况 779 00:35:55,050 --> 00:35:58,110 市场周期重新开始多头突破通道 780 00:35:58,110 --> 00:36:00,250 然后震荡区间 781 00:36:00,670 --> 00:36:05,349 然后市场在等待向上或向下的突破突破之后 782 00:36:05,349 --> 00:36:08,190 市场周期将重新开始 783 00:36:12,780 --> 00:36:15,340 上涨通道所以是雄奇 784 00:36:15,340 --> 00:36:17,639 但是被强势的加速突破 785 00:36:17,639 --> 00:36:20,460 所以有被困的多头和空头 786 00:36:21,048 --> 00:36:24,289 多头希望变成震荡区间 787 00:36:25,110 --> 00:36:27,050 让他们以更低的价格买入 788 00:36:27,050 --> 00:36:28,670 于是错过了这笔交易 789 00:36:28,670 --> 00:36:30,789 而空投在每个新高卖出 790 00:36:30,789 --> 00:36:34,670 做空压铸市场会变成震荡区间 791 00:36:34,670 --> 00:36:35,889 他们被套牢了 792 00:36:35,889 --> 00:36:38,289 两者都希望会有任何形式的回调 793 00:36:38,289 --> 00:36:39,739 即使只回调一点点 794 00:36:39,739 --> 00:36:40,780 他们就可以买入 795 00:36:40,780 --> 00:36:41,579 多头买入 796 00:36:41,579 --> 00:36:45,239 做多空头买入回补少亏一些离场 797 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:49,679 因为多头和空头都在强势突破后急于买入 798 00:36:49,679 --> 00:36:53,960 所以通常至少会有一个小的第二段上涨 799 00:37:01,019 --> 00:37:03,579 这里本可以是通道的顶部 800 00:37:03,579 --> 00:37:05,300 然后开始变成震荡区间 801 00:37:05,300 --> 00:37:07,318 相反加速向上突破 802 00:37:07,318 --> 00:37:09,659 我总是看MM目标位在哪里 803 00:37:09,659 --> 00:37:13,759 从通道的起点到通道的最高点往上翻一倍 804 00:37:13,759 --> 00:37:15,670 作为MM目标位 805 00:37:15,670 --> 00:37:17,690 如果突破足够强势 806 00:37:17,690 --> 00:37:20,650 那么我会看整个结构的底部 807 00:37:20,650 --> 00:37:24,590 到它的顶部寻找mm目标位 808 00:37:24,750 --> 00:37:30,190 可以看到交易者在那个mm目标位开始止盈 809 00:37:36,940 --> 00:37:41,000 非常强势的多头突破通道是从这里开始吗 810 00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,239 也许是市场形成了一个圆谷底 811 00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:44,480 然后加速上涨 812 00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,679 这是一个强势的多头突破 813 00:37:46,679 --> 00:37:49,440 然后回调持续了15~20根K线 814 00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:51,000 然后才进入上涨通道 815 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:52,800 一些计算机程序会这样认为 816 00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,170 其他计算机程序有不同的算法 817 00:37:55,170 --> 00:38:00,239 我倾向于认为这也是通道的一部分通道 818 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,079 从这里或这里开始 819 00:38:02,079 --> 00:38:04,838 这是一个水平的通道 820 00:38:05,059 --> 00:38:08,789 如果回调横盘持续20或30根K线 821 00:38:08,789 --> 00:38:11,869 那么趋势恢复上涨的概率变小 822 00:38:11,869 --> 00:38:16,349 到和趋势反转下跌的概率大致相同 823 00:38:16,889 --> 00:38:19,969 这里持续了大约15根K线左右 824 00:38:19,969 --> 00:38:24,009 我仍然认为概率偏向趋势会恢复上涨 825 00:38:24,579 --> 00:38:25,719 之前说过 826 00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:28,630 每当多头突破进入通道 827 00:38:28,630 --> 00:38:30,349 也许这是一个通道 828 00:38:30,349 --> 00:38:34,110 只有25%的概率会加速上涨 829 00:38:34,110 --> 00:38:36,590 然而如果通道并不清晰 830 00:38:36,590 --> 00:38:38,570 而且主要是水平的 831 00:38:38,570 --> 00:38:42,840 那么多头加速突破的概率远高于25% 832 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:44,900 更接近50% 833 00:38:44,900 --> 00:38:49,079 这更像是一个趋势恢复还是趋势反转的问题 834 00:38:49,079 --> 00:38:50,809 多头突破回调 835 00:38:50,809 --> 00:38:52,929 这是一个通道还是一个震荡区间 836 00:38:52,929 --> 00:38:53,829 很难分辨 837 00:38:53,829 --> 00:38:55,119 但它越平坦 838 00:38:55,119 --> 00:38:57,559 恢复上涨趋势的概率就越大 839 00:38:57,559 --> 00:38:59,929 50%嗯 840 00:39:00,005 --> 00:39:05,050 并不是只有25%的概率向上突破 841 00:39:07,860 --> 00:39:09,619 相当平坦的上涨通道 842 00:39:09,619 --> 00:39:13,039 因此不是75%的概率向下跌破 843 00:39:13,039 --> 00:39:16,519 向上或向下突破的概率更接近50对 844 00:39:16,519 --> 00:39:18,440 51 845 00:39:22,559 --> 00:39:28,239 在这个视频中我讲解了通报会演变成震荡区间 846 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:32,139 70%的概率向上或向下突破通道的尝试 847 00:39:32,139 --> 00:39:35,630 会在五根K线之内失败反转 848 00:39:35,630 --> 00:39:37,150 然而25%的时间 849 00:39:37,150 --> 00:39:39,550 上涨通道会被加速向上突破或者下降 850 00:39:39,550 --> 00:39:42,579 通道会被加速向下跌破 851 00:39:42,579 --> 00:39:46,239 然后市场周期重新开始突破新的通道 852 00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,659 然后震荡区间 853 00:39:50,380 --> 00:39:51,860 我是二布鲁克斯 854 00:39:51,860 --> 00:39:55,199 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程通道的第五节课 855 00:39:55,199 --> 00:39:57,260 到这里就讲完了
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