【Financial Education】账户单日暴涨11万！反转来了？

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你得翻我的煎饼了

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女士们先生们看这个，有人今天在我的前任页面上发布了这个

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公开计数已达十五万一千五百美元

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这简直是个巨大的波动

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但股市中有很多有趣的事情在发生

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从股市内部情况来看

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今天看波动率指数VIX

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下跌了17%

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今年至今仍上涨43%

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波动率大幅飙升

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显然今年

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尽管如此

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呃

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短期内正在暴跌

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没错

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看看原油

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原油今日下跌约16%

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请记住

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今年至今仍上涨64%

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我们正在讨论

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在这些指标回落方面还有很长的路要走

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没错

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GSG

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我认为这是最重要的事情

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现在观看的每个人都应该跟踪

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GSG将允许

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你知道的

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如果经济出现大幅通胀

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随着时间推移

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当时间流逝

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嗯

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GSG今年飙升了3%

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4%之多

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这其中很多归因于油价

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但这已是巨大波动

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但今日下跌超7%

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这是好消息

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我们需要保持这种走势

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如果你想考虑降息

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美联储降息

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如果考虑十年期国债可能下行

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我们需要GSG大幅走低

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从当前水平大幅下降

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看看Meta股票

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Meta股票

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我们上涨了三十

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大约三十

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Meta股票今日上涨九千美元

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这只长期低迷的股票出现惊人走势

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关于股价表现

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基础要素

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我们都知道这家公司非常出色对吧

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但就股价走势而言

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一直处于低迷状态

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过去六个月确实如此

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大致没错

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看啊 AMD股价上涨约二十

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今天这里涨到四千美元

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现在在公众市场翻倍上涨

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AMD股价现在看涨

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三十四万美元的持仓表现优异

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随着市场风险偏好上升

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你会看到AMD飙升至三百二十五美元可能再创新高

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如果市场短期内保持风险偏好

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亚马逊

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这是另一只寻求

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更高价位的股票

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股价目标突破两万五美元

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亚马逊今日行情

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当前市值一百二十四万美元

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亚马逊股价上涨

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你知道这正是有趣的部分

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当市场出现小幅波动时

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你会看到市场回暖迹象

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真是令人兴奋

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如果能持续几周或几个月的风险偏好行情

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天啊

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我们将讨论完全不同层次

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许多股票价格和投资组合

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没错

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看今天的 Celsius 股价

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该股上涨六千四百美元

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约四点

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六个百分点的涨幅

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与此同时还有看空者

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Palantir

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这只看空股今日下跌

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五点六个百分点

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Palantir 股价大幅下挫

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目前仍持有一千八百二十

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Salesforce 股价再创新低

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该股今日下跌逾三%

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今年以来累计下跌三三%

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好的

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今天视频中要讨论的四个核心主题

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第一个问题是这是否只是假突破

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我们刚刚

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还是即将迎来风险偏好行情

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或者市场即将

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暂且称之为大幅上涨行情

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我们将在本视频开头讨论这个问题

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我将分享我的观点

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视角二

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这些公司怎么样

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像Palantir这样的概念股

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比如Salesforce

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另一个方面

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你知道的

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我们称之为SaaS相关公司

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他们现在发生了什么

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他们何时开始启动这类动作

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我们将在本视频中讨论

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好的

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第三点

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我将告诉你我现在手头有多少现金

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我现在持有的现金数额

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在此时间节点

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我已消耗了多少资源

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显然

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以及过去几个月发生的各种戏剧性事件，第四点

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我们正在讨论哪种新股票

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我最可能买入的新股票是什么

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今天我会在本视频中分享

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一件事

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我只需要你们大家

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请轻点点赞按钮

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这对我来说意义重大

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希望你们能珍惜我每天制作的这些视频

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我也非常感谢大家的陪伴

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我只需要回报一点轻点点赞

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请确保订阅本频道

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目前频道已有九十二万一千多名订阅者

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今日置顶评论区

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免费工作坊

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我为大家录制了

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这是一个三五分钟的工作坊

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几周前我为大家录制的

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这基本上是如何在财富各阶段管理投资组合

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不管你现在的投资组合是五万美元

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五万、五十万、五百万

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无论你处于哪个阶段

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该视频对此有深入讲解

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可通过邮件或短信发送

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然而

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如果你想接收

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该工作坊完全免费

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好的

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女士们先生们

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请大家注意

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我们是否处于新上升周期的起点

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好的

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现在看看这个道指

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一个巨大的交易日

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显然道指上涨超过一千点

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纳斯达克大幅上涨，涨了五百点

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全球主要市场大幅上涨没错吧

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很多人对停火局势感到兴奋

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所有这些情况都是这样对吧

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首先我想看看的是

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当前走势如何

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我们是否处于v型复苏中

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而且

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这确实是一个v型复苏

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我们现在正处于其中

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这非常明显对吧

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这不像

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这里有一点平衡

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不

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现在情况已经显著了对吧

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我们正在形成清晰的v型走势

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大家都知道

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你知道的

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这根本无需争论

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目前来看

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这种v型复苏有趣的地方是

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与去年的情况非常相似

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去年只是近期走势的极端案例

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所以比较今年和去年的数据

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简直令人毛骨悚然

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现在两者高度吻合

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需要注意的是

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当时曾出现过强劲的v型反弹

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随后又大幅回落

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并未创历史新低

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这一点很重要

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所以如果你考虑

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市场能否在此基础上继续上涨

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如果市场出现下跌

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在未来几天

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我们必须确保不创市场新低

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只要不出现这种情况

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接下来我们将一路平稳回升

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持续复苏

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转眼间

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市场或将再次创下历史新高

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接下来需要思考的是

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为何去年的极端性远超今年

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没错就像这次下跌

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只是去年下跌的缩小版

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但为何去年如此极端呢

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去年的情况之所以如此极端

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这可能对许多不同事物造成严重影响

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这种中东局势

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中东国家

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我甚至不确定能否使用这个词

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呃

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你知道的

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我不知道该怎么做

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嗯

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你知道的

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如今这些AI程序运作起来

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简直太荒谬了

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但核心问题是中东局势

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没错

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显然可能推高油价

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这可能引发通胀

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进而导致美联储减少降息次数

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可能对经济造成一定伤害

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但说实话这不是主要因素

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对吧

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确实存在

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但并非

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啊

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我的天啊

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有人每月要多花四十美元油费

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整个经济现在都崩溃了

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我们并不脆弱

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我们更脆弱

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但也不至于那么脆弱

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对吧

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这就是关键

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但这远不及去年的关税风波

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去年的关税风波

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女士们先生们请记住

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没错

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我们曾讨论过这会加剧通胀

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可能大幅飙升

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如果企业

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需要向政府支付大量关税

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最终会转嫁给消费者

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最终传导至消费者

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这会在通胀数据中体现

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没错

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我们对此感到担忧

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此外还要担心供应链问题

246
00:06:58,569 --> 00:06:59,829
因为你知道

247
00:06:59,829 --> 00:07:00,990
比如说

248
00:07:00,990 --> 00:07:05,939
去年四月特朗普曾提议对中国加征百以上关税

249
00:07:05,939 --> 00:07:07,420
这基本意味着

250
00:07:07,420 --> 00:07:09,220
无论你在华生产什么

251
00:07:09,220 --> 00:07:10,579
你必须把它转移到另一个国家

252
00:07:10,579 --> 00:07:12,529
当时我们正考虑正确的事情

253
00:07:12,529 --> 00:07:15,050
这导致供应链陷入混乱

254
00:07:15,050 --> 00:07:16,089
这会引发

255
00:07:16,089 --> 00:07:16,930
呃

256
00:07:16,930 --> 00:07:18,889
甚至可能再次引发通胀问题

257
00:07:18,889 --> 00:07:23,490
没错，上次供应链混乱显然源于疫情

258
00:07:23,490 --> 00:07:24,810
然后啊

259
00:07:24,810 --> 00:07:27,129
你可以简单视为对企业的大税

260
00:07:27,129 --> 00:07:29,949
就像对大企业的重税

261
00:07:29,949 --> 00:07:32,410
这对股市非常不利

262
00:07:32,410 --> 00:07:34,430
如果你想知道为何去年情况更极端

263
00:07:34,430 --> 00:07:36,259
我们去年经历的比今年严重得多

264
00:07:36,259 --> 00:07:40,019
因为它影响了更多领域

265
00:07:40,019 --> 00:07:43,980
最终可能导致股市大幅下跌

266
00:07:43,980 --> 00:07:45,720
现在

267
00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:46,779
情况是这样

268
00:07:46,779 --> 00:07:47,240
好的

269
00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,660
关于停火局势

270
00:07:50,660 --> 00:07:52,120
谁知道会发生什么

271
00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:52,629
没错

272
00:07:52,629 --> 00:07:55,129
美国违反了停火协议

273
00:07:55,129 --> 00:07:58,139
根据该中东国家的说法

274
00:07:58,139 --> 00:07:59,600
局势似乎进展顺利

275
00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:01,569
进展得非常好

276
00:08:01,569 --> 00:08:03,129
我们将观察后续发展

277
00:08:03,129 --> 00:08:04,410
我不会太过兴奋

278
00:08:04,410 --> 00:08:05,930
昨晚看到新闻时

279
00:08:05,930 --> 00:08:06,850
我心想

280
00:08:06,850 --> 00:08:07,290
你知道的

281
00:08:07,290 --> 00:08:09,709
我没有做突发新闻报道

282
00:08:09,709 --> 00:08:11,149
我无所谓

283
00:08:11,149 --> 00:08:11,709
我们拭目以待

284
00:08:11,709 --> 00:08:13,459
我们将看看如何发展

285
00:08:13,459 --> 00:08:17,500
但必须从股市角度理解

286
00:08:17,500 --> 00:08:20,620
以及为何股市大幅上涨

287
00:08:20,620 --> 00:08:22,019
触底并开始

288
00:08:22,019 --> 00:08:22,420
你知道的

289
00:08:22,420 --> 00:08:24,600
形成类似V型复苏

290
00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:26,899
让我回顾去年的关税风波

291
00:08:26,899 --> 00:08:27,399
例如

292
00:08:27,399 --> 00:08:29,860
当时关税大幅上涨

293
00:08:29,860 --> 00:08:32,399
局势越来越令人担忧

294
00:08:32,399 --> 00:08:36,659
关税风波的最紧张时刻是4月9日

295
00:08:36,659 --> 00:08:36,980
好的

296
00:08:36,980 --> 00:08:38,039
这就是顶点

297
00:08:38,039 --> 00:08:40,019
市场最恐慌的阶段

298
00:08:40,019 --> 00:08:40,360
底部

299
00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:41,679
大致在4月9日

300
00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:43,000
4月11日左右

301
00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,000
我认为实际上是四月九日或七日

302
00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:45,679
大概在那个时间段

303
00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:47,279
股市见底了

304
00:08:47,279 --> 00:08:49,879
那就是当时最恐怖的时刻

305
00:08:49,879 --> 00:08:50,500
没错

306
00:08:50,500 --> 00:08:52,320
股市在那里见底

307
00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:53,120
然后开始上涨

308
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:53,379
不

309
00:08:53,379 --> 00:08:58,159
这是否意味着关税问题完全解决了？绝对不是

310
00:08:58,159 --> 00:09:02,200
我们仍长期面临严重的关税问题

311
00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:02,759
没错

312
00:09:02,759 --> 00:09:04,179
这并没有缓解局势

313
00:09:04,179 --> 00:09:04,440
比如

314
00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:06,399
未来几个月仍有更多剧变

315
00:09:06,399 --> 00:09:06,840
对的

316
00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,440
那就是最恐怖的阶段没错

317
00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:14,049
然后局势开始逐渐好转

318
00:09:14,049 --> 00:09:19,379
这与中东局势的类似现象

319
00:09:19,379 --> 00:09:21,759
特朗普正在谈论

320
00:09:21,759 --> 00:09:22,399
你知道的

321
00:09:22,399 --> 00:09:25,440
摧毁他们的文明

322
00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,729
让他们退回石器时代

323
00:09:28,729 --> 00:09:33,740
中东国家计划摧毁该地区大量油设施

324
00:09:33,740 --> 00:09:35,259
达到最恐怖的时刻

325
00:09:35,259 --> 00:09:37,059
再恐怖不过了

326
00:09:37,059 --> 00:09:39,830
谈论毁灭文明

327
00:09:40,269 --> 00:09:41,350
这就是顶点

328
00:09:41,350 --> 00:09:42,009
好的

329
00:09:42,009 --> 00:09:45,730
现在发生的一切都比这更不恐怖

330
00:09:45,730 --> 00:09:46,970
我们正在毁灭文明

331
00:09:46,970 --> 00:09:47,809
你知道的

332
00:09:47,809 --> 00:09:49,149
这个国家威胁要

333
00:09:49,149 --> 00:09:49,610
你知道的

334
00:09:49,610 --> 00:09:52,889
摧毁该地区所有油设施

335
00:09:52,889 --> 00:09:53,289
没错

336
00:09:53,289 --> 00:09:54,769
这就是最恐怖的时刻

337
00:09:54,769 --> 00:09:57,820
现在出现的任何问题

338
00:09:57,820 --> 00:10:00,470
都比毁灭文明更不恐怖

339
00:10:00,470 --> 00:10:02,809
因为已经达到了极端程度

340
00:10:02,809 --> 00:10:03,669
你可能

341
00:10:03,669 --> 00:10:06,230
没有比毁灭文明更极端的事了

342
00:10:06,230 --> 00:10:06,649
好的

343
00:10:06,649 --> 00:10:11,570
现在如何让市场恐慌

344
00:10:11,570 --> 00:10:14,429
很难因为已经极度夸张

345
00:10:14,429 --> 00:10:16,409
这也是市场已经复苏的原因

346
00:10:16,409 --> 00:10:19,779
正在形成巨大的V型反弹

347
00:10:19,779 --> 00:10:21,080
此时此刻非常重要

348
00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:22,139
大家应该明白吧

349
00:10:22,139 --> 00:10:23,980
局势正在好转

350
00:10:23,980 --> 00:10:25,850
此时此刻就是现在

351
00:10:25,850 --> 00:10:29,029
这也是现在正在观看的每个人都非常重要的事情

352
00:10:29,029 --> 00:10:31,919
这就是为什么你要进行每周定投

353
00:10:31,919 --> 00:10:34,919
或者在你的投资组合中进行双周定投

354
00:10:34,919 --> 00:10:35,889
基本上没错

355
00:10:35,889 --> 00:10:38,190
你不必担心完美时机

356
00:10:38,190 --> 00:10:39,919
就市场而言

357
00:10:39,919 --> 00:10:43,139
太多人沉迷于试图精准择时

358
00:10:43,139 --> 00:10:44,419
所以我得卖出这些股票

359
00:10:44,419 --> 00:10:48,230
因为这将会非常糟糕，而且我们还有更低的位置要跌

360
00:10:48,230 --> 00:10:50,110
还有这些胡言乱语

361
00:10:50,110 --> 00:10:50,529
没错

362
00:10:50,529 --> 00:10:53,470
专注于在投资组合中持续买入

363
00:10:53,470 --> 00:10:55,090
无论你知道的

364
00:10:55,090 --> 00:10:58,870
如果你认为纳斯达克会下跌20%、50%或900%

365
00:10:58,870 --> 00:10:59,120
比如

366
00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:00,200
你知道不可能跌那么多

367
00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:01,059
99%

368
00:11:01,059 --> 00:11:02,279
无论你的什么

369
00:11:02,279 --> 00:11:03,839
小理论都没问题

370
00:11:03,839 --> 00:11:08,158
为你的纳斯达克走势小理论祝福吧

371
00:11:08,158 --> 00:11:08,999
你根本不懂

372
00:11:08,999 --> 00:11:09,839
我根本不懂

373
00:11:09,839 --> 00:11:11,899
我已经做了十七年多了

374
00:11:11,899 --> 00:11:12,740
我身处市场

375
00:11:12,740 --> 00:11:14,840
每天都在这里

376
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,899
每天都有大量资金投入

377
00:11:17,899 --> 00:11:19,220
我无法告诉你

378
00:11:19,220 --> 00:11:22,200
你知道纳斯达克下一个千点在哪里

379
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:24,000
明天可能会出问题

380
00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:24,340
好吧

381
00:11:24,340 --> 00:11:25,460
纳斯达克下跌一千点

382
00:11:25,460 --> 00:11:29,789
谁知道我可以告诉你纳斯达克下一个两万点在哪里

383
00:11:29,789 --> 00:11:30,870
而且会更高

384
00:11:30,870 --> 00:11:31,230
没错

385
00:11:32,230 --> 00:11:35,240
每周或每两周买入

386
00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:36,720
不要试图完美择时

387
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:37,600
这个市场

388
00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,980
底线是你应该上周就开始买入

389
00:11:39,980 --> 00:11:41,700
纳斯达克下跌了13%

390
00:11:41,700 --> 00:11:43,039
从历史高点算起

391
00:11:43,039 --> 00:11:45,419
多久才能遇到纳斯达克下跌13%

392
00:11:45,419 --> 00:11:49,799
从历史高点算起大概每两年一次

393
00:11:49,799 --> 00:11:52,259
这样的机会要把握

394
00:11:52,259 --> 00:11:55,009
别袖手旁观要抓住机会

395
00:11:55,009 --> 00:11:56,629
纳斯达克下跌13%

396
00:11:56,629 --> 00:11:58,029
到处都有好价

397
00:11:58,029 --> 00:11:58,769
你最好开始买入

398
00:11:58,769 --> 00:11:59,730
VIX指数达到30

399
00:11:59,730 --> 00:12:01,750
你也必须买入

400
00:12:01,750 --> 00:12:03,710
恐惧指数

401
00:12:03,710 --> 00:12:06,490
恐惧成分指数达到了极端恐惧

402
00:12:06,490 --> 00:12:08,309
不仅仅是轻微的极端恐惧

403
00:12:08,309 --> 00:12:10,570
深入到了极端恐惧状态

404
00:12:10,820 --> 00:12:11,899
现在你可以这么说

405
00:12:11,899 --> 00:12:16,820
但去年纳斯达克下跌了超过20%

406
00:12:16,820 --> 00:12:18,179
我们只下跌了13%

407
00:12:18,179 --> 00:12:19,440
所以我不应该买入

408
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,330
去年VIX指数飙升至60

409
00:12:22,330 --> 00:12:25,289
去年极端恐惧指标更加恐慌

410
00:12:25,289 --> 00:12:27,350
并非每年情况相同

411
00:12:27,350 --> 00:12:28,750
这就是发生的事情

412
00:12:28,750 --> 00:12:34,210
今年股市远不如去年可怕

413
00:12:34,210 --> 00:12:35,830
所以不能假设

414
00:12:35,830 --> 00:12:37,779
去年的情况并非如此

415
00:12:37,779 --> 00:12:41,960
这就是自大萧条以来人们玩的游戏

416
00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,039
自大萧条以来每次市场下跌

417
00:12:45,039 --> 00:12:48,429
人们都说会更糟

418
00:12:48,429 --> 00:12:51,690
因为可能跌至50%或更大跌幅

419
00:12:51,690 --> 00:12:55,703
自我入市以来我不断听到这个说法

420
00:12:56,350 --> 00:12:59,509
当时市场在大萧条中跌了50%

421
00:12:59,509 --> 00:13:01,919
大家开始认为这就是常态

422
00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:02,940
每次市场下跌时

423
00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:03,100
哦

424
00:13:03,100 --> 00:13:04,559
会跌50%

425
00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:05,419
确实发生过

426
00:13:05,419 --> 00:13:06,039
但并未持续

427
00:13:06,039 --> 00:13:11,970
这些年发生了太多疯狂事

428
00:13:11,970 --> 00:13:14,460
市场下跌了多少次

429
00:13:14,460 --> 00:13:17,639
大萧条后从未出现50%暴跌

430
00:13:17,639 --> 00:13:20,460
过去17年经历了诸多动荡

431
00:13:20,460 --> 00:13:22,179
但仍未发生

432
00:13:22,179 --> 00:13:24,419
美联储缩减资产负债表

433
00:13:24,419 --> 00:13:25,519
扩大资产负债表

434
00:13:25,519 --> 00:13:26,700
美联储向市场注水

435
00:13:26,700 --> 00:13:27,759
市场被大量资金推动

436
00:13:27,759 --> 00:13:28,779
随后又撤回

437
00:13:28,779 --> 00:13:30,419
发生了数百万种变化

438
00:13:30,419 --> 00:13:32,940
不同总统轮替更迭

439
00:13:32,940 --> 00:13:34,980
归根结底

440
00:13:36,700 --> 00:13:38,120
我们反而上涨了

441
00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,120
从未出现50%崩盘

442
00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,590
不能假设

443
00:13:42,590 --> 00:13:42,909
哦

444
00:13:42,909 --> 00:13:45,009
去年发生了这种情况

445
00:13:45,009 --> 00:13:47,029
所以我必须等待

446
00:13:47,029 --> 00:13:49,389
你疯了

447
00:13:49,389 --> 00:13:50,789
去年你也这么说过

448
00:13:50,789 --> 00:13:52,029
就像去年那样

449
00:13:52,029 --> 00:13:52,429
例如

450
00:13:52,429 --> 00:13:53,289
纳斯达克下跌20%

451
00:13:53,289 --> 00:13:56,360
另外你可能在说，比如在2022年

452
00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:57,480
纳斯达克从顶峰到谷底

453
00:13:57,480 --> 00:13:58,480
下跌了37%

454
00:13:59,799 --> 00:14:04,159
所以我得等待35.37%的回调

455
00:14:04,159 --> 00:14:05,720
我们可以玩这些游戏比如

456
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:06,899
哦以前的情况是

457
00:14:06,899 --> 00:14:08,080
它真的暴跌了兄弟

458
00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:12,109
长期来看你会获得非常糟糕的回报

459
00:14:12,109 --> 00:14:13,269
非常糟糕的回报

460
00:14:13,269 --> 00:14:15,208
如果你玩这种游戏比如

461
00:14:15,208 --> 00:14:16,068
过去曾发生过这种情况

462
00:14:16,068 --> 00:14:17,068
而今年也会发生

463
00:14:17,068 --> 00:14:18,568
所以我不能买 不 不 不 不 不

464
00:14:18,568 --> 00:14:19,029
好的

465
00:14:19,029 --> 00:14:22,509
专注于每周或至少每两周买入一次

466
00:14:22,509 --> 00:14:23,870
一个让我非常恼火的评论

467
00:14:23,870 --> 00:14:25,850
有时你会看到类似我身无分文

468
00:14:25,850 --> 00:14:27,269
去赚点钱吧

469
00:14:27,269 --> 00:14:28,450
去赚点钱吧

470
00:14:28,450 --> 00:14:29,850
我们没时间身无分文

471
00:14:29,850 --> 00:14:31,210
我们必须去赚点钱

472
00:14:31,210 --> 00:14:33,350
你需要处于无法

473
00:14:33,350 --> 00:14:34,690
收入超过支出的状态

474
00:14:34,690 --> 00:14:36,690
这样才能持续在市场中买入

475
00:14:36,690 --> 00:14:39,730
那里不应该存在身无分文的情况

476
00:14:39,730 --> 00:14:41,370
除非你当天缺钱

477
00:14:41,370 --> 00:14:43,318
或者本周缺钱

478
00:14:43,318 --> 00:14:45,099
但至少每两周

479
00:14:45,099 --> 00:14:46,798
你需要构建你的投资组合

480
00:14:46,798 --> 00:14:50,610
我以前在八美元时工作时就是这样做的

481
00:14:50,610 --> 00:14:52,190
我曾在快速任务期间这样做

482
00:14:52,190 --> 00:14:53,230
至少每两周

483
00:14:53,230 --> 00:14:54,919
我随时准备买入

484
00:14:54,919 --> 00:14:56,120
这就是应有的状态

485
00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:56,440
兄弟

486
00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:58,159
至少每两周

487
00:14:58,159 --> 00:15:00,990
你必须随时准备买入

488
00:15:00,990 --> 00:15:02,330
过去二十年

489
00:15:02,330 --> 00:15:03,750
对于纳斯达克

490
00:15:03,750 --> 00:15:06,129
每次都

491
00:15:06,129 --> 00:15:08,190
处于调整或崩盘中

492
00:15:08,190 --> 00:15:09,690
他们说还会更糟

493
00:15:09,690 --> 00:15:10,730
别现在买入

494
00:15:10,730 --> 00:15:12,350
还会更糟

495
00:15:12,850 --> 00:15:14,549
从未发生过

496
00:15:14,549 --> 00:15:16,210
当人们说是的

497
00:15:16,210 --> 00:15:18,419
出去买入却从不

498
00:15:18,419 --> 00:15:19,240
总是

499
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:20,399
还会更糟

500
00:15:20,399 --> 00:15:21,659
外面一片凄凉

501
00:15:21,659 --> 00:15:22,639
情况只会变得更糟

502
00:15:22,639 --> 00:15:23,580
情况只会变得更糟

503
00:15:23,580 --> 00:15:24,580
情况只会变得更糟

504
00:15:24,580 --> 00:15:26,059
在那场重大金融危机期间

505
00:15:26,059 --> 00:15:27,700
纳斯达克指数跌幅未达50%

506
00:15:27,700 --> 00:15:29,299
但对许多人来说仍不够好

507
00:15:29,299 --> 00:15:29,820
他们正在讨论

508
00:15:29,820 --> 00:15:31,029
它还会大幅下跌

509
00:15:31,029 --> 00:15:34,149
你可以搜索到大量当时的报道文章

510
00:15:34,149 --> 00:15:36,169
发现人们仍在谈论

511
00:15:36,169 --> 00:15:37,669
比如那些旧的采访和相关资料

512
00:15:37,669 --> 00:15:39,110
它正在持续走低

513
00:15:39,110 --> 00:15:40,509
随后我们经历了二次探底

514
00:15:41,169 --> 00:15:43,509
所有迹象都显示它在继续下跌

515
00:15:43,948 --> 00:15:47,589
这种状况发生在2015年夏季

516
00:15:47,589 --> 00:15:49,089
它正在持续走低

517
00:15:49,089 --> 00:15:50,149
2018年

518
00:15:50,149 --> 00:15:51,028
它正在持续走低

519
00:15:51,028 --> 00:15:51,948
新冠疫情引发的暴跌

520
00:15:51,948 --> 00:15:52,729
它正在持续走低

521
00:15:52,729 --> 00:15:53,489
2022年

522
00:15:53,489 --> 00:15:54,149
它正在持续走低

523
00:15:54,149 --> 00:15:55,289
比如2022年

524
00:15:55,289 --> 00:15:57,350
正如我之前提到的第四季度

525
00:15:57,350 --> 00:15:57,809
呃

526
00:15:57,809 --> 00:15:59,809
从2021年第四季度峰值到2022年第四季度低点

527
00:15:59,809 --> 00:16:00,610
2022年第四季度谷底

528
00:16:00,610 --> 00:16:02,049
下跌了3.7%

529
00:16:02,049 --> 00:16:04,259
但对某些人来说仍不够理想

530
00:16:04,259 --> 00:16:05,500
但对某些人来说仍不够理想

531
00:16:05,500 --> 00:16:06,379
我的天啊

532
00:16:06,379 --> 00:16:09,700
全球顶尖科技公司以疯狂折扣价出售

533
00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:11,440
但对某些人来说仍不够理想

534
00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,759
显然解放日行情仍不够吸引人

535
00:16:14,759 --> 00:16:17,919
情况只会变得更糟，这次也不例外

536
00:16:17,919 --> 00:16:22,078
情况永远在变得更糟，但你却错失财富

537
00:16:22,078 --> 00:16:24,719
现在你仍在错失财富

538
00:16:24,719 --> 00:16:26,538
看看这个

539
00:16:26,538 --> 00:16:28,730
天啊

540
00:16:28,730 --> 00:16:36,980
纳斯达克指数两周内已上涨超9个百分点

541
00:16:36,980 --> 00:16:38,259
两周前

542
00:16:38,259 --> 00:16:39,039
女士们先生们

543
00:16:39,039 --> 00:16:42,980
不到两周时间就获得一年收益

544
00:16:42,980 --> 00:16:44,960
刚刚脱离底部

545
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,279
这就是股市波动的速度

546
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:50,120
难以置信

547
00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,099
绝对令人难以置信

548
00:16:52,418 --> 00:16:53,359
我说

549
00:16:53,359 --> 00:16:54,918
这简直疯狂

550
00:16:54,918 --> 00:16:56,578
就像你思考的那样关于p five hundred

551
00:16:56,578 --> 00:16:57,339
你知道的

552
00:16:57,339 --> 00:16:58,339
当你进入股市

553
00:16:58,339 --> 00:16:59,139
你开始学习理财

554
00:16:59,139 --> 00:17:00,778
你会逐渐了解p five hundred

555
00:17:00,778 --> 00:17:01,259
就像啊

556
00:17:01,259 --> 00:17:02,298
如果你购买p five hundred

557
00:17:02,298 --> 00:17:05,138
大概每年能赚八个百分点左右

558
00:17:05,138 --> 00:17:07,229
对啊纳斯达克现在给你九个百分点

559
00:17:07,229 --> 00:17:09,028
不到两周时间

560
00:17:11,909 --> 00:17:13,599
你听说过这个吗

561
00:17:13,599 --> 00:17:14,700
这叫做kiss

562
00:17:14,700 --> 00:17:15,640
kiss方法

563
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:16,440
kiss原则

564
00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:17,150
对吧

565
00:17:17,150 --> 00:17:18,230
保持简单

566
00:17:18,230 --> 00:17:19,109
愚蠢

567
00:17:19,109 --> 00:17:20,690
大多数系统效果最佳

568
00:17:20,690 --> 00:17:21,930
如果保持简单

569
00:17:21,930 --> 00:17:23,710
而不是变得复杂

570
00:17:23,710 --> 00:17:25,609
这就是股市的情况

571
00:17:25,609 --> 00:17:28,499
人们总想过度复杂化这些事情

572
00:17:28,499 --> 00:17:29,299
你知道的

573
00:17:29,299 --> 00:17:31,359
试图在最佳时机买入

574
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:32,740
已经下跌了十三个百分点

575
00:17:32,740 --> 00:17:33,819
对于纳斯达克还不够好

576
00:17:33,819 --> 00:17:34,559
我需要更低

577
00:17:34,559 --> 00:17:35,359
两三次

578
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:36,619
我需要抛出十八个百分点

579
00:17:36,619 --> 00:17:37,039
我需要

580
00:17:37,039 --> 00:17:39,240
我需要下跌四百个百分点

581
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:39,660
哦

582
00:17:39,660 --> 00:17:40,609
你知道的

583
00:17:40,609 --> 00:17:41,529
总之

584
00:17:41,529 --> 00:17:42,210
女士们先生们

585
00:17:42,210 --> 00:17:42,829
保持简单

586
00:17:42,829 --> 00:17:43,250
愚蠢

587
00:17:43,250 --> 00:17:44,769
你会发现绝佳机会

588
00:17:44,769 --> 00:17:46,460
抓住这些绝佳机会

589
00:17:46,460 --> 00:17:47,579
不要纠结于

590
00:17:47,579 --> 00:17:49,980
可能再跌五个百分点或三

591
00:17:49,980 --> 00:17:50,680
不

592
00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,009
保持简单

593
00:17:52,009 --> 00:17:54,950
这只股票被严重低估

594
00:17:54,950 --> 00:17:56,109
我要买入这只股票

595
00:17:56,109 --> 00:17:58,089
我要长期持有几年

596
00:17:58,089 --> 00:17:59,480
你知道接下来该做什么

597
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,680
如果一个月后股价大幅低于买入价

598
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:03,839
但你依然看好基本面

599
00:18:03,839 --> 00:18:06,859
相信公司未来三到五年的增长

600
00:18:06,859 --> 00:18:07,960
七十年

601
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:09,559
你买入更多股份

602
00:18:09,559 --> 00:18:10,880
你继续增持股份

603
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:12,079
你说我身无分文吗

604
00:18:12,079 --> 00:18:13,539
你得想办法弄点钱

605
00:18:13,539 --> 00:18:14,880
收入超过支出

606
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,779
保持简单原则

607
00:18:16,779 --> 00:18:19,059
就像我们不必过度复杂化这个游戏

608
00:18:19,059 --> 00:18:20,160
保持简单

609
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:21,619
收入多于支出

610
00:18:21,619 --> 00:18:23,049
持续买入

611
00:18:23,049 --> 00:18:25,170
市场中的波动越大

612
00:18:25,170 --> 00:18:27,230
你越要逢低加仓

613
00:18:27,230 --> 00:18:29,000
别玩杠杆投机

614
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:30,819
查看市盈率

615
00:18:30,819 --> 00:18:33,480
未来几年评估这些公司的估值

616
00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:34,559
学习利润表

617
00:18:34,559 --> 00:18:35,599
资产负债表

618
00:18:35,599 --> 00:18:36,619
坚持游戏规则

619
00:18:36,619 --> 00:18:37,319
其实很简单

620
00:18:37,319 --> 00:18:38,409
越简单

621
00:18:38,409 --> 00:18:39,848
可能获得更好回报

622
00:18:39,848 --> 00:18:40,288
你将会得到

623
00:18:40,288 --> 00:18:41,148
越复杂

624
00:18:41,148 --> 00:18:42,409
你试图操作这些事情

625
00:18:42,409 --> 00:18:43,989
你知道必须自问

626
00:18:43,989 --> 00:18:47,400
为什么世界上最聪明的人

627
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,119
却不是最富有的

628
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,400
为何顶尖基金经理

629
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:52,339
都不是最富有的

630
00:18:52,339 --> 00:18:52,680
我是说

631
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:57,559
如果你听过许多全球最成功的基金经理长期谈论

632
00:18:57,559 --> 00:18:58,400
没错

633
00:18:58,400 --> 00:18:59,359
彼得·林奇

634
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,460
不管托马斯·彼得·林奇还是沃伦·巴菲特

635
00:19:01,460 --> 00:19:01,799
你知道的

636
00:19:01,799 --> 00:19:02,640
这些人都

637
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:03,039
呃

638
00:19:03,039 --> 00:19:03,799
斯坦利·德龙·米勒

639
00:19:03,799 --> 00:19:06,150
像这些传奇人物

640
00:19:06,150 --> 00:19:08,450
在长期获取惊人收益方面

641
00:19:09,650 --> 00:19:13,358
这些人都不像你想象的高智商

642
00:19:13,358 --> 00:19:14,459
你见过的那些人

643
00:19:14,459 --> 00:19:15,098
天啊

644
00:19:15,098 --> 00:19:16,358
他们都是天才

645
00:19:16,358 --> 00:19:16,719
没错

646
00:19:16,719 --> 00:19:19,970
他们备受尊敬因为财富惊人且受人敬仰

647
00:19:19,970 --> 00:19:21,450
因为回报率难以置信

648
00:19:21,450 --> 00:19:26,849
但这并非因为他们开发了复杂的计算

649
00:19:26,849 --> 00:19:28,750
我们要这样操作

650
00:19:28,750 --> 00:19:29,789
他们一直保持非常

651
00:19:29,789 --> 00:19:32,200
非常简洁且

652
00:19:33,599 --> 00:19:35,720
优质企业的价格变得极具吸引力

653
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:37,039
他们收购了这些企业

654
00:19:37,039 --> 00:19:41,059
并在多年间跨多资产持续操作

655
00:19:41,059 --> 00:19:43,599
为自己创造了惊人的回报

656
00:19:43,599 --> 00:19:45,140
没错你知道的

657
00:19:45,140 --> 00:19:45,900
看看我自己

658
00:19:45,900 --> 00:19:48,000
我是这里最聪明的人吗

659
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,068
绝不可能绝不可能

660
00:19:50,068 --> 00:19:52,289
我只是一个普通人

661
00:19:52,289 --> 00:19:53,730
我对商业理解得相当透彻

662
00:19:53,730 --> 00:19:55,049
也对投资有深刻认识

663
00:19:55,049 --> 00:19:57,699
而且对人性心理也有一定了解

664
00:19:57,699 --> 00:19:59,538
我不是什么超天才

665
00:19:59,538 --> 00:20:01,618
让我进入高等数学课堂

666
00:20:01,618 --> 00:20:03,078
我肯定表现不佳

667
00:20:03,078 --> 00:20:05,710
让我进入任何高阶学科

668
00:20:05,710 --> 00:20:07,289
除了与金钱相关的科目

669
00:20:07,289 --> 00:20:08,089
我会表现好吗

670
00:20:08,089 --> 00:20:09,089
绝对不会

671
00:20:09,089 --> 00:20:10,430
但我始终坚持简单原则

672
00:20:10,430 --> 00:20:12,589
多年来我为自己取得了相当不错的成绩

673
00:20:12,589 --> 00:20:13,930
难道不是吗

674
00:20:13,930 --> 00:20:15,210
我们必须这样做啊

675
00:20:15,210 --> 00:20:16,670
我们必须保持简单

676
00:20:16,670 --> 00:20:18,549
不要过度复杂化这个游戏

677
00:20:18,549 --> 00:20:20,789
什么会导致你长期获得糟糕回报

678
00:20:20,789 --> 00:20:22,990
好的我们先讲下一个主题

679
00:20:22,990 --> 00:20:24,529
这就是所谓的扫兴者观点

680
00:20:24,529 --> 00:20:25,390
像Palantir这样的股票

681
00:20:25,390 --> 00:20:25,890
Salesforce公司

682
00:20:25,890 --> 00:20:26,369
这类公司

683
00:20:26,369 --> 00:20:27,470
我有多少现金

684
00:20:27,470 --> 00:20:29,450
以及我最可能买入的新股票

685
00:20:29,450 --> 00:20:31,909
我想让大家知道一个免费工作坊

686
00:20:31,909 --> 00:20:34,249
在下方评论区点个赞让我确认是否通知了大家

687
00:20:34,249 --> 00:20:35,148
我之前告诉过你们的

688
00:20:35,148 --> 00:20:36,409
我这么聪明吗

689
00:20:36,409 --> 00:20:40,609
我在视频中之前已经告诉大家关于免费工作坊的事了

690
00:20:40,609 --> 00:20:42,549
没错就在那里

691
00:20:43,150 --> 00:20:44,990
证据证据就像我

692
00:20:44,990 --> 00:20:48,470
我甚至无法获得自己的工作坊行动号召

693
00:20:48,470 --> 00:20:49,809
对的就在那里好了

694
00:20:49,809 --> 00:20:50,230
好的

695
00:20:50,230 --> 00:20:50,849
好的

696
00:20:50,849 --> 00:20:52,159
接下来我们

697
00:20:52,159 --> 00:20:53,298
来谈谈Palantir

698
00:20:53,298 --> 00:20:55,239
Palantir从历史高点

699
00:20:55,239 --> 00:20:58,890
2025年第四季度以来股价下跌约32%

700
00:20:58,890 --> 00:21:01,638
大约从那时起，排队人数下降了约4%

701
00:21:01,638 --> 00:21:03,598
P500下跌1%没错

702
00:21:03,598 --> 00:21:06,538
显然Palantir的股价存在明显问题

703
00:21:06,538 --> 00:21:08,818
这并非业务模式的问题

704
00:21:08,818 --> 00:21:10,469
财务数据表现很好

705
00:21:10,469 --> 00:21:13,628
但公司股价确实存在严重问题

706
00:21:13,628 --> 00:21:17,750
现在Palantir面临诸多复杂问题

707
00:21:17,750 --> 00:21:19,690
这就是为什么股价现在表现不佳

708
00:21:19,690 --> 00:21:24,650
英国NHS首席数据官推动深化Palantir技术部署

709
00:21:24,650 --> 00:21:26,739
尽管引发强烈反对

710
00:21:26,739 --> 00:21:29,279
Palantir面临一些麻烦

711
00:21:29,279 --> 00:21:32,319
情况会先恶化再好转

712
00:21:32,319 --> 00:21:36,680
他们在监控领域面临重大问题

713
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,509
对的，而且

714
00:21:41,049 --> 00:21:43,190
Palantir无论对错

715
00:21:43,190 --> 00:21:45,549
必将被视为监控公敌

716
00:21:45,549 --> 00:21:46,950
在监控领域

717
00:21:46,950 --> 00:21:47,849
在冰区相关事务中

718
00:21:47,849 --> 00:21:49,309
他们正在做的事

719
00:21:49,309 --> 00:21:55,359
国土安全部对美国公民进行监控

720
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,779
目前都宣称是为了更大的公共利益

721
00:21:58,779 --> 00:21:59,740
保护美国人安全

722
00:21:59,740 --> 00:22:02,599
但最终你会玩这个游戏

723
00:22:02,599 --> 00:22:04,869
就是在剥夺自由

724
00:22:04,869 --> 00:22:05,930
例如

725
00:22:05,930 --> 00:22:08,470
回想九一一事件

726
00:22:08,470 --> 00:22:11,180
九一一事件带来了许多变化

727
00:22:11,180 --> 00:22:13,599
我们失去了大量自由

728
00:22:13,599 --> 00:22:16,319
现在每次坐飞机都要接受安检

729
00:22:16,319 --> 00:22:16,660
没错

730
00:22:16,660 --> 00:22:17,480
我们必须这样做

731
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:18,900
我们必须那样做

732
00:22:18,900 --> 00:22:21,859
你的自由在

733
00:22:21,859 --> 00:22:23,180
就比如

734
00:22:23,180 --> 00:22:24,960
我们试图保护美国人安全

735
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,319
你的自由

736
00:22:26,319 --> 00:22:26,799
你知道的

737
00:22:26,799 --> 00:22:27,660
逐渐被侵蚀

738
00:22:27,660 --> 00:22:29,240
隐私权也在被侵蚀

739
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,700
随着岁月流逝

740
00:22:31,700 --> 00:22:35,859
因此有很强论据表明

741
00:22:35,859 --> 00:22:39,049
如今美国人比任何时候都更不自由

742
00:22:39,049 --> 00:22:40,529
你知道的

743
00:22:40,529 --> 00:22:42,529
从长远看

744
00:22:42,529 --> 00:22:43,150
我明白你的意思

745
00:22:43,150 --> 00:22:43,670
比如在

746
00:22:43,670 --> 00:22:44,069
你知道的

747
00:22:44,069 --> 00:22:45,009
就政府监控能力而言

748
00:22:45,009 --> 00:22:46,529
能够全面监控你

749
00:22:46,529 --> 00:22:48,549
并掌握你的一切信息

750
00:22:48,549 --> 00:22:49,449
我的意思是

751
00:22:49,449 --> 00:22:52,848
政府现在了解你所有行踪的最佳时机

752
00:22:52,848 --> 00:22:54,670
了解你所做的一切

753
00:22:54,670 --> 00:22:59,180
因此Palantir完全可以被定位为公敌

754
00:22:59,180 --> 00:22:59,859
第一名

755
00:22:59,859 --> 00:23:01,480
就这个主题而言

756
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:01,900
你看过

757
00:23:01,900 --> 00:23:03,140
叫《国家公敌》的电影吗

758
00:23:03,140 --> 00:23:05,240
这是部很棒的老电影

759
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,400
吉恩·哈克曼和威尔·史密斯

760
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:07,960
呃

761
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,579
我觉得这部电影确实让不少人看清了政府

762
00:23:11,579 --> 00:23:12,940
你知道在追踪

763
00:23:12,940 --> 00:23:15,299
你知道许多不同事物的情况

764
00:23:15,299 --> 00:23:18,700
想想那部电影都快三十年了

765
00:23:18,700 --> 00:23:19,299
在这个时间节点

766
00:23:19,299 --> 00:23:21,449
想象现在他们拥有的技术

767
00:23:21,449 --> 00:23:22,848
所以这是个问题

768
00:23:22,848 --> 00:23:24,868
短期内不会解决

769
00:23:24,868 --> 00:23:26,489
尤其是在选举期间

770
00:23:26,489 --> 00:23:29,618
Palantir在这个问题上可能会更糟

771
00:23:29,618 --> 00:23:31,759
此外这已经开始浮现

772
00:23:31,759 --> 00:23:35,970
人们开始担忧Palantir的未来增长

773
00:23:35,970 --> 00:23:38,659
因为一家叫Anthropic的公司Michael Burry

774
00:23:38,659 --> 00:23:41,298
大家都知道《大空头》里的Michael Berry

775
00:23:41,298 --> 00:23:45,200
Warren的Pointeer很可能在企业市场输给Anthropic

776
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:49,769
Anthropic现在占据了近73%的新企业AI支出

777
00:23:49,769 --> 00:23:52,470
得益于成本效益和可扩展的解决方案

778
00:23:52,470 --> 00:23:54,930
Palantir专注于复杂政府合同

779
00:23:54,930 --> 00:23:57,839
而Anthropic主导企业采用

780
00:23:57,839 --> 00:24:04,440
Anthropic在企业领域的表现和增长令人惊叹

781
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,059
这也是他们增长最快的领域

782
00:24:06,059 --> 00:24:08,630
实际上在政府之外

783
00:24:08,630 --> 00:24:10,990
二月实现了最快用户增长

784
00:24:10,990 --> 00:24:15,189
仅一个月内采用率上升近5个百分点

785
00:24:15,189 --> 00:24:16,788
《大空头》投资者Michael Burry

786
00:24:16,788 --> 00:24:18,888
以预测2008年金融危机闻名

787
00:24:18,888 --> 00:24:20,180
天啊

788
00:24:20,180 --> 00:24:21,539
还有一年

789
00:24:21,539 --> 00:24:22,680
2039年

790
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,319
他仍会提及此事引发对Palantir的担忧

791
00:24:26,319 --> 00:24:28,740
在赞扬Anthropic的快速增长时

792
00:24:28,740 --> 00:24:31,970
这家吸引企业客户的AI初创公司

793
00:24:31,970 --> 00:24:34,710
在X上想关注我吗

794
00:24:34,710 --> 00:24:38,009
我描述栏下方一直有链接

795
00:24:38,009 --> 00:24:38,809
我的X页面

796
00:24:38,809 --> 00:24:42,210
Berry指出Anthropic的增长显著超越

797
00:24:42,210 --> 00:24:45,369
Palantir在营收和市场相关性方面

798
00:24:45,369 --> 00:24:46,250
好的

799
00:24:46,250 --> 00:24:47,410
根据Berry

800
00:24:47,410 --> 00:24:52,069
Anthropic年度持续收入aar激增至九亿美元

801
00:24:52,069 --> 00:24:52,430
呃

802
00:24:52,430 --> 00:24:55,069
仅用数月时间从九亿美元跃升至三十亿美元

803
00:24:55,069 --> 00:24:58,380
得益于其成本效益高且用户友好的AI解决方案

804
00:24:58,380 --> 00:24:58,980
相比之下

805
00:24:58,980 --> 00:25:04,420
Palantir传统上专注于政府合同及高复杂度部署

806
00:25:04,420 --> 00:25:08,440
在二十年间实现五亿美元年度持续收入

807
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:08,960
伯里

808
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:14,740
指出Anthropic目前已占据近73%的新企业AI支出

809
00:25:14,740 --> 00:25:19,859
凸显企业向更直观应用快速转型的趋势

810
00:25:19,859 --> 00:25:23,888
而Palantir以政府为中心的商业模式回报率较低

811
00:25:23,888 --> 00:25:30,339
Anthropic针对企业客户推出可扩展且易于实施的解决方案

812
00:25:30,339 --> 00:25:36,210
这一策略使初创公司主导了市场份额的争夺

813
00:25:36,210 --> 00:25:40,910
关于像Anthropic这样的公司在这些领域的竞争对手

814
00:25:40,910 --> 00:25:44,380
必须被认真对待

815
00:25:44,380 --> 00:25:51,059
但人们对这些公司存在巨大恐惧

816
00:25:51,059 --> 00:25:53,099
如果你不

817
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,000
不是ChatGBT或Anthropic

818
00:25:58,000 --> 00:25:59,779
就像你无关紧要

819
00:25:59,779 --> 00:26:01,099
他们将全部抢走

820
00:26:01,099 --> 00:26:03,609
我并不这么认为

821
00:26:03,609 --> 00:26:06,230
甚至Jensen在NVIDIA也不这么看

822
00:26:07,470 --> 00:26:11,539
我不想称之为天真视角

823
00:26:11,539 --> 00:26:15,579
但这更多源于恐惧

824
00:26:15,579 --> 00:26:18,200
我对这些公司充满期待

825
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,000
他们将席卷一切

826
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:25,859
所以我认为

827
00:26:25,859 --> 00:26:26,880
我的意思是

828
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,000
是否可能有公司采用Anthropic

829
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,950
然后决定这对我们足够好了

830
00:26:31,950 --> 00:26:33,670
我们再也不需要Palantir产品

831
00:26:33,670 --> 00:26:34,710
这确实有可能

832
00:26:34,710 --> 00:26:35,250
没错

833
00:26:35,250 --> 00:26:36,750
必须承担风险

834
00:26:36,750 --> 00:26:37,950
如果你持有Palantir股票

835
00:26:37,950 --> 00:26:39,759
或者想买入Palantir股票

836
00:26:39,759 --> 00:26:40,940
但我们现在处于

837
00:26:40,940 --> 00:26:45,779
局势尚未明朗的长期竞争阶段

838
00:26:45,779 --> 00:26:47,839
人们更多是恐惧而非理性

839
00:26:47,839 --> 00:26:49,909
但我要展示Palantir的核心问题

840
00:26:49,909 --> 00:26:52,348
这就是Palantir股票的主要问题

841
00:26:52,348 --> 00:26:53,980
我现在要展示的内容

842
00:26:53,980 --> 00:26:58,730
Palantir未来几个季度收入增长将放缓

843
00:26:58,730 --> 00:27:01,210
这是最关键的问题

844
00:27:01,210 --> 00:27:03,230
真正制约

845
00:27:03,230 --> 00:27:04,890
Palantir股票表现

846
00:27:04,890 --> 00:27:07,890
最终核心问题

847
00:27:07,890 --> 00:27:13,150
Palantir的收入增长将持续多季度逐季放缓

848
00:27:13,150 --> 00:27:15,069
没错，这是个问题

849
00:27:15,069 --> 00:27:18,349
这就是我去年对Palantir的分析

850
00:27:18,349 --> 00:27:18,630
我说

851
00:27:18,630 --> 00:27:21,619
接下来一段时间这将是一只区间震荡的股票

852
00:27:21,619 --> 00:27:23,759
接下来一段时间这将是一只区间震荡的股票

853
00:27:23,759 --> 00:27:25,079
接下来

854
00:27:25,079 --> 00:27:25,839
你知道的

855
00:27:25,839 --> 00:27:26,920
我去年就跟你们说过

856
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:28,539
我认为这只股票被卡在12区间内

857
00:27:28,539 --> 00:27:29,440
五到两百美元

858
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,869
没错，其中一个原因是估值过高

859
00:27:32,869 --> 00:27:35,999
另一个原因是增长过快

860
00:27:35,999 --> 00:27:39,459
投资者不愿买入营收增速放缓的股票

861
00:27:39,459 --> 00:27:44,279
这会以更负面的方式加剧

862
00:27:44,279 --> 00:27:47,940
像布里这样的投资者会在社交媒体上

863
00:27:47,940 --> 00:27:49,559
谈论Anthropic

864
00:27:49,559 --> 00:27:51,319
会逐渐吃掉Palantir的午餐

865
00:27:51,319 --> 00:27:55,839
没错，人们会看到Palantir的营收增速放缓

866
00:27:55,839 --> 00:27:56,539
没错

867
00:27:56,539 --> 00:27:58,660
增速不再像之前那么快

868
00:27:58,660 --> 00:27:58,940
就像

869
00:27:58,940 --> 00:27:59,099
哦

870
00:27:59,099 --> 00:27:59,779
Palantir曾快速增长

871
00:27:59,779 --> 00:28:01,099
营收增长70%多

872
00:28:01,099 --> 00:28:01,220
现在

873
00:28:01,220 --> 00:28:01,839
他们增速降至60%

874
00:28:01,839 --> 00:28:02,019
现在

875
00:28:02,019 --> 00:28:02,599
增速降到50%

876
00:28:02,599 --> 00:28:02,779
现在

877
00:28:02,779 --> 00:28:03,519
增速降至40%

878
00:28:03,519 --> 00:28:11,349
没错，人们会觉得需要某种

879
00:28:11,349 --> 00:28:11,650
是的

880
00:28:11,650 --> 00:28:12,950
Anthropic正在吃掉他们的午餐

881
00:28:12,950 --> 00:28:14,450
或其它公司正在吃掉他们的午餐

882
00:28:14,450 --> 00:28:17,000
没错，就像你

883
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:17,559
就像你一样

884
00:28:17,559 --> 00:28:20,220
无法永远维持70%的增速

885
00:28:20,220 --> 00:28:21,400
和Anthropic的情况一样

886
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:22,259
增速简直疯狂

887
00:28:22,259 --> 00:28:25,670
现在Anthropic还能保持这种增速吗

888
00:28:25,670 --> 00:28:26,690
五年后

889
00:28:26,690 --> 00:28:28,429
极不可能

890
00:28:28,429 --> 00:28:29,308
十年后

891
00:28:29,308 --> 00:28:30,348
我绝对不信

892
00:28:30,348 --> 00:28:30,989
没错

893
00:28:30,989 --> 00:28:31,509
就像

894
00:28:31,509 --> 00:28:34,190
数字开始真正累积起来

895
00:28:34,190 --> 00:28:38,549
然后很难维持同样的增速

896
00:28:38,549 --> 00:28:40,420
这就是规律

897
00:28:40,420 --> 00:28:43,140
某一刻你的营收增长10000%

898
00:28:43,140 --> 00:28:44,980
下一刻增长1000%

899
00:28:44,980 --> 00:28:48,390
然后增长数百%，最后仅50%

900
00:28:48,390 --> 00:28:49,829
然后它增长了百分之二十

901
00:28:49,829 --> 00:28:50,529
然后如果你运气好

902
00:28:50,529 --> 00:28:56,859
你可以从很久以前开始维持十五到二十五的营收增长率

903
00:28:56,859 --> 00:29:00,299
如果你的公司管理得不好

904
00:29:00,299 --> 00:29:02,460
营收增长率会随着时间下降

905
00:29:02,460 --> 00:29:04,909
然后突然开始出现负增长

906
00:29:04,909 --> 00:29:07,308
最终你会走向破产

907
00:29:07,308 --> 00:29:08,880
你知道的

908
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,579
大多数公司长期的结局很重要

909
00:29:11,579 --> 00:29:13,539
每个人都了解公司的商业周期

910
00:29:13,539 --> 00:29:15,640
大多数公司长期会怎样

911
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:20,410
让我问你破产还是被其他公司收购

912
00:29:21,490 --> 00:29:26,329
最终产品服务业务变得无关紧要

913
00:29:26,329 --> 00:29:29,990
长期来看所有公司都会消亡

914
00:29:29,990 --> 00:29:32,470
我不觉得人们理解这一点

915
00:29:32,470 --> 00:29:35,190
因为很多时候像曾经的大公司

916
00:29:35,190 --> 00:29:36,289
当你还是个小孩子的时候

917
00:29:36,289 --> 00:29:37,250
或者你刚出生的时候

918
00:29:37,250 --> 00:29:38,069
仍然是大公司

919
00:29:38,069 --> 00:29:38,390
对吧

920
00:29:38,390 --> 00:29:38,930
苹果

921
00:29:38,930 --> 00:29:40,019
微软

922
00:29:40,019 --> 00:29:40,859
亚马逊

923
00:29:40,859 --> 00:29:42,839
这些公司终有一天会消亡

924
00:29:42,839 --> 00:29:44,299
可能不在我们这一生

925
00:29:44,299 --> 00:29:46,269
但终有一天会消亡

926
00:29:46,269 --> 00:29:49,009
就像所有公司一样

927
00:29:49,009 --> 00:29:49,869
就像

928
00:29:49,869 --> 00:29:51,490
人类无法永生

929
00:29:51,490 --> 00:29:53,388
公司也无法永存

930
00:29:53,388 --> 00:29:55,489
终有一天都会消亡对吧

931
00:29:55,489 --> 00:29:56,348
它们要么

932
00:29:56,348 --> 00:29:57,449
直接破产

933
00:29:57,449 --> 00:29:59,559
要么被其他公司收购

934
00:29:59,559 --> 00:30:00,619
被其他公司吸收

935
00:30:00,619 --> 00:30:05,059
然后逐渐在另一大公司中变得无关紧要

936
00:30:05,059 --> 00:30:07,380
这就是生命的循环

937
00:30:07,380 --> 00:30:08,579
这就是商业的循环

938
00:30:08,579 --> 00:30:09,180
你知道的

939
00:30:09,180 --> 00:30:10,660
如果你经营得很好

940
00:30:10,660 --> 00:30:13,619
可能能延续三代左右

941
00:30:13,619 --> 00:30:16,509
对了这是非常特别的公司

942
00:30:16,509 --> 00:30:20,559
除此之外就是破产

943
00:30:20,559 --> 00:30:22,839
或被其他公司逐步吸收

944
00:30:22,839 --> 00:30:24,910
对吧所以暂且不论

945
00:30:24,910 --> 00:30:25,130
嗯

946
00:30:25,130 --> 00:30:25,470
你知道的

947
00:30:25,470 --> 00:30:25,789
这

948
00:30:25,789 --> 00:30:27,289
我觉得刚才有点跑题了

949
00:30:27,289 --> 00:30:29,950
但Palantir的问题在于增长放缓

950
00:30:29,950 --> 00:30:32,119
这确实是一件更重要的事情

951
00:30:32,119 --> 00:30:33,779
像Salesforce这样的股票怎么样

952
00:30:33,779 --> 00:30:34,240
我的意思是

953
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,819
看这只股票三年来下跌了三成

954
00:30:36,819 --> 00:30:38,279
它简直没翻身的机会

955
00:30:38,279 --> 00:30:38,640
我的意思是

956
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,400
太惨了看看ServiceNow

957
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,059
ServiceNow跌至97美元

958
00:30:42,059 --> 00:30:44,279
三年来下跌36%

959
00:30:44,279 --> 00:30:47,000
这些股票简直难以置信

960
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,700
看看今天的IGV

961
00:30:48,700 --> 00:30:52,199
IGGV是软件ETF

962
00:30:52,759 --> 00:30:54,659
它已经死了

963
00:30:54,659 --> 00:30:55,838
它们今天又下跌了

964
00:30:55,838 --> 00:30:57,719
而市场上涨了一万亿%

965
00:30:57,719 --> 00:30:59,778
而IGV仍在下跌

966
00:30:59,778 --> 00:31:01,859
如果你无法上涨

967
00:31:01,949 --> 00:31:05,409
在今天这样的行情里

968
00:31:05,409 --> 00:31:07,429
你何时才有机会

969
00:31:07,588 --> 00:31:09,489
纳斯达克上涨近3%

970
00:31:09,489 --> 00:31:09,888
今天

971
00:31:09,888 --> 00:31:10,669
道指也在上涨

972
00:31:10,669 --> 00:31:11,068
我不知道

973
00:31:11,068 --> 00:31:12,249
上涨了1200-1300点

974
00:31:12,249 --> 00:31:13,189
简直荒谬

975
00:31:13,189 --> 00:31:15,960
而IGGV仍下跌1%

976
00:31:16,319 --> 00:31:17,519
我的意思是你完了

977
00:31:17,519 --> 00:31:19,420
你彻底完蛋了

978
00:31:19,420 --> 00:31:21,200
绝对惨不忍睹

979
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:22,559
所以我

980
00:31:22,559 --> 00:31:22,819
V

981
00:31:22,819 --> 00:31:26,099
过去下跌了15%

982
00:31:26,099 --> 00:31:26,680
或者抱歉

983
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:27,799
过去五年上涨了15%

984
00:31:27,799 --> 00:31:28,839
过去五年左右

985
00:31:28,839 --> 00:31:30,079
这简直令人震惊

986
00:31:30,079 --> 00:31:31,839
整个软件ETF

987
00:31:31,839 --> 00:31:32,839
仅上涨15%

988
00:31:32,839 --> 00:31:33,839
过去五年

989
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:36,799
太疯狂了

990
00:31:36,799 --> 00:31:38,660
所以我要告诉你们

991
00:31:38,660 --> 00:31:39,900
这就是股市的情况

992
00:31:39,900 --> 00:31:40,920
有时候确实

993
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:45,609
所以有时市场处于无动于衷的状态

994
00:31:45,609 --> 00:31:49,000
这就是现在这些SaaS股票的情况

995
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,680
无论跌了多少

996
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:52,880
即使股票下跌

997
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,240
从历史新高下跌50%

998
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:54,940
60%

999
00:31:54,940 --> 00:31:55,680
70%

1000
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,190
百分之九十九

1001
00:31:57,190 --> 00:32:00,450
基金经理短期内拒绝持有这些股票

1002
00:32:00,450 --> 00:32:01,579
拒绝持有

1003
00:32:01,579 --> 00:32:03,779
市销率高低无所谓

1004
00:32:03,779 --> 00:32:05,519
市盈率高低无所谓

1005
00:32:05,519 --> 00:32:08,980
短期内DCF模型也不管用

1006
00:32:08,980 --> 00:32:12,019
华尔街拒绝触碰这些股票

1007
00:32:12,019 --> 00:32:15,339
好的，这只是某个时间点

1008
00:32:15,339 --> 00:32:16,339
我们现在就在其中

1009
00:32:16,339 --> 00:32:21,630
有时整个股票或一篮子股票都会这样

1010
00:32:21,630 --> 00:32:23,309
现在正是软件股行情

1011
00:32:23,309 --> 00:32:24,630
他们拒绝了

1012
00:32:24,630 --> 00:32:26,388
根本不可能

1013
00:32:26,388 --> 00:32:27,308
他们会抛售

1014
00:32:27,308 --> 00:32:28,528
但他们也不是

1015
00:32:28,528 --> 00:32:33,500
必须理解软件股正在从一类投资者转手到另一类

1016
00:32:33,500 --> 00:32:34,559
让我深入解释

1017
00:32:34,559 --> 00:32:35,539
因为没人会谈论

1018
00:32:35,539 --> 00:32:37,180
没人会向你解释这类内容

1019
00:32:37,180 --> 00:32:39,779
我们在这两分钟视频里深入讲解

1020
00:32:39,779 --> 00:32:40,920
没人会解释这些

1021
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:41,480
好的

1022
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,059
我后台常开着CNBC

1023
00:32:44,059 --> 00:32:45,740
我在使用彭博终端工作时

1024
00:32:45,740 --> 00:32:47,980
没人会解释我接下来要说的内容

1025
00:32:47,980 --> 00:32:52,940
股票从成长投资者转向价值投资者

1026
00:32:52,940 --> 00:32:53,920
这个过程随时间发生

1027
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:54,519
好的

1028
00:32:54,519 --> 00:32:57,400
软件股正在经历这个时刻

1029
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,960
股价正处于残酷阶段

1030
00:32:59,960 --> 00:33:01,619
接下来发生的是成长

1031
00:33:01,619 --> 00:33:05,359
投资者开始抛售因失去信心

1032
00:33:05,359 --> 00:33:07,470
这些公司不再有高速增长

1033
00:33:07,470 --> 00:33:10,230
这完全得益于ChatGBT

1034
00:33:10,230 --> 00:33:12,309
得益于Anthropic和Claude

1035
00:33:12,309 --> 00:33:13,250
以及这些不同模型

1036
00:33:13,250 --> 00:33:15,289
所以他们认为不

1037
00:33:15,289 --> 00:33:16,410
不会发生

1038
00:33:16,410 --> 00:33:17,329
这些公司

1039
00:33:18,369 --> 00:33:24,299
这些公司无法再高速增长

1040
00:33:24,299 --> 00:33:26,740
他们确信这些公司不再高速增长

1041
00:33:26,740 --> 00:33:29,779
或许营收增长五到十五%

1042
00:33:29,779 --> 00:33:32,339
但不会再有二十%以上的增速

1043
00:33:32,339 --> 00:33:34,710
这就是共识预期

1044
00:33:34,710 --> 00:33:34,970
比如

1045
00:33:34,970 --> 00:33:36,930
无论你谈论Salesforce、ServiceNow

1046
00:33:36,930 --> 00:33:38,890
Adobe及其他全名单

1047
00:33:38,890 --> 00:33:43,769
华尔街认定这些公司永不再有二十%增速

1048
00:33:43,769 --> 00:33:45,269
它们将停滞在五到

1049
00:33:45,269 --> 00:33:48,710
或许十五%直到公司生命周期结束

1050
00:33:48,710 --> 00:33:53,809
所以这意味着成长型投资者像我们不再想要它了

1051
00:33:53,809 --> 00:33:55,089
因此发生了交接

1052
00:33:55,089 --> 00:33:57,990
这时价值投资者开始介入

1053
00:33:57,990 --> 00:33:58,730
所以我自己

1054
00:33:58,730 --> 00:34:00,009
我是成长型投资者的一员

1055
00:34:00,009 --> 00:34:01,349
我也属于价值投资者

1056
00:34:01,349 --> 00:34:02,170
没错

1057
00:34:02,170 --> 00:34:05,930
我的价值投资部分对SaaS股票非常感兴趣

1058
00:34:05,930 --> 00:34:06,250
这也是为什么

1059
00:34:06,250 --> 00:34:08,590
过去几个月我开始大量买入SaaS股票

1060
00:34:08,590 --> 00:34:10,858
没错因为我正在评估其估值

1061
00:34:10,858 --> 00:34:11,378
天啊

1062
00:34:11,378 --> 00:34:13,498
这家公司仍会保持增长

1063
00:34:13,498 --> 00:34:13,818
是的

1064
00:34:13,818 --> 00:34:15,259
也许他们不会以20%的速度增长

1065
00:34:15,259 --> 00:34:16,858
但可能以7%的速度增长

1066
00:34:16,858 --> 00:34:19,679
如果它们的市盈率和利润率处于这种水平

1067
00:34:19,679 --> 00:34:21,398
我们必须在这里买入

1068
00:34:21,398 --> 00:34:23,159
我们得到了一个好机会

1069
00:34:23,159 --> 00:34:26,690
因此价值投资者逐渐接手

1070
00:34:26,690 --> 00:34:29,349
但价值投资者不会立即买入

1071
00:34:29,349 --> 00:34:33,960
价值投资者从未有机会买入这类股票

1072
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,059
价值投资者最近才开始关注这些机会

1073
00:34:37,059 --> 00:34:38,559
就在最近几个月

1074
00:34:38,559 --> 00:34:41,010
Salesforce、Adobe、Intuit

1075
00:34:41,010 --> 00:34:43,900
你知道ServiceNow等等

1076
00:34:43,900 --> 00:34:46,159
他们开始逐步研究这些股票

1077
00:34:46,159 --> 00:34:47,519
这是一个漫长的过程

1078
00:34:47,519 --> 00:34:49,539
其中一部分人会说不

1079
00:34:49,539 --> 00:34:50,300
我仍然不想

1080
00:34:50,300 --> 00:34:51,480
其他人会说

1081
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,188
我要开始买入这些股票了

1082
00:34:53,188 --> 00:34:55,340
他们会越来越多地买入

1083
00:34:55,340 --> 00:34:56,719
这就是交接过程

1084
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:58,880
历史上每只股票都经历过这种情况

1085
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:03,469
即使是像苹果这样的优质股票也是如此

1086
00:35:03,469 --> 00:35:06,039
然后大家

1087
00:35:06,039 --> 00:35:07,039
所有人都确信

1088
00:35:07,039 --> 00:35:10,219
苹果不会再以20%以上的增速增长

1089
00:35:10,219 --> 00:35:11,000
那段时间已经结束

1090
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:11,420
嗯

1091
00:35:11,420 --> 00:35:13,469
那个时期确实结束了

1092
00:35:13,469 --> 00:35:16,090
苹果股价经历了残酷时期

1093
00:35:16,090 --> 00:35:17,489
股价遭到重创

1094
00:35:17,489 --> 00:35:18,590
股价一度低迷

1095
00:35:18,590 --> 00:35:19,570
至少持续了几年

1096
00:35:19,570 --> 00:35:22,010
这发生在

1097
00:35:22,010 --> 00:35:24,889
经历了多年的iPhone周期后

1098
00:35:25,050 --> 00:35:25,730
美国经济的增长

1099
00:35:25,730 --> 00:35:26,769
宣布我们不再投资苹果

1100
00:35:26,769 --> 00:35:28,309
苹果股票一度表现糟糕

1101
00:35:28,309 --> 00:35:32,269
没错，这应该是在iPhone五代周期之后

1102
00:35:32,269 --> 00:35:33,639
如果我没记错的话

1103
00:35:33,639 --> 00:35:36,869
于是价值投资者开始逐步介入

1104
00:35:36,869 --> 00:35:39,570
第一个价值投资者入场

1105
00:35:39,570 --> 00:35:41,789
历史上最著名的价值投资者

1106
00:35:41,789 --> 00:35:44,320
就是沃伦·巴菲特先生

1107
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:48,019
甚至巴菲特大幅买入苹果股票

1108
00:35:48,019 --> 00:35:49,000
天啊

1109
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:50,568
沃伦·巴菲特没错

1110
00:35:50,568 --> 00:35:53,728
但这就是必须经历的过程

1111
00:35:53,728 --> 00:35:56,380
现在我们正处于过渡期

1112
00:35:56,380 --> 00:35:57,380
所有这些股票

1113
00:35:57,380 --> 00:35:59,260
成长型投资者基本已抛售

1114
00:35:59,260 --> 00:36:00,900
他们不再想要这些股票

1115
00:36:00,900 --> 00:36:04,230
现在价值投资者开始关注这些公司

1116
00:36:04,230 --> 00:36:05,269
他们会逐渐

1117
00:36:05,269 --> 00:36:06,309
慢慢试探性买入

1118
00:36:06,309 --> 00:36:07,630
然后开始购买

1119
00:36:07,630 --> 00:36:11,110
我认为这些股票未来五到十年都没问题

1120
00:36:11,110 --> 00:36:13,358
我觉得其中很多都会表现优异

1121
00:36:13,358 --> 00:36:16,278
我认为价值投资者会在许多股票中获利丰厚

1122
00:36:16,278 --> 00:36:18,510
并非全部，有些会被取代

1123
00:36:18,510 --> 00:36:21,550
但多数价值投资者将赚得盆满钵满

1124
00:36:21,550 --> 00:36:25,309
未来五到十年可能远超市场回报

1125
00:36:25,309 --> 00:36:28,659
七到十年后迎来好时光

1126
00:36:28,659 --> 00:36:31,750
但过渡过程颇为艰难

1127
00:36:31,750 --> 00:36:33,190
这是一个艰难的过渡

1128
00:36:33,190 --> 00:36:36,489
但必须理解我在说什么

1129
00:36:36,489 --> 00:36:40,710
当成长型投资者向价值投资者移交时

1130
00:36:40,710 --> 00:36:41,318
没错

1131
00:36:42,188 --> 00:36:42,909
班尼下线

1132
00:36:42,909 --> 00:36:44,369
他上季度提到过这个

1133
00:36:44,369 --> 00:36:46,228
这是公司首个SaaS产品

1134
00:36:46,228 --> 00:36:46,849
末日论

1135
00:36:46,849 --> 00:36:48,509
像Salesforce这样的公司

1136
00:36:48,509 --> 00:36:50,068
以及这一领域的其他公司

1137
00:36:50,068 --> 00:36:51,349
听着兄弟

1138
00:36:51,670 --> 00:36:52,329
他们

1139
00:36:52,329 --> 00:36:53,309
这无关紧要

1140
00:36:53,309 --> 00:36:56,730
真正的故事在于他们要讲述的内容

1141
00:36:56,730 --> 00:36:58,030
比如我们已准备好拥抱AI

1142
00:36:58,030 --> 00:37:00,889
以及各种创新，但市场不买账

1143
00:37:01,050 --> 00:37:06,528
这些公司接下来四季度需交出亮眼数据

1144
00:37:06,528 --> 00:37:08,329
只需持续交出亮眼数据

1145
00:37:08,329 --> 00:37:09,548
持续展示增长

1146
00:37:09,548 --> 00:37:09,969
增长

1147
00:37:09,969 --> 00:37:10,309
增长

1148
00:37:10,309 --> 00:37:10,869
增长增长

1149
00:37:10,869 --> 00:37:12,150
持续超越预期

1150
00:37:12,150 --> 00:37:15,010
最终市场对这些股票的叙事将会改变

1151
00:37:15,010 --> 00:37:15,889
它们不会的

1152
00:37:15,889 --> 00:37:18,019
他们只会放弃这场赌注

1153
00:37:18,260 --> 00:37:18,699
兄弟

1154
00:37:18,699 --> 00:37:20,820
我们得多少次说这些股票已经完了

1155
00:37:20,820 --> 00:37:22,159
我们得多少次重复

1156
00:37:22,159 --> 00:37:22,900
你知道的

1157
00:37:22,900 --> 00:37:24,260
人类主义者会将它们淘汰

1158
00:37:24,260 --> 00:37:26,000
而ChatGPT也会将它们淘汰

1159
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:27,219
啰里吧嗦对吧

1160
00:37:27,219 --> 00:37:29,579
所以我不断用数据来支撑

1161
00:37:29,780 --> 00:37:30,500
这就是全部

1162
00:37:30,500 --> 00:37:31,400
这才是关键

1163
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,179
越来越多的价值投资者会感到安心

1164
00:37:34,179 --> 00:37:35,809
因为价值投资者会说

1165
00:37:35,809 --> 00:37:37,489
我们已经经历了多少年的人工智能周期

1166
00:37:37,489 --> 00:37:39,309
这些公司仍在报出优异的业绩

1167
00:37:39,309 --> 00:37:41,429
我们还要等十年吗

1168
00:37:41,429 --> 00:37:41,730
比如

1169
00:37:41,730 --> 00:37:42,358
你知道的

1170
00:37:42,358 --> 00:37:43,818
这些公司业绩表现亮眼

1171
00:37:43,818 --> 00:37:44,818
季度接季度

1172
00:37:44,818 --> 00:37:47,608
客户持续使用他们的产品

1173
00:37:47,929 --> 00:37:49,048
这就是结果

1174
00:37:49,048 --> 00:37:50,489
所以你知道

1175
00:37:50,489 --> 00:37:52,409
这些公司只需持续保持

1176
00:37:52,409 --> 00:37:53,748
不断交出优异数据

1177
00:37:53,748 --> 00:37:56,059
最终市场叙事将发生转变

1178
00:37:56,059 --> 00:37:57,420
而我们就是纯SaaS股票

1179
00:37:57,420 --> 00:37:58,900
价值投资者会青睐它们

1180
00:37:58,900 --> 00:38:00,039
然后它们会

1181
00:38:00,039 --> 00:38:02,639
他们会定价这些股票

1182
00:38:02,639 --> 00:38:04,300
这些股票价格会如何变化

1183
00:38:04,300 --> 00:38:05,340
至于四帕斯

1184
00:38:05,340 --> 00:38:09,000
再次不会有人在彭博社讨论这个

1185
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:09,519
CNBC

1186
00:38:09,519 --> 00:38:10,340
任何地方

1187
00:38:10,340 --> 00:38:13,900
这些股票的市盈率将如何变化

1188
00:38:13,900 --> 00:38:16,500
它们会从当前水平大幅上涨

1189
00:38:16,500 --> 00:38:18,119
话说回来

1190
00:38:18,119 --> 00:38:21,119
这些公司永远无法达到前瞻市盈率

1191
00:38:21,119 --> 00:38:22,239
两年期前瞻市盈率

1192
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:26,139
和几年前曾达到的十二个月万亿市盈率

1193
00:38:26,139 --> 00:38:27,170
好吧

1194
00:38:27,489 --> 00:38:29,369
所以会有一个平衡点

1195
00:38:29,369 --> 00:38:29,769
现在

1196
00:38:29,769 --> 00:38:30,449
市盈率

1197
00:38:30,449 --> 00:38:30,969
所有这些股票

1198
00:38:30,969 --> 00:38:31,869
已经跌到谷底

1199
00:38:31,869 --> 00:38:34,090
我意思是Salesforce现在大概四倍市盈率

1200
00:38:34,090 --> 00:38:36,320
如果我说十二

1201
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:37,320
十二或十三

1202
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:37,980
大概在那个范围

1203
00:38:37,980 --> 00:38:38,980
这太荒谬了

1204
00:38:38,980 --> 00:38:39,920
像来吧

1205
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,059
真的在前向市盈率

1206
00:38:42,059 --> 00:38:42,400
P的

1207
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:43,219
大概九左右

1208
00:38:43,219 --> 00:38:44,108
现在

1209
00:38:44,108 --> 00:38:45,268
甚至现在服务

1210
00:38:45,268 --> 00:38:48,588
这是一家预计未来几年将增长约20%或略低于20%的公司

1211
00:38:48,588 --> 00:38:48,949
总收入线

1212
00:38:48,949 --> 00:38:50,730
未来几年的净利润线

1213
00:38:50,730 --> 00:38:51,409
甚至表面

1214
00:38:51,409 --> 00:38:52,530
现在正在前向训练

1215
00:38:52,530 --> 00:38:53,250
P的

1216
00:38:53,250 --> 00:38:55,280
像两个两个来吧

1217
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:56,300
像我们太

1218
00:38:56,300 --> 00:38:58,260
我们对这些公司估值太低了

1219
00:38:58,260 --> 00:39:01,420
尤其是这些是人类历史上最好的商业模式之一

1220
00:39:01,420 --> 00:39:03,090
对吧像来吧

1221
00:39:03,650 --> 00:39:07,309
你将获得一个P比率和挑战

1222
00:39:07,309 --> 00:39:09,949
一个将在未来一年发生的P比率

1223
00:39:09,949 --> 00:39:12,170
这将高于当前水平

1224
00:39:12,170 --> 00:39:14,329
但不要期待旧的P像

1225
00:39:14,329 --> 00:39:16,809
Service Now过去曾以17倍前向市盈率交易

1226
00:39:16,809 --> 00:39:18,869
这在过去对Service Now并不疯狂

1227
00:39:18,869 --> 00:39:20,460
未来不要期待这种水平

1228
00:39:20,460 --> 00:39:21,059
然而

1229
00:39:21,059 --> 00:39:23,079
可能会以30倍左右的前向市盈率交易

1230
00:39:23,079 --> 00:39:24,179
以这样的增长率

1231
00:39:24,179 --> 00:39:25,739
确实这是非常可能的

1232
00:39:25,739 --> 00:39:26,940
Salesforce

1233
00:39:26,940 --> 00:39:30,190
Salesforce曾以425倍前向市盈率交易

1234
00:39:30,190 --> 00:39:33,070
我不认为Salesforce会回到253倍前向市盈率

1235
00:39:33,070 --> 00:39:35,570
但应该回到12倍前向市盈率吗

1236
00:39:35,570 --> 00:39:36,679
这太荒谬了

1237
00:39:37,119 --> 00:39:38,380
十八到二十

1238
00:39:38,380 --> 00:39:39,360
相当合理

1239
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,599
这些公司将获得不错的估值提升

1240
00:39:42,599 --> 00:39:44,420
在我看来未来一两年

1241
00:39:44,420 --> 00:39:48,659
但不要期待它们回到旧的估值P比率

1242
00:39:48,659 --> 00:39:49,179
对于P来说

1243
00:39:49,179 --> 00:39:49,679
这类事情

1244
00:39:49,679 --> 00:39:50,059
好的

1245
00:39:50,059 --> 00:39:51,599
我们接下来的话题

1246
00:39:51,599 --> 00:39:52,079
你好

1247
00:39:52,079 --> 00:39:52,760
我是在现金里吗

1248
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,280
然后我最可能买入的新股票是什么

1249
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:56,679
好的

1250
00:39:56,679 --> 00:39:59,300
所以这是我其中一张

1251
00:40:01,559 --> 00:40:02,360
银行账户

1252
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:04,739
那里有八十二万六千美元

1253
00:40:04,739 --> 00:40:08,889
我可能需要把部分资金转入高息储蓄

1254
00:40:08,889 --> 00:40:10,090
所以高息储蓄

1255
00:40:10,090 --> 00:40:12,949
我现在手头不到一百万美元

1256
00:40:13,230 --> 00:40:16,309
所以我有不少钱在闲置

1257
00:40:16,309 --> 00:40:19,230
嗯，我买了大量股票且投入颇多

1258
00:40:20,269 --> 00:40:22,360
但现在已经准备好了

1259
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:22,739
你知道的

1260
00:40:22,739 --> 00:40:25,369
如果市场再跌我也会准备应对

1261
00:40:25,369 --> 00:40:27,030
我处于绝佳位置

1262
00:40:27,030 --> 00:40:27,710
无论如何

1263
00:40:27,710 --> 00:40:31,650
如果市场大幅下跌创历史新低

1264
00:40:31,650 --> 00:40:33,510
这确实是个难解的争论

1265
00:40:33,510 --> 00:40:33,909
现在

1266
00:40:33,909 --> 00:40:36,269
纳斯达克从低点上涨了9%

1267
00:40:36,269 --> 00:40:38,028
那是在几周前

1268
00:40:38,028 --> 00:40:41,148
要让纳斯达克再创历史新低

1269
00:40:41,148 --> 00:40:41,909
这很难做到

1270
00:40:41,909 --> 00:40:42,648
有可能

1271
00:40:42,648 --> 00:40:43,688
但非常困难

1272
00:40:43,688 --> 00:40:47,489
如果真的发生

1273
00:40:47,489 --> 00:40:48,150
我处于有利位置

1274
00:40:48,150 --> 00:40:50,358
我仍有大量资金可以买入

1275
00:40:50,358 --> 00:40:51,759
如果没发生

1276
00:40:51,759 --> 00:40:52,199
没关系

1277
00:40:52,199 --> 00:40:53,659
因为我之前重仓买入股票

1278
00:40:53,659 --> 00:40:55,159
过去一两个月

1279
00:40:55,159 --> 00:40:55,438
对吧

1280
00:40:55,438 --> 00:40:57,619
有些疯狂的买入日我投入了

1281
00:40:57,619 --> 00:40:58,278
你知道的

1282
00:40:58,278 --> 00:40:59,278
大额资金

1283
00:40:59,278 --> 00:41:02,378
比如一天六十万美元或七十万之类

1284
00:41:02,378 --> 00:41:03,938
所以我处于强势地位

1285
00:41:03,938 --> 00:41:05,358
无论接下来如何

1286
00:41:05,358 --> 00:41:06,940
另外要记住

1287
00:41:06,940 --> 00:41:10,980
我不认为自己会低于一百万美元的闲置资金

1288
00:41:10,980 --> 00:41:12,380
除非是重大金融危机

1289
00:41:12,380 --> 00:41:15,219
比如史诗级股市崩盘

1290
00:41:15,219 --> 00:41:16,360
市场暴跌50%

1291
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:17,679
这简直荒谬

1292
00:41:17,679 --> 00:41:18,590
对吧

1293
00:41:18,590 --> 00:41:20,789
我不认为会跌破百万

1294
00:41:20,789 --> 00:41:22,050
展望未来

1295
00:41:22,050 --> 00:41:24,130
我将始终保持超百万

1296
00:41:24,130 --> 00:41:25,929
只是闲置在那里

1297
00:41:25,929 --> 00:41:26,690
你知道的

1298
00:41:26,690 --> 00:41:27,889
能让你夜夜好眠

1299
00:41:27,889 --> 00:41:30,469
没错，这就是我的现金储备现状

1300
00:41:30,469 --> 00:41:31,510
我部署了很多

1301
00:41:31,510 --> 00:41:32,489
但我还有很多

1302
00:41:32,489 --> 00:41:34,519
以防万一，我们来看看会发生什么吧

1303
00:41:34,519 --> 00:41:35,860
我从不对此太过兴奋

1304
00:41:35,860 --> 00:41:39,429
无论短期股市接下来会上演什么

1305
00:41:39,429 --> 00:41:39,869
呃

1306
00:41:39,869 --> 00:41:40,809
新股票是什么

1307
00:41:40,809 --> 00:41:43,969
我昨晚很可能在频道买入了

1308
00:41:43,969 --> 00:41:46,320
我两小时前刚发布了这个视频

1309
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,820
十大百元内可购股票

1310
00:41:49,820 --> 00:41:51,840
你们可能想看看这个

1311
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,579
目前已有约六万两千人观看

1312
00:41:54,579 --> 00:41:56,199
这绝对是个好视频

1313
00:41:56,199 --> 00:42:00,119
我在视频中还列出了价格目标

1314
00:42:00,119 --> 00:42:00,760
牛市情况

1315
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:01,460
熊市情况

1316
00:42:01,460 --> 00:42:05,659
这些股票未来三年的基准预测

1317
00:42:05,659 --> 00:42:07,659
所以可能有一个视频

1318
00:42:07,659 --> 00:42:09,139
你想去看看吗

1319
00:42:09,139 --> 00:42:09,760
但呃

1320
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:09,960
是的

1321
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:11,420
这个视频昨晚已发布在频道

1322
00:42:11,420 --> 00:42:12,239
至于股票

1323
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:13,739
我最可能买入的

1324
00:42:13,739 --> 00:42:14,139
这个

1325
00:42:14,139 --> 00:42:15,300
可能会让一些人惊讶

1326
00:42:15,300 --> 00:42:16,599
宝洁公司

1327
00:42:16,599 --> 00:42:17,820
宝洁公司

1328
00:42:17,820 --> 00:42:19,420
股价五年来下跌约64%

1329
00:42:19,420 --> 00:42:20,300
过去五年

1330
00:42:20,300 --> 00:42:21,568
业务非常简单

1331
00:42:21,568 --> 00:42:23,929
他们卖蜡烛、香皂和润肤霜

1332
00:42:23,929 --> 00:42:25,048
以及类似产品

1333
00:42:25,048 --> 00:42:26,579
十七号

1334
00:42:27,159 --> 00:42:28,719
这是我最可能买入的

1335
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:30,639
如果我要买入新股

1336
00:42:30,639 --> 00:42:30,960
请注意

1337
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:32,800
我现在在加仓现有仓位

1338
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:34,300
但如果我要新开仓位

1339
00:42:34,300 --> 00:42:39,369
其实我最爱福特P股，这只股票股息率约7%

1340
00:42:39,369 --> 00:42:40,429
还有

1341
00:42:40,429 --> 00:42:41,690
极具盈利能力的业务

1342
00:42:42,889 --> 00:42:43,530
我喜欢这个啊

1343
00:42:43,530 --> 00:42:44,489
我喜欢这个

1344
00:42:44,489 --> 00:42:46,878
就价格而言你知道现在

1345
00:42:46,878 --> 00:42:47,478
当前价格是

1346
00:42:47,478 --> 00:42:47,679
我的意思是

1347
00:42:47,679 --> 00:42:49,079
如果今天股价是40美元

1348
00:42:49,079 --> 00:42:49,278
不

1349
00:42:49,278 --> 00:42:50,699
以17美元我不会感兴趣

1350
00:42:50,699 --> 00:42:51,998
这完全是另一种情况

1351
00:42:51,998 --> 00:42:52,550
没错

1352
00:42:52,550 --> 00:42:54,929
另一只我非常感兴趣的股票是RH

1353
00:42:54,929 --> 00:42:58,150
120美元的股票已经下跌了80%

1354
00:42:58,150 --> 00:42:58,889
过去五年

1355
00:42:58,889 --> 00:42:59,829
简直惨不忍睹

1356
00:42:59,829 --> 00:43:01,130
过去五年的股票表现

1357
00:43:01,130 --> 00:43:01,829
没错

1358
00:43:01,829 --> 00:43:03,809
但我要密切关注这只

1359
00:43:03,809 --> 00:43:05,070
这只对我来说很棘手

1360
00:43:05,070 --> 00:43:09,039
因为在短期内很难对房地产高点看涨

1361
00:43:09,039 --> 00:43:09,719
但请记住

1362
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:11,179
这些股票总会见底

1363
00:43:11,179 --> 00:43:15,409
它们总会在之前就见底

1364
00:43:15,409 --> 00:43:17,530
远远在之前

1365
00:43:17,530 --> 00:43:18,409
呃

1366
00:43:18,409 --> 00:43:21,010
市场本身或者你知道的像

1367
00:43:21,010 --> 00:43:24,889
基本上在高端房地产市场复苏前

1368
00:43:24,889 --> 00:43:27,789
像RH那时就已经大幅上涨了

1369
00:43:27,789 --> 00:43:29,519
所以我不确定啊

1370
00:43:29,519 --> 00:43:31,559
这正是我现在在考虑的

1371
00:43:31,559 --> 00:43:34,219
你要明白我们即将进入财报季

1372
00:43:34,219 --> 00:43:36,480
财报季将在几天后开始

1373
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:41,800
市场将从地缘政治、通胀和美联储政策中转变

1374
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:43,440
但这并不意味着完全不会被讨论

1375
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:45,909
但大约一周后会逐渐转变

1376
00:43:45,909 --> 00:43:47,469
从现在到财报季

1377
00:43:47,469 --> 00:43:49,929
然后所有人都会在视频中讨论数据

1378
00:43:49,929 --> 00:43:50,849
营收数据

1379
00:43:50,849 --> 00:43:52,010
AMD的数据

1380
00:43:52,010 --> 00:43:53,110
我超爱这些

1381
00:43:53,110 --> 00:43:54,750
现在我喜欢讨论公司

1382
00:43:54,750 --> 00:43:55,389
请记住之前发生的事情

1383
00:43:55,389 --> 00:43:56,269
上一季财报

1384
00:43:56,269 --> 00:43:57,710
当时充满恐惧

1385
00:43:57,710 --> 00:43:58,309
因为关税问题

1386
00:43:58,309 --> 00:43:59,829
公司入场表示

1387
00:43:59,829 --> 00:44:03,889
情况没你们说的那么可怕，市场

1388
00:44:03,889 --> 00:44:04,668
开始上涨

1389
00:44:04,668 --> 00:44:07,608
甚至比那更强劲，今年可能如此

1390
00:44:07,608 --> 00:44:08,628
别太高估

1391
00:44:08,628 --> 00:44:10,068
但这种情况可能发生

1392
00:44:10,068 --> 00:44:10,889
大家一片恐慌

1393
00:44:10,889 --> 00:44:12,768
然后看到公司数据

1394
00:44:12,768 --> 00:44:13,248
然后是

1395
00:44:13,248 --> 00:44:13,648
嗯

1396
00:44:13,648 --> 00:44:14,489
一切看起来不错

1397
00:44:14,489 --> 00:44:14,969
然后是

1398
00:44:14,969 --> 00:44:15,369
哦

1399
00:44:15,369 --> 00:44:17,268
看来我们对此有点过度了

1400
00:44:17,268 --> 00:44:18,139
好的

1401
00:44:18,420 --> 00:44:19,139
我们拭目以待

1402
00:44:19,139 --> 00:44:20,599
我们看看这里会发生什么

1403
00:44:20,599 --> 00:44:21,219
呃

1404
00:44:21,219 --> 00:44:21,659
不过确实

1405
00:44:21,659 --> 00:44:22,840
财报季即将拉开帷幕

1406
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:23,639
所以做好准备吧

1407
00:44:23,639 --> 00:44:23,820
各位

1408
00:44:23,820 --> 00:44:26,119
接下来将迎来重大时刻

1409
00:44:26,119 --> 00:44:26,460
好的

1410
00:44:26,460 --> 00:44:27,840
感谢大家一如既往地加入我

1411
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,079
如果你想在X平台或Instagram上关注我

1412
00:44:30,079 --> 00:44:32,489
链接已在下方描述区域

1413
00:44:32,489 --> 00:44:35,530
再次提醒那个免费工作坊就在下方置顶评论

1414
00:44:35,530 --> 00:44:38,159
如何在每个阶段管理你的投资组合

1415
00:44:38,159 --> 00:44:41,260
构建规模并保护投资组合以避免错误

1416
00:44:41,260 --> 00:44:43,778
这将摧毁你的长期回报

1417
00:44:43,778 --> 00:44:45,420
祝大家一切顺利，度过美好一天

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