特斯拉满血复活?！真正的大机会来了,所有人做好准备!丨深挖马斯克的两大秘密底牌-AI5 & Terafab ,散户上车前必看！TSLA#trading #投資

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嗨朋友们

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欢迎回到ruby投资笔记

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我是你们的老朋友ruby

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那最近的美股行情呢很刺激

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走出了一波V型反转

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有不少的公司已经收复失地

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但是唯有特斯拉和微软还没有完全跟上

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所以今天这期视频

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我们就聊一个比较有争议的话题

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特斯拉的突然暴涨到底是不是复活

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以及如果现在再上车

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还有没有机会拿到那种让人眼红的超额收益呢

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这一期呢我会尽量讲的更底层一点

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先从交付数据带来的断骨式振动讲起

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再往下聊

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AI5芯片可能带来的性能跃迁

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最后呢我们再一起拆一拆

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马斯克在德州那个颇为生病的单人吩咐工厂

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那内容会稍微多一点

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也比较硬核

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如果你最近在考虑要不要上车

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特斯拉一定要看完我的这期视频哦

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先说一个比较扎心的事实

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4月初呢

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特斯拉是公布了他一季度的交付数据

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市场情绪当时是立刻崩盘

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因为它生产了40.8万辆车

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但只交付了35.8万辆

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这中间多出来的5万辆并没有消失

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而是实打实的堆在了他的资产负债表里

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这也就意味着

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它一季度的财报很可能会不及市场预期

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于是你会看到

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当时几乎所有的自媒体都在讲同一套叙事需求

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见顶

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神话破灭

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而股价的反馈也很直接

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特斯拉的股价一路往下砸

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眼看就要跌入深渊

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就在这时候

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让人意想不到的事情发生了

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时间来到4月15号

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市场突然换了一套叙事逻辑

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当外界还在反复拆解model free的销量结构的时候

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真正的资金开始盯上另一条信息

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也就是AI5芯片的流片成功

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结果呢也很干脆

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特斯拉的股价逆势拉升8%

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但很多人对于流片这个词不太熟

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你可以把它理解成芯片设计

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就像是画图纸

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而流片就是第一次按图纸把真实的房子造出来

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那这里呢有两个关键点

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第一这是从设计走向量产最关键的一步

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第二一旦流片成功

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就说明它的核心硬件路径已经打通

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性能基本达标

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那这次马斯克也亲自出来发帖点赞

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其实就传达了一个很明确的信号

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AI5的底层能力已经达到了他的预期

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这也意味着

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特斯拉正式拿到了一张进入物理世界

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算力竞争的入场券

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那另一个细节也很关键

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特斯拉在公开表态里面

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专门提到了台积电和三星

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这说明

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特斯拉在顶级代工资源上的优先级是非常高的

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同时也侧面暗示了

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AI5很可能会上更先进的制程切换

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更极致的性能和能效比

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那这个时候想必大家最关心的一点一定是

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AI5什么时候能真正落地呢

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按照目前的说法

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AI5预计是在2027年进入大规模的量产

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那很多人可能会觉得奇怪啊

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既然现在的流片已经成功了

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为什么还要等这么久呢

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这里呢有一个很现实的问题

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就是产业周期从流片到车规级的验证

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再到供应链的配套

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通常是需要1.5到两年

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那这个时间点也很微妙

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如果你把时间轴拉起

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你会发现

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AI5预计在2027年进入大批量的生产

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这刚好对应了robot kc和下一代open amas

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机器人的量产窗口

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也就是说AI5它绝不是一颗孤立的芯片

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它是特斯拉为未来3年提前埋下的

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底层算力伏笔

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那从投资的角度来看

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AI5流片的成功是告诉投资人特斯拉的大脑

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也就是它的算力核心

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已经进化到了可以支撑L4

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L5自动驾驶和机器人的地步

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有了这个前提

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投资人才敢用AI公司的估值去衡量

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现代的特斯拉

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带动特斯拉的股价突破传统车企的天花板

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那聊到这里

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大家可能会问了

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不就是一个芯片流片成功吗

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至于让市场逻辑发生如此剧烈的反转吗

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说实话

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如果AI5只是为了让自动驾驶算的快一点

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那确实不至于

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但如果你深挖下去

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你会发现这次流片成功

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它背后隐藏着一个极其恐怖的财务逻辑

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特斯拉正在从追赶算跌的买家

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变成定义算力成本的庄家

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但很多投资者还没有意识到

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特斯拉其实已经厌倦了

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在硬件销量上和对手卷毛利

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他现在真正的野心是利用这种垂直整合能力

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把竞争对手挡在门外

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那么除了这个芯片

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特斯拉又做出了哪些改变

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能救活自己呢

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而支撑它未来翻倍增长的硬核护城河

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到底在哪呢

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接下来我们就来详细拆解这两个问题

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首先2026年

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真正决定特斯拉上线的不是他卖了多少辆车

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而是两件更底层的东西

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AI5的极致效能以及TERRE发布的制造闭环

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先看第一个AI5芯片

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现在整个行业都在抢英伟达的高端芯片

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包括谷歌的TPU芯片对吧

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但是特斯拉的路径完全不一样

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他不抢他自己做

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而它的芯片的卖点不在于算力有多强

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而在于效率有多高

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英伟达的芯片更像是通用型的工具

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什么都能做

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但这特斯拉的AI5是专门为FSD

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自动驾驶和擎天柱机器人这种特定场景定制的

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说直白一点

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而是一把专门开某一扇门的定制钥匙

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目前市场的一个普遍判断是

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AI5在推理能力上会非常激进

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但是成本却可能压到英伟达同级方案

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的一个极低水平

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甚至是接近1/10

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那这个差距有多关键呢

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直接关系到它的商业模式能不能成立

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你试想一下

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如果未来无人驾驶出租车要规模化的铺快

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不可能

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每一辆车上都堆一个几万美元的算力方案

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那商业模式它是跑不通的

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他赚不了多少钱

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而AI5

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本质上就是为特斯拉解决

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算力成本这个核心瓶颈的工具

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有了AI5

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他的无人驾驶出租车规模化的铺开就不再是梦

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那聊到这里

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你可能会觉得

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马斯克只是在实验室搞定了一颗芯片

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但是实际上真正的重头戏是

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特斯拉在德州正式推进的terry fbo芯片厂

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也就是我们常说的T工厂

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那很多朋友可能会觉得

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不就是多建了一个工厂吗

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有什么好大惊小怪的

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其实不然

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这个terry fbble和之前的GIGFA克

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terry有着本质的区别

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如果说gig fag

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泰瑞超级工厂解决的是制造汽车的问题

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那terry fb解决的就是制造大脑的问题

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这件事的背后隐藏着两个极其硬核的逻辑

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咱们掰开了细讲

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首先在汽车行业

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绝大多数公司的车载芯片还停留在28NM

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甚至是40NM的阶段

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究其原因呢是因为车规级芯片第一优先级是稳

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而不是快

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但是马斯克的思路完全不同

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既然我们要搞的是自动驾驶和人形机器人

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这也要求在边缘侧

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就是车端和机器人端进行改练的实时推理

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这就好比你要在尖尖上跳舞

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算力密度极大

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同时功耗还要极低

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所以ti发布的起点极其激进

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他直接瞄准了2NM的最先进节点

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这就意味着

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特斯拉不再满足于用现成的通用的汽车架构

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而是要用造手机CPU

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造顶级服务器芯片的精度

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来重新定义他汽车的硬件底座

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这种职场上的代差就是物理意义上的降级打击

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其次有一个很多人都忽略的重点

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就是terry发布不只是特斯拉的芯片

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它是特斯拉

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是space x甚至是XAI共同的算力母体

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大家想一下

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space x每天面对的是什么

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是真空

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是极端的温差

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还有宇宙中无处不在的强辐射

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所以space x设计的芯片

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必须具备极强的抗辐射加固和环境冗余能力

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这就是转折的观点

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当这种航天级的材料技术和设计逻辑

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被下放到台式发布生产的AI5和AI6

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芯片上时候

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特斯拉的硬件将拥有恐怖的可靠性

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不管是德州的暴晒

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挪威的严寒

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还是未来复杂的电子干扰环境

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这颗芯片都能稳如泰山

216
00:07:38,220 --> 00:07:39,500
这种全地形

217
00:07:39,500 --> 00:07:41,019
全气候的稳定性

218
00:07:41,019 --> 00:07:44,199
才是ROBTC大规模商业化运营的前提

219
00:07:44,199 --> 00:07:45,759
那把这两点连起来看

220
00:07:45,759 --> 00:07:47,699
你就能理解马斯克的野心了

221
00:07:47,699 --> 00:07:50,699
他不想当英伟达或者台积电的尊贵客户

222
00:07:50,699 --> 00:07:52,660
他不想再当那个VVIP

223
00:07:52,660 --> 00:07:54,879
他要尝试的是把芯片设计

224
00:07:54,879 --> 00:07:56,500
光刻制造封测集成

225
00:07:56,500 --> 00:07:59,209
这整个闭环全部握在自己的手里

226
00:07:59,209 --> 00:08:01,889
这种垂直集成4.0的逻辑意味着

227
00:08:01,889 --> 00:08:03,970
特斯拉正在从一家制造业公司

228
00:08:03,970 --> 00:08:06,439
蜕变成一个拥有科技主权的实体

229
00:08:06,439 --> 00:08:08,720
他不再受制于全球供应链的波动

230
00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,100
也不再需要看别人的脸色拿货

231
00:08:11,100 --> 00:08:12,980
这种系统级的整合能力

232
00:08:12,980 --> 00:08:13,860
才是其他车企

233
00:08:13,860 --> 00:08:17,779
哪怕把model three拆1万遍也学不会的真功夫

234
00:08:19,399 --> 00:08:22,399
那现在呢我们再来讲一个大家最关心的问题

235
00:08:22,399 --> 00:08:24,649
就是现在的特斯拉该怎么定价

236
00:08:24,649 --> 00:08:25,810
不知道大家记不记得

237
00:08:25,810 --> 00:08:27,730
我之前有一期视频里面讲过

238
00:08:27,730 --> 00:08:30,100
一个黄仁勋的五层蛋糕AI框架

239
00:08:30,100 --> 00:08:33,240
那这个框架呢其实可以直接套在特斯拉身上

240
00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,558
这样大家会对特斯拉的发展路径看得更清楚

241
00:08:36,558 --> 00:08:39,078
首先第一层最底层的还是硬件

242
00:08:39,078 --> 00:08:40,029
就是卖车

243
00:08:40,029 --> 00:08:42,769
这一层从现在来说确实比较吃力

244
00:08:42,769 --> 00:08:43,990
它的毛利在压缩

245
00:08:43,990 --> 00:08:45,549
这是市场情绪最敏感

246
00:08:45,549 --> 00:08:47,149
也是争议最大的部分

247
00:08:47,149 --> 00:08:49,070
其次往上一层的是芯片

248
00:08:49,070 --> 00:08:51,000
也就是今天的主角AI5

249
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,360
这一层的意义其实是进入门槛

250
00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:54,559
你要做自动驾驶

251
00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,039
做机器人没有自己的底层算力方案

252
00:08:57,039 --> 00:08:59,000
基本上就没有入场的价格

253
00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:00,559
那再往上呢是软件

254
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:02,870
也就是FSD的电源模式

255
00:09:02,870 --> 00:09:06,149
随着FSD在北美和欧洲的持续推进

256
00:09:06,149 --> 00:09:07,549
一旦这个业务跑通

257
00:09:07,549 --> 00:09:10,970
那特斯拉从这个业务上得到的基本上是纯利润

258
00:09:10,970 --> 00:09:13,789
盈利结构和卖车完全不是一个维度

259
00:09:13,789 --> 00:09:15,529
那最后一层呢是平台

260
00:09:15,529 --> 00:09:17,149
也就是它的SABCBO

261
00:09:17,149 --> 00:09:19,470
如果说前面几层还在卖产品

262
00:09:19,470 --> 00:09:21,460
那这一层就变成了做生态

263
00:09:21,460 --> 00:09:23,700
各项是特斯拉版本的出行网络

264
00:09:23,700 --> 00:09:24,679
那问题来了

265
00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,919
真正的超额收益是从哪一层里面跑出来的呢

266
00:09:27,919 --> 00:09:28,940
答案很明确

267
00:09:28,940 --> 00:09:29,990
他不是第一层

268
00:09:29,990 --> 00:09:32,509
如果你只是把特斯拉当成一家车企

269
00:09:32,509 --> 00:09:35,009
那它现在的估值看起来确实贵的离谱

270
00:09:35,009 --> 00:09:36,578
甚至可以说不合理

271
00:09:36,578 --> 00:09:38,139
但如果你换一个视角

272
00:09:38,139 --> 00:09:41,418
把它当成一个把算力部署到现实世界的公司

273
00:09:41,418 --> 00:09:44,019
那整个估值逻辑就会完全重构

274
00:09:44,019 --> 00:09:44,740
这个阶段

275
00:09:44,740 --> 00:09:47,659
他其实很像是2010年前后的亚马逊

276
00:09:47,659 --> 00:09:50,659
那个时候市场盯着的还是卖书赚不赚钱

277
00:09:50,659 --> 00:09:52,299
但是真正拉开差距的是

278
00:09:52,299 --> 00:09:55,509
它背后正在成型的算力中心和云计算能力

279
00:09:55,509 --> 00:09:56,669
那同样的逻辑

280
00:09:56,669 --> 00:09:59,049
如果我们把时间拉到2026年底

281
00:09:59,049 --> 00:09:59,970
再回头看

282
00:09:59,970 --> 00:10:02,179
可能会发现一个很有意思的变化

283
00:10:02,179 --> 00:10:03,820
市场关注的核心指标

284
00:10:03,820 --> 00:10:06,000
已经不再是他交付了多少辆车

285
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:07,500
而是有多少的算力

286
00:10:07,500 --> 00:10:09,929
在真实的世界里被部署和利用

287
00:10:09,929 --> 00:10:11,429
那如果这个叙事成立

288
00:10:11,429 --> 00:10:12,450
现在这个位置

289
00:10:12,450 --> 00:10:15,089
更像是一个被情绪错杀的定价区间

290
00:10:15,089 --> 00:10:17,269
也就是很多人常说的黄金坑

291
00:10:17,269 --> 00:10:19,089
那这波特斯拉反弹后呢

292
00:10:19,089 --> 00:10:21,208
有一个关键时间点需要大家注意

293
00:10:21,208 --> 00:10:23,009
那就是下周二

294
00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,899
4月22号特斯拉就有公布他的财报了

295
00:10:27,899 --> 00:10:30,159
那这份财报里真正有价值的是

296
00:10:30,159 --> 00:10:32,320
我接下来要讲的这几个核心指标

297
00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:33,690
大家一定要记住

298
00:10:33,690 --> 00:10:36,500
先说第一个自由现金流FCF

299
00:10:36,500 --> 00:10:37,820
但前面我们提到过

300
00:10:37,820 --> 00:10:40,100
它一季度库存多了接近5万辆

301
00:10:40,100 --> 00:10:42,990
那这背后对应的是一大块被锁住的现金

302
00:10:42,990 --> 00:10:46,210
所以这次财报如果他的自由现金流出现转负

303
00:10:46,210 --> 00:10:49,049
那短期的股价大概率还会有一波回踩

304
00:10:49,049 --> 00:10:50,870
这对于短线来说是风险

305
00:10:50,870 --> 00:10:52,490
但对于长线资金来说

306
00:10:52,490 --> 00:10:54,850
反而可能是一个更好的进场窗口

307
00:10:54,850 --> 00:10:58,059
那第二个要看的就是他递延收入的释放节奏

308
00:10:58,059 --> 00:10:59,740
F的SD这一块呢

309
00:10:59,740 --> 00:11:02,289
现在有大量的试用和订阅正在推进

310
00:11:02,289 --> 00:11:04,009
但是其中一部分的收入

311
00:11:04,009 --> 00:11:06,830
其实还没有完全体现在它的利润表里

312
00:11:06,830 --> 00:11:08,309
什么时候开始确认

313
00:11:08,309 --> 00:11:09,700
确认的节奏有多快

314
00:11:09,700 --> 00:11:12,759
直接关系到他未来几个季度的利润修复速度

315
00:11:12,759 --> 00:11:15,139
那第三个也是很多人容易忽略的

316
00:11:15,139 --> 00:11:17,068
就是马斯列的说话口径

317
00:11:17,068 --> 00:11:19,828
不要只听他讲无人出租车的发布时间

318
00:11:19,828 --> 00:11:22,080
这种更多的是叙事层面的东西

319
00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:25,340
真正要听的是他对无人出租车进展的描述

320
00:11:25,340 --> 00:11:26,740
比如说投产的时间

321
00:11:26,740 --> 00:11:27,600
出片的节奏

322
00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,149
量产的规划等等

323
00:11:29,149 --> 00:11:32,629
因为这条线才是中长期逻辑能不能兑现的关键

324
00:11:32,629 --> 00:11:33,909
时间轴

325
00:11:35,740 --> 00:11:39,039
那聊完了AI5和terry foo这些偏底层

326
00:11:39,039 --> 00:11:40,240
偏长期的逻辑

327
00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:43,000
最后我们还是要回到一个更现实的问题

328
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,769
现在这段行情具体该怎么操作呢

329
00:11:45,769 --> 00:11:48,929
那长期呢我依然看好特斯拉这套AI股价

330
00:11:48,929 --> 00:11:52,340
但是交易这件事情他最后还是要回到盘面上

331
00:11:52,340 --> 00:11:55,460
目前市场给出的信号其实还是比较清晰的

332
00:11:55,460 --> 00:11:57,519
我们先来说一下它的波动区间吧

333
00:11:57,519 --> 00:12:00,240
因为特斯拉大家都知道波段之王嘛

334
00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:01,860
那这一轮的复活行情

335
00:12:01,860 --> 00:12:02,879
目前的基础波段

336
00:12:02,879 --> 00:12:05,940
大概就是在420~465美元之间

337
00:12:05,940 --> 00:12:07,539
上方465美元

338
00:12:07,539 --> 00:12:09,700
这一带是一个非常关键的压力位

339
00:12:09,700 --> 00:12:12,500
如果后面的股价能够放量突破465

340
00:12:12,500 --> 00:12:13,389
并且站稳

341
00:12:13,389 --> 00:12:14,750
那基本可以确认它

342
00:12:14,750 --> 00:12:17,340
行情进入下一轮更大级别的上升波浪

343
00:12:17,340 --> 00:12:18,440
到那个阶段呢

344
00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:19,539
市场的整体预期

345
00:12:19,539 --> 00:12:22,919
包括分析师评级可能都会发生新一轮的重估

346
00:12:22,919 --> 00:12:24,669
那就是另外一个版本了

347
00:12:24,669 --> 00:12:26,389
但在突破发生之前呢

348
00:12:26,389 --> 00:12:28,580
我们要面对的是这个区间本身

349
00:12:28,580 --> 00:12:31,580
现在的股价正在往这个区间上沿去冲

350
00:12:31,580 --> 00:12:33,360
但是这里我必须要提醒一句

351
00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,460
越经济420~465

352
00:12:35,460 --> 00:12:36,970
这个位置越要谨慎

353
00:12:36,970 --> 00:12:38,129
重点看什么呢

354
00:12:38,129 --> 00:12:39,049
看细节

355
00:12:39,049 --> 00:12:40,570
第一个是放量滞涨

356
00:12:40,570 --> 00:12:42,129
也就是成交量明显放大

357
00:12:42,129 --> 00:12:43,450
但是价格却涨不动

358
00:12:43,450 --> 00:12:45,049
像顶在天花板下面

359
00:12:45,049 --> 00:12:48,409
这种情况往往就意味着有资金在高位开始兑现

360
00:12:48,409 --> 00:12:50,409
第二个呢就是形态上的转弱

361
00:12:50,409 --> 00:12:52,450
比如说它高位出现了长上影线

362
00:12:52,450 --> 00:12:54,789
或者是一些比较明显的建立结构

363
00:12:54,789 --> 00:12:56,649
那这些信号如果叠加出现

364
00:12:56,649 --> 00:12:57,870
就需要提高警惕

365
00:12:57,870 --> 00:13:00,690
简单来讲就是那种有量没价的状态

366
00:13:00,690 --> 00:13:02,269
它本质上是资金在出

367
00:13:02,269 --> 00:13:03,318
而不是在进

368
00:13:03,318 --> 00:13:05,619
所以操作上其实逻辑并不复杂

369
00:13:05,619 --> 00:13:07,198
如果你是做短线的

370
00:13:07,198 --> 00:13:08,599
接近四百六十五一带

371
00:13:08,599 --> 00:13:09,418
如果出目动

372
00:13:09,418 --> 00:13:10,479
该止盈就止盈

373
00:13:10,479 --> 00:13:11,409
不要恋战

374
00:13:11,409 --> 00:13:13,009
那如果你是做长线的

375
00:13:13,009 --> 00:13:15,450
那就更应该关注回调时候的承接

376
00:13:15,450 --> 00:13:17,250
比如说420美元附近

377
00:13:17,250 --> 00:13:20,409
或者是更关键的200日均线能不能稳住

378
00:13:20,409 --> 00:13:21,450
那总结一下

379
00:13:21,450 --> 00:13:24,250
就是这一段的行情波段其实已经给出来了

380
00:13:24,250 --> 00:13:25,309
机会也在这里

381
00:13:25,309 --> 00:13:28,090
但越是这种位置越考验你的执行力

382
00:13:28,090 --> 00:13:30,669
那盘中的细节变化一定要自己盯紧

383
00:13:30,669 --> 00:13:33,409
尤其是不要在情绪最亢奋的时候去追高

384
00:13:33,409 --> 00:13:35,600
这种时候是很容易被套好

385
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,679
那我们本期的视频就到这里结束了

386
00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:39,720
如果你觉得这套对于特斯拉的分析

387
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:40,840
对你有帮助的话

388
00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,639
可以点赞留言订阅频道

389
00:13:42,639 --> 00:13:44,919
让更多的人看到我们的这期视频

390
00:13:44,919 --> 00:13:46,840
那最后呢我也想听听你的看法

391
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:49,659
你是怎么看待特斯拉的AI第五代芯片

392
00:13:49,659 --> 00:13:52,919
或者是你觉得特斯拉这条2NM的芯片路线

393
00:13:52,919 --> 00:13:54,620
到底有没有机会跑出来呢

394
00:13:54,620 --> 00:13:56,850
欢迎在评论区发表您的看法

395
00:13:56,850 --> 00:13:57,610
我是朱比

396
00:13:57,610 --> 00:13:58,429
咱们一起一会

397
00:13:58,429 --> 00:13:59,559
下期再见拜

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