急流勇退真大智慧

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刚才帮着会员兄弟分析恒力压的时候啊

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我看了一下过去45年

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中国的各路毛的走势简直是太惨了

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打两折都是好的呀

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兄弟们

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你看一下艾美克

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看一下通测

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看一下酱油毛

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看一下轮胎毛

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光伏毛

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看下各种毛

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各位都是打个两三折

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你说打两三折

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这挣一个公司蒸发上千亿

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多少散户倾家荡产啊

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真的是我靠中中国的散户真是太惨了

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中国的价值投资者

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其实过去的45年真的是最惨的

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怪不得这么多A股的散户呢

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非常不喜欢价值投资

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非常业务

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价值投资真的是有情可原

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真的哈

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我给大家讲啊

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就是因为我在A股的话

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其实也没有怎么下太多的功夫

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就买了茅台啊

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买了点腾讯嘛

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然后中间也做了几次啊

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腾讯我是去年5月份就这时候卖的

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去年5月份各位我的视频现在还有啊

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现在5月份应该在520左右

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就是就是我在这拍视频的时候

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各位你可以看看他视频还在

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然后当时还很多人骂我

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实际上你拿了一年腾讯的工地

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是不是今年又回到原点了

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一毛钱没挣

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而且呢那一年你要是换成美股的

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这可一家开发公司

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科技公司

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虽然他今年跌了20%

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但是还是翻倍的

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我去年是把腾讯卖掉之后呢

45
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买了头部的啊

46
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谷歌谷歌是第一大仓位嘛

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然后买了苹果到现在基本上还是翻倍的啊

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当然了

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你要是说高点的话

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翻的还多吗

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这就是各位在中国做价投资的难点

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那是什么呢

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你确确实无法预测这个公司会怎么样

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会多久啊

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会持续多长时间啊

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业绩能不能持续增长啊

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啊老板会不会留置

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这个是最难的

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各位你看一下江苏的公司啊

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我记得去年啊有一个做家居的哈

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然后呢老板是自杀了

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然后今年呢留置对吧

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然后再看一下南京的

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南京的公司呃

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破产的破产

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还有红头三包创始人破产是吧

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像苏宁朗朗破产一夜归零啊

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苏宁易购啊

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这个破产真的我觉得真的不值得同情啊

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因为现在苏宁易购还欠了我不少货款

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还有保证金

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当时我们做这个苏宁的供货商嘛

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苏宁自营嘛

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对押金货款几10万没给

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所以他是个不讲诚信的公式

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但是这个恒立液压呢其实有点可惜啊

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你看他的财报

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其实恒立液压的财报很好

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对他这个这些年

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你看所有的各路毛里面都打两折

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人家还出现在创新高了

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哎老板去年是高点高点

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我看到100~120减持了30亿

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但对于一个千亿身家的富豪来讲

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30亿也不算多啊对吧

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那我们也接受过这些公司老板赚钱啊

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但是你别你别像那个苏宁似的啊

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自己搞破产了

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我觉得苏宁这个破产的老板不可能没钱

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他就是为了不少还债

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你说他当时出事之前

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又是买这个什么什么足球俱乐部啊

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又是啊买这个买那个在国外配置了几百个亿

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我觉得他不可能没钱啊

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这个我我是确定的啊

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你比如说我原来和江苏的很多上市公司合作过

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比如惠宏达那个老板王建国

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王建国搞了多少

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搞了多少钱多啊

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你看你看辉宏达到现在股价还是高点的

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一到两折

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它上市的时候还让我们这些合伙合作伙伴买

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当时我们跟他合作的时候

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他说给我们一个亿嘛

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就是我们给他贡献一个亿的啊

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业务我们就相当于把我们的小天才啊啊

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VIVO1部分业务打包给他是吧

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每年的销售额一个亿

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然后他就跟我们估值一个亿

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我跟他合作了差不多将近10年

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到最后一毛钱也没给我们这家公司

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我觉得他绝对成品有问题的啊

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就江湖的公司

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销售的公司呢其实没有问题的

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很少交付的公司

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大部分呢都是是吧

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都是要占点股东的便宜

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然后玩这个资本套路

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但是这个恒力液压呢

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他这个生意本身其实就是做产品

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它没有什么这个啊勾结的这个成分啊

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这家公司出事

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我觉得还是很奇怪的啊

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你再说这个咱们看一下江苏的这些红头三包啊

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红龙三包那个公司呢也是有点问题啊

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就江苏的公司喜欢干啥嘞

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就第一个呢就是呃把生意做大

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然后呢黑的白的哈

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然后明的暗的

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反正他们什么都搞啊

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什么钱都赚啊

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而且呢这个啊资源能力包括各方面都很厉害

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关键很聪明对吧

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你你你只要只要是买江苏的上市公司

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一定要小心啊

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就是江苏的一些老板呢路子都很野啊

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他既有我们山东人的呃

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这种肯干吃苦耐劳

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他也有这个照养人的经理

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关键他还有很惊人的关系

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他他这个江苏的公司

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他其实搁路的逻辑它都有

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所以你只要是跟这种极为聪明的人玩呢

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其实很很费劲的

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所以我的原则是什么呢

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只要是那种小聪明的人

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我一概不大妖道

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这个也是我今天做直播的时候呢

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我还专门强调这一点

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我说就咱们到了重点以后呢

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做事呢一抢救啊

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放心吧

153
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踏实嘛对吧

154
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咱就和那些厚道人打交道吧

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少赚点钱

156
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安安稳稳就行了

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你就看这两年这中国的首富有几个好下场的

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各位你们看看对吧

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就没有一个啊

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现在目前这首富里面还还还健在的啊

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就是说白了就是还能健康的

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就目前只能看到中山散啊

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做农牧三全的哈

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看来这个黄征黄忠跑美国来了啊

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张一鸣现在反正也是隐居幕后啊

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基本上不说话

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你现在这首富里面

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马云肯定哈肯定落寞了嘛

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对不对

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那不用跟我们说恒大碧桂园这种是吧

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那那那那苏宁国美那基本上都都完打

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都破产了是吧

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再看一下这个所有的宣传零点

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就中国的首富到现在为止

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如果说嗯啊不能早点退的啊

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像老段这种早点退啊

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基本上都回去了

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对这个如果说一个首付啊

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然后呢啊又要出问题

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这是能理解90%的首付都出问题

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那这个事我觉得肯定不是首富自己的问题

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对不对

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所以很多时候我就哎呀我也想不明白啊

184
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当然你我们是因为啊可老慢学嘛

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那这些年呢其实还不错对吧

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最起码的也啊还还是比较自由啊

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做点事我还比较踏实啊

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当然了

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你说吃那些亏的也是对今天有帮助哈

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如果说不吃亏啊

191
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怎么会买美股呢是吧

192
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如果说这个不吃亏啊

193
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怎么样早点看明白这个世界的啊

194
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如果说不早点被搞啊

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怎么能明白这个江湖险恶呢哈如果说啊

196
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不是因为早些年就就被这个弄得很难受哈

197
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我们不可能有这么高的觉悟嘛

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所以很多时候吃亏啊也不见得是坏事

199
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但是呢老吃亏

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这肯定有问题了对吧

201
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如果一个人啊

202
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你你吃一次亏啊

203
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这个事是咱啊运气不好

204
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吃两次亏呢啊

205
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自认倒霉

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吃三次四次哈

207
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最后还进去

208
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这个是脑子绝对有问题

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你知道吧

210
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反正我这人的性格是这样哈

211
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就是你打我一巴掌啊

212
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我觉得那那那我忍了

213
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打我两巴掌

214
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我绝对还回去

215
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你打我三巴掌

216
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那是我自己的问题

217
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那你怎么老在一个地方绊倒呢

218
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对不对

219
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就像我在国内做生意

220
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做到最后呢对吧

221
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刚开始规模小

222
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一年挣个几千万的时候

223
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有人找麻烦啊

224
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息事宁人啊

225
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后来做了几个亿了啊

226
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还上门搞

227
00:06:52,899 --> 00:06:54,689
那我就那举报

228
00:06:54,689 --> 00:06:56,430
然后后面呢就是再再搞

229
00:06:56,430 --> 00:06:56,930
我是吧

230
00:06:56,930 --> 00:06:58,550
我就拔刀而而起了

231
00:06:58,550 --> 00:06:59,550
那就是拼菜刀了

232
00:06:59,550 --> 00:07:00,410
再到最后来呢

233
00:07:00,410 --> 00:07:02,110
那就老子惹不起

234
00:07:02,110 --> 00:07:03,149
还不能躲得起吧

235
00:07:03,949 --> 00:07:06,689
所以我后面我就学聪明了对吧

236
00:07:06,689 --> 00:07:08,850
只要找事我就走人啊

237
00:07:08,850 --> 00:07:10,529
只要这点事我就关停

238
00:07:10,529 --> 00:07:11,310
再点事

239
00:07:11,310 --> 00:07:11,769
拜拜

240
00:07:11,769 --> 00:07:13,038
老子这辈子不来了

241
00:07:13,038 --> 00:07:14,439
昨天还有很多人说强哥

242
00:07:14,439 --> 00:07:15,418
你这个怎么怎么样

243
00:07:15,418 --> 00:07:15,980
嗨

244
00:07:15,980 --> 00:07:17,300
那是你没吃过亏啊

245
00:07:17,300 --> 00:07:17,699
兄弟们

246
00:07:18,519 --> 00:07:20,160
那是你没被打击过

247
00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,199
那是你没搞的太少了

248
00:07:22,199 --> 00:07:23,040
搞了几次

249
00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:24,439
搞得你喊天天不应

250
00:07:24,439 --> 00:07:25,360
喊地地不灵的时候

251
00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,379
你你体验那个绝望你就知道了

252
00:07:27,379 --> 00:07:28,439
就是我给大家讲

253
00:07:28,439 --> 00:07:29,560
就是这个人啊

254
00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:31,079
你一旦体验过绝望

255
00:07:31,079 --> 00:07:33,300
你你是绝对不会相信任何事情的

256
00:07:33,300 --> 00:07:35,699
这个是因为我自己亲身经历是吧

257
00:07:35,699 --> 00:07:37,910
那没有人能帮你知道吧

258
00:07:37,910 --> 00:07:39,350
就是穷孩子出身啊

259
00:07:39,350 --> 00:07:40,189
我跟你讲哈

260
00:07:40,189 --> 00:07:41,649
穷孩子创始人

261
00:07:41,649 --> 00:07:44,850
你一旦你的身价和你的资源不匹配

262
00:07:44,850 --> 00:07:46,029
你出事的时候

263
00:07:46,029 --> 00:07:46,910
我告诉你啊

264
00:07:46,910 --> 00:07:48,189
那只有给你落井下石的

265
00:07:48,189 --> 00:07:49,589
没有一个能给你帮忙的

266
00:07:49,589 --> 00:07:50,470
不是他们不想帮他

267
00:07:50,470 --> 00:07:51,579
没有能力帮各位

268
00:07:51,579 --> 00:07:52,939
就是就是我跟你讲

269
00:07:52,939 --> 00:07:54,319
我到最后到什么程度啊

270
00:07:57,949 --> 00:07:58,610
你不出事

271
00:07:58,610 --> 00:07:59,689
我们这同学怎么有价值呢

272
00:07:59,689 --> 00:08:01,800
各位就你身边那些人是这么想你的

273
00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:03,040
盼着你出事对吧

274
00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:03,939
好好帮帮忙

275
00:08:03,939 --> 00:08:04,959
帮什么帮倒忙呀

276
00:08:04,959 --> 00:08:06,589
因为你出事的时候你就大放血嘛

277
00:08:06,589 --> 00:08:07,410
找人嘛

278
00:08:07,410 --> 00:08:08,189
送钱嘛

279
00:08:08,189 --> 00:08:09,430
他们也可以捞一点嘛

280
00:08:09,430 --> 00:08:10,509
所以说我给大家讲啊

281
00:08:10,509 --> 00:08:11,269
就是底层人

282
00:08:11,269 --> 00:08:12,040
你记住啊

283
00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,399
你的财富和你的资源不匹配

284
00:08:14,399 --> 00:08:15,740
你就白白对吧

285
00:08:15,740 --> 00:08:17,319
你你只配拥有1万块钱

286
00:08:17,319 --> 00:08:18,040
你就有1万

287
00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:19,300
你多一分都不是你的啊

288
00:08:19,300 --> 00:08:20,879
嗨这个是我得出的结论啊

289
00:08:20,879 --> 00:08:21,360
当然了

290
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:23,449
这个结论呢让我躲避了很多灾难啊

291
00:08:23,449 --> 00:08:24,970
就是我到现在哇

292
00:08:24,970 --> 00:08:27,930
我还能这个每天谈笑风车呵

293
00:08:27,930 --> 00:08:28,449
很健康

294
00:08:28,449 --> 00:08:31,738
是因为我比别人更早的哈挨过毒打哈

295
00:08:31,738 --> 00:08:35,080
所以兄弟们这个一旦实现了财务自由啊

296
00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:39,519
哈一定要找一个和自己的资源啊匹配的地方啊

297
00:08:39,519 --> 00:08:41,620
最好呢不需要自燃的地方

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