美股：软件股再次暴跌，3倍做多半导体涨疯。【2026-04-23】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年4月23号星期四

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大盘今天调整

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跌幅0.41%

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有一段下影线

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盘中探底回升

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让日K线图看起来好看一些

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和昨天预测的一样

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目前标普指数正在构筑小平台整理

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在进一步上涨之前

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适当的整理是必要的

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用来消化各种超买的指标

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纳斯达克指数下跌219.06点

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跌幅0.89%

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纳指创新高后

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今天在软件股全线溃不成军的情况下

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也出现了小幅调整

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上涨结构还好没有破坏

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在小平台整理之后

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再看看是不是会再涨一波

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自2月份软件已死的板块结构性暴跌之后

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今天这个板块再次重创

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应用软件和软件基础设施板块

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深红色下跌跌幅5%左右

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2026硬件行情非常好

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软件则是苦不堪言

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那今天又是什么软件股又一次崩了呢

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now啊

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Service now

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他的财报成了这场风暴的导火索

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另外连做硬件的IBM

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也因为软件业增速放缓而大跌

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surface now的财报也没有很差

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实际上now公布了一个超过预期的季报

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订月收入36.7亿

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同比增长22%

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调整后每股收益97美分

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这都超过了华尔街的预期

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公司上调了2026年全年订阅收入指引

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预测数是157到158亿之间

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剩余还没有履约的订单也非常强劲

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总RPO也就是还没履约的订单

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有277亿美元

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长期订单储备充足

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但股价跌了很多

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华尔街找了什么理由来砸盘呢

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now下调了全年经营利润率指引

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从之前的32%

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下调到31.5%

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下一季度的利润率只有26.5%

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地域分析师预测的30.1%

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生意赚钱的效率下降

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正好现在软件股到底行不行的质疑声音很大

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一看到你这预测未来赚钱慢了一点就很敏感了

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管理层还表示

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受到中东海峡封锁影响

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部分大额订单出现了延迟

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这也成为做空的理由

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公司CEO说

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Now

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在2026年的AI收入将从10亿提高到15亿

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但市场根本不管

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这个其实表现再好也没有用

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AI叙事底下软件行业的商业模式将被改写

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SAAS的订阅是按时间的

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按月按年交钱

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人工智能是按token付钱

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token是AI输入输出的计费单位

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用多少

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交多少钱

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有用才付钱

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软件云订阅模式

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就面临人工智能商业模式的挑战

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市场认为软件行业过时了

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这样的成见一时半会儿也改变不了

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IBM公布了一个财报

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股价也是放量跳空下跌

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IBM有硬件

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也有软件

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软件的收入占44%

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虽然IBM在一季度营收同比增长9%

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收入159.2亿

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每股收益1.19

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都超过了预期

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硬件表现很好

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Z系列大型机收入暴涨51%

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但是软件收入增长11%

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核心增长点red hat的增速出现了显著放缓

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这是IBM转型AI云业务的重点

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另外软件增长11%

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其中包括了刚收购以来的业务

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需要剔除并表收入

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剔除收购因素

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软件业务就一般啦

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然后管理层还拒绝上调全年指引

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维持营收增长5%的预期

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这家公司的业务都不全是软件的

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就跌了这么多

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可见软件行业目前是危机四伏

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财报超预期的大跌

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财报有一些细节不太符合预期的

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就暴跌了

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这次财报季

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软件股

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看来暴雷的风险还真不小

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软件行业的几个巨头

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微软和adobe都出现了明显下跌

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AI现在是多模态生成一个图片

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抠个背景生成和编辑一个视频都变得很容易

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而专门做平面设计和视频编辑的adobe

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感觉就像是软件行业里面的柯达胶卷

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adobe也不是没有AI

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只是商业模式有被颠覆的概率

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微软也跌

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同样受到软件行业整体下跌影响

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微软极有可能是这两波软件股崩盘当中

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被错杀的对象

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抄底会面临各种炸雷

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短线会比较痛苦

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长线获得回报的概率比较高

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微软今天宣布了大规模的自愿提前退休

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买断计划

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准备腾出资源和岗位

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以方便人工智能转型

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美国员工的年龄加上工龄超过70的

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且职务在高级总监及以下级别的员工

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可以选择自愿退休

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拿钱走人

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预计这个计划覆盖7%的美国员工

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人数8750人

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很多资深员工比如30岁入职

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现在50岁了

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年龄加工龄超过70

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他们工资高

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技术主要集中在传统的windows office这些领域

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而现在AI了

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需要更新人才库

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腾笼换鸟

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备战AI转型

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自愿买断工龄计划是微软人才换血的重要举措

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软件股也要AI

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微软也会搞出来一个领先的人工智能

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另外去年四季报后

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微软大跌原因是云业务不及预期

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实际上

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微软的云业务优先于内部研发

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Ai

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主动压缩云业务收入

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并不是没有订单

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另一个原因是资本支出

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一个季度要花375亿美元

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令投资者忧心忡忡

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微软并不是单纯的软件公司

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它有三大业务板块

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它是云业务巨头之一

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云收入占比40%

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算是卖算力的

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人工智能时代

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卖算力是门好生意

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另一个业务板块是软件

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微软的软件更是人们离不开的生产力工具

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天天在用

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收入占比42%

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第三大业务板块是硬件和游戏

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微软的人工智能call pilot有望后来者居上

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公司并非坐以待毙

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当然啦

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一季度财报可能会很好

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股价也有可能像ServiceNow一样被锤

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但你不能和市场去讲道理

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如果抄底买了

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可能长线收益不错

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短线需要经得起折腾

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软件板块下跌

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所以软件ETF也是下跌的

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有代表性的ETF是IGV

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相比个股龙头

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我认为软件行业确实会有一些公司

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跟不上时代的脚步

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逐渐被淘汰

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行业ETF虽然说分散了风险

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但是也承担了整体行业的风险

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有时IGV还不如微软

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等别人都创了新高

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会互相带动一些

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高盛分析师认为

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软件行业和AI不是零和博弈

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高盛的报告认为

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市场过于悲观

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把转型期的阵痛当做行业要终结

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市场认为软件原来是按订阅收费

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按使用人数计价

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AI提高了工作效率

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打工人少了

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软件收入下降前景不乐观

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但是高盛认为

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软件开发成本也在下降

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原来要请很多人开发软件

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那现在AI帮忙开发软件

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省了钱

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成本低了

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可以将软件便宜点卖利润点还是有的

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AI提高了效率

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减少了人力成本

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使企业能有更多的资金用于it方面

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软件是不行了

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但是硬件还是上涨的

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最近三倍做多半导体ETF涨疯了

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从大盘V型反转以来

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SOXL从40涨到110啊

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翻了快两倍了

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与它对应的费城半导体指数今天突破了1万点

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市场的共识是买AI还得是买硬件

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三倍做多半导体ETF是杠杆做多

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费城半导体指数不计损耗的杠杆是三倍

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涨是按三倍跌

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也是按三倍

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所以是短线投机的利器

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费半指数的成分股有30只

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英伟达AMD博通

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英特尔等都在这里面对了

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倒霉的高通

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也是费办指数里面的啊

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真的是邪门儿了

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半导体这么能涨

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怎么我买的里面的高通呢

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显然财报季到来

230
00:09:20,690 --> 00:09:23,490
半导体的财报啊又将非常不错

231
00:09:23,490 --> 00:09:25,309
资金提前炒作股价

232
00:09:25,309 --> 00:09:29,190
到时想拿一个业绩超预期就卖给追高的人

233
00:09:29,190 --> 00:09:31,009
市场的博弈就是这样

234
00:09:31,009 --> 00:09:33,970
提前涨完了消息跑得比股价慢

235
00:09:33,970 --> 00:09:35,309
就会见光死

236
00:09:35,309 --> 00:09:37,159
利好出尽之类的

237
00:09:37,159 --> 00:09:40,320
德州仪器今天大涨了19.43%

238
00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,639
是今天费半里面的明星

239
00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:44,720
原因是财报很好

240
00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,220
每股收益大超分析师预期

241
00:09:47,220 --> 00:09:50,860
二季度预测营收在50亿到54亿之间

242
00:09:50,860 --> 00:09:53,019
显著高于市场预期

243
00:09:53,019 --> 00:09:56,349
数据中心收入同比增长90%

244
00:09:56,349 --> 00:10:00,220
德州仪器在数据中心里面的产品是电源管理

245
00:10:00,220 --> 00:10:02,019
AI是用电大户

246
00:10:02,019 --> 00:10:04,460
德州一汽的多项电源控制器

247
00:10:04,460 --> 00:10:08,889
能把高压电精准平稳的降压给GPU使用

248
00:10:08,889 --> 00:10:11,570
还有一个产品是电子保险丝

249
00:10:11,570 --> 00:10:13,870
免得把硬件烧坏了

250
00:10:13,870 --> 00:10:16,309
德州仪器的温控传感器

251
00:10:16,309 --> 00:10:17,970
信号调理芯片

252
00:10:17,970 --> 00:10:20,570
光电信号传输的驱动芯片等

253
00:10:20,570 --> 00:10:23,190
都是数据中心里面的配套产品

254
00:10:23,190 --> 00:10:27,500
几大巨头都开出1000亿到2000亿的资本开支

255
00:10:27,500 --> 00:10:30,519
整个市场有大几千亿的钱要花

256
00:10:30,519 --> 00:10:34,779
这些钱就花到了数据中心的各种硬件产品当中

257
00:10:34,779 --> 00:10:37,440
所以费半指数继续大涨

258
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:40,559
在AI上面收钱的硬件大涨了

259
00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:44,809
而花钱投资AI的那些巨头则各有各的难处

260
00:10:44,809 --> 00:10:46,210
微软谷歌

261
00:10:46,210 --> 00:10:46,990
亚马逊

262
00:10:46,990 --> 00:10:50,850
甲骨文等花钱投资数据中心却不好说

263
00:10:50,850 --> 00:10:53,259
会不会有好的投入产出比

264
00:10:53,259 --> 00:10:54,620
等财报一出

265
00:10:54,620 --> 00:10:57,779
市场又要拿CAPEX资本支出做文章

266
00:10:57,779 --> 00:10:59,289
砸盘了

267
00:11:00,350 --> 00:11:04,090
率先公布财报的特斯拉财报各项数字好转了

268
00:11:04,090 --> 00:11:05,850
基本面正在变好

269
00:11:05,850 --> 00:11:10,570
但是股票就在昨天收盘几分钟涨了几分钟

270
00:11:10,570 --> 00:11:14,029
等我一截完了图就跌回去了

271
00:11:17,110 --> 00:11:18,750
财报昨天分析过了

272
00:11:18,750 --> 00:11:21,309
是近几个季度以来最好的财报

273
00:11:21,309 --> 00:11:23,500
股价应该止跌了

274
00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:26,059
但股价为什么还在下跌呢

275
00:11:26,059 --> 00:11:27,519
一个原因是

276
00:11:27,519 --> 00:11:28,980
特斯拉2026年

277
00:11:28,980 --> 00:11:31,850
预计人工智能支出250亿美元

278
00:11:31,850 --> 00:11:35,929
投资支出将导致今年自由现金流转为负数

279
00:11:35,929 --> 00:11:37,190
长远看

280
00:11:37,190 --> 00:11:38,889
特斯拉加大AI投入

281
00:11:38,889 --> 00:11:41,808
利好转型炒作人形机器人

282
00:11:41,808 --> 00:11:42,389
机器人

283
00:11:42,389 --> 00:11:47,299
出租车FSDAIM是特斯拉股价的动力来源

284
00:11:47,299 --> 00:11:49,080
这总不能不花钱

285
00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:50,500
还能高科技吧

286
00:11:50,500 --> 00:11:53,460
短期的支出当利空来砸盘

287
00:11:53,460 --> 00:11:55,950
长远来看它是必要开支

288
00:11:58,570 --> 00:12:01,629
中短线行情的方向不是非常明确

289
00:12:01,629 --> 00:12:03,220
需要再观察

290
00:12:03,220 --> 00:12:05,419
我的阿BKR公开账户

291
00:12:05,419 --> 00:12:08,360
今天回撤5190呃

292
00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:10,049
跌了2.63%

293
00:12:10,049 --> 00:12:12,250
除了特斯拉跌的多一些

294
00:12:12,250 --> 00:12:14,250
radio啦circle

295
00:12:14,250 --> 00:12:16,710
微软也都有较大跌幅

296
00:12:16,710 --> 00:12:19,009
截图净值19.1万

297
00:12:19,009 --> 00:12:21,149
今年要回到20万的路

298
00:12:21,149 --> 00:12:22,970
有点曲折啊

299
00:12:22,970 --> 00:12:26,289
如果主要仓位特斯拉和谷歌都不涨呢

300
00:12:26,289 --> 00:12:29,399
那账户回升的挑战还是有点大

301
00:12:29,399 --> 00:12:31,139
最后说一个奈飞

302
00:12:31,139 --> 00:12:33,779
此前奈飞收购华纳兄弟

303
00:12:33,779 --> 00:12:35,889
结果收购不成功

304
00:12:35,889 --> 00:12:37,110
钱太多了

305
00:12:37,110 --> 00:12:38,129
没地儿花

306
00:12:38,129 --> 00:12:39,009
于是宣布

307
00:12:39,009 --> 00:12:41,970
用于额外回购股票的资金是250亿

308
00:12:41,970 --> 00:12:44,769
所以总共还有300多亿的回购资金

309
00:12:44,769 --> 00:12:47,049
准备买入股票公司

310
00:12:47,049 --> 00:12:49,710
有钱回购是真正回报股东

311
00:12:49,710 --> 00:12:51,809
这个利好没有拉动股价

312
00:12:51,809 --> 00:12:55,220
但会在未来支撑股价好

313
00:12:55,220 --> 00:12:56,919
那我们今天的节目就分享到这里

314
00:12:56,919 --> 00:12:57,679
感谢大家收看

315
00:12:57,679 --> 00:12:59,120
我们下期节目再见

316
00:12:59,120 --> 00:12:59,879
拜拜

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