【The Motley Fool】估值200倍的AI巨头，财务完美却隐藏危机

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欢迎来到最新的杂牌全榜单

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我正站在巧克力气球上

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我们有长期的笨蛋

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里克·米纳拉斯和蒂姆·买家

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为一级隐藏宝石数据库中前两百的股票打一到十的评分

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这是Palantir的股票代码

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PTR首字母

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我们将评估Palantir的业务实力

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包括行业和竞争因素

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十分是无敌的

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一分是绝望的里克

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蒂姆给了八分

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你只有五分

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是的，这在平衡上会引发争议

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Palantir是一家极其强大的企业

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其技术已得到验证

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增长速度非常出色

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问题是Palantir最近直接绑定了现任政府

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这使得替换或取消的风险

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大规模政府合同的取消

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比一年前我考虑的要更可能

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这是一层风险

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嗯，我之前没考虑过

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但现在必须考虑

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是的

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剥离Palantir

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政治倾向

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对许多人是致命缺陷

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但对他人是成交关键

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你拥有近年强劲增长的优质企业

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Palantir成功将平台移植给美国联邦机构

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及公共部门政府承包商

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在商业领域成为巨头

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服务于私营部门

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我给管理团队打八分

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十分是沃伦·巴菲特

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一分是霍默

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辛普森里克

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你得了六分蒂姆

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你只有四分

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主要是因为CEO亚历克斯·卡普招惹争议

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我认为这是不必要的

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如果卡普和他的创始伙伴是资本 steward

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妥善管理股东资金

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他们将更容易处理

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Palantir的股票薪酬占比约15%

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三点

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占营收的15.3%

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远未达到

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这里最大的支持者

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我认为这真的很像雪花

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这几乎是那个的两倍

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但雪花没有复杂的多类股份结构

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这种复杂的多类股份架构

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这使创始人和关键帕兰蒂尔内部人士牢牢掌握控制权

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对地毯唯一的真正制约是其他

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帕兰蒂尔的领导者就是他们自己和他们的动机

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这让我有点犹豫

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是的

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三位联合创始人仍是帕兰蒂尔的核心成员

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二十多年后

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卡普是自然的首席执行官

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科恩担任总裁兼秘书

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这种任期自然是极佳的

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但玻璃门调查显示员工对卡普的满意度达68%

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但仅59%的员工会推荐他人加入

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这并不理想

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自然卡普多年来发表过一些政治极化言论

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呃

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当帕兰蒂尔还是与国家立场一致的公共部门公司时

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情况完全不同

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当你服务于商业企业时

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更圆融的跨党派策略能扩大客户群

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这些家伙据说帮助找到本·拉登很了不起

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但卡彭最近在忙什么

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我给金融板块打六分

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十分是堡垒级

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一分令人咋舌

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这次你们都同意九点三的评分

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是的

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看啊

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这就是为什么它在超新星远征中成为投机性灾难

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如果你想了解为何是金融板块

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因为无可争议

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这项业务在榨取现金流方面有多出色

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我不得不说帕兰蒂尔去年实现了超过一点四亿

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完全有机的自由现金流

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这是扣除股权激励和资本支出后的结果

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帕兰蒂尔没有任何明显债务

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公司财务实力堪比阿诺德·施瓦辛格

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在康纳时期

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如果你看过那些电影

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非常健壮

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他会回来的

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所以帕兰蒂尔连续两年

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实现加速增长

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上财年营收增长56%创纪录

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营收增长56%创纪录

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呃

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还没完成

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指导意见要求在2026年实现61%的增长

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其商业收入增长更快

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幸好

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呃

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Palantir拥有超过70亿美元现金

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正如Tim提到的

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资产负债表上没有长期债务

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很少有如此规模且增长如此迅速的公司

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仍在加速业务发展

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好的

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Rick

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我们开始估值分析吧

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呃

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十分安全是确定的

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一分是彩票

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是的

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我评估为0到5%

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呃

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五年年均增长率

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正向增长

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但幅度不大

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安全评分7估值是Palantir的合理区间

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存在诸多担忧

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股票并不便宜

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市盈率超过80倍

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基于历史营收

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市盈率超200倍

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净利率相当亮眼

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但能否持续

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如果美国政策发生改变

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新政府会如何调整移民管控

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并且

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在较小程度上

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国防业务

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得益于优惠税率政策

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资产负债表非常健康

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但如同毕业后的校花难以保持青春

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我的安全评分仅为普通7分

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是的

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我调整为5到10%

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呃

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因为资产负债表潜力巨大

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但安全评分仅4分

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难以长期逆重力飞行

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现有现金流

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极度夸张的资产负债表

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为公司提供资本实现有机增长

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意味着可能收购增长型企业

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但我认为他们需要这样做

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而且你看，交易价格比市场低0.3点

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8%的自由现金流收益率

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这到底意味着什么

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Palantir的股价比市场平均高出约9倍

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你相信吗

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Palantir能否至少以市场平均9倍的速度增长自由现金流

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如果你做得很好

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但我说这可能只是暂时的

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但天啊

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你知道的

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如果你像Palantir那样紧密绑定当前政府

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你可能面临增长暴跌的风险

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我认为这有点令人担忧

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所以我给安全评分只有4分

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尽管他们曾逆势上涨或许还能再创奇迹

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谢谢

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感谢Tim和Rick

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他们给Palantir打了6.0分的低总分

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多年来这只股票收益丰厚

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毫不夸张地说

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但Rick和Tim都对其当前估值表示担忧

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嗯对于顶部

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Tim更看好Snowflake

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尽管有大量股票补偿Rick更倾向Axon

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每日收盘后七点关注新排行榜

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M

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接下来是英伟达

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暂且如此

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我将在下一部分做出其他大胆言论

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但就Palantir的规模而言

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天啊兄弟

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我的意思是

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他们简直太棒了

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