投资实现提前退休(FIRE)的方案

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大家好

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今天我们聊一个既理性又浪漫的话题

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fire也就是财务独立

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提前退休

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fire的核心其实只有一句话

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你的被动收入必须大于等于你的年度支出

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听起来简单

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但要把它拆成我该存多少钱

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投什么

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多久能实现就没那么容易了

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这期视频我们会用银行存款

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债券基金分红股

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科技股ETF这五类主流工具

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针对年消费5万10万20万港币

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三档生活水平算清楚两件事

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第一需要多少本金

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才能靠被动收入支撑这个生活水平

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第二从工作加定投到真正启动fire要用几年好

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我们进入第一章

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fire的底层公式

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fire圈有一个最经典的法则

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叫做4%安全提取率

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它来自1998年美国三医学院的著名研究

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简单讲

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就是你需要的本金

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等于年度消费除以安全提取率

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举个例子

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如果安全提取率是4%

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那么本金就等于年消费的25倍

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如果你保守一点

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用3%本金就是年消费的33倍

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如果你只靠银行存款

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按2.5%的利息算

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本金要达到年消费的40倍

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换句话说

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你选择的资产直接决定了你需要多少本金

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这就是为什么不同投资工具对fire的助力差异

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这么巨大

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第二章我们看看五类资产的真实收益画像

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根据2026年4月的市场数据

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第一类银行存款

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也就是港币定期长期年化大约2.5%

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几乎没有波动

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第二类债券和债券基金

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包括国债加投资及债

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长期年化大约4%

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第三类混合型基金

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股债平衡的那种年化大约6%

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第四类分红股和红利ETF年化大约8%

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其中股息部分占3%到四

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第五类宽基股票ETF

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比如标普500

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长期年化大约10%

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第六类科技股和纳指ETF

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比如QQQ过去长期年化高达13%

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但波动也最大

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请注意一个关键点

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年化收益不等于可提取收益

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存款和债券的收益几乎可以全部取出

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但股票的10%里面包含了资本利得

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波动很大

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所以业内一般只按4%安全提取率来算

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它能支撑的安全现金流

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第三章三档生活水平到底需要多少本金

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把公式套进去

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我们得到下面这组关键数字

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年消费5万港币这一档

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如果你全靠银行存款

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需要200万

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如果是债券或者宽基ETF

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只需要125万

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如果是科技股ETF

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因为波动大

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要143万

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年消费10万港币

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这一档全存款要400万

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债券或宽基ETF只要250万

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科技股ETF要286万

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年消费20万港币

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这一档也就是所谓的富足fire全存款要800万

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债券或宽基ETF要500万

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科技股ETF要571万

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这里有三个非常重要的结论

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第一

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纯靠银行存款实现

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fire需要多出60%的本金

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同样年消费10万

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存款路径要400万

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而ETF组合只要250万

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这150万的差距

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就是通胀加低息偷走的隐藏税

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第二科技股ETF虽然收益高

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但因为波动极大

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安全提取率要调低到3%到3.5

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所以需要的本金反而比标普500还多

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高收益并不等于低本金需求

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第三最优解是以指数ETF为主债券打底的组合

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用4%法则基本锁定年支出的25倍

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这个黄金比例

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所以对于后面要讨论的启动fire所需本金

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我们统一采用这三个数字

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5万消费对应125万本金

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10万消费对应250万本金

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20万消费对应500万本金

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第四章来了

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最关键的问题

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工作加定投几年能攒够本金

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这里我们用年金终值的思路来估算

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假设你从零开始定投

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以稳健的股债

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六四组合长期年化8%作为基准

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下面是非常直观的一组数字

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如果你每月储蓄5000港币

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实现5万消费要13年

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10万消费要20年

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20万消费要27年

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如果你每月储蓄1万港币

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实现5万消费

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只要8年

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10万消费要13年

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20万消费要20年

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如果你每月储蓄2万港币

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实现5万消费

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只要5年

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10万消费8年

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20万消费13年

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如果你每月储蓄3万港币

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实现5万消费

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4年

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10万消费6年

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20万消费10年

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如果你每月储蓄5万港币

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实现5万消费3年

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10万消费4年

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20万消费7年

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这里面有几个有意思的规律

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第1月储蓄翻倍年限并不是减半

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而是减少大约35%到40

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这是复利的特点

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时间比储蓄额更值钱

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第2月存1万加上年化8%

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大约8年就能实现5万消费的精简

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fire13年能达到10万消费的标准

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fire第三追求20万消费的富足

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fire是数量级上的难度跃升

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在月存1万的情况下

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要整整20年

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通过提高投资技巧

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可以大幅度缩短fire时间

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收益率每提升两个百分点

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达成时间可缩短20%至30

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但更高收益意味着更大回撤

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风险需通过多元化分散

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第五章收益率的杠杆效应

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同样是每月存1万港币

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持续30年

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不同资产组合的中值差距会让你吓一跳

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全部放银行存款年化2.5%

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30年后大约180万

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全部买债券年化4%

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大约230万

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股债六四组合年化7%

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大约380万

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全部买宽基ETF年化10%

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大约570万

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如果全部押注

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那只加科技年化13%

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30年后大约870万

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13%和2.5%

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30年后相差接近五倍

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所以不冒一点风险

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反而是fire路上最大的风险

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第六章实战配置建议

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基于以上推演

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我给出三档路径

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低档稳健派

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适合45岁以上

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或者风险承受能力较低的朋友

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配置上40%债券加40%

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分红ETF加20%

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存款预期年化6%左右

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如果目标是10万

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消费需要220万本金

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月存1万5000

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大约持续13年

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最大回撤可能在10%左右

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第二档平衡派

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这是我最推荐的方案

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适合30~45岁的主流人群

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配置上60%宽基ETF

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比如VOOO或者港股的3033

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加25%

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债券加15%

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分红ETF预期年化8%左右

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10万消费目标需要250万

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本金月存1万

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大约持续13年

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最大回撤可能在25%左右

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第三档进攻派

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适合25~35岁的高收入专业人士

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配置上50%

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纳指ETF加30%

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标普ETF加20%

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个股预期年化11%左右

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10万消费目标月存1万

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大约持续11年

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但你要做好心理准备

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最大回撤可能达到40%

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不管你选哪一档

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都请记住三条铁律

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第一条

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能定投就别择时

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每月固定买入

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用时间来摊平波动

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择时的人赢了市场

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输了生活

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第二条

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绝对不要加杠杆

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压住单一资产

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期权和杠杆ETF只能是卫星仓位

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占比不要超过10%

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2022年

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纳指下跌33%

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加杠杆的人直接爆仓离场

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第三条

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一定要建立两到3年生活费的现金缓冲

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熊市的时候靠现金过活

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避免被迫在低点卖出股票

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这就是所谓债券帐篷策略的核心

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好来到我们的结尾

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fire不是一场暴富的赌博

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而是一场关于高储蓄率

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长期复利

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合适资产的耐力赛

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我们今天拆的三组数字

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125万

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250万500万

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他们背后不是遥不可及的神话

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00:09:45,039 --> 00:09:47,159
而是一个普通专业人士

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00:09:47,159 --> 00:09:50,120
靠着每月几千到几万港币的定投

241
00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:53,379
用10年到20年就能触及的目标

242
00:09:53,379 --> 00:09:55,759
最后送大家一句话

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00:09:55,759 --> 00:09:58,799
财务自由的起点永远是储蓄率

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00:09:58,799 --> 00:10:00,120
不是收益率

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00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,159
收益率决定你走多快

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00:10:02,159 --> 00:10:04,929
但储蓄率决定你能不能出发

247
00:10:04,929 --> 00:10:07,129
如果这期视频对你有启发

248
00:10:07,129 --> 00:10:09,700
欢迎点赞收藏关注

249
00:10:09,700 --> 00:10:10,559
下一期

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00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:11,279
我们拆

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00:10:11,279 --> 00:10:15,419
如何用期权给fire组合加3%的额外收益

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00:10:15,419 --> 00:10:16,879
我们下期见

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