【Financial Education】AMD目标价将直冲$1000？

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你得翻我的煎饼了

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我刚在前任页面发了这个

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看看这个公开计数

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今天这里就有17万8千美元

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恭喜大家今天有所斩获

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评论区告诉我吧

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今天你赚了多少

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我真是绝了啊

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今天的公开计数火箭般飙升

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靠mda m兄弟

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看看这波操作

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今天涨了9万4千美元

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我们这边涨了3万

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亚马逊涨了1万3千

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美国运通涨了7千

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今天连志愿者都加入基金了

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涨了约5800

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Paypal涨了4800

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Paypal居然涨了

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这肯定是个好日子

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服务现在3千

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所以我有2800个elf on a shelf

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努力回到货架上

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看看这个elf又涨了4个

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谷歌麦当劳持续强劲

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今天视频里要讲的三个核心主题

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第一个是如何不被市场骗走

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我想给所有人一些建议

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不要被市场骗走

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我反复看到这种情况

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人们被市场骗走了

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市场在下跌

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他们慌了

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市场在上涨

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他们慌成什么样

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天啊

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好吧

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我给大家几点提醒

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希望你们别掉进这个陷阱

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好的

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第二点因为损失太大

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这太恶心了

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第二amd

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我该以什么价卖出amd

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接下来股价会怎么走

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没错

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价格目标

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这类事情对吧

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我们今天视频里会讲到

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我觉得这是个重要话题

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因为这只股票一直是个绝对的猛兽

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没错每次人们试图把它打入冷宫

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它总能卷土重来且越来越强

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没错今天我们第三个主题是讨论一些赚钱良机

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我现在看到市场中存在

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看到一大堆

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很多很多

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好的

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今天在这期视频中我们将讨论这个

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有一件事

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只需要一件

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请务必点个赞

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给已经点过赞的每个人点赞图标

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非常感谢

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这对我来说意义重大

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同时请订阅我们的频道

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现在我们大概有

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我认为频道订阅量已达九十四万

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感谢每一位订阅频道的观众

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希望大家喜欢这些视频内容

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我为大家提供的这些内容

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好的好了

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让我们开始吧

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今天我们有三个重点要讨论

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听着我把纳斯达克走势图回溯到

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我刚开始投资时是在2008年末

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当时正值金融危机时期看投资者多少次退出市场

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没错我住在拉斯维加斯

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没错

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拉斯维加斯

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拉斯维加斯的魔术师可能比世界上任何地方都多

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股市也有这种魔术

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不断愚弄人们卖出股票

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不是买入股票

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这类事情唯一的区别是魔术手法各不相同

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但最终都是魔术

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总在发生某种诡计

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不断愚弄人们反复上当

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每次

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人们总想这次不会被愚弄

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然后再次被套现

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然后错过抄底机会

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真是

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天啊

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像

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这魔术为何总能反复愚弄人们

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我观察到

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我亲眼见证过无数次

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没错

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自从我入市以来直到现在这些周期

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在每一个这样的时间段里

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人们都被误导不去购买或抛售处于历史高点的股市

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我需要卖出所有股票，市场即将下跌

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我需要卖出像

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天啊兄弟，这一切到底为了什么

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纳斯达克要涨一倍

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从我当年进入市场开始

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有时候当我提到这些

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有时候人们并不完全理解

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比如

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我在这股市里待了多久了

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所以我这样对你说

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这些都是我人生中发生的事情

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自从我进入市场以来

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我退学了，离开学校去了一次快速旅行

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对的，当时我在参加田径训练

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然后退出了田径队

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没有去大学

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我觉得我有六十或七十个学分

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在大学里修了这些学分然后退学了

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去了趟快速旅行

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开始年收入四万美元

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大约六个月后

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开始年收入五万美元

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那笔钱赚得真不错

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在那时候

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大概是2010年左右

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我搬出父母家，搬到格伦代尔的一居室公寓

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在旧的卡贝拉商场旁边

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现在那里变成了巴思普商店

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马尔

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呃

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搬到北卡罗来纳州夏洛特

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和她一起

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有了第一个孩子

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然后搬到拉斯维加斯

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然后结婚了

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然后开始创业

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然后有了第二个孩子

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接着在YouTube走红

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然后创建了我的私密社群

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然后有了第三个孩子

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我创立了千倍股票

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互联网公司

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在这段时间里成为最富有的1%人群之一

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对吧，你知道的

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显然所有与我相关的人

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无论是同事还是私密社群成员

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以及其他人都取得了非凡的财务成就

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我活出了完整的一生

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我像经历了一整个生命般活过了这一切

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自从我进入市场以来上帝就一直在见证

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然而在这段时间里

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想想有多少人被市场愚弄而退出

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他们卖掉了自己的股票

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如果发生了这件事

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发生了某件事

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这确实发生了对吧

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想想这整个生命都过去了

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同样的事情一遍又一遍重复

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人们再次被市场愚弄

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没错

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我进行了验证

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我说

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让我回顾过去七十年

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没错看看这过去的七十年

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标普500指数上涨

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涨幅达17000%

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在过去七十年间

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想想人们被愚弄了多少次

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你必须理解得更少

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所以

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每一次市场崩盘

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每一次市场回调都是买入时机

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每一次都是

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每一次历史新高都是买入点

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每一个中间价位都是买入机会

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你必须主动寻找机会

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不要被动等待

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有些人说

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哦

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我要等下一次崩盘

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或等待下一次回调

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不

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你不会等到

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这行不通

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我是说

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今年我已经参与

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这个游戏十八年了

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至今还没遇到一个人

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哦

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我等待崩盘

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然后买入

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结果却从未买入过

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不

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这种情况不存在

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好吧

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真正成为高手不存在这种情况

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你必须参与游戏

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必须真正参与游戏

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这个游戏里没有练习玩家

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好的

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你必须在市场上活跃

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你得每天实实在在地持续做这件事

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每年都得这样持续下去

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所以不要等待下一次崩盘

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下一次调整就要发生了对吧

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在调整或崩盘时尽可能重仓买入

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但你要随时抓住有利机会

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无论处于历史高点

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你知道股市达到历史新高后会发生什么

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在股市创下历史新高后

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接着又是历史新高再创历史新高

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连续不断的新高再新高

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这就是股市的运作方式对吧

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最终会逐渐盘整

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随后经历调整或崩盘

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然后重新收复新高

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最终再次创下历史新高

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又一次历史新高

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所以你知道的

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千万别自欺欺人

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归根结底

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很多时候人们过于自负

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觉得自己很聪明能精准择时

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以为能及时退出市场

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再重新入场

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玩转整个游戏

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就像哥们儿

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你必须放下这种自负

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在某个时刻

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认清自己并非全知

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没有人是全知的

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好的

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我已专注这个游戏十八年

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我并不聪明

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没有人是

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所以必须对自己保持现实

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明白这不可能

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坦然接受

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这没什么问题

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对吧

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你想变得富有

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还是想显得愚蠢

245
00:07:51,250 --> 00:07:52,930
因为这就是你的选择

246
00:07:52,930 --> 00:07:54,509
不幸的是你无法聪明

247
00:07:54,509 --> 00:07:55,509
以为能精准择时

248
00:07:55,509 --> 00:07:56,449
你已经失败了

249
00:07:56,529 --> 00:07:58,529
你已归入愚蠢行列

250
00:07:58,529 --> 00:07:58,769
哦

251
00:07:58,769 --> 00:07:59,569
我是一个市场

252
00:07:59,569 --> 00:08:00,649
你真蠢

253
00:08:00,649 --> 00:08:01,970
所以你想变得富有吗

254
00:08:01,970 --> 00:08:02,910
你想变得愚蠢吗

255
00:08:02,910 --> 00:08:04,009
这就是你的两个选择

256
00:08:04,009 --> 00:08:07,589
我是通过持续时间变富的

257
00:08:07,589 --> 00:08:10,170
当你遇到任何崩盘或调整时

258
00:08:10,170 --> 00:08:12,750
你最好在装船

259
00:08:14,100 --> 00:08:14,819
你想变得富有

260
00:08:14,819 --> 00:08:15,560
你就不会愚蠢

261
00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:16,639
这取决于你对吧

262
00:08:16,639 --> 00:08:17,779
我选择变得富有

263
00:08:17,779 --> 00:08:20,779
我觉得现在比愚蠢有趣多了

264
00:08:20,779 --> 00:08:21,439
你是怎么

265
00:08:21,439 --> 00:08:22,639
你专注于什么

266
00:08:22,639 --> 00:08:23,839
当你在市场中

267
00:08:23,839 --> 00:08:24,420
对吧

268
00:08:24,420 --> 00:08:25,839
你应该关注的是

269
00:08:25,839 --> 00:08:28,060
关注个股

270
00:08:28,060 --> 00:08:29,220
不要关注市场

271
00:08:29,220 --> 00:08:31,899
当前市场交易在什么价位

272
00:08:31,899 --> 00:08:33,460
特朗普在做什么

273
00:08:33,460 --> 00:08:35,250
伊朗发生了什么

274
00:08:35,250 --> 00:08:37,350
罗南发生了什么

275
00:08:37,350 --> 00:08:38,629
通胀发生了什么

276
00:08:38,629 --> 00:08:40,470
美联储发生了什么等等

277
00:08:40,470 --> 00:08:40,549
等等

278
00:08:40,549 --> 00:08:43,230
像通胀这样的事情来来去去

279
00:08:43,230 --> 00:08:44,529
通缩也会交替出现

280
00:08:44,529 --> 00:08:45,049
大多数时候

281
00:08:45,049 --> 00:08:46,809
几乎总是如此

282
00:08:46,809 --> 00:08:47,710
它将是通胀

283
00:08:47,710 --> 00:08:48,889
没错，这些会交替出现

284
00:08:48,889 --> 00:08:49,950
总统们来来去去

285
00:08:49,950 --> 00:08:51,629
国会成员来来去去

286
00:08:51,629 --> 00:08:52,409
可能缓慢变化

287
00:08:52,409 --> 00:08:53,470
但确实如此

288
00:08:53,470 --> 00:08:55,509
众议院成员来来去去

289
00:08:55,509 --> 00:08:58,509
参议院成员来来去去，所有这些今天还在

290
00:08:58,509 --> 00:08:59,129
明天就消失

291
00:09:01,330 --> 00:09:04,919
美联储其他成员来来去去对吧

292
00:09:04,919 --> 00:09:05,980
降息

293
00:09:05,980 --> 00:09:06,799
加息

294
00:09:06,799 --> 00:09:07,580
维持利率

295
00:09:07,580 --> 00:09:08,190
保持不变

296
00:09:08,190 --> 00:09:10,110
十年期收益率如何

297
00:09:10,110 --> 00:09:14,500
两年期收益率如何，两年和十年期都在波动

298
00:09:14,500 --> 00:09:16,019
关注个股

299
00:09:16,019 --> 00:09:19,379
不要试图在市场中进出操作

300
00:09:19,379 --> 00:09:21,720
这最终只会让你花掉一大笔钱

301
00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:22,500
现在

302
00:09:22,500 --> 00:09:25,549
如果你想要真正达到高水平

303
00:09:25,549 --> 00:09:26,009
你想要

304
00:09:26,009 --> 00:09:26,590
你需要帮助

305
00:09:26,590 --> 00:09:27,980
你想要我的帮助

306
00:09:27,980 --> 00:09:29,740
你想加入我的私密小组对吧

307
00:09:29,740 --> 00:09:31,100
你想完成所有课程内容

308
00:09:31,100 --> 00:09:32,779
这样你就能高水平掌握这项技能

309
00:09:32,779 --> 00:09:34,220
不要在市场中赌博

310
00:09:34,220 --> 00:09:35,139
别做傻事

311
00:09:35,139 --> 00:09:35,769
没错

312
00:09:35,769 --> 00:09:37,090
今天这里有置顶评论

313
00:09:37,090 --> 00:09:38,710
我们最后一天接收申请

314
00:09:38,710 --> 00:09:41,509
今天六月六日已加入备考小组

315
00:09:41,509 --> 00:09:42,450
六月十五日

316
00:09:42,450 --> 00:09:43,409
请记住这一点

317
00:09:43,409 --> 00:09:47,350
私密小组将长时间停止新申请

318
00:09:47,350 --> 00:09:48,730
请务必记住

319
00:09:48,730 --> 00:09:52,149
置顶评论会提醒你，让我们提升到更高水平

320
00:09:52,149 --> 00:09:52,610
好的

321
00:09:52,610 --> 00:09:53,690
接下来这个

322
00:09:53,690 --> 00:09:54,570
Md

323
00:09:54,570 --> 00:09:57,000
我考虑以什么价格卖出AMD

324
00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:58,759
我到底要以什么价卖出

325
00:09:58,759 --> 00:10:00,159
这些价格相关的问题

326
00:10:00,159 --> 00:10:04,429
因为现在我手头有数百万美元的利润

327
00:10:04,429 --> 00:10:06,070
不是股票本身的数百万美元

328
00:10:06,070 --> 00:10:08,549
此刻已有数百万美元的利润在手

329
00:10:08,549 --> 00:10:09,129
没错

330
00:10:09,129 --> 00:10:09,950
好的

331
00:10:09,950 --> 00:10:12,659
好了，新的内容来了

332
00:10:12,659 --> 00:10:13,539
这里有令人兴奋的消息

333
00:10:13,539 --> 00:10:14,759
AMD即将发布

334
00:10:14,759 --> 00:10:17,620
AMD AI光环新品

335
00:10:17,620 --> 00:10:20,509
终极AI开发者平台

336
00:10:20,509 --> 00:10:21,029
没错

337
00:10:21,029 --> 00:10:23,629
我对这款原型机有很多优秀规格

338
00:10:23,629 --> 00:10:26,350
本地部署无需云限制

339
00:10:26,350 --> 00:10:26,710
哇哦

340
00:10:26,710 --> 00:10:28,690
这真是令人兴奋的设备

341
00:10:28,690 --> 00:10:29,620
现在

342
00:10:29,620 --> 00:10:33,330
点击AMD官网查看这款产品

343
00:10:33,330 --> 00:10:35,690
了解规格并对比性能

344
00:10:35,690 --> 00:10:38,470
他们对比的第一个产品并非NVIDIA产品

345
00:10:38,470 --> 00:10:41,240
实际对比的是苹果M4 Pro

346
00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:41,919
而且

347
00:10:41,919 --> 00:10:45,019
直接指出它比苹果更好

348
00:10:45,019 --> 00:10:45,879
M4 Pro

349
00:10:45,879 --> 00:10:48,919
随后他们又对比了NVIDIA

350
00:10:48,919 --> 00:10:50,539
呃，DGX火花

351
00:10:50,539 --> 00:10:56,330
没错，证明AMD产品同样优于NVIDIA产品

352
00:10:56,330 --> 00:10:57,720
没错，这真是太令人兴奋了

353
00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:00,519
这位X平台用户深入分析细节

354
00:11:00,519 --> 00:11:03,360
关于所有这些，是AMD首席执行官丽莎·苏

355
00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:07,909
她仅用1500美元午餐盒就击败了NVIDIA4000美元的AI盒子

356
00:11:07,909 --> 00:11:09,250
她走上舞台

357
00:11:09,250 --> 00:11:14,970
一手持握并现场运行2350亿参数模型

358
00:11:14,970 --> 00:11:16,049
无需数据中心

359
00:11:16,049 --> 00:11:16,629
无需云端

360
00:11:16,629 --> 00:11:17,950
无需租赁GPU

361
00:11:17,950 --> 00:11:20,590
内部芯片超出所有人预期

362
00:11:20,590 --> 00:11:21,809
AMD崛起

363
00:11:21,809 --> 00:11:26,840
AI Max Plus 395是首个x86架构芯片

364
00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:32,109
CPU和GPU共享128GB内存

365
00:11:32,109 --> 00:11:37,720
这一设计让桌面可运行需服务器机架的模型

366
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,139
在128GB内存中

367
00:11:40,139 --> 00:11:45,039
Linux为GPU分配110GB用于上下文处理

368
00:11:45,039 --> 00:11:48,970
RTX 5900提供32GB显存

369
00:11:48,970 --> 00:11:51,570
RTX 4900提供24GB显存

370
00:11:51,570 --> 00:11:53,669
这款盒子提供超过三倍

371
00:11:53,669 --> 00:11:55,710
同类产品的性能

372
00:11:55,710 --> 00:11:56,629
体积仅

373
00:11:56,629 --> 00:11:58,159
像一本厚重平装书

374
00:11:58,159 --> 00:12:00,139
打破全场的基准测试

375
00:12:00,139 --> 00:12:05,490
这款芯片在深度推理测试中超越NVIDIA RTX 580超3倍

376
00:12:05,490 --> 00:12:07,629
在深度学习推理测试中

377
00:12:07,629 --> 00:12:09,750
1500美元午餐盒

378
00:12:09,750 --> 00:12:14,568
在真实AI任务中跑赢千元独立显卡

379
00:12:14,568 --> 00:12:19,168
NVIDIA花了十年说服世界需要他们的硬件

380
00:12:19,168 --> 00:12:24,659
AMD现在已将此方案放在桌面上，价格减半

381
00:12:24,659 --> 00:12:25,279
每个人都会

382
00:12:25,279 --> 00:12:25,639
呃

383
00:12:25,639 --> 00:12:26,820
关于科技的看法

384
00:12:26,820 --> 00:12:28,000
关于此事

385
00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,379
这是否改变游戏规则

386
00:12:29,379 --> 00:12:30,799
这难道不改变游戏规则吗

387
00:12:30,799 --> 00:12:32,220
这

388
00:12:32,659 --> 00:12:35,539
这确实是积极进展

389
00:12:35,539 --> 00:12:38,419
或不如人们说的那么积极

390
00:12:38,419 --> 00:12:40,399
大家对此会有不同看法

391
00:12:40,399 --> 00:12:42,750
我并非AI开发者

392
00:12:42,750 --> 00:12:46,440
我对科技细节也不太了解

393
00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,220
但作为科技投资者不必深入

394
00:12:49,220 --> 00:12:52,370
需足够理解现状即可

395
00:12:52,370 --> 00:12:54,710
但就当前基准测试而言

396
00:12:54,710 --> 00:12:56,350
对比特定基准测试

397
00:12:56,350 --> 00:12:58,059
以及类似这些情况

398
00:12:58,059 --> 00:13:00,759
还是让技术专家深入探讨吧

399
00:13:00,759 --> 00:13:02,200
安东尼发布了这个

400
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:03,320
这有点好笑

401
00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:04,980
没错，AMD完全被掩盖了

402
00:13:04,980 --> 00:13:05,879
英伟达啊

403
00:13:05,879 --> 00:13:08,039
但外面确实有这种说法对吧

404
00:13:08,039 --> 00:13:10,480
所以这无疑增加了兴奋感

405
00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:18,360
但我觉得他们展示这个产品的核心要点不是英伟达

406
00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:19,720
或者抱歉是AMD

407
00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:20,759
在嘲笑英伟达

408
00:13:20,759 --> 00:13:21,519
其实不是

409
00:13:21,519 --> 00:13:22,299
你知道的

410
00:13:22,299 --> 00:13:23,259
呃

411
00:13:23,259 --> 00:13:28,659
这会是AMD下一个十亿级产品吗？对吧

412
00:13:28,659 --> 00:13:30,480
这不是最大的收获

413
00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,529
最大的收获是AMD

414
00:13:33,529 --> 00:13:36,029
将在未来数月推出系列产品

415
00:13:36,029 --> 00:13:39,090
这些季度和年度我们从未见过

416
00:13:39,090 --> 00:13:39,509
但尚未出现

417
00:13:39,509 --> 00:13:45,129
这些将极大助力AMD的长期财务目标

418
00:13:45,129 --> 00:13:47,210
很多时候当你买入股票

419
00:13:47,210 --> 00:13:48,629
只关注当前产品

420
00:13:48,629 --> 00:13:50,580
公司当时所拥有的

421
00:13:50,580 --> 00:13:52,059
但对于创新驱动的公司

422
00:13:52,059 --> 00:13:53,580
像AMD这样的创新

423
00:13:53,580 --> 00:13:54,919
对了，莉萨·苏记得

424
00:13:54,919 --> 00:13:57,340
莉萨·苏十年前接手公司时

425
00:13:57,340 --> 00:13:57,960
没错

426
00:13:57,960 --> 00:13:59,399
当时股价两美元

427
00:13:59,399 --> 00:14:00,600
就像两美元的廉价酒

428
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:02,840
人们认为公司要破产了

429
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:04,299
一个无关紧要的公司

430
00:14:04,299 --> 00:14:08,779
如今成为全球最具影响力的公司之一简直难以置信

431
00:14:08,779 --> 00:14:09,580
她所取得的成就

432
00:14:09,580 --> 00:14:10,220
就是这样做到的

433
00:14:10,220 --> 00:14:11,379
靠优秀的团队

434
00:14:11,379 --> 00:14:13,720
高水平的创新

435
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:14,659
她做到了

436
00:14:14,659 --> 00:14:16,409
所以你知道的

437
00:14:16,409 --> 00:14:18,210
非常重要的一点

438
00:14:18,210 --> 00:14:19,470
大家都知道这个

439
00:14:19,470 --> 00:14:20,610
听着

440
00:14:20,850 --> 00:14:23,070
英伟达将持续推出革命性

441
00:14:23,070 --> 00:14:23,409
改变游戏规则

442
00:14:23,409 --> 00:14:24,129
显卡

443
00:14:24,129 --> 00:14:27,750
CPU和其他尚未出现的产品

444
00:14:27,750 --> 00:14:31,570
这些很可能会成为十亿级企业

445
00:14:31,570 --> 00:14:32,309
甚至

446
00:14:32,309 --> 00:14:33,710
更大规模

447
00:14:33,710 --> 00:14:38,470
这就是我从新产品展示中得到的最大启示

448
00:14:38,470 --> 00:14:39,049
好的

449
00:14:39,049 --> 00:14:41,429
另一个需要注意的点是AMD

450
00:14:41,429 --> 00:14:44,029
这是一个八百九十亿美元市值的标记

451
00:14:44,029 --> 00:14:45,409
它变得越来越大

452
00:14:45,409 --> 00:14:49,409
这意味着它对标普500指数的影响会越来越大

453
00:14:49,409 --> 00:14:50,740
以及纳斯达克指数

454
00:14:50,740 --> 00:14:52,179
随着英伟达的

455
00:14:52,179 --> 00:14:52,539
打扰一下

456
00:14:52,539 --> 00:14:53,419
随着AMD的市场

457
00:14:53,419 --> 00:14:54,340
市值持续增长对吧

458
00:14:54,340 --> 00:14:56,750
这就是数字运作的方式

459
00:14:56,750 --> 00:15:00,009
越来越多的资金将流入AMD

460
00:15:00,009 --> 00:15:02,409
随着市值不断攀升

461
00:15:02,409 --> 00:15:04,129
它所占比例越来越大

462
00:15:04,129 --> 00:15:06,340
比如一年前

463
00:15:06,340 --> 00:15:07,179
AMD曾是

464
00:15:07,179 --> 00:15:08,840
相对无关紧要的存在

465
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:13,200
在标普500指数中排队等待

466
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:14,970
但我要告诉你

467
00:15:14,970 --> 00:15:16,590
现在已不再如此

468
00:15:16,590 --> 00:15:17,289
对了

469
00:15:17,289 --> 00:15:20,950
如果这家公司市值突破万亿甚至进入万亿级

470
00:15:20,950 --> 00:15:22,009
目前

471
00:15:22,009 --> 00:15:23,070
另一个需要注意的点

472
00:15:23,070 --> 00:15:23,889
这里

473
00:15:23,889 --> 00:15:26,610
有很多人相信

474
00:15:26,610 --> 00:15:29,340
AMD将挑战英伟达的市值

475
00:15:29,340 --> 00:15:33,080
AMD的市值将与英伟达相当

476
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:34,600
我们不妨称之为

477
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:36,940
从这里开始六倍增长

478
00:15:36,940 --> 00:15:38,399
就AMD的市值而言

479
00:15:38,399 --> 00:15:39,899
迈向英伟达的领域

480
00:15:39,899 --> 00:15:41,120
达到五

481
00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:42,960
一千亿美元

482
00:15:43,340 --> 00:15:45,059
我不太盲目乐观

483
00:15:45,059 --> 00:15:48,620
我认为AMD未必能达到五万亿美元以上市值

484
00:15:48,620 --> 00:15:49,379
虽然天啊

485
00:15:49,379 --> 00:15:50,220
如果真的发生

486
00:15:50,220 --> 00:15:50,620
我将非常高兴

487
00:15:50,620 --> 00:15:51,559
AMD的市值

488
00:15:51,559 --> 00:15:55,480
但这是我的现实预测

489
00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:55,980
好的

490
00:15:55,980 --> 00:15:59,399
基于我对AMD基本面的分析

491
00:15:59,399 --> 00:16:00,299
及市盈率

492
00:16:00,299 --> 00:16:01,610
我认为股票有望达到

493
00:16:01,610 --> 00:16:05,029
我预测股价将升至1200至1600美元

494
00:16:05,029 --> 00:16:09,279
现在我的乐观预期需达到两千元以上

495
00:16:09,279 --> 00:16:10,600
之后我们可以讨论

496
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:10,879
好的

497
00:16:10,879 --> 00:16:13,639
正逐步接近英伟达级别的市值

498
00:16:13,639 --> 00:16:14,399
尚未完全达到

499
00:16:14,399 --> 00:16:15,960
但正在接近这个水平

500
00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:17,639
但我的观点是

501
00:16:17,639 --> 00:16:18,419
你明白的

502
00:16:18,419 --> 00:16:23,409
当我的价格目标在接下来几年达到1200到1600美元

503
00:16:23,409 --> 00:16:23,830
没错

504
00:16:23,830 --> 00:16:26,019
这可能在未来6到12个月内发生

505
00:16:26,019 --> 00:16:27,259
这很重要

506
00:16:27,259 --> 00:16:27,539
你知道的

507
00:16:27,539 --> 00:16:29,100
我不会等到2030年才看到

508
00:16:30,460 --> 00:16:34,019
股票价格并不一定按这种方式运作

509
00:16:34,019 --> 00:16:35,860
我试图从基本面角度分析

510
00:16:35,860 --> 00:16:36,360
比如说

511
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:37,580
这最合理的情况是

512
00:16:37,580 --> 00:16:39,240
但最合理的情况是

513
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:40,440
这并不总是会发生

514
00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,039
所以当我提到股票可能涨到1200美元

515
00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:43,919
1600美元的股价

516
00:16:43,919 --> 00:16:47,299
你会明白这可能在接下来6到12个月内发生

517
00:16:47,299 --> 00:16:49,379
英伟达或AMD可能会

518
00:16:49,379 --> 00:16:49,659
我不知道为什么

519
00:16:49,659 --> 00:16:50,059
我一直在说

520
00:16:50,059 --> 00:16:52,440
AMD可能会涨到

521
00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:53,139
你知道的

522
00:16:53,139 --> 00:16:55,399
接下来6到9个月1200美元

523
00:16:55,399 --> 00:16:56,370
12个月

524
00:16:56,370 --> 00:16:57,730
甚至在财报发布前

525
00:16:57,730 --> 00:16:59,049
因为股票市场会

526
00:16:59,049 --> 00:17:00,889
开始为未来定价

527
00:17:00,889 --> 00:17:03,110
人们开始外推数据

528
00:17:03,110 --> 00:17:04,410
开始做预测

529
00:17:04,410 --> 00:17:05,089
开始计算

530
00:17:05,089 --> 00:17:05,659
天啊

531
00:17:05,659 --> 00:17:06,898
AMD的业务增长迅猛

532
00:17:06,898 --> 00:17:07,699
他们推出了新产品

533
00:17:07,699 --> 00:17:08,219
这款新产品

534
00:17:08,219 --> 00:17:09,739
将带来这么多营收

535
00:17:09,739 --> 00:17:11,159
这么多利润率

536
00:17:11,159 --> 00:17:12,618
这么多每股收益

537
00:17:12,618 --> 00:17:14,378
开始计算一年后的数据

538
00:17:14,378 --> 00:17:14,979
两年后的数据

539
00:17:14,979 --> 00:17:15,419
三年后的数据

540
00:17:15,419 --> 00:17:16,298
然后开始分析

541
00:17:16,298 --> 00:17:16,979
天啊

542
00:17:16,979 --> 00:17:17,499
你知道的

543
00:17:17,499 --> 00:17:18,878
市值可能达到两万亿美元

544
00:17:18,878 --> 00:17:20,338
几年后可能三万亿美元

545
00:17:20,338 --> 00:17:21,828
无论具体数字如何

546
00:17:21,828 --> 00:17:23,148
这就是市场运作方式

547
00:17:23,148 --> 00:17:27,099
即使现在看AMD的市值

548
00:17:27,099 --> 00:17:28,240
8920亿美元

549
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,980
如果只看过去12个月的每股收益

550
00:17:31,980 --> 00:17:34,829
你说这不值八百九十亿美元

551
00:17:34,829 --> 00:17:36,769
过去十二个月他们的每股收益表现不佳

552
00:17:36,769 --> 00:17:37,449
绝不可能

553
00:17:37,449 --> 00:17:39,388
但他们已经在为未来定价

554
00:17:39,388 --> 00:17:42,048
考虑未来几年的数字走向

555
00:17:42,048 --> 00:17:47,799
如果实际数字比我们预期更好

556
00:17:47,799 --> 00:17:49,859
在新产品开发方面

557
00:17:49,859 --> 00:17:52,079
最终会发生什么

558
00:17:52,079 --> 00:17:56,539
股价可能会大幅上涨

559
00:17:56,539 --> 00:17:58,849
因为它会提前消化这些因素

560
00:17:58,849 --> 00:18:00,349
甚至到2028年

561
00:18:00,349 --> 00:18:02,670
2029年、2030年对吧

562
00:18:02,670 --> 00:18:03,849
这就是股票市场的运作方式

563
00:18:03,849 --> 00:18:05,490
它们大量预估未来走势

564
00:18:05,490 --> 00:18:07,509
我以前见过无数次

565
00:18:07,509 --> 00:18:10,759
现在必须明白

566
00:18:10,759 --> 00:18:12,480
AMD正处于狂欢期

567
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:13,740
没错，我知道大家

568
00:18:13,740 --> 00:18:14,039
你知道的

569
00:18:14,039 --> 00:18:14,539
我想说

570
00:18:14,539 --> 00:18:14,839
所有人

571
00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:15,160
你知道的

572
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,339
AMD投资者不想结束这场狂欢

573
00:18:17,339 --> 00:18:19,319
但有很多人嫉妒

574
00:18:19,940 --> 00:18:20,779
不仅是AMD

575
00:18:20,779 --> 00:18:21,460
还有微软

576
00:18:21,460 --> 00:18:22,420
我觉得这是另一只股票

577
00:18:22,420 --> 00:18:23,460
人们嫉妒它对吧

578
00:18:23,460 --> 00:18:24,640
它在狂欢

579
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:25,980
每天都是这样

580
00:18:25,980 --> 00:18:26,819
股价持续上涨

581
00:18:26,819 --> 00:18:27,700
看起来确实如此

582
00:18:27,700 --> 00:18:29,890
每次你说它已过顶

583
00:18:31,089 --> 00:18:31,450
你只是

584
00:18:31,450 --> 00:18:33,210
而我之前就警告过

585
00:18:33,210 --> 00:18:34,670
两周前不是说过吗

586
00:18:34,670 --> 00:18:37,209
我说AMD即将大幅下跌

587
00:18:37,209 --> 00:18:37,689
当时的情况

588
00:18:37,689 --> 00:18:38,088
股价已经

589
00:18:38,088 --> 00:18:41,308
你知道跌至四百多区间

590
00:18:41,308 --> 00:18:43,990
我说所有说AMD和微软已死的人

591
00:18:43,990 --> 00:18:45,789
我说这些股票的死亡被严重夸大

592
00:18:45,789 --> 00:18:50,039
我说这些股票可能反弹三十个百分点

593
00:18:50,039 --> 00:18:53,750
猜猜他们做了什么

594
00:18:53,750 --> 00:18:55,029
嗯

595
00:18:55,029 --> 00:18:55,750
可能反弹了三十个百分点

596
00:18:55,750 --> 00:18:56,970
从底部算起

597
00:18:56,970 --> 00:18:58,009
涨幅约二十或三十个百分点

598
00:18:58,009 --> 00:18:59,190
比如微软可能更极端

599
00:18:59,190 --> 00:19:02,069
像微软可能涨幅更大

600
00:19:02,069 --> 00:19:04,849
对，这就是发生的事情，就像人们试图...

601
00:19:04,849 --> 00:19:05,609
比如运行结束

602
00:19:05,609 --> 00:19:06,210
或者类似的情况

603
00:19:06,210 --> 00:19:07,409
就像哥们一巴掌

604
00:19:07,409 --> 00:19:08,009
你知道的

605
00:19:08,009 --> 00:19:10,288
直接给你来个新纪录，让你脸上挂不住

606
00:19:10,288 --> 00:19:12,669
然后你会说到底发生了什么...

607
00:19:12,669 --> 00:19:13,169
你知道的

608
00:19:13,169 --> 00:19:13,779
简直疯狂

609
00:19:13,779 --> 00:19:14,980
但我们正处于狂欢时代

610
00:19:14,980 --> 00:19:16,779
因为有两个特定因素

611
00:19:16,779 --> 00:19:20,349
一个是所有季度还没出现冲击

612
00:19:20,349 --> 00:19:23,700
对于d，我认为接下来两个季度会发生这种情况

613
00:19:23,700 --> 00:19:24,819
在指引方面

614
00:19:24,819 --> 00:19:27,799
我们将连续两个季度遭遇冲击和指引

615
00:19:27,799 --> 00:19:30,559
这场狂欢还没开始

616
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:32,000
记住这一点

617
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:36,180
等待下一次指引发布，再观察后续指引

618
00:19:36,180 --> 00:19:40,239
人们会问amd到底在做什么

619
00:19:40,239 --> 00:19:41,509
天啊

620
00:19:41,509 --> 00:19:42,670
我们还没看到

621
00:19:42,670 --> 00:19:44,190
emd还没出现震撼

622
00:19:44,190 --> 00:19:44,789
emd还没...

623
00:19:44,789 --> 00:19:45,190
只是...

624
00:19:45,190 --> 00:19:47,910
他们轻松超越了预期

625
00:19:47,910 --> 00:19:49,190
但我们还没全面冲击

626
00:19:49,190 --> 00:19:53,259
比如amd刚刚超出指引45亿美元

627
00:19:53,259 --> 00:19:54,479
我们还没经历

628
00:19:54,479 --> 00:19:56,269
好的两点

629
00:19:56,269 --> 00:19:58,950
现在分析师追逐战正在激烈进行

630
00:19:58,950 --> 00:19:59,710
此时此刻

631
00:19:59,710 --> 00:20:01,809
这不会停止

632
00:20:01,809 --> 00:20:03,960
很快会更极端

633
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:05,420
短期来看

634
00:20:05,420 --> 00:20:05,880
这个

635
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:06,920
这种分析师追逐

636
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:07,279
我的意思是

637
00:20:07,279 --> 00:20:07,920
短期来说

638
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,339
从现在到年底

639
00:20:09,339 --> 00:20:10,000
基本上

640
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:13,579
但让我展示这里的情况及其重要性

641
00:20:13,579 --> 00:20:13,859
好的

642
00:20:13,859 --> 00:20:14,960
听着

643
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,900
看看分析师的定价位置

644
00:20:17,900 --> 00:20:20,579
他们太激进了

645
00:20:20,579 --> 00:20:21,420
好的

646
00:20:21,420 --> 00:20:24,339
这是amd股票十二个月后的目标价

647
00:20:24,339 --> 00:20:29,710
仍有投资者给出320美元的目标价

648
00:20:29,710 --> 00:20:32,430
amd本周可能飙升至600美元

649
00:20:32,430 --> 00:20:35,319
如果它想的话

650
00:20:35,319 --> 00:20:37,359
现在你到了三点二十

651
00:20:38,048 --> 00:20:38,449
哦

652
00:20:38,449 --> 00:20:39,068
我的天啊

653
00:20:39,068 --> 00:20:40,148
谁要被解雇了

654
00:20:40,148 --> 00:20:41,690
谁会被解雇

655
00:20:41,690 --> 00:20:43,170
看看中位数价格

656
00:20:43,170 --> 00:20:44,569
我觉得大家都要被解雇

657
00:20:44,569 --> 00:20:46,869
AMD的中位数价格是五百

658
00:20:46,869 --> 00:20:48,759
我们已经超过五百了

659
00:20:48,759 --> 00:20:50,980
这周可能谈到六百

660
00:20:50,980 --> 00:20:52,960
如果股价继续上涨

661
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:54,660
你看到股价本周突破六点

662
00:20:54,660 --> 00:20:55,640
看到类似六点一六

663
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,599
大概六点一零左右

664
00:20:58,799 --> 00:21:03,680
平均五百谁要被解雇

665
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:04,799
这成问题了

666
00:21:04,799 --> 00:21:08,359
分析师必须大幅上调预测

667
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,250
当这种情况发生时

668
00:21:10,250 --> 00:21:12,430
猜猜对冲基金兴奋了

669
00:21:12,430 --> 00:21:14,210
趋势投资者兴奋了

670
00:21:14,210 --> 00:21:15,869
频繁买卖的人

671
00:21:15,869 --> 00:21:17,369
基于这些分析师建议

672
00:21:17,369 --> 00:21:20,700
很多人会兴奋起来

673
00:21:20,700 --> 00:21:23,259
进一步推高价格没错

674
00:21:23,259 --> 00:21:26,700
算法也跟着上涨

675
00:21:26,700 --> 00:21:27,859
股价也随之上涨

676
00:21:27,859 --> 00:21:29,619
这是一场大游戏

677
00:21:29,619 --> 00:21:30,079
这仅仅

678
00:21:30,079 --> 00:21:30,819
挺有趣的

679
00:21:30,819 --> 00:21:31,700
就像一场派对

680
00:21:31,700 --> 00:21:31,980
就是这样

681
00:21:31,980 --> 00:21:32,460
我大概说

682
00:21:32,460 --> 00:21:33,079
没错

683
00:21:33,079 --> 00:21:34,469
关键是

684
00:21:34,469 --> 00:21:36,969
六百六十五是最高目标价

685
00:21:36,969 --> 00:21:38,128
作为价格目标

686
00:21:38,128 --> 00:21:40,108
六百六十五

687
00:21:41,759 --> 00:21:43,559
确实有理由支持

688
00:21:43,559 --> 00:21:47,029
在财报前可能跌破六十五

689
00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:48,789
这些都不是保证

690
00:21:48,789 --> 00:21:49,450
但我觉得

691
00:21:49,450 --> 00:21:52,509
别对这股势头感到意外

692
00:21:52,509 --> 00:21:56,689
股价可能在财报前冲到六百六十五

693
00:21:56,689 --> 00:21:59,108
这意味着他们随后会大幅下调

694
00:21:59,108 --> 00:22:02,839
你谈论的股票可能前缀是七或八

695
00:22:02,839 --> 00:22:04,380
迅速发生

696
00:22:04,380 --> 00:22:06,619
记得一年前Micron股价一百美元

697
00:22:06,619 --> 00:22:12,710
现在人们抢着花一千多买这只股票

698
00:22:12,710 --> 00:22:16,509
同一只股票现在有人质疑是否该花一百

699
00:22:16,509 --> 00:22:18,269
人们却愿意花一千多

700
00:22:18,779 --> 00:22:20,099
这仅仅是以年比年为基础

701
00:22:20,099 --> 00:22:24,700
所以你以为你知道人们去年在一百多的时候没买amd

702
00:22:24,700 --> 00:22:26,940
现在他们却愿意支付六七百

703
00:22:26,940 --> 00:22:28,299
这就是股市的运作方式

704
00:22:28,299 --> 00:22:30,029
这是一场大游戏先生

705
00:22:30,029 --> 00:22:32,789
现在我们正处于这场有趣的游戏之中

706
00:22:32,789 --> 00:22:34,210
因为越是极端

707
00:22:34,210 --> 00:22:37,109
分析师们就越要争先恐后上调目标价

708
00:22:37,109 --> 00:22:38,130
上调目标价

709
00:22:38,130 --> 00:22:39,460
嗯

710
00:22:39,460 --> 00:22:42,319
接下来会发生的是很多人会等待

711
00:22:42,319 --> 00:22:45,619
我们会试图等到下一季度财报公布

712
00:22:45,619 --> 00:22:47,489
然后当他们发布震撼数据

713
00:22:47,489 --> 00:22:49,108
就必须重新评估他们的数据

714
00:22:49,108 --> 00:22:53,548
比如假设下一季度财报公布后

715
00:22:53,548 --> 00:22:55,230
假设是震撼性的指引

716
00:22:55,230 --> 00:22:56,029
接下来

717
00:22:56,029 --> 00:22:57,390
股票前面直接加上七

718
00:22:57,390 --> 00:22:58,109
天啊

719
00:22:58,109 --> 00:22:58,549
你知道吗

720
00:22:58,549 --> 00:22:59,490
这位分析师

721
00:22:59,490 --> 00:23:00,490
你将会

722
00:23:00,490 --> 00:23:04,349
你会看到分析师们纷纷给出千美元目标价

723
00:23:04,549 --> 00:23:05,710
千美元目标价

724
00:23:05,710 --> 00:23:06,849
千美元目标价

725
00:23:06,849 --> 00:23:08,230
这就足够了

726
00:23:08,230 --> 00:23:10,409
股票积累了一些动量

727
00:23:10,409 --> 00:23:14,368
股票在下一财报前冲进六七百区间

728
00:23:14,368 --> 00:23:16,589
然后你会得到震撼性指引

729
00:23:16,589 --> 00:23:18,869
情况远超预期

730
00:23:18,869 --> 00:23:19,609
所有你知道的

731
00:23:19,609 --> 00:23:20,690
我们必须调整他们的数据

732
00:23:20,690 --> 00:23:21,650
接下来

733
00:23:21,650 --> 00:23:25,828
你会看到多位分析师给出千美元以上目标价

734
00:23:25,828 --> 00:23:30,500
这突破了所有人对amd股价上限的心理防线

735
00:23:30,500 --> 00:23:32,299
类似于micron的情况

736
00:23:32,299 --> 00:23:34,339
一旦突破千美元大关

737
00:23:34,339 --> 00:23:37,960
这就是当前需要记住的

738
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:38,759
让我告诉你

739
00:23:38,759 --> 00:23:41,240
这种建立在基本面之上的炒作周期

740
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:45,638
股市中最疯狂的炒作周期

741
00:23:45,638 --> 00:23:47,849
回想当年

742
00:23:47,849 --> 00:23:49,670
像游戏驿站和amc的事件

743
00:23:49,670 --> 00:23:52,069
以及那些发生在

744
00:23:52,069 --> 00:23:54,250
比如2021年

745
00:23:54,569 --> 00:23:56,589
这些都是没有基本面支撑的

746
00:23:56,589 --> 00:23:58,750
只是基于希望与幻想

747
00:23:58,750 --> 00:23:59,609
你知道的

748
00:23:59,609 --> 00:24:01,130
我们只是要做空

749
00:24:01,130 --> 00:24:01,930
逼空他们

750
00:24:01,930 --> 00:24:03,630
最激烈的

751
00:24:05,750 --> 00:24:09,450
你见过的最强劲的股市暴涨都建立在实际基本面之上

752
00:24:09,450 --> 00:24:11,450
比如业务渠道持续向好

753
00:24:11,450 --> 00:24:15,359
而那些难以打破的炒作周期

754
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,989
因为基本面提供了支撑

755
00:24:17,989 --> 00:24:19,749
而那些则容易崩盘

756
00:24:19,749 --> 00:24:20,828
比如游戏驿站AMC

757
00:24:20,828 --> 00:24:22,449
那些多年前的疯狂案例

758
00:24:22,449 --> 00:24:23,548
那些容易崩盘

759
00:24:23,548 --> 00:24:25,640
因为缺乏基本面支撑

760
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,429
当你拥有基本面支撑时

761
00:24:28,669 --> 00:24:29,788
哦小心了

762
00:24:29,788 --> 00:24:32,929
兄弟小心了，回想过去几年

763
00:24:32,929 --> 00:24:37,140
过去几年我持有的那些飙升的股票

764
00:24:37,140 --> 00:24:40,480
我想到特斯拉，可能涨了两百倍

765
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,099
这应该是我第一个百万级利润的股票

766
00:24:44,099 --> 00:24:46,900
特斯拉当时有坚实的基本面

767
00:24:46,900 --> 00:24:48,900
这就是股价疯狂上涨的原因

768
00:24:48,900 --> 00:24:50,940
这些就像火箭般飙升

769
00:24:50,940 --> 00:24:53,859
所有人都在买入，销售数据疯狂增长

770
00:24:53,859 --> 00:24:57,190
加上太阳能业务和服务开始复苏

771
00:24:57,190 --> 00:24:57,950
简直疯狂啊

772
00:24:57,950 --> 00:25:00,630
当时基本面简直爆炸式增长

773
00:25:00,630 --> 00:25:04,490
特斯拉上演了两百倍涨幅，帕兰蒂尔

774
00:25:04,490 --> 00:25:05,369
另一个绝佳案例

775
00:25:05,369 --> 00:25:07,869
帕兰蒂尔在该股赚了两百倍

776
00:25:07,869 --> 00:25:09,509
帕兰蒂尔后来发生了什么

777
00:25:09,509 --> 00:25:14,549
帕兰蒂尔基本面因AI突破发生根本转变

778
00:25:14,549 --> 00:25:18,630
整个AI革命和志愿者项目完美契合

779
00:25:18,630 --> 00:25:20,250
抓住了这波浪潮

780
00:25:20,250 --> 00:25:21,559
天啊

781
00:25:21,559 --> 00:25:23,880
因此帕兰蒂尔股价飙升至疯狂程度

782
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,480
但基本面提供了支撑

783
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:27,420
同样道理

784
00:25:27,420 --> 00:25:28,559
我开始买入ELF股票时

785
00:25:28,559 --> 00:25:30,400
股价只有七美元

786
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:31,799
快进

787
00:25:31,799 --> 00:25:33,049
五年后

788
00:25:33,049 --> 00:25:34,130
到2024年

789
00:25:34,130 --> 00:25:36,069
已涨至两百多

790
00:25:36,069 --> 00:25:38,470
从七美元涨到两百

791
00:25:38,470 --> 00:25:38,910
此外

792
00:25:38,910 --> 00:25:41,000
ELF拥有坚实基本面

793
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,500
营收环比增长90%

794
00:25:43,500 --> 00:25:44,339
利润率

795
00:25:44,339 --> 00:25:45,619
每股收益

796
00:25:45,619 --> 00:25:50,099
一切数据都向好，品牌价值同样突出

797
00:25:50,099 --> 00:25:52,200
从七美元涨至两百

798
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:53,900
Meta同样如此

799
00:25:53,900 --> 00:25:54,680
Meta股价走势

800
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:55,880
你知道我持有股份

801
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:56,799
Meta 我有八十八股

802
00:25:56,799 --> 00:25:59,859
2022年那时我有94和93美元

803
00:25:59,859 --> 00:26:01,819
然后我的数字飙升了

804
00:26:01,819 --> 00:26:04,319
它基本面强劲上涨，这很有趣

805
00:26:04,319 --> 00:26:05,160
我们写过这个

806
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:05,539
你知道的

807
00:26:05,539 --> 00:26:10,029
显然在700多美元达到顶峰

808
00:26:10,029 --> 00:26:11,289
这就是我们现在关注的

809
00:26:11,289 --> 00:26:12,500
它具备基本面支撑

810
00:26:12,500 --> 00:26:13,980
数据正在疯狂增长

811
00:26:13,980 --> 00:26:15,140
你还没见过什么

812
00:26:15,140 --> 00:26:17,339
等你看到未来几个季度的指引

813
00:26:17,339 --> 00:26:22,130
天啊，而且它基本面匹配

814
00:26:22,130 --> 00:26:25,069
绝对畅快无比

815
00:26:25,069 --> 00:26:27,069
这些周期只是

816
00:26:27,069 --> 00:26:27,710
它们是

817
00:26:27,710 --> 00:26:28,750
它们是最佳的

818
00:26:28,750 --> 00:26:30,569
这是你见过的最好的

819
00:26:30,569 --> 00:26:34,349
当我们谈论有基本面支撑的 hype cycle

820
00:26:34,349 --> 00:26:36,159
再好不过了

821
00:26:36,159 --> 00:26:38,358
这就是五倍回报的时候

822
00:26:38,358 --> 00:26:40,878
十倍、二十倍都在股票里

823
00:26:40,878 --> 00:26:43,390
我想就是这样

824
00:26:43,390 --> 00:26:44,630
这实在太强大了

825
00:26:44,630 --> 00:26:45,609
实在太强大了

826
00:26:45,609 --> 00:26:46,589
现在

827
00:26:46,589 --> 00:26:48,630
我们聊聊我卖 AMD

828
00:26:48,630 --> 00:26:50,480
我在考虑卖 AMD 什么

829
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:51,640
我会卖掉所有股份吗

830
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:52,240
这类事情

831
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:52,480
听着

832
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,640
我看不出自己会全卖 AMD 股

833
00:26:58,640 --> 00:26:59,319
好吧

834
00:26:59,319 --> 00:27:00,900
所以某种程度上

835
00:27:00,900 --> 00:27:01,259
无论如何

836
00:27:01,259 --> 00:27:02,279
股价走势如何

837
00:27:02,279 --> 00:27:05,599
我认为我总会保留一定 AMD 股

838
00:27:05,599 --> 00:27:08,359
我们稍后会具体讨论这个数量

839
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:13,420
我肯定会考虑卖出 AMD 套现

840
00:27:13,420 --> 00:27:14,099
在未来

841
00:27:14,099 --> 00:27:17,069
我们可以说是6到24个月

842
00:27:17,069 --> 00:27:19,509
但我不会全卖掉

843
00:27:19,509 --> 00:27:22,250
因为 AMD 长期前景极佳

844
00:27:22,250 --> 00:27:23,450
对CPU的需求

845
00:27:23,450 --> 00:27:27,990
GPU及其他相关芯片的未来潜力

846
00:27:27,990 --> 00:27:30,450
不会消失

847
00:27:30,450 --> 00:27:32,990
不像某些神奇替代品

848
00:27:32,990 --> 00:27:36,190
对的，如果他们未来进军量子计算

849
00:27:36,190 --> 00:27:37,170
他们可以走这条路

850
00:27:37,170 --> 00:27:38,950
他们预计在未来几年将赚取巨额财富

851
00:27:38,950 --> 00:27:39,869
从gpu和cpu业务

852
00:27:39,869 --> 00:27:41,589
如果要进军量子计算领域

853
00:27:41,589 --> 00:27:44,740
无论哪个方向

854
00:27:45,180 --> 00:27:46,539
芯片将是未来的核心

855
00:27:46,539 --> 00:27:49,420
这只会是越来越大的需求

856
00:27:49,420 --> 00:27:51,539
AMD始终会存在

857
00:27:51,539 --> 00:27:52,500
嗯

858
00:27:52,500 --> 00:27:54,039
只要Lisa Su领导这家公司

859
00:27:54,039 --> 00:27:55,059
并且拥有创新团队

860
00:27:55,059 --> 00:27:55,380
他们确实有

861
00:27:55,380 --> 00:27:57,089
他们将走向需要的方向

862
00:27:57,089 --> 00:27:57,529
你知道的

863
00:27:57,529 --> 00:27:59,069
两年前AMD的员工

864
00:27:59,069 --> 00:28:00,670
一年前AMD的员工

865
00:28:00,670 --> 00:28:01,650
没错，AMD

866
00:28:01,650 --> 00:28:02,009
你知道的

867
00:28:02,009 --> 00:28:02,369
Lisa Su

868
00:28:02,369 --> 00:28:03,730
团队一直在幕后工作

869
00:28:03,730 --> 00:28:04,990
并完成了很多事情

870
00:28:04,990 --> 00:28:07,190
现在看到成果终于显现，我们就像

871
00:28:07,190 --> 00:28:07,829
哎呀

872
00:28:07,829 --> 00:28:10,289
我需要推出能与英伟达竞争的gpu

873
00:28:10,289 --> 00:28:13,769
cpu业务显然是他们的核心

874
00:28:13,769 --> 00:28:15,470
然后我们看到新产品发布

875
00:28:15,470 --> 00:28:16,430
就像我们刚才看到的

876
00:28:16,430 --> 00:28:16,990
这简直

877
00:28:16,990 --> 00:28:17,910
难以置信

878
00:28:17,910 --> 00:28:20,150
所以要明白

879
00:28:21,220 --> 00:28:23,559
我可能永远无法抛售所有AMD股票

880
00:28:23,559 --> 00:28:24,000
好的

881
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:28,380
我计划分阶段出售部分AMD股份

882
00:28:28,380 --> 00:28:28,859
对的

883
00:28:28,859 --> 00:28:30,759
我们将以公开股价作为参考

884
00:28:30,759 --> 00:28:34,079
这里我持有2555股AMD

885
00:28:34,079 --> 00:28:35,210
好的现在

886
00:28:35,210 --> 00:28:37,450
当然这只股票可能永远涨不到700

887
00:28:37,450 --> 00:28:38,450
可能永远达不到1000

888
00:28:38,450 --> 00:28:39,710
可能永远涨不到1500

889
00:28:39,710 --> 00:28:40,890
可能永远到不了2000

890
00:28:40,890 --> 00:28:43,920
这些都是我认为会发生的情况

891
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:45,140
这就是我的套现计划

892
00:28:45,140 --> 00:28:45,599
好的

893
00:28:45,599 --> 00:28:49,039
我认为先兑现555股

894
00:28:49,039 --> 00:28:51,819
在700价位锁定利润

895
00:28:51,819 --> 00:28:54,140
当股价达到700时

896
00:28:54,140 --> 00:28:55,829
我会卖出555股

897
00:28:55,829 --> 00:28:58,589
此时部分获利了结

898
00:28:58,589 --> 00:28:59,089
好的

899
00:28:59,089 --> 00:29:02,109
这将使我在公开账户持有2000股

900
00:29:02,109 --> 00:29:02,779
好的

901
00:29:02,779 --> 00:29:05,279
然后我会卖出另外五百股

902
00:29:05,279 --> 00:29:08,039
如果股票涨到九百价位的话

903
00:29:08,039 --> 00:29:09,210
好的

904
00:29:09,210 --> 00:29:11,450
这样我就持有了一千五百股

905
00:29:11,450 --> 00:29:16,869
然后我会在一千一百价位卖出最后五百股

906
00:29:16,869 --> 00:29:18,720
好的，接下来我打算

907
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,900
我会长期持有千股

908
00:29:21,900 --> 00:29:23,400
就在那个时间点

909
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,028
所以在那个时间点

910
00:29:25,028 --> 00:29:27,868
不管AMD股价怎么走

911
00:29:27,868 --> 00:29:29,429
我就持有这千股不动

912
00:29:29,429 --> 00:29:29,808
好的

913
00:29:29,808 --> 00:29:31,568
但我会在其他部分获利了结

914
00:29:31,568 --> 00:29:33,388
我们可以称之为一千五百五十五股

915
00:29:33,388 --> 00:29:35,109
就在那个时间点

916
00:29:35,109 --> 00:29:39,190
我觉得AMD的最佳涨幅已经过去了

917
00:29:39,190 --> 00:29:43,160
就在那个时间点，我慢慢获利了结

918
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,180
显然利润会非常巨大

919
00:29:46,180 --> 00:29:51,229
好的，这和我操作Palantir的策略很相似

920
00:29:51,229 --> 00:29:51,690
没错

921
00:29:51,690 --> 00:29:52,410
Paler

922
00:29:52,410 --> 00:29:53,569
看看我去年的情况

923
00:29:53,569 --> 00:29:54,809
我清仓了Palantir

924
00:29:54,809 --> 00:29:55,829
频繁买卖股票

925
00:29:55,829 --> 00:29:56,970
不断清仓

926
00:29:56,970 --> 00:29:59,319
在某个时间点

927
00:29:59,319 --> 00:30:02,660
我在公开账户持有五千五百五十五股Palantir

928
00:30:02,660 --> 00:30:05,200
现在我只剩下千股

929
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,079
计划长期持有

930
00:30:07,079 --> 00:30:09,380
但最终还是会卖出这些股票

931
00:30:09,380 --> 00:30:12,950
没错，我分阶段完成

932
00:30:12,950 --> 00:30:14,490
我完全没问题

933
00:30:14,490 --> 00:30:16,349
持有千股Palantir

934
00:30:16,349 --> 00:30:17,630
这就是相似策略

935
00:30:17,630 --> 00:30:19,500
我会用同样的方法操作AMD和B

936
00:30:19,500 --> 00:30:20,779
就像操作Pound ER一样

937
00:30:20,779 --> 00:30:21,599
当然

938
00:30:21,599 --> 00:30:22,140
你知道的

939
00:30:22,140 --> 00:30:23,619
可能我会被套牢

940
00:30:23,619 --> 00:30:25,220
所有二千五百五十五股

941
00:30:25,220 --> 00:30:26,460
因为从未涨到七百

942
00:30:26,460 --> 00:30:26,859
没错

943
00:30:26,859 --> 00:30:28,059
从未涨到九百

944
00:30:28,059 --> 00:30:29,589
从未涨到一千一百

945
00:30:29,589 --> 00:30:30,529
这也无所谓

946
00:30:30,529 --> 00:30:32,950
但我感觉会这样

947
00:30:32,950 --> 00:30:34,890
而且可能很快就会发生

948
00:30:34,890 --> 00:30:37,459
就像Palantir现在仍在上涨

949
00:30:37,459 --> 00:30:41,439
他们会给我大约一点的收益

950
00:30:41,439 --> 00:30:43,818
目前有五百万美元的收益

951
00:30:43,818 --> 00:30:47,210
可以说其中约四百万元将用于缴税

952
00:30:47,210 --> 00:30:47,809
大概吧

953
00:30:47,809 --> 00:30:48,170
啊

954
00:30:48,170 --> 00:30:48,730
也许不

955
00:30:48,730 --> 00:30:49,829
我可能不到这个数

956
00:30:49,829 --> 00:30:50,369
其实

957
00:30:50,369 --> 00:30:52,789
可能更多到两百五十三万

958
00:30:52,789 --> 00:30:53,509
差不多这样

959
00:30:53,509 --> 00:30:54,779
对吧嗯

960
00:30:54,779 --> 00:30:57,319
但最终大概会是约一四一

961
00:30:57,319 --> 00:30:59,460
四百万美元来自这些销售的收益

962
00:30:59,460 --> 00:31:03,338
因此市场中将有大量资金可调配

963
00:31:03,338 --> 00:31:04,699
现在请记住

964
00:31:04,699 --> 00:31:06,078
这只是公开账户

965
00:31:06,078 --> 00:31:10,449
我还加载了AMD和其他投资组合

966
00:31:10,449 --> 00:31:11,749
所以请记住这一点

967
00:31:11,749 --> 00:31:16,630
好的，现在我想讨论另一个视频内容

968
00:31:17,069 --> 00:31:18,069
我一直这么认为

969
00:31:18,069 --> 00:31:19,420
就像以前那样

970
00:31:19,420 --> 00:31:20,880
周期已经结束

971
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:25,740
比如英伟达可能涨到十万亿，成为首家十万亿公司

972
00:31:25,740 --> 00:31:31,609
所以不要认为英伟达现在的位置

973
00:31:31,609 --> 00:31:33,869
五万亿可能是所有公司的峰值

974
00:31:33,869 --> 00:31:34,930
或者类似的情况对吧

975
00:31:34,930 --> 00:31:37,900
这些里程碑本应被打破

976
00:31:37,900 --> 00:31:40,359
五万亿不必是顶点

977
00:31:40,359 --> 00:31:42,799
英伟达可能还有最后一次爆发

978
00:31:42,799 --> 00:31:45,720
最终在芯片大周期前达到十万亿

979
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,519
我们最终会经历芯片行业的大幅下行周期

980
00:31:48,519 --> 00:31:50,450
好的，如果看英伟达

981
00:31:50,450 --> 00:31:52,650
目前股价在二十几

982
00:31:52,650 --> 00:31:53,309
中二十几

983
00:31:53,309 --> 00:31:54,579
我们可以称为24

984
00:31:54,579 --> 00:31:56,460
也许22左右

985
00:31:56,460 --> 00:31:57,480
大概对吧

986
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,859
股票如何从五万亿市值涨到十万亿

987
00:32:01,859 --> 00:32:06,079
需在2026-2029年期间每股收益翻倍

988
00:32:06,079 --> 00:32:09,569
确实存在强烈讨论认为他们能做到

989
00:32:09,569 --> 00:32:10,730
如果他们能做到

990
00:32:10,730 --> 00:32:14,960
那么在周期结束前市值将达十万亿

991
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,160
这是需要记住的点

992
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:18,659
他们需实现每股收益翻倍

993
00:32:18,659 --> 00:32:21,778
期间市盈率仍保持在二十几

994
00:32:21,778 --> 00:32:25,719
这可能是投资者长期接受的水平

995
00:32:25,719 --> 00:32:26,909
现在

996
00:32:26,909 --> 00:32:28,759
我认为

997
00:32:29,079 --> 00:32:31,740
AMD股价走势大概会是

998
00:32:31,740 --> 00:32:32,119
好的

999
00:32:32,119 --> 00:32:33,480
这是我猜测

1000
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:34,660
我的猜测

1001
00:32:34,660 --> 00:32:35,079
好的

1002
00:32:35,079 --> 00:32:36,519
作为在市场中长期投资的人

1003
00:32:36,519 --> 00:32:37,420
这只是我的猜测

1004
00:32:37,420 --> 00:32:38,329
好的

1005
00:32:38,788 --> 00:32:42,429
可能在未来六到十八个月内出现顶部抛售

1006
00:32:42,429 --> 00:32:45,960
好的，它将会是

1007
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,660
这将是一种类似特斯拉发生的现象

1008
00:32:49,660 --> 00:32:50,259
好的

1009
00:32:50,259 --> 00:32:53,059
如果我们看看特斯拉

1010
00:32:53,059 --> 00:32:55,960
特斯拉在这里达到了顶部抛售点

1011
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,740
这是我2021年大量抛售股票的地方

1012
00:32:58,740 --> 00:33:00,099
股价疯狂上涨

1013
00:33:00,099 --> 00:33:01,099
嗯

1014
00:33:01,099 --> 00:33:02,279
当时真是美妙

1015
00:33:02,279 --> 00:33:04,940
接下来几年发生了什么

1016
00:33:04,940 --> 00:33:08,619
最终股价经历了长达一到两年的缓慢下跌

1017
00:33:08,619 --> 00:33:10,420
然后在一年或两年内持续震荡

1018
00:33:10,420 --> 00:33:13,680
随后逐渐复苏并最终回升至

1019
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:14,519
你知道的

1020
00:33:14,519 --> 00:33:19,200
历史新高，整个过程耗时多年

1021
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,259
这就是我对AMD的预测

1022
00:33:21,259 --> 00:33:24,789
实际上我认为AMD将在六到十八个月内出现顶部抛售

1023
00:33:24,789 --> 00:33:27,509
这将标志着股票的多年高位

1024
00:33:27,509 --> 00:33:31,849
但这不会反映营收的多年高位

1025
00:33:31,849 --> 00:33:34,210
或每股收益的多年高位

1026
00:33:34,210 --> 00:33:37,049
但将标志股价的顶部

1027
00:33:37,049 --> 00:33:41,319
好的，因为股价可能在多年前提前见顶

1028
00:33:41,319 --> 00:33:43,299
而每股收益或营收的峰值会滞后

1029
00:33:43,299 --> 00:33:45,460
好的，因为市场总是提前定价这些因素

1030
00:33:45,460 --> 00:33:47,839
尤其是备受关注的特殊股票

1031
00:33:47,839 --> 00:33:50,039
会提前数年定价未来走势

1032
00:33:50,039 --> 00:33:52,099
这也是为什么我之前提到

1033
00:33:52,099 --> 00:33:52,759
不要感到意外

1034
00:33:52,759 --> 00:33:55,940
AMD未来六到十二个月内可能涨至一千点以上

1035
00:33:55,940 --> 00:33:57,970
尽管这远超预期时间表

1036
00:33:57,970 --> 00:33:59,289
因为这就是股票市场的运作方式

1037
00:33:59,289 --> 00:34:01,109
会提前定价未来事项

1038
00:34:01,109 --> 00:34:01,950
好的

1039
00:34:01,950 --> 00:34:03,869
尤其是像这样的特殊公司

1040
00:34:03,869 --> 00:34:06,930
在六到十八个月内出现顶部抛售后

1041
00:34:06,930 --> 00:34:10,289
将经历一到两年的缓慢下跌

1042
00:34:10,610 --> 00:34:13,349
随后进入一到两年的震荡期

1043
00:34:13,349 --> 00:34:15,289
股价波动但方向不明

1044
00:34:15,289 --> 00:34:17,090
只是上下波动

1045
00:34:17,090 --> 00:34:18,590
没有显著进展

1046
00:34:18,590 --> 00:34:21,269
下一芯片周期启动后

1047
00:34:21,269 --> 00:34:26,349
股价将缓慢回升，同时可能有人认为

1048
00:34:26,349 --> 00:34:31,500
为何不能无限消费

1049
00:34:31,500 --> 00:34:32,510
嗯

1050
00:34:32,510 --> 00:34:33,829
这不可能

1051
00:34:33,829 --> 00:34:34,309
好的

1052
00:34:34,309 --> 00:34:35,670
现在事情是这样

1053
00:34:35,670 --> 00:34:36,530
所有科技巨头公司

1054
00:34:36,530 --> 00:34:37,230
正是这些公司

1055
00:34:37,230 --> 00:34:38,389
AMD和英伟达

1056
00:34:38,389 --> 00:34:40,358
这些公司的数据将飙升

1057
00:34:40,358 --> 00:34:40,898
你知道的

1058
00:34:40,898 --> 00:34:41,759
在未来几年

1059
00:34:41,759 --> 00:34:42,478
这里就是美光科技

1060
00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:45,559
这些特定公司

1061
00:34:45,789 --> 00:34:47,070
我现在已经到了

1062
00:34:47,070 --> 00:34:48,429
你不仅会继续支出

1063
00:34:48,429 --> 00:34:51,010
公司流入的现金流

1064
00:34:51,010 --> 00:34:52,449
除此之外

1065
00:34:52,449 --> 00:34:55,530
他们现在开始增发股权

1066
00:34:55,530 --> 00:34:56,070
增加债务

1067
00:34:58,110 --> 00:35:00,550
这可不是好事

1068
00:35:00,550 --> 00:35:04,269
这意味着你处于支出后期阶段

1069
00:35:04,269 --> 00:35:04,869
好的

1070
00:35:04,869 --> 00:35:08,050
当公司需要筹集五十亿美元

1071
00:35:08,050 --> 00:35:09,030
一百亿美元

1072
00:35:09,030 --> 00:35:09,989
这就意味着

1073
00:35:09,989 --> 00:35:10,679
你知道

1074
00:35:10,679 --> 00:35:11,159
天啊

1075
00:35:11,159 --> 00:35:11,539
好的

1076
00:35:11,539 --> 00:35:14,159
我们正处于这些公司支出的后期阶段

1077
00:35:14,159 --> 00:35:16,840
它们的支出失控到必须融资

1078
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:18,280
而这些是世界上财务最健康的公司

1079
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:19,239
像亚马逊

1080
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:20,260
Meta

1081
00:35:20,260 --> 00:35:20,679
对的，谷歌

1082
00:35:20,679 --> 00:35:21,179
这些公司像

1083
00:35:21,179 --> 00:35:22,239
当它们需要融资时

1084
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:23,818
就像这样

1085
00:35:23,818 --> 00:35:25,579
这就是

1086
00:35:25,579 --> 00:35:27,458
这相当严重

1087
00:35:27,458 --> 00:35:34,300
因此必须理解这些公司未来几年的增长

1088
00:35:34,300 --> 00:35:37,019
在资本支出方面将非常有限

1089
00:35:37,019 --> 00:35:39,219
相比过去几年

1090
00:35:39,219 --> 00:35:43,619
如果未来几年发生黑天鹅事件

1091
00:35:43,619 --> 00:35:44,800
这可能

1092
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:48,579
这肯定会加剧支出

1093
00:35:48,579 --> 00:35:51,639
在大幅收缩方面

1094
00:35:51,639 --> 00:35:53,079
因为黑天鹅事件

1095
00:35:53,079 --> 00:35:54,230
信用巨头

1096
00:35:54,230 --> 00:35:55,869
人们不愿再借入太多债务

1097
00:35:55,869 --> 00:35:57,630
科技巨头们说我们必须缩减

1098
00:35:57,630 --> 00:35:59,829
此时收入并不强劲

1099
00:35:59,829 --> 00:36:01,530
这是一个必须经历的完整周期

1100
00:36:01,530 --> 00:36:01,949
好的

1101
00:36:01,949 --> 00:36:03,389
所以这只是需要记住的一点

1102
00:36:03,389 --> 00:36:04,250
所以会很美好

1103
00:36:04,250 --> 00:36:06,099
比如说我不知道

1104
00:36:06,099 --> 00:36:07,739
Meta可能花了像

1105
00:36:07,739 --> 00:36:09,219
作为AMD股东你知道的

1106
00:36:09,219 --> 00:36:10,340
如果你是NVIDIA股东

1107
00:36:10,340 --> 00:36:11,420
如果你持有博通

1108
00:36:11,420 --> 00:36:12,139
不管是谁对吧

1109
00:36:12,139 --> 00:36:12,880
会很美好

1110
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,420
如果Meta今年在资本支出上投入了一百四十亿美元

1111
00:36:20,039 --> 00:36:21,400
这不可能

1112
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:22,019
这只是

1113
00:36:22,019 --> 00:36:23,739
数学上不可能

1114
00:36:23,739 --> 00:36:24,420
好的

1115
00:36:24,420 --> 00:36:27,599
所以这只是需要记住的一点

1116
00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:30,300
这就是事实对吧

1117
00:36:30,300 --> 00:36:34,510
将会有一个严重的崩盘周期发生

1118
00:36:34,510 --> 00:36:36,570
这将在

1119
00:36:36,570 --> 00:36:37,449
再次

1120
00:36:37,449 --> 00:36:43,170
崩盘周期会在营收和每股收益开始下降之前早已开始

1121
00:36:43,170 --> 00:36:44,769
所以这只是需要记住的一点

1122
00:36:44,769 --> 00:36:45,599
这纯粹是数学问题

1123
00:36:45,599 --> 00:36:46,320
这就是关键

1124
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:47,000
有时候在市场中

1125
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:47,679
很简单

1126
00:36:47,679 --> 00:36:49,039
最终回归数学

1127
00:36:49,039 --> 00:36:50,519
没错，所以你知道的

1128
00:36:50,519 --> 00:36:54,608
如果Meta、亚马逊这些公司没有疯狂支出

1129
00:36:54,608 --> 00:36:57,289
那时才能有充分的理由

1130
00:36:57,289 --> 00:36:57,489
哦

1131
00:36:57,489 --> 00:36:58,708
我们还有很长的路要走

1132
00:36:58,708 --> 00:37:01,699
但既然它们已经超支失控

1133
00:37:02,059 --> 00:37:03,119
这就是现状

1134
00:37:03,119 --> 00:37:03,780
好的

1135
00:37:03,780 --> 00:37:06,860
现在看看正在经历这个周期的股票

1136
00:37:06,860 --> 00:37:08,000
就是Palantir对吧

1137
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:08,829
Palantir

1138
00:37:08,829 --> 00:37:10,969
数据表现越来越好

1139
00:37:10,969 --> 00:37:12,070
数据简直惊人

1140
00:37:12,070 --> 00:37:15,949
纳斯达克创历史新高，看看Palantir股价

1141
00:37:15,949 --> 00:37:18,610
你知道去年这只股票曾涨至两百多

1142
00:37:18,610 --> 00:37:20,889
而在过去六到九个月

1143
00:37:20,889 --> 00:37:22,568
它已经大幅下跌

1144
00:37:22,568 --> 00:37:24,188
正处于崩盘周期

1145
00:37:24,188 --> 00:37:26,960
而数据却越来越好

1146
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:29,159
而纳斯达克却创历史新高

1147
00:37:29,159 --> 00:37:34,429
所以当Palantir的营收增速不再加快时会发生什么

1148
00:37:34,429 --> 00:37:37,369
当纳斯达克未能再创历史新高时会发生什么

1149
00:37:37,369 --> 00:37:38,269
突破所有时间新高

1150
00:37:38,269 --> 00:37:39,010
那支股票在哪里

1151
00:37:39,010 --> 00:37:39,639
会不会是

1152
00:37:39,639 --> 00:37:42,670
如果在这种环境下只能达到134点

1153
00:37:42,670 --> 00:37:45,469
当数据看起来不如预期时会发生什么

1154
00:37:45,469 --> 00:37:49,769
当纳斯达克无法每天刷新历史新高时会怎样

1155
00:37:49,769 --> 00:37:50,900
你知道的

1156
00:37:50,900 --> 00:37:54,780
因此志愿者们正在经历这一一两年的时间周期

1157
00:37:54,780 --> 00:37:56,579
就像一个恶性下跌循环

1158
00:37:56,579 --> 00:37:57,039
没错

1159
00:37:57,039 --> 00:38:00,230
这是需要记住的，AMD终将迎来机会

1160
00:38:00,230 --> 00:38:01,809
现在还不是时候

1161
00:38:01,809 --> 00:38:02,969
但终将到来

1162
00:38:02,969 --> 00:38:04,530
那一天可能在一年后

1163
00:38:04,530 --> 00:38:06,510
可能在两年后开始

1164
00:38:06,510 --> 00:38:08,170
但终会到来

1165
00:38:08,170 --> 00:38:09,489
只是现在还不是

1166
00:38:09,489 --> 00:38:10,039
没错

1167
00:38:10,039 --> 00:38:10,579
好的

1168
00:38:10,579 --> 00:38:11,079
接下来这里

1169
00:38:11,079 --> 00:38:14,710
让我们谈谈市场中的赚钱机会

1170
00:38:14,710 --> 00:38:15,750
有很多这样的机会

1171
00:38:15,750 --> 00:38:17,150
它们分布在不同领域

1172
00:38:17,150 --> 00:38:17,949
这很棒

1173
00:38:17,949 --> 00:38:18,909
覆盖不同领域

1174
00:38:18,909 --> 00:38:19,610
不同行业

1175
00:38:19,610 --> 00:38:20,230
类似这样的

1176
00:38:20,230 --> 00:38:20,809
好的

1177
00:38:20,809 --> 00:38:21,929
第一个机会

1178
00:38:21,929 --> 00:38:22,769
耐克

1179
00:38:22,769 --> 00:38:25,750
一个月内上涨约7.4%

1180
00:38:25,750 --> 00:38:26,590
4%

1181
00:38:26,590 --> 00:38:27,030
你知道的

1182
00:38:27,030 --> 00:38:30,019
显然伊朗局势趋于缓和

1183
00:38:30,019 --> 00:38:32,019
耐克已经明显显示

1184
00:38:32,019 --> 00:38:33,179
股价已见底

1185
00:38:33,179 --> 00:38:34,619
并开始上涨

1186
00:38:34,619 --> 00:38:36,079
当你谈论反转行情时

1187
00:38:36,079 --> 00:38:37,599
需要理解

1188
00:38:37,599 --> 00:38:39,610
耐克就是典型的反转股对吧

1189
00:38:39,610 --> 00:38:41,489
初期上涨阶段

1190
00:38:41,489 --> 00:38:42,449
我认为股价已见底

1191
00:38:42,449 --> 00:38:43,289
我认为是39美元

1192
00:38:43,289 --> 00:38:43,409
现在

1193
00:38:43,409 --> 00:38:44,710
已涨至45美元

1194
00:38:44,710 --> 00:38:47,070
这是较慢的走势

1195
00:38:47,070 --> 00:38:50,590
但一旦注入动力

1196
00:38:50,590 --> 00:38:51,750
发布数据后

1197
00:38:51,750 --> 00:38:53,659
出现更多积极信号

1198
00:38:54,099 --> 00:38:55,199
转眼间

1199
00:38:55,199 --> 00:38:57,519
鼓励性电话会议投资者演示

1200
00:38:57,519 --> 00:39:00,019
股票随后迅速上涨

1201
00:39:00,019 --> 00:39:01,199
所以就是这种初始状态

1202
00:39:01,199 --> 00:39:01,519
好的

1203
00:39:01,519 --> 00:39:02,760
我们见底后开始上涨

1204
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:04,440
但这是一个渐进的小幅上涨

1205
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:05,829
然后突然之间

1206
00:39:05,829 --> 00:39:07,929
你可以看到这只股票从40涨到70

1207
00:39:07,929 --> 00:39:09,130
而且涨得很快

1208
00:39:09,130 --> 00:39:10,110
嗯

1209
00:39:10,110 --> 00:39:11,610
这里需要记住这一点

1210
00:39:11,610 --> 00:39:14,590
你可以以Este Lautereste Lauder为例，在Essay Lauder中

1211
00:39:14,590 --> 00:39:15,849
非常相似的情况

1212
00:39:15,849 --> 00:39:18,179
耐克的转型投资很棒的品牌

1213
00:39:18,179 --> 00:39:22,659
但以Este Lauder为例，该股去年在40元左右见底

1214
00:39:22,659 --> 00:39:24,360
然后开始缓慢上涨

1215
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,789
随后突然大幅拉升

1216
00:39:27,789 --> 00:39:31,000
现在股价已接近90美元一股

1217
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:31,800
或大致在这个价位

1218
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:33,599
所以对耐克也要记住这一点

1219
00:39:33,599 --> 00:39:36,659
顺便说个有趣的耐克相关故事

1220
00:39:36,659 --> 00:39:38,980
我四岁的儿子刚才坐在我腿上

1221
00:39:38,980 --> 00:39:41,679
我们正在查看Thousand X的开盘屏幕

1222
00:39:41,679 --> 00:39:43,829
我的多巴胺股票列表在这里

1223
00:39:43,829 --> 00:39:46,630
他看着所有这些品牌标志

1224
00:39:46,630 --> 00:39:47,969
有一个标志

1225
00:39:47,969 --> 00:39:50,369
有一个他认出的标志

1226
00:39:50,369 --> 00:39:54,349
他说Nike Nike

1227
00:39:54,349 --> 00:39:56,170
这真是聪明

1228
00:39:56,170 --> 00:39:57,590
想想这些品牌

1229
00:39:57,590 --> 00:39:59,030
他不认识其他这些标志

1230
00:39:59,030 --> 00:40:00,909
但这个他认出来了

1231
00:40:00,909 --> 00:40:02,550
他正确说出Nike

1232
00:40:02,550 --> 00:40:04,150
我继续向下滚动

1233
00:40:04,150 --> 00:40:05,349
看看他是否知道更多

1234
00:40:05,349 --> 00:40:07,110
他看到了可口可乐

1235
00:40:07,110 --> 00:40:08,230
但他不知道是可口可乐

1236
00:40:08,230 --> 00:40:09,539
只是说饮料

1237
00:40:09,539 --> 00:40:11,679
他看到必胜客

1238
00:40:11,679 --> 00:40:12,940
但他不认识必胜客

1239
00:40:12,940 --> 00:40:14,280
但他说披萨

1240
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,300
他能将这与披萨关联

1241
00:40:16,300 --> 00:40:18,108
他将这个与饮料关联

1242
00:40:18,108 --> 00:40:20,369
然后他认识星巴克

1243
00:40:20,369 --> 00:40:20,889
看到了这个标志

1244
00:40:20,889 --> 00:40:21,769
他说星巴克

1245
00:40:21,769 --> 00:40:22,769
然后他不认识这个

1246
00:40:22,769 --> 00:40:24,849
我们经常看到德州公路餐厅

1247
00:40:24,849 --> 00:40:26,630
他说德州公路餐厅

1248
00:40:26,630 --> 00:40:28,329
然后是麦当劳

1249
00:40:28,329 --> 00:40:29,530
唐纳德的米奇

1250
00:40:29,530 --> 00:40:29,929
唐纳德的

1251
00:40:29,929 --> 00:40:30,929
他叫得没错

1252
00:40:30,929 --> 00:40:32,380
所以你明白

1253
00:40:32,380 --> 00:40:32,739
总之

1254
00:40:32,739 --> 00:40:33,860
这总是很有趣知道

1255
00:40:33,860 --> 00:40:37,380
比如公司品牌影响力有多大，问个四岁小孩

1256
00:40:37,380 --> 00:40:39,059
如果四岁小孩知道某个品牌

1257
00:40:39,059 --> 00:40:41,500
这说明品牌运营得相当成功

1258
00:40:41,500 --> 00:40:42,659
接下来

1259
00:40:42,659 --> 00:40:43,440
在这里讨论

1260
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:47,719
看看精灵又回到货架上了

1261
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:50,150
他们什么时候开始认出这个

1262
00:40:50,150 --> 00:40:53,110
这个婴儿十天卖了三十件

1263
00:40:53,110 --> 00:40:54,849
十天三十件

1264
00:40:54,849 --> 00:40:56,070
百分之三十

1265
00:40:56,070 --> 00:40:58,710
股价在十天内上涨

1266
00:40:58,710 --> 00:40:59,829
不是十个交易日

1267
00:40:59,829 --> 00:41:01,090
只是普通十天

1268
00:41:01,090 --> 00:41:02,639
这波操作太棒了

1269
00:41:02,639 --> 00:41:05,920
这对精灵来说是动量和活力

1270
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:06,760
难以置信

1271
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:07,809
没错

1272
00:41:08,289 --> 00:41:09,690
绝对难以置信

1273
00:41:09,690 --> 00:41:12,610
所以精灵在这里布局非常合理

1274
00:41:12,610 --> 00:41:13,309
嗯

1275
00:41:13,309 --> 00:41:13,829
是的

1276
00:41:13,829 --> 00:41:16,110
人们一直忽视这一点

1277
00:41:16,110 --> 00:41:19,420
另一个是 Celsius 持股公司

1278
00:41:19,420 --> 00:41:20,139
你知道的

1279
00:41:20,139 --> 00:41:21,739
这个还没开始运行

1280
00:41:21,739 --> 00:41:23,989
但我看了部分数据

1281
00:41:23,989 --> 00:41:25,869
尼尔森数据等等关于 Celsius

1282
00:41:25,869 --> 00:41:27,630
包括十一个百分点的新销量

1283
00:41:27,630 --> 00:41:31,070
九个百分点，四周平均价格上涨两%

1284
00:41:31,070 --> 00:41:31,829
五月十六日

1285
00:41:31,829 --> 00:41:33,210
这是最新数据

1286
00:41:33,210 --> 00:41:36,050
相比十二周十九个百分点涨幅

1287
00:41:36,050 --> 00:41:36,610
没错

1288
00:41:36,610 --> 00:41:39,099
这可能拖累股价

1289
00:41:39,099 --> 00:41:39,960
阿兰妮知道

1290
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:44,579
销量增长46.5%，四周平均价涨5.2%

1291
00:41:44,579 --> 00:41:45,619
看看红牛

1292
00:41:45,619 --> 00:41:47,670
销量增长1.2个百分点

1293
00:41:47,670 --> 00:41:50,650
四周平均价下降8%

1294
00:41:50,650 --> 00:41:52,199
这很有趣对吧

1295
00:41:52,199 --> 00:41:55,400
魔爪不包括三%的销量

1296
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,599
平均价上涨4.2%

1297
00:41:57,599 --> 00:42:00,039
所以魔爪现在在提价

1298
00:42:00,039 --> 00:42:04,320
魔爪零糖品牌销量飙升40%果汁

1299
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:05,739
怪物销量增长了百分之四十二

1300
00:42:05,739 --> 00:42:07,440
这些数据对怪物来说确实很强劲

1301
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,079
有些人可能认为这是对雪乐斯的竞争威胁

1302
00:42:10,079 --> 00:42:12,059
这点需要记住

1303
00:42:12,059 --> 00:42:17,980
能量饮料类目销量增长6.2%，平均价格提升0.8%

1304
00:42:17,980 --> 00:42:18,539
这表现不错

1305
00:42:18,539 --> 00:42:21,179
希望看到能量饮料整体健康增长

1306
00:42:21,179 --> 00:42:25,039
如果现在要投资怪物或雪乐斯

1307
00:42:25,039 --> 00:42:27,119
如果和可乐类比

1308
00:42:27,119 --> 00:42:27,360
没错

1309
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:31,829
看这个德雷珀销量下降1.2%

1310
00:42:31,829 --> 00:42:34,869
百事销量下滑5%

1311
00:42:34,869 --> 00:42:37,670
可口可乐销量降1.2%

1312
00:42:37,670 --> 00:42:40,210
碳酸饮料销量下降1.7%

1313
00:42:40,210 --> 00:42:41,210
这不是理想表现

1314
00:42:41,210 --> 00:42:42,409
如果看到能量饮料

1315
00:42:42,409 --> 00:42:47,460
这可不是好事啊，要记住健康品类的标准

1316
00:42:47,460 --> 00:42:50,199
与饮品品类相比

1317
00:42:50,199 --> 00:42:50,679
你知道的

1318
00:42:50,679 --> 00:42:51,900
该品类销量在萎缩

1319
00:42:51,900 --> 00:42:53,300
显然对于可乐类目

1320
00:42:53,300 --> 00:42:53,969
对吧

1321
00:42:53,969 --> 00:42:54,469
不

1322
00:42:54,469 --> 00:42:56,289
这不是好的投资机会

1323
00:42:56,289 --> 00:42:56,949
这让我心痛

1324
00:42:56,949 --> 00:42:58,269
我说出这番话很痛苦

1325
00:42:58,269 --> 00:42:58,610
哦

1326
00:42:58,610 --> 00:42:59,579
这真的让我心痛吗

1327
00:42:59,579 --> 00:43:01,400
但芝士蛋糕坊机会不大

1328
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,199
因为股价今年以来已上涨39%

1329
00:43:04,199 --> 00:43:07,000
芝士蛋糕坊今年以来涨幅超9%

1330
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:08,079
我们还没到年中

1331
00:43:08,079 --> 00:43:08,320
没错

1332
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:11,079
只是持续上涨

1333
00:43:11,079 --> 00:43:13,840
但依然构成买入理由

1334
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,349
但买入价值不如之前

1335
00:43:16,349 --> 00:43:18,469
若看芝士蛋糕坊基准预测

1336
00:43:18,469 --> 00:43:20,130
预计平均营收增长7%

1337
00:43:20,130 --> 00:43:21,269
净利润增长9%

1338
00:43:21,269 --> 00:43:24,429
股票平均市盈率22-27倍

1339
00:43:24,429 --> 00:43:28,619
未来几年股息率约14%-20%

1340
00:43:28,619 --> 00:43:29,599
仍属良好

1341
00:43:29,599 --> 00:43:30,619
仍属优质

1342
00:43:30,619 --> 00:43:34,019
芝士蛋糕仍具吸引力的风险收益比

1343
00:43:34,019 --> 00:43:37,800
但吸引力远不如从前

1344
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,619
因为股价持续上涨

1345
00:43:40,619 --> 00:43:44,170
另一个令人担忧的是芝士蛋糕坊

1346
00:43:44,170 --> 00:43:45,469
现在买入股票

1347
00:43:45,469 --> 00:43:46,150
股息收益率

1348
00:43:46,150 --> 00:43:47,469
实际收益更低

1349
00:43:47,469 --> 00:43:48,230
只有这一点

1350
00:43:48,230 --> 00:43:50,489
我刚开始买蛋糕股票时是六个百分点

1351
00:43:50,489 --> 00:43:52,639
我当时能获得3%以上的股息收益率

1352
00:43:52,639 --> 00:43:53,519
所以我研究了这只股票

1353
00:43:53,519 --> 00:43:55,480
我心想我能获得3%以上的股息收益率

1354
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:57,159
所以略低于国债收益

1355
00:43:57,159 --> 00:43:58,898
但差距并不大对吧

1356
00:43:58,898 --> 00:44:01,759
此外我还能获得疯狂的资本增值

1357
00:44:01,759 --> 00:44:03,699
我觉得这非常非常有吸引力

1358
00:44:03,699 --> 00:44:06,789
这就是为什么我在三十几美元时开始买入这只股票

1359
00:44:06,789 --> 00:44:07,170
哦

1360
00:44:07,170 --> 00:44:09,389
我的相机当时失控了

1361
00:44:09,389 --> 00:44:12,909
像ServiceNow和CRM这样的股票值得买入

1362
00:44:12,909 --> 00:44:14,789
它们有长期投资机会

1363
00:44:14,789 --> 00:44:17,860
但这些可能会有更大涨幅

1364
00:44:17,860 --> 00:44:19,440
比如27或28

1365
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:19,780
好的

1366
00:44:19,780 --> 00:44:20,820
这只是需要记住的点

1367
00:44:20,820 --> 00:44:21,280
就是这样

1368
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:22,300
我们拭目以待

1369
00:44:22,300 --> 00:44:24,108
但将会

1370
00:44:24,108 --> 00:44:30,818
我认为当芯片周期失去动能时这些股票会迎来动量

1371
00:44:30,818 --> 00:44:33,739
所以我认为会有大规模轮动

1372
00:44:33,739 --> 00:44:37,880
转向受益于芯片支出的公司如Service

1373
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:41,219
现在Salesforce与现在相比

1374
00:44:41,219 --> 00:44:43,539
没人想持有这些股票对吧

1375
00:44:43,539 --> 00:44:47,619
但最终AMD、美光的动量

1376
00:44:47,619 --> 00:44:48,280
你知道的

1377
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:49,679
博通也看到了这一点

1378
00:44:49,679 --> 00:44:51,280
所有这些股票最终会结束

1379
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,420
再次预测具体何时发生

1380
00:44:53,420 --> 00:44:54,079
三个月后

1381
00:44:54,079 --> 00:44:54,719
六个月后

1382
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:55,239
九个月后

1383
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:55,880
十二个月后

1384
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:56,679
十八个月后两

1385
00:44:56,679 --> 00:44:57,528
四个月后

1386
00:44:57,528 --> 00:44:59,268
很难准确挑选

1387
00:44:59,268 --> 00:45:00,929
精确判断动量何时停止

1388
00:45:00,929 --> 00:45:02,168
并开始消退

1389
00:45:02,168 --> 00:45:03,548
然后资金转向其他领域

1390
00:45:03,548 --> 00:45:04,048
对吧

1391
00:45:04,048 --> 00:45:05,869
但我坚信

1392
00:45:05,869 --> 00:45:07,409
当资金转向其他领域时

1393
00:45:07,409 --> 00:45:08,449
你会看到大量资金

1394
00:45:08,449 --> 00:45:13,018
涌入这些将在科技革命中大获全胜的股票

1395
00:45:13,018 --> 00:45:16,510
这又回到了Spin的核心观点

1396
00:45:16,510 --> 00:45:18,570
另一只可能是无聊的股票

1397
00:45:18,570 --> 00:45:20,409
但简直是赚钱机器

1398
00:45:20,409 --> 00:45:23,489
美国运通医疗速递

1399
00:45:23,489 --> 00:45:25,210
今天有3%的涨幅

1400
00:45:25,210 --> 00:45:27,329
股票仍下跌约10%

1401
00:45:27,329 --> 00:45:28,000
今年以来

1402
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:31,860
这是一家即将颠覆行业的公司，机会难得

1403
00:45:31,860 --> 00:45:32,440
你知道的

1404
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:36,539
人们会持续使用信用卡数年甚至数十年

1405
00:45:36,539 --> 00:45:37,400
未来的发展方向

1406
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:37,739
没错

1407
00:45:37,739 --> 00:45:38,340
这完全不

1408
00:45:38,340 --> 00:45:39,739
不这么做没道理

1409
00:45:39,739 --> 00:45:41,820
人们愿意为使用美国运通信用卡付费

1410
00:45:41,820 --> 00:45:43,820
我本人愿意为使用美国运通信用卡付费

1411
00:45:43,820 --> 00:45:46,829
因为我们能用这些信用卡获得大量返利

1412
00:45:46,829 --> 00:45:51,559
因此用美国运通卡处理财务最合理

1413
00:45:51,559 --> 00:45:52,880
我们有金卡

1414
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:53,780
我们有白金卡

1415
00:45:53,780 --> 00:45:55,239
支付费用是合理的

1416
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:59,960
我们支付的费用最终成为自身收益

1417
00:45:59,960 --> 00:46:01,400
对于大额消费者

1418
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,170
尤其是你必须拥有

1419
00:46:04,170 --> 00:46:05,389
美国运通信用卡

1420
00:46:05,389 --> 00:46:08,780
这就像必须拥有的卡片

1421
00:46:08,780 --> 00:46:09,159
你明白的

1422
00:46:09,159 --> 00:46:09,360
这

1423
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,639
这是必须拥有的最稳定信用卡

1424
00:46:11,639 --> 00:46:14,320
因此可能被视为一家乏味的公司

1425
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:15,360
但它是盈利机器

1426
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:17,380
记住这也是分红派息公司

1427
00:46:17,380 --> 00:46:18,099
但看看

1428
00:46:18,099 --> 00:46:18,699
你知道的

1429
00:46:18,699 --> 00:46:23,039
基于我对美国运通的保守预测，平均8%的营收增长

1430
00:46:23,039 --> 00:46:24,679
平均12%的净利润增长

1431
00:46:24,679 --> 00:46:25,159
没错

1432
00:46:25,159 --> 00:46:28,800
17%的净利润率，从23%到33%

1433
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:30,760
我认为这对美国运通非常合理

1434
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,929
鉴于商业模式的稳定性

1435
00:46:33,929 --> 00:46:36,250
我将获得20%以上的回报

1436
00:46:36,250 --> 00:46:38,190
可能更接近25%

1437
00:46:38,190 --> 00:46:42,380
这意味着该股未来几年将大幅超越大盘

1438
00:46:42,380 --> 00:46:46,420
因此美国运通仍是当前绝佳机会

1439
00:46:46,420 --> 00:46:47,480
如果你想投资科技巨头

1440
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:48,860
有很多机会可选

1441
00:46:48,860 --> 00:46:50,099
如Meta、亚马逊

1442
00:46:50,099 --> 00:46:54,489
但不要被这些股票的短期涨跌冲昏头脑

1443
00:46:54,489 --> 00:46:56,530
这两只股票的问题在于

1444
00:46:56,530 --> 00:46:57,969
它们正在巨额投入资金

1445
00:46:57,969 --> 00:46:58,940
好的

1446
00:46:59,260 --> 00:47:01,840
未来几年将面临严重折旧压力

1447
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:06,150
情况会恶化，且短期内不会停止投入

1448
00:47:06,150 --> 00:47:08,929
因此情况会先恶化后改善

1449
00:47:08,929 --> 00:47:11,170
关于所有这些芯片的折旧问题

1450
00:47:11,170 --> 00:47:13,769
这将在未来几年侵蚀每股收益

1451
00:47:13,769 --> 00:47:15,349
这种情况即将达到顶点

1452
00:47:15,349 --> 00:47:15,969
最终会到来的

1453
00:47:15,969 --> 00:47:18,750
所以像亚马逊这样的股票

1454
00:47:18,750 --> 00:47:20,849
这是一个十年级的投资良机

1455
00:47:20,849 --> 00:47:23,230
但如果你指望它在未来六到十二个月内上涨

1456
00:47:23,230 --> 00:47:24,469
你可能会这么想

1457
00:47:24,469 --> 00:47:26,309
但不要抱太大希望

1458
00:47:26,309 --> 00:47:27,389
比如我

1459
00:47:27,389 --> 00:47:30,219
我是Meta和亚马逊的大仓位持有者

1460
00:47:30,219 --> 00:47:33,280
我不指望这些股票在未来一年内有表现

1461
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:33,619
完全没有

1462
00:47:34,699 --> 00:47:36,969
我甚至不期待1%的涨幅

1463
00:47:36,969 --> 00:47:39,909
甚至可能出现市场大幅下跌的场景

1464
00:47:39,909 --> 00:47:43,838
Meta跌至三百美元，亚马逊跌破两百

1465
00:47:43,838 --> 00:47:45,860
如果市场真的大幅恶化

1466
00:47:45,860 --> 00:47:46,980
所以请记住

1467
00:47:46,980 --> 00:47:47,900
就像你知道的

1468
00:47:47,900 --> 00:47:49,400
它们能否持续强劲上涨

1469
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:50,679
短期内有可能

1470
00:47:50,679 --> 00:47:52,059
但我不会依赖这一点

1471
00:47:52,059 --> 00:47:54,739
这些都是十年级的投资机会

1472
00:47:54,739 --> 00:47:57,000
但如果你只是押注未来十二个月

1473
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,719
这完全是一场赌博

1474
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:01,159
这完全像抛硬币赌

1475
00:48:01,159 --> 00:48:03,519
这些股票未来十二个月涨跌

1476
00:48:03,519 --> 00:48:05,000
由于巨额开支

1477
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:07,239
人们不会真正愿意买入这些股票

1478
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:09,369
现在就感到寒意

1479
00:48:09,369 --> 00:48:10,250
女士们先生们

1480
00:48:10,250 --> 00:48:11,349
有很多事情在发生

1481
00:48:11,349 --> 00:48:12,110
到底发生了什么

1482
00:48:12,110 --> 00:48:12,690
我跑了

1483
00:48:12,690 --> 00:48:14,030
石油价格怎么了

1484
00:48:14,030 --> 00:48:15,349
美联储有什么动向

1485
00:48:15,349 --> 00:48:16,190
等等等等

1486
00:48:16,190 --> 00:48:17,340
专注于长期

1487
00:48:17,340 --> 00:48:18,440
其余都是今天存在

1488
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:19,099
明天消失

1489
00:48:19,099 --> 00:48:19,420
好的

1490
00:48:19,420 --> 00:48:20,239
专注于长期

1491
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:21,099
构建你的投资组合

1492
00:48:21,099 --> 00:48:21,619
积累你的财富

1493
00:48:21,619 --> 00:48:23,260
继续滚动前进

1494
00:48:23,260 --> 00:48:26,150
如果你想加入我的预选股票群组申请

1495
00:48:26,150 --> 00:48:27,769
我们停止接受申请

1496
00:48:27,769 --> 00:48:29,670
将于六月二十六日加入预选群

1497
00:48:29,670 --> 00:48:30,150
好的

1498
00:48:30,150 --> 00:48:32,269
这就是最后加入我们的机会

1499
00:48:32,269 --> 00:48:33,230
一旦你加入我们在这里

1500
00:48:33,230 --> 00:48:34,510
我们将发送你的钢制会员卡

1501
00:48:34,510 --> 00:48:35,510
一张私人团体卡

1502
00:48:35,510 --> 00:48:38,150
同时也会寄送一张千x卡到你家

1503
00:48:38,150 --> 00:48:40,550
我们将发送你的终身会员卡

1504
00:48:40,550 --> 00:48:41,250
黑卡

1505
00:48:41,250 --> 00:48:42,809
如果你选择终身加入我们

1506
00:48:42,809 --> 00:48:45,380
然后我们会送你精美的

1507
00:48:45,659 --> 00:48:46,400
哦

1508
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:47,780
一千个xbox

1509
00:48:47,780 --> 00:48:48,099
哦

1510
00:48:48,099 --> 00:48:49,519
这简直难以置信

1511
00:48:49,519 --> 00:48:51,179
但这是当你加入我们在这里时

1512
00:48:51,179 --> 00:48:51,300
好的

1513
00:48:51,300 --> 00:48:52,559
那将是下方的置顶评论

1514
00:48:52,559 --> 00:48:54,179
祝好，度过美好一天

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