【ARK Invest】Big Ideas 2026: 大加速时代已经到来

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大家好，欢迎来到Arv的宏大构想

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2026年深度解析

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我是Brett Went，首席未来学家

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我现在将从第4张幻灯片开始

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标题为'伟大的加速进程'

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本部分及整个演示的核心论点

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是人工智能是核心引擎

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这个加速运转的魔法轮盘

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你知道的

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我们聚焦的五大创新平台

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并点燃新的宏观经济增长时代

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嗯

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五大主要创新平台包括人工智能、公链

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机器人技术

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储能系统和多组学

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这些技术平台正经历急剧成本下降

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跨行业渗透

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并作为基础支撑其他创新构建

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你可以看到我们当前关注的创新领域

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我们今天聚焦的技术领域

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在人工智能方面

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是神经网络

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智能设备和下一代

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云计算与机器人

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是人形机器人

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可重复使用火箭及能源存储专用机器人

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是自动驾驶技术

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分布式能源发电与先进电池技术

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在公链领域

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是加密货币

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智能合约和数字钱包

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在多组学领域

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是多组学技术

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核心测序技术

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精准疗法与可编程生物学

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嗯

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右侧可视化展示了这些技术如何相互连接并催化增长

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彼此之间

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嗯

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后者半叶2025年

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可重复使用火箭将发送芯片

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这些芯片也为特斯拉自动驾驶车辆供电进入轨道

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你知道的

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下一代云技术

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这是神经网络运行和扩展所需的基础

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你知道的

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同样

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你知道的

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多组学数据将存储在

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嗯

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数字钱包

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然后将被用来嗯

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训练神经网络以更好地理解生物数据

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并帮助推动精准疗法的发展

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因此这些技术日益互联并加速发展

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实际上

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如果你观察

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呃

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我们进行了一项称为收敛评分的评估

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以评估某项技术有多大可能促进

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催化另一技术的增长

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以及我们应预期其将催化多少增长

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呃

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这一趋势随着时间推移而增强

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这在下方可视化呈现

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实际上按年度计算

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网络密度每年增长3-5%

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可以将其视为技术相互增强的程度

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若观察右侧

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基于创新平台

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你知道的

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机器人技术增长最为显著

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其次是神经网络

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和人工智能

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正如我所述这是最重要技术

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人工智能发展如此迅速

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正是为何

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呃

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整个技术周期正在快速加速

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因为它作为所有创新平台的原料

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所以嗯

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这是一个例子

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你知道的

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一种新的融合案例

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我们认为这将显著提升底层技术需求

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所以嗯

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发射搭载计算机芯片的高空卫星

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以提供

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人工智能训练与推理

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我们认为这将

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你知道的

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具备成本竞争力且实际上

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甚至可能

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在单位成本上优于地面数据中心建设

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思考方式应类似

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所有地面数据中心的材料

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不包括芯片

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相反

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将其封装至卫星

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无需处理土地使用权谈判

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你知道的

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在该特定区域获得运营许可

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或者找到

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将天然气输送到该区域并购买天然气涡轮机为工厂供电

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实际上全部由太阳能供电

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并且它存在于太空

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因此我们认为在该假设下具有成本竞争力

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鉴于现有的人工智能计算需求规模

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与我们之前的预期相比

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相对于SpaceX为其星链计划所需发射的规模

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我们认为可能需求会增加六十倍

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其可重复使用火箭核心技术的需求

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这里有一个例子，神经网络对令牌的需求正在推动

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下一代云和SpaceX通过满足这一需求可能带来

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其底层技术需求可能增加六十倍

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嗯

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所以你知道的

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所有这些加速正在推动数据中心之间前所未有的历史性投资周期

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软件

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你知道的

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机器人

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出租车

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然后到2030年代的人形机器人

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我们认为对底层基础资产的投资

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将推动技术发展并超越任何历史时期

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甚至追溯到铁路时代

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其中

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你知道的

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修建铁路消耗了大量

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或贡献了当时GDP的很大一部分

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因此当技术

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当颠覆性技术进入经济

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实际上会带来四种宏观经济加速效应

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首先加速资本形成

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我的意思是

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我指的是

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资金投入构建底层基础设施

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需要使用该技术

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这就是数据中心的投资

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以及将运行于企业的软件

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并学习如何在企业中运营

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这包括

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你知道的

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购买成为自动驾驶

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出租车的车辆

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在技术引入之前

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这些资本可能处于现金状态

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看看大型科技公司

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大型科技公司的资产负债表

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它们持有大量现金

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他们正在意识到

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哦，为了竞争

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我们必须建造这些数据中心

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好的

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一旦引入资本

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如果这项技术确实具有变革性

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你应该获得相对于之前更高的资本回报率

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因此数据中心，我们相信这是正确的

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将带来更好的投资回报率

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它们将产生更多现金

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相对于投入金额，无论是所有者还是宏观经济层面

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比以往所能获得的更高

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因此奠定经济增长的基础

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然后通过这一基础获得的回报会改善，其中部分改善来自

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将非市场活动

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转化为市场活动

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嗯

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你可以看到右侧

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我们正在展示自动驾驶出租车如何融入这一框架

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在整个

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美国

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嗯

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我们手动驾驶消耗了大量时间

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未被计入GDP的隐含工资超过4万亿美元

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驾驶行为并未被GDP认可

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如果提供自动驾驶出租车

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人们不会支付原本作为工资的全部费用

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嗯，为了驾驶

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但会以折扣价换取这项服务

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接送他们出行

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因此将从

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嗯

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未被认可的隐含工资

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嗯

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转化为被GDP认可的价值

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最终还能利用这段时间

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因为无需支付全额工资

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乘坐自动驾驶出租车的人将获得更多可利用时间

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他们可以以全额工资工作

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因此具有经济生产力

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或者观看Netflix

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他们很可能这样做

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这也具有宏观经济生产力

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同样

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当你不看Netflix时

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意味着你支付了Netflix费用

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因此

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你知道的

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用时间和金钱做其他事情

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为了让这一点更具体

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这里有一个

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这里有一个具体例子说明颠覆性技术如何影响这里的科技领域

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我们正在观察单个机器人层面

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左边展示的是当前的情况

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现在对于居住在美国的房主来说

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美国平均而言

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他们需要支付两万六千美元给上门服务人员

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比如电工或保洁人员

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或者你懂的

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像来修理橱柜的 handyman 这样的人

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他们在房屋上做了大量工作

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事实上

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如果计算他们所做工作的隐含劳动成本

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以全美平均工资计算约为六万五千美元

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美国居民每年进行的未被支付的工作量

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他们只是为了维持房屋而进行这些工作

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如果向该家庭引入一个类人机器人

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嗯

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你知道的

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我们认为这能节省大量劳动力时间

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人们会为此支付高价

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事实上

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如果将成本分摊到机器人五年的使用寿命

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我们预计他们会每年支付约两万美元获取机器人使用权

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你可以认为他们不再需要汽车

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因为他们会被自动驾驶出租车接送

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因此他们会购买这个机器人

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所以然后

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机器人将完成原本由人力完成的工作

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嗯

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由

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家庭成员和

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由他们自身的工作

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机器人运行成本（电费和维护）为三千六百美元

235
00:09:40,879 --> 00:09:41,440
嗯

236
00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:44,259
房主愿意支付

237
00:09:44,259 --> 00:09:44,950
嗯

238
00:09:44,950 --> 00:09:49,889
免费劳动力时间价值约为三万美元

239
00:09:49,889 --> 00:09:52,730
然后还有其他工作

240
00:09:52,730 --> 00:09:56,750
否则无法由机器人完成

241
00:09:56,750 --> 00:09:57,350
即

242
00:09:57,350 --> 00:09:59,669
否则房主不会完成的工作

243
00:09:59,669 --> 00:10:02,839
想象一下混乱的袜子抽屉

244
00:10:02,839 --> 00:10:04,958
未打扫的地板

245
00:10:04,958 --> 00:10:05,479
嗯

246
00:10:05,479 --> 00:10:07,139
这部分价值七千美元

247
00:10:07,139 --> 00:10:09,078
因此最终

248
00:10:09,078 --> 00:10:09,649
得到

249
00:10:09,649 --> 00:10:13,690
嗯

250
00:10:13,690 --> 00:10:16,620
每个类人机器人每年为经济贡献六十万美元并计入GDP

251
00:10:16,620 --> 00:10:19,740
此前只有两千六百人出现

252
00:10:19,740 --> 00:10:23,769
还有类似劳动力时间的因素

253
00:10:23,769 --> 00:10:24,350
呃

254
00:10:24,350 --> 00:10:26,450
闲暇时间的价值

255
00:10:26,450 --> 00:10:27,009
在何处

256
00:10:27,009 --> 00:10:27,370
嗯

257
00:10:27,370 --> 00:10:29,830
你可以看Netflix而不是打扫

258
00:10:29,830 --> 00:10:31,549
家庭管理更加有序

259
00:10:31,549 --> 00:10:32,610
所以感觉更好

260
00:10:32,610 --> 00:10:33,690
或许更健康

261
00:10:33,690 --> 00:10:34,889
因为环境更整洁

262
00:10:34,889 --> 00:10:37,889
更容易找到那双袜子

263
00:10:37,889 --> 00:10:41,820
你在准备那个销售演讲

264
00:10:41,820 --> 00:10:42,600
你将会做到

265
00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:43,500
呃 所以

266
00:10:43,500 --> 00:10:43,980
嗯

267
00:10:43,980 --> 00:10:44,500
有点像

268
00:10:44,500 --> 00:10:47,179
还有其他未被统计的盈余

269
00:10:47,179 --> 00:10:52,179
但GDP增长超过三十倍

270
00:10:52,179 --> 00:10:54,740
仅针对单个类人机器人

271
00:10:54,740 --> 00:10:55,419
呃

272
00:10:55,419 --> 00:10:56,490
所以啊

273
00:10:56,490 --> 00:10:59,710
如果要在市场中渗透

274
00:10:59,710 --> 00:11:05,519
从零到八十%渗透率跨越五年的商业周期

275
00:11:05,519 --> 00:11:10,340
这将使GDP增速从2-3%提升至5%

276
00:11:10,340 --> 00:11:10,840
六

277
00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:12,360
年均六%

278
00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:13,659
水平

279
00:11:13,659 --> 00:11:15,659
嗯 并且

280
00:11:15,659 --> 00:11:16,019
你知道的

281
00:11:16,019 --> 00:11:16,860
总体而言

282
00:11:16,860 --> 00:11:20,230
这些技术的涌入符合历史规律

283
00:11:20,230 --> 00:11:24,399
我们认为将改变GDP增长的均衡水平

284
00:11:24,399 --> 00:11:26,559
实际上在本十年后半段

285
00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:30,190
我们预计实际增长将超七%

286
00:11:30,190 --> 00:11:34,879
相比过去一百二十五年约三%增速

287
00:11:34,879 --> 00:11:35,399
嗯

288
00:11:35,399 --> 00:11:37,480
在之前的科技时期

289
00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:39,309
增长结构更低

290
00:11:39,309 --> 00:11:40,490
这意味着什么

291
00:11:40,490 --> 00:11:43,049
意味着所有人都会更富有

292
00:11:43,049 --> 00:11:43,809
这太棒了

293
00:11:43,809 --> 00:11:44,309
嗯

294
00:11:44,309 --> 00:11:45,769
这意味着

295
00:11:45,769 --> 00:11:46,169
嗯

296
00:11:46,169 --> 00:11:53,309
并且由我们今天看到的AI等技术驱动

297
00:11:53,309 --> 00:11:53,990
公共领域

298
00:11:53,990 --> 00:11:54,629
区块链

299
00:11:54,629 --> 00:11:55,210
机器人技术

300
00:11:55,210 --> 00:11:56,610
能源存储与多组学

301
00:11:56,610 --> 00:12:00,929
所有这些都促成了这一转变与成长

302
00:12:00,929 --> 00:12:02,068
你知道的

303
00:12:02,068 --> 00:12:04,369
市场将跟随宏观经济趋势

304
00:12:04,369 --> 00:12:05,308
但在我们深入之前

305
00:12:05,308 --> 00:12:06,609
人们常常问

306
00:12:06,609 --> 00:12:07,908
量子计算怎么办

307
00:12:07,908 --> 00:12:08,889
核聚变呢

308
00:12:08,889 --> 00:12:09,369
你知道的

309
00:12:09,369 --> 00:12:11,500
存在一些引人注目的技术

310
00:12:11,500 --> 00:12:12,019
嗯

311
00:12:12,019 --> 00:12:15,169
未来某个时候它们可能会颠覆行业

312
00:12:15,169 --> 00:12:17,429
但我们所做的研究表明

313
00:12:17,429 --> 00:12:20,090
至少在量子计算和燃料电池领域

314
00:12:20,090 --> 00:12:22,490
以及核聚变能源领域这还不

315
00:12:22,490 --> 00:12:24,629
时机尚未成熟

316
00:12:24,629 --> 00:12:27,779
颠覆性技术需要成本大幅下降

317
00:12:27,779 --> 00:12:32,279
跨多个领域的单位经济效益证明其吸引力

318
00:12:32,279 --> 00:12:38,669
这使它们能够实现商业化并规模化，成为技术创新的平台

319
00:12:38,669 --> 00:12:42,360
量子计算的成本下降其实较为温和

320
00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:42,779
我的意思是

321
00:12:42,779 --> 00:12:47,399
谷歌领先企业在四年间将量子比特数量翻倍

322
00:12:47,399 --> 00:12:50,940
即使假设其加速遵循摩尔定律

323
00:12:50,940 --> 00:12:56,789
我们认为量子计算的重大应用破解RSA加密

324
00:12:56,789 --> 00:12:58,960
将在2040年代中期才出现

325
00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:00,059
更可能的是

326
00:13:00,059 --> 00:13:01,919
即使加速到

327
00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:02,480
你知道的

328
00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,259
每三年翻一番

329
00:13:04,259 --> 00:13:07,220
预计也要到2050年代才能实现

330
00:13:07,220 --> 00:13:10,049
现在到2044年之间会发生很多事情

331
00:13:10,049 --> 00:13:10,690
对我们而言

332
00:13:10,690 --> 00:13:13,070
从投资角度看并不具吸引力

333
00:13:13,070 --> 00:13:16,009
但仍有大量技术值得关注

334
00:13:16,009 --> 00:13:20,509
正如我说的你知道宏观经济增长将

335
00:13:20,509 --> 00:13:21,070
嗯

336
00:13:21,070 --> 00:13:21,629
在我们看来

337
00:13:21,629 --> 00:13:22,470
收益率

338
00:13:22,470 --> 00:13:24,759
市场增值

339
00:13:24,759 --> 00:13:32,509
因此若观察创新企业市值与非创新企业市值的历史对比

340
00:13:32,509 --> 00:13:36,860
如左图所示

341
00:13:36,860 --> 00:13:39,059
你知道我们经历了一段

342
00:13:39,059 --> 00:13:39,779
嗯

343
00:13:39,779 --> 00:13:42,629
转折期

344
00:13:42,629 --> 00:13:44,590
创新与增长的转折点

345
00:13:44,590 --> 00:13:46,549
我们认为这将持续加速

346
00:13:46,549 --> 00:13:48,809
从2015年到2020年

347
00:13:48,809 --> 00:13:49,450
嗯

348
00:13:49,450 --> 00:13:51,279
创新复合增长率达18%

349
00:13:51,279 --> 00:13:53,279
2020年到2025年

350
00:13:53,279 --> 00:13:54,259
20%

351
00:13:54,259 --> 00:13:56,460
我们认为这将会加速

352
00:13:56,460 --> 00:14:02,619
随着这些技术在长期内带来更具意义的经济增长边际份额

353
00:14:02,619 --> 00:14:06,839
相比之下可能是非创新企业的市值

354
00:14:06,839 --> 00:14:10,360
所有指数中的 incumbent 公司

355
00:14:13,250 --> 00:14:17,889
想象一个加速发展的时期

356
00:14:17,889 --> 00:14:18,669
GDP

357
00:14:18,669 --> 00:14:21,750
有一组公司正在积累巨额

358
00:14:21,750 --> 00:14:23,169
嗯嗯

359
00:14:23,169 --> 00:14:24,529
企业价值

360
00:14:24,529 --> 00:14:27,870
如果你没有成功进行创新布局

361
00:14:27,870 --> 00:14:30,629
你的投资组合将产生负回报

362
00:14:30,629 --> 00:14:31,509
这简直是个噩梦

363
00:14:31,509 --> 00:14:35,830
我认为每个人都需要确保积极接触创新

364
00:14:35,830 --> 00:14:37,049
以有意义的方式

365
00:14:37,049 --> 00:14:40,190
鉴于我们处于技术周期的节点

366
00:14:40,190 --> 00:14:41,649
你可以看到右侧

367
00:14:41,649 --> 00:14:42,909
我们认为在

368
00:14:42,909 --> 00:14:43,509
你知道的

369
00:14:43,509 --> 00:14:44,769
加密货币嗯

370
00:14:44,769 --> 00:14:46,729
以及私有和公开市场

371
00:14:46,729 --> 00:14:52,820
创新将占据全球市值超过60%

372
00:14:52,820 --> 00:14:54,639
据我们预测到2030年

373
00:14:54,639 --> 00:14:59,679
虽然这听起来可能令人难以置信且极端巨大

374
00:14:59,679 --> 00:15:03,639
这符合我们对各项技术的基础模型

375
00:15:03,639 --> 00:15:04,940
以及它们的加速发展

376
00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:06,120
这也符合

377
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:06,620
你知道的

378
00:15:06,620 --> 00:15:07,759
历史时间框架

379
00:15:07,759 --> 00:15:10,460
在重大投资和创新爆发期间

380
00:15:10,460 --> 00:15:10,720
实际上

381
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:12,279
如果回溯到1870年

382
00:15:12,279 --> 00:15:17,720
铁路占股权市值超过60%份额

383
00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:19,200
在十九世纪末

384
00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:26,600
因为铁路运输引发了大规模资本投资并带来高于正常回报

385
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,059
由于铁路出行效率极高

386
00:15:29,059 --> 00:15:30,039
它

387
00:15:30,039 --> 00:15:31,519
使得

388
00:15:31,519 --> 00:15:32,080
你知道的

389
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,139
非市场活动

390
00:15:34,139 --> 00:15:34,679
嗯

391
00:15:34,679 --> 00:15:35,220
你知道的

392
00:15:35,220 --> 00:15:37,200
不得不步行或骑马出行

393
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:41,139
转变为可计量的经济活动

394
00:15:41,139 --> 00:15:44,809
并释放人们时间进行更高效的工作

395
00:15:44,809 --> 00:15:49,350
并成为其他创新的基础平台

396
00:15:49,350 --> 00:15:52,169
西部开发很大程度依赖铁路

397
00:15:52,169 --> 00:15:57,980
未来世界的构建将依赖我们所认为的

398
00:16:03,759 --> 00:16:09,090
这就是对核心理念的深入探讨

399
00:16:09,090 --> 00:16:13,110
来自Arc Invest的强劲加速阶段

400
00:16:13,110 --> 00:16:14,659
希望你喜欢这个内容

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