买股票重点看商业模式

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今天给大家聊一期关于商业模式的打造啊

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这个也是很多兄弟做投资做生意的时候一定绕不过去的

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就什么的商业模式是好的

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商业模式躺着赚钱的

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如果用赚钱角度来衡量的话

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那跑着赚钱呢就是刺激的商业模式

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那贵的不赚钱呢绝对是极差的商业模式

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哪些商是哪些商业模式是躺着赚钱的呢

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第一呢就是垄断的啊

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不论是技术垄断

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品牌

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薪资垄断啊

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还是资源垄断

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那垄断呢你像国内的话

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新资垄断的就是茅台

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苹果啊

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包括腾讯的垄断还是新的垄断啊

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大家想起来最好的酒

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白酒最好是烈酒啊

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一定是茅台啊

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所以说茅台呢是世界第一大废酒公司

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那第二个呢就是这种技术垄断

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你像纳德七姐妹里面啊

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无论是啊英伟达呀

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台积电啊对吧

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还是特斯拉的FSD啊

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还是谷歌啊

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谷歌这家公司其实还蛮优秀的啊

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基本上你能够想到的技术在美国都可以用

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谷歌在美国它属于一统江湖啊

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基本上来讲你如果说嗯用有一个谷歌邮箱的话

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基本上美国所有的账号啊

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任何平台的你都可以直接登啊

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这一点的话比国内省事太多了

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对美国的这些科技企业呢

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它的垄断的强度啊

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就堪比国内的这些啊煤啊

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石油啊

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基本上这样的大闸蟹也妹

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他们的市值基本上占了美股的三十十%了

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所以说在美国呢纳里蟹妹呢其实啊一旦暴跌的时候

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真的是千载难逢的机会啊

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那第二种呢就是跑着赚钱的

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跑着赚钱呢

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就我们国内来讲哈

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有一定的品牌力啊

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有一定的技术

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但是呢没有那么好啊

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你比如说像美帝啊

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比如再比如说像传销电力啊

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再比如说啊像宁德时代

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他们呢是有一定的技术啊

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有一定的品牌性质

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但是呢他不是躺着赚钱

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因为他负债率很高啊

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他又有些负债是吧

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他要不断的去投入研发啊

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他种植产完

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而且呢他要不断的去啊去按照这个行业的规模去投入竞争啊

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无论是小米

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华为都是二流的商业模式

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因为你的利润很低吧

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大家看一下这个同样做生产和品牌啊

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你比如说台积电净利润39%啊

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你看一下这个华为的净利润不到10%

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小米的啊不到8%啊

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宁德时代的啊

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美的呢它基本上8~10之间

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实际上你从这个净利润里面你可以看出来

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就是如果说你的毛利很高啊

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但是你的净利润很低啊

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这种企业呢基本上是属于跑着赚钱是吧

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然后规模很大

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嘿但是呢投入非常非常大

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那第三个模式呢就是跪着赚钱啊

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贵州赚钱的基本上代工厂啊

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你看果链啊

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英伟达链啊

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去年的话英伟达链长的很好啊

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易中天啊

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红盛科技啊啊果链的话

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你像这个打高尔政权啊

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打绿取金币啊

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这企业呢它就是有苹果订单很赚钱啊

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苹果呢不砍价很赚钱

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但是但凡是苹果一砍价呢就非常不赚钱

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你同样都代工厂

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你看下台积电位是39个点利润啊

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同样做这个呃半导体啊

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你看一下这个镁光啊哈然后西部数据啊啊包括三星海力士呀

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他为什么能赚1000亿美金

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实际上就是还是一个巨头互通问题

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同样做代工

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代工厂和代工厂不一样啊

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啊同样做品牌

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品牌和品牌也不一样啊

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同样做生产

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生产和生产不一样

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所以说就是同样的这种商业模式下

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不同的国家也不一样

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比如说做零售业

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你看一下美国的沃尔玛

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Costco

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它就属于1~2流之间的商业模式

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就它介于躺着赚钱和躺着赚钱之间啊

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为什么呢

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因为在美国呢

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cos和沃尔玛呢基本上也属于垄断的

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美国的商业业态和中国不太一样啊

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大家一定要明白这一点啊

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就是美国的商业业态呢它有个特点

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就是它是地域性的垄断

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咱举个例子啊

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比如说你今天有个骚尘暴啊

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这个地方呢有个有一个有了COSTCO

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还有了沃尔玛

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但是呢你就不能开第二家

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也不能开第三家

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就是还有一个相对垄断地位啊

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包括cos和沃尔玛他们的这种啊

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无论是规模啊

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无论是连锁啊

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无论是这个啊消消费者的心智

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它有它的垄断性

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其实美国的超市和中国的超市最主要区别是什么呢

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就是就是自主品牌

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美国的超市

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比如说沃尔玛

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Costco

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还有一半以上的产品呢都属于它超出自己的品牌啊

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你甚至来讲亚马逊收购的号父子啊

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薅夫子

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那就是里面60%到80都是自主品牌

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我前两天专门去调研薅夫子里面的所有的保健品啊

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日用品啊

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百货全是

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所以你从这个地方看

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就是美国的超时系统

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临时系统他为什么做得好

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就是因为供应链在自己手里边

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就品牌在手里

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供应链在自己手里

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所以他又延续了这个优势

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但是中国目前的操作系统呢

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它没有能力啊

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或者说没有没有这种推广的基因啊

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就是他过去的时候他赚钱

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他就是靠这种啊差价模式啊

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就是收的是排位费啊

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然后收的是那种啊

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呃就是厂家入场费啊是吧

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还有柜台费啊

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各种各样的啊

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课间杂税

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像宫本市民当时是收30%多

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因为原来我们在步步高的时候啊

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专攻这个连锁卖场啊

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家具卖场直接收30%多

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所以呢国内的这种连锁公司啊

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连锁品牌呢它没有形成这种自主品牌的原因呢

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就是他过去赚钱太舒服

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他这种压榨式的啊

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地盘式的思维呢导致了他现在真的带制动品章做的太少了

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所以前两天拼多多说出来他要做好啊啊就是新批母的时候呢

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他这个方向绝对是对的

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对就是就是你如果说你要是想成为COSTCO啊

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沃尔玛这种真正的联合巨头

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你首先你就要做自主品牌

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但是呢你要考虑一点

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就是拼多多能不能做成啊

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这就是他未来商业模式

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商业模式转变的根本啊

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如果说那啊拼多多哈做成了这种啊COSMO这种品牌

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那它的估值肯定不是现在的估值了

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但最大的难点是什么呢

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就是你做成合着做还是两码事啊

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因为京东也做过哈

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京东有京照啊

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网易呢有网易严选是吧

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国内的这种平台呢很多啊

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想做做品牌的

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但是呢最终都没有怎么做成

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包括王烟选

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现在一年的话啊

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大概有个啊就是15C的规模

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实际来讲

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如果按照他现在零售规模的话

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其实网银行的利润也不高

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肯定是个位数的利润对

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但为什么这个沃尔玛COSTCO能够做到利润很稳定呢

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是因为它的商业模式

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它不仅仅是这种商品差价啊

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他变成了会员制

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他这种会员制才是他商业模式估值的估值的根本原因啊

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你比如说那cos o的续费率95%

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那95%续费率的

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他可以把它的毛利全部给打掉对吧

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就他成本加进成本加粗

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然后量极大

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他这种护城河呢4000多个SKU啊

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构成了一个数百亿美金的销售额的这种护城河呢

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一般的品牌是很难做到的

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所以实际上现在超市做品牌呢核心的点在于什么

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就是你必须要有强大的销售能力啊

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强大的采购能力啊

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极致的成本能力

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然后呢还要形成强大的消费者信信任基础

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所以说拼多多的新品姆他能不能成功的核心在于说它的品牌力薪

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还有薪资的问题

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就是他这家公司的流量成本很低是吧

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然后呢这个有钱啊也很赚钱啊

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全球布局也很好

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但他目前缺点是什么呢

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就是他的这种信任程度对吧

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当然了

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你这种也不排除就是啊随着他这个产业链的深挖

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它慢慢的有可能啊

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它慢慢的形成了很多品类的品牌啊

219
00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:11,000
像cos狗一样啊

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就做4000SKU啊

221
00:07:12,519 --> 00:07:14,939
他这种销量是有可能还能做起来的

222
00:07:14,939 --> 00:07:15,980
但是呢问题哪来

223
00:07:15,980 --> 00:07:19,269
就是像这种消费品牌的难点在于说你得长期是吧

224
00:07:19,269 --> 00:07:20,629
你要cos o y嘛啊

225
00:07:20,629 --> 00:07:22,689
他是几十年如一日的这么做下去

226
00:07:22,689 --> 00:07:24,410
但是如果说对吧

227
00:07:24,410 --> 00:07:25,370
你要是半途而废

228
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或者说像那种啊京东的京造一样

229
00:07:27,949 --> 00:07:29,660
如果不能做到对吧

230
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长时间坚持有可能是半途而废的

231
00:07:32,199 --> 00:07:34,240
所以实际上你把这个商业模式搞明白之后呢

232
00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,279
你发现商业模式它是可以变化的啊

233
00:07:36,279 --> 00:07:38,199
商业模式也不局限于说当下啊

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00:07:38,199 --> 00:07:40,089
它随着这种时间的推移啊

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供应链的沉淀

236
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他有可能把一个很差的商业模式变成很好的商业模式啊

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就像cos沃尔玛最好的案例

238
00:07:45,500 --> 00:07:47,259
所以呢商业模式你也要动态来看啊

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每过个一两年要重新评估一次

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00:07:48,879 --> 00:07:53,459
因为任何的啊科技的变化都会影响这家企业的这种估值模型

241
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所以你包括现在啊AAZ出来之后啊

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open cl它形成了入口

243
00:07:57,379 --> 00:07:59,189
那会不会对将来的对吧

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这些科技公司形成这种威胁呢也是有可能的

245
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所以商业模式本质呢一定是变化中去验证和和和对比

246
00:08:07,290 --> 00:08:10,740
这才是一个啊商业模式的对比的核心啊

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