BV1HM7F6UE5h · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,180 --> 00:00:03,180 哎呦不直播了 2 00:00:15,699 --> 00:00:18,179 背景音乐啊 3 00:00:37,500 --> 00:00:39,060 好看吧帅吧 4 00:00:39,060 --> 00:00:43,039 差不多冬至一早一晚还是有雨 5 00:00:43,039 --> 00:00:48,439 当初的坚持现已令你很怀疑 6 00:00:48,439 --> 00:00:53,880 很怀疑你最未等到只有这呼气 7 00:00:54,740 --> 00:00:56,460 ♪ 苦恋几多次 ♪ 8 00:00:56,460 --> 00:00:57,579 ♪ 悉心栽种 ♪ 9 00:00:57,579 --> 00:01:02,340 全力灌注所得竟不如别后辈 10 00:01:02,340 --> 00:01:03,979 ♪ 收成时 ♪ 11 00:01:03,979 --> 00:01:08,780 ♪ 这一次你真的很介意 ♪ 12 00:01:08,780 --> 00:01:13,379 ♪ 但见旁人谈情何引诱 ♪ 13 00:01:13,379 --> 00:01:17,329 ♪ 问到何时葡萄先熟透 ♪ 14 00:01:17,329 --> 00:01:21,090 ♪ 你要静候再静候 ♪ 15 00:01:21,090 --> 00:01:22,530 ♪ 就算失收 ♪ 16 00:01:22,530 --> 00:01:24,340 ♪ 始终要守 ♪ 17 00:01:26,459 --> 00:01:34,159 ♪ 日后尽量别教今天的泪白流留低 ♪ 18 00:01:34,159 --> 00:01:37,040 ♪ 击伤你的石头 ♪ 19 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,890 ♪ 从草里吸收哭 ♪ 20 00:01:40,890 --> 00:01:45,109 ♪ 也许丰收月份尚未到 ♪ 21 00:01:45,109 --> 00:01:47,759 ♪ 你也得接受 ♪ 22 00:01:47,759 --> 00:01:49,918 ♪ 或者要到 ♪ 23 00:01:49,918 --> 00:01:55,260 ♪ 你将爱又成存走时机 ♪ 24 00:01:55,260 --> 00:01:57,819 ♪ 先至熟透 ♪ 25 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:13,860 ♪ 未来怎么爱 ♪ 26 00:02:13,860 --> 00:02:16,020 ♪ 可惜书里从没记载 ♪ 27 00:02:16,020 --> 00:02:17,719 ♪ 终于摸出来 ♪ 28 00:02:17,719 --> 00:02:21,030 ♪ 但岁月却不回来 ♪ 29 00:02:21,250 --> 00:02:22,750 ♪ 不回来 ♪ 30 00:02:22,750 --> 00:02:24,409 ♪ 错过了春天 ♪ 31 00:02:24,409 --> 00:02:29,189 ♪ 可会再花开1000种恋爱 ♪ 32 00:02:29,189 --> 00:02:31,389 ♪ 一些需要情泪灌溉 ♪ 33 00:02:31,389 --> 00:02:33,050 ♪ 枯萎的温柔 ♪ 34 00:02:33,050 --> 00:02:36,539 ♪ 在最后会将回来 ♪ 35 00:02:36,539 --> 00:02:41,300 ♪ 错的爱乃必经的配菜 ♪ 36 00:02:41,300 --> 00:02:45,819 ♪ 但见旁人谈情何引诱 ♪ 37 00:02:45,819 --> 00:02:49,759 ♪ 问到何时葡萄先熟透 ♪ 38 00:02:49,759 --> 00:02:53,479 ♪ 你要静候再静候 ♪ 39 00:02:53,479 --> 00:02:55,099 ♪ 就算失收 ♪ 40 00:02:55,099 --> 00:02:57,319 ♪ 始终要守 ♪ 41 00:02:58,599 --> 00:03:06,300 ♪ 日后尽量别教今天的泪白流留低 ♪ 42 00:03:06,300 --> 00:03:09,139 ♪ 击伤你的石头 ♪ 43 00:03:09,139 --> 00:03:12,808 ♪ 从窗里吸收苦 ♪ 44 00:03:12,808 --> 00:03:17,128 ♪ 也许丰收月份尚未到 ♪ 45 00:03:17,128 --> 00:03:19,860 你也得接受 46 00:03:19,860 --> 00:03:21,900 ♪ 或者要到 ♪ 47 00:03:21,900 --> 00:03:27,210 ♪ 你将爱酿成渗透自己 ♪ 48 00:03:27,210 --> 00:03:29,710 ♪ 先知熟透 ♪ 49 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:41,250 ♪ 想想天的一边亦有个某某在等候 ♪ 50 00:03:44,588 --> 00:03:46,669 ♪ 噢噢耶耶 ♪ 51 00:03:48,028 --> 00:03:52,389 ♪ 一生只等葡萄熟透 ♪ 52 00:03:53,430 --> 00:03:57,780 今天是会走哦 53 00:03:57,780 --> 00:04:00,719 毕业的第一次直播哦 54 00:04:02,724 --> 00:04:06,310 ♪ 别让寂寞害你 ♪ 55 00:04:06,310 --> 00:04:09,490 ♪ 伤得一夜白头 ♪ 56 00:04:09,889 --> 00:04:16,899 ♪ 赢得不需要的自由和最耀眼伤口 ♪ 57 00:04:16,899 --> 00:04:24,158 ♪ 到我知日后路上或没有更美的邂逅 ♪ 58 00:04:24,158 --> 00:04:30,279 ♪ 但当你智慧都酝酿成红酒 ♪ 59 00:04:30,759 --> 00:04:34,079 仍可一醉自救 60 00:04:36,579 --> 00:04:39,540 ♪ 谁都心酸过 ♪ 61 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,160 ♪ 和哪个没有 ♪ 62 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,399 今天哎今天来的人不多啊 63 00:05:01,759 --> 00:05:03,439 长太丑了 64 00:05:04,069 --> 00:05:07,509 就把他们吓跑了是吧 65 00:05:16,319 --> 00:05:19,300 ♪ 或许实不信没大雕 ♪ 66 00:05:19,300 --> 00:05:22,120 不过有时间 67 00:05:23,420 --> 00:05:25,839 够我没有后顾 68 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:29,339 ♪ 野性贪玩 ♪ 69 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,100 ♪ 十眼也七岁时 ♪ 70 00:05:33,100 --> 00:05:34,060 ♪ 日无多 ♪ 71 00:05:34,060 --> 00:05:34,480 ♪ 方 ♪ 72 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:35,720 不敢当 73 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,889 我们混乱中9.50啊 74 00:05:39,889 --> 00:05:40,810 不不不不 75 00:05:40,810 --> 00:05:42,538 9.05分 76 00:05:42,538 --> 00:05:43,598 脱点衣服 77 00:05:43,598 --> 00:05:44,699 零五分再来 78 00:05:46,019 --> 00:05:51,889 ♪ 茫茫身边应该有已尽有我的美酒 ♪ 79 00:05:51,889 --> 00:05:57,000 ♪ 跑车相机金表也讲究 ♪ 80 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:01,660 ♪ 直到世间个个也妒忌 ♪ 81 00:06:01,660 --> 00:06:05,920 ♪ 仍不怎么富有用 ♪ 82 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:07,560 ♪ 我尚有换 ♪ 83 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:08,779 ♪ 我没有 ♪ 84 00:06:08,779 --> 00:06:11,860 ♪ 其实已用尽所拥有 ♪ 85 00:06:11,860 --> 00:06:18,879 ♪ 曾付出几多心跳来换取一堆堆的发 ♪ 86 00:06:18,879 --> 00:06:23,699 我谢谢得命中减少几秒 87 00:06:23,699 --> 00:06:26,288 我们零五分开始 88 00:06:26,288 --> 00:06:29,899 OK我们0505分开始了 89 00:06:29,899 --> 00:06:33,500 ♪ 而皮肤竟偷偷松了 ♪ 90 00:06:33,500 --> 00:06:37,990 ♪ 为何用到尽了戒指那样紧 ♪ 91 00:06:48,079 --> 00:06:49,680 这边不是那个抖音 92 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:57,439 不是某抖劳力是无止境 93 00:06:57,439 --> 00:06:59,000 ♪ 活着多好 ♪ 94 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,920 ♪ 不需要靠木星 ♪ 95 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:08,480 也不以高薪高职高给粉放转镜 96 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,220 我们领就是我们零五分 97 00:07:11,220 --> 00:07:16,579 吻着那地位和萧邦的闪影 98 00:07:17,100 --> 00:07:18,680 ♪ 卖了任性 ♪ 99 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:20,379 ♪ 日拼夜拼 ♪ 100 00:07:20,379 --> 00:07:30,899 ♪ 忘掉了为什么高兴曾付出几多心跳来换取一堆堆的发酵 ♪ 101 00:07:30,899 --> 00:07:35,300 ♪ 人值得命中减少几秒 ♪ 102 00:07:35,300 --> 00:07:38,129 ♪ 多买一只表 ♪ 103 00:07:38,810 --> 00:07:41,519 你好你好你好你好 104 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:45,139 ♪ 而皮肤竟偷偷送了 ♪ 105 00:07:45,139 --> 00:07:49,600 ♪ 为何用到尽了即止那样假 ♪ 106 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:56,408 ♪ 等你可以记住那关于光阴的教训 ♪ 107 00:07:56,408 --> 00:07:57,788 ♪ 回头走 ♪ 108 00:07:57,788 --> 00:07:59,228 ♪ 天已暗 ♪ 109 00:07:59,228 --> 00:08:03,459 ♪ 你献出了十寸时和分 ♪ 110 00:08:03,899 --> 00:08:07,060 ♪ 可有换到十寸金 ♪ 111 00:08:10,259 --> 00:08:17,120 还剩低几多心跳人面具零五分零五分开始 112 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:21,819 零五分开始也分不了 113 00:08:21,819 --> 00:08:28,399 得到的是看今天很多都在都在玩呢 114 00:08:28,399 --> 00:08:30,060 很多朋友都在玩呢 115 00:08:30,060 --> 00:08:33,708 现在现在预约了挺多人的 116 00:08:34,908 --> 00:08:38,308 还不少同学迟到了 117 00:08:38,708 --> 00:08:42,429 ♪ 人或金都不紧要 ♪ 118 00:08:42,429 --> 00:08:45,490 ♪ 谁做己心一样了 ♪ 119 00:08:45,490 --> 00:08:47,149 ♪ 计划了照做了 ♪ 120 00:08:47,149 --> 00:08:51,169 ♪ 得到了时间却太少 ♪ 121 00:08:53,210 --> 00:08:55,850 ♪ 还剩低几多 ♪ 122 00:08:55,850 --> 00:08:58,250 心跳还在手 123 00:08:58,250 --> 00:09:00,690 ♪ 赶不及了 ♪ 124 00:09:02,089 --> 00:09:04,969 有什么问题可以打在评论区 125 00:09:04,969 --> 00:09:06,960 我都会看 126 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:13,000 在时计里看破一生 127 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,360 ♪ 未知开始要系本意 ♪ 128 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:25,120 ♪ 大家都不过是温知 ♪ 129 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:27,039 ♪ 面对世界繁俗 ♪ 130 00:10:27,039 --> 00:10:30,080 ♪ 痴痴情爱记野求奇餐 ♪ 131 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:31,460 ♪ 胆怯梦想 ♪ 132 00:10:31,460 --> 00:10:33,409 ♪ 素番神最便宜 ♪ 133 00:10:33,409 --> 00:10:38,470 什么都医生谈中医神哥本声渐麻 134 00:10:38,990 --> 00:10:44,960 无视着医生后千树荫那吹风弹掉眼 135 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:47,720 ♪ 幻想系装置体抱纸 ♪ 136 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:49,659 ♪ 什么什么事 ♪ 137 00:10:49,659 --> 00:10:52,799 这首歌结束完之后就就什么呀 138 00:10:52,799 --> 00:10:56,159 就就开始无期无时 139 00:10:56,159 --> 00:10:58,620 你们你们有问题直接发就行 140 00:10:58,620 --> 00:11:10,059 ♪ 前把千根彩化作全部播过展放心苦恼事大多火声更大荡 ♪ 141 00:11:10,059 --> 00:11:12,539 ♪ 系讽刺孤独 ♪ 142 00:11:12,539 --> 00:11:15,720 ♪ 苦尽挡弹使 ♪ 143 00:11:59,179 --> 00:12:03,120 ♪ 如果呼吸能凑终点太早些 ♪ 144 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:04,139 ♪ 当份已老 ♪ 145 00:12:04,139 --> 00:12:05,559 天长情 146 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,759 ♪ 凑净凝成一叠 ♪ 147 00:12:07,759 --> 00:12:09,740 随着放假行冷 148 00:12:09,740 --> 00:12:13,139 ♪ 公司有16个红大一只 ♪ 149 00:12:13,139 --> 00:12:16,600 ♪ 那个星仔笑大声点极大 ♪ 150 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:21,769 ♪ 知麻来当街晚故事 ♪ 151 00:12:21,769 --> 00:12:24,610 ♪ 树荫下吹风太吊演 ♪ 152 00:12:24,610 --> 00:12:27,349 ♪ 幻想系装饰太复纸 ♪ 153 00:12:27,349 --> 00:12:29,928 ♪ 什么什么都小意思 ♪ 154 00:12:29,928 --> 00:12:33,440 OK开始我无言静止 155 00:12:36,159 --> 00:12:37,980 Ok ok ok ok ok 156 00:12:37,980 --> 00:12:40,279 先看一下问题 157 00:12:43,820 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaks spx 158 00:12:50,799 --> 00:12:55,220 你嗯因为space你看一下 159 00:12:55,220 --> 00:13:01,169 就是space这几天换手率超级高 160 00:13:01,169 --> 00:13:03,480 这个SPX 161 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:08,440 现在他发行价是135块钱 162 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,159 第一天是150块钱 163 00:13:11,159 --> 00:13:13,740 现在是185块钱 164 00:13:14,850 --> 00:13:18,169 就相当于如果如果你是做杠杆的 165 00:13:18,169 --> 00:13:20,590 包括扩挖对吧 166 00:13:20,590 --> 00:13:21,970 还是两倍做多啊 167 00:13:21,970 --> 00:13:24,230 这种你要遇到一个问题 168 00:13:24,230 --> 00:13:25,350 就是它会震荡 169 00:13:26,350 --> 00:13:27,830 就是它会震荡 170 00:13:28,870 --> 00:13:29,830 一旦震荡之后 171 00:13:29,830 --> 00:13:32,414 你的损耗就有点受不了了 172 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:38,100 你的损耗你你就因为这个基数效应损耗就有人受不了了 173 00:13:38,100 --> 00:13:40,759 这就是杠杆的产品的弊端 174 00:13:40,759 --> 00:13:46,289 然后说一下space space这个 175 00:13:48,820 --> 00:13:52,990 我我个人是觉得还有炒作空间哦 176 00:13:53,269 --> 00:13:57,429 因为最重要的就决定SPX能不能炒的 177 00:13:57,429 --> 00:14:00,129 并不是space这家公司怎么样 178 00:14:00,129 --> 00:14:01,700 其实就是炒作 179 00:14:01,700 --> 00:14:04,399 他是看整体流通股有多少 180 00:14:04,399 --> 00:14:06,879 因为流通股很少的话 181 00:14:06,879 --> 00:14:09,320 那吵起来就很很容易 182 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:12,059 当然你要就是炒的呢 183 00:14:12,059 --> 00:14:13,860 得看时间 184 00:14:14,340 --> 00:14:19,860 就是如果一旦很靠近解禁期的时候 185 00:14:19,860 --> 00:14:21,080 就不要吵了 186 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:25,500 对而且如果AI走的特别强势的话 187 00:14:25,500 --> 00:14:26,480 也不要吵了 188 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:31,288 资金没有这个理由去去炒space 189 00:14:31,288 --> 00:14:34,249 完全可以去炒SKI立式嘛 190 00:14:34,549 --> 00:14:41,159 SK海力士的炒作空间不是要比这个space要强多了嘛对吧 191 00:14:41,159 --> 00:14:47,480 然后大盘走势后续怎么看大盘大势啧 192 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,360 唉谁看大盘 193 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:51,340 现在现在没人看大盘 194 00:14:51,340 --> 00:14:56,179 现在是主要主要是喜欢看费半嗯 195 00:14:56,179 --> 00:14:58,860 大盘其实费半走不好 196 00:14:58,860 --> 00:14:59,580 大盘不行 197 00:15:00,820 --> 00:15:02,279 主要看费半 198 00:15:02,519 --> 00:15:06,320 然后美光的财报之前 199 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:12,080 要不要把那个DM的call给平仓掉 200 00:15:13,429 --> 00:15:16,289 得看你的call的时间多少 201 00:15:16,289 --> 00:15:20,730 因为你的call的时间是在明年啊 202 00:15:20,730 --> 00:15:22,269 明年1月份不行哈 203 00:15:22,269 --> 00:15:25,809 明年的6月份或者是28年1月份 204 00:15:25,809 --> 00:15:28,210 那就哦那就无所谓 205 00:15:28,210 --> 00:15:29,539 那也无所谓 206 00:15:29,539 --> 00:15:36,340 因为整个半导体哪怕因为这个财报跌下去 207 00:15:36,340 --> 00:15:39,279 只要他的核心叙事没有问题 208 00:15:39,279 --> 00:15:43,840 他照样就是逢低必买的一个时间时机 209 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:45,639 当然什么样的根基 210 00:15:45,639 --> 00:15:47,100 半导体为什么要长 211 00:15:47,100 --> 00:15:48,399 它的根是什么 212 00:15:48,399 --> 00:15:52,259 就是因为云厂商的KPEX呃 213 00:15:52,259 --> 00:15:53,240 资本支出 214 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,340 第二个也是最重要的啊 215 00:15:55,340 --> 00:15:58,659 第二个就是unforfeit OpenAI 216 00:15:58,659 --> 00:16:00,740 他的收入怎么样 217 00:16:00,740 --> 00:16:07,120 就一旦在下游厂商出现了嗯 218 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:15,860 支出放缓或者是收入大模型厂商出现收入放缓的任何的迹象 219 00:16:15,860 --> 00:16:18,159 都是必须要什么 220 00:16:18,159 --> 00:16:19,909 必须要走 221 00:16:19,909 --> 00:16:21,710 最起码得走一半 222 00:16:21,710 --> 00:16:25,429 半导体的仓位就是AI的仓位 223 00:16:26,519 --> 00:16:34,299 这就是支撑着半导体走的这么狠的一个时机点时间点 224 00:16:34,700 --> 00:16:40,039 然后space要不要两倍做多啊 225 00:16:40,039 --> 00:16:43,039 现在的浮亏20%要死扛吗 226 00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:45,409 不要死扛对吧 227 00:16:45,409 --> 00:16:46,649 你死扛得了 228 00:16:46,649 --> 00:16:48,250 这一次的话你死扛不了 229 00:16:48,250 --> 00:16:51,940 第二下一次的没必要死扛 230 00:16:52,139 --> 00:16:53,100 没必要死扛 231 00:16:54,940 --> 00:16:56,389 你可以做一些 232 00:16:56,389 --> 00:16:58,129 你可以切换正骨啊 233 00:16:58,129 --> 00:16:59,750 或者怎么样不要死扛 234 00:16:59,750 --> 00:17:02,100 因为死扛太他怎么样 235 00:17:02,100 --> 00:17:04,259 你死扛扛得住几次啊 236 00:17:04,259 --> 00:17:05,619 你扛得住这一次之后 237 00:17:05,619 --> 00:17:07,759 你下一次你扛得住吗 238 00:17:07,759 --> 00:17:13,200 未必SK海力士ADR行 239 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:20,778 对我个人是觉得凯力士的炒作空间要比4SPX要大多了 240 00:17:20,778 --> 00:17:25,398 大特别多大特特别特别多 241 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:30,140 现在的海力士七倍的PE1对吧 242 00:17:30,140 --> 00:17:30,799 我看一下 243 00:17:30,799 --> 00:17:32,119 我看一下 244 00:17:33,210 --> 00:17:35,430 现在的海力士是多少 245 00:17:35,430 --> 00:17:36,670 叫大力士 246 00:17:36,670 --> 00:17:38,109 现在不叫海力士了 247 00:17:38,109 --> 00:17:41,910 海力士的都有点侮辱的他了 248 00:17:41,910 --> 00:17:44,250 叫大力士 249 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:52,960 现在的我有 250 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:58,559 也找不着了 251 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,660 应该是七七倍左右对吧 252 00:18:04,660 --> 00:18:07,759 允期的市盈率就七倍左右 253 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:09,759 炒作空间很大 254 00:18:09,759 --> 00:18:12,329 炒作空间特别特别大 255 00:18:12,329 --> 00:18:15,849 海力士你还不如炒海力士呢对吧 256 00:18:15,849 --> 00:18:17,450 你还不如炒海力士呢 257 00:18:18,650 --> 00:18:26,099 就现在不知道大家有没有就是就感觉到就是半导体它会分化的 258 00:18:26,099 --> 00:18:27,640 它里面也会分化的 259 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:29,319 光肯定是最弱的 260 00:18:29,319 --> 00:18:31,380 存储最长强的 261 00:18:31,380 --> 00:18:35,619 然后到呃先进封装的两个巨头 262 00:18:35,619 --> 00:18:37,039 一个是阿斯麦 263 00:18:37,039 --> 00:18:39,039 就是晶圆制造呀 264 00:18:39,039 --> 00:18:40,909 阿斯麦还有一个台积电 265 00:18:40,909 --> 00:18:42,429 这两个走的最好的 266 00:18:42,429 --> 00:18:44,888 然后其次就到那些光了 267 00:18:44,888 --> 00:18:47,410 但是你别盯着那一个是吧 268 00:18:47,410 --> 00:18:51,069 别盯着那一个呃 269 00:18:51,390 --> 00:18:52,609 迈威尔看吧 270 00:18:52,609 --> 00:18:55,650 你看一下那一个COHR对吧 271 00:19:00,170 --> 00:19:04,569 看一下那一个LITE对吧 272 00:19:04,569 --> 00:19:06,410 都一样 273 00:19:08,039 --> 00:19:14,680 对所以现在你会发现哎呀这个有我存储 274 00:19:15,900 --> 00:19:21,380 一天不打不涨个200%分之三 275 00:19:22,219 --> 00:19:26,038 这感觉就是就像没涨一样是吧 276 00:19:26,038 --> 00:19:29,730 就我不知道大家有没有买存储的同学 277 00:19:29,730 --> 00:19:32,970 有没有买那种正宗存储的 278 00:19:32,970 --> 00:19:36,930 就是直接就在券商里面 279 00:19:36,930 --> 00:19:46,619 我们不可以直接在平台里面去做那些要不要 280 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:55,680 因为你的存储它有它有一个叫做估值太低了 281 00:19:55,680 --> 00:20:01,109 所以呢市场只要稍微忘记了它的周期性 282 00:20:01,109 --> 00:20:06,869 他就可以资金就疯了一样往前往上面怼 283 00:20:07,230 --> 00:20:09,630 疯了也要往上面怼 284 00:20:10,138 --> 00:20:12,578 甚至有有的时候嗯 285 00:20:12,578 --> 00:20:20,430 半导体他都玩半导体这个SMH或者SOXX这两个费半他都跑不赢 286 00:20:20,430 --> 00:20:22,529 存储远远跑不赢 287 00:20:22,529 --> 00:20:23,930 远远跑不赢 288 00:20:23,930 --> 00:20:28,744 而且存储不是基本上下周一开盘又要涨了 289 00:20:29,430 --> 00:20:31,329 默认涨两三个点 290 00:20:31,329 --> 00:20:32,990 而且存储很奇怪 291 00:20:34,390 --> 00:20:36,569 存储怎么奇怪呢 292 00:20:37,210 --> 00:20:40,789 嗯就是以以交易来看嘛 293 00:20:40,789 --> 00:20:43,049 早上的盘对吧 294 00:20:43,049 --> 00:20:46,589 这个SK海力士还有美光啊 295 00:20:46,589 --> 00:20:48,990 不SK海力士三星走的不错 296 00:20:48,990 --> 00:20:53,099 那DRAM它的两个大的成分股它就走的不错了 297 00:20:53,099 --> 00:20:54,819 然后晚上的时候呢 298 00:20:54,819 --> 00:20:58,420 美国这些机构呢看着哎韩国股票对吧 299 00:20:58,420 --> 00:21:01,539 韩国那几个涨得不错呀 300 00:21:01,950 --> 00:21:05,009 那那他们就会什么拼命买美光 301 00:21:05,009 --> 00:21:08,410 然后到了第二天韩国呢又看见诶 302 00:21:08,410 --> 00:21:10,609 前一天美光长得不错 303 00:21:10,609 --> 00:21:12,670 那么我今天又又买 304 00:21:12,670 --> 00:21:15,609 这就成成了一个不停的循环了 305 00:21:15,609 --> 00:21:20,160 这个正向循环存储这个东西很对 306 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:25,940 存储的东西不不一样 307 00:21:25,940 --> 00:21:27,359 左脚踩右脚了 308 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,039 属于是对左脚踩右脚了 309 00:21:31,890 --> 00:21:33,170 因为你看你看了 310 00:21:33,170 --> 00:21:34,450 昨天晚上哎呦 311 00:21:34,450 --> 00:21:37,170 这个美光长得这么好 312 00:21:37,170 --> 00:21:39,349 那些韩国那些散户呀 313 00:21:39,349 --> 00:21:40,763 机构呀 314 00:21:41,109 --> 00:21:41,910 怕啥呢 315 00:21:41,910 --> 00:21:44,240 直接干就完事 316 00:21:45,839 --> 00:21:47,000 就这样 317 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,259 还有我说一下嗯 318 00:21:50,900 --> 00:21:52,019 消息面吧 319 00:21:52,019 --> 00:21:54,279 其实消息面没啥好说的 320 00:21:54,279 --> 00:21:57,220 就周末嘛反复的反反复复啊 321 00:21:57,220 --> 00:21:59,699 战争反反复复其实没什么 322 00:21:59,699 --> 00:22:01,979 没有什么影响 323 00:22:03,538 --> 00:22:04,638 没有什么影响 324 00:22:04,638 --> 00:22:07,359 你看上一次的呃 325 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,359 像周周三吧 326 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:16,150 周三的美联储的会议完全影响不到周五的存储 327 00:22:16,150 --> 00:22:18,369 半导体继续大涨 328 00:22:18,369 --> 00:22:19,670 没发现吗 329 00:22:19,670 --> 00:22:24,440 因为半导体它和通胀没关系 330 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,150 同我通胀没关系 331 00:22:27,630 --> 00:22:28,930 消费啊 332 00:22:28,930 --> 00:22:31,460 全世界的消费股啊 333 00:22:31,460 --> 00:22:36,619 呃汽车呀零部件呀这种大宗消费呀 334 00:22:36,619 --> 00:22:41,559 这种才有那种会受到能源呀 335 00:22:41,559 --> 00:22:44,779 这一些会受受影响会比较大一点点 336 00:22:44,779 --> 00:22:46,859 你看贵州茅台要跌多久了 337 00:22:46,859 --> 00:22:50,980 贵州茅台都跌到咳跌了 338 00:22:50,980 --> 00:22:52,059 跌到啥时候 339 00:22:52,059 --> 00:22:53,539 跌了好几年前了吧 340 00:22:54,779 --> 00:22:55,829 对咳 341 00:22:55,964 --> 00:22:57,990 微软 342 00:22:59,140 --> 00:23:02,099 嗯我上次直播有时有说过 343 00:23:02,099 --> 00:23:07,019 就是嗯我也看好微软这家公司 344 00:23:07,019 --> 00:23:09,079 我也看好他以后的盈利 345 00:23:09,079 --> 00:23:11,279 我也看好他以以后的盈利 346 00:23:11,279 --> 00:23:14,660 没有人敢说微软这样公司不行的 347 00:23:14,660 --> 00:23:16,079 没有人敢说 348 00:23:16,079 --> 00:23:20,430 可是目前他确实是要对吧 349 00:23:20,430 --> 00:23:24,430 要花钱每做简单题嘛 350 00:23:24,430 --> 00:23:26,049 有时候投资做简单题 351 00:23:26,049 --> 00:23:27,789 那花钱花在谁身上 352 00:23:27,789 --> 00:23:32,289 买那东西不就买那个那个那个那些对吧 353 00:23:32,289 --> 00:23:34,509 铲子公司就行吗 354 00:23:34,509 --> 00:23:40,099 对到时候如果微软像谷歌当初那样反转 355 00:23:40,099 --> 00:23:41,589 那做做就行 356 00:23:41,589 --> 00:23:43,009 那做就行 357 00:23:43,009 --> 00:23:45,309 没必要说去这么着急啊 358 00:23:45,309 --> 00:23:47,619 我们不是那个大型机构 359 00:23:47,900 --> 00:23:49,740 哎呦我们不是那个大型机构 360 00:23:49,740 --> 00:23:52,259 我们没必要说这么着急嘛 361 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,839 嗯对呀 362 00:23:56,839 --> 00:23:59,319 走强趋势就行 363 00:24:00,500 --> 00:24:06,319 就是如果今年没有出现任何的什么啊 364 00:24:06,319 --> 00:24:10,319 关于资本支出放缓呃 365 00:24:10,319 --> 00:24:12,500 这些这些东西啊 366 00:24:12,500 --> 00:24:16,669 OK这些东西记住没有出现两个 367 00:24:16,669 --> 00:24:19,749 第一个是资本资本支出放缓 368 00:24:19,749 --> 00:24:24,640 第二个是OpenAI和entropy的收入出问题 369 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:28,818 半导体尤其是存储 370 00:24:28,818 --> 00:24:31,230 OK尤其是存储 371 00:24:31,549 --> 00:24:39,109 他是一个逢跌必买的一个状态状态 372 00:24:39,750 --> 00:24:41,269 逢跌必买的一个状态 373 00:24:41,269 --> 00:24:44,509 他不会是一个他不会是一个非常什么 374 00:24:44,509 --> 00:24:49,298 不会是一个很难很难做的题目对吧 375 00:24:49,298 --> 00:24:52,759 我一直都不太建议大家去做闪迪呀 376 00:24:52,759 --> 00:24:53,859 美观呀 377 00:24:53,859 --> 00:24:57,079 其实我不太建议你直接做那个ETF就可以了 378 00:24:57,079 --> 00:25:00,670 因为ETF直接打包了是吧 379 00:25:00,670 --> 00:25:02,490 直接把他打包给你 380 00:25:02,490 --> 00:25:04,049 你也不用去想 381 00:25:04,049 --> 00:25:05,890 因为我看着美光长 382 00:25:05,890 --> 00:25:08,410 我这个闪迪为什么不不涨 383 00:25:08,410 --> 00:25:11,650 就完全没有这个可能性 384 00:25:12,339 --> 00:25:13,740 到时候炒多煮 385 00:25:15,900 --> 00:25:22,579 嗯我个人是觉得他炒不到台积电这种这种估值 386 00:25:23,819 --> 00:25:29,710 我个人是我个人是觉得吵不到你 387 00:25:29,710 --> 00:25:31,789 如果你做你做两倍做多的话 388 00:25:31,789 --> 00:25:33,250 你还不如做lip corn 389 00:25:33,250 --> 00:25:36,910 他也差不多两三倍的一个杠杆 390 00:25:38,619 --> 00:25:41,339 资金占用的成本还少很多 391 00:25:44,099 --> 00:25:44,799 是吧 392 00:25:44,799 --> 00:25:49,160 有有多少同学是做了DIAM的cod 393 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:50,440 做了lip call的 394 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,559 扣个一赚到的 395 00:25:52,559 --> 00:25:54,000 扣个一 396 00:25:55,839 --> 00:25:57,279 扣个1DRAM 397 00:25:58,279 --> 00:25:59,160 我看一下有多少 398 00:26:00,519 --> 00:26:02,680 OK我看一下有多少 399 00:26:06,539 --> 00:26:11,619 或者是做DM的还没做 400 00:26:12,689 --> 00:26:14,648 赚了没拿住 401 00:26:18,259 --> 00:26:20,599 那没办法了 402 00:26:28,740 --> 00:26:30,980 你就直接买一个lip port就行 403 00:26:30,980 --> 00:26:33,819 你去网上去看一看什么叫lip port 404 00:26:33,819 --> 00:26:36,829 基本上就20分钟 405 00:26:36,829 --> 00:26:39,809 20分钟你就知道买什么 406 00:26:41,039 --> 00:26:43,240 我还是觉得啊你就算买存储 407 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,420 你你也不需要formal 408 00:26:45,420 --> 00:26:47,220 也不需要formal 409 00:26:47,220 --> 00:26:51,529 因为嗯因为 410 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,740 因为总要有回调的嘛对吧 411 00:26:56,740 --> 00:26:58,960 你总要有回调的 412 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,079 你不需要说太formal吧 413 00:27:02,079 --> 00:27:03,710 总要回一调 414 00:27:03,950 --> 00:27:07,670 回调的时候你再看看哎没有出现一些叙事上面的东西 415 00:27:07,670 --> 00:27:09,910 你就买就行 416 00:27:14,859 --> 00:27:20,900 然后半导体呢你就不要去挑什么英特尔这东西了 417 00:27:21,019 --> 00:27:23,460 不要去挑英特尔那个东西啊 418 00:27:23,460 --> 00:27:27,680 你直接就就就买那一个费半 419 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,839 或者是直接买SMH就可以了 420 00:27:30,839 --> 00:27:34,299 你挑滚挑的太麻烦了 421 00:27:35,319 --> 00:27:36,000 对吧 422 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,420 如果你说像英特尔那样 423 00:27:38,420 --> 00:27:42,119 如果没有周五啊 424 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,180 周四周四那个消息面 425 00:27:44,180 --> 00:27:46,609 他拿着老难受了 426 00:27:46,730 --> 00:27:49,410 他老拿职业拿的老难受了 427 00:27:49,410 --> 00:27:51,680 所以所以你拿不住 428 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:52,359 对啊 429 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:57,000 你你如果你是做你是你不要你不做ETF 430 00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:58,799 你拿不住的 431 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:00,119 拿不住的 432 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,400 所以最好还是直接干ETF就行 433 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:04,799 如果你要做半导体的 434 00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:05,759 Ok 435 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:14,799 主线是AI有多少满意消费的吗的朋友吗 436 00:28:15,559 --> 00:28:17,500 有多少人买来消费 437 00:28:17,500 --> 00:28:21,940 就是我现这里可能下一个我个人的看法吧 438 00:28:21,940 --> 00:28:28,559 如果消费他很长时间都都都走不出来 439 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,240 因为消费没叙事懂吗 440 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:33,619 消费没蓄势 441 00:28:33,619 --> 00:28:36,359 什么时候消费会起来呢 442 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,220 大家不是现在觉得啊 443 00:28:38,220 --> 00:28:39,720 就是像国外那样 444 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,240 人工智能它取代人特别对吧 445 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:44,880 特别狠嘛 446 00:28:45,169 --> 00:28:48,839 你要等就是相当于美国呀 447 00:28:48,839 --> 00:28:50,640 尤其是欧洲呀 448 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:55,890 就给那一些呃用AI的那群 449 00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,789 那群公司给他加税 450 00:29:00,789 --> 00:29:02,470 你们给他加税之后呢 451 00:29:02,470 --> 00:29:06,099 加重税比普通的企业加更高的税 452 00:29:06,099 --> 00:29:10,670 然后再把税收的钱再分给老百姓 453 00:29:10,670 --> 00:29:14,829 那这样的一个消费股才可能会涨 454 00:29:14,829 --> 00:29:17,069 才可能会涨 455 00:29:17,430 --> 00:29:21,900 不然的话消费没叙事懂吗 456 00:29:21,900 --> 00:29:22,740 没叙事 457 00:29:22,740 --> 00:29:23,700 它不是白酒 458 00:29:23,700 --> 00:29:24,220 不白酒 459 00:29:24,220 --> 00:29:26,539 也不是什么奇奇怪怪的东西 460 00:29:26,539 --> 00:29:28,000 它没叙事 461 00:29:28,279 --> 00:29:30,279 没有炒作的理由 462 00:29:30,279 --> 00:29:32,640 我没有炒作的理由 463 00:29:35,799 --> 00:29:38,039 OK消费也说完了 464 00:29:38,039 --> 00:29:41,579 医疗医疗不说医疗这个是纯被吸血了 465 00:29:41,579 --> 00:29:43,670 医疗其实没有问题的 466 00:29:43,670 --> 00:29:44,430 对 467 00:29:44,430 --> 00:29:47,670 像是纯消费的可口可乐这一些还可以 468 00:29:47,670 --> 00:29:50,309 不过呢你做可口可乐 469 00:29:50,309 --> 00:29:53,049 你还真的不如做什么 470 00:29:53,049 --> 00:29:55,269 你还做真的不如做QQQ呢 471 00:29:55,269 --> 00:30:00,529 s spy走的比走的比s spy还烂多对吧 472 00:30:00,529 --> 00:30:04,170 比s spy还烂多对吧 473 00:30:05,079 --> 00:30:08,720 所以现在不是做消费的 474 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:17,680 现在是分化是什么叫做分化牛牛的牛分化的分化懂吗 475 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:22,359 牛的牛分化的分烂的烂烂的烂透了 476 00:30:22,359 --> 00:30:25,009 都已经A股也一样的 477 00:30:25,009 --> 00:30:27,210 我今天说的东西A股也一样的 478 00:30:28,369 --> 00:30:30,329 A股也一样 479 00:30:30,690 --> 00:30:31,970 消费也是烂透 480 00:30:33,130 --> 00:30:35,089 没叙事啊对吧 481 00:30:35,089 --> 00:30:37,779 更不用说美股也其实有很多的消费 482 00:30:37,779 --> 00:30:39,039 七夕也烂透 483 00:30:39,039 --> 00:30:40,039 什么NIKE 484 00:30:40,039 --> 00:30:41,380 什么耐克呀 485 00:30:41,380 --> 00:30:44,819 什么像鲁鲁呀对吧 486 00:30:44,819 --> 00:30:47,250 这些不行 487 00:30:50,410 --> 00:30:51,529 Ok 488 00:30:54,799 --> 00:30:56,859 其实你看指数啊 489 00:30:56,859 --> 00:30:58,359 我看了一下指数啊 490 00:30:58,359 --> 00:31:04,169 其实指数它走的其实没有说创新高 491 00:31:04,169 --> 00:31:05,888 大家可以看一下指数 492 00:31:05,888 --> 00:31:07,970 就指数没有创新高的 493 00:31:07,970 --> 00:31:09,849 指数没有创新高 494 00:31:10,930 --> 00:31:12,809 其实指数还是在震荡 495 00:31:12,809 --> 00:31:16,660 就整个6月份它是在震荡对吧 496 00:31:16,660 --> 00:31:21,039 整个指数6月份都是在震荡 497 00:31:22,170 --> 00:31:24,549 这一下震荡可是半导体啊 498 00:31:24,549 --> 00:31:25,589 有一些存储啊 499 00:31:25,589 --> 00:31:28,250 其他一些杂七杂八的半半导体啊 500 00:31:28,250 --> 00:31:30,159 其实他不是走震荡的 501 00:31:30,159 --> 00:31:38,569 只不过是走上走向了山顶过程中的一个歇一会嗯 502 00:31:39,309 --> 00:31:42,470 哦这个美股的CPU怎么怎么样 503 00:31:42,470 --> 00:31:44,349 能不能抄底 504 00:31:48,940 --> 00:31:51,909 光还是一般般吧 505 00:31:52,189 --> 00:31:54,249 光还是一般般吧 506 00:31:54,249 --> 00:31:57,528 光我真的看不上 507 00:31:57,528 --> 00:31:59,628 其实我看不上 508 00:32:00,569 --> 00:32:01,450 看不上 509 00:32:01,450 --> 00:32:04,450 有市场有更赚钱的市场 510 00:32:04,450 --> 00:32:06,450 有比他更赚钱 511 00:32:07,559 --> 00:32:10,680 市场有比他更赚钱的东西 512 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:17,660 对横盘一段时间 513 00:32:17,660 --> 00:32:18,960 可能会 514 00:32:22,420 --> 00:32:26,539 嗯嗯嗯会继续震荡 515 00:32:26,539 --> 00:32:33,449 资金会从存储英特尔E到哦 516 00:32:33,449 --> 00:32:39,888 先提前炒作布局OpenAI软件转移嘛 517 00:32:39,888 --> 00:32:43,150 不带会不带会 518 00:32:43,549 --> 00:32:45,109 我就问我真的真的 519 00:32:45,109 --> 00:32:46,509 我在后台有呃 520 00:32:46,509 --> 00:32:47,170 就私信 521 00:32:47,170 --> 00:32:49,230 有的同学问我 522 00:32:49,740 --> 00:32:51,900 诶这个下一个存储是谁 523 00:32:51,900 --> 00:32:54,460 我我我看很多的自媒体都这么说 524 00:32:54,460 --> 00:32:55,799 下一个存储是谁 525 00:32:55,799 --> 00:32:58,420 下一个先进封装是谁 526 00:32:58,420 --> 00:32:59,160 下一个 527 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,638 对吧下一个那个对吧 528 00:33:05,638 --> 00:33:07,259 下一个嗯 529 00:33:07,259 --> 00:33:08,349 英伟达是谁 530 00:33:08,349 --> 00:33:12,598 我说下一个存储是存储下一个半导体是半导体 531 00:33:12,598 --> 00:33:15,219 下一个还是下一个下一个美光 532 00:33:15,219 --> 00:33:16,838 还是下一个美光 533 00:33:16,838 --> 00:33:19,679 哈哈还是下一个美光 534 00:33:20,859 --> 00:33:23,519 对还是下一个美国哦 535 00:33:23,519 --> 00:33:26,900 这个A股呢A股买什么买块A股买光啊 536 00:33:26,900 --> 00:33:28,980 买科科创就行 537 00:33:29,230 --> 00:33:30,630 买科创就行 538 00:33:31,750 --> 00:33:33,329 科创别买上证哦 539 00:33:33,329 --> 00:33:35,150 买科创 540 00:33:35,819 --> 00:33:36,779 买创业板 541 00:33:36,779 --> 00:33:38,029 买科技就行 542 00:33:38,029 --> 00:33:39,329 不要买消费哦 543 00:33:39,329 --> 00:33:40,609 不要买劳登股 544 00:33:40,609 --> 00:33:41,869 不要买哦 545 00:33:41,869 --> 00:33:46,974 现在在美股已经GPU的已经算是过时的东西了呵 546 00:33:49,539 --> 00:33:52,819 嗯下一个存储赛道也是下一个存储 547 00:33:52,819 --> 00:33:56,670 OK下一个存储现在还是存储 548 00:33:56,670 --> 00:34:00,950 然后中光含纯美费半诶 549 00:34:00,950 --> 00:34:02,150 少了一个 550 00:34:02,150 --> 00:34:03,509 这个我是认可的 551 00:34:03,509 --> 00:34:04,250 少了一个 552 00:34:04,250 --> 00:34:06,450 OK少了一个什么 553 00:34:06,450 --> 00:34:07,569 少了一个 554 00:34:07,569 --> 00:34:11,619 日本的半导体原料 555 00:34:12,619 --> 00:34:13,059 少了一个 556 00:34:13,059 --> 00:34:16,099 这个大家可能如果没没用银透的话 557 00:34:16,099 --> 00:34:18,309 大家应该买不了咳 558 00:34:22,340 --> 00:34:24,780 然后博通还有说法吗 559 00:34:24,780 --> 00:34:27,019 博通不要做吧 560 00:34:27,628 --> 00:34:28,949 博通不要做吧 561 00:34:28,949 --> 00:34:32,108 因为博通哎呀 562 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,639 博通哎 563 00:34:35,639 --> 00:34:36,219 老实讲 564 00:34:36,219 --> 00:34:39,150 博通被伤害过一次 565 00:34:39,150 --> 00:34:42,829 就资金被伤害过一次之后做他会有点难 566 00:34:42,829 --> 00:34:46,309 你做那种纯右侧的会比较好一点点 567 00:34:46,309 --> 00:34:48,230 反正都是炒作嘛 568 00:34:48,230 --> 00:34:51,309 为什么要炒一个有套 569 00:34:51,309 --> 00:34:53,829 有很多套牢盘的地方 570 00:34:55,079 --> 00:34:56,079 对吧 571 00:34:56,079 --> 00:34:56,918 没必要 572 00:34:58,039 --> 00:35:02,199 就像阿斯麦要走得比kl AC要好 573 00:35:02,849 --> 00:35:04,769 大家没发现吗 574 00:35:04,929 --> 00:35:07,909 这KLAC他会有被伤害过 575 00:35:07,909 --> 00:35:10,329 他有很多套牢盘在上面 576 00:35:10,329 --> 00:35:13,219 所以他走的就有点小别扭 577 00:35:13,219 --> 00:35:17,619 然后NBIS就是这些星云嘛 578 00:35:17,619 --> 00:35:19,719 New chrome 579 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:27,139 嗯这一些真的有这些的整个逻辑它不在半导体 580 00:35:27,139 --> 00:35:28,519 它走的像半导体 581 00:35:28,519 --> 00:35:30,019 它走的是涨价 582 00:35:30,019 --> 00:35:35,099 你会发现NBIS在几次几次大涨的时候呢 583 00:35:35,099 --> 00:35:37,190 它都有一个共同点 584 00:35:37,190 --> 00:35:42,650 就是他的消息面上面说它要涨价了 585 00:35:43,329 --> 00:35:44,250 还要涨价 586 00:35:45,409 --> 00:35:46,969 但如果它不涨价 587 00:35:46,969 --> 00:35:49,329 他就绝对跑不过半导体 588 00:35:49,329 --> 00:35:52,289 他也保走的也不太好 589 00:35:53,139 --> 00:35:58,329 就这样对这个数据中心租赁价格涨价 590 00:35:58,329 --> 00:36:00,769 他们走的核心逻辑是这个 591 00:36:00,769 --> 00:36:03,889 而半导体走的合集呢是稀缺性 592 00:36:03,889 --> 00:36:04,969 是稀缺 593 00:36:06,050 --> 00:36:08,610 嗯闪迪还能长吗 594 00:36:08,610 --> 00:36:09,969 哦不知道哈 595 00:36:09,969 --> 00:36:10,949 实在不知道 596 00:36:10,949 --> 00:36:13,170 有时候他就容易怎么样呢 597 00:36:13,170 --> 00:36:14,889 闪迪涨完美光涨 598 00:36:14,889 --> 00:36:18,090 镁光涨完之后又什么西部数据涨 599 00:36:18,090 --> 00:36:24,219 那这轮动的他哪怕存储它内部也会有轮动 600 00:36:24,219 --> 00:36:26,898 它也会有轮动的 601 00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:31,559 他去他在轮动 602 00:36:31,559 --> 00:36:35,599 所以说存储最好呢 603 00:36:35,599 --> 00:36:37,380 因为你做美观的话 604 00:36:37,380 --> 00:36:38,599 你因为财报嘛 605 00:36:38,599 --> 00:36:39,599 因为做期权的话 606 00:36:39,599 --> 00:36:41,800 财报我觉得啊有点偏贵的话 607 00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,358 你可以出掉 608 00:36:43,639 --> 00:36:50,909 那如果你说嗯嗯如果你说比如说 609 00:36:52,300 --> 00:36:55,420 呃说啥了啊 610 00:36:55,420 --> 00:36:56,360 对美光 611 00:36:56,360 --> 00:37:00,639 如果你说我的我是正骨 612 00:37:00,639 --> 00:37:01,800 OK我正骨 613 00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:10,398 我觉得减到你他的捡到你在财报当天的波动不会影响你的情绪 614 00:37:10,398 --> 00:37:13,119 不会影响你持仓啊 615 00:37:13,119 --> 00:37:15,139 比较很剧烈的波动 616 00:37:15,139 --> 00:37:16,659 我觉得就没问题了 617 00:37:16,659 --> 00:37:19,849 我觉得没问题嗯 618 00:37:19,849 --> 00:37:22,829 日本对哎哎对对对 619 00:37:22,829 --> 00:37:28,059 这个这个这个什么这个这个这个同学这个皮卡对吧 620 00:37:28,059 --> 00:37:30,260 皮卡20201101 621 00:37:30,260 --> 00:37:31,760 这个同学就说对了啊 622 00:37:34,730 --> 00:37:43,079 这两家是在日本的市场里面绝对的龙头O就在日股里面 623 00:37:43,079 --> 00:37:48,018 在半导体这个产业在日本绝对的龙头 624 00:37:48,018 --> 00:37:53,420 他的地位像是韩国的三星电子和SK海力士 625 00:37:53,420 --> 00:37:55,539 那大家如果没有去赢透的话 626 00:37:55,539 --> 00:37:57,239 你就得对吧 627 00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:58,699 如果你想买的话 628 00:37:58,699 --> 00:38:01,679 就得比较麻烦一点点咳 629 00:38:05,780 --> 00:38:07,920 然后微软微软无药可救 630 00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,960 微软短期无药可救哈 631 00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:12,278 短期无药 632 00:38:12,278 --> 00:38:16,079 微软其实我我个人的计划是在什么 633 00:38:16,079 --> 00:38:18,958 我计划是在微软下次财报之前 634 00:38:18,958 --> 00:38:20,760 我要减减半导体 635 00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:25,960 因为我不知道就是他们的资本支出会不会放缓 636 00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:27,099 凯侠也行 637 00:38:27,099 --> 00:38:28,400 我OK凯旋也挺牛 638 00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:30,778 这资本支出会不会放缓 639 00:38:30,778 --> 00:38:34,679 就打怕增速没有特别快 640 00:38:34,679 --> 00:38:37,449 我都有点害怕市场会炒这个东西 641 00:38:37,449 --> 00:38:41,889 因为目前还不知道市场它的定价到底定了多少分 642 00:38:41,889 --> 00:38:44,489 反正是有点高估的半导体 643 00:38:44,489 --> 00:38:49,498 可是呢有没有把它定价到100分在资本支出上面 644 00:38:49,498 --> 00:38:52,539 所以我会选择在微软出财报之前 645 00:38:52,539 --> 00:38:56,898 会对我的半导体进行一部分的减减仓啊 646 00:38:56,898 --> 00:38:59,259 微微那对于微软来说 647 00:38:59,259 --> 00:39:01,378 这这反过来嘛对吧 648 00:39:01,378 --> 00:39:06,449 如果他的资本支出的就是没有这么夸张 649 00:39:06,449 --> 00:39:07,530 那么它就涨了 650 00:39:08,809 --> 00:39:11,958 不过我觉得啊哎别闹了 651 00:39:11,958 --> 00:39:13,778 增长还是增长的 652 00:39:13,778 --> 00:39:16,938 可是就增速不不确定而已 653 00:39:16,938 --> 00:39:21,989 所以说微软短时间哎不太OK 654 00:39:21,989 --> 00:39:25,969 你看这个这个什么这个亚马逊都不太OK了 655 00:39:25,969 --> 00:39:28,730 已经亚马逊也不太OK了 656 00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:35,239 嗯微软对等财报吧 657 00:39:35,539 --> 00:39:38,239 然后自媒体说token的价格 658 00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:40,760 数据中心租赁的价格在下降 659 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:44,119 对有有的自媒体是这么说的 660 00:39:44,119 --> 00:39:45,420 可是还是那句话 661 00:39:45,420 --> 00:39:47,019 我们主要是看财报吧 662 00:39:47,019 --> 00:39:49,380 这一些可能是噪音 663 00:39:49,380 --> 00:39:50,800 主要是还是那句 664 00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:54,320 刚才KPEX是否什么 665 00:39:54,610 --> 00:39:57,289 这是否啊延续对吧 666 00:39:57,289 --> 00:39:59,110 延续还是一个高位吧 667 00:39:59,110 --> 00:40:01,150 高位然后慢慢上涨 668 00:40:01,150 --> 00:40:05,260 然后ENFORBIA啊 669 00:40:05,260 --> 00:40:07,260 ONAI还是没有问题的 670 00:40:07,260 --> 00:40:08,280 收入还是OK的 671 00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:09,840 那就OK了 672 00:40:11,070 --> 00:40:15,010 然后7月20几号财报前会拉升一波 673 00:40:15,010 --> 00:40:17,480 不知道不知道 674 00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:19,880 现在现在6月份都没结束 675 00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,079 6月份没结束 676 00:40:23,820 --> 00:40:25,400 6月份的还没结束呢 677 00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,659 等6月份6月份结束先吧 678 00:40:27,659 --> 00:40:28,860 凯霞也很牛逼 679 00:40:28,860 --> 00:40:34,349 对存储就哎这每个个个个都是蛊王 680 00:40:36,900 --> 00:40:42,900 哦半导体半导体的定价呢还没有去到泡沫 681 00:40:42,900 --> 00:40:45,960 不过比较高估嗯 682 00:40:47,980 --> 00:40:49,739 不要高估 683 00:40:49,980 --> 00:40:52,539 我现在可以跟就是跟你说 684 00:40:52,539 --> 00:40:58,019 就是嗯到周四就因为周五没开盘吗 685 00:40:58,019 --> 00:41:04,289 然后周四的话半导体它是造了一个高估 686 00:41:04,289 --> 00:41:05,690 没有泡沫 687 00:41:05,690 --> 00:41:07,530 OK没有泡沫 688 00:41:07,530 --> 00:41:09,670 没有去到泡沫这么夸张 689 00:41:09,670 --> 00:41:15,510 这是由这是根据半导体这个EDA他的EPS增速而得到的 690 00:41:15,510 --> 00:41:17,630 就根据财报得到的 691 00:41:17,630 --> 00:41:21,750 他不是说就是他不是说意淫就涨了这么多之后 692 00:41:21,750 --> 00:41:22,610 他就出泡沫 693 00:41:22,610 --> 00:41:25,838 它是由EBS推动计算出来的 694 00:41:25,838 --> 00:41:33,050 嗯不过你的不过不过根据啊模型测算吧 695 00:41:33,730 --> 00:41:35,889 预期得放低一点点 696 00:41:36,510 --> 00:41:39,190 大家做半导体预期要放低一点点 697 00:41:39,190 --> 00:41:43,039 因为因为其实他到了高估之后 698 00:41:43,039 --> 00:41:46,690 他可能会有一些小回调 699 00:41:46,809 --> 00:41:48,250 有小回调 700 00:41:48,250 --> 00:41:54,530 珍惜好每一次半导体回调的在在在我刚才说的两个基础上面 701 00:41:54,530 --> 00:41:55,809 没有出现问题的时候 702 00:41:55,809 --> 00:41:59,090 你要珍惜好每一次半导体回调的机会 703 00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:01,400 真系好 704 00:42:02,699 --> 00:42:05,980 然后DRAM的lab code还持有吗 705 00:42:05,980 --> 00:42:07,460 当然持有了 706 00:42:08,119 --> 00:42:12,420 但持有这个川对吧 707 00:42:13,300 --> 00:42:17,500 嗯说in intex能不能和apple合作对吧 708 00:42:17,500 --> 00:42:18,659 可以涨十倍 709 00:42:18,659 --> 00:42:19,599 有说法吗 710 00:42:19,599 --> 00:42:22,489 炒啊呵吵呀 711 00:42:22,809 --> 00:42:24,909 你怎么知道他会不会合作呢 712 00:42:24,909 --> 00:42:28,420 他他当也就当个两年对吧 713 00:42:28,420 --> 00:42:32,300 下一下一届的会不会又是对吧 714 00:42:32,300 --> 00:42:35,659 说不定说不定吵就行了 715 00:42:35,659 --> 00:42:41,059 侥幸早上车晚幸把梦想 716 00:42:41,059 --> 00:42:43,699 把很贵的梦想卖给他们 717 00:42:43,699 --> 00:42:46,239 这就是做一个合格的锤子 718 00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,789 做一个合格的trader 719 00:42:49,190 --> 00:42:55,150 然后IGV板块空头回补拉一波嗯 720 00:42:56,579 --> 00:43:02,059 不确定不确定不确定 721 00:43:02,539 --> 00:43:07,019 现在整个半导体已经把所有资金都都吸光了 722 00:43:07,019 --> 00:43:09,869 没有人再去做那些板块了 723 00:43:09,869 --> 00:43:11,469 作为我们这种散户来说 724 00:43:11,469 --> 00:43:16,409 我们不需要像巴菲特这种哎我要提前布局啊对吧 725 00:43:16,409 --> 00:43:19,230 我们散户哪需要提前布局的盖 726 00:43:19,230 --> 00:43:22,530 然后他启动就做就行 727 00:43:22,530 --> 00:43:24,190 不需要提前布局的 728 00:43:24,190 --> 00:43:25,809 提前布局太什么 729 00:43:25,809 --> 00:43:29,929 我对于我们这种资金体量来说不现实 730 00:43:30,989 --> 00:43:34,349 等到到时候哎出现一些宏观的利好啊 731 00:43:35,469 --> 00:43:36,230 再说吧 732 00:43:36,230 --> 00:43:39,644 而且IGV这个板块有时候 733 00:43:41,139 --> 00:43:43,019 就是要分开来看 734 00:43:43,019 --> 00:43:45,179 有一些纯有一些软件公司 735 00:43:45,179 --> 00:43:46,599 他确实是受益的 736 00:43:46,599 --> 00:43:49,739 比如像一些安全类的公司 737 00:43:49,739 --> 00:43:56,000 但是有一些呢像数据库啊这些 738 00:43:56,000 --> 00:44:00,340 或者是做一些呃纯商业平台的 739 00:44:00,340 --> 00:44:04,000 他就受到AI的冲击又比较大 740 00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:11,449 所以IGV的东西啊是个投资的复杂复杂题 741 00:44:11,449 --> 00:44:17,880 高高中高中题我现在已经做高中题已经已经做不了了 742 00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:22,639 已经嗯研究生做不了高中题了 743 00:44:23,179 --> 00:44:26,360 不会做对 744 00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,440 半导体现在是有点高估了 745 00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:30,199 OK他还没去到泡沫 746 00:44:30,199 --> 00:44:31,949 也没有去到泡沫 747 00:44:32,269 --> 00:44:34,269 也没有去到泡沫等等 748 00:44:34,269 --> 00:44:37,829 半导体人均动态市盈率是100倍 749 00:44:37,829 --> 00:44:41,150 那那就是泡沫中的泡沫了 750 00:44:41,559 --> 00:44:43,940 然后谷歌和苹果合作 751 00:44:43,940 --> 00:44:46,840 居民乃大规模作用 752 00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,920 会不会推动谷歌股价 753 00:44:51,039 --> 00:44:53,440 哦现在有个问题啊 754 00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:58,960 因为半导体它有业绩炒作的资金愿意去 755 00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:02,079 可是呢像这一些啊 756 00:45:02,079 --> 00:45:04,320 比如说M7呀 757 00:45:04,699 --> 00:45:10,269 他都受到美联储的那个货币政策的影响 758 00:45:10,269 --> 00:45:14,230 其实大家别看着老是看着指数啊 759 00:45:14,230 --> 00:45:16,389 那指数在涨涨涨的 760 00:45:16,389 --> 00:45:17,909 看着什么费半啊 761 00:45:17,909 --> 00:45:19,050 存储在涨 762 00:45:19,050 --> 00:45:26,690 其实市场上面的流动性是在慢慢的慢慢的流失的 763 00:45:27,289 --> 00:45:29,170 慢慢的流逝了 764 00:45:29,170 --> 00:45:32,769 就流就就不见了的 765 00:45:33,900 --> 00:45:40,650 所以你就会看见像某币呀这些走的特别不行 766 00:45:40,650 --> 00:45:43,449 就整个月线你看着都周线 767 00:45:43,449 --> 00:45:47,179 你看着有点有点有点有点犯病 768 00:45:47,179 --> 00:45:48,739 就是这个原因 769 00:45:48,739 --> 00:45:50,119 流动性的问题 770 00:45:50,119 --> 00:45:54,969 流动性的问题是现在呃去什么流动性的问题 771 00:45:54,969 --> 00:46:00,599 现是现在影响M7最大的一个问题 772 00:46:00,599 --> 00:46:01,918 流动性的问题 773 00:46:02,958 --> 00:46:05,119 如果流动性问题没有解决的 774 00:46:05,119 --> 00:46:06,739 M7很难涨 775 00:46:06,739 --> 00:46:10,400 因为M7的盈利增速还有预期 776 00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:12,940 它是没有半导体牛的 777 00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,889 A股科创板都是100多倍 778 00:46:18,889 --> 00:46:21,670 对A股纯炒的就行了 779 00:46:21,670 --> 00:46:23,489 A股就纯炒就行 780 00:46:23,489 --> 00:46:26,409 所以A股呢说它简单又简单 781 00:46:26,409 --> 00:46:28,130 说它难又难 782 00:46:30,199 --> 00:46:32,420 就纯吵说他难 783 00:46:32,420 --> 00:46:33,400 说它简单嘛 784 00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:38,500 就是嗯就是就像是马蜂一样 785 00:46:38,659 --> 00:46:42,860 就是蜜蜂一嗡一坨对吧 786 00:46:42,860 --> 00:46:45,019 冲上去说它难嘛 787 00:46:45,019 --> 00:46:47,969 你又不知道啥时候要走 788 00:46:48,519 --> 00:46:49,320 就这样 789 00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:53,980 大家不用太慌 790 00:46:54,739 --> 00:47:02,500 下半年大概还是半导体有我在有我6月份的KPEX没有出现问题 791 00:47:02,500 --> 00:47:04,679 但是还是半导体 792 00:47:06,639 --> 00:47:08,400 还是半导体 793 00:47:10,420 --> 00:47:12,260 这个这个没有办法的 794 00:47:12,260 --> 00:47:16,579 所以有些同学可能说哎呀我要做云厂商啊 795 00:47:16,579 --> 00:47:18,349 或者怎么怎么样 796 00:47:18,349 --> 00:47:19,750 其实有没有想过 797 00:47:19,750 --> 00:47:23,690 如果云厂商他的收入出问题 798 00:47:23,690 --> 00:47:26,789 货币化出问题都会跌 799 00:47:27,190 --> 00:47:32,230 都会跌一块跌不会有什么区别 800 00:47:33,349 --> 00:47:34,349 给我弄一个 801 00:47:34,349 --> 00:47:36,144 给我弄一个 802 00:47:36,650 --> 00:47:39,409 都都都都都可以叠 803 00:47:40,110 --> 00:47:41,269 都会跌的 804 00:47:41,269 --> 00:47:45,510 不会有独善其身的AI产业链都是一体 805 00:47:45,510 --> 00:47:46,510 一荣俱荣 806 00:47:46,510 --> 00:47:49,409 一损俱损啊 807 00:47:49,409 --> 00:47:53,519 对买了对对对 808 00:47:53,519 --> 00:47:56,079 就是有些有有我有我私信 809 00:47:56,079 --> 00:47:58,300 有个朋友就跟我说 810 00:47:58,820 --> 00:48:01,800 哎我DRAM听你老早说了 811 00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,570 我就一直都拿着 812 00:48:04,570 --> 00:48:06,889 很早就现在都已经正 813 00:48:06,889 --> 00:48:08,690 他买的是DRM的正骨 814 00:48:08,690 --> 00:48:09,769 没加期权 815 00:48:09,769 --> 00:48:12,110 快发快70%的收益 816 00:48:12,110 --> 00:48:13,250 他说哎呀 817 00:48:13,250 --> 00:48:16,050 我现在拿着有点慌呀 818 00:48:16,050 --> 00:48:17,858 我我当初问他 819 00:48:17,858 --> 00:48:18,958 哎你涨了 820 00:48:18,958 --> 00:48:20,778 你盈利20%的时候 821 00:48:20,778 --> 00:48:21,498 你不慌 822 00:48:21,498 --> 00:48:23,878 你盈利70%的时候有点慌 823 00:48:23,878 --> 00:48:25,898 你那盈利150的时候 824 00:48:25,898 --> 00:48:29,199 那你不就吓跑了嘛对吧 825 00:48:29,199 --> 00:48:30,619 你不是吓跑了吗 826 00:48:30,619 --> 00:48:31,920 我说没必要啊 827 00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,079 它跌之前他会有什么 828 00:48:34,079 --> 00:48:37,989 它会有它会有一些叙事上面的变化的 829 00:48:37,989 --> 00:48:40,070 嗯不用对 830 00:48:40,070 --> 00:48:42,230 他会有一些叙事上面的变化 831 00:48:42,230 --> 00:48:44,989 我说不用太慌 832 00:48:48,659 --> 00:48:51,898 所以有时候就就特别特别难受 833 00:48:51,898 --> 00:48:53,818 就买一个股票特别难受 834 00:48:53,818 --> 00:48:55,318 被套了又难受 835 00:48:55,318 --> 00:48:57,539 然后涨多了又怕什么 836 00:48:57,539 --> 00:48:59,170 又怕回调又难受 837 00:48:59,170 --> 00:49:00,449 等会儿哇 838 00:49:00,449 --> 00:49:01,730 这个玩个股票 839 00:49:01,730 --> 00:49:05,059 玩个投资就纯折磨自己 840 00:49:05,059 --> 00:49:08,719 没必要真没必要没必要 841 00:49:14,699 --> 00:49:18,528 嗯我现在就开始直营嗯 842 00:49:18,969 --> 00:49:24,608 我要把仓位嗯减到60%嗯 843 00:49:25,110 --> 00:49:26,750 控制死占60% 844 00:49:32,329 --> 00:49:36,849 我做期权只会更多做少 845 00:49:42,199 --> 00:49:48,039 止盈止损是每一个合格的交易者必须要学会的 846 00:49:48,039 --> 00:49:50,039 因为你没有办法每次都对我 847 00:49:50,039 --> 00:49:53,090 你看我我之前不是做云厂商 848 00:49:53,329 --> 00:49:56,019 就吃了一波反弹之后 849 00:49:56,340 --> 00:49:59,539 就是有一次直播我就把它全清了嘛 850 00:50:00,619 --> 00:50:05,570 其实有一些股票它是嗯打穿了我的止损的 851 00:50:05,570 --> 00:50:07,710 我自动成交止损 852 00:50:09,260 --> 00:50:13,940 所以说有时候止损可能会是让你少亏 853 00:50:13,940 --> 00:50:17,739 你们不要总觉得哎呀我止损我已经亏了 854 00:50:17,739 --> 00:50:20,119 我止损太难受 855 00:50:20,119 --> 00:50:22,210 这不得对吧 856 00:50:22,210 --> 00:50:23,610 从我身上割肉嘛 857 00:50:23,610 --> 00:50:24,489 太难受了 858 00:50:24,489 --> 00:50:26,028 不用这么想 859 00:50:26,268 --> 00:50:31,668 有时候止损可能会让你少亏钱 860 00:50:34,679 --> 00:50:38,800 那你你看我现在就开始止盈了嗯 861 00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:41,320 不会太止盈 862 00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:42,960 不会止的太多的 863 00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:49,000 不会指太多在控制自己仓位的风险而已 864 00:50:51,079 --> 00:50:52,239 你看我做了什么 865 00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:53,619 我做了免费办 866 00:50:53,619 --> 00:50:56,800 然后我做了韩国存储好吧 867 00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,449 我做了嗯 868 00:50:59,449 --> 00:51:01,969 日清那几个对吧 869 00:51:01,969 --> 00:51:04,170 我是做了日日日本的那几个 870 00:51:05,250 --> 00:51:09,034 我就没做那个中国光光模块而已 871 00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:12,599 虾虾干 872 00:51:15,039 --> 00:51:16,199 挺香 873 00:51:25,599 --> 00:51:28,340 还是珍惜好每一次回调机会 874 00:51:28,340 --> 00:51:31,800 在半导体这种科技牛的时候 875 00:51:34,039 --> 00:51:36,599 当然前提是什么 876 00:51:36,869 --> 00:51:39,469 一还是那那两个问题 877 00:51:39,469 --> 00:51:41,530 一旦出现了任何的一个苗头 878 00:51:41,530 --> 00:51:42,750 都必须要什么 879 00:51:42,750 --> 00:51:44,210 像渣男那样 880 00:51:44,210 --> 00:51:46,750 OK我不跟你谈恋爱了啊 881 00:51:47,010 --> 00:51:48,730 就我不是跟你谈恋爱 882 00:51:48,730 --> 00:51:50,670 我就走对吧 883 00:51:50,670 --> 00:51:54,369 一一减就减三十五十% 884 00:51:56,000 --> 00:52:01,780 仓位这个才是这个才是最有交易纪律的一个东西 885 00:52:01,780 --> 00:52:04,559 你你要知道他为什么涨 886 00:52:05,489 --> 00:52:07,449 这样就行了 887 00:52:11,039 --> 00:52:13,639 好了好吧 888 00:52:15,860 --> 00:52:16,960 明天开盘 889 00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:20,340 明天大概会走的还行对吧 890 00:52:20,340 --> 00:52:24,130 最起码唉这个人家在你说吧 891 00:52:25,130 --> 00:52:28,489 人家在瑞士已经开始团建了 892 00:52:28,489 --> 00:52:29,389 知道吧 893 00:52:29,389 --> 00:52:31,409 人家在瑞士已经开始团建了 894 00:52:31,409 --> 00:52:33,769 那这不是还挺好的嘛 895 00:52:34,179 --> 00:52:35,059 你看我最新 896 00:52:38,539 --> 00:52:40,969 好像是不是今晚的 897 00:52:41,650 --> 00:52:46,179 好像是下午的消息在瑞士团建了 898 00:52:46,179 --> 00:52:49,739 那基本上那半导体又得对吧 899 00:52:49,739 --> 00:52:52,510 又得蹦蹦蹦了嗯 900 00:52:52,949 --> 00:52:54,949 两个小时之前了对吧 901 00:52:54,949 --> 00:53:00,349 两个小时之前行行行啊 902 00:53:00,349 --> 00:53:02,369 不用我发提前发动态 903 00:53:02,369 --> 00:53:03,789 我慢慢减吧 904 00:53:03,789 --> 00:53:05,269 不像是减仓嘛 905 00:53:05,269 --> 00:53:07,889 像是控制一下风险啊 906 00:53:07,889 --> 00:53:10,090 我现在仓位半导体太重了 907 00:53:11,610 --> 00:53:16,329 我现在都已经那些呃残留的一些仓位吧 908 00:53:16,329 --> 00:53:18,449 比如像美像啊 909 00:53:18,449 --> 00:53:19,170 M7呀 910 00:53:19,170 --> 00:53:24,329 有一些就是已经剩下利润在跑了 911 00:53:24,489 --> 00:53:25,489 他没仓位 912 00:53:25,489 --> 00:53:28,010 相当于因为半导体涨的太狠了 913 00:53:28,010 --> 00:53:30,929 我这个仓位其他仓位被压缩了 914 00:53:30,929 --> 00:53:36,110 所以为控制控制仓位控制仅此而已 915 00:53:36,110 --> 00:53:37,269 我要控制控制 916 00:53:37,269 --> 00:53:38,789 我不会我不看空哦 917 00:53:38,789 --> 00:53:40,309 我控制控制仓位 918 00:53:40,309 --> 00:53:43,250 我也不会说减到半导体只有30% 919 00:53:43,250 --> 00:53:45,650 这种仓位我不会这么做的 920 00:53:45,650 --> 00:53:46,769 我不会这么做了 921 00:53:46,769 --> 00:53:49,019 没必要嗯 922 00:53:49,019 --> 00:53:50,260 最起码开始谈判了 923 00:53:50,260 --> 00:53:55,869 再睡在在瑞士两个小时之前发的 924 00:53:56,269 --> 00:53:59,489 所以你你怎么去判断 925 00:53:59,489 --> 00:54:06,369 就是你怎么判断油价这个东西怎么样去怎么样的一个问题 926 00:54:06,730 --> 00:54:08,409 或者是打仗啊 927 00:54:08,409 --> 00:54:09,889 怎么怎么怎么样的 928 00:54:09,889 --> 00:54:11,150 不需要判断 929 00:54:11,150 --> 00:54:16,280 不需要判断你的那个海峡它到底开还是关哦 930 00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:20,039 不要判断这种大的叙事其实不需要的 931 00:54:20,039 --> 00:54:24,309 就简单的你就看那个原油的价格就行了 932 00:54:24,309 --> 00:54:26,789 做移民的价格就行 933 00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:33,460 贵原油价格就行 934 00:54:33,460 --> 00:54:37,920 市场现在已经不交易那种纯消息面了嗯 935 00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:42,159 原油的价格它马上就会反映出来 936 00:54:43,940 --> 00:54:48,280 剩下的其实原油已经就是原油啊 937 00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:53,239 已经跌破了一个长期上涨的趋势线了 938 00:54:53,920 --> 00:55:00,610 不知道大家有没有看见油已经跌破了长期上涨一个趋势线了 939 00:55:02,219 --> 00:55:03,739 大概率是没问题的 940 00:55:05,139 --> 00:55:07,179 大概率是没问题 941 00:55:09,639 --> 00:55:11,440 大概率是没问题的 942 00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:12,900 不用太担心 943 00:55:12,900 --> 00:55:13,920 不用太担心 944 00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:17,000 因为那个流动性也会挺好的 945 00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:19,250 接下来嗯 946 00:55:21,449 --> 00:55:27,980 然后今年最大的机会有两个嗯 947 00:55:27,980 --> 00:55:30,719 有两个朋友们 948 00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:35,699 一个是OpenAI的CIPO 949 00:55:35,699 --> 00:55:37,079 不是哈 950 00:55:37,079 --> 00:55:41,000 不是是SK海力士 951 00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:44,980 它上市的一个什么IPO 952 00:55:44,980 --> 00:55:48,400 你叫ADR在美股上市 953 00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:50,139 Ok 954 00:55:52,099 --> 00:55:55,188 第二个机会是unfit 955 00:55:55,509 --> 00:55:59,548 就是那一个啊不停的说自己很牛逼的模型 956 00:55:59,548 --> 00:56:00,568 很牛逼的 957 00:56:00,568 --> 00:56:01,748 什么都替代了 958 00:56:01,748 --> 00:56:04,170 那哥们的上市 959 00:56:04,170 --> 00:56:15,159 IPO这两个将是推动今年到明年年初泡沫化的两个助他一手 960 00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:22,349 OK两个如果今年真的会变成下半年 961 00:56:22,349 --> 00:56:29,260 从今年下半年到明年年初真的会变成像01年零一年这种00年 962 00:56:29,260 --> 00:56:31,199 OK00年这种泡沫的话 963 00:56:31,199 --> 00:56:33,880 一定是这两个哥们的 964 00:56:34,219 --> 00:56:35,599 一定是两个哥们 965 00:56:35,599 --> 00:56:41,690 这两个哥们有了AI最本质的利润追求 966 00:56:42,170 --> 00:56:43,710 还有一个什么 967 00:56:43,710 --> 00:56:48,099 还有一个有着不符合 968 00:56:48,099 --> 00:56:51,139 这就之前的几个错误定价 969 00:56:52,219 --> 00:56:53,380 懂吗 970 00:56:54,039 --> 00:56:55,400 这是错误定价 971 00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:58,190 菜就相当于我之前就说了 972 00:56:58,190 --> 00:57:05,369 如果SK海力士是以目前这个这个这个这个这个上市的话 973 00:57:05,369 --> 00:57:09,929 那绝对是变贱卖资产的国家资产的 974 00:57:09,929 --> 00:57:13,530 OK你看SKT0是天天在涨啊 975 00:57:13,530 --> 00:57:14,349 我的天啊 976 00:57:14,349 --> 00:57:15,170 天天涨 977 00:57:15,170 --> 00:57:16,030 他只要不涨 978 00:57:16,030 --> 00:57:17,570 我就觉得奇了怪了 979 00:57:18,539 --> 00:57:20,340 当然你说涨的 980 00:57:20,340 --> 00:57:23,059 你说他一下子在上市之前 981 00:57:23,059 --> 00:57:23,579 7月份 982 00:57:23,579 --> 00:57:23,820 Ok 983 00:57:23,820 --> 00:57:27,099 7月份67月份直接给你干到台积电 984 00:57:27,099 --> 00:57:31,528 这个或者接近台积电这个动态市盈率或者市盈率 985 00:57:31,528 --> 00:57:34,369 那我觉得我就不参与IPO了 986 00:57:34,369 --> 00:57:36,088 你又炒过头了是吧 987 00:57:36,088 --> 00:57:37,949 嗯炒过头了 988 00:57:38,230 --> 00:57:43,010 那如那NPY这个这一家没法炒过头呀 989 00:57:43,010 --> 00:57:47,523 估计我觉得啊如果SK海力士和 990 00:57:48,780 --> 00:57:50,179 I'MFY比的话 991 00:57:50,179 --> 00:57:51,679 我我会选择安FY 992 00:57:51,679 --> 00:57:52,800 我都不喜欢 993 00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:54,579 我看不上SUSPX 994 00:57:54,579 --> 00:57:57,360 我这看不上SURVEX的IPO 995 00:57:57,360 --> 00:58:00,079 赚钱的概率不大 996 00:58:00,079 --> 00:58:00,960 你知道吗 997 00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:02,608 赚钱概率不大 998 00:58:02,969 --> 00:58:08,398 对open i我都我都有点一般般是吧 999 00:58:08,398 --> 00:58:12,498 现在因为现在云云大模型厂商里面呃 1000 00:58:12,498 --> 00:58:17,789 真营收增速最快的就是就是IMPROBE的最快的没有之一 1001 00:58:17,789 --> 00:58:19,090 这块没有之一 1002 00:58:19,090 --> 00:58:20,650 它的溢价会很高 1003 00:58:20,650 --> 00:58:23,590 如果大家到时候要IPO的话 1004 00:58:23,590 --> 00:58:24,809 尽可能对吧 1005 00:58:24,809 --> 00:58:28,250 尽可能的整多一点点 1006 00:58:28,250 --> 00:58:31,329 看能不能他配额未必能配这么多 1007 00:58:31,329 --> 00:58:33,130 给给散户的 1008 00:58:34,260 --> 00:58:35,539 未必能配这么多 1009 00:58:37,739 --> 00:58:41,228 嗯OK大家有没有问的 1010 00:58:41,228 --> 00:58:43,289 我十点我就下播 1011 00:58:43,289 --> 00:58:45,929 大家有没有想问的哦 1012 00:58:45,929 --> 00:58:47,409 谢谢 1013 00:58:50,860 --> 00:58:53,099 有没有想问的 1014 00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:00,480 嗯没有想问了 1015 00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:02,239 那就结束了 1016 00:59:03,179 --> 00:59:05,699 你有没有想问的 1017 00:59:13,119 --> 00:59:21,269 跟B从A股跟跟B从A股就是跟B从OK看着别人美 1018 00:59:21,269 --> 00:59:24,150 昨天这个美国长得不错 1019 00:59:24,150 --> 00:59:26,090 我也跟着上去干 1020 00:59:28,829 --> 00:59:31,590 因为我中年中年 1021 00:59:31,590 --> 00:59:34,070 什么中年发福男 1022 00:59:36,559 --> 00:59:38,000 激光雷达怎么看 1023 00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:41,440 不看好看好 1024 00:59:43,019 --> 00:59:43,699 不看好 1025 00:59:46,860 --> 00:59:49,039 可是A股的吗 1026 00:59:49,039 --> 00:59:50,039 A股的话 1027 00:59:50,039 --> 00:59:52,639 你你当如果是油脂炒作的话 1028 00:59:52,639 --> 00:59:56,230 你你就A不是炒就行 1029 00:59:56,230 --> 00:59:59,869 你就当之前的那种博弈的投机的纯 1030 00:59:59,869 --> 01:00:01,690 如果你说投资来看 1031 01:00:01,690 --> 01:00:04,510 大机构不会去进的 1032 01:00:05,378 --> 01:00:07,659 不会去进了 1033 01:00:09,260 --> 01:00:12,519 大机构不会去做这种的 1034 01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:18,469 大机构还记得像A股上一次抱团最狠的是什么 1035 01:00:18,469 --> 01:00:19,630 白酒医疗 1036 01:00:19,630 --> 01:00:21,449 他们是有业绩在的 1037 01:00:21,449 --> 01:00:25,570 所以使劲抱团就是机构 1038 01:00:25,570 --> 01:00:30,659 他会他是你抬轿子最有力的帮手 1039 01:00:30,940 --> 01:00:37,469 最有力的帮手嗯主要是我觉得做衣服很简单哦 1040 01:00:37,469 --> 01:00:39,309 你直接干那个指数就行 1041 01:00:40,469 --> 01:00:43,795 那科创的那个指数就行哦 1042 01:00:44,849 --> 01:00:50,019 比那些经常日内交易的那那些人比啊 1043 01:00:50,019 --> 01:00:51,679 你直接干指数啊 1044 01:00:51,679 --> 01:00:55,150 我觉得你都对吧 1045 01:00:55,150 --> 01:00:57,389 你都很牛啦 1046 01:00:57,389 --> 01:01:00,630 超越99.99%的人了 1047 01:01:02,179 --> 01:01:05,039 下半年NPY之后的行情怎么看 1048 01:01:05,039 --> 01:01:09,619 UNPY如果真的炒很猛的话 1049 01:01:09,980 --> 01:01:12,460 那就是00年了 1050 01:01:13,280 --> 01:01:15,599 大家就可以等01年了 1051 01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:17,760 懂吗 1052 01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:21,949 大家都就可以等01年了 1053 01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:27,000 大家就可以等01年了 1054 01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:29,340 真的如果安卓比上次这么猛的话 1055 01:01:29,340 --> 01:01:31,559 真的就变成01年了 1056 01:01:31,559 --> 01:01:36,590 那时候你会看见存储的动态市盈率可以干到30倍 1057 01:01:36,590 --> 01:01:41,239 可以从现在的九倍十倍干到30多倍 1058 01:01:41,239 --> 01:01:48,780 每一每一个半导体平均都有70倍到九十一百倍的动态市盈率 1059 01:01:48,780 --> 01:01:51,280 你你就会看见这个了 1060 01:01:52,469 --> 01:01:56,630 嗯半导体直接半导体设备也是也行 1061 01:01:58,420 --> 01:01:59,900 嗯小火箭是吧 1062 01:01:59,900 --> 01:02:03,780 这个这个IKLV 1063 01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:12,489 做空我觉得我觉得啊散户做空不要是以一种什么嗯 1064 01:02:12,489 --> 01:02:15,329 散户做空不要是纯空 1065 01:02:15,329 --> 01:02:16,210 懂吧 1066 01:02:16,210 --> 01:02:22,230 你散户做空你的时机最重要就是你跟着空跟空 1067 01:02:22,230 --> 01:02:22,849 你懂吧 1068 01:02:22,849 --> 01:02:23,670 跟着空 1069 01:02:23,670 --> 01:02:26,230 比如说整个趋势真的裂掉了 1070 01:02:26,230 --> 01:02:32,400 然后呢很多很多蓄势有问题 1071 01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:33,699 那你就空 1072 01:02:33,699 --> 01:02:36,278 你就用一点仓位去空就行了 1073 01:02:36,278 --> 01:02:39,259 你不要说我就认为他长过了头 1074 01:02:39,259 --> 01:02:40,059 然后就空 1075 01:02:40,059 --> 01:02:41,358 不要这么做 1076 01:02:41,358 --> 01:02:43,679 千万不要这么做 1077 01:02:44,400 --> 01:02:49,300 你可以去看一下那些投资的在00年怎么样去啊 1078 01:02:49,300 --> 01:02:51,280 爽啊对 1079 01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:54,409 现在那个rk lb 1080 01:02:54,409 --> 01:02:57,940 rk lb怎么看火箭 1081 01:02:57,940 --> 01:03:01,260 其实我不太了解IIK2B是不是小火箭来着 1082 01:03:01,260 --> 01:03:03,219 我看一下 1083 01:03:07,539 --> 01:03:10,940 是不是火箭是不是要火箭板块了 1084 01:03:10,940 --> 01:03:12,820 我都忘了 1085 01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:17,820 嗯太空太空概念 1086 01:03:17,820 --> 01:03:22,599 我觉得太空概念短期它是没有半导体走的强 1087 01:03:29,260 --> 01:03:30,219 网不好吗 1088 01:03:32,619 --> 01:03:34,659 OK你的网OK吗 1089 01:03:36,780 --> 01:03:38,579 都网OK吗 1090 01:03:43,420 --> 01:03:45,260 我的网好吗 1091 01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:49,619 太空概念是没有半导体 1092 01:03:49,619 --> 01:03:50,639 没有半导体 1093 01:03:50,639 --> 01:03:53,489 这么这么OK的 1094 01:03:53,730 --> 01:03:58,329 从这个是从资金流向上面已经已经决定了 1095 01:03:59,170 --> 01:04:01,849 甚至在SPX的巅峰的时候 1096 01:04:01,849 --> 01:04:02,250 你懂吗 1097 01:04:02,250 --> 01:04:03,809 在他巅峰的那一天 1098 01:04:03,809 --> 01:04:05,190 我我是发一条动态 1099 01:04:05,190 --> 01:04:07,170 就是说在尾盘的时候 1100 01:04:07,170 --> 01:04:11,480 SPX和那一个和那个半导体 1101 01:04:11,480 --> 01:04:15,429 它出现了轻微的资金拉扯的这种 1102 01:04:15,429 --> 01:04:18,250 可是出现就这么一段时间之后 1103 01:04:18,250 --> 01:04:21,679 再隔一天4SPX就马上不行了 1104 01:04:21,679 --> 01:04:22,559 就萎了 1105 01:04:22,559 --> 01:04:23,840 就阳痿了 1106 01:04:23,840 --> 01:04:27,039 然后半导体就把那些资金给吸光 1107 01:04:28,559 --> 01:04:31,119 就把那些资金给吸光 1108 01:04:39,079 --> 01:04:42,039 嗯看空对这个看空不要做空哦 1109 01:04:42,039 --> 01:04:43,039 这个是美股 1110 01:04:43,039 --> 01:04:44,800 真的对 1111 01:04:44,800 --> 01:04:46,320 你可以你可以去什么 1112 01:04:46,320 --> 01:04:49,489 你可以在呃高空啊 1113 01:04:49,489 --> 01:04:51,050 对高空什么叫做高空 1114 01:04:51,050 --> 01:04:56,590 就是它跌破趋势线之后反弹反弹到一个啊压力位 1115 01:04:56,590 --> 01:04:57,320 你再空 1116 01:04:57,320 --> 01:04:59,400 这种是做空胜率 1117 01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:01,880 在美股市场胜率最高的一个 1118 01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:05,230 也不要说哎我看到它下跌趋势线 1119 01:05:05,230 --> 01:05:06,730 OK我就空 1120 01:05:06,730 --> 01:05:07,889 我就破趋势 1121 01:05:07,889 --> 01:05:08,329 我就空 1122 01:05:08,329 --> 01:05:09,429 这个是不对的 1123 01:05:09,429 --> 01:05:11,369 是你下跌趋势线之后呢 1124 01:05:11,369 --> 01:05:13,449 你要反弹反弹到一个支撑位之后 1125 01:05:13,449 --> 01:05:14,750 你再去解空 1126 01:05:14,750 --> 01:05:20,159 这样的空的胜率要比直接直接直接空就直一些 1127 01:05:20,159 --> 01:05:21,199 就是跌破趋势线 1128 01:05:21,199 --> 01:05:26,760 要它的盈利的概率要高非常多高非常多 1129 01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:31,119 然后现在大部分人还是交易存储是周期 1130 01:05:31,119 --> 01:05:33,349 对对对对 1131 01:05:33,869 --> 01:05:35,769 现在那为啥还是交易 1132 01:05:35,769 --> 01:05:41,670 就是我们我们都不需要知道这个存储到底是周期还是不周期 1133 01:05:44,039 --> 01:05:45,659 就不需要迟到 1134 01:05:45,659 --> 01:05:49,500 为啥周不周期它本身不重要 1135 01:05:49,500 --> 01:05:55,139 重要是因为半导体其他的东西也已经很贵了 1136 01:05:56,349 --> 01:05:57,429 大家都有业绩 1137 01:05:57,429 --> 01:06:00,429 我凭什么就不能炒一个 1138 01:06:01,280 --> 01:06:06,219 它的估值会相对低一点的 1139 01:06:06,420 --> 01:06:10,579 而且我盈利也牛啊对吧 1140 01:06:10,579 --> 01:06:11,340 我盈利也牛 1141 01:06:11,340 --> 01:06:13,219 我比你更牛呢 1142 01:06:13,219 --> 01:06:14,300 这就是存储 1143 01:06:14,300 --> 01:06:16,460 为什么存储会涨得这么狠的原因 1144 01:06:16,460 --> 01:06:19,139 它要比其他要狠很多 1145 01:06:23,079 --> 01:06:25,800 嗯你等了他很高之后 1146 01:06:25,800 --> 01:06:28,989 你就把这个东西卖给什么卖 1147 01:06:28,989 --> 01:06:30,929 把它当成一个很高的梦想 1148 01:06:30,929 --> 01:06:35,329 包装着一个商品卖给下一个接盘的人 1149 01:06:35,329 --> 01:06:39,530 你说AI有的朋友就说AI到底有没有泡沫 1150 01:06:39,530 --> 01:06:41,809 AI一定会有泡沫 1151 01:06:41,809 --> 01:06:42,969 一定以后也会泡沫 1152 01:06:42,969 --> 01:06:45,699 一定就是肯定会有泡沫 1153 01:06:45,699 --> 01:06:46,938 不可能没有泡沫的 1154 01:06:46,938 --> 01:06:51,568 因为泡沫是人性决定的 1155 01:06:52,409 --> 01:06:56,969 你在我们屏幕OK假设我们铃木27个哥们 1156 01:06:57,969 --> 01:07:01,443 就有27个哥们参与美股 1157 01:07:02,519 --> 01:07:07,949 大家都觉得什么都觉得这个很棒对吧 1158 01:07:07,949 --> 01:07:08,949 这个东西很棒 1159 01:07:08,949 --> 01:07:11,789 那么它现在炒的价格一定就是什么 1160 01:07:12,869 --> 01:07:15,389 一定就是泡沫了 1161 01:07:15,880 --> 01:07:18,159 对泡沫是人性驱动 1162 01:07:18,159 --> 01:07:19,599 它不是事情驱动 1163 01:07:19,599 --> 01:07:22,840 一定有泡沫嗯 1164 01:07:28,659 --> 01:07:30,980 对电电力怎么说 1165 01:07:30,980 --> 01:07:33,420 电力还是得电力 1166 01:07:33,420 --> 01:07:40,539 不是现在嗯在AI产业链上面涨价最狠的 1167 01:07:40,929 --> 01:07:44,108 现在AI产业上面有三个东西 1168 01:07:44,108 --> 01:07:48,400 它的涨价幅度是远超其他 1169 01:07:48,400 --> 01:07:49,719 第一个存储 1170 01:07:49,719 --> 01:07:53,510 第二个像可能现在是call was 1171 01:07:53,510 --> 01:07:56,429 OK可能到明年之后呢 1172 01:07:56,429 --> 01:07:58,170 他就变成COOPPOSE 1173 01:07:58,170 --> 01:08:00,570 这叫出口啊什么 1174 01:08:00,570 --> 01:08:02,869 这就相当于台积电 1175 01:08:02,869 --> 01:08:04,489 还有美啊 1176 01:08:04,489 --> 01:08:10,329 台湾的日月光第二公司或者英特尔这种公司 1177 01:08:10,329 --> 01:08:13,329 他竟然做这种晶圆加工 1178 01:08:13,329 --> 01:08:15,090 加上先进封装 1179 01:08:16,090 --> 01:08:20,048 这个他们的技术能力很强 1180 01:08:20,048 --> 01:08:24,149 其实它里面还包含了一个哥们叫做阿斯麦 1181 01:08:24,149 --> 01:08:26,420 你们没有阿斯麦 1182 01:08:26,420 --> 01:08:29,060 它的光刻机它是和存储有关系 1183 01:08:29,060 --> 01:08:30,800 它又和台积电有关系 1184 01:08:30,800 --> 01:08:34,590 所以阿斯麦现在涨得非常狠的一个原因就是这样 1185 01:08:34,590 --> 01:08:40,890 那么第三个部分就是GPU设计AMD英伟达这些 1186 01:08:40,890 --> 01:08:47,219 就现在AI整一个蛋糕就被他们三个东西给瓜分掉了 1187 01:08:47,458 --> 01:08:50,439 其实在日本的一些原材料 1188 01:08:50,439 --> 01:08:56,219 他的一个吃蛋糕的能力其实没有这么强 1189 01:08:57,319 --> 01:08:57,998 知道吧 1190 01:08:59,599 --> 01:09:03,078 而且现在就这样组组成的 1191 01:09:04,210 --> 01:09:04,890 所以说 1192 01:09:07,689 --> 01:09:10,449 嗯趁着现在还没有报幕 1193 01:09:11,939 --> 01:09:15,649 嗯是像像CEO 1194 01:09:15,649 --> 01:09:18,168 就是台积电的一个仙境风光 1195 01:09:18,168 --> 01:09:19,809 就3D封装 1196 01:09:19,809 --> 01:09:24,969 OK叫三他们他们自己命名叫3D封装工艺 1197 01:09:27,260 --> 01:09:31,060 其实大家很简单 1198 01:09:34,199 --> 01:09:36,239 老黄去哪里旅游 1199 01:09:36,239 --> 01:09:37,600 你就炒哪里就行 1200 01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:40,710 大家没发现吗 1201 01:09:41,149 --> 01:09:43,029 老王去哪里旅游 1202 01:09:43,029 --> 01:09:44,569 去哪里团建 1203 01:09:44,569 --> 01:09:47,229 你就做那几个就行了 1204 01:09:49,520 --> 01:09:50,880 没发现吗 1205 01:09:50,880 --> 01:09:53,760 不是说美股市场有这个吗 1206 01:09:56,960 --> 01:10:02,380 嗯短期看特朗普中期看什么对 1207 01:10:02,380 --> 01:10:03,180 这就是老黄 1208 01:10:03,180 --> 01:10:06,840 他自己不找K老黄去哪里见哪些人 1209 01:10:06,840 --> 01:10:10,119 哪些人就找这个很简单的 1210 01:10:10,119 --> 01:10:11,359 真的哈哈 1211 01:10:11,359 --> 01:10:14,300 你看短期看特朗普 1212 01:10:14,300 --> 01:10:15,859 中期看黄仁勋 1213 01:10:15,859 --> 01:10:19,859 长期看美联储是吧是吧 1214 01:10:19,859 --> 01:10:22,590 转短期看黄仁勋 1215 01:10:22,590 --> 01:10:23,850 短期看特朗普 1216 01:10:23,850 --> 01:10:25,329 中期看黄奕勋 1217 01:10:25,329 --> 01:10:27,279 长期看美联储 1218 01:10:27,279 --> 01:10:28,439 不是这样吗 1219 01:10:28,439 --> 01:10:30,579 已经都已经多久了 1220 01:10:30,579 --> 01:10:32,569 两三年是这样的 1221 01:10:32,850 --> 01:10:34,770 今年今年还是这样的 1222 01:10:34,770 --> 01:10:36,170 就特别简单 1223 01:10:36,170 --> 01:10:38,369 现在老王去哪里 1224 01:10:38,369 --> 01:10:41,039 你就坐哪里就行 1225 01:10:44,699 --> 01:10:46,500 人家不需要自己挑骨 1226 01:10:46,500 --> 01:10:50,310 自己给你挑完了你去哪里团建 1227 01:10:50,310 --> 01:10:52,510 你就记得诶去哪里团建好了 1228 01:10:52,510 --> 01:10:54,859 OK不行 1229 01:10:55,500 --> 01:10:57,340 卧室怎么看 1230 01:10:57,869 --> 01:11:00,149 典型的左右逢源啊 1231 01:11:00,149 --> 01:11:03,750 嗯典型左右逢源的哥们 1232 01:11:04,189 --> 01:11:06,189 还是一个 1233 01:11:07,210 --> 01:11:08,890 卧室啥都没说对了 1234 01:11:09,890 --> 01:11:15,289 就卧室这这这种就就就就就就这样哼真的 1235 01:11:16,880 --> 01:11:21,159 对那墨石这个怎么说呢 1236 01:11:22,460 --> 01:11:25,479 嗯只不过在我看来啊 1237 01:11:25,479 --> 01:11:28,319 就在上次的那个美联储会议 1238 01:11:28,319 --> 01:11:31,859 我感觉他就是一个鲍威尔的青春版本 1239 01:11:31,859 --> 01:11:37,189 嗯跟鲍尔的青春版本没什么区别 1240 01:11:37,189 --> 01:11:37,930 你没看见吗 1241 01:11:37,930 --> 01:11:39,029 没什么区别 1242 01:11:39,029 --> 01:11:42,500 那还是很模棱两可 1243 01:11:42,500 --> 01:11:44,020 什么交给数据 1244 01:11:44,020 --> 01:11:45,159 然后就什么 1245 01:11:45,159 --> 01:11:50,519 然后用什么要要用更新的数据对吧 1246 01:11:50,899 --> 01:11:52,899 这不就这样吗 1247 01:11:54,239 --> 01:11:58,029 没没有像之前那几几个美联储这样哇 1248 01:11:58,029 --> 01:12:01,850 这个形式风格一百三十三百六十度变化 1249 01:12:01,850 --> 01:12:03,810 180度变化没有 1250 01:12:03,810 --> 01:12:05,729 还是那句话 1251 01:12:06,649 --> 01:12:09,979 真的到时候如果真的市场跌的话 1252 01:12:09,979 --> 01:12:10,939 你就看一下诶 1253 01:12:10,939 --> 01:12:13,720 搜一下黄岩新去最近去哪旅旅游了 1254 01:12:13,720 --> 01:12:14,720 团建了 1255 01:12:14,720 --> 01:12:19,649 那就那你就知道我要做哪一些东西啊 1256 01:12:20,449 --> 01:12:21,229 台积电 1257 01:12:21,229 --> 01:12:23,810 你看去了台积电对吧 1258 01:12:23,810 --> 01:12:26,569 去了嗯 1259 01:12:27,569 --> 01:12:28,210 去了啥 1260 01:12:28,210 --> 01:12:29,789 去了台台湾台积电 1261 01:12:29,789 --> 01:12:32,689 然后去了韩国对吧 1262 01:12:32,689 --> 01:12:34,550 诶最近好像没去日本 1263 01:12:34,550 --> 01:12:35,909 对方没发现吗 1264 01:12:35,909 --> 01:12:37,949 日本就不行了对吧 1265 01:12:37,949 --> 01:12:38,810 日本没有韩国 1266 01:12:38,810 --> 01:12:41,000 长得很没有台湾长得很 1267 01:12:41,000 --> 01:12:42,600 大家可以看一下指数 1268 01:12:42,600 --> 01:12:44,800 拉一个指数对比一下哦 1269 01:12:44,800 --> 01:12:45,479 对等一下 1270 01:12:45,479 --> 01:12:48,029 到时候黄元申去去日本了 1271 01:12:48,029 --> 01:12:48,670 诶 1272 01:12:48,670 --> 01:12:49,689 诶去对 1273 01:12:49,689 --> 01:12:51,310 要去欧洲了啊 1274 01:12:51,310 --> 01:12:53,109 最近可能欧洲最近啊 1275 01:12:53,109 --> 01:12:54,649 这个阿斯麦又涨得挺好 1276 01:12:54,649 --> 01:12:55,930 挺狠的了啊 1277 01:12:55,930 --> 01:12:56,949 到时候去日本诶 1278 01:12:56,949 --> 01:12:59,069 日本几个赶得又挺狠的 1279 01:12:59,069 --> 01:13:00,729 就这样很奇啊 1280 01:13:00,729 --> 01:13:01,689 就是不是奇怪 1281 01:13:01,689 --> 01:13:02,819 也不是巧合 1282 01:13:02,819 --> 01:13:10,079 就是因为他自己知道自己做这个服务器要缺点啥 1283 01:13:10,079 --> 01:13:10,920 他要是什么 1284 01:13:10,920 --> 01:13:12,079 他要去打点 1285 01:13:12,079 --> 01:13:14,750 好懂吗 1286 01:13:14,750 --> 01:13:17,430 因为因为没有人比他更快 1287 01:13:17,430 --> 01:13:20,590 就知道我做这东西缺啥 1288 01:13:21,328 --> 01:13:25,509 大家就分析这分析那的就就纸上谈兵 1289 01:13:25,509 --> 01:13:27,668 你实际上你没做过调研 1290 01:13:27,668 --> 01:13:32,300 他帮你调研好了对啊 1291 01:13:34,640 --> 01:13:36,880 嗯现在现在你知道吗 1292 01:13:36,880 --> 01:13:42,720 现在LIT就是这家公司做做光通信 1293 01:13:43,100 --> 01:13:45,439 黄仁勋已经忍不了他了 1294 01:13:45,439 --> 01:13:46,979 你要是怎么叫忍不了 1295 01:13:48,060 --> 01:13:51,680 就是他你再不你你你你没钱破产 1296 01:13:51,680 --> 01:13:53,340 我给你钱去扩产 1297 01:13:53,340 --> 01:13:55,979 OK我给你钱去扩展 1298 01:13:55,979 --> 01:13:57,319 你不想扩产 1299 01:13:57,319 --> 01:13:59,520 我让你上下游去去逼你扩产 1300 01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:02,020 就不想 1301 01:14:02,260 --> 01:14:04,420 黄总还是有点有点东西的 1302 01:14:05,859 --> 01:14:09,840 嗯所以说真的记住那一句话 1303 01:14:09,840 --> 01:14:13,140 什么今天记住下半年记住什么 1304 01:14:13,140 --> 01:14:16,619 没有出现那两个核心的风险 1305 01:14:16,619 --> 01:14:21,789 之前中光美纯啊 1306 01:14:21,789 --> 01:14:27,920 春光美肺半含纯日本原料好这四个 1307 01:14:27,920 --> 01:14:31,119 然后短期看特朗普 1308 01:14:31,119 --> 01:14:32,960 中期看黄仁勋 1309 01:14:32,960 --> 01:14:34,640 长期看美联储 1310 01:14:34,640 --> 01:14:37,179 OK就这 1311 01:14:39,298 --> 01:14:40,418 Ok 1312 01:14:42,199 --> 01:14:46,439 那么今天的直播就到此结束 1313 01:14:46,439 --> 01:14:47,880 大家晚安 1314 01:14:47,880 --> 01:14:51,279 明天明天我们明天我们开盘对吧 1315 01:14:51,279 --> 01:14:52,960 明天我们开盘就可以看看 1316 01:14:52,960 --> 01:14:57,449 基本上我觉得美光的财报其实不太重要 1317 01:14:57,449 --> 01:14:59,569 我觉得7月份的时候 1318 01:14:59,569 --> 01:15:06,270 我觉得7月份的云厂商的一个财报会比较重要 1319 01:15:06,270 --> 01:15:10,969 那么7月份他们会比较重要一点点 1320 01:15:11,288 --> 01:15:18,289 而且就是嗯在美光初财报就美光周才报 1321 01:15:18,289 --> 01:15:21,748 有我爹它不单只跌不升 1322 01:15:21,748 --> 01:15:26,189 而且基本上在寥寥就是很少的时间段 1323 01:15:26,189 --> 01:15:28,059 他马上就会修复 1324 01:15:28,059 --> 01:15:30,779 如果他一旦暴涨了之后呢 1325 01:15:30,779 --> 01:15:34,239 韩国城主会比他反应的更加的狠 1326 01:15:34,520 --> 01:15:35,720 反正得更加的狠 1327 01:15:36,720 --> 01:15:42,479 所以你要知道就是镁光跌了是机会 1328 01:15:42,479 --> 01:15:44,739 他不是问题 1329 01:15:45,500 --> 01:15:49,340 对那个闪迪那一次也一样的诶 1330 01:15:49,340 --> 01:15:51,140 一跌上去好了 1331 01:15:51,140 --> 01:15:53,500 不用两三天就修复了 1332 01:15:53,659 --> 01:15:58,100 他压根他你还想怎么叠上去之后再再磨嘛 1333 01:15:58,100 --> 01:15:59,399 别闹了 1334 01:15:59,399 --> 01:16:02,639 这一跌下去一看一下财报诶 1335 01:16:02,639 --> 01:16:04,378 你只是高估而已啊 1336 01:16:04,378 --> 01:16:07,670 我一看你如果你按动态市盈率看 1337 01:16:07,670 --> 01:16:10,128 按其他一些指标来看 1338 01:16:10,128 --> 01:16:12,309 你不要看那个市净率来看 1339 01:16:12,309 --> 01:16:13,668 他是低估的 1340 01:16:13,668 --> 01:16:14,708 咬齿硬干 1341 01:16:14,708 --> 01:16:16,208 又没人卖对吧 1342 01:16:16,208 --> 01:16:17,208 又没有说已上 1343 01:16:17,208 --> 01:16:18,899 已经上车的人又不卖 1344 01:16:18,899 --> 01:16:21,100 一下子就蹦上去了 1345 01:16:21,100 --> 01:16:23,739 所以说啊美观 1346 01:16:23,739 --> 01:16:26,520 就你现在比我拿着股票的人 1347 01:16:26,520 --> 01:16:29,060 你说我我这个纪律问题啊 1348 01:16:29,060 --> 01:16:31,409 我交易纪律我没法再加仓了 1349 01:16:31,409 --> 01:16:33,369 我真的夹不了了 1350 01:16:33,369 --> 01:16:34,880 那你就别动 1351 01:16:34,880 --> 01:16:36,180 你就别动 1352 01:16:36,180 --> 01:16:38,539 瞄准你跟我刚才说的那两个信号 1353 01:16:38,539 --> 01:16:41,729 因为你是什么啊 1354 01:16:41,729 --> 01:16:43,649 遵循纪律遵循纪律 1355 01:16:43,649 --> 01:16:44,708 那没办法了 1356 01:16:44,708 --> 01:16:45,729 我跟你说 1357 01:16:45,729 --> 01:16:48,949 我现在有余钱啊 1358 01:16:48,949 --> 01:16:50,090 你你也别疯摸 1359 01:16:51,090 --> 01:16:53,090 你也别form摸啊 1360 01:16:53,090 --> 01:16:54,949 加仓机会很多 1361 01:16:56,489 --> 01:16:58,319 好了拜拜
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