【NaNa说美股】20260409原来是轰炸散户啊！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月9号周四

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由于以色列猛烈空袭黎巴嫩

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把伊朗的小弟珍珠党揍得鼻青脸肿

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伊朗一看小弟挨打就不干了哈

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当即老脸一横贯了霍尔木兹海峡

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并且威胁要终止停火协议

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油价呢应声反抽

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日内一度涨超8%

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把原本以为天下太平的交易员们

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给吓出了一身冷汗

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关键时刻还是川总会玩啊

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一个跨洋电话呢打给了内塔尼亚胡

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让以色列给大哥一点面子

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在谈判期间把火力给开的小点

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内塔尼亚湖倒也是识相

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嘴上答应的极其痛快

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甚至还抛出了尽快与黎巴嫩展开直接谈判

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真主党解除武装

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两国确立和平

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这种连他自己都不信的科幻剧本

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地球人都知道

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以色列与真主打那是不死不休的仇恨啊

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哪怕明天地球就毁灭

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今天也要先干死对方

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珍珠党

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要是真的能呃解除武装

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那太阳估计得从西边出来

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内塔尼亚胡之所以答应减少打击

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无非是昨天炸的太凶了

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库存弹药得补补货

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顺便也给大哥一个台阶下

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至于什么叫减少打击

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那解释权当然是归于以色列国防军所有

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哈伊朗那边呢一看大哥们都收了神通

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也赶紧借坡下驴

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改口称海峡关闭

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不是这个报道有误啊

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只是通行了

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得提前打个招呼嗯

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油价随即就像泄了气的皮球从高位跌落

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现在这个油市全靠几个老头嘴里的消息去拉动

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一天一个说法

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把马斯基这种航运巨头都给搞得疑神疑鬼的

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只能蹲在波斯湾门口观望

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目前据说是每天放行15艘哈

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具体实施还得看这个周末谈的怎么样

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数据面上呢

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今天盘前公布的美国2月PC数据

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虽然基本符合预期

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但是距离美联储2%的目标还相差甚远

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表明美联储在伊朗战争之前

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就已经面临着抗通胀的挑战了

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3月份因为伊朗战争引发的油价冲击

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通胀更可能会进一步上升

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与此同时

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GDP与就业数据偏弱

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美国第四季度实际GDP年化季率终值

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录得0.5%

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低于预期和前值0.7%

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美国上周初请失业金人数录得21.9万人

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高于预期的21万人

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前值为20.3万

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裁员人数依然处于低位

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为劳动力市场呢提供了支撑

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这一系列经济数据公布之后

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市场反应平淡

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因为这些数据其实都过时了

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难以对现在的市场产生影响

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就像是过期两周的报纸

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市场连看都懒得看一眼

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美股早盘时间也一度小幅回落

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10:30左右

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因为美伊双方释放了缓和的信号

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量化算法呢捕捉到了关键词

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谈判和平

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瞬间就开启无脑拉升模式

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在指数冲散了6800点后

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大量涌入的嗯

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0日到期期权以及CCTA的火力全开

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把指数直接就顶到了6835点哈

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直接撞到了嗯

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摩根大通

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那座名义价值数百亿美元的6840

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看涨期权墙上

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这里堆积了天量的看涨期权卖单

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那些懂干妈的交易员们早就盯着这座墙了

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由于嗯当下美股市场

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总体伽马场口已经有负转正了

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它呢往往会抑制大幅波动

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并且将价格锁定在一定的范围内

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所以当指数在6840下方的时候

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它会像磁铁一样把指数给吸过去

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因为做市商要买入起火对冲

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但只要你敢试图跨越火线哈

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那做市商为了保持吊塔中性啊

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就必须反向卖出标普指的这个期货

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这里每上涨一寸都会触发电脑程序

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自动吐出海量的卖单

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市场从来就不是靠情绪

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那种虚无缥缈的东西所驱动的哈

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都是由这些呃

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期权行权价背后的强制对冲逻辑所决定的

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都是量化机器人在做

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自3月31号以来

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标普500指数已经连续七个交易日上涨

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空头染料充足之行情几乎是垂直逼空

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除了短线交易员们渴望抓住这一波

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地缘缓和带来的嗯反弹窗口之外呢

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还有CTA在底下持续的买入

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根据高盛的模型

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c ta在本周无论是产涨跌哈

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都是净买家

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不过这一波涨到6835点

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已经是超额完成了反弹任务

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这里可能是短期最后减仓回笼现金的机会

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明天3月的呃CPI数据即将公布

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在连涨七天后

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市场的情绪已经高度透支

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若是CPI数据超预期的话

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在进入周末这个充满了变数的窗口之际

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获利了结的重力啊会远大于继续上攻的动力

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4月10号到期的期权显示

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机构们在6840以上几乎没有加长嗯

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Collar

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而是在6750的下方

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疯狂的补入这个put

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这说明机构们又重回周末前避险模式了哈

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目前6750呢是明天最后的看跌期权

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强多头的最强防御

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在6720~6750

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只要能够守住这里

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这一波七连阳的上升趋势就没破哈

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一旦跌破了这道防线呢

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那指数可能就会开启回补缺口模式

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回补的节奏将会决定这一轮上涨的成色

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到那个时候

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我们就能一眼看清

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这一轮上涨到底是真金白银的趋势反转

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还是仅仅为了引诱散户进场接盘呃

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演的一出回光返照

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就是我们说的那个bot trap嗯

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摩根大通市场情报部门刚刚宣布

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转为战术性看多利差

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预计标普500指数将会突破7000点关口

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理由是霍尔木兹海峡重开

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以及两周后战争将会彻底结束

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有望触发一轮类似

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去年对等关税政策转向后的风险资产重估行情

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哪怕现实里的损失

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还会继续传导到经济数据里哈

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嗯该部门曾在3月初的时候呢

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成功预测过标普500指数将会回调近10%

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跌到6270点

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与3月30号的实际低点六千三百十七点

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相差不到50点

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另外呢高盛也加入了看涨阵营

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称现在是抄底美股科技板块的好时机

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理由是科技板块已经从较高的估值水平回落

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但与此同时

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科技股2026年和2027年

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分析师盈利预期正面修正的近百分比

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依然超过了其他所有行业

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所以今天指数涨这么多

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除了消息面缓和

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c ct买盘持续承接以及期权市场的影响之外呢

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呃也有大喊唱多提振市场信心的原因哈

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就推动这个指数突破6800点之后

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才能够疯狂的呃

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吸引CCTA以及那个凌日期权的涌入嘛

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地缘摩擦所引发的恐慌性抛售

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在这短短三周内就被完全消化了

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随着指数重新进入年初构建的这个震荡大

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箱体内

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风险情绪哈出现了戏剧性的转折

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更有意思的是

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摩根大通的交易台报告显示

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以往最头铁的美股

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散户对这一波暴利上涨

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却持这个明显怀疑的态度

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尽管停火消息引发了市场的暴利反弹

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但是散户投资者呢选择逢高卖出

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防御倾向持续强化

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本周指数持续上涨哈

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但是散户整体交易活动却极度低迷

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活跃度就只处于历史1.2%分位

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资金流入总量降到了48亿美元

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远低于过去12个月周均66亿美元的水平

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昨天盘中一度还出现了近一年来最大规模的ETF

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净卖出

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收盘的时候

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ETF嗯持仓敞口降到了超过十个月的最低水平

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呃

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目前仍然是为数不多的散户净买入的方向

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为什么美股散户会错过这一轮反弹呢

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我觉得哈还是因为绝大多数人啊都被川普

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还有伊朗的反复无常

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极限拉扯给搞得精神分裂了

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只能够踏空观望

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只有那些内幕人士才大捞特捞

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在周二尾盘的最后几分钟

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有内幕人士大量买入了价值数百万美元的

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s spy和黄金ETF的短期看涨期权

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还有人在周二停火协议出来之前啊

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开了一个5100万美元的石油空头头寸

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一下子就赚取了1.7亿美元的利润

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至于这些内幕人士都有谁

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我估计大家心里都有数哈

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这呃第一任妻托举女儿

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00:09:32,029 --> 00:09:34,610
这个端水大事做的确实没话说哈

212
00:09:34,610 --> 00:09:35,879
儿女都有份呐

213
00:09:35,879 --> 00:09:39,700
最惨的还是被情绪牵着鼻子走的散户

214
00:09:39,700 --> 00:09:41,340
这一波暴利上涨

215
00:09:41,340 --> 00:09:43,730
美股散户不仅没有吃到肉

216
00:09:43,730 --> 00:09:45,950
反而成了最大的血包

217
00:09:45,950 --> 00:09:47,970
就在周三反转前夕

218
00:09:47,970 --> 00:09:51,090
散户们还顶着一年来最高的资金量哈

219
00:09:51,090 --> 00:09:53,299
疯狂买入SQQQ做空

220
00:09:53,299 --> 00:09:55,879
结果呢就被这一波史诗级的逼空

221
00:09:55,879 --> 00:09:57,860
直接给按在了地上摩擦

222
00:09:57,860 --> 00:10:00,490
原来这一轮美股的暴涨

223
00:10:00,490 --> 00:10:02,490
伊朗要的战争赔款

224
00:10:02,490 --> 00:10:04,269
白宫要捞钱

225
00:10:04,269 --> 00:10:05,548
这个给儿女的补贴

226
00:10:05,548 --> 00:10:08,869
最后都是从散户的账户里面掏出来的

227
00:10:08,869 --> 00:10:11,000
我去个股与板块方面

228
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,379
应用软件股呢全线走低

229
00:10:13,379 --> 00:10:15,000
IGB跌了3.9%

230
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:16,700
昨天市场狂欢

231
00:10:16,700 --> 00:10:19,059
纳指暴涨3%的背景下

232
00:10:19,059 --> 00:10:20,840
IGB居然都跌了1%

233
00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:25,940
相对半导体板块创下了史上最大单日相对跌幅

234
00:10:25,940 --> 00:10:26,899
消息面上

235
00:10:26,899 --> 00:10:29,480
继大模型能力竞赛之后

236
00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,859
ENTROPK呢推出了cloud管理智能体

237
00:10:32,859 --> 00:10:36,058
试图让AI直接接管复杂工作流程

238
00:10:36,058 --> 00:10:39,538
解决企业部署AI过程中最核心的痛点

239
00:10:39,538 --> 00:10:41,710
就是复杂性与工程成本

240
00:10:41,710 --> 00:10:45,669
将构建和部署AI的效率提升了十倍

241
00:10:45,669 --> 00:10:48,549
就是可以不用软件这个中介了哈

242
00:10:48,549 --> 00:10:50,058
直接跳过去呃

243
00:10:50,058 --> 00:10:54,479
同日meta也发布了新一代重磅AI模型

244
00:10:54,479 --> 00:10:56,490
这些进展被市场解读为

245
00:10:56,490 --> 00:10:59,610
AI正从辅助工具迈向执行者

246
00:10:59,610 --> 00:11:02,578
对传统软件形成了正面竞争

247
00:11:02,578 --> 00:11:07,038
因此呢AI颠覆恐惧潮又再次席卷了软件股

248
00:11:07,038 --> 00:11:10,149
虽然很多软件公司基本面尚未崩解

249
00:11:10,149 --> 00:11:11,909
业绩仍在保持增长

250
00:11:11,909 --> 00:11:14,190
但是软件企业未来的客户需求

251
00:11:14,190 --> 00:11:17,440
结构和商业模式不确定性显著上升

252
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:19,220
投资者信心崩溃了

253
00:11:19,220 --> 00:11:22,789
软件股整体估值从疫情高分八十四倍

254
00:11:22,789 --> 00:11:24,909
已经压缩到22.7倍

255
00:11:24,909 --> 00:11:26,649
与大盘几乎持平

256
00:11:26,649 --> 00:11:31,029
所有软件公司的护城河哈都需要重新评估

257
00:11:31,029 --> 00:11:32,309
从结构上看

258
00:11:32,309 --> 00:11:37,409
高估值依赖持续订阅增长的软件公司跌幅更大

259
00:11:37,409 --> 00:11:39,970
显示资金呢正优先撤出

260
00:11:39,970 --> 00:11:44,980
对未来增长敏感度更高的标的软件巨头甲骨文

261
00:11:44,980 --> 00:11:46,940
今天再次成为市场焦点

262
00:11:46,940 --> 00:11:50,240
公司正通过大规模负债推进MICHIGAN

263
00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:51,700
数据中心项目

264
00:11:51,700 --> 00:11:55,259
这笔融资属于美银主导的163亿美元

265
00:11:55,259 --> 00:11:56,320
结构的一部分

266
00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,440
尽管给出的7.5%的高收益率

267
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,589
吸引了包括黑石在内的机构资金

268
00:12:02,589 --> 00:12:03,589
但是据报

269
00:12:03,589 --> 00:12:07,559
参与融资的太平洋投资管理公司P扣啊

270
00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:10,620
正计划在4月17号交易完成前

271
00:12:10,620 --> 00:12:13,519
转让手中140亿美元的债务份额

272
00:12:13,519 --> 00:12:14,860
以分散风险

273
00:12:14,860 --> 00:12:18,039
目前呢甲骨文财务压力巨大

274
00:12:18,039 --> 00:12:20,000
处于财务困境区

275
00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,539
与其说它是一家科技巨头

276
00:12:22,539 --> 00:12:26,318
不如说更像是一只高杠杆的AI指数哈

277
00:12:26,318 --> 00:12:29,619
再用负债提前透支未来的增长

278
00:12:29,619 --> 00:12:31,879
如果AI这条主线继续兑现

279
00:12:31,879 --> 00:12:34,169
它的股价弹性会很大

280
00:12:34,169 --> 00:12:36,750
一旦这个兑现节奏不及预期

281
00:12:36,750 --> 00:12:39,129
那财务端的压力也会被放大

282
00:12:39,129 --> 00:12:41,990
如果你真的看好AI前景

283
00:12:41,990 --> 00:12:46,210
当前甲骨文这个转型期带来的股价回撤呢

284
00:12:46,210 --> 00:12:47,720
是入场机会

285
00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,799
138美元附近可以小量的试水

286
00:12:50,799 --> 00:12:54,940
130以下再开始认真考虑布局

287
00:12:54,940 --> 00:12:58,059
如果跌到120美元这种黄金坑哈

288
00:12:58,059 --> 00:13:00,429
那才值得重仓博弈啊

289
00:13:00,429 --> 00:13:01,549
千万不要蛮干哈

290
00:13:01,549 --> 00:13:02,490
如果要梭哈

291
00:13:02,490 --> 00:13:03,830
这个那几天后

292
00:13:03,830 --> 00:13:06,818
恭喜你可以入职美团送外卖了哈

293
00:13:06,818 --> 00:13:08,099
嗯要有节奏

294
00:13:08,099 --> 00:13:09,458
有仓位的控制

295
00:13:09,458 --> 00:13:11,739
用现在的耐心去换取

296
00:13:11,739 --> 00:13:15,809
未来几个月现金流改善之后的估值修复

297
00:13:15,809 --> 00:13:19,129
曾经风光无限的明星科技股ServiceNow

298
00:13:19,129 --> 00:13:20,129
股价也跌惨了

299
00:13:20,129 --> 00:13:21,350
昨天跌了3%

300
00:13:23,299 --> 00:13:26,220
从去年1月份的峰值240美元

301
00:13:26,220 --> 00:13:27,740
回撤了约63%

302
00:13:27,740 --> 00:13:30,309
而且完全看不出底部在哪里哈

303
00:13:30,309 --> 00:13:32,870
AI安全软件股RBRK

304
00:13:35,169 --> 00:13:37,649
股价也从高点腰斩了

305
00:13:37,649 --> 00:13:39,149
onto pick宣称

306
00:13:39,149 --> 00:13:44,240
它强大的新AI模型cloud meals在有限范围内发布

307
00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,720
已经发现了数千个软件漏洞

308
00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:51,460
包括各大操作系统和网络浏览器中的隐藏

309
00:13:51,460 --> 00:13:53,039
安全弱点啊

310
00:13:53,039 --> 00:13:55,960
这个就引发了投资者对传统软件公司

311
00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,629
特别是网络安全公司

312
00:13:58,629 --> 00:14:02,529
现有产品可能面临被AI技术颠覆的忧虑

313
00:14:05,230 --> 00:14:06,460
的一个重要原因

314
00:14:06,460 --> 00:14:08,460
网络安全龙头cos rick

315
00:14:08,460 --> 00:14:10,990
股价今天也重挫了7.5%

316
00:14:10,990 --> 00:14:13,429
前两年的市场宠儿PLANTIER

317
00:14:13,429 --> 00:14:14,509
迈入今年之后啊

318
00:14:14,509 --> 00:14:15,350
也不行了哈

319
00:14:15,350 --> 00:14:17,620
虽然跌的没有其他软件股多

320
00:14:17,620 --> 00:14:21,320
但是呢也叫高点回撤了快40%了

321
00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,820
大空头迈克berry长期以来就一直看空PLANTEL

322
00:14:24,820 --> 00:14:26,210
今天又踩了一脚

323
00:14:26,210 --> 00:14:29,370
曾plan提花20年做到的unto pick

324
00:14:29,370 --> 00:14:30,879
几个月就完成了

325
00:14:30,879 --> 00:14:33,440
先不说迈克berry他讲的对不对

326
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,120
这赛道毕竟也不同嘛

327
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,179
但他时机就跳的非常的好

328
00:14:37,179 --> 00:14:41,399
刚好在这个市场重燃AI颠覆恐惧的时候

329
00:14:41,399 --> 00:14:42,419
出来唱空

330
00:14:42,419 --> 00:14:44,460
加剧了这恐慌情绪

331
00:14:44,460 --> 00:14:46,379
导致股价进一步下跌

332
00:14:46,379 --> 00:14:49,259
所以资金现在啊也不敢流向软件

333
00:14:49,259 --> 00:14:52,100
只能继续抱团确定性高的硬件

334
00:14:52,100 --> 00:14:54,860
什么贯通性存储芯片等等

335
00:14:54,860 --> 00:14:56,779
AI基础设施板块

336
00:14:56,779 --> 00:15:01,110
估计要等到这个美联储继续降息啊

337
00:15:01,110 --> 00:15:02,980
甚至是大放水

338
00:15:02,980 --> 00:15:06,360
让市场流动性转好的情况之下哈

339
00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:10,309
这个AI软件板块才会重新得到炒作

340
00:15:10,309 --> 00:15:12,429
COVIPER今天呢股价上涨

341
00:15:12,429 --> 00:15:15,909
公司宣布与meta扩大了AI基础设施合作后

342
00:15:15,909 --> 00:15:18,039
政策承诺在原有合同的基础上

343
00:15:18,039 --> 00:15:20,460
再追加二百十亿美元支出

344
00:15:20,460 --> 00:15:23,730
新协议涵盖2027年到2032年

345
00:15:23,730 --> 00:15:24,269
此前

346
00:15:24,269 --> 00:15:25,809
双方已经签订了一份

347
00:15:25,809 --> 00:15:27,809
价值142亿美元的合同

348
00:15:27,809 --> 00:15:32,200
两份合同现在合计规模达到了350亿美元

349
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:36,279
让煤炭呢一跃成为cold wave的最重要客户之一

350
00:15:36,279 --> 00:15:40,039
同时也显著降低了COVID对微软的依赖

351
00:15:40,039 --> 00:15:42,419
客户结构进一步多元化

352
00:15:42,419 --> 00:15:45,659
在AI模型竞争压力加大的背景下

353
00:15:45,659 --> 00:15:49,549
meta系明显的是在加速投入算力资源

354
00:15:49,549 --> 00:15:53,190
而COVIE呢也预计双方的合作还会持续深化

355
00:15:53,190 --> 00:15:54,610
对于市场而言

356
00:15:54,610 --> 00:15:55,990
这一笔交易的意义

357
00:15:55,990 --> 00:15:58,710
不只是meta1家公司的采购决策哈

358
00:15:58,710 --> 00:15:59,990
它同时标志着

359
00:15:59,990 --> 00:16:04,169
coy的客户结构呢正发生实质性的改变

360
00:16:04,169 --> 00:16:08,078
并且也再次印证了AI算力需求依然强劲

361
00:16:08,078 --> 00:16:09,558
公司CEO透露

362
00:16:09,558 --> 00:16:11,359
完成这笔新协议后

363
00:16:11,359 --> 00:16:13,558
KY的单一客户营收占比

364
00:16:13,558 --> 00:16:15,940
将会下降到35%以内

365
00:16:15,940 --> 00:16:18,340
多元化水平就明显提升

366
00:16:18,340 --> 00:16:22,139
不过呃这个扩张的另一面是财务压力哈

367
00:16:22,139 --> 00:16:24,639
COVIV截止2025年底的账面在

368
00:16:24,639 --> 00:16:26,500
都已经达到二百十亿美元了

369
00:16:26,500 --> 00:16:29,879
今年3月份才刚新增了85亿美元借款

370
00:16:29,879 --> 00:16:31,950
用于扩建基础设施

371
00:16:31,950 --> 00:16:35,990
今天又计划发行30亿美元可转换优先票据

372
00:16:35,990 --> 00:16:37,789
受这些因素影响呢

373
00:16:37,789 --> 00:16:39,990
股价开盘后一度冲高回落

374
00:16:39,990 --> 00:16:42,669
但是在标普全球品级

375
00:16:42,669 --> 00:16:46,049
将COVID展望从稳定调整为正面

376
00:16:46,049 --> 00:16:50,349
同时确认该公司V加发行人信用品级后

377
00:16:50,349 --> 00:16:52,568
股价很快又修复了跌幅

378
00:16:52,568 --> 00:16:55,750
最终呢收涨3.36%嗯行

379
00:16:55,750 --> 00:16:57,730
今天我们就说到这里

380
00:16:57,730 --> 00:17:00,419
那我们明天见拜拜

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