BV1Gkje68EVE · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,320 Hello 2 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:00,820 大家好 3 00:00:00,820 --> 00:00:02,560 欢迎回到阳光财经周末点评 4 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:03,399 我是sunny 5 00:00:06,809 --> 00:00:08,650 接下来有6月节 6 00:00:08,650 --> 00:00:09,689 还有周末 7 00:00:09,689 --> 00:00:12,439 所以今天就是本周最后一个交易日 8 00:00:12,439 --> 00:00:15,140 标普指数今天上涨80.48点 9 00:00:15,140 --> 00:00:16,780 涨幅1.08% 10 00:00:16,780 --> 00:00:18,579 收盘一个小阳线 11 00:00:18,579 --> 00:00:20,239 最近有涨有跌 12 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:22,460 初步形成了一个整理形态 13 00:00:22,460 --> 00:00:26,100 将上方高点下方低点连线后发现 14 00:00:26,100 --> 00:00:29,179 目前可能在一个小的三角形整理阶段 15 00:00:29,179 --> 00:00:32,979 三角形整理是持续整理形态的一种突破 16 00:00:32,979 --> 00:00:34,679 方向是原来的方向 17 00:00:34,679 --> 00:00:37,539 如果进入三角形之前是上涨的 18 00:00:37,539 --> 00:00:41,359 那三角形结束后大概率还是继续上涨 19 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:43,479 那标普之前持续上涨 20 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:45,500 最近才进入三角形 21 00:00:45,500 --> 00:00:50,509 在三角形两条线即将交叉之际突破在所难免 22 00:00:50,509 --> 00:00:53,030 预计较大概率向上突破 23 00:00:53,030 --> 00:00:55,289 下一步就是创历史新高 24 00:00:55,289 --> 00:00:57,210 小概率向下突破 25 00:00:57,210 --> 00:01:01,149 形成一波小型的下跌行情后再拐头上涨 26 00:01:01,149 --> 00:01:04,730 纳斯达克指数今天上涨496.28点 27 00:01:04,730 --> 00:01:06,620 涨幅1.91% 28 00:01:06,620 --> 00:01:07,980 昨天没有复盘 29 00:01:07,980 --> 00:01:12,390 今天复盘发现本周的向上跳空缺口已经回补 30 00:01:12,390 --> 00:01:15,189 那么这一次的上涨跳空较弱 31 00:01:15,189 --> 00:01:17,629 没能形成跳空缺口支撑 32 00:01:17,629 --> 00:01:21,049 下一步那就有可能也是三角形整理 33 00:01:21,049 --> 00:01:23,789 突破方向有可能是向上为主 34 00:01:23,789 --> 00:01:28,168 道琼斯指数本周新高后进入了两天阴线调整 35 00:01:28,168 --> 00:01:29,879 但收盘是正数 36 00:01:29,879 --> 00:01:31,799 上涨了72.15点 37 00:01:31,799 --> 00:01:33,540 涨幅0.14% 38 00:01:33,540 --> 00:01:35,370 属于正常的波动 39 00:01:35,370 --> 00:01:39,030 其实科技股和传统板块还是有一定的互补 40 00:01:39,030 --> 00:01:41,849 当科技为主的纳指涨得最好时 41 00:01:41,849 --> 00:01:44,079 道指往往涨幅最小 42 00:01:44,079 --> 00:01:47,840 市场的热点只会集中在少数强势题材上面 43 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,459 大多数个股和板块似乎都只是陪跑 44 00:01:51,459 --> 00:01:54,200 看起来绿色上涨的板块很多 45 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,019 但主要涨得好的是半导体 46 00:01:57,019 --> 00:01:57,819 互联网 47 00:01:57,819 --> 00:02:01,049 硬件等其他板块涨幅较平 48 00:02:01,049 --> 00:02:03,329 传统板块则各有下跌 49 00:02:03,329 --> 00:02:05,849 今年到现在都618了 50 00:02:05,849 --> 00:02:08,229 硬件撑起了半年的行情 51 00:02:08,229 --> 00:02:09,669 手上没硬件 52 00:02:09,669 --> 00:02:12,090 这半年真的是白折腾了 53 00:02:12,090 --> 00:02:14,210 昨天美联储议息会议后 54 00:02:14,210 --> 00:02:16,469 我个人觉得卧室偏鸽 55 00:02:16,469 --> 00:02:18,990 但大多数文章和分析表明 56 00:02:18,990 --> 00:02:20,580 卧室偏英 57 00:02:20,580 --> 00:02:23,400 FOMC声明大幅缩短 58 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:24,599 精简扼要 59 00:02:24,599 --> 00:02:27,090 不给市场更多的想象空间 60 00:02:27,090 --> 00:02:29,250 删除暗示宽松的文字 61 00:02:29,250 --> 00:02:31,430 删除降息表述 62 00:02:31,430 --> 00:02:34,210 那因为删除宽松相关文字 63 00:02:34,210 --> 00:02:36,069 没有了降息的暗示 64 00:02:36,069 --> 00:02:38,939 市场就解读为鹰派务实 65 00:02:38,939 --> 00:02:41,180 希望改变与市场的沟通方式 66 00:02:41,180 --> 00:02:44,379 不再像保姆一样对市场呵护有加 67 00:02:44,379 --> 00:02:46,639 增加了市场的不确定性 68 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:48,259 在点政途中 69 00:02:48,259 --> 00:02:51,120 有八位官员希望维持利率不变 70 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:52,979 一位希望降息 71 00:02:52,979 --> 00:02:55,370 九位官员希望加息 72 00:02:55,370 --> 00:02:58,150 所以希望加息的总数比较多 73 00:02:58,150 --> 00:02:59,579 但不集中 74 00:02:59,579 --> 00:03:03,019 这九个人中有三个人希望加息一次 75 00:03:03,019 --> 00:03:05,338 五个人希望加息两次 76 00:03:05,338 --> 00:03:07,819 一个希望加息三次 77 00:03:07,819 --> 00:03:11,979 而另外八个官员集中认为利率应该维持不变 78 00:03:11,979 --> 00:03:14,959 一个官员认为应该降息一次 79 00:03:14,959 --> 00:03:17,158 主张加息的人占了一半 80 00:03:17,158 --> 00:03:18,938 但是卧室没有投票 81 00:03:18,938 --> 00:03:22,278 他认为在点阵图上打个点儿没有什么用 82 00:03:22,278 --> 00:03:24,528 反而成为市场的噪声 83 00:03:24,588 --> 00:03:26,329 在公开讲话中 84 00:03:26,329 --> 00:03:29,989 卧室也没有引用点阵图作为讲话PPT材料 85 00:03:29,989 --> 00:03:33,469 正在试图淡化点阵图的市场影响力 86 00:03:33,469 --> 00:03:35,090 市场分析文章认为 87 00:03:35,090 --> 00:03:36,889 有九人预期加息 88 00:03:36,889 --> 00:03:39,610 所以年内加息概率是百分之百 89 00:03:39,610 --> 00:03:42,219 认为这是一份鹰派的点阵图 90 00:03:42,219 --> 00:03:43,900 我说股市跌了 91 00:03:43,900 --> 00:03:46,879 解读成鹰派就比较能理解的通 92 00:03:46,879 --> 00:03:48,580 股市要是涨了 93 00:03:48,580 --> 00:03:50,439 华尔街那些人就会说了 94 00:03:50,439 --> 00:03:51,680 这个是鸽派 95 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:53,740 因为新闻发布会当天 96 00:03:53,740 --> 00:03:55,280 如果大盘下跌的 97 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,280 解读成鸽派就显得不合时宜 98 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,750 嗯与其说过是鹰派 99 00:04:00,750 --> 00:04:04,830 不如说他准备在工作风格和美联储内部运作中 100 00:04:04,830 --> 00:04:05,930 所做的改革 101 00:04:05,930 --> 00:04:08,340 是市场较为担心的部分 102 00:04:08,340 --> 00:04:11,800 而不确定性本身会导致股市下跌 103 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:13,460 股市一下跌 104 00:04:13,460 --> 00:04:16,278 卧室看起来就更鹰派了 105 00:04:16,278 --> 00:04:17,999 不过务实重申 106 00:04:17,999 --> 00:04:21,009 2%通胀目标是美联储核心使命 107 00:04:21,009 --> 00:04:24,250 坚持2%的通胀目标清晰传递 108 00:04:24,250 --> 00:04:26,529 美联储希望压低通胀的决定 109 00:04:26,529 --> 00:04:29,569 这本身让市场认为是鹰派的说法 110 00:04:29,569 --> 00:04:33,509 另外卧室宣布组建五个专项工作组 111 00:04:33,509 --> 00:04:36,120 覆盖美联储核心职能板块 112 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:37,660 包括货币政策 113 00:04:37,660 --> 00:04:38,699 沟通机制 114 00:04:38,699 --> 00:04:40,439 资产负债表管理 115 00:04:40,439 --> 00:04:43,439 宏观数据来源与数据依赖体系 116 00:04:43,439 --> 00:04:45,970 生产力与就业市场研究 117 00:04:45,970 --> 00:04:49,449 通胀政策框架与人工智能等新技术 118 00:04:49,449 --> 00:04:51,480 对货币政策的影响 119 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:55,490 改革的结果很可能是市场波动率更大 120 00:04:55,490 --> 00:04:59,850 五个小组中的一个是资产负债表管理小组 121 00:04:59,850 --> 00:05:02,990 这可能是握时缩表大计的第一枪 122 00:05:02,990 --> 00:05:06,629 沃什被认为是一个强烈想要精简资产负债表的 123 00:05:07,850 --> 00:05:11,810 没事乱缩表的结果就是市场流动性收缩 124 00:05:11,810 --> 00:05:14,050 对股市是一个巨大的利空 125 00:05:14,050 --> 00:05:17,129 另一个小组是沟通机制小组 126 00:05:17,129 --> 00:05:20,970 美联储未来与市场沟通方式将更加精简 127 00:05:20,970 --> 00:05:22,870 人狠话不多 128 00:05:22,870 --> 00:05:24,410 股市要是崩了 129 00:05:24,410 --> 00:05:25,310 也别想 130 00:05:25,310 --> 00:05:27,649 美联储看跌期权来救市了 131 00:05:27,649 --> 00:05:31,310 如果果真美联储不再想给股市兜底了 132 00:05:31,310 --> 00:05:33,959 那股市就更加扑朔迷离 133 00:05:33,959 --> 00:05:37,300 美国总统已经在G7国家的见证下 134 00:05:37,300 --> 00:05:39,100 签署了谅解备忘录 135 00:05:39,100 --> 00:05:41,449 远程完成协议签署 136 00:05:41,449 --> 00:05:42,769 所以原计划 137 00:05:42,769 --> 00:05:46,230 星期五在瑞士的签字仪式已经提前完成 138 00:05:46,230 --> 00:05:49,339 所以明天在瑞士开始初步谈判 139 00:05:49,339 --> 00:05:50,100 美国 140 00:05:50,100 --> 00:05:53,779 伊朗以及作为调解方的巴基斯坦和卡塔尔代表 141 00:05:53,779 --> 00:05:57,168 将按照原定计划在比尔根山会面 142 00:06:01,819 --> 00:06:05,079 消息面往停战谈判的方向走的话 143 00:06:05,079 --> 00:06:06,959 油价跌破了80 144 00:06:06,959 --> 00:06:09,019 随着霍尔木兹海峡重开 145 00:06:09,019 --> 00:06:09,699 通航 146 00:06:09,699 --> 00:06:12,079 原油的供应将得以恢复 147 00:06:12,079 --> 00:06:14,449 虚高的价格就会回落 148 00:06:14,449 --> 00:06:17,129 按油价多重顶的图形来看 149 00:06:17,129 --> 00:06:20,089 跌到70仍符合空头的目标 150 00:06:20,089 --> 00:06:21,649 关于space ex 151 00:06:21,649 --> 00:06:24,269 昨天有一个关于纳指权重的测算 152 00:06:24,269 --> 00:06:26,610 事后发现昨天我做的太急 153 00:06:26,610 --> 00:06:28,589 实际上是有差错的 154 00:06:28,589 --> 00:06:31,670 查AI得到答案有时候是不太靠谱的 155 00:06:31,670 --> 00:06:34,240 答案和问题的提问方式有关 156 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:37,420 所以当一件事不是非常确定时 157 00:06:37,420 --> 00:06:41,240 去找源头最权威的官方资料准没错 158 00:06:41,519 --> 00:06:43,560 那么纳指100的权重 159 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,879 在上次修订中是怎么说的呢 160 00:06:45,879 --> 00:06:49,399 我们就来看纳斯达克交易所的官方网站 161 00:06:49,399 --> 00:06:52,120 在今年5月1号的最新规则中 162 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:54,800 专门为市值前40名的纳指100 163 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,339 新上市公司开辟了纳入指数的快速通道 164 00:06:58,339 --> 00:07:01,920 从上市的第七个交易日就可以接受评估 165 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:03,560 如果符合条件 166 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:05,779 不久就可以纳入指数 167 00:07:05,779 --> 00:07:10,579 但到底是按流通盘还是总股本来计算权重 168 00:07:10,579 --> 00:07:13,740 这对SPACEX来说天差地别 169 00:07:13,740 --> 00:07:15,459 如果是按流通股 170 00:07:15,459 --> 00:07:16,689 那没有多少 171 00:07:16,689 --> 00:07:18,490 1000亿上下的市值 172 00:07:18,490 --> 00:07:20,490 能从被动基金里面拿到 173 00:07:20,490 --> 00:07:23,959 12亿到28亿之间的规模就差不多了 174 00:07:23,959 --> 00:07:26,100 如果是按总股本 175 00:07:26,100 --> 00:07:30,300 那2万亿的市值可以拿到几百亿的ETF资金 176 00:07:30,300 --> 00:07:32,339 股价肯定飞起 177 00:07:32,339 --> 00:07:35,220 在纳斯达克交易所官方规则中 178 00:07:35,220 --> 00:07:37,459 对指数权重做了规定 179 00:07:37,459 --> 00:07:40,220 那就是与流通股比例进行匹配 180 00:07:40,220 --> 00:07:42,519 随着流通股比例增加 181 00:07:42,519 --> 00:07:44,699 权重也将按比例增加 182 00:07:44,699 --> 00:07:46,519 所以刚开始时 183 00:07:46,519 --> 00:07:49,860 SPCX能够获得的被动资金配置 184 00:07:49,860 --> 00:07:51,569 规模是有限的 185 00:07:51,569 --> 00:07:54,050 这就限制了股价的想象空间 186 00:07:54,050 --> 00:07:56,709 将提前让股价回归基本面 187 00:07:56,709 --> 00:08:00,788 并且尽快反映出限售股排队解禁的压力 188 00:08:00,788 --> 00:08:04,369 网上有人整理出SPACEX解禁时间表 189 00:08:04,369 --> 00:08:07,759 最初一批解禁是在二季报后的两天 190 00:08:07,759 --> 00:08:11,680 持有人是早期股东和员工持股的一部分 191 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,470 释放的股数比IPO还多 192 00:08:14,470 --> 00:08:16,170 随着时间的推移 193 00:08:16,170 --> 00:08:19,410 每个月基本上都有大量解禁的限售股 194 00:08:19,410 --> 00:08:22,589 加上公司基本面仍无法实现盈利 195 00:08:22,589 --> 00:08:25,610 位列美股前十实在是非常突出 196 00:08:25,610 --> 00:08:28,158 股价可能会面临巨大挑战 197 00:08:28,158 --> 00:08:31,399 SPACEX的资本支出是源源不断的 198 00:08:31,399 --> 00:08:34,119 烧钱是公司运营的常态 199 00:08:34,119 --> 00:08:35,679 上市没几天 200 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,659 SPACEX又要准备债券融资了 201 00:08:38,659 --> 00:08:42,590 银行正在准备为SPACEX发债200亿美元 202 00:08:42,590 --> 00:08:45,649 用来偿还之前的一笔过桥贷款 203 00:08:45,649 --> 00:08:48,590 过桥贷款当时用于收购XAI 204 00:08:48,590 --> 00:08:50,620 将于明年9月到期 205 00:08:50,620 --> 00:08:53,620 用债券融资偿还过桥贷款 206 00:08:53,620 --> 00:08:57,259 是用低利率融资工具替代高成本的融资 207 00:08:57,259 --> 00:08:59,720 有利于优化财务成本 208 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,320 但是不可忽视的是 209 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:05,539 SPACEX的生意模式相当烧钱 210 00:09:05,539 --> 00:09:08,009 要看到它盈利还早 211 00:09:08,009 --> 00:09:10,789 即使上市初期自带了明星光环 212 00:09:10,789 --> 00:09:12,090 时间长了 213 00:09:12,090 --> 00:09:14,370 投资者付出了较高的估值 214 00:09:14,370 --> 00:09:17,159 必然会重新考虑内在价值 215 00:09:17,159 --> 00:09:20,409 所以我不太建议在股价大涨时追高 216 00:09:20,409 --> 00:09:21,529 一年后吧 217 00:09:21,529 --> 00:09:23,149 股票全流通了 218 00:09:23,149 --> 00:09:24,610 市场也理性了 219 00:09:24,610 --> 00:09:27,869 到时再看看有没有合理的入场机会 220 00:09:27,869 --> 00:09:29,629 SPACEX和特斯拉 221 00:09:29,629 --> 00:09:33,419 要在业绩上比肩其他科技巨头暂时有点难 222 00:09:33,419 --> 00:09:37,419 但毕竟大家都在最新的fab10名单内 223 00:09:37,419 --> 00:09:41,379 说到fab10是十佳科技巨头的总称 224 00:09:41,379 --> 00:09:43,100 包括原来的七巨头 225 00:09:43,100 --> 00:09:47,590 加上另外三家最新上市或即将上市的SPACEX 226 00:09:47,590 --> 00:09:51,970 OpenAI和ANTHROPIC都在fab10名单内 227 00:09:51,970 --> 00:09:56,049 就说明还是有主力资金看中马斯克的公司 228 00:09:56,049 --> 00:09:57,029 不缺题材 229 00:09:57,029 --> 00:09:59,129 没有也能生一个 230 00:09:59,129 --> 00:10:02,370 目前SPACEX上市也没几天 231 00:10:02,370 --> 00:10:03,990 但市场又在猜想 232 00:10:03,990 --> 00:10:06,509 特斯拉与SPACEX合并了 233 00:10:06,509 --> 00:10:08,570 马斯克最近行权了期权 234 00:10:08,570 --> 00:10:11,120 将特斯拉的期权转为股票 235 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,360 这些期权是2018年薪酬方案中获得 236 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,220 到期是2028年 237 00:10:16,220 --> 00:10:17,879 但是他提前行权 238 00:10:17,879 --> 00:10:20,480 行权后合计持有7亿股 239 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,529 占特斯拉股权比例19.9% 240 00:10:23,529 --> 00:10:25,230 马斯克最终希望 241 00:10:25,230 --> 00:10:27,649 并且一定能将自己的股权比例 242 00:10:27,649 --> 00:10:29,568 提高到25%以上 243 00:10:29,568 --> 00:10:32,489 对公司的控制权提高了之后呢 244 00:10:32,489 --> 00:10:34,089 市场就猜测啊 245 00:10:34,089 --> 00:10:37,289 他是不是想把两家公司合并了 246 00:10:37,409 --> 00:10:40,230 如果特斯拉和SPACEX合并 247 00:10:40,230 --> 00:10:42,399 必然成为炒作题材 248 00:10:42,399 --> 00:10:46,899 但是合并这种事儿可行性还是比较低的 249 00:10:46,899 --> 00:10:49,100 市场如果想炒高特斯拉 250 00:10:49,100 --> 00:10:52,240 那么可以利用合并的题材炒一番 251 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,320 不然最近特斯拉的走势不上不下 252 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,269 简直是在浪费时间 253 00:10:57,269 --> 00:11:01,070 今天我的持仓个股中涨幅最大的是高通 254 00:11:01,070 --> 00:11:03,500 别拿高通不当半导体 255 00:11:03,500 --> 00:11:05,480 半导体整个板块都涨 256 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:07,279 高通也就补涨了 257 00:11:07,279 --> 00:11:10,240 以前买来的时候越看越不顺眼 258 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,309 差点底部下了割肉 259 00:11:12,309 --> 00:11:14,450 至于仓位大的特斯拉 260 00:11:14,450 --> 00:11:16,359 今天也小涨了一点 261 00:11:16,359 --> 00:11:19,019 因此今天盈利3209 262 00:11:19,019 --> 00:11:21,129 截图净值20.8万 263 00:11:21,129 --> 00:11:23,389 今年没有存储和半导体呀 264 00:11:23,389 --> 00:11:24,950 账户都不怎么赚钱 265 00:11:24,950 --> 00:11:27,399 感觉错过了好多机会 266 00:11:27,399 --> 00:11:30,740 今天川普高调唱多英特尔说 267 00:11:30,740 --> 00:11:33,279 美国政府入股英特尔10%的股份 268 00:11:33,279 --> 00:11:36,039 提出报价时市值是1000亿 269 00:11:36,039 --> 00:11:38,039 现在超过6000亿 270 00:11:38,039 --> 00:11:39,480 短短九个月 271 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,419 英特尔的市值就增长了5000亿 272 00:11:42,419 --> 00:11:47,879 川普称苹果与英特尔合作在美国生产电脑芯片 273 00:11:47,879 --> 00:11:48,700 唉 274 00:11:48,700 --> 00:11:50,960 谁和苹果合作谁上涨 275 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,580 英特尔今天上涨10.64% 276 00:11:53,580 --> 00:11:54,970 创了新高 277 00:11:54,970 --> 00:11:56,250 总统吹票 278 00:11:56,250 --> 00:11:56,970 英特尔 279 00:11:56,970 --> 00:11:59,210 黄仁勋吹票迈威尔唉 280 00:11:59,210 --> 00:12:02,250 都是不断上涨1万亿在招手 281 00:12:02,250 --> 00:12:04,009 股市除了基本面 282 00:12:04,009 --> 00:12:04,850 资金面 283 00:12:04,850 --> 00:12:05,879 技术面 284 00:12:05,879 --> 00:12:07,100 有号召力的人 285 00:12:07,100 --> 00:12:08,860 吹票可以带来人气 286 00:12:08,860 --> 00:12:12,279 人气集中了股票就涨个不停 287 00:12:12,279 --> 00:12:15,399 跨年的存储牛股今天继续大涨 288 00:12:15,399 --> 00:12:17,690 上涨起来没有什么压力 289 00:12:17,690 --> 00:12:22,330 闪迪SDK今天又轻松涨了11.34% 290 00:12:22,330 --> 00:12:23,779 再创新高 291 00:12:23,779 --> 00:12:25,159 2200元 292 00:12:25,159 --> 00:12:27,429 蜡如入无人之境 293 00:12:27,429 --> 00:12:31,529 像这样的个股只能按顺趋势看涨来处理 294 00:12:31,529 --> 00:12:33,169 和之前说的一样 295 00:12:33,169 --> 00:12:35,289 买了很快就赚钱 296 00:12:35,289 --> 00:12:37,610 适合短炒个股 297 00:12:37,610 --> 00:12:38,450 让人害怕 298 00:12:38,450 --> 00:12:39,990 可以考虑ETF 299 00:12:39,990 --> 00:12:44,519 有一支专门做存储的ETF是DRAM重仓 300 00:12:44,519 --> 00:12:46,219 韩国三星和海力士 301 00:12:46,219 --> 00:12:48,818 也持有美股存储巨头美光等 302 00:12:48,818 --> 00:12:51,899 可以作为一个小型的分散投资组合 303 00:12:51,899 --> 00:12:54,659 微软MSFT这支股 304 00:12:54,659 --> 00:12:57,659 调整起来应该达到最近20年之最了吧 305 00:12:57,659 --> 00:12:59,740 从时间和空间上 306 00:12:59,980 --> 00:13:01,460 微软跌了这么久 307 00:13:01,460 --> 00:13:02,659 跌了这么多 308 00:13:02,659 --> 00:13:04,600 公司并没有走下坡路 309 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:07,559 也没有像市场担心的那么危险 310 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,000 但是两周多以前 311 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:11,559 微软和英伟达合作 312 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,759 AIPC形态上形成了头肩底 313 00:13:14,759 --> 00:13:18,389 巨头的头肩底可靠程度很高了吧 314 00:13:18,389 --> 00:13:20,190 但是奇葩的是 315 00:13:20,190 --> 00:13:24,049 微软头肩底形成后居然连续跌了十天 316 00:13:24,049 --> 00:13:26,850 反弹一跌又继续跌 317 00:13:26,850 --> 00:13:29,250 虽然股价走势非常差 318 00:13:29,250 --> 00:13:32,629 但我感觉底部接近362美元 319 00:13:32,629 --> 00:13:34,950 应该是一个比较强的支撑位啦 320 00:13:34,950 --> 00:13:36,720 底部不远了 321 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,940 苹果这支股票默默无闻的也在创新高 322 00:13:40,940 --> 00:13:42,889 也在悄悄上涨 323 00:13:42,889 --> 00:13:45,889 这和极具爆发力的存储股相比 324 00:13:45,889 --> 00:13:49,629 我可以说苹果这种是行稳以致远 325 00:13:49,629 --> 00:13:53,409 今年秋季新推出的IPHONE18要涨价 326 00:13:53,409 --> 00:13:55,470 因为内存成本大增 327 00:13:55,470 --> 00:13:57,399 得转嫁给用户 328 00:13:57,399 --> 00:14:00,940 连苹果都不得不为内存低头呀 329 00:14:00,940 --> 00:14:04,899 可见存储股的供应短缺还在持续当中 330 00:14:04,899 --> 00:14:07,240 好那今天的节目就分享到这里 331 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:08,340 感谢大家的收看 332 00:14:08,340 --> 00:14:09,519 祝大家周末愉快 333 00:14:09,519 --> 00:14:10,759 我们下期节目再见 334 00:14:10,759 --> 00:14:11,480 拜拜
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