BV1Gjcfz6EJn · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,000 今天对于投资者来说 2 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:05,540 有很多关于伯克希尔回购股份的评论 3 00:00:05,540 --> 00:00:06,259 因为 4 00:00:06,259 --> 00:00:06,820 格雷格 5 00:00:06,820 --> 00:00:12,539 阿贝尔表示伯克希尔当前股价低于其内在价值 6 00:00:12,539 --> 00:00:14,390 如果你看看伯克希尔 7 00:00:14,464 --> 00:00:16,759 尽管股价刚刚上涨 8 00:00:16,759 --> 00:00:17,939 内在价值 9 00:00:17,939 --> 00:00:19,859 根据格雷格的说法更高了 10 00:00:19,859 --> 00:00:24,638 因此现在是重启回购并发表进一步评论的时候了 11 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:32,920 所以要讨论这个 12 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:36,090 我们需要计算伯克希尔的内在价值 13 00:00:36,090 --> 00:00:39,429 我感受到的关键点只是格雷格说 14 00:00:39,429 --> 00:00:40,409 沃伦 15 00:00:40,409 --> 00:00:42,500 我做不到10%的折现率 16 00:00:42,500 --> 00:00:44,299 像你那样 17 00:00:44,299 --> 00:00:45,780 或许可以做到7% 18 00:00:45,780 --> 00:00:47,520 这完全改变了结果 19 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,049 这将表明巴菲特 20 00:00:50,049 --> 00:00:51,670 格雷格是新人 21 00:00:51,670 --> 00:00:55,170 他也考虑了我们昨天讨论的新投资世界 22 00:00:55,170 --> 00:00:59,320 在通胀环境下回购伯克希尔比持有现金更好 23 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:05,920 因为7%的可能性胜过3%的利率且国债 24 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,890 无法为股东创造价值 25 00:01:09,890 --> 00:01:12,370 因此回购伯克希尔更好 26 00:01:12,370 --> 00:01:14,790 如果其他像苹果这样的公司 27 00:01:14,790 --> 00:01:16,549 我们也讨论过同样昂贵 28 00:01:16,549 --> 00:01:18,978 所以我们刚刚讨论了伯克希尔 29 00:01:18,978 --> 00:01:20,319 四十亿美元 30 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:20,778 四 31 00:01:20,778 --> 00:01:23,478 每年创造五亿美元的价值 32 00:01:23,478 --> 00:01:25,789 现在讨论内在价值 33 00:01:25,789 --> 00:01:28,308 这里是我们内在价值表格 34 00:01:28,308 --> 00:01:30,909 你可以从免费课程下载 35 00:01:30,909 --> 00:01:32,269 免费价值投资课程 36 00:01:32,269 --> 00:01:33,569 在下方链接中 37 00:01:33,569 --> 00:01:35,650 如果你有兴趣操作 38 00:01:35,650 --> 00:01:37,290 但这里是我们伯克希尔的数据 39 00:01:37,290 --> 00:01:38,349 我们点击它 40 00:01:38,349 --> 00:01:41,890 查看以十亿美元计的净利润 41 00:01:41,890 --> 00:01:43,989 我保守地填写了四十亿 42 00:01:43,989 --> 00:01:46,349 未来可能会有保险亏损 43 00:01:46,349 --> 00:01:47,359 类似的情况 44 00:01:47,359 --> 00:01:51,640 如果这四十亿以6%持续增长 45 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:52,659 折现率 46 00:01:52,659 --> 00:01:55,159 10%市净率2.5 47 00:01:55,159 --> 00:01:59,420 伯克希尔的内在价值是651亿美元 48 00:01:59,420 --> 00:02:01,500 如果你说那现金呢 49 00:02:01,500 --> 00:02:02,019 好的 50 00:02:02,019 --> 00:02:03,459 现金带来的价值 51 00:02:03,459 --> 00:02:05,599 让我们假设十二亿 52 00:02:05,599 --> 00:02:10,000 所以我可以扣除三十亿以六%的增长率 53 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:11,860 市盈率25倍 54 00:02:11,860 --> 00:02:17,300 因此内在价值为五百亿加三百亿 55 00:02:17,300 --> 00:02:20,240 再加上其中的股票部分 56 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:25,819 伯克希尔的内在价值总计一万亿 57 00:02:25,819 --> 00:02:28,199 这些收益还会增长 58 00:02:28,199 --> 00:02:32,620 因此未来价值也会更高 59 00:02:32,620 --> 00:02:33,199 然而 60 00:02:33,199 --> 00:02:35,000 让我展示一下 61 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:36,560 这是折现率 62 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,930 如果从10%降至7% 63 00:02:39,930 --> 00:02:44,930 内在价值已接近九百亿 64 00:02:44,930 --> 00:02:47,069 加上两百亿股票价值 65 00:02:47,069 --> 00:02:48,849 已经超过一点 66 00:02:48,849 --> 00:02:50,250 一万亿 67 00:02:50,250 --> 00:02:50,810 当然 68 00:02:50,810 --> 00:02:52,629 在最坏情况下 69 00:02:52,629 --> 00:02:56,009 伯克希尔被定价为行业12倍市盈率 70 00:02:56,009 --> 00:02:57,469 作为保险公司 71 00:02:57,469 --> 00:02:59,050 十年后巴菲特不在了 72 00:02:59,050 --> 00:03:00,780 格雷格犯了些错误 73 00:03:00,780 --> 00:03:06,569 此时企业价值与现在相差无几 74 00:03:06,569 --> 00:03:07,849 所以阿贝尔说 75 00:03:07,849 --> 00:03:09,310 我可以做到沃伦 76 00:03:09,310 --> 00:03:10,629 我可以做到7% 77 00:03:10,629 --> 00:03:12,919 我认为更合理 78 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:14,159 更理性 79 00:03:14,159 --> 00:03:15,180 更安全 80 00:03:15,180 --> 00:03:17,219 他瞄准的是什么 81 00:03:17,219 --> 00:03:19,370 他确信能实现的目标 82 00:03:19,370 --> 00:03:22,169 新的投资世界充满资金 83 00:03:22,169 --> 00:03:23,569 意味着通胀 84 00:03:23,569 --> 00:03:28,129 下一场危机已导致就业放缓 85 00:03:28,129 --> 00:03:31,310 美联储已表示需要应对 86 00:03:31,310 --> 00:03:32,550 印更多钞票 87 00:03:32,550 --> 00:03:34,699 因为这是大家喜欢的 88 00:03:34,699 --> 00:03:36,039 没人抱怨 89 00:03:36,039 --> 00:03:38,879 政府会喜欢多印钞 90 00:03:38,879 --> 00:03:41,139 以便扩大赤字 91 00:03:41,139 --> 00:03:42,740 降低利率 92 00:03:42,740 --> 00:03:44,699 债务无问题 93 00:03:44,699 --> 00:03:47,360 但这可能引发通胀 94 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:49,460 有时无法预测 95 00:03:55,729 --> 00:03:58,759 现金是垃圾格雷格 96 00:03:58,759 --> 00:03:59,780 戈贝尔深知 97 00:03:59,780 --> 00:04:02,099 他无法像巴菲特那样择时 98 00:04:02,099 --> 00:04:03,360 然而 99 00:04:03,370 --> 00:04:06,849 现在纯价值投资更难了 100 00:04:06,849 --> 00:04:08,669 在这个市场中竞争更加艰难 101 00:04:08,669 --> 00:04:11,460 拥有三百七十亿美元现金 102 00:04:11,460 --> 00:04:14,199 因为你要与被动型私人零售竞争 103 00:04:14,199 --> 00:04:16,038 这让人疯狂 104 00:04:16,038 --> 00:04:21,178 因此伯克希尔在内在价值计算时接受了更低回报 105 00:04:21,178 --> 00:04:25,430 他只需做好工作管理庞大规模 106 00:04:25,430 --> 00:04:28,470 伯克希尔的回购计划规模有多大 107 00:04:28,470 --> 00:04:29,269 这是一个问题 108 00:04:29,269 --> 00:04:30,829 一百亿美元 109 00:04:30,829 --> 00:04:33,370 取决于他们能购买多少 110 00:04:33,370 --> 00:04:34,970 而不推高股价 111 00:04:34,970 --> 00:04:38,110 我认为他们有三百零七亿美元现金 112 00:04:38,110 --> 00:04:40,509 创造四十亿美元价值 113 00:04:40,509 --> 00:04:41,509 每年新增价值 114 00:04:41,509 --> 00:04:46,449 他们可以用四十亿美元用于回购并维持现状 115 00:04:46,449 --> 00:04:49,649 在这个规模下操作难度很大 116 00:04:49,649 --> 00:04:55,220 通胀和战争等过去沃伦和查理能回避的事 117 00:04:55,220 --> 00:04:57,540 再次谈到内在价值 118 00:04:57,540 --> 00:04:58,709 一个简单的情况 119 00:04:58,709 --> 00:05:01,569 来自公司的三十亿美元运营利润 120 00:05:01,569 --> 00:05:02,370 你的比率 121 00:05:02,370 --> 00:05:04,149 十五倍即四百五十亿 122 00:05:04,149 --> 00:05:06,269 三百七十亿美元现金 123 00:05:06,269 --> 00:05:08,819 可用于投资业务 124 00:05:08,819 --> 00:05:12,199 这些业务能带来更多价值 125 00:05:12,199 --> 00:05:14,379 加上两百九十亿美元股票 126 00:05:14,379 --> 00:05:15,120 这就是一点 127 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:16,339 一万亿 128 00:05:16,339 --> 00:05:17,100 好的 129 00:05:17,100 --> 00:05:20,000 保险业务有两百亿债务 130 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:21,740 这部分可以抵扣 131 00:05:21,740 --> 00:05:24,540 但整体接近一万亿 132 00:05:24,540 --> 00:05:27,819 并预期五到六%的增长 133 00:05:27,819 --> 00:05:29,019 尤其是通胀 134 00:05:29,019 --> 00:05:31,860 通胀将助力伯克希尔多数业务 135 00:05:31,860 --> 00:05:33,439 保险业务影响不大 136 00:05:33,439 --> 00:05:34,759 但长期来看 137 00:05:34,759 --> 00:05:36,000 或许连保险也会受益 138 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:41,199 他们重启回购计划让我有些意外 139 00:05:41,199 --> 00:05:45,199 或许我对格雷格·阿贝尔分红更不意外 140 00:05:45,199 --> 00:05:46,000 但好吧 141 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:47,060 由于规模庞大 142 00:05:47,060 --> 00:05:48,079 由于通胀压力 143 00:05:48,079 --> 00:05:49,000 由于预期变化 144 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:50,279 现金利率更低 145 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,189 大家都在讨论降息 146 00:05:53,189 --> 00:05:55,170 因此他们进行回购 147 00:05:55,170 --> 00:05:57,550 这是当前对股东的最佳价值 148 00:05:57,550 --> 00:05:59,029 相比公司规模 149 00:05:59,029 --> 00:06:00,610 你可以在这里看到 150 00:06:00,610 --> 00:06:02,620 随着股市上涨 151 00:06:02,620 --> 00:06:04,579 巴菲特开始持有现金 152 00:06:04,579 --> 00:06:05,639 二零二四年 153 00:06:05,639 --> 00:06:06,939 二零二五年 154 00:06:06,939 --> 00:06:08,839 现在我们到了二零二六年 155 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:12,860 利率显著低于此前水平 156 00:06:12,860 --> 00:06:18,129 这从国债中撤出十五亿美元现金 157 00:06:18,129 --> 00:06:19,269 当巴菲特投资时 158 00:06:19,269 --> 00:06:21,610 仅限自由国债 159 00:06:21,610 --> 00:06:22,970 弗雷蒙特国债 160 00:06:22,970 --> 00:06:25,649 我仍然认为它仍将是一座堡垒 161 00:06:25,649 --> 00:06:26,870 它仍将保持价值 162 00:06:26,870 --> 00:06:29,240 它仍将保持安全与谨慎 163 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,920 只是沃伦已不在其中 164 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:33,240 他无法管理 165 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:36,279 格雷格清楚自己能做什么不能做什么 166 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:37,740 再也没有查理了 167 00:06:37,740 --> 00:06:41,939 因此降至一档之下 168 00:06:41,939 --> 00:06:44,480 以六十七%的价值计算 169 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,019 保留十五% 170 00:06:46,019 --> 00:06:50,810 扣除百分之二十的巴菲特份额 171 00:06:50,810 --> 00:06:54,230 因为是规模问题 172 00:06:54,230 --> 00:06:59,709 可能也是巴菲特雇佣的经理之一是JPM 173 00:06:59,709 --> 00:07:00,870 另一位仍在任 174 00:07:00,870 --> 00:07:03,720 但他们未达预期表现 175 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:04,040 所以 176 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:08,500 他们无法完全复制巴菲特的做法 177 00:07:08,500 --> 00:07:09,939 这是一个故事 178 00:07:09,939 --> 00:07:11,569 这就是现状 179 00:07:11,569 --> 00:07:12,810 没有沃伦了 180 00:07:12,810 --> 00:07:15,569 他的业绩将永远被铭记 181 00:07:15,569 --> 00:07:17,310 但这是生活 182 00:07:17,310 --> 00:07:20,089 我认为关键在于规模 183 00:07:20,089 --> 00:07:22,910 他们必须妥善运用这笔资金 184 00:07:22,910 --> 00:07:23,689 否则 185 00:07:23,689 --> 00:07:27,038 将因通胀导致购买力下降 186 00:07:27,038 --> 00:07:29,759 通胀政府称三% 187 00:07:29,759 --> 00:07:32,298 实际通胀可能达五%或更高 188 00:07:32,298 --> 00:07:35,480 这也是需要考虑的因素 189 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,519 说到这一点 190 00:07:37,519 --> 00:07:38,839 感谢观看 191 00:07:38,839 --> 00:07:40,699 如果你对我的工作感兴趣 192 00:07:40,699 --> 00:07:42,439 请查看下方描述中的链接
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