BV1GjEe6NE2a · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:00,400 Hello 2 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:00,900 大家好 3 00:00:00,900 --> 00:00:02,040 欢迎回到阳光财经 4 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:02,799 我是sunny 5 00:00:02,799 --> 00:00:05,759 今天是2026年6月10号星期三 6 00:00:08,859 --> 00:00:10,500 跌幅1.62% 7 00:00:10,500 --> 00:00:14,468 昨天大盘探底回升之后形成了长下影线 8 00:00:18,649 --> 00:00:20,949 形成了一个光脚的阴线 9 00:00:20,949 --> 00:00:21,510 呃 10 00:00:21,510 --> 00:00:22,890 今天没有大长腿 11 00:00:22,890 --> 00:00:25,449 意味着昨天的长腿也是假的 12 00:00:25,449 --> 00:00:31,109 又多用的标普指数光脚阴线提示后市还有进一步下跌空间 13 00:00:31,109 --> 00:00:32,689 有可能继续下跌 14 00:00:32,689 --> 00:00:35,630 跌到7100去碰一下60日线 15 00:00:35,630 --> 00:00:37,600 再看看能不能止跌 16 00:00:40,399 --> 00:00:42,159 跌幅1.98% 17 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,159 连续四天阴线下跌 18 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,869 直奔2万4500点而去 19 00:00:46,869 --> 00:00:48,990 周K线连着涨了九周 20 00:00:48,990 --> 00:00:52,378 在第十周和第11周终于扛不住了 21 00:00:52,378 --> 00:00:53,918 趋势逐渐变坏 22 00:00:53,918 --> 00:00:56,959 但也还不至于直接判断牛市结束 23 00:00:56,959 --> 00:01:00,100 美国劳工部公布了5月份的CPI 24 00:01:00,100 --> 00:01:02,789 CPI是三大通胀指数之一 25 00:01:02,789 --> 00:01:03,789 数据显示 26 00:01:03,789 --> 00:01:06,709 整体CPI同比上涨了4.2% 27 00:01:06,709 --> 00:01:08,709 环比上涨了0.5% 28 00:01:08,709 --> 00:01:11,469 3年来首次突破4% 29 00:01:11,469 --> 00:01:13,310 虽然物价上升了 30 00:01:13,310 --> 00:01:14,989 但符合市场的预期 31 00:01:14,989 --> 00:01:16,870 并没有超过预期 32 00:01:16,870 --> 00:01:21,609 剔除了食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨2.9% 33 00:01:21,609 --> 00:01:23,799 环比上涨0.2% 34 00:01:23,799 --> 00:01:27,620 环比涨幅还略低于0.3%的市场预期 35 00:01:27,620 --> 00:01:29,198 还低于前值 36 00:01:29,198 --> 00:01:32,478 那这样的CPI并没有让市场大跌眼镜 37 00:01:32,478 --> 00:01:36,359 整体通胀率上升的主要原因是能源价格上涨 38 00:01:36,359 --> 00:01:39,019 而油价上涨早就被市场所了解 39 00:01:39,019 --> 00:01:40,180 并且接受 40 00:01:40,180 --> 00:01:44,780 因此突破4%的整体CPI基本上被市场所消化 41 00:01:44,780 --> 00:01:47,189 而核心通胀却较为温和 42 00:01:47,189 --> 00:01:53,170 市场认为这可能意味着地缘政治危机相关的通胀峰值可能已经过去了 43 00:01:53,170 --> 00:01:56,019 不怎么再担心通胀会全面失控 44 00:01:56,019 --> 00:01:58,200 川普听说通胀这么高 45 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,079 就说美国对伊朗战争结束后 46 00:02:01,079 --> 00:02:03,569 通胀会像石头一样掉下来 47 00:02:03,569 --> 00:02:05,969 所以今天的CPI没有暴雷 48 00:02:05,969 --> 00:02:09,870 市场随后也就没有觉得今年加息的节奏会加快 49 00:02:09,870 --> 00:02:12,579 这是今天股市的一个宏观利好 50 00:02:12,579 --> 00:02:15,469 但同时今天有地缘政治利空 51 00:02:15,469 --> 00:02:17,909 美伊谈判迟迟无法推进 52 00:02:17,909 --> 00:02:20,110 川普表示将重拳出击 53 00:02:20,110 --> 00:02:23,289 伊朗战火可能重新烧起来 54 00:02:23,289 --> 00:02:24,330 川普表示 55 00:02:24,330 --> 00:02:26,729 今天将恢复对伊朗的攻击 56 00:02:26,729 --> 00:02:29,569 伊朗在昨天击落美军直升机后 57 00:02:29,569 --> 00:02:34,009 又对约旦和科威特的美军基地进行报复性袭击 58 00:02:34,009 --> 00:02:39,439 一度可能要破位的原油价格也就保住了他那个90美元支撑线 59 00:02:39,439 --> 00:02:43,319 如果布伦特原油跌破90头部就会形成 60 00:02:43,319 --> 00:02:44,979 然后多头止损 61 00:02:44,979 --> 00:02:46,099 空头发力 62 00:02:46,099 --> 00:02:48,669 油价很有可能跌下70美元 63 00:02:48,669 --> 00:02:52,099 这样的话通胀和加息就弱化了 64 00:02:52,099 --> 00:02:54,520 如果反弹回到100以上 65 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,250 那继续上涨的风险就增加了 66 00:02:57,250 --> 00:03:00,009 不过油价反弹并没有涨很多 67 00:03:00,009 --> 00:03:03,599 目前仍不能排除油价头部形成的可能 68 00:03:03,599 --> 00:03:05,680 如果消息突然转向 69 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,139 布伦特原油跌到90以下 70 00:03:08,139 --> 00:03:10,370 美股将会拐头反弹 71 00:03:10,370 --> 00:03:11,750 最近美股下跌 72 00:03:11,750 --> 00:03:12,729 还有一个说法 73 00:03:12,729 --> 00:03:14,509 就是日本要加息 74 00:03:14,509 --> 00:03:16,159 资金要回流 75 00:03:16,159 --> 00:03:18,020 为什么日本加息 76 00:03:18,020 --> 00:03:21,229 美股的钱就被吸回去日本了呢 77 00:03:21,469 --> 00:03:23,969 日元几十年来都不要利息似的 78 00:03:23,969 --> 00:03:25,169 能借就借 79 00:03:25,169 --> 00:03:26,009 借来了 80 00:03:26,009 --> 00:03:27,169 立即换成美元 81 00:03:27,169 --> 00:03:28,590 拿去美国投资 82 00:03:28,590 --> 00:03:30,430 轻松拿下高利息 83 00:03:30,430 --> 00:03:33,069 这就是典型的日元套息交易 84 00:03:33,069 --> 00:03:36,189 借别人的日元来套美元的利息 85 00:03:36,189 --> 00:03:38,189 这一招天天赚利息 86 00:03:38,189 --> 00:03:40,300 炒家们玩了几十年 87 00:03:40,300 --> 00:03:43,319 但利率剪刀差是会变化的 88 00:03:43,319 --> 00:03:44,439 日元加息 89 00:03:44,439 --> 00:03:45,639 美元降息 90 00:03:45,639 --> 00:03:47,979 两者的利息差就缩小了 91 00:03:47,979 --> 00:03:50,360 套息就不那么有利可图 92 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:51,180 好啦 93 00:03:51,180 --> 00:03:53,519 最近是日元有加息预期 94 00:03:57,318 --> 00:04:00,769 把利率提高到30年来的最高水平 95 00:04:00,769 --> 00:04:02,248 说起来很可怕 96 00:04:02,248 --> 00:04:03,528 30年来最高 97 00:04:03,528 --> 00:04:07,209 那其实就是从0.75%加到1% 98 00:04:07,209 --> 00:04:09,209 但是看日元的走势 99 00:04:09,209 --> 00:04:11,508 感觉是消化了加息预期 100 00:04:11,508 --> 00:04:13,819 或者说加息幅度有限 101 00:04:13,819 --> 00:04:16,439 即使加息也是仅此一次 102 00:04:16,439 --> 00:04:17,680 下不为例 103 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:19,139 美元继续升 104 00:04:19,139 --> 00:04:20,759 日元继续贬值 105 00:04:20,759 --> 00:04:22,800 套息交易不但赚利息 106 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,079 还能赚日元贬值的收益 107 00:04:25,079 --> 00:04:30,959 所以我认为套息交易导致美股资本回流的说法应该不太站得住脚 108 00:04:30,959 --> 00:04:34,500 日元只有在一种情况下会疯狂升值 109 00:04:34,500 --> 00:04:36,500 那就是黑天鹅出现 110 00:04:36,500 --> 00:04:39,170 全球避险情绪急剧升温 111 00:04:39,170 --> 00:04:40,750 像英国脱欧 112 00:04:40,750 --> 00:04:42,670 美国遇到危机之类 113 00:04:42,670 --> 00:04:44,730 资金才会抢着卖出美元 114 00:04:44,730 --> 00:04:45,949 买入日元 115 00:04:45,949 --> 00:04:48,379 回日本去还掉借款 116 00:04:48,699 --> 00:04:52,170 目前这样的事似乎并没有要发生 117 00:04:52,170 --> 00:04:55,670 美元指数最近走强了接近100大关 118 00:04:55,670 --> 00:04:59,790 截个图99.99很快就会上100了 119 00:04:59,790 --> 00:05:01,910 美联储将在下周开会 120 00:05:07,009 --> 00:05:11,889 或者我们可以说距离卧室砸盘还有一周时间 121 00:05:11,889 --> 00:05:13,269 卧室讲话 122 00:05:13,269 --> 00:05:15,180 我判断凶多吉少 123 00:05:15,180 --> 00:05:18,180 他在金融危机时不支持量化宽松 124 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,779 沃什因此被认为是强硬的鹰派 125 00:05:25,779 --> 00:05:29,860 市场把他下周的首秀当做一个重大不确定性 126 00:05:29,860 --> 00:05:33,160 另外迫使主张限制前瞻性指引 127 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,399 淡化点阵图的作用 128 00:05:35,399 --> 00:05:37,220 从被提名到现在 129 00:05:37,220 --> 00:05:39,908 我们很少看到他讲什么长篇大论 130 00:05:39,908 --> 00:05:42,608 印象中仅有一次公开的讲话 131 00:05:42,608 --> 00:05:44,668 是在参议院听证会上面 132 00:05:44,668 --> 00:05:47,038 不得不讲的听证会证词 133 00:05:47,038 --> 00:05:48,899 一个弱化预期管理 134 00:05:48,899 --> 00:05:51,459 让市场自己去猜的管理风格 135 00:05:51,459 --> 00:05:53,879 无疑要加大市场的波动率 136 00:05:53,879 --> 00:05:56,139 股市容易一惊一乍 137 00:05:59,959 --> 00:06:03,519 他要管的只是充分就业和物价稳定 138 00:06:03,519 --> 00:06:05,120 股市好不好 139 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,649 只是美联储政策的副产品 140 00:06:07,649 --> 00:06:09,209 因为就业不佳 141 00:06:09,209 --> 00:06:10,350 物价下行 142 00:06:10,350 --> 00:06:11,430 降息了 143 00:06:11,430 --> 00:06:12,850 量化宽松了 144 00:06:12,850 --> 00:06:14,639 股市因此大涨 145 00:06:14,639 --> 00:06:15,819 就业太好 146 00:06:15,819 --> 00:06:16,879 物价大涨 147 00:06:16,879 --> 00:06:17,740 加息了 148 00:06:17,740 --> 00:06:19,579 股市因此大跌 149 00:06:19,579 --> 00:06:23,920 那美联储不是为了操纵股市而加息或者是降息 150 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,199 它的政策只是围绕就业和物价在走 151 00:06:27,199 --> 00:06:29,160 议息会议下周三结束 152 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:31,680 沃什的讲话有可能摔杯为号 153 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:34,269 成为股市下跌的又一个原因 154 00:06:34,269 --> 00:06:38,370 AI板块最近调整主要原因是涨多了回调 155 00:06:38,370 --> 00:06:41,019 但深层次的还是有一些问题 156 00:06:41,019 --> 00:06:45,399 这些问题最终将悄悄削弱美股这轮牛市的根基 157 00:06:45,399 --> 00:06:46,740 6月12号 158 00:06:46,740 --> 00:06:48,100 SPACEX上市 159 00:06:48,100 --> 00:06:50,379 从市场上拿走750亿 160 00:06:50,379 --> 00:06:53,379 另外两家人工智能大模型公司上市 161 00:06:53,379 --> 00:06:55,959 加上多家巨头的股票增发 162 00:06:55,959 --> 00:06:58,158 都是从市场上要钱 163 00:06:58,158 --> 00:07:00,978 这和股票涨跌还不太一样 164 00:07:00,978 --> 00:07:05,298 股票涨跌是场内玩家互相之间财富转移 165 00:07:10,759 --> 00:07:13,009 资金流出金融市场 166 00:07:13,009 --> 00:07:15,569 韩国的海力士在韩国暴涨 167 00:07:15,569 --> 00:07:16,889 人气爆棚 168 00:07:16,889 --> 00:07:20,889 结果SK海力士也要在美国上市 169 00:07:20,889 --> 00:07:23,629 海力士要在美股市场发行ADR 170 00:07:23,629 --> 00:07:25,149 也就是存托凭证 171 00:07:25,149 --> 00:07:28,750 让美国股民也能买到韩国的海力士股票 172 00:07:28,750 --> 00:07:30,170 就像台积电那样 173 00:07:30,170 --> 00:07:31,350 都是属于ADR 174 00:07:31,350 --> 00:07:34,009 预计可以融资140亿美元 175 00:07:34,009 --> 00:07:38,209 那那你说那些要资本支出的数据中心需要钱 176 00:07:38,209 --> 00:07:40,649 上市要钱也就罢了 177 00:07:40,649 --> 00:07:43,329 你这存储股今年赚大发了 178 00:07:43,329 --> 00:07:44,980 还上市要钱 179 00:07:44,980 --> 00:07:46,579 真的是六个字 180 00:07:46,579 --> 00:07:49,170 人傻钱多速来 181 00:07:49,170 --> 00:07:51,110 科技巨头很赚钱 182 00:07:51,110 --> 00:07:52,889 但也非常花钱 183 00:07:52,889 --> 00:07:56,079 未来3年还会大举增加资本开支 184 00:07:56,079 --> 00:07:58,439 那么钱从哪来呢 185 00:07:58,439 --> 00:08:00,139 都上股市要钱 186 00:08:00,139 --> 00:08:02,850 股市不是压力非常大的吗 187 00:08:02,850 --> 00:08:05,230 巨头融资有两种模式 188 00:08:05,230 --> 00:08:07,918 债权融资和股权融资 189 00:08:07,918 --> 00:08:09,798 债权就是发行债券 190 00:08:09,798 --> 00:08:12,519 借钱期限可以长达几十年 191 00:08:12,519 --> 00:08:14,699 到时再慢慢还钱 192 00:08:14,699 --> 00:08:16,519 摩根士丹利预测 193 00:08:16,519 --> 00:08:17,500 2026年 194 00:08:17,500 --> 00:08:21,399 与人工智能相关的债券发行规模将同比翻倍 195 00:08:21,399 --> 00:08:23,399 达到5700亿 196 00:08:23,399 --> 00:08:24,740 巴克莱预测 197 00:08:24,740 --> 00:08:25,899 包括谷歌 198 00:08:25,899 --> 00:08:26,779 亚马逊 199 00:08:26,779 --> 00:08:27,500 Meta 200 00:08:27,500 --> 00:08:28,079 微软 201 00:08:28,079 --> 00:08:31,759 甲骨文在内的云服务商将持续增加资本支出 202 00:08:31,759 --> 00:08:34,849 到2028年就会突破1万亿 203 00:08:34,849 --> 00:08:38,408 他们自身通过经营收入产生的造血能力 204 00:08:38,408 --> 00:08:41,679 将逐渐无法支撑如此巨大的资本开支 205 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,580 也就是说到2028年前后 206 00:08:44,580 --> 00:08:49,068 这些公司要拿出全部的经营现金流来支撑资本开支 207 00:08:49,068 --> 00:08:52,149 于是他们将不得不转向外部融资 208 00:08:52,149 --> 00:08:55,320 发行债券是比较不伤股价的方式 209 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,799 但是债券市场的承接力也是有限的 210 00:08:58,799 --> 00:09:00,799 如果债券发行多了 211 00:09:00,799 --> 00:09:02,399 负债率太高了 212 00:09:02,399 --> 00:09:03,840 利率就会上升 213 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:05,750 融资成本就提高 214 00:09:05,750 --> 00:09:08,230 就像今天公布财报的甲骨文 215 00:09:08,230 --> 00:09:10,230 就是借太多钱了 216 00:09:10,230 --> 00:09:12,328 借钱利率比别人高 217 00:09:12,328 --> 00:09:16,208 比债权融资更可怕的是股权融资 218 00:09:16,208 --> 00:09:18,950 当然现在的投资银行会包装 219 00:09:18,950 --> 00:09:22,090 把股权融资包装成债权的方式 220 00:09:22,090 --> 00:09:23,809 看起来暂时是债 221 00:09:23,809 --> 00:09:26,389 但远期会变成股票诶 222 00:09:26,389 --> 00:09:28,120 就是可转债 223 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,000 无论是直接攻股 224 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:31,820 利用新的股票融资 225 00:09:31,820 --> 00:09:33,700 还是先弄成可转债 226 00:09:33,700 --> 00:09:35,318 未来再转成股票 227 00:09:35,318 --> 00:09:37,698 最终都会增加股票数量 228 00:09:37,698 --> 00:09:42,649 股票和资金的关系有点像和面时的水和面粉 229 00:09:42,649 --> 00:09:44,110 资金不断增加 230 00:09:44,110 --> 00:09:45,950 而股票供给有限 231 00:09:45,950 --> 00:09:47,539 股价就会上涨 232 00:09:47,539 --> 00:09:49,980 反之股票供给增加 233 00:09:49,980 --> 00:09:51,220 而资金不足 234 00:09:51,220 --> 00:09:53,159 股价就容易下跌 235 00:09:53,159 --> 00:09:58,360 科技巨头增加负债发行股票最终都会消耗市场存量资金 236 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,929 对股市的未来形成负担 237 00:10:00,929 --> 00:10:06,049 美股的科技巨头常年回购股票是市场常青的基础之一 238 00:10:06,049 --> 00:10:09,529 那如果越来越多的股票回购变成增发 239 00:10:09,529 --> 00:10:10,309 公股 240 00:10:10,309 --> 00:10:12,909 市场变成熊市就不远了 241 00:10:12,909 --> 00:10:14,710 甲骨文盘后财报 242 00:10:14,710 --> 00:10:16,990 营收和净利润超预期 243 00:10:16,990 --> 00:10:19,649 但云业务收入不及预期 244 00:10:19,649 --> 00:10:22,269 四季度营收191.8亿 245 00:10:22,269 --> 00:10:24,230 预期190.9亿 246 00:10:24,230 --> 00:10:26,250 每股收益2.11美元 247 00:10:26,250 --> 00:10:28,289 预期1.97美元 248 00:10:28,289 --> 00:10:30,289 这两个数据都还不错 249 00:10:30,289 --> 00:10:33,090 但是业务收入99.1亿 250 00:10:33,090 --> 00:10:35,669 低于预期的99.9亿 251 00:10:35,669 --> 00:10:38,110 此外还宣布了融资方案 252 00:10:38,110 --> 00:10:42,769 要通过债权和股权融资结合的方式筹集400亿美元 253 00:10:42,769 --> 00:10:44,980 用于数据中心的建设 254 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,600 宣布增发股票融资70亿美元 255 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,080 用来购买人工智能服务器 256 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:57,159 这次增发将大幅稀释原有股权27% 257 00:10:57,159 --> 00:11:01,039 所以股价直接就把稀释的部分给跌完了 258 00:11:01,039 --> 00:11:04,519 有钱的没钱的公司都张开血盆大口 259 00:11:04,519 --> 00:11:07,889 提出了几10亿到几百亿不等的融资需求 260 00:11:07,889 --> 00:11:10,450 资金面压力将会越来越大 261 00:11:10,450 --> 00:11:12,570 如果美股在这一次调整后 262 00:11:12,570 --> 00:11:14,009 幸运的重新上涨 263 00:11:14,009 --> 00:11:15,490 再创新高的话 264 00:11:15,490 --> 00:11:17,909 我将会开始逢高减仓 265 00:11:17,909 --> 00:11:20,149 今年股市会不会崩盘 266 00:11:20,149 --> 00:11:22,250 AI泡沫会不会破灭 267 00:11:22,250 --> 00:11:24,720 是一个很多人在博弈的问题 268 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,139 大空头当然是早早做空 269 00:11:27,139 --> 00:11:28,740 等着市场暴雷 270 00:11:28,740 --> 00:11:30,700 那么预测市场上 271 00:11:30,700 --> 00:11:35,589 人们对年底之前AI泡沫破灭的压注和赔率是什么样的呢 272 00:11:35,589 --> 00:11:39,779 polly market预测年底崩盘概率是26% 273 00:11:39,779 --> 00:11:41,620 这概率不是非常高 274 00:11:41,620 --> 00:11:43,940 但是要让他押中了的话 275 00:11:43,940 --> 00:11:46,929 股市的损失将是几10万亿级别 276 00:11:46,929 --> 00:11:49,759 我们来看一下赌注是怎么规定的 277 00:11:49,759 --> 00:11:52,740 在2026年12月31号之前 278 00:11:52,740 --> 00:11:55,519 如果在90天内发生三件事 279 00:11:55,519 --> 00:11:58,359 那么就可以判定AI泡沫破灭 280 00:11:58,359 --> 00:12:02,659 这三件事是以下事件的任意三个赌注 281 00:12:02,659 --> 00:12:04,620 提出了六个可能的事件 282 00:12:04,620 --> 00:12:08,359 分别是英伟达从高点跌50% 283 00:12:08,359 --> 00:12:13,328 SOXX半导体ETF从高点跌40% 284 00:12:13,328 --> 00:12:16,849 OpenAI和ANTHROPIC宣布破产 285 00:12:16,849 --> 00:12:18,649 OpenAI被收购 286 00:12:18,649 --> 00:12:22,440 H100的租赁价格连续五天跌破一美元 287 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:27,859 主要人工智能硬件供应商的股价从历史高点下跌50% 288 00:12:27,859 --> 00:12:34,149 这些股包括台积电阿斯麦博通ANET和SMCI 289 00:12:34,149 --> 00:12:35,230 我在想啊 290 00:12:35,230 --> 00:12:37,110 股市崩盘概率26% 291 00:12:37,110 --> 00:12:41,000 有啥我的账户已经走出了崩盘的样子啊 292 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,620 今天亏了6898 293 00:12:43,620 --> 00:12:45,240 净值跌破20万 294 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,318 剩下的19.8万 295 00:12:47,318 --> 00:12:49,739 特斯拉的盈利回吐了许多 296 00:12:49,739 --> 00:12:53,740 SPACEX上市看起来对特斯拉是一个利空 297 00:12:53,740 --> 00:12:57,879 他分流了资金关注度和马斯克的经历 298 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,340 不过随着新股申购资金冻结的结束 299 00:13:01,340 --> 00:13:04,250 特斯拉的抛售压力可能会缓解一下 300 00:13:04,250 --> 00:13:05,789 6月12号以后 301 00:13:05,789 --> 00:13:07,870 SPACEX如果炒作翻倍 302 00:13:07,870 --> 00:13:10,000 特斯拉应该会被带起来 303 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,659 好吧今天的节目就分享到这里 304 00:13:12,659 --> 00:13:13,519 感谢大家收看 305 00:13:13,519 --> 00:13:14,820 我们下期节目再见 306 00:13:14,820 --> 00:13:15,480 拜拜
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