美股将在72小时内迎来两大关键考验。【2026-04-20】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年4月20号星期一

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今天大盘总算不涨了

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天天涨绝对不是好事儿

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步子大了容易摔倒啊

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跌幅0.24%

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盘中下跌后反弹有一小段下影线

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大V之后有这么一个调整

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非常正常

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而且早就该停下来休息一下啦

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其实我在6800点就觉得应该V完了吧

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结果V出新高啦

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也是服了

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纳指下跌了64.09点

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跌幅0.26%

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这样的调整整固是小意思啦

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目前美股大盘仍然可以顺势看涨就可以了

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恐高都恐了多少年了

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我记得纳指1万点就有人在恐高了

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那现在1万点都已经踩在脚下

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成为地基了

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回调的风险

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见顶的风险有没有呢

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那肯定有一点的概率

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但预测不到的情况下

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我们最好的办法就是看最小阻力方向

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现在各项指标都好转

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上涨最省力气

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下跌要砸非常多的筹码

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所以顺势就应该看涨

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虽然技术上看指数仍然是看涨的

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但消息面不稳定也很难预测啊

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未来两到三天美股迎来多重考验

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首先是美伊14天停战协议即将到期

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川普表示

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伊朗的停火协议将于美东时间周三晚间到期

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如果在这个之前没有达成协议

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他极不可能延长停火协议

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霍尔木兹海峡

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一会儿开

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一会儿关

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这本身就是谈判前获得谈判杠杆的手段

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美军于周末拦截伊朗船只

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这艘悬挂伊朗国旗的船

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从中国运的物资要冲关进入霍尔木兹海峡

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美军截停船之后扣留了美国

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除了封锁海峡

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还扬言说

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谁要是买了伊朗的油

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就在全球范围内公海搜查这些船

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这个有点像古代战争围城的版本

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围城断其粮草

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时间长了

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城里面就撑不住了

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为了在谈判中

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以尽可能低的成本转移伊朗的浓缩铀

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美国这几天并没有放松海峡封锁禁令

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甚至有变本加厉

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掐得太紧

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伊朗没命

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油价也会飙升

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为了打压油价

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美国同时还释放谈判利好

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让原油多头也不敢轻易做多

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现在如果高杠杆的做多

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原油要是谈判真的又谈了

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还谈成了一些条件或者停火协议延期

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这都将是原油多头的灭顶之灾

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而美股这边有了一次V型反转

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就是对股票空投的一次投资者教育啊

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做空美股是有可能

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随时被川普的帖子和万斯的谈判所噶空

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卖出股票并不一定能够规避多少回调的风险

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却有可能失去宝贵的筹码

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上涨之后舍不得买回

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结果越涨越高

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最后与牛股失之交臂

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标普指数号称长期年化回报率

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10%到11%

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听起来不多啊

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没有吸引力

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但是他回撤也很低呀

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波动率不高的标普指数也不是说不会大跌

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而是下跌幅度有限

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大多情况下回撤10%到20%

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少数情况下能回撤20%以上

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而那种跌了一半以上的回撤10年一遇吧

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所以有长期考虑的投资者啊

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会在出现罕见跌幅的时候果断买入

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从而达到收益率超过平均的10%

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实现超额收益

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我周末和大学老同学聊天

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我说你们要关注一下标普指数

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中年人啦

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要保护财富

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不要冒进

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结果人家就是瞧不上标普指数

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一年10%内点涨幅

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宁可今天创业板

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明天北交所到处追涨杀跌

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说10年才亏了70万人民币

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这游乐场的门票不算贵

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我说10年我搞标普都翻倍不止啦

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谁跟你说游乐场需要门票的

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我是来投资盈利的

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不是来打老虎机娱乐的

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为了选票

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油价是不能太高的

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今天有媒体报道说

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美国的汽油要跌破三美元

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得等到明年

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川普立即反驳说

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汽油价格会暴跌

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时间就在战争结束的时候

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意思就是说过几天战争结束

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油价就跌了

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不会等到明年

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为什么不能等到明年呢

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因为年底就要中期选举共和党的国会席位

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要是丢了一些总统的想法

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难以获得国会支持

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政令出不了白宫

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那总统当起来就憋屈了

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川普是不太允许油价到明年还这么贵的

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再来为了选票

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股市也是不能暴跌的

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股市暴跌

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经济危机

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人人退休金缩水

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有些总统经济没搞好

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危机了

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还在历史上留了个臭名昭著

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胡佛就是例子

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所以一边战争一边还得顾及本国经济影响

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互联网时代的总统啊

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理应是一个网红帖子

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一发预期管理就零成本完成啦

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有时我们说川普手搓K线操纵市场哈

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他的关联账户可能会谋取内幕交易的利益

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但从好的方面来说

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川普的帖子传播范围极广

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能够改变市场预期

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对稳定股市极为有利

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以前标普指数不会输给一场战争

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现在有了互联网传播效率的加持

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股市迅速脱敏

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大概率来说

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不管战争还是谈判

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标普指数继续长期向上的方向不变

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短线啊可能还是会有情绪波动

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但利空的边际影响将会越来越小

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在牛市中

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市场会将消息进行过滤

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好的消息是利好

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坏的消息呢则很快被消化

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利空影响不大

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在明后天伊斯兰堡第二次谈判中

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有可能又是不欢而散

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这样的利空不太可能

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再一次砸出美股的黄金坑啦

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但是如果停火延期达成协议

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美国撤军

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那股市就一片欢腾啊

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股市的另一个考验是卧室听证会

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要知道2026年一季度的股市调整

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总共有三个原因陆续出现

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1月份是卧室恐慌

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2月是软件股已死

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3月是伊朗战争

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分别主导当月的股市下跌

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让人恐慌的卧室

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明天就要去国会做报告

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拿到权力机构的批准之后

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即将掌管美联储

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影响未来美国经济时间长达4年以上

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美东时间明天上午十点开始

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参议院下面的银行

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住房和城市事务委员会召开卧室的确认听证会

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落实到底是要加息还是要降息

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是不是缩表

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这都严重影响中长期经济

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所以明天的听证会

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是决定全球经济方向的重要时刻

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川普提名卧时

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导致音乐股市下跌

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主要原因有这么几个

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第一个是美联储独立性问题

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美联储政策要独立

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避免短期政治博弈影响长期经济发展

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政客嘛4年一届

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长远的好处

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让位于眼前的收益

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最好马上提高就业率

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GDP以便于提高支持率

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赢得下一次选举

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美联储官员任期远远超过这些选举来的政客

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主张物价稳定和充分就业

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西方经济学思想深入每一个美联储

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经济学家的脑子里

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反面例子有1970年代

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尼克松总统

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要求保持低利率

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这个是70年代

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美国陷入10年的恶性通胀的原因之一

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所以当川普威胁美联储要降息时

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市场对美联储独立性产生了严重担忧

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川普千挑万选选了卧室

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是握时恐慌的一个理由

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今天已经流传出明天卧室要讲话的内容了

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这媒体也是非常厉害

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不知道从哪里弄来的讲话稿

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看着挺像是真的

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这个卧室听证会opening statement

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全文有五页

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上面写着发表讲话前绝密

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你看咱也能给大家搞来绝密

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文件内容显示务实坚定支持

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应该保持货币政策的严格独立性

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同时明确表示

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不受约束的运作

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务实主张在货币政策上保持独立

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但在非货币政策上面与白宫合作

225
00:09:28,620 --> 00:09:32,839
所以独立性这个事儿应该不构成大问题了

226
00:09:32,839 --> 00:09:34,038
讲话稿中

227
00:09:34,038 --> 00:09:36,578
沃什公开致敬了他的老领导

228
00:09:36,578 --> 00:09:38,359
也是他的良师益友

229
00:09:38,359 --> 00:09:40,860
顶级大鳄杜肯米勒

230
00:09:40,860 --> 00:09:43,120
那么这两人关系好

231
00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,039
对我们的股票有什么影响呢

232
00:09:46,399 --> 00:09:48,899
杜肯米勒宏观交易大师

233
00:09:48,899 --> 00:09:52,149
不知道他还不知道索罗斯吗

234
00:09:52,149 --> 00:09:57,289
索罗斯狙击英镑背后军师就是杜肯米勒卧室

235
00:09:57,289 --> 00:09:59,470
在稿子里直接管他叫导师

236
00:09:59,470 --> 00:10:01,309
叫他爱国者

237
00:10:01,309 --> 00:10:04,870
沃是在杜肯米勒基金里面投资了一个多亿

238
00:10:04,870 --> 00:10:07,210
这可是他人生中的贵人

239
00:10:07,210 --> 00:10:09,830
杜克米勒对他的影响是深远的

240
00:10:09,830 --> 00:10:12,750
这将会体现到他未来的工作中

241
00:10:12,750 --> 00:10:14,809
以前鲍威尔那帮人

242
00:10:14,809 --> 00:10:17,309
那是住在办公室里看死数据的

243
00:10:17,309 --> 00:10:18,649
天天上台讲话

244
00:10:18,649 --> 00:10:19,710
就是看数据

245
00:10:19,710 --> 00:10:21,090
走一步看一步

246
00:10:21,090 --> 00:10:22,659
Meeting by meeting

247
00:10:22,659 --> 00:10:24,340
数据指向加息

248
00:10:24,340 --> 00:10:25,539
它就加息

249
00:10:25,539 --> 00:10:26,759
指向降息

250
00:10:26,759 --> 00:10:28,029
它就降息

251
00:10:28,029 --> 00:10:30,690
但杜肯米勒和沃什这帮人

252
00:10:30,690 --> 00:10:33,230
不看那些过时的模型和数据

253
00:10:33,230 --> 00:10:35,519
他们顺着市场逻辑走

254
00:10:35,519 --> 00:10:38,059
市场要暴跌就让他跌

255
00:10:38,059 --> 00:10:40,460
股市一跌就放水救市

256
00:10:40,460 --> 00:10:41,849
导致通胀

257
00:10:41,849 --> 00:10:44,528
所以卧室从2008年那会儿

258
00:10:44,528 --> 00:10:46,860
就公开反对量化宽松

259
00:10:46,860 --> 00:10:49,899
这下美联储看跌期权没有了

260
00:10:49,899 --> 00:10:52,599
美联储不给股市打保票啦

261
00:10:52,599 --> 00:10:54,999
虽然没有在讲话稿里明说

262
00:10:54,999 --> 00:10:58,078
但落实要缩减美联储资产负债表

263
00:10:58,078 --> 00:11:00,559
这是市场预期中的

264
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,820
他极有可能采取的是缩表降息的路线

265
00:11:03,820 --> 00:11:05,279
非常独特

266
00:11:05,279 --> 00:11:08,159
市场预测它将会缩表1万亿

267
00:11:08,159 --> 00:11:10,909
这相当于是加息50个基点

268
00:11:10,909 --> 00:11:12,610
既然缩表了

269
00:11:12,610 --> 00:11:15,039
就可以用降息来对冲一下

270
00:11:15,039 --> 00:11:17,759
于是一边紧缩货币进行缩表

271
00:11:17,759 --> 00:11:19,620
一边降息放点水

272
00:11:19,620 --> 00:11:20,620
这样一来

273
00:11:20,620 --> 00:11:21,720
川普满意

274
00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:23,899
你要的降息我给你了

275
00:11:23,899 --> 00:11:25,919
但市场还不会膨胀

276
00:11:25,919 --> 00:11:28,200
通胀不会失控

277
00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,179
这个和杜肯米勒的宏观对冲策略

278
00:11:31,179 --> 00:11:32,519
学的有模有样啊

279
00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:35,009
下面讲一些个股

280
00:11:35,009 --> 00:11:37,889
MRVL迈威尔垂直上涨

281
00:11:37,889 --> 00:11:39,350
今天继续大涨

282
00:11:39,350 --> 00:11:43,419
迈威尔正在与谷歌谈合作开发两款AI芯片

283
00:11:43,419 --> 00:11:47,539
其中一款是内存处理单元和一款TPU

284
00:11:47,539 --> 00:11:50,960
此外英伟达已经承诺投入20亿美元

285
00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,950
扩大与marvel在高速AI互联技术上的合作

286
00:11:54,950 --> 00:11:57,769
这巩固了marvel在AI基础设施中

287
00:11:57,769 --> 00:11:59,870
核心连接器的角色

288
00:12:00,190 --> 00:12:03,629
股价直线上涨是市场对业绩预期的定价

289
00:12:03,629 --> 00:12:05,849
不太像是题材炒作

290
00:12:05,849 --> 00:12:07,928
如果能回调到5日线买入

291
00:12:07,928 --> 00:12:10,129
做短线可能会好一点

292
00:12:10,129 --> 00:12:12,610
有观众在油管评论区问

293
00:12:12,610 --> 00:12:16,409
可以说一说SPACEX合并特斯拉的事吗

294
00:12:16,409 --> 00:12:18,190
这问题问得我一震

295
00:12:18,190 --> 00:12:21,350
哎这两个巨无霸有可能合并吗

296
00:12:21,350 --> 00:12:23,940
还真有分析师这么预测啊

297
00:12:23,940 --> 00:12:28,429
WEDBUSH分析师dan arms在一份大胆的研究报告中

298
00:12:28,429 --> 00:12:30,490
重申了他长期以来的预测

299
00:12:30,490 --> 00:12:34,789
也就是特斯拉和SPACEX将于2027年合并

300
00:12:34,789 --> 00:12:37,909
但是我认为合并的概率非常低

301
00:12:37,909 --> 00:12:40,960
多半是分析师哗众取宠之举

302
00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:42,700
这两家要合并

303
00:12:42,700 --> 00:12:44,500
不是马斯克说了算呐

304
00:12:44,500 --> 00:12:48,110
是那两家股东批准还要监管批准

305
00:12:48,110 --> 00:12:51,129
反垄断基本上是无法通过的

306
00:12:51,129 --> 00:12:53,929
再说NASA也不会同意

307
00:12:53,929 --> 00:12:55,009
监管层面

308
00:12:55,009 --> 00:12:59,269
绝不会允许核心航天资产并入跨国制造业实体

309
00:13:03,090 --> 00:13:05,389
特斯拉在上海有工厂

310
00:13:05,389 --> 00:13:08,549
美国怎么可能同意合并这种事情呢

311
00:13:08,549 --> 00:13:12,570
啊想太多了好今天的节目就分享到这里

312
00:13:12,570 --> 00:13:13,429
感谢大家收看

313
00:13:13,429 --> 00:13:14,649
我们下期节目再见

314
00:13:14,649 --> 00:13:15,340
拜拜

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