【UNRIVALED INVESTING】Reddit 股票 (RDDT) —— 跌了 50%，现在是买入时机吗？

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今天更是又遭重创

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股价单日下跌约10%

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然而内部人士仍在关注

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发出疑问

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或许值得买入股份

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这是内部人士

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Iq

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这是Flash的高级功能之一

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指出Sarah Farrell

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内部人士Iq

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Flash指出

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还有其他内部人士也在购入

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但表示

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是的

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所以这

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你知道的

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大规模的内部购入令人 intrigued

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我们可能正在看到的牛市逻辑

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你知道的

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来自这次内部购入的信号

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她为何购入及对股票的整体看法

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然后提供我的假设分析框架

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如果你喜欢教育类投资内容

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欢迎点赞支持

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点击订阅按钮

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我是Daniel

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欢迎观看Unrivaled Investing

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嗯

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当你查看他们的财务数据时

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可以看到收入增长70%

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同比

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每位用户平均收入也显著增长约42%

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当看到用户收入增长

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再看用户基数

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这才是收入增长的核心驱动力

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我强调这两项数据的原因是

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我认为这很重要

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70%的增长

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广告行业并未以如此快的速度增长

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这意味着

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至少在2025年

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其他替代平台更高

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这就是它快速增长的原因

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用户也在发现其价值

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作为信息交流的媒介

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进行信息交换

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从这张幻灯片中另一个对投资者重要的关键点

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不仅是他们在抢占市场份额

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这是一盏绿灯

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但每位用户的变现率仅约六美元

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综合来看

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在国际地区

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约为两美元

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而美国地区现在约为十一美元

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如果与Meta相比

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在其所有应用和数十亿用户中

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他们的变现率接近二十美元

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所以

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十六美元

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最近季度达到十七美元

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当你思考这个业务时

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主要依赖广告

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我们稍后会讨论

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稍等一下

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你看到的是一家仍有大量增长空间的公司

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远超2025年看到的百分之七十增长

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每位用户的变现潜力从

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比如

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综合五美元提升至十六美元

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也许甚至达不到十六美元

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达到十美元

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加上用户增长

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你可能会看到

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哦

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明显的增长潜力

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这是我考察公司时看重的

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现在

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预期增长的速度或范围

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不同年份会有不同预期范围

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以及你希望采取的保守程度

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他们不仅有更高的变现潜力

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同时用户基数也在稳步增长

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日活跃用户增长近20%至1.2亿

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周活跃独立用户增长约24%

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同比去年增长4%至近5亿

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再次审视商业模式

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正如我之前提到的

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主要来自广告收入的七亿美元

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你知道的

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季度收入六千九百万美元

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看到的是六千九百万美元

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因此绝大多数都是广告收入

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他们还有一些其他收入来源

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例如

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他们已向不同AI实验室提供数据授权

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并向部分用户推出付费功能

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总体来看

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尽管这主要依赖广告业务

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广告部分的增长速度远超其他收入

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这一点值得重点关注

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现在分析这些不同板块

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正如我们所知

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剖析这家企业

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可以看到其营收增长迅猛

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正在快速增长

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不仅70%的营收

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而且持续增长

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你知道的

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美国市场接近70%

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国际接近80%

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这是一条全球化发展故事

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可见其毛利率惊人

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约90%以上

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可以看出其财务状况极具吸引力

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调整后EBITDA利润率

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核心盈利能力指标在最新季度达40%以上

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全年则接近40%

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这是一家现金流充沛的企业

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拥有非常诱人的利润率

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说实话这正是广告业务应有的表现

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他们能保持高盈利能力

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那么问题来了

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鉴于如此优秀的财务表现

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首先在发布第四季度财报后

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他们公布了第四季度财报

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并提供了第一季度指引

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说

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这就是我们的预期

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第一季度的指引显示

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预计营收将增长约5%

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同比增长3%

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通常我们会说

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不过

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这已是增速放缓

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从第四季度的70%

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出现明显减速

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从第四季度的70%左右

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坦白说

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即使这些数据也会让我认为

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这看起来很棒

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现实是

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我认为华尔街可能期待得更多一些

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因此股价实际上在次日收盘下跌

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它们开盘上涨

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但随后在当天逐渐回落

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在发布这些财报后

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这就是并且

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以及这一展望

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这一点需要理解

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由于中东战争的影响

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油价飙升

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你看

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各国正在讨论紧急措施

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他们即将耗尽有效资源

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这一关键能源来源

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然后引发所有下游影响

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所有投入成本

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你知道的

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石油作为这些行业的投入

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你知道的

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你还会看到次生影响

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化肥市场

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塑料成本飙升

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通胀风险进一步上升

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但对投资者而言最重要的是

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你知道的

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近35%

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40%

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这对广告业务意味着他们可能

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你知道的

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面临大幅亏损

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因为当出现衰退时

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企业往往陷入困境

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我原本为此制定了预算

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进行了这些增长投资

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现在却被迫持有

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或许我进行了这些招聘

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突然收入开始下滑

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因为人们无法承担更高能源成本

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在这种情况下

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首要采取的

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你知道的

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杠杆手段

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就是削减广告和营销

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你知道的

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你会开始削减核心部门

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在经历这些之后

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真正的衰退中

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你知道这几年

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新冠就像一个非常奇怪的现象

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你知道现金支票飞速流通导致出现疯狂的V型复苏

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就股市而言

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我认为广告公司能察觉到

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我们很久没见过这种情况

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这对广告预算意味着什么

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就像新冠期间

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再次出现大量

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你知道电商企业表现极佳

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因此这些企业的营销预算

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你知道大幅激增

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所以我认为必须认识到

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如果发生真正的衰退

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许多广告公司可能面临收入持平甚至下滑

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这会让很多人震惊

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但在深度衰退中

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这种事情可能发生

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我不是说一定会发生

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但谈到衰退概率

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升至35%

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40%

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这是一个

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这也是原因之一

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这几乎直接

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你知道

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必须认识到并非一定会发生

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但市场显示概率在上升

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此前被视为利用社区优势的支柱

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所有用户的语言内容可有效优化模型

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AI模型

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但他们发现实际上

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实际上

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部分模型

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Gemini和GPT-5

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可能更易利用YouTube转录内容

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更具对话性质

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YouTube可能成为默认来源

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或主要输入之一

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此前增长驱动力受压

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同时担忧其他平台分流如TikTok

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可在财报后立即看到

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平台如何提供独特价值

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TikTok平台相对宽松

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我们最大的价值在于互联网中最有人情味的地方

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这是一个有趣的评论

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他们谈论AI垃圾内容

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而这里你几乎感受不到

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这里

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大多数匿名用户生成更真实

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从而产生不可复制的有影响力对话

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在极少数案例中

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过程并不美好

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没有人追逐名利

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分享真实观点无需顾虑

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00:10:36,490 --> 00:10:37,049
关于某个话题

245
00:10:37,049 --> 00:10:38,610
这里有一种特别而稀有的东西

246
00:10:38,610 --> 00:10:40,429
关于匿名性

247
00:10:40,429 --> 00:10:41,389
匿名性

248
00:10:41,389 --> 00:10:42,909
所以我看这个问题

249
00:10:45,708 --> 00:10:47,668
但我认为这更偏向小众

250
00:10:47,668 --> 00:10:49,668
相比TikTok和YouTube

251
00:10:49,668 --> 00:10:51,529
小众领域也能成功

252
00:10:51,850 --> 00:10:54,169
但投资者的另一担忧

253
00:10:54,169 --> 00:10:57,690
我们稍后会讨论，就是等待

254
00:10:57,690 --> 00:10:58,110
稍等

255
00:10:58,110 --> 00:10:58,610
你了解的

256
00:10:59,730 --> 00:11:02,090
你了解的价值主张

257
00:11:02,090 --> 00:11:03,789
我在阅读不同帖子

258
00:11:03,789 --> 00:11:06,879
浏览这些不同讨论线

259
00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,820
这不会被AI取代吗

260
00:11:09,820 --> 00:11:11,240
只需提出问题

261
00:11:13,299 --> 00:11:14,860
或询问YouTube

262
00:11:14,860 --> 00:11:18,578
或扫描海量网站

263
00:11:18,578 --> 00:11:20,539
然后给出某种

264
00:11:20,539 --> 00:11:21,779
简化答案

265
00:11:25,299 --> 00:11:26,480
嗯

266
00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:27,720
长期销售表现

267
00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,919
可能严重影响增长

268
00:11:30,919 --> 00:11:32,679
这是存在性风险

269
00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:40,419
许多软件股因AI进步而下跌

270
00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,639
另一个因素是投资者关注内部增持

271
00:11:44,639 --> 00:11:47,600
但也注意到内部减持并表示

272
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:47,879
确实

273
00:11:47,879 --> 00:11:49,379
这对你来说是个很棒的购买选择

274
00:11:49,379 --> 00:11:50,500
你知道九百万美元

275
00:11:50,500 --> 00:11:57,559
但当有其他内幕人士以不同金额出售股票时

276
00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:58,879
即使是有计划的抛售

277
00:11:58,879 --> 00:12:02,309
这确实削弱了信心建设的作用

278
00:12:02,309 --> 00:12:06,759
也许这确实表明莎拉·法雷尔真的认为这里有机会

279
00:12:06,759 --> 00:12:10,340
但显然其他内幕人士表示这没问题

280
00:12:10,340 --> 00:12:15,250
你知道我很乐意再抛售五百万美元的股票

281
00:12:18,110 --> 00:12:20,730
如今股价已下跌约50%

282
00:12:20,730 --> 00:12:23,350
一如既往，这不是财务建议

283
00:12:23,350 --> 00:12:25,870
我只是分享一下自己的投资经历

284
00:12:25,870 --> 00:12:27,589
我是如何分析公司的

285
00:12:27,589 --> 00:12:29,269
顺便推荐一下多米尼克

286
00:12:29,269 --> 00:12:29,969
高级会员

287
00:12:29,969 --> 00:12:30,408
他写道

288
00:12:30,408 --> 00:12:32,048
我投资了大约六年时间

289
00:12:32,048 --> 00:12:33,980
早期我只是运气好

290
00:12:33,980 --> 00:12:38,000
自从2022年加入你们社区以来，我完全不知道自己在做什么

291
00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,539
这已成为我最宝贵的学习资源

292
00:12:41,539 --> 00:12:43,360
拉克什同样写道

293
00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:46,519
近年来投资就像赌场赌博

294
00:12:46,519 --> 00:12:48,539
快速获利和几次幸运交易

295
00:12:48,539 --> 00:12:49,779
但你的无炒作理念

296
00:12:49,779 --> 00:12:53,100
专注的心态才是让我选择跟随你的关键

297
00:12:53,100 --> 00:12:54,940
请保持这个独特优势

298
00:12:54,940 --> 00:12:57,668
如果你在寻找优质投资机会

299
00:12:57,668 --> 00:12:58,610
来查看

300
00:12:58,610 --> 00:13:00,129
顺便说一下，卓越投资

301
00:13:00,129 --> 00:13:04,029
我在卓越投资为订阅者制作独家视频

302
00:13:04,029 --> 00:13:06,049
当我发现潜在优质标的时

303
00:13:06,049 --> 00:13:06,980
我心想

304
00:13:06,980 --> 00:13:08,179
这是我最近买入的

305
00:13:08,179 --> 00:13:11,669
我上两周刚买入一只股票

306
00:13:11,669 --> 00:13:12,710
如果你感兴趣

307
00:13:12,710 --> 00:13:13,649
来看看吧

308
00:13:13,649 --> 00:13:15,710
这就是unravelinvesting.com

309
00:13:15,710 --> 00:13:16,809
如果你喜欢这个视频

310
00:13:16,809 --> 00:13:18,559
你也可能喜欢那些内容

311
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,100
我认为这里需要一点背景信息

312
00:13:23,100 --> 00:13:28,759
股价下跌的主要原因不仅是担忧

313
00:13:28,759 --> 00:13:30,259
宏观经济担忧

314
00:13:31,158 --> 00:13:33,190
或AI冲击业务

315
00:13:33,190 --> 00:13:35,389
但重要的是要反思估值

316
00:13:35,389 --> 00:13:38,730
股票此前交易价超过营收20倍

317
00:13:38,730 --> 00:13:40,370
这已是罕见水平

318
00:13:40,370 --> 00:13:44,129
有研究显示交易价超20倍营收的股票

319
00:13:44,129 --> 00:13:46,090
说实话，基准概率

320
00:13:46,090 --> 00:13:51,149
这意味着其作为股票组合的市盈率超过二十倍的概率

321
00:13:51,149 --> 00:13:56,779
后续表现优异的公司基准比例大约是20%左右

322
00:13:56,779 --> 00:14:02,298
最终交易市盈率超过二十倍的绝大多数公司

323
00:14:02,298 --> 00:14:05,619
通常在长期内大幅跑输大盘

324
00:14:05,619 --> 00:14:08,090
我认为这就是当前发生的情况的一部分

325
00:14:10,169 --> 00:14:13,049
但挑战在于其估值已变得过于昂贵

326
00:14:13,049 --> 00:14:14,029
即使你说

327
00:14:14,029 --> 00:14:16,789
我们下一季度仍将实现50%增长

328
00:14:16,789 --> 00:14:20,370
但估值过高时这点涨幅就显得不足

329
00:14:20,370 --> 00:14:22,610
这就是当前重要的市场动态

330
00:14:22,610 --> 00:14:26,269
我认为正接近一个非常值得关注的区间

331
00:14:26,269 --> 00:14:30,679
这取决于你对其未来增长的假设

332
00:14:30,679 --> 00:14:33,159
仍存在明显的增长驱动力

333
00:14:33,159 --> 00:14:36,440
我提到其用户基数去年增长20%

334
00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,679
我提到其变现能力持续增长

335
00:14:39,679 --> 00:14:42,700
他们仍有进一步变现的潜力

336
00:14:42,700 --> 00:14:43,500
这些用户

337
00:14:43,500 --> 00:14:47,879
他们与Meta存在约三倍差距

338
00:14:47,879 --> 00:14:51,779
还有为广告主创造更好价值的机会

339
00:14:51,779 --> 00:14:55,950
他们在最新信中提到布鲁克斯运动鞋

340
00:14:55,950 --> 00:14:57,850
伯克希尔·哈撒韦的子公司

341
00:14:57,850 --> 00:14:58,578
哈撒韦

342
00:15:00,798 --> 00:15:07,860
AI驱动的广告活动降低点击成本并提升点击率

343
00:15:07,860 --> 00:15:09,940
这就是我正在关注的

344
00:15:09,940 --> 00:15:11,019
我看到

345
00:15:11,019 --> 00:15:11,679
是的

346
00:15:11,679 --> 00:15:17,299
AI有潜力让商家体验更优

347
00:15:17,299 --> 00:15:19,578
我想在我的网站上做推广

348
00:15:19,578 --> 00:15:21,798
如果看到更好效果

349
00:15:21,798 --> 00:15:24,620
他们更可能加大投入

350
00:15:24,620 --> 00:15:25,960
你知道的

351
00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:26,899
助力提升

352
00:15:27,379 --> 00:15:28,899
未来收益

353
00:15:28,899 --> 00:15:31,860
现在回到存在性风险

354
00:15:31,860 --> 00:15:32,580
人们可能会说

355
00:15:32,580 --> 00:15:32,740
嗯

356
00:15:32,740 --> 00:15:32,980
丹尼尔

357
00:15:32,980 --> 00:15:34,200
你完全误解了重点

358
00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:35,519
存在很多方面

359
00:15:35,519 --> 00:15:36,519
拥有大量社区

360
00:15:36,519 --> 00:15:38,840
存在大量需求

361
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:43,169
这些在AI时代仍能保持价值

362
00:15:43,169 --> 00:15:44,370
也许你

363
00:15:44,370 --> 00:15:46,120
你在进行一个讨论

364
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:50,100
或是在回应突发新闻

365
00:15:50,100 --> 00:15:51,659
可能是小众爱好

366
00:15:51,659 --> 00:15:53,500
不要在某些人面前炫耀

367
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:54,019
你知道吗

368
00:15:54,019 --> 00:15:55,580
像大型语言模型这样的

369
00:15:55,580 --> 00:15:56,039
天啊

370
00:15:56,039 --> 00:15:57,450
那场比赛太精彩了

371
00:15:57,450 --> 00:15:57,909
不

372
00:15:57,909 --> 00:15:59,330
你不会真的要这么做吧

373
00:15:59,330 --> 00:16:01,070
或者说至少不太可能

374
00:16:01,070 --> 00:16:02,909
或许未来可能会有

375
00:16:02,909 --> 00:16:08,370
我认为Reddit的许多方面都将得到保护

376
00:16:08,370 --> 00:16:11,350
免受AI影响

377
00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:14,779
你知道它正在捕捉实时情感层

378
00:16:20,059 --> 00:16:21,759
因为大量突发新闻反应

379
00:16:21,759 --> 00:16:26,909
从广告角度来看可能不如某些

380
00:16:26,909 --> 00:16:29,809
假设高意图信息查询

381
00:16:29,809 --> 00:16:31,970
比如说查询信用卡

382
00:16:31,970 --> 00:16:33,409
最适合旅行的

383
00:16:33,409 --> 00:16:34,169
你可以说

384
00:16:34,169 --> 00:16:35,370
我很快要去巴黎了

385
00:16:35,370 --> 00:16:38,820
你知道我应该考虑买什么

386
00:16:38,820 --> 00:16:41,659
或者我想要换一辆新车

387
00:16:41,659 --> 00:16:44,470
或者我该考虑什么类型的车

388
00:16:44,470 --> 00:16:45,190
是的

389
00:16:46,389 --> 00:16:49,590
你会得到非常人性化的回答

390
00:16:49,590 --> 00:16:51,779
也许会有机械师说

391
00:16:51,779 --> 00:16:52,840
这就是

392
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:55,299
我们看到的这些车型的问题

393
00:16:55,299 --> 00:16:57,200
这种人文互动

394
00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,940
这种人文贡献很有价值

395
00:16:59,940 --> 00:17:02,840
但AI又进一步强化了能力

396
00:17:04,420 --> 00:17:06,450
抓取YouTube的评论

397
00:17:06,450 --> 00:17:09,230
从不同网站收集信息

398
00:17:09,230 --> 00:17:10,309
进行汇总

399
00:17:11,789 --> 00:17:13,589
获取信用卡资料

400
00:17:13,589 --> 00:17:17,838
从这些网站提取信息并呈现案例

401
00:17:17,838 --> 00:17:24,579
顺便说这些AI公司也对广告领域感兴趣

402
00:17:24,579 --> 00:17:26,019
以补贴

403
00:17:26,019 --> 00:17:27,400
他们的模型

404
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,220
所以他们可能会说

405
00:17:29,220 --> 00:17:31,180
我们采用免费增值模式

406
00:17:31,180 --> 00:17:31,819
你可以继续使用

407
00:17:31,819 --> 00:17:33,579
但我们将开始展示广告

408
00:17:33,579 --> 00:17:34,339
就像Netflix

409
00:17:34,339 --> 00:17:36,730
最终也做了所有谷歌

410
00:17:36,730 --> 00:17:39,880
领先的AI实验室本身就是广告公司

411
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,279
随着时间推移理所当然

412
00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:43,680
ChatGPT已明确表示

413
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,500
这就是他们正在考虑做的事情

414
00:17:45,500 --> 00:17:48,849
因此我认为这直接相关

415
00:17:48,849 --> 00:17:51,519
你知道这就像一种压力

416
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:54,009
随着时间推移

417
00:17:54,009 --> 00:17:57,190
或许下层分类仍能保持价值

418
00:17:57,190 --> 00:17:59,029
越往下你知道

419
00:17:59,029 --> 00:18:02,549
可变现分类仍能维持使用

420
00:18:02,549 --> 00:18:04,109
但高意图

421
00:18:04,109 --> 00:18:05,569
无限信息类

422
00:18:05,569 --> 00:18:08,818
可变现分类才是被颠覆的对象

423
00:18:08,818 --> 00:18:09,578
所以这是一个

424
00:18:09,578 --> 00:18:12,660
我认为这是长期存在的生存威胁

425
00:18:12,660 --> 00:18:14,259
在接下来五到十年内

426
00:18:14,259 --> 00:18:15,539
目前你还没看到这种现象

427
00:18:15,539 --> 00:18:18,269
但这值得投资者思考

428
00:18:18,269 --> 00:18:20,809
我认为管理层被特别提及

429
00:18:20,809 --> 00:18:23,670
你对这个管理层可以有不同看法

430
00:18:23,670 --> 00:18:23,970
说

431
00:18:23,970 --> 00:18:24,450
看吧

432
00:18:24,450 --> 00:18:26,089
人们不仅在评论

433
00:18:29,369 --> 00:18:32,619
他们正在讨论其AI驱动的搜索功能

434
00:18:32,619 --> 00:18:35,299
每个用户带来更多搜索量查询

435
00:18:40,279 --> 00:18:42,730
相比一年前的6000万用户

436
00:18:42,730 --> 00:18:45,130
这听起来很 impressive

437
00:18:45,130 --> 00:18:48,269
如果单独看确实如此

438
00:18:51,659 --> 00:18:53,778
但我要提醒

439
00:18:53,778 --> 00:18:56,480
一年增长2000万

440
00:18:56,480 --> 00:19:00,940
与AI实验室的 adoption 相比微不足道

441
00:19:00,940 --> 00:19:01,339
事实上

442
00:19:01,339 --> 00:19:07,349
他们声称在短时间内获得数亿新用户

443
00:19:07,349 --> 00:19:10,910
这也是为什么需要将此置于语境中

444
00:19:10,910 --> 00:19:17,109
越来越多的人会用AI进行搜索

445
00:19:17,109 --> 00:19:19,309
从6000万到8000万

446
00:19:19,309 --> 00:19:19,829
是的

447
00:19:19,829 --> 00:19:24,670
单独看2000万增长确实亮眼

448
00:19:24,670 --> 00:19:28,390
你可能正在失去搜索市场份额

449
00:19:28,390 --> 00:19:28,829
如果你

450
00:19:28,829 --> 00:19:29,809
如果你考虑

451
00:19:29,809 --> 00:19:31,910
我不认为这是快速抢占份额

452
00:19:31,910 --> 00:19:35,059
或造成剧烈颠覆

453
00:19:35,059 --> 00:19:37,839
这是投资者需要考虑的因素

454
00:19:37,839 --> 00:19:40,180
或许管理层反应迟钝

455
00:19:40,180 --> 00:19:42,490
在思考这个问题时

456
00:19:42,490 --> 00:19:44,289
这一点本身确实 impressive

457
00:19:44,289 --> 00:19:45,450
但等等

458
00:19:45,450 --> 00:19:48,970
这些AI实验室正在以数亿用户规模增长

459
00:19:49,130 --> 00:19:52,250
当我思考这个假设框架时

460
00:19:52,250 --> 00:19:52,869
当然

461
00:19:52,869 --> 00:19:54,470
股价会上涨或下跌

462
00:19:54,470 --> 00:19:56,730
最近股价在一百二十五左右

463
00:19:56,730 --> 00:19:59,319
或市值约两百六十亿美元

464
00:19:59,319 --> 00:20:01,160
他们确实持有大量现金

465
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,059
资产负债表上有约二十亿美元现金

466
00:20:04,059 --> 00:20:07,619
今年预计营收约三亿美元

467
00:20:12,099 --> 00:20:13,539
当你考虑这个问题时

468
00:20:14,740 --> 00:20:17,880
你有多确定

469
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,640
他们能维持高速增长

470
00:20:24,849 --> 00:20:27,670
假设明年增长30%至50%

471
00:20:27,670 --> 00:20:31,230
但如果你相信他们能持续

472
00:20:31,230 --> 00:20:33,150
假设增长25%

473
00:20:33,150 --> 00:20:34,309
那你可能会说

474
00:20:34,309 --> 00:20:35,170
这很有吸引力

475
00:20:35,170 --> 00:20:36,130
嗯

476
00:20:36,130 --> 00:20:37,819
那我应该行动了

477
00:20:37,819 --> 00:20:41,539
但目前我没有足够数据

478
00:20:41,539 --> 00:20:45,400
无法高确定性判断这家公司

479
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,279
能否增速超过15%

480
00:20:47,279 --> 00:20:49,880
在2026年后年化增长

481
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:50,960
这

482
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,039
展望未来仍有些模糊

483
00:20:54,039 --> 00:20:56,559
基于这种视角

484
00:20:56,559 --> 00:20:59,019
这就是我预估的最保守情况

485
00:20:59,019 --> 00:21:01,358
即15%的增长率

486
00:21:01,358 --> 00:21:03,239
这基于摊薄后每股收益

487
00:21:03,239 --> 00:21:06,529
因此名义价值可能略高

488
00:21:06,529 --> 00:21:07,849
所以我分析后

489
00:21:07,849 --> 00:21:10,390
我觉得这有点难

490
00:21:10,390 --> 00:21:11,049
呃

491
00:21:11,049 --> 00:21:13,170
从估值框架来看

492
00:21:13,170 --> 00:21:14,490
目前的情况是

493
00:21:14,490 --> 00:21:18,269
我非常期待你的反馈

494
00:21:18,269 --> 00:21:19,470
你对未来的看法

495
00:21:19,470 --> 00:21:19,849
嗯

496
00:21:23,130 --> 00:21:25,470
以及对商业模式的看法

497
00:21:25,470 --> 00:21:28,900
是否可能被AI颠覆

498
00:21:28,900 --> 00:21:32,059
或者你认为我遗漏了某些类别

499
00:21:32,059 --> 00:21:33,720
其中一些价值会保留

500
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:38,599
而我认为部分价值会随时间流失

501
00:21:38,599 --> 00:21:39,339
比如

502
00:21:39,339 --> 00:21:41,019
人们搜索习惯的变化

503
00:21:41,019 --> 00:21:42,930
人们使用习惯的变化

504
00:21:45,369 --> 00:21:46,490
希望对你有所帮助

505
00:21:46,490 --> 00:21:48,089
如果是这样的话，请务必点赞支持

506
00:21:48,089 --> 00:21:49,099
请点击订阅按钮

507
00:21:49,099 --> 00:21:52,240
如果你正在寻找这个动荡环境中有力的投资思路

508
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:53,079
快来查看

509
00:21:53,079 --> 00:21:54,980
Unrivalinvesting.com

510
00:21:54,980 --> 00:21:56,509
我最近完成了一项

511
00:21:56,509 --> 00:21:57,029
呃

512
00:21:57,029 --> 00:21:57,269
你知道的

513
00:21:57,269 --> 00:22:00,109
一封详细分析我持仓个股的信件

514
00:22:00,109 --> 00:22:03,170
油价上涨可能对它们产生的影响

515
00:22:03,170 --> 00:22:05,549
其中哪些可能表现更优

516
00:22:05,549 --> 00:22:08,250
我还撰写了一篇宏观分析文章

517
00:22:08,250 --> 00:22:09,549
专为我的订阅者提供

518
00:22:09,549 --> 00:22:15,039
探讨我如何应对未来可能出现的AI颠覆性变革

519
00:22:15,039 --> 00:22:17,240
如果这段视频对你有帮助

520
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:18,440
我非常感谢你的点赞

521
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:19,319
感谢您的观看

522
00:22:19,319 --> 00:22:20,799
Unrivaled Investing

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