【Graham Stephan】重磅：特朗普袭击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡封锁，全球经济要完？

1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,809
伊朗议会投票决定关闭战略要道霍尔木兹海峡

2
00:00:05,809 --> 00:00:06,650
如果我们行动

3
00:00:06,650 --> 00:00:08,009
实际上执行

4
00:00:08,009 --> 00:00:11,130
他们威胁要做的规模将是过去三倍

5
00:00:11,130 --> 00:00:13,449
冲击力度将是以往的三倍

6
00:00:13,449 --> 00:00:14,169
这将会是

7
00:00:14,169 --> 00:00:17,489
我认为这将是需要回应的重大升级

8
00:00:17,489 --> 00:00:18,370
不仅由我们

9
00:00:18,370 --> 00:00:19,050
还有其他国家

10
00:00:19,050 --> 00:00:21,219
以色列与伊朗的持续冲突

11
00:00:21,219 --> 00:00:25,339
可能使全球经济陷入衰退

12
00:00:25,339 --> 00:00:25,579
怎么了

13
00:00:25,579 --> 00:00:25,960
你们这些家伙

14
00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:26,760
我是格雷厄姆

15
00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,660
所以这不是我今天计划制作的视频

16
00:00:29,660 --> 00:00:33,539
但你得准备好接下来四到八小时内发生的事

17
00:00:33,539 --> 00:00:37,840
美国和以色列对伊朗发动了协调攻击

18
00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:41,280
针对波斯湾的核设施和海军资产

19
00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:42,200
因此

20
00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:43,460
伊朗进行了报复

21
00:00:43,460 --> 00:00:44,020
航运业

22
00:00:44,020 --> 00:00:48,119
石油和关键储备现在完全与世界隔绝

23
00:00:48,119 --> 00:00:52,619
冲突持续时间预计还将持续四周

24
00:00:52,619 --> 00:00:54,700
如果情况不尽快解决

25
00:00:54,700 --> 00:00:57,780
局势可能急剧恶化

26
00:00:57,780 --> 00:00:59,780
这就是我们需要重点讨论的

27
00:00:59,780 --> 00:01:00,479
正在发生什么

28
00:01:00,479 --> 00:01:02,399
为何市场开始恐慌

29
00:01:02,399 --> 00:01:04,640
持续升级的后果

30
00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:06,599
谈到石油运输

31
00:01:06,599 --> 00:01:07,439
食品价格

32
00:01:07,439 --> 00:01:10,099
以及整个经济

33
00:01:10,099 --> 00:01:12,879
因为现实是接下来的发展

34
00:01:12,879 --> 00:01:17,019
可能比人们预期更快重塑整个市场

35
00:01:17,019 --> 00:01:18,019
虽然在开始前

36
00:01:18,019 --> 00:01:20,519
我明白这些话题可能敏感

37
00:01:20,519 --> 00:01:25,019
但对观众来说有真实经济影响

38
00:01:25,019 --> 00:01:25,459
所以

39
00:01:25,459 --> 00:01:27,040
如果你关注突发新闻

40
00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:28,420
像这样的客观视频

41
00:01:28,420 --> 00:01:29,819
我们只陈述事实

42
00:01:29,819 --> 00:01:30,980
我会非常感激

43
00:01:30,980 --> 00:01:32,900
如果你点赞或订阅

44
00:01:32,900 --> 00:01:34,340
如果你还没这样做

45
00:01:34,340 --> 00:01:35,680
这对频道帮助很大

46
00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:36,640
非常大

47
00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:38,379
这完全是我一个人做的这些视频

48
00:01:38,379 --> 00:01:41,519
深夜或清晨赶工完成

49
00:01:41,519 --> 00:01:43,219
作为感谢

50
00:01:43,219 --> 00:01:46,590
我会尽力回复尽可能多的评论

51
00:01:46,590 --> 00:01:46,870
所以

52
00:01:46,870 --> 00:01:47,310
非常感谢

53
00:01:47,310 --> 00:01:49,930
同时也要感谢incognifor赞助本视频

54
00:01:49,930 --> 00:01:50,950
不过稍后再说

55
00:01:50,950 --> 00:01:51,310
好的

56
00:01:51,310 --> 00:01:53,810
那么在我们如何走到这一步以加速了解方面

57
00:01:53,810 --> 00:01:55,700
我们必须谈谈行动

58
00:01:55,700 --> 00:01:56,540
史诗般的怒火

59
00:01:56,540 --> 00:01:58,560
对于不太熟悉的人来说，过去一年里

60
00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:01,719
美国一直在与伊朗进行持续谈判

61
00:02:01,719 --> 00:02:05,340
担心他们可能接近制造核武器

62
00:02:05,340 --> 00:02:08,090
特朗普政府划定了明确的红线

63
00:02:08,090 --> 00:02:11,129
若不退让将面临后果，不幸的是

64
00:02:11,129 --> 00:02:11,530
不过

65
00:02:11,530 --> 00:02:17,539
当这些谈判未能达成协议，且情报显示伊朗可能在数月甚至数周内

66
00:02:17,539 --> 00:02:20,550
具备核能力，时间定在2月28日

67
00:02:20,550 --> 00:02:20,949
美国

68
00:02:20,949 --> 00:02:24,789
采取行动打击伊朗的核设施

69
00:02:24,789 --> 00:02:27,449
导弹生产基地和防空系统

70
00:02:27,449 --> 00:02:30,960
试图阻止其核计划进一步发展

71
00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,280
表面上看来成功了

72
00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:33,680
然而

73
00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:35,080
随后几小时

74
00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:36,560
伊朗并未退让

75
00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:37,039
相反

76
00:02:37,039 --> 00:02:38,019
他们进行了反击

77
00:02:38,019 --> 00:02:39,019
他们针对美国

78
00:02:39,019 --> 00:02:39,179
军事基地

79
00:02:39,179 --> 00:02:40,218
发动攻击

80
00:02:40,218 --> 00:02:42,299
袭击了附近盟友

81
00:02:42,299 --> 00:02:45,860
商业航班被改道或完全取消

82
00:02:45,860 --> 00:02:49,599
关键通道被关闭以切断全球联系

83
00:02:49,599 --> 00:02:50,199
事实上

84
00:02:50,199 --> 00:02:55,280
接下来几天将完全决定局势是稳定还是升级

85
00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,800
甚至可能改变整个经济走向

86
00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:02,139
这就是为什么现在最大的问题不是发生了什么

87
00:03:02,139 --> 00:03:03,939
而是接下来会发生什么

88
00:03:03,939 --> 00:03:06,419
就全球市场最大风险而言

89
00:03:06,419 --> 00:03:09,180
我们必须讨论霍尔木兹海峡

90
00:03:09,180 --> 00:03:10,020
对于不了解的人来说

91
00:03:10,020 --> 00:03:11,520
这是狭窄的水域

92
00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,389
将波斯湾与世界其他地区隔开

93
00:03:14,389 --> 00:03:16,689
就其重要性而言

94
00:03:16,689 --> 00:03:21,389
周边国家是全球一半石油供应国

95
00:03:21,389 --> 00:03:22,830
地理上

96
00:03:22,830 --> 00:03:26,349
它是波斯湾通往公海的唯一航道

97
00:03:26,349 --> 00:03:32,909
第三，伊朗可实际控制进出者

98
00:03:32,909 --> 00:03:34,530
这形成了完美风暴

99
00:03:34,530 --> 00:03:36,710
全球五分之一石油

100
00:03:36,710 --> 00:03:41,780
和三分之一天然气每日经此水道

101
00:03:41,780 --> 00:03:42,639
不幸的是

102
00:03:42,639 --> 00:03:44,300
几乎没有替代方案

103
00:03:44,300 --> 00:03:48,009
如果有人或物阻碍船只通行

104
00:03:48,009 --> 00:03:52,090
意味着这片狭窄水域实际上掌控了整个世界

105
00:03:52,090 --> 00:03:54,830
从利益角度而言

106
00:03:54,830 --> 00:03:57,620
诚实的答案是所有人，当然

107
00:03:57,620 --> 00:03:59,819
尽管这里84%的石油

108
00:03:59,819 --> 00:04:00,879
经过此处运输

109
00:04:00,879 --> 00:04:02,939
都会销往亚洲市场如中国

110
00:04:02,939 --> 00:04:04,020
保持通道开放

111
00:04:04,020 --> 00:04:08,800
释放其他国家的供应量帮助我们更具竞争力

112
00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:10,419
有助于稳定价格

113
00:04:10,419 --> 00:04:13,219
全球能源危机影响大幅减轻

114
00:04:13,219 --> 00:04:15,740
这一切都归功于所谓的过境通行权

115
00:04:15,740 --> 00:04:18,800
这是联合国海洋法下的法律框架

116
00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,550
允许商船通过霍尔木兹海峡等区域

117
00:04:22,550 --> 00:04:26,069
但在这2海里宽的过境通道中

118
00:04:26,069 --> 00:04:29,029
部分区域属于伊朗领海

119
00:04:29,029 --> 00:04:32,129
尽管他们迄今遵守联合国规定

120
00:04:32,129 --> 00:04:35,829
却从未批准开放过境协议

121
00:04:35,829 --> 00:04:40,819
这意味着他们可能关闭通道阻止船只通行

122
00:04:40,819 --> 00:04:43,560
而这正是周末开始发生的情况

123
00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,660
伊朗威胁要完全封锁海峡

124
00:04:45,660 --> 00:04:49,509
这将切断石油流动并瘫痪全球经济

125
00:04:49,509 --> 00:04:54,829
因此最直接的影响似乎就是油价

126
00:04:54,829 --> 00:04:58,949
美国每天消耗约2000万桶石油

127
00:04:58,949 --> 00:05:03,829
使我们成为全球最大石油消费国

128
00:05:03,829 --> 00:05:07,600
但有个问题

129
00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:09,459
我们每日仅产1860万桶石油

130
00:05:09,459 --> 00:05:12,779
必须依赖其他国家填补缺口

131
00:05:12,779 --> 00:05:14,500
事情变得有趣了

132
00:05:14,500 --> 00:05:18,000
若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁哪怕暂时

133
00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:19,019
突然间

134
00:05:19,019 --> 00:05:20,459
油价将上涨

135
00:05:20,459 --> 00:05:21,939
运输成本增加

136
00:05:21,939 --> 00:05:27,000
原材料生产成本上升且运输更昂贵

137
00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:27,519
事实上

138
00:05:27,519 --> 00:05:29,279
美联储估计

139
00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:34,600
每桶原油上涨10美元导致通胀增加0.2%

140
00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:35,339
此外

141
00:05:35,339 --> 00:05:39,360
美国直接从霍尔木兹海峡获得约7%的石油供应

142
00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:41,060
直接来自该海峡

143
00:05:41,060 --> 00:05:45,980
迫使我们必须向其他国家支付更高价格

144
00:05:45,980 --> 00:05:47,339
如更近的出口国

145
00:05:47,339 --> 00:05:48,779
比如加拿大和墨西哥

146
00:05:48,779 --> 00:05:50,100
仅此可见

147
00:05:50,100 --> 00:05:52,309
油价的敏感性

148
00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,040
至于价格可能上涨至何种程度

149
00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:01,879
摩根大通此前表示

150
00:06:01,879 --> 00:06:05,240
我们曾看到油价一度涨至每桶一百三十美元

151
00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,560
如果在此基础上长时间关闭的话

152
00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:09,839
如果海峡被封锁

153
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,379
这可能引发全球军事冲突灾难

154
00:06:13,379 --> 00:06:18,079
每个国家都会竭尽全力尽快恢复通行

155
00:06:18,079 --> 00:06:19,740
不惜一切手段

156
00:06:19,740 --> 00:06:22,639
这还不是最糟糕的情况

157
00:06:22,639 --> 00:06:26,259
伊朗甚至可能攻击在产油井

158
00:06:26,259 --> 00:06:28,620
几乎完全切断全球供应

159
00:06:28,620 --> 00:06:30,680
所以市场为何如此恐慌

160
00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:32,220
接下来可能发生什么

161
00:06:32,220 --> 00:06:34,379
以及你可以如何应对

162
00:06:34,379 --> 00:06:35,439
这就是你来听的内容

163
00:06:35,439 --> 00:06:36,540
不过在深入之前

164
00:06:36,540 --> 00:06:38,990
我必须指出随着更多资金在线流动

165
00:06:38,990 --> 00:06:44,389
保护账户访问安全与投资决策同样重要

166
00:06:44,389 --> 00:06:44,870
比如

167
00:06:44,870 --> 00:06:45,569
想想这个场景

168
00:06:45,569 --> 00:06:49,000
你可能花数十年时间构建投资组合

169
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:50,839
但登录经纪账户时

170
00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:51,980
在公共WiFi下

171
00:06:51,980 --> 00:06:53,899
在酒店或机场

172
00:06:53,899 --> 00:06:55,199
或身处外地时

173
00:06:55,199 --> 00:06:58,240
可能让数据暴露在不可控网络中

174
00:06:58,240 --> 00:06:58,980
更不用说

175
00:06:58,980 --> 00:07:03,899
大多数人根本不知道有多少个人信息已在网上流通

176
00:07:03,899 --> 00:07:07,060
存放在数据经纪商数据库中出售给第三方

177
00:07:07,060 --> 00:07:09,899
被垃圾邮件或诈骗者用来针对性攻击

178
00:07:09,899 --> 00:07:13,819
这就是为何必须极其重视在线隐私

179
00:07:13,819 --> 00:07:16,180
而我们的赞助商和合作伙伴

180
00:07:16,180 --> 00:07:21,029
无需手动访问可疑数据经纪网站要求删除信息

181
00:07:21,029 --> 00:07:25,410
Incogni可代为处理请求删除个人数据

182
00:07:25,410 --> 00:07:28,899
并应对数据经纪商的任何异议

183
00:07:28,899 --> 00:07:32,220
由于数据经纪商仍会持续收集信息

184
00:07:32,220 --> 00:07:33,740
即使已删除数据后

185
00:07:33,740 --> 00:07:38,829
Incogni通过重复删除请求确保信息不流入市场

186
00:07:38,829 --> 00:07:40,490
你只需注册账户

187
00:07:40,490 --> 00:07:41,949
授权其代表你操作

188
00:07:41,949 --> 00:07:44,589
然后静候他们全程更新进展

189
00:07:44,589 --> 00:07:47,319
此外Incogni的无限计划现在

190
00:07:47,319 --> 00:07:49,920
允许提交自定义删除链接

191
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:54,139
如果你发现信息泄露在可疑网站

192
00:07:54,139 --> 00:07:56,129
只需复制该链接

193
00:07:56,129 --> 00:07:59,689
发送至Incogni团队将协助删除

194
00:07:59,689 --> 00:08:02,930
且可提交任意数量此类链接

195
00:08:02,930 --> 00:08:05,730
如果你希望删除个人信息

196
00:08:05,730 --> 00:08:07,970
立即前往Incogni官网开始行动

197
00:08:07,970 --> 00:08:12,449
访问incogni.com/gram并在结账时使用优惠码good gram享年费6折

198
00:08:12,449 --> 00:08:14,329
链接也在下方描述中

199
00:08:14,329 --> 00:08:15,850
此外他们还提供其他服务

200
00:08:15,850 --> 00:08:17,550
三十天无风险

201
00:08:17,550 --> 00:08:20,329
任何人都可以尝试体验并获得全额退款

202
00:08:20,329 --> 00:08:22,459
如果您仍不满意

203
00:08:22,459 --> 00:08:25,879
这是incognidot.com/gram下方描述中的链接

204
00:08:25,879 --> 00:08:26,839
使用优质gram

205
00:08:26,839 --> 00:08:27,620
非常感谢

206
00:08:27,620 --> 00:08:28,800
现在让我们回到视频

207
00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:29,120
好的

208
00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:30,699
就目前形势而言

209
00:08:30,699 --> 00:08:33,089
可能出现三种发展路径

210
00:08:33,089 --> 00:08:34,129
顺便说明

211
00:08:34,129 --> 00:08:36,589
我保持中立立场

212
00:08:36,589 --> 00:08:38,659
我不偏袒任何一方

213
00:08:38,659 --> 00:08:40,919
不评判对错

214
00:08:40,919 --> 00:08:45,919
但理解其即将对

215
00:08:45,919 --> 00:08:47,639
几乎所有观众产生的现实影响

216
00:08:47,639 --> 00:08:48,659
言归正传

217
00:08:48,659 --> 00:08:50,639
路径一：控制局势

218
00:08:50,639 --> 00:08:54,320
局势可能在几天到一周内缓和

219
00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:56,620
尽管可能看到更多报复行动

220
00:08:56,620 --> 00:08:58,259
谈判正在进行

221
00:08:58,259 --> 00:08:59,960
局势开始稳定

222
00:08:59,960 --> 00:09:01,000
若此情况发生

223
00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,139
油价可能仅上涨几美元/桶

224
00:09:04,139 --> 00:09:06,399
汽油价格仅小幅上涨

225
00:09:06,399 --> 00:09:08,840
通胀略有上升

226
00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:10,399
但不会太严重

227
00:09:10,399 --> 00:09:12,870
市场也会较快恢复

228
00:09:12,870 --> 00:09:14,169
但如果未发生

229
00:09:14,169 --> 00:09:16,710
我们还有升级路径

230
00:09:16,710 --> 00:09:17,789
在此情景下

231
00:09:17,789 --> 00:09:20,470
冲突将持续数周甚至数月

232
00:09:20,470 --> 00:09:22,070
和平谈判破裂

233
00:09:22,070 --> 00:09:24,519
能源设施和航运路线受冲击

234
00:09:24,519 --> 00:09:27,740
保险成本飙升至经济不可行

235
00:09:27,740 --> 00:09:30,580
继续在该区域运输石油

236
00:09:30,580 --> 00:09:33,009
即使不封锁霍尔木兹海峡

237
00:09:33,009 --> 00:09:34,750
若发生这种情况

238
00:09:34,750 --> 00:09:37,669
油价可能飙升远超预期

239
00:09:37,669 --> 00:09:39,289
通胀可能重现

240
00:09:39,289 --> 00:09:40,789
GDP或下降

241
00:09:40,789 --> 00:09:44,169
美联储将陷入困境

242
00:09:44,169 --> 00:09:45,769
若通胀持续

243
00:09:45,769 --> 00:09:47,529
但若经济下滑

244
00:09:47,529 --> 00:09:50,409
需降息刺激经济

245
00:09:50,409 --> 00:09:52,590
形成典型滞胀局面

246
00:09:52,590 --> 00:09:55,250
但最令所有人恐惧的是

247
00:09:55,250 --> 00:09:56,649
这就是路径三

248
00:09:56,649 --> 00:09:57,440
全面停摆

249
00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,299
若伊朗能封锁航道

250
00:09:59,299 --> 00:10:03,149
我们正在讨论每天面临风险的十五到十八万桶石油

251
00:10:03,149 --> 00:10:05,490
整个中东的航运都经过这里

252
00:10:05,490 --> 00:10:08,789
此时几乎没有任何替代方案

253
00:10:08,789 --> 00:10:09,750
任何事情都可能发生

254
00:10:09,750 --> 00:10:11,669
因为这不仅仅是石油了

255
00:10:11,669 --> 00:10:13,110
我说的都是这些

256
00:10:13,110 --> 00:10:13,830
食品杂货

257
00:10:13,830 --> 00:10:14,909
亚马逊包裹

258
00:10:14,909 --> 00:10:15,889
建筑材料

259
00:10:15,889 --> 00:10:16,570
各类食品

260
00:10:16,570 --> 00:10:17,690
化肥

261
00:10:17,690 --> 00:10:18,490
你想到的都有

262
00:10:18,490 --> 00:10:19,190
在这种情况下

263
00:10:19,190 --> 00:10:21,809
据说每上涨5%的油价

264
00:10:21,809 --> 00:10:25,700
平均通胀率将增加约1个百分点

265
00:10:25,700 --> 00:10:28,179
而大部分传导过程在四周内完成

266
00:10:28,179 --> 00:10:29,779
这速度更快

267
00:10:29,779 --> 00:10:30,519
正如我之前所说

268
00:10:30,519 --> 00:10:33,379
霍尔木兹海峡也是化肥运输通道

269
00:10:33,379 --> 00:10:34,720
这意味着食品

270
00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:35,539
乳制品

271
00:10:35,539 --> 00:10:37,539
面包等商品价格更贵

272
00:10:37,539 --> 00:10:38,700
北美食品

273
00:10:38,700 --> 00:10:41,519
通胀预计将在2026年达到四点

274
00:10:41,519 --> 00:10:42,960
三 percent

275
00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:44,759
对于有两位司机的家庭

276
00:10:44,759 --> 00:10:50,000
油价上涨10-20%可能导致每年增加200至500美元或更多

277
00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:51,000
额外支出

278
00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:52,750
就目前形势而言

279
00:10:52,750 --> 00:10:56,549
这如何影响你以及现在能采取什么措施

280
00:10:56,549 --> 00:10:58,149
我们首先要讨论

281
00:10:58,149 --> 00:10:58,629
美国

282
00:10:58,629 --> 00:10:58,809
S

283
00:10:58,809 --> 00:10:59,230
美元

284
00:10:59,230 --> 00:10:59,909
从历史看

285
00:10:59,909 --> 00:11:00,649
相信或不信

286
00:11:00,649 --> 00:11:04,929
美元在经济危机时往往大幅升值

287
00:11:04,929 --> 00:11:07,669
因其被视为全球储备货币

288
00:11:07,669 --> 00:11:11,539
并引发资金避险潮，大量资金流入黄金

289
00:11:11,539 --> 00:11:12,000
然而

290
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,860
此类紧张局势也会引发大量货币印刷

291
00:11:14,860 --> 00:11:19,019
长期来看美元预计将持续走弱

292
00:11:19,019 --> 00:11:19,460
第二

293
00:11:19,460 --> 00:11:20,980
我们还需关注房贷利率

294
00:11:20,980 --> 00:11:24,200
接下来情况变得有点反直觉

295
00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,840
美元避险潮可能压低国债收益率

296
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:30,740
从而降低房贷利率

297
00:11:30,740 --> 00:11:34,519
正如二月利率因此跌破6%

298
00:11:34,519 --> 00:11:35,500
但正如我之前所说

299
00:11:35,500 --> 00:11:38,440
若冲突导致持续通胀

300
00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:40,600
美联储无法降息

301
00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,679
一旦一切趋于平衡

302
00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:45,200
我们可能看到利率长期维持高位

303
00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:46,299
导致第三

304
00:11:46,299 --> 00:11:47,679
家庭预算增加

305
00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,620
对于普通美国家庭而言，底线在于这些情景

306
00:11:51,620 --> 00:11:55,850
低收入和中等收入家庭受影响最严重

307
00:11:55,850 --> 00:11:59,070
因为能源占其收入更大比例

308
00:11:59,070 --> 00:12:02,250
油价上涨意味着其他开支减少

309
00:12:02,250 --> 00:12:06,470
这会形成反馈循环，消费减少拖累经济

310
00:12:06,470 --> 00:12:08,830
进而导致更多消费减少

311
00:12:08,830 --> 00:12:11,700
说到底

312
00:12:11,700 --> 00:12:15,840
最无力承担的人往往付出最多

313
00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:17,000
归根结底

314
00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:18,720
你能做些什么呢

315
00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:19,980
从股市角度来看

316
00:12:19,980 --> 00:12:22,379
瑞安·德特里奇指出，纵观历史

317
00:12:22,379 --> 00:12:25,120
自二战以来每场重大地缘事件

318
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:26,860
令人难以置信的是

319
00:12:26,860 --> 00:12:31,139
六个月后价格平均上涨5%

320
00:12:31,139 --> 00:12:33,100
二月和三月通常是全年最弱月份

321
00:12:33,100 --> 00:12:36,109
之后股市重新上涨

322
00:12:36,109 --> 00:12:38,399
或者看看这个例子

323
00:12:38,399 --> 00:12:39,460
历史上所有地缘事件后股市均上涨

324
00:12:39,460 --> 00:12:44,019
因此现在绝非抛售时机

325
00:12:44,019 --> 00:12:46,279
或孤注一掷赌这次不同

326
00:12:46,279 --> 00:12:49,600
除此之外

327
00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:50,519
另一重要数据是

328
00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:53,659
中期选举年如2026年

329
00:12:53,659 --> 00:12:55,970
历史上总统周期内最大回撤年份

330
00:12:55,970 --> 00:13:00,850
自1950年以来

331
00:13:00,850 --> 00:13:02,200
中期年内的平均年内回撤达17.5%

332
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:06,580
而其他年份仅为11%-13%

333
00:13:06,580 --> 00:13:09,179
但关键在于一年后

334
00:13:09,179 --> 00:13:11,980
中期低点后股市从未收于更低

335
00:13:11,980 --> 00:13:16,399
事实上

336
00:13:16,399 --> 00:13:16,980
中期底部后十二个月平均回报率3.1%

337
00:13:16,980 --> 00:13:21,240
一点

338
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:21,740
七个百分点

339
00:13:21,740 --> 00:13:24,068
68%的时间

340
00:13:24,068 --> 00:13:27,389
回撤后一年回报率达30%以上

341
00:13:27,389 --> 00:13:31,039
如果你怀疑自己能否在动荡中坚持投资

342
00:13:31,039 --> 00:13:33,740
希望这能提供更多清晰视角

343
00:13:33,740 --> 00:13:36,980
因为事实是总能找到不投资的理由

344
00:13:36,980 --> 00:13:41,100
最后我想说，这个视频聚焦于金钱

345
00:13:41,100 --> 00:13:42,080
这就是我的工作

346
00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,039
这就是整个频道的主题

347
00:13:44,039 --> 00:13:45,179
但更深层的是

348
00:13:45,179 --> 00:13:47,299
有真实的人受到影响

349
00:13:47,299 --> 00:13:50,759
远超投资组合或油价

350
00:13:50,759 --> 00:13:52,840
我真心希望每个人都能得到最好的

351
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,240
我希望这个问题能安全且迅速地解决

352
00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:59,929
在此期间，你们能为自己做的最好的事就是做好准备

353
00:13:59,929 --> 00:14:03,049
明白财务影响只是暂时的

354
00:14:03,049 --> 00:14:06,200
坚持计划并在下方留言

355
00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:10,419
我会尽力阅读并回复尽可能多的观众

356
00:14:10,419 --> 00:14:13,460
同时也要记住我可能完全错误

357
00:14:13,460 --> 00:14:16,360
因为我只是一个在半改造车库做YouTube视频的普通人

358
00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,509
所以请对我的话持保留态度

359
00:14:18,509 --> 00:14:19,690
再次感谢观看

360
00:14:19,690 --> 00:14:22,269
别忘了查看下方赞助商InCogniDown

361
00:14:22,269 --> 00:14:23,610
在简介里再次感谢大家

362
00:14:23,610 --> 00:14:24,740
直到下次再见

评论采集失败

采集完成，该视频无弹幕