美股：戴尔翻倍美光破千，微软胎动。养老金拉黑一明星股。【2026-06-01】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年6月1号星期一

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今天标普指数上涨了19.9点

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涨幅0.2%

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6日K线图小幅上涨

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指数仍平稳地运行在一轮慢牛行情中

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不断地创出历史新高

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上涨趋势明确

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只是周线连续上涨了九周

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随时可能调整

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却不见调整的到来

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纳斯达克指数今天上涨114.19点

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涨幅0.42%

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是三大指数中涨幅最好的

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虽然都涨的不多

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大盘天天新高

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有一定的恐高

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但趋势没有改变的情况下

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也无需担心太多

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从以前的指数对年限的偏离程度

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从周线的连续上涨的周数等来看

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市场短线确实积累了一定的调整压力

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虽然大方向上涨的

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但适当的调整也是随时可能发生的

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5月股市涨得特别好

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以前那种什么silly may早就不再提了

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五穷六绝七翻身

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这样的股市老化最近几年越来越不灵

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事实上

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5月份标普指数创出历史新高

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每周都上涨

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周周收阳线

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5月标普涨了370一个点

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涨幅达到了5.1%

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54月份因为战争进入暂时停火

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也涨了10.42%

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所以连续九周大涨

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美股已经从战争低谷V型反转

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总共上涨了1264点

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涨幅20%

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6月开门还是上涨的啊

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即使有关于美伊战争的坏消息来了

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美股啊也只是低开调整了一上午

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到了下午就反弹了

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全天最终还是收涨

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周一开盘

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伊朗宣布坏消息打击了股市

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发布时间是九点啊

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算准呢

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要袭击美股市场

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伊朗媒体表示

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因为以色列在黎巴嫩的军事行动

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谈判团队决定暂停通过巴基斯坦与美国对话

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向北推进

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获得了能俯瞰黎巴嫩南部和以色列北部

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大片地区的战略高地

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这一行动意味着4月17号

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以色列黎巴嫩停火协议宣告结束

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也就是以色列黎巴嫩又打起来了

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看到小弟挨打

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伊朗就急了

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决定停止与美国的谈判

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将采取行动

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全面封锁霍尔木兹海峡

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怎么个全面封锁呢

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估计是要拉上曼德海峡一起

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霍尔木兹海峡控制波斯湾的石油出口

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曼德海峡控制红海的这头中东

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那几个土豪的家里虽然有钱

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但原油出口的前门和后门儿就分别是

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霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡

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曼德海峡是也门胡塞武装的控制范围

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所谓双重封锁应该就是想把油价再拱一拱

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结果布伦特原油就从90反弹到了95

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注意到91线是原油的重要支撑线

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如果跌破这条线

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原油将做一个头部形态

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形成后油价就会大跌

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这个时候拥有原油的中东国家

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其实也不希望油价大跌啊

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伊朗也是卖油的

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原油要做顶了

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那赶紧要拉一把

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不然等市场砸破支撑线

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做空的力量就大了

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川普说他并不在乎油价

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也不在乎谈判是不是结束了

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这个谈判实在是又长又无聊

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川普非常确定油价将很快下降

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但也不急于和伊朗谈判

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美伊之间的停火协议到底是结束了没有呢

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字面上说是还在停火状态

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但互相也仍有小动作

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美国表示

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周末对伊朗的雷达站和指挥中心发起了袭击

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而伊朗革命卫队宣称对一处美国军事基地

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进行了报复性打击

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市场对这样的利空消化得很快

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当天就恢复元气

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日线图仍然向好

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战争在初期通过恐慌情绪影响市场

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但很快股市就对利空消息不敏感

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以至于标普指数从来没有输过一场战争

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美股最终还是在以人工智能为题材中心的

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第四次工业革命浪潮当中

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市场上涨主要还是依赖产业的高速发展

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股价上涨很快

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业绩增长也很快

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所以股价涨了这么多

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但估值并不是非常离谱

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和英伟达一合作

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股价就能启动

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微软大跌的两大原因其实都是市场的主观猜测

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首先是软件已死

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有了AI就会替代软件的说法

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让软件股在一季度大跌

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微软也是软件

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另一个利空是微软虽然业绩非常好

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但是资本支出庞大

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市场认为花钱太多

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我之前的判断对这两个空翻观点是有怀疑的

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可能会有一些软件真的会被AI替代

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但微软是操作系统级别的护城河宽不易被替代

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微软投钱发展AI整合到软件中

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软件升级了会更好用

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微软和谷歌一样

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资本支出是必须的

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如果不花这个钱

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科技巨头很快就会被淘汰

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质疑这些巨头花钱是没有远见的

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市场观点

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黄仁勋在台北发表主题演讲说

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英伟达将推出一款与微软联合研发的

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N1X芯片

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用于windows pc

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这款RTX spark超级芯片

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将在今年秋季

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在微软和戴尔的全新windows pc中首次亮相

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其他电脑品牌像惠普

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华硕

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联想等也会推出这样的电脑

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黄仁勋表示

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人工智能体将在所有新的计算机中运行

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微软和英伟达将会彻底革新个人电脑

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这是40年来首次出现的完全重新设计

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重新打造的个人电脑产品线

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英伟达的初步计划是推出搭载这款芯片的

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30多款笔记本电脑和十款台式机

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现在的人工智能主要是在云上面

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我们在Gemini g p t cloud提问得到解答

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都不是在自己的电脑上面运算的

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这些人工智能还不能对个人电脑里面的文件啊

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照片

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音频邮件等进行直接操作

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今年出现的智能体龙虾什么的

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能在自己的电脑上面进行本地操作

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那AIPC也就是人工智能电脑

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能在本地运行人工智能任务

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能让政府企业和个人放心的

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把电脑交给智能体的

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我估计只有微软本身

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像之前用龙虾的很多公司就禁止这么干

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感觉数据安全非常不安全

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微软的co pilot加PC需要本地算力

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而英伟达NEX芯片具有极强的端侧推理能力

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就是本地可以运行的

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直接利用强大的库打生态

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来处理高强度的AI任务

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并且功耗低

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能用在笔记本电脑上

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这款N1X芯片具有顶级的移动端GPU

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还具有一定的NPU及AI加速能力

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使得windows电脑逐渐能变成一台人工智能电脑

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那么现在一台好的电脑有CPU

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有GPU

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人工智能电脑还需要NPU

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CPU是中央处理器

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GPU是显卡

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NPU是神经网络处理单元

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就是模仿人类神经网络处理AI推理任务

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AIPC不止完成提问解答

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这样的生成式人工智能任务

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还能整理电脑中的邮件

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查找文件

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梳理工作流程等

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甚至还具有过目不忘的能力

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能跨应用搜索文件

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举个例子啊

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一名会计师正在处理客户的所得税

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突然想找一张几个月前搬家费用的发票

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又不记得文件名字

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找了半天找不到

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这个时候只需要对电脑说

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帮我找一下

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4月份我看过的一张客户A的搬家费用凭证

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电脑就自动找出来了

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因为是在本地端测运算

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所以是不需要token的

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不用给大模型付费成本极低

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读取和写入的本地文件还不用上传到云端

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在电脑上算完就完了

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没有数据和隐私泄露的风险

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微软这家公司并不是AI替代

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而是AI概念

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跌多了

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倒是一个价值洼地

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目前股价已经走出了头肩底

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美股科技龙头的底部图形一旦确认

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大概率是真的

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也就是说微软已经见底回升

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目前正在一轮新的上升行情中

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突破头肩底的颈线后

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目标价就可以设定在515美元左右

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计算的方法是头肩底最小亮度涨幅

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当头肩底形成并突破后

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00:09:12,549 --> 00:09:13,730
底的厚度啊

220
00:09:13,730 --> 00:09:16,419
就是上涨突破后的最少的涨幅

221
00:09:16,419 --> 00:09:19,899
这次的这个头肩底最低价355

222
00:09:19,899 --> 00:09:22,000
净现为435

223
00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:25,119
底部的厚度是80元好

224
00:09:25,119 --> 00:09:28,458
那435+80=515

225
00:09:28,458 --> 00:09:31,250
所以目标价是515

226
00:09:31,250 --> 00:09:33,870
那是因为英伟达推出这款芯片

227
00:09:33,870 --> 00:09:36,889
高通躺枪大跌8.78%

228
00:09:36,889 --> 00:09:38,929
因为高通骁龙处理器

229
00:09:38,929 --> 00:09:42,009
本来是微软AIPC的独家供货方

230
00:09:42,009 --> 00:09:44,879
现在英伟达杀入高通腹地

231
00:09:44,879 --> 00:09:48,460
高通在PC市场的增长空间受到挤压

232
00:09:50,519 --> 00:09:54,539
英伟达NEX芯片提到的合作品牌还包括了

233
00:09:54,539 --> 00:09:55,100
戴尔

234
00:09:55,100 --> 00:09:57,110
上个月直接翻倍

235
00:09:57,110 --> 00:09:59,210
今天又股大涨10.7%

236
00:09:59,210 --> 00:10:00,700
盘后还在涨

237
00:10:00,700 --> 00:10:02,139
一季度报表中

238
00:10:02,139 --> 00:10:03,940
戴尔的AI服务器收入

239
00:10:03,940 --> 00:10:06,100
同比增长757%

240
00:10:06,100 --> 00:10:09,309
全年AI服务器收入预期610

241
00:10:09,309 --> 00:10:12,710
这样的增速是股价短线翻倍的原因

242
00:10:12,710 --> 00:10:14,669
戴尔全年的营收预期

243
00:10:14,669 --> 00:10:16,909
上调到1670亿美元

244
00:10:16,909 --> 00:10:19,818
管理层对今年的生育预期乐观

245
00:10:19,818 --> 00:10:24,019
市场对三位数增长给出的定价也是不吝啬的

246
00:10:24,019 --> 00:10:25,389
连续大涨

247
00:10:25,389 --> 00:10:29,519
机构对需求暴增的硬件股给出越来越高的价格

248
00:10:29,519 --> 00:10:32,799
行业公司产品都是好的

249
00:10:32,799 --> 00:10:34,990
就是价格已经很贵了

250
00:10:34,990 --> 00:10:36,769
存储股继续上涨

251
00:10:36,769 --> 00:10:38,750
美光突破千元大关

252
00:10:38,750 --> 00:10:40,889
今天收盘1035

253
00:10:40,889 --> 00:10:43,089
又涨了6.64%

254
00:10:43,089 --> 00:10:46,818
美光最近上涨的能量甚至超过了闪迪

255
00:10:46,818 --> 00:10:48,658
当股价上千元时

256
00:10:48,658 --> 00:10:49,979
敢不敢拆股啊

257
00:10:49,979 --> 00:10:53,589
就是考验管理层长期业绩信心的试金石

258
00:10:53,589 --> 00:10:56,029
如果拆股比例足够大

259
00:10:56,029 --> 00:10:57,789
比如一股拆十股

260
00:10:57,789 --> 00:11:00,429
那么股价就马上变成100元级别

261
00:11:00,429 --> 00:11:02,590
如果几年以后周期下行

262
00:11:02,590 --> 00:11:03,980
业绩走低

263
00:11:03,980 --> 00:11:07,019
股价跌起来就直奔50以下去了

264
00:11:07,019 --> 00:11:10,379
那50美元以下哪有什么好股啊

265
00:11:10,379 --> 00:11:13,490
那样的话市场形象就很差啦

266
00:11:13,490 --> 00:11:17,370
呃所以敢不敢提出一拆十的拆股方案

267
00:11:17,370 --> 00:11:20,480
就看公司董事会长期有没有信心了

268
00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,019
在SPACEX即将上市之际

269
00:11:23,019 --> 00:11:27,190
丹麦养老金宣布拉黑禁止投资是SPACEX

270
00:11:27,190 --> 00:11:33,009
丹麦养老基金academic pension认为SPACEX不值得投资

271
00:11:33,009 --> 00:11:34,919
主要原因是两条

272
00:11:34,919 --> 00:11:37,480
第一是马斯克一股独大

273
00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:39,179
利用双重股权结构

274
00:11:39,179 --> 00:11:41,570
控制80%以上的投票权

275
00:11:41,570 --> 00:11:43,370
于是就有个笑话说

276
00:11:43,370 --> 00:11:46,509
能罢免马斯克的只有马斯克本人

277
00:11:46,509 --> 00:11:49,909
他在SPACEX上面拥有绝对话语权

278
00:11:49,909 --> 00:11:52,929
另外SPACEX的合理估值

279
00:11:52,929 --> 00:11:54,509
丹麦养老金认为啊

280
00:11:54,509 --> 00:11:56,669
顶多1万亿上市

281
00:11:56,669 --> 00:11:57,210
2万亿

282
00:11:57,210 --> 00:11:58,389
贵的离谱

283
00:11:58,389 --> 00:12:01,250
这个作为机构投资者观点的参考

284
00:12:01,250 --> 00:12:03,470
是一个风险警告信号

285
00:12:03,470 --> 00:12:05,149
SPACEX上市后

286
00:12:05,149 --> 00:12:06,750
因为流通盘也不高

287
00:12:06,750 --> 00:12:08,450
有机会炒高股价

288
00:12:08,450 --> 00:12:11,279
但炒高了是不宜追高的

289
00:12:11,279 --> 00:12:14,440
2万亿的估值实际上是流通的

290
00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,039
只有3%到5%这一点

291
00:12:17,039 --> 00:12:20,599
流通股的股价决定全部股份的价值

292
00:12:20,599 --> 00:12:23,099
而限售股锁定期结束后

293
00:12:23,099 --> 00:12:24,899
对股价极为不利

294
00:12:24,899 --> 00:12:28,039
老牌赌场美高梅迎来收购提议

295
00:12:28,039 --> 00:12:29,889
今天股价大涨

296
00:12:29,889 --> 00:12:32,889
巴里迪乐旗下的人民公司已经提出了

297
00:12:32,889 --> 00:12:35,830
收购赌场巨头美高梅度假村集团

298
00:12:35,830 --> 00:12:38,659
每股收购价48.30美元

299
00:12:38,659 --> 00:12:41,799
今天涨完已经超过收购价了

300
00:12:41,799 --> 00:12:45,220
收购方认为美高梅的资产价值被低估了

301
00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:48,019
美高煤在赌城拉斯维加斯大道

302
00:12:48,019 --> 00:12:51,950
有40%的产业重资产且不可替代

303
00:12:51,950 --> 00:12:55,610
不过资本市场现在追捧的题材不是这种的啊

304
00:12:55,610 --> 00:12:57,169
谢娜喜欢高科技

305
00:12:59,070 --> 00:13:02,350
我的公开账户净值跌到了21.5万

306
00:13:02,350 --> 00:13:04,970
当日亏损了3.02%

307
00:13:07,710 --> 00:13:10,318
但是并没有严重利空消息

308
00:13:10,318 --> 00:13:12,879
OpenAI进军机器人领域

309
00:13:12,879 --> 00:13:16,419
可能对特斯拉的机器人业务构成了一定的威胁

310
00:13:16,419 --> 00:13:20,279
除此之外找不到太多股价下跌的理由啊

311
00:13:20,279 --> 00:13:22,059
上周末有观众问

312
00:13:22,059 --> 00:13:25,860
SUNY的公开和非公开账户的投资差别是什么

313
00:13:25,860 --> 00:13:27,720
回报率一样吗

314
00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,960
我个人觉得差别就是压力不一样

315
00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:32,899
公开账户压力大

316
00:13:32,899 --> 00:13:34,399
所以风格保守

317
00:13:34,399 --> 00:13:36,120
交易频率不高

318
00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,519
非公开账户仓位更大

319
00:13:38,519 --> 00:13:39,720
亏钱没事儿

320
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:41,289
所以放得开

321
00:13:41,289 --> 00:13:43,789
所以呢回报率肯定是不一样的

322
00:13:43,789 --> 00:13:45,509
经过3年的运作

323
00:13:45,509 --> 00:13:50,870
我发现折腾多了和不折腾的也没有什么不同啊

324
00:13:50,870 --> 00:13:53,529
美股最好别瞎折腾好

325
00:13:53,529 --> 00:13:55,090
那今天的节目就分享到这里

326
00:13:55,090 --> 00:13:55,990
感谢大家收看

327
00:13:55,990 --> 00:13:57,940
我们下期节目再见拜拜

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