【Couch Investor】遍地黄金还是无底洞？科技巨头暴跌30%，抄底时机到了吗？

1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,200
大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

2
00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:02,819
在今天的视频中

3
00:00:02,819 --> 00:00:03,439
首先，最重要的事情是

4
00:00:03,439 --> 00:00:03,759
谢天谢地

5
00:00:03,759 --> 00:00:04,860
今天是星期五对吧

6
00:00:04,860 --> 00:00:07,980
我们将看看当前的市场状况

7
00:00:07,980 --> 00:00:10,560
我确实想再次提及宏观背景

8
00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:12,179
我们周四已经讨论过这个

9
00:00:12,179 --> 00:00:14,179
但我想再次强调这一点

10
00:00:14,179 --> 00:00:17,670
因为情况确实有点荒谬

11
00:00:17,670 --> 00:00:19,829
我们也会谈谈沙发

12
00:00:19,829 --> 00:00:21,609
昨天的公告

13
00:00:21,609 --> 00:00:24,620
我们有一些网络安全新闻

14
00:00:24,620 --> 00:00:27,359
如果你关注你最喜欢的网络安全公司

15
00:00:27,359 --> 00:00:28,600
现在可能

16
00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:30,260
它们都下跌了很多

17
00:00:30,260 --> 00:00:32,390
你可能会问为什么，嗯

18
00:00:32,390 --> 00:00:35,689
再次指向那个惯犯

19
00:00:35,689 --> 00:00:38,060
也就是熵锐科技

20
00:00:38,060 --> 00:00:40,780
最后我们将讨论

21
00:00:40,780 --> 00:00:41,840
你可以做什么

22
00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:43,740
你现在不应该做什么

23
00:00:43,740 --> 00:00:46,079
我们将分析几个具体案例

24
00:00:46,079 --> 00:00:47,460
毕竟

25
00:00:47,460 --> 00:00:49,579
没有什么是绝对安全的

26
00:00:49,579 --> 00:00:50,219
人们常说

27
00:00:50,219 --> 00:00:51,140
看看这只股票

28
00:00:51,140 --> 00:00:54,429
暴跌40%，垃圾公司啊

29
00:00:54,429 --> 00:00:58,619
即使我们看那些热门大公司

30
00:00:58,619 --> 00:01:01,420
它们也大幅下跌了

31
00:01:01,420 --> 00:01:04,659
A公司今年以来下跌超40%

32
00:01:04,659 --> 00:01:07,560
罗宾hood今年以来下跌40%

33
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,609
当然多邻国跌幅更大

34
00:01:10,609 --> 00:01:13,150
但就连微软也大幅下跌

35
00:01:13,150 --> 00:01:16,370
就连Meta今年以来也大幅下跌

36
00:01:16,370 --> 00:01:19,170
我们将分析几只股票

37
00:01:19,170 --> 00:01:20,769
我觉得这些会很有趣

38
00:01:20,769 --> 00:01:23,140
当然请在下方评论区告诉我

39
00:01:23,140 --> 00:01:24,879
你关注的股票列表

40
00:01:24,879 --> 00:01:26,379
也许你正在筹集现金

41
00:01:26,379 --> 00:01:27,409
你买了哪些股票

42
00:01:27,409 --> 00:01:28,409
请告诉我这些

43
00:01:28,409 --> 00:01:29,370
在下方评论区

44
00:01:29,370 --> 00:01:30,370
如果你喜欢这类视频

45
00:01:30,370 --> 00:01:31,448
你知道该怎么做

46
00:01:31,448 --> 00:01:32,549
你可以进一步支持我

47
00:01:32,549 --> 00:01:34,289
请查看描述中的链接

48
00:01:34,289 --> 00:01:36,929
并评论十大最佳买入股票

49
00:01:36,929 --> 00:01:37,789
或前往full

50
00:01:37,789 --> 00:01:39,168
Com网站了解投资者

51
00:01:39,168 --> 00:01:40,328
非常感谢

52
00:01:40,328 --> 00:01:42,540
现在市场开盘前

53
00:01:42,540 --> 00:01:45,459
可能在我结束录音时

54
00:01:45,459 --> 00:01:46,799
市场将正式开市

55
00:01:46,799 --> 00:01:50,810
但此刻你仍能看到大量回落

56
00:01:50,810 --> 00:01:51,829
又上涨了一个点

57
00:01:51,829 --> 00:01:53,189
微软上涨五个百分点

58
00:01:53,189 --> 00:01:54,230
另一个上涨一点二

59
00:01:54,230 --> 00:01:55,539
谷歌上涨一点四

60
00:01:55,539 --> 00:01:57,078
英伟达上涨零点六

61
00:01:57,078 --> 00:01:59,099
这里仍有大量下跌

62
00:01:59,099 --> 00:02:01,769
奈飞上涨一点四个百分点

63
00:02:01,769 --> 00:02:04,750
为什么呢 他们又在提价了

64
00:02:04,750 --> 00:02:07,859
我们将查看分析师的点评

65
00:02:07,859 --> 00:02:11,579
股价仍在每股93至94美元区间

66
00:02:11,579 --> 00:02:12,459
我们这里还有

67
00:02:12,459 --> 00:02:14,859
来自Evercore ISI马克的简报

68
00:02:14,859 --> 00:02:18,860
马汉尼维持对该股的跑赢评级

69
00:02:18,860 --> 00:02:22,399
同时维持150美元的目标价

70
00:02:22,399 --> 00:02:24,239
关键要点如下

71
00:02:24,239 --> 00:02:28,009
美日调查显示持续定价能力

72
00:02:28,009 --> 00:02:29,370
用户参与度强劲

73
00:02:29,370 --> 00:02:32,710
支持用户留存率稳健

74
00:02:32,710 --> 00:02:36,020
仅3.1%可能取消订阅

75
00:02:36,020 --> 00:02:41,349
涨价一美元后48%表示低概率取消

76
00:02:41,349 --> 00:02:43,509
显示用户对涨价的接受度提升

77
00:02:43,509 --> 00:02:47,569
当然从2010年开始

78
00:02:47,569 --> 00:02:51,990
奈飞订阅价格大幅上涨

79
00:02:51,990 --> 00:02:53,659
我们都知道这一点

80
00:02:53,659 --> 00:02:56,500
但在此案例中我们也能说

81
00:02:56,500 --> 00:02:58,060
价格确实大幅上涨

82
00:02:58,060 --> 00:02:59,180
我们并不喜欢

83
00:02:59,180 --> 00:03:03,150
为看似相同的产品支付更多

84
00:03:03,150 --> 00:03:05,449
但在此案例中并非同一产品

85
00:03:05,449 --> 00:03:08,449
因为内容库大幅增加

86
00:03:08,449 --> 00:03:10,009
新增了直播节目

87
00:03:10,009 --> 00:03:11,129
新增了体育内容

88
00:03:11,129 --> 00:03:17,930
平台新增多项内容以支撑涨价

89
00:03:17,930 --> 00:03:20,729
我知道许多人不满涨价

90
00:03:20,729 --> 00:03:25,209
但你无法否认在支付不同产品

91
00:03:25,209 --> 00:03:25,688
是的

92
00:03:25,688 --> 00:03:27,780
这是一个流媒体应用

93
00:03:27,780 --> 00:03:29,180
但内容方面

94
00:03:29,180 --> 00:03:30,870
你获得的内容

95
00:03:30,870 --> 00:03:31,590
在我看来

96
00:03:31,590 --> 00:03:35,409
近年价值显著提升

97
00:03:35,409 --> 00:03:39,050
价值涨幅是否匹配价格

98
00:03:39,050 --> 00:03:39,509
好的

99
00:03:39,509 --> 00:03:40,810
值得商榷

100
00:03:40,810 --> 00:03:44,169
继续回到昨日的Meta讨论

101
00:03:44,169 --> 00:03:49,020
如此meta，而YouTube在标志性社交媒体成瘾案中被认定有过失

102
00:03:49,020 --> 00:03:54,120
陪审团裁定这些公司通过成瘾性设计特征损害了年轻用户

103
00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,159
并导致其心理健康困扰

104
00:03:56,159 --> 00:03:57,580
我们昨天报道过这个案件

105
00:03:57,580 --> 00:03:59,550
我们讨论过这种设计

106
00:03:59,550 --> 00:04:00,430
我同意

107
00:04:00,430 --> 00:04:01,789
而且我昨天也说过

108
00:04:01,789 --> 00:04:03,710
我是Meta的股东

109
00:04:03,710 --> 00:04:05,469
我也使用Meta的产品

110
00:04:05,469 --> 00:04:06,189
但我同意

111
00:04:06,189 --> 00:04:06,569
是的

112
00:04:06,569 --> 00:04:08,759
我认为年幼的孩子

113
00:04:08,759 --> 00:04:11,699
极小的孩子不应该使用社交媒体

114
00:04:11,699 --> 00:04:13,340
他们应该和朋友外出

115
00:04:13,340 --> 00:04:16,329
不应该一直盯着手机

116
00:04:16,329 --> 00:04:17,528
说起来容易做起来难

117
00:04:17,528 --> 00:04:18,468
我知道我不是家长

118
00:04:18,468 --> 00:04:18,848
所以

119
00:04:18,848 --> 00:04:20,728
但这是我现在的观点

120
00:04:20,728 --> 00:04:24,269
在这个案件中首先已经存在

121
00:04:24,269 --> 00:04:25,149
正如我昨天所说

122
00:04:25,149 --> 00:04:29,490
Instagram的设置中已有相关功能

123
00:04:29,490 --> 00:04:35,089
为了防止此类问题可设置时间限制

124
00:04:35,089 --> 00:04:36,949
即使未满十六岁

125
00:04:36,949 --> 00:04:39,319
我认为未满十三岁是不允许的

126
00:04:39,319 --> 00:04:40,500
未满十六岁

127
00:04:40,500 --> 00:04:43,889
需要监护人授权

128
00:04:43,889 --> 00:04:49,269
监护人还可控制使用时长

129
00:04:49,269 --> 00:04:53,709
已采取措施进行保护

130
00:04:53,709 --> 00:04:54,620
当然

131
00:04:54,620 --> 00:04:56,740
现在的年轻用户

132
00:04:56,740 --> 00:04:59,040
这些平台还能做得更多吗

133
00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:00,480
应该可以

134
00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:02,829
但此案目前

135
00:05:02,829 --> 00:05:05,170
当然打开了潘多拉魔盒

136
00:05:05,170 --> 00:05:07,500
但另一方面人们常说

137
00:05:07,500 --> 00:05:07,720
哦

138
00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:10,699
这就像多年前的烟草诉讼案

139
00:05:10,699 --> 00:05:11,839
很久以前

140
00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:13,538
是的也不全是

141
00:05:13,538 --> 00:05:14,338
因为确实

142
00:05:14,338 --> 00:05:19,689
现在社交媒体也有许多积极影响

143
00:05:19,689 --> 00:05:22,189
这也可能让作为家长的你

144
00:05:22,189 --> 00:05:25,329
发现孩子沉迷于Mr Beast的内容

145
00:05:25,329 --> 00:05:30,199
因为Mr Beast的内容针对年轻群体

146
00:05:30,199 --> 00:05:32,339
没错成年人也可能观看

147
00:05:32,339 --> 00:05:32,959
但你可以指出

148
00:05:32,959 --> 00:05:33,199
哦

149
00:05:33,199 --> 00:05:35,620
我的孩子沉迷Mr B的内容

150
00:05:35,620 --> 00:05:38,199
这导致我的孩子做了xyz

151
00:05:38,199 --> 00:05:42,439
或者我的套件对麦当劳或菲多利产品上瘾了

152
00:05:42,439 --> 00:05:43,480
或者随便什么

153
00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,220
这就是发生这件事的原因吧

154
00:05:46,220 --> 00:05:46,800
首先

155
00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:47,079
是的

156
00:05:47,079 --> 00:05:47,939
这些产品

157
00:05:47,939 --> 00:05:49,910
这些快餐

158
00:05:49,910 --> 00:05:50,389
零食

159
00:05:50,389 --> 00:05:51,170
各种东西

160
00:05:51,170 --> 00:05:52,709
它们很好而且非常受欢迎

161
00:05:52,709 --> 00:05:54,730
因为可以说它们具有成瘾性

162
00:05:54,730 --> 00:06:00,199
那我们要去每个制造优质产品的公司吗

163
00:06:00,199 --> 00:06:00,779
好吧

164
00:06:00,779 --> 00:06:04,769
可能不太健康像麦香鸡和乐之薯片之类

165
00:06:04,769 --> 00:06:07,490
但我们现在要去找每个公司说

166
00:06:07,490 --> 00:06:07,970
哦看

167
00:06:07,970 --> 00:06:09,050
我孩子肥胖了

168
00:06:09,050 --> 00:06:10,230
或者我的朋友肥胖了

169
00:06:10,230 --> 00:06:11,579
人们在嘲笑他

170
00:06:11,579 --> 00:06:12,500
身材羞辱

171
00:06:12,500 --> 00:06:13,459
这都是你的错

172
00:06:13,459 --> 00:06:15,199
因为你的产品

173
00:06:15,199 --> 00:06:18,199
你知道自己的产品很成瘾

174
00:06:18,199 --> 00:06:20,459
但你依然在销售这些

175
00:06:20,459 --> 00:06:23,139
我们想要为此付费

176
00:06:23,139 --> 00:06:24,839
这怎么操作

177
00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:26,259
这行不通

178
00:06:26,259 --> 00:06:31,170
所以如果现在要起诉Meta和YouTube

179
00:06:31,170 --> 00:06:31,569
是的

180
00:06:31,569 --> 00:06:34,970
这会打开针对其他一切的通道

181
00:06:34,970 --> 00:06:37,490
那些非常成功的产品

182
00:06:37,490 --> 00:06:43,250
可能具有成瘾性特征

183
00:06:43,250 --> 00:06:45,928
然后呢 我不知道

184
00:06:45,928 --> 00:06:46,889
最终目标是什么

185
00:06:46,889 --> 00:06:50,209
我认为这有点过度反应

186
00:06:50,209 --> 00:06:52,790
我确实想看到更多行动

187
00:06:52,790 --> 00:06:56,189
更多保护孩子在社交媒体的措施

188
00:06:56,189 --> 00:07:03,009
但现在对Meta的末日预言毫无道理

189
00:07:03,009 --> 00:07:07,529
我再次认为这类似于谷歌2025年的场景

190
00:07:07,529 --> 00:07:07,850
哦

191
00:07:07,850 --> 00:07:11,709
他们将被迫出售Chrome和安卓等

192
00:07:11,709 --> 00:07:14,069
我不认为会发生

193
00:07:14,069 --> 00:07:15,310
我们确实已经

194
00:07:15,310 --> 00:07:19,860
同Evercore ISI分析师再次维持跑赢大盘评级

195
00:07:19,860 --> 00:07:22,360
维持900美元目标价

196
00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:23,459
关键要点在此

197
00:07:23,459 --> 00:07:24,980
我们获得了一些数据

198
00:07:24,980 --> 00:07:28,939
8至13岁群体约占每日活跃用户中值单数

199
00:07:28,939 --> 00:07:31,779
占36亿日活用户的百分之几

200
00:07:31,779 --> 00:07:36,120
平台禁止13岁以下用户

201
00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,668
儿童安全问题并非新问题

202
00:07:38,668 --> 00:07:39,588
我是说

203
00:07:39,588 --> 00:07:42,649
我们知道社交媒体在沟通方面提供了诸多益处

204
00:07:42,649 --> 00:07:44,408
娱乐和连接性

205
00:07:44,408 --> 00:07:45,170
好的

206
00:07:45,170 --> 00:07:46,970
估值约为16倍

207
00:07:46,970 --> 00:07:50,350
市盈率接近三年来调整后的低点

208
00:07:50,350 --> 00:07:51,089
这大概就是了

209
00:07:51,089 --> 00:07:52,579
这是前瞻性的

210
00:07:52,579 --> 00:07:54,560
但确实

211
00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:55,519
在我看来

212
00:07:55,519 --> 00:07:57,829
这显然是过度反应

213
00:07:57,829 --> 00:07:58,490
不幸的是

214
00:07:58,490 --> 00:08:02,389
我们之前就说过这一点，并且在许多大型科技公司身上看到了

215
00:08:02,389 --> 00:08:07,970
我认为随着监管者的变化，这种情况会越来越普遍

216
00:08:07,970 --> 00:08:09,079
谁掌权

217
00:08:09,079 --> 00:08:12,819
我们正目睹更多针对科技巨头的攻击

218
00:08:12,819 --> 00:08:17,889
我不认为这种情况会在未来几年停止

219
00:08:17,889 --> 00:08:19,329
正如我们昨天看到的

220
00:08:19,329 --> 00:08:21,329
可以看到Mehta股价已回升

221
00:08:21,329 --> 00:08:23,370
自2025年4月以来首次出现

222
00:08:23,370 --> 00:08:25,509
这里出现了一个小幅上涨缺口

223
00:08:25,509 --> 00:08:27,459
这个缺口已被填补

224
00:08:27,459 --> 00:08:28,420
这是日线图显示

225
00:08:28,420 --> 00:08:30,439
当然已经严重超卖

226
00:08:30,439 --> 00:08:32,629
如果我们看周线图

227
00:08:32,629 --> 00:08:33,769
RSI指标偏低

228
00:08:33,769 --> 00:08:37,190
但这是自11月以来的最低水平

229
00:08:37,190 --> 00:08:38,889
我们也经历了修正回调

230
00:08:38,889 --> 00:08:39,830
正如你在这里看到的

231
00:08:39,830 --> 00:08:43,509
但我们在100日均线处完成了重启

232
00:08:43,509 --> 00:08:45,950
目前我们处于

233
00:08:45,950 --> 00:08:46,629
无人地带

234
00:08:46,629 --> 00:08:48,549
在100日和200日均线之间

235
00:08:48,549 --> 00:08:51,070
200日均线位于438美元

236
00:08:51,070 --> 00:08:52,870
我们是否会跌至该水平

237
00:08:52,870 --> 00:08:53,809
我不知道

238
00:08:53,809 --> 00:08:55,250
但如果我们真的跌了

239
00:08:55,250 --> 00:08:58,019
我可能会大量买入股票

240
00:08:58,019 --> 00:08:59,779
既然我们正在讨论Meta

241
00:08:59,779 --> 00:09:01,539
当然作为Max Seven的一部分

242
00:09:01,539 --> 00:09:02,360
我们这里有

243
00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,269
这就是当前的情况

244
00:09:07,269 --> 00:09:09,929
从峰值到现在，苹果

245
00:09:09,929 --> 00:09:10,970
下跌11%

246
00:09:10,970 --> 00:09:11,870
3%

247
00:09:11,870 --> 00:09:12,629
我们有英伟达

248
00:09:12,629 --> 00:09:14,429
下跌18.1%

249
00:09:14,429 --> 00:09:17,210
亚马逊18.6% 阿里巴巴18.8%

250
00:09:17,210 --> 00:09:18,070
特斯拉二十

251
00:09:18,070 --> 00:09:19,509
四点四倍市盈率

252
00:09:19,509 --> 00:09:21,929
三十点三和微软三

253
00:09:21,929 --> 00:09:23,830
现在三点八个百分点

254
00:09:23,830 --> 00:09:26,940
由于这又回到了五周高点

255
00:09:26,940 --> 00:09:32,059
我们总可以说也许它不应该交易在五周高点

256
00:09:32,059 --> 00:09:34,528
现在我们回到了正常价格

257
00:09:34,528 --> 00:09:36,749
不过我要说在某些情况下

258
00:09:36,749 --> 00:09:39,369
我认为当前价格并不正常

259
00:09:39,369 --> 00:09:42,328
因为这些公司越来越好

260
00:09:42,328 --> 00:09:42,928
是的

261
00:09:42,928 --> 00:09:44,469
我们仍然拥有这个

262
00:09:44,469 --> 00:09:47,639
所有资本支出的投资回报率如何

263
00:09:47,639 --> 00:09:48,399
嗯

264
00:09:48,399 --> 00:09:49,139
好的

265
00:09:49,139 --> 00:09:49,960
这是个好问题

266
00:09:51,039 --> 00:09:55,090
但它可能永远不应达到五周高点

267
00:09:55,090 --> 00:10:00,429
但我认为目前可能过度看空

268
00:10:00,429 --> 00:10:01,990
尽管有些人可能不同意

269
00:10:01,990 --> 00:10:03,090
这完全没问题

270
00:10:03,090 --> 00:10:04,570
但只是为了证明是的

271
00:10:04,570 --> 00:10:10,649
即使全球最好的公司也经历回调

272
00:10:10,649 --> 00:10:12,830
我们越来越多地讨论

273
00:10:12,830 --> 00:10:15,789
现在重点放在这些巨头身上

274
00:10:15,789 --> 00:10:16,370
没错

275
00:10:16,370 --> 00:10:18,909
如果你现在感到不安

276
00:10:18,909 --> 00:10:21,889
为何不选择这些极盈利的

277
00:10:21,889 --> 00:10:26,769
非常强劲且估值吸引人的公司

278
00:10:26,769 --> 00:10:28,839
而不是冒险尝试

279
00:10:28,839 --> 00:10:32,119
未来潜力十倍股

280
00:10:32,119 --> 00:10:32,859
这仍然可以

281
00:10:32,859 --> 00:10:37,899
但或许现在资金配置比例应调整

282
00:10:37,899 --> 00:10:39,779
那些潜在十倍股

283
00:10:39,779 --> 00:10:40,059
是的

284
00:10:40,059 --> 00:10:42,068
有更大上涨空间

285
00:10:42,068 --> 00:10:45,649
但若能以两一倍市盈率买入英伟达

286
00:10:45,649 --> 00:10:47,948
以低于二十倍市盈率买入Meta

287
00:10:47,948 --> 00:10:48,269
低于

288
00:10:48,269 --> 00:10:49,509
二十倍市盈率

289
00:10:49,509 --> 00:10:54,000
像亚马逊自二零零八年来的最低价

290
00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:55,759
据杰弗里所述

291
00:10:55,759 --> 00:10:57,009
为何不

292
00:10:57,009 --> 00:11:00,730
为何不买入这些优秀公司安心入睡

293
00:11:00,730 --> 00:11:03,230
当市场情绪

294
00:11:03,230 --> 00:11:05,100
宏观环境改善时

295
00:11:05,100 --> 00:11:06,639
开始转换策略

296
00:11:06,639 --> 00:11:08,259
或保持持仓

297
00:11:08,259 --> 00:11:08,879
当然

298
00:11:08,879 --> 00:11:14,230
现在可将部分现金转向中小盘公司

299
00:11:14,230 --> 00:11:16,549
增长潜力更大的企业

300
00:11:17,590 --> 00:11:20,200
为什么不转向网络安全领域呢

301
00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:21,759
正如你可以看到的，帕洛阿尔托

302
00:11:21,759 --> 00:11:22,419
Crowdstrike

303
00:11:22,419 --> 00:11:23,039
ZScaler

304
00:11:23,039 --> 00:11:23,960
Octa Sentinel

305
00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:25,159
One Forty at Rubric

306
00:11:25,159 --> 00:11:27,220
它们全部下跌了65%

307
00:11:27,220 --> 00:11:30,539
周五目前下跌了4%

308
00:11:30,539 --> 00:11:31,080
当然

309
00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:31,799
这些公司

310
00:11:31,799 --> 00:11:34,840
这些讨论遭受了巨大打击

311
00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:36,519
也从历史高点回落

312
00:11:36,519 --> 00:11:37,179
正如你所知

313
00:11:37,179 --> 00:11:42,620
网络安全领域一直交易在显著溢价

314
00:11:42,620 --> 00:11:44,100
所以正如你所知

315
00:11:44,100 --> 00:11:45,600
正如我们刚才所说

316
00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:48,679
也许它们只是处于合理价格

317
00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:50,759
那么现在发生了什么

318
00:11:50,759 --> 00:11:54,039
为什么该领域又出现过度反应

319
00:11:54,039 --> 00:11:59,419
顺便说一句，你可以将网络安全名称归入末日类别

320
00:11:59,419 --> 00:12:00,019
嗯

321
00:12:00,019 --> 00:12:01,919
这是因为通常的嫌疑人

322
00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:03,440
Entropic Clo

323
00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:09,929
这显然是泄露的文件审查或类似内容

324
00:12:09,929 --> 00:12:13,509
我们已完成新AI模型Claude Mythos的训练

325
00:12:13,509 --> 00:12:17,409
这是迄今为止最强大的AI模型

326
00:12:17,409 --> 00:12:19,970
当然他们每次都会这么说

327
00:12:19,970 --> 00:12:24,629
但此次确实提到了网络安全防御

328
00:12:24,629 --> 00:12:26,320
网络安全

329
00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:29,519
Itos也是一个计算密集型模型

330
00:12:29,519 --> 00:12:33,730
对我们来说运行成本高昂，客户使用也会非常昂贵

331
00:12:33,730 --> 00:12:39,139
我们正在优化模型效率以备正式发布

332
00:12:39,139 --> 00:12:41,299
在准备发布Cloud Metals时

333
00:12:41,299 --> 00:12:45,220
我们需要格外谨慎评估潜在风险

334
00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:48,169
甚至超出我们自身测试的认知

335
00:12:48,169 --> 00:12:49,070
特别是

336
00:12:49,070 --> 00:12:51,389
我们需要理解潜在影响

337
00:12:51,389 --> 00:12:54,330
网络安全领域的短期风险

338
00:12:54,330 --> 00:12:57,339
并将结果分享以帮助网络安全防御者

339
00:12:58,408 --> 00:13:01,288
现在你可能已经开始思考

340
00:13:01,288 --> 00:13:01,528
好的

341
00:13:01,528 --> 00:13:05,730
我不明白这对网络安全公司有何不利

342
00:13:05,730 --> 00:13:06,450
首先

343
00:13:06,450 --> 00:13:09,110
正如你所知，网络安全公司各有不同

344
00:13:09,110 --> 00:13:15,700
我喜欢Rubric的原因在于它已预设攻击会发生

345
00:13:15,700 --> 00:13:18,919
Rubric已预设数据泄露会发生

346
00:13:18,919 --> 00:13:20,539
当这些事件发生时

347
00:13:20,539 --> 00:13:23,078
你需要第二道防线

348
00:13:23,078 --> 00:13:26,278
而这正是Rubric的作用

349
00:13:26,278 --> 00:13:26,789
所以

350
00:13:26,789 --> 00:13:31,240
在我的案例中，我认为这对评分标准来说是一件相当积极的事情

351
00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,299
至于其他所有公司

352
00:13:33,299 --> 00:13:35,379
人群袭击了帕洛阿尔托

353
00:13:35,379 --> 00:13:37,399
当然他们也在使用人工智能

354
00:13:37,399 --> 00:13:40,350
但在这个案例中，市场现在所恐惧的

355
00:13:40,350 --> 00:13:45,120
是攻击企业将变得极其廉价

356
00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:49,970
而防御方将付出越来越高的代价

357
00:13:49,970 --> 00:13:50,610
不

358
00:13:50,610 --> 00:13:51,009
好的

359
00:13:51,009 --> 00:13:54,250
这可能是市场目前的担忧

360
00:13:54,250 --> 00:13:59,649
但我认为整个网络安全领域始终是猫鼠游戏

361
00:13:59,649 --> 00:14:01,570
就像汤姆与杰瑞

362
00:14:01,570 --> 00:14:02,960
类型的故事

363
00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:04,220
我们发布新产品

364
00:14:04,220 --> 00:14:07,799
试图防御现有威胁和未来威胁

365
00:14:07,799 --> 00:14:08,960
你们尝试攻击我们

366
00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:10,220
我们尝试防御等等

367
00:14:10,220 --> 00:14:14,578
这些公司内部也在互相攻击解决方案

368
00:14:14,578 --> 00:14:18,679
有人说网络安全公司制造病毒

369
00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,139
以促进产品销售

370
00:14:21,139 --> 00:14:21,740
这

371
00:14:21,740 --> 00:14:22,340
好的

372
00:14:22,340 --> 00:14:24,370
我想这说得通

373
00:14:24,370 --> 00:14:25,970
但目前看来是的

374
00:14:25,970 --> 00:14:29,940
市场就像其他软件公司一样

375
00:14:29,940 --> 00:14:31,460
什么溢价

376
00:14:31,460 --> 00:14:32,019
什么价格

377
00:14:32,019 --> 00:14:35,139
这些公司能开始向其他公司索要

378
00:14:35,139 --> 00:14:36,330
如果

379
00:14:36,330 --> 00:14:39,590
在此情况下，Cloth开始发布自己的解决方案

380
00:14:39,590 --> 00:14:43,299
他们的解决方案比CrowdStrike更便宜

381
00:14:43,299 --> 00:14:44,360
帕洛阿尔托的方案

382
00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:46,720
或Sentinel One的方案

383
00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:51,259
尽管我认为这些公司会使用Claude

384
00:14:51,259 --> 00:14:52,019
将使用人工智能

385
00:14:52,019 --> 00:14:54,740
以提升自身解决方案

386
00:14:54,740 --> 00:14:58,759
但目前市场似乎不太在意

387
00:14:58,759 --> 00:15:02,259
这就是我们现在看到的情况

388
00:15:02,259 --> 00:15:04,000
软件领域更多痛苦

389
00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,399
在此网络安全领域

390
00:15:06,399 --> 00:15:10,009
但如周五市场开盘时

391
00:15:10,009 --> 00:15:13,200
可以看到多数股票呈红色

392
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:14,120
什么绿色

393
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:15,340
令人惊讶的是

394
00:15:15,340 --> 00:15:16,200
是美光科技

395
00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:17,399
但这并不意外

396
00:15:17,399 --> 00:15:19,230
因为我们昨天讨论过

397
00:15:19,230 --> 00:15:22,669
这可能是内存领域的大海时刻

398
00:15:22,669 --> 00:15:26,570
我们将看到内存需求增加

399
00:15:26,570 --> 00:15:28,070
而非减少

400
00:15:28,070 --> 00:15:31,519
因为它可能变得更实惠且更高效

401
00:15:31,519 --> 00:15:33,720
接下来我们来看看其中一个最爱

402
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:34,899
那就是沙发

403
00:15:34,899 --> 00:15:35,860
如你所见

404
00:15:35,860 --> 00:15:39,860
目前正经历5.28%的回撤

405
00:15:39,860 --> 00:15:42,799
自11月达到高点以来

406
00:15:42,799 --> 00:15:44,919
确切地说是2025年中旬

407
00:15:44,919 --> 00:15:46,850
大多数增长型股票

408
00:15:46,850 --> 00:15:48,750
那些涨幅显著的股票

409
00:15:48,750 --> 00:15:50,090
已触及峰值

410
00:15:50,090 --> 00:15:52,129
出现5.2%的回撤

411
00:15:52,129 --> 00:15:54,679
但公司却越来越好

412
00:15:54,679 --> 00:15:57,799
这值得在日线图上特别指出

413
00:15:57,799 --> 00:16:00,159
目前明显超卖

414
00:16:00,159 --> 00:16:02,700
当前股价低于16美元/股

415
00:16:02,700 --> 00:16:06,460
尽管周四公布了积极消息

416
00:16:09,519 --> 00:16:14,490
签署多项新协议总额超36亿美元

417
00:16:17,309 --> 00:16:22,340
与全球领先银行达成长期贷款交付超10亿美元

418
00:16:24,639 --> 00:16:30,860
与金融服务及保险集团签订6亿美元十二个月协议

419
00:16:30,860 --> 00:16:31,659
此外

420
00:16:31,659 --> 00:16:33,860
我已敲定新合作伙伴协议

421
00:16:33,860 --> 00:16:36,950
与全球五大私人资产管理公司之一

422
00:16:36,950 --> 00:16:41,830
预计未来两年贡献20亿美元

423
00:16:41,830 --> 00:16:44,139
安东尼奥表示

424
00:16:44,139 --> 00:16:46,440
新增三家合作伙伴加入我们的网络

425
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,289
机构投资者及更广泛合作伙伴

426
00:16:53,289 --> 00:16:56,629
通过连接强劲借贷需求与机构资本

427
00:17:02,220 --> 00:17:06,220
同时利用现有承销技术平台能力

428
00:17:06,220 --> 00:17:06,720
定价

429
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,779
营销与服务在2025年

430
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:18,980
尽管强劲的借贷需求仍导致股价进一步下跌

431
00:17:18,980 --> 00:17:19,220
现在

432
00:17:19,220 --> 00:17:22,259
有趣的是回到2025年

433
00:17:22,259 --> 00:17:24,789
甚至到四季度

434
00:17:24,789 --> 00:17:31,339
从37亿美元中实现约1.94亿美元收入

435
00:17:31,339 --> 00:17:35,019
年化速动率5.2%

436
00:17:35,019 --> 00:17:37,440
即7.75亿美元

437
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,579
我们拥有约148亿美元

438
00:17:42,670 --> 00:17:46,170
速动率将维持5.2%

439
00:17:46,170 --> 00:17:49,819
若回顾昨日公告

440
00:17:49,819 --> 00:17:53,059
在5.2%的速动率下

441
00:17:53,059 --> 00:17:56,019
将产生约1.35亿美元

442
00:17:56,019 --> 00:17:56,880
大约

443
00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:01,349
可能甚至在年度收入增量上还会更多

444
00:18:01,349 --> 00:18:03,380
现在情况确实很不寻常对吧

445
00:18:03,380 --> 00:18:05,440
这仅仅来自一次公告

446
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:06,519
这就是目前的情况

447
00:18:06,519 --> 00:18:09,420
然而股价再次大幅下跌

448
00:18:09,420 --> 00:18:12,089
即使他们宣布这将

449
00:18:12,089 --> 00:18:14,089
基于我们这里的假设

450
00:18:14,089 --> 00:18:19,369
年度收入增量将增加1.35亿美元

451
00:18:19,369 --> 00:18:22,469
我们还有两位分析师出来辩护

452
00:18:22,469 --> 00:18:23,648
我最近

453
00:18:23,648 --> 00:18:25,148
一位来自高盛

454
00:18:25,148 --> 00:18:26,449
维持中性评级

455
00:18:26,449 --> 00:18:29,469
并维持25美元的目标价

456
00:18:29,469 --> 00:18:30,559
关键要点

457
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:35,609
扩大融资能力

458
00:18:35,609 --> 00:18:37,329
从全球银行获得10亿美元

459
00:18:37,329 --> 00:18:38,970
600亿美元保险协议

460
00:18:38,970 --> 00:18:44,199
与资产管理公司两年内合作20亿美元

461
00:18:44,199 --> 00:18:46,419
当前市场情绪中性

462
00:18:46,419 --> 00:18:48,519
他们积极看待融资扩展

463
00:18:48,519 --> 00:18:50,759
但保持谨慎立场

464
00:18:50,759 --> 00:18:52,279
他们预计5.7点

465
00:18:52,279 --> 00:18:55,909
基于当前股价有6%的上涨空间

466
00:18:55,909 --> 00:18:57,628
并基于自身目标价

467
00:18:57,628 --> 00:18:58,388
然后我们有

468
00:18:58,388 --> 00:19:01,449
当然还有金融科技看多者伊佐丹多列夫

469
00:19:01,449 --> 00:19:05,528
维持跑赢大盘评级和3.8美元目标价

470
00:19:05,528 --> 00:19:09,209
这相当于当前股价的近140%涨幅

471
00:19:09,209 --> 00:19:10,348
而当前股价为

472
00:19:10,348 --> 00:19:11,088
同样在这里

473
00:19:12,648 --> 00:19:14,000
业务合作伙伴关系

474
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:15,519
强劲机构需求

475
00:19:15,519 --> 00:19:15,819
帮助

476
00:19:15,819 --> 00:19:17,680
缓解消费信贷担忧

477
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,500
个人贷款表现担忧

478
00:19:19,500 --> 00:19:21,109
通过新协议得以缓解

479
00:19:21,109 --> 00:19:21,529
强劲

480
00:19:21,529 --> 00:19:24,069
四季度业绩和积极指引支持

481
00:19:24,069 --> 00:19:25,589
未来展望

482
00:19:25,589 --> 00:19:26,970
我并不意外

483
00:19:26,970 --> 00:19:30,650
我也并不意外

484
00:19:30,650 --> 00:19:34,640
所有分析师实际上都采取了更积极立场

485
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,460
或维持对公司的正面看法

486
00:19:37,460 --> 00:19:40,190
尽管面临做空困扰

487
00:19:40,190 --> 00:19:43,630
一周前发布的做空报告

488
00:19:43,630 --> 00:19:44,109
是的

489
00:19:44,109 --> 00:19:45,769
股价确实下跌了

490
00:19:45,769 --> 00:19:49,589
但正如我们看到的，做空报告发布当日

491
00:19:49,589 --> 00:19:51,180
即使第二天

492
00:19:51,180 --> 00:19:55,880
我不认为做空者看到了他们预期的走势

493
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:56,480
但没错

494
00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,309
一度暴跌了五个百分点

495
00:19:59,309 --> 00:20:02,420
但收盘前又大幅回升

496
00:20:02,420 --> 00:20:04,740
当然现在我们比之前更低了

497
00:20:04,740 --> 00:20:05,980
我们比之前更低了

498
00:20:05,980 --> 00:20:07,000
不是买入的

499
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:08,460
更多股票

500
00:20:08,460 --> 00:20:11,240
但这更多是宏观相关

501
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:11,640
哦

502
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,180
这家公司本身就是欺诈

503
00:20:14,180 --> 00:20:16,500
但这也是许多公司的情况

504
00:20:16,500 --> 00:20:17,220
现在

505
00:20:17,220 --> 00:20:19,180
这些公司都经历了

506
00:20:19,180 --> 00:20:19,859
是的

507
00:20:19,859 --> 00:20:22,339
有些经历了更严重的回调

508
00:20:22,339 --> 00:20:24,200
如果我们看今年以来的表现

509
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:25,519
可以看到大量红色

510
00:20:25,519 --> 00:20:28,480
当然也有一些绿色区域

511
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:29,779
但可以看到大量红色

512
00:20:29,779 --> 00:20:34,240
甚至在非常盈利的公司中

513
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,119
有人称之为垄断性

514
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:36,359
我是说

515
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,440
即使谈到万事达卡

516
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:39,230
维萨

517
00:20:39,230 --> 00:20:40,049
FICO

518
00:20:40,049 --> 00:20:41,130
这类公司

519
00:20:41,130 --> 00:20:42,410
例如FICO

520
00:20:42,410 --> 00:20:47,130
阿米尔（频道好友）将发布更新报告

521
00:20:47,130 --> 00:20:49,190
如果你订阅了他的简讯

522
00:20:49,190 --> 00:20:52,039
他的研究报告预计新的FICO数据

523
00:20:52,039 --> 00:20:53,720
将有一份研究报告发布

524
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,140
但关于FICO的核心问题

525
00:20:55,140 --> 00:20:55,980
例如是

526
00:20:55,980 --> 00:20:56,259
哦

527
00:20:56,259 --> 00:20:59,578
FICO股价上涨了七百%

528
00:20:59,578 --> 00:21:00,618
或类似幅度

529
00:21:00,618 --> 00:21:01,078
是的

530
00:21:01,078 --> 00:21:01,298
好的

531
00:21:01,298 --> 00:21:03,179
七百%的涨幅看起来很吓人

532
00:21:03,179 --> 00:21:06,220
但实际金额并不大

533
00:21:06,220 --> 00:21:11,339
而且相对于整体成本比例

534
00:21:11,339 --> 00:21:16,339
我认为这不会影响所有高价房贷等

535
00:21:16,339 --> 00:21:18,630
但作为具体数字

536
00:21:18,630 --> 00:21:20,750
这个数字非常显眼

537
00:21:20,750 --> 00:21:25,230
攻击FICO比攻击其他公司更容易

538
00:21:25,230 --> 00:21:28,589
他们也大幅提高了价格

539
00:21:28,589 --> 00:21:32,319
他们提高的金额影响更大

540
00:21:32,319 --> 00:21:36,549
比FICO分数调整的小额涨幅影响更大

541
00:21:36,549 --> 00:21:38,250
而此刻正如始终

542
00:21:38,250 --> 00:21:41,319
关于这个问题总有两个角度可以思考

543
00:21:41,319 --> 00:21:42,980
你不想做任何事情

544
00:21:42,980 --> 00:21:44,660
你只是在保持持仓观察

545
00:21:44,660 --> 00:21:48,469
当局势开始趋于稳定

546
00:21:48,469 --> 00:21:50,480
或许市场已现复苏迹象

547
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:51,660
这完全没问题

548
00:21:51,660 --> 00:21:52,880
你也可以尝试期权策略

549
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:53,460
当然

550
00:21:53,460 --> 00:21:54,619
卖出保护性看涨期权

551
00:21:54,619 --> 00:21:56,339
每周收取溢价收益

552
00:21:56,339 --> 00:21:59,279
这样亏损就不会太严重

553
00:21:59,279 --> 00:22:01,529
这也是种可能性

554
00:22:01,529 --> 00:22:03,990
另一种可能性同样可行

555
00:22:03,990 --> 00:22:05,519
你已筹集足够现金

556
00:22:05,519 --> 00:22:06,759
发现优质投资机会

557
00:22:06,759 --> 00:22:09,319
开始逐步增持更多股份

558
00:22:09,319 --> 00:22:13,099
有人在投资组合更新视频中询问

559
00:22:13,099 --> 00:22:13,420
哦

560
00:22:13,420 --> 00:22:16,670
为何不现在一次性投入大额资金

561
00:22:16,670 --> 00:22:19,750
而非零散小额买入

562
00:22:19,750 --> 00:22:22,179
鉴于当前局势

563
00:22:22,179 --> 00:22:23,798
因为我不清楚底部何时出现

564
00:22:23,798 --> 00:22:26,299
这就是我不试图抄底的原因

565
00:22:26,299 --> 00:22:29,680
我看到优质公司以极具吸引力的价格交易

566
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:30,740
所以是的

567
00:22:30,740 --> 00:22:34,359
每周我都在逐步增持该仓位

568
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:35,700
在该仓位上继续加码

569
00:22:35,700 --> 00:22:38,109
持续积累更多股份

570
00:22:38,109 --> 00:22:38,910
因为我的最终目标是

571
00:22:38,910 --> 00:22:43,029
当然要尽可能持有心仪公司的股份

572
00:22:43,029 --> 00:22:44,170
正如你所见

573
00:22:44,170 --> 00:22:48,210
这并不妨碍我从投资组合中减仓

574
00:22:48,210 --> 00:22:51,888
若发现其他持仓更具吸引力

575
00:22:51,888 --> 00:22:54,859
我会减持当前持仓

576
00:22:54,859 --> 00:22:56,099
这些仍是优质公司

577
00:22:56,099 --> 00:23:00,220
但相比现有持仓吸引力不足

578
00:23:00,220 --> 00:23:02,619
这也是投资过程中学到的

579
00:23:02,619 --> 00:23:05,059
因为我知道从投资组合中减仓

580
00:23:05,059 --> 00:23:07,059
尤其是亏损持仓时

581
00:23:07,059 --> 00:23:10,160
有时会感觉是错误操作

582
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:14,799
但历史证明通常是正确选择

583
00:23:14,799 --> 00:23:16,519
总而言之这就是全部内容

584
00:23:16,519 --> 00:23:17,839
今天节目到此为止

585
00:23:17,839 --> 00:23:20,160
请在评论区告诉我你的看法

586
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:24,278
或分享你的观点和顾虑

587
00:23:24,278 --> 00:23:26,298
祝大家周末愉快

588
00:23:26,298 --> 00:23:27,519
我们下次再见

589
00:23:27,519 --> 00:23:27,818
再见

590
00:23:27,818 --> 00:23:28,359
再见

共 3 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕