1
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你得把煎饼直接扔进垃圾火堆里
2
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天啊
3
00:00:05,059 --> 00:00:06,419
看看这些动作
4
00:00:06,419 --> 00:00:08,960
SaaS股票持续暴跌
5
00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:11,380
Service Now下跌17点
6
00:00:11,380 --> 00:00:13,128
今日下跌7%
7
00:00:13,128 --> 00:00:14,368
Salesforce暴跌
8
00:00:14,368 --> 00:00:15,368
IBM暴跌
9
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甚至Palantir今日跌7%
10
00:00:17,649 --> 00:00:18,649
Day Adobe和两个
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It Shopify
12
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天啊
13
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简直惨不忍睹
14
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我们将在视频开头讨论SaaS股票
15
00:00:25,289 --> 00:00:26,710
这里的机会在哪里
16
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这里的恐惧又是什么
17
00:00:28,309 --> 00:00:29,449
什么是合理的
18
00:00:29,449 --> 00:00:30,390
什么是不合理的
19
00:00:30,390 --> 00:00:31,829
我们将在视频开头详细分析
20
00:00:31,829 --> 00:00:34,039
如果存在重大机会
21
00:00:34,039 --> 00:00:35,299
那么我们将讨论AMD
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AMD今日再创历史新高
23
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本视频将解析AMD
24
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今日之后我们将回归SaaS股票
25
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Service Now的CEO
26
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Mcdermott五小时前在彭博社发表评论
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我想对此做出反应
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00:00:50,210 --> 00:00:52,329
理解业务现状非常重要
29
00:00:52,329 --> 00:00:54,929
因为这是那种关键时刻
30
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你知道的
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00:00:55,509 --> 00:00:57,249
特定股票如Service Now
32
00:00:57,249 --> 00:00:59,819
或Salesforce当你考虑买入这些股票时
33
00:00:59,819 --> 00:01:02,229
未来三到五年可能赚大钱
34
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或陷入死钱
35
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没错,必须仔细听取这些人的观点
36
00:01:06,750 --> 00:01:08,310
实际业务现状如何
37
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嗯
38
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在这些商业模式方面
39
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为了应对这一点
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投资者无需改变对软件行业的看法
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期待对此做出反应
42
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:17,719
接着我们将讨论Meta股票
43
00:01:17,719 --> 00:01:20,400
许多人过去几年买入Meta股票
44
00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:21,439
可能是投资者
45
00:01:21,439 --> 00:01:22,849
这是我的重大投资
46
00:01:22,849 --> 00:01:23,409
嗯
47
00:01:23,409 --> 00:01:24,650
今日大幅波动
48
00:01:24,650 --> 00:01:26,329
我想谈谈当前情况
49
00:01:26,329 --> 00:01:27,900
我的观点与看法
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00:01:27,900 --> 00:01:28,700
所有这些重要内容
51
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一件事
52
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我只需要你们做一件事
53
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我尽量保持你们及时了解
54
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正在发生的一切
55
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我们面对的是快速变化的市场
56
00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,879
而我唯一的要求就是点个小小的赞
57
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那个点赞按钮
58
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如果你能点击那个点赞图标
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这对我来说意义重大
60
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对已经做到的每一个人
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你们根本不需要我提醒
62
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非常感谢你们
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我真的很感激
64
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另外
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请务必订阅频道
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这完全免费
67
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在这里订阅完全免费
68
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为什么要不这么做呢?保持信息同步
69
00:01:54,709 --> 00:01:55,670
我要分享股票信息
70
00:01:55,670 --> 00:01:56,370
我要跟进市场动向
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我要抓住下一个大机会
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我们正在视频中讨论这个
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好的
74
00:01:59,750 --> 00:02:02,450
听着,SaaS领域
75
00:02:02,450 --> 00:02:02,769
股票
76
00:02:05,049 --> 00:02:09,199
这些股票反复给你虚假希望
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00:02:09,199 --> 00:02:10,759
每次你以为
78
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好的
79
00:02:11,379 --> 00:02:12,360
我们已脱离险境
80
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接下来将一路攀升
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它们又回落下来
82
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就像
83
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天啊
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像
85
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我们能不能喘口气
86
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你知道的
87
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这些股票真的会触底反弹吗
88
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那恐惧来自哪里
89
00:02:25,189 --> 00:02:25,710
好的
90
00:02:25,710 --> 00:02:26,530
对于这些股票
91
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其中一个因素是
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00:02:26,969 --> 00:02:27,330
我们都知道
93
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其中一个担忧是
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哦
95
00:02:28,819 --> 00:02:31,659
你们能完全替代ServiceNow产品
96
00:02:31,659 --> 00:02:33,960
以及Salesforce产品在Adobe和Intuit的应用
97
00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:35,759
你们将能够全面替代
98
00:02:35,759 --> 00:02:38,960
只需几个LLM提示词就能搞定
99
00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:39,539
就是这样
100
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你知道的
101
00:02:40,039 --> 00:02:41,500
你完全解决了这个问题
102
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嗯
103
00:02:42,430 --> 00:02:43,689
不是这样运作的
104
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不是这样运作的
105
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好的
106
00:02:45,129 --> 00:02:46,530
但这是个大问题
107
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好的
108
00:02:47,340 --> 00:02:50,800
第二大担忧是我们昨天看到的服务现在的情况
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好的
110
00:02:51,300 --> 00:02:54,180
如果从服务现在的数据来看
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收入增长非常惊人
112
00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,400
同比增长两位数的收入增长
113
00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:00,740
简直了对吧
114
00:03:00,740 --> 00:03:01,960
H h 嗒啦啦
115
00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:03,860
但开支方面
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00:03:03,860 --> 00:03:05,199
他们面临开支问题
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营业利润仅增长了12%
118
00:03:08,599 --> 00:03:09,719
这不是好数据
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00:03:09,719 --> 00:03:14,870
希望营业利润能比收入增长更快
120
00:03:14,870 --> 00:03:17,449
如果你的收入增长两位数
121
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希望营业利润增长两位
122
00:03:19,650 --> 00:03:20,289
六个百分点
123
00:03:20,289 --> 00:03:20,789
增长三十
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两个百分点
125
00:03:21,509 --> 00:03:22,909
增长三五个百分点
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00:03:22,909 --> 00:03:24,289
增长四十个百分点
127
00:03:24,289 --> 00:03:26,909
这意味着你的商业模式正在产生实际杠杆效应
128
00:03:26,909 --> 00:03:28,250
你正在控制开支
129
00:03:28,250 --> 00:03:29,759
而收入快速增长
130
00:03:29,759 --> 00:03:33,300
如果营业利润增长幅度比收入低一个千分点
131
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差距
132
00:03:35,990 --> 00:03:38,349
所以另一个担忧是
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这些公司正在大量投入AI
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但听我说
135
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这不是仅限于SaaS领域
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好的
137
00:03:46,300 --> 00:03:46,740
猜猜看
138
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猜什么
139
00:03:47,199 --> 00:03:49,479
还有哪些公司正在疯狂花钱
140
00:03:49,479 --> 00:03:50,329
亚马逊
141
00:03:50,329 --> 00:03:50,808
谷歌
142
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麦当劳
143
00:03:52,389 --> 00:03:53,649
所有这些股票
144
00:03:53,649 --> 00:03:57,229
它们现在都面临巨额开支问题
145
00:03:57,229 --> 00:03:59,269
短期内这种情况将持续
146
00:03:59,269 --> 00:04:02,800
这些公司正在巨额投入AI未来
147
00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,210
他们相信这将大幅提升公司
148
00:04:06,210 --> 00:04:07,349
市值
149
00:04:07,349 --> 00:04:08,189
收入
150
00:04:08,189 --> 00:04:13,550
未来五到十年甚至二十年的利润
151
00:04:13,550 --> 00:04:16,230
坦白说
152
00:04:16,230 --> 00:04:19,290
你推出过的每项技术
153
00:04:19,290 --> 00:04:21,829
早期需要大量投资周期
154
00:04:21,829 --> 00:04:29,209
没错,技术周期的胜出者最终收益将大幅增长
155
00:04:29,209 --> 00:04:31,769
远超最初的投入
156
00:04:31,769 --> 00:04:34,730
他们最初投入的技术资金
157
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好的
158
00:04:35,250 --> 00:04:38,298
所以这需要记住这一点
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现在好了
160
00:04:40,319 --> 00:04:41,319
在我看来
161
00:04:41,319 --> 00:04:42,598
在SaaS股票方面
162
00:04:42,598 --> 00:04:43,139
好的
163
00:04:43,139 --> 00:04:44,230
听着,我
164
00:04:44,230 --> 00:04:46,910
我明天就要买入股票了
165
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你了解我的
166
00:04:47,509 --> 00:04:49,550
我每周五收盘时必买股票
167
00:04:49,550 --> 00:04:50,730
甚至周四也会买
168
00:04:50,730 --> 00:04:54,589
但明天我会在公开账户买入股票
169
00:04:54,589 --> 00:04:57,449
明天我会在Patreon组合中买入股票
170
00:04:57,449 --> 00:05:00,350
明天我会在私人组合中买入股票
171
00:05:00,350 --> 00:05:00,689
没错
172
00:05:00,689 --> 00:05:02,579
这是我每周的固定操作
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00:05:02,579 --> 00:05:04,699
总是不同股票
174
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问题在于
175
00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:11,639
明天我会买入哪些股票
176
00:05:11,639 --> 00:05:12,199
没错
177
00:05:12,199 --> 00:05:14,939
我可以告诉你明天要买入的股票
178
00:05:14,939 --> 00:05:17,620
都是SaaS股票
179
00:05:17,620 --> 00:05:21,319
明天我会买入Salesforce和ServiceNow这类公司
180
00:05:21,319 --> 00:05:26,589
没错,我认为这是绝佳机会
181
00:05:26,750 --> 00:05:28,430
我们马上会听到ServiceNow的CEO发言
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00:05:28,430 --> 00:05:29,350
就在下一刻
183
00:05:29,350 --> 00:05:31,639
这可能增强你的信心
184
00:05:31,639 --> 00:05:33,839
我认为我们正在经历的这段时期
185
00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,189
未来几年都是绝佳机会
186
00:05:36,189 --> 00:05:36,990
在这些股票中
187
00:05:39,389 --> 00:05:40,149
在这些股票中
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未来五个月
189
00:05:41,730 --> 00:05:43,129
你的猜测和我一样
190
00:05:43,129 --> 00:05:45,470
ServiceNow股价还能涨多少
191
00:05:45,470 --> 00:05:46,930
这只股票现在是下跌了吗
192
00:05:46,930 --> 00:05:47,730
还是上涨了
193
00:05:47,730 --> 00:05:48,990
你的猜测和我一样
194
00:05:48,990 --> 00:05:50,730
如果这只股票今天83美元
195
00:05:50,730 --> 00:05:53,589
我不知道接下来20美元可能跌至63美元
196
00:05:53,589 --> 00:05:56,089
也可能涨至100到103美元
197
00:05:56,089 --> 00:05:58,589
我不知道,说实话我不在意
198
00:05:58,589 --> 00:05:59,490
你们了解我的
199
00:05:59,490 --> 00:06:01,319
我是这些公司的长期投资者
200
00:06:01,319 --> 00:06:02,819
我现在正在投资服务
201
00:06:02,819 --> 00:06:06,319
因为我相信这家公司股价有望再次突破两百美元
202
00:06:06,319 --> 00:06:09,370
所以这无关紧要
203
00:06:09,370 --> 00:06:12,550
无论股价从这里再跌二十美元还是涨二十美元
204
00:06:12,550 --> 00:06:15,509
你知道的,我专注于两百美元以上的目标
205
00:06:15,509 --> 00:06:17,110
如果这次投资成功
206
00:06:17,110 --> 00:06:19,430
那将是因股价大幅上涨
207
00:06:19,430 --> 00:06:20,550
而不是小幅波动
208
00:06:20,550 --> 00:06:21,120
好的
209
00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,560
说到大幅上涨的股票
210
00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,300
没错,顺便说一下私有股票群成员观看视频
211
00:06:26,300 --> 00:06:26,740
我放了
212
00:06:26,740 --> 00:06:28,300
我专门为你们做了独家视频
213
00:06:28,300 --> 00:06:29,079
讲的是SAS
214
00:06:29,079 --> 00:06:29,360
股票
215
00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:30,149
快去看看
216
00:06:30,149 --> 00:06:31,310
我会在面包屑里发布
217
00:06:31,310 --> 00:06:32,930
点击加入我的私有群组
218
00:06:32,930 --> 00:06:33,310
顺便说一句
219
00:06:33,310 --> 00:06:35,709
你想要所有独家视频的访问权限
220
00:06:35,709 --> 00:06:38,350
访问我的所有课程大纲
221
00:06:38,350 --> 00:06:39,750
访问我的私有Discord聊天室
222
00:06:39,750 --> 00:06:40,860
这里会不断更新
223
00:06:40,860 --> 00:06:42,699
嗯,访问ThousandXStocks.com
224
00:06:42,699 --> 00:06:43,360
所有优质内容
225
00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,259
这些都会在视频下方置顶评论
226
00:06:45,259 --> 00:06:46,680
请点击填写表单
227
00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,189
我们会检查你是否能获得访问权限
228
00:06:49,189 --> 00:06:51,310
可能这个周末或下周
229
00:06:51,310 --> 00:06:54,199
好的,我们将寄送你的钢制会员卡
230
00:06:54,199 --> 00:06:55,839
一旦加入我们
231
00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:57,160
我们会寄到你家
232
00:06:58,399 --> 00:06:59,060
这些卡片非常精美
233
00:06:59,060 --> 00:06:59,750
好的
234
00:06:59,750 --> 00:07:02,189
说到美丽的AMD股票真是美丽
235
00:07:02,189 --> 00:07:03,149
天啊
236
00:07:03,149 --> 00:07:04,259
这支股票太漂亮了
237
00:07:04,259 --> 00:07:05,500
创下历史新高
238
00:07:05,500 --> 00:07:08,540
几乎每天我都在之前的帖子中提到过
239
00:07:08,540 --> 00:07:08,899
顺便说一句
240
00:07:08,899 --> 00:07:10,899
我的推特始终在下方描述区域
241
00:07:10,899 --> 00:07:12,990
如果你想在X上关注我但已发布
242
00:07:12,990 --> 00:07:13,629
现在你知道了
243
00:07:13,629 --> 00:07:21,310
在AMD上持有五十四万美元的盈利令人难以置信
244
00:07:21,310 --> 00:07:25,990
最棒的是我持有大量AMD股票
245
00:07:25,990 --> 00:07:27,470
在我的其他投资组合中
246
00:07:27,470 --> 00:07:28,430
AMD是最大持仓
247
00:07:28,430 --> 00:07:31,579
在Patreon和私有投资组合中
248
00:07:31,579 --> 00:07:34,939
我在AMD股票上赚得盆满钵满
249
00:07:34,939 --> 00:07:36,899
所以就像
250
00:07:36,899 --> 00:07:38,180
太棒了,兄弟
251
00:07:38,180 --> 00:07:41,949
我只是对AMD感到非常开心
252
00:07:41,949 --> 00:07:46,048
最棒的是,昨晚在主频道谈到AMD时
253
00:07:46,048 --> 00:07:46,769
金融教育
254
00:07:46,769 --> 00:07:50,189
我在视频里还提到了AMD和其他几个话题
255
00:07:50,470 --> 00:07:52,290
AMD最令人惊叹的地方
256
00:07:52,290 --> 00:07:53,389
你看这只股票
257
00:07:53,389 --> 00:07:55,769
背后有惊人的上涨动能
258
00:07:55,769 --> 00:07:56,538
没错
259
00:07:56,538 --> 00:08:00,500
三到四千五系列的出货量还没真正
260
00:08:00,500 --> 00:08:01,060
你知道的
261
00:08:01,060 --> 00:08:01,959
还没完全到位
262
00:08:01,959 --> 00:08:05,089
四千五系列的大规模出货会在夏季到来
263
00:08:05,089 --> 00:08:07,689
我们将继续保持高度和兴奋
264
00:08:07,689 --> 00:08:09,930
未来一段时间还会持续流入这只股票
265
00:08:09,930 --> 00:08:10,589
没错
266
00:08:10,589 --> 00:08:12,670
财报将在几周后公布
267
00:08:12,670 --> 00:08:13,769
这会很令人兴奋
268
00:08:13,769 --> 00:08:14,649
指引情况如何
269
00:08:14,649 --> 00:08:16,930
丽莎,评论内容是怎样的
270
00:08:16,930 --> 00:08:19,029
要讨论的团队规模可能比我们预期更大
271
00:08:19,029 --> 00:08:19,930
这是有可能的
272
00:08:19,930 --> 00:08:20,730
对吧
273
00:08:20,730 --> 00:08:21,329
呃
274
00:08:21,329 --> 00:08:22,970
我们看到的完全没有放缓迹象
275
00:08:22,970 --> 00:08:25,529
CPU需求完全没有放缓
276
00:08:25,529 --> 00:08:26,529
GPU需求
277
00:08:26,529 --> 00:08:28,589
这太棒了
278
00:08:29,029 --> 00:08:30,569
但最棒的是
279
00:08:30,569 --> 00:08:32,169
或许整个故事中最精彩的部分
280
00:08:32,169 --> 00:08:36,179
最顶上的惊喜是三百美元价位
281
00:08:36,179 --> 00:08:37,899
这只股票可能仍处于这波行情初期
282
00:08:37,899 --> 00:08:43,500
未来几年这只股票有潜力涨到一千美元
283
00:08:43,500 --> 00:08:46,000
昨晚我在主频道给你做过详细计算
284
00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:47,360
金融教育没错
285
00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:51,620
我在主频道给你做过相关数学推演
286
00:08:51,620 --> 00:08:54,220
这只热门股票未来几年或涨到一千美元
287
00:08:54,220 --> 00:08:56,740
我估计五百美元
288
00:08:57,179 --> 00:08:58,879
但还没完全确定
289
00:08:58,879 --> 00:08:59,940
不过已经非常接近了
290
00:08:59,940 --> 00:09:02,299
如果你想知道离确定还有多远
291
00:09:02,299 --> 00:09:04,240
未来几年股票涨到五百美元
292
00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:05,809
已经非常接近确定了
293
00:09:05,809 --> 00:09:07,389
我认为最大的问题是
294
00:09:07,389 --> 00:09:09,269
未来几年的顶部会在哪里
295
00:09:09,269 --> 00:09:11,450
是七百五还是千美元
296
00:09:11,450 --> 00:09:13,289
是一千五还是两千元
297
00:09:13,289 --> 00:09:15,909
这是我对AMD最大的疑问
298
00:09:15,909 --> 00:09:18,279
这很大程度上取决于
299
00:09:18,279 --> 00:09:20,000
营收增长幅度
300
00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:23,840
利润增长速度比收入增长快多少
301
00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,039
对AMD来说最好的事情
302
00:09:25,039 --> 00:09:26,610
他们没有问题
303
00:09:26,889 --> 00:09:28,610
就像亚马逊或Meta那样
304
00:09:28,610 --> 00:09:29,289
或者SaaS
305
00:09:29,289 --> 00:09:31,590
像谷歌或这些公司的股票
306
00:09:31,590 --> 00:09:35,938
因为他们的利润率在未来几年可能会大幅上升
307
00:09:35,938 --> 00:09:38,068
因为他们不需要疯狂投入
308
00:09:38,068 --> 00:09:39,308
他们在增加研发支出
309
00:09:39,308 --> 00:09:41,509
但收入增长幅度要大得多
310
00:09:41,509 --> 00:09:44,249
这些新一代芯片的利润率将更具竞争力
311
00:09:44,249 --> 00:09:45,240
在未来几年
312
00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:46,419
这将非常惊人
313
00:09:46,419 --> 00:09:49,000
利润和每股收益将大幅增长
314
00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,860
增速会远超收入增长
315
00:09:52,860 --> 00:09:54,279
这是一个完美布局
316
00:09:54,279 --> 00:09:55,740
所以是的
317
00:09:55,740 --> 00:09:58,820
这就是我看好AMD未来几年的原因
318
00:09:58,820 --> 00:09:59,879
股票何时见顶
319
00:09:59,879 --> 00:10:01,610
七百五十到一千
320
00:10:02,730 --> 00:10:05,029
一千二百到一千五百到两千
321
00:10:05,029 --> 00:10:06,309
这是个大问题
322
00:10:06,309 --> 00:10:12,250
我的想法是
323
00:10:12,250 --> 00:10:14,870
股价可能在一千美元左右
324
00:10:14,870 --> 00:10:20,710
但多年来我低估了许多持有的股票
325
00:10:20,710 --> 00:10:25,139
低估了特斯拉的涨幅和Palantir
326
00:10:25,139 --> 00:10:26,299
我曾投资过一些股票
327
00:10:26,299 --> 00:10:29,299
赚取了惊人的收益率和巨额利润
328
00:10:29,299 --> 00:10:30,509
改变人生的财富
329
00:10:30,509 --> 00:10:32,549
股价涨幅甚至超出预期
330
00:10:32,549 --> 00:10:32,850
连我都没想到
331
00:10:32,850 --> 00:10:33,470
比如Meta
332
00:10:33,470 --> 00:10:33,789
你知道的
333
00:10:33,789 --> 00:10:35,029
看这只Meta股票
334
00:10:35,029 --> 00:10:37,789
这为我创造了百万级收益
335
00:10:37,789 --> 00:10:39,870
天啊,有时候甚至超出
336
00:10:39,870 --> 00:10:41,029
我原本以为可以
337
00:10:41,029 --> 00:10:41,389
让我们听听
338
00:10:41,389 --> 00:10:44,169
这对正在观看的观众来说非常重要
339
00:10:44,169 --> 00:10:47,370
ServiceNow首席执行官谈业务
340
00:10:47,370 --> 00:10:50,639
现在正是投资这只股票的绝佳时机
341
00:10:50,639 --> 00:10:52,250
逢低买入
342
00:10:52,250 --> 00:10:53,789
目前仍为两倍
343
00:10:53,789 --> 00:10:55,190
你压低了收入
344
00:10:55,190 --> 00:10:56,009
还有什么
345
00:10:56,009 --> 00:10:57,870
现在市场能理解吗Bill
346
00:10:57,870 --> 00:11:01,200
我认为必须基于事实分析
347
00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:01,899
嗯
348
00:11:01,899 --> 00:11:05,080
我们是一家150亿美元的企业软件公司
349
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:06,460
增长速度最快的企业
350
00:11:06,460 --> 00:11:08,990
它们的增速超过百分之二十
351
00:11:08,990 --> 00:11:11,049
我们有亮点并提升了季度业绩
352
00:11:11,049 --> 00:11:13,629
我们重申了全年业绩指引
353
00:11:13,629 --> 00:11:17,000
这就是讨论的基础
354
00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,299
我们是一家成长型企业
355
00:11:19,299 --> 00:11:21,519
我可以在任何你想的地方接受采访
356
00:11:21,519 --> 00:11:22,639
我想让它继续发展
357
00:11:22,639 --> 00:11:25,399
让我们谈谈地缘政治风险
358
00:11:25,399 --> 00:11:28,279
让我们讨论并购整合费用
359
00:11:28,279 --> 00:11:31,899
或许有些投资者和分析师提到的领域
360
00:11:31,899 --> 00:11:32,159
听着
361
00:11:32,159 --> 00:11:34,440
这让本季度显得稍显复杂
362
00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:34,990
也许吧
363
00:11:34,990 --> 00:11:37,309
或许更容易讲述这个故事
364
00:11:37,309 --> 00:11:42,179
当前服务采用阶段AI的底层增长率是多少
365
00:11:42,179 --> 00:11:42,720
是的
366
00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,279
需要明白AI就是产品本身
367
00:11:45,279 --> 00:11:46,679
这是整个平台
368
00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,039
该平台已完全自主化
369
00:11:49,039 --> 00:11:51,389
当客户购买我们的AI平台时
370
00:11:52,389 --> 00:11:58,340
它使企业每个职能都成为原生AI公司
371
00:11:58,340 --> 00:12:00,259
现在全部都是AI了
372
00:12:00,259 --> 00:12:01,960
这也是我们曾提到的
373
00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,320
我们计划在2026年实现二十亿
374
00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,210
净收入达十亿
375
00:12:06,210 --> 00:12:12,139
平台纯AI新增年合同价值
376
00:12:12,139 --> 00:12:12,698
昨天
377
00:12:12,698 --> 00:12:14,298
我们将其提升至一千五百万
378
00:12:14,298 --> 00:12:16,169
我们会详细说明这一点
379
00:12:16,169 --> 00:12:16,710
所以
380
00:12:16,710 --> 00:12:18,990
如果投资者有需求
381
00:12:18,990 --> 00:12:21,299
他们可能想要更大的惊喜
382
00:12:21,299 --> 00:12:23,379
我们每个季度都超额完成
383
00:12:23,379 --> 00:12:24,679
也许他们想要更大的惊喜
384
00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:25,980
接下来第二点是
385
00:12:25,980 --> 00:12:28,779
确实我们收购了几家公司
386
00:12:28,779 --> 00:12:32,029
让我们谈谈Move Veworks
387
00:12:32,029 --> 00:12:34,809
在本季度我们仅获得一个季度
388
00:12:34,809 --> 00:12:36,450
我们在一个季度内实现了
389
00:12:36,450 --> 00:12:41,240
这些公司在加入ServiceNow前从未在一个完整年度达成
390
00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:45,519
市场开拓机器知道如何将创新转化为收益
391
00:12:45,519 --> 00:12:46,490
其次
392
00:12:46,490 --> 00:12:48,850
我们收购了Vea和Armus
393
00:12:48,850 --> 00:12:50,389
Vea刚刚加入我们
394
00:12:50,389 --> 00:12:52,269
Armus周一刚加入我们
395
00:12:52,269 --> 00:12:53,730
市场可能认为
396
00:12:53,730 --> 00:12:58,220
他们是否通过并购掩盖核心增长不足
397
00:12:58,220 --> 00:13:01,480
这怎么可能,连数据中都没有体现
398
00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,779
这些公司确实非常出色
399
00:13:03,779 --> 00:13:07,259
因为现在你要管理人类与代理的身份
400
00:13:07,259 --> 00:13:08,860
这真的非常重要
401
00:13:08,860 --> 00:13:13,620
当你成为全球各大企业规章制度的核心时你想要
402
00:13:13,620 --> 00:13:18,360
与人类协作且高度可控的人工智能
403
00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:22,309
这就是vea以及armus运营的技术
404
00:13:22,309 --> 00:13:25,710
现在你要管理所有物联网设备
405
00:13:25,710 --> 00:13:26,350
网络
406
00:13:26,350 --> 00:13:27,970
设备等等
407
00:13:27,970 --> 00:13:30,330
以保持这些公司高度安全
408
00:13:30,330 --> 00:13:32,029
正如你比任何人都清楚的
409
00:13:32,029 --> 00:13:32,870
凯洛琳
410
00:13:32,870 --> 00:13:35,909
网络犯罪是全球第三大经济体
411
00:13:35,909 --> 00:13:38,259
每月造成万亿规模的问题
412
00:13:38,259 --> 00:13:42,519
而现在我们已打开六千亿的市场潜力
413
00:13:42,519 --> 00:13:46,340
所以我们正在追逐有史以来最大的机遇蓝海
414
00:13:46,340 --> 00:13:50,059
我们发展稳健且对全年指引充满信心
415
00:13:50,059 --> 00:13:55,639
我认为这是这支股票的最佳入场时机
416
00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:56,620
好的
417
00:13:56,620 --> 00:13:59,679
这非常重要且属于更高层次的主题
418
00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:01,279
我会尽量拆解说明
419
00:14:01,279 --> 00:14:02,100
尽可能简单明了
420
00:14:02,100 --> 00:14:02,399
好的
421
00:14:02,399 --> 00:14:03,000
这非常重要
422
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,580
你需要理解SaaS相关公司的并购逻辑
423
00:14:06,580 --> 00:14:07,279
好的
424
00:14:07,279 --> 00:14:07,960
听我说
425
00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:09,159
运作方式如下
426
00:14:09,159 --> 00:14:10,320
这为何重要
427
00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:11,879
对未来数据意味着什么
428
00:14:11,879 --> 00:14:13,340
好的听我说
429
00:14:13,340 --> 00:14:14,840
像服务类公司
430
00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:17,960
现在收购armus或其他公司
431
00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:18,929
没错
432
00:14:19,370 --> 00:14:20,470
最终会发生
433
00:14:20,470 --> 00:14:21,039
是
434
00:14:21,039 --> 00:14:23,379
会产生大量并购相关费用
435
00:14:23,379 --> 00:14:23,740
没错
436
00:14:23,740 --> 00:14:28,769
这些费用会以不同方式影响财务项目
437
00:14:28,769 --> 00:14:31,309
有时可能计入管理费用
438
00:14:31,309 --> 00:14:32,210
也可能在其他项目
439
00:14:32,210 --> 00:14:32,860
没错
440
00:14:32,860 --> 00:14:34,639
也可能计入研发费用
441
00:14:34,639 --> 00:14:39,539
短期内会使开支显得激增
442
00:14:39,539 --> 00:14:43,000
并导致短期盈利能力受损
443
00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:43,259
没错
444
00:14:43,259 --> 00:14:45,100
通常会在接下来
445
00:14:45,100 --> 00:14:46,159
大约十二个月
446
00:14:46,159 --> 00:14:46,700
十八个月
447
00:14:46,700 --> 00:14:46,940
两年
448
00:14:46,940 --> 00:14:47,759
四个月对吧
449
00:14:47,759 --> 00:14:49,379
但这会引发短期问题
450
00:14:49,379 --> 00:14:53,720
此外,这些情况下有时会出现大量基于股票的补偿
451
00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:57,159
这些情况下可能会发生股东价值稀释
452
00:14:57,159 --> 00:15:00,279
这些都是你需要考虑的因素
453
00:15:00,279 --> 00:15:01,039
好的
454
00:15:01,039 --> 00:15:05,720
但这些收购带来的美好之处不仅仅是收入增长
455
00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:07,700
因为你收购了一家年收入十亿美元的公司
456
00:15:07,700 --> 00:15:08,919
通常如果你是SaaS公司
457
00:15:08,919 --> 00:15:11,669
你会收购一家快速增长的公司对吧
458
00:15:11,669 --> 00:15:16,129
这家公司远未达到长期潜力的顶峰
459
00:15:16,129 --> 00:15:17,070
但最令人惊叹的是
460
00:15:17,070 --> 00:15:21,590
最令人惊叹的是在收购公司后的两到三年内
461
00:15:21,590 --> 00:15:25,909
你通常能大幅扩展这家公司
462
00:15:25,909 --> 00:15:28,789
像ServiceNow这样的公司拥有大量客户
463
00:15:28,789 --> 00:15:36,818
你可以将新收购的产品服务卖给现有客户群
464
00:15:36,818 --> 00:15:42,068
你的收入能借助收购的新产品服务大幅增长
465
00:15:42,068 --> 00:15:44,828
在短期内
466
00:15:44,828 --> 00:15:46,308
存在很多不确定性
467
00:15:46,308 --> 00:15:47,708
而且开支增加了
468
00:15:47,708 --> 00:15:48,948
还有各种一次性费用等等
469
00:15:48,948 --> 00:15:50,078
等等对吧
470
00:15:50,078 --> 00:15:53,719
但接下来几年会迎来爆发期
471
00:15:53,719 --> 00:15:56,568
短期内是阵痛
472
00:15:56,568 --> 00:15:59,188
接下来几年则是狂欢
473
00:15:59,188 --> 00:16:00,009
好的
474
00:16:00,009 --> 00:16:01,129
希望我解释得够清楚
475
00:16:01,129 --> 00:16:02,190
尽可能简单明了
476
00:16:02,190 --> 00:16:04,190
像ServiceNow这样的公司
477
00:16:04,190 --> 00:16:05,149
像Salesforce这样的公司
478
00:16:05,149 --> 00:16:09,100
它们都有完美记录证明这一点
479
00:16:09,100 --> 00:16:11,159
收购快速增长的公司
480
00:16:11,159 --> 00:16:12,700
将其整合到公司内部
481
00:16:12,700 --> 00:16:14,620
短期内会增加大量开支
482
00:16:14,620 --> 00:16:15,799
但天啊
483
00:16:15,799 --> 00:16:18,639
说说未来几年的收入增长吧
484
00:16:18,639 --> 00:16:20,090
我们收购了股票
485
00:16:20,090 --> 00:16:24,850
实际上很多高管都在自动抛售
486
00:16:24,850 --> 00:16:28,549
你觉得还需要买多少才能摆脱
487
00:16:28,549 --> 00:16:31,849
摆脱投资者心中的熊市预期
488
00:16:31,849 --> 00:16:36,489
我认为熊市观点其实只是软件即服务公司的终值
489
00:16:36,489 --> 00:16:37,668
作为服务类公司
490
00:16:37,668 --> 00:16:39,700
与
491
00:16:39,700 --> 00:16:40,820
仅ServiceNow
492
00:16:40,820 --> 00:16:43,539
任何代表
493
00:16:43,539 --> 00:16:46,879
可能这次财报表现不如我们习惯的那么亮眼
494
00:16:46,879 --> 00:16:47,779
等等
495
00:16:47,779 --> 00:16:50,019
这只是现实情况
496
00:16:50,019 --> 00:16:50,419
你知道的
497
00:16:50,419 --> 00:16:51,639
语言模型
498
00:16:51,639 --> 00:16:53,179
这些都是优秀公司
499
00:16:53,179 --> 00:16:54,840
超大规模科技公司非常出色
500
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,700
语言模型是卓越的公司
501
00:16:56,700 --> 00:16:58,620
我们昨天与gemini达成了一笔交易
502
00:16:58,620 --> 00:17:01,190
我们已与OpenAI和Anthropic达成合作
503
00:17:01,190 --> 00:17:03,710
我们将它们融入创新周期
504
00:17:03,710 --> 00:17:09,190
并整合到我们系统中确保企业AI应用得当
505
00:17:12,849 --> 00:17:14,539
我们已积累
506
00:17:14,539 --> 00:17:16,980
需要二十二年时间构建的数据
507
00:17:16,980 --> 00:17:21,890
正是这个上下文引擎让语言模型真正发挥作用
508
00:17:21,890 --> 00:17:25,150
他们知道这一点但市场可能认为
509
00:17:25,150 --> 00:17:29,009
或许我可以完全用语言模型自行构建一切
510
00:17:29,009 --> 00:17:30,369
这根本不可能
511
00:17:30,369 --> 00:17:36,009
每位CIO和CEO都会告诉你ServiceNow只需我整体支出的几分之一
512
00:17:36,009 --> 00:17:38,609
就能为我完成巨大工作量
513
00:17:38,609 --> 00:17:43,109
为何要用语言模型重建并多花十倍成本
514
00:17:43,109 --> 00:17:45,450
这根本无法比较
515
00:17:45,450 --> 00:17:49,359
但此类比较仍存在直到被证明不同
516
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:51,779
什么能证明不同之处比尔
517
00:17:51,779 --> 00:17:53,079
你总是这么乐观
518
00:17:53,079 --> 00:17:54,960
我今天能感受到这种能量
519
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,500
这种势头正被股价创纪录的暴跌所冲击
520
00:17:59,500 --> 00:18:03,559
RBC称软件市场情绪处于历史低位
521
00:18:03,559 --> 00:18:06,940
这是否改变了市场情绪
522
00:18:08,970 --> 00:18:09,569
你知道的
523
00:18:09,569 --> 00:18:12,630
领导者最强大的能力就是改变观念
524
00:18:12,630 --> 00:18:17,000
最能改变人心的是业绩表现
525
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:21,420
这也是我充满信心重申全年指引的原因
526
00:18:21,420 --> 00:18:24,679
我将在几分钟内面对三万名观众
527
00:18:24,679 --> 00:18:28,459
激发他们执行我们的战略计划
528
00:18:28,459 --> 00:18:33,089
我们的并购将增强这家优秀企业
529
00:18:33,089 --> 00:18:36,789
这是史上最快速成长的 enterprise 软件公司
530
00:18:36,789 --> 00:18:38,509
首个突破十五亿美元营收
531
00:18:38,509 --> 00:18:41,619
将首度达到三十二亿美元
532
00:18:41,619 --> 00:18:45,619
我们期待股东与我们在内华达相聚
533
00:18:45,619 --> 00:18:48,190
几周后在拉斯维加斯
534
00:18:48,190 --> 00:18:48,829
我明白了
535
00:18:48,829 --> 00:18:53,069
或许要解释ServiceNow的中期与长期计划
536
00:18:53,069 --> 00:18:55,369
目标是未来几年将公司规模翻倍
537
00:18:55,369 --> 00:18:56,619
我们充满期待
538
00:18:56,619 --> 00:18:57,740
我们已准备就绪
539
00:18:57,740 --> 00:19:02,140
我必须淡化外界对 enterprise 软件的负面叙事
540
00:19:02,140 --> 00:19:03,509
不仅针对我们
541
00:19:03,509 --> 00:19:08,380
这些大型系统不会被语言模型取代
542
00:19:08,380 --> 00:19:11,099
它们将与大型系统形成强大互补
543
00:19:11,099 --> 00:19:12,579
但不会取代它们
544
00:19:12,579 --> 00:19:16,579
我们在企业领域深耕已久
545
00:19:16,579 --> 00:19:17,960
我深知企业运作之道
546
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:23,769
人们需要保持信心在低迷期专注盈利
547
00:19:23,769 --> 00:19:24,289
就像现在这样
548
00:19:24,289 --> 00:19:25,769
这以前从未发生过
549
00:19:25,769 --> 00:19:27,388
所以好好把握这个机会
550
00:19:27,388 --> 00:19:28,509
好好把握这个机会
551
00:19:28,509 --> 00:19:29,308
他说得对
552
00:19:29,308 --> 00:19:29,749
好的
553
00:19:29,749 --> 00:19:30,568
所以听好了
554
00:19:30,568 --> 00:19:32,029
好的
555
00:19:32,710 --> 00:19:34,430
说到这类公司
556
00:19:34,430 --> 00:19:36,410
没错 你必须理解
557
00:19:36,410 --> 00:19:37,410
你提供数据
558
00:19:37,410 --> 00:19:38,710
持续提交结果
559
00:19:38,710 --> 00:19:41,109
最终空头会消失
560
00:19:41,109 --> 00:19:42,089
举个好例子
561
00:19:42,089 --> 00:19:43,630
现在我们讨论的是
562
00:19:43,630 --> 00:19:44,150
AMD
563
00:19:44,150 --> 00:19:46,130
整个股市最热门的股票之一
564
00:19:46,130 --> 00:19:47,130
看起来你明白
565
00:19:47,130 --> 00:19:48,170
市场大幅下跌
566
00:19:48,170 --> 00:19:50,680
今天这些股票都被重创
567
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:51,140
没错
568
00:19:51,140 --> 00:19:52,599
AMD依然上涨
569
00:19:52,599 --> 00:19:53,920
太惊人了
570
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:55,160
AMD
571
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,079
我们现在在2026年4月
572
00:19:57,079 --> 00:20:03,309
我录这段时是2025年4月 AMD股价不到100美元
573
00:20:03,309 --> 00:20:04,130
没错
574
00:20:04,130 --> 00:20:08,819
我可以带你回顾去年4月美光科技股票
575
00:20:08,819 --> 00:20:13,598
美光股票涨至接近500美元
576
00:20:13,598 --> 00:20:18,329
美光股票我记得当时跌至
577
00:20:18,769 --> 00:20:19,710
70美元
578
00:20:19,710 --> 00:20:22,470
80美元左右对吧
579
00:20:22,829 --> 00:20:24,569
你们持续公布结果
580
00:20:24,569 --> 00:20:26,069
数据没错
581
00:20:26,069 --> 00:20:27,890
人们逐渐理解故事
582
00:20:27,890 --> 00:20:29,569
一切自然解决
583
00:20:29,569 --> 00:20:31,089
这就是ServiceNow该做的事
584
00:20:31,089 --> 00:20:31,809
这也是Salesforce
585
00:20:31,809 --> 00:20:33,210
所有这些SaaS公司
586
00:20:33,210 --> 00:20:34,089
如果它们是股票
587
00:20:34,089 --> 00:20:35,809
如果想摆脱困境
588
00:20:35,809 --> 00:20:37,369
持续交出数据
589
00:20:37,369 --> 00:20:38,949
最终空头论消亡
590
00:20:38,949 --> 00:20:40,229
最终空头会说
591
00:20:40,229 --> 00:20:41,288
你知道像
592
00:20:41,288 --> 00:20:41,749
你知道
593
00:20:41,749 --> 00:20:42,828
我们讨论这个很久了
594
00:20:42,828 --> 00:20:44,189
他们持续交出数据
595
00:20:44,189 --> 00:20:45,220
他们就放弃
596
00:20:45,220 --> 00:20:47,319
这就是需要注意的
597
00:20:47,319 --> 00:20:47,960
好的
598
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,420
我们继续深入探讨软件行业的这一轮变化
599
00:20:52,420 --> 00:20:56,640
事实上市场一度显得非常反软件行业
600
00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,299
你认为这种情况正在好转吗
601
00:20:59,299 --> 00:21:03,869
尽管市场在这个领域仍保持谨慎选择
602
00:21:03,869 --> 00:21:05,410
多么壮观的背景
603
00:21:05,410 --> 00:21:06,109
新加坡
604
00:21:06,109 --> 00:21:08,500
我太喜欢了,太美了
605
00:21:09,059 --> 00:21:09,900
呃 不
606
00:21:09,900 --> 00:21:11,380
我认为情况并未好转
607
00:21:11,380 --> 00:21:14,279
看看IBM和服务现在财报
608
00:21:14,279 --> 00:21:15,388
今晚
609
00:21:15,388 --> 00:21:18,229
你看到资金持续流出这些股票
610
00:21:18,229 --> 00:21:22,589
所以现在我们称之为软件行业的最大担忧
611
00:21:22,589 --> 00:21:24,888
存在十重担忧
612
00:21:24,888 --> 00:21:31,969
但我们坚信AI基础设施领域充满确定性
613
00:21:31,969 --> 00:21:35,819
从内存到实体数据中心
614
00:21:35,819 --> 00:21:38,869
再到半导体和能源
615
00:21:38,869 --> 00:21:41,089
这才是确定性领域
616
00:21:41,089 --> 00:21:44,400
我们认为目前
617
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:50,519
投资者没有充分理由重返软件板块
618
00:21:50,519 --> 00:21:53,160
除了股价暴跌
619
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:54,589
估值变得更具吸引力
620
00:21:54,589 --> 00:21:56,690
但增长拐点尚未出现
621
00:21:56,690 --> 00:21:59,369
我们可能看到部分公司
622
00:21:59,369 --> 00:22:00,029
你知道的
623
00:22:00,029 --> 00:22:01,470
利润率停滞
624
00:22:01,470 --> 00:22:02,710
利润率下降
625
00:22:02,710 --> 00:22:06,950
在准备AI转型时收入增长持续放缓
626
00:22:06,950 --> 00:22:09,730
所有关注点都在AI基础设施
627
00:22:09,730 --> 00:22:12,799
目前我的持仓完全聚焦于此
628
00:22:12,799 --> 00:22:14,599
我很幸运能覆盖超大规模云服务商
629
00:22:14,599 --> 00:22:16,500
因此我认为微软
630
00:22:16,500 --> 00:22:16,859
亚马逊
631
00:22:16,859 --> 00:22:18,859
谷歌处于绝佳位置
632
00:22:18,859 --> 00:22:22,470
Core Weave则是我们特别看好的案例
633
00:22:22,470 --> 00:22:25,650
当投资者重返软件板块时
634
00:22:25,650 --> 00:22:27,750
他们会极其谨慎选择
635
00:22:27,750 --> 00:22:29,349
不会买入整个板块
636
00:22:29,349 --> 00:22:30,089
只会选择
637
00:22:30,089 --> 00:22:30,630
你知道的
638
00:22:30,630 --> 00:22:33,230
该板块的小部分企业
639
00:22:33,230 --> 00:22:36,509
市场情绪依然极度悲观
640
00:22:36,509 --> 00:22:43,259
当AI基础设施整体出现积极变化时
641
00:22:44,299 --> 00:22:46,559
无需改变当前判断
642
00:22:46,559 --> 00:22:49,339
软件行业正处于季节性低迷期
643
00:22:49,339 --> 00:22:52,759
许多公司需要重置战略
644
00:22:52,759 --> 00:22:55,440
抓住AI投资机遇
645
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:57,279
听着
646
00:22:57,279 --> 00:23:01,609
何时是买入股票的最佳时机
647
00:23:01,609 --> 00:23:05,130
当你热爱某个公司或行业时
648
00:23:05,130 --> 00:23:07,430
什么时候是买入的最佳时机
649
00:23:09,390 --> 00:23:11,170
大家都看空这只股票
650
00:23:11,170 --> 00:23:12,849
那永远是最好的时机
651
00:23:12,849 --> 00:23:14,509
什么时候是买入股市的最佳时机
652
00:23:14,509 --> 00:23:17,130
当所有人都看空时
653
00:23:17,130 --> 00:23:18,410
那永远是最好的时机
654
00:23:19,450 --> 00:23:20,529
所以就像
655
00:23:20,529 --> 00:23:21,690
你知道的
656
00:23:21,690 --> 00:23:24,829
我认为这里存在巨大的机会
657
00:23:24,829 --> 00:23:25,450
你知道的
658
00:23:25,450 --> 00:23:28,410
许多这类SaaS公司比如ServiceNow和Salesforce
659
00:23:28,410 --> 00:23:29,250
对啊
660
00:23:29,250 --> 00:23:33,170
当前的市场情绪比以往任何时候都更差
661
00:23:33,170 --> 00:23:34,910
可能会变得更糟
662
00:23:34,910 --> 00:23:36,890
接下来几周可能会变得更糟
663
00:23:36,890 --> 00:23:37,490
接下来几个月
664
00:23:37,490 --> 00:23:39,069
但老天啊
665
00:23:39,549 --> 00:23:40,109
你知道的
666
00:23:40,109 --> 00:23:41,930
如果你相信这些公司
667
00:23:41,930 --> 00:23:43,170
这就是最佳买入时机
668
00:23:43,170 --> 00:23:44,750
当所有人都看空时
669
00:23:44,750 --> 00:23:46,779
当你找不到人
670
00:23:46,779 --> 00:23:47,900
鼓起勇气说
671
00:23:47,900 --> 00:23:48,940
这是一个绝佳机会
672
00:23:48,940 --> 00:23:49,259
是的
673
00:23:49,259 --> 00:23:51,119
季节性因素尚未变化
674
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,420
从目前来看还没有变化
675
00:23:53,420 --> 00:23:53,980
布莱恩
676
00:23:53,980 --> 00:23:56,619
什么会改变这种状况
677
00:23:56,619 --> 00:23:57,119
是的
678
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,180
我认为许多人会同意
679
00:23:59,180 --> 00:24:02,480
即使软件领域出现复苏
680
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,839
人们会变得非常挑剔
681
00:24:04,839 --> 00:24:08,079
并给出一些相关公司名称
682
00:24:08,079 --> 00:24:11,509
真正让市场醒悟的因素是什么
683
00:24:11,509 --> 00:24:15,549
推动软件行业复苏的动力
684
00:24:15,549 --> 00:24:15,750
我说
685
00:24:15,750 --> 00:24:18,930
你还认为需要考虑这个吗
686
00:24:18,930 --> 00:24:19,509
嗯
687
00:24:19,509 --> 00:24:22,630
我们仍需考虑估值理由
688
00:24:22,630 --> 00:24:26,150
现有企业的粘性优势
689
00:24:27,809 --> 00:24:30,910
软件行业的复苏将由
690
00:24:30,910 --> 00:24:33,650
首先由Anthropic和OpenAI上市驱动
691
00:24:33,650 --> 00:24:34,990
首要担忧
692
00:24:34,990 --> 00:24:40,109
在与投资者会面时,Anthropic和OpenAI是否会摧毁软件行业
693
00:24:40,109 --> 00:24:41,630
第二大因素是CapEx
694
00:24:41,630 --> 00:24:45,910
整个行业7000亿美元的资本支出
695
00:24:45,910 --> 00:24:48,109
超大规模企业将
696
00:24:48,109 --> 00:24:51,130
你知道基本上超过
697
00:24:51,130 --> 00:24:51,730
你知道确实
698
00:24:51,730 --> 00:24:54,849
未来几年将超过一万亿
699
00:24:54,849 --> 00:24:56,490
为什么要买软件呢
700
00:24:56,490 --> 00:24:57,470
你会买内存
701
00:24:57,470 --> 00:24:59,190
你会买硬盘驱动器
702
00:24:59,190 --> 00:25:00,729
你会购买基础设施
703
00:25:00,729 --> 00:25:01,588
购买房地产
704
00:25:01,588 --> 00:25:03,028
你会购买所有需要的东西
705
00:25:03,028 --> 00:25:07,410
你可以通过这些资源进入AI基础设施领域
706
00:25:07,410 --> 00:25:07,730
比如
707
00:25:07,730 --> 00:25:09,470
为什么要浪费时间在价值
708
00:25:09,470 --> 00:25:10,430
正如我所说的
709
00:25:10,430 --> 00:25:11,299
我是艺术
710
00:25:11,299 --> 00:25:12,920
我在做艺术品经销商生意
711
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,199
软件就像被挂在墙上
712
00:25:15,199 --> 00:25:16,818
当建筑建成时
713
00:25:16,818 --> 00:25:19,239
AI所需的建筑甚至还没建成
714
00:25:19,239 --> 00:25:21,579
所以你想拥有工具和铲子
715
00:25:21,579 --> 00:25:26,430
因此我认为现在存在OpenAI和Anthropic的问题
716
00:25:26,430 --> 00:25:27,849
还有资本支出问题
717
00:25:27,849 --> 00:25:32,769
我70%的软件覆盖范围是增长放缓
718
00:25:32,769 --> 00:25:34,130
没有拐点出现
719
00:25:34,130 --> 00:25:35,210
以AMD为例
720
00:25:35,210 --> 00:25:35,910
他们指引了三
721
00:25:35,910 --> 00:25:38,309
未来三年或四年的5%增长
722
00:25:38,309 --> 00:25:41,339
Agger最多增长10%
723
00:25:41,339 --> 00:25:43,059
所以是三倍增长
724
00:25:43,059 --> 00:25:44,559
AMD的增长率
725
00:25:44,559 --> 00:25:47,308
看看Vidious的数据中心业务
726
00:25:47,308 --> 00:25:48,509
随便选个数字
727
00:25:48,509 --> 00:25:51,240
所有这些数字都在发生巨大拐点
728
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,339
能源领域拐点显著
729
00:25:53,339 --> 00:25:54,819
软件领域没有拐点
730
00:25:54,819 --> 00:25:56,039
正在放缓
731
00:25:56,039 --> 00:25:58,339
为什么要买正在放缓的行业
732
00:25:58,339 --> 00:26:02,619
而你可以持有90%的其他正在拐点的科技领域
733
00:26:02,619 --> 00:26:07,500
因此我认为现在不是软件不好
734
00:26:07,500 --> 00:26:11,009
而是有更好的机会
735
00:26:11,009 --> 00:26:12,670
正在这些拐点领域发生
736
00:26:12,670 --> 00:26:16,519
所有即将迎来
737
00:26:16,519 --> 00:26:17,599
AI的各类别
738
00:26:17,599 --> 00:26:18,420
软件将会
739
00:26:18,420 --> 00:26:19,990
正如我们所说处于后期阶段
740
00:26:19,990 --> 00:26:23,569
我们认同Jensen在NVIDIA的观点
741
00:26:23,569 --> 00:26:27,539
认为软件不会受益是不合逻辑的
742
00:26:27,539 --> 00:26:28,460
它会受益
743
00:26:28,460 --> 00:26:29,839
但尚未显现
744
00:26:29,839 --> 00:26:31,630
也没有拐点出现
745
00:26:31,630 --> 00:26:33,210
这就是数据
746
00:26:33,210 --> 00:26:34,730
大家都在高谈阔论
747
00:26:34,730 --> 00:26:36,869
但我的领域尚未看到
748
00:26:36,869 --> 00:26:39,329
因此它让投资者远离我的行业
749
00:26:39,329 --> 00:26:41,170
让投资者留在其他领域
750
00:26:41,170 --> 00:26:45,749
而我认为这就是我们对软件行业持减持的观点
751
00:26:45,749 --> 00:26:49,069
并对科技其他领域持增持看法
752
00:26:49,069 --> 00:26:51,089
并将逐步轮动回流
753
00:26:51,089 --> 00:26:52,289
但我们仍需观察
754
00:26:52,289 --> 00:26:53,549
你知道的
755
00:26:53,549 --> 00:26:55,409
五件事会发生
756
00:26:55,409 --> 00:26:57,169
并非之前单一事件
757
00:26:57,169 --> 00:26:58,989
你将看到资金回流
758
00:26:58,989 --> 00:27:00,808
你甚至看到盘后交易
759
00:27:00,808 --> 00:27:01,368
大幅抛售
760
00:27:01,368 --> 00:27:02,599
IBM股价暴跌
761
00:27:02,599 --> 00:27:04,480
我会投身软件业务
762
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:05,779
每隔一段时间
763
00:27:05,779 --> 00:27:07,220
错过耳语传闻
764
00:27:07,220 --> 00:27:09,750
因此我们看到类似情况
765
00:27:10,109 --> 00:27:15,910
正如两家顶级科技公司今晚所言
766
00:27:17,319 --> 00:27:19,740
因此投资者需区分策略
767
00:27:19,740 --> 00:27:21,000
你愿聚焦短期
768
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,279
还是长期布局
769
00:27:22,279 --> 00:27:26,460
没错,他谈论的多是短期情绪
770
00:27:26,490 --> 00:27:29,289
没错,这回归到市场情绪
771
00:27:29,289 --> 00:27:31,069
当前市场情绪有多低迷
772
00:27:31,069 --> 00:27:33,240
情绪波动频繁
773
00:27:33,319 --> 00:27:34,160
所以
774
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,480
你知道三个月前
775
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,279
股市情绪有多差
776
00:27:38,279 --> 00:27:38,559
哦
777
00:27:38,559 --> 00:27:40,519
天啊当时就是这样
778
00:27:40,519 --> 00:27:45,240
而昨日股市创历史新高
779
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:46,740
情绪随时变化
780
00:27:46,740 --> 00:27:48,500
股市情绪波动
781
00:27:48,500 --> 00:27:50,079
各板块情绪变动
782
00:27:50,079 --> 00:27:55,799
现在所有人都对SaaS极度看空
783
00:27:55,799 --> 00:27:58,329
十二个月后可能转为中性
784
00:27:58,329 --> 00:28:00,230
再过一年可能转为看涨
785
00:28:00,230 --> 00:28:00,589
对
786
00:28:00,589 --> 00:28:01,029
你知道的
787
00:28:01,029 --> 00:28:05,869
股价往往在情绪回暖前启动
788
00:28:05,869 --> 00:28:07,950
与股市无异
789
00:28:07,950 --> 00:28:10,009
股价提前于情绪回暖
790
00:28:10,009 --> 00:28:12,730
股市刚创历史新高
791
00:28:12,730 --> 00:28:14,150
但情绪并未改善
792
00:28:14,150 --> 00:28:16,410
最新AI投资者数据仍显示
793
00:28:16,410 --> 00:28:18,329
我昨日查看主频道
794
00:28:18,329 --> 00:28:19,210
我们当时
795
00:28:19,210 --> 00:28:19,569
我认为
796
00:28:19,569 --> 00:28:19,890
呃
797
00:28:19,890 --> 00:28:22,750
仅3.4%的投资者看空股市
798
00:28:22,750 --> 00:28:24,009
接下来你就会知道
799
00:28:24,009 --> 00:28:25,069
六个月
800
00:28:25,069 --> 00:28:26,230
所以你知道
801
00:28:26,230 --> 00:28:29,039
情绪促使他四处活动
802
00:28:29,039 --> 00:28:29,640
是的
803
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:30,160
我的意思是
804
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,140
攀越十面忧虑之墙
805
00:28:32,140 --> 00:28:34,640
比单面墙难得多
806
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:42,059
但听起来你仍在等待软件行业触底
807
00:28:42,059 --> 00:28:46,529
当我们走出那个阶段
808
00:28:46,529 --> 00:28:48,430
你在笔记中显得看涨
809
00:28:48,430 --> 00:28:50,289
你在谈论微软
810
00:28:50,289 --> 00:28:50,910
亚马逊
811
00:28:50,910 --> 00:28:52,210
谷歌和核心
812
00:28:52,210 --> 00:28:52,769
Weave
813
00:28:52,769 --> 00:28:56,789
如何看待软件股的正确心态
814
00:28:56,789 --> 00:29:01,730
你为何要列出这些看涨标的
815
00:29:02,660 --> 00:29:03,160
是的
816
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,339
在软件领域我们已行动
817
00:29:05,339 --> 00:29:06,920
我们超配了基建板块
818
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:08,140
想想Cord
819
00:29:08,140 --> 00:29:12,619
我们正在为Meta、微软、谷歌搭建基建
820
00:29:12,619 --> 00:29:14,480
他们无法独自完成
821
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,420
核心Weave在协助建设
822
00:29:16,420 --> 00:29:18,220
想想超大规模数据中心
823
00:29:18,220 --> 00:29:19,730
亚马逊、微软、谷歌
824
00:29:19,730 --> 00:29:20,930
它们处于绝佳位置
825
00:29:20,930 --> 00:29:21,549
不管怎样
826
00:29:21,549 --> 00:29:23,210
无论AI应用出现在何处
827
00:29:23,210 --> 00:29:26,599
都需要基础设施生存运转
828
00:29:26,599 --> 00:29:29,799
这些公司处境极佳
829
00:29:29,799 --> 00:29:31,759
以Snowflake为例
830
00:29:31,759 --> 00:29:37,089
需要分析数据并做出智能决策
831
00:29:37,089 --> 00:29:39,230
我们认为Snowflake前景良好
832
00:29:39,230 --> 00:29:41,469
基础设施软件公司
833
00:29:41,469 --> 00:29:43,828
在我看来是首要领域
834
00:29:43,828 --> 00:29:47,068
应更多配置资金
835
00:29:47,068 --> 00:29:49,349
第二是网络安全
836
00:29:49,349 --> 00:29:51,529
假设投资者正确
837
00:29:51,529 --> 00:29:52,490
是OpenAI
838
00:29:52,490 --> 00:29:54,569
五年后的新世界
839
00:29:54,569 --> 00:29:55,949
这两家公司
840
00:29:55,949 --> 00:29:57,169
你知道的
841
00:29:57,169 --> 00:29:59,328
加上全球其他企业
842
00:29:59,328 --> 00:30:02,089
假设全球有四到五家AI巨头
843
00:30:02,089 --> 00:30:03,130
它们不会
844
00:30:03,130 --> 00:30:04,930
不会依赖它们做网络安全
845
00:30:04,930 --> 00:30:08,569
会依赖其他网络安全
846
00:30:08,569 --> 00:30:10,529
为什么不呢
847
00:30:10,529 --> 00:30:11,150
哦不
848
00:30:11,150 --> 00:30:12,750
他们可以做任何事情
849
00:30:12,750 --> 00:30:16,308
我能做一切克隆能做到的一切
850
00:30:16,308 --> 00:30:16,989
呃
851
00:30:16,989 --> 00:30:17,729
你知道吉姆
852
00:30:17,729 --> 00:30:18,568
而我可以做一切
853
00:30:18,568 --> 00:30:19,638
为什么不行
854
00:30:19,638 --> 00:30:20,318
我喜欢
855
00:30:20,318 --> 00:30:20,598
你知道的
856
00:30:20,598 --> 00:30:22,338
如果我们想把它带到偏执的地步
857
00:30:22,338 --> 00:30:24,529
就像我们可以直接相信它能做一切
858
00:30:24,529 --> 00:30:25,349
世界上的一切
859
00:30:25,349 --> 00:30:26,049
天啊
860
00:30:26,049 --> 00:30:29,789
没错,实际上他们用人类中心主义展示了一些东西
861
00:30:29,789 --> 00:30:30,589
至少在
862
00:30:30,589 --> 00:30:31,130
你知道的
863
00:30:31,130 --> 00:30:34,630
在安全和发现漏洞等方面展现出惊人的能力
864
00:30:34,630 --> 00:30:35,539
所以你知道
865
00:30:35,539 --> 00:30:38,279
如果我们假设它们能真正做任何事情
866
00:30:38,279 --> 00:30:40,759
然后做得更好且更便宜
867
00:30:40,759 --> 00:30:42,240
如果你想带入那些领域
868
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:43,339
就像全盘接受
869
00:30:43,339 --> 00:30:44,380
然后你知道
870
00:30:44,380 --> 00:30:45,299
接下来这里
871
00:30:45,299 --> 00:30:45,799
元
872
00:30:45,799 --> 00:30:51,829
这些超大规模公司投入的巨额资本支出
873
00:30:51,829 --> 00:30:53,539
这对元意味着什么
874
00:30:53,539 --> 00:30:53,880
是的
875
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,220
你们总结得太到位了
876
00:30:55,220 --> 00:31:00,079
优先投资基础设施而非人力成本
877
00:31:00,079 --> 00:31:01,839
这一点已被报道
878
00:31:01,839 --> 00:31:04,240
因此股票可能出现小幅回调
879
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:05,440
新闻的市场反应
880
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,259
当头条新闻出现时
881
00:31:07,259 --> 00:31:08,660
我们下跌了2.5%
882
00:31:08,660 --> 00:31:11,259
算法交易加剧了这些跌幅
883
00:31:11,259 --> 00:31:13,190
现在又下跌了2.5%
884
00:31:13,190 --> 00:31:14,630
裁员效果显著
885
00:31:14,630 --> 00:31:15,910
五月二十日
886
00:31:15,910 --> 00:31:16,589
你知道的
887
00:31:16,589 --> 00:31:18,450
这里存在会计因素
888
00:31:18,450 --> 00:31:22,808
因为元需要支付被裁员工
889
00:31:22,808 --> 00:31:25,189
被裁人员十六周的遣散费
890
00:31:25,189 --> 00:31:26,849
生效日期为五月二十日
891
00:31:26,849 --> 00:31:27,490
嗯
892
00:31:27,490 --> 00:31:28,349
但请记住
893
00:31:28,349 --> 00:31:28,690
你知道的
894
00:31:28,690 --> 00:31:32,829
政治层面的故事是扎克伯格与美国总统同台
895
00:31:32,829 --> 00:31:33,130
说道
896
00:31:33,130 --> 00:31:33,589
哦
897
00:31:33,589 --> 00:31:37,990
我将在美国内投资六百亿美元
898
00:31:38,150 --> 00:31:42,670
在三年内重新振兴国家的AI基础设施
899
00:31:42,670 --> 00:31:46,319
这就是故事的政治层面
900
00:31:46,319 --> 00:31:51,039
但今年他们的资本支出承诺规模巨大
901
00:31:52,059 --> 00:31:55,619
当然乔也提到了其他超大规模公司
902
00:31:55,619 --> 00:31:56,819
不仅仅是Meta
903
00:31:56,819 --> 00:31:58,039
我们在这个方面有新消息
904
00:31:58,039 --> 00:31:58,500
呃
905
00:31:58,500 --> 00:31:58,740
今天
906
00:31:58,740 --> 00:32:00,430
正如我们所知,此前有报道
907
00:32:00,430 --> 00:32:03,789
微软正在向约7%的员工提供买断
908
00:32:03,789 --> 00:32:05,929
这和这里的情况是否完全相同
909
00:32:05,929 --> 00:32:08,888
或者Meta是否存在特殊考量
910
00:32:08,888 --> 00:32:09,429
特别是
911
00:32:09,429 --> 00:32:09,749
嗯
912
00:32:09,749 --> 00:32:13,240
微软采取的方式存在特殊性
913
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,039
向7%的员工提供买断方案
914
00:32:16,039 --> 00:32:16,799
不同的数字
915
00:32:16,799 --> 00:32:21,059
同时采用不同机制推动自愿退休
916
00:32:21,059 --> 00:32:21,680
呃
917
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:23,319
操作方式
918
00:32:23,319 --> 00:32:25,630
通过这种方式长期缩减人员
919
00:32:25,630 --> 00:32:26,170
嗯
920
00:32:26,170 --> 00:32:30,150
但仍在谈论美国数千名员工
921
00:32:30,150 --> 00:32:31,710
关于这一报道
922
00:32:31,710 --> 00:32:34,180
据彭博社消息
923
00:32:34,180 --> 00:32:36,539
微软有12.5万名员工
924
00:32:36,539 --> 00:32:37,400
再次
925
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:38,220
相似规模
926
00:32:38,220 --> 00:32:41,150
约8000至9000名员工
927
00:32:41,150 --> 00:32:41,690
嗯
928
00:32:41,690 --> 00:32:44,769
微软的资本支出承诺同样巨大
929
00:32:44,769 --> 00:32:47,430
而当我们谈论这一点时
930
00:32:47,430 --> 00:32:50,529
当我们提到资本支出时
931
00:32:50,529 --> 00:32:53,210
指的是前期
932
00:32:53,210 --> 00:33:01,119
为采购最新芯片和建设数据中心基础设施投入的费用承诺,用于开发或运行
933
00:33:01,119 --> 00:33:04,660
AI 实际上就那么简单
934
00:33:04,660 --> 00:33:09,369
长期来看的故事是
935
00:33:09,369 --> 00:33:11,609
投资者真的在为此欢呼吗
936
00:33:11,609 --> 00:33:12,809
但你们也知道
937
00:33:12,809 --> 00:33:14,940
华尔街也喜欢双面下注
938
00:33:14,940 --> 00:33:16,579
他们希望看到
939
00:33:16,579 --> 00:33:18,440
相反方向的举措
940
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:19,880
财务纪律性
941
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:23,059
通常通过裁员体现
942
00:33:23,059 --> 00:33:23,440
啊
943
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:24,539
这应该叫妥协
944
00:33:24,539 --> 00:33:27,140
这对士气意味着什么
945
00:33:27,140 --> 00:33:31,750
在构建下一次工业革命的公司
946
00:33:31,750 --> 00:33:32,430
天啊
947
00:33:32,430 --> 00:33:33,200
你们明白的
948
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:34,599
自从元宇宙故事破裂后
949
00:33:34,599 --> 00:33:37,099
我还没机会与公司内任何人交谈
950
00:33:37,099 --> 00:33:37,599
嗯
951
00:33:37,599 --> 00:33:41,430
我知道路透社报道了Meta裁员即将来临
952
00:33:41,430 --> 00:33:41,930
基于
953
00:33:41,930 --> 00:33:44,079
现在已确认的信息相当准确
954
00:33:44,079 --> 00:33:47,039
另一种角度看这是硅谷的故事
955
00:33:47,039 --> 00:33:51,480
当大规模裁员或自愿离职发生时
956
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:52,409
退休潮
957
00:33:52,409 --> 00:33:57,489
会造就一批拥有时间与经验的人
958
00:33:57,489 --> 00:33:59,859
这些人往往创立新公司
959
00:33:59,859 --> 00:34:01,319
或投资其他企业
960
00:34:01,319 --> 00:34:04,779
这就是我看待这个故事的方式
961
00:34:04,779 --> 00:34:06,500
但士气也可能变得困难
962
00:34:06,500 --> 00:34:09,059
在首席人事官的备忘录中
963
00:34:09,059 --> 00:34:09,699
你知道的
964
00:34:09,699 --> 00:34:12,699
显然大家都不愿听到这样的消息
965
00:34:12,699 --> 00:34:13,300
但
966
00:34:13,300 --> 00:34:13,840
嗯
967
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:14,300
是的
968
00:34:14,300 --> 00:34:15,980
我看到积极的一面
969
00:34:15,980 --> 00:34:18,019
许多人也是如此
970
00:34:18,019 --> 00:34:19,280
这真的很令人着迷
971
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:19,739
你知道的
972
00:34:19,739 --> 00:34:21,219
想想硅谷
973
00:34:21,219 --> 00:34:25,079
想想软件工程师
974
00:34:25,079 --> 00:34:25,619
没错
975
00:34:25,619 --> 00:34:26,760
听着
976
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:27,778
这些人曾经历一段辉煌期
977
00:34:27,778 --> 00:34:29,829
他们确实经历过高速发展
978
00:34:29,829 --> 00:34:30,989
真的需要全力冲刺
979
00:34:30,989 --> 00:34:31,188
比如
980
00:34:31,188 --> 00:34:32,268
你身处软件工程领域
981
00:34:32,268 --> 00:34:34,009
曾有一段时间快速发展
982
00:34:34,009 --> 00:34:36,630
能几乎要求任何薪资
983
00:34:36,630 --> 00:34:37,130
嗯
984
00:34:37,130 --> 00:34:38,550
薪资高得离谱
985
00:34:38,550 --> 00:34:39,230
奖金
986
00:34:39,230 --> 00:34:39,980
你知道的
987
00:34:39,980 --> 00:34:42,380
总薪酬包高得惊人
988
00:34:42,380 --> 00:34:42,900
这些
989
00:34:42,900 --> 00:34:43,380
你知道的
990
00:34:43,380 --> 00:34:44,320
基于股票的薪酬
991
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:45,300
你获得的
992
00:34:45,300 --> 00:34:48,119
确实享受了全盛时期
993
00:34:48,119 --> 00:34:50,559
直到2022年
994
00:34:50,559 --> 00:34:52,389
你确实有过一段辉煌期
995
00:34:52,389 --> 00:34:54,449
但自从2022年之后
996
00:34:54,449 --> 00:34:56,730
发生了末日般的事件
997
00:34:56,730 --> 00:34:58,690
Meta股价暴跌超70%
998
00:34:58,690 --> 00:34:59,409
就像你知道的
999
00:34:59,409 --> 00:35:01,769
2022年科技领域的一切都被彻底颠覆了
1000
00:35:01,769 --> 00:35:03,670
没错,那已经是终点了
1001
00:35:04,030 --> 00:35:04,949
那就是关键转折点
1002
00:35:04,949 --> 00:35:07,438
于是事情开始变得越来越难
1003
00:35:07,438 --> 00:35:09,539
你逐渐变成了普通商品
1004
00:35:09,539 --> 00:35:11,438
我认为这种情况可能会持续多年
1005
00:35:11,438 --> 00:35:12,239
在未来的发展中
1006
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:12,739
没错
1007
00:35:12,739 --> 00:35:15,400
作为软件工程师
1008
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:16,119
你知道的
1009
00:35:16,119 --> 00:35:17,320
或者这个行业中的任何事物
1010
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,380
你只会随着时间慢慢被商品化
1011
00:35:20,380 --> 00:35:23,639
没错,这就是现实
1012
00:35:25,750 --> 00:35:27,570
周期与员工的命运同步
1013
00:35:27,570 --> 00:35:28,130
不过
1014
00:35:28,130 --> 00:35:33,438
我要说的就是,在北达科他州
1015
00:35:33,438 --> 00:35:36,018
他们只需要有脉搏的人去那里工作
1016
00:35:36,018 --> 00:35:37,478
去开采石油
1017
00:35:37,478 --> 00:35:40,519
你可以轻松赚到六位数甚至更多
1018
00:35:40,519 --> 00:35:42,059
六位数收入没错
1019
00:35:42,059 --> 00:35:45,719
后来情况逐渐稳定下来
1020
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:47,260
工资水平也回归正常
1021
00:35:47,260 --> 00:35:50,619
所以那时你并不掌握太多话语权
1022
00:35:50,619 --> 00:35:52,820
你可以将这种状态延续到整个
1023
00:35:52,820 --> 00:35:53,340
你知道的
1024
00:35:53,340 --> 00:35:54,440
过去一百多年
1025
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:55,000
至少
1026
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:58,320
看看一波又一波的浪潮
1027
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:00,719
你能暂时维持优势一段时间
1028
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:07,398
但随着时间推移,岗位逐渐消失,工资被商品化
1029
00:36:07,398 --> 00:36:08,760
嗯
1030
00:36:09,039 --> 00:36:10,280
这就是现实情况
1031
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:11,119
我不知道还能说什么
1032
00:36:11,119 --> 00:36:12,039
这就是现状
1033
00:36:12,039 --> 00:36:15,320
各行各业都在经历这个过程
1034
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:15,719
我说
1035
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:17,469
我想过去某个时期
1036
00:36:17,469 --> 00:36:20,369
很久很久以前
1037
00:36:20,369 --> 00:36:22,449
你知道当时当超市收银员就能赚很多钱
1038
00:36:22,449 --> 00:36:24,929
没错,而在
1039
00:36:24,929 --> 00:36:26,190
右嗯
1040
00:36:26,190 --> 00:36:26,789
你知道的
1041
00:36:26,789 --> 00:36:28,469
最近几十年
1042
00:36:28,469 --> 00:36:30,269
这属于非常基础的岗位
1043
00:36:30,269 --> 00:36:32,320
所以
1044
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:33,199
这就是现实
1045
00:36:33,199 --> 00:36:33,480
所以
1046
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:33,840
总之
1047
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,300
好了各位,感谢大家一如既往的支持
1048
00:36:35,300 --> 00:36:36,500
非常感谢大家的到来
1049
00:36:36,500 --> 00:36:37,500
说到元宇宙
1050
00:36:37,500 --> 00:36:38,579
大家当然都知道这是个很棒的公司
1051
00:36:38,579 --> 00:36:39,199
长期来看
1052
00:36:39,199 --> 00:36:39,840
其实只是
1053
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:40,179
你知道的
1054
00:36:40,179 --> 00:36:41,820
我觉得就像很多科技股一样
1055
00:36:41,820 --> 00:36:42,920
它们处境艰难
1056
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:44,980
现在的科技股行情一团糟
1057
00:36:44,980 --> 00:36:46,159
这就是底线
1058
00:36:46,159 --> 00:36:47,568
我们SaaS行业一团乱
1059
00:36:47,568 --> 00:36:49,148
我们必须挑战大公司
1060
00:36:49,148 --> 00:36:49,648
没错
1061
00:36:49,648 --> 00:36:50,849
它们能抓住势头
1062
00:36:50,849 --> 00:36:51,809
Meta、亚马逊
1063
00:36:51,809 --> 00:36:52,668
谷歌这些公司
1064
00:36:52,668 --> 00:36:53,688
它们能抓住势头
1065
00:36:53,688 --> 00:36:54,809
但随后又变得混乱
1066
00:36:54,809 --> 00:36:56,750
人们开始质疑啊
1067
00:36:56,750 --> 00:36:57,650
就是这样对吧
1068
00:36:57,650 --> 00:37:00,429
英伟达过去一年左右一直很混乱
1069
00:37:00,429 --> 00:37:02,809
每次你开始对数据感到兴奋
1070
00:37:02,809 --> 00:37:03,909
人们就开始谈论
1071
00:37:03,909 --> 00:37:05,690
或许数据会有所回落
1072
00:37:05,690 --> 00:37:07,010
微软一直是热门标的
1073
00:37:07,010 --> 00:37:09,190
但这一趋势也开始失去动力
1074
00:37:09,190 --> 00:37:10,510
至少在我看来
1075
00:37:10,510 --> 00:37:12,659
因为现在人们开始质疑
1076
00:37:12,659 --> 00:37:13,059
是的
1077
00:37:13,059 --> 00:37:14,820
我们知道今年的数据会非常惊人
1078
00:37:14,820 --> 00:37:15,780
明年会更出色
1079
00:37:15,780 --> 00:37:18,920
但之后或许数据会下降
1080
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,690
当增长开始停滞时
1081
00:37:21,690 --> 00:37:23,489
利润率也会受冲击
1082
00:37:23,489 --> 00:37:25,849
整体科技股行情混乱
1083
00:37:25,849 --> 00:37:28,400
现在看看像Palantir这样的股票
1084
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,260
估值大幅下跌
1085
00:37:30,260 --> 00:37:32,280
我们查看今日私募集团的两年期市盈率
1086
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:33,719
我认为已降至约五十左右
1087
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:35,179
这还不算太糟
1088
00:37:35,179 --> 00:37:39,769
但在这种市场环境下,人们是否愿意支付50倍以上的两年期市盈率
1089
00:37:39,769 --> 00:37:40,869
这仍存疑
1090
00:37:40,869 --> 00:37:41,349
没错
1091
00:37:41,349 --> 00:37:45,378
所以整个市场充斥着混乱
1092
00:37:45,378 --> 00:37:46,298
看看像苹果这样的公司
1093
00:37:46,298 --> 00:37:47,539
苹果也可能面临同样的问题
1094
00:37:47,539 --> 00:37:48,418
它们在
1095
00:37:48,418 --> 00:37:48,659
AI领域
1096
00:37:48,659 --> 00:37:49,159
投入不大
1097
00:37:49,159 --> 00:37:50,639
这确实很明智
1098
00:37:50,639 --> 00:37:53,980
但归根结底,人们会认为他们被抛在了后面
1099
00:37:53,980 --> 00:37:55,710
所以情况一团糟
1100
00:37:55,710 --> 00:37:56,409
网飞
1101
00:37:56,409 --> 00:37:58,409
网飞在这里看起来相当有吸引力
1102
00:37:58,409 --> 00:37:59,369
但人们会说
1103
00:37:59,369 --> 00:38:00,150
只是永远
1104
00:38:00,150 --> 00:38:04,590
科技领域的一切似乎都有某种看空因素
1105
00:38:04,590 --> 00:38:06,170
某种负面情绪
1106
00:38:06,170 --> 00:38:11,650
现在很难在科技股中找到干净的股票
1107
00:38:11,650 --> 00:38:14,010
除了那一个
1108
00:38:14,010 --> 00:38:15,889
只有amd
1109
00:38:15,889 --> 00:38:17,108
真的只有那个
1110
00:38:17,108 --> 00:38:19,909
因为你看它到2030年
1111
00:38:19,909 --> 00:38:22,840
你知道收入增长将无比惊人
1112
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,519
利润率将大幅提升盈利能力
1113
00:38:25,519 --> 00:38:26,059
说实话
1114
00:38:26,059 --> 00:38:29,480
我觉得看所有这些大科技股
1115
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:31,380
唯一干净的股票
1116
00:38:31,380 --> 00:38:35,619
唯一干净的就是amd
1117
00:38:36,019 --> 00:38:37,900
我持有这些股票中的几只
1118
00:38:37,900 --> 00:38:38,500
我持有谷歌
1119
00:38:38,500 --> 00:38:39,659
我持有亚马逊
1120
00:38:39,659 --> 00:38:41,079
我持有meta
1121
00:38:41,079 --> 00:38:43,260
我以前持有特斯拉
1122
00:38:43,260 --> 00:38:44,659
我持有shopify
1123
00:38:44,659 --> 00:38:45,639
我持有adobe
1124
00:38:45,639 --> 00:38:46,840
我持有呃
1125
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:47,280
Salesforce
1126
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:48,880
我持有service now没错
1127
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:50,159
这些显然是较新的
1128
00:38:50,159 --> 00:38:50,719
在我看来
1129
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:51,519
这些saas股票
1130
00:38:51,519 --> 00:38:53,920
而我持有的那些股票有些像拥有百年历史
1131
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:55,179
比如meta和亚马逊
1132
00:38:55,179 --> 00:38:55,500
没错
1133
00:38:55,500 --> 00:38:56,909
但听我说
1134
00:38:56,909 --> 00:38:59,369
所有股票中唯一干净的
1135
00:38:59,369 --> 00:39:00,349
就是amd
1136
00:39:00,349 --> 00:39:02,090
只有那个
1137
00:39:02,090 --> 00:39:03,690
如果你想知道为什么
1138
00:39:03,690 --> 00:39:05,329
股价持续上涨动能
1139
00:39:05,329 --> 00:39:07,010
因为唯一干净的科技股是amd
1140
00:39:07,010 --> 00:39:08,070
如果你要投资
1141
00:39:08,070 --> 00:39:10,510
记住很多人过于关注短期
1142
00:39:10,510 --> 00:39:12,650
你只有一个选择
1143
00:39:12,650 --> 00:39:14,050
拥有干净的故事
1144
00:39:14,050 --> 00:39:16,568
它在两年内仍保持干净故事
1145
00:39:16,568 --> 00:39:18,800
但这就是关键点
1146
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:19,940
各位一如既往感谢参与
1147
00:39:19,940 --> 00:39:21,079
再次感谢大家的到来
1148
00:39:21,079 --> 00:39:22,699
如果你想应用自己的预处理股票组
1149
00:39:22,699 --> 00:39:24,480
获取所有课程大纲的访问权限
1150
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:25,619
比如成为股票市场大师
1151
00:39:25,619 --> 00:39:26,590
百万富翁操作手册
1152
00:39:26,590 --> 00:39:27,710
股票期权精通课程
1153
00:39:27,710 --> 00:39:28,630
不同投资策略精通
1154
00:39:28,630 --> 00:39:29,789
财务报表精通课程
1155
00:39:29,789 --> 00:39:31,349
我的估值精通课程
1156
00:39:31,349 --> 00:39:32,829
如果你想获取千倍股票
1157
00:39:32,829 --> 00:39:33,230
互联网公司
1158
00:39:33,230 --> 00:39:33,909
私人Discord群组
1159
00:39:33,909 --> 00:39:35,309
观看独家每周视频
1160
00:39:35,309 --> 00:39:35,750
见证市场动向
1161
00:39:35,750 --> 00:39:37,230
我现在在下方做了置顶评论
1162
00:39:37,230 --> 00:39:38,340
点击填写表单
1163
00:39:38,340 --> 00:39:41,489
本周或下周将授予你访问权限
1164
00:39:41,489 --> 00:39:44,269
然后我们会将钢制会员卡寄到你家
1165
00:39:44,269 --> 00:39:45,619
祝你一切顺利,度过美好一天