【NaNa说美股】20260330先反弹吧，再搞事儿！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是3月30号

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周一周末呢

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中东那边依然没有什么好消息

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局势持续紧张

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本周开始

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日韩股市先跌为敬

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钱都在撒丫子

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跑回美国大本营

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美股开盘哈

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挺有迷惑性的

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四大股指都集体高开

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上周五的视频里

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我们就曾预测过

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如果周末没出什么事

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本周出呢大概率会出现超卖修复

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但这种反弹是很脆弱的

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纯粹就是技术性的抽动

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随时会被突发新闻给掐灭

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果不其然

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开盘之后反弹动能就迅速消退

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到收盘时

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标普与纳指双双回吐了日内涨幅转跌

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只有道指勉强收涨

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是大盘最后的倔强

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半导体

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航空航天

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还有专用工业机械

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这几个板块重挫

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脱离了大盘

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由于全球金融条件收紧

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同时经济增长预期与风险偏好同步下滑

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大家对AI资本开支的持续性呢开始产生了怀疑

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芯片股

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设备股全都稀里哗啦的下跌

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前期暴涨的存储啦

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官通性啦更是成了嗯暴力挤泡沫的重灾区

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存储龙头

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美观科技的股价呢

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已经指近期高点回撤了32%

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据高盛交易部门报告说

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连最爱抄底的韩国欧巴们都买不动了

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自3月中旬以来

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韩国散户买盘资金呢就逐渐枯竭

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之前韩国散户一直是粉底买入的主力哈

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现在弹药库估计也见底了

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都套在山顶上看风景了

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市场参与者对内存行业的前景发生了严重分歧

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一部分投资者认为传统的内存周期已经鉴定

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但是汇丰则认为市场担忧过度

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当前正处于AI驱动的内存超级周期的中产

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HBM等高端需求强劲

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内存短缺可能持续一到两年嗯

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我觉得其实就是股价之前涨太猛了嘛

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获利盘积累太多哈

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之前这个社长情绪好的时候呢

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就无脑的拉升

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但现在美债收益率一高

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机构们就先获利离场了

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他表示

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尽管能源冲击持续

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但是长期通胀预期保持稳定

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美联储倾向于维持利率不变

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市场将其解读为鸽派表态哈

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缓解了加息有率呃

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美债收益率呢短线走低

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交易员们纷纷撤回了年内加息的激进压注

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但是美债收益率大幅回落不一定是好事

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因为市场开始担心衰退风险

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大家怕中东局势导致燃料短缺

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直接拖垮全球经济

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现在的市场逻辑正从加息恐慌切换到衰退定价

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标普500指数这一轮调整啊

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已经接近10%了

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最近几个交易日呢

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空头动能释放过快哈

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技术上需要向6450到

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6500点附近靠拢

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反抽一下

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来修正这种极端的下杀速度

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但是今天早盘的反弹连5日均线都没能够摸到

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说明美股还是躺在重症监护室里

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连站起来的力气都没有

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6300这个支撑位如果失手

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那下一个落脚点就是历史前高6150了

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距离现在也不过就2.5%的距离哈

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要么直接一步到位

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要么先反抽再探底

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无论如何

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这个位置迟早都是要回踩测试的

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跌到这呢

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这一波有战争所引发的恐慌

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抛售可能会暂告一段落

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下一个阶段的走势

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就看美股企业盈利还能不能够支撑目前的估值

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因为到了4月中旬哈美股Q1财报即将开启了

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就正式检验这个额盈利前景的时候

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WTI油价呢又冲上了100美元

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更多的美国军队正在抵达中东

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伊朗支持也门胡塞武装也加入了冲突

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局势完全没有缓和的迹象

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宜兰议会今天还批准的法案

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计划想通过霍尔木兹海峡的船之征收通行费

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每艘200万美元

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这是完全不把美国放在眼里了哈

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波动率指数VIX4

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在30附近徘徊

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感觉是在等某个大事件的发生

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直接标上这个40以上

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可能就是大资金得到了消息

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也许川普等着这个长周末玩一把

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大的也说不定哈

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消息面上还是很混乱

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真真假假的

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搞得人头疼

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开盘之前

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川普发帖说

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谈判已经取得了重大进展

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伊朗已经同意停火

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15点计划中的大部分内容

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如果谈判破裂呢

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将会彻底摧毁伊朗所有发电厂

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油井以及哈尔克岛

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感觉像无能狂怒哈

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这个伊朗说fake news

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我们没有与美国进行任何谈判

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而且已经拒绝了美国的停火方案

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伊朗这边还威胁称

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如果发电设施遭到打击

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那就报复打击整个中东地区

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让整个中东地区都陷入停电的状态

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要死大家一起死嘛

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谁也别想好过

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据媒体爆料嗯

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美军可能会潜入伊朗境内硬抢高浓缩铀

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想想这个都觉得捏一把冷汗哈

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这种碟中谍级别的方案如果成真的话

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要么就是川普的勋章

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要么就是他的滑铁卢

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最倒霉的还是中东

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海湾国家

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白宫发言人莱维特表示

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川普可能会呼吁阿拉伯国家支付伊朗战争费用

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更多的细节将由川普直接透露

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说什么考虑之中呀

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这个私底下估计早就已经

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向中东王爷们众筹军饷了哈

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与此同时

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他也重申嗯

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伊朗战争的时间表呢

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仍为刚开始所宣布的4~6周诶

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这周已经呃是第五周嘞

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我真的很好奇剩下这两周到底能够干成什么呀

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嗯还是刚才那个猜测哈

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如果川普真的要玩一把大的

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我觉得很可能很可能是这个长周末

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因为这周周五休息嘛

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周五周六周日是吧

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三天时间刚好就嗯

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让这个下周市场开盘之前足够的消化

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根据高盛数据呢

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对冲基金已经连续六卖股做空

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抛售范围广泛

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所有主要地区都出现净卖出

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CCTA在过去一个月

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已经累计卖出了约1900亿美元的股票

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目前持有大约500亿美元净空头头寸

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抛售动能正在消退

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高盛估计未来一个月内

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无论市场走势如何

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CCTA都将会转为净买入

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与此同时

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明天3月31号是一季度收官

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高盛的模型预测

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养老金将在月末和季末再平衡操作中

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买入股票期权

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做市商约70亿美元的覆盖码敞口

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也将于这个月末到期消散

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多重技术性压力有望同步缓解

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这可能会给市场提供一个

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短期的不对称上行空间

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但是真正的趋势反转呢

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仍取决于中东局势的实质性缓和

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要是这么说的话

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如果明天周二

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美股市场出现了这个技术性反弹哈

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大家记住

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周四周五我们可能就要趁机减一些仓位了

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因为大资金肯定也会害怕

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长周末发生什么事情嘛

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可能就提前撤退

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不过呢也不要减太多哈

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万一这个长周末美军取得了大胜利的话

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那下个周一开始直接可能就大幅高开了

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所以呢就是一看点位哈

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6150

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这里二看时间窗口

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其他个股与板块方面

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英伟达股价值去年高点累跌超22%

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已经进入了熊市区域

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市值蒸发近9000亿美元

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12个月预期市盈率降到了大约在19.6倍

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低于标普500整体20倍的均值

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为2019年初以来最低水平

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美债收益率攀升

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拖累了风险资产市场担忧

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云厂商资本开支降速

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AI硬件竞争加剧

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所以就连这个AI教父呢也挡不住呃

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这一波抛售了

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股价在第一季度下跌了约26%

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正朝着08年全球金融危机以来

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最糟糕的季度表现迈进

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其他六家股价虽然也下跌了

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但是跌幅较小

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而不像这个巨软跌这么多

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AI资本支出

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00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:11,539
像黑洞哈云服务AZA的增长呢却放缓

220
00:09:11,539 --> 00:09:15,259
call pilot尚未获得显著市场的认可

221
00:09:15,259 --> 00:09:17,240
难怪不被投资者所待见

222
00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,059
目前远期市盈率已经压到了20倍以下

223
00:09:20,059 --> 00:09:21,759
为多年来最低水平

224
00:09:21,759 --> 00:09:23,279
过去15个交易日

225
00:09:23,279 --> 00:09:26,379
只收了一根可怜巴巴的小阳线呀

226
00:09:26,379 --> 00:09:28,659
股价短线严重超买

227
00:09:28,659 --> 00:09:30,519
存在技术性反弹的需求

228
00:09:30,519 --> 00:09:31,519
美国铝业呢

229
00:09:31,519 --> 00:09:35,299
接着中东两家大铝厂被炸得血色利好

230
00:09:35,299 --> 00:09:36,940
股价今天逆势大涨

231
00:09:36,940 --> 00:09:39,279
市场担心铝供应链会受扰

232
00:09:39,279 --> 00:09:42,289
所以提前炒作铝价上涨预期

233
00:09:42,289 --> 00:09:45,309
两房股价莫名其妙突然暴涨

234
00:09:45,309 --> 00:09:48,240
梵蒂美飙升了47%

235
00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:52,159
原因是华尔街大佬bill阿克曼在X上发帖唱多

236
00:09:52,159 --> 00:09:52,440
称

237
00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:54,879
中东冲突对全世界的和平

238
00:09:54,879 --> 00:09:57,039
还有全世界的股市都有利

239
00:09:57,039 --> 00:10:01,000
鼓励投资者赶紧抄底买入优质股票

240
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,839
比如两房成他们的估值低的离谱

241
00:10:03,839 --> 00:10:06,318
股价可能很快会上涨十倍

242
00:10:06,318 --> 00:10:09,599
之前有一期视频我们曾提到过比拉克曼

243
00:10:09,599 --> 00:10:12,798
他手里呢握有大量的两房股票哈

244
00:10:12,798 --> 00:10:15,349
是两房最大的个人投资者

245
00:10:15,349 --> 00:10:18,109
多年来就一直推动两方的私有化

246
00:10:18,109 --> 00:10:19,200
不管如何

247
00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:20,480
嗯也得感谢他

248
00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,919
因为我手里100股这个FMCC今天解套了

249
00:10:23,919 --> 00:10:27,259
本来我还以为可能到今年年底之前

250
00:10:27,259 --> 00:10:29,820
都要在深水区潜伏了行

251
00:10:29,820 --> 00:10:32,159
今天我们就简单的说到这里

252
00:10:32,159 --> 00:10:33,840
那我们明天见拜拜

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