BV1FKPPz6ExD · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:00,960 女士们先生们 2 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:02,540 这真是前所未有的市场 3 00:00:02,540 --> 00:00:04,379 我们拥有难以置信的动态 4 00:00:04,379 --> 00:00:05,459 市场下方正在发生很多事情 5 00:00:05,459 --> 00:00:07,820 今天我们在这段视频里要讨论的就是这个 6 00:00:07,820 --> 00:00:09,919 所以我刚刚在我的推特页面发布了这个 7 00:00:09,919 --> 00:00:11,669 大概讲的是什么 8 00:00:11,669 --> 00:00:12,630 就在18分钟前 9 00:00:12,630 --> 00:00:15,009 看起来已经有大约六千人观看了 10 00:00:15,009 --> 00:00:18,070 公开持仓今日已转为绿色 11 00:00:18,070 --> 00:00:19,410 这波操作太惊人了 12 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,179 我们将在视频中讨论许多股票 13 00:00:27,179 --> 00:00:29,320 包括AMD这样的股票 14 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:30,800 包括特斯拉这样的股票 15 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:32,000 英伟达 16 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:33,219 这些大蓝筹股没错 17 00:00:33,219 --> 00:00:35,479 我们还会在视频中分析小盘股 18 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:37,518 如果你喜欢股票讨论 19 00:00:37,518 --> 00:00:39,058 你一定会爱上今天的视频 20 00:00:39,058 --> 00:00:42,329 因为或者我们将在视频开头讨论大量股票 21 00:00:42,329 --> 00:00:43,109 好的接下来 22 00:00:43,109 --> 00:00:47,149 我想谈谈季节性因素及三月整体展望 23 00:00:47,149 --> 00:00:51,369 以及之后这个月对股市是否有利好 24 00:00:51,369 --> 00:00:51,829 继续分析 25 00:00:51,829 --> 00:00:53,630 我想回应汤姆·李的这段视频 26 00:00:53,630 --> 00:00:56,100 以及他对市场未来的预期 27 00:00:56,100 --> 00:00:58,539 然后我要回应19分钟前的这段视频 28 00:00:58,539 --> 00:00:59,960 波动性已经显现 29 00:00:59,960 --> 00:01:02,179 今天有很多内容要讲 30 00:01:02,179 --> 00:01:02,899 各位注意 31 00:01:02,899 --> 00:01:03,820 只需要做一件事 32 00:01:03,820 --> 00:01:05,579 如果你不介意点个赞 33 00:01:05,579 --> 00:01:06,900 那个小点赞图标 34 00:01:06,900 --> 00:01:07,980 这对我来说意义重大 35 00:01:07,980 --> 00:01:08,299 谢谢 36 00:01:08,299 --> 00:01:09,379 每一位这样做的观众 37 00:01:09,379 --> 00:01:10,599 甚至不需要我提醒 38 00:01:10,599 --> 00:01:12,900 希望你们能理解我尽力保持更新 39 00:01:12,900 --> 00:01:14,200 关于外界所有动态 40 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,500 尽力指出一些优质机会 41 00:01:17,500 --> 00:01:19,939 我非常感谢大家的支持 42 00:01:19,939 --> 00:01:21,000 订阅我们的频道 43 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,939 今天我还为大家准备了一份免费资源 44 00:01:23,939 --> 00:01:26,500 就在下方置顶评论 45 00:01:26,500 --> 00:01:28,120 最上方的置顶评论 46 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:30,859 这是我上周为大家整理的免费清单 47 00:01:30,859 --> 00:01:34,159 昨晚在主频道新视频中已告知大家 48 00:01:34,159 --> 00:01:34,959 我在主频道有更新 49 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:36,519 名为「现在该买入的五只股票」 50 00:01:36,519 --> 00:01:38,379 2026年三月刊 51 00:01:38,379 --> 00:01:39,079 不过啊 52 00:01:39,079 --> 00:01:39,359 是的 53 00:01:39,359 --> 00:01:41,480 我想让大家也能访问这个内容 54 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:41,840 完全免费 55 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:43,260 可以通过邮件发送 56 00:01:43,260 --> 00:01:44,159 或者短信发送 57 00:01:44,159 --> 00:01:44,939 然而 58 00:01:44,939 --> 00:01:45,719 你想要接收它 59 00:01:45,719 --> 00:01:45,980 简而言之 60 00:01:45,980 --> 00:01:46,879 这是一个小清单 61 00:01:46,879 --> 00:01:47,650 你需要逐一检查 62 00:01:47,650 --> 00:01:51,549 如果你答对四十题以上 63 00:01:51,549 --> 00:01:53,010 你的表现非常出色 64 00:01:53,010 --> 00:01:54,250 如果答对三十五到四十题 65 00:01:54,250 --> 00:01:55,430 你表现相当不错 66 00:01:55,430 --> 00:01:56,709 如果答对三十到三十五题 67 00:01:56,709 --> 00:01:57,750 你还有很长的路要走 68 00:01:57,750 --> 00:01:58,469 你还有很多要学习 69 00:01:58,469 --> 00:02:00,730 如果你在这次测试中得分低于三十 70 00:02:00,730 --> 00:02:01,730 这很糟糕 71 00:02:01,730 --> 00:02:02,989 你需要大量工作 72 00:02:02,989 --> 00:02:05,010 这能帮你了解当前水平 73 00:02:05,010 --> 00:02:06,290 关于你的投资旅程 74 00:02:06,290 --> 00:02:08,610 这个免费访问将在下方主推链接 75 00:02:08,610 --> 00:02:12,719 下方第二个图钉评论是私有股票群入口 76 00:02:12,719 --> 00:02:13,340 私人财富群 77 00:02:13,340 --> 00:02:14,539 所有课程大纲 78 00:02:14,539 --> 00:02:15,840 所有优质内容 79 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:16,819 好的各位 80 00:02:16,819 --> 00:02:19,439 那我们马上开始吧 81 00:02:19,439 --> 00:02:21,159 聊聊股票吧 82 00:02:21,159 --> 00:02:21,860 我们想做这件事 83 00:02:21,860 --> 00:02:22,520 让我们开始 84 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:22,840 好的 85 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,080 听着 86 00:02:24,449 --> 00:02:26,849 这个市场太惊人了 87 00:02:26,849 --> 00:02:29,250 现在我们开始出现大幅波动 88 00:02:29,250 --> 00:02:32,770 今早我看到VIC指数飙升至两左右 89 00:02:32,770 --> 00:02:36,689 我认为VIC指数涨至约27-28区间 90 00:02:36,689 --> 00:02:37,899 这并不像 91 00:02:37,899 --> 00:02:38,479 哦 92 00:02:38,479 --> 00:02:39,919 这前所未见 93 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,300 但确实处于极高水平 94 00:02:43,300 --> 00:02:44,599 非常高涨对吧 95 00:02:44,599 --> 00:02:47,000 CUE指数已下跌超5% 96 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:47,900 从历史最高点 97 00:02:47,900 --> 00:02:50,919 这属于小幅回调 98 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:52,419 但无重大影响 99 00:02:52,419 --> 00:02:54,719 目前仍处于这一阶段 100 00:02:54,719 --> 00:02:58,969 请记住那些万圣节前后创下的历史高点 101 00:02:58,969 --> 00:02:59,629 现在已是三月 102 00:02:59,629 --> 00:03:00,729 在此时此刻 103 00:03:00,729 --> 00:03:03,770 所以我们处于一个 104 00:03:04,169 --> 00:03:06,909 从指数角度看市场处于休眠状态 105 00:03:06,909 --> 00:03:08,050 近期表现相当平淡 106 00:03:08,050 --> 00:03:09,009 下跌了5% 107 00:03:09,009 --> 00:03:10,770 但并非崩盘式下跌 108 00:03:10,770 --> 00:03:12,409 也并非像 109 00:03:12,409 --> 00:03:13,469 创出历史新高 110 00:03:13,469 --> 00:03:16,250 这是一个许多散户投资者 111 00:03:16,250 --> 00:03:18,500 尤其是许多新手投资者 112 00:03:18,500 --> 00:03:19,539 容易感到乏味 113 00:03:19,539 --> 00:03:20,719 逐渐变得懈怠 114 00:03:20,719 --> 00:03:22,300 你知道我在这种时期 115 00:03:22,300 --> 00:03:22,800 像这样 116 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:24,219 当市场不再上涨时 117 00:03:24,219 --> 00:03:26,530 而指数下跌5% 118 00:03:26,530 --> 00:03:28,349 你知道我该怎么做 119 00:03:28,349 --> 00:03:32,000 专注于增持优质公司的股票 120 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:33,479 增加持股比例 121 00:03:33,479 --> 00:03:35,979 你需要明白每购买这些股票的股份 122 00:03:35,979 --> 00:03:39,280 都在提升你对该公司的所有权 123 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,300 这就是我在这段时间的策略 124 00:03:41,300 --> 00:03:43,860 自万圣节以来指数毫无动静 125 00:03:43,860 --> 00:03:44,639 技术性下跌 126 00:03:44,639 --> 00:03:45,689 5% 127 00:03:45,689 --> 00:03:46,969 对我来说完全正常 128 00:03:46,969 --> 00:03:50,789 这给了我以极低价格买入优质公司的机会 129 00:03:50,789 --> 00:03:54,319 持续增加持股并巩固所有权 130 00:03:54,319 --> 00:03:55,560 规模越来越大 131 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:57,620 如何获得更多收入 132 00:03:57,620 --> 00:04:00,120 首先是收支平衡 133 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,460 如果现在正在观看的观众 134 00:04:02,460 --> 00:04:06,039 若你尚未实现收入超过支出 135 00:04:06,039 --> 00:04:08,460 这应成为你财务生活的首要目标 136 00:04:08,460 --> 00:04:10,490 巴诺 137 00:04:11,289 --> 00:04:14,509 这是当前所有观众必须关注的重点 138 00:04:14,509 --> 00:04:17,278 每月收入持续超过支出 139 00:04:17,278 --> 00:04:18,319 你做得很好 140 00:04:18,319 --> 00:04:20,199 现在要更注重提升收入 141 00:04:20,199 --> 00:04:22,439 宝宝然后我们真正开始行动 142 00:04:22,439 --> 00:04:24,199 因为这时我们才能谈论 143 00:04:24,199 --> 00:04:25,278 财富开始积累 144 00:04:25,278 --> 00:04:27,569 有人能每月投入2000美元 145 00:04:27,569 --> 00:04:29,928 或投资股票与仅投入200美元的人 146 00:04:29,928 --> 00:04:33,608 每月存200美元 147 00:04:33,608 --> 00:04:36,889 以每月2000美元的速度积累财富 148 00:04:36,889 --> 00:04:37,288 没错 149 00:04:37,288 --> 00:04:41,290 指数从历史高点下跌约5% 150 00:04:41,290 --> 00:04:42,158 呃，穆 151 00:04:42,158 --> 00:04:44,319 最近这一只明显大幅下跌了 152 00:04:45,358 --> 00:04:47,639 记得穆最近表现非常强势 153 00:04:47,639 --> 00:04:51,279 但目前比高位下跌了很多 154 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:51,600 我是说 155 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,439 现在这只正在四点四十左右试探 156 00:04:54,439 --> 00:04:55,339 三十八十一点 157 00:04:55,339 --> 00:04:56,639 呃，穆 158 00:04:56,639 --> 00:04:59,800 我觉得未来几年这只股会区间震荡 159 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,360 我认为穆将成为区间震荡股 160 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,839 未来几年大概在三百到五百美元区间 161 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:06,959 未来走势 162 00:05:06,959 --> 00:05:09,000 当人们非常看多穆时 163 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:10,600 会将其推高至五百点区间 164 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:11,720 当市场极度悲观时 165 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:12,680 它会回落 166 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:13,079 你知道的 167 00:05:13,079 --> 00:05:15,079 现在大概在三百点左右 168 00:05:15,079 --> 00:05:17,579 我认为它会长期维持在这个区间 169 00:05:17,579 --> 00:05:19,220 他们的财报会很亮眼 170 00:05:19,220 --> 00:05:19,779 我们都知道 171 00:05:19,779 --> 00:05:22,800 但已经涨幅惊人 172 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,379 一年内的大部分涨幅已计入股价 173 00:05:25,379 --> 00:05:27,519 股票涨幅达三百二十个百分点 174 00:05:27,519 --> 00:05:28,149 好的 175 00:05:28,149 --> 00:05:31,189 A M D和A M D 176 00:05:31,189 --> 00:05:31,889 这只 177 00:05:31,889 --> 00:05:33,490 大家都在说 178 00:05:33,490 --> 00:05:35,269 AMD现在实在太弱了 179 00:05:35,269 --> 00:05:36,949 每股一百九十美元 180 00:05:36,949 --> 00:05:38,029 目前价格 181 00:05:38,029 --> 00:05:38,970 对了 182 00:05:38,970 --> 00:05:41,129 大幅偏离前期高点 183 00:05:41,129 --> 00:05:41,810 这些高点 184 00:05:41,810 --> 00:05:43,269 股价曾达到 185 00:05:43,269 --> 00:05:43,970 万圣节期间 186 00:05:43,970 --> 00:05:44,819 再次 187 00:05:44,904 --> 00:05:46,500 中期六十多 188 00:05:46,500 --> 00:05:48,220 二十六四到六五 189 00:05:48,220 --> 00:05:49,000 这个区间 190 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:50,800 然后我们又接近过 191 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:52,110 在二十六点区间 192 00:05:52,110 --> 00:05:53,730 一月份时 193 00:05:53,730 --> 00:05:55,990 AMD现在走势疲软 194 00:05:55,990 --> 00:05:57,250 但听我说 195 00:05:57,250 --> 00:06:01,050 关于AMD的关键教训 196 00:06:01,370 --> 00:06:03,509 当它获得支撑位时 197 00:06:03,509 --> 00:06:04,610 将大幅上涨 198 00:06:05,610 --> 00:06:07,620 所以AMD可能随时崩盘 199 00:06:07,620 --> 00:06:08,319 现在资金都在撤离 200 00:06:08,319 --> 00:06:09,480 它根本没做什么 201 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,069 我告诉你在九十天内 202 00:06:12,069 --> 00:06:14,290 这场演讲可能会上升到全新层次 203 00:06:14,290 --> 00:06:15,589 全新的一个量级 204 00:06:15,589 --> 00:06:16,470 你是什么意思 205 00:06:16,470 --> 00:06:17,579 为什么是amd 206 00:06:17,579 --> 00:06:19,579 现在你知道要两百九十美元了 207 00:06:19,579 --> 00:06:21,379 我发誓之前才一百九十美元 208 00:06:21,379 --> 00:06:24,100 三个月后就涨到两百九十美元 209 00:06:24,100 --> 00:06:25,509 怎么回事 210 00:06:25,709 --> 00:06:27,209 这是一只趋势股 211 00:06:27,209 --> 00:06:28,490 当它失去势头 212 00:06:28,490 --> 00:06:29,329 没人想买这只股票 213 00:06:29,329 --> 00:06:31,050 突然间势头开始积聚 214 00:06:31,050 --> 00:06:32,649 炒作也开始升温 215 00:06:32,649 --> 00:06:34,050 兴奋感逐渐增强 216 00:06:34,050 --> 00:06:37,389 股票就会飙升 217 00:06:37,389 --> 00:06:39,949 所以对于amd来说 218 00:06:39,949 --> 00:06:42,790 我认为下一份财报指引非常重要 219 00:06:42,790 --> 00:06:46,000 他们的下季度财报将在大约 220 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,040 amd的下季度财报大概在一个月半后 221 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,180 下次财报可能稍早一些 222 00:06:52,180 --> 00:06:53,920 假设超出预期 223 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,000 但指引非常强劲 224 00:06:57,439 --> 00:07:02,019 假设他们达成全年预期目标 225 00:07:02,019 --> 00:07:02,959 哦 226 00:07:02,959 --> 00:07:04,230 哦 227 00:07:04,550 --> 00:07:06,149 准备好迎接火箭般的上涨 228 00:07:06,149 --> 00:07:08,430 你会看到股价从190涨到290 229 00:07:08,430 --> 00:07:09,290 眨眼之间 230 00:07:09,290 --> 00:07:10,389 这是一只趋势股 231 00:07:10,389 --> 00:07:12,740 这就是amd的本质 232 00:07:12,740 --> 00:07:13,300 好的 233 00:07:13,300 --> 00:07:15,300 特斯拉股价目前持续疲软 234 00:07:15,300 --> 00:07:18,240 但如果信号持续疲软 235 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:19,240 特斯拉将继续低迷 236 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:20,379 如果信号非常疲软 237 00:07:20,379 --> 00:07:23,699 必须理解信号越差 238 00:07:23,699 --> 00:07:26,920 特斯拉的极端压力越大 239 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,360 这只还没经历严重打击 240 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:29,779 目前还没 241 00:07:29,779 --> 00:07:31,100 这只已经大幅下跌 242 00:07:31,100 --> 00:07:32,279 那些约四九十的高位 243 00:07:32,279 --> 00:07:33,740 我们常说四九十 244 00:07:33,740 --> 00:07:35,160 现在跌至三九十 245 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,689 但特斯拉后续还有更大压力 246 00:07:37,689 --> 00:07:39,709 如果信号进一步恶化 247 00:07:39,709 --> 00:07:40,750 如果信号反弹 248 00:07:40,750 --> 00:07:43,230 那么特斯拉可能 249 00:07:43,230 --> 00:07:45,569 我不认为特斯拉能在这种环境下表现优异 250 00:07:45,569 --> 00:07:46,230 无论怎样 251 00:07:46,230 --> 00:07:48,470 因为SpaceX的IPO可能今年就要来了 252 00:07:48,470 --> 00:07:51,310 这将导致大量资金从特斯拉流出 253 00:07:51,310 --> 00:07:53,329 因为我们即将推出令人兴奋的新事物 254 00:07:53,329 --> 00:07:55,870 趋势交易者会更倾向于投资SpaceX而非特斯拉 255 00:07:55,870 --> 00:07:56,790 以及所有这类情况 256 00:07:56,790 --> 00:07:57,189 好的 257 00:07:57,189 --> 00:07:57,589 呃 258 00:07:57,589 --> 00:08:00,399 Snowflake的股票持续表现疲软 259 00:08:00,399 --> 00:08:00,600 比如 260 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:01,160 看看这个 261 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:02,918 这在两个月前是277美元 262 00:08:02,918 --> 00:08:04,199 仅仅在11月 263 00:08:04,199 --> 00:08:04,559 现在 264 00:08:04,559 --> 00:08:05,678 跌至166美元 265 00:08:05,678 --> 00:08:06,059 他们的 266 00:08:06,059 --> 00:08:07,319 他们的问题在于利润表 267 00:08:07,319 --> 00:08:10,600 他们的开支仍然居高不下 268 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,800 远低于历史峰值水平 269 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,038 该股在12月4日曾触及历史高点13美元 270 00:08:16,038 --> 00:08:18,178 每股已基本损失约100美元 271 00:08:18,178 --> 00:08:20,538 NVIDIA仍在苦苦挣扎 272 00:08:20,538 --> 00:08:22,838 尽管财务数据惊人 273 00:08:22,838 --> 00:08:23,399 天啊 274 00:08:23,399 --> 00:08:24,100 简直不可思议 275 00:08:24,100 --> 00:08:24,480 我是说 276 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:25,420 看看这只股票 277 00:08:25,420 --> 00:08:27,259 我们可以回溯到八月 278 00:08:27,259 --> 00:08:29,689 甚至可以回到七月 279 00:08:29,689 --> 00:08:31,250 价格仍在同一区间波动 280 00:08:31,250 --> 00:08:33,009 去年七月时 281 00:08:33,009 --> 00:08:36,289 尽管NVIDIA的业绩表现卓越 282 00:08:36,289 --> 00:08:37,399 但问题在于 283 00:08:37,399 --> 00:08:39,279 市场已充分预期 284 00:08:39,279 --> 00:08:44,039 然后人们开始思考NVIDIA 285 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:48,740 随着今年推进，增长速度将大幅放缓 286 00:08:48,740 --> 00:08:53,360 本季度你将见证最高增长峰值 287 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:56,299 你即将看到的营收增长率 288 00:08:56,299 --> 00:09:00,269 接下来季度增速将显著下降 289 00:09:00,269 --> 00:09:02,049 显著低于下一季度 290 00:09:02,049 --> 00:09:03,450 显著低于下一季度 291 00:09:03,450 --> 00:09:03,889 没错 292 00:09:03,889 --> 00:09:05,720 这就是这类情况 293 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,279 增长型投资者难以兴奋 294 00:09:08,279 --> 00:09:11,240 价值投资者也难以入场NVIDIA 295 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,799 因为他们不清楚 296 00:09:13,799 --> 00:09:15,419 他们不清楚可持续性 297 00:09:15,419 --> 00:09:17,820 所有这一切都关乎芯片支出 298 00:09:17,820 --> 00:09:19,399 因此价值投资者感到恐惧 299 00:09:19,399 --> 00:09:20,779 增长投资者在观望 300 00:09:20,779 --> 00:09:21,299 他们就像 301 00:09:21,299 --> 00:09:21,840 天啊 302 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:27,120 随着2026年的推进，收入增长率将大幅下降 303 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:29,679 这导致整体低迷，尤其是英伟达 304 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:31,480 这就是我们现在的情况 305 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,360 谷歌麦克道格尔和英伟达 306 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:35,679 就像我说的，我做了这个预测 307 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:36,480 我想是去年 308 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,559 我说这只股票将长期保持在约1 309 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,399 25到200美元区间 310 00:09:42,399 --> 00:09:44,379 几年时间 311 00:09:44,379 --> 00:09:45,980 这就是我看到的情况 312 00:09:45,980 --> 00:09:47,440 人们会在排队时变得乐观 313 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:48,179 在视频领域变得乐观 314 00:09:48,179 --> 00:09:50,710 你会看到它反弹到200美元区间 315 00:09:50,710 --> 00:09:52,110 人们感到看空 316 00:09:52,110 --> 00:09:53,269 非常看空 317 00:09:53,269 --> 00:09:55,110 他们会把它打压到约1 318 00:09:55,110 --> 00:09:56,809 31.25到14美元 319 00:09:56,809 --> 00:09:58,070 在这个区间内 320 00:09:58,070 --> 00:09:58,620 对吧 321 00:09:58,620 --> 00:09:59,840 谷歌麦克道格尔 322 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:01,580 这只股票开始明显疲软 323 00:10:01,580 --> 00:10:04,519 它一个月前刚触及高点 324 00:10:04,519 --> 00:10:06,360 现在在344美元 325 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:07,720 跌至302美元 326 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:09,730 谷歌麦克道格尔 327 00:10:10,210 --> 00:10:10,649 听着 328 00:10:10,649 --> 00:10:11,750 他们执行得不错 329 00:10:11,750 --> 00:10:12,269 他们 330 00:10:12,269 --> 00:10:13,210 他们已经证明 331 00:10:13,210 --> 00:10:15,210 他们是AI革命的先锋 332 00:10:16,370 --> 00:10:19,639 这只股票 333 00:10:19,639 --> 00:10:21,080 是一家好公司 334 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:22,279 估值偏高 335 00:10:22,279 --> 00:10:23,960 涨幅确实极端 336 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:24,379 我不知道 337 00:10:24,379 --> 00:10:25,659 以一年为基准 338 00:10:25,659 --> 00:10:26,700 这只股票上涨 339 00:10:26,700 --> 00:10:28,220 79% 340 00:10:28,220 --> 00:10:29,639 经历了大幅上涨 341 00:10:29,639 --> 00:10:31,039 而谷歌只是 342 00:10:31,039 --> 00:10:33,480 我认为现在处于盘整状态 343 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,080 这就是现状 344 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:35,519 没有 345 00:10:35,519 --> 00:10:37,879 这就是现状，甲骨文 346 00:10:37,879 --> 00:10:40,779 这只股票无人问津 347 00:10:40,779 --> 00:10:43,250 哦哦 348 00:10:43,250 --> 00:10:45,309 这只股票惨不忍睹 349 00:10:45,309 --> 00:10:48,068 过去一年下跌8% 350 00:10:48,068 --> 00:10:50,948 显然，它从这些高点下跌了一英里半 351 00:10:50,948 --> 00:10:52,389 九月份曾一度回升 352 00:10:52,389 --> 00:10:52,928 三 353 00:10:52,928 --> 00:10:53,288 二 354 00:10:53,288 --> 00:10:53,869 七 355 00:10:53,869 --> 00:10:54,708 三点三十分 356 00:10:54,708 --> 00:10:55,589 大概在这个区间 357 00:10:55,589 --> 00:10:57,109 而且是140 358 00:10:57,109 --> 00:10:57,889 八美元 359 00:10:57,889 --> 00:10:59,969 我最近在考虑投资甲骨文 360 00:10:59,969 --> 00:11:00,948 因为天啊 361 00:11:00,948 --> 00:11:02,688 这些股票下跌这么多 362 00:11:02,688 --> 00:11:04,389 但 363 00:11:05,980 --> 00:11:07,919 我不喜欢他们的资产负债表 364 00:11:07,919 --> 00:11:10,000 我非常不喜欢他们的资产负债表 365 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:11,519 他们必须承担 366 00:11:11,519 --> 00:11:13,960 资产负债表在未来几年 367 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:15,480 可能会变得更糟 368 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:16,039 我心想 369 00:11:16,039 --> 00:11:17,440 我是否应该持有甲骨文 370 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,440 即使我认为他们未来几年有不错的营收机会 371 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:22,909 如果我认为资产负债表会更混乱 372 00:11:22,909 --> 00:11:24,450 我非常重视资产负债表 373 00:11:24,450 --> 00:11:26,490 但他们完全没有这个 374 00:11:26,490 --> 00:11:32,158 亚马逊作为优质公司令人惊叹 375 00:11:32,158 --> 00:11:33,619 显然大家都很担忧 376 00:11:34,818 --> 00:11:37,480 亚马逊和Meta无法获得任何动量 377 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:38,159 因为什么 378 00:11:38,159 --> 00:11:38,820 我之前告诉过你们 379 00:11:38,820 --> 00:11:40,080 你知道我早就指出过 380 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:41,279 现在回想几个月前 381 00:11:41,279 --> 00:11:42,049 在当前这个阶段 382 00:11:42,049 --> 00:11:43,649 我说过亚马逊和Meta的问题 383 00:11:43,649 --> 00:11:45,850 而这正是我的两大重仓股 384 00:11:45,850 --> 00:11:48,899 并将长期保持我的两大核心投资 385 00:11:48,899 --> 00:11:51,860 但短期内它们很难获得动量 386 00:11:51,860 --> 00:11:53,379 作为长期投资者 387 00:11:53,379 --> 00:11:55,039 我不会大量抛售 388 00:11:55,039 --> 00:11:57,559 因为它们短期内可能无法获得动量 389 00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,019 但核心结论是 390 00:11:59,049 --> 00:12:02,360 未来几年将面临大幅折旧 391 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:03,980 因为现在都在疯狂买入芯片 392 00:12:03,980 --> 00:12:05,580 他们必须计提这些折旧 393 00:12:05,580 --> 00:12:08,429 这显然不是理想局面 394 00:12:08,429 --> 00:12:09,429 Netflix 395 00:12:09,429 --> 00:12:10,759 Netflix 396 00:12:10,759 --> 00:12:11,960 Netflix的好消息 397 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,139 如果他们不做这笔交易 398 00:12:14,139 --> 00:12:16,120 这对Netflix来说是最好消息 399 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:16,779 在我看来 400 00:12:16,779 --> 00:12:17,639 他们在做这笔交易 401 00:12:17,639 --> 00:12:18,710 我觉得这不太妙 402 00:12:18,710 --> 00:12:19,470 这不好 403 00:12:19,470 --> 00:12:19,889 好的 404 00:12:19,889 --> 00:12:20,470 优步 405 00:12:21,590 --> 00:12:25,909 优步只是我认为未来几年能赚大钱的股票 406 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:30,200 我认为今年和明年的利润会非常惊人 407 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:31,779 可能甚至到2028年 408 00:12:31,779 --> 00:12:33,769 但听我说优步 409 00:12:33,769 --> 00:12:34,990 毫无疑问 410 00:12:34,990 --> 00:12:38,649 未来几年他们将面临巨大颠覆 411 00:12:38,649 --> 00:12:42,909 比如特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车网络即将爆发 412 00:12:42,909 --> 00:12:43,330 没错 413 00:12:43,330 --> 00:12:45,029 显然特斯拉已经考虑了这一点 414 00:12:45,029 --> 00:12:50,019 而Waymo也在逐步扩展到各个城市 415 00:12:50,019 --> 00:12:57,190 我认为特斯拉和Waymo将成为重要竞争对手 416 00:12:57,190 --> 00:13:01,340 还有由亚马逊支持的Zoox，比如在拉斯维加斯 417 00:13:01,340 --> 00:13:02,820 我们已经开始看到这些车型 418 00:13:02,820 --> 00:13:05,340 他们已陆续推出这些车辆 419 00:13:05,340 --> 00:13:06,980 就在拉斯维加斯 420 00:13:06,980 --> 00:13:13,299 因此特斯拉和谷歌Waymo将面临激烈竞争 421 00:13:13,299 --> 00:13:16,889 没错，还要记住 422 00:13:16,889 --> 00:13:17,649 这很棘手 423 00:13:17,649 --> 00:13:20,450 因为谷歌和亚马逊资金雄厚 424 00:13:20,450 --> 00:13:21,068 没错 425 00:13:21,068 --> 00:13:22,089 他们资金充裕 426 00:13:22,089 --> 00:13:26,649 未来几年可以大力投资自动驾驶出租车机会 427 00:13:26,649 --> 00:13:30,090 特斯拉必须抓住这个 428 00:13:30,090 --> 00:13:31,990 这对特斯拉至关重要 429 00:13:31,990 --> 00:13:35,230 如果这对特斯拉不重要，他们别无他途 430 00:13:35,230 --> 00:13:36,259 字面意思 431 00:13:36,259 --> 00:13:37,840 他们的车辆销量不佳 432 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,720 从近年数据来看事实如此 433 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:41,840 简直是灾难 434 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,039 他们本应呈指数级增长 435 00:13:44,039 --> 00:13:44,759 但他们却 436 00:13:44,759 --> 00:13:45,159 你知道的 437 00:13:45,159 --> 00:13:46,779 销量在过去几年持续下滑 438 00:13:46,779 --> 00:13:48,019 糟糕透了 439 00:13:48,019 --> 00:13:49,220 然后呢 440 00:13:49,220 --> 00:13:49,519 哦 441 00:13:49,519 --> 00:13:50,419 Optimus机器人 442 00:13:50,419 --> 00:13:52,480 这还需多年 443 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,220 在我看来这还不是重点 444 00:13:54,220 --> 00:13:59,070 直到2030年代才能成为特斯拉的重要收入来源 445 00:14:01,470 --> 00:14:02,730 他们 446 00:14:02,730 --> 00:14:04,590 他们必须成功实现自动驾驶 447 00:14:04,590 --> 00:14:06,490 出租车业务，这家公司 448 00:14:06,490 --> 00:14:08,730 生死攸关 449 00:14:08,730 --> 00:14:10,210 他们在这里能成功 450 00:14:10,210 --> 00:14:11,870 然后你得和谷歌对抗 451 00:14:11,870 --> 00:14:15,789 还要与亚马逊争夺无限资源 452 00:14:16,038 --> 00:14:18,519 而谷歌正通过Waymo全力布局 453 00:14:18,519 --> 00:14:18,719 没错 454 00:14:18,719 --> 00:14:20,759 他们在这方面专注了最久 455 00:14:20,759 --> 00:14:23,259 这对他们的商业模式是巨大机遇 456 00:14:23,259 --> 00:14:24,828 哇 457 00:14:25,389 --> 00:14:26,649 我不想成为Uber 458 00:14:26,649 --> 00:14:27,629 对Uber有利的是 459 00:14:27,629 --> 00:14:28,068 是一个男人 460 00:14:28,068 --> 00:14:29,109 Uber Eats确实没错 461 00:14:29,109 --> 00:14:31,690 我认为这对他们非常好 462 00:14:31,690 --> 00:14:32,830 他们有订阅计划 463 00:14:32,830 --> 00:14:33,730 但天啊 464 00:14:33,730 --> 00:14:37,429 拼车业务对他们来说如此庞大 465 00:14:37,870 --> 00:14:39,870 这可不好 466 00:14:39,870 --> 00:14:40,350 这可不好 467 00:14:40,350 --> 00:14:40,549 我说 468 00:14:40,549 --> 00:14:44,279 如果我必须选择投资DoorDash或Uber 469 00:14:44,279 --> 00:14:48,039 我肯定会选DoorDash 470 00:14:48,039 --> 00:14:49,600 同时我得记住 471 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:51,600 我不想投资任何一家 472 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:53,820 现在我们来看Uber的财报 473 00:14:53,820 --> 00:14:56,990 再对比DoorDash的数据 474 00:14:56,990 --> 00:15:00,120 我们先看看这里 475 00:15:01,379 --> 00:15:03,799 DoorDash的前瞻市盈率 476 00:15:03,799 --> 00:15:06,120 在此处为三十一点 477 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:07,820 Uber则约为十六点 478 00:15:08,860 --> 00:15:13,190 但从商业模式来看 479 00:15:13,190 --> 00:15:20,250 我对食品配送未来五到十年更有信心 480 00:15:20,250 --> 00:15:24,460 相比之下我认为Uber处境艰难 481 00:15:24,460 --> 00:15:27,059 说实话他们未来几年处境堪忧 482 00:15:27,059 --> 00:15:27,580 好的 483 00:15:27,580 --> 00:15:29,730 当我提到困难处境 484 00:15:29,730 --> 00:15:32,679 他们未来几年将创造惊人利润 485 00:15:32,679 --> 00:15:35,379 而业务极具颠覆性 486 00:15:35,379 --> 00:15:37,679 这形成复杂局面 487 00:15:37,679 --> 00:15:39,210 Palantir 488 00:15:39,490 --> 00:15:41,870 估值一度飙升至离谱水平 489 00:15:41,870 --> 00:15:44,149 我多次提及这一点 490 00:15:44,149 --> 00:15:44,610 作为原因 491 00:15:44,610 --> 00:15:47,429 去年我已抛售大部分Palantir股份 492 00:15:47,429 --> 00:15:48,769 估值变得荒谬 493 00:15:48,769 --> 00:15:50,190 简直失控了 494 00:15:50,190 --> 00:15:52,929 显然为此付出了代价 495 00:15:52,929 --> 00:15:55,490 但好消息是 496 00:15:55,490 --> 00:15:56,250 数据表现优异 497 00:15:56,250 --> 00:15:58,190 Palantir的另一问题是 498 00:15:58,190 --> 00:16:02,029 营收增速可能开始放缓 499 00:16:02,029 --> 00:16:03,899 帕兰蒂尔在哪里 500 00:16:03,899 --> 00:16:05,500 这确实是一个非常激动人心的周期 501 00:16:05,500 --> 00:16:09,039 收入增长率百分比正在上升 502 00:16:09,039 --> 00:16:09,779 呃 503 00:16:09,779 --> 00:16:10,299 呃 504 00:16:10,299 --> 00:16:10,740 呃 505 00:16:10,740 --> 00:16:11,568 呃 506 00:16:11,568 --> 00:16:13,548 我们现在可能已经见顶了 507 00:16:13,548 --> 00:16:18,328 收入增长率百分比可能会开始下降 508 00:16:19,070 --> 00:16:20,830 我的意思是 509 00:16:20,830 --> 00:16:22,580 如果它不开始下降 510 00:16:22,580 --> 00:16:24,220 这个季度将在下一季度到来 511 00:16:24,220 --> 00:16:25,799 但几乎就像 512 00:16:25,799 --> 00:16:29,970 我可以说在接下来的一个到两个季度内有99%的把握 513 00:16:29,970 --> 00:16:34,659 帕兰蒂尔的收入增长率百分比将开始放缓 514 00:16:34,659 --> 00:16:39,539 他们从73%的收入增长降至65%或60% 515 00:16:39,539 --> 00:16:40,639 然后会降到5% 516 00:16:40,639 --> 00:16:41,639 5%对吧 517 00:16:41,639 --> 00:16:47,328 这对增长型投资者和动量型投资者来说非常重要 518 00:16:47,328 --> 00:16:50,188 因此他们通常不愿意参与这只股票 519 00:16:50,188 --> 00:16:52,789 除非是在全面风险偏好市场 520 00:16:52,789 --> 00:16:53,889 他们才会另眼相看 521 00:16:53,889 --> 00:16:56,649 但通常增长型投资者不愿持有 522 00:16:56,649 --> 00:16:59,970 收入增长率百分比持续下降的股票 523 00:16:59,970 --> 00:17:00,490 下降 524 00:17:00,490 --> 00:17:00,970 下降 525 00:17:00,970 --> 00:17:02,899 这就是英伟达正在发生的情况 526 00:17:02,899 --> 00:17:04,859 所以英伟达的数据并不差 527 00:17:04,859 --> 00:17:05,579 它们表现非凡 528 00:17:05,579 --> 00:17:06,319 它们令人惊叹 529 00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:09,469 但收入增长率百分比 530 00:17:09,469 --> 00:17:11,388 你们知道那里在下降对吧 531 00:17:11,388 --> 00:17:13,949 萨菲的估值变得有吸引力 532 00:17:13,949 --> 00:17:15,000 我的意思是 533 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,359 天哪微软最近变得有吸引力了吗 534 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:19,599 需注意 535 00:17:19,599 --> 00:17:22,119 Azure增长上季度是3.8% 536 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,789 或类似数据请看这位 537 00:17:24,789 --> 00:17:25,450 萨菲 538 00:17:25,450 --> 00:17:26,630 阿多德 539 00:17:26,630 --> 00:17:30,589 二二年前瞻市盈率 540 00:17:31,118 --> 00:17:33,898 微软的表现令人难以置信 541 00:17:33,898 --> 00:17:36,369 我的意思是 542 00:17:36,369 --> 00:17:37,089 天啊 543 00:17:37,089 --> 00:17:38,150 天啊 544 00:17:38,150 --> 00:17:40,849 看当前年度预期每股收益增长率 545 00:17:40,849 --> 00:17:41,150 低 546 00:17:41,150 --> 00:17:42,779 明年双位数增长 547 00:17:42,779 --> 00:17:44,380 中双位数 548 00:17:44,380 --> 00:17:46,119 收入增长预期 549 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,039 本财年增长16%，明年15% 550 00:17:49,039 --> 00:17:51,900 15%的增长啊 551 00:17:53,009 --> 00:17:55,890 这很难直接决定不买了 552 00:17:55,890 --> 00:17:56,500 呃 553 00:17:56,500 --> 00:17:57,720 非常引人入胜 554 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,059 Shopify Shopify Shopify 555 00:18:00,059 --> 00:18:02,380 这家最近刚接触Shopify 556 00:18:02,380 --> 00:18:03,279 达到峰值了 557 00:18:03,279 --> 00:18:04,549 大约178美元 558 00:18:04,549 --> 00:18:05,089 你知道的 559 00:18:05,089 --> 00:18:06,730 记住关于Shopify 560 00:18:06,730 --> 00:18:09,410 关于这支股票 561 00:18:09,410 --> 00:18:10,049 具体来说 562 00:18:10,049 --> 00:18:12,109 关于Shopify你需要知道两件事 563 00:18:12,109 --> 00:18:14,029 一家优秀公司 564 00:18:14,029 --> 00:18:15,509 增长潜力巨大 565 00:18:15,509 --> 00:18:17,949 这是了解Shopify的第一点 566 00:18:17,949 --> 00:18:22,028 我持有这支股票是投资组合中的重要仓位 567 00:18:22,028 --> 00:18:23,319 如果你想加入我的Patreon 568 00:18:23,319 --> 00:18:25,099 链接在下方描述中 569 00:18:25,099 --> 00:18:26,119 还有我的X账号 570 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,769 如果你想应用你的股票策略 571 00:18:30,210 --> 00:18:33,650 关于Shopify股票的另一点很重要 572 00:18:33,650 --> 00:18:36,299 现在大家都在关注我们 573 00:18:36,460 --> 00:18:38,019 在避险市场时 574 00:18:38,019 --> 00:18:39,799 没人想持有Shopify股票 575 00:18:39,799 --> 00:18:40,779 没人 576 00:18:40,779 --> 00:18:44,059 在风险偏好市场时 577 00:18:44,059 --> 00:18:45,359 人们愿意冒险 578 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,039 Shopify是市场上最好的股票之一 579 00:18:48,039 --> 00:18:50,859 这就是为何要关注这支股票 580 00:18:50,859 --> 00:18:59,420 从2022年的25美元一路涨到三年后 581 00:18:59,420 --> 00:19:01,220 交易价接近180美元 582 00:19:01,220 --> 00:19:03,170 处于风险偏好市场 583 00:19:03,170 --> 00:19:05,269 人人都想持有Shopify 584 00:19:05,269 --> 00:19:06,670 当市场转向避险 585 00:19:06,670 --> 00:19:08,869 市场确实转向了 586 00:19:08,869 --> 00:19:10,630 会突然遭受重创 587 00:19:10,630 --> 00:19:12,230 从180跌至120 588 00:19:12,230 --> 00:19:13,529 在低位这里跌至 589 00:19:13,529 --> 00:19:14,920 约10美元 590 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,680 如果我们查看Shopify五年走势图 591 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,900 股价曾约170美元 592 00:19:19,900 --> 00:19:22,079 市场极度避险 593 00:19:22,079 --> 00:19:25,130 直接跌至25美元 594 00:19:25,609 --> 00:19:27,809 从170到25 595 00:19:27,809 --> 00:19:30,150 从25到180 596 00:19:30,150 --> 00:19:32,509 现在从180到120 597 00:19:32,509 --> 00:19:33,130 对吧 598 00:19:33,130 --> 00:19:35,950 所以要理解Shopify的特点 599 00:19:35,950 --> 00:19:37,109 它获得了Shopify 600 00:19:37,109 --> 00:19:37,769 呃 601 00:19:37,769 --> 00:19:40,769 你知道，软件股似乎已经见底了 602 00:19:40,769 --> 00:19:44,710 但让我暂时反驳这一点 603 00:19:44,710 --> 00:19:45,130 好的 604 00:19:45,130 --> 00:19:46,009 客户关系管理软件 605 00:19:46,009 --> 00:19:46,369 现在 606 00:19:46,369 --> 00:19:48,519 所有这些股票开始上涨 607 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:49,299 你知道的 608 00:19:49,299 --> 00:19:50,740 就在最近几个交易日 609 00:19:50,740 --> 00:19:51,819 我可以说是对的 610 00:19:51,819 --> 00:19:56,390 让我们调出Salesforce五日走势图 611 00:19:56,390 --> 00:19:59,440 让我们调出ServiceNow五日走势图 612 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,240 再调出Adobe的五日走势图 613 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:07,420 同时调出IGV软件指数五日走势图 614 00:20:07,420 --> 00:20:12,279 你可以清楚看到这些股票开始上涨了 615 00:20:12,279 --> 00:20:13,940 ServiceNow 616 00:20:13,940 --> 00:20:15,680 就在最近几个交易日 617 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:16,838 上涨了12点 618 00:20:16,838 --> 00:20:17,538 8% 619 00:20:17,538 --> 00:20:18,759 Adobe上涨了7点 620 00:20:18,759 --> 00:20:19,378 8% 621 00:20:19,378 --> 00:20:20,959 IGV指数上涨了7点 622 00:20:20,959 --> 00:20:21,598 2% 623 00:20:21,598 --> 00:20:23,019 Salesforce上涨6% 624 00:20:23,019 --> 00:20:23,558 没错 625 00:20:23,558 --> 00:20:30,250 看来这些股票可能已经见底 626 00:20:30,250 --> 00:20:32,690 但我要特别提醒 627 00:20:32,690 --> 00:20:38,279 如果市场进一步下跌，纳斯达克指数 628 00:20:38,279 --> 00:20:39,359 标普500指数 629 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,799 可能会再有一次大幅下挫 630 00:20:42,799 --> 00:20:44,779 我只是要说明这个风险 631 00:20:44,779 --> 00:20:46,759 如果我们没有最后一次下挫 632 00:20:46,759 --> 00:20:48,259 纳斯达克指数 633 00:20:48,259 --> 00:20:49,220 标普500指数 634 00:20:49,220 --> 00:20:51,939 可能出现10%或15%的跌幅 635 00:20:51,939 --> 00:20:53,659 从当前5%的区间 636 00:20:53,659 --> 00:20:55,490 如果当前价位 637 00:20:56,250 --> 00:20:57,289 如果这种情况不发生 638 00:20:58,329 --> 00:21:00,089 这些股票可能已经见底 639 00:21:00,089 --> 00:21:01,190 如果发生这种情况 640 00:21:01,190 --> 00:21:02,990 我们将迎来最后一次下挫 641 00:21:02,990 --> 00:21:05,450 然后确立底部 642 00:21:05,450 --> 00:21:07,109 随后开始逐步回升 643 00:21:07,109 --> 00:21:08,150 请记住 644 00:21:08,150 --> 00:21:09,069 并非所有股票都会如此 645 00:21:09,069 --> 00:21:10,109 部分股票可能表现不佳 646 00:21:10,109 --> 00:21:11,259 而其他股票则可能表现不同 647 00:21:11,259 --> 00:21:14,480 像ServiceNow显然目前表现突出 648 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,659 所以并非所有股票都会同步 649 00:21:16,659 --> 00:21:19,759 但其中有一大半已经严重受损 650 00:21:19,759 --> 00:21:23,809 价值投资者开始介入这些股票 651 00:21:23,809 --> 00:21:25,289 关键在于‘开始’ 652 00:21:25,289 --> 00:21:26,529 只是零星试探性买入 653 00:21:26,529 --> 00:21:27,150 现在 654 00:21:27,150 --> 00:21:29,809 这些股票即将迎来大量买入 655 00:21:29,809 --> 00:21:31,410 很可能在未来几年内 656 00:21:31,410 --> 00:21:32,859 所以请记住这一点 657 00:21:32,859 --> 00:21:37,138 我们来看看今天的持仓情况 658 00:21:37,138 --> 00:21:41,398 So Honest 今天表现最佳，涨至84 659 00:21:41,398 --> 00:21:43,138 就是这只股票 660 00:21:43,138 --> 00:21:44,479 这是一只波动性极强的股票 661 00:21:44,479 --> 00:21:47,098 So Honest 确实非常波动 662 00:21:47,098 --> 00:21:49,858 波动幅度巨大 663 00:21:49,858 --> 00:21:51,069 它 664 00:21:51,549 --> 00:21:55,150 我认为公司为今年剩余时间布局得很好 665 00:21:55,150 --> 00:21:56,410 以及未来几年 666 00:21:56,410 --> 00:21:57,769 但天啊 667 00:21:57,769 --> 00:22:00,049 你知道这已经持续了 668 00:22:00,049 --> 00:22:01,190 这确实很艰难 669 00:22:01,190 --> 00:22:02,670 这确实很艰难 670 00:22:02,670 --> 00:22:04,009 嗯 671 00:22:04,490 --> 00:22:07,150 但基本面越来越好 672 00:22:07,150 --> 00:22:07,970 我们正在讨论 673 00:22:07,970 --> 00:22:10,380 他们今年在调整后的利润率 674 00:22:10,380 --> 00:22:11,819 远超以往水平 675 00:22:11,819 --> 00:22:13,480 基本上是公司历史最高 676 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,339 至少在公司现代史上 677 00:22:16,339 --> 00:22:17,099 资产负债表 678 00:22:17,099 --> 00:22:17,579 堪称巨兽 679 00:22:17,579 --> 00:22:18,638 大规模回购 680 00:22:23,038 --> 00:22:23,959 如果你不关注我的主频道 681 00:22:23,959 --> 00:22:25,219 频道名为金融教育 682 00:22:25,219 --> 00:22:26,959 这是其中五只股票之一 683 00:22:28,598 --> 00:22:29,409 我现在买入 684 00:22:29,409 --> 00:22:32,128 2026年3月版 685 00:22:32,128 --> 00:22:32,669 好的 686 00:22:32,669 --> 00:22:33,929 相当好的机会 687 00:22:33,929 --> 00:22:34,528 就这方面而言 688 00:22:34,528 --> 00:22:38,009 Go t s l z 所以 689 00:22:38,009 --> 00:22:39,190 关于这只股票 690 00:22:39,190 --> 00:22:41,950 显然这是我对特斯拉的短期对冲 691 00:22:41,950 --> 00:22:45,269 我的LA持仓表现良好 692 00:22:45,269 --> 00:22:48,490 我们在公开市场两个仓位都上涨了 693 00:22:48,490 --> 00:22:49,869 计算这个 694 00:22:49,869 --> 00:22:52,849 我正在等待更多下跌信号 695 00:22:52,849 --> 00:22:54,450 更多下跌和标普500 696 00:22:54,450 --> 00:22:55,799 如果发生的话 697 00:22:55,799 --> 00:22:59,140 我打算撤出那笔资金并转移到其他地方 698 00:22:59,140 --> 00:23:01,690 对啊一根卷 699 00:23:01,690 --> 00:23:02,170 呃 700 00:23:02,170 --> 00:23:04,849 我们已经讨论过他们和相关软件了 701 00:23:04,849 --> 00:23:05,809 呃 702 00:23:05,809 --> 00:23:06,529 Shopify 703 00:23:06,529 --> 00:23:09,750 谈到过PayPal正在获得一些势头 704 00:23:09,750 --> 00:23:10,970 看到这个情况很好 705 00:23:10,970 --> 00:23:12,950 你知道那些关于... 706 00:23:12,950 --> 00:23:15,019 PayPal可能会被出售 707 00:23:15,019 --> 00:23:16,039 PayPal可能不会被出售 708 00:23:16,039 --> 00:23:17,400 这类报道总是不断出现 709 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:18,539 没错 710 00:23:19,369 --> 00:23:21,930 我觉得表面下有事情在发生 711 00:23:21,930 --> 00:23:22,390 现在 712 00:23:22,390 --> 00:23:23,109 PayPal 713 00:23:23,109 --> 00:23:24,849 我认为公司会否认这些 714 00:23:24,849 --> 00:23:28,115 没人想承认在关注PayPal 715 00:23:28,710 --> 00:23:30,170 为什么要承认自己... 716 00:23:30,170 --> 00:23:30,690 你知道的 717 00:23:30,690 --> 00:23:32,049 如果Stripe出来声明 718 00:23:32,049 --> 00:23:32,430 哦不 719 00:23:32,430 --> 00:23:34,029 我们没在关注他们 720 00:23:34,420 --> 00:23:36,599 这才是他们应该公开的说法 721 00:23:36,599 --> 00:23:38,220 这才是他们应该公开的说法 722 00:23:38,220 --> 00:23:39,680 不想让任何人知道 723 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:40,759 你在关注PayPal 724 00:23:40,759 --> 00:23:43,839 你在考虑收购他们的业务或整个公司 725 00:23:43,839 --> 00:23:47,799 你知道为什么因为这会推高股价 726 00:23:47,799 --> 00:23:49,440 然后你会难以获得批准 727 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:50,900 需董事会批准 728 00:23:50,900 --> 00:23:52,839 希望PayPal股价保持低位 729 00:23:52,839 --> 00:23:53,480 现在 730 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:54,970 保持在四十多 731 00:23:54,970 --> 00:23:57,230 然后一切顺利 732 00:23:57,230 --> 00:23:58,470 拿出你的报价 733 00:23:58,470 --> 00:23:59,390 或许七十美元 734 00:23:59,390 --> 00:24:00,349 或许七十五美元 735 00:24:00,349 --> 00:24:01,170 或许八十美元 736 00:24:01,170 --> 00:24:03,819 这样审批更容易 737 00:24:03,819 --> 00:24:07,339 假设PayPal股价开始上涨 738 00:24:07,339 --> 00:24:07,640 你知道的 739 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,900 股价重回六十多 740 00:24:09,900 --> 00:24:11,640 你以七十美元出价 741 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,769 股东可能不会通过 742 00:24:14,769 --> 00:24:15,450 你知道为什么 743 00:24:15,450 --> 00:24:19,159 因为股价现在只能涨十美元溢价 744 00:24:19,159 --> 00:24:21,358 但股价目前在四十多 745 00:24:21,358 --> 00:24:22,838 你出七十到七十五 746 00:24:22,838 --> 00:24:23,818 八十美元的报价 747 00:24:23,818 --> 00:24:24,638 看起来像是哇 748 00:24:24,638 --> 00:24:25,278 这太疯狂了 749 00:24:25,278 --> 00:24:27,839 这相当于六到八十个百分点的溢价 750 00:24:27,839 --> 00:24:29,769 这取决于你交易的地点 751 00:24:29,769 --> 00:24:33,690 所以我认为PayPal目前存在一些表面现象下的事情 752 00:24:33,690 --> 00:24:34,589 关于这些谈判 753 00:24:34,589 --> 00:24:35,609 我可能在这方面有误 754 00:24:35,609 --> 00:24:39,190 但我觉得确实存在并且我们开始看到一些迹象 755 00:24:39,190 --> 00:24:40,799 在价格动量中 756 00:24:40,799 --> 00:24:42,400 Palantir我们之前讨论过 757 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,660 它仍然像一只徘徊的股票 758 00:24:44,660 --> 00:24:46,200 过去一年表现良好 759 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:46,720 三七 760 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:48,180 但这是另一个大幅下跌的 761 00:24:48,180 --> 00:24:48,940 从高点 762 00:24:48,940 --> 00:24:51,440 高点在三二直线上十八 763 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,119 我觉得这是绝佳买入 764 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:55,599 我认为这是绝佳机会 765 00:24:55,599 --> 00:24:59,660 但你知道总是伴随风险所以我 766 00:24:59,660 --> 00:25:01,920 风险比普通企业更高所以我 767 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,529 因为它们与银行业相关 768 00:25:04,529 --> 00:25:06,390 所以存在贷款风险 769 00:25:06,390 --> 00:25:07,529 他们承担很多 770 00:25:07,529 --> 00:25:08,509 他们试图外包 771 00:25:08,509 --> 00:25:12,579 但最终股票总伴随风险 772 00:25:12,579 --> 00:25:14,650 凯特继续表现良好 773 00:25:14,650 --> 00:25:16,109 无论外界如何变化 774 00:25:16,109 --> 00:25:19,089 作为优质股票持续强势 775 00:25:19,089 --> 00:25:21,210 美国运通近期遭受重创 776 00:25:21,210 --> 00:25:22,750 我非常看好买入 777 00:25:22,750 --> 00:25:24,009 这一只触及高点 778 00:25:24,009 --> 00:25:27,640 三个月前达到三八十区间 779 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,789 现在美国运通三零七大幅折价 780 00:25:30,789 --> 00:25:34,750 这是我非常放心的公司 781 00:25:34,750 --> 00:25:37,589 买入并长期持有 782 00:25:37,589 --> 00:25:39,509 未来多年 783 00:25:39,509 --> 00:25:40,269 看未来前景 784 00:25:40,269 --> 00:25:41,029 市盈率十七 785 00:25:42,190 --> 00:25:45,109 我认为这是全球最安全的商业模式之一 786 00:25:45,109 --> 00:25:46,430 如何颠覆 787 00:25:46,430 --> 00:25:47,509 美国运通 788 00:25:47,509 --> 00:25:48,049 实际上 789 00:25:48,049 --> 00:25:49,450 如何做到 790 00:25:49,450 --> 00:25:51,549 AI会神奇颠覆吗 791 00:25:51,549 --> 00:25:53,029 当然不会 792 00:25:53,029 --> 00:25:57,250 而客户粘性极强 793 00:25:57,250 --> 00:25:59,369 他们愿意为信用卡付费 794 00:25:59,369 --> 00:26:00,789 猜猜谁是客户 795 00:26:00,789 --> 00:26:02,410 我就是他们的客户 796 00:26:02,410 --> 00:26:03,670 我认为这是金卡 797 00:26:03,670 --> 00:26:05,890 我妻子有一张超级昂贵的信用卡 798 00:26:05,890 --> 00:26:08,909 因为我想你们能获得更多休息室和其他设施的使用权 799 00:26:08,909 --> 00:26:10,709 一辆每年九百美元的车 800 00:26:10,709 --> 00:26:11,308 或者类似的东西 801 00:26:11,308 --> 00:26:14,450 所以像美国运通这样的公司 802 00:26:14,450 --> 00:26:14,670 比如 803 00:26:14,670 --> 00:26:15,630 这只是一个商业模式 804 00:26:15,630 --> 00:26:16,730 很难被颠覆 805 00:26:16,730 --> 00:26:18,250 但你不能直接闯入 806 00:26:18,250 --> 00:26:19,609 你知道的 807 00:26:19,609 --> 00:26:21,369 击败他们并提供所有他们提供的服务 808 00:26:21,369 --> 00:26:23,730 试图抢夺他们的用户和网络效应 809 00:26:23,730 --> 00:26:24,509 他们的营销 810 00:26:24,509 --> 00:26:25,670 我说奶酪 811 00:26:25,670 --> 00:26:26,730 他们已经掌握了 812 00:26:26,730 --> 00:26:26,990 兄弟 813 00:26:26,990 --> 00:26:27,990 他们真的掌握了 814 00:26:27,990 --> 00:26:29,210 所以用它来 815 00:26:29,210 --> 00:26:32,230 我几乎把它们看作麦当劳的商业模式 816 00:26:32,230 --> 00:26:33,569 这纯属运气 817 00:26:33,569 --> 00:26:33,950 你知道的 818 00:26:33,950 --> 00:26:34,309 祝你好运 819 00:26:34,309 --> 00:26:37,190 试图在他们擅长的领域击败他们 820 00:26:37,190 --> 00:26:38,269 他们确实很擅长 821 00:26:38,269 --> 00:26:40,609 所以我们要看这只股票 822 00:26:40,609 --> 00:26:41,450 明年 823 00:26:41,450 --> 00:26:41,950 收入增长 824 00:26:41,950 --> 00:26:44,450 明年预计增长9% 825 00:26:44,450 --> 00:26:45,390 每股收益增长 826 00:26:45,390 --> 00:26:46,690 13%以上 827 00:26:46,690 --> 00:26:48,388 我真的很喜欢美国运通 828 00:26:48,388 --> 00:26:50,628 市场严重低估的股票 829 00:26:50,628 --> 00:26:56,009 提到亚马逊圣诞精灵是一个绝佳的买入机会 830 00:26:56,009 --> 00:26:58,109 你知道这个也很波动 831 00:26:58,109 --> 00:26:58,930 看看过去一年 832 00:26:58,930 --> 00:26:59,849 上涨了27% 833 00:26:59,849 --> 00:27:01,049 但它波动剧烈 834 00:27:01,049 --> 00:27:04,119 我说股价最低49美元 835 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,000 最高曾达146美元 836 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,819 现在在81美元 837 00:27:08,819 --> 00:27:13,200 过去一年股价波动剧烈 838 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,180 犹如过山车 839 00:27:15,180 --> 00:27:15,819 然而 840 00:27:15,819 --> 00:27:17,819 这是市场最佳股票之一 841 00:27:17,819 --> 00:27:19,799 如果能在合理价位入手 842 00:27:19,799 --> 00:27:21,539 绝对是优质股票 843 00:27:21,539 --> 00:27:24,279 我相信未来几年会涨到200美元 844 00:27:24,279 --> 00:27:27,509 今天是个绝佳买入时机 845 00:27:27,509 --> 00:27:28,670 我应该买入一些 846 00:27:28,670 --> 00:27:29,869 今天本该买入一些 847 00:27:29,869 --> 00:27:30,470 我有点生气 848 00:27:30,470 --> 00:27:30,750 我没有 849 00:27:30,750 --> 00:27:31,690 我本该买些股票 850 00:27:31,690 --> 00:27:33,549 我可能这几天会买些精灵股 851 00:27:33,549 --> 00:27:36,150 我觉得这只是一个钢铁交易 852 00:27:36,150 --> 00:27:38,529 我们讨论了谷歌麦道加尔度假村 853 00:27:38,529 --> 00:27:39,309 所以这就是一个 854 00:27:39,309 --> 00:27:44,170 我最近已向私人股票群组通报了情况 855 00:27:44,170 --> 00:27:45,490 所以是的 856 00:27:45,490 --> 00:27:47,089 现在大幅下跌了 857 00:27:47,089 --> 00:27:48,549 就在前几天交易中 858 00:27:48,549 --> 00:27:50,690 过去几天交易中下跌了 859 00:27:50,690 --> 00:27:52,009 看啊七个点 860 00:27:52,009 --> 00:27:53,179 七个百分之七 861 00:27:53,179 --> 00:27:54,979 这意味着绝佳买入时机 862 00:27:54,979 --> 00:27:55,419 呃 863 00:27:55,419 --> 00:27:57,298 我们稍后会再讨论这个 864 00:27:57,298 --> 00:28:00,519 但几天前我发过这条 865 00:28:00,519 --> 00:28:02,400 在我的预备股票群组Discord聊天 866 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,900 我说风能可能上午大幅下跌 867 00:28:04,900 --> 00:28:06,099 这是三月一日的记录 868 00:28:06,099 --> 00:28:08,099 因中东局势发布此消息 869 00:28:08,099 --> 00:28:09,160 自二零二七年以来 870 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:10,659 中东地产即将来临 871 00:28:10,659 --> 00:28:15,700 市场可能得出中东旅游暂时停滞的结论 872 00:28:15,700 --> 00:28:19,039 这就是必须处理的问题 873 00:28:19,039 --> 00:28:20,900 所以你知道的 874 00:28:20,900 --> 00:28:24,000 其实世界变化很快 875 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:25,329 就像你知道的 876 00:28:25,329 --> 00:28:26,250 我现在明白 877 00:28:26,250 --> 00:28:28,430 这是热门话题 878 00:28:28,430 --> 00:28:29,369 大家都在谈论 879 00:28:29,369 --> 00:28:30,309 正在观察它 880 00:28:30,309 --> 00:28:33,319 但一年后 881 00:28:33,319 --> 00:28:33,940 谁知道呢 882 00:28:33,940 --> 00:28:34,660 这可能成旧闻 883 00:28:34,660 --> 00:28:35,940 或许仍在持续 884 00:28:35,940 --> 00:28:36,859 或许更糟了 885 00:28:36,859 --> 00:28:37,848 但总之 886 00:28:37,848 --> 00:28:40,709 我说的是世界变化快不要惊讶 887 00:28:40,709 --> 00:28:42,969 一年后人们可能忘了这件事 888 00:28:42,969 --> 00:28:44,608 市场每天都有大事发生 889 00:28:44,608 --> 00:28:46,019 像这种大事 890 00:28:46,019 --> 00:28:47,180 大家都在热议 891 00:28:47,180 --> 00:28:48,900 过一两年后 892 00:28:48,900 --> 00:28:49,420 你会想等等 893 00:28:49,420 --> 00:28:51,819 当时发生了什么我怎么记得 894 00:28:51,819 --> 00:28:52,420 哦对啊 895 00:28:52,420 --> 00:28:55,049 我知道这种情况经常发生 896 00:28:55,049 --> 00:28:56,349 艾拉·劳德 897 00:28:56,349 --> 00:28:59,809 这里以不到一百美元的价格买入，还有一份钢制优惠 898 00:28:59,809 --> 00:29:02,750 始终记住这一点，尤其是在艾斯特劳德 899 00:29:02,750 --> 00:29:05,369 如果你长期看好这些企业 900 00:29:05,369 --> 00:29:06,579 没错，这 901 00:29:06,579 --> 00:29:08,980 这些是代代相传的优质企业 902 00:29:08,980 --> 00:29:09,920 年复一年 903 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,920 没错，他们在高端美妆品牌领域深耕 904 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:13,819 还有高端度假村 905 00:29:13,819 --> 00:29:14,900 凭借其高端度假村 906 00:29:14,900 --> 00:29:17,079 还有拉斯维加斯和澳门 907 00:29:17,079 --> 00:29:19,190 他们还在中东建造新项目 908 00:29:19,190 --> 00:29:20,509 我说这些只是 909 00:29:20,509 --> 00:29:21,089 你知道的 910 00:29:21,089 --> 00:29:22,410 这些股票堪称优质标的 911 00:29:22,410 --> 00:29:24,289 任何时候以百元内价格出现 912 00:29:24,289 --> 00:29:25,670 必须买入 913 00:29:25,670 --> 00:29:27,150 如果能拿到低价 914 00:29:27,150 --> 00:29:28,089 以百元内价格购入 915 00:29:28,089 --> 00:29:29,150 必须满仓买入 916 00:29:29,150 --> 00:29:30,210 基本上就这样 917 00:29:30,210 --> 00:29:31,750 这就是这些股票 918 00:29:31,750 --> 00:29:32,589 耐克这里 919 00:29:32,589 --> 00:29:34,170 59号绝佳价值 920 00:29:34,170 --> 00:29:35,269 超值交易 921 00:29:35,269 --> 00:29:35,710 嗯 922 00:29:35,710 --> 00:29:36,190 我们之前讨论过 923 00:29:36,190 --> 00:29:36,910 早些时候的AMD 924 00:29:36,910 --> 00:29:37,910 雪乐斯股价跌破五十 925 00:29:37,910 --> 00:29:38,890 我喜欢这个 926 00:29:38,890 --> 00:29:41,509 这些股票已覆盖完毕 927 00:29:41,509 --> 00:29:42,029 呃 928 00:29:42,029 --> 00:29:42,930 房地产股票 929 00:29:42,930 --> 00:29:45,440 关注房地产股票动向 930 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:47,900 股价暴跌至六十 931 00:29:47,900 --> 00:29:49,599 哎呀 932 00:29:49,599 --> 00:29:50,440 哎呀 933 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:51,680 这让我很感兴趣 934 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,000 六十 935 00:29:55,039 --> 00:29:56,319 跌至六十 936 00:29:56,319 --> 00:29:58,119 天啊 937 00:29:59,299 --> 00:30:00,759 听我说洗衣机 938 00:30:00,759 --> 00:30:02,880 烘干机和家电很乏味 939 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:07,969 但惠而浦跌至六十 940 00:30:08,930 --> 00:30:10,210 天啊 941 00:30:10,210 --> 00:30:12,680 我可能得介入 942 00:30:13,319 --> 00:30:14,680 我可能得介入 943 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,240 因为我认为我们已到达 944 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,490 我认为这是个人观点 945 00:30:21,490 --> 00:30:23,529 综合所有分析 946 00:30:23,529 --> 00:30:26,289 我相信房地产市场已见底 947 00:30:26,289 --> 00:30:28,299 此刻我们正在说话 948 00:30:28,299 --> 00:30:28,859 好的 949 00:30:28,859 --> 00:30:33,079 我认为在音量方面它已经不能再更糟了 950 00:30:33,079 --> 00:30:34,220 价格总是会波动 951 00:30:34,220 --> 00:30:37,029 但就交易量而言就像没人动销 952 00:30:37,029 --> 00:30:38,490 没人表现得那么糟糕 953 00:30:38,490 --> 00:30:40,549 我们仿佛回到了金融危机时期 954 00:30:40,549 --> 00:30:42,170 甚至比2008年金融危机更糟 955 00:30:42,170 --> 00:30:42,670 输入数字 956 00:30:42,670 --> 00:30:44,109 就像没人动销 957 00:30:44,109 --> 00:30:46,190 对商业模式来说最糟糕的事 958 00:30:46,190 --> 00:30:47,910 就像惠而浦和家电制造商 959 00:30:47,910 --> 00:30:48,230 没错 960 00:30:48,230 --> 00:30:50,190 需要人们流动时才能流动 961 00:30:50,190 --> 00:30:50,589 好的 962 00:30:50,589 --> 00:30:52,230 现在他们开始考虑购买新洗衣机 963 00:30:52,230 --> 00:30:53,470 新烘干机或新冰箱 964 00:30:53,470 --> 00:30:54,029 新烤箱 965 00:30:54,029 --> 00:30:57,660 这样那样的事情，就是这样 966 00:30:59,619 --> 00:31:03,170 我认为现在房地产市场见底了 967 00:31:03,170 --> 00:31:06,200 我觉得随着今年进展房地产市场会冻结 968 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,180 并在2027年进一步好转，2028年更佳 969 00:31:09,180 --> 00:31:11,730 我认为这对惠而浦来说是件好事 970 00:31:11,730 --> 00:31:13,369 所以我看着股价，心想 971 00:31:13,369 --> 00:31:15,569 股价是60美元 972 00:31:17,740 --> 00:31:18,299 我说 973 00:31:18,299 --> 00:31:19,880 这生意并不太吸引人 974 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:21,000 我们都知道这个 975 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,569 不过说真的 976 00:31:24,049 --> 00:31:25,829 我有点想投资惠而浦 977 00:31:25,829 --> 00:31:28,009 难道不是吗 978 00:31:28,009 --> 00:31:29,470 这对我来说是个难题 979 00:31:29,470 --> 00:31:31,410 这确实很难 980 00:31:31,410 --> 00:31:33,789 如果它跌到50美元区间 981 00:31:33,789 --> 00:31:36,170 我可能得采取行动 982 00:31:36,499 --> 00:31:37,098 是的 983 00:31:37,098 --> 00:31:38,898 AI不会颠覆这个行业 984 00:31:38,898 --> 00:31:39,558 没错 985 00:31:39,558 --> 00:31:41,759 RH下跌了15.5% 986 00:31:41,759 --> 00:31:42,638 哎呀 987 00:31:42,638 --> 00:31:44,199 我最近一直在关注RH 988 00:31:44,199 --> 00:31:46,848 15.5%的跌幅真糟糕 989 00:31:48,648 --> 00:31:51,710 哎呀 990 00:31:52,349 --> 00:31:53,230 但问题在于 991 00:31:53,230 --> 00:31:54,769 我更想要RH 992 00:31:54,769 --> 00:31:57,369 还是更想要惠而浦 993 00:31:57,809 --> 00:32:01,730 这两家公司客户群体完全不同 994 00:32:01,730 --> 00:32:02,970 没错 995 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,059 供你参考 996 00:32:06,059 --> 00:32:07,980 我现在正在建房子 997 00:32:07,980 --> 00:32:11,789 我们刚为新房子花钱买了家具 998 00:32:11,789 --> 00:32:16,638 我们在rh那里花了两万美元 999 00:32:16,638 --> 00:32:19,798 两万美元 1000 00:32:19,970 --> 00:32:23,250 我觉得这笔费用都要记在美国运通信用卡上 1001 00:32:23,250 --> 00:32:25,730 如果你是美国运通股东或股东 1002 00:32:25,730 --> 00:32:26,650 务必给我一个 1003 00:32:26,650 --> 00:32:27,490 谢谢你的信息 1004 00:32:27,490 --> 00:32:29,174 好的嗯 1005 00:32:29,890 --> 00:32:30,809 我很好奇 1006 00:32:31,849 --> 00:32:32,809 我很好奇 1007 00:32:34,450 --> 00:32:34,690 哦 1008 00:32:34,690 --> 00:32:36,279 我很好奇 1009 00:32:36,759 --> 00:32:37,720 我的重点是 1010 00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:39,119 我更想要rh还是 1011 00:32:39,119 --> 00:32:42,339 还是更想要惠而浦 1012 00:32:43,740 --> 00:32:44,920 谁更硬核 1013 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,740 谁更硬核 1014 00:32:47,380 --> 00:32:48,920 哦天啊 1015 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,460 我完全可以平分这些 1016 00:32:50,460 --> 00:32:52,660 假设我现在要买入这些股票 1017 00:32:52,660 --> 00:32:54,380 我可以直接参与 1018 00:32:54,729 --> 00:32:56,628 我觉得可能得这么做 1019 00:32:56,628 --> 00:32:59,509 我可能得坚持到底去做 1020 00:33:00,150 --> 00:33:00,890 听着兄弟 1021 00:33:00,890 --> 00:33:05,130 我坚信当前房地产市场成交量已见底 1022 00:33:05,130 --> 00:33:06,109 就在这当下 1023 00:33:06,109 --> 00:33:07,609 今年上半年 1024 00:33:07,609 --> 00:33:10,170 我坚信未来几年 1025 00:33:10,170 --> 00:33:13,029 房地产市场将回暖 1026 00:33:14,579 --> 00:33:14,980 比如 1027 00:33:14,980 --> 00:33:15,339 我认为 1028 00:33:15,339 --> 00:33:16,380 两三年后 1029 00:33:16,380 --> 00:33:18,579 我们可能会再次谈论火热的房地产市场，那时 1030 00:33:18,579 --> 00:33:20,660 人们四处搬迁 1031 00:33:22,599 --> 00:33:26,400 而如今没人搬家，我真是感慨 1032 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:30,960 人口流动对rh和惠而浦这样的公司来说是最好消息 1033 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:32,000 嗯 1034 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:35,099 嗯 1035 00:33:35,099 --> 00:33:37,200 这确实难选 1036 00:33:37,839 --> 00:33:40,440 你可能会问为什么我对rh感兴趣 1037 00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:42,440 为什么选择rh或惠而浦这类公司而非 1038 00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:43,579 比如托尔兄弟 1039 00:33:43,579 --> 00:33:44,779 没错 1040 00:33:44,779 --> 00:33:45,819 托尔兄弟未受冲击 1041 00:33:45,819 --> 00:33:48,900 这些股票曾受重创，而rh几年前 1042 00:33:48,900 --> 00:33:50,599 当他们的商业模式鼎盛时 1043 00:33:50,599 --> 00:33:52,880 股价曾高达七百美元 1044 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:54,660 现在仅一百五十五美元 1045 00:33:54,660 --> 00:33:55,960 惠而浦曾是股价 1046 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,700 几年前两三百美元的股票 1047 00:33:59,700 --> 00:34:01,628 让我们看看旋风旋转 1048 00:34:01,628 --> 00:34:02,068 是的 1049 00:34:02,068 --> 00:34:04,469 当房地产市场火热时有一只股票 1050 00:34:04,469 --> 00:34:05,608 回溯到2021年 1051 00:34:05,608 --> 00:34:05,949 没错 1052 00:34:06,949 --> 00:34:09,389 这里每天两万五千六百美元 1053 00:34:09,389 --> 00:34:11,909 因此这些股票在 1054 00:34:11,909 --> 00:34:12,248 你知道的 1055 00:34:12,248 --> 00:34:12,929 遭受冲击 1056 00:34:12,929 --> 00:34:14,278 此外 1057 00:34:14,278 --> 00:34:16,079 说到像托尔兄弟公司这类 1058 00:34:16,079 --> 00:34:17,938 托尔兄弟公司的问题 1059 00:34:17,938 --> 00:34:19,039 这一点非常重要 1060 00:34:19,039 --> 00:34:20,139 每个人都明白这一点 1061 00:34:20,139 --> 00:34:23,498 如果未来两三年房地产市场升温 1062 00:34:23,498 --> 00:34:24,338 我们买下了这个 1063 00:34:24,338 --> 00:34:26,349 接下来两三年情况会更好 1064 00:34:26,349 --> 00:34:28,730 但这未必对托尔兄弟有利 1065 00:34:28,730 --> 00:34:34,019 因为可能带来更多现有库存挂牌 1066 00:34:34,019 --> 00:34:37,179 没错，这样内部动量会增强 1067 00:34:37,179 --> 00:34:40,778 人们未必优先考虑新房 1068 00:34:40,778 --> 00:34:41,539 请注意 1069 00:34:41,539 --> 00:34:42,818 这些新房开发商已经 1070 00:34:42,818 --> 00:34:46,418 大量使用激励措施和房贷利率策略 1071 00:34:46,418 --> 00:34:49,139 如首付优惠等可能不再重要 1072 00:34:49,139 --> 00:34:51,920 如果我们能把十年期降至3%以下 1073 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,360 并让房贷利率进入5%区间 1074 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,179 我本人刚刚锁定5.75% 1075 00:34:57,179 --> 00:34:58,340 这个利率很划算 1076 00:34:58,340 --> 00:35:00,980 我觉得上周最后一周锁定的 1077 00:35:00,980 --> 00:35:02,760 这个利率在 1078 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:03,619 当前时间段 1079 00:35:03,619 --> 00:35:05,239 显然与首期相比 1080 00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,619 我的其他房产如3%利率 1081 00:35:07,619 --> 00:35:08,920 看起来高得离谱 1082 00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:09,820 但近期而言 1083 00:35:09,820 --> 00:35:10,739 5.75% 1084 00:35:10,739 --> 00:35:12,780 三十年固定房贷你会选择 1085 00:35:12,780 --> 00:35:14,500 嗯 1086 00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:16,480 天啊 1087 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:17,400 我在想rh 1088 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,639 我在想 whirlpool 哎呀 1089 00:35:21,630 --> 00:35:22,070 哎呀 1090 00:35:24,789 --> 00:35:26,550 我可能得这么做 1091 00:35:27,699 --> 00:35:29,579 我们看看再说 1092 00:35:29,579 --> 00:35:31,190 天啊 1093 00:35:31,190 --> 00:35:32,389 科技巨头 1094 00:35:32,389 --> 00:35:32,789 哦 1095 00:35:32,789 --> 00:35:33,489 这就是我们开始的地方 1096 00:35:33,489 --> 00:35:35,590 今天我们从科技股观察名单开始 1097 00:35:35,590 --> 00:35:37,590 查看零售交易者类型的股票 1098 00:35:37,590 --> 00:35:38,010 啊 1099 00:35:38,010 --> 00:35:41,409 hymns 依然处于艰难境地 1100 00:35:41,409 --> 00:35:43,010 在这只股票上投入十五美元 1101 00:35:43,010 --> 00:35:47,349 微悲剧同样陷入艰难局面 1102 00:35:47,349 --> 00:35:48,769 跌至132点 1103 00:35:48,769 --> 00:35:50,670 该股仍处于低迷状态 1104 00:35:50,670 --> 00:35:53,030 这只股票定格在76美元 1105 00:35:53,030 --> 00:35:54,889 他们的商业模式改善显著 1106 00:35:54,889 --> 00:35:56,800 简直是天壤之别 1107 00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,880 嗯，小灵犬回升至百美元 1108 00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:00,280 另外 1109 00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,818 这对小灵犬来说是个好消息 1110 00:36:02,818 --> 00:36:03,498 好的 1111 00:36:03,498 --> 00:36:05,800 股票讨论到此结束 1112 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,079 我们无需深入更多 1113 00:36:08,079 --> 00:36:08,519 呃 1114 00:36:08,519 --> 00:36:10,480 这是我想在回应汤姆·李之前展示的 1115 00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:11,860 还有这个视频 1116 00:36:11,860 --> 00:36:13,579 这次我发布了我的预研股票群组 1117 00:36:13,579 --> 00:36:14,420 再次回到Discord聊天室 1118 00:36:14,420 --> 00:36:15,079 如果你想申请 1119 00:36:15,079 --> 00:36:15,980 加入我的预研股票群组 1120 00:36:15,980 --> 00:36:17,539 想要获取会员卡 1121 00:36:17,539 --> 00:36:18,980 千倍会员卡 1122 00:36:18,980 --> 00:36:20,019 哇看这个 1123 00:36:20,019 --> 00:36:21,679 这是2024版的 1124 00:36:21,679 --> 00:36:23,280 想要加入私密股票群组 1125 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,269 哦这是2026年会员卡 1126 00:36:26,269 --> 00:36:28,309 私密群组的专属会员卡 1127 00:36:28,309 --> 00:36:30,369 若终身加入我们 1128 00:36:30,369 --> 00:36:32,710 可获得黑卡 1129 00:36:32,710 --> 00:36:33,510 哇 1130 00:36:33,510 --> 00:36:34,849 这张太漂亮了 1131 00:36:34,849 --> 00:36:36,710 同样很美 1132 00:36:36,710 --> 00:36:39,590 终身加入即可获得三张卡片 1133 00:36:39,590 --> 00:36:42,018 但我说过 1134 00:36:42,018 --> 00:36:43,679 你知道这不应该 1135 00:36:43,679 --> 00:36:44,579 我要展示的内容是 1136 00:36:44,579 --> 00:36:46,998 这不应改变你的看法 1137 00:36:46,998 --> 00:36:48,179 作为长期投资者 1138 00:36:48,179 --> 00:36:48,378 没错 1139 00:36:48,378 --> 00:36:49,318 坚持你的策略 1140 00:36:49,318 --> 00:36:56,940 但至少需意识到三月堪称疯狂 1141 00:36:56,940 --> 00:36:57,860 过去几年 1142 00:36:57,860 --> 00:36:59,858 简直疯狂至极 1143 00:36:59,858 --> 00:37:00,539 看看这个 1144 00:37:00,539 --> 00:37:02,018 这是标普500指数走势 1145 00:37:02,018 --> 00:37:03,599 2022年啊 1146 00:37:03,599 --> 00:37:04,619 三月上涨了三点 1147 00:37:04,619 --> 00:37:05,380 5%的化学路径 1148 00:37:05,380 --> 00:37:07,340 2022年对市场来说是个垃圾年份 1149 00:37:07,340 --> 00:37:09,179 但 somehow 三月却表现极佳 1150 00:37:09,179 --> 00:37:13,840 2023年是市场绝佳的月份 1151 00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:18,800 2024年实现3.5%涨幅，随后2024年又涨3.1% 1152 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,440 接下来的年份显然我们开始经历全面解放 1153 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:22,840 每日戏剧性事件和所有这些 1154 00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:24,159 这些情况直到四月才出现 1155 00:37:24,159 --> 00:37:26,900 但在到达那个日期前已有很多戏剧性事件 1156 00:37:26,900 --> 00:37:27,500 没错 1157 00:37:27,500 --> 00:37:30,320 三月走势下跌5.75% 1158 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:31,059 五点七五个百分点 1159 00:37:31,059 --> 00:37:34,460 这对标普500指数来说是一月内的巨大波动 1160 00:37:34,460 --> 00:37:35,630 这些波动规模巨大 1161 00:37:35,630 --> 00:37:37,010 所以请记住 1162 00:37:37,010 --> 00:37:41,068 三月可能是个极好或极差的月份 1163 00:37:41,068 --> 00:37:42,568 没有超高概率 1164 00:37:42,568 --> 00:37:44,349 可能只是平淡的月份 1165 00:37:44,349 --> 00:37:46,068 将充满戏剧性事件 1166 00:37:46,068 --> 00:37:49,530 进入月份前需留意这些情况 1167 00:37:49,530 --> 00:37:50,090 但正如我所说 1168 00:37:50,090 --> 00:37:51,269 坚持你的计划 1169 00:37:51,269 --> 00:37:53,329 我坚持每周买入 1170 00:37:53,329 --> 00:37:54,179 我 1171 00:37:54,179 --> 00:37:55,300 我将继续买入股票 1172 00:37:55,300 --> 00:37:55,800 本周五 1173 00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:57,260 上周五我买入了股票 1174 00:37:57,260 --> 00:37:59,500 每周五在我的私密群组内操作 1175 00:37:59,500 --> 00:38:03,059 所有成员都能看到我的每周买入操作 1176 00:38:03,059 --> 00:38:04,980 所有Patreon成员都能看到这一点 1177 00:38:04,980 --> 00:38:07,820 然后每周五都会买入 1178 00:38:07,820 --> 00:38:11,500 只要周五市场开放，我的私有组合也会操作 1179 00:38:11,500 --> 00:38:13,730 所以我直接执行 1180 00:38:13,730 --> 00:38:14,150 你知道的 1181 00:38:14,150 --> 00:38:15,630 无论是否疯狂的月份 1182 00:38:15,630 --> 00:38:17,199 保持心理准备很重要 1183 00:38:17,199 --> 00:38:18,400 三月真是疯狂 1184 00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,260 这真是疯狂的月份 1185 00:38:20,260 --> 00:38:21,059 汤姆·李 1186 00:38:21,059 --> 00:38:23,818 CBC的贡献者可能已完成 1187 00:38:23,818 --> 00:38:24,219 呃 1188 00:38:24,219 --> 00:38:25,418 显然 1189 00:38:25,418 --> 00:38:27,259 更多直线式波动 1190 00:38:27,259 --> 00:38:29,358 或许现在正在上演 1191 00:38:29,358 --> 00:38:32,829 在类似历史事件中 1192 00:38:32,829 --> 00:38:34,869 每次发生时 1193 00:38:34,869 --> 00:38:36,309 我们总是说 1194 00:38:36,309 --> 00:38:37,568 在过往案例中 1195 00:38:37,568 --> 00:38:38,309 它从未 1196 00:38:38,309 --> 00:38:40,309 从未持续太久 1197 00:38:40,309 --> 00:38:44,228 关于是否留在市场或退出市场的决策 1198 00:38:44,228 --> 00:38:48,329 通常保持现状是正确的选择 1199 00:38:48,329 --> 00:38:49,548 没错 1200 00:38:49,548 --> 00:38:51,289 我来告诉你市场如何看待这个问题 1201 00:38:51,289 --> 00:38:51,628 好的 1202 00:38:51,628 --> 00:38:52,710 听着 1203 00:38:52,710 --> 00:38:53,989 市场正在关注这一点 1204 00:38:53,989 --> 00:38:59,050 这与去年第四季度市场看待政府停摆的情况非常相似 1205 00:38:59,050 --> 00:39:01,090 市场似乎认为这不会发生 1206 00:39:01,090 --> 00:39:01,929 然后又说 1207 00:39:01,929 --> 00:39:02,570 如果真的发生 1208 00:39:02,570 --> 00:39:03,690 只会短暂持续 1209 00:39:03,690 --> 00:39:04,889 然后市场继续发展 1210 00:39:04,889 --> 00:39:06,690 我们开始出现实际的疲软 1211 00:39:06,690 --> 00:39:07,110 在市场中 1212 00:39:07,110 --> 00:39:07,429 没错 1213 00:39:07,429 --> 00:39:09,090 这就是当前的情况 1214 00:39:09,090 --> 00:39:11,090 我认为市场正在试图忽略这一点 1215 00:39:11,090 --> 00:39:12,530 因为它只是短期问题 1216 00:39:12,530 --> 00:39:14,710 但持续时间越长 1217 00:39:14,710 --> 00:39:18,980 人们就会开始担忧 1218 00:39:18,980 --> 00:39:19,139 哦 1219 00:39:19,139 --> 00:39:20,539 这可能变成长期问题 1220 00:39:20,539 --> 00:39:22,980 这不是短暂的进出 1221 00:39:22,980 --> 00:39:25,659 人们开始担心油价 1222 00:39:25,659 --> 00:39:27,820 如果油价持续上涨 1223 00:39:28,929 --> 00:39:29,429 是的 1224 00:39:29,429 --> 00:39:29,849 你可能会 1225 00:39:29,849 --> 00:39:31,710 这里会迅速出现大量担忧 1226 00:39:31,710 --> 00:39:33,769 所以你知道只是堆积起来 1227 00:39:33,769 --> 00:39:41,010 我说没人喜欢看到爆炸和战争的画面 1228 00:39:41,010 --> 00:39:43,929 因此风险溢价上升 1229 00:39:43,929 --> 00:39:45,398 这就是VIX指数上涨的原因 1230 00:39:45,398 --> 00:39:49,478 但这不会改变美国的基本面 1231 00:39:49,478 --> 00:39:54,789 过去市场在紧张前往往下跌 1232 00:39:54,789 --> 00:39:59,050 而一旦冲突开始反而表现更好 1233 00:39:59,050 --> 00:40:01,289 我认为这次也会类似 1234 00:40:02,409 --> 00:40:03,829 我们需要全面观察 1235 00:40:03,829 --> 00:40:04,829 尤其是黄金 1236 00:40:04,829 --> 00:40:07,309 收益率曲线 1237 00:40:07,309 --> 00:40:08,730 嗯还有 1238 00:40:08,730 --> 00:40:10,170 但就油价而言 1239 00:40:10,170 --> 00:40:11,050 当然油价 1240 00:40:11,050 --> 00:40:11,969 但 1241 00:40:11,969 --> 00:40:13,539 这不会影响我们 1242 00:40:13,539 --> 00:40:14,980 当前经济状况 1243 00:40:14,980 --> 00:40:18,710 但或许未来某个情景 1244 00:40:18,710 --> 00:40:20,070 可能会发生 1245 00:40:20,070 --> 00:40:20,570 是的 1246 00:40:20,570 --> 00:40:20,869 我说 1247 00:40:20,869 --> 00:40:23,070 我认为许多专家会担心 1248 00:40:23,070 --> 00:40:25,199 这你知道的 1249 00:40:25,199 --> 00:40:26,820 可能引发更大冲突 1250 00:40:26,820 --> 00:40:28,858 你知道的可能会是 1251 00:40:28,858 --> 00:40:29,579 你知道的 1252 00:40:29,579 --> 00:40:31,478 像二战那样的事对吧 1253 00:40:31,478 --> 00:40:33,358 但如果没有这种情况 1254 00:40:33,358 --> 00:40:37,079 我认为本周最糟糕的情况即将发生 1255 00:40:37,079 --> 00:40:38,280 你知道的 1256 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,719 我预计三月将是股市上涨月份 1257 00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,000 油价会如何变化 1258 00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,480 这一直是巨大利好 1259 00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,800 油价降低对经济的好处 1260 00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,619 汤姆·李的重磅声明 1261 00:40:50,619 --> 00:40:53,099 三月将是股市上涨月份 1262 00:40:53,099 --> 00:40:53,840 重大声明 1263 00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:58,150 或者我意识到我们自给自足 1264 00:40:58,150 --> 00:40:59,610 但许多国家做不到 1265 00:40:59,610 --> 00:41:00,369 以中国为例 1266 00:41:00,369 --> 00:41:01,710 以印度为例 1267 00:41:01,710 --> 00:41:02,469 呃 1268 00:41:02,469 --> 00:41:04,780 日本有没有这个情况 1269 00:41:04,780 --> 00:41:05,059 哦 1270 00:41:05,059 --> 00:41:07,920 顺便说一下关于季节性趋势的重要点 1271 00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,579 听我说只要三月好或坏 1272 00:41:11,579 --> 00:41:12,980 不要得出结论认为 1273 00:41:12,980 --> 00:41:13,260 哦 1274 00:41:13,260 --> 00:41:14,760 今年会是好年或坏年 1275 00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:15,300 例如 1276 00:41:15,300 --> 00:41:17,340 2022年市场表现糟糕 1277 00:41:17,340 --> 00:41:17,679 没错 1278 00:41:17,679 --> 00:41:19,260 标普500指数全年下跌约20 1279 00:41:19,260 --> 00:41:21,130 全年下跌20% 1280 00:41:21,650 --> 00:41:22,489 糟糕的一年 1281 00:41:22,489 --> 00:41:24,389 但三月表现极佳 1282 00:41:24,389 --> 00:41:25,440 与此同时 1283 00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:26,119 嗯 1284 00:41:26,119 --> 00:41:26,480 你知道的 1285 00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:27,239 看看去年 1286 00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:28,980 去年市场表现极佳 1287 00:41:28,980 --> 00:41:30,719 但三月肯定不是 1288 00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:31,500 你知道的 1289 00:41:31,500 --> 00:41:33,969 标普500指数下跌近6% 1290 00:41:33,969 --> 00:41:34,530 哦 1291 00:41:34,530 --> 00:41:35,190 天啊 1292 00:41:35,190 --> 00:41:39,010 你知道三月是史上最差月份 1293 00:41:39,010 --> 00:41:41,500 但最终全年市场表现良好 1294 00:41:41,500 --> 00:41:46,119 这不仅是史上最差月份之一 1295 00:41:46,119 --> 00:41:51,400 实际上这是近三年最差月份 1296 00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:53,000 女士们先生们 1297 00:41:53,579 --> 00:41:55,699 然而它依然如此 1298 00:41:55,699 --> 00:41:57,019 千万不要过早下结论 1299 00:41:57,019 --> 00:41:58,679 如果三月最终成为糟糕的月份 1300 00:41:58,679 --> 00:42:00,699 不要认为市场全盘皆输 1301 00:42:00,699 --> 00:42:03,300 如果三月成为市场大好月份 1302 00:42:03,300 --> 00:42:05,119 不要假设我们没有阵痛 1303 00:42:05,119 --> 00:42:06,380 可能出现在下半年 1304 00:42:06,380 --> 00:42:07,019 或者类似的情况 1305 00:42:07,019 --> 00:42:07,420 总之不要 1306 00:42:07,420 --> 00:42:07,960 你知道的 1307 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:08,940 匆忙下结论 1308 00:42:08,940 --> 00:42:10,610 因为很多人会这样做 1309 00:42:10,610 --> 00:42:12,010 成本会更高 1310 00:42:12,010 --> 00:42:13,750 如果中国成本更高 1311 00:42:13,750 --> 00:42:16,119 这将传导至全球 1312 00:42:16,119 --> 00:42:16,820 是的 1313 00:42:16,820 --> 00:42:17,199 我是说 1314 00:42:17,199 --> 00:42:19,599 油价将引发价格冲击 1315 00:42:19,599 --> 00:42:20,760 因为石油 1316 00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,920 它遍布整个经济供应链 1317 00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,440 我们生产的产品现在卖到72美元 1318 00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,039 即使我们拥有足够资源 1319 00:42:30,039 --> 00:42:32,119 但石油公司显然会获利 1320 00:42:32,119 --> 00:42:39,510 而消费者将在通胀担忧期承受传导 1321 00:42:39,510 --> 00:42:41,710 我认为这 1322 00:42:41,710 --> 00:42:42,190 在过去 1323 00:42:42,190 --> 00:42:42,510 你知道的 1324 00:42:42,510 --> 00:42:45,500 油价冲击更可能 1325 00:42:45,500 --> 00:42:47,980 导致疲软经济陷入衰退 1326 00:42:47,980 --> 00:42:49,480 这不是当前状况 1327 00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,659 是的，所以我认为 1328 00:42:51,659 --> 00:42:53,300 不要认为美联储会鹰派 1329 00:42:53,300 --> 00:42:56,719 美联储可能在市场波动时出手 1330 00:42:56,719 --> 00:43:01,179 正在做年初未预料到的事 1331 00:43:01,179 --> 00:43:06,179 这与过去一周的发展无关 1332 00:43:06,380 --> 00:43:07,159 嗯，我是说 1333 00:43:07,159 --> 00:43:10,559 这种言论让人以为 1334 00:43:10,559 --> 00:43:11,539 人工智能是 1335 00:43:12,579 --> 00:43:14,119 他们被低估了 1336 00:43:14,119 --> 00:43:16,690 除非这是同一个人 1337 00:43:16,690 --> 00:43:18,710 在马斯克那里三倍于 1338 00:43:18,710 --> 00:43:20,349 推特三倍于 1339 00:43:20,349 --> 00:43:22,070 运营所需员工数量 1340 00:43:22,070 --> 00:43:22,630 没错 1341 00:43:22,630 --> 00:43:23,349 是的 1342 00:43:23,349 --> 00:43:25,969 是的，没错而且 1343 00:43:25,969 --> 00:43:26,389 你知道的 1344 00:43:26,389 --> 00:43:27,228 看看这家公司 1345 00:43:27,228 --> 00:43:27,509 就像 1346 00:43:27,509 --> 00:43:29,708 他们真的需要这么多员工吗 1347 00:43:29,708 --> 00:43:31,170 哦，难道不是吗 1348 00:43:31,170 --> 00:43:33,429 他们以为自己改了股票代码 1349 00:43:33,429 --> 00:43:33,750 是啊 1350 00:43:33,750 --> 00:43:36,528 找到了 xyz 哦 1351 00:43:36,528 --> 00:43:39,268 说到这家公司 1352 00:43:39,268 --> 00:43:41,009 问题就在这里 1353 00:43:41,009 --> 00:43:44,710 Square 曾经是高增长营收公司 1354 00:43:44,710 --> 00:43:46,690 当年规模巨大 1355 00:43:46,690 --> 00:43:49,949 现在员工数量却大幅减少 1356 00:43:49,949 --> 00:43:53,989 当业务无法实质性增长时 1357 00:43:53,989 --> 00:43:55,000 没错 1358 00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:56,880 那万亿十二个月营收增长 1359 00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:57,500 这太疯狂了 1360 00:43:57,500 --> 00:44:01,420 我们来查看 Square 的图表 1361 00:44:01,420 --> 00:44:02,239 先看看这个 1362 00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,099 以前曾是 1363 00:44:05,099 --> 00:44:05,559 你知道的 1364 00:44:05,559 --> 00:44:08,239 几年前还是高速增长公司 1365 00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:08,599 哦 1366 00:44:08,599 --> 00:44:09,409 看看这个 1367 00:44:09,409 --> 00:44:09,989 你知道的 1368 00:44:09,989 --> 00:44:11,110 曾经高速增长 1369 00:44:11,110 --> 00:44:15,079 现在却毫无起色 1370 00:44:15,079 --> 00:44:16,639 听着你 1371 00:44:16,639 --> 00:44:18,260 公司业务停滞不前 1372 00:44:18,260 --> 00:44:20,219 必须裁员很多 1373 00:44:20,219 --> 00:44:20,840 应该这么做 1374 00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:24,059 现在不需要那么多员工了 1375 00:44:24,059 --> 00:44:25,039 这让人不禁思考 1376 00:44:25,039 --> 00:44:26,650 Square 如此操作 1377 00:44:26,650 --> 00:44:30,969 难道 PayPal 不会大举介入 1378 00:44:32,619 --> 00:44:33,460 想想这个 1379 00:44:34,699 --> 00:44:37,079 想想 PayPal 现在的利润 1380 00:44:37,079 --> 00:44:41,429 如果 PayPal 突然裁员30% 1381 00:44:43,500 --> 00:44:45,539 你知道这会带来多少利润 1382 00:44:45,539 --> 00:44:47,108 这种利润率 1383 00:44:47,469 --> 00:44:49,829 PayPal 现在增长不如从前 1384 00:44:49,829 --> 00:44:50,929 业务几乎停滞 1385 00:44:50,929 --> 00:44:52,688 现在还需要那么多员工吗 1386 00:44:52,688 --> 00:44:53,449 没错 1387 00:44:53,449 --> 00:44:56,259 嗯 是的 1388 00:44:56,259 --> 00:44:58,719 看看他们近期的盈利能力 1389 00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:06,880 毫无疑问这正是需要裁员的公司 1390 00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:10,559 他们就是这样做的 1391 00:45:10,559 --> 00:45:14,519 不要以为所有公司都必须大规模裁员 1392 00:45:14,519 --> 00:45:16,940 这曾是超级高增长公司 1393 00:45:16,940 --> 00:45:17,920 几年前 1394 00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:19,099 现在已不是 1395 00:45:19,099 --> 00:45:21,179 一目了然 1396 00:45:21,179 --> 00:45:22,480 这家业务到底怎么了 1397 00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:23,300 你必须进来 1398 00:45:23,300 --> 00:45:24,260 而且你要裁员 1399 00:45:24,260 --> 00:45:26,420 总之就是关于这个适配度的底线 1400 00:45:26,420 --> 00:45:28,380 所以我真的不知道你 1401 00:45:28,380 --> 00:45:28,659 你 1402 00:45:28,659 --> 00:45:31,840 你之前对AI做了广泛描述 1403 00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:33,099 关于当时发生的事情 1404 00:45:33,099 --> 00:45:34,940 或者这只是个特例 1405 00:45:34,940 --> 00:45:37,679 我认为我们最好适应这种情况 1406 00:45:37,679 --> 00:45:38,059 不过 1407 00:45:38,059 --> 00:45:38,478 是啊 1408 00:45:38,478 --> 00:45:38,918 我是说 1409 00:45:38,918 --> 00:45:41,219 我知道很多公司正在部署 1410 00:45:41,219 --> 00:45:41,858 AI员工 1411 00:45:41,858 --> 00:45:43,199 比如在funstrat 1412 00:45:43,199 --> 00:45:46,250 我们正在部署这些代理 1413 00:45:46,250 --> 00:45:50,510 并将其视为员工 1414 00:45:50,510 --> 00:45:54,670 但我认为我们仍不确定 1415 00:45:54,670 --> 00:45:57,208 这最终是否会创造更多岗位 1416 00:45:57,208 --> 00:45:58,588 AI正在淘汰大量 1417 00:45:58,588 --> 00:45:59,949 它将摧毁许多公司 1418 00:45:59,949 --> 00:46:01,329 而AI本身 1419 00:46:01,329 --> 00:46:02,429 真正的杀手是 1420 00:46:02,429 --> 00:46:04,699 可以说已经表现强劲 1421 00:46:04,699 --> 00:46:07,980 因此至少估值合理 1422 00:46:07,980 --> 00:46:08,579 呃 1423 00:46:08,579 --> 00:46:08,940 是的 1424 00:46:08,940 --> 00:46:09,699 而且 1425 00:46:09,699 --> 00:46:12,340 至少在软件股方面 1426 00:46:12,340 --> 00:46:17,670 整个板块已回落至去年四月水平 1427 00:46:17,670 --> 00:46:19,409 这显然是过度反应 1428 00:46:19,409 --> 00:46:24,699 因此我认为市场重挫的板块 1429 00:46:24,699 --> 00:46:25,760 将开始回稳 1430 00:46:27,820 --> 00:46:31,380 所以我认为有人曾提出 1431 00:46:31,380 --> 00:46:35,539 在AI领域领先的公司 1432 00:46:35,539 --> 00:46:38,639 可能维持现状并稳定 1433 00:46:38,639 --> 00:46:42,559 但可能从严重超卖的领域反弹 1434 00:46:42,559 --> 00:46:43,420 对啊 1435 00:46:43,420 --> 00:46:45,460 所以你认为现在 1436 00:46:45,460 --> 00:46:47,900 市场最初弱势已显现 1437 00:46:49,099 --> 00:46:51,929 我们可能触底了 1438 00:46:51,929 --> 00:46:52,369 你怎么看 1439 00:46:52,369 --> 00:46:53,449 三月有望上涨 1440 00:46:53,449 --> 00:46:54,050 是的 1441 00:46:54,050 --> 00:46:56,570 我认为三月大概率上涨 1442 00:46:56,570 --> 00:46:57,769 我知道感觉不像这样 1443 00:46:57,769 --> 00:47:00,119 因为二月底走势如此 1444 00:47:00,119 --> 00:47:01,659 但以空头姿态入场 1445 00:47:01,659 --> 00:47:03,099 最终却像 1446 00:47:03,099 --> 00:47:03,800 是的 1447 00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:04,280 是的 1448 00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:04,440 是的 1449 00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:05,699 可能随着天气变好而到来 1450 00:47:05,699 --> 00:47:07,019 但你知道像软件这类东西 1451 00:47:07,019 --> 00:47:10,130 磁极七和加密货币都出现了早期弱势 1452 00:47:10,130 --> 00:47:13,289 它们可能处于最后阶段 1453 00:47:13,289 --> 00:47:14,940 或者已经见底 1454 00:47:14,940 --> 00:47:17,519 我认为这帮助我们走向四月 1455 00:47:17,519 --> 00:47:21,099 如果你半夜醒来查看剧院的位置 1456 00:47:21,099 --> 00:47:23,610 这值得倾听 1457 00:47:24,929 --> 00:47:25,869 这是重大声明 1458 00:47:25,869 --> 00:47:27,010 我不确定 1459 00:47:27,010 --> 00:47:30,650 你知道比特币周期要到第四季度才会见底 1460 00:47:30,650 --> 00:47:32,409 并且在3万美元以下 1461 00:47:32,409 --> 00:47:34,230 所以你知道 1462 00:47:34,230 --> 00:47:37,800 我认为预测比特币以太坊的底部 1463 00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:39,059 很难很难 1464 00:47:39,059 --> 00:47:40,400 你知道你可以尝试 1465 00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:41,159 但呃 1466 00:47:41,159 --> 00:47:43,320 而在比特币周期中曾有反弹 1467 00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:43,880 你知道 1468 00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:44,760 但最终 1469 00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:48,289 据说还会大幅下跌 1470 00:47:48,289 --> 00:47:51,010 所有试图预测比特币以太坊底部的人 1471 00:47:51,010 --> 00:47:53,380 我注意到大家都在试图喊底 1472 00:47:53,380 --> 00:47:56,340 所有非常投入其中的人 1473 00:47:56,340 --> 00:47:56,820 比如 1474 00:47:56,820 --> 00:47:58,230 几乎全仓持有 1475 00:47:58,230 --> 00:48:00,789 这些都是需要注意的 1476 00:48:00,789 --> 00:48:01,670 正如所说 1477 00:48:01,670 --> 00:48:03,599 我再也睡不着了 1478 00:48:03,675 --> 00:48:04,780 不 1479 00:48:04,780 --> 00:48:05,119 是的 1480 00:48:05,119 --> 00:48:06,599 暂时不担心 1481 00:48:06,599 --> 00:48:07,780 因为你知道以太坊 1482 00:48:07,780 --> 00:48:09,300 有基本面支撑 1483 00:48:09,300 --> 00:48:10,380 你知道当前情况如何 1484 00:48:10,380 --> 00:48:12,480 现在在以太坊上构建的东西很多 1485 00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:12,880 我是说 1486 00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:16,820 几乎每个代币化基金的重大公告都如此 1487 00:48:16,820 --> 00:48:22,188 这是否能改变供需动态推动价格上涨 1488 00:48:22,188 --> 00:48:22,389 不过 1489 00:48:22,389 --> 00:48:22,989 或者你可以 1490 00:48:22,989 --> 00:48:26,250 继续在这些网络上持续投入 1491 00:48:26,250 --> 00:48:28,309 我是说这就像有人声称 1492 00:48:28,309 --> 00:48:30,269 所有活动都发生在美国 1493 00:48:30,269 --> 00:48:31,809 但经济不应繁荣 1494 00:48:31,809 --> 00:48:32,309 你知道 1495 00:48:32,309 --> 00:48:32,869 是的 1496 00:48:32,869 --> 00:48:35,130 所以如果所有事情都在以太坊上进行 1497 00:48:35,130 --> 00:48:36,420 那么价格就会随之变动 1498 00:48:36,420 --> 00:48:38,059 但我们正处于加密货币寒冬 1499 00:48:38,059 --> 00:48:39,460 所以价格并不重要 1500 00:48:39,460 --> 00:48:39,960 你知道的 1501 00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,889 汤姆·李先生在所有尊重下 1502 00:48:42,889 --> 00:48:43,329 不 1503 00:48:43,329 --> 00:48:44,590 事情并非如此运作 1504 00:48:44,590 --> 00:48:46,510 这甚至不符合股票市场的规律 1505 00:48:46,510 --> 00:48:48,710 即使一家企业正在盈利 1506 00:48:48,710 --> 00:48:51,809 并不意味着股价会上涨（以PayPal为例） 1507 00:48:51,809 --> 00:48:53,670 我们刚才不是刚提到PayPal吗 1508 00:48:53,670 --> 00:48:57,190 我们的PayPal股票不是从300美元跌到40美元 1509 00:48:57,190 --> 00:48:58,130 没错 1510 00:48:58,130 --> 00:48:59,610 PayPal停止盈利了吗 1511 00:48:59,610 --> 00:49:00,829 他们是否停止运营 1512 00:49:00,829 --> 00:49:03,369 事实上他们比以往任何时候都赚得更多 1513 00:49:03,369 --> 00:49:05,110 他们的业务活动比以往更活跃 1514 00:49:05,110 --> 00:49:07,028 总支付量创下历史新高 1515 00:49:07,028 --> 00:49:11,449 但过去几年股价却从300美元跌至40美元 1516 00:49:11,449 --> 00:49:15,099 然而所有这些都在上涨 1517 00:49:15,099 --> 00:49:17,599 所以如果说像 1518 00:49:17,599 --> 00:49:18,380 活动正在发生 1519 00:49:18,380 --> 00:49:19,980 但这并非市场运作方式 1520 00:49:19,980 --> 00:49:21,739 尤其是对于以太坊这类资产 1521 00:49:21,739 --> 00:49:24,719 没人知道如何评估这类资产价值 1522 00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:26,260 所以如果说像 1523 00:49:26,260 --> 00:49:28,260 有人正在尝试在其上构建应用 1524 00:49:28,260 --> 00:49:30,670 所以这没问题 1525 00:49:30,670 --> 00:49:31,889 尽管如此 1526 00:49:31,889 --> 00:49:34,250 先生，这不符合金融市场规则 1527 00:49:35,650 --> 00:49:36,050 当然 1528 00:49:36,050 --> 00:49:37,090 不确定 1529 00:49:37,090 --> 00:49:42,599 观察黄金、白银及 1530 00:49:42,599 --> 00:49:43,260 你知道的 1531 00:49:43,260 --> 00:49:44,079 实物资产 1532 00:49:44,079 --> 00:49:45,659 但这并非永远成立 1533 00:49:45,659 --> 00:49:48,280 我建议在回调时买入更多以太坊 1534 00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:50,590 能买多少以及是否持续今日操作 1535 00:49:50,590 --> 00:49:51,730 是的 1536 00:49:51,730 --> 00:49:55,489 Bitmine每周买入约5万美元 1537 00:49:55,489 --> 00:49:57,670 或每周约1000万美元以太坊 1538 00:49:57,670 --> 00:50:01,929 但现金储备已增至8亿多美元 1539 00:50:01,929 --> 00:50:07,980 因此能在合适时机进行大规模以太坊采购 1540 00:50:07,980 --> 00:50:11,420 我认为我们正在接近加密货币底部 1541 00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:13,880 你认为每周买入1000万美元 1542 00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:14,480 好的 1543 00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:17,179 是的 1544 00:50:17,179 --> 00:50:17,820 没有人 1545 00:50:17,820 --> 00:50:18,570 他们会的 1546 00:50:18,570 --> 00:50:19,250 你知道吗 1547 00:50:19,250 --> 00:50:19,449 如果 1548 00:50:19,449 --> 00:50:22,230 当以太坊最终见底并经历新一轮上涨周期时 1549 00:50:22,230 --> 00:50:24,690 他们将在这个过程中占据有利位置 1550 00:50:24,690 --> 00:50:26,820 但你必须判断底部 1551 00:50:26,820 --> 00:50:28,420 这确实很难做到 1552 00:50:28,420 --> 00:50:29,579 波动性正在这里 1553 00:50:29,579 --> 00:50:31,019 我需要波动性 1554 00:50:31,019 --> 00:50:33,000 波动性已经出现 1555 00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:37,239 我并不认为我们有足够的清晰度 1556 00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:40,719 我不确定我们有足够的信心去预期某一天 1557 00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:41,400 比如昨天 1558 00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:43,400 当时看起来一切正常 1559 00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:45,329 市场可能会向上突破 1560 00:50:45,329 --> 00:50:46,889 相信这种走势能够展开 1561 00:50:46,889 --> 00:50:49,010 我认为今天早上情况相同 1562 00:50:49,010 --> 00:50:50,969 我不认为有足够的清晰度 1563 00:50:50,969 --> 00:50:54,730 相信正在发生重大恶化 1564 00:50:54,730 --> 00:50:56,730 在这种环境中该怎么做 1565 00:50:56,730 --> 00:50:58,449 要寻找机会 1566 00:50:58,449 --> 00:50:59,650 创造 1567 00:50:59,650 --> 00:51:00,449 超额收益 1568 00:51:00,449 --> 00:51:01,610 我昨天说过 1569 00:51:01,610 --> 00:51:04,068 CF行业公司，这是公司名称 1570 00:51:04,068 --> 00:51:06,248 这是我昨天买入的股票 1571 00:51:06,248 --> 00:51:08,409 这里可以创造超额收益 1572 00:51:08,409 --> 00:51:09,920 基于当前局势 1573 00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:12,880 保持对炼油商的敞口 1574 00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:13,989 柴油价格 1575 00:51:13,989 --> 00:51:15,469 今天大幅上涨 1576 00:51:15,469 --> 00:51:17,969 如果你认为存在供应中断 1577 00:51:17,969 --> 00:51:19,989 与中东石油相关 1578 00:51:19,989 --> 00:51:21,550 看看北部加拿大 1579 00:51:21,550 --> 00:51:22,679 有SunCore 1580 00:51:22,679 --> 00:51:24,900 有加拿大自然资源公司 1581 00:51:24,900 --> 00:51:28,260 持有金融交易所相关股票 1582 00:51:28,260 --> 00:51:29,400 我们有芝加哥商品交易所 1583 00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:33,590 还有ICE和JO CBOE，这是我目前关注的 1584 00:51:33,590 --> 00:51:37,389 这里才是创造超额收益的机会 1585 00:51:37,389 --> 00:51:39,250 最后是魔七指数 1586 00:51:39,250 --> 00:51:40,429 我上周告诉过你 1587 00:51:40,429 --> 00:51:42,829 我以为你不会买微软 1588 00:51:42,829 --> 00:51:46,329 现在我要改变看法，我们已在JT持有 1589 00:51:46,329 --> 00:51:48,809 我认为魔七指数有韧性 1590 00:51:48,809 --> 00:51:51,730 这在微软、苹果和Meta上有所体现 1591 00:51:51,730 --> 00:51:53,789 注意到微软的走势 1592 00:51:53,789 --> 00:51:55,000 最好的情况是 1593 00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:58,780 对于许多SaaS股票和SaaS危机 1594 00:51:58,780 --> 00:52:04,588 以及这些大型科技公司，实际上正是中东冲突 1595 00:52:04,588 --> 00:52:07,309 原因在于所有人都在关注这个局势 1596 00:52:07,309 --> 00:52:12,460 大家都似乎陷入这种思维模式好几周了 1597 00:52:12,460 --> 00:52:14,619 或者在cap x的过去几个月里 1598 00:52:14,619 --> 00:52:16,360 他们能否收回投资呢 1599 00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:19,880 所有这些问号都在质疑sass是否会完全崩溃 1600 00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:23,019 因为涉及人类中心主义 1601 00:52:23,019 --> 00:52:25,320 以及各种不同的大型语言模型等 1602 00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:30,300 因此能在脱离所有负面情绪的对话中 1603 00:52:30,300 --> 00:52:32,019 打破这种负面循环 1604 00:52:32,019 --> 00:52:33,860 这种负面情绪一直笼罩着市场 1605 00:52:33,860 --> 00:52:35,019 现在市场转向了其他方向 1606 00:52:35,019 --> 00:52:38,039 我认为这对许多股票来说可能是最好的结果 1607 00:52:38,039 --> 00:52:38,539 因为现在 1608 00:52:38,539 --> 00:52:39,099 就像 1609 00:52:39,099 --> 00:52:39,500 好的 1610 00:52:39,500 --> 00:52:41,059 我们专注于这边的其他事情 1611 00:52:41,059 --> 00:52:43,320 而不是绿色马尔科姆 1612 00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:43,719 交给你了 1613 00:52:43,719 --> 00:52:44,880 据巴克莱今日报道 1614 00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:45,440 正如我们所见 1615 00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:45,800 你知道的 1616 00:52:45,800 --> 00:52:49,570 市场多个板块正推动地缘政治风险指数 1617 00:52:49,570 --> 00:52:52,590 飙升至历史第二高水平 1618 00:52:52,590 --> 00:52:56,599 仅次于九一一事件 1619 00:52:56,599 --> 00:52:59,119 今日乔纳森·林斯基在报告中指出 1620 00:52:59,119 --> 00:53:00,199 导弹发射时 1621 00:53:00,199 --> 00:53:01,619 正是买入时机 1622 00:53:01,619 --> 00:53:05,050 通常地缘政治的剧烈波动难以持久 1623 00:53:05,050 --> 00:53:08,050 你对此有何看法 1624 00:53:08,050 --> 00:53:11,309 我认为这正是市场创造机会的时刻 1625 00:53:11,309 --> 00:53:14,630 这不是全面买入整个市场的时机 1626 00:53:14,630 --> 00:53:17,909 标普500指数近期分化程度罕见 1627 00:53:17,909 --> 00:53:19,420 五百年来首次出现这种情况 1628 00:53:19,420 --> 00:53:20,420 我自己 1629 00:53:20,420 --> 00:53:23,760 与其他人已在此岗位上工作逾一年 1630 00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:26,800 一直在说买家市场即将到来 1631 00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:28,420 这就是买家市场 1632 00:53:28,420 --> 00:53:31,369 巴克莱今日又发布了一份报告 1633 00:53:31,369 --> 00:53:35,139 指出标普500今年迄今的交易区间约2.5% 1634 00:53:35,139 --> 00:53:36,900 但指数成分股平均波动幅度是其七倍 1635 00:53:36,900 --> 00:53:41,269 若以微软为例 1636 00:53:41,269 --> 00:53:43,449 你提到的Palantir 1637 00:53:43,449 --> 00:53:44,710 例如 1638 00:53:44,710 --> 00:53:45,190 这些公司今年迄今下跌约15% 1639 00:53:45,190 --> 00:53:48,570 但像德文能源 1640 00:53:48,570 --> 00:53:49,989 例如 1641 00:53:49,989 --> 00:53:50,550 或钻石背能源等公司涨幅更高 1642 00:53:50,550 --> 00:53:53,170 反向走势 1643 00:53:53,170 --> 00:53:54,139 材料和能源板块间的分化 1644 00:53:54,139 --> 00:53:56,980 正引领标普500指数 1645 00:53:56,980 --> 00:53:58,260 这些板块主导着标普500 1646 00:53:58,260 --> 00:53:59,199 所以在这里的各位父亲们 1647 00:53:59,199 --> 00:54:01,079 与金融和科技行业相比 1648 00:54:01,079 --> 00:54:02,530 这正是去年的表现 1649 00:54:02,530 --> 00:54:03,630 再好不过了 1650 00:54:03,630 --> 00:54:07,090 因此我认为这是一个买入心仪股票的机会 1651 00:54:07,090 --> 00:54:10,110 而不必一味追求全仓配置 1652 00:54:10,110 --> 00:54:12,349 所以许多今天的策略师 1653 00:54:12,349 --> 00:54:12,510 你们不是这样吗 1654 00:54:12,510 --> 00:54:16,940 这就是我绝对讨厌能源股的原因 1655 00:54:16,940 --> 00:54:17,860 能源股 1656 00:54:17,860 --> 00:54:18,179 你知道的 1657 00:54:18,179 --> 00:54:20,619 人们从交易者视角出发 1658 00:54:20,619 --> 00:54:21,460 我们就要冲进去 1659 00:54:21,460 --> 00:54:24,960 因为目前油价大幅上涨且中东冲突 1660 00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:28,480 啰里吧嗦一大堆对吧 1661 00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:30,000 现在正是热门投资 1662 00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:32,079 人们正急于涌入其中 1663 00:54:32,079 --> 00:54:33,239 这就像一场游戏 1664 00:54:33,239 --> 00:54:34,599 何时是最佳退出时机 1665 00:54:34,599 --> 00:54:35,440 是下周吗 1666 00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:36,360 是下个月吗 1667 00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:36,880 是时候了 1668 00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:37,739 你知道明天吗 1669 00:54:37,739 --> 00:54:38,789 就是今天吗 1670 00:54:38,789 --> 00:54:40,230 是一年后吗 1671 00:54:40,230 --> 00:54:40,809 而问题在于 1672 00:54:40,809 --> 00:54:41,130 哦 1673 00:54:41,130 --> 00:54:41,969 我真是讨厌这种情形 1674 00:54:41,969 --> 00:54:42,190 比如 1675 00:54:42,190 --> 00:54:44,010 作为长期投资者 1676 00:54:44,010 --> 00:54:48,329 买入优质公司并长期持有 1677 00:54:48,329 --> 00:54:51,289 我们只需考虑未来卖出时机 1678 00:54:51,289 --> 00:54:53,010 但无需担忧买入时机 1679 00:54:53,010 --> 00:54:55,349 试图在价格下跌前完美抛售 1680 00:54:55,349 --> 00:54:58,429 这就是购买能源类股票的感受 1681 00:54:58,429 --> 00:55:00,010 对吧或大宗商品 1682 00:55:00,010 --> 00:55:01,110 感觉就像在买入 1683 00:55:01,110 --> 00:55:04,530 试图精准把握时机在下跌前卖出 1684 00:55:05,650 --> 00:55:08,619 而当我通常卖出长期投资时 1685 00:55:08,619 --> 00:55:10,960 多数情况下我从 1686 00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:11,619 我并非认为 1687 00:55:11,619 --> 00:55:12,699 即将暴跌 1688 00:55:12,699 --> 00:55:12,860 所以 1689 00:55:12,860 --> 00:55:13,500 我需要卖出 1690 00:55:13,500 --> 00:55:14,039 这就像 1691 00:55:14,039 --> 00:55:15,219 这个估值是否合理 1692 00:55:15,219 --> 00:55:16,460 我有更好的资金配置方案 1693 00:55:16,460 --> 00:55:17,849 简单来说 1694 00:55:18,130 --> 00:55:19,289 当你买入这些其他资产 1695 00:55:19,289 --> 00:55:20,489 像能源股和埃克森 1696 00:55:20,489 --> 00:55:21,210 莫比尔和雪佛龙 1697 00:55:21,210 --> 00:55:23,170 以及这些不同的大宗商品 1698 00:55:23,170 --> 00:55:24,510 你从这个视角来看 1699 00:55:24,510 --> 00:55:26,150 我得在它下跌前撤出 1700 00:55:26,150 --> 00:55:26,809 我不 1701 00:55:27,849 --> 00:55:28,969 我不喜欢这个人 1702 00:55:28,969 --> 00:55:30,289 我不喜欢这个 1703 00:55:30,289 --> 00:55:31,969 这感觉不对 1704 00:55:31,969 --> 00:55:33,530 绝不可能 1705 00:55:33,530 --> 00:55:35,278 那边的何塞 1706 00:55:35,278 --> 00:55:37,018 对市场的积极看法 1707 00:55:37,018 --> 00:55:38,358 凯蒂·休蒂在 1708 00:55:42,849 --> 00:55:45,949 他们对下一到十二个月股市看涨的观点 1709 00:55:45,949 --> 00:55:47,989 瑞银也表示 1710 00:55:47,989 --> 00:55:52,489 我们预计全球能源供应仅会短暂或轻微受阻 1711 00:55:52,489 --> 00:55:53,110 你知道的 1712 00:55:53,110 --> 00:55:55,539 显然我们关注霍尔木兹海峡 1713 00:55:55,539 --> 00:55:56,019 呃 1714 00:55:56,019 --> 00:55:56,880 那里发生了什么 1715 00:55:56,880 --> 00:55:57,360 他们说 1716 00:55:57,360 --> 00:55:57,820 引述 1717 00:55:57,820 --> 00:56:00,039 因此我们维持基准预测 1718 00:56:00,039 --> 00:56:02,500 美国股市今年将实现良好收益 1719 00:56:02,500 --> 00:56:03,349 你同意吗 1720 00:56:03,349 --> 00:56:03,710 呃 1721 00:56:03,710 --> 00:56:05,030 我认为年底时 1722 00:56:05,030 --> 00:56:05,789 我们应该看到这一点 1723 00:56:05,789 --> 00:56:06,289 但你知道的 1724 00:56:06,289 --> 00:56:07,969 当你看中期选举年 1725 00:56:07,969 --> 00:56:10,840 年份的回撤接近20% 1726 00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:12,320 通常可以说 1727 00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:13,440 这里会有什么原因 1728 00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:16,059 我们有外生事件的例子 1729 00:56:16,059 --> 00:56:19,239 我认为市场仍处于上升轨道 1730 00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:21,309 但在谈到马尔科的观点时 1731 00:56:21,309 --> 00:56:23,449 你会发现途中优质股票 1732 00:56:23,449 --> 00:56:25,809 我们在15倍市盈率增持迪士尼 1733 00:56:25,809 --> 00:56:26,309 收益 1734 00:56:26,309 --> 00:56:28,900 优质公司将处于买入状态 1735 00:56:28,900 --> 00:56:30,858 这才是你需要关注的 1736 00:56:30,858 --> 00:56:31,539 是的 1737 00:56:31,539 --> 00:56:32,018 是的 1738 00:56:32,018 --> 00:56:32,659 我说 1739 00:56:32,659 --> 00:56:33,199 迪士尼 1740 00:56:33,199 --> 00:56:34,539 你知道这不是我最爱的股票 1741 00:56:34,539 --> 00:56:37,570 但可能有人会买 1742 00:56:37,650 --> 00:56:39,690 我们先看看迪士尼 1743 00:56:39,690 --> 00:56:40,769 在结束前 1744 00:56:42,250 --> 00:56:45,730 所以我对迪士尼的问题主要围绕 1745 00:56:48,139 --> 00:56:49,980 资产负债表稍微有点问题 1746 00:56:49,980 --> 00:56:52,780 但你知道他们总体还是个好公司 1747 00:56:52,780 --> 00:56:54,900 他们的财务数据很混乱 1748 00:56:55,420 --> 00:56:56,519 这里的数据一团糟 1749 00:56:56,519 --> 00:56:57,840 我们需要深入调查 1750 00:56:57,840 --> 00:56:59,260 我们需要深入调查 1751 00:56:59,260 --> 00:57:01,619 让我看看迪士尼的图表 1752 00:57:02,820 --> 00:57:04,210 迪士尼 1753 00:57:05,820 --> 00:57:06,400 是的 1754 00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:07,239 啊 1755 00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:08,059 没错 1756 00:57:08,059 --> 00:57:09,539 我的意思是 1757 00:57:09,539 --> 00:57:11,079 这是一个稳健的商业模式 1758 00:57:11,079 --> 00:57:12,670 但啊 1759 00:57:13,150 --> 00:57:14,949 现在不感兴趣 1760 00:57:14,949 --> 00:57:16,690 但你应该关注的是 1761 00:57:16,690 --> 00:57:17,389 如果你想的话 1762 00:57:17,389 --> 00:57:18,710 就是下面的评论提示 1763 00:57:18,710 --> 00:57:20,679 这就是我的检查清单 1764 00:57:20,679 --> 00:57:22,960 你可以看出自己的投资者水平 1765 00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:24,199 这将是第一个评论提示 1766 00:57:24,199 --> 00:57:25,159 下面的第二个评论提示 1767 00:57:25,159 --> 00:57:26,039 如果你想用德语回复 1768 00:57:26,039 --> 00:57:26,639 或许股票组 1769 00:57:26,639 --> 00:57:27,239 私人财富组 1770 00:57:27,239 --> 00:57:27,579 获取权限 1771 00:57:27,579 --> 00:57:28,980 千乘股票网 1772 00:57:28,980 --> 00:57:29,940 所有优质内容 1773 00:57:29,940 --> 00:57:32,039 这就是下面的第二个评论提示 1774 00:57:32,039 --> 00:57:33,820 祝你一切顺利，度过美好一天
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