【Daniel Pronk】奈飞财报后股价大跌！这是你需要知道的一切

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Netflix股票目前盘后交易下跌超过8%

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在他们刚刚公布2026年第一季度财报后

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现在核心数据看起来相当亮眼

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我不得不深入分析市场抛售的原因

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在这期视频中我将快速解读财报

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分享对Netflix股票暴跌8%的评估观点

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并解释为何认为当前股价正在下跌

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另外快速说明一下

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如果你是首次关注我的频道

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或尚未订阅

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请考虑订阅

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因为我尽量覆盖财报季所有重要财报

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如果你想获取所有即将发布的财报视频

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我将在接下来几周制作的财报内容

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请点击订阅按钮

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言归正传

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现在进入Netflix财报分析

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首先

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第一季度营收同比增长16%

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按汇率中性计算增长14%，运营利润增长18%

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均超出Netflix预期指引，因订阅收入略超计划

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他们还预计2026年营收将在507亿至517亿美元

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运营利润率31.5%

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核心用户参与指标创历史新高

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并持续扩展视频播客业务

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我们的首个区域性活动

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棒球经典赛

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在日本创下收视纪录

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并在4月初

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推出独立儿童游戏应用

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我们持续利用AI优化用户体验

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在第一季度

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我们收购Inter Positive

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为创作者提供更全面的生成式AI工具

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广告营收按计划推进，2026年目标30亿美元

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同比大幅增长

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娱乐业务依然充满活力和竞争

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但我们处于有利地位，正巩固优势

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多年以来

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我们学到最重要的是保持专注

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比竞争对手更快提升

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首先

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Netflix仍超出季度营收和运营利润指引

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看来财报结果再次良好

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根据头条新闻

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现在深入分析继续观察

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真正发生的情况是什么

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现在

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下一张截图展示Netflix关键指标表格

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及2026年二季度预测

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但聚焦第一季度

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我们可以看到收入同比增长了16.2%，而去年同期为12.5%

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按年同比计算

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同比增速实际上高于去年第一季度

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营业利润率也提升至3

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2.3%，而去年为3

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1.7%

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摊薄每股收益基本翻倍

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我相信同比增幅约达86%

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因此本季度每股收益显著增长

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再次

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基于第一季度数据

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看起来Netflix一切进展顺利

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然而

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看一下他们第二季度指引

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预计收入将增长13.

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5%，而2025年第二季度为15.9%

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所以

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Netflix似乎预期其收入增速

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将再次放缓，且同比增速也会放缓

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这打破了过去一年业务呈现的趋势

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他们还预计第二季度营业利润率将达3

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2.6%，而2025年第二季度为3

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4.1%

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这意味着营业利润率预计同比下滑

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最后

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Netflix预计下一季度每股收益为78美分

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而2025年第二季度为72美分

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下一季度同比增幅仅8.3%

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这与Netflix此前的盈利

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增长速度相比大幅放缓

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简而言之

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Netflix的第二季度指引偏弱

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他们预期收入增速将开始放缓

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且营业利润率预计同比收缩

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我认为这就是股价盘后下跌的主要原因

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接下来切换下一张截图

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这里提供了更多背景信息

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Netflix第一季度收入同比增长16%

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按外汇中性计算为14%

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主要由会员增长驱动

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价格上涨及广告收入增加

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摊薄每股收益达1.23美元

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而2025年第一季度为0.66美元

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2025年第二季度为0.8

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6%同比增速超出预期0.76美元/股

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得益于超预期的营业利润

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以及与华纳兄弟交易相关的28亿美元终止费

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因此本季度Netflix每股收益显著增长

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主要得益于28亿美元终止费收入

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但这对每股收益而言确实是一次性收益，未来不再适用

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我认为市场不应为此定价

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毕竟这明显是一次性收益

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但需要注意的是，若扣除28亿美元收益

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Netflix的税前收入仍同比增长16%

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这仍然表现优异

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他们仍交出了一份强劲季度财报

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无论是否考虑这一一次性收益

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但回到屏幕截图

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Netflix表示2026全年指引保持不变

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我们预计2026年营收为507亿至517亿美元

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同比增长12-14%，或按汇率中性计算11-13%

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Netflix预计2026年营收将实现约12%汇率中性增长

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针对第二季度

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预计营收增长13%或12%，按汇率中性计算

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同时预计第二季度将是2026年同比

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内容摊销增长最快的季度

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并在下半年逐步放缓

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因此

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Netflix预测第二季度运营利润率将为3

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2.6%相比去年同期的34.1%

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但预计第三季度和第四季度运营利润率将同比提升

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以实现全年目标

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对于全年目标

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仍预计实现31.5%运营利润率目标

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运营利润率将受内容摊销费用拖累

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这些是非现金支出集中在第二季度

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而在第二季度之后

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预计运营利润率将同比回升

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全年指引保持不变

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这让我认为下季度运营利润率同比下滑

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应不会对投资者构成影响

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因为这是非现金核销

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第二季度较大冲击将在全年逐步修正

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因此

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在我看来

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再次强调

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这是投资者无需过度关注的因素

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这也让我认为股价下跌

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主要源于Netflix预期的营收增速放缓

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这将是我的最大疑虑

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个人而言接下来切换至下一截图

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这是一个展示Netflix各地区营收的表格

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以及各地区增长率数据

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可以看到美国和加拿大

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营收同比增长14%

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这实际上是加速增长

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相比2025年第一季度的9%增速

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然而

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在欧洲地区，汇率中性营收增长12%，而去年为16%

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在拉丁美洲他们看到十八个百分点的中性增长，而去年是两七个百分点

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而在亚太地区他们看到十九个百分点的营收增长，相比去年的两

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六个百分点

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看起来Netflix的营收增长率正在放缓

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在所有国际地区

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我认为这有点令人担忧

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因为这些应该是

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长期增长的主要驱动力

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因为这些市场渗透率极低

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未来增长空间仍然很大

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当主要增长市场开始出现显著营收增速放缓

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这确实开始变得令人担忧，成为另一个警示信号

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但这还不至于非常严重

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我在这里尽量保持批判性分析

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因为我认为整体数据

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对Netflix来说非常强劲

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但我正在尝试向你解释

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为什么市场可能在盘后抛售Netflix股票

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在我看来

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这是另一个原因

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再次因为

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由于他们的国际市场

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增长市场也开始出现显著营收增速放缓

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我们可以看到营收增速放缓对股价的影响

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我们现在分析欧洲营收

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以恒定货币计算的增长率追溯至2024年第一季度

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可以看到他们刚公布的十二个百分点增长率是

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自2024年第一季度以来最弱的季度，差距明显

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Netflix的拉丁美洲营收增长率同样如此

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同样以恒定货币计算

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他们实现了十八个百分点的同比营收增长

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这仍然是非常强劲的增长率

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但可以明显看出增速在放缓

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亚太地区的情况也是如此

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但该地区的增速表现优于其他地区

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十九个百分点的增长

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与2024年第二季度的增速相当

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但相比2025年第一季度有所放缓

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当时达到了记录性的两

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六个百分点的同比增速

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现在

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我还注意到Netflix的

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美国和加拿大营收在季度环比上略有下降

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在这张图表中我们查看美国和加拿大营收

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追溯至2019年第四季度

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在这段时间内我没有看到历史先例

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出现美国和加拿大营收小幅下滑

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这也是我不太理想的情况

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因为这是他们的最大市场

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在最大市场他们刚经历了季度环比营收下降

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所以这可能是因为取消订阅增加或其他类似原因

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但这是我绝对会深入调查的事情

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如果我是Netflix的股东

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或者现在可能在财报电话会上听到相关消息

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我也想稍微平衡一下这个视频内容

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并展示Netflix的欧洲收入仍在强劲增长

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并且已经创下历史新高

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他们的拉丁美洲收入同样如此

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持续强劲增长并创下历史新高

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最后亚太地区的收入情况也是如此

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季度环比仍在持续增长

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看起来所有数据都在向正确方向发展

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现在让我们开始讨论Netflix的估值，个人认为

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市盈率EBITDA

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整体而言EBITDA是最适合分析业务和估值的指标

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00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:44,559
因为Netflix的EBITDA是最稳定的盈利指标

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00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:48,419
这将提供最一致的历史价格比率

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在此前财报发布前

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Netflix的交易价格约为15.2倍EBITDA

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00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:57,720
其历史平均值可追溯至2015年为12.7倍

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中位数为12.6倍

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Netflix的交易价略高于历史平均市盈率

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00:11:04,460 --> 00:11:09,149
这可能表明股价已计入强劲财报预期

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以及2026年第二季度的强劲展望

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如果查看Netflix的估值评分

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在Stock Unlock平台

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00:11:16,070 --> 00:11:17,259
财报发布前

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显示大致处于合理估值区间

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未进入严重高估区域

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00:11:22,309 --> 00:11:23,769
但显然并不便宜

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回看此前约77美元时

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每股76美元

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Netflix的估值评分开始变得合理且有吸引力

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00:11:32,589 --> 00:11:37,409
但近期股价上涨后评分已提升

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现在看起来不再那么便宜

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至少在财报发布前

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而Netflix股票在财报前并未明显低估

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这让我认为

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市场可能已计入强劲财报结果和展望

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今年的表现

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最后

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我快速做了Netflix的DCF估值

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预计EBITDA将年均增长约12%

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并按历史平均估值

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12.5倍市盈率EBITDA

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在此DCF模型中

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得出的公允价值为104.60美元/股

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相当于溢价9%

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三年复合增长3.3%

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年增长率

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相对于每股108美元的收盘价

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我们还得到每股约168美元的未来股价

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这将带来约5.6%的总回报率

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这个DCF分析基本上在告诉我们，如果Netflix能继续保持

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业务在未来五年以约12%的年增长率增长

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00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:34,629
这符合他们2026年的当前展望，并以历史平均12倍

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五倍的市盈率

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那么公允价值将为104.60美元

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这也意味着基于这些DCF输入

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Netflix目前在盘后交易中略低于公允价值

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但在财报发布前曾略高于公允价值

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我对Netflix的整体看法

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这是一个非常高质量的业务

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我说的正是Netflix这家公司

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几乎每个人都有Netflix订阅

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一季度财报结果也非常强劲

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营收增长16%

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运营利润率也超出预期

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00:13:08,820 --> 00:13:12,360
本季度每股收益对我来说非常惊人

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这份财报存在两个关键问题

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目前Netflix股价

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首先是整体营收增速在放缓

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尤其是在主要增长市场

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其次是股价并不显得便宜

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即使在盘后下跌后

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我认为Netflix股价现在可能接近公允价值

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但我仍认为

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长期来看股票回报不会非常亮眼

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因为它预计从现在起年增长约12%

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结合这一增速和历史市盈率水平

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未来五年可能带来约10%的市场平均回报

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这对我来说回报率不够吸引

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我确实认为

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这显然是显而易见的

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但确实觉得股价被低估

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每股约77美元

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00:14:07,370 --> 00:14:10,669
这也是Stock Unlock估值显示的结果

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00:14:10,669 --> 00:14:11,970
简而言之

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00:14:11,970 --> 00:14:15,450
我认为Netflix股价过高

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00:14:15,450 --> 00:14:16,899
在财报发布前

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00:14:16,899 --> 00:14:21,330
市场对其业务和前景预期更高

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00:14:21,330 --> 00:14:24,929
同时看到营收增速放缓并不理想

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00:14:24,929 --> 00:14:30,100
而股价又高于历史市盈率水平

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00:14:30,100 --> 00:14:34,730
我认为这就是股价盘后下跌的原因

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这就是我对Netflix股票的看法

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说到这里

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00:14:38,370 --> 00:14:39,769
视频到这里就结束了

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如果你喜欢这个视频

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00:14:41,100 --> 00:14:42,580
请给它点个赞

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00:14:42,580 --> 00:14:43,620
如果你是第一次来这里

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00:14:43,620 --> 00:14:48,068
并且希望继续关注接下来几周的类似收益内容

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00:14:48,068 --> 00:14:49,688
请考虑订阅我的频道

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00:14:49,688 --> 00:14:50,989
如果还没订阅的话

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00:14:50,989 --> 00:14:51,869
一如既往地

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00:14:51,869 --> 00:14:53,568
非常感谢你的收看

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00:14:53,568 --> 00:14:55,068
我真的很感激

307
00:14:55,068 --> 00:14:57,460
希望下次视频再见

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