【Investor Center】比尔·阿克曼：70年来最大的投资机遇

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每个人都记得二零零八年那些恶棍

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那两家几乎烧毁经济的房贷巨头

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如今亿万富翁比尔·阿克曼

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凭借自己的财富

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识别金融定时炸弹与机遇

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称这些公司可能成为美国三百亿美元的避风港

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而政客们争论削减社保或增税以解决债务危机

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阿克曼指出政府资产负债表上隐藏的真相

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一行测试颠覆了整个债务辩论

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让我们深入探讨

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我们正在经历

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你知道的

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一个政府赤字巨大的时代

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我们不清楚如何摆脱

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三十六万亿美元的债务

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我认为斯科特押注了信用

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他说

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你知道吗

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我们必须聚焦

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不仅在支出端

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在负债端

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更要关注资产端

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美国政府今日是房利美和房地美的八成股东

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以及房利美、房地美

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这两家非凡企业

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它们的数据规模惊人

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是的

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所以这就是

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没错

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政府对房利美和房地美的持股价值接近三百亿美元

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政府实现三百亿美元收益的路径始于今日

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这些机构处于接管状态

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你知道的

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这是一个临时场所

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政府将陷入困境的金融机构放在此处

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陷入麻烦

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直至其重组并复苏

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顺便说一句

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这一临时接管已持续一代人

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是的

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已持续十六年

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或类似时长

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嗯，而特朗普曾率先

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在首任期与财长姆努钦讨论

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如今我认为他们将完成这项工作

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公司将结束接管状态

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并需以方式

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当然

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保护三十年期房贷

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确保房贷成本不上涨

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但它可能会出现

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你知道的

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如何防止这种情况

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是抵押贷款利率将会上涨

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担保费用也必须提高

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阿克曼揭开了

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为什么政府最终可能将房利美和房地美

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华盛顿陷入绝境

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赤字规模巨大

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他们无法填满这个三

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六万亿美元的窟窿仅靠削减开支或无限发债

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相反

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他说

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看看联邦政府持有的美

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国国债实际上持有房利美和房地美80%

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这两家默默盈利的房贷巨头

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目前

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它们处于托管状态

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这是政府托管的委婉说法

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自从2008年它们几乎崩溃以来

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本应是临时的政府监护对象

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事情是这样的

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房利美和房地美曾是私营公司

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负责收购房贷并提供担保在2008年

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当房地产崩盘时

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纳税人拯救了它们免于破产

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作为回报

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9%的普通股

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此后

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普通投资者无法获得收益

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因为如果你持有房利美或房地美普通股

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你看不到任何收益

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为什么联邦政府会放弃这200亿美元年收益

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因为一次性收益更大且联邦政府急需现金

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据最新估算80%股权可估值约3000亿美元

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这相当于美国全年赤字的六分之一

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S年度赤字

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但这无法一夜解决36万亿美元问题

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还能避免新增更多债务

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一大担忧是房地产市场会怎样

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如果这些房贷巨头私有化那么

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30年固定房贷成本更高

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想想莎拉刚在丹佛锁定首套房利率6.5%

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个百分点

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若私有化推高利率

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房贷成本

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数百万未来的家庭被高昂的房贷价格逐出美国梦

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这是政治自杀

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埃克曼暗示任何释放措施都必须保护三十年期房贷

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政策制定者深知

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不能让美国最喜爱的房贷利率飙升至平流层

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特朗普总统明确表示将维持政府担保

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即使在剥离后

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这种保证能维持投资者信心并压低房贷利率

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阿克曼也提出

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将房利美和房地美合并为单一实体

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合并后的公司可削减重复成本并可能降低对贷款机构的收费

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核心问题是华盛顿

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不会批准推高街坊房贷利率的计划

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他们需要双赢方案

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但在我们接受美好前景前

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必须正视房间里的大象

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2008年许多人仍听到房利美或房地美

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为何现在要信任这些机构

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阿克曼的回答

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因为它们已不是同一批机构

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他形容它们已重建如诺克斯堡

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注意他提到的数据

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这些数字支撑他的信心

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让我们听阿克曼解释为何数学证明这些公司比政府更安全

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房利美和房地美如今资本充足度远超以往

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在其存在前六十年

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仅需持有五%

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四%

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五%的权益作为担保

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顺便说四%

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五%在金融危机时就足够

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若未涉足次贷

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但出托管时资本仍薄弱

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假设他们能

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将至少持有两.五%的权益相对担保

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若考虑其业务

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并非银行

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人们对此业务存在误解

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他们是购买符合标准的房贷

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符合严格安全标准的房贷

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最初

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针对中产家庭的房贷

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信用良好的借款人违约概率低

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一旦违约

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只会产生小额损失

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他们购买这类房贷

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将其打包成信托

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并发行相关证券

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他们保证这些证券的安全性

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但这类高度分散化的组合违约概率非常低

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这是一笔非常安全的抵押贷款集合

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他们收取费用

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作为提供担保的费用

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他们针对

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你知道的

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无法履行担保责任的情况只有一种

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他们初始拥有巨额资本

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他们将合并约两百亿美元的股本

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如果私有化

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是的

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所以目前有多少已经作为

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他们每年收取六十五个基点的现金流

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从这些担保中收取费用

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嗯

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如果再次经历金融危机

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首先需要消耗所有股本

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然后可动用近四百亿的优先股权益

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来自政府的优先股

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同时他们持续拥有强大的盈利能力

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即使在困难时期也能保持

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这就像是双重保险

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还有另一条保险带

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还有安全带

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拥有巨额股本

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此外由于房利美和房地美的系统重要性

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它们享有隐性政府担保

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让我们拆解阿克曼刚才的论述

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因为过去这些公司的资本严重不足

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他提到他们仅持有四

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百分之五的股本作为抵押担保

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想象每一百美元贷款

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他们担保

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仅保留四到五美分的储备

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难怪房地产市场崩盘时他们就崩溃了

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但未来

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这是之前缓冲的五倍以上

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这里有个快速压力测试

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假设有一百美元的抵押贷款

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预

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2008年房利美和房地美持有约四十

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五美分的储备

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若损失达一美元

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他们将亏损五

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五美分

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现在就资不抵债了

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想象一下为同一百美元储备两美元五十美分

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一美元亏损仍会留下一美元五十美分的权益

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亏损必须超过五倍

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在新规下这些公司资本耗尽需更糟于两千零八年

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政府援助明确在旁待命

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可视为第二层保护屏障

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在消耗完新增权益后

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他们可调用最多四百亿的紧急资金

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这是额外5.7%的支撑

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合计约两

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五%的硬性资本

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加5.7%的备用等于约8%总损失缓冲

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在分散优质抵押组合中8%的损失几乎不可想象

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除非大萧条级别情景

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那公司本身呢

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房利美和房地美并非银行

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不吸收存款也不做复杂交易

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仅打包并担保普通符合标准的房贷

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相对安全的类型

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想象30年固定贷款给信用良好的购房者

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房价低于一定门槛的住宅

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如同抵押贷款保险公司

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收取小额费用以覆盖任何违约

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该担保费约60

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计算0.6

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年收入超四十

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五亿美元

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运营成本并不高昂

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贷款违约率历史极低

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2023年大部分利润已流入

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房利美赚取174亿美元

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房地美获利105亿美元

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合计约28亿美元年利润

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即便现在处于监管之下

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市场关键点在此

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房利美和房地美普通股总市值仅约170亿美元

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近期股价计算

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你听清了年盈利280亿美元

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对比170亿美元市值市盈率

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远低于1倍

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如同用80美分购买年赚1美元的公司

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这怎么可能

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只要处于接管状态

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这些收益不归股东

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用于为美国政府建设资本

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市场基本押注政府永不放这些公司出

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普通股可能一文不值

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但如果阿克曼正确且即将有释放政策

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这种估值差距完全不合理

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即使采用保守的十倍市盈率估值，也意味着近3000亿美元价值

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一些分析师认为

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完全私有化的房利美房地美合计可能价值400-5000亿美元

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而且

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请记住

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这就是阿克曼所说的剩余投资者的意外之财

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这表明私有化后当前股价可能暴涨数倍

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难怪阿克曼十年来重仓持有

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这正是市场在定价最坏情形

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而阿克曼押注回归正常状态

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现在我们必须明确这个交易并非没有风险

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最大风险在于政治层面，房利美房地美改革是住房政策的高压线

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自2010年以来已在国会多次夭折

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并且独自完成此事

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部分流程可能需要立法或面临法律挑战

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阿克曼本人最近指出直接IPO目前不可行

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过程可能需要更渐进

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比如重新在纽交所上市

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而非立即大规模增发和时间表至关重要

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如果拖延太久

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政治风向可能再次转变

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还有经济形势问题

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政客们可能再次犹豫

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但房地产低迷也可能促使政府加快行动

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因为若房利美房地美仍停滞

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纳税人将承担所有损失

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私有化可将部分风险转移给私人投资者

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关注此股的投资者

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这个机会极具吸引力

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但投机性你可以今日买入房利美或房地美股票

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若阿克曼正确

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私有化后股价可能飙升

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一些大基金已采取此策略

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将其视为长期期权

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但需注意这些股票波动剧烈且多年成为政治筹码

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政策制定者一条推特可能当日引发十数点涨跌

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如果你是房主或购房者

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你也参与其中

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顺利过渡可能改善抵押贷款体系

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或许长期降低费用

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通过竞争或效率提升

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操作失误可能导致信贷收紧或房贷利率上升

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这就是为何至关重要

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正如阿克曼所言

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它们以一种保护三十年期抵押贷款的方式出现

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阿克曼真正强调的是危机如何创造机遇

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美国面临的难题令人望而生畏

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债务规模攀升至三万六千亿美元

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如今利息支出已超过一千亿美元/年

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政客们几乎没有可行的选择

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其中一个选择是出售家族银器——房利美和房地美代表

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也许是内阁中最耀眼的资产

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系统性重要

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是的

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但也极具价值

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经过十年整顿已准备好被剥离

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讽刺的是在2008年纳税人救助了这些公司

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而到了2024年

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及以后可能是这些公司反哺纳税人

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反派变成了英雄

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我们最初的问题是

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如何解决三万六千亿美元的问题

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阿克曼的答案

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变现隐藏资产

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让市场承担负担

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而当前的资产正是这两台巨型房贷机器

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已准备被释放

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这个教训不仅关乎房利美和房地美

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而是要纵观全局棋盘

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作为投资者识别资产与负债

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若能提前察觉政府迫在眉睫的行动

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就能站在交易的赢家一方

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持续追问什么正在明处藏匿

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如果你想深入探讨风险

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关于美国即将来临的债务危机

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观看此视频了解沃伦·巴菲特的冷峻真相

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我们后会有期

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