美股 AI泡沫警报！NVDA、MU大暴跌！美联储新主席政策两难！TSLA空头也来了！TSM又要扩张产能！PLTR还有戏吗？MSFT、AAPL多头还在坚守！

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大家好

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今天是5月15号星期五

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我们继续分析美股

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本期内容如下

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我们先看消息面

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AI芯片泡沫警报

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AI芯片股的上涨狂热已达到历史性极端水平

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市场过热风险极高

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但基本面支撑与历史泡沫的争议并存

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值得投资者高度警惕

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历史性泡沫指标

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费城半导体指数

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当前价格较其200日移动均线

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高出62%

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这一溢价幅度已超越多个历史关键节点

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超越互联网泡沫

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当前的偏离度已超过2000年

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互联网泡沫破裂前

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纳斯达克指数55%的偏离水平

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比肩密西西比泡沫

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当前偏离度接近1720年

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密西西比泡沫破裂前

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法国股市73%的记录

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当时问题重重的殖民公司股票

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导致法国货币供应量翻倍

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警惕市场过热

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策略师警告

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这种极端偏离预示着市场过热风险极高

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投资者需警惕潜在的剧烈回调

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泡沫争议与基本面

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尽管泡沫风险升温

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但AI巨头强劲的云收入增长

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又为这波上涨提供了基本面支撑

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使得市场观点出现分歧

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泡沫论与资金担忧

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一些经济学家确信

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当前AI投资热潮是泡沫

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因需筹集超万亿美元现金支持投资

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已引发市场热议

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AI营收正在兑现

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谷歌

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亚马逊和微软的一季度云收入分别同比增长

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63%

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28%和40%

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为股市上涨提供了坚实的基本面支撑

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规模不及历史泡沫

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也有观点认为

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当前AI投资规模与19世纪改变

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美国的铁路泡沫相比

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仍相形见绌

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其长期价值仍有待验证

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美联储政策转向通胀

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数据超预期

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引爆市场对美联储加息的压注

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与当前通胀高企的经济现实的双重挑战

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政治与经济的博弈

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特朗普一直强烈要求降息

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而沃什曾主张因AI提升生产率而降息

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但当前高通胀现实使其面临艰难抉择

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务实的沟通挑战

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其政策沟通的难度与复杂性将极大

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直接影响市场稳定

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政策立场存疑

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在鲍威尔任期内

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美联储已将利率维持在

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3.5%到3.75%区间

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而政策转向的时机与幅度充满不确定性

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台积电的扩张蓝图

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台积电预测

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AI将主导半导体需求

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并计划加速产能扩张

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以满足激增的市场需求

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其全球化布局和先进技术投资成为行业焦点

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台积电的市场预测

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台积电预测

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AI将主导未来半导体需求

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其增长规模将远超智能手机与汽车

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芯片等传统领域

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AI主导市场需求

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台积电预测到2030年

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AI与高性能计算将占1.5万亿美元

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芯片市场的55%

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远超智能手机与汽车芯片增长规模对比

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AI与hp c的占比

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将远高于智能手机的20%

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和汽车芯片的10%

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成为行业绝对的增长引擎

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台积电的产能扩张

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为满足激增的市场需求

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台积电计划加速产能扩张

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并在全球范围内布局新工厂

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以应对挑战

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加速产能扩张

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台积电计划在2025~2026年加速扩产

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其最先进技术需求

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在2026~2028年间

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预计以70%的年化增长率增长

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瓶颈转向封装

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先进封装成为主要瓶颈

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台积电预计

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其covers产能在2022~2027年间

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的复合年增长率将超过80%

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全球化布局加速

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台积电在全球推进建设

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新工厂及亚利桑那州工厂

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预计到2026年产量将同比增长1.8倍

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好我们看一下今天市场的表现

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达到了约1.7%

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我们看到空头的力度开始显现

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那么新的一波回调啊

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可能正在进行中哈

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那么之前两个交易日是冲高了一下哈

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那么今天周五啊啊开始有一点点力度了

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你看之前啊这些印象还不强对吧

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所以市场又冲了一下

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我们看一下15分钟的感觉对吧

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我们长长的这个大波段哈

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这有点微微破位的感觉

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那么接下来我们就要看它回调的深度啊

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还有力度的问题

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那今天是看不到了啊

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可能下周一或者是周二啊会有所显现哈

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快的话周一就会有所显介哈

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是泡沫吗

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应该是哈

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这跌多少呢

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不知道哈

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这个还真难猜

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现在看不出来也可以不跌吗

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我觉得稍微跌一点的概率会高一点哈

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好你看这空头还是挺强势的对吧

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我们再看一下日线嗯

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好

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日线呢

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我们对我们这个陡峭的上涨趋势有所破位好

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不过也不用过于恐慌啊

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因为多头还是非常强势的啊

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这波呢估计也就是回撤哈

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而不是反转为熊市好

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这是纳指的感觉

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我们看一下道指

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道指这个阻力区这周就没能上去哈

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那么今天的阴线略微强势了一点点哈

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就下周再看一看哈

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空头会不会延续啊

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震荡或者是更深回调的这种可能性

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罗素今天也是给了根阴线啊

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他是在支撑区的上方啊

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后续呢要看这个支撑区的有效性啊

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很正常

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我们看一下标普

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标普整体而言

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今天也是给出了强势的阴线哈

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那么前两个交易日还行来着对吧

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看下15分钟图嗯

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有点往下破的感觉哈

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我们这个趋势线呢也可以适当的调到这附近啊

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你看多少有点小破位了哈

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好好哎

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好理论上这是一个空头进场位哈

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好我们看一下今天市场整体的表现哈

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美股的行业热力好

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你看我们今天即便如此啊

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我们的这个软件应用软件还涨了一丢丢哈啊

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半导体不行啊

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相关的汽车制造啊都不行哈

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看一下领涨板块

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领涨板块还是能源类的比较多哈

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能源啊

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太阳能天然气AI应用软件股啊

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能源类的行吧

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我们看一下我们的这个列表

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你看啊

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我们的诸多股票还是有上涨的

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我们看下微软是吧

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微软这个还在相对低位哈

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所以所以市场是分化的一个走势

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应该做啥呀

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还得做赌是吧

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哎还得做多

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它没有像那些股一样高高在上啊

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相反他低低在下是吧

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好这是微软

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我们看下闪迪哈

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闪迪今天竟然没有收出阴线哈

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天文地开又拉了起来

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我们看一下15分钟图

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有可能高位震荡洗盘啊

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像特别强势的这个股票

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也有可能是高位横盘洗盘

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所以我说呢这个大盘它不一定跌的多深哈

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你包括这微软什么的

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包括这个苹果都在这呢哈

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支撑着呢

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我们再看一下苹果啊

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苹果今天收阳线啊

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他也你如果苹果回调的话

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估计也就是回踩一下这个支撑位对吧

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嗯今天还收阳线

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我们看一下15分钟图表明什么

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表明其实空头不是

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那么目前不是太强啊

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市场是分化的好苹果

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好也有下跌的呀

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是的呀

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我们往下看啊

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我们看下PLT2吧

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PLTR这个大家就要还是那句话

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还得警惕哈

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因为它到底涨还是跌

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没有给出答案

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空头一定要空的话

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那就使劲往下砸是吧

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那么周四周五两天啊都是阳下

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但是啊这个阳线的力度不足哈

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之前哈在高位的时候有空头唱空来着吧

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嗯大家不要觉得这个空间窄哈

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这空间其实很深的哈

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40%左右的一个回调啊

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所以那个有一个大空头唱空来着吧

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他就做的空

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那么近期他又带场控

223
00:10:30,119 --> 00:10:32,239
难道他要把这个变成头肩顶吗

224
00:10:32,239 --> 00:10:34,039
继续往下跌吗

225
00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:35,960
但目前看不出来啊

226
00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,080
所以这个图在下周仍旧是需要高度警惕的

227
00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:39,840
一只图表

228
00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:41,320
如果一旦强势往下破位

229
00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,450
多头先离场就可以了

230
00:10:43,830 --> 00:10:44,269
好

231
00:10:47,269 --> 00:10:49,710
我们看一下这个台积电哈

232
00:10:49,710 --> 00:10:52,350
台积电的产能扩张还要扩张啊

233
00:10:52,350 --> 00:10:54,490
但是市场有洗盘的需求

234
00:10:54,490 --> 00:10:57,360
你看台积电今天也就是跳空低开

235
00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:58,519
我维持了一个震荡

236
00:10:58,519 --> 00:10:59,960
那昨天是阳线是吧

237
00:10:59,960 --> 00:11:02,039
在这位置呢我们再观察一下

238
00:11:02,039 --> 00:11:03,568
它是一个横盘洗盘

239
00:11:03,568 --> 00:11:07,009
我们说横盘洗盘仍旧有可能还是中继

240
00:11:07,009 --> 00:11:08,208
说万一是顶呢

241
00:11:08,208 --> 00:11:09,669
万一是顶的士呗

242
00:11:09,669 --> 00:11:11,409
那就画一个支撑位啊

243
00:11:11,409 --> 00:11:14,419
我们把这个支撑区画一个往下跌

244
00:11:14,419 --> 00:11:16,220
使劲砸才行啊

245
00:11:16,220 --> 00:11:18,860
使劲砸才值得去减仓减持哈

246
00:11:18,860 --> 00:11:20,279
减仓对吧

247
00:11:20,279 --> 00:11:21,100
看日线的话

248
00:11:21,100 --> 00:11:23,719
其实很这位置还是一个支撑位啊

249
00:11:23,719 --> 00:11:27,679
所以啊空头略微有些显得有些犹豫哈

250
00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:31,269
今天这根黑线还有长长的下影线哈

251
00:11:31,269 --> 00:11:33,789
它这个收跌主要是天空低开导致

252
00:11:33,789 --> 00:11:35,330
因为昨天收盘在高位啊

253
00:11:35,330 --> 00:11:37,309
所以这片是一个震荡区间是吧

254
00:11:37,309 --> 00:11:41,159
嗯我们看一下英伟达

255
00:11:41,159 --> 00:11:44,690
唉英伟达昨天啊是暴涨

256
00:11:44,690 --> 00:11:45,769
今天就跳回来哈

257
00:11:45,769 --> 00:11:47,490
今天属于跳空低开哈

258
00:11:47,490 --> 00:11:48,549
然后往下砸

259
00:11:48,549 --> 00:11:51,659
这样的话它属于震荡上行的一个走势

260
00:11:51,980 --> 00:11:53,320
不是一个熊市啊

261
00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:55,299
不能往熊市上去看哈

262
00:11:55,299 --> 00:11:57,179
我们看一下15分钟的感觉

263
00:11:57,179 --> 00:11:58,759
好对吧

264
00:11:58,759 --> 00:12:00,698
走了一个大波段又要回调哈

265
00:12:00,698 --> 00:12:02,590
嗯回呗

266
00:12:02,590 --> 00:12:06,350
那就是ABC震一震都可以哈

267
00:12:06,350 --> 00:12:08,169
他要走通道行情也可以啊

268
00:12:08,169 --> 00:12:10,149
也就震荡上行是熊市吗

269
00:12:10,149 --> 00:12:12,950
不是但是回撤还是有了

270
00:12:12,950 --> 00:12:13,889
开始有了

271
00:12:13,889 --> 00:12:16,350
其实之前这儿也有这种回撤啊

272
00:12:16,350 --> 00:12:18,500
只不过不是太明显

273
00:12:18,500 --> 00:12:19,539
好再看一下日线

274
00:12:19,539 --> 00:12:22,379
日线估计呢横盘一下还是怎么着好

275
00:12:22,379 --> 00:12:25,059
需要看下一根K线的表现啊

276
00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:30,399
额今天的特斯拉也是回调是吧

277
00:12:30,399 --> 00:12:33,909
经过了较为陡峭的一波拉升之后啊

278
00:12:33,909 --> 00:12:35,649
估计要在中间这洗盘啊

279
00:12:35,649 --> 00:12:37,889
这片这片是一个支撑位哈

280
00:12:37,889 --> 00:12:40,720
在400元410这一带

281
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,200
要看支撑区域的一个表现是吧

282
00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:44,659
这里横盘震荡一段时间

283
00:12:44,659 --> 00:12:47,000
就跟这似的也是可以的哈

284
00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,480
所以有时候洗盘它不是熊市啊

285
00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,279
我们什么时候预警熊市要再观察一下

286
00:12:52,279 --> 00:12:55,799
你不可能刚来一根阴线就变成熊市了啊

287
00:12:56,210 --> 00:12:57,809
当然美股也很复杂哈

288
00:12:57,809 --> 00:12:58,889
到底会怎么样

289
00:12:58,889 --> 00:13:00,450
我们要继续观察一下

290
00:13:00,450 --> 00:13:02,610
所以啊这个都是减仓位还

291
00:13:02,610 --> 00:13:04,129
而不是彻底离场

292
00:13:04,129 --> 00:13:05,809
或者也可以不动啊

293
00:13:05,809 --> 00:13:07,850
再观察一下这片

294
00:13:09,279 --> 00:13:11,059
我们看一下英特尔啊

295
00:13:11,059 --> 00:13:13,980
英特尔也是延续了一个回调的态势

296
00:13:13,980 --> 00:13:15,720
破掉了陡峭的趋势线啊

297
00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:17,009
今天收底

298
00:13:17,009 --> 00:13:19,190
我们看一下15分钟图啊

299
00:13:19,190 --> 00:13:21,879
他已经开始哈下行了是吧

300
00:13:21,879 --> 00:13:23,700
那么高位减仓

301
00:13:23,700 --> 00:13:24,779
减仓之后啊

302
00:13:24,779 --> 00:13:26,340
看看回调止跌情况

303
00:13:26,340 --> 00:13:28,039
那如果下周强劲的止跌呢

304
00:13:28,039 --> 00:13:29,259
那就不要减了

305
00:13:29,259 --> 00:13:30,580
那如果继续往下跌

306
00:13:30,580 --> 00:13:31,700
可以适当的离场啊

307
00:13:31,700 --> 00:13:33,779
或者是等待更深的位置再做了

308
00:13:34,779 --> 00:13:36,059
没有一直涨的对吧

309
00:13:36,059 --> 00:13:37,318
涨这么多

310
00:13:37,318 --> 00:13:38,719
这也可以震荡嘛

311
00:13:38,719 --> 00:13:39,519
也可以啊

312
00:13:39,519 --> 00:13:43,240
嗯包括这个镁光也是啊

313
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:45,200
前几个天啊是漂在上面

314
00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,210
今天是往下砸了一下

315
00:13:47,210 --> 00:13:48,809
我们看一下15分钟图

316
00:13:48,809 --> 00:13:51,250
嗯如果再往下跌的话哈

317
00:13:51,250 --> 00:13:52,090
就要注意了

318
00:13:52,090 --> 00:13:53,149
再往下使劲跌

319
00:13:53,149 --> 00:13:54,698
多头离长啊

320
00:13:54,698 --> 00:13:56,139
或者是大量的减仓

321
00:13:56,139 --> 00:13:57,538
那如果再飘起来呢

322
00:13:57,538 --> 00:13:58,578
就没事对吧

323
00:13:58,578 --> 00:14:01,029
这是15分钟图啊

324
00:14:01,029 --> 00:14:03,120
再飘起来就是高位横盘棋盘了

325
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:04,799
或者是这种洗盘是吧

326
00:14:04,799 --> 00:14:06,379
或者是深度一点的洗盘

327
00:14:06,379 --> 00:14:08,419
大家喜欢深度一点的还是怎么着

328
00:14:08,419 --> 00:14:10,100
深度一点的其实更好啊

329
00:14:10,100 --> 00:14:12,600
为啥因为很多人不敢追高了哈

330
00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,059
深度一点做下一轮更好

331
00:14:15,059 --> 00:14:16,629
无所谓哈

332
00:14:16,629 --> 00:14:19,549
好稍后呢我们将录制我们的会员视频哈

333
00:14:19,549 --> 00:14:21,169
欢迎大家成为绿宝石会员

334
00:14:21,169 --> 00:14:22,279
我们待会儿见

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