【Graham Stephan】瑞·达利欧的最后警告：美国38万亿债务大洗牌已经开始

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货币体系正在崩溃

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美

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美国联邦预算已走上不可持续的道路

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我们很快就会破产

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除非我们严肃对待支出问题

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未来三年内我们面临紧迫问题

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是的

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怎么了

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你们几个

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我是格雷厄姆

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我们在2022年遇到了重大问题

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亿万富翁瑞·达利欧发布了一段43分钟长的视频

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预测主要经济体即将崩溃

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正如我们所知

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基于历史上不断重复且必然发生的周期

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果然回顾他预测的内容大多应验了

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通胀飙升资产价格暴涨

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贵金属创历史新高

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全球紧张局势升级

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所有迹象表明新世界秩序尚未到来

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它已经开始发生了

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但现在出现了一个转折点

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几天前瑞·达利欧宣布全球秩序已正式崩溃

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意味着我们将进入最后的债务周期

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后果将不可逆转

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而大多数人不知接下来会发生什么

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这就是我们需要讨论他预测即将发生的事情

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为何这些周期完全可预测

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只要知道该观察什么

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以及如何最好地为未来做准备

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因为无论是否愿意金融变革

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不会伤害那些预见变化的人

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只会伤害认为一切不变的人

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不过在开始前

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如果你喜欢这类视频

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我正在路上拍摄

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在随机Airbnb处录制以便及时发布

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如果能点赞订阅我会非常感激

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如果你还没这样做的话

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我知道这有点傻

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但确实帮助很大

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作为感谢

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这里有一张 stingray 的图片

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所以非常感谢

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同时也感谢

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非常感谢

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感谢Gemini赞助此视频

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稍后详细说明

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好的

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那么从哪里开始

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这很可能会以何种方式收场

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理解这一点很重要

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根据雷·达里奥的观点，存在六个经济周期

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所有经济体都会经历一个可预测的模式

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这不是随机的

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他认为这只是时间问题，最终这一切终将显现

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接下来首先是

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新世界秩序开始

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通常在重大危机或冲突后出现

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重置整个系统

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想想二战后

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当美

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美元成为全球储备货币，全球合作增强

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这一切将导向下一步

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增长阶段本质上机遇涌现

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财富快速积累，乐观情绪高涨

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这导致第三个高峰

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繁荣与强权

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此时

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该国货币成为全球储备货币

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金融市场引领世界

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军费增加，生活水平提高

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但表面之下

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债务开始上升

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突然金融投机超越了金融生产力

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正如所料

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很快就会出现第四阶段的金融失衡

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债务增速快于收入

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资产泡沫形成

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不平等加剧，政治极化同步上升

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对机构的信任大幅下降

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人们开始觉得系统对他们不利

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而非服务于他们

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这意味着唯一结果就是第五阶段

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冲突与混乱

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这意味着社会动荡变得更为常见

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竞争对手挑战主导国家

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贸易压力升级

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货币增发增加，货币面临竞争

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这是雷·达里奥在2022年最后警告的节点

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而现在他认为我们正进入第六也是最后阶段，经济重置前

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这就是第六阶段

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新世界秩序

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最终当债务压力

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货币增发、不平等

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及政治动荡达到无法持续的临界点时

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政府被迫重组债务

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货币可能被贬值以减轻负担

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财富分配政策往往随之出现

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全球权力平衡开始转变

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有时这种转型可通过政策或改革来管理

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但无论如何旧体系不再按以往方式运作

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新体系随之取代旧有格局

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随后整个周期重新从第一步开始

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然而

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如果我们放眼观察当下正在发生的事

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现实是这些变化不会完全同步发生

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就瑞·达利欧认为最可能发生的情况

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我们必须分析五大类全球冲突

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在他看来当全球权力平衡开始转变时

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国家不会直接开战

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而是通过大多数人未察觉的多个领域逐步升级

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第一道防线通常是贸易与经济战

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国家通过关税削弱彼此

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出口限制和供应链施压

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而非直接面对面冲突

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他们使商业活动成本更高

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限制关键商品并从外部破坏对方经济

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这也引出了第二类技术战

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事实上

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谁能掌控AI半导体和能源技术就占据巨大优势

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这也是为何美国

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S

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正在阻断中国获取先进芯片

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而中国则推进自身计划

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比如即便今天

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这些出口禁令进一步扩大

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使创新主导权成为零和博弈

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这也导致第四类

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我们还有资本战

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这本质上是金融战

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国家实施制裁

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冻结资产并切断银行

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以限制对方的商业能力

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这在2022年可见一斑

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当俄罗斯储备被冻结时瑞·达利欧特别指出

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政府历来擅长在实际冲突前使用资产冻结和禁运

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在实际开战前

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除此之外

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还可能出现地缘政治战

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这些是影响力争夺战

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全球联盟与战略要地的争夺

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而非直接对抗国家通过合作

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以控制特定区域或重要航道

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类似于格陵兰岛近期的情况

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最后第五类

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这是最后手段

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这将是军事战争

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从历史来看

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当紧张局势达到这个阶段时

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经济方面

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政治和科技冲突早已持续许久

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此时两国面临无解选择

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开战并承担

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巨大代价或退让显得软弱

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我要支持阿里奥的观点

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这不正是所有矛盾必然引发战争

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但要说当全球力量开始转变时

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国家间竞争开始加剧

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若从全局视角观察

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就能发现这早已持续许久

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在大多数人察觉之前

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就未来预期而言

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他说的下一步必然发生

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以及你能领先布局的蓝图

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这就是你来听的内容

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因为若历史为鉴到那时

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感觉明显已经太迟了

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虽然说真的很快

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趁我们讨论这个话题

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这是我注意到的

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当市场出现不确定性时

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人们失业

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这就是我近期为何强调多元化

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而非全部押注股票或房地产或现金

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我能全面配置各类资产

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而我们的赞助商

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Gemini信用卡正来助力

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这非常有趣

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因为不再积累被遗忘的航空里程

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或几乎不用的信用卡积分

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可将日常消费返现为加密货币

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每次我在餐厅用餐时

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购买 groceries 或加油

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就能接触比特币等全新资产类别

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餐饮3%

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 groceries 2% 其他1% 无年费

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这意味着我不必择时操作

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也不必刻意自行购买

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系统自动完成无需额外思考

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更别说提供六种独特不锈钢色

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可选黑色

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银色

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玫瑰金

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金色

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比特币

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橙色XRP

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或者全新的Solana版亲自体验

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我更喜欢在消费时赚回比特币

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但如果你不喜欢这样

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你也可以选择五十多种不同的加密货币进行切换

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随时都可以

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另外可以查看下方费率和费用详情

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在简介中了解更多信息或查看是否符合条件且不影响信用评分

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说真的

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在一个一夜之间可能发生剧变的世界

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持有多种投资

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流媒体

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甚至在后台被动积累

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这提供了额外的韧性保障

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我也经常真正使用这张信用卡

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所以如果你想立即赚取比特币或选择数十种其他币种

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只需访问gemini.com/格雷厄姆或点击下方链接

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在简介中了解更多并重新注册

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这就是gemini.com/格雷厄姆

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通过下方链接

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非常感谢

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现在让我们回到视频继续

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就瑞·达利欧的理论而言

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他预期接下来会发生什么

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以及如何最好地准备

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事情变得疯狂了

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因为他考虑的还有一个最危险的因素

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那就是债务危机

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看

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现实情况是

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美国

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全国债务目前约为三

229
00:08:47,149 --> 00:08:47,769
八点

230
00:08:49,068 --> 00:08:53,318
每天增长约80亿美元

231
00:08:53,318 --> 00:08:55,538
令人难以置信的是

232
00:08:55,538 --> 00:08:59,059
利息支付现已超过每年一万亿

233
00:08:59,059 --> 00:09:04,480
这意味着我们支付的利息超过国防开支总和

234
00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,440
请仔细体会这一点

235
00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:11,799
每人负债约11.3万美元

236
00:09:11,799 --> 00:09:13,519
而且只会越来越糟

237
00:09:13,519 --> 00:09:15,559
关于瑞·达利欧对此的评论

238
00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:16,899
他直言不讳

239
00:09:16,899 --> 00:09:19,679
他说孙辈和曾孙辈

240
00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:20,899
甚至还未出生

241
00:09:20,899 --> 00:09:23,779
就要偿还债务并削弱美元

242
00:09:23,779 --> 00:09:28,958
而债务危机通常缓慢发展直到突然爆发

243
00:09:28,958 --> 00:09:31,578
这表明历史正在重演

244
00:09:31,578 --> 00:09:33,350
正如瑞·达利欧所警告的

245
00:09:33,350 --> 00:09:37,009
当国家开始出现如此程度的赤字时

246
00:09:37,009 --> 00:09:38,370
他们不会只是说

247
00:09:38,370 --> 00:09:39,110
各位听着

248
00:09:39,110 --> 00:09:39,509
抱歉

249
00:09:39,509 --> 00:09:41,950
今天没法支付了，真糟糕

250
00:09:42,919 --> 00:09:45,720
他们开始不断印制更多货币

251
00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,039
这进一步削弱了货币价值

252
00:09:48,039 --> 00:09:51,568
迫使他们印制更多货币来弥补赤字

253
00:09:51,568 --> 00:09:56,609
这种现象在历史上的每一次经济重置中都曾出现

254
00:09:56,609 --> 00:10:02,340
如今美国债务占GDP已超120%，瑞·达利欧指出

255
00:10:02,340 --> 00:10:03,960
这不是遥远的未来

256
00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:06,820
正在我们眼前发生

257
00:10:06,820 --> 00:10:10,220
这就是他近期投资建议为何如此激进

258
00:10:10,220 --> 00:10:13,639
他表示必须停止传统意义上的投资思维

259
00:10:13,639 --> 00:10:16,639
购买债券和国债这种安全资产

260
00:10:16,639 --> 00:10:20,940
应转而购买政府无法无限印钞的资产

261
00:10:20,940 --> 00:10:23,639
或者说更简单地说

262
00:10:23,639 --> 00:10:28,830
在这个周期阶段

263
00:10:28,830 --> 00:10:31,110
向政府贷款并获得利息回报的收益

264
00:10:31,110 --> 00:10:32,179
几乎无法弥补购买力的损失

265
00:10:32,179 --> 00:10:33,220
归因于通胀压力

266
00:10:33,220 --> 00:10:35,659
有趣的是

267
00:10:35,659 --> 00:10:37,769
他未提及比特币或加密货币

268
00:10:37,769 --> 00:10:41,059
作为此类时期的抗通胀工具

269
00:10:41,059 --> 00:10:41,740
尽管许多人认为他会提到这一点

270
00:10:41,740 --> 00:10:45,000
相反

271
00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,789
他指出了黄金在危机中的历史表现

272
00:10:47,789 --> 00:10:50,529
如今金价约每盎司5000美元

273
00:10:50,529 --> 00:10:53,590
显然已有投资者遵循了他的建议

274
00:10:53,590 --> 00:10:59,159
就可能的发展及对资金的影响而言

275
00:10:59,159 --> 00:10:59,710
存在三种情景

276
00:10:59,710 --> 00:11:01,210
第一条路径

277
00:11:01,210 --> 00:11:02,409
我认为无需赘言

278
00:11:02,409 --> 00:11:07,590
但瑞·达利欧称这是最高风险类别

279
00:11:07,590 --> 00:11:09,230
即无人采取行动

280
00:11:09,230 --> 00:11:10,990
继续拖延赤字问题

281
00:11:10,990 --> 00:11:13,210
最终变得不可持续

282
00:11:13,210 --> 00:11:17,960
此时必须通过货币贬值或违约

283
00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,120
维持系统运转的同时

284
00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:22,879
财富与公平的争夺开始撕裂国内

285
00:11:22,879 --> 00:11:25,460
一旦国家内部出现分歧

286
00:11:28,799 --> 00:11:30,100
若发生这种情况

287
00:11:30,100 --> 00:11:32,259
局势会迅速恶化

288
00:11:32,259 --> 00:11:35,580
市场可能暴跌20%至40%

289
00:11:35,580 --> 00:11:38,259
长期债务持有者将遭受重大损失

290
00:11:38,259 --> 00:11:41,940
全球经济权力格局可能快速转变

291
00:11:41,940 --> 00:11:43,580
然而不必如此

292
00:11:43,580 --> 00:11:46,700
或许会是可控的衰退

293
00:11:46,700 --> 00:11:49,480
这需要我们长期未见的举措

294
00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,009
这就是两党合作

295
00:11:52,009 --> 00:11:52,690
例如

296
00:11:52,690 --> 00:11:56,149
雷·达里奥提出了他所谓的‘三百分比方案’

297
00:11:56,149 --> 00:12:01,120
通过削减开支和增加收入，将赤字减少约3%

298
00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,509
同时与中国谈判实现互利的成果

299
00:12:04,509 --> 00:12:06,850
这里的权衡是经济增长放缓

300
00:12:06,850 --> 00:12:08,450
但稳定性会提升

301
00:12:08,450 --> 00:12:10,789
美国仍能保持领导地位

302
00:12:10,789 --> 00:12:12,389
但不会是唯一的

303
00:12:12,389 --> 00:12:14,250
或者还有第三条路径

304
00:12:14,250 --> 00:12:15,370
现在重启

305
00:12:15,370 --> 00:12:17,269
这是所有人想要的

306
00:12:17,269 --> 00:12:19,509
但很可能不会发生

307
00:12:19,509 --> 00:12:23,090
在这种情景下整个国家团结一致

308
00:12:23,090 --> 00:12:25,379
人工智能基础设施提升

309
00:12:27,379 --> 00:12:29,139
延续当前周期

310
00:12:29,139 --> 00:12:32,419
像历史上最成功的帝国那样

311
00:12:32,419 --> 00:12:36,919
但需要前所未有的团结

312
00:12:36,919 --> 00:12:37,139
现在

313
00:12:37,139 --> 00:12:40,639
还有一个常被提及的场景

314
00:12:40,639 --> 00:12:42,600
雷·达里奥未提及的

315
00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,039
这就是所谓的‘AI重启’

316
00:12:45,039 --> 00:12:46,789
基本论点认为

317
00:12:46,789 --> 00:12:52,200
若人工智能使某些行业生产力提升5到10倍

318
00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:56,330
可将零和博弈转化为正和增长

319
00:12:56,330 --> 00:12:58,809
让所有人共享繁荣

320
00:12:58,809 --> 00:13:00,769
无需争夺有限资源

321
00:13:00,769 --> 00:13:03,840
理论上这种生产力能缓解债务压力

322
00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,080
提高所有人生活水平

323
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,200
真正确保国家全面繁荣

324
00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:10,399
但有个前提

325
00:13:10,399 --> 00:13:14,200
收益需全社会共享

326
00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,379
而非仅少数人暴富

327
00:13:17,379 --> 00:13:19,539
目前我们尚未做到

328
00:13:19,539 --> 00:13:21,220
就我个人看法

329
00:13:21,220 --> 00:13:23,059
若这些情况属实

330
00:13:23,059 --> 00:13:25,360
以及我的投资策略

331
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:26,539
这就是你想要的答案

332
00:13:26,539 --> 00:13:26,820
看吧

333
00:13:26,820 --> 00:13:29,620
我认为达里奥的框架基本正确

334
00:13:29,620 --> 00:13:31,169
周期确实会重复

335
00:13:31,169 --> 00:13:32,929
警示信号已显现

336
00:13:32,929 --> 00:13:34,970
上周的慕尼黑安全会议

337
00:13:34,970 --> 00:13:37,840
基本确认我们正在经历转型期

338
00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:39,200
无论是否愿意

339
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:43,279
但在采取重大行动前需注意三点

340
00:13:43,279 --> 00:13:47,820
首先达里奥自2022年起就做此预测

341
00:13:47,820 --> 00:13:50,840
尽管多数理论成真

342
00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,970
我们尚未见证全面崩溃

343
00:13:52,970 --> 00:13:58,330
现实是，他描述的周期通常需要数十年时间

344
00:13:58,330 --> 00:14:00,230
而不是几个月或几年

345
00:14:00,230 --> 00:14:03,470
也许他提前了并不意味着他错了

346
00:14:03,470 --> 00:14:07,690
这可能比现在大多数人注意力持续时间长得多

347
00:14:07,690 --> 00:14:10,960
当他说卖出债务买入黄金可能有效时

348
00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:12,879
如果是对冲基金或亿万富翁

349
00:14:12,879 --> 00:14:13,840
对于普通民众

350
00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,759
全仓押注单一资产是个糟糕主意

351
00:14:16,759 --> 00:14:17,879
最好的做法是

352
00:14:17,879 --> 00:14:20,720
尽可能分散投资多种资产

353
00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,200
这样就有了回旋余地

354
00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,919
如果黄金出现问题的话

355
00:14:25,919 --> 00:14:30,120
雷·达里奥甚至承认周期未必会这样发展

356
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:31,580
如果国家保持生产力

357
00:14:31,580 --> 00:14:33,080
收入超过支出

358
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:34,879
并找到共赢的方法

359
00:14:34,879 --> 00:14:36,340
建立互利关系对我来说

360
00:14:36,340 --> 00:14:37,840
这不是末日情景

361
00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:39,659
这只是建议如何

362
00:14:39,659 --> 00:14:42,480
我们完全可以避免这种情况

363
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:43,340
这就是为什么

364
00:14:43,340 --> 00:14:45,080
我觉得这些文章很有趣

365
00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:45,580
我认为

366
00:14:45,580 --> 00:14:48,700
瑞·达利欧对他的观点很有说服力

367
00:14:48,700 --> 00:14:52,159
但这种情况可能需要数十年才能显现

368
00:14:52,159 --> 00:14:56,240
如果你在场外观望等待买入时机或崩盘

369
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,580
可能要等待很长时间才能等到崩盘

370
00:14:59,580 --> 00:15:01,320
这甚至不能保证发生

371
00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:02,929
就我的投资而言

372
00:15:02,929 --> 00:15:04,029
这并不意外

373
00:15:04,029 --> 00:15:06,850
我只是定期定额投资市场

374
00:15:06,850 --> 00:15:08,139
通过指数基金

375
00:15:08,139 --> 00:15:10,840
我持有少量比特币ETF

376
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,250
我拥有一些房地产

377
00:15:12,250 --> 00:15:14,590
我还持有免税市政债券

378
00:15:14,590 --> 00:15:18,299
所以如果市场崩盘或出现良机

379
00:15:18,299 --> 00:15:19,299
我可以低买高卖

380
00:15:19,299 --> 00:15:21,759
但回到雷·达里奥的信息

381
00:15:21,759 --> 00:15:24,100
这不是末日情景

382
00:15:24,100 --> 00:15:26,929
他预测的美国将发生的情况

383
00:15:26,929 --> 00:15:30,590
只是发生在拒绝适应的国家

384
00:15:30,590 --> 00:15:33,240
我认为同样的道理也适用于你们

385
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:37,980
受益最大的是做好准备的人

386
00:15:37,980 --> 00:15:38,320
不是

387
00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,320
那些认为一切不变的人

388
00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:42,740
无论他是否完全正确

389
00:15:42,740 --> 00:15:44,960
大部分正确或完全错误

390
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:46,519
世界正在变化

391
00:15:46,519 --> 00:15:49,059
能够随之改变的人

392
00:15:49,059 --> 00:15:50,539
将是准备最充分的人

393
00:15:50,539 --> 00:15:52,779
就在你点击点赞并订阅之后

394
00:15:52,779 --> 00:15:54,279
如果你还没做的话，再说一次

395
00:15:54,279 --> 00:15:56,840
如果你欣赏我尽快发布这个视频的努力

396
00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,279
我在随机的Airbnb拍摄

397
00:15:59,279 --> 00:16:00,240
立即订阅

398
00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:01,820
尽量在下方评论

399
00:16:01,820 --> 00:16:04,240
因为我会尽可能回复所有评论

400
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,139
并查看描述中的赞助商

401
00:16:06,139 --> 00:16:06,899
再次感谢

402
00:16:06,899 --> 00:16:08,000
直到下次再见

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