【NaNa说美股】20260615空头被抬走了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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周一美姨呢达成了协议

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关了几个月的霍尔木兹海峡

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终于将在本周五全面开放

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油价大跌

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锣鼓喧天

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鞭炮齐鸣

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哈比特币黄金美股今年全都涨疯了

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简直就是普天同庆

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据说电子版的谅解备忘录呢已经签了

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正式签字仪式要等这周五

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6月19号在瑞士举行

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对于风险资产来说

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这无疑是一个重磅利好

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但这份协议呢并非说毫无隐患

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双方关于海峡通行费的表态仍存在明显分歧

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哪方强调

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霍尔木兹海峡未来将会依据国际海洋法

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长期保持开放

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不收取任何通行费用

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就跟战前的情况一样

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而伊朗方面呢则表示

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只在60天内允许船只免费通过海峡

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未来仍计划征收通行费

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虽然以后保不齐还会出什么幺蛾子的

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但是对于当下的市场来说

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60天已经足不够了哈

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足以让市场重新定价风险资产

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美股上涨

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股市今天全线爆发

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纳指呢表现最为强势

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涨超3%

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科技股和AI板块

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重新成为资金追逐的核心方向标

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普涨1.65%

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道指收涨0.92%

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绝大多数板块都走高

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只有油气板块大跌

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重仓石油开采与勘探的那些传统能源巨头

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集体遭遇了获利盘抛售

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成为今天盘面上少有的重灾区

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随着地缘政治溢价快速消退

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WTI原油期货价格跌了4%

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跌破80美元

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市场最担心的供应中断风险呢正在迅速消失哈

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各股接下来估计要忙着回补原有库存了

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因此油价短期虽然受到了冲击

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但是未来数周呢

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也不排除出现库存回补驱动的技术性反弹

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标普500指数今天跳空高开

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这是一个多头非常强势的一个信号

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一举战胜了月均线与10日均线的双重阻力

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从技术面来看

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指数近期面临的两大压力源呢

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都已经得到了明显的缓解

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第一个就是前两周中东局势带来的地缘风险

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第二呢就是此前下跌爆发的空头交易

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高盛大宗经纪业务近期公布的数据显示

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在过去两周下跌期间的

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交易员们抢购大量的空头头寸

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许多机构在中东局势恶化呢期间

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就持续增加防御仓位哈

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而当这个协议中最终落地后

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这些空投就不得不迅速回补了

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今天市场最重要的推动力量

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并不仅仅只是来自新增买盘

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还有来自大规模对冲头寸

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解除空头回补所形成的逼空效应

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随着协议落地以及空头回补展开呢

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指数又重新获得了向上突破的动力

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目前市场最重要的观察点

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在此转移到7600点附近

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这个重要的阻力区域

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如果能够有效突破哈

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那么本轮上涨行情呢有机会进一步延续

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反之则仍然存在

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这个围绕美联储会议展开高位震荡的可能

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摩根大通交易台

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在上周初对美股转为战术性谨慎之后

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现在哈就刚刚最新报告出来

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右转重回战术性

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看多了嗯

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核心交易判断呢就是地缘政治僵局的破冰

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美伊停火协议以及霍尔木兹海峡的重开

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将会直接驱动全球机构资金

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展开一轮猛烈的重新冒险潮

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就继续追逐风险

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并且断言呢

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标普500指数极大概率将会借此势头

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一举突破7600点这个重要关口

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这个与高盛所说的要投资者小心后劲不足

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这个截然相反

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小魔就高喊by the deep嗯

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顺应这一股战术性多头趋势

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冲分哈

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就是这个小喇叭滴滴滴的吹哈

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充当了牛市棋手

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不过按照经验来说

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下跌通常不是发生在加息当天

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而是在之前就会发生了

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到了加息当天

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能卖的人早就已经卖了

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所以这消息呢早就已经被计入了

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价格消耗的差不多了

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只要没有超出这个市场预期

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那问题就不大

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相比之下

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周三的美联储会议才是真正的核心考验

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与鲍威尔时代不同

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华尔街对于这位新掌门人的政策风格

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沟通方式以及通胀容忍度都还不够熟悉

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所以明天周二即时啊有所下跌或者回落

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更有可能是规避周三美联储会议的不确定性

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而提前进行的防御性仓位调整嗯

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但是明天也不一定会下跌了

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也可能会冲高

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甚至突破7600点之后

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在尾盘稍稍稍的这个回落

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让我感到惊讶的是

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今天市场风险偏好这么火热

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小盘股的表现呢却落后于大盘

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IWM只涨了0.82%

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这要远不及嗯

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纳指与标普

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这个主要原因可能是

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10年期美债收益率

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仍然在4.5%附近徘徊

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债券市场

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对于本周的美联储会议还是比较谨慎的

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金融股在罗素2000中占据很大的权重

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周三美联储决议在即

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市场正在激烈博弈收益率曲线的变动

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这导致小盘股中的这个区域性银行板块哈

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今天就普遍采取了防御性缩量观望的态度

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没能够提供向上的助推力

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导致了这些对利率最敏感的小盘股

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在今天这一波大涨行情中就被边缘化了

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太空经济领头羊space x股价延续了疯狂走势

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再度大涨19.6%

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股价达到了192.5美元

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市值呢达到了2.52万亿美元

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随着大量资金持续涌入这支超级明星股行

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市场对于SPACEX的讨论已经从最初的情绪炒作

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逐渐转向更深层次的估值与成长性的分析

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不过呢在进入纳指100之前的这15天

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资金估计还会继续无脑分炒的哈

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啊

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这反正拉多高都会有纳值100

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这个老实人做接盘侠吗

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所以呢哪怕呃这个股价涨得觉得再离谱

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也不要轻易的去冒险做空它

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嗯等它进入纳指100之后哈

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才可能会开始挤泡沫

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这股票其实就相当于2020年2021年

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那时候的特斯拉市场对它的分歧越大

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股价就会越涨

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交易员们买他的股票

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并不是买公司现在的财务基本面

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而是当做买未来几年的期权买的哈

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呃明天这个股票就要上期权交易了

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赌场到时候可以玩的更嗨

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与此同时呢

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前几天因为SPACEX上市而遭遇严重抽血的

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二线太空概念股已开始出现分化

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那些缺乏核心竞争力

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只靠概念炒作来维持估值的小市值公司

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依然表现疲弱

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而具备真实交付能力和商业订单支撑的企业呢

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重新获得了资金的关注

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VK lab就是其中最典型的代表

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在连续调整之后

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公司股价今年强劲反弹了6.7%

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从资金流向来看

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市场正在逐渐从前面几个月

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只要设置太空股就买的一个情绪

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交易转向更加理性的龙头筛选的阶段

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上周五视频咱们就说过了哈

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当时这个股价跌到100美元

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我们就可以重新买入建底仓了

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后面越跌可以越买

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下周一就要加入这个纳值100了

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航空股呢集体上涨

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达美航空日内冲高回落

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仍然收涨1.22%

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美伊协议带来的油价雪崩

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直接就转化为航空公司的利润

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肉眼可见的增长

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含燃油成本作为盘丝最大的固定支出

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油价暴跌呢将会大幅缓解寒食

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在今年夏季出行高峰期的利润率压力

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半导体板块呢则是迎来了另一场狂欢哈

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费城半导体指数今天又创新高了嗯

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市场对于AI硬件产业链的乐观预期

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不但没有降温

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反而还在持续升温

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美光科技今天涨超10.80%

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涨成份股

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消息面上

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至少有两家投行

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相继大幅上调了对它的目标价嗯

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其中TDCOVI呢

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将美光科技目标价从660美元

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上调至1500美元

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加拿大皇家银行呢

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这加工标价从525美元

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大幅提升到1200美元

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虽然这些目标价看起来极具争议

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但是背后反映出的核心逻辑非常的明确

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就市场越来越相信

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HBM高带宽

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存储和AI服务器建设浪潮带来的需求增长

213
00:09:46,269 --> 00:09:49,859
可能会比市场此前预期的还要持续更久

214
00:09:49,859 --> 00:09:52,418
瑞银最新行业报告也同样指出

215
00:09:52,418 --> 00:09:56,499
本轮半导体设备景气周期的持续时间和强度

216
00:09:56,499 --> 00:09:58,259
都远超市场预期

217
00:09:58,259 --> 00:10:00,179
所以这个数此提振哈

218
00:10:00,179 --> 00:10:02,839
这整个AI硬件都涨疯了

219
00:10:02,839 --> 00:10:04,798
英伟达今年向sec

220
00:10:04,798 --> 00:10:08,599
提交了一项七批次票据发行申请

221
00:10:08,599 --> 00:10:11,960
债券期限呢从两年期到30年期不等

222
00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,259
计划筹资250亿美元

223
00:10:14,259 --> 00:10:17,200
吸引的认购额高达850亿美元

224
00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:18,279
就是三倍多

225
00:10:18,279 --> 00:10:21,960
这也说明了市场资金对英伟达的这个财务

226
00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:23,529
基本面的高度认可

227
00:10:23,529 --> 00:10:27,210
这将是英伟达5年来首次发行的债券

228
00:10:27,210 --> 00:10:30,899
上一次还要追溯到这2021年6月份

229
00:10:30,899 --> 00:10:34,450
当时公司募资了50亿美元

230
00:10:34,450 --> 00:10:37,169
巨头们如今也是扎堆的发债哈

231
00:10:37,169 --> 00:10:40,970
不过呢小妹他亚马逊他们那些巨头大规模融资

232
00:10:40,970 --> 00:10:45,240
很大程度上呢是为了应对数据中心建设带来的

233
00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:46,899
资本支出压力

234
00:10:46,899 --> 00:10:50,039
而英伟达是完全不缺钱的

235
00:10:50,039 --> 00:10:51,840
按照目前的市场预测

236
00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:55,879
公司明年只有现金流有望突破2000亿美元

237
00:10:55,879 --> 00:10:57,840
是整个AI产业链中

238
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,029
现金创造能力最强的企业之一

239
00:11:01,029 --> 00:11:03,830
因此这个250亿美元的债券

240
00:11:03,830 --> 00:11:07,340
更像是一种资本结构优化工具哈

241
00:11:07,340 --> 00:11:08,659
并不是公司缺钱

242
00:11:08,659 --> 00:11:12,110
公司只是希望通过发行成本相对较低

243
00:11:12,110 --> 00:11:14,029
期限较长的债券呢

244
00:11:14,029 --> 00:11:16,429
提前锁定长期资金

245
00:11:16,429 --> 00:11:20,490
在不影响AA级信用品级的情况之下

246
00:11:20,490 --> 00:11:22,460
获得更多的战略弹药

247
00:11:22,460 --> 00:11:24,960
未来无论是投资OpenAI嗯

248
00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:26,100
onto pk也好

249
00:11:26,100 --> 00:11:28,818
或者支持其他生态伙伴扩张

250
00:11:28,818 --> 00:11:30,918
又或者进行潜在的收购

251
00:11:30,918 --> 00:11:35,288
因为大家都将会拥有更充裕的资金优势呃

252
00:11:35,288 --> 00:11:36,629
所以也可能是担心

253
00:11:36,629 --> 00:11:40,289
未来这个市场流动性可能没有现在这个充裕哦

254
00:11:40,289 --> 00:11:42,690
股价今天也跳空高开哈

255
00:11:42,690 --> 00:11:44,429
再次逼近了月均线

256
00:11:44,429 --> 00:11:47,590
如果能够站稳月均线以及二百十五美元

257
00:11:47,590 --> 00:11:48,669
双重阻力的

258
00:11:48,669 --> 00:11:51,259
短期趋势将会再次转强

259
00:11:51,259 --> 00:11:54,419
可以打开新一轮冲击的向上空间

260
00:11:54,419 --> 00:11:56,279
如果这个位置套牢盘

261
00:11:56,279 --> 00:11:58,259
还有做空盘的力量过强

262
00:11:58,259 --> 00:12:00,580
导致股价无法有效突破

263
00:12:00,580 --> 00:12:02,360
并且站稳月均线的话

264
00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,600
那后市将会面临二次回踩

265
00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,740
甚至震荡下旬支撑的这个风险

266
00:12:07,740 --> 00:12:08,620
相比之下

267
00:12:08,620 --> 00:12:10,980
老2AAMD走势强多了哈

268
00:12:10,980 --> 00:12:13,059
股价今天续涨了近7%

269
00:12:13,059 --> 00:12:14,480
又创历史新高了

270
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,639
花旗呢将它的目标价从460美元

271
00:12:17,639 --> 00:12:20,259
大幅上调到575美元

272
00:12:20,259 --> 00:12:22,259
并且上调品级值买入

273
00:12:22,259 --> 00:12:23,340
分析师认为

274
00:12:23,340 --> 00:12:27,620
H的新一代呃这个AI显卡产品逐步放量

275
00:12:27,620 --> 00:12:29,980
AAMD未来两年的AI业务

276
00:12:29,980 --> 00:12:32,379
收入预测呢需要重新评估

277
00:12:32,379 --> 00:12:35,460
其实也有一大堆的华尔街分析师们掺多

278
00:12:35,460 --> 00:12:36,899
那个英伟达的股价

279
00:12:36,899 --> 00:12:39,259
目标股价都涨到三百四百美元了

280
00:12:39,259 --> 00:12:40,580
可是没有卵用哈

281
00:12:40,580 --> 00:12:41,220
一年了

282
00:12:41,220 --> 00:12:43,769
股价还在200附近那个上下震荡

283
00:12:43,769 --> 00:12:47,279
传媒行业呢也迎来了一笔重量级并购

284
00:12:47,279 --> 00:12:50,519
福克斯宣布以每股160美元的价格

285
00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:54,649
通过现金加股票方式收购流媒体平台沃库

286
00:12:54,649 --> 00:12:58,090
预计这笔交易将会在明年上半年完成

287
00:12:58,090 --> 00:13:01,909
后续呢仍需获得福克斯与vocal的股东们批准

288
00:13:04,049 --> 00:13:05,210
交易完成之后

289
00:13:05,210 --> 00:13:07,850
现有的福克斯股东将会持有合并后

290
00:13:07,850 --> 00:13:09,669
公司约73%的股份

291
00:13:09,669 --> 00:13:10,769
而WORKO股东呢

292
00:13:10,769 --> 00:13:13,479
将会持有约27%的股份嗯

293
00:13:13,479 --> 00:13:14,538
交易完成之后

294
00:13:14,538 --> 00:13:16,719
福克斯旗下的体育赛事

295
00:13:16,719 --> 00:13:19,458
新闻和娱乐内容将会全面接入

296
00:13:19,458 --> 00:13:22,179
拥有超过1亿活跃用户的OPPO平台

297
00:13:22,179 --> 00:13:25,419
福克斯股价今年大跌超过15%

298
00:13:25,419 --> 00:13:28,740
反映出投资者对于公司承担120亿美元

299
00:13:28,740 --> 00:13:30,589
新增融资压力的担忧

300
00:13:30,589 --> 00:13:32,288
而沪这边股价呢

301
00:13:32,288 --> 00:13:34,869
在此前暴涨20%的基础上

302
00:13:34,869 --> 00:13:37,360
稍微有这个小幅回落哈

303
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:39,879
目前它的收盘价140美元

304
00:13:39,879 --> 00:13:42,519
较福克斯的160美元每股的收购价

305
00:13:42,519 --> 00:13:44,389
依然存在着套利空间

306
00:13:44,389 --> 00:13:46,929
比特币这一边持续反弹哈

307
00:13:46,929 --> 00:13:49,399
从上6.6万美元上方

308
00:13:49,399 --> 00:13:50,720
就说那个MICHAELC罗

309
00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:54,039
现在啊又重新开始买入比特币了

310
00:13:54,039 --> 00:13:58,200
嗯带动了这个加密货币股呢也一起上涨

311
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,860
作为行业风向标的corn base今年涨超6%

312
00:14:01,860 --> 00:14:05,259
股价跳空高开之后触及月均线阻力

313
00:14:05,259 --> 00:14:06,220
稍稍回落

314
00:14:06,220 --> 00:14:11,519
收出一根带有缠三引线的这么一根嗯倒锤子线

315
00:14:11,519 --> 00:14:15,620
如果比特币能够继续保持多头动能哈

316
00:14:15,620 --> 00:14:18,019
那qun base也可以继续看好

317
00:14:18,019 --> 00:14:20,759
就他不是走这个独立行情

318
00:14:20,759 --> 00:14:23,759
完全跟着币圈的呃情绪走

319
00:14:23,759 --> 00:14:28,690
今天他这个跳空缺口能否在明天周2日间行

320
00:14:28,690 --> 00:14:32,549
以及周三美联储议息会议的冲击之下死守不补

321
00:14:32,549 --> 00:14:35,568
就是短期内不回补这个缺口

322
00:14:35,568 --> 00:14:39,168
将会成为判断本轮加密板块反弹

323
00:14:39,168 --> 00:14:40,969
使短暂逼空诱多呢

324
00:14:40,969 --> 00:14:45,139
还是中期趋势反转的一个关键的试金石

325
00:14:45,139 --> 00:14:45,559
行

326
00:14:45,559 --> 00:14:47,159
今天我们就说到这里

327
00:14:47,159 --> 00:14:49,059
那我们明天见拜拜

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