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巴菲特认为
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对非专业投资者而言
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标普500指数基金是最佳投资工具
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他多次强调
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普通人无需费力选股或依赖理财顾问
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只需通过低成本指数基金
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长期持有美国优质企业即可获得稳定回报
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今天我们要谈的就是标普500
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以及标普500和纳斯达克100的对比
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并给出我的分析和个人观点
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我相信对大多数人会有帮助
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一巴菲特的预言
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巴菲特对于标普500指数的推崇由来已久
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早在2007年就有一个著名赌约
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巴菲特与对冲基金经理对赌100万美元
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断言标普500指数基金
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10年内将跑赢任意五只对冲基金组合
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结果标普500年化回报率达7.1%
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对冲基金仅2.2%
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以完胜结果印证了巴菲特的观点
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另外数据显示
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在过去10年和20年
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巴菲特的伯克希尔公司表现都没能跑赢
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标普500全收益指数
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这反而从侧面印证了他的观点
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即使是巴菲特这样的投资大师
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长期来看也难以持续战胜市场
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在2013年致股东信中
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巴菲特明确指示
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其遗产信托
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将90%资金投入标普500指数基金
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如先锋500指数基金仅10%配置短期国债
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这也显示出其对这一指数长期增长的信心
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二标普500与纳斯达克100
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标普500为什么这么好
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以至于让股神都推崇备至
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根本原因在于
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它涵盖了美国市场上最好的前500家公司
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标普500是衡量美国股市整体表现的
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核心指数之一
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由标准普尔公司
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现属标普道琼斯指数公司于1957年编制
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他根据上市公司的流通市值加权
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且顾名思义
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涵盖了美国500家最大上市公司的股票表现
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涵盖约80%的美国股市总市值
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因此它涵盖的行业种类多
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范围广
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并且标普500对成分公司定期进行严格筛选
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公司需要满足市值超145亿美元
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盈利为正
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流动性高50%以上股份可流通等条件
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并每季度调整成份股
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半个多世纪以来
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尽管市场经历无数起起伏伏
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但标普500的历史年化回报率接近10%
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是非常不错的长期成绩
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另一个受到广泛关注的指数是纳斯达克100
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它由纳斯达克交易所上市的100家市值最大
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流动性最强的非金融公司组成
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涵盖科技
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生物技术
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消费服务
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医疗保健等领域
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另外由于成分股比标普500少很多
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所以纳指100更容易出现集中度过高的问题
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纳斯达克100指数采用修正市值加权法
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即首先计算每家公司基于流通股数的市值
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然后乘以权重因子进行调整
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这种加权方法既尊重市值规模
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又通过权重因子
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避免个别公司占比过大
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根据调整机制
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当该指数最大成分股所代表的比例
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超过预设阈值时
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即占该指数4.5%或以上权重的
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大型公司的综合权重
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加起来超过48%时
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就要进行特别再平衡
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作为对比
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纳斯达克100的成分股数量是100家
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而且仅在纳斯达克交易所选取前100
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大流通市值的非金融股
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因此也不包含任何纽交所上市企业
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那么标普500和纳指100谁更较好一些呢
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这个话题可以展开出非常大的信息量
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我们下面就来展开聊聊三美国资产的精华
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学习巴菲特
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我们要做的不仅仅是接受一下简单科普
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或者抄抄作业而已
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而是要争取站在巴菲特这样巨人的肩膀上
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思考更多东西
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获得更多收获
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虽然巴菲特一直推荐标普500
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但我个人选择的是纳指100
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而非标普500
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这其中一个主要原因是
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我认为标普500的精选程度还不够
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再具体一点说
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标普500中包含了一些我并不想要的行业
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这些行业包括金融
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能源
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电信等
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为什么我不想要这些行业呢
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因为他们不代表美国最先进的生产力
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这些美国公司和他们的国际同行比
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不存在什么
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只有他们能做
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而国际同行不会做的事
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也没有什么足够高的技术壁垒
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我们可以问自己几个问题
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美国银行或chess在产品和服务上
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能够遥遥领先于招商银行吗
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美孚石油有什么技术是中国石油没有的吗
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ATTXFINITY的产品和服务比移通
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联通电信更好吗
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答案全是否定的
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另外美国的金融能源
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电信等行业的营收也几乎都来源于美国境内
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而非全球
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再一次说明
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他们和其他国家专注于本国业务的同行相比
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没什么不同
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但当我们看到科技消费医药的时候
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感觉就完全不一样了
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美国的头部科技公司如苹果
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微软
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英伟达
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谷歌亚马逊
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高通博通
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AMD等头部消费公司
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沃尔玛COSTCO
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可口可乐
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麦当劳
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星巴克等头部医药公司
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例如辉瑞
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强生李莱默克等
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全都是被全球市场所依赖的
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他们的产品和服务也全都是其他国际同行
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难以复制的
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因此他们护城河深厚
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毛利和roe都极高
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而且他们几乎都是非周期行业
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油价的涨跌
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利率的波动会对能源或金融公司带来很大影响
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但对他们的业务来说影响微乎其微
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因此美国这三个行业的头部企业
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是真正美国最精华的资产
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并且伴随这些企业的成长
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他们在标普500中所占的权重也越来越大
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早已取代金融成为第一大板块
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如果我们把科技板块去掉
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那么标普500的表现会差不少
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这也证明了这些企业
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确实是当下美国的精华资产
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在2025年3月底
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市场情绪几乎绝望的情况下
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我在星球分享过一个展望
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和上面大体是一个意思
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但当时是从基本面看
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短期的急速调整
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现在回头看看看看说的是对是错
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总之纳斯达克100中的几乎每一家公司
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都拥有以下属性
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非周期行业
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全球市场护城河极深
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并凸显美国的特殊竞争力
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四防御力与攻击力对比
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标普500和纳斯达克100
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市场普遍认为前者更稳健
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即年化回报相对低一些
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但潜在风险也要小一些
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而后者成长性更强
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但波动更大
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潜在风险更大
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不可否认的是
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在历史上
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纳斯达克100曾经有过一次
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80%的恐怖回撤
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当时的背景是互联网泡沫
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2000年时
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纳斯达克100指数的市盈率飙到100倍以上
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而那个时候大量成分公司的商业模式并不牢靠
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盈利能力也不稳健
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完全靠投机获得超高估值
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最终一泻千里
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但在这一次泡沫出清后
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纳指100在每一轮调整中的最大回撤
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并不比标普500更大
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在2008年次贷危机时
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标普500最大回撤57.7%
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而纳斯达克100最大回撤54.5%
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也就是说
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纳指100的回撤反而还比标普500更小
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而且也率先见底
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在2018年四季度
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标普500最大回撤20.0%
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纳指100最大回撤23.9%
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这一次标普500防御力胜出
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在2020年疫情熔断
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标普500最大回撤35.4%
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纳指100最大回撤30.44%
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这次标普500防御力又一次输给纳指100
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在2022年激进加息的背景下
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标普500最大回撤27.5%
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纳指100最大回撤37.7%
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这次标普500完胜
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可能是因为更侧重于成长性的
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纳指100对于利率提升的敏感度更大
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我们可以清楚地看到
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除了互联网泡沫这种特殊背景外
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标普500在市场调整期的防御力并不一定就好
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于纳值100
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胜率甚至只有一半
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但防御力之外
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攻击力呢
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近5年标普500累计上涨97%
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纳斯达克100累计上涨123%
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近10年标普500累计上涨199%
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纳斯达克100累计上涨398%
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近15年标普500累计上涨494%
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纳斯达克100累计上涨1012%
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看更长期的历史表现
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标普500年化回报为9.9%
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纳斯达克100年化回报为13.5%
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换句话说
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纳指100的防御力并不比标普500弱多少
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但是攻击力翻倍
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你怎么选
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我们这里谈到的防御力和攻击力
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就是投资中夏普比率的简单化理解
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夏普比率是衡量投资组合风险
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调整后收益的核心指标
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由诺贝尔经济学奖得主
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威廉夏普于1966年提出
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他通过比较投资组合的超额收益
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超越无风险收益的部分与波动风险标准差
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评估单位风险带来的超额回报
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纳指100长期有更好的夏普比率
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本质还是基本面决定的
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成分公司的业绩增长更快
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盈利能力更强
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表现自然就更好
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当然巴菲特推荐的标普500也是非常好的
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长期选择
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是过去这些年市场上除了纳指外
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表现最好的主流指数
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另外巴菲特是美国例外论的坚定拥护者
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因此即使是美国国内传统行业
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在他看来也是特殊的存在
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我作为一个普通参与者
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也相信美国例外论
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但我更相信美国例外论带来的其他影响
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那就是美国企业在持续创新和全球化背景下
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更强的竞争力与盈利能力
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标普500虽好
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但我们仍然可以站在巨人的肩膀上好上加好
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如果你喜欢本期视频
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希望可以点赞关注
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支持一波
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这将对我有很大的帮助