【视野环球财经】20260414美股 搭顺风车，先炒为敬！QQQ突破，SPY差口气！VIX平仓能否助推新高？NVDA、AMD、AMZN、GOOG雄起！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年4月14号

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周二晚上的8.15分

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今天呢市场是受到消息面的利好

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还有CCTA资金面利好共振的影响

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四大指数是大幅上涨

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纳斯达克100指数表现非常的出色啊

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今天呢是完成了突破啊

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稍后会讲一讲

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另外呢标普也是多数板块走高

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那么消息面什么利好呢

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呃美国总统川普啊

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是告诉媒体说

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未来的两天

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有可能会在巴基斯坦与伊朗再次举行会谈

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另外呢

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伊朗方面也正在考虑

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暂停霍尔木兹海峡的航运啊

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以避免破坏这个谈判的氛围

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那么在霍尔木兹海峡的通行方面呢

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也是有一些新的变化啊

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呃根据华尔街日报的报道说

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已经有20艘经过美国批准的船只

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通过了封锁线啊

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但是这些船呢是没有停靠伊朗港口的

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现在的市场呢是关注周四的新一轮谈判

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现在的双方都已经提出了新的报价啊

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大家听听这个报价怎么样啊

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根据报道呢

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伊朗是暂时他提出啊

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我们会暂停核计划5年

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美国方面说要求暂停20年啊

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就跟买东西一样对吧

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你要一口高价对吧

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我来还还价

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最后大家一折中会不会就是10年呢

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其实啊不管是多少年

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双方对谈判的条件已经松口啊

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这就说明一件事

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说明双方都想停火

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都承受不起长期封锁的代价

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这个也是市场正在压铸的

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朝着利好方向发展

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特别是啊咱们上个星期也给过数据啊

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说这个星期CCTA会爆买

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属于在历史上比较大的买入

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所以大家正好对吧

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消息面不错

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CCTA我跟着你搭一个顺风车啊

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咱们就先炒为敬

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回头呢真的再打起来

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大不了再撤出来嘛对吧

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多大点事嘛

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所以呢今天有很多的个股都是完成了突破啊

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包括刚才谈到的QQQ啊

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但是标普呢还差着一口气

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咱们稍后讲解

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另外呢哪些个股完成了突破呢

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有不少啊

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我都列在上面啊

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等会给大家来讲一讲他们后面怎么看好

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首先我们还是把一个简单的数据该过

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要过一下呃

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就是来自于3月份的PPPI

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3月份的这个PPI啊

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是环比上涨0.5%

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低于预期的一点一

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较前值的0.7有所放缓

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同比上涨是4%

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低于预期的4.6

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但是高于前值的3.4

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核心PPI呢是环比上涨0.1

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预期是0.6

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较前值0.5有所放缓

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核心PPI同比涨幅从3.9降到了3.8

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低于预期的4.2

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那么剔除食品能源和贸易价格的超级核心PPI

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是环比上涨0.2%

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前值呢是0.5%啊

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同比上涨3.6%呃

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那么前值呢是这个3.5啊

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好这个呢就是今天的一些简单的经济数据啊

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接下来呢咱们就讲一个关于资金流向啊

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就是大家可能比较关心

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标普有没有机会去打一个新高出来啊

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毕竟现在呢离这个6980的突破

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也不太远了

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离7000呢也就是一步之遥

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那么这些东西呢其实还是要看什么呢

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看资金流向啊

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我们说市场大的

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这个决定市场走向的是大的资金的集体流向呃

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他们这些东西呢会推着市场往前走

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咱们散户呢一般是作为跟随者啊

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在后边咱们跟着喝点汤就可以了啊

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咱们想吃肉

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想这个翻江倒海

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在某些个股上搞得定

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但是在大盘上搞不定啊

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所以咱们做好跟随

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那么现在的情况呢是有一个

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相信今天大家看到很多媒体都在报道

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关于weeks的明天的到期的情况

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我也拿出来和大家讲一下

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这个后边如果用我们听得懂的话的语言

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标普在什么样的情况下能够完成突破啊

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什么样的环境对他是最友好的

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好我们首先看一下weeks

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现在的值

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大家可以看到啊

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现在的weeks呢是已经跌到了18

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对不对啊

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这里边呢有一个问题呢

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是明天也就是4月15号周三啊

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就是周三他会有月期权的到期

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并且呢在4月17号

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这个去清算WX的这个波动率的空头头寸啊

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从而去消除一个正的伽马值

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那么这个呢就会使市场的波动性更大

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就意味着标普的稳定性啊

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我们说稳定性代表着它的振幅啊

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稳定性会更差

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那么明天是一个什么样的情况呢

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明天呢有49%的weeks的看涨期权

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未平仓合约大概是380万份

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还有差不多58%的WX的

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看跌的期权的未平仓合约

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大概是有180万份

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合约总量是560万份左右

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这个数量非常非常的庞大

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在WX的持仓量的历史上排名前七

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那么所以在合约到期之后啊

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有一些东西就被松开了

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特别是在伽马值方面就被松开了

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这就意味着从明天之后

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也就是4月16号到17号的标普数据

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我们如果连续去看啊

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就对于标普的压注来看

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目前的趋势呢是富伽马占优

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这就意味着市场的波动会开始起来

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那么如果基本面和消息面能够保持稳定

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那么市场就存在突破历史新高的可能性

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什么叫做消息面和基本面保持稳定呢

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消息面就是不翻车

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不要再打起来对吧

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周四谈判就谈判

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别还没谈就先掀桌子了对吧

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先炸起来了

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那个就叫不稳定

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就叫做意外

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现在市场预期的情况是稳定维持到那个时候

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唉这是我们说消息面不翻车就有机会

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第一个

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第二个是我们如果用定量的方式去表达

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我们看标普啊

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标普呢它每天不是有一个波动吗

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上下在涨对吧

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有一个振幅吗

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呃买盘在这个突破新高前

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慢慢我们讲昨天谈到一个小小容涨的发生

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什么样的情况下会维持下去呢

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只要标普500指数的实际波动率

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接近或低于15%

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如果换算成标普500指数每天的波动幅度啊

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振幅啊

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低于1%

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不管涨跌啊

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不管涨跌

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振幅低于1%

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那么逢低买入的容涨买盘就会存在

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它就不会破坏这个结构

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它就会持续的诶

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稍微跌一跌

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还又有人买

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跌不动对吧

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然后呢慢慢往上推

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每天涨1.0点几

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零点几零点几

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这个就可以把它推到新高

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这就是容涨小的容长继续往上推

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但有一种情况会导致它的趋势发生一个转向

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就是战火重启

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标普单日跌幅超过了1%

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那么会破坏这个熔涨环境

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我相信大家可能也听懂了对吧

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标普现在大家不要期待它暴涨

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就像每天今天一样

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一一天涨一点几

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一点几

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不要这么期待

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每天涨个零点几

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反而容易推过去

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如果反而如果涨得太快了

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它反而不稳定啊

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或者是跌的太快了

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一下一口气又跌了1.21.3

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那他这个融涨环境就被破坏了啊

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好这个是标普

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我们说现在他有一个机会

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能够在明天在维斯的乐器权结算之后

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到后天到本周吧

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就是本周的周四周五左右这种这种情况啊

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看看有没有机会去打一个前高啊

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只要稳定啊

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好这是标普的一个大致的位置

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因为标普呢现在还差着一口气6980对吧

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那如果我们看一下标普的EPETF

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696啊

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676~696

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这是新高前唯一的压力

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那站上了696

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那肯定是后面往上走啊

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695左右啊

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因为他这有一个呃这个这个派息的问题啊

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这是之前写的啊

219
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你可以往下放一点

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大概就是在695左右啊

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因为有个派息的差不多一块多嘛

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695啊

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我们因为这个之前9号的

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你今天更新以后呢

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你往下放一点

226
00:09:31,269 --> 00:09:32,349
695.5左右

227
00:09:32,349 --> 00:09:32,869
大概就这样

228
00:09:32,869 --> 00:09:33,730
6956

229
00:09:33,730 --> 00:09:34,929
你把它放一个整数

230
00:09:34,929 --> 00:09:35,450
就是695

231
00:09:35,450 --> 00:09:36,490
还差了一丢丢啊

232
00:09:36,490 --> 00:09:38,600
看看明天开盘能不能过好

233
00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:40,860
这个呢是标普的情况

234
00:09:40,860 --> 00:09:45,929
另外呢我们刚才在开篇谈到了一个QQQ

235
00:09:45,929 --> 00:09:50,049
QQQ呢是确认已经是完成了突破

236
00:09:50,529 --> 00:09:53,289
QQ今天已经站上了628

237
00:09:53,289 --> 00:09:55,049
628

238
00:09:55,049 --> 00:09:56,610
这个地方是新高

239
00:09:56,610 --> 00:09:58,690
前唯一的压力也就意味着呢

240
00:09:58,690 --> 00:10:02,250
现在这个位置变成了强支撑

241
00:10:02,250 --> 00:10:04,789
它只要不往下大幅下跌

242
00:10:04,789 --> 00:10:06,409
跌破这个617

243
00:10:06,409 --> 00:10:10,509
它的这个上行动能就一直存在啊

244
00:10:10,509 --> 00:10:12,389
但是不是说那种天天暴涨啊

245
00:10:12,389 --> 00:10:13,230
大家一定要理解

246
00:10:13,230 --> 00:10:16,230
就是网上容涨小涨和暴涨区别啊

247
00:10:16,230 --> 00:10:17,070
大家很多朋友说

248
00:10:17,070 --> 00:10:18,519
那今天刚一买

249
00:10:18,519 --> 00:10:19,659
明天又跌了0.3

250
00:10:19,659 --> 00:10:20,639
那跌了怎么样呢

251
00:10:20,639 --> 00:10:22,740
今天0.30.5也是正常的呀

252
00:10:22,740 --> 00:10:24,980
后天又涨了一个0.60.7对吧

253
00:10:24,980 --> 00:10:26,159
它慢慢往上推啊

254
00:10:26,159 --> 00:10:27,379
不要期待买完之后

255
00:10:27,379 --> 00:10:29,250
马上它就蹦蹦蹦往上跳呃

256
00:10:29,250 --> 00:10:33,070
咱们这个市场它波动率控制不是那样的好

257
00:10:33,070 --> 00:10:35,049
这个是QQQ

258
00:10:35,049 --> 00:10:37,710
他过了标普还差一口气

259
00:10:37,710 --> 00:10:40,409
那标普我们现在看点就是看后面怎么样吧

260
00:10:40,409 --> 00:10:43,289
但事实上我们说情绪原来我也讲过一个逻辑

261
00:10:43,289 --> 00:10:47,049
是要看标普最终能不能够突破

262
00:10:47,049 --> 00:10:48,870
能不能够打新高

263
00:10:48,870 --> 00:10:51,568
这个是我们说市场整体的盘面

264
00:10:51,568 --> 00:10:54,528
是不是真正的实行V型反转的

265
00:10:54,528 --> 00:10:57,369
一个最重要的看点是标普啊

266
00:10:57,369 --> 00:10:58,448
而不是纳指啊

267
00:10:58,448 --> 00:11:01,980
大家一定要记住大盘是标普500指数

268
00:11:01,980 --> 00:11:05,059
所以它只要能够完成反转

269
00:11:05,059 --> 00:11:06,120
那就OK了

270
00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:07,639
那这个事情就就好办了嘛

271
00:11:07,639 --> 00:11:10,990
后面呃我们会看到WX会继续下滑对吧

272
00:11:10,990 --> 00:11:13,450
会继续的进入一个更加稳定的时期

273
00:11:13,450 --> 00:11:15,740
后面只要不重新开战

274
00:11:15,740 --> 00:11:19,340
那市场呢又会变成我们之前熟悉的那个样子啊

275
00:11:19,340 --> 00:11:20,200
可能要去走

276
00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,100
马上不是财报在密集披露吗

277
00:11:22,100 --> 00:11:23,860
跟着财报的基本面来啊

278
00:11:23,860 --> 00:11:25,860
个股呢又可以回到基本面上

279
00:11:25,860 --> 00:11:28,230
因为大家就可以已经假设

280
00:11:28,230 --> 00:11:32,029
霍尔木兹海峡在不远的未来会开放啊

281
00:11:32,029 --> 00:11:36,399
这是市场当前的基准的假设好

282
00:11:36,399 --> 00:11:38,120
讲了这些大的环境之后

283
00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,080
我们还是回过头来讲一讲个股

284
00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:41,019
大家比较关心

285
00:11:41,019 --> 00:11:42,039
今天也说到啊

286
00:11:42,039 --> 00:11:45,129
有几只个股呢是已经完成了突破

287
00:11:47,419 --> 00:11:49,870
第一个就是英伟达

288
00:11:50,110 --> 00:11:53,549
英伟达呢在昨天的这个收盘价

289
00:11:53,549 --> 00:11:56,009
是收到了189

290
00:11:56,009 --> 00:11:59,620
今天是直接跳空高开

291
00:11:59,620 --> 00:12:01,159
在190以上

292
00:12:01,159 --> 00:12:02,820
开盘完成突破

293
00:12:02,820 --> 00:12:05,970
今天的开盘价是190.84

294
00:12:05,970 --> 00:12:07,690
这就是我们原来讲过的

295
00:12:07,690 --> 00:12:08,970
在技术分析的时候

296
00:12:08,970 --> 00:12:13,129
开盘价收盘价它为什么会出现这种情况对吧

297
00:12:13,129 --> 00:12:15,090
因为这是一个重要的一个节点

298
00:12:15,090 --> 00:12:17,190
它开盘价开到了190以上

299
00:12:17,190 --> 00:12:19,490
代表开盘的时候我就完成这个突破

300
00:12:19,490 --> 00:12:21,029
我就要向上走好

301
00:12:21,029 --> 00:12:22,850
所以今天英伟达涨了3.8

302
00:12:22,850 --> 00:12:26,649
意味着187~190也形成了强支撑

303
00:12:26,649 --> 00:12:28,389
趋势已经发生改变

304
00:12:28,389 --> 00:12:30,529
英伟达它雄起了啊

305
00:12:30,529 --> 00:12:32,049
大家等了很久的英伟达

306
00:12:32,049 --> 00:12:35,370
后面的慢慢的他要去打新高了啊

307
00:12:35,370 --> 00:12:38,870
他的目标是新高212往上走

308
00:12:38,870 --> 00:12:40,000
他的目标啊

309
00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,500
这个目标的意思不是明天就打上去了

310
00:12:42,500 --> 00:12:45,539
因为现在上方还有两个小压力

311
00:12:45,539 --> 00:12:48,029
比如说打上去回撤回来一点

312
00:12:48,029 --> 00:12:48,850
慢慢走

313
00:12:48,850 --> 00:12:49,610
慢慢走

314
00:12:49,610 --> 00:12:51,169
低点逐渐抬高

315
00:12:51,169 --> 00:12:52,870
高点逐渐抬高

316
00:12:52,870 --> 00:12:54,700
逐渐的去打新高

317
00:12:54,700 --> 00:12:56,580
而不是说一天一定要走完啊

318
00:12:56,580 --> 00:12:59,120
大家一定要理解右侧突破的意思

319
00:12:59,120 --> 00:12:59,980
很多朋友说

320
00:12:59,980 --> 00:13:01,529
那我右侧一买完

321
00:13:01,529 --> 00:13:02,970
马上他就回撤了

322
00:13:02,970 --> 00:13:04,250
我怎么又买在高点了

323
00:13:04,250 --> 00:13:05,409
你再往后看几天吧

324
00:13:05,409 --> 00:13:06,009
往后看几天

325
00:13:06,009 --> 00:13:06,730
它不又回去了吗

326
00:13:06,730 --> 00:13:07,490
又涨回去了吗

327
00:13:07,490 --> 00:13:08,399
就这个意思啊

328
00:13:08,399 --> 00:13:09,659
只要没有往下

329
00:13:09,659 --> 00:13:11,120
像刚才谈的大盘

330
00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,080
标普一天又跌个1%以上的

331
00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:14,559
那也是一个慢慢融涨

332
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:16,000
往上推慢慢走好吧

333
00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:17,399
然后就等着它的财报

334
00:13:17,399 --> 00:13:18,960
5月份的财报

335
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:19,700
那比较晚

336
00:13:19,700 --> 00:13:21,840
那可以先等一些其他的大科技嘛对吧

337
00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,460
它的它的财报对于整个的半导体的这个

338
00:13:25,460 --> 00:13:26,659
这个板块的影响

339
00:13:26,659 --> 00:13:29,419
还有其他的大科技的相关的资本支出啊

340
00:13:29,419 --> 00:13:30,899
对于英伟达的呃

341
00:13:30,899 --> 00:13:32,980
这个到底是利好还是利空嘛

342
00:13:32,980 --> 00:13:35,879
后面那些从基本面就可以重新去分析了

343
00:13:35,879 --> 00:13:39,080
好这是英伟达技术面已经完成了突破啊

344
00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,429
大家会说那这个195能买吗

345
00:13:41,429 --> 00:13:43,269
你突破了这个之后呢

346
00:13:43,269 --> 00:13:46,350
最合适的买点当然是等一口回撤嘛对吧

347
00:13:46,350 --> 00:13:47,539
做一个二次测试

348
00:13:47,539 --> 00:13:50,500
但这种情况风险就在于它不回撤对吧

349
00:13:50,500 --> 00:13:51,659
他直接就上去了

350
00:13:51,659 --> 00:13:54,279
所以无非还是你的一个成本控制问题

351
00:13:54,279 --> 00:13:57,559
那英伟达呢我呢是10%的一个持仓啊

352
00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:00,460
之前下面的低位的这个想要去捡便宜

353
00:14:00,460 --> 00:14:01,019
没捡到啊

354
00:14:01,019 --> 00:14:01,500
没捡到

355
00:14:01,500 --> 00:14:02,639
那就只能拉倒了

356
00:14:02,639 --> 00:14:03,840
那就等未来了

357
00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:04,820
未来有机会再说

358
00:14:04,820 --> 00:14:06,570
好吧好

359
00:14:06,570 --> 00:14:08,169
然后英伟达突破

360
00:14:08,169 --> 00:14:10,480
然后看一下AMD

361
00:14:11,519 --> 00:14:15,360
AMD这边呢也是完成了突破241啊

362
00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:16,879
241已经突破了

363
00:14:16,879 --> 00:14:18,200
其实有两天了对吧

364
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:19,720
但是呢今天也走的比较快

365
00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:21,750
也是三个点往上呃

366
00:14:21,750 --> 00:14:24,509
因为这个位置也是很早之前就给大家写过的

367
00:14:24,509 --> 00:14:24,909
好吧

368
00:14:24,909 --> 00:14:25,870
也是写过的

369
00:14:25,870 --> 00:14:28,480
所以呢它上方266

370
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,059
再往上267

371
00:14:30,059 --> 00:14:31,460
两个高点都不太远了

372
00:14:31,460 --> 00:14:32,559
压力也不太大啊

373
00:14:32,559 --> 00:14:34,889
也是一个很好的右侧走势

374
00:14:34,889 --> 00:14:37,429
同样大家也不要期待每天一蹴而就

375
00:14:37,429 --> 00:14:39,029
斜率拉得这么高去走

376
00:14:39,029 --> 00:14:39,909
走得越快

377
00:14:39,909 --> 00:14:40,610
斜率越高

378
00:14:40,610 --> 00:14:41,610
中间越不回撤

379
00:14:41,610 --> 00:14:43,029
未来的稳定性就越差啊

380
00:14:43,029 --> 00:14:44,649
这是所有股票的共性啊

381
00:14:44,649 --> 00:14:46,710
好也是一个新高走势

382
00:14:46,710 --> 00:14:47,929
慢慢走慢慢走

383
00:14:47,929 --> 00:14:49,029
最稳

384
00:14:49,350 --> 00:14:51,350
然后是亚马逊

385
00:14:52,190 --> 00:14:54,070
亚马逊在昨天完成突破啊

386
00:14:54,070 --> 00:14:55,509
昨天是收盘价

387
00:14:55,509 --> 00:14:59,159
就收到了这个239对吧

388
00:14:59,159 --> 00:15:02,120
已经是在236的右侧完成突破了

389
00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:05,480
今天呢直接又往上拔了3.8

390
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:06,600
涨得非常不错

391
00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,019
也是一个看前高的走势

392
00:15:09,019 --> 00:15:10,639
258往上啊

393
00:15:10,639 --> 00:15:11,559
目前也是这么个情况

394
00:15:11,559 --> 00:15:12,559
也是非常的不错

395
00:15:12,559 --> 00:15:14,980
同样问题是如果不回撤

396
00:15:14,980 --> 00:15:17,200
中间已经有连续三个跳空了

397
00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:21,389
这种连续三个跳空的情况呢要小心

398
00:15:21,389 --> 00:15:22,799
因为太快了啊

399
00:15:22,799 --> 00:15:23,960
所以不回撤

400
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:25,539
反倒是这个拉的高

401
00:15:25,539 --> 00:15:27,120
未来很快打一个高点

402
00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,080
然后一个见顶形态下来

403
00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:30,279
再一个深度回踩

404
00:15:30,279 --> 00:15:32,200
你要正好就买到一个高点上

405
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,489
你可能又得暂时在里边被小套一会儿啊

406
00:15:35,489 --> 00:15:37,889
但是未来这个高点不会套到你啊

407
00:15:38,928 --> 00:15:41,808
还有一个也是今天完成突破的谷歌

408
00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,000
谷歌是325啊

409
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,519
325是今天完成的

410
00:15:46,519 --> 00:15:48,840
今天开盘开在322

411
00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:50,919
收盘收到了330

412
00:15:50,919 --> 00:15:53,240
收盘价完成突破啊

413
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:54,759
同样上方压力不大

414
00:15:54,759 --> 00:15:57,068
只有一个330~340的小压力

415
00:15:57,068 --> 00:15:58,869
上方的高点是349

416
00:15:58,869 --> 00:16:01,389
也是走一个前高的走势好吧

417
00:16:01,389 --> 00:16:04,039
然后呢支撑看311~325

418
00:16:04,039 --> 00:16:07,240
所以呢这几个都是已经完成了

419
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,200
比较好的明确了趋势的

420
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:12,399
就是我们讲右侧突破什么概念呃

421
00:16:12,399 --> 00:16:13,080
什么概念呢

422
00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:17,879
就是上涨的概率已经要大于下跌的概率了啊

423
00:16:17,879 --> 00:16:18,840
不是说百分之百啊

424
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,419
是上涨的概率大于下跌的概率了

425
00:16:22,419 --> 00:16:24,460
已经更多的看上涨

426
00:16:24,460 --> 00:16:26,590
而不能不是看下跌了啊

427
00:16:26,590 --> 00:16:28,740
这是右侧的最主要的意义

428
00:16:28,740 --> 00:16:32,779
但是不是每一个右侧百分之百只涨不跌

429
00:16:32,779 --> 00:16:34,039
最后也跌不破的

430
00:16:34,039 --> 00:16:35,500
很多的右侧也会出现对吧

431
00:16:35,500 --> 00:16:37,019
但它是小概率事件

432
00:16:37,019 --> 00:16:41,399
我们在市场中呢通常我们只做大概率事件

433
00:16:41,399 --> 00:16:43,299
大概率呢能够保证

434
00:16:43,299 --> 00:16:46,399
至少你在呃没有考虑盈亏比的情况下

435
00:16:46,399 --> 00:16:48,240
至少你的胜率能保持一部分对吧

436
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,159
我们说一部分你要考虑盈亏比

437
00:16:50,159 --> 00:16:52,370
一部分呢你要考虑胜率啊

438
00:16:52,370 --> 00:16:55,080
那这两种呢现在是目前胜率

439
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:58,639
这个获胜概率开始在偏向呃这个多头一方

440
00:16:58,639 --> 00:17:00,440
这就是你可以做的一个点啊

441
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,470
从技术面的角度和纯波段的角度啊

442
00:17:03,470 --> 00:17:06,058
是这么去思考的好啊

443
00:17:06,058 --> 00:17:07,578
这是几个已经突破的

444
00:17:07,578 --> 00:17:09,679
那还有没有突破的呃

445
00:17:09,679 --> 00:17:11,179
特斯拉

446
00:17:12,490 --> 00:17:14,569
特斯拉是一个震荡行情啊

447
00:17:14,569 --> 00:17:17,069
我们讲过他是一个宽幅震荡行情

448
00:17:17,069 --> 00:17:18,138
波段行情

449
00:17:18,138 --> 00:17:19,778
今天366啊

450
00:17:19,778 --> 00:17:21,898
目前的压力呢是380~405

451
00:17:21,898 --> 00:17:22,979
这个是小压力

452
00:17:22,979 --> 00:17:24,538
然后走的比较不错的话

453
00:17:24,538 --> 00:17:26,259
就能走到接近420啊

454
00:17:26,259 --> 00:17:27,980
接近420有60块钱左右啊

455
00:17:27,980 --> 00:17:30,339
而仍这个仍旧你去考虑它的这个盈亏

456
00:17:30,339 --> 00:17:32,220
比它呢属于一个中性啊

457
00:17:32,220 --> 00:17:33,599
因为在震荡区域里边

458
00:17:33,599 --> 00:17:36,240
从胜率的角度来来算的

459
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,240
大概只能算是五十五十啊

460
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:39,789
但是今天是放量啊

461
00:17:39,789 --> 00:17:42,630
今天放量呢就给这个多头呢

462
00:17:42,630 --> 00:17:44,599
又增加了一些这个子弹啊

463
00:17:44,599 --> 00:17:47,079
相当于目前短期均线也拐头嘛

464
00:17:47,079 --> 00:17:50,500
这个从概率上略微偏向一点多头

465
00:17:50,500 --> 00:17:55,160
从盛呃盈亏比上也略微的偏向一点多头啊

466
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,079
因为盈亏比往下365

467
00:17:57,079 --> 00:17:58,619
往下三百一十五十块钱

468
00:17:58,619 --> 00:18:02,380
然后365往上四百二六十块钱对吧

469
00:18:02,380 --> 00:18:06,640
盈亏比的话略大于一比一好额

470
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,660
然后meta就没有了啊

471
00:18:09,660 --> 00:18:11,480
meta是在压力位

472
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,920
而且它的高点在上方啊

473
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:14,740
还离得比较远

474
00:18:14,740 --> 00:18:17,308
但仍旧呢我们原来讲过很多次

475
00:18:17,308 --> 00:18:19,628
下去低吸它拿住啊

476
00:18:19,628 --> 00:18:20,788
最好就先别动好吧

477
00:18:20,788 --> 00:18:22,209
仍旧现在他也不太好做

478
00:18:22,209 --> 00:18:24,609
就这个位置你要最后又卖下来

479
00:18:24,609 --> 00:18:25,710
最后他上去了

480
00:18:25,710 --> 00:18:27,109
到了740上方了

481
00:18:27,109 --> 00:18:29,630
你啥时候还能买得回600多块钱的股票呢

482
00:18:29,630 --> 00:18:30,390
你肯定又买不到了

483
00:18:30,390 --> 00:18:32,150
要等很久啊

484
00:18:32,450 --> 00:18:34,369
好台积电这个之前讲过了

485
00:18:34,369 --> 00:18:35,809
早就突破了350亿

486
00:18:35,809 --> 00:18:37,049
早就突破了新高走势

487
00:18:37,049 --> 00:18:37,890
这个就不用管了

488
00:18:37,890 --> 00:18:39,930
继续拿着等新高了

489
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,539
微软呢在强压力位置反弹额

490
00:18:44,539 --> 00:18:46,480
然后呢有动能在续集

491
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,440
但是压力太大了

492
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,269
嗯所以暂时呢看他慢慢晃吧

493
00:18:51,269 --> 00:18:53,910
这个这个东西这个瓜没法保熟啊

494
00:18:53,910 --> 00:18:55,069
因为这个430

495
00:18:55,069 --> 00:18:57,549
397~430很宽的一个区域啊

496
00:18:57,549 --> 00:18:58,970
以重度套牢盘好吧

497
00:18:58,970 --> 00:19:00,079
重度套牢盘

498
00:19:00,079 --> 00:19:01,960
所以你没有什么仓位的

499
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:02,920
微软没有什么仓位

500
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:04,460
特别想做他的长线的

501
00:19:04,460 --> 00:19:06,779
你看到低位你愿意买一点对吧

502
00:19:06,779 --> 00:19:07,859
你说我也不懂技术面

503
00:19:07,859 --> 00:19:08,779
你买一点就买一点

504
00:19:08,779 --> 00:19:09,380
慢慢拿

505
00:19:09,380 --> 00:19:10,638
控制好成本

506
00:19:10,638 --> 00:19:12,999
你要是说你已经有很重的仓位的

507
00:19:12,999 --> 00:19:14,318
你就等一个趋势嘛

508
00:19:14,318 --> 00:19:16,598
就等一个真正的右侧也行对吧

509
00:19:16,598 --> 00:19:19,460
你这两种考虑都可以好

510
00:19:19,460 --> 00:19:21,380
其他的就没什么说的了啊

511
00:19:21,380 --> 00:19:23,099
其他的我们最近有一些也讲过了

512
00:19:23,099 --> 00:19:26,809
主要是把大的股票给大家过一遍好额

513
00:19:26,809 --> 00:19:29,609
那最近的消息面资金面都不错啊

514
00:19:29,609 --> 00:19:33,190
然后CCTA那边有一个东西要提前跟大家讲一下

515
00:19:33,190 --> 00:19:34,410
CCTA的情况

516
00:19:34,410 --> 00:19:37,630
现在是买那个买400多亿呃

517
00:19:37,630 --> 00:19:40,400
但是它的子弹不是无限的啊

518
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,179
它不是无限子弹的

519
00:19:42,179 --> 00:19:44,898
他买完之后他就会停下来

520
00:19:44,898 --> 00:19:46,939
但目前呢截止到今天为止

521
00:19:46,939 --> 00:19:47,898
今天买了很多

522
00:19:47,898 --> 00:19:51,009
但我不清楚他有没有呃买完啊

523
00:19:51,009 --> 00:19:53,029
所以呢后面我再观察几天

524
00:19:53,029 --> 00:19:54,490
然后去跟一下数据

525
00:19:54,490 --> 00:19:56,809
如果CCTA停下来了呃

526
00:19:56,809 --> 00:20:00,068
那那个时候我再跟大家这个更新好吧

527
00:20:00,068 --> 00:20:01,669
因为他的资金量也有限

528
00:20:01,669 --> 00:20:04,019
它不是说无限印钞

529
00:20:04,019 --> 00:20:07,730
在全球市场它它有大概3000多亿呃

530
00:20:07,730 --> 00:20:10,730
总的不同机构的CTA的总的盘子

531
00:20:10,730 --> 00:20:12,210
大概是3000多亿吧

532
00:20:12,210 --> 00:20:13,650
在全全球市场啊

533
00:20:13,650 --> 00:20:16,039
所有市场包括美股市场

534
00:20:16,039 --> 00:20:17,000
亚洲盘

535
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,579
黄金包括原油都有啊

536
00:20:19,579 --> 00:20:20,559
跨商品期货

537
00:20:20,559 --> 00:20:22,160
跨商品市场全部都有

538
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,740
大概是3000多亿的一个盘子呃

539
00:20:24,740 --> 00:20:28,539
这里边呢在美股市场长期来讲

540
00:20:28,539 --> 00:20:30,819
多头的加上杠杆的满仓

541
00:20:30,819 --> 00:20:33,670
应该是在1200到1500亿啊

542
00:20:33,670 --> 00:20:34,769
大概是这么个状况

543
00:20:34,769 --> 00:20:37,950
所以呢他这个星期要是买完400多亿

544
00:20:37,950 --> 00:20:40,329
后面的钱什么时候买

545
00:20:40,329 --> 00:20:41,990
那我们要后面再去跟好不好

546
00:20:41,990 --> 00:20:43,460
现在还很难说啊

547
00:20:43,460 --> 00:20:45,460
但他的总的仓位不是无限的

548
00:20:45,460 --> 00:20:46,359
提前告诉大家

549
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:47,940
大家不要说他们是不是一直买

550
00:20:47,940 --> 00:20:48,420
拼命买

551
00:20:48,420 --> 00:20:48,980
也不是啊

552
00:20:48,980 --> 00:20:50,309
他们也有买不动的时候

553
00:20:50,309 --> 00:20:52,029
也有这个耗尽的时候

554
00:20:52,029 --> 00:20:53,009
好呃

555
00:20:53,009 --> 00:20:55,470
这个呢就是咱们今天呃带给大家的

556
00:20:55,470 --> 00:20:57,829
关于市场的一些内容的跟踪

557
00:20:57,829 --> 00:21:02,089
希望呢给大家带来更多的好的这个心情啊

558
00:21:02,089 --> 00:21:03,730
很多朋友可能还想呢

559
00:21:03,730 --> 00:21:06,169
哎呀我这个没买够对吧

560
00:21:06,169 --> 00:21:07,509
又涨上去了怎么办

561
00:21:07,509 --> 00:21:09,630
其实你不要这么想

562
00:21:09,630 --> 00:21:10,569
下跌的时候

563
00:21:10,569 --> 00:21:12,569
你当时想的不是还怕跌更多

564
00:21:12,569 --> 00:21:14,049
损失更多吗对吧

565
00:21:14,049 --> 00:21:17,329
所以不你这个我们一直在讲一件事情

566
00:21:17,329 --> 00:21:19,549
其实投资有两个风险啊

567
00:21:19,549 --> 00:21:21,609
一个呢就是亏损是吧

568
00:21:21,609 --> 00:21:24,650
一个就是所谓的很多朋友认为的踏空啊

569
00:21:24,650 --> 00:21:28,230
这两个风险你是不可能同时规避的啊

570
00:21:28,230 --> 00:21:30,109
你没有办法同时规避他们

571
00:21:30,109 --> 00:21:32,690
你既要又要这是没可能的

572
00:21:32,690 --> 00:21:35,670
所以最好的方式就是我们说美股市场里边

573
00:21:35,670 --> 00:21:38,359
逢低去买优质的股票

574
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,339
仓位呢它太高了

575
00:21:40,339 --> 00:21:41,940
高估的时候减一点仓

576
00:21:41,940 --> 00:21:42,700
滚动一下

577
00:21:42,700 --> 00:21:43,970
降低成本

578
00:21:43,970 --> 00:21:47,190
但你呢不要动不动就满仓进

579
00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:49,490
满仓出对吧

580
00:21:49,490 --> 00:21:52,950
你你那种情况就容易产生所谓的这个踏空心理

581
00:21:52,950 --> 00:21:55,210
或者高位重仓满仓被套

582
00:21:55,210 --> 00:21:57,339
这两种情况都是经常发生的

583
00:21:57,339 --> 00:21:59,619
但是你用仓位控制增加你的容错率嘛

584
00:21:59,619 --> 00:22:00,339
市场涨了

585
00:22:00,339 --> 00:22:02,339
你有仓位你不也不错嘛对吧

586
00:22:02,339 --> 00:22:03,220
市场下跌了

587
00:22:03,220 --> 00:22:04,619
你一发现哎我还有仓位

588
00:22:04,619 --> 00:22:05,539
未来还可以继续买

589
00:22:05,539 --> 00:22:07,578
还可以补仓也可以啊对吧

590
00:22:07,578 --> 00:22:09,298
你还是一个仓位的问题啊

591
00:22:09,298 --> 00:22:11,538
这个直接影响到你的心态呃

592
00:22:11,538 --> 00:22:15,880
如果特别想着一直要额满仓呃

593
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:20,180
赚所有的这个大的半这个大段抄在最低点

594
00:22:20,180 --> 00:22:22,019
那你真的是会很痛苦的

595
00:22:22,019 --> 00:22:24,319
唉你这个投资起来呢很焦虑

596
00:22:24,319 --> 00:22:27,640
因为行情我们讲股票每天的波动啊

597
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,859
本身它是一个随机价格走势

598
00:22:29,859 --> 00:22:33,779
只有在某些特定的情况下能够有一些明显趋势

599
00:22:33,779 --> 00:22:35,380
比方说这个信息的CCTA

600
00:22:35,380 --> 00:22:37,059
那地球人都知道了对吧

601
00:22:37,059 --> 00:22:38,460
那讲完上个星期讲完之后

602
00:22:38,460 --> 00:22:39,579
地球人现在全知道

603
00:22:39,579 --> 00:22:40,579
那好几万人

604
00:22:40,579 --> 00:22:42,549
十几万人可能都知道这个东西了

605
00:22:42,549 --> 00:22:43,470
那就知道哦

606
00:22:43,470 --> 00:22:44,710
这是一个好的趋势

607
00:22:44,710 --> 00:22:47,640
那你平常的时候它如果没有这个趋势呢

608
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,500
你怎么知道明天它是涨是跌呢

609
00:22:49,500 --> 00:22:50,299
你不知道吗

610
00:22:50,299 --> 00:22:51,710
对吧好

611
00:22:51,710 --> 00:22:53,670
所以呢我们还是平常心对待啊

612
00:22:53,670 --> 00:22:55,349
这个机会还有的

613
00:22:55,349 --> 00:22:57,910
为什么我们说机会还有呢

614
00:22:58,309 --> 00:23:01,390
7000即便突破往上涨到什么

615
00:23:01,390 --> 00:23:06,220
七千二七千三就不代表着它不会跌到6500了

616
00:23:06,220 --> 00:23:08,380
不知道大家能不能理解这个逻辑啊

617
00:23:08,380 --> 00:23:10,220
很多东西呃

618
00:23:10,220 --> 00:23:12,880
从标普的历史走势看

619
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,019
大的方向

620
00:23:14,019 --> 00:23:15,799
只要美国的经济没出问题

621
00:23:15,799 --> 00:23:19,690
标普的EPS的增长没有大幅下滑或者负增长

622
00:23:19,690 --> 00:23:22,170
它的方向是往东北方向走

623
00:23:22,170 --> 00:23:25,589
但中间的路程它不是一条直线上去的

624
00:23:25,589 --> 00:23:27,499
它是有曲折的啊

625
00:23:27,499 --> 00:23:29,519
这个曲折就是什么呢

626
00:23:29,519 --> 00:23:31,930
就是所谓的我们说均值回归嘛

627
00:23:31,930 --> 00:23:33,630
高估的地方他要回来

628
00:23:33,630 --> 00:23:35,430
低估的地方跌的太深了

629
00:23:35,430 --> 00:23:36,470
他要反弹回去

630
00:23:36,470 --> 00:23:37,430
就这个逻辑啊

631
00:23:37,430 --> 00:23:40,049
所以大家不要说涨上去永远都跌不下来了啊

632
00:23:40,049 --> 00:23:41,509
又到了只涨不跌的时候了

633
00:23:41,509 --> 00:23:41,930
对吧

634
00:23:41,930 --> 00:23:42,650
只涨跌的朋友

635
00:23:42,650 --> 00:23:45,200
不跌的朋友上次前一轮下跌的时候

636
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:46,839
他们肯定不会说只涨不跌

637
00:23:46,839 --> 00:23:48,440
还有朋友说会跌的更深嘛

638
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:48,920
对不对

639
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:50,980
所以呢仓位控制吧好吧

640
00:23:50,980 --> 00:23:53,849
其他的东西呢就是放平心态了

641
00:23:53,849 --> 00:23:57,369
嗯这个也没有办法说你你一定都是满仓杠杆

642
00:23:57,369 --> 00:23:58,470
这个抄到最低点

643
00:23:58,470 --> 00:24:00,130
然后赚到最多钱呵

644
00:24:00,130 --> 00:24:01,569
心里理想是好的

645
00:24:01,569 --> 00:24:02,809
我希望大家能做到啊

646
00:24:02,809 --> 00:24:04,569
但我们也都不是股神吧

647
00:24:04,569 --> 00:24:05,369
也不会算命

648
00:24:05,369 --> 00:24:06,339
对不对

649
00:24:06,339 --> 00:24:07,299
好额

650
00:24:07,299 --> 00:24:09,819
这个呢就是我们今天节目的全部内容啊

651
00:24:09,819 --> 00:24:11,299
这个后面讲的有点多了啊

652
00:24:11,299 --> 00:24:12,440
显得有点啰嗦了啊

653
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:17,000
这个不过还是希望大家能够帮忙多多的点赞啊

654
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:18,500
点赞评论转发

655
00:24:18,500 --> 00:24:19,460
谢谢大家好

656
00:24:19,460 --> 00:24:20,819
那我们今天节目到这

657
00:24:20,819 --> 00:24:24,660
咱们就明天的同一时间不见不散

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