普通人自由之路

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牛顿在他投资的股票南海公司破产之后啊

2
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说了一句话非常经典

3
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他说我能计算出天体的距离

4
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但是我计算不出人性的疯狂

5
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大家有没有看到最近啊

6
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你看美股涨疯了啊

7
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咨询我买美股的人越来越多了

8
00:00:14,199 --> 00:00:16,890
但是呢再往前拉长一个月啊

9
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我讲美股是低估啊

10
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跌30%天载难逢

11
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但是那个时候全是骂娘的啊

12
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我去年10月份当时那个纯土暴跌的时候啊

13
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我到我们群里分享了很多实盘啊

14
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我因为我现在还有持有西部数据啊

15
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持有美光也卖了一些闪迪的put嘛

16
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啊那么收益还不错

17
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虽然仓位不大呢

18
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但对我的这个啊贡献额还是非常大的

19
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因为都翻倍了嘛

20
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在那个时候呢

21
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大家都恐慌啊

22
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说到存储会不会跟当年的这个啊周期股一样的

23
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会不会崩盘呀之类的

24
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我说数据中心的需求肯定在的

25
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包括现在数据中心也是哈

26
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你再往前推一个月啊

27
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我说数据中心是最后一公里啊

28
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因为涨完GPU涨CPU

29
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涨完CPU呢啊

30
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挡存储啊

31
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挡液冷

32
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那最后呢一定轮到数据中心了

33
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因为你是高速公路收费站嘛

34
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你所有的这个数据训练啊

35
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推理你最后离不开数据中心

36
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但这个时候呢大家意味着旅游啊

37
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负债率高啊啊

38
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然后呢这个啊那有些负债多啊是吧

39
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然后借钱难呐哈

40
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美国的国债收益高呀

41
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各位这就是人性

42
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你知道吧

43
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就是一个人呢你只能赚认知以内的钱啊

44
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就为什么我在美国有时候我非常非常开心啊

45
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就我就想如果我在国内哈

46
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如果我的我这么分析的话

47
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不知道多少人会举报骂娘是吧

48
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因为我在美国我眼不见心不烦嘛

49
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各位这就是一个人性是吧

50
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也就是说

51
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你看赚到大钱的人和这个赚不到钱的人呢

52
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其实他真的不是智商或者学历的区别

53
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他就是你的你的价值观的区别是吧

54
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你这些东西你能不能看懂啊

55
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你看不懂能不能承认自己看不懂

56
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你自己承认之后

57
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你会不会去帮他想想法

58
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搞懂它对吧

59
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你即使说那技术咱不懂

60
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但是最起码你估值啊安全没济啊

61
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市场先生啊

62
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这个情绪你最起码能能搞懂吧

63
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那这个就是投资上有一个很有意思的事啊

64
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就是这个机会永远都在啊

65
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但是呢能看懂机会还抓住的人很少

66
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所以你看我在做投资过程里面

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我发现实际上我们认为这是捡钱对吧

68
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因为啥呢

69
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因为机会太多了是吧

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你发现但凡是你能用心去研究一下

71
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哎你总发现这个市场呢

72
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总是给了各种各样的机会

73
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但是呢你会发现每次机会来的时候啊

74
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你但凡是很能看懂的人呢

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都属于那种什么人呢

76
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哎要不价值观大家很趋同啊

77
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要不就是这个嗯对这个事的理解啊一样深啊

78
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要不就是有共同的经历啊

79
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要不就是什么呢

80
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就是哎大家出生的这个时间差不多

81
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哎这个我觉得很有意思啊

82
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你看我是85年的

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哎

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我今年有特别多的85年的会员兄弟

85
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就我就发现这个人哈

86
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他这个价值观怎么来的呢

87
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他可能不是一个行业

88
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比如说我我是做这个互联网的啊

89
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多少跟这个科技沾点边

90
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再加上我要做手机做那么多年啊

91
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还懂点啊

92
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加上做家电这些行业呢

93
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它相对于哎虽然说没有AI这么先进

94
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但多少还是属于第二个前沿线吧

95
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但是呢你会发现很多这个养养蜜蜂的啊

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养殖业的啊

97
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然后做农场的诶

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他们很相信我哎

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反而就是不让赚了钱了

100
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也就是什么概念呢

101
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就是在每个时代啊

102
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他都有这种啊行业好机会

103
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但是呢你如果想跨行业

104
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只有一个原因是说

105
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你要不是认识一个懂行的人啊

106
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要不就是你啊你相信了一些人

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他们自己懂行哎

108
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所以这两个都是我认为啊

109
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就是在股票跨行赚钱的核心啊

110
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我能赚钱的原因是什么呢

111
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哈就是我懂生意是吧

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我不可能我不能说每个行业都懂啊

113
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生意是什么呢

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得安全边际

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我知道在哪些行业买了之后向下有限对吧

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就说白了我我拿着资产

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这个资产很好啊

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有流动性

119
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但是呢我也亏不了什么钱

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为啥呢

121
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买的便宜啊

122
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我的逻辑就这样

123
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买的便宜

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还生产很好

125
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你这样的话你基本上就很难亏的啊

126
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啊这一点的话我也是跟着格雷姆巴菲特啊

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带我们去学的

128
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那只不过像他们呢

129
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他们现在资金量太大了

130
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他不太会做这种趋势性的投资啊

131
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但我们现在说白了你这个体量还是小嘛是吧

132
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你可以灵活一点

133
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所以我们呢学点新东西啊

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研究的这种啊爆发式的潜力股啊

135
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分期反转

136
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每年抓上三五只股票

137
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哎弄几个翻倍可以啊

138
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对不对

139
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你在美国从哪进去

140
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你不用说35个还没了

141
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你一年抓住一个哎呀你就衣食无忧

142
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各位因为啥美国的消费啊

143
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你就拿这个地方啊

144
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这边房子很贵啊

145
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均价的话600万美金

146
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但是你的消费一年20到30万美金好

147
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一家五口够了

148
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你按30万美金来算对吧

149
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你你一只股票啊

150
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你你就买个30万美金哎

151
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翻个倍

152
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你全家的生活费完全不够了

153
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其实也不知道干什么

154
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更何况他肯定不能光一只股要翻倍啊

155
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其他的二三十%的收益肯定也很稳嘛

156
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那这个就是哈在美股赚钱呢

157
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实际上啊就是很舒服

158
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小Y对比了创业哈

159
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我也对比了这个啊

160
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之前的啊做了很多这种工厂啊

161
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啊包括一级市场也给一些啊供应链

162
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VIVOOPPO的兄弟投资

163
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其实我做到最后啊

164
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我发现其实在做美股投资

165
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那是他妈最幸福的事对吧

166
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真的是你知道吧

167
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因为你做不出来那么伟大的公司

168
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但是你可以买到哎

169
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你还可以有一个便宜的价格买到伟大的公司

170
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我靠这个真的是这个真的是哎

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你你你你永远也不可能的

172
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其实你就想吧哈

173
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就是在哪个国家

174
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它会像那个啊老百姓去开放那么多资源呢对吧

175
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你想想是不是

176
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那美股他肯定给了机会了

177
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那你也像比如说中国的烟草

178
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你能参与吗

179
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你参与不了对吧

180
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那么那中国的这些其他的这些垄断行业啊

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你你刷了你买点股票可以的

182
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但是很多时候呢

183
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这些股票呢有可能哎会会高估了啊

184
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或者说呢啊被炒高了啊

185
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或者说呢那个里面有雷啊

186
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或者说呢这个啊各种各样的因缘关系哈

187
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你买不到最优质的

188
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但是美股呢这顶尖公司呢你可以随便买啊

189
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这个呢我觉得对这种我们这种穷孩子出身啊

190
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没有资源

191
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没有背景的人来讲

192
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那美股真的是给了一个最好的机会啊

193
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我到现在我也找不出来第二个机会啊

194
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能给我这种起点的人啊

195
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提供这么公平的竞争了啊

196
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啊你懂生意啊

197
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你会估值啊

198
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你也会学习

199
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你也正在研究啊

200
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你还能控制情绪

201
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然后呢你还这个行业里面

202
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你也不用巴结任何人啊

203
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不用搞关系啊

204
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不用求爷告奶奶

205
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你还能赚大钱

206
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我想来想去

207
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只有美股

208
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其他的地方我都觉得不可能

209
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哈哈哈哈对吧

210
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你你说他生意

211
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你说哦你想赚几个亿啊

212
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你说你不搞关系

213
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绝对不可能

214
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美股可以额

215
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巴菲特赚了几千亿美金

216
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老段赚了几百亿美金

217
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人家从来不搞关系

218
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人家就玩哈

219
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打打高尔夫啊

220
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公平交流是吧

221
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那那那这个是真的是是这样的哈

222
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我想你看我在国内

223
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我做那个小生意

224
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做几个亿的生意对吧

225
00:06:20,509 --> 00:06:21,949
你说你不去搞关系啊

226
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你不去学习告奶奶啊

227
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随便一个啊

228
00:06:24,529 --> 00:06:25,370
科级干部啊

229
00:06:25,370 --> 00:06:26,529
把街道办事处弄

230
00:06:26,529 --> 00:06:27,310
你难受的要死

231
00:06:27,310 --> 00:06:29,949
那随便一个处级干部给你带来灭顶之灾对吧

232
00:06:29,949 --> 00:06:31,810
那我又不又不是没经历过

233
00:06:31,810 --> 00:06:34,490
你想想那个生意你这么辛苦啊

234
00:06:34,490 --> 00:06:35,709
加几加几百号员工

235
00:06:35,709 --> 00:06:36,730
你的结果是啥呀

236
00:06:37,810 --> 00:06:38,449
谁感谢你啊

237
00:06:38,449 --> 00:06:39,639
我就问你对吧

238
00:06:39,639 --> 00:06:40,399
你工资下滑了

239
00:06:40,399 --> 00:06:41,759
那你老板能力不行是吧

240
00:06:41,759 --> 00:06:42,879
你但凡给员工降薪

241
00:06:42,879 --> 00:06:45,079
那员工他妈的肯定不好好干对吧

242
00:06:45,079 --> 00:06:46,218
你少交一毛钱的税

243
00:06:46,218 --> 00:06:47,918
那立马给你插上门了

244
00:06:47,918 --> 00:06:48,819
封条了对吧

245
00:06:48,819 --> 00:06:50,738
那你你你随便一个顾客举报你

246
00:06:50,738 --> 00:06:54,180
你你你你你老板也得去卑躬屈膝的处理对吧

247
00:06:54,180 --> 00:06:56,439
你更何况我们在创业过来的那边

248
00:06:56,439 --> 00:06:58,100
还不止一个环节出问题啊

249
00:06:58,100 --> 00:06:58,660
对不对

250
00:06:58,660 --> 00:06:59,500
你做生产

251
00:06:59,500 --> 00:07:00,610
你说没有问题

252
00:07:00,610 --> 00:07:02,810
是不是我给你讲一个很搞笑的

253
00:07:02,810 --> 00:07:03,649
我当做工厂的时候

254
00:07:03,649 --> 00:07:04,610
不是我工厂啊

255
00:07:04,610 --> 00:07:05,680
喝酒啊

256
00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:07,839
就就就就就给一个过路的大手车啊

257
00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:08,990
就就产生了纠纷

258
00:07:08,990 --> 00:07:11,310
那那工厂让直接让村民给砸了对吧

259
00:07:11,310 --> 00:07:12,790
然后把人全打医院里面还

260
00:07:12,790 --> 00:07:13,829
结果还得赔人家钱

261
00:07:13,829 --> 00:07:15,209
还得罪了当地派出所

262
00:07:15,209 --> 00:07:16,389
你想想哎

263
00:07:16,389 --> 00:07:17,310
这种事太多了

264
00:07:17,310 --> 00:07:17,790
知道吗

265
00:07:17,790 --> 00:07:20,430
你你就想想这个你做企业过程里面

266
00:07:20,430 --> 00:07:21,370
你员工管理不善

267
00:07:21,370 --> 00:07:22,250
我也出现过呀

268
00:07:22,250 --> 00:07:23,199
员工管理不善

269
00:07:23,199 --> 00:07:25,199
监守之盗那种事很多啊

270
00:07:25,199 --> 00:07:26,430
你稍微对吧

271
00:07:26,430 --> 00:07:28,610
你说三天以前做这个电商运营的时候

272
00:07:28,610 --> 00:07:31,230
我们做全天台一个店做两个亿还亏钱

273
00:07:31,230 --> 00:07:32,110
怎么亏的呢

274
00:07:32,110 --> 00:07:33,750
一年广告费花他妈4000万

275
00:07:33,750 --> 00:07:35,209
我靠小天才啊

276
00:07:35,209 --> 00:07:37,459
花4000万广告费促销费

277
00:07:37,459 --> 00:07:38,660
你看你挣什么钱呀

278
00:07:38,660 --> 00:07:39,939
毛利他妈10%几

279
00:07:39,939 --> 00:07:41,540
就是说两个亿还亏钱

280
00:07:41,540 --> 00:07:42,120
还要补税

281
00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:43,160
你想想搞笑吧

282
00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:44,139
这怎么出来的呀

283
00:07:44,139 --> 00:07:45,730
那员工为了追求业绩是吧

284
00:07:45,730 --> 00:07:47,389
一定要去达到工厂的目标

285
00:07:47,389 --> 00:07:48,230
使劲砸

286
00:07:48,230 --> 00:07:49,410
那结果砸来砸去呢

287
00:07:49,410 --> 00:07:50,168
还搞亏了

288
00:07:50,168 --> 00:07:51,848
这种事我是经历过很多次啊

289
00:07:51,848 --> 00:07:54,189
VIVO后来也是就是你花了几千万

290
00:07:54,189 --> 00:07:56,100
你还亏钱还倒贴对吧

291
00:07:56,100 --> 00:07:58,379
你年底员工还得给他想办法安抚他哈

292
00:07:58,379 --> 00:07:59,120
给点红包

293
00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:00,918
要不然辛苦一年投啥呀

294
00:08:00,918 --> 00:08:01,838
哎呀我跟你讲

295
00:08:01,838 --> 00:08:04,918
我就是为什么我这么喜欢这个做美股投资啊

296
00:08:04,918 --> 00:08:06,158
来到美国这么开心啊

297
00:08:06,158 --> 00:08:09,620
就是你经历过那些那些真的是出力啊

298
00:08:09,620 --> 00:08:11,060
没有任何结果的事之后

299
00:08:11,060 --> 00:08:14,480
你就真认识到妈在这个世界上找一个公平啊

300
00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,019
靠能力吃饭的地方真的不多对吧

301
00:08:17,019 --> 00:08:20,199
你创业虽然说也也是相对公平

302
00:08:20,199 --> 00:08:23,420
但是你的投入资金和精力投入不值得知道吗

303
00:08:23,420 --> 00:08:25,529
就是到今天很多人算不过账来

304
00:08:25,529 --> 00:08:27,089
就你花了几千万啊

305
00:08:27,089 --> 00:08:28,689
你你你你你特别辛苦

306
00:08:28,689 --> 00:08:29,949
把头发他妈熬白了

307
00:08:29,949 --> 00:08:32,830
那最后呢做了一个还还可能会亏钱的生意

308
00:08:32,830 --> 00:08:33,809
你想啥呢

309
00:08:33,809 --> 00:08:34,490
图啥呢

310
00:08:34,490 --> 00:08:35,129
对不对啊

311
00:08:35,129 --> 00:08:37,000
你早点想明白这个事儿说吧

312
00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:37,679
你像我一样

313
00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:40,580
又开心又赚钱

314
00:08:40,580 --> 00:08:43,019
哈哈哈哈哈哎呀

315
00:08:43,019 --> 00:08:44,259
兄弟们想不卖不容易啊

316
00:08:44,259 --> 00:08:45,600
好好想一想吧

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