BV1DX7g6bEVQ · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,580 --> 00:00:05,939 辉瑞公司的股票在过去一年内已损失超过70%的价值 2 00:00:05,939 --> 00:00:08,019 仔细看的话接近80% 3 00:00:08,019 --> 00:00:11,400 从峰值到近期低点 4 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:15,140 这促使像迈克尔·伯里这样的价值投资者大量购入股票 5 00:00:15,140 --> 00:00:18,329 你可以看到内部人士也在买入 6 00:00:18,329 --> 00:00:21,410 这是来自Flash的内幕报告 7 00:00:21,410 --> 00:00:25,210 可帮助你分析全球任何公司的数据 8 00:00:25,210 --> 00:00:28,030 由最先进的AI模型驱动 9 00:00:28,030 --> 00:00:29,250 查看下方链接 10 00:00:29,250 --> 00:00:30,410 因此指出 11 00:00:30,410 --> 00:00:30,629 是的 12 00:00:30,629 --> 00:00:32,789 多位内部人士已购入 13 00:00:32,789 --> 00:00:34,609 包括首席财务官 14 00:00:34,609 --> 00:00:35,530 首席行政官 15 00:00:35,530 --> 00:00:36,869 首席法务官 16 00:00:36,869 --> 00:00:37,350 你知道的 17 00:00:37,350 --> 00:00:41,399 多位董事买入数万美元股票 18 00:00:41,399 --> 00:00:45,159 这种动态有趣的原因在于当首席财务官 19 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:47,280 和首席法务官也在买入 20 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,229 这表明辉瑞正在进行一次清理整顿 21 00:00:51,229 --> 00:00:54,350 甚至认为财务数据会表现良好 22 00:00:54,350 --> 00:00:56,079 或者至少 23 00:00:57,030 --> 00:00:59,109 说没有 24 00:00:59,109 --> 00:01:00,670 欺诈或问题 25 00:01:00,670 --> 00:01:01,530 即将发生 26 00:01:01,530 --> 00:01:01,850 他们在说 27 00:01:01,850 --> 00:01:03,670 我们 28 00:01:03,670 --> 00:01:05,259 我们相信这个价值 29 00:01:05,259 --> 00:01:07,959 因此决定购入股票 30 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:14,069 从股票走势看，管理层看到了一个布局机会 31 00:01:14,069 --> 00:01:17,430 他们看到股价可能在4 32 00:01:17,430 --> 00:01:17,750 7 33 00:01:17,750 --> 00:01:18,010 4 34 00:01:18,010 --> 00:01:18,849 8美元左右 35 00:01:18,849 --> 00:01:22,799 并预计每股收益达到8美元 36 00:01:22,799 --> 00:01:26,379 这意味着市盈率约6倍 37 00:01:26,379 --> 00:01:29,638 或自由现金流收益率约15% 38 00:01:29,638 --> 00:01:32,399 这极具吸引力的自由现金流 39 00:01:32,399 --> 00:01:35,778 将惠及潜在股东和辉瑞股票 40 00:01:35,778 --> 00:01:38,510 即使业务不再增长 41 00:01:38,510 --> 00:01:41,829 只要管理层能维持现状 42 00:01:41,829 --> 00:01:43,039 不出现崩盘 43 00:01:43,039 --> 00:01:46,109 15%的年回报率相当诱人 44 00:01:46,109 --> 00:01:48,430 将回馈股东和管理层 45 00:01:48,430 --> 00:01:49,390 他们可以 46 00:01:49,390 --> 00:01:49,829 他们可以说 47 00:01:49,829 --> 00:01:51,390 凭借这笔自由现金流 48 00:01:51,390 --> 00:01:55,219 我们可以每年回购15%的股票 49 00:01:55,219 --> 00:01:56,640 因此股价 50 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,888 可能在此水平上涨 51 00:01:59,888 --> 00:02:01,649 所以我的个人结论 52 00:02:01,649 --> 00:02:05,769 我们将在视频末尾详细讨论，总体而言 53 00:02:05,769 --> 00:02:07,530 我相当喜欢这里的布局 54 00:02:07,530 --> 00:02:10,449 缺点是管理层执行非常糟糕 55 00:02:10,449 --> 00:02:13,930 但仅从粘性和自由现金流来看 56 00:02:13,930 --> 00:02:19,099 股价进一步大幅下跌的可能性不大 57 00:02:19,099 --> 00:02:22,039 相比之下更有利的场景 58 00:02:22,039 --> 00:02:24,719 比如管理层真正兑现承诺 59 00:02:24,719 --> 00:02:26,439 这种情况下我不会感到意外 60 00:02:26,439 --> 00:02:29,419 如果股价最终可能涨至一百 61 00:02:29,419 --> 00:02:31,800 长期或达每股两百美元 62 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:33,479 存在上百倍的上涨空间 63 00:02:33,479 --> 00:02:38,180 或许有精明的第三方提出收购 64 00:02:38,180 --> 00:02:40,319 我们想收购整个公司 65 00:02:40,319 --> 00:02:42,080 可能溢价收购 66 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,000 每股一百美元 67 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,259 从如此低的估值起步 68 00:02:46,259 --> 00:02:49,848 从市盈率六倍到十二倍 69 00:02:49,848 --> 00:02:53,829 聪明买家大幅提价似乎合理 70 00:02:53,829 --> 00:02:54,429 所以我说 71 00:02:54,429 --> 00:02:55,960 这可能是个好交易 72 00:02:55,960 --> 00:03:01,199 我之前在辉瑞的经历是 73 00:03:01,199 --> 00:03:05,929 多年前自己买入了股份 74 00:03:05,929 --> 00:03:07,528 随后全部以两百多美元卖出 75 00:03:07,528 --> 00:03:09,468 这是我最后一次卖出价 76 00:03:09,468 --> 00:03:12,500 这发生在2025年初 77 00:03:12,500 --> 00:03:18,120 主要原因在于CEO弗兰克 78 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,659 比西亚诺宣布将卸任加入特朗普政府 79 00:03:20,659 --> 00:03:24,340 这改变了我的核心观点 80 00:03:24,340 --> 00:03:30,849 当具有传奇色彩的领导者 81 00:03:30,849 --> 00:03:32,250 主导公司运营时突然离开 82 00:03:32,250 --> 00:03:33,550 这让我意识到 83 00:03:33,550 --> 00:03:35,110 他是核心假设的关键部分 84 00:03:35,110 --> 00:03:36,629 所以我决定退出 85 00:03:36,629 --> 00:03:39,009 我要重置自己的预期 86 00:03:39,009 --> 00:03:40,270 这就是我卖出的原因 87 00:03:40,270 --> 00:03:43,969 坦率说有些因素让我犹豫 88 00:03:43,969 --> 00:03:44,289 嗯 89 00:03:44,289 --> 00:03:47,270 这会不会是杰克·韦尔奇式的情况 90 00:03:47,270 --> 00:03:50,870 有人过度操控每股收益 91 00:03:50,870 --> 00:03:51,949 一旦他离开 92 00:03:51,949 --> 00:03:54,460 整个体系可能崩溃 93 00:03:54,460 --> 00:03:57,159 我认为正是这样 94 00:03:57,159 --> 00:03:59,139 股价因此暴跌 95 00:03:59,139 --> 00:04:01,560 在他离职时 96 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,580 这正好是我清仓后的一个月 97 00:04:04,580 --> 00:04:08,960 管理层指引有机营收增长10-12% 98 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,800 有机或调整后每股收益 99 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:17,269 增长15-17%至每股十美元以上 100 00:04:17,269 --> 00:04:17,689 然而 101 00:04:17,689 --> 00:04:21,129 新管理层管理下的年度业绩表现反映 102 00:04:21,129 --> 00:04:21,689 实际上 103 00:04:21,689 --> 00:04:25,329 这远未达到之前的预期 104 00:04:25,329 --> 00:04:27,420 有机收入保持平稳 105 00:04:27,420 --> 00:04:29,160 仅增长约4% 106 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,879 调整后每股收益或调整后每股收益 107 00:04:31,879 --> 00:04:34,060 全年实际呈下降趋势 108 00:04:34,060 --> 00:04:38,389 仅达到2026年预期的约八美元 109 00:04:38,389 --> 00:04:40,209 可见重大调整 110 00:04:40,209 --> 00:04:46,009 新上任的管理层承认此前每股收益被过度管理 111 00:04:46,009 --> 00:04:48,490 同时在服务和产品上投入不足 112 00:04:48,490 --> 00:04:52,120 这表明弗兰克·塞加诺可能 113 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:52,800 你知道的 114 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:55,408 稍微过度扩张业务 115 00:04:55,408 --> 00:04:59,360 这也是股价承压的原因之一 116 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:00,319 因为管理层 117 00:05:00,319 --> 00:05:01,139 我认为 118 00:05:01,139 --> 00:05:05,519 正在重新调整资本配置策略 119 00:05:05,519 --> 00:05:08,620 意识到如果企业 120 00:05:08,620 --> 00:05:12,240 突然不再以每年10%至15%稳定增长 121 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,689 反而可能持平或下滑 122 00:05:14,689 --> 00:05:17,290 且拥有数十亿美元债务 123 00:05:17,290 --> 00:05:18,329 就像他们所拥有的 124 00:05:18,329 --> 00:05:20,589 管理债务至关重要 125 00:05:20,589 --> 00:05:24,649 这样才能将现金流分配给股东 126 00:05:24,649 --> 00:05:28,779 必须确保偿还债务义务 127 00:05:28,779 --> 00:05:32,279 因此这成为更紧迫的短期重点 128 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:32,579 好的 129 00:05:32,579 --> 00:05:34,560 在接下来的几年里 130 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,120 确保债务不会失控 131 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,069 因为他们已处于临界点 132 00:05:38,069 --> 00:05:39,509 开始变得令人不安 133 00:05:39,509 --> 00:05:41,829 净债务与EBITDA比率约3倍 134 00:05:41,829 --> 00:05:43,970 资产负债表已非常紧张 135 00:05:43,970 --> 00:05:44,269 你知道的 136 00:05:44,269 --> 00:05:48,500 若业务或经济进一步下滑 137 00:05:48,500 --> 00:05:50,680 情况可能变得棘手 138 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:52,800 这种债务比率 139 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,050 以及从'我们能返还所有自由现金流' 140 00:05:55,050 --> 00:05:56,610 我们甚至可以加杠杆 141 00:05:56,610 --> 00:05:58,250 你知道的 142 00:05:58,250 --> 00:05:58,750 通过回购返还现金流 143 00:05:58,750 --> 00:06:01,290 转而'我们必须偿还部分债务' 144 00:06:01,290 --> 00:06:03,310 这也让股东感到担忧 145 00:06:03,310 --> 00:06:05,410 这是股价下跌的原因之一 146 00:06:05,410 --> 00:06:07,779 因此股价下跌部分原因 147 00:06:07,779 --> 00:06:09,980 这就是两大关键因素 148 00:06:09,980 --> 00:06:13,879 其中之一是此前预期过于激进 149 00:06:13,879 --> 00:06:18,519 公司此前可能管理方向错误 150 00:06:18,519 --> 00:06:22,620 即季度每股收益达标 151 00:06:22,620 --> 00:06:23,160 你知道吗 152 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:24,339 年度展望 153 00:06:24,339 --> 00:06:26,420 新管理层来了又走 等一下 154 00:06:26,420 --> 00:06:28,819 我们正在考虑的这些政策非常激进 155 00:06:28,819 --> 00:06:31,899 我们并没有关注企业长期健康发展 156 00:06:31,899 --> 00:06:38,399 然而就在五月二十六日几周前你们刚举办过投资者日 157 00:06:38,399 --> 00:06:40,480 管理层当时表示长期来看 158 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,100 我们实际上认为能够 159 00:06:43,100 --> 00:06:43,519 你知道的 160 00:06:43,519 --> 00:06:46,329 甚至短期到二零二七至二零二九年 161 00:06:46,329 --> 00:06:49,689 我们认为到二零二九年每股能达到十二美元 162 00:06:49,689 --> 00:06:51,680 调整后收益在二零二九年 163 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,620 这非常有趣 164 00:06:53,620 --> 00:06:58,560 这表明当前股价对应约四倍市盈率 165 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:06,240 然而投资者进一步不满的原因 166 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,379 是几周后首席执行官辞职 167 00:07:08,379 --> 00:07:08,720 迈克 168 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,480 莱昂斯辞职 169 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,120 他仅在公司工作约一年 170 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:14,240 刚满一年 171 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,139 然而他们正在提拔谁 172 00:07:17,139 --> 00:07:22,829 此前负责商户解决方案业务的高管 173 00:07:22,829 --> 00:07:27,649 就在投资者日几周后发生这一变动 174 00:07:27,649 --> 00:07:28,170 当时他们宣称 175 00:07:28,170 --> 00:07:28,370 嘿 176 00:07:28,370 --> 00:07:29,649 这估值简直太低了 177 00:07:29,649 --> 00:07:30,490 廉价至极 178 00:07:30,490 --> 00:07:31,658 四倍市盈率 179 00:07:31,658 --> 00:07:33,230 随后首席执行官离职 180 00:07:33,230 --> 00:07:35,110 他任职仅约一年 181 00:07:35,110 --> 00:07:36,110 刚满一年 182 00:07:36,110 --> 00:07:38,170 这让许多投资者感到 183 00:07:38,170 --> 00:07:38,750 你知道的 184 00:07:38,750 --> 00:07:40,990 这个故事太复杂了 185 00:07:40,990 --> 00:07:42,750 我干脆卖掉吧 186 00:07:42,750 --> 00:07:43,670 我干脆 187 00:07:43,670 --> 00:07:44,129 你知道的 188 00:07:44,129 --> 00:07:45,089 退出算了 189 00:07:45,089 --> 00:07:48,370 如果他都坚持不住最终反弹 190 00:07:48,370 --> 00:07:52,000 我又何必相信现在展望 191 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,430 让我稍感安心的是 192 00:07:54,430 --> 00:07:59,019 对这个展望我更有信心 193 00:07:59,139 --> 00:08:00,379 我要念错名字了 194 00:08:00,379 --> 00:08:01,319 他的发音 195 00:08:01,319 --> 00:08:04,300 塔基斯·乔治亚·科波洛斯 196 00:08:04,300 --> 00:08:04,819 呃 197 00:08:04,819 --> 00:08:07,430 乔治亚先生G 198 00:08:07,430 --> 00:08:10,250 你知道他之前曾 199 00:08:10,250 --> 00:08:12,930 已在辉瑞工作数年 200 00:08:12,930 --> 00:08:15,810 自二零二四年末加入辉瑞 201 00:08:15,810 --> 00:08:18,769 他曾之前在摩根士丹利工作 202 00:08:18,769 --> 00:08:22,410 他在商户解决方案领域有丰富经验 203 00:08:22,410 --> 00:08:24,779 因此他提供了公司展望 204 00:08:24,779 --> 00:08:30,370 商户解决方案业务可能是辉瑞的关键增长驱动力 205 00:08:30,370 --> 00:08:32,549 看到他留任 206 00:08:32,549 --> 00:08:34,730 他是公司展望的核心成员 207 00:08:34,730 --> 00:08:37,509 公司提供的展望让我感到些许安心 208 00:08:37,509 --> 00:08:44,019 他们更有可能兑现预期目标 209 00:08:44,019 --> 00:08:44,659 现在 210 00:08:44,659 --> 00:08:47,940 回顾前任CEO离职 211 00:08:47,940 --> 00:08:50,440 他将重返金融业 212 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:52,940 他曾任职于PNC金融服务集团 213 00:08:52,940 --> 00:08:54,980 他将加入Truest金融公司 214 00:08:54,980 --> 00:08:57,659 或许他要回归本源 215 00:08:57,659 --> 00:08:59,960 但无论如何时机都很糟糕 216 00:08:59,960 --> 00:09:04,690 这也是股价暴跌的重要原因 217 00:09:04,690 --> 00:09:07,029 投资者认为这太难预测 218 00:09:07,029 --> 00:09:08,629 我不想轻易相信 219 00:09:08,629 --> 00:09:09,169 你知道的 220 00:09:09,169 --> 00:09:10,309 管理层的展望 221 00:09:10,309 --> 00:09:12,110 我为何要这样 222 00:09:12,110 --> 00:09:14,149 现在是否该买入辉瑞 223 00:09:14,149 --> 00:09:16,960 是否真正存在深度价值机会 224 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,379 首先需明确这不是财务建议 225 00:09:19,379 --> 00:09:21,080 我只是分享个人观点 226 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:22,039 当我审视这家公司 227 00:09:22,039 --> 00:09:24,669 顺便推荐约翰·弗·罗德 228 00:09:24,669 --> 00:09:27,049 他是Unrivaled和Investing的高级会员 229 00:09:27,049 --> 00:09:27,350 他写道 230 00:09:27,350 --> 00:09:30,149 非常感谢带我经历这段旅程 231 00:09:30,149 --> 00:09:32,090 这对我帮助极大 232 00:09:32,090 --> 00:09:37,019 我在Unrivaled Investing的目标是帮助全球投资者 233 00:09:37,019 --> 00:09:40,970 分享我自己的投资历程 234 00:09:40,970 --> 00:09:42,529 这意味着 235 00:09:42,529 --> 00:09:44,029 当我发现值得做的事 236 00:09:44,029 --> 00:09:46,190 当我发现想买入的股票 237 00:09:48,289 --> 00:09:48,750 说声 238 00:09:48,750 --> 00:09:51,039 你知道我今天刚买了这只 239 00:09:51,039 --> 00:09:52,639 或我已全部清仓 240 00:09:52,639 --> 00:09:55,519 就像我在2025年初指出的辉瑞 241 00:09:55,519 --> 00:09:58,289 2025年初开始 242 00:09:58,289 --> 00:10:03,919 或我通常每周有固定评论安排 243 00:10:03,919 --> 00:10:05,019 内容会稍简 244 00:10:05,019 --> 00:10:08,000 我还制作专属月度视频 245 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:09,879 概述 246 00:10:09,879 --> 00:10:13,860 当前关注的优质投资标的 247 00:10:13,860 --> 00:10:15,419 并加入宏观视角 248 00:10:15,419 --> 00:10:17,139 如果你在寻找 249 00:10:17,139 --> 00:10:21,240 或许需要一些适合你的投资思路 250 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,220 你可能会喜欢看看 251 00:10:23,220 --> 00:10:23,899 无与伦比 252 00:10:23,899 --> 00:10:24,799 投资方面也很不错 253 00:10:24,799 --> 00:10:25,799 我也认识到 254 00:10:25,799 --> 00:10:30,610 夏天是很多人重启自己旅程的好时机 255 00:10:30,610 --> 00:10:36,519 所以今年夏天我开始推出我的财务报表分析课程 256 00:10:36,519 --> 00:10:39,600 该课程面向年度轻量级订阅用户开放 257 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,299 我为高级会员同时提供这两门课程 258 00:10:42,299 --> 00:10:44,200 新注册的年度订阅用户 259 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:47,230 你可以访问unrivalinvesting.com了解详情 260 00:10:47,230 --> 00:10:48,419 这是针对这个夏天的 261 00:10:48,980 --> 00:10:49,759 作为特色功能 262 00:10:49,759 --> 00:10:50,179 作为 263 00:10:50,179 --> 00:10:53,440 作为给有兴趣学习者的促销活动 264 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,578 并助力他们的个人成长 265 00:10:55,578 --> 00:10:57,639 当我思考pfizer v时 266 00:10:57,639 --> 00:10:58,099 你知道的 267 00:10:58,099 --> 00:11:01,669 这是一个年收入二十亿美元的业务 268 00:11:01,669 --> 00:11:04,549 其中约半数来自他们的商户解决方案部门 269 00:11:04,549 --> 00:11:07,350 另一半来自金融解决方案部门 270 00:11:07,350 --> 00:11:10,039 这是一家金融基础设施公司 271 00:11:10,039 --> 00:11:11,899 他们正在为 272 00:11:11,899 --> 00:11:12,720 你知道的 273 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:14,500 当你看金融解决方案时 274 00:11:14,500 --> 00:11:17,179 他们为数千家银行提供支持 275 00:11:17,179 --> 00:11:19,480 数千家大型金融机构 276 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,120 数千家信用合作社 277 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,149 提供多种解决方案的社区银行 278 00:11:24,149 --> 00:11:25,009 银行解决方案 279 00:11:25,009 --> 00:11:27,909 数字支付发行如发卡 280 00:11:27,909 --> 00:11:31,970 这是这些银行的关键基础设施 281 00:11:31,970 --> 00:11:33,029 然而 282 00:11:33,029 --> 00:11:36,429 这一部门正在以相当快的速度下滑 283 00:11:36,429 --> 00:11:39,549 最近一个季度下滑约5-6% 284 00:11:39,549 --> 00:11:44,909 这也反映了管理层此前在该领域投入不足 285 00:11:44,909 --> 00:11:48,019 实际上他们面临更高的客户流失 286 00:11:48,019 --> 00:11:49,950 客户实际上在说 287 00:11:49,950 --> 00:11:53,169 或许我们可以尝试新竞争对手的产品 288 00:11:53,169 --> 00:11:55,009 我们不必继续使用pfizer 289 00:11:55,009 --> 00:11:57,559 我们对现有服务不太满意 290 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,710 这就是他们业绩下滑的原因 291 00:12:00,710 --> 00:12:03,669 现在这令人担忧因为这占了他们业务的一半 292 00:12:03,669 --> 00:12:06,289 但利润贡献超过一半 293 00:12:06,289 --> 00:12:08,509 这是一个高利润领域 294 00:12:08,509 --> 00:12:09,809 但它并未增长 295 00:12:09,809 --> 00:12:12,129 正在以显著速度收缩 296 00:12:12,129 --> 00:12:12,389 你知道的 297 00:12:14,309 --> 00:12:15,750 以中单数百分比速度 298 00:12:15,750 --> 00:12:18,070 然后你就能接触到他们的商户获取业务 299 00:12:18,070 --> 00:12:18,990 商户解决方案 300 00:12:18,990 --> 00:12:20,309 这正在提供 301 00:12:20,309 --> 00:12:20,830 你知道的 302 00:12:20,830 --> 00:12:24,070 赋能数万亿美元的支付 303 00:12:24,070 --> 00:12:26,269 数万笔交通交易 304 00:12:26,269 --> 00:12:29,360 或每秒数万笔交易 305 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:33,309 你正在谈论赋能数百万商户 306 00:12:33,309 --> 00:12:35,929 中小商户 307 00:12:35,929 --> 00:12:37,970 有时也包括大型商户 308 00:12:37,970 --> 00:12:40,529 接受各种不同的支付方案 309 00:12:40,529 --> 00:12:41,490 如果你已经来到 310 00:12:41,490 --> 00:12:42,580 你知道来到 311 00:12:42,580 --> 00:12:43,039 比如说 312 00:12:43,039 --> 00:12:44,169 来到美国 313 00:12:44,169 --> 00:12:47,250 你偶尔会看到一个Clover收银台 314 00:12:47,250 --> 00:12:47,850 你正在获得一些 315 00:12:47,850 --> 00:12:49,950 你想为自己买些冷冻酸奶 316 00:12:49,950 --> 00:12:51,490 你走进商店看到 317 00:12:51,490 --> 00:12:51,809 哦 318 00:12:51,809 --> 00:12:54,029 这里有个Clover终端机 319 00:12:54,029 --> 00:12:55,529 这个销售点解决方案 320 00:12:55,529 --> 00:12:58,870 Clover历史上之所以成功 321 00:12:58,870 --> 00:13:08,809 是因为他们为这些小型零售店提供操作系统并观察到这一点 322 00:13:08,809 --> 00:13:10,809 这就是为什么你知道 323 00:13:10,809 --> 00:13:12,429 观察各种不同解决方案 324 00:13:12,429 --> 00:13:19,080 辉瑞的商户获取业务在美国实际排名第一 325 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:23,460 根据尼尔森报告的顶级商户收单机构 326 00:13:23,460 --> 00:13:24,460 所以这就是你知道的 327 00:13:24,460 --> 00:13:26,460 这是一家非常真实的公司 328 00:13:26,460 --> 00:13:30,259 这不是一家会突然消失的公司 329 00:13:30,259 --> 00:13:32,299 然而它同样 330 00:13:32,299 --> 00:13:37,299 像金融解决方案业务在最近季度表现不佳 331 00:13:37,299 --> 00:13:40,009 实际上持平或略有下降 332 00:13:40,009 --> 00:13:42,389 而该业务的一个子部分 333 00:13:42,389 --> 00:13:44,730 Clover实际上增长良好 334 00:13:44,730 --> 00:13:47,839 因此他们的传统解决方案可能正在失去市场份额 335 00:13:47,839 --> 00:13:51,058 而Clover作为操作系统 336 00:13:51,058 --> 00:13:56,049 包含软件加支付仍以中个位数增速增长 337 00:13:56,049 --> 00:13:57,549 如果排除 338 00:13:57,549 --> 00:13:58,330 你知道的 339 00:13:58,330 --> 00:14:02,668 去年的一次性非经常性收入 340 00:14:02,668 --> 00:14:03,948 我们将更接近中个位数增速 341 00:14:03,948 --> 00:14:05,629 他们实际报告接近6% 342 00:14:05,629 --> 00:14:11,490 但管理层认为长期Clover将保持10%以上增速 343 00:14:11,490 --> 00:14:12,289 以上 344 00:14:12,289 --> 00:14:13,909 未来 345 00:14:13,909 --> 00:14:15,250 所以你知道的 346 00:14:15,250 --> 00:14:19,570 这就是辉瑞和管理层正在推进的发展 347 00:14:19,570 --> 00:14:22,509 指出当你观察Clover时 348 00:14:22,509 --> 00:14:26,769 市场占有率增长的迹象非常明显 349 00:14:26,769 --> 00:14:31,580 尤其是在零售和餐饮行业，他们实现了品类的多倍增长 350 00:14:31,580 --> 00:14:34,860 这确实表明其操作系统化战略 351 00:14:34,860 --> 00:14:36,539 这不仅包括支付功能 352 00:14:36,539 --> 00:14:41,279 还包括帮助零售和餐饮运营的软件系统 353 00:14:41,279 --> 00:14:41,840 你知道的 354 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:42,580 也许就是你 355 00:14:42,580 --> 00:14:43,720 你在收集 356 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,710 不仅仅是处理支付 357 00:14:46,710 --> 00:14:50,828 让顾客轻松刷卡或手机支付 358 00:14:50,828 --> 00:14:52,649 可能还与库存管理相关 359 00:14:52,649 --> 00:14:53,908 或者可能与 360 00:14:53,908 --> 00:14:54,408 你知道的 361 00:14:54,408 --> 00:14:58,549 应收账款管理，确保及时回款 362 00:14:58,870 --> 00:15:00,889 可能还与业务营销相关 363 00:15:00,889 --> 00:15:04,539 Clover系统涉及多个业务模块 364 00:15:04,539 --> 00:15:06,639 就操作系统而言 365 00:15:06,639 --> 00:15:08,620 在考虑这些企业时 366 00:15:08,620 --> 00:15:11,509 他们正在赋能并可能通过 367 00:15:11,509 --> 00:15:11,929 人工智能 368 00:15:11,929 --> 00:15:15,129 提供更多差异化解决方案 369 00:15:15,129 --> 00:15:16,570 这就是原因所在 370 00:15:16,570 --> 00:15:18,909 当分析辉瑞V 371 00:15:18,909 --> 00:15:20,070 管理层预计 372 00:15:20,070 --> 00:15:21,919 总体来看 373 00:15:21,919 --> 00:15:25,659 未来几年预计实现高个位数增长 374 00:15:25,659 --> 00:15:27,679 关键驱动力是Clover业务 375 00:15:27,679 --> 00:15:30,279 预计增速在15%到20%之间 376 00:15:30,279 --> 00:15:35,779 而大型企业支付解决方案可能接近中个位数增长 377 00:15:35,779 --> 00:15:40,669 但非Clover业务面临压力 378 00:15:40,669 --> 00:15:42,090 你知道的处理环节 379 00:15:42,090 --> 00:15:44,809 以及非Clover中小型企业 380 00:15:44,809 --> 00:15:47,870 存在一些权衡因素 381 00:15:47,870 --> 00:15:51,629 但长期仍有望增长 382 00:15:51,629 --> 00:15:55,269 至少管理层在投资者日曾表示 383 00:15:55,269 --> 00:15:57,730 思考辉瑞股票时 384 00:15:57,730 --> 00:15:59,169 你知道管理层表示 385 00:15:59,169 --> 00:16:01,710 我们预计每股收益可达12美元 386 00:16:01,710 --> 00:16:01,970 现在 387 00:16:01,970 --> 00:16:04,860 这在CEO离职前 388 00:16:04,860 --> 00:16:08,220 如果他们能达到这个目标 389 00:16:08,220 --> 00:16:10,279 若市场情绪出现变化 390 00:16:10,279 --> 00:16:13,929 股价可能回升至约15倍市盈率 391 00:16:13,929 --> 00:16:14,370 你知道的 392 00:16:14,370 --> 00:16:17,129 我在2025年初卖出时 393 00:16:17,129 --> 00:16:18,549 股价接近2.5倍市盈率 394 00:16:18,549 --> 00:16:19,970 五倍市盈率水平 395 00:16:19,970 --> 00:16:24,269 很难想象股价不会回升至 396 00:16:24,269 --> 00:16:27,720 假设每股150-200美元潜力 397 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,779 鉴于其可产生的自由现金流规模 398 00:16:30,779 --> 00:16:36,470 如果他们能说我们重回增长故事并保持强劲利润率 399 00:16:36,470 --> 00:16:39,690 大量自由现金流可以返还给股东 400 00:16:39,690 --> 00:16:41,950 我们的债务处于舒适水平 401 00:16:41,950 --> 00:16:45,950 假设净债务与ebitda比率回落至三倍以下 402 00:16:45,950 --> 00:16:49,850 他们可以用大量自由现金流回购股份 403 00:16:49,850 --> 00:16:50,870 这就是为什么 404 00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:54,470 当我思考辉瑞的未来潜在路径时 405 00:16:54,470 --> 00:16:58,029 我的第一观点是管理层有效执行 406 00:16:58,029 --> 00:16:58,789 是的 407 00:16:58,789 --> 00:17:03,210 如果他们兑现每股12美元的盈利承诺 408 00:17:03,210 --> 00:17:03,690 你知道的 409 00:17:03,690 --> 00:17:09,049 未来几年可能达到每股100到200美元 410 00:17:09,049 --> 00:17:12,460 这显然从当前4.7美元有数百个百分点的上涨空间 411 00:17:12,460 --> 00:17:14,480 目前交易在4.7美元左右 412 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:14,740 四 413 00:17:14,740 --> 00:17:15,839 每股八美元 414 00:17:15,839 --> 00:17:18,640 另一个我已提及的场景 415 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:22,079 是某些精明的外部投资者说 416 00:17:22,079 --> 00:17:24,289 等等每股六倍市盈率 417 00:17:24,289 --> 00:17:26,569 基于当前股价水平 418 00:17:26,569 --> 00:17:29,329 为什么不考虑 419 00:17:29,329 --> 00:17:31,269 发起收购要约 420 00:17:31,269 --> 00:17:32,769 也许我出九倍市盈率 421 00:17:32,769 --> 00:17:35,509 也许出十二倍市盈率 422 00:17:35,509 --> 00:17:39,230 我可以以低倍率买入一家稳定公司 423 00:17:40,470 --> 00:17:44,869 展现市场份额优势的迹象 424 00:17:44,869 --> 00:17:48,339 因此可能出现这种情景 425 00:17:48,339 --> 00:17:53,519 第三种情景是管理层不断更迭 426 00:17:53,519 --> 00:17:57,500 无法实现任何增长 427 00:17:57,500 --> 00:18:01,549 长期来看盈利保持平稳 428 00:18:01,549 --> 00:18:04,809 任何增长都被 429 00:18:04,809 --> 00:18:07,710 金融解决方案业务的亏损抵消 430 00:18:07,710 --> 00:18:09,240 这是可能的 431 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,839 这就是我强调假设性原因 432 00:18:11,839 --> 00:18:13,359 但即使在这种情景下 433 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:13,779 我 434 00:18:13,779 --> 00:18:18,000 股价显著低于 435 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:19,599 每股五十美元 436 00:18:19,599 --> 00:18:22,369 鉴于他们将持续返还 437 00:18:22,369 --> 00:18:27,259 每年通过回购返还10%至15% 438 00:18:27,259 --> 00:18:30,980 这本身就能为股价提供支撑 439 00:18:30,980 --> 00:18:32,319 总体而言 440 00:18:32,319 --> 00:18:34,400 当我审视辉瑞时 441 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,460 完全不会感到意外 442 00:18:36,460 --> 00:18:40,429 未来几年股价表现优异 443 00:18:40,429 --> 00:18:42,028 话说回来就我个人而言 444 00:18:42,028 --> 00:18:46,608 可能难以纳入我的投资组合 445 00:18:46,608 --> 00:18:49,920 因为当我考虑自己的投资历程时 446 00:18:50,079 --> 00:18:51,319 我更倾向于 447 00:18:51,319 --> 00:18:52,160 管理层利益一致 448 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:58,410 我认为随着多位内部人士购入股票，情况正在改善 449 00:18:58,410 --> 00:19:00,699 我喜欢这样的发展态势 450 00:19:00,699 --> 00:19:03,999 显而易见的增长部分对我来说稍有难度 451 00:19:03,999 --> 00:19:05,798 这引发了一个更大的问题 452 00:19:05,798 --> 00:19:09,150 那就是你会选择以六倍市盈率买入股票 453 00:19:09,150 --> 00:19:10,529 然后涨到十二倍 454 00:19:10,529 --> 00:19:11,490 之后卖出 455 00:19:11,490 --> 00:19:15,470 还是选择以十五倍市盈率买入 456 00:19:15,470 --> 00:19:18,740 假设这家公司增速接近20% 457 00:19:18,740 --> 00:19:19,859 你拥有更高的 458 00:19:19,859 --> 00:19:22,380 信心能维持10%的年复合增长 459 00:19:22,380 --> 00:19:24,990 未来数年持续增长 460 00:19:24,990 --> 00:19:27,170 事实是 461 00:19:27,170 --> 00:19:29,390 两种情况都有可能成功 462 00:19:29,390 --> 00:19:36,200 但我的经验告诉我更愿意持有高增长复合型股票 463 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,769 假设市盈率在15到16倍之间 464 00:19:38,769 --> 00:19:44,390 年增速接近20%的公司 465 00:19:44,390 --> 00:19:44,849 而非投资 466 00:19:44,849 --> 00:19:45,329 你知道的 467 00:19:45,329 --> 00:19:47,359 不断更换管理层的公司 468 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,859 增速接近零 469 00:19:49,859 --> 00:19:55,299 因为最终决定企业价值的还是十年后的增长 470 00:19:55,299 --> 00:19:57,400 将驱动大部分价值 471 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,779 我认为整个支付领域变得相当有趣 472 00:20:01,779 --> 00:20:03,909 存在大量 473 00:20:03,909 --> 00:20:04,689 你知道的 474 00:20:04,689 --> 00:20:10,028 估值区间低端极具吸引力的投资 475 00:20:10,028 --> 00:20:11,568 比如辉瑞公司 476 00:20:11,568 --> 00:20:13,140 当前市盈率六倍 477 00:20:13,140 --> 00:20:14,039 今年的盈利 478 00:20:14,039 --> 00:20:16,660 未来几年可能降至四倍 479 00:20:16,660 --> 00:20:19,339 但该领域也有许多优质企业 480 00:20:19,339 --> 00:20:22,049 高质量公司 481 00:20:22,049 --> 00:20:23,349 由创始人领导 482 00:20:23,349 --> 00:20:26,690 交易在市场市盈率以下 483 00:20:26,690 --> 00:20:29,829 我认为我们正处于一个时期 484 00:20:29,829 --> 00:20:32,450 若不直接关联AI领域 485 00:20:32,450 --> 00:20:33,710 人们可能会说 486 00:20:33,710 --> 00:20:34,829 我宁愿不持有 487 00:20:34,829 --> 00:20:35,450 我宁愿 488 00:20:35,450 --> 00:20:37,559 你知道直接买入美光科技 489 00:20:37,559 --> 00:20:38,539 你知道的 490 00:20:38,539 --> 00:20:41,400 观察其每日上涨5% 491 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:42,759 而这些公司 492 00:20:42,759 --> 00:20:45,559 我认为不会一夜消失 493 00:20:45,559 --> 00:20:46,259 事实上 494 00:20:46,259 --> 00:20:48,779 它们可能继续保持良好增速 495 00:20:48,779 --> 00:20:51,609 也许某天投资者情绪转变 496 00:20:51,609 --> 00:20:54,250 就像辉瑞公司的估值变化一样 497 00:20:54,250 --> 00:20:59,019 或从25倍市盈率起步的公司 498 00:20:59,019 --> 00:21:01,339 当我看到弗兰克·伊西米亚诺不在时 499 00:21:01,339 --> 00:21:01,740 于是我说道 500 00:21:01,740 --> 00:21:02,200 等等，不对吧 501 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:03,099 这似乎不太合理 502 00:21:03,099 --> 00:21:04,960 于是我退出了六次 503 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,059 所以情绪可能会有巨大变化 504 00:21:08,059 --> 00:21:11,359 是否有可能这六次变成十八次 505 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,160 绝对在我的看法中 506 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:18,980 因此我认为这些支付公司未来会有大量情绪波动 507 00:21:18,980 --> 00:21:22,259 在接下来的几年里 508 00:21:22,259 --> 00:21:24,299 希望这段关于辉瑞的视频 509 00:21:24,299 --> 00:21:25,160 深度价值 510 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:26,519 像迈克尔·伯里这样的投资者 511 00:21:26,519 --> 00:21:28,900 多位内部人士购入股票 512 00:21:28,900 --> 00:21:30,299 希望这对你有帮助 513 00:21:30,299 --> 00:21:32,709 如果这样请务必点赞 514 00:21:32,709 --> 00:21:33,909 点击订阅按钮 515 00:21:33,909 --> 00:21:34,969 非常感谢观看 516 00:21:34,969 --> 00:21:36,519 无与伦比的投资
评论采集失败
采集完成，该视频无弹幕