BV1DPovBdEHV · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,640 今天我们来聊一份高盛的报告 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:07,089 主角嘛是中国金融市场的一个大块头中信证券 3 00:00:07,089 --> 00:00:09,390 咱们就跟着高盛分析师的思路 4 00:00:09,390 --> 00:00:12,250 看看这家公司最近到底怎么样 5 00:00:12,250 --> 00:00:14,148 53帕哇 6 00:00:14,148 --> 00:00:15,989 这个数字够吓人的吧 7 00:00:15,989 --> 00:00:17,809 这可不是随便所说的 8 00:00:17,809 --> 00:00:19,289 它就是中信证券 9 00:00:19,289 --> 00:00:22,600 2026年第一季度净利润的同比增 10 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:25,300 这开局可以说是相当猛了 11 00:00:25,300 --> 00:00:26,670 总的来说啊 12 00:00:26,670 --> 00:00:31,129 中信证券一季度的这个长期单真的是相当漂亮 13 00:00:31,129 --> 00:00:33,729 可以说大大超出了市场的预期 14 00:00:33,729 --> 00:00:35,960 给全年开了个好头 15 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:37,560 咱们来看具体数据 16 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:38,759 这就更有意思了 17 00:00:38,759 --> 00:00:39,950 你看这张图 18 00:00:39,950 --> 00:00:44,170 中信一季度的净利润直接干到了104个亿 19 00:00:44,170 --> 00:00:46,130 高盛之前预测的是多少呢 20 00:00:46,130 --> 00:00:47,280 84亿 21 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,060 这一下就超了整整24帕 22 00:00:50,060 --> 00:00:51,899 这个差距可不小啊 23 00:00:51,899 --> 00:00:53,060 那问题来了 24 00:00:53,060 --> 00:00:55,640 这么好的业绩到底是怎么来的 25 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:58,240 是哪些业务在给力的往前冲呢 26 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,369 咱们先从好消息说起 27 00:01:00,369 --> 00:01:04,549 首先啊就是他们的老本行经纪业务 28 00:01:04,549 --> 00:01:06,790 说白了就是大家炒股 29 00:01:06,790 --> 00:01:09,230 他们赚手续费的那一块儿 30 00:01:09,230 --> 00:01:12,290 这部分的增长可以说是非常迅猛 31 00:01:12,290 --> 00:01:14,069 你才增长了多少 32 00:01:14,069 --> 00:01:16,069 直接飙了48帕 33 00:01:16,069 --> 00:01:17,909 那背后是啥在推着呢 34 00:01:17,909 --> 00:01:19,189 答案很简单 35 00:01:19,189 --> 00:01:20,609 市场太火爆了 36 00:01:20,609 --> 00:01:22,448 交易量大得惊人 37 00:01:22,448 --> 00:01:23,909 除了经济业务 38 00:01:23,909 --> 00:01:25,629 还有一块也很亮眼 39 00:01:25,629 --> 00:01:27,209 那就是资产管理 40 00:01:27,209 --> 00:01:28,969 就是帮客户管钱 41 00:01:28,969 --> 00:01:30,150 投资的那个部门 42 00:01:30,150 --> 00:01:32,579 这个季度的表现也相当棒 43 00:01:32,579 --> 00:01:35,728 你看看同增比了37破三 44 00:01:35,728 --> 00:01:38,088 又是一个超出预期的数字 45 00:01:38,088 --> 00:01:39,028 为啥呢 46 00:01:39,028 --> 00:01:41,108 主要就是因为他们管理的钱 47 00:01:41,108 --> 00:01:44,030 也就是资产规模一直在涨 48 00:01:44,030 --> 00:01:45,209 哦对了 49 00:01:45,209 --> 00:01:47,870 这里有个词儿叫ADTV 50 00:01:47,870 --> 00:01:50,170 就是日均成交额 51 00:01:50,170 --> 00:01:54,668 简单理解就是市场上每天买卖股票的总金额 52 00:01:54,668 --> 00:01:56,569 中信这次业绩这么好 53 00:01:56,569 --> 00:02:00,500 很大程度上就是因为这个ADTV创了记录 54 00:02:00,500 --> 00:02:03,780 说白了就是整个市场都跟打了鸡血一样 55 00:02:03,780 --> 00:02:05,340 交易特别活跃 56 00:02:05,340 --> 00:02:07,900 而且啊还不光是会赚钱 57 00:02:07,900 --> 00:02:11,539 你看这家公司还越来越会省钱了 58 00:02:11,539 --> 00:02:14,930 他们的成本收入比降到了41.1帕 59 00:02:14,930 --> 00:02:15,889 什么意思呢 60 00:02:15,889 --> 00:02:18,530 就是说他们花钱的效率更高了 61 00:02:18,530 --> 00:02:21,490 可以说是精打细算好 62 00:02:21,490 --> 00:02:23,110 说了这么多好的地方 63 00:02:23,110 --> 00:02:24,650 是不是感觉一片大好 64 00:02:24,650 --> 00:02:25,909 嗯别急 65 00:02:25,909 --> 00:02:27,830 现在咱们就得聊聊报告里 66 00:02:27,830 --> 00:02:30,860 那个唯一让分析师们皱眉头的地方了 67 00:02:30,860 --> 00:02:34,620 所以说这份财报真的就完美无瑕了吗 68 00:02:34,620 --> 00:02:37,008 当然不是这个问题呢 69 00:02:37,008 --> 00:02:39,868 正好就把我们带到了故事的另一面 70 00:02:39,868 --> 00:02:41,528 问题出在哪儿 71 00:02:41,528 --> 00:02:43,810 看这张表就一目了然了 72 00:02:43,810 --> 00:02:45,990 虽然公司整体赚翻了 73 00:02:45,990 --> 00:02:50,270 但是你看这个投行业务的收入跟高盛的预测比 74 00:02:50,270 --> 00:02:52,300 直接少了31帕森 75 00:02:52,300 --> 00:02:54,020 这个坑可不小啊 76 00:02:54,020 --> 00:02:57,099 这可不只是个数字不好看的问题 77 00:02:57,099 --> 00:02:58,680 高盛的分析师认为 78 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,360 这背后可能有个更深层的问题 79 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:05,139 就是中信在IPO和发债这些核心投行业务上 80 00:03:05,139 --> 00:03:09,908 市场份额可能正在被竞争对手一点点蚕食好 81 00:03:09,908 --> 00:03:11,669 现在情况就是这样 82 00:03:11,669 --> 00:03:12,808 有喜有忧 83 00:03:12,808 --> 00:03:14,049 那作为投资者 84 00:03:14,049 --> 00:03:15,908 接下来到底该看什么 85 00:03:15,908 --> 00:03:17,870 关键点在哪儿 86 00:03:17,870 --> 00:03:20,650 高盛的分析师呢也帮我们划了重点 87 00:03:20,650 --> 00:03:21,949 主要就三个问题 88 00:03:21,949 --> 00:03:24,530 第一投行业务到底还有没有戏 89 00:03:24,530 --> 00:03:25,590 竞争这么激烈 90 00:03:25,590 --> 00:03:26,479 怎么破局 91 00:03:26,479 --> 00:03:30,020 第二那个超高的股本回报率到底是怎么做到的 92 00:03:30,020 --> 00:03:31,020 能持续吗 93 00:03:31,020 --> 00:03:35,579 最后公司未来花钱和招人打算是收紧还是放开 94 00:03:35,579 --> 00:03:37,519 刚才提到了ROE 95 00:03:37,519 --> 00:03:40,019 也就是股本回报率这个词儿 96 00:03:40,019 --> 00:03:40,818 听着专业 97 00:03:40,818 --> 00:03:42,240 其实特好理解 98 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,840 说白了就是你作为股东投进去一块钱 99 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,289 公司能帮你赚回来多少钱 100 00:03:48,289 --> 00:03:51,389 中信这个季度做到了12.5percent 101 00:03:51,389 --> 00:03:53,610 这个可是个相当厉害的数字 102 00:03:53,610 --> 00:03:55,849 所以大家才会这么关注它 103 00:03:55,849 --> 00:03:56,370 好了 104 00:03:56,370 --> 00:03:58,710 分析了这么多好的坏的都看了 105 00:03:58,710 --> 00:04:01,150 那么高盛的最终结论是什么 106 00:04:01,150 --> 00:04:04,669 他们到底觉得这支股票是该买还是该卖呢 107 00:04:04,669 --> 00:04:05,810 结论来了 108 00:04:05,810 --> 00:04:09,030 高盛最终还是上调了中信证券 109 00:04:09,030 --> 00:04:11,009 A股和H股的目标价 110 00:04:11,009 --> 00:04:13,439 看来整体还是看好的 111 00:04:13,439 --> 00:04:16,379 但是你仔细看这里面有讲究 112 00:04:16,379 --> 00:04:18,240 对于在上海上市的A股 113 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,319 高盛直接给买入评级 114 00:04:20,319 --> 00:04:22,629 觉得还有52爬的上涨空间 115 00:04:22,629 --> 00:04:24,569 可对于香港上市的H股呢 116 00:04:24,569 --> 00:04:26,449 就只是个中性评级 117 00:04:26,449 --> 00:04:28,389 上涨空间也只有12帕 118 00:04:28,389 --> 00:04:29,449 这说明什么 119 00:04:29,449 --> 00:04:32,269 说明分析师们明显更看好A股啊 120 00:04:32,269 --> 00:04:35,699 当然啦投资嘛风险肯定是有的 121 00:04:35,699 --> 00:04:37,350 高盛也提醒了几点 122 00:04:37,350 --> 00:04:39,509 万一整个股市行情不好了 123 00:04:39,509 --> 00:04:41,850 或者资产管理的收费降低了 124 00:04:41,850 --> 00:04:43,850 又或者公司花钱没控制住 125 00:04:43,850 --> 00:04:45,730 这些都可能会影响股价 126 00:04:45,730 --> 00:04:47,350 大家心里得有个数 127 00:04:47,350 --> 00:04:51,470 所以这就留下了一个非常有意思的问题 128 00:04:51,470 --> 00:04:53,009 现在市场这么火 129 00:04:53,009 --> 00:04:55,810 中信大部分业务都赚的盆满钵满 130 00:04:55,810 --> 00:04:59,029 但投行业务这个引擎却有点不给力 131 00:04:59,029 --> 00:05:02,990 那么他能不能赶在市场这股热乎劲过去之前 132 00:05:02,990 --> 00:05:05,029 把这个引擎给修好呢 133 00:05:05,029 --> 00:05:06,829 这个问题可能就是 134 00:05:06,829 --> 00:05:09,879 决定中信证券未来走向的关键了
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